WEBVTT - Wall Street's Unwinding from Russia

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. One of our favorite

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<v Speaker 1>people all time is in studio with us um. She's

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<v Speaker 1>going to tackle some of the most read stories on

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg. One includes about Wall Streets, Russia pull back

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<v Speaker 1>on raveling decades of investment. This is really coming Tim

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<v Speaker 1>on something we talked about yesterday, UH JPMorgan Chase joining

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<v Speaker 1>Goldman Sachs Group and pulling back from Russia in response

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<v Speaker 1>to the country's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent war UH

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<v Speaker 1>in that country. We're joined now by Shinnali Basik, Wall

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<v Speaker 1>Street reporter for Bloomberg News she's with us in the

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. She's only care mentioned some of

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<v Speaker 1>the names there, JP Morgan, Chase, Goldman Sacks, if we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about yesterday. Of course, give us a lay of

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<v Speaker 1>the land right now, an overview of who's doing business

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<v Speaker 1>in Russia and to what extent they're actually pulling out

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<v Speaker 1>now when it comes to the biggest banks. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>very interesting. A little bit of history here is worth

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<v Speaker 1>getting into a lot of these banks, Goldman Sachs, Morgan's only.

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan really got into Russia in the wake of

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<v Speaker 1>the fall of the Soviet Union, and so Goldman and

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<v Speaker 1>JP Morgan they were huge in terms of not just

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<v Speaker 1>helping the Russian government, you know, stave off their debt crisis,

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<v Speaker 1>but also in terms of helping get a very liquid

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<v Speaker 1>underwriting market for a lot of Russian companies. So fast

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<v Speaker 1>forward a couple of decades later, they have built fairly

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<v Speaker 1>robust presences there, but they are much smaller in um

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the whole scope of the operation. So

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<v Speaker 1>for Goldman Sachs, for example, it's only about any employees.

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<v Speaker 1>For Morgan Stanley it's you know, a couple dozen, And

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<v Speaker 1>for JP Morgan, it's a couple of hundred and uh

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<v Speaker 1>for City Group it's much bigger as about three thousand.

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<v Speaker 1>But most of these banks, they started really the retreat

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<v Speaker 1>back in the last time we were talking about sanctions,

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<v Speaker 1>and now they've been back, they have been pulling back,

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<v Speaker 1>and so the exposure is somewhat limited. But with that said,

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<v Speaker 1>as you see by these big funds, there's still billions

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<v Speaker 1>of dollars on the line for a lot of big

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<v Speaker 1>asset managers, which are big clients of the banks. So

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<v Speaker 1>even with these pull backs, you are seeing banks having

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<v Speaker 1>to engage in the market making function of what they

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<v Speaker 1>do and help their clients unwind a lot of these trades.

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<v Speaker 1>Are these banks involved with the oligarchs? That is the

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<v Speaker 1>million dollar questions, Yes, and and and not just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the people who are sanctioned themselves and the people who

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<v Speaker 1>might potentially be sanctioned moving forward. I mean that is

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<v Speaker 1>a very big question because it's not just you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're wealth clients, but you know, are they involved

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<v Speaker 1>in any of the assets that they own, and you

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<v Speaker 1>know to what extent or any of these people's buyers

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<v Speaker 1>on the other side of things, right, So I mean

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<v Speaker 1>I know, that's a very big issue when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to the banks unwinding their derivative trades. For example with VTB.

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<v Speaker 1>On the other side, there are certain banks that have

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<v Speaker 1>asked regulators for an extension so that they could figure

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<v Speaker 1>out how to unwind those trades. It is very complicated,

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<v Speaker 1>even the entities that are not sanctioned. Guys, if you

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<v Speaker 1>look at the way the CDs is trading, there's a

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<v Speaker 1>high risk of default. And so there's there's two kind

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<v Speaker 1>of buckets of things here, things that have sanctions already

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<v Speaker 1>imposed on them, things that might in the future, and

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<v Speaker 1>things that just come with a lot of reputational risks.

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<v Speaker 1>Sounds like an emerging market. No, I'm just thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>the risk reward, which is why, right we see banks

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<v Speaker 1>and others go into these areas. And we probably thought

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<v Speaker 1>because of the walk coming down, you know how many

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<v Speaker 1>decades ago, that it was more of a sure thing

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<v Speaker 1>in a closer move towards a market economy, which we

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<v Speaker 1>have seen. And yet here we are. It's very complicated.

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<v Speaker 1>And even today as I sit here with you, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I've got to say I've been on the phone with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of people in the restructuring world and in

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<v Speaker 1>the fund management world, saying that, you know, they're wondering

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<v Speaker 1>who of their peers, they're wondering if they themselves want

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<v Speaker 1>to buy anything on the cheap right now that's not sanctioned,

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<v Speaker 1>and so it's a very complicated question. They're really worried

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<v Speaker 1>about the reputational risk, which obviously there's a lot of.

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<v Speaker 1>So a Wall Street pull back from Russia is, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>not really the whole story. I want to hit on

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<v Speaker 1>the reputational risk ELEMNTIONALI. You know, you've been on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone with sources, You've been passing through the very carefully

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<v Speaker 1>worded statements that could that come from these banks. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you getting the impression that they're pulling out for good,

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<v Speaker 1>that this is indefinite, or that there is an opportunity

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<v Speaker 1>if tensions ease, to go back in, Because Caroline, I've

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<v Speaker 1>been talking two weeks, for two weeks about the reputational

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<v Speaker 1>risk of of of going back to a place where

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<v Speaker 1>the person in power did something that was so atrocious.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, this is this is on a scale. I

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<v Speaker 1>asked a bank executive the other day. I was like,

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<v Speaker 1>can you compare this to any time in your history?

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<v Speaker 1>And there was just a lot of silence on the phone. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know this is yes because you know is are

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<v Speaker 1>the nineties with the Russia any um comparison right these

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<v Speaker 1>in South Africa divestment, which you know has come up

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit. But this is this is different. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this scale is just so large. And you know the

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<v Speaker 1>other question, the ripple effect that comes of this is

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<v Speaker 1>does this change global geopolitics? Are there other countries they

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<v Speaker 1>need to read? They will with the sanctions day in place. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and and that's the thing at the end. On one hand,

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<v Speaker 1>the very simple answer is if you're sanction nity, the

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<v Speaker 1>government and multiple governments have said no dice so like

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<v Speaker 1>it's as simple as that. But on top of that is,

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<v Speaker 1>you don't if they haven't pulled back already from even

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<v Speaker 1>on the unsanctional individuals. They don't want to find themselves

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<v Speaker 1>on the other end of a fine a few years

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<v Speaker 1>from now. And that is just the least of their problems, right,

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<v Speaker 1>And there are costs of going back and forth. Black Rock,

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<v Speaker 1>Just in context, what do we need to I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they have what tent or they did have tenrillly and

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<v Speaker 1>I think as of the beginning of this year or right,

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<v Speaker 1>from the beginning. It's funny. Leave it to you, Carrol,

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<v Speaker 1>to make sure that we're marking the market. Um so

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<v Speaker 1>get black Rock with more than ten twillion dollars under

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<v Speaker 1>management at the beginning, they see her lost seventeen billion.

