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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODA All Right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: starting thirty five forty forty five fifty and the Kicks,

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Speaker 2: Black College Football World Stunners, Oh my goodness, please stumble,

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Speaker 2: and football the latter of.

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Speaker 1: Turn a Tyre on the episode J the lad a

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Speaker 1: Table off the Field the Night, By God, it's not

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Speaker 1: the size of the dog in the fighting, it's the.

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Speaker 2: Size of the fight in the all.

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Speaker 1: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 1: Campus Podcast. This is the Week four college football betting preview.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky, joining me as always my fellow BBOC co

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Speaker 1: host Colin Wilson. Got a lot to get to today.

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Speaker 1: We'll hit five marquee games. We'll do ten to twelve

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Speaker 1: more in the rundown. I'll have an extensive list of

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Speaker 1: trash again. We've got San Diego State going nowhere, fast football,

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Speaker 1: Colin talk in Arkansas. We'll hit some Friday night lights,

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Speaker 1: our favorite favorites, favorite underdogs. We got it all. Jam

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Speaker 1: Pack show will hit I don't know thirty games in total,

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Speaker 1: in hopefully a little over an hour.

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Speaker 2: Let's make an opening statement real quick. Yeah, if you

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Speaker 2: need to do a pumpkin patch or pumpkin spice latte,

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Speaker 2: coffee run with your significant other or your kids. Find

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Speaker 2: an eleven, two thirty or seven pm spot because next

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Speaker 2: week Bama, Georgia, right, Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame's coming

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Speaker 2: here to Fayetteville. I mean next week, you're not leaving

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Speaker 2: the couch for fourteen hours. If you have to find

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Speaker 2: a spot to get away with your family, try to

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Speaker 2: find a two hour window this weekend, because next weekend

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Speaker 2: is going to be loaded.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Fortune, I'm very fortunate that I'll never have to

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Speaker 1: worry about that.

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Speaker 2: It on the way.

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Speaker 1: But like our my wife's a better she knows what

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Speaker 1: she got into. Like she's doing her baby shower in October,

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Speaker 1: and I'm going to it. I don't know. It's gonna

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Speaker 1: be like just all of our friends. It's just a

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Speaker 1: it's just a.

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Speaker 2: Do. And why are we not betting on the pool?

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Speaker 2: Why is there not a pool?

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Speaker 1: Oh? There will be? Uh? Do do do Christmas Day?

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Speaker 1: Are yeah?

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 1: But we're just doing a football watch along at the bar.

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Speaker 2: Could you imagine having to hold your brand new child

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Speaker 2: and watch the Hawaii Bowl in the in the in

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Speaker 2: the in the room, your wife is trying to recover

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Speaker 2: in that's the sweats.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I might have, Yeah, the Hawaii bulls on I

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Speaker 1: might have to get someone to go for me if

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Speaker 1: it's I'm just kidding, all right, all right. Uh. By

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Speaker 1: the way, if you use Twitter and you have it yet,

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Speaker 1: be sure to check out and use at Playbook. It's

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Speaker 1: a new betting bot from Action. You guys are crushing it.

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Speaker 1: It's being used so much and it's so easy that

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Speaker 1: it just takes out all the manual work. When you

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Speaker 1: want to bet, you can just reply to someone's bet

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Speaker 1: slip or just tell that Playbookay, make this slip. It'll

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Speaker 1: reply to you and then you just click the link.

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Speaker 1: It'll take it your book and it'll be there already.

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Speaker 1: And we'll also have a quick slip link in the

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Speaker 1: video and podcast description where you can find and tail

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Speaker 1: some of the bets we discussed in today's episode, or

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Speaker 1: you can visit Action network dot com slash bet now.

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Speaker 1: Oh and also one last plug, well two plug. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say the Action Network podcast Raybaud and I do

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Speaker 1: every week NFL that's always out the day before this.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you check that out. We just did week three,

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Speaker 1: which I always love in the NFL. And then I'm

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Speaker 1: also the new cast the Favorites podcast, which is returned

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Speaker 1: with the new lineup episodes Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday with Kendrick

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Speaker 1: Middleton and Brandon Kravitz, Bet Stories, all sorts of fun

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Speaker 1: stuff NFL based wherever you get your podcasts. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's before we dive into it. Board of Transparency, how

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Speaker 1: do we do? Last week? We went three and two

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Speaker 1: in the agree Our losses were Florida plus seven and

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Speaker 1: a half and EMU plus twenty four and a half

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Speaker 1: like unbelievable, should have been five and oh like, talk

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Speaker 1: about two of the most painful losses on the board

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Speaker 1: that deserve to get there.

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Speaker 2: I'd love for someone at PFF to reach out to me.

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Speaker 2: They graded DJ Lagway seven turnover worthy plays on Sunday

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Speaker 2: and then on Monday flipped a six turnover worthy plays.

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Speaker 2: It's like they went and regraded him after they watched

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Speaker 2: him again. But it was horrible. That really cost us

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Speaker 2: a good day on the Board of Transparency.

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Speaker 1: Yep, but still a winning day forty twenty eight and

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Speaker 1: one overall fifty eight point eight percent. Trash went three

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Speaker 1: and three thanks to that EMU and the Tulsa mel

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Speaker 1: really should have been like five and one. But sometimes

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Speaker 1: you get the break, sometimes you don't. Twenty six and

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Speaker 1: seventeen overall in trash over the two years, that's sixty

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Speaker 1: and a half percent. And then head to head you

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Speaker 1: got on the board with Oklahoma. It's now two to one,

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Speaker 1: although I think I have one in my pocket with

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Speaker 1: Clemson not to win the ACC.

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Speaker 2: You're begging on that for the rest of the year.

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Speaker 1: Yes, all right, let's get into the Marquee games. It's

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Speaker 1: another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out the

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Speaker 1: marquee matchups will all end up bedding for Week four.

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Speaker 1: Let's start out West ten Am Local kick Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: at Utah. By the way, if I hear anyone else

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Speaker 1: say the altitude is going to be an advantage, it's not.

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Speaker 1: It's Salt Lake City's like forty five hundred feet Lubbick.

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Speaker 1: People don't realize the Lubbock's like thirty five hundred feet

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Speaker 1: Lubbock is pretty high altitude. So I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: going to be a major issue. I do think it

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Speaker 1: might be, I don't know. I mean, like the travel

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Speaker 1: and then the early kick, it's it's weird.

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Speaker 2: It's a quieter rice ecles.

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Speaker 1: That's where, like Utah is one of the biggest home

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Speaker 1: field advantages in all of college football. Part of that

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Speaker 1: is elevation that's damper to you. That's dampened a bit

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Speaker 1: because Texas Tech is at like thirty five hundred feet

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Speaker 1: and this isn't wyoming at like seven thousand feet in Laramie.

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Speaker 1: And then this is in at night where you know

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Speaker 1: it's insane, So ten am maybe it's a little more

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Speaker 1: of a subdued crowd. I'm sure the Utah fans will

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Speaker 1: still get after it a bit and be out there

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Speaker 1: in full force, but I don't know. I think it

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Speaker 1: might work in Texas Tech's favor a bit, and it

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Speaker 1: might not be as great of a home field advantage

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Speaker 1: as usual. This is a really fascinating gave. Utah is

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Speaker 1: a three point favorite here. One of the reasons that's

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Speaker 1: fascinating is because these are the two co favorites as

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Speaker 1: of right now, the two favorites to win the Big Twelve.

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Speaker 1: So this game could end up deciding who goes there,

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Speaker 1: who goes to the Big Twelve Championship, who ultimately goes

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Speaker 1: to the College Football playoff. Also, we still have un

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Speaker 1: answered questions about both teams because, let's be frank, neither

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Speaker 1: of them have played anybody. So they look good, the

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Speaker 1: metrics look good, the additions that they brought in, and

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Speaker 1: the off season looked good. But you know, like UCLA Utah,

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Speaker 1: I played Ucla that was supposed to be like the

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Speaker 1: best data points, but that's a meaningless state of point. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: after you lose by thirty five at home through New Mexico.

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Speaker 1: So it's hard to really dig into a lot of

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Speaker 1: the advanced metrics and say, Okay, this is what I

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Speaker 1: can really get from these teams. I will say, like

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Speaker 1: I do think Texas Tech hitting the portal with their

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Speaker 1: defensive line that they brought in. I also know I'm

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Speaker 1: pretty confident that Utah is one of the best offensive

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Speaker 1: lines in all of college football, a couple of future

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Speaker 1: pros at tackles, so that matchup in the trenches is

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Speaker 1: going to be fascinating. These are two and I also

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Speaker 1: Morton has looked fantastic. He's healthy. These are two polar

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Speaker 1: opposite attacks. You have Utah that wants to run it

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Speaker 1: with damp, pier different formations, and then Texas Tech, which

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Speaker 1: is more of a pass heavy air raid based offense,

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Speaker 1: which at times has given Utah man heavy scheme problems

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Speaker 1: in the past. Number there was like USC teams, the

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Speaker 1: weakness for Texas Tech, in my opinion, is their corners,

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Speaker 1: but the weakness for Utah's offense is their wide receivers.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot of like just hey, the weakness

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Speaker 1: on weakness, strength on strength.

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Speaker 2: Mirroring stats definitely, Yeah, and so and.

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Speaker 1: The Utah secondary, which I did have some questions about,

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Speaker 1: Like their linebackers are excellent that I haven't really been

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Speaker 1: tested yet, so we'll see. They have a couple of

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Speaker 1: experienced guys, but they lost some talent from that secondary

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Speaker 1: last year. How do you make sense of this game?

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Speaker 1: What are you seeing? I could see it getting off

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Speaker 1: those slow start, Yeah, because these teams are like, all right,

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Speaker 1: let's feel each other out early kick so and then

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Speaker 1: it gets going. So the live over might be worth

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Speaker 1: of luck. But what are you seeing here?

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Speaker 2: That's what I wanted. I wanted the over in this game.

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Speaker 2: I actually project this well above what the market is at.

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Speaker 2: And a lot of that is not just Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: being twenty two seconds per play, but Utah has really

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Speaker 2: increased their tempo. Also, they're twenty six seconds per play,

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Speaker 2: and I think when you look at what they are

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Speaker 2: as an offense, it's really Devin damp here and he's done,

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Speaker 2: you know, pretty much what we thought that he was

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Speaker 2: going to do. He's you know, creating you know, unbelievable

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Speaker 2: amount of yards. Nearly half of Devin Dampier's yards have

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Speaker 2: come after first contact. I think Wazoo transfer Waean Parker

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Speaker 2: should probably get some more carries. He's really showing it

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Speaker 2: yards after first first contact force miss tackles. This is

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Speaker 2: the number one most efficient rushing team in the nation

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Speaker 2: and eleventh in line yards. But I kind of hold

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Speaker 2: back on that because Texas Tech strength of schedules like

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Speaker 2: dead last and FBS and Utah is one hundred and nineteenth.

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Speaker 2: I mean, these two have been playing cupcakes all day.

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Speaker 1: So it's like they take care of business as they

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Speaker 1: should have.

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Speaker 2: But it's all on the ground, not through the air, right.

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Speaker 1: And so explosedness through the air for Utah so far.

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Speaker 2: Utah's divas those seventy third coverage grading. So what I

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Speaker 2: do is when I have strength of schedules that are

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Speaker 2: so poor and so bad, I go through all the

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Speaker 2: stats and I figure out which one are you lacking it?

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Speaker 2: And if you're lacking in it, why are you lacking

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Speaker 2: in it against this schedule? Well, Utah is seventy third

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Speaker 2: coverage grading per PFF. That's good for Baron Morton who's

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Speaker 2: just absolutely lighting it up against who Oregon State, UAPB

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Speaker 2: Kent State thousand yards, six big time throws, one turnover

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Speaker 2: worthy play. So I mean Utah has their issues and

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Speaker 2: standard downs explosives, but Texas Tech defense has had major

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Speaker 2: issues like one hundred and thirtieth in standard downs explosives allowed.

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Speaker 2: Both of these defenses are allowing explosive plays to their

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Speaker 2: respective You know Utah is going to get the rush in.

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Speaker 2: I think Devin dan Pierre's gonna explode. I think Baron

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Speaker 2: Morton's gonna explode. But I'm like you eleven am nine

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Speaker 2: am kick locally. I don't think they come out guns

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Speaker 2: blazon in the first quarter. So I want the over

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Speaker 2: in this game. I project it up in the sixties,

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Speaker 2: but I don't want to touch it until they're awake.

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Speaker 2: So I'm still kind of how do I play this?

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Speaker 1: I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I make a Utah MINEUS five. I would play if

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Speaker 2: I had to play the side, I play Utah. But

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Speaker 2: I'm mean they're gonna play pregame over or live over.

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Speaker 1: My gut is telling me Tech is the side like I,

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Speaker 1: but I don't have much confidence in it. Like I

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Speaker 1: think that these I have Tech slightly power arated ahead

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Speaker 1: of Utah.

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Speaker 2: They're tackling, which is good you have to against Devin

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Speaker 2: dan Pier.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that they have the better roster overall,

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Speaker 1: but I also don't trust Maguire on the road. Like,

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Speaker 1: so the coaching edge goes to Utah, utub the Tech

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Speaker 1: the special teams, my edge might go to Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: U TuS kicker missed a bunch of kicks against Wyoming,

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Speaker 1: which is noteworthy. But how I think this, like how

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Speaker 1: I'm seeing this play out is I think Texas Tech's

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Speaker 1: defensive line can like just neutralize the Utah offensign, Like

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Speaker 1: that'll be a battle that they can They can at

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Speaker 1: least hold their own. They're not going to get bowled over.

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Speaker 1: Now that the tempo is interesting because Utah might want

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Speaker 1: to go faster because Tech likes to rotate a lot

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Speaker 1: of their defensive linemen. So uh, that might be a

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Speaker 1: strategy that Utah employees. But I don't think Utah can

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Speaker 1: exploit the Tech corners and their safeties and linebackers are

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Speaker 1: really good, so they can help with the run. They

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Speaker 1: can you know, guys like Rodriguez, they can just give

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Speaker 1: dedicate all their attention to Dan Pierre and using his legs.

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Speaker 1: And I still don't fully trust him to beat a

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Speaker 1: team with just with his arm, especially with these receivers.

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Speaker 1: And on the other end, I'm not fully sold on

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Speaker 1: the Utah secondary. I don't think I agree that Tech's

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Speaker 1: gonna have a ton of success running it. But Morton

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Speaker 1: I think can He's I mean, he looks really good

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Speaker 1: with him and these receivers, I think that they can

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Speaker 1: do enough through the air, So I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: think I'm leaning Tech. But like I said, this is

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Speaker 1: like a huge skit of data points. It won't be

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Speaker 1: a big bet, but I might take the three. I

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Speaker 1: might wait to bet it live. This should be a

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Speaker 1: back and forth game.

