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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico. Joined

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Speaker 1: today by a very special guest. He's a good friend

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Speaker 1: that I get to hang out with every year down

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Speaker 1: in Arizona. It's Eric Alterman from Rotal Wire. Eric, great

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Speaker 1: to talk with you today. How you been doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great, And this is a great time of year,

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Speaker 2: of course, Fantasy baseball draft season. Is that the best

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Speaker 2: part of the fantasy baseball season. Maybe maybe week one

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Speaker 2: and two of the actual regular season, when we've got

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Speaker 2: real games and all of our teams are at least

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the standings for at least a

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Speaker 2: week or two. I hope excited to be doing this

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Speaker 2: show here on Christmas Eve. Here, only one more day

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Speaker 2: until we actually get real baseball games. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I was thinking I was done drafting, and then I

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Speaker 1: was looking this morning at my player shares and I

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Speaker 1: wanted to have one more my guys team. So I

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Speaker 1: signed up for one more draft on the NFBC, And

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Speaker 1: who knows, if I don't like that team, maybe we'll

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Speaker 1: sign up for another one tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: Sounds like point.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this time of year is just chaos. It's a

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Speaker 1: lot of fun, but I really appreciate you taking the time.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be talking about high stakes ADP trends and

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Speaker 1: what that'll mean is looking at some players who have

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Speaker 1: been going higher in the NFBC Main Event than they

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Speaker 1: will in the standard formats. Whether it's other NFBC leagues

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Speaker 1: or if it's more the consumer based leagues, these guys

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Speaker 1: are going up dramatically. In some cases, some of them

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Speaker 1: it's incremental increases, Especially for the earlier round guys. They

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Speaker 1: can only go up so much. But some of these

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Speaker 1: guys are flying up draft boards. We're also going to

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Speaker 1: compare it to where they've been going on Yahoo, Yahoo

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Speaker 1: being likely the most popular platform. It depends really they're

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you're looking at dynasty versus redraft ors

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Speaker 1: as keeper leagues, people like to use a whole bunch

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Speaker 1: of them. But we're going to compare the Yahoo ADP

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Speaker 1: to the most recent sample of main event ADP. And

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Speaker 1: I want to start with Wyatt Langford. He has been

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Speaker 1: a guy who got a lot of hype last year.

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Speaker 1: I did a draft with my good friend Paul Sporre

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Speaker 1: the other day and he took him in this second round,

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Speaker 1: so we are starting to see a little bit more

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Speaker 1: Wyatt Langford hype twenty two and twenty two last year,

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Speaker 1: despite a couple of IL stints, and so far in

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Speaker 1: spring training through his fifteen games, five home runs with

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Speaker 1: a four to twenty five batting average. Eric, my only

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Speaker 1: concern is some of the injury troubles that he had

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Speaker 1: last year. Like I mentioned, a couple stints on the il,

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Speaker 1: the oblique and hamstring troubles. It worries me a little bit,

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Speaker 1: but the talent really is hard to question at this point,

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Speaker 1: only twenty four years old. We could see why at

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Speaker 1: Langford take another step, but is he worth taking at

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Speaker 1: that increased ADP if you're looking at the NFBC Main

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Speaker 1: event thirty eight on average compared to fifty four on Yahoo.

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Speaker 1: If you found yourself landing on White Langford a bunch

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Speaker 1: this year, Eric, I.

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Speaker 2: Have not yet in NFBC leagues, but I did land

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Speaker 2: him in one ESPN league, which is probably a similar

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Speaker 2: sort of ADP to Yahoo there, and I think that

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Speaker 2: is an approach that I'm comfortable with because of the

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Speaker 2: injuries that you mentioned. It's not just some stuff last year,

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Speaker 2: it's really two years in a row, and neither year

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Speaker 2: did he miss a ton of time, but he played

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Speaker 2: exactly one hundred and thirty four games in both this

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Speaker 2: season so far. And it's similar sort of muscle injuries too,

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Speaker 2: So you do start to worry, is this just a

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Speaker 2: guy who doesn't have great obliques or something like that?

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Speaker 2: Are we going to see that every year? From Wyatt Langford?

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Speaker 2: And I am a bit of a coward at the

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Speaker 2: top of my draft boards. I don't like taking players

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Speaker 2: who are particularly likely to miss a lot of time.

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Speaker 2: When you're in the part of the draft where there

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Speaker 2: are so many other good players. You don't need to

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Speaker 2: have all of the good players on your team. You

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Speaker 2: can only have so many of them, so taking some

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Speaker 2: with a little bit higher floor is generally my approach.

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Speaker 2: So at the elevated price, I'm not so sure, but

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Speaker 2: I am glad I was able to grab at least

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Speaker 2: one share because the upside the youth, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: only twenty four years old. This is the guy who

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Speaker 2: was a premium prospect, who's already shown us a twenty

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Speaker 2: two to twenty two season in again not quite a

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Speaker 2: full year last year. I think it's very easy to

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Speaker 2: look at his stat line and say this is the

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Speaker 2: kind of player who could be going thirty thirty. It's

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Speaker 2: just a question of those injuries. So I don't know

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Speaker 2: if it's for me. At pick thirty eight, you could

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Speaker 2: have so many other similar players. If you're in that

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Speaker 2: range of the draft, you're starting to look at say

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Speaker 2: a Pete Krow Armstrong, who has his own risks, right,

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Speaker 2: but those are skills related risks. Pete kor Armstrong I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty sure is going to play. And if he's going

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Speaker 2: to play, he's gonna be definitely twenty twenty, right. He

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Speaker 2: might hit two twenty as well, but I have a

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Speaker 2: little bit more confidence that I'm getting one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty plus games from him. So at that range it's

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Speaker 2: a little uncomfortable for me. But this is one where

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Speaker 2: I'm absolutely worried that if I'm wrong, I could be

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Speaker 2: very wrong. We certainly could be taken why at Langford

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Speaker 2: in the first round next year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the underlying skills were always good if you look

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Speaker 1: at the contact profile, the hard hit rates, but they've

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Speaker 1: gone on to another level in spring, and I get

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Speaker 1: a little bit nervous. I think, as we all do

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Speaker 1: in spring, about overreacting or underreacting to a given piece

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Speaker 1: of news or data, but he's not chasing as much.

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Speaker 1: His end zone contact is ninety five percent, he's making

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Speaker 1: ninety two percent contact. Overall, strike rate is down below

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Speaker 1: four percent, and if you're looking at the hard hit

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Speaker 1: at it's a fourteen percent barrel and a ridiculous seventy

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Speaker 1: four percent hard hit rate. So he's essentially combining like

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Speaker 1: Luisa Riaz and Aaron Judge skill sets. To this point

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Speaker 1: in spring training, I took him in my home league,

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Speaker 1: which is a ten team Yahoo format with IL spots.