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<v Speaker 1>That's only point two per cent of the firm's assets,

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<v Speaker 1>but seventeen billion in the pure dollar terms is a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of money. And if you look at the specific

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<v Speaker 1>funds themselves, yes, the one specifically tied to Russia have

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<v Speaker 1>stopped trading. The ones that are liquid, they've been halted.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's also liquid funds that are still trading that

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<v Speaker 1>still have exposure to Russia, like a m B there

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<v Speaker 1>emerging market fund, which you know, it's exposed to tons

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<v Speaker 1>of different funds around the world, tons of different sovereign debt,

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<v Speaker 1>and is exposed to Russian sovereign bonds. You follow this

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<v Speaker 1>sector just got fifteen seconds. I mean, if there's an

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity of money to be made, would the financial community

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<v Speaker 1>go back in? Do you think real quickly? It's too

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<v Speaker 1>soon to tell. Okay, nicely said, and you've covered a lot.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much, Shinali Bostic, as I said, one

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<v Speaker 1>of our faves Wall Street reporter up Bloomberg News here

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<v Speaker 1>in our interactive broker studio. Check her out at shiny

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<v Speaker 1>Bosk on Twitter. You're listening to Bloomberg Radio. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Way with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick

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<v Speaker 1>Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio south By Southwest. It

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<v Speaker 1>brings together tech, film, music industries gets underway today in Austin, Texas.

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<v Speaker 1>The more than weeklong event is in person for the

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<v Speaker 1>first time in three years. This was supposed to be

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<v Speaker 1>also the first year Ukraine would send an official delegation

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<v Speaker 1>of startups to the event. That plan no tim of course,

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<v Speaker 1>disrupted by the war at home. Sarah McBride profiles some

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<v Speaker 1>of those people who were supposed to be there and

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<v Speaker 1>mostly now is still in Ukraine. She's venture capital reporter

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<v Speaker 1>for Bloomberg News. She joins us on the phone from

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<v Speaker 1>San Francisco. Sarah, there's no probably no better way to

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<v Speaker 1>put this than the way that you wrote about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Really at the beginning of your story. Somebody who was

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<v Speaker 1>supposed to be in Austin, Texas this week, staying in

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<v Speaker 1>an Airbnb now finds herself in the middle of the

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<v Speaker 1>night hearing air raid sirens and waking her two year

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<v Speaker 1>old up and hiding in a bathroom to try to

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<v Speaker 1>stay safe. Yes, that was just the most heart wrenching story.

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<v Speaker 1>She and her high men, who's also a co founder

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<v Speaker 1>of the company, left Kia the day before the attack

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<v Speaker 1>on Ukraine started. They got there two year old, they

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<v Speaker 1>had to find an apartment. He's asking what's going on.

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<v Speaker 1>They tell him it's hide and seek and they have

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<v Speaker 1>to hide in the bathroom and look for dinosaurs there,

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<v Speaker 1>and all the stories they tell him. It was just

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<v Speaker 1>the most surreal feeling. Their whole life has been upended.

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<v Speaker 1>And I was interviewing her over zoom and she could

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<v Speaker 1>just see the news room in the background with everybody

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<v Speaker 1>just going about their business and here she was in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of the war. Just was the most wrenching

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<v Speaker 1>reporting experience. You know, Sarah's something that we grappled with, right,

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<v Speaker 1>because what we do here at Bloomberg is we report

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<v Speaker 1>on companies, what they do. We report on the financial

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<v Speaker 1>markets and world's events how they impact the markets. And

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<v Speaker 1>of course we've done that with the Russian invasion of

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<v Speaker 1>Ukraine the subsequent war. So in reporting out your story, right,

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<v Speaker 1>we cannot forget the humanitarian impact. But you also wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to shed some light on what what these entrepreneurs who

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<v Speaker 1>have created these companies, what they're doing right. And so,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, that startup founder who rents a company called

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<v Speaker 1>EFA makes disposable toothbrushes, and they were getting a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of traction. They were getting into a bunch of hotels

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<v Speaker 1>in the US. She told me they were talking to

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<v Speaker 1>Netflix and she was hoping to use south By Southwest

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<v Speaker 1>to really build on this momentum. Now, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>worrying about her family, she and her employees all over Ukraine,

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<v Speaker 1>it's also her business. She had a shipment of toothbrushes

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<v Speaker 1>that are now stuck in Romania. A bunch of their

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<v Speaker 1>disposable razors are in an office building and TV she

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<v Speaker 1>has no idea if they're safe or not. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the other people I spoke to who are trying to

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<v Speaker 1>juggle dealing with a war and fleeing from their homes

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<v Speaker 1>and trying to solvage what they can at our businesses

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<v Speaker 1>and hoping their businesses make it to the other side

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<v Speaker 1>of this. And uh, they're all at different stages um,

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<v Speaker 1>all experiencing just crazy range of emotions, UM, and many

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<v Speaker 1>of them are still in Ukraine. Many of them had

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<v Speaker 1>to lead in nearby countries like Poland. So, Sarah, what

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<v Speaker 1>what is going to be going on at south By

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<v Speaker 1>Southwest in place of where these Ukrainian entrepreneurs were going

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<v Speaker 1>to be? They were they were supposed to have a

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<v Speaker 1>booth their sponsored by the Ukrainian government. How will they

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<v Speaker 1>be represented? Well? Um? The first notion in the first

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<v Speaker 1>word that many of them got from the ministry. They're

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<v Speaker 1>all on a telegram group chat and they got the

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<v Speaker 1>Ministry of Digital Transformation in Ukraine was supposed to be

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<v Speaker 1>through various grants funding parts of their chips, and they

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<v Speaker 1>got a message saying basically, sorry, we need that money

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<v Speaker 1>for the war efforts. UM, please return it and glory

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<v Speaker 1>to Ukraine. So invade uh. I think at that point, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>their priorities had already shifted from trying to get to

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<v Speaker 1>south By Southwest. But there is one person from the

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<v Speaker 1>ministry who's still going, and there is another representative of

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<v Speaker 1>the startup community there. They were just kind of frantically

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<v Speaker 1>figuring out what to do. They were debating whether to

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<v Speaker 1>have the founders come in by a zoom link to

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<v Speaker 1>pitch the latest I've heard if they're looking for volunteers

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<v Speaker 1>who can pitch on behalf of these startups at south

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<v Speaker 1>By Southwest. But the booth is still going to be there,

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<v Speaker 1>which is impressive. It is incredibly impressive. And so glad

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<v Speaker 1>you were able to bring this story up to us

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<v Speaker 1>and remind us of the work that they're doing. And

0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:54.440
<v Speaker 1>hopefully these individuals um get to put out their companies

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:56.480
<v Speaker 1>at a future of it and just hope that they

0:11:56.559 --> 0:11:59.959
<v Speaker 1>say safe uh, and so do their families. All right, Sarah,

0:12:00.000 --> 0:12:02.480
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Sarah McBride Cheese, VC reporter here

0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:06.680
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg News. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:12:06.720 --> 0:12:11.120
<v Speaker 1>Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:12:11.480 --> 0:12:14.480
<v Speaker 1>Well Today's Bloomberg Big Take. It's also among the most read.