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Speaker 2: If I if I had a prop to bit, I

252
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Speaker 2: do Jacoby Williams out of the backfield with receiving yards,

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Speaker 2: He's been unbelievably productive from an explosive perspective. I think

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Speaker 2: he's the third leading in targets for Texas Tech. Koby

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Speaker 2: Williams has been a mad man out of the backfield,

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Speaker 2: and I think that's what they're gonna do here a

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Speaker 2: lot against Utah.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to the SEC. Talk a little.

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Speaker 1: Auburn at Oklahoma. This is the Jackson Arnold revenge game

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Speaker 1: as he returns to Norman. Oklahoma has taken some money

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Speaker 1: here since open.

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Speaker 2: I have four and a half on it, but I

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Speaker 2: can't believe it's up to seven.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, up to seven, seven and a half at some places.

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Speaker 1: Total has been plummeting, which I think makes some sense

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Speaker 1: given the familiarity of schemes venables, familiarity with Jackson Arnold

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Speaker 1: and his strengths and weaknesses. But I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: can't get to the under now. I'd worry about the

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Speaker 1: pace of this game.

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Speaker 2: I also worry, like here's I don't think that well,

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Speaker 2: you have to that Auburn's Auburn can't tackle my tier too.

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Speaker 2: That's a that that could be a problem.

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Speaker 1: Alburn's tackling has been a major issue. Auburn has injuries,

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Speaker 1: like losing Crawford. It looks like Carford's not gonna play

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Speaker 1: at corner as big. They have injuries at corner, like

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Speaker 1: the true freshman's gonna have to get some big reps here.

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Speaker 1: So unless like guys like Falk, like the Oklahoma offensive

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Speaker 1: line is their weakness on the whole team, and they've

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Speaker 1: had injuries and they have freshmen in there, and they've

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Speaker 1: got different guys. Also, are Mason Thomas Oklahoma one of

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Speaker 1: the best spenders. He's out for the first half. Like,

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Speaker 1: can guys like Falk just get so much penetration and

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Speaker 1: dominate this offensive line? That's I think Auburn's best path.

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Speaker 1: I don't. I can't see Auburn running it against this.

285
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Speaker 1: Like their offensive line is really good, but the Oklahoma

286
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Speaker 1: defensive front is good, the linebackers are good. Venables is

287
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Speaker 1: not gonna let Arnold run it here, so they're gonna

288
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Speaker 1: like Darren the throw that. Like there's some variants there

289
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Speaker 1: because Oklahoma's corners, like this kid Guillory looks really good

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Speaker 1: but then been tested like Michigan has no receivers. They

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Speaker 1: didn't even tried it, like they weren't doing anything, and

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Speaker 1: then it was like Temple and FCS school, Auburn has

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Speaker 1: really good receivers. The question is Ken Arnold actually hit

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Speaker 1: them and throw and do it like. So that's a

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Speaker 1: major question mark for me, the injuries in the secondary

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Speaker 1: and how Auburn's secondary is. Look, I think might swing

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Speaker 1: this to in Oklahoma's way, but this is getting pretty

298
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Speaker 1: expensive the totals come down. I mean, eventually this total

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Speaker 1: is going to get down to a point where I

300
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Speaker 1: might look at the over what are you seeing here?

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Speaker 2: I disagree with your I agree with everything you said

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Speaker 2: except your assessment of the market. I make this Oklahoma

303
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Speaker 2: minus eight. I would still play it at seven. I

304
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Speaker 2: think Oklahoma is that good, and I think Auburn's defense

305
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Speaker 2: is a fraud. So a couple of things to back

306
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Speaker 2: up those.

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Speaker 1: Run these legit but Oklahoma can't really run it, so

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Speaker 1: like that doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 2: Baylor hit thirteen passes of at least twelve yards against this.

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Speaker 1: Baylor attacked, so you have to think that that's how

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma's gonna attack.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly where Dion Burks, Isaiah Satana, That's exactly where

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Speaker 2: Materia is coming in here.

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Speaker 1: It looks like Lewis is going to play Yeah, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, assuming Stania's hands show up to the game. You know,

316
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Speaker 2: South Alabama, this is the other thing that bothers me

317
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Speaker 2: about Auburn. South Alabama generated a methodical drive that is

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Speaker 2: a ten play drive on almost every single possession against Auburn.

319
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Speaker 2: That is disgusting. The national average is creating one point

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Speaker 2: five methodical drives per game, and South Alabama nearly did

321
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Speaker 2: it on every single possession. Auburn's outside the top one

322
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Speaker 2: hundred defensive rush success rate passing EPA. Explosives were coming

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Speaker 2: in standard downs, passing downs. They're getting torn up by everybody.

324
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Speaker 2: And maybe it's just so the Baylor's offense. It's like

325
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Speaker 2: an Arkansas. Maybe the Baylor offense is really good and

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Speaker 2: the defense is really bad, and that Auburn just played

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Speaker 2: to that. In the first game. We kind of got

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Speaker 2: a misconception about who they were, So I think ou

329
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Speaker 2: you know, their top fifty and both success rate both

330
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Speaker 2: rush and pass, they're just top forty and finishing drives.

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Speaker 2: The offense is not near where I thought it would

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Speaker 2: be at this point, stuck. I thought it'd be a

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Speaker 2: little bit more Eleaite with Matier there, But their top

334
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Speaker 2: four targets have been very, very good, fifty nine catches

335
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Speaker 2: each one of them averages at least twelve point one

336
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Speaker 2: yards per catch. Matier is hitting targets and they are

337
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Speaker 2: making plays happen no matter who those top four targets are.

338
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Speaker 2: I think the OU defense has been elite with venables,

339
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Speaker 2: he's been focusing solely on that side of the ball.

340
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Speaker 2: They have the second best pass defense in regards of

341
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Speaker 2: success rate in the entire nation, and they've generated a

342
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Speaker 2: top twenty rank in quality and finishing drives. Now their

343
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Speaker 2: strength of schedules fifty ninth. They could have played better offenses,

344
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Speaker 2: you know, like with Michigan and Temple and such, but

345
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Speaker 2: for the tests that they've been up against, they've looked

346
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Speaker 2: really really good. Solid. Yeah. Third downs, Oh, he's only

347
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Speaker 2: allowed seven of forty one to be converted. I know

348
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Speaker 2: the offense are gonna you can point it on, but

349
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Speaker 2: that is a nice mark. Seven to forty one third

350
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Speaker 2: downs allowed. It's good.

351
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Speaker 1: Yeah, their defense is elite. The only questions I have

352
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Speaker 1: is like just the corners, like Gillary, look, he looks

353
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Speaker 1: really good, he looks the part, but they just dam

354
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Speaker 1: haven't been tested by receivers like this. But then again,

355
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,159
Speaker 1: is Arnold going to be capable enough to hit them consistently?

356
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Speaker 1: I do think the biggest matchup advantage will be the

357
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Speaker 1: Oklahoma wide receivers against the Auburn secondary, which isn't at

358
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Speaker 1: full strength. Athough it looks like Anthony jamp Anthony's gonna

359
00:18:15,760 --> 00:18:19,120
Speaker 1: come back, which might help a bit, but not having

360
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Speaker 1: Crawford is big and he might get, like they say,

361
00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 1: his game time decision. I don't think he's gonna play.

362
00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,520
Speaker 2: Venables is going to know exactly where to put pressure

363
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Speaker 2: on the offensive line. He's going to know exactly if

364
00:18:30,760 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 2: Jackson Arnold can get to a second third progression. Venables

365
00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:35,879
Speaker 2: is going to tailor make this defense this week for

366
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Speaker 2: Jackson Arnold.

367
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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Auburn offensive line is very good, so they

368
00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 1: have that working for them. But yeah, you're right, that

369
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 1: is I think an advantage, a major advantage for Venables.

370
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Speaker 1: A very good chess match between Venables and Freeze here.

371
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,680
Speaker 1: Like I said, the one weakness it could be that

372
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 1: Oklahoma secondary which hasn't been tested. So Arnold's going to

373
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Speaker 1: be good and going have to be good through the air.

374
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Speaker 1: And then how Auburn can slow down this offense is

375
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Speaker 1: their defensive line has to be amazing. Guys like Falk

376
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,199
Speaker 1: have to blow everything up. Because I just don't think

377
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Speaker 1: that they're going to be able to cover consistently or

378
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 1: tackle consistently on the back end. I make it five

379
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:20,120
Speaker 1: to three. So but with like some of the injuries

380
00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 1: matchups of venables thing, I can see shading this to

381
00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:26,639
Speaker 1: like six or so. But now I can't get involved

382
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,320
Speaker 1: with I might look over.

383
00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 2: Do you want to go on the board at seven?

384
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 1: Now I did. There's there's matchup things that I don't.

385
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 2: Like just checking, so we'll get something on the board.

386
00:19:39,359 --> 00:19:41,199
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, well we'll get a bunch on the board here.

387
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,800
Speaker 1: Let's go to Florida Miami. This is I mean, I

388
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,600
Speaker 1: can't believe Florida let us down last week. Big rivalry

389
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:50,280
Speaker 1: game here, Miami's a seven and a half point favorite.

390
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:55,440
Speaker 1: Total fifty one fifty one and a half. Fifty and

391
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:56,760
Speaker 1: a half to fifty one and a half is where

392
00:19:56,760 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 1: you can find out there. I wanted to back. I

393
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,240
Speaker 1: wanted to go back right to Florida. Yeah right, these

394
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:07,520
Speaker 1: kids show up, it's a Florida Miami game. They they

395
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 1: didn't quit on Billion Aper last week, they didn't quit

396
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,600
Speaker 1: on him last year. They're going to show up for

397
00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,720
Speaker 1: this game. So I was all ready to back Florida

398
00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:19,200
Speaker 1: here catching over a touchdown. But there's just there's just

399
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,880
Speaker 1: too many things I don't like, uh, And I guess

400
00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:25,159
Speaker 1: there is a chance that like they're just they do

401
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: check out a bit, and it's like they had that

402
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,439
Speaker 1: war against USF and then they had that war against

403
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 1: LSU and that like this is Meanwhile, Miami had a

404
00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:34,679
Speaker 1: bye and then rolled USF. So like they're gonna come

405
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:38,000
Speaker 1: in here much healthier, much pressure. Here's some of the

406
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: matchup things. I don't like. Kayden Jones, who got his

407
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,960
Speaker 1: first start at right tackle for Bryce Lovet, who was

408
00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 1: really struggling. He wasn't great. Well, that's problematic. Go the

409
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 1: rest of the Florida offensive line is awesome, but that's

410
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,760
Speaker 1: problematic going up against Bain and Mesador. That could just

411
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: ruin everything for what Florida wants to do. Florida's also

412
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: not getting any pressure at all, and they lost Caleb Banks.

413
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 1: That was one of the reasons I liked Florida. We

414
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 1: still showed a card, but he got hurt. He didn't

415
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 1: play the second half. His first round draft pick. He's

416
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:09,720
Speaker 1: out for the year, so that's huge. And they don't

417
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: have mccraye. He's hurt. Like they were gonna recount on him.

418
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,399
Speaker 1: So this defensive line is is not gonna get pressure

419
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,480
Speaker 1: and they probably weren' gonna get preusure anyway against Miami,

420
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 1: which means and look, the Florida's linebackers and defensive linemen

421
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 1: across the border have been really good against the run.

422
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 1: Like they've been really good against the run, but they're

423
00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:31,440
Speaker 1: not getting pressure and and like their secondary can be

424
00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 1: attacked and that's gonna have all day. And these Miami

425
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: receivers are good and they're gonna get open and that's

426
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: gonna hit him on the other side of the ball.

427
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:44,159
Speaker 1: The way to attack this Miami defense is you have

428
00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 1: to attack this secondary. Like it's better, but that's still

429
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,359
Speaker 1: like the weak point. Like they're still really good against

430
00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 1: the run. Their pass rush is really good, so like

431
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,080
Speaker 1: you got a block, So like that right tackle is

432
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,760
Speaker 1: an issue. You can't you can't, Like from what I've seen,

433
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 1: you're not gonna be able to run on Miami.

434
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: And when you shut down the Notre Dames rush attack,

435
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: that's impressive.

436
00:22:01,800 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 1: Yes, So Ken lagway do that. I don't know is

437
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 1: he hurt? Is he just because he didn't get reps

438
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 1: and he was during the summer. But this offense looks lost.

439
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,960
Speaker 1: I mean they only scored what sixteen against South Florida

440
00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 1: and Lagway his biggest strengths of deep ball. He's one

441
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 1: of seven with three picks on deep balls this year.

442
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: He's always struggled with his footwork and reading defenses in

443
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 1: the intermediary range. I mean last year he had three

444
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,840
Speaker 1: touchdowns seven interceptions in the intermediary range. So what's Miami

445
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,680
Speaker 1: gonna do here? What's heaven we're gonna do? You're gonna

446
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: see a ton of too deep and then disguise stuff underneath.

447
00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 1: So they're gonna play like shell like, hey, if you're

448
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:37,600
Speaker 1: not going to get the deep ball, and then we're

449
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,560
Speaker 1: going to confuse you into some of these intermediary throats

450
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: and oh guess what Baine or Messtor might be breathing

451
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 1: down your neck. And Lagway might just be mentally, he

452
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:51,199
Speaker 1: might have no confidence, he might not be fully healthy.

453
00:22:52,080 --> 00:22:54,359
Speaker 1: I don't know. They really do miss Dallas. They need

454
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 1: Dallas Wilson at wide receiver. Start of that stinks and

455
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 1: he's out there playing the whole game. Eugene Wilson doesn't

456
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,760
Speaker 1: look like the same with all his injuries. Maybe he's

457
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:07,680
Speaker 1: not so ball is good, but like so, I don't

458
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: know if I can get there undermakes sense to me?

459
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: What are you seeing in Florida? Miami?

460
00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, you know when when you're sturt of

461
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 2: it and you get out of UCLA, like he's just

462
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,639
Speaker 2: cruising now, right, you know. I watch about sixty minutes

463
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:28,159
Speaker 2: of Lagway of tape on Lagway, and the analysis I

464
00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 2: got out of it was what you said, footwork, body mechanics.

465
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 2: Is he's throwing off wrong foots, one of his wrong feet,

466
00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:39,679
Speaker 2: whatever foot. And if you go and look at the numbers,

467
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 2: one of the most impressive stats I've ever seen is

468
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: that the Florida offensive line is fourth and pass blocking

469
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:47,520
Speaker 2: per PFF, but their offense is one hundred and twenty eight.

470
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,919
Speaker 2: Then havoc allowed. How is the offensive line not allowing

471
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 2: anyone to get through in this offense? Hundred twenty eight the.

472
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 1: Other team, And it's the right tackle, the right tackles

473
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: that weak spot, which like Miami could You could block

474
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: everyone else at a lead level and Miami could just

475
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: ruin it right there. Like I'm sure they're gonna have

476
00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: to get help. And he's misdirection and stuff.

477
00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 2: But well, that's got to be.

478
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: Offensive line is elite.

479
00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:11,399
Speaker 2: It's got to be a part of it. That the

480
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 2: fact that Lagway can't deal with a right tackle being missing.