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Speaker 1: It felt like a bit of an easier place to

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Speaker 1: take him. I think it was forty ninth or fiftieth overall,

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Speaker 1: so I felt confident in him there, not having to

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Speaker 1: reach as high as you would in some of the

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Speaker 1: high stakes formats, but I wanted to get at least

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Speaker 1: one share of Langford. Not sure how many I'll get

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Speaker 1: as the price continues to go up, but I agree

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Speaker 1: he could very easily be a first round player next

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Speaker 1: year and I wouldn't be surprised by it. Eurie Perez

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Speaker 1: is the next guy who has gotten some helium. It

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Speaker 1: feels like his price has kind of just been slowly

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Speaker 1: trending up throughout draft season. It was kind of shocked

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Speaker 1: to see on Yahoo he's still at a one twenty EIGHTP,

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Speaker 1: whereas in the main event on the NFBC it's sixty

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Speaker 1: now Yahoo, those ADPs will probably span a longer period

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Speaker 1: of time. The main event is only looking. I think

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Speaker 1: they started them at the beginning of March or so,

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Speaker 1: so maybe the Yahoo ADP is taking some older sampling

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Speaker 1: in it and there as well. But Euri Perez is

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Speaker 1: a guy that the skills I think are unquestionable. Last

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Speaker 1: year returning from Tommy John surgery, when a lot of

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Speaker 1: people kind of struggle in their first year back on

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Speaker 1: the surface, he might have with his four to twenty

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Speaker 1: five RA, but the whip was one oh five. He

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Speaker 1: had a twenty percent strikeout minus walk rate. The skills

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Speaker 1: are phenomenal and only twenty two years old. I fully

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Speaker 1: bought into the Uri breakout, but I understand the price

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Speaker 1: is getting pretty pretty high, to the point where he's

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Speaker 1: a fourth round pick in those main events. Eric, somebody

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Speaker 1: that you're willing to take, or is Euri Perez better

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Speaker 1: left for somebody else this year?

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Speaker 2: I would like to say that I'm willing to take him,

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Speaker 2: but I haven't actually managed to take him, so I

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Speaker 2: guess the answer is no. He could potentially be a

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Speaker 2: major FAUMO player for me this year. For some of

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Speaker 2: spring training he was having some walk issues, but it

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Speaker 2: looks like that's come down a little bit. Eleven and

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Speaker 2: a half percent walk rate isn't what you want, but

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Speaker 2: it's not a huge red flag in these small samples

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Speaker 2: that we're talking about here. It's just fourteen and two

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Speaker 2: thirds innings this spring, somebody who of course has incredible stuff.

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Speaker 2: Haven't actually seen a thirty percent strikeout rate from him

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Speaker 2: yet in his first couple of seasons, but you certainly

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Speaker 2: feel like that could be coming this year. He's also

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Speaker 2: somebody who's an extremely low ground ball guy, and this

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Speaker 2: is something that I'm trying to talk myself into. For

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Speaker 2: several years, I've loved pitchers who can miss bats, and

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Speaker 2: when they don't miss bats, the ball stays on the

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Speaker 2: ground because they avoid homers. But the thing is a

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Speaker 2: high ground ball rate tends to mean a high babbit

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Speaker 2: and therefore a shaky whip. Now Uri Perez his two

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Speaker 2: seasons one thirteen and one oh five, that's because he's

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Speaker 2: a bottom tier ground ball guy. If you're giving up

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Speaker 2: a lot of flyballs, you will theoretically give up some homers.

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Speaker 2: That hasn't actually been a problem for him yet, but

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Speaker 2: flyballs find gloves way more often. Perez had a two

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Speaker 2: forty babbit last year, a two to sixty one babbit

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Speaker 2: as a rook I'm not sure we can quite say

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Speaker 2: it's going to stay that low, but if he really

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Speaker 2: is going to keep having this many fly balls, then

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Speaker 2: he's going to have, you know, some solo homers and

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Speaker 2: a lot of weak flyouts, and that's going to lead

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Speaker 2: to a guy who not only strikes out a ton

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Speaker 2: of batters but also has a reliably low whip. So

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Speaker 2: it's something that I think I personally need to adjust

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Speaker 2: in my own fantasy drafts rankings, my own fantasy game

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Speaker 2: generally is to become a little bit more willing to

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Speaker 2: see this outlier low ground ball rate as actually a

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Speaker 2: strength rather than a weakness. And I think once you

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Speaker 2: make that adjustment, then Perez is a big help in case.

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Speaker 2: He's a big help and whip. He's probably a big

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Speaker 2: help in era too. Not sure about the wins in Miami,

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Speaker 2: but I think there's enough going for him that I

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Speaker 2: think that price isn't crazy, even if I haven't managed

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Speaker 2: to actually click on his name.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, looking at spring, I know it's a

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Speaker 1: very small sample. Let's hope that he can stay in

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Speaker 1: that fifty plus percent in ground ball range. I don't

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Speaker 1: think that's going to happen, but I agree with you

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Speaker 1: that it's not something that would necessarily keep me off

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Speaker 1: of Uri. The wins might be the only thing that

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Speaker 1: he struggles to come by, But I'm coming around on

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Speaker 1: the Marlins a little bit. I think there is a

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Speaker 1: decent amount of talent. The pitching is great, the lineup

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Speaker 1: is getting better, So maybe we can sneak out ten

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Speaker 1: or eleven wins from Yuri. As long as it's not

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Speaker 1: six or seven, I think we can make it work.

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Speaker 1: A guy that I drafted once this year so far.

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Speaker 1: But I am very, very, very nervous about what to expect.

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Speaker 1: And it's Zach Wheeler. And I believe I saw yesterday

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Speaker 1: that he is going to be making a minor league

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Speaker 1: rehab start in the next couple of days. But we

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Speaker 1: don't really know anything to this point. Unless I have

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Speaker 1: missed something. We haven't seen any velocity of readings. We

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Speaker 1: don't really know what Zach Wheeler is going to look like,

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Speaker 1: and at his age, which is about to be thirty

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Speaker 1: six coming off of a major surgery, I'm not really

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Speaker 1: sure how much I want to be investing in him.

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Speaker 1: I've drafted him once and it's a league with unlimited

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Speaker 1: IL spots. If you're talking about standard NFBC leagues, I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure I want to do it, especially with the

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Speaker 1: rising price. Eighty eight is his ADP in the main

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Speaker 1: event compared to one thirty six on Yahoo? Eric, Is

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Speaker 1: it worth it to take a chance on Zach Wheeler

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Speaker 1: this season.

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Speaker 2: At one thirty six? I think absolutely. I have only

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Speaker 2: clicked on his name once this year. It was actually

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Speaker 2: in a keeper league because there I figured, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 2: getting a player who would have gone for forty bucks

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Speaker 2: or more in a keeper league. I'm getting him for

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Speaker 2: twenty And if I am right this year and he

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Speaker 2: is actually, you know, ninety five percent of what we

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Speaker 2: used to see from Zach Wheeler, then I'm getting a

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Speaker 2: guy at a discount for two years. That seemed like

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Speaker 2: a deal worth taking to me. It's the fact that

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen those velocity readings though, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 2: as as I've said before, I'm a bit of a

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Speaker 2: coward in the early rounds. I don't want to have

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Speaker 2: any of my early picks be at a high risk

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Speaker 2: of just messing up entirely. And thorscic outlets syndrome is scary.

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Speaker 2: This is the good kind, to the extent that there

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Speaker 2: is a good kind of thoracic outlets syndrome. It's not quite,

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Speaker 2: I believe, the Matt Harvey kind which completely derailed his career,

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Speaker 2: although there may have been some other things mixed in

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Speaker 2: there as well. And all the news with Zach Wheeler

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Speaker 2: has been basically as positive as you could want. There's

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Speaker 2: been no set at all throughout the off season. So

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Speaker 2: if you are at all willing to be an optimist,

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Speaker 2: which again I tend not to be, but if you

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Speaker 2: are somebody who drafts optimistically, you know you're seeing everything

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Speaker 2: you could want here. For me, I just really wasn't

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Speaker 2: comfortable with it until we saw some of the actual

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Speaker 2: hard data on him. We got one simulated innings appearance

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Speaker 2: of twenty nine pitches on the backfields on Monday. That's

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Speaker 2: just not the kind of thing where we tend to get,

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Speaker 2: you know, stuff plus ratings for and that sort of thing.