0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.679
<v Speaker 1>It's in the new issue also of Bloomberg Business Week magazine,

0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:20.240
<v Speaker 1>which is now online at business Week, in Bloomberg dot com,

0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.280
<v Speaker 1>also on the Bloomberg terminal and on news stands. It's

0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:28.080
<v Speaker 1>a story about how Well's Fargo left black homeowners behind

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.280
<v Speaker 1>in a pandemic mortgage refinancing boom. Tim Sean Donn and

0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.599
<v Speaker 1>his senior economics writer at Bloomberg News. He's one of

0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:39.199
<v Speaker 1>the bylines on this exhaustively researched and written uh story

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:42.320
<v Speaker 1>in the current issue of Bloomberg Business Week. Sean joins

0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 1>us from our studio in Washington, d C. Sean, I

0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 1>was really shocked to see these numbers, especially, you know,

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:50.959
<v Speaker 1>given that this was over the last two years and

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.080
<v Speaker 1>not something that we think that's you know, more historical.

0:12:53.080 --> 0:12:54.880
<v Speaker 1>So I'm just gonna go right into it and share

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 1>the data nationwide. Only for scent of black homeowners who

0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 1>completed a REFI application with Waltz Fargo were approved. That

0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:05.160
<v Speaker 1>compares with seventy of white homeowners. This is according to

0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:10.800
<v Speaker 1>a Bloomberg News analysis of federal mortgage data. Why and how, Yeah, Look,

0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 1>the question why is something we're still trying to get at.

0:13:13.320 --> 0:13:17.559
<v Speaker 1>Wells Fargo says that it is simply stricter than other lenders,

0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.480
<v Speaker 1>that it treats all lenders the same, but the data

0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:25.240
<v Speaker 1>clearly shows a big disparity there. I think, you know,

0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:28.040
<v Speaker 1>there's the Wells Fargo story. There's also a bigger story here,

0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:31.079
<v Speaker 1>which is that we've coming to the end of of

0:13:31.160 --> 0:13:34.040
<v Speaker 1>a huge wealth event really in America, something like five

0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.080
<v Speaker 1>trillion dollars in mortgages have been refinanced in the last

0:13:37.160 --> 0:13:40.679
<v Speaker 1>two years. When the Fed next week raises interest rates,

0:13:40.760 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>it will be kind of calling time on that refinancing boom.

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:46.840
<v Speaker 1>And a lot of families around America have been able

0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:50.600
<v Speaker 1>to take advantage of rising home prices, low interest rates,

0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:54.240
<v Speaker 1>pull out some equity, maybe finance kids education, and so on.

0:13:54.600 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>And the reality is black homeowners have had a much

0:13:56.880 --> 0:13:59.560
<v Speaker 1>harder time, and they had a much harder time than

0:13:59.600 --> 0:14:01.240
<v Speaker 1>in the rest to the industry when they tried to

0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 1>refinance with Wells Fargo. In want to bring in Bloomberg

0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:06.920
<v Speaker 1>Business Week out of Jill Webber with us here in

0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.200
<v Speaker 1>our interactive Broker studio, I feel like I see Wells

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:12.000
<v Speaker 1>Fargo Joel that all all of a sudden like jump back,

0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:14.640
<v Speaker 1>because it does feel like it's been many years of

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:18.079
<v Speaker 1>things where whether it's the culture or something, the company

0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:21.440
<v Speaker 1>is just not getting it right. Yeah, the banks had

0:14:21.840 --> 0:14:24.800
<v Speaker 1>plenty of issues through the years. UM and you know

0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:28.840
<v Speaker 1>the one that um that Sean writes about UM in

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.400
<v Speaker 1>this story. You know, the thing that really just struck

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 1>me was was the data. Because when you when you

0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:37.360
<v Speaker 1>see the data, it just becomes really Stark. Um and

0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:39.720
<v Speaker 1>you know that the the part of it that I

0:14:39.800 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 1>think is um what makes it an interesting Business Week

0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:45.920
<v Speaker 1>story has been this on going coverage we have about

0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:49.080
<v Speaker 1>how much wealth is locked up in real estate and

0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:53.600
<v Speaker 1>when when you have access to that, you can really

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:58.840
<v Speaker 1>have intergenerational transfers of wealth and and and rise with that.

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.440
<v Speaker 1>And if you're locked out of it, you're just always

0:15:01.480 --> 0:15:05.080
<v Speaker 1>in on the sidelines. Um and And Sean I was wondering, um,

0:15:05.240 --> 0:15:08.480
<v Speaker 1>you know what, you know, being so intimate with his data,

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:12.200
<v Speaker 1>um and and sort of the the the element of

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:17.040
<v Speaker 1>of wealth that a company's home ownership and and what's

0:15:17.080 --> 0:15:20.640
<v Speaker 1>the cost of of a fact of the reporting about

0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 1>Wills Pargo And yeah, and look, I mean yeah, I

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.280
<v Speaker 1>think a lot of time when we talk about wealth

0:15:25.320 --> 0:15:27.640
<v Speaker 1>in America and the racial wealth gap, we talk about

0:15:27.800 --> 0:15:31.600
<v Speaker 1>the gap in home ownership between white and black families.