481
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 2: Because the numbers that I pulled his pressure A last

482
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,359
Speaker 2: year was thirty three percent, this year's twenty three percent.

483
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: That's not the problem. All six of his I t's

484
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,160
Speaker 2: came in its non blitz defensive attempts.

485
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're just dropped. They're taking away the explosive, confusing

486
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,359
Speaker 1: him and he can't. He's not he's not reading defenses

487
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 1: right now, and his footworks off and then he just

488
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:37,160
Speaker 1: he lost. He literally went into a drunken stupor.

489
00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,159
Speaker 2: In that game. I'm gonna say this, I don't want

490
00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 2: you to float off your chair and shine and all

491
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: this shit. But half of his turnover worthy plays last

492
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 2: year came against LSU. What if there's just a Blake

493
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 2: Baker problem. What if he just can't figure out LSU's defense.

494
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 1: Yes, but he also had some good plays in that

495
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 1: game and they won that game.

496
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:57,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, but he may have His turnover worthy plays came

497
00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,560
Speaker 2: in LSU's game last year too. So I'm just wondering

498
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,399
Speaker 2: if it's just to think with Baker, which would make

499
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 2: you pretty happy. But there's a there's a DJ Lagway problem.

500
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: And the thing is, if you're going to buy Florida

501
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 2: right now, it's seven and a half as the Sharper

502
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: book out of eight. You're just trickling in on the

503
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: fact that he fixes whatever is wrong with his feet,

504
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,119
Speaker 2: his mechanics, his arm, and the pressures coming in from

505
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 2: the right side. Because the rest of the offense has

506
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 2: actually put up pretty okay numbers, they're.

507
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: Not as good as we thought they were going to be,

508
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: Like because the Wilson injury, the other Wilson injury star

509
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: a Van has been a PLoP that hasn't helped.

510
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: And I tell you what going up against what Corey

511
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 2: Heatherman has done to this defense, and I think you

512
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 2: know I've been singing the praises their top twenty five

513
00:25:38,200 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 2: and a half havoc. Reuben Bain has been all part

514
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 2: that for Miami. He's already a double digit pressures, double

515
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 2: digit and tackles. Miami neutralized the rush offenses of South Florida,

516
00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,040
Speaker 2: Notre Dame. That's that's clean, that's that is that is

517
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 2: a betting deliverable. There have been some explosves in the air,

518
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: so You're right. The Bulls and the Irish both had

519
00:25:56,280 --> 00:26:00,719
Speaker 2: ten passes over fifteen yards, so I think it's important

520
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,159
Speaker 2: to know that it's going to have to come through

521
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 2: the air. Can Florida do that? I'm not so confident,

522
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 2: not even if Lagway gets it cleaned up, but the

523
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:11,200
Speaker 2: targets that he's hitting, so you know, I think there's

524
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 2: something else that we need to mention if you're going

525
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 2: to back Miami here, something that would make me nervous.

526
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 2: They only miss ten tackles total against Notre Dame and

527
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 2: Bethune Cookman, and then I think they just took the

528
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,359
Speaker 2: week off against South Alabama. They missed fourteen tackles against

529
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 2: South Florida. Sorry, against South Florida, they missed fourteen tackles,

530
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 2: so I'm not sure if they just took the week off.

531
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: But the defense has some issues tackling the Bulls, so

532
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 2: we'll see how that turns out. Now, for me, the

533
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:40,560
Speaker 2: bet is malachay TONI by far. If you look at

534
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 2: how Florida has been attacked, the most targets are the

535
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 2: most explosive plays. We're hitting the slot receivers on the

536
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,840
Speaker 2: middle of the Florida defense. If you go and look

537
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 2: at USF, and you go and look at everybody that's

538
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 2: played against Florida LSU. It's all come on the slot.

539
00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 2: Malachay Toni lines up in the slot. That's exactly where

540
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: he was used against Notre Dame. I don't know what

541
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 2: number I would play Florida at. I think I think

542
00:27:04,119 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 2: this is gonna get steamed. I think it's gonna blow

543
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 2: through eight to take a lot of.

544
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:10,560
Speaker 1: Money last week. I don't know if everyone is out

545
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 1: on them. I don't know. This might be a pass

546
00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 1: for me too much.

547
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 2: Play a Malachai Tony prop That's what I would do.

548
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 2: For everybody receiving her. I want to kick their ass.

549
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: This is why you came to Miami.

550
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 2: That's why you wanted to be a hurricane.

551
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,800
Speaker 1: Big ten Illinois at Indiana. Indiana out to a six

552
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,359
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, opened soft opens at two

553
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: and a half total, down a couple points to fifty

554
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: two and a half. This can will be primetime NBC

555
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 1: seven thirty Eastern Top twenty matchup between Illinois and Indiana.

556
00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: I think the first time ever these two teams are

557
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 1: faced off in football while both being ranked the.

558
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 2: First Signetti and Brett Milama event here ought to be

559
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:50,359
Speaker 2: pretty good.

560
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 1: Yes, uh, the market is taken off here. I wanted

561
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: Indiana first half, and now because it's taken off, I'm

562
00:27:58,080 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to get a three or better.

563
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: So if this comes back, I assume you might get

564
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 1: some buyback on Illinois at some point. I don't know.

565
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,080
Speaker 1: I mean it's it was pretty sharp money in Indiana

566
00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: because it's yeah, I can tell you that. But yeah,

567
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: so I wanted in Indiana minus three first half. I

568
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: Illinois been getting off the slow starts. They've made some

569
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:25,880
Speaker 1: good adjustments in the second I half to really experience

570
00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 1: roster and staff that know each other well. I expected this.

571
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 1: This crowd is going to be juiced. I think they

572
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 1: can feed off of that. So, but this is this

573
00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:38,960
Speaker 1: game's hard to project because Indiana's played three little Sisters

574
00:28:39,000 --> 00:28:41,239
Speaker 1: of the Poor. I love everything they're doing. I love

575
00:28:41,320 --> 00:28:44,720
Speaker 1: the roster. I think they're a better team than Illinois. Like,

576
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: for example, Bbe is out for the year. Their running

577
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: back was really good. I like, but they still have

578
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 1: a pretty deep running back room. We like Mendoza. I

579
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 1: love their defense, like their their weakness at the end

580
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:58,800
Speaker 1: of last year's that left guard after Evan's got hurt,

581
00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: but he's back and playing well well, So this team

582
00:29:01,880 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 1: looks really good. Like this looks like a top yeah

583
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen team to May, I think Illinois is

584
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:09,440
Speaker 1: probably like a top twenty to twenty five team. Can

585
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 1: I only six and a half? No I wanted first half.

586
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,240
Speaker 1: I'm hoping it comes back. What he's seeing here between

587
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: Indiana and Illinois.

588
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: Well, Indiana is the number one defensive havoc team so far,

589
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 2: and I know that comes against a schedule that includes

590
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 2: literally Indiana State Kittus on Odu. What makes me nervous

591
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: about the Indiana offense is the old Dominion was plus

592
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 2: one point three yards per play better than Indiana. Maybe

593
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 2: that was just a week one issue, but maybe that's

594
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,000
Speaker 2: one of these Indiana starts off slow. You're right, they

595
00:29:37,040 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 2: do start off slow. And Odu looked pretty good in

596
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 2: the box score against Indiana and then you know, eventually

597
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 2: went and beat the hell out of Virginia Tech. But

598
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 2: the Illinois offensive line has given up twenty eight pressures

599
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:50,719
Speaker 2: on ninety three dropbacks from Luke Altmeyer so far.

600
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: He's going to be the weak area. And in this

601
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:57,280
Speaker 1: whole game, I was so experienced this offensive line is

602
00:29:58,040 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: not elite.

603
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 2: Almeyer has not produced a big time throw in Illinois

604
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 2: two FBS games.

605
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: He also hasn't thrown a tournament worthy play, to be fair, which.

606
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 2: Is I know we've been counting on those. But I

607
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 2: lean Indiana and I lean Over in this game, and

608
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 2: I think maybe Indiana team total over is where I'm

609
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:16,200
Speaker 2: gonna settle on in the middle, because you're right the

610
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: numbers taking off. I project this at two. I still

611
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 2: would have bought this at three, but now we're up

612
00:30:20,600 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 2: at there's six and a half at FanDuel like, where

613
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: are we going here?

614
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 1: Is?

615
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 2: Like is everybody dead for Illinois? So I'm gonna go

616
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 2: a team totally on Indiana over.

617
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 1: I'm at. I'm in Indiana minus five point four, So

618
00:30:37,920 --> 00:30:41,480
Speaker 1: I agree with the move I wanted first half three

619
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: or better. I'm in. I'll have Indiana in some form

620
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,960
Speaker 1: or fashion in the first half or game. If this

621
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 1: comes back a bit, all right, but we're gonna learn

622
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: a lot about this Indiana and some of the changes

623
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: because we do. We just haven't seen them against anyone

624
00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:01,400
Speaker 1: with a pulse. All right, Michigan at it's a big

625
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: one for corn.

626
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,160
Speaker 2: Time to take a bigger fight out of this court stalk.

627
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: Can we finally do it? Hoscars? Can we finally beat

628
00:31:08,840 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 1: a top twenty five team? Oh in twenty seven? Over

629
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:14,760
Speaker 1: the past twenty seven matchups first top twenty five thes

630
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 1: that hadn't beat a ranked Big ten opponent since twenty fifteen.

631
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,959
Speaker 1: The Nebraska pass defense has been elite. Their run defense

632
00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: is not because guess what, their interior defensive line taking

633
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: a big step back. Obviously that wasn't hard to guess

634
00:31:27,360 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 1: because they lost two NFL guys there. But their their

635
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: run dy has been very vulnerable. I mean since he

636
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: ran a thirty times for two two six point seven

637
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 1: yards per carry, Soresby ran it for about one hundred

638
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,400
Speaker 1: underwood legs. Are we unleashing them again here? The Michigan

639
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: run defense has been excellent, but their interior and their

640
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: defensive line isn't as dominant as was last year. Shocker.

641
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: Look at all the NFL guys they've lost. The Nebraska

642
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 1: offensive line. I really like they're really experienced. They've been

643
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 1: good in pass protection. I think there's only been like

644
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 1: railwa Is seventeen percent pressure rate, although they've only faced Acron, Houston,

645
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: Krish and Sincy and I watched Sincy against Bowling Green

646
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 1: and they couldn't get any pressure. Maybe a bit misleading,

647
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 1: but I do like the offensive line. I think the

648
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 1: weapons are upgraded. So what I think this comes down

649
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 1: to which team will have more success on early downs.

650
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 1: I know that's so generic to say, but if you

651
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 1: can because Nebraska's run d is struggle, so I think

652
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 1: that they're probably going to look more load the box

653
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 1: here and force Underwood to beat him because you're not

654
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: really scared of these receivers. And the Nebraska's secondary has

655
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: been excellent so far because if you can force Michigan

656
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:36,800
Speaker 1: into known obvious passing downs, you don't You're not scared

657
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: of their receivers like at all to make plays against

658
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 1: the secondary. But if they're able to consistently run and

659
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: stay out of the chains, and that's when you can

660
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: use Underwoods legs and it could be trouble. And then

661
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:49,760
Speaker 1: if it's Nebraska that's behind the sticks, way can bring

662
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: pressure force Rayola into a mistake. He does struggle under pressure,

663
00:32:53,080 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 1: although he's pretty good against the blitz. It's more like

664
00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: when you play coverage and you get natural pressure. Michigan

665
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 1: already playing at Oklahoma helped. You know, the true freshmen

666
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: already went to Oklahoma. Will they open it up more now?

667
00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 1: I would assume that they learned from that. I do

668
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 1: think Michigan should have more success running it, but ken

669
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 1: it finished drives. I do trust the Nebraska passing attack more.

670
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: And if we're talking about late downs because of that datadvantage,

671
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: like on the season, Nebraska sixty two percent on third

672
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: downs Michigan forty four, that might end up being the difference.

673
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: This new Michigan offensive line versus the new Nebraska defensive

674
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 1: line is a matchup to watch. And Michigan has both

675
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,280
Speaker 1: their guards hurt. They might have new guards in there.

676
00:33:37,320 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 1: They had some new guards last week. They could get

677
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 1: Rod Moore back in the secondary as well. You know

678
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 1: all this to say I do make Nebraska the slightest

679
00:33:49,040 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 1: of favorites.

680
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:50,720
Speaker 2: Really wow?

681
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I'm lower on the market to the

682
00:33:53,320 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 1: Michigan Now, I am like really interested in watching this

683
00:33:57,160 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: game because if Underwood's going to run like that and

684
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 1: I just don't. I really do still trust this offensive line.

685
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: I don't trust the receivers. I think the defense like

686
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,560
Speaker 1: they should have got blown out by Oklahoma. But there's

687
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,719
Speaker 1: obviously some potential here for this team to rise because

688
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: of Underwood. They just need some other guys to emerge,

689
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: the offensive line to come together. Nebraska's kind of more

690
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: of a known commodity. But so I'm leaning the Breska.

691
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:26,040
Speaker 1: I get a three, I'm in on Nebraska. I'm in

692
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,960
Speaker 1: on that. And by the way, Nebraska special teams I

693
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,120
Speaker 1: think are better. The Breska of special teams are good.

694
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: They fixed that issue. So and Michigan's happened like some

695
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: issues with punts and even some kicking, some minor kicking issues.

696
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: So I lean Nebraska. They will be in my round. Robin,

697
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 1: I think, what are you saying here?

698
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,760
Speaker 2: I want Michigan pretty bad. I took over on open

699
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 2: it was a forty four and a half. I would

700
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 2: still play at forty six and a half.

701
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: I don't mind the over.

702
00:34:53,480 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I see advantages for both offenses here, but because

703
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 2: of what Michigan can expose, I favor them more in

704
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 2: this game. So, Bryce Underwood did have two turnover worthy

705
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: plays against Central Michigan, but I don't think that's going

706
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 2: to come into play here. And I love Biff Pogey

707
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 2: just absolutely running Central Michigan up a flag Pole sixty

708
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 2: three to three, like no Mercy Cobra Kai shit right.

709
00:35:15,640 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 2: I mean Bryce letter was ability to scramble has been

710
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 2: his best weapons so far and the best weapon you

711
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 2: know for the offense outside of Justice Hayes. I mean

712
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 2: he has eighty seven yards on scrambles last week, while

713
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: you know, creating scores Michigan typical heavy rush sixty percent

714
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 2: rad Justice Haynes is averaging three point eight after his

715
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,480
Speaker 2: first contact. The offensive line is fourteenth and stuff rate

716
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 2: you know that comes on a schedule that does include

717
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 2: Oklahoma's defense, and the defense has been high in success rate,

718
00:35:39,440 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 2: but the pass rush and the pass explosives have just

719
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: not been in the top fifty. So there are some

720
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 2: holes here on the defense. So far, John Metier created

721
00:35:46,120 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: seven explosive passes against the Wolverines, Ken Dylan Rayola produced

722
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 2: the same. I'm not sure there's red zone issues here

723
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: for Michigan. Half of the opponent's attempts have been touchdowns

724
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 2: against the defense. So I mean, I'm making a case

725
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 2: for what Nebrasi can do, but I'm not sure Nebraska

726
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 2: can do that because the passing attack of Royola has

727
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:05,880
Speaker 2: been the only driving force in this Nebraska offense. The

728
00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 2: only thing he's got an extremely low a dot six

729
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:11,239
Speaker 2: point eight yards? Is this the Oregon offense? Are we

730
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 2: just letting Dame Key and Jacorey Barney like both their

731
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 2: two point three yards per route run like that's what

732
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 2: this is?