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Speaker 2: If we had had even one set of data that showed, man,

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Speaker 2: Zack Wheeler's almost what he was last year and this

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Speaker 2: is just his first start back, I would have been

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Speaker 2: all over that, because there certainly is the potential here,

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Speaker 2: with this being the less scary guind and with there

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Speaker 2: being no real setbacks, there's the potential that Zach Wheeler

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Speaker 2: is basically Zach Wheeler for five five and a half months.

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Speaker 2: So I think if you can get him at that discount,

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Speaker 2: I'd do it. But if you have to pay full price, man,

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Speaker 2: why why not just take somebody who isn't coming off

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Speaker 2: with thrascic outlet syndrome if you're talking your first five

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Speaker 2: rounds or so.

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Speaker 1: That's the thing with me, And I'm not a doctor,

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Speaker 1: I don't pretend to be one. I don't know a

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Speaker 1: lot about the thoracic outlet syndrome. But there are a

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Speaker 1: couple of different kinds like this is not Matt Harvey

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Speaker 1: Jared Walsh type of you know your career is over

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Speaker 1: type of injury. But at the same time, at his age,

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Speaker 1: with the price rising the way it is, I just

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Speaker 1: don't know if I really want to take a chance

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Speaker 1: on him. Inside the top one hundred. If I can

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Speaker 1: get him outside of the top one hundred picks, I

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Speaker 1: think I could say, all right, he's my third starting pitcher.

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Speaker 1: I can make it work here, especially if I have

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Speaker 1: two guys that I feel really good about from a

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Speaker 1: volume standpoint to start my draft off. If I'm starting

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Speaker 1: like Cole Reagan's Kyle Bradish or something like that, where

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Speaker 1: I see the upside but the floor might be a

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Speaker 1: little bit low, I don't know if I could take Wheeler.

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Speaker 1: He feels a little bit build specific. As much as

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Speaker 1: I love the talent and I think, you know, he

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Speaker 1: probably should have won a cy Young Award at some

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Speaker 1: point in his career and borderline Hall of Fame quality pitcher.

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Speaker 1: I just don't know if I want to be left

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Speaker 1: holding the bag. I'd almost rather be out a year

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Speaker 1: early than a year late on a guy like Zach Wheeler.

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Speaker 1: But I could see both sides of this. There's a

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Speaker 1: world war Zach Wheeler does win the cy Young this year.

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Speaker 1: I think it's a very low chance. But if he

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Speaker 1: comes back makes twenty seven or twenty eight really good starts,

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Speaker 1: there's a world where that does happen. Guys, before we

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Speaker 1: Let's continue the party here with Eric and talk about

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Speaker 1: Matt McClain, a guy who is rising in prices quite dramatically.

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Speaker 1: And you know I have the Yahoo ADP listed here.

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Speaker 1: It was one eighty one as of last night, one

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Speaker 1: twenty one. In the main event. I did my home

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Speaker 1: league on Yahoo last night. Matt McClain did not last

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Speaker 1: will pick one eighty one. I think he went around

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Speaker 1: picked one thirty or so. People are buying into what

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Speaker 1: he has done in spring. And also, you know a

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Speaker 1: couple of years ago when he debuted, it was really

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Speaker 1: really fancy stuff from fantasy point of view. Eighty nine games,

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Speaker 1: sixteen homers, fourteen steels, and in seventeen spring games he

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Speaker 1: has seven homers, two stolen bases. He's hitting five twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: He's a WRC plus of three hundred and one. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure I've ever seen a WRC plus of the

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Speaker 1: three hundred range, whatever the sample size is, Eric, are

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Speaker 1: you following drafters up the boards with Matt McClain. There

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Speaker 1: is some risk here. I mean just last year he

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Speaker 1: lost his job as the starting second baseman for a

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Speaker 1: pretty poor Reds team. So what's your outlook on him

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say I am following drafters up the

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Speaker 2: board here, maybe slightly behind them the whole way. I

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Speaker 2: did not manage to draft any Matt McLain early in

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Speaker 2: draft season because even in that good year back in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, he was striking out a lot twenty

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Speaker 2: nine percent of the time. The hard hit rate of

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Speaker 2: forty two percent was good, but nothing too special. So

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Speaker 2: he was a guy that you were hoping was going

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Speaker 2: to make some progress probably in one of those two

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Speaker 2: areas to really reliably be a twenty five twenty five

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Speaker 2: kind of guy who could even get higher than that.

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Speaker 2: It was sixteen homers and fourteen steals in eighty nine

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Speaker 2: games as a rookie. Then he missed that entire season,

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Speaker 2: and then he came back, and honestly, the underlying skills

358
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,520
Speaker 2: weren't that different. That that was the worry for me.

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Speaker 2: The strikeout rates still twenty nine percent. The hard hit rate,

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Speaker 2: oh boy, it went down from forty two to forty

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Speaker 2: one percent. Basically the same player, and the results just

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Speaker 2: weren't there so early draft season I just wasn't seeing it.

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Speaker 2: It's really the fact that he's making way more contact

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Speaker 2: this spring. An eleven percent strikeout rate, if he just

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Speaker 2: gets down to you know, twenty three percent, dish somewhere

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Speaker 2: pretty close to league average. This is a different sort

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Speaker 2: of player, somebody who could reliably post a pretty decent

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Speaker 2: batting average. And of course, if you hit the ball

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Speaker 2: more often, you'll probably hit more homers too. So this,

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Speaker 2: this version of Matt McLain that strikes out all the

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Speaker 2: time and only has barely better than league average hard

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Speaker 2: hit rates, that doesn't do a lot for me. But

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Speaker 2: I've seen enough. It's only seventeen spring games. Don't want

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Speaker 2: to overreact too much, but eleven percent is a really

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Speaker 2: good mark. This is not just somebody who's shaving a

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Speaker 2: couple points off their strikeout right. This is somebody who

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Speaker 2: seems to be coming in with a whole new approach,

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Speaker 2: and that has me pretty excited.

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Speaker 1: The contact rates are through the roof. They were kind

380
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Speaker 1: of below average for his first couple of seasons zone

381
00:17:15,840 --> 00:17:19,399
Speaker 1: contact eighty three, eighty two point seven, eighty one point three,

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Speaker 1: sit ninety five point five, with the swinging strike rate

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Speaker 1: below four percent. Like he seems, I agree, like a

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Speaker 1: different hitter this year. What would be your TapouT range?

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Speaker 1: Would it he isi the top one hundred? Would it

386
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,960
Speaker 1: be one twenty eighty five? Like, what's the number for you?