0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 1>Black families have a much lower home ownership rate than

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.200
<v Speaker 1>white families. What was really striking to me here is

0:15:37.320 --> 0:15:40.560
<v Speaker 1>that we are talking about black families that have overcome

0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:43.960
<v Speaker 1>that gap. We're talking about black middle class homeowners in

0:15:44.240 --> 0:15:46.760
<v Speaker 1>the suburbs. The characters we were talking to were in

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the suburbs of Atlanta. These are not UH, poor inner

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:55.120
<v Speaker 1>city black families. These are relatively affluent black middle class

0:15:55.160 --> 0:16:00.440
<v Speaker 1>families who still have trouble literally leveraging the wealth that

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:04.160
<v Speaker 1>they have and taking advantage of this historic event UH

0:16:04.280 --> 0:16:06.040
<v Speaker 1>in terms of the low interest rates we've seen in

0:16:06.080 --> 0:16:08.560
<v Speaker 1>the in the last couple of years. What's also striking

0:16:08.600 --> 0:16:10.280
<v Speaker 1>to me, and what I couldn't get out of my

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:12.480
<v Speaker 1>head when I was looking at this data, is that

0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 1>a lot of what we were looking at in terms

0:16:14.960 --> 0:16:18.840
<v Speaker 1>of the practices by banks UH and Wells Fargo, took

0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:22.200
<v Speaker 1>place in twenty and at a time when we were

0:16:22.240 --> 0:16:27.280
<v Speaker 1>having the supposed racial reckoning over the gaps in the

0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:30.760
<v Speaker 1>American economy. UH. And here it is. It's it's right there,

0:16:30.800 --> 0:16:33.640
<v Speaker 1>it's stark, it's um. It's just hard to get your

0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>head past that. And you've you look at this and

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 1>you think back over the last couple of years, and

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.400
<v Speaker 1>and it's hard to to come to any other conclusion

0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:45.360
<v Speaker 1>other than you know, racial wealth and equality in America

0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:48.680
<v Speaker 1>has widened in the last couple of years. And housing

0:16:48.800 --> 0:16:50.920
<v Speaker 1>is a big part of that story. And refinancing is

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:53.360
<v Speaker 1>a big part of the housing story. Sean, Who's Who's

0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:55.760
<v Speaker 1>Christie Furchio and what is she doing at Wells Fargo

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.560
<v Speaker 1>and why is why is she unique in her position? Yeah,

0:16:58.600 --> 0:17:01.560
<v Speaker 1>so she's really interesting. She is brought in in the

0:17:01.640 --> 0:17:04.840
<v Speaker 1>middle of u in the summer of as the head

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 1>of the mortgage business there, and she's the first black woman,

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.480
<v Speaker 1>UH to head up that that that mortgage business. She's

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.000
<v Speaker 1>also the head of the Mortgage Bankers Association in America

0:17:14.400 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 1>right now, UM, and she is sitting on some panels

0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.760
<v Speaker 1>that are looking at at credit in America and how

0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:24.560
<v Speaker 1>credit scores are are are divvied out. And she's interesting.

0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:27.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, she's someone who is quite frank about the

0:17:27.320 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 1>problems that that Wells Fargo has had in the past

0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:33.240
<v Speaker 1>and that the broader industry has in terms of servicing

0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.800
<v Speaker 1>UM black homeowners. And she makes a point that part

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:40.240
<v Speaker 1>of this is cultural and part of this is a legacy.

0:17:40.359 --> 0:17:42.680
<v Speaker 1>And she when we talked to her, sided her own

0:17:42.720 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>mother who had a thirty year mortgage and never refinanced

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>at once. And this makes Christie's own head spend because

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.240
<v Speaker 1>she's a banker and she's all about helping people refinance. Hey,

0:17:54.440 --> 0:17:57.040
<v Speaker 1>UM sean to be fair Wells versus other big banks.

0:17:57.200 --> 0:18:01.879
<v Speaker 1>What did we find out. Yeah, so Wells has by

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 1>far the lowest approval rate or had by far the

0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:10.480
<v Speaker 1>lowest approval rate in h among big banks. You look

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:14.840
<v Speaker 1>at banks like Bank of America. Uh, they were in

0:18:14.920 --> 0:18:17.879
<v Speaker 1>the sixties in terms of an approval rate. JP Morgan

0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.360
<v Speaker 1>had a higher approval rate than that, and Rocket Mortgage,

0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:24.159
<v Speaker 1>which was the bigger refinance the biggest refinanced player in

0:18:24.320 --> 0:18:29.520
<v Speaker 1>in in twenty twenty, had a rate up around eight plus. Uh.

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:32.720
<v Speaker 1>So I think you know the gap in terms of

0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:37.560
<v Speaker 1>Wells Fargo uh is really it was the only major

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:42.720
<v Speaker 1>bank that approved less mortgages than it rejected, and that's

0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:45.239
<v Speaker 1>for people who completed applications. All Right, there's a lot

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>in this story and I highly recommend that folks check

0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:49.879
<v Speaker 1>it out online on the Bloomberger. Also pick up the

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>news stand because um again another revealing story about the

0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.359
<v Speaker 1>inequities when it comes to home ownership, and as Joel mentioned,

0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:58.600
<v Speaker 1>that has a lot to do with wealth creation when

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:01.120
<v Speaker 1>it comes to generational wealth. Our thanks to Sean Donna

0:19:01.160 --> 0:19:03.840
<v Speaker 1>and senior economics writer at Bloomberg News and to Joel Webber,

0:19:03.960 --> 0:19:07.920
<v Speaker 1>editor a Business Week. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week

0:19:08.160 --> 0:19:12.040
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stenovic on

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:14.640
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio, we do want to get to our weekly

0:19:14.680 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 1>crypto segment because this week present Biden signing an executive

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.880
<v Speaker 1>order directing government agencies to focus more on the fast

0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:23.840
<v Speaker 1>growing crypto market, from researching a US digital dollar to

0:19:24.000 --> 0:19:27.240
<v Speaker 1>combat and illicit finance, the White House saying on Wednesday

0:19:27.320 --> 0:19:30.879
<v Speaker 1>calling on all agencies across the government to coordinates what's

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.840
<v Speaker 1>thus far been a kind of scattershot approach to the

0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.440
<v Speaker 1>asset class. However, I gotta say, Tim, it falls short

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:39.600
<v Speaker 1>of providing clear direction when it comes to regulation. Kindness.

0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Speaking of direction, we saw bitcoin surge on Wednesday after

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:45.160
<v Speaker 1>this news came out, which was actually before the executive

0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:47.960
<v Speaker 1>order came out. That's an entirely different story, though, Carol. Thursday,

0:19:48.040 --> 0:19:50.520
<v Speaker 1>it's selled off a little bit, and today we're actually

0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:52.240
<v Speaker 1>seeing it lower by just a little bit. To Nel

0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:55.800
<v Speaker 1>Dixon is CEO and executive director of Stellar Development Foundation.

0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.600
<v Speaker 1>Uh Dnnell joins us once again from Oakland, California, to now,

0:19:59.640 --> 0:20:03.360
<v Speaker 1>how are you? I'm wonderful, how are you both doing well?