733
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 1: Like?

734
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:19,800
Speaker 2: Rayola can run around and pretend like he's Patrick Mahomes,

735
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 2: But six point eight yards on average depth of target

736
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 2: means your Organ's offense, your bo Nicks. So the Nebraska

737
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 2: defense has been awful against the rush. I think this

738
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 2: is the biggest handy cap of the game. I mean,

739
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 2: the Huskers are bottom fifteen and defensive rushing success rate

740
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: line yards, they're outside the top one hundred. Stuff. Right,

741
00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 2: what does Michigan want to do? Stick it up, you know,

742
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 2: stick it down your throat with Justice Haynes, and I

743
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 2: think that's exactly what's gonna happen. And you got that

744
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:46,880
Speaker 2: those defensive marks. I guess the schedule of Houston, Christian Akron,

745
00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:47,560
Speaker 2: and Cincinnati.

746
00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:50,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, they've lost their their D lineman, their interior d

747
00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,800
Speaker 1: vineman Maker and Robinson.

748
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 2: Ros I'll go a little bit farther. Nebraska has severe struggles.

749
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:02,240
Speaker 2: Nebraska has severe struggles against outside zone and man blocking

750
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: run concepts both are thirty three percent or lower. Justine

751
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:08,319
Speaker 2: Haynes and Bryce Underwood will run for days because that's

752
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 2: the run concepts that they're in. So I just don't

753
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 2: think Rayola's short dumps against Winks quarters and cover three

754
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: look is going to work here at all. I like

755
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 2: Michigan this game, and but the number has been going

756
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 2: against me all week. I've just been waiting to get

757
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 2: minus one twenty on the money line. Do you want three?

758
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:24,319
Speaker 1: You won't give me three head to head.

759
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 2: I wouldn't give you three, but you wouldn't give me

760
00:37:25,840 --> 00:37:27,000
Speaker 2: money line. So if you want to go one and

761
00:37:27,040 --> 00:37:28,480
Speaker 2: a half and split the difference, I'll go on the

762
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:28,880
Speaker 2: board with you.

763
00:37:29,600 --> 00:37:31,960
Speaker 1: No, no, no, same. You give me three of tech

764
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:38,279
Speaker 1: you want? You want Utah live? All right, Let's let's

765
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 1: get to some other quick games here. Head to the

766
00:37:40,600 --> 00:37:43,719
Speaker 1: rundown Arizona State at Baylor, Like, so what's wrong with

767
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: Arizona State? Their top fifteen rush EPA success rate and

768
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 1: Baylor's run defense is horrendous. Although they might get Jackie Marshall,

769
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: they should get Jackie Marshall back to cool strength this week.

770
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 1: That'll help Phoenix Jackson's hurt. Their secondary it's just not

771
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 1: been the same because Williams and Turner or it's been

772
00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 1: a killer Losing bat to Florida killed out everything too

773
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: on the defense line, and they got these nose tackles

774
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: that just aren't playing. They're just running dime the time.

775
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: They so they're so light up front and you can

776
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:10,080
Speaker 1: run all over them. So Arizona State's rush offense has

777
00:38:10,080 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 1: been elite. But why are they not as good offensively? Well,

778
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 1: they're twenty seven percent on third downs. They were forty

779
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: six percent last year. They're not as efficient in the

780
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,120
Speaker 1: pass game. Why is that, Well, because Jordan Tyson is

781
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: the only guy they can throw to forty six percent.

782
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,560
Speaker 1: Target chair thirty two percent last year. Like Jala Moss

783
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:28,759
Speaker 1: the Fresno he's out again. They have no one else

784
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 1: to throw to. It's just throw to Tyson, throw to Tyson,

785
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 1: throw to Tyson. And then they miss Skataboo out of

786
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: the backfield. He was their second lead receiver and they

787
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: really miss him on third downs, the dump offs, and

788
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: that's why their third down and their pass efficiency has

789
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:43,000
Speaker 1: gone down. The defense also not getting turnovers. There's a

790
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:44,960
Speaker 1: drop one of the most experienced teams in the country,

791
00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 1: but there's a drop off at Nickel from Simmons to

792
00:38:47,680 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 1: guess what guessoo a Purdue transfer of Breedlove, So there's

793
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,000
Speaker 1: a drop off there. There are stud safety Alfred He's

794
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: out for this game. That's noteworthy. But Baylor can't run

795
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 1: the ball. You're not really going to run on Arizona State.

796
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,879
Speaker 1: So it's all about Sawyer attacking this ASU secondary, which

797
00:39:04,120 --> 00:39:06,600
Speaker 1: can be which is a bit vulnerable, like they're not

798
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: as strong as they were last year. So what does

799
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 1: all this say? This is a cost game, like, because

800
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 1: it's just going to be sore Robertson trying to hit explosives.

801
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: Then it's going to be there's gonna be some three

802
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,279
Speaker 1: and outs, and then there's gonna be some Arizona State

803
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 1: three and outs, and then Jordan Tyson's gonna break like

804
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: seventy yard and sixty yard pat This kid's gonna go

805
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:30,479
Speaker 1: back and forth. Whatever number you want on either team

806
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 1: going into this, you'll probably get it live. I got

807
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: nothing pregame anything there.

808
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:37,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I make this game Baylor favored by six,

809
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 2: like I'm well ahead of market, and I don't like

810
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 2: Baylor in this game at all, Like I'm I think

811
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 2: Arizona State is going to be in my money line round, Robin.

812
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 2: I mean their defensive so their defensive rushing success rates

813
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred, and the Sun Devils are

814
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 2: using a fifty eight percent rush attack. And it's not

815
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,239
Speaker 2: even Kanye Hudo who's been the man, it's Ray League Brown.

816
00:39:54,600 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 2: His numbers are off the chart, just not seeing a

817
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: lot of resistance. Baylor's one hundred and twentyeth in lineyards

818
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,640
Speaker 2: serious issues against man and inside zone concepts.

819
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,319
Speaker 1: They don't have anyone in the middle like Jackie Marshall help,

820
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 1: but they got all these nose tackles. They don't even

821
00:40:07,960 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: play them because I guess they just they didn't hit

822
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 1: in the portal.

823
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball. Maybe Arizona States

824
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 2: defense can be had for an explosive, but right now

825
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: they rank fifth in the nation and PBUs so Sawyer

826
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,920
Speaker 2: Robertson's going up against some swatters. I like Arizona State

827
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 2: in this game.

828
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:29,320
Speaker 1: All right, let's how about the Iron Skillet SMUTCU TCU

829
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,320
Speaker 1: major revenge here. They're off of by they'd lost sixty

830
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:35,160
Speaker 1: six forty two last year, SMU second straight row game.

831
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 1: SMU has been sloppy man bottom ten, penalties, kicker issues,

832
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,319
Speaker 1: they have injuries. Although they might get the receiver Hudson back,

833
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: they might get a couple of linebackers back. They made

834
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 1: a switch at tackle last game because their tackle one

835
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 1: of their tackle has been a mess. It's just not

836
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:50,720
Speaker 1: the same defense. They lost a lot of talent.

837
00:40:51,480 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 2: Uh.

838
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:53,280
Speaker 1: I think TCU rolls.

839
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, this was an overplay for me. I got, I

840
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 2: got uncomfortable about it. I thought it would fly, so

841
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:01,719
Speaker 2: I took it at sixty three and then somebody with

842
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:03,800
Speaker 2: a bag of money came in and shoved on the

843
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,399
Speaker 2: under and put it to sixty one and a half

844
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 2: at circa before it immediately popped back up to sixty two,

845
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: which is a very key number in total. So if

846
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: you can get sixty two, I definitely like the over here.

847
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 2: Josh is a you.

848
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 1: See, I like TSU seven or below, and they're not

849
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: going to keep the like Hoover is rolling. And you

850
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 1: know what other bet I like, let's get let's get

851
00:41:23,160 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: a future bet. I'm gonna bet this. Put this in

852
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 1: the app tonight, best number out there plus seven point fifty.

853
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: I was digging into TCU for a while. I like

854
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: them to win the big twelve, so so I'll better

855
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: than now. This game doesn't impact that, but if they

856
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,200
Speaker 1: look really good, the price might come down. And I

857
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,239
Speaker 1: do think they're gonna look really good. But I look

858
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 1: at this these standings like, Okay, Iowa State not a

859
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: believer in Sorry, I know you are, but I'm not

860
00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: buying it.

861
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:57,400
Speaker 2: Texas pre season, you and I both agree they've been fraudish.

862
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:01,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. Prawdish Texas Tech in Utah

863
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: one of those teams we all know what they could

864
00:42:03,640 --> 00:42:06,160
Speaker 1: be worse right right because they haven't played anyone, but

865
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 1: why have a loss. And by the way, yeah, Bail

866
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: is worse because their defense. They didn't hit on any

867
00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,000
Speaker 1: of these guys they were counting on and then their

868
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:17,600
Speaker 1: secondary head injuries, so their defense, Like I just don't

869
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:20,479
Speaker 1: think that they can win consistently, like win enough games

870
00:42:20,480 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 1: with this defense and like shootouts, like they're gonna lose

871
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:24,480
Speaker 1: a couple. So I'm out on Baylor. I was in

872
00:42:24,520 --> 00:42:26,239
Speaker 1: on Bail before the year. Luckily I had in bet them.

873
00:42:26,640 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 1: Arizona State is worse than we thought, uh and TCU

874
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: like who else Kansas, they don't have the defense like

875
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 1: West Virginia, Oak State, No Colorado Kansas State is get

876
00:42:39,719 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 1: them out of here. They're toast. So who's left? Like,

877
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: I think what this is gonna end up being TCU

878
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: versut probably the winner of this Utah Texas Tech game.

879
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: And TCU doesn't play Utah, doesn't play Texas Tech. Their schedule.

880
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 1: If they're at Arizona State on Friday, I think they

881
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 1: win that game. But after that it's Colorado at home

882
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: at Kansas State worse than we thought, home against Baylor,

883
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,919
Speaker 1: worse than we thought at West Virginia, have injuries home

884
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 1: against Iowa State, banger for me, at EYU home at

885
00:43:19,000 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 1: Houston home against Sincy. Like that's manageable. I think the

886
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 1: schedule I have them.

887
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: I look at this, I'm looking at this. I have

888
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:29,919
Speaker 2: them for the remainder of the season at six point

889
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: nine wins, and I have them favored in every single game,

890
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 2: some of them pretty heavy, and the only one that's

891
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 2: a coin flip is Kansas State. I mean, you're you're

892
00:43:39,719 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 2: not wrong. I'm probably gonna have to join you on this.

893
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 2: I mean, like every game, I've got them at least

894
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 2: sixty three percent favored on the board. Put it on

895
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:53,320
Speaker 2: the board for both of us as a yeah, this

896
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: is a this is a BBOC bet. I mean the

897
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 2: other games I'm looking at that could be short, like

898
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 2: right now projected late in the season, like minus four

899
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 2: point eight against BYU, minus four point eight a inst

900
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 2: Iowa State.

901
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: I mean Arizona State will be close. That's like a

902
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: pick I would imagine. But you depends on how they

903
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 1: look this week and stuff like. There's two market games.

904
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:17,560
Speaker 1: So all right, we're in on We're in over on

905
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:20,439
Speaker 1: this game. We're in on TCU for conference. We're gonna

906
00:44:20,520 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: we're gonna officially places in plus seven fifty. Yeah, okay,

907
00:44:24,360 --> 00:44:28,960
Speaker 1: we'll put it in. To put it in tonight. Let

908
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:30,440
Speaker 1: the podcast get out there and breathe.

909
00:44:30,640 --> 00:44:34,080
Speaker 2: All right, Wait, all right, all right?

910
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 1: Uh u ab at Tennessee.

911
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:39,760
Speaker 2: Oh boy, So I can't believe.

912
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,760
Speaker 1: Because this is the trend of all trends. Top fifteen

913
00:44:44,800 --> 00:44:48,239
Speaker 1: teams after they lose a top fifteen game favored by

914
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: thirty or more, the next game, they're twenty nine percent

915
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 1: over the past thirty years, they're failing to cover by

916
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:55,560
Speaker 1: bout of touch up again, they all come out flat.

917
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: We've only seen it twice this year. It's Clemton in Texas.

918
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: Clemson was down sixteen to notfing de Troy, Texas like

919
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: didn't even get off the bus. Against san Naese State,

920
00:45:02,520 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 1: they luckily to got five turnovers either came close to covering.

921
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: But with that said, you pointed this out to me,

922
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,239
Speaker 1: so you yeah, you ab plus thirty and a half.

923
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:14,000
Speaker 1: I'm not sure you would be able to get any

924
00:45:14,000 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 1: stops so many a couple more points to be involved

925
00:45:17,080 --> 00:45:19,120
Speaker 1: than you. You pointed out that Pipel usually runs this

926
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:21,320
Speaker 1: up the week after Georgia and does put it on

927
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,359
Speaker 1: some of these teams, like he did against UTAPH last year.

928
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, so that we were discussing this game, and

929
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 2: I thought to myself, you know, Hypel gets pretty pissed

930
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:33,360
Speaker 2: after Georgia blowed after they lose to Georgia. So I

931
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 2: went and looked it up. UTEP fifty six to zero.

932
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,680
Speaker 2: They've scored forty eight on Vandy the year before Miszoo

933
00:45:38,719 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 2: they put sixty six up three years ago, and then

934
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 2: South Bama sixty before that. I took Tennessee team total

935
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: over fifty five. Just a little half unit shot. Hypel

936
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: for some reason after these Georgia losses, goes ape shit

937
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 2: with his offense. Now can they listen if you're going

938
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 2: to back you ab. You can't let this just be

939
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 2: a part of the main podcast. You gotta put this

940
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 2: shit in the trash, right, I mean, are you not

941
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,600
Speaker 2: backing you? So that's why we're not in the trash segment.

942
00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 2: I mean this team is I mean, we proved that

943
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:06,640
Speaker 2: Accron is way better than U A B. Or they

944
00:46:06,640 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 2: could easily backdoor this. Like their offense is decent, but

945
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 2: I don't know how they'll get any stops. Uh too

946
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 2: lane at Ole Miss is I don't It looks like

947
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 2: Simmons is going to start. I think they should go

948
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,240
Speaker 2: uh Chambliss.

949
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:20,880
Speaker 1: But.

950
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 2: I mean his fingers probably in better shape than simmons

951
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 2: lower body injury.