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Speaker 1: Where if he gets to that price, you'd say somebody

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Speaker 1: else can have him.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I'm just looking at where I have him in

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Speaker 2: the rankings, and I think if we did another update

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Speaker 2: after this last Friday, I'd be moving him up because

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Speaker 2: I only had him at one forty there, I'd comfortably

393
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Speaker 2: push him up pretty close to one hundred or so,

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Speaker 2: which would still have well if he's going to one

395
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Speaker 2: twenty one at the main event, then I would actually

396
00:17:55,560 --> 00:17:57,800
Speaker 2: be able to get him some so maybe one hundred

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00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,720
Speaker 2: and one to twenty somewhere in there, going around some

398
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,760
Speaker 2: other middle infielders who at that point of the draft

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Speaker 2: you're starting to get some players who are certainly imperfect,

400
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,640
Speaker 2: you know, at Trevor Story for example, going around one

401
00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 2: sixteen in the main event, Saddan Rafaela won twenty one,

402
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 2: somewhere in that range where the guys do come with

403
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Speaker 2: questions but real upside. It's just a lot easier to

404
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Speaker 2: see the upside with McLean if he's actually making contact

405
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Speaker 2: with the ball.

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Speaker 1: I agree, yeah, I think one twenty one thirty, especially

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Speaker 1: with how bad second base is, it's awful locking that

408
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Speaker 1: in in the early portion of your draft and not

409
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Speaker 1: having to go diving in the in the bargain vent,

410
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,439
Speaker 1: I think is a viable strategy this year. It's between

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Speaker 1: second and third for the worst position, and I lean second. Well,

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Speaker 1: I guess I kind of go back and forth on

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Speaker 1: it a little bit. Second has some deeper names. Third

414
00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:46,680
Speaker 1: is maybe a little more top heavy, but in any event,

415
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,440
Speaker 1: they're both horrible. Lock them down early if you can.

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00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 1: Once we move on to Daniel Polensi, a guy who

417
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Speaker 1: really got the WBC bump especially in NFBC leagues. I

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Speaker 1: was kind of surprised just doing my home league last

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00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,720
Speaker 1: night on Yahoo data Poalencia. I think he went at

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Speaker 1: one twenty five, one thirty or so. He has a

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Speaker 1: one fifty four Yahoo ADP sixty three in the NFBC

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Speaker 1: main event. I think a lot of that is due

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Speaker 1: to how he performed, especially in the final against the

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Speaker 1: United States, but also throughout the WBC. He was kind

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Speaker 1: of discounted too heavily throughout most of the draft season.

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Speaker 1: I thought when I first started drafting for the year

427
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Speaker 1: that maybe there was an injury I was missing or something,

428
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Speaker 1: because he seemed to be going well beyond all the

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Speaker 1: other closers. And yet now Dana Poalencia is right in

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Speaker 1: that mix with the first closers, maybe below the Durans

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Speaker 1: and Smiths of the world, but firmly in that second tier. Eric,

432
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,040
Speaker 1: Is he somebody that you would be willing to pay

433
00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:39,800
Speaker 1: for with this increased price? Sixty five is a pretty

434
00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 1: spicy number for Dana Palencia.

435
00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:44,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is. And maybe that's a touch too far

436
00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,400
Speaker 2: for me, but I totally understand it. I think that's

437
00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 2: much closer to the rains he should be going in

438
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:51,480
Speaker 2: The reason he was at such a discount early in

439
00:19:51,560 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 2: draft season, I assume, is because Palencia, while he did

440
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,400
Speaker 2: claim the Cubs closer job at one point last year,

441
00:19:57,440 --> 00:20:00,760
Speaker 2: he also hit the il with a shoulders late in

442
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,360
Speaker 2: the year, and when he came back in the playoffs,

443
00:20:03,400 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: the Cubs were actually using him as this high leverage

444
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:07,639
Speaker 2: kind of guy. He was coming in in like the

445
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 2: fifth inning. They were still playing his closer music though

446
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:12,560
Speaker 2: over the speakers as he was entering the game, so

447
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,719
Speaker 2: it was pretty clear that the team still viewed him

448
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 2: as their number one reliever. It wasn't until mid February

449
00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,560
Speaker 2: it looks like that he was actually officially named the

450
00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:24,679
Speaker 2: Cubs closer, and so it's taken some time for the

451
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 2: draft market to respond to that. Again, this is the

452
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,560
Speaker 2: guy who's had what we call it maybe two thirds

453
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:34,199
Speaker 2: of one season looking like a top closer once that

454
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 2: uncertainty's gone, though, he certainly looks like a closer to me,

455
00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 2: very much closer type stuff. Throws, throws incredibly hard, has

456
00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 2: excellent stuff plus rates, high twenties strikeout rates, feels like

457
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 2: somebody who could strike out even more batters with the

458
00:20:51,680 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 2: kind of velocity he has, and we saw he can

459
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,680
Speaker 2: certainly step up in a big moment in the WBC.

460
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,000
Speaker 2: The only angering question for me is what do we

461
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,800
Speaker 2: do about a guy who has a recent arm injury

462
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,240
Speaker 2: and who ramped up all the way to the two

463
00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 2: highest leverage appearances of his career in mid March on

464
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:17,359
Speaker 2: back to back days. A minor concern there. I would say,

465
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:21,639
Speaker 2: if we're seeing any reduced velocity from Palencia in his

466
00:21:21,720 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 2: first few appearances, there might be more reason to worry

467
00:21:25,119 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 2: than there would be for someone else. But until we

468
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: see that from a skills perspective, from the perspective that

469
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 2: he has a very clear job, from the perspective of

470
00:21:34,800 --> 00:21:37,800
Speaker 2: he has that job for one of the better projected

471
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:41,120
Speaker 2: teams in the league. There aren't many closers above him.

472
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 2: It's just some minor reliability concerns. The stuff is absolutely there,

473
00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 2: and he absolutely looks the part.

474
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:50,679
Speaker 1: I think. I'm with you. I think sixty five might

475
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:52,399
Speaker 1: be a little bit too much for me, But if

476
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 1: he's in the seventies or eighties, I think I would

477
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:58,199
Speaker 1: take a shot there. But that WBC hype was some

478
00:21:58,280 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: of the most extreme. He might have been the guy

479
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 1: from the WBC who got more hype than anybody else,

480
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,879
Speaker 1: just in the immediate aftermath in those few drafts that

481
00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 1: took place in a few days following the WBC. Luis

482
00:22:09,320 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 1: Robert Junior is the next guy on the list. And

483
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,479
Speaker 1: you know, we've talked about guys mostly who have been

484
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,760
Speaker 1: impressive in spring or they really showed up in the WBC.

485
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,440
Speaker 1: Luis Robert has pretty much been Louise Robert of the

486
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 1: last couple of years. To this point in spring. It's

487
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 1: only seven games in twenty three played appearances, but a

488
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:25,520
Speaker 1: thirty percent strikeout rate. He has not barreled the ball yet,

489
00:22:25,680 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 1: an eighty five WRC plus a little bit, and yet

490
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,360
Speaker 1: his price is slowly trending upwards over the last couple

491
00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 1: of weeks. If you look at Yahoo, his ADP has

492
00:22:33,560 --> 00:22:36,880
Speaker 1: one forty four in the NFBC Main Event one ten

493
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,800
Speaker 1: for lou Bob. I have found myself drafting him that

494
00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 1: power speed mix with still some batting average upside. Between

495
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,439
Speaker 1: twenty twenty one and twenty twenty three, he hit three

496
00:22:45,560 --> 00:22:48,240
Speaker 1: thirty eight, two eighty four and two sixty four. I

497
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:50,119
Speaker 1: don't know if that version of him is totally gone,

498
00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:52,120
Speaker 1: but it exists at least. What was the old Ron

499
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: Shander line, if you've displayed the skills, then you own

500
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,199
Speaker 1: it and you can show it again at some point.