0:20:03.680 --> 0:20:06.480
<v Speaker 1>I should note that Stellar Development Foundation, it's a nonprofit,

0:20:06.640 --> 0:20:10.159
<v Speaker 1>uses blockchain tech to help unlock the world's potential by

0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:13.640
<v Speaker 1>making money more fluid and opening up markets, uh and more.

0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:16.200
<v Speaker 1>Let's start with this executive order. What does the White

0:20:16.240 --> 0:20:19.600
<v Speaker 1>House Executive Order mean for the crypto industry? You know,

0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:22.639
<v Speaker 1>it's just such an opportunity for the crypto industry. I

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:24.720
<v Speaker 1>think that what it shows is that there's been so

0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 1>much progress that we've made domestically in the US with

0:20:28.080 --> 0:20:31.119
<v Speaker 1>the administration as well as with policymakers and regulators to

0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:33.879
<v Speaker 1>make them pay attention to this particular market, in this

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.480
<v Speaker 1>industry as a whole. And what I'm hopeful that we

0:20:36.520 --> 0:20:38.400
<v Speaker 1>can get out of this because it would be amazing

0:20:38.600 --> 0:20:40.760
<v Speaker 1>for us to have a lot more clarity around the

0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.119
<v Speaker 1>roles of engagement for each of these agencies, so that

0:20:43.240 --> 0:20:47.119
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot more specificity around what their lanes of

0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:49.000
<v Speaker 1>operation are. And I think that that's going to just

0:20:49.359 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 1>eliminate some of the concern that we see in the

0:20:51.560 --> 0:20:54.800
<v Speaker 1>ecosystem broadly for blockchain and cryptocurrency about how to operate.

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:56.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, sometimes you have to do something to nudge

0:20:57.280 --> 0:21:00.119
<v Speaker 1>and get things going. Because I'm wondering about exact get

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:01.760
<v Speaker 1>of order which can be overturned. Right, we know how

0:21:01.840 --> 0:21:05.520
<v Speaker 1>this works versus some kind of congressional or regulatory action.

0:21:05.720 --> 0:21:09.760
<v Speaker 1>So is it a good, good, kind of you know,

0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:14.040
<v Speaker 1>administrative step, you know, coming from the U. S. Government

0:21:14.080 --> 0:21:16.000
<v Speaker 1>to kind of get the ball rolling in a in

0:21:16.040 --> 0:21:19.320
<v Speaker 1>a more serious way. Well, the things that I loved

0:21:19.359 --> 0:21:21.000
<v Speaker 1>about the order, one of them was the fact that

0:21:21.080 --> 0:21:24.000
<v Speaker 1>it demonstrated and it said very specifically that the United

0:21:24.040 --> 0:21:27.800
<v Speaker 1>States wants to continue to have leadership on global financial

0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.760
<v Speaker 1>services and specifically on digital assets. That's huge. That's a

0:21:31.880 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 1>really important statement to make because that's one of the

0:21:33.920 --> 0:21:36.520
<v Speaker 1>things that we've been asking over and over to maintain

0:21:36.680 --> 0:21:39.400
<v Speaker 1>our leadership here. And so I think that that particular

0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:41.159
<v Speaker 1>statement carries a lot of weight, and it's going to

0:21:41.200 --> 0:21:43.920
<v Speaker 1>get these agencies to focus on making sure that they're

0:21:44.040 --> 0:21:46.800
<v Speaker 1>looking at the activity and understanding what part of the

0:21:46.840 --> 0:21:49.560
<v Speaker 1>activity they need to consider that they need to regulate around.

0:21:49.640 --> 0:21:51.800
<v Speaker 1>So I do think it's a really nice first step.

0:21:52.160 --> 0:21:54.040
<v Speaker 1>I think we're still going to see activity at the

0:21:54.119 --> 0:21:57.320
<v Speaker 1>policymaker level with respect to particularly I think stable coins

0:21:57.359 --> 0:21:59.520
<v Speaker 1>this year. I think that's the low hanging fruit and

0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:01.800
<v Speaker 1>a really important part of this puzzle that we need

0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:04.640
<v Speaker 1>to see sort of act all together. But I think

0:22:04.800 --> 0:22:08.560
<v Speaker 1>that they having an executive order and telling these agencies, hey,

0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:10.640
<v Speaker 1>this is an important space for us. We can't lose

0:22:10.720 --> 0:22:12.880
<v Speaker 1>sight of it and we can't fall behind. Is really

0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:15.920
<v Speaker 1>what I see is an important takeaway to Now, um,

0:22:16.400 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 1>what about when it comes to if some of these

0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:21.800
<v Speaker 1>companies should start to get concerned at all that the

0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:23.879
<v Speaker 1>scrutiny is going to be on them. It's It's interesting

0:22:23.960 --> 0:22:26.159
<v Speaker 1>because on one hand, I think a lot of them

0:22:26.200 --> 0:22:28.520
<v Speaker 1>are are are going to welcome some sort of clear

0:22:28.560 --> 0:22:31.440
<v Speaker 1>guidance at least from regulators. But at the same time,

0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:36.040
<v Speaker 1>are any of the business models at risk? So I

0:22:36.080 --> 0:22:38.440
<v Speaker 1>don't know whether to think about it from that standpoint.

0:22:38.480 --> 0:22:39.879
<v Speaker 1>Here's what I'd like to think about it from and

0:22:39.920 --> 0:22:41.480
<v Speaker 1>this is what I would tell any of these companies

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:43.040
<v Speaker 1>out there, and many of them we work with in

0:22:43.080 --> 0:22:45.520
<v Speaker 1>the industry. Holistically, one of the things that we did

0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:47.359
<v Speaker 1>wrong on the content side of the web years and

0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:49.560
<v Speaker 1>years ago, and privacy sort of came out as being

0:22:49.640 --> 0:22:51.520
<v Speaker 1>one of those things to think about, is we told

0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 1>regulators and policymakers, we don't need your attention, we don't

0:22:54.600 --> 0:22:56.280
<v Speaker 1>need your help. We've got this. We know how to

0:22:56.359 --> 0:22:58.440
<v Speaker 1>do this as an industry. And the truth is that

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:00.359
<v Speaker 1>you can see today. We didn't and we didn't know

0:23:00.400 --> 0:23:02.359
<v Speaker 1>how to do that necessarily as well as maybe we

0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:04.440
<v Speaker 1>could have, and so we've learned our lesson there, and

0:23:04.560 --> 0:23:07.000
<v Speaker 1>so I think now is the opportunity for us to

0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:10.840
<v Speaker 1>engage with these regulators and these policymakers and these administrative

0:23:10.880 --> 0:23:13.240
<v Speaker 1>agencies to help them to understand the value and the