952
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:30,560
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I don't know. I could see tu lane here,

953
00:46:30,880 --> 00:46:34,520
Speaker 1: tough spot for Ole Miss, little sandwich like summer all

954
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:37,480
Speaker 1: will have tu lane ready. They should. This Old Miss

955
00:46:37,520 --> 00:46:40,480
Speaker 1: offensive line isn't that good. The defense as holes like

956
00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 1: the offense is electric, but they should be able to

957
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 1: run on Tu lane.

958
00:46:44,200 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 2: But uh yeah, I don't think there's enough talk about

959
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:49,800
Speaker 2: how bad Old Miss defense is. I understand when you

960
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 2: play Arkansas's offense that your lineyards and rushing success right

961
00:46:54,280 --> 00:46:56,759
Speaker 2: on defense are gonna go. Wait out. But right now

962
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 2: Lane's fielding the second worst team in the nation as

963
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,120
Speaker 2: far as defensive lineyards, which means you're not controlling the

964
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 2: trench whatsoever.

965
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 1: So I think I lost so much NFL talent, so

966
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,279
Speaker 1: much talent from last year. That defense was so good.

967
00:47:10,200 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 1: You have to play that.

968
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:13,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the over and that over there because

969
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 2: Ole Miss can't play defense whatsoever. So this is another

970
00:47:16,480 --> 00:47:18,080
Speaker 2: one where I like the over. And I know this

971
00:47:18,160 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 2: has been a theme two weeks in a row. I

972
00:47:20,680 --> 00:47:24,120
Speaker 2: am looking for college football defenses. I can't find any.

973
00:47:25,480 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 2: And if the market, it's gonna take the market like

974
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 2: two weeks to adjust. Thought this week A lot they

975
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 2: really did last week was just over city.

976
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 1: I've got to mention the Civil War and the Apple Cup. Unfortunately,

977
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:42,719
Speaker 1: Wazoo and Oregon State are horrendous. I want zero part

978
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 1: of either dog.

979
00:47:43,800 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't even know how you handicap Washington State.

980
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 2: They're jecul and hyde and and Oregon. Oregon State was

981
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 2: the centerpiece of our havoc are trying to start doing

982
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 2: HAVOC rankings after we get a month worth of data.

983
00:47:56,640 --> 00:47:59,040
Speaker 2: The biggest discrepancy we found on the board this week,

984
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 2: it was Oregon and their havoc and have it allowed

985
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,000
Speaker 2: versus organ State. So I think this is a chance

986
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 2: for landing to pilot on. I think there could be

987
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:07,719
Speaker 2: easily two defensive scores here for the Ducks.

988
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: Here's a random one. I like Troy Buffalo under forty

989
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 1: two and a half's out there at the Troy offense.

990
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,600
Speaker 1: Their Bruce Crowder got hurt. Yep, it's it's done like

991
00:48:19,680 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 1: they got they have nothing. I mean last week against Memphis,

992
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,399
Speaker 1: Tucker Kilcrease, who's horrendous. He went ten to twenty nine

993
00:48:25,440 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 1: for sixty five yards against Memphis, and they ran at

994
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 1: twenty three times for forty yards. I don't know. They

995
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 1: might go with the and crowd is that they might

996
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 1: go with the Houston transfer, but I don't know. I

997
00:48:37,000 --> 00:48:40,320
Speaker 1: think Buffalo's defense refocused effort here after what happened with

998
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,080
Speaker 1: ken State, and the Troy defense is pretty good, so

999
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:44,320
Speaker 1: I think that's a grinder.

1000
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:46,800
Speaker 2: Buffalo didn't score all what five minutes left in the

1001
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:49,160
Speaker 2: second quarter? Were they sleepwalking?

1002
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:51,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, they just didn't show up for that game, So

1003
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,000
Speaker 1: I think their defense refocuses here. I think this is

1004
00:48:54,960 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: I know Duck agrees with there by the way check

1005
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,520
Speaker 1: out the group of five guys Duck and Breeze and

1006
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 1: live show ten thirdaym Eastern. On Saturday, late night game

1007
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 1: Sparti at USC eleven PM Eastern. That as brutal for

1008
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 1: Sparti as far as their their body clock is concerned.

1009
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: Michigan State does have injuries. This USC offense has been

1010
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 1: electric only WoT USC. My only reservation is they have

1011
00:49:24,080 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: what Notre Dame I mean, uh Illinois next week at

1012
00:49:28,239 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 1: noon on Saturday. They have ah after that they have

1013
00:49:35,320 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 1: let me see, who do they have Michigan and they

1014
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 1: have Notre Dame in Nebraska. So late night game here

1015
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: because so what I mean by that is they might

1016
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,680
Speaker 1: just take their foot off. I guess they kind of

1017
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: did that against Purdue last year last week, so that

1018
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 1: gives me pause. I'll probably end up betting this game.

1019
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:57,200
Speaker 1: It's eleven eastern USC first half because Michigan State is

1020
00:49:57,440 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: the number one. They have injuries on the offensive side

1021
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 1: of the ball, and I don't know how their defense

1022
00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 1: gets stopped. This even a justin for opponent. This USC

1023
00:50:10,719 --> 00:50:15,239
Speaker 1: offense is on another level, yes right now, and Michigan State, like,

1024
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: how how are they getting I don't know how they're

1025
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 1: getting stops like just they just gave up twenty four

1026
00:50:20,560 --> 00:50:21,799
Speaker 1: to Youngstown State like.

1027
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 2: The Penguins.

1028
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, but their quarterback through was twenty four to thirty

1029
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 1: four for two forty two. Now you're going up against

1030
00:50:29,600 --> 00:50:32,800
Speaker 1: this USC offense, So I think they just want to

1031
00:50:32,800 --> 00:50:34,680
Speaker 1: get a big league And by the way, Boston College's

1032
00:50:34,719 --> 00:50:37,200
Speaker 1: offense looked like the greatest show on turf, and then

1033
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 1: they went and lost to Stanford and they should have

1034
00:50:39,600 --> 00:50:42,839
Speaker 1: won that Michigan State game. So probably USC first half,

1035
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 1: I think they they're going to score it will and

1036
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 1: then I think they want to just Hey, let's stay healthy,

1037
00:50:48,480 --> 00:50:51,239
Speaker 1: rest up for this big stretch coming up. What are

1038
00:50:51,239 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 1: you saying?

1039
00:50:51,840 --> 00:50:54,719
Speaker 2: Well, so I think everybody I've gotten asked this a

1040
00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 2: couple of times, what makes your determination on team totals? Well,

1041
00:50:58,200 --> 00:51:00,040
Speaker 2: first off, I can't even bet them till Tuesday, and

1042
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 2: they're not widely available, so sometimes I wait till Tuesday

1043
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 2: night or Wednesdays to put in team totals. USC over

1044
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,279
Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half was what I want. I mean,

1045
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 2: just instantly, something I would have banged on Sunday if

1046
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 2: it was available. For all the points it stuck. He

1047
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 2: just said, just the severe issues with defending the past

1048
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 2: spartans are one hundred and eighteenth and strength of schedule

1049
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 2: including Youngstown. Their defensive pass efficiency ranks ninetieth BC Western Michigan.

1050
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,920
Speaker 2: Who's a corpse of an offense? So people ask like,

1051
00:51:27,040 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 2: what is the what is the thinking here? And for me,

1052
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 2: USC is an offense. It needs to stay in rhythm.

1053
00:51:33,040 --> 00:51:34,920
Speaker 2: They're the ones that need to keep their foot on

1054
00:51:35,000 --> 00:51:37,000
Speaker 2: the pedal at all times before they get to their

1055
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 2: big boy opponents. And so I think this is one

1056
00:51:39,239 --> 00:51:40,720
Speaker 2: of those games where they're going to make an example

1057
00:51:40,760 --> 00:51:42,439
Speaker 2: of it late at night. So it's not we don't

1058
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,399
Speaker 2: have to worry about eleven am kicks on the West Coast,

1059
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: we don't have to worry about scheduling about you know,

1060
00:51:47,760 --> 00:51:50,759
Speaker 2: travel situations. This is a prime spot for USC to

1061
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:51,279
Speaker 2: light it up.

1062
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:56,879
Speaker 1: Also, I do like Duke go read my Spots piece

1063
00:51:56,920 --> 00:52:00,719
Speaker 1: which is out in the Action Network app quick Not

1064
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 1: I think this is a good Bilo spot. There's some

1065
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: regression coming for dude, not for NC State not. I don't.

1066
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,719
Speaker 1: I don't trust the NC State team. Speaking of the

1067
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 1: Action Network AP, it's free. If you're a New Year

1068
00:52:11,760 --> 00:52:13,480
Speaker 1: and you don't have it, you are missing out on

1069
00:52:13,520 --> 00:52:16,560
Speaker 1: the full BBOC betting experience. Use code BBOC twenty to

1070
00:52:16,640 --> 00:52:19,319
Speaker 1: get twenty dollars off a year of action pro access

1071
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,360
Speaker 1: and never miss a bet from myself, Colin Duck and

1072
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:26,760
Speaker 1: the whole squad. All right, it's time for some trash.

1073
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:33,360
Speaker 2: What's that smell? It's digs me this trash, the sweet,

1074
00:52:33,640 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 2: sweet trash.

1075
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 1: The trash is a gold mine, old mind. Let's start

1076
00:52:38,800 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: it off. Miam Ohio. Who wants to bet them? But

1077
00:52:41,600 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: uh after the row and two? But this is your

1078
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 1: strength to schedule disparity game. MIMO has played two Big

1079
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:48,080
Speaker 1: ten teams and by the way, they looked much better

1080
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 1: against Rutgers. That game was misleading and there was a

1081
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 1: bad call flipped that game. Like two big ten teams.

1082
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:56,120
Speaker 1: UNLV has the worst strength of sched like they were

1083
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,320
Speaker 1: like there's strength steps like two hundred. They played UCLA

1084
00:52:58,400 --> 00:52:59,960
Speaker 1: and almost lost the UCLA at home, by the way,

1085
00:53:00,000 --> 00:53:01,919
Speaker 1: which is bad after what we've seen. They played Sam

1086
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 1: Houston and then almost lost. Idaho State played nobody. Now

1087
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:08,959
Speaker 1: you're going off to Oxford like for a noon kick.

1088
00:53:10,360 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 1: Special teams advantage up here. I said that they're going

1089
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: to get better as the year goes on because they

1090
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: had to reset their whole offense, brand new offense, Brandon quarterback.

1091
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,839
Speaker 1: They're well coached that bye week will serve them. Well,

1092
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,279
Speaker 1: I'm not buying anything. Un'll be as selling. Give me

1093
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 1: the team with the much better special teams at home, RedHawks.

1094
00:53:26,800 --> 00:53:30,719
Speaker 2: A greater one. Agree on the board. Yeah, put it

1095
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:32,120
Speaker 2: on the board. I actually make this game too. I

1096
00:53:32,120 --> 00:53:33,640
Speaker 2: think there's value in the two and a half. I'm

1097
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 2: gonna put it on my money line. Round Robin. UNLV

1098
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:38,439
Speaker 2: practicing like it was nine o'clock in the morning this week.

1099
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:39,959
Speaker 2: Mullin screwed with the body clock.

1100
00:53:42,960 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: I make my favorite. Yeah.

1101
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:46,840
Speaker 2: UNLV's one hundred and twenty nine the strength schedule, so

1102
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 2: and their numbers are bad for that.

1103
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: Uh, we're going back to well with Eastern Michigan.

1104
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:56,600
Speaker 2: Like is this a is this a quarterback situation with

1105
00:53:56,640 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 2: Louisiana or is this the Eastern Michigan thing.

1106
00:53:58,800 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 1: Well, Eastern Michigan showed like their offense is good, like

1107
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 1: they can actually move the ball. Like last week they

1108
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,000
Speaker 1: had four hundred and sixty one yards, had an sec school.

1109
00:54:05,360 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 1: Yeah you know what Louisiana had. They had in the

1110
00:54:09,600 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 1: second half they had thirteen plays or twelve plays for

1111
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:14,040
Speaker 1: negative two yards at an SEC school. They had one

1112
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:19,800
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty six yards total. Uh, like one hundred

1113
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,200
Speaker 1: and sixteen yards total. Last year they had they had

1114
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:24,560
Speaker 1: one broken run. This is how bad I ran last weekend.

1115
00:54:24,960 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 1: I had a Hunger team total under and they had

1116
00:54:27,600 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 1: negative few yards in the second half they had they

1117
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,240
Speaker 1: had one broken run. There are other thirty seven plays

1118
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 1: they had thirty five yards and they scored because of

1119
00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:38,120
Speaker 1: a tip pick. I can't lose any more but bets

1120
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:39,879
Speaker 1: this year on interceptions or I'm gonna lose my mind.

1121
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 1: But they don't have a quarterback. Their quarterback got hurt.

1122
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 1: Their backup Beal.

1123
00:54:44,640 --> 00:54:45,360
Speaker 2: Do I get to say it?

1124
00:54:46,880 --> 00:54:48,680
Speaker 1: Said their other their other backup.

1125
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:51,359
Speaker 2: Goad Lunch Winfield ch a great name.

1126
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: He's more of the dual threat guy. But Beal he's awful.

1127
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 1: Like he played as a true freshman that year he

1128
00:54:56,040 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 1: went thirteen of thirty for one hundred and twenty six yards.

1129
00:54:58,719 --> 00:55:02,440
Speaker 1: He then came in after the injury and in the

1130
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 1: first game against Rice when they only scored twelve points

1131
00:55:04,680 --> 00:55:06,839
Speaker 1: and he went oh of six trying to get them

1132
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,480
Speaker 1: to come back. Their offense is so bad, by the way,

1133
00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 1: these are two one coach that wins close games, one

1134
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 1: coach that doesn't Desormo he's awful. And by the way,

1135
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:19,600
Speaker 1: those the quarterbacks last week went two to fourteen for

1136
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:20,719
Speaker 1: four yards.

1137
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 2: On one reception, one complete, one complete the passer per quarterback,

1138
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,439
Speaker 2: one for lunch, one for bal Yeah.

1139
00:55:30,520 --> 00:55:32,959
Speaker 1: I mean Louisiana four and twelve and one score games.

1140
00:55:33,080 --> 00:55:35,560
Speaker 1: That's all Eastern Michigan will play. And against teams like this,

1141
00:55:36,560 --> 00:55:38,360
Speaker 1: I think this is a toss up. I make this

1142
00:55:38,520 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 1: like a pick. Yeah, so special teams mistake free Creighton ball,

1143
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:45,880
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan looking for their first win. I got the

1144
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:48,680
Speaker 1: completely broken offense. I can't take advantage of their defense.

1145
00:55:48,719 --> 00:55:51,799
Speaker 1: I like the effort from em you last week. Eastern

1146
00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:52,879
Speaker 1: Michigan gets it done at home.

1147
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll agree with you based on this what ed

1148
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,239
Speaker 2: Walker Howard, I would make this nine. So if you

1149
00:55:58,280 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 2: take him out, you get down to two. But these

1150
00:56:00,000 --> 00:56:03,960
Speaker 2: two quarterbacks are unbelievable, unbelievably bad two status.