501
00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 1: Still a relatively young guy and getting out of Chicago,

502
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 1: I think was a huge thing for me, especially after

503
00:23:00,760 --> 00:23:03,360
Speaker 1: seeing what Andrew Vaughan did. So I'm kind of ignoring

504
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: some of the spring performance from Luis Robert. I drafted

505
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: him in my home league. I've drafted him a bunch

506
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 1: to this point of the season. Is there a chance

507
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: that Louise Robert Junior is just still not great this year?

508
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,200
Speaker 1: You think, and he gives you another White Sox esque

509
00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 1: eighty five WRC plus season, or do you really think

510
00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 1: that he is going to turn it around this year

511
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:23,200
Speaker 1: the way I do.

512
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: Well, there is absolutely a chance of that happening. I

513
00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:30,240
Speaker 2: haven't actually drafted him anywhere, even though I've ranked him competitively.

514
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 2: Maybe one of those guys who where it comes down

515
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,640
Speaker 2: to actually collecting on his name I chicking out every time.

516
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 2: The problem with Luis Robert for me is it basically

517
00:23:39,200 --> 00:23:42,680
Speaker 2: just requires faith and narrative to draft him because the

518
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,399
Speaker 2: numbers last couple of years is just not good enough

519
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,920
Speaker 2: for the region of the draft. You have to take

520
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 2: him in and there's some durability questions as well. The

521
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 2: one hundred and ten games he played last year are

522
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 2: the second most he's ever played in his career. So,

523
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 2: if you're a Louise Robert believer, so much of the

524
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 2: reason why you like him has to be because you're

525
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 2: basically throwing out his recent stats with the White Sox

526
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:12,239
Speaker 2: and saying, this guy was effectively depressed or something. He

527
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: was in a terrible working environment and he was not

528
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 2: at his best. I mean, I'm sure many listeners can

529
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 2: relate to that. If things aren't great at work, if

530
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: you don't like your coworkers, if they're not very good

531
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 2: at their jobs, if your boss isn't great, whatever, you're

532
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: probably not going to be at one hundred percent. So

533
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 2: if you're willing to buy the narrative and say that

534
00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:33,880
Speaker 2: that wasn't actually Luis Robert, the Luis Robert we saw

535
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 2: earlier in his career when he was happier, when times

536
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:38,879
Speaker 2: were good, that's the real guy. And now he's on

537
00:24:38,920 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 2: a good team again. Sure, I totally understand it. It's

538
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,160
Speaker 2: just a question of how much are you really willing

539
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: to draft your fantasy teams based on those sort of factors.

540
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 2: Since he's going outside the top one hundred. I wouldn't

541
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,880
Speaker 2: rule it out, and I think that a batting average

542
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 2: closer to two fifty is certainly possible from a guy

543
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,320
Speaker 2: whose strikeout rate has really been all over the place.

544
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 2: It was as low as twenty nineteen percent a couple

545
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,000
Speaker 2: of years early in his career, it was high as

546
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,679
Speaker 2: thirty three percent two years ago, it was in the

547
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,560
Speaker 2: middle twenty six percent last year, and he still maintains

548
00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,760
Speaker 2: above average Baoler rates and can run. So there are

549
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 2: some pieces of the puzzle here, but the overall production

550
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 2: and the durability has just not been there for a

551
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 2: guy who's being picked in this range for a few years.

552
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: So if you're a narrative guy, the narrative is very compelling,

553
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:29,840
Speaker 2: but you better be a narrative guy if you're going

554
00:25:29,880 --> 00:25:30,879
Speaker 2: to draft Luise Robert.

555
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, he is the most probably the most vibes based

556
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: pick of the year exactly. You know, I feel pretty

557
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: good about it, but I also have to acknowledge this

558
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 1: could be a guy that you're thinking about dropping in

559
00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: the middle of the season. You know, the Mets are

560
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 1: also probably not going to hit him at the top

561
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,120
Speaker 1: of the order. I've seen various lineups where he's hitting

562
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 1: six through eight. So if he's not performing and he's

563
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 1: at the bottom of the order, there is a chance

564
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,439
Speaker 1: where Luise Robert is just a huge bust. The other

565
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,920
Speaker 1: side of that coin is he's out of Chicago, he's

566
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 1: now free, and he gives you a thirty thirty season

567
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,680
Speaker 1: and hits two seventy five and he's a third round

568
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,359
Speaker 1: player next year. There's a very wide range of outcomes.

569
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: He's not a player i'd want to be heavily heavily

570
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 1: invested in, but I do have a couple shares and

571
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 1: I'm hopeful that we will see a turnaround. Now I'll

572
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: llah Andrew Vaughn, but the twenty twenty six version, now

573
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 1: Ryan Pepio. Full disclosure. I put this sheet together last

574
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 1: night before we heard that Ryan Pepio was going to

575
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 1: start of the injured Listen debated pulling him off the sheet,

576
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: but I figured people are still going to want to

577
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 1: draft Ryan Pepio. Let's talk about him. It's a hip injury.

578
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 1: I don't think it's too serious, but they are going

579
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 1: to be putting Joe Boyle in the rotation, not Ian

580
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 1: Seymour because they're doing everything they can to piss me

581
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: off at this point of the season. I have a

582
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: ton of Ian seymore if you hadn't figured it out.

583
00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 1: But Ryan Pepio, I mean, the skill set I think

584
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: is there for him to be successful. It's just now,

585
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 1: do you want to draft him going into the season

586
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 1: with an injury. His ADP had been on the rise

587
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 1: one oh four in the main event compared to one

588
00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: forty five on Yahoo. I tend to not want to

589
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,040
Speaker 1: stockpile injuries in March, but when it's not an arm injury,

590
00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:58,200
Speaker 1: I could be talked into it if the price comes

591
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: down enough. Eric, whereould that price have to come down

592
00:27:00,800 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: for you to want to take a shot on Ryan

593
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: Pepio and your remaining drafts?

594
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 2: That's a good question. Real quick. Should mention that the

595
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 2: two starts that Joe Boyle is going to get here

596
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 2: looks like at Saint Louis and at Minnesota. So if

597
00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 2: you're at all willing to put Joe Boyle on your roster,

598
00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 2: this is an interesting time to do it. But as

599
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:21,920
Speaker 2: for Pepio, it's an interesting one. I think a lot

600
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 2: of the appeal with Pepio comes from the fact that

601
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: the Rays are moving back to Tropicano Field, which is

602
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 2: a great place to pitch, and he still managed pretty

603
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: good three eighty six ERA one sixteen whip last year

604
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 2: under the hood wasn't too amazing though. The strikeouts are

605
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 2: a little better than average, but only twenty four point

606
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 2: six percent. That comes with a few too many walks

607
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 2: nine percent, a slightly below average ground ball rate. Pretty

608
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 2: Much all the ERA estimators for two years in a

609
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 2: row now have been right around four. I don't think

610
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,840
Speaker 2: this is a particularly special pitcher, So if there's not

611
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: a high ceiling, and theoretically there's a low floor with

612
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: a guy who's currently injured, then it's pretty easy to

613
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:02,399
Speaker 2: ignore him and let him be someone else's problem. That said,

614
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 2: hip inflammation is all they're calling it right now, of

615
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:08,640
Speaker 2: all the injuries a pitcher can have. I mean, that's

616
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: got to be one of the mildest possible ones, right

617
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:14,680
Speaker 2: They haven't even called it a strain inflammation' that's the

618
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,760
Speaker 2: sort of thing you come back from in the minimum

619
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 2: amount of time, and it's a hip. It's nothing on

620
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: his arm. I mean, this might even be less of

621
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: a problem than say a blister, because blisters can come back, right,

622
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 2: So I don't think that you should move Pepio far

623
00:28:27,840 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 2: down on your roster or on your rankings, I should say.