0:23:13.320 --> 0:23:16.960
<v Speaker 1>benefit of what this this technology and all these tools

0:23:17.000 --> 0:23:20.120
<v Speaker 1>that are being built are providing to the individual consumers

0:23:20.160 --> 0:23:23.560
<v Speaker 1>into businesses alike, domestically and globally. So I see this

0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:26.600
<v Speaker 1>as an opportunity for engagement. And sure there might be

0:23:26.640 --> 0:23:29.879
<v Speaker 1>scrutiny on certain things, but it's our opportunity to explain

0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:32.800
<v Speaker 1>what what the what the value is so that you

0:23:32.840 --> 0:23:35.359
<v Speaker 1>can balance the value with the challenge of understanding these

0:23:35.400 --> 0:23:38.800
<v Speaker 1>business models. So I ultimately see this as this is

0:23:38.920 --> 0:23:42.720
<v Speaker 1>our time to sort of demonstrate what we can do

0:23:43.240 --> 0:23:45.800
<v Speaker 1>for the global financial system, and I think that that's

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:48.360
<v Speaker 1>going to be a huge step in favor of blockchain

0:23:48.400 --> 0:23:51.920
<v Speaker 1>and cryptocurrency generally. Do now, we you know, constantly talk

0:23:52.040 --> 0:23:56.879
<v Speaker 1>about financial innovation and platforms that hopefully make things more

0:23:57.000 --> 0:23:58.920
<v Speaker 1>equal in terms of access. We just did a store

0:23:58.960 --> 0:24:04.040
<v Speaker 1>about Wells Fargo and mortgages for um, Black Americans and

0:24:04.160 --> 0:24:06.199
<v Speaker 1>those that you know in terms of where they are

0:24:06.280 --> 0:24:10.399
<v Speaker 1>in the economic strata, have you know, good incomes success

0:24:10.600 --> 0:24:13.280
<v Speaker 1>some would say financially, and yet are being turned down

0:24:13.320 --> 0:24:16.200
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to, you know, refinancing your mortgage. So

0:24:16.280 --> 0:24:20.159
<v Speaker 1>I do wonder how realistically will something like crypto be

0:24:20.720 --> 0:24:23.680
<v Speaker 1>something that moves us in a big way towards more

0:24:23.720 --> 0:24:27.920
<v Speaker 1>equality financially and just kind about forty twos so left. Yeah,

0:24:27.960 --> 0:24:30.119
<v Speaker 1>I really do think that this is the opportunity for

0:24:30.200 --> 0:24:32.560
<v Speaker 1>crypto and blockchain to shine. I think we can shine

0:24:32.600 --> 0:24:35.920
<v Speaker 1>domestically and internationally. The notion of not having to have

0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:38.680
<v Speaker 1>those minimum balance requirements, the notion of not having to

0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:40.720
<v Speaker 1>have some of the fees that are attached to it,

0:24:40.800 --> 0:24:43.680
<v Speaker 1>and the requirement that there's just a competitive advantage for

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:46.000
<v Speaker 1>figuring out how to do this better, cheaper and faster

0:24:46.480 --> 0:24:49.240
<v Speaker 1>for all consumers. I always say the financial sector is

0:24:49.320 --> 0:24:51.320
<v Speaker 1>right now focused on the money, I mean on the few,

0:24:51.560 --> 0:24:53.200
<v Speaker 1>and we need it to be focused on the money.

0:24:53.400 --> 0:24:55.240
<v Speaker 1>And I think that's what blockchain and crypto can do.

0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:58.119
<v Speaker 1>So I see not just promise but real active use

0:24:58.200 --> 0:25:00.320
<v Speaker 1>cases that are doing that today. All right, well, cool,

0:25:00.480 --> 0:25:02.480
<v Speaker 1>So we will obviously reach out to you as things

0:25:02.560 --> 0:25:06.040
<v Speaker 1>progress and and uh fingers crossed that this uh does

0:25:06.160 --> 0:25:08.800
<v Speaker 1>play out the way that you just said. Danille Dixon,

0:25:08.960 --> 0:25:12.399
<v Speaker 1>she is CEO and executive director of Stellar Development Foundation,

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.520
<v Speaker 1>interesting organization and nonprofit. They use blockchain to unlock economic

0:25:16.600 --> 0:25:19.520
<v Speaker 1>potential by making money more fluid, markets more open, and

0:25:19.560 --> 0:25:22.040
<v Speaker 1>people more empowered. That's their website. I'm reading from it,

0:25:22.119 --> 0:25:24.920
<v Speaker 1>but that's their mission as well too. Yeah, big coin

0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:28.359
<v Speaker 1>by the way down one today. Who's around right? Or

0:25:28.400 --> 0:25:31.200
<v Speaker 1>so I hear? It's certainly does all right, you're listening

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:36.400
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. It's Friday, and Mrs Bloomberg, I'm

0:25:36.560 --> 0:25:40.320
<v Speaker 1>road Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no, no,

0:25:40.680 --> 0:25:49.440
<v Speaker 1>who's going home leaves? I want to drive. It's a

0:25:49.480 --> 0:25:55.800
<v Speaker 1>good question. Drive. This is good ride to the closed

0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:02.600
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg at Alright, TikTok, everybody, Just about ten minutes

0:26:02.680 --> 0:26:05.560
<v Speaker 1>left in today's trading session. We are getting ready to

0:26:05.840 --> 0:26:08.440
<v Speaker 1>wrap up the trading day and the trading week. And

0:26:08.520 --> 0:26:10.680
<v Speaker 1>we talked about some selling into the closes, Charlie breaking

0:26:10.720 --> 0:26:13.119
<v Speaker 1>down those numbers, and we are at our loads of

0:26:13.240 --> 0:26:15.960
<v Speaker 1>the session. Let's talk about the markets. We've got the

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:18.199
<v Speaker 1>drive to the class. Yeah. John Trainer is executive vice

0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:21.479
<v Speaker 1>president and chief investment officer at People's United Advisors ten

0:26:21.480 --> 0:26:24.920
<v Speaker 1>billion dollars in assets under management. John, how are you.

0:26:25.040 --> 0:26:27.680
<v Speaker 1>It's good to have you with us this afternoon. Yeah,

0:26:27.760 --> 0:26:29.879
<v Speaker 1>thanks for having me back. Yeah, it's good. It's good

0:26:29.920 --> 0:26:31.520
<v Speaker 1>to have you back with us. UM. Just going through

0:26:31.520 --> 0:26:33.439
<v Speaker 1>some numbers here on the Bloomberg terminal. The Dow right

0:26:33.440 --> 0:26:35.760
<v Speaker 1>now headed for its fifth weekly decline in a row,

0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:39.919
<v Speaker 1>SP five hundred, down for four of the last five weeks. Uh.

0:26:40.480 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 1>What are you hearing from customers right now? Are they

0:26:43.640 --> 0:26:47.360
<v Speaker 1>concerned or um? Are they kind of just sitting tight?

0:26:48.720 --> 0:26:52.120
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's interesting. For the longest time, we were

0:26:52.400 --> 0:26:57.320
<v Speaker 1>surprised that people were not more concerned about what was

0:26:57.400 --> 0:27:00.280
<v Speaker 1>going on over in Ukraine. It's you know, it's filtering, true,

0:27:00.400 --> 0:27:02.880
<v Speaker 1>it's it's the beginning and the end of every client

0:27:03.000 --> 0:27:05.600
<v Speaker 1>conversation we have. But you know, one of the things

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:08.360
<v Speaker 1>that we highlight to them. We were on our investment

0:27:08.440 --> 0:27:11.320
<v Speaker 1>call this morning. If you look at your Bloomberg and

0:27:11.440 --> 0:27:14.480
<v Speaker 1>take a look at performance from the twenty three to

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:17.800
<v Speaker 1>last night, the SMP is up. The data was up

0:27:18.200 --> 0:27:20.639
<v Speaker 1>that most of the damage done to the market was

0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:23.320
<v Speaker 1>because of you know, the FED and inflation and changing

0:27:23.359 --> 0:27:28.280
<v Speaker 1>introtrate policies that while volatilities picked up, the market has

0:27:28.320 --> 0:27:31.679
<v Speaker 1>actually handled this pretty well. So we're reinforcing that with clients.

0:27:32.520 --> 0:27:35.960
<v Speaker 1>The longer it goes on, though, how does that start

0:27:36.000 --> 0:27:37.359
<v Speaker 1>to come on done? I mean, John, one of the

0:27:37.440 --> 0:27:40.280
<v Speaker 1>conversations we've certainly had with individuals. You heard it from

0:27:40.840 --> 0:27:43.679
<v Speaker 1>the g E CEO who talked with our David Weston

0:27:43.760 --> 0:27:46.639
<v Speaker 1>this week. You heard it from Christine Leguard of the

0:27:46.720 --> 0:27:51.040
<v Speaker 1>European Central Bank. UM. You know what's interesting is that

0:27:51.600 --> 0:27:54.520
<v Speaker 1>the longer this goes on, do we need to start

0:27:54.600 --> 0:27:57.560
<v Speaker 1>then having a rethink when it comes to the second

0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:01.840
<v Speaker 1>half of this year, Well, we absolutely do. I mean,

0:28:02.080 --> 0:28:06.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's a probably a foregone conclusion that Europe

0:28:06.200 --> 0:28:09.439
<v Speaker 1>is going to roll right over into another recession. UM.

0:28:09.800 --> 0:28:12.360
<v Speaker 1>We were trying to figure out how much we haircut

0:28:12.440 --> 0:28:15.480
<v Speaker 1>our GDP forecast for the US, and that's going to

0:28:15.600 --> 0:28:18.200
<v Speaker 1>roll right into earnings. So you know, we were looking

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:20.880
<v Speaker 1>for high single digit earnings at the beginning of the year.

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>You know we're lower than that now. So absolutely it's

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:28.160
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna ripple through the US. UM and and primarily

0:28:28.240 --> 0:28:31.520
<v Speaker 1>hate earnings absolutely, How does it ripple through the US

0:28:31.760 --> 0:28:34.920
<v Speaker 1>What does that look like? Is it because of energy costs? Well,

0:28:35.080 --> 0:28:38.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, again think about the consumer. Um you know,

0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:41.080
<v Speaker 1>I've taken a look at some numbers, and you know,

0:28:41.240 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 1>for every pay that the gas price increases, you know,

0:28:45.720 --> 0:28:48.560
<v Speaker 1>economists will tell you that that increases like a tax

0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:53.320
<v Speaker 1>increase of a billion dollars. So you know, years, over

0:28:53.360 --> 0:28:55.520
<v Speaker 1>and over the course of the year. So we've had

0:28:55.720 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 1>we've already had, you know, well over a one billion

0:28:59.000 --> 0:29:02.160
<v Speaker 1>dollar tax incre that's going to slow the economy. And

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:04.640
<v Speaker 1>then when you take a look at the consumer. You know,

0:29:04.760 --> 0:29:07.120
<v Speaker 1>we've been breathing about how the consumer balance sheets are

0:29:07.160 --> 0:29:10.479
<v Speaker 1>in great shape. But boy, when you see oil prices

0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:12.800
<v Speaker 1>move up, gasoline prices move up, that's going to have

0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:15.840
<v Speaker 1>an increase of It's going to increase pain and the

0:29:15.920 --> 0:29:19.280
<v Speaker 1>consumer balance sheet is going to impact psychology. So you know,

0:29:19.360 --> 0:29:23.360
<v Speaker 1>the consumer has been driving this recovery through goods purchases,

0:29:23.480 --> 0:29:27.240
<v Speaker 1>and we were hoping for increased services expenditures. We think

0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:29.680
<v Speaker 1>it will be the consumer that is going to slow

0:29:29.760 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 1>things down. So we we haven't figured out how much

0:29:32.920 --> 0:29:36.440
<v Speaker 1>we haircut US GDP, but you know, we we we're

0:29:36.480 --> 0:29:39.240
<v Speaker 1>gonna be hopefully we'll we'll still be about three percent

0:29:39.360 --> 0:29:43.840
<v Speaker 1>of this year um recession. You know, it's one thing,

0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:45.720
<v Speaker 1>even if it's a mild one, if it's touch and go.

0:29:46.800 --> 0:29:50.520
<v Speaker 1>Uh when we when people see that, it makes everybody

0:29:50.520 --> 0:29:54.240
<v Speaker 1>a little bit nervous. Yep, yep. And And you know,

0:29:54.320 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>I've been doing this now for a little over forty years,

0:29:56.760 --> 0:30:00.600
<v Speaker 1>and my best indicator for a recession has been the

0:30:00.680 --> 0:30:03.960
<v Speaker 1>yield curve. That tend to yield curve. And we're in

0:30:04.400 --> 0:30:08.640
<v Speaker 1>we're in red territory right now. Absolutely, you know, it's

0:30:09.400 --> 0:30:12.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, that's been my best indicator. Twelve to eight

0:30:12.360 --> 0:30:15.240
<v Speaker 1>months later, you've got a recession. So as the Fed

0:30:15.440 --> 0:30:18.720
<v Speaker 1>starts raising rates, you know they'll raise them on the

0:30:18.800 --> 0:30:21.520
<v Speaker 1>short end. I can't imagine that the tenure is going

0:30:21.600 --> 0:30:24.240
<v Speaker 1>to be moving up that dramatically. So I can tell

0:30:24.280 --> 0:30:27.400
<v Speaker 1>you the headlines, uh, you know, fairly soon late spring

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:30.000
<v Speaker 1>are probably going to be see what happens if the

0:30:30.080 --> 0:30:33.560
<v Speaker 1>yield curve and verts here. I know Chairman Powell has

0:30:33.600 --> 0:30:36.160
<v Speaker 1>talked about it, and he you know, he's not putting

0:30:36.200 --> 0:30:38.440
<v Speaker 1>a lot of faith in it. But I think market

0:30:38.520 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 1>participants will put a lot of faith in that as

0:30:41.200 --> 0:30:44.080
<v Speaker 1>a pretty good indicator, so you know, the fear of

0:30:44.160 --> 0:30:48.120
<v Speaker 1>a recession will be growing as we moved through the year. Absolutely. Yeah,

0:30:48.120 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting since you kicked off the conversation and talked

0:30:50.280 --> 0:30:53.560
<v Speaker 1>about what the markets have done since um Russia launched

0:30:53.640 --> 0:30:57.760
<v Speaker 1>that uh invasion of Ukraine. That was on February. So

0:30:57.760 --> 0:30:59.880
<v Speaker 1>I looked at the markets as of the two clothes,

0:31:00.040 --> 0:31:02.000
<v Speaker 1>and the Dado was just off about half a percent,

0:31:02.120 --> 0:31:05.520
<v Speaker 1>The S and P is off about point four NASDAC

0:31:05.640 --> 0:31:07.400
<v Speaker 1>is down about one point four percent, and the Russell

0:31:07.480 --> 0:31:09.280
<v Speaker 1>is actually up on this one point percent. The Russell

0:31:09.320 --> 0:31:12.160
<v Speaker 1>has been pretty beaten up. But your point is, and

0:31:12.400 --> 0:31:13.840
<v Speaker 1>we talked about this, we could get to the end

0:31:13.840 --> 0:31:15.600
<v Speaker 1>of the year and the markets might be little changed,

0:31:15.640 --> 0:31:18.400
<v Speaker 1>but man, the trip to get there is a rough one,

0:31:18.480 --> 0:31:22.240
<v Speaker 1>right because of the volatility and the huge wings. Absolutely,

0:31:22.280 --> 0:31:24.440
<v Speaker 1>and look at what's happened to the European markets. He

0:31:25.680 --> 0:31:28.800
<v Speaker 1>has gotten crushed, the EFA, the emerging markets, and I

0:31:28.840 --> 0:31:31.240
<v Speaker 1>don't care whether you're in growth or value in Europe,

0:31:31.280 --> 0:31:34.000
<v Speaker 1>the European markets are really sold off. You know, one

0:31:34.040 --> 0:31:35.400
<v Speaker 1>of the things we want to look at as it

0:31:35.520 --> 0:31:37.720
<v Speaker 1>as an investor is you know, when you go through

0:31:37.840 --> 0:31:40.960
<v Speaker 1>something like this, what goes down the least because that

0:31:41.120 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>tends to lead when you come out of this. So

0:31:43.960 --> 0:31:47.120
<v Speaker 1>we are, you know, slightly overweight the US. We were

0:31:47.200 --> 0:31:50.719
<v Speaker 1>debating do we go to Neutroller? Do we overweight Europe?

0:31:50.800 --> 0:31:53.400
<v Speaker 1>Just a few months ago. We're sticking with the U.

0:31:53.600 --> 0:31:55.760
<v Speaker 1>S overweight. We think the US is the place to

0:31:55.840 --> 0:31:59.200
<v Speaker 1>be just based upon what's happened since the invasion. Yeah,

0:31:59.320 --> 0:32:02.600
<v Speaker 1>msci Emorgin Markets index is downe about ten percent since

0:32:03.400 --> 0:32:05.720
<v Speaker 1>the war started. So if you do the comparison, and

0:32:05.800 --> 0:32:07.520
<v Speaker 1>this is right right, you know, John, when we talk

0:32:07.560 --> 0:32:10.680
<v Speaker 1>about things, it's got to be everything relative to one another,

0:32:11.200 --> 0:32:14.160
<v Speaker 1>um and investors will be looking at where where do

0:32:14.240 --> 0:32:16.760
<v Speaker 1>I feel the most confident about placing and making those

0:32:16.800 --> 0:32:19.479
<v Speaker 1>bets to him? John? How long do you John? How

0:32:19.520 --> 0:32:21.440
<v Speaker 1>long do you see this this playing out here? I mean,

0:32:21.520 --> 0:32:23.320
<v Speaker 1>and you know, just in the last thirty seconds we

0:32:23.400 --> 0:32:26.720
<v Speaker 1>have with you. Uh, is there any chance of recession

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 1>in the US is on the horizon if we don't

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:30.800
<v Speaker 1>see oil prices come down? Well, there are two things

0:32:30.840 --> 0:32:33.040
<v Speaker 1>you need to look at. Number One, let's pray that

0:32:33.160 --> 0:32:36.920
<v Speaker 1>the hostilities end fairly soon. I mean, I'm you know,

0:32:36.960 --> 0:32:39.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm no foreign policy expert. But I think that will

0:32:39.640 --> 0:32:42.600
<v Speaker 1>that will hopefully take place. But the resilience of the

0:32:42.720 --> 0:32:46.239
<v Speaker 1>Ukrainian people certainly look like they're not going to roll

0:32:46.360 --> 0:32:49.080
<v Speaker 1>over that, you know. I don't know. I love to

0:32:49.160 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 1>read the foreign policy experts, and they're talking about this

0:32:51.960 --> 0:32:56.560
<v Speaker 1>becoming Vladimir Putin's Afghanistan. So there'll be two stages. Hopefully

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:59.200
<v Speaker 1>we'll we'll see an end of the hostilities, right, but

0:32:59.680 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>this will be a headline for quite a while to come,

0:33:02.760 --> 0:33:04.480
<v Speaker 1>quite a while. All Right, We've got to run here, John,

0:33:04.560 --> 0:33:07.000
<v Speaker 1>have a good and safe weekend. We appreciate it. John Trainor,

0:33:07.280 --> 0:33:09.959
<v Speaker 1>his executive vice president and chief investment officer at People's

0:33:10.040 --> 0:33:13.560
<v Speaker 1>United Advisors, but ten billion in assets under management on

0:33:13.680 --> 0:33:17.880
<v Speaker 1>the phone from Connecticut. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:21.440
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:33:21.640 --> 0:33:23.280
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0:33:23.320 --> 0:33:25.800
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0:33:25.920 --> 0:33:27.960
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