1151
00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,439
Speaker 1: It's a weird spot, like it's not even conference play.

1152
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:09,520
Speaker 1: I don't even have these two ipsilany How.

1153
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 2: Did these two athletic directors even contact each other and

1154
00:56:11,800 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 2: say we do this? But I mean, what is the

1155
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 2: travel from Latvia Tolan? I mean that is that's something.

1156
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:20,360
Speaker 2: But two stats on either side of the ball of

1157
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,720
Speaker 2: Louisiana I'll throw out. They're dead last in passing success

1158
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:25,840
Speaker 2: right on offense and on defense, they're one hundred and

1159
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: thirty first in havoc. They're they're just lifeless right now.

1160
00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:32,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, IM, it's shocking how bad they are. I mean,

1161
00:56:32,160 --> 00:56:36,759
Speaker 2: it's a quarterback injury, but everything from Grace Yeah, uh,

1162
00:56:38,120 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 2: big coaching miss match.

1163
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 1: Nowe all right, we're going back to wall with Temple.

1164
00:56:41,800 --> 00:56:45,399
Speaker 2: Oh my god, you can't get enough of the team.

1165
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:48,760
Speaker 1: First of all, like last week Oklahoma cared for some reason,

1166
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 1: like but they were going fast. Georgia Tech's not going

1167
00:56:51,080 --> 00:56:54,080
Speaker 1: to go fast, say, and Georgia Tech's an awful big favorite,

1168
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:56,200
Speaker 1: you bet. Georgia Tech's a dog, you bet. Bran Kee

1169
00:56:56,239 --> 00:56:59,799
Speaker 1: is a dog. Letdown spot here. You're not gonna run King.

1170
00:57:00,160 --> 00:57:05,040
Speaker 1: There's no way they run King. Too many points twenty four, Like,

1171
00:57:05,080 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 1: there's not a big home field advantage. This is not

1172
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:12,080
Speaker 1: an elite defense like Oklahoma. So like they're gonna be

1173
00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:15,279
Speaker 1: able to run their stuff a bit. And Georgia Text

1174
00:57:15,320 --> 00:57:17,320
Speaker 1: doesn't profile they have like they're like Service Academy vibes.

1175
00:57:17,320 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 1: They don't profile is a big favorite. Give me the Als.

1176
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:20,480
Speaker 1: You can't get there.

1177
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:22,240
Speaker 2: I don't think I can get there. I mean, I'm

1178
00:57:22,240 --> 00:57:24,680
Speaker 2: trying to see. They had that big win over Miami

1179
00:57:24,840 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 2: last year, and they showed up next week against NCY

1180
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:27,960
Speaker 2: stayed in one thirty to twenty nine.

1181
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,160
Speaker 1: So also a team that lost to Bowling Green a

1182
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:33,320
Speaker 1: couple of years ago, they lost to Northern Illinois at home.

1183
00:57:33,400 --> 00:57:35,720
Speaker 1: Like I'm talking losing outright as like twenty one point favorites.

1184
00:57:35,760 --> 00:57:38,920
Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna happen. But even like they

1185
00:57:39,160 --> 00:57:41,840
Speaker 1: had near upsets the NC State, they almost lost NC

1186
00:57:41,920 --> 00:57:45,280
Speaker 1: State last week after a big win. Yeah, they play

1187
00:57:45,360 --> 00:57:46,840
Speaker 1: down to teams and they play off.

1188
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 2: They played their level of competition eight over times with

1189
00:57:49,760 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 2: Georgia last year. I get it. But there's another factor

1190
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,040
Speaker 2: here that you won't accept that you're addicted to Temple.

1191
00:57:57,560 --> 00:58:00,919
Speaker 1: Well, we'll say if if it's three and then it's

1192
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:02,040
Speaker 1: an addiction. It's only two.

1193
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 2: So far.

1194
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,480
Speaker 1: Temple plays after this.

1195
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,160
Speaker 2: We're gonna go four weeks in the season without the

1196
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:10,480
Speaker 2: single al jiff coming out.

1197
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 1: Yet I know I need them to score a touchdown.

1198
00:58:13,840 --> 00:58:16,240
Speaker 1: They didn't even score a touchdown last week. They have

1199
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 1: a bye thank god, next week, and then they're home

1200
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: against UTSA. All right, NIU, this is my favorite trash

1201
00:58:23,240 --> 00:58:24,760
Speaker 1: of the week. N I. You you want to talk

1202
00:58:24,760 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 1: about a big dog that's gonna cover for you, and

1203
00:58:27,800 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 1: this is an awful spot for Mississippi State they have.

1204
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:33,960
Speaker 1: They have Tennessee next week, and then A and M

1205
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:38,840
Speaker 1: super flat spot, Like what why is? Why show anything

1206
00:58:38,880 --> 00:58:42,280
Speaker 1: but NAU their offense. All they're gonna do Kelly Johnson

1207
00:58:42,360 --> 00:58:45,280
Speaker 1: Chavon right, They're gonna run it. They're gonna just grind

1208
00:58:45,320 --> 00:58:47,320
Speaker 1: this game down to a halt like they do in

1209
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:51,000
Speaker 1: this spot every single time. Ask Notre Dame, ask Georgia

1210
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:54,480
Speaker 1: Tech Thomas Hammock, do you want to hear some crazy splits.

1211
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 1: As a favorite, he's five and twenty one against the

1212
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:03,440
Speaker 1: spread nineteen percent. As an underdog, he's twenty four and

1213
00:59:03,520 --> 00:59:06,920
Speaker 1: eleven sixty nine percent. That's because of the way that

1214
00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 1: they play. He's seven and two against the spread seventy

1215
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 1: eight percent when catching more than two touchdowns. Hey, lookay

1216
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: they did against Maryland two weeks ago. And by the way,

1217
00:59:15,160 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 1: they're coming off of buye if fifteen days to prepare

1218
00:59:17,880 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 1: for this game with a full roster, reset, new offense, coiner.

1219
00:59:20,800 --> 00:59:24,640
Speaker 1: That's important this time of the year. So yeah, this

1220
00:59:24,840 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 1: is Oh dad, I make this nineteen and it's a

1221
00:59:27,360 --> 00:59:29,600
Speaker 1: great spot, so give me an IU.

1222
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:34,200
Speaker 2: I make it nineteen also, so I should agree.

1223
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:36,040
Speaker 1: For misstate isn't great for this, but I think I

1224
00:59:36,160 --> 00:59:37,040
Speaker 1: I you will bleed it out.

1225
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 2: I mean that's the thing is like. Defensively, I'm completely

1226
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:44,240
Speaker 2: with you. Offensively, these numbers are horrendous, right yeah, I just.

1227
00:59:44,320 --> 00:59:46,480
Speaker 1: Run, run, run, just to get a first down. All right,

1228
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 1: there goes three minutes off the clock. All right, get

1229
00:59:48,840 --> 00:59:51,240
Speaker 1: one more. I like their backs. Yeah, their offense is ugly,

1230
00:59:51,360 --> 00:59:53,640
Speaker 1: but they're just gonna ugly it up and our guys

1231
00:59:54,160 --> 00:59:54,560
Speaker 1: run enough.

1232
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:57,080
Speaker 2: Say I don't think you're wrong. All right, let's go

1233
00:59:57,160 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 2: with that. Just go ahead. Put you know, there's a

1234
00:59:59,280 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 2: twenty two and a half. Do we get twenty two

1235
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:02,400
Speaker 2: and a half because it circus at twenty two and

1236
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 2: a half fanduels at twenty two and a half. Do

1237
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:04,800
Speaker 2: we get that?

1238
01:00:05,000 --> 01:00:05,200
Speaker 1: Sure?

1239
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:08,520
Speaker 2: All right? Right now?

1240
01:00:08,840 --> 01:00:13,360
Speaker 1: The trash and agree Tech is all Mac teams. Oh

1241
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 1: what this is my heaven? Uh? I played La Tech

1242
01:00:20,200 --> 01:00:22,240
Speaker 1: against your Southern mispoints. I know you won't agree with that,

1243
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 1: but no, I played La Tech too. Okay, La Tech

1244
01:00:25,640 --> 01:00:28,160
Speaker 1: quarterback change. Last week they finally went with the right

1245
01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:31,560
Speaker 1: guy Cook. They're still using him. He's questionable. This week

1246
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 1: they're still using his legs. One of their their primary

1247
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 1: corner is also questionable, which is a bit concerning. But

1248
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:40,960
Speaker 1: La Tech's defense is legit. They finally made the quarterback

1249
01:00:41,040 --> 01:00:43,479
Speaker 1: change the guy I can actually run their offense. Southern

1250
01:00:43,520 --> 01:00:45,640
Speaker 1: Miss been getting lucky the last couple of weeks. I

1251
01:00:45,640 --> 01:00:47,160
Speaker 1: mean last week they had three picks inside the five,

1252
01:00:47,240 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: one of them was a pick six, and then app

1253
01:00:49,120 --> 01:00:51,160
Speaker 1: State benched a quarterback and they got out of hand.

1254
01:00:52,280 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 1: I like La Tech at home.

1255
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't have to put me on the board

1256
01:00:55,760 --> 01:00:58,200
Speaker 2: for this, because you know this is a thing where

1257
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:00,360
Speaker 2: if I lose this suisi Anttech bet I'm actual kind

1258
01:01:00,360 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 2: of happy with that Southern Miss forty to one out there,

1259
01:01:04,200 --> 01:01:06,400
Speaker 2: which I don't need any work just from you spraying

1260
01:01:06,480 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 2: me with the water. So yeah, I agree with you,

1261
01:01:08,720 --> 01:01:10,040
Speaker 2: but I don't. We don't need to put a board

1262
01:01:10,040 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 2: on this because I've already got a future.

1263
01:01:11,480 --> 01:01:12,920
Speaker 1: And then my last one is I mean this is.

1264
01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:15,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if this squalifies as trash, but I.

1265
01:01:15,640 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 2: Thought you weren't allowed to bet Yukon anymore.

1266
01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:19,320
Speaker 1: What do you mean? I? Oh, yeah, but i won

1267
01:01:19,400 --> 01:01:21,600
Speaker 1: last week for Delaware, so I'm back. I'm off probation.

1268
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:24,760
Speaker 1: I not one in. Oh yeah, but I haven't bet

1269
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 1: on Yukon. And now I'm laying three tuxadowns.

1270
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:29,280
Speaker 2: Those of you that don't know, someone called in and

1271
01:01:29,320 --> 01:01:31,640
Speaker 2: put a hit on the voicemails on Stuck like pre pandemic.

1272
01:01:32,080 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 1: So yeah, by the way, uh nine five nine that

1273
01:01:34,560 --> 01:01:36,720
Speaker 1: beats called yell. I mean, for all my bad that's

1274
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:37,520
Speaker 1: this weekend.

1275
01:01:39,280 --> 01:01:42,920
Speaker 2: Justin from running yo stuck. I listened to you one

1276
01:01:42,960 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 2: more time on anything involving Yukon. I'm coming after you.

1277
01:01:47,200 --> 01:01:47,800
Speaker 2: Take it easy.

1278
01:01:49,520 --> 01:01:51,840
Speaker 1: I laid it with Yukon like they lost back to

1279
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,920
Speaker 1: back overtime games coming home for ball State, who was

1280
01:01:55,040 --> 01:01:57,240
Speaker 1: so bad, and it's just a great matchup. You want

1281
01:01:57,280 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 1: to attack this Yukon secondary. Their corners are kind of weak.

1282
01:02:00,040 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: Ball State can't throw it. They literally can't throw it.

1283
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:04,680
Speaker 1: And I don't know how Ball State gets a stop.

1284
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:09,760
Speaker 1: The Yukon offense is electric Fiano, Skylar Bell. Yeah. Top

1285
01:02:10,200 --> 01:02:12,520
Speaker 1: ten nationally and DPA for pass past success rate.

1286
01:02:12,720 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 2: And have it allows they don't make mistakes.

1287
01:02:15,240 --> 01:02:17,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's where you want to attack ball State,

1288
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:19,440
Speaker 1: which has some good pass rushers, but they're void of

1289
01:02:19,520 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 1: talent on the back end. No Town at linebacker, no

1290
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 1: Town at safety. Corners are bad like their their their

1291
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 1: BOT is a bottom five pass defense.

1292
01:02:29,600 --> 01:02:31,960
Speaker 2: I'll join you. Actually, I'm going to play it.

1293
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:35,280
Speaker 1: They so far ball State's given up seven sixty seven

1294
01:02:35,320 --> 01:02:38,680
Speaker 1: percent completion, eight to seventy six touchdowns, no interceptions. And

1295
01:02:38,720 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 1: that includes a home game against New Hampshire. Yeah, this

1296
01:02:41,240 --> 01:02:42,840
Speaker 1: is I don't know how think it stops.

1297
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:47,720
Speaker 2: I might play the over two. So Yukon is thirteenth

1298
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:50,959
Speaker 2: and one of my most favorite stats offensive momentum killer.

1299
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 2: They don't commit penalties, they don't have three and outs,

1300
01:02:54,840 --> 01:02:58,680
Speaker 2: they have extended drives, they end up in scoring position,

1301
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,680
Speaker 2: and they end up scoring. A Yukon is that they're

1302
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:03,560
Speaker 2: very impressive offensively. I agree.

1303
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:07,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, their offensive is electric. Ball State just can't keep up.

1304
01:03:08,120 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: My only fear is is like it's a big number

1305
01:03:09,440 --> 01:03:11,400
Speaker 1: and ball State just wants to run it. They have

1306
01:03:11,480 --> 01:03:14,080
Speaker 1: like an option esque offense, and but I just think

1307
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,920
Speaker 1: yu Kon's gonna score that frequently and take out their

1308
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:20,560
Speaker 1: frustrations that the last two overtime losses. All right, a

1309
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:23,440
Speaker 1: sleepy spot. I kind of like Purdue. The number has

1310
01:03:23,480 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 1: been hit, but for what it's where top twenty five

1311
01:03:25,680 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: teams on a losing streak of two or more are

1312
01:03:27,640 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 1: twenty nine to sixty six and one against the president

1313
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:31,760
Speaker 1: two as a thirty one percent. That speaks to like

1314
01:03:31,800 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 1: the flatness after a couple losses, like people are like, oh,

1315
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:35,920
Speaker 1: they're gonna be angry, usually come out flat and they

1316
01:03:35,960 --> 01:03:38,120
Speaker 1: have some injury. They have some injuries, So I would

1317
01:03:38,160 --> 01:03:41,240
Speaker 1: lean boiler Makers keeping that within twenty five twenty.

1318
01:03:41,080 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 2: Six, they definitely got defensive problems.

1319
01:03:45,240 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 1: Georgia State almost made my spots piece and almost made

1320
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 1: the trash. I need twenty eight though, Like it's an

1321
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,000
Speaker 1: awful spot for Andy. Danny's an awful big favor, but

1322
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 1: Georgia State beat him last year, so like do they

1323
01:03:56,840 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 1: have this circle? By the way, TJ. Finley is the

1324
01:03:58,800 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 1: quarterback for Georgia State. Like in Saane six school, he

1325
01:04:02,160 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 1: took over his r QB one. He's dealing with some injuries.

1326
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:05,920
Speaker 1: Now they're using like him and Brown, so there's someone

1327
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 1: some and certainty there. It gets to twenty eight, I'm

1328
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:09,160
Speaker 1: gonna have to play it though, but that's why I

1329
01:04:09,160 --> 01:04:11,320
Speaker 1: didn't make it. All right, let's go nowhere fast.

1330
01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 2: You are about to enter a world unlike any you've

1331
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 2: ever seen before, where the beautiful, the brutal, and the

1332
01:04:21,360 --> 01:04:22,560
Speaker 2: brave all meat.

1333
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 1: San Diego State hosting Cal Cal twelve and a half

1334
01:04:29,800 --> 01:04:32,720
Speaker 1: point favorite. Uh, this is not the best spot for Cal,

1335
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:34,880
Speaker 1: and they're not They're not a great favorite role, but

1336
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 1: you can't have And it's like coming off the big

1337
01:04:38,200 --> 01:04:41,120
Speaker 1: Minnesota win. You've got conference play coming up. San Diego

1338
01:04:41,160 --> 01:04:44,600
Speaker 1: State off of a bye, so it's not a great spot.

1339
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:48,360
Speaker 1: But I don't know if I'm running the bet san

1340
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:52,280
Speaker 1: Diego State and the total is for twenty seven and

1341
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 1: a half, my gut says san Diego State covers, but

1342
01:04:55,840 --> 01:04:57,280
Speaker 1: it's not a game. I'm running the bet. It's on

1343
01:04:57,400 --> 01:04:59,960
Speaker 1: ten thirty Eastern CPS Nowork maybe I'll maybe I'll get there.

1344
01:05:00,120 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 1: But I love JCass. I love this. This Cal defense

1345
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 1: is rounding into form under Wilcox. Shocker. Now they don't

1346
01:05:07,720 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 1: have a run game, their offensive line in mid receiversle's

1347
01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:12,440
Speaker 1: lot to be desired. But what are you seeing here?

1348
01:05:12,640 --> 01:05:15,040
Speaker 2: I put a bed in earlier. Today we're gonna go

1349
01:05:15,360 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 2: not the full game under. We're gonna go the first

1350
01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 2: half under. San Diego State coming off of a bye,

1351
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:22,240
Speaker 2: and this quarterback Jayden Dinegal, I mean, I mean, this

1352
01:05:22,400 --> 01:05:26,479
Speaker 2: is shades of Anthony Calandria. Here. He is all or nothing,

1353
01:05:26,560 --> 01:05:28,919
Speaker 2: one hundred and thirtieth in passing success rate, but eighth

1354
01:05:29,000 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 2: and pass epa if you go into his aid dots

1355
01:05:32,440 --> 01:05:35,120
Speaker 2: against Cal though I know, I know, and that's a problem.

1356
01:05:35,200 --> 01:05:37,240
Speaker 2: So he's only hit twenty eight to fifty five passing

1357
01:05:37,320 --> 01:05:41,120
Speaker 2: this year. This is the stat that I love. Jayden Donegal,

1358
01:05:41,480 --> 01:05:44,640
Speaker 2: quarterback for San Diego State, has more passing attempts beyond

1359
01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 2: the twenty than he does in the ten to twenty

1360
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:49,920
Speaker 2: range and the zero to ten range. The kid doesn't

1361
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 2: throw anywhere except beyond twenty yards. Can Cal defend the

1362
01:05:53,600 --> 01:05:54,080
Speaker 2: deep shot?

1363
01:05:54,200 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 1: Yeah?

1364
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 2: They're fourth in coverage, they're ninth and passing down success right,

1365
01:05:57,720 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 2: Just give me the first half under. Col's gonna be

1366
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:03,840
Speaker 2: ready for this. This Didagal number is this bomb or nothing?

1367
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:04,680
Speaker 1: I do say.

1368
01:06:04,720 --> 01:06:07,320
Speaker 2: Diego State games just keep getting better and better. It's

1369
01:06:07,360 --> 01:06:08,640
Speaker 2: fun to me. Watch there.

1370
01:06:08,680 --> 01:06:11,000
Speaker 1: You have first half under all right, and then before

1371
01:06:11,040 --> 01:06:14,960
Speaker 1: we get to three and out Colin talking Arkansas football.

1372
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:19,240
Speaker 1: Arkansas at Memphis, whoo, pig Sully. This is a tough spot.

1373
01:06:19,280 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 1: They're coming off that all mission. They probably should have won.

1374
01:06:21,200 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 1: They have Notre Dame on deck, although are they even

1375
01:06:24,240 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 1: looking forward to that after this Notre Dame start? I'm kidding.

1376
01:06:28,040 --> 01:06:34,040
Speaker 1: Arkansas took some money on open open short. It was

1377
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:36,760
Speaker 1: like three four. I think I saw the soft openers

1378
01:06:37,760 --> 01:06:40,280
Speaker 1: got shot up, got served as a service release doctor

1379
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:43,360
Speaker 1: Bob release had shot up to now it's over a

1380
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:46,160
Speaker 1: touchdown total sixteen and a half. I assume you're just

1381
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:48,920
Speaker 1: gonna tell us, you know over like every week with Arkansas.

1382
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:51,480
Speaker 2: It's funny as the market's going completely against that. And

1383
01:06:52,360 --> 01:06:54,680
Speaker 2: when I hit the over on Sunday, I was pretty

1384
01:06:54,720 --> 01:06:58,280
Speaker 2: confident from an offensive perspective that Arkansas could pull this off.

1385
01:06:58,320 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 2: But remember that is spreadsheet stuff that spits out and

1386
01:07:02,200 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 2: saying this is what the total should be. Then you

1387
01:07:05,640 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 2: know my sources that I have here in town. Pittman's

1388
01:07:09,440 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 2: chewing everybody's ass on Tuesday because there's no there's absolutely

1389
01:07:13,680 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 2: zero motivation this week. They didn't practice on Sunday. They

1390
01:07:16,680 --> 01:07:19,000
Speaker 2: didn't practice on Monday. They showed up Tuesday and they

1391
01:07:19,040 --> 01:07:22,840
Speaker 2: were just slugs. Wednesday, same thing. Then you got Bobby

1392
01:07:22,920 --> 01:07:25,560
Speaker 2: Yellen and they just cannot get any motivation out of

1393
01:07:25,600 --> 01:07:25,880
Speaker 2: this team.

1394
01:07:25,920 --> 01:07:26,640
Speaker 1: That's round robin.

1395
01:07:27,520 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 2: I'm not Here's what I think is gonna happen. Here's

1396
01:07:30,280 --> 01:07:31,240
Speaker 2: what I think is gonna happen.

1397
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:34,320
Speaker 1: I don't know anything about Memphis because they played Chad Nooga, right,

1398
01:07:34,400 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 1: and they played Georgia State, who started TJ Finley who

1399
01:07:37,480 --> 01:07:39,920
Speaker 1: just got ruled eligible like he just became eligible and

1400
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:43,360
Speaker 1: started that game. And then they played Troy who lost

1401
01:07:43,440 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 1: their quarterback and then had to put Kilcrease in on

1402
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,840
Speaker 1: like the second drive and he went. They couldn't do anything.

1403
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:49,520
Speaker 1: So I don't have it. And this Memphis team is

1404
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 1: brand new, the brand new team on offensive defense, I

1405
01:07:52,240 --> 01:07:53,480
Speaker 1: don't have any data point on that.

1406
01:07:53,560 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 2: Okay, so really so the motivation isn't there, But Arkansas's

1407
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:58,720
Speaker 2: offense is going to wake up and figure out that

1408
01:07:58,760 --> 01:08:00,919
Speaker 2: Memphis is tackling so far is graded a one hundred

1409
01:08:00,920 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 2: and thirty fourth by PFF. That's horrendous. Taylor Green, Omega Blake,

1410
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:06,200
Speaker 2: and Mike Washington, I don't know if it's gonna be

1411
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:07,760
Speaker 2: the second quarter of the third quarter of the fourth quarter,

1412
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:09,840
Speaker 2: they're gonna wake up and start scoring some points. But

1413
01:08:09,960 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 2: Memphis has been a heavy rush offense so far. Sut

1414
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:16,360
Speaker 2: Smith has breakaway speed, Brandon Lewis has got one hundred

1415
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:19,519
Speaker 2: and thirty one rushing yards on design calls. Memphis is

1416
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 2: really big with inside zone read. They run so much

1417
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:25,920
Speaker 2: inside zone read. Do you know what Arkansas's defense sucks

1418
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:28,719
Speaker 2: at that defensive line? They are thirty five percent success

1419
01:08:28,840 --> 01:08:31,280
Speaker 2: rate against inside zone read. Memphis is gonna have success

1420
01:08:31,360 --> 01:08:34,920
Speaker 2: running the ball here completely. I'm gonna stick it my over.

1421
01:08:34,960 --> 01:08:37,160
Speaker 2: I know the market's going against me. If you haven't

1422
01:08:37,200 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 2: bet the over, I would say wait because I think

1423
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:40,920
Speaker 2: there's two live bets at play here.

1424
01:08:40,960 --> 01:08:41,160
Speaker 1: First.

1425
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:43,040
Speaker 2: I don't think Arkansas shows up in the first quarter.

1426
01:08:43,479 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm just getting all kinds of news that

1427
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:46,800
Speaker 2: we just do not give a shit about this game,

1428
01:08:47,040 --> 01:08:48,880
Speaker 2: and that might start in the first second quarter. I

1429
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:50,720
Speaker 2: don't know when they're gonna wake up, but a live

1430
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,960
Speaker 2: over is gonna come into play whenever they feel it.

1431
01:08:53,439 --> 01:08:56,080
Speaker 2: And then Memphis I think can easily can easily get

1432
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 2: on the board first here. So I wouldn't want any

1433
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:00,600
Speaker 2: part of seven and a half meat. I think this

1434
01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:03,240
Speaker 2: is an overtime game and ARGANSAK could potentially win by seven.

1435
01:09:03,720 --> 01:09:05,519
Speaker 2: I mean there is there is just a not give

1436
01:09:05,520 --> 01:09:07,120
Speaker 2: a shit attitude going on with this crew.

1437
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 1: Yeah, which means I think Memphis could be a good

1438
01:09:09,840 --> 01:09:11,800
Speaker 1: round robin piece, round robin money on piece.

1439
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:14,439
Speaker 2: Yeah. But if Taylor decides to wake up and take

1440
01:09:14,479 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 2: it over.

1441
01:09:15,560 --> 01:09:18,120
Speaker 1: But the problem, all right, for we get out here.

1442
01:09:18,200 --> 01:09:18,680
Speaker 1: Let's go three.

1443
01:09:18,760 --> 01:09:23,160
Speaker 2: Now, let's make it a quick three and out.

1444
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:26,040
Speaker 1: All right, first down, Friday Night lights.

1445
01:09:26,040 --> 01:09:29,799
Speaker 2: We got three games you gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1446
01:09:30,640 --> 01:09:33,400
Speaker 1: Let's yes. I'm gonna use as a plug listen to

1447
01:09:33,439 --> 01:09:35,639
Speaker 1: our Sunday show. We're gonna start talking about the Thursday

1448
01:09:35,680 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 1: and Friday games. We said Rice thunder which has been hit.

1449
01:09:39,520 --> 01:09:43,040
Speaker 1: We said that Iowa over. I have Iowa Rutgers over.

1450
01:09:43,520 --> 01:09:45,880
Speaker 1: I like Rutgers. They have injuries. Now, they were might down,

1451
01:09:45,960 --> 01:09:48,320
Speaker 1: like they might have lost three left tackles already for

1452
01:09:48,400 --> 01:09:50,920
Speaker 1: the season, but and then they have a wide receiver injury,

1453
01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:53,280
Speaker 1: running back injury. So they're banged up. They're like, they

1454
01:09:53,320 --> 01:09:56,360
Speaker 1: have injuries all over the place, but their defense is bad.

1455
01:09:56,400 --> 01:09:58,840
Speaker 1: Their offense just continues to cook. And then we also

1456
01:09:58,880 --> 01:10:01,240
Speaker 1: you also said Tulsa, yeah, which has been hit as well.

1457
01:10:01,360 --> 01:10:03,479
Speaker 1: Do you have anything and we'll continue to do that

1458
01:10:03,600 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 1: on the Sunday show. We'll talk about this some of

1459
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:06,280
Speaker 1: the weekday games. Do you have anything to that.

1460
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 2: I think Tulsa's good till ten. As I'm recording, where

1461
01:10:10,560 --> 01:10:12,599
Speaker 2: are we at right? Because things just keeps falling like crazy.

1462
01:10:12,640 --> 01:10:14,840
Speaker 2: We're at eleven, We're ten and a half at eleven, Okay,

1463
01:10:14,880 --> 01:10:18,680
Speaker 2: I think this is good until ten. You know, non

1464
01:10:18,760 --> 01:10:21,599
Speaker 2: conference sandwich. Tulsa kids wanted to play Oklahoma State. Oklahoma

1465
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:26,120
Speaker 2: State barely out yards per play outgained Tennessee Martin the Skyhawks.

1466
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:31,160
Speaker 2: Kirk Francis out of quarterback for Tulsa concussion. Baylor Hayes

1467
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:33,200
Speaker 2: is going to start. He actually has some legs to him.

1468
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:36,360
Speaker 2: I like Tulsa here to move around scoot and yeah, Iowa.

1469
01:10:36,479 --> 01:10:38,599
Speaker 2: Rutgers on the over. Put it in the app today,

1470
01:10:38,960 --> 01:10:42,120
Speaker 2: got some money on it earlier in the week. You know,

1471
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:45,479
Speaker 2: this is a thing where it's run concepts related. Rutgers

1472
01:10:45,520 --> 01:10:47,560
Speaker 2: has been horrible against inside zone and that's all the

1473
01:10:47,600 --> 01:10:52,400
Speaker 2: Gronowski has run with Xavier Williams completely inside zone. It

1474
01:10:52,400 --> 01:10:54,000
Speaker 2: so a little bit of outside zone, and then Rutgers

1475
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,240
Speaker 2: should get theirs too. They are a heavy inside zone team,

1476
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 2: man in outside zone concepts. I always been good against

1477
01:10:58,880 --> 01:11:03,320
Speaker 2: zone read. They've been horrible against man blocking concepts. They're

1478
01:11:03,360 --> 01:11:05,759
Speaker 2: thirty eight percent success right. I think both rush offenses

1479
01:11:06,280 --> 01:11:07,680
Speaker 2: have a lot of success here and they get over

1480
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:10,280
Speaker 2: this total. By the way, how high at fifteen and

1481
01:11:10,280 --> 01:11:12,280
Speaker 2: a half. So I play Iowa ruggords the fifteen and

1482
01:11:12,280 --> 01:11:13,800
Speaker 2: a half. We'll see if it's teams all right.

1483
01:11:14,160 --> 01:11:16,520
Speaker 1: Second down our favorite overdog or favorite favorite.

1484
01:11:16,360 --> 01:11:17,719
Speaker 2: Called the over doog parlay.

1485
01:11:18,040 --> 01:11:19,519
Speaker 1: We hit both of these last week, and we hit

1486
01:11:19,560 --> 01:11:21,320
Speaker 1: both of our underdog money lines. Which will do next?

1487
01:11:22,080 --> 01:11:25,679
Speaker 1: My favorit favorite. I'm gonna go Wisconsin. Some minus ten's

1488
01:11:25,680 --> 01:11:27,320
Speaker 1: out there. I know it's ugly. I know who wants

1489
01:11:27,360 --> 01:11:29,360
Speaker 1: to late ten with Wisconsin. I'm hearing Edwards is gonna

1490
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:32,400
Speaker 1: play revenge game for Maryland. He knows this defense. But

1491
01:11:32,680 --> 01:11:36,000
Speaker 1: this Maryland team's played nobody, literally nobody at home. They

1492
01:11:36,000 --> 01:11:38,800
Speaker 1: had a beat FAU with six turnovers. They barely beat

1493
01:11:38,920 --> 01:11:42,280
Speaker 1: NIU and then an FCS school, all at home. True

1494
01:11:42,360 --> 01:11:45,640
Speaker 1: freshman first road start at Wisconsin get right spot for

1495
01:11:45,680 --> 01:11:48,439
Speaker 1: the Badgers. Their defense is significantly improved. I don't like

1496
01:11:48,479 --> 01:11:50,680
Speaker 1: anything about this Maryland offense that I'm seeing so far.

1497
01:11:50,880 --> 01:11:52,760
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be able to run the ball. They're

1498
01:11:52,800 --> 01:11:55,320
Speaker 1: going to make some mistakes, and Wisconsin will be able

1499
01:11:55,360 --> 01:11:57,439
Speaker 1: to run it on this Maryland team to set up

1500
01:11:57,439 --> 01:11:59,320
Speaker 1: everything else. And I think Edwards is going to be back.

1501
01:12:00,120 --> 01:12:03,679
Speaker 1: So give me the Badgers at home laying ten Colin,

1502
01:12:03,720 --> 01:12:06,559
Speaker 1: you're rolling with the Jayhawks, who I also liked as well.

1503
01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:08,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, spot of the weekend is going to be Kansas

1504
01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:11,600
Speaker 2: coming off of a bye against West Virginia, who was

1505
01:12:11,640 --> 01:12:14,640
Speaker 2: a t D underdog and won the backyard brawl. You

1506
01:12:14,760 --> 01:12:16,760
Speaker 2: got Rich Rod out here losing to a MAC team

1507
01:12:16,800 --> 01:12:18,280
Speaker 2: and then coming out saying, well, you know, if you

1508
01:12:18,280 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 2: win the backyard brawl, everything's good. Well they did, so,

1509
01:12:20,280 --> 01:12:21,720
Speaker 2: now what are you going to produce the next week?

1510
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:24,320
Speaker 2: With the lancelotop pole coming off a bye week here?

1511
01:12:24,920 --> 01:12:26,840
Speaker 2: So it is a horrific spot. But West Virginia they're

1512
01:12:26,840 --> 01:12:29,840
Speaker 2: not producing any kind of pass rush whatsoever. Eighty ninth

1513
01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:32,960
Speaker 2: and tackling per PFF. So Jayalen Daniels should absolutely have

1514
01:12:33,040 --> 01:12:34,840
Speaker 2: a day here. And oh by the way kansas Is

1515
01:12:35,000 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 2: defense has been.

1516
01:12:36,240 --> 01:12:37,880
Speaker 1: The defense is really good.

1517
01:12:38,200 --> 01:12:38,320
Speaker 2: Yea.

1518
01:12:38,360 --> 01:12:41,719
Speaker 1: The linebackers will all be healthy after the bye that's important. Also,

1519
01:12:41,840 --> 01:12:44,439
Speaker 1: Daniels getting to work with his brand new receivers. He

1520
01:12:44,479 --> 01:12:47,599
Speaker 1: didn't he's out in the spring that bye week. That's

1521
01:12:47,680 --> 01:12:50,840
Speaker 1: going to help with this offense. The West Virginia defense

1522
01:12:50,920 --> 01:12:52,640
Speaker 1: is way better than I thought. Zach Ally was a

1523
01:12:52,680 --> 01:12:54,240
Speaker 1: great hire. They did hit on some of these lower

1524
01:12:54,320 --> 01:12:57,000
Speaker 1: level guys, but I don't think that they're going to

1525
01:12:57,000 --> 01:12:58,719
Speaker 1: be able to keep up. And it's a bad spot

1526
01:12:58,920 --> 01:13:01,960
Speaker 1: and there's injuries. They lost their best back, they lost

1527
01:13:02,080 --> 01:13:03,880
Speaker 1: one of the best receivers. They also lost another tight

1528
01:13:04,000 --> 01:13:06,479
Speaker 1: end last week, so they're injured. Kansas should be healthy.

1529
01:13:07,760 --> 01:13:10,040
Speaker 2: If you can't flush Daniels from the pocket, and this

1530
01:13:10,160 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 2: is the handicap on Kansas. If you can't flush Daniels

1531
01:13:12,240 --> 01:13:14,120
Speaker 2: from the pocket and you can't tackle in space, you're

1532
01:13:14,160 --> 01:13:14,759
Speaker 2: in big trouble.

1533
01:13:15,000 --> 01:13:16,439
Speaker 1: All right. Before we got out of your third down

1534
01:13:16,560 --> 01:13:23,720
Speaker 1: underdog money line parlay turning good weekends into great weekends,

1535
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:28,720
Speaker 1: it's time for the money line parlay hit this last

1536
01:13:28,720 --> 01:13:31,640
Speaker 1: week with GT. Georgia Tech and Vandy. I'm gonna go

1537
01:13:31,680 --> 01:13:35,760
Speaker 1: with ECU EYU traveling out east true freshman quarterback road

1538
01:13:35,840 --> 01:13:39,800
Speaker 1: start their defense. Maybe due for some regression. This EACU

1539
01:13:39,840 --> 01:13:42,120
Speaker 1: team has been better than I expected. I think this

1540
01:13:42,160 --> 01:13:44,439
Speaker 1: will be a back and forth game. Give me e su.

1541
01:13:44,520 --> 01:13:48,040
Speaker 1: I also considered Liberty just like the final bypoint. This

1542
01:13:48,200 --> 01:13:51,600
Speaker 1: is like all in for your season against JMU, but

1543
01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:53,280
Speaker 1: Jamu's coming off a buy. I'm curious to see what

1544
01:13:53,280 --> 01:13:56,240
Speaker 1: they do with their quarterback rotation, and Liberty's left tackles hurt.

1545
01:13:56,479 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 1: They should get some defenders back this week, but they're

1546
01:13:59,000 --> 01:14:00,519
Speaker 1: left tackle with what had to play last week and

1547
01:14:00,560 --> 01:14:03,360
Speaker 1: their original left tackle didn't practice today. Their left tackle

1548
01:14:03,439 --> 01:14:05,040
Speaker 1: to play against Bowling Green had one of the worst.

1549
01:14:05,120 --> 01:14:06,519
Speaker 1: It was one of the worst tackles I've ever seen

1550
01:14:06,520 --> 01:14:08,760
Speaker 1: in my life, and against that Jamie front that could

1551
01:14:08,800 --> 01:14:10,880
Speaker 1: be devastating. There could be other issues going on with Liberty.

1552
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:14,000
Speaker 1: So let's go with ECU and you're rolling with the

1553
01:14:14,120 --> 01:14:15,519
Speaker 1: Als the OLGAT we.

1554
01:14:15,560 --> 01:14:17,840
Speaker 2: May get an out gift here. We're so thankful, So

1555
01:14:18,000 --> 01:14:21,040
Speaker 2: Kennesaw State, we're gonna go with them over Arkansas State,

1556
01:14:21,080 --> 01:14:22,840
Speaker 2: and I'll credit you for telling me. I mean the spot.

1557
01:14:22,880 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 2: You can't forget what Arkansas State has done, like almost

1558
01:14:25,400 --> 01:14:28,439
Speaker 2: beating Iowa State and then turning around and playing, you know,

1559
01:14:28,520 --> 01:14:30,280
Speaker 2: for like the first time ever and trying to show

1560
01:14:30,320 --> 01:14:33,200
Speaker 2: up against a big brother against Arkansas It was Arkansall first.

1561
01:14:33,240 --> 01:14:36,400
Speaker 1: All that emotion they picked, they got up for, they

1562
01:14:36,720 --> 01:14:39,160
Speaker 1: put it all together, got up Priva State. Probably they

1563
01:14:39,320 --> 01:14:40,640
Speaker 1: should have a better chance to win the game. The

1564
01:14:40,680 --> 01:14:43,559
Speaker 1: rest screwed them over All. That energy was one hundred

1565
01:14:43,560 --> 01:14:44,840
Speaker 1: and twelve degrees on the field. Now that you're going

1566
01:14:44,880 --> 01:14:48,400
Speaker 1: to the smallest FBS stadium out of conference to play

1567
01:14:48,520 --> 01:14:51,400
Speaker 1: Kennisall with that defense and they already profile is a

1568
01:14:51,439 --> 01:14:52,080
Speaker 1: bad favorite.

1569
01:14:52,760 --> 01:14:54,920
Speaker 2: And I think the thing is is when wake Forest

1570
01:14:54,960 --> 01:14:56,640
Speaker 2: meet Kennesaw at ten to nine at the start of

1571
01:14:56,640 --> 01:14:58,400
Speaker 2: the year, I thought, man, wake Forest is pretty bad,

1572
01:14:58,400 --> 01:14:59,760
Speaker 2: but it turns out it's the other way around. Wakee

1573
01:14:59,760 --> 01:15:02,559
Speaker 2: Forrest actually not as bad as we thought. Kennesaw kept

1574
01:15:02,640 --> 01:15:04,200
Speaker 2: up with them in yards per play in that game,

1575
01:15:04,360 --> 01:15:08,800
Speaker 2: created five methodical drives. I mean, Kennessaw can can can

1576
01:15:08,880 --> 01:15:11,000
Speaker 2: do some offensive here. So I like them to upset

1577
01:15:11,080 --> 01:15:11,519
Speaker 2: Arkansas State.

1578
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:13,719
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, They're offense stinks, but it's the defense

1579
01:15:13,840 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 1: is so okay, and Arkansas State's defense is bad, so

1580
01:15:16,920 --> 01:15:18,320
Speaker 1: I think that they can move the ball like you said,

1581
01:15:19,040 --> 01:15:20,960
Speaker 1: all right, how about a bonusport down favorite bet of

1582
01:15:21,000 --> 01:15:22,120
Speaker 1: the whole day. Do you have it off the top

1583
01:15:22,160 --> 01:15:24,000
Speaker 1: of your head. I'm gonna go Miami Ohio New Eastern

1584
01:15:24,280 --> 01:15:24,720
Speaker 1: espn U.

1585
01:15:25,320 --> 01:15:28,719
Speaker 2: Oh boy, I mean I can't do CLV with Oklahoma

1586
01:15:28,760 --> 01:15:31,320
Speaker 2: minus four and a half. So I'm gonna say I

1587
01:15:31,560 --> 01:15:34,320
Speaker 2: love USC over thirty seven and a half team total

1588
01:15:34,320 --> 01:15:36,479
Speaker 2: against Michigan State late at night. That is my poor year,

1589
01:15:36,520 --> 01:15:38,680
Speaker 2: Scotch single ice cube and end your day on that.

1590
01:15:39,600 --> 01:15:42,080
Speaker 1: All right, that'll have it agreed, Tap threecap TCU to

1591
01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:44,720
Speaker 1: win the big twelve Miami Ohio E m U, N

1592
01:15:44,760 --> 01:15:50,040
Speaker 1: I U, Maction baby and yukon what And that's basically

1593
01:15:50,400 --> 01:15:53,760
Speaker 1: the trash plus law tech So no head to hens.

1594
01:15:54,160 --> 01:15:55,439
Speaker 1: Well you will take Come.

1595
01:15:55,360 --> 01:15:57,320
Speaker 2: On, let's do Michigan Nebraska. I'll give you one and

1596
01:15:57,320 --> 01:15:57,880
Speaker 2: a half points.

1597
01:15:58,040 --> 01:16:00,840
Speaker 1: Come on, you know you now give you three like

1598
01:16:01,200 --> 01:16:03,160
Speaker 1: you're gonna push three on the board.

1599
01:16:03,439 --> 01:16:04,800
Speaker 2: There's no three, but I gave you.

1600
01:16:05,280 --> 01:16:06,519
Speaker 1: I was generous with LSU.

1601
01:16:06,840 --> 01:16:07,559
Speaker 2: I'll give you two.

1602
01:16:08,160 --> 01:16:11,880
Speaker 1: I can get get two and a half. Final. We

1603
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:14,040
Speaker 1: won't know how to have this week. We'll have one

1604
01:16:14,040 --> 01:16:15,519
Speaker 1: next week. I already know the game it's gonna be

1605
01:16:15,800 --> 01:16:17,640
Speaker 1: I'll let you figure that out. That'll do it for us.

1606
01:16:17,680 --> 01:16:19,439
Speaker 1: Thanks Calm for joining me, Thanks for our producing the

1607
01:16:19,479 --> 01:16:21,439
Speaker 1: back end most poorly. Thanks to all of you. We

1608
01:16:21,520 --> 01:16:24,519
Speaker 1: will be back with a recap episode Monday morning, featuring

1609
01:16:24,920 --> 01:16:27,320
Speaker 1: the best of your deranged voicemails nine to five nine

1610
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:29,519
Speaker 1: bad beat of our live show ten thirty a m

1611
01:16:29,560 --> 01:16:31,800
Speaker 1: Eastern Saturday. If you want to tell some of the

1612
01:16:31,840 --> 01:16:33,599
Speaker 1: bests we discussed today, look for the quick slip link

1613
01:16:33,640 --> 01:16:36,080
Speaker 1: in the video and podcast description, or visit actionwork dot

1614
01:16:36,120 --> 01:16:38,840
Speaker 1: com slash bet now, subscribe on scraps, scribe to all friends.

1615
01:16:38,880 --> 01:16:40,439
Speaker 1: I'll enemy know the drill be a five story of you.

1616
01:16:40,520 --> 01:16:42,840
Speaker 1: They really help to sell. We'll see you back here Monday. Cheers,

1617
01:16:43,080 --> 01:16:43,479
Speaker 1: peace out.

1618
01:16:59,360 --> 01:17:03,519
Speaker 2: Action No Work reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you

1619
01:17:03,800 --> 01:17:06,519
Speaker 2: or someone you care about has a gambling problem, help

1620
01:17:06,640 --> 01:17:09,320
Speaker 2: is available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred

1621
01:17:09,360 --> 01:17:09,799
Speaker 2: Gambler