624
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:34,159
Speaker 2: And if you're in a league with IL spots, I

625
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: am a big proponent of taking at least one or

626
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,479
Speaker 2: two currently injured players to fill those spots, because then

627
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: you get to start the season with extra players. You

628
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: take Ryan Pepio, you move him to the IL, you

629
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: get him back in two weeks, and in that time

630
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: you've got to carry an extra player, take an extra

631
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 2: shot on some high upside player at the end of

632
00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 2: your draft, or I guess right after the end of

633
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,600
Speaker 2: your draft. You move Pepio as soon as the draft ends,

634
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 2: and then go add somebody real quick. And if you

635
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 2: are going to take that strategy, filling your IL spots

636
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 2: with guys who are coming back soon is way more

637
00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 2: interactive than filling them with you know, the Hunter Greens

638
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: of the world, who you're hoping you get back in July,

639
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 2: because then you just got to sit on it for

640
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: three months and hope there are no setbacks. I'm not

641
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: really worried of significant setbacks here with Pepio. So he's

642
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 2: somebody that I wasn't all that drawn to in the

643
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 2: first place. I think he's fine, but nothing special but

644
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 2: league dependent. Here it could actually be somebody you specifically

645
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: target because others will be scared of the injury tag

646
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 2: even though it's not a very bad injury, and it's

647
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:36,440
Speaker 2: a really useful way to play in your roster, just

648
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 2: to sneak an extra player in there.

649
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like doing that as well. I play a

650
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: lot on the NFBC, so stashing players I don't. I

651
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 1: don't think about it as much. I got a couple

652
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: of leagues that are not NFBC. We're talking tout wars

653
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: in my home league, where you can stash and there

654
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 1: is IL, and I think the majority of people who

655
00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 1: are listening will have at least a couple of IL spots.

656
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: So maybe if you were an interes and happy before,

657
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: maybe you can be now, depending on where the price

658
00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,920
Speaker 1: comes down to. Because he had been close to a

659
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: top one hundred pick one hundred fifty one to fifty range,

660
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: if he follows us at the top two hundred without

661
00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: really that much worry about the long term outlook from

662
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: that ARM perspective, you can see him being a decent

663
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: pick here, depending on where that price falls to. Guys,

664
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: before we keep it going, I wanted to remind you

665
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,440
Speaker 1: that if you have any drafts left to do over

666
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: the next few days, do them on fan tracks. They

667
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,880
Speaker 1: are the home of fantasy sports with offseason trades, real

668
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: time updates, and seamless player transactions keep the excitement alive

669
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five days a year. The customizations

670
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,640
Speaker 1: are I think the best that you can find anywhere.

671
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: You can have rosters that are massive, you can have

672
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: two hundred plus manager leagues, you can have duplicate players

673
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,000
Speaker 1: if you want to go that route. There are so

674
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 1: many different unique things you can do on fan tracks,

675
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,320
Speaker 1: and I highly recommend if you are going to be

676
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 1: signing up for leagues in the next couple days, go

677
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 1: play them on fan tracks. Fantracks dot com slash Fantasy

678
00:30:57,080 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 1: Pros is the place that is fantracks dot com slash

679
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros. A couple more players here to round it out,

680
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,720
Speaker 1: and I had to include Sal Stewart, Who's a guy

681
00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: that I've kind of gone back and forth on a

682
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 1: little bit throughout the offseason. When they signed Aohannio Suarez,

683
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: I kind of put my face in my palm and thought,

684
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 1: what has Sal Stewart done? Who deserved this? But I

685
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:17,800
Speaker 1: think that Sal Stewart is going to be into the

686
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:20,720
Speaker 1: mix there as well. For Cincinnati, I think Spencer Steer

687
00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:22,840
Speaker 1: is actually the guy who will be the odd man

688
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: out with Sal Stewart playing first, maybe some DH days

689
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: mixing it up. I think maybe even he plays like a

690
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: little bit of second some third, Like he can bounce

691
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: around all over the diamond. Eleven games at first, six

692
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: games at third last year. The thing that people kind

693
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,920
Speaker 1: of forget about Sal Stewart. Maybe it's because he's two

694
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five pounds, but he's got a bit

695
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,640
Speaker 1: of speed on him as well. He's an elite power bat.

696
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 1: But he's still seventeen bases in the minors last year.

697
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: He's still in four so far in spring training this year,

698
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 1: to go along with three homers in the three to

699
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: twenty six batting average. He's got a one to fifty

700
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: one ADP in the main in compared to two poh

701
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 1: eight on Yahoo. I've drafted a bunch of him over

702
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: my last three or four drafts. I think I've taken

703
00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: him two or three times, and I'm fully bought in

704
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: at this point. Has jeff Erickson sold you on Sal

705
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: Stewart throughout your show strow Draft season here.

706
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 2: Eric, Yeah, I got a couple Reds fans Jeff Erickson

707
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 2: and Clay link Over on the Roadwire team. Certainly a

708
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 2: lot of Sal Stewart fans. James Anderson, our prospect guy,

709
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 2: has been a big fan of him as well. Man,

710
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 2: I wish I had more Sal Stewart. I only have

711
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: a little bit, and I wanted a lot. I would

712
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 2: maybe push back against the idea that he has speed.

713
00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 2: He was fourteenth percent tile in sprint speed last year

714
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,400
Speaker 2: and didn't attempt a single steal in eighteen games. But

715
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:33,600
Speaker 2: it's a great point that he's running this spring, and

716
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 2: we saw, you know, the Josh Naylors and one Sotos

717
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: of the world. They don't need to be fast to run.

718
00:32:39,320 --> 00:32:42,400
Speaker 2: Augustine Ramirez as well. It's a new era of baseball,

719
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: so no how on the base pass might be all

720
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 2: you need. If he really is going to run like

721
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: he's shown this spring, then man, I wish I had

722
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: way more Sal Stewart than I have. Even if he

723
00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: only steals five bases, I still wish that I had

724
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: plenty of Sal Stuart because I think this bat is

725
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 2: really good, really well rounded. He did strike out twenty

726
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 2: six percent of the time in that eighteen game debut

727
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 2: last year, But if you look at his minor league strikeouts,

728
00:33:09,600 --> 00:33:12,960
Speaker 2: they're in the mid teens pretty much every year, and

729
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,480
Speaker 2: with some pretty good walk rates as well, and with

730
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: some real power. Twenty homers in one hundred and eighteen

731
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 2: games last year had a fifty two and a half

732
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: percent hard hit rate, and his small big league sample

733
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 2: last season almost an identical mark this spring as well,

734
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: And this spring the strikeout rate is back down to

735
00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: fourteen percent. So this is somebody I think has a

736
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 2: very well rounded bat. Maybe not elite power or elite contact,

737
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 2: but a very good combination of both of those in

738
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:44,720
Speaker 2: a great park. Some minor questions about playing time if

739
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 2: he does slump. The Reds have enough players that they

740
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:49,479
Speaker 2: don't need him. But I think he's going to hit,

741
00:33:49,520 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: and I think if he hits, he's going to play.

742
00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,400
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you. I think Spencer Steer looks

743
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 2: like one who could be the odd man out if

744
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 2: anybody's to lose a bunch of playing time. I think

745
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,000
Speaker 2: sal Stewart has a lot more upside with his bat.

746
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna play a ton in a great

747
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,680
Speaker 2: park and hit the ball for both power and average.

748
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: I think he's somebody we could be taking a good

749
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:09,879
Speaker 2: deal earlier next year.

750
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that a top one hundred pick next year.

751
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: Maybe he's not going in the same range as the

752
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 1: other elite first baseman, but I could see him going

753
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: right behind the Olsens and the Harpers and Alonzo's for

754
00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,879
Speaker 1: the next couple of years and eventually surpassing them as

755
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 1: he's about a decade their junior. So I'm in on

756
00:34:27,160 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: Salz Stewart. I've gone back and forth a little bit

757
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 1: worried about the playing time, like you mentioned there, but

758
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 1: I'm bought in at this point and if I got burned,

759
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 1: then I get burned. We have a couple of guys

760
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: left to mention, and they don't even have an ADP

761
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:41,879
Speaker 1: on Yahoo. That's how deep are going in the player pool.

762
00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 1: But they're both massive risers if you're looking at the

763
00:34:44,280 --> 00:34:46,799
Speaker 1: main event, and even in Yahoo drafts my home league

764
00:34:46,880 --> 00:34:49,240
Speaker 1: last night, they were both taken. Carson venge Will started

765
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:51,799
Speaker 1: off here a two ninety two ADP in the main event.

766
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 1: He has been announced as the Mets opening day right fielder,

767
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,800
Speaker 1: and I worry a little bit about the power output.

768
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:01,200
Speaker 1: He had only fifteen home runs throughout the Miners last

769
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,799
Speaker 1: year at more than five hundred plate appearances, no home

770
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: runs in spraying only a three percent barrel rate. But

771
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,319
Speaker 1: he's hitting three sixty six, he's walking and getting you

772
00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 1: a four to thirty five on base rate. Last year

773
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:13,840
Speaker 1: in the Miners, despite only fifteen home runs, he had

774
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 1: eighty seven runs twenty two steals. He hit two eighty one.

775
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,719
Speaker 1: Really good plate discipline. So I'm kind of buying in

776
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: here that Carson Bench is a really good pick in

777
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: the last couple rounds of your draft, regardless of the

778
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: depth of it, getting a piece of a lineup that

779
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,040
Speaker 1: I think is gonna be very good. However, lou bab performs,

780
00:35:30,080 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 1: You got Boba, Schett, you got Soto, you got Lindor.

781
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:34,880
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be really really nice at

782
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 1: the top there. And getting a piece of that lineup

783
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,320
Speaker 1: in Bench, I think it's a good idea. Eric, have

784
00:35:38,360 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 1: you found yourself drafting him at all?

785
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 2: I have not yet, And I'm worried. Is this anti

786
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 2: Mets bias as a Phillies fan? Am? I just I

787
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: don't like how he pronounces it in its name. It

788
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 2: looks like it should be Bengi and it's just Bene,

789
00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: and I just don't know what to do with that.

790
00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 2: I don't really have a good rational reason for not

791
00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 2: drafting Carson Bench. He's somebody who has real prospect pedigree.

792
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 2: Looking at his future tool grades over at fangrafts, basically

793
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 2: everything's at fifty five future fifty five hit future fifty

794
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:10,640
Speaker 2: five raw power speed fields. That means above average, not

795
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 2: elite anywhere, but somebody who does potentially everything at his peak.

796
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: I'm not sure we're quite at his peak yet. Particularly

797
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 2: the power doesn't seem like it's there to me. You

798
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 2: mentioned fifteen homers in over five hundred plate appearances last

799
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 2: year in the miners is something, but a lot of

800
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:30,280
Speaker 2: those homers came early in the season at the Double

801
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 2: A level, not showing big power, but is showing very

802
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 2: good plate discipline. Eighteen percent strikeout rate to go the

803
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 2: thirteen percent walk grade in the miners last year. That's encouraging,

804
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 2: especially for a young player to already have that skill.

805
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:46,400
Speaker 2: That's a good platform to add other skills to. Don't

806
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 2: love the park in Queen's there, don't love I guess

807
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 2: the potential for a platoon, but if he's going late

808
00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,200
Speaker 2: in drafts that you get a strong side platoon guy,

809
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: maybe it's a Tyrone Taylor or something new starts against FDS.

810
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 2: He'll probably play enough to steal a decent number of

811
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,399
Speaker 2: bases and hit some homers. I just don't know if

812
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: the overall output is going to be all that impressive.

813
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 2: I would compare him to say, maybe a Brandon Marsh

814
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,960
Speaker 2: or something on the Phillies. It looks like he's going

815
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:21,520
Speaker 2: a good thirty forty picks ahead of Brandon Marsh in

816
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:23,759
Speaker 2: the NFBC main event, and I guess that's because we

817
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 2: know what Marsh is. He's a decent, strongside platoon outfielder

818
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 2: who will hit some homers and steal some bases and

819
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: have an okay average. We feel like we've settled on

820
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 2: who Brandon Marsh is. My expected outcome for Bene would

821
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 2: be something very Marsh esque, but I guess you take

822
00:37:40,360 --> 00:37:43,280
Speaker 2: the unknown of somebody who could be a little better.

823
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 2: I don't see the potential for a huge rookie season here,

824
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 2: but I do see somebody who has a pretty good

825
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 2: chance of being pretty productive right away.

826
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he's stews more towards that the deeper

827
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:59,319
Speaker 1: NFBC rosters where you got the five outfielders, and you

828
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 1: know it's a thirty round draft as opposed to maybe

829
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty four rounds for the average player.

830
00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: But I think there is some potential for value if

831
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 1: he meets let's say the ZIPS projections gives you thirteen

832
00:38:11,040 --> 00:38:14,359
Speaker 1: homers eleven steals with a decent batting average, I could

833
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 1: see him paying off. But I think I think he

834
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,720
Speaker 1: does skew a little bit more towards the fifteen team player,

835
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 1: the NFBC player. I want to wrap up by talking

836
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: about Paul Sewald because he has been one of the

837
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:27,319
Speaker 1: biggest risers. Maybe the biggest riser is certainly in terms

838
00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,680
Speaker 1: of live main events that took place in Las Vegas.

839
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,280
Speaker 1: Paul Seawald has gone up to a top two hundred

840
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,760
Speaker 1: and fifty pick in the main event. Not being drafted

841
00:38:34,760 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: on Yahoo. He was buried in the pre ranks, and

842
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: a guy in that home league that I mentioned got

843
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 1: him a round pick two seventy five or something right

844
00:38:41,520 --> 00:38:43,040
Speaker 1: at the end of the draft, and nobody was happy

845
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 1: about that. But Paul SEAWALLD. I mean I hadn't really

846
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 1: even considered him for a lot of draft season. I'll

847
00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: be honest, I wasn't really focused so much on the

848
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,640
Speaker 1: Dbacks closer. I got a couple of late Dre Jamison

849
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: shares and draft champions, but nothing really to write home

850
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: about there in terms of my interest. But it looks

851
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: like Paul Sewald is gonna be the guy, a guy

852
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 1: who has eighty six career saves, including thirty four in

853
00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. I just don't know if I'm really

854
00:39:06,800 --> 00:39:08,560
Speaker 1: sold on him at this age. He's going to be

855
00:39:08,600 --> 00:39:10,879
Speaker 1: thirty six years old. The strikeout rate that we've seen

856
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:13,600
Speaker 1: so far in spring is only fifteen percent, so maybe

857
00:39:13,640 --> 00:39:15,600
Speaker 1: showing a little bit of age related wear and tear.

858
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I want to be paying the

859
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 1: elevated price for Paul Sewall. I'd almost rather just avoid

860
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 1: the situation altogether. Eric, would you be willing to take

861
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 1: him if you need that second closer and he's there

862
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: at pick two fifty?

863
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:30,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think if I'm in a situation where I've

864
00:39:30,200 --> 00:39:32,160
Speaker 2: gotten to that point in the draft and I don't

865
00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 2: have my second closer, absolutely he's a fine option to

866
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: turn two. I would rather not put myself in that

867
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 2: situation because even though it seems like he's probably the guy.

868
00:39:42,320 --> 00:39:44,839
Speaker 2: I still think as of recording, we can't say more

869
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 2: than probably. I think the latest news was that the

870
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 2: manager Tory Levolo mentioned him as a potential candidate, and

871
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: he looks like the logical choice. But there's still a chance,

872
00:39:57,239 --> 00:39:59,879
Speaker 2: you know, twenty five percent chance, forty percent chance, whatever

873
00:40:00,160 --> 00:40:02,719
Speaker 2: is that it turns out to be someone else, or

874
00:40:02,760 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 2: that Seawell gets the first opportunity, blows it and then

875
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 2: Kevin Ginkle comes in and gets the next two. So

876
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:10,759
Speaker 2: it's not a position I think you want to put

877
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 2: yourself in. But if you fall into this point in

878
00:40:13,200 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 2: the draft, getting somebody who is the favorite, probably we

879
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 2: can say, the clear favorite, who has saved games for

880
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: this very same team in the past, and whose velocity

881
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 2: did tick up a little bit again this spring. Part

882
00:40:27,000 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 2: of the problem last year is that he was all

883
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 2: the way down to ninety point six on his fastball,

884
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 2: and that just doesn't work anymore. He's never somebody who

885
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 2: had big velocity, But even getting him back in the

886
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 2: ninety two ninety two and a half range that he

887
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 2: was at his peak would be pretty big. I just

888
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: don't see a big difference between him and say a

889
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,600
Speaker 2: Taylor Rogers in Minnesota, somebody who was also pretty old,

890
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 2: not the guy he once was, but is back in

891
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 2: a position where he's saved games for that exact team

892
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:58,919
Speaker 2: before and is in a bullpen where nobody really stands out.

893
00:41:00,200 --> 00:41:02,680
Speaker 2: Rogers maybe a little bit more attractive to me, But

894
00:41:02,719 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 2: it seems like more of the high stakes drafters are

895
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 2: looking Seawald's way, and they probably are onto something there.

896
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 2: I know that in my Earth League Glarf, which drafted

897
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:19,440
Speaker 2: back in February. Shout out to your Toronto based NERF

898
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,000
Speaker 2: League Joe that finally took Glarf down. Last year. We

899
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:28,200
Speaker 2: drafted Glarf in late February, Policeawald went undrafted, and he

900
00:41:28,239 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 2: went for over one hundred dollars in our first fab

901
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: over the weekend. One hundred dollars out of a thousand

902
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 2: dollars budget. So if you're scrounging around for closers, I

903
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:40,439
Speaker 2: think you could do a lot worse, But we can't

904
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 2: ignore the fact that this is not a sure thing,

905
00:41:43,120 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 2: and you'd still do much better if you actually got

906
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 2: two closers you can trust.

907
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: This might be the worst year for closers in my time,

908
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 1: certainly making content, but maybe my time doing fantasy in general,

909
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:59,000
Speaker 1: you got to pay exorbitant prices. Even in home league settings.

910
00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: You're seeing closers go way higher than normal, and they

911
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 1: are about ten teams where we don't know what the

912
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:05,759
Speaker 1: hell is going to happen, Arizona being one of the

913
00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: Minnesota kind of being another. Now we had the first

914
00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:11,520
Speaker 1: fab run on Sunday. I took Rogers. I think it

915
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 1: was seventy five seventy seven. I paid for him in

916
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 1: a twelve teamer, which I didn't feel great about, but

917
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: it was a team where I had drafted Dennis Santana,

918
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 1: and with the news about him the other day, I

919
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: wanted to get another guy that doesn't have a sure job,

920
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:24,920
Speaker 1: so I figured I'd spend seventy seven on that. But

921
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 1: no closers are just awful this year. And if you

922
00:42:27,800 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 1: can take a couple early and avoid playing in these streets,

923
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,240
Speaker 1: I probably would. But if you're playing in a casual

924
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 1: format like on Yahoo, Paul Sewald still says not ranked

925
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:40,359
Speaker 1: like his ADP has not caught up yet, just because

926
00:42:40,400 --> 00:42:42,799
Speaker 1: there's such a big sample of draft. So last pick

927
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 1: of your draft, I think you could do worse than Seawald,

928
00:42:45,239 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 1: but I'd rather have things taken care of by that stage.

929
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 1: If I can, Eric really appreciate you coming on today. Man,

930
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: Why don't you let the people know what's going on

931
00:42:52,520 --> 00:42:54,000
Speaker 1: in your world and where they can keep up with

932
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:54,800
Speaker 1: your work at Rodowar.

933
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:57,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, thanks for having me on. This was great. Glad

934
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,799
Speaker 2: we got the chance to do a pod together. You

935
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:02,040
Speaker 2: can find me on Twitter at Eric underscore Halterman. That's

936
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:04,400
Speaker 2: Eric with a K. You can find somebody else on

937
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 2: Twitter at Eric with a C underscore Halterman. Not sure

938
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: about his takes. I do my writing over at roadewire

939
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 2: dot com. I host a couple episodes of the Roadewire

940
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:17,359
Speaker 2: Fantasy Baseball Podcast, as well as a couple of our

941
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: shows on SiriusXM on MLB Network Radio and the Fantasy

942
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,279
Speaker 2: Sports Radio Channel. So a lot going on. Excited to

943
00:43:24,320 --> 00:43:27,279
Speaker 2: be talking about real baseball stats in just a couple

944
00:43:27,320 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 2: of days and not just trying to predict how everything

945
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 2: will go and inevitably getting half of it wrong.

946
00:43:32,760 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 1: That's the way it works. If you get sixty percent

947
00:43:34,840 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 1: of your takes right in the space, then your a

948
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,200
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame level analyst. Things are very hard, but

949
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: getting guys like Eric's opinion really makes it easier this

950
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:44,840
Speaker 1: time of year. Make sure you guys are subscribing to

951
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: the channel. We're pushing thirty k subs. I don't know

952
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: if we'll get there before opening day, but if we do,

953
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 1: then Joe and Welsh will probably do something absurd for

954
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: that first show of the season. So follow, subscribe, like, comment,

955
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:56,839
Speaker 1: do all of that great stuff. Make sure you're using

956
00:43:56,880 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 1: the tools at Fantasypros dot com. For Eric Halterman, I'm

957
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 1: Joel Rica. We'll talk to you next time right here

958
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast.

959
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:07,160
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

960
00:44:07,400 --> 00:44:09,760
Speaker 4: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

961
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,759
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962
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,520
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963
00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 4: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

964
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 4: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB