1 00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jay Lee. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. I 5 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 1: want to bring in Peter Hoop at Deutsche Bank Securities 6 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: Global head of Economic Research. Here's its tape from Morgan Stanley. 7 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: The Fetes reaction function means riskskew asymmetrically to rate cuts 8 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:40,880 Speaker 1: over rate hikes in the next couple of years. Peter 9 00:00:41,000 --> 00:00:45,400 Speaker 1: is that the Deutsche Bank take too absolutely. My My, 10 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: my colleague Mattelzettie put a very nice report over the 11 00:00:47,720 --> 00:00:51,040 Speaker 1: weekend um the we we expect the FED to be 12 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: on hold for the year ahead. We expect a key 13 00:00:55,680 --> 00:00:59,520 Speaker 1: change mid year. J Palisman telling us expect us to 14 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 1: give us give you the result of our year of 15 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:07,039 Speaker 1: policy review here. The major factor in that report will 16 00:01:07,080 --> 00:01:14,640 Speaker 1: be a strengthening of the symmetric inflation target, recognizing that 17 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:17,640 Speaker 1: they've been below two percent for the last decade, that 18 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: we're gonna be above two percent. We're gonna aim to 19 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: overshoot a bit on inflation. We're gonna have a makeup strategy. 20 00:01:22,800 --> 00:01:26,280 Speaker 1: We're gonna have some inflation averaging here. The problem is 21 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: inflation is not going to be cooperating yet. We see 22 00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:32,160 Speaker 1: inflation remaining below two percent over the year ahead. Um, 23 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: many in the FED do as well. Uh, and certainly 24 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: that seems to be the consensus. Phillips curve is still 25 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,759 Speaker 1: very flat. FED has some work to do. We think 26 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:44,399 Speaker 1: with the announcement in June, they will, they will bring 27 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 1: down the dots right now. They're expecting rate increases in 28 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 1: twenty two. Those will come down. They're not going to 29 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,760 Speaker 1: cut rates this year. They we think they'll be patient. 30 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: They'll they'll they'll let the things play out a while, 31 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,080 Speaker 1: get after they get past the election, get past the politics, etcetera. 32 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:06,520 Speaker 1: Early first half of one, we're expecting a fifty basis 33 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 1: point rate cut in order to get inflation finally above 34 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:12,720 Speaker 1: two percent, just to jump in pizza. Why White, until 35 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 1: the month your policy review is complete. Don't you get 36 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: the sense that even as this monity policy review is ongoing, 37 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: that it's already become a part of the decision making 38 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 1: process on the f MC. Well, you know, so, why 39 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 1: did why did we get a set of dots in 40 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: the December meeting that had rate increases in twenty two. 41 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:34,280 Speaker 1: So it's not there yet. Okay, Pal has said very 42 00:02:34,280 --> 00:02:36,959 Speaker 1: clearly we'll give you the results middle of next year. 43 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: We're not there yet. We're still assessing. So, yes, it 44 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 1: may be working its way in and you are hearing 45 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: people you are here increasingly various FED members say I 46 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised as the inflation go above two percent, 47 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,280 Speaker 1: you know, So you're you're hearing it, but it's not 48 00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: there yet in the policy setting. I don't I don't 49 00:02:54,720 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 1: think they want to cut rates this year. Eight years, 50 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: nine years ago, Dr Hooper Olivia Olivier Blanchard's leadership at 51 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: the i m F. This is March of two thousand 52 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:08,119 Speaker 1: and eleven conference. Uh, there's a conference on jump starting inflation. 53 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: I'm looking for the title of it right now. You 54 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 1: were probably at the conference. I wish i'd been there, 55 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 1: A conference on macro and growth policies in the wake 56 00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: of the crisis. We're still talking now what Olivia Blanchard 57 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: was leading on in two thousand eleven. Is there any 58 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 1: evidence institutions can jump start reflation? You know? Uh, the 59 00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: Phillips curve is not totally dead. We did a lot 60 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: of research earlier this year. Come on, you got the embalming. 61 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: Is the cremation or are we going to go with 62 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: a full beak? It's it's dead at the national level 63 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,560 Speaker 1: because the FETE is basically killed it The FETE has 64 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 1: over The FETE has been over emphasizing any time we 65 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: get toward a tight labor market, it doesn't allow us 66 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: to go there. Prior to nineteen eighty, the average unemployment 67 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: rate was was well below NEHRU. The average the labor 68 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,000 Speaker 1: market was tight. Since nineteen eighty ridge unemployment rate, it's 69 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 1: been a close to one. It's been a loose, loose 70 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,120 Speaker 1: labor market situation. I think we need to get the 71 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:10,840 Speaker 1: unemployer rates significantly below the natural rate. And the natural 72 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: rate the NEHRU has been climbing down. It's it's four 73 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 1: percent or less. Now we need to get into something. 74 00:04:16,160 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 1: We need to get into a two handle of unemployment 75 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:20,280 Speaker 1: before we're going to see inflation. Do we have a 76 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,960 Speaker 1: negative unemployment rate, Well, this is a negative negative unemployer. 77 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:28,840 Speaker 1: I think that this academic discussion of is inflation dead 78 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 1: has a very real underpinning of the existential crisis right 79 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: now markets and guess I use the word existential this morning. Uh. 80 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: And this is that is this sort of low inflation rate, 81 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:45,679 Speaker 1: the low growth rate, fundamentally inconsistent with the risk price asset. 82 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,520 Speaker 1: That the sort of risk rally that we have seen 83 00:04:48,680 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: over the past few years. How much further can it 84 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 1: go on the heels of low inflation, low rates if 85 00:04:56,320 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: there is something fundamentally broken with the inflation and the 86 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: wage growth kind of bleed through, well, that is the 87 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:07,160 Speaker 1: one risk in this in this this picture and a 88 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: very interesting uh talk that Eric Rosen grand Bossom PET 89 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 1: president gave in New York yesterday where he said, look, 90 00:05:15,480 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: this this is a risk we need we need to 91 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: do some counter some uh, we need to control things 92 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: a little bit. Let's raise uh the countercyclically capital buffers 93 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:30,040 Speaker 1: of the banking system. Okay, there are some things we 94 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 1: could be doing to reduce some of this risk, this 95 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:37,040 Speaker 1: financial risk. Yes, evaluations are looking a little high. Yes, 96 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: corporate credit growth has been a little lofty. We're nowhere 97 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: near the level of financial risk we had in the 98 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: late nineties, for example, that we're not there. I think 99 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: we can push push further to get the unemployee right 100 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: down further to begin to get inflation up. But we 101 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: have to be a little bit of cost, a little 102 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 1: bit cautious with what's happening on the financial side. No 103 00:05:57,600 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: question paid a funnal question for you, just to tap 104 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 1: in some of the research. I know you in the 105 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 1: team have been working on a lot of people looking 106 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:06,680 Speaker 1: at the data worldwide in Q fourto Q one twenty, 107 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,880 Speaker 1: looking for stabilization in the global economy. I don't know 108 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: if the recovery is you shaped. I have no idea 109 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 1: if it's l shaped. I'm trying to work out whether, 110 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: to your point, is it green shoots or a false dawn? 111 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: Which one is it? That was record cliche. You eight 112 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: cliches in there. It's the front page of them. He's 113 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:33,920 Speaker 1: trying to trying to banks special growth green shoots, So 114 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,719 Speaker 1: false dawn, false dawn. Let's let's think green shoots. Okay, 115 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:40,760 Speaker 1: maybe there's a little bit of false dawn still in Europe, 116 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 1: there's some question marks there. But we think China is 117 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 1: going to be looking a little stronger than people expecting. 118 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 1: There's a there is there is a consumer cycle in China. 119 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: I mean, as we go from four D to five D, 120 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 1: there're gonna be a lot more purchases of cell phones 121 00:06:53,960 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: coming up. They're also in the middle of an auto cycle, 122 00:06:57,160 --> 00:07:01,720 Speaker 1: so we're sinking China's gross above six percent next year, 123 00:07:02,240 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 1: um all at six percent, least US is looking better 124 00:07:05,760 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: to certainly certainly fed. Being in in accommodative territory is 125 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: helpful and with on the whole, on the whole, the 126 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: risk situation improving a bit on balance. Remember v shaped bottom. 127 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:26,640 Speaker 1: You can have apologized to from Matlozetti. I mean we've 128 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:29,720 Speaker 1: we've staggered since August of two thousand and seven, from 129 00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: cliche to cliche to cliche, and we're just I think 130 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:36,760 Speaker 1: you nailed it, frankly with this whole thing of Candy's institutions. 131 00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: Reflect it's a huge Yeah, I'll give you distract and 132 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 1: thank you Pa, Thank you Bank Security Static head of 133 00:07:46,440 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 1: economic research John bringing the col of my And this 134 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 1: is on the Pimco view which I think a lot 135 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 1: of our listeners viscerally feel a more conservative. You going 136 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 1: into Nicola might joining us now. Pimco portfolio manager, suffering 137 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 1: credit analyst, Nicola, what me through what you see global growth, 138 00:08:17,160 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 1: global inflation, US growth, US inflation, the kind of numbers 139 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: you're looking for sure. Um, well, I would say that, 140 00:08:23,920 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: you know, concerns about recession in twenty have definitely been 141 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: temperate because of a few positive developments. I mean, we 142 00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: have a trade deal between the U S and China. 143 00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: It's a limited one, but still you know, not for 144 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: further escalation for now in terms of the trade war. 145 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 1: We have monetary policy in the U S which is 146 00:08:40,880 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: getting some traction, especially in the housing market. Worksit risks 147 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: have been reduced, and you know, there are some tentative 148 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: signs of spottoming out in the manufacturing sector. So what 149 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 1: we expect essentially is a gradual reacceleration and growth um 150 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: the global economy the skirts the recession. I mean, the 151 00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,120 Speaker 1: only thing I would say is that, you know, even 152 00:09:00,160 --> 00:09:04,199 Speaker 1: though recession risks are lower, monetary policy is basically out 153 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:06,000 Speaker 1: of bullets. So if we do end up having a 154 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: recession at some point, the loss given recession could actually 155 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,839 Speaker 1: be higher. Nicola a lot of people because on the 156 00:09:11,880 --> 00:09:15,800 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve and the ECB. Here at Bloomberg Surveillance, we're 157 00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:19,319 Speaker 1: focus on Sweden's rix ricks Bank, which is going to 158 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:24,079 Speaker 1: be potentially raising rates out of negative territory tomorrow and 159 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: they're doing it as a quote philosophical rate cut rate hike, 160 00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: as one person said, because they just don't think that 161 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:35,280 Speaker 1: negative yields are working. How closely are you watching that? Well, 162 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: we think the one is interesting. I mean, we've we've 163 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:40,640 Speaker 1: been writing about this. We think that negative interest rates 164 00:09:41,400 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: have been kind of working so far in terms of 165 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,080 Speaker 1: like bank bank lending rates falling in terms of credit 166 00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,319 Speaker 1: growth act actually accelerating at the margin. But there is 167 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 1: some significant damage that is being inflicted by the negative 168 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: rates on bank balance sheets, pension fund balance sheets, insurance 169 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,319 Speaker 1: companies balance sheets. So we don't think negative rates have 170 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,480 Speaker 1: much further to run, and actually the longer they persist, 171 00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 1: the more damaging they might become. So in this context, 172 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:10,559 Speaker 1: I think the Ricks bank is one of those institutions 173 00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,679 Speaker 1: that is becoming, you know, particularly worried about it. So 174 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:16,719 Speaker 1: I think the rate hike should be seen in that context. Yeah, 175 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:19,559 Speaker 1: And a lot of investors are eerily watching this, and 176 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,240 Speaker 1: certainly banks are excited about this because negative rates has 177 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,839 Speaker 1: certainly hurt their bottom line. How closely is the e 178 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: c B watching though, I mean in order to figure 179 00:10:27,040 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 1: out what their exit strategy could potentially be, So I 180 00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: I think if you look at the ECB rhetoric, I 181 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 1: think it's it's become more conscious of the fact of 182 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 1: the side effects of the negative interest rates. I mean, 183 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,160 Speaker 1: if you think about the tearing, the introduction of tearing, 184 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: it's you know, it's a reflection of that as well. 185 00:10:43,679 --> 00:10:46,200 Speaker 1: I think in terms of actually getting out of negative 186 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:48,480 Speaker 1: rate policy, I think it's gonna be really hard for 187 00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: the ECB for now because if the c B were 188 00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 1: to start to high rate in back to zero, I 189 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 1: think the implications in terms of the currency could be significant, 190 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:00,960 Speaker 1: and in turn that would have impl issues for inflation 191 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:04,199 Speaker 1: and growth. So at the moment, I think there will 192 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 1: be steady at this level. If they have to do 193 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:10,319 Speaker 1: more easing, our sences that they will focus more on 194 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: quantitative easing, liquidity operations and forward guidance rather than bringing 195 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: the rates further into negative territory. Nicola, the ECB has 196 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,240 Speaker 1: lost a lot of experience in the last twelve months, 197 00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: lost the chief economist Peter Pray, lost the e CP 198 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 1: president Manua drag and it's about to lose ben Wa 199 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,679 Speaker 1: Kure of the e CP Executive Board as well. He 200 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: had a fairwell speech in the last twenty four hours, 201 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: and the following quote is something that he delivered and 202 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 1: everyone's jumping on. It was time to dismantle the absurd 203 00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:43,200 Speaker 1: idea of an omnipposent central bank that can mechanically steer inflation. 204 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,480 Speaker 1: Do you think those thoughts will be a part of 205 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:48,679 Speaker 1: the monetary policy the strategic review that the CP and 206 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 1: Christine Legand is undertaking. Yeah, I mean, it's it's gonna 207 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 1: definitely gonna be an interesting review. Um. I think monetary uh, 208 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 1: you know, I think the ECB and several money street 209 00:12:00,320 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: policy makers are realizing that it's actually very hard to 210 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: lift inflation because of secular forces like globalization and technology 211 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,079 Speaker 1: keeping inflation low. Um. But you know, if I were 212 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,560 Speaker 1: to guess, I think the review, you know, what they 213 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 1: might do is actually change the target a little bit 214 00:12:19,120 --> 00:12:21,440 Speaker 1: from below but close to percent, to something a bit 215 00:12:21,480 --> 00:12:24,679 Speaker 1: more symmetric, maybe just call it two. I think if 216 00:12:24,720 --> 00:12:27,280 Speaker 1: they were to actually give up on the inflation amandin 217 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,240 Speaker 1: or on the supercent that that would, you know, would 218 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: be quite damaging potentially, especially given how high that levels are. 219 00:12:34,880 --> 00:12:38,480 Speaker 1: So if you give up on inflation, you're you're probably 220 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,959 Speaker 1: going to create quite a bit of trouble. Bank of 221 00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,800 Speaker 1: American Marylynch did a recent credit survey of investors in 222 00:12:44,960 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: Europe and one theme was the sort of Barbel approach 223 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: that people seem to be taking, or they go into 224 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 1: highlight one bonds but then also going on cash. And 225 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,160 Speaker 1: one of the big fears has been that inflation risks 226 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:02,439 Speaker 1: are under a appreciated in markets. Do you feel like 227 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: that consensus view heading into next year is accurate and 228 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: and coheres with where PIMCO is at To be honest, 229 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 1: I'm not too worried about inflation. As I mentioned. I think, 230 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:15,960 Speaker 1: you know, like there are these secular forces that are 231 00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:20,079 Speaker 1: keeping inflation low. Phillips curves continues to look pretty flat, 232 00:13:20,320 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: and in the current kind of early weak course environment, 233 00:13:23,559 --> 00:13:27,240 Speaker 1: I don't really see corporate pricing becoming aggressive, and you know, 234 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,959 Speaker 1: I don't see significant increases in inflation. I mean, over 235 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,559 Speaker 1: the long run, there could be forces that lead inflation higher, 236 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: including protectionism, UM and UH and that that could limit 237 00:13:40,360 --> 00:13:43,080 Speaker 1: supply and and eventually raise inflation. But I think these 238 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: are longer term phenomena. NICOLEA, Thank you so much. Nicole. 239 00:13:47,080 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 1: Am I with us with pim coke seriously economic data, 240 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 1: big time economic data. The next two days Thomas for 241 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 1: Sally with US now with RBC Capital Markets time, have 242 00:14:08,080 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: you marked down Q one because of the Boeing effect? No, 243 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,880 Speaker 1: we haven't yet. Um. I mean we obviously are as 244 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 1: most others are fully aware that there is some potential 245 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 1: hit there. Um. But you know, whatever the hit is 246 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 1: going to be, I you know, it's just it's so 247 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: ridiculously academic. I mean whatever what you know, whatever they take, 248 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: they're going to give back. Um, So you know, whatever 249 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:31,880 Speaker 1: it is worth. I think people have to recognize, you know, 250 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,400 Speaker 1: just just to use a you know, fed lingo it 251 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,240 Speaker 1: it's gonna be a transitory effect. Is our is, our 252 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 1: audience are public. They have to get used to sub 253 00:14:40,200 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 1: two percent GDP or near two percent GDP. That's unacceptable, 254 00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:47,720 Speaker 1: it's un American. Well, but the reality is, but that's 255 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: that's what we've been doing, right. Uh. You know, there's 256 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: there there's no escaping from from that reality. I mean, 257 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,160 Speaker 1: it almost doesn't matter how you want to look at it. 258 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:56,920 Speaker 1: But you know, on a year of a year basis, 259 00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:59,000 Speaker 1: I mean we've been sort of you know, hugging you know, 260 00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 1: over slightly over slightly under the two percent line for 261 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: what the better part of the entire cycle. Um. I mean, 262 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 1: there's obviously been periods where we've sort of, you know, 263 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: gotten close to four percent, But then there has also 264 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 1: been periods over the course of the cycle, you know, 265 00:15:10,560 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 1: where we've gotten close to one and a half percent. 266 00:15:12,400 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 1: But you know that again, we're hugging the two percent line. 267 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: And that's been true for the vast majority of this expansion. 268 00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: And Tom, a lot of people would say that's just 269 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: fine as long as nothing goes wrong, and I guess 270 00:15:21,560 --> 00:15:23,720 Speaker 1: the margin of error gets a lot narrower when you 271 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: get closer to that stall speed. I'm just wondering, how 272 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 1: close are we to a place that is unsustainable for 273 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: an economic expansion? How far away? Yeah, at least I 274 00:15:34,520 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: think it's it's it's it's a great question. And I 275 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: think the way that you need to think of it is, 276 00:15:37,960 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: you know, sort of, what is the wherewithal for the 277 00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 1: consumer to continue to propel economic activity? And the reality 278 00:15:42,400 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: is the U s consumers And I mean, you know, 279 00:15:44,760 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: I hate to use, you know, sort of very fluffy words, 280 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 1: but you know they are in utterly fantastic shape. I mean, 281 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 1: it almost doesn't matter how you want to look at it. Um, 282 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: you know, whether it's the level of savings, whether it's 283 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: you know, sort of their their debt service ratios. I mean, 284 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: by almost any measure, the consumer has the ability to 285 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:05,080 Speaker 1: continue to propel consumption to around this this you know, 286 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,360 Speaker 1: sort of two percent page. So, you know, this idea 287 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:09,160 Speaker 1: of recession is funny. We're in the midst of writing 288 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:12,200 Speaker 1: our year ahead. Uh and and and the one thing 289 00:16:12,240 --> 00:16:15,240 Speaker 1: that we said about the year that was was that, 290 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,640 Speaker 1: you know, despite the fact that it was actually a 291 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:22,400 Speaker 1: pretty good year, people were overwhelmed by negativity. Right. It 292 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,440 Speaker 1: was like everyone kept on saying, the recession is here, 293 00:16:25,480 --> 00:16:27,440 Speaker 1: their sessions here. Yet here we are at much of 294 00:16:27,520 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 1: the conversation, we're having a moment ago chugging along at 295 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,360 Speaker 1: a at a two percent page. So you know, I 296 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 1: think what people have to do is they have to 297 00:16:34,160 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 1: keep their eye on this. You know, a really important idea, 298 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: and that is labor backdrop is really tight. Wage pressures 299 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: are probably going to continue. The consumer as a result, 300 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,920 Speaker 1: will be able to um really support a two percent 301 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: profile from a growth perspective in the coming year. I 302 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: just think it's great that obviously White until the end 303 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,680 Speaker 1: of the years put out the year ahead. You know 304 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: how some people write this thing in October going into November. 305 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 1: I'm very happy to do that. Tome just quickly, your 306 00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,800 Speaker 1: assessment of the labor market, with confusing so many different terms, 307 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 1: full employment, a cyclical, bacon labor market conditions than the 308 00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,800 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve chairman talking about slack, what's your assessment of 309 00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 1: the American labor market. The labor market is tight. I 310 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:16,000 Speaker 1: mean there that is. That is an inexcapable truth. Um. 311 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 1: I mean there's countless ways of driving that point home. 312 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: You know. One of the ways that I think you 313 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: can do is look at the number of people that 314 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,080 Speaker 1: are not in the labor force. This economy has done 315 00:17:26,160 --> 00:17:29,720 Speaker 1: a phenomenal job of pulling people that we're not in 316 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: the labor force back into the labor force. I mean 317 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:34,880 Speaker 1: we are now back down to um sort of previous 318 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: cycle levels from a not in the labor force perspective. 319 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:40,640 Speaker 1: In fact, we would say that we've probably pulled all 320 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 1: the people we can um from from the backdrop. And Jonathan, 321 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:45,480 Speaker 1: you've set me up nicely. Just to make with this 322 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,360 Speaker 1: one really important point, I think people have to get 323 00:17:48,400 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: comfortable with this idea that job growth is going to 324 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:52,640 Speaker 1: slow down. Now again, you're hearing this from someone who 325 00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 1: actually has a pretty constructive view in the backdrop. But 326 00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 1: the reality is, we've pulled so many people from the sidelines. 327 00:17:57,280 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: There's there's there's only so many additional people we can pull. 328 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 1: Break even from a job growth perspective is about a 329 00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: hundred thousand jobs. So even if you slow down to 330 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 1: a hundred jobs on average per month, which is what 331 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: we expect, you're still above break even. Um, that's still 332 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,080 Speaker 1: enough to keep the unemployment rate at a minimum steady 333 00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: and even push pushed down the unemployment rate to some extent. 334 00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: So I think we have to reorientate our thinking. We 335 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,520 Speaker 1: got to re orient ourselves to a discussion on wage 336 00:18:23,560 --> 00:18:26,119 Speaker 1: growth with you down the road, Tom PERCELLI, thank you 337 00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:45,560 Speaker 1: so much. With RBC Markets, Paul. We look over at 338 00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:47,879 Speaker 1: our screens here. We got like forty two TV screens 339 00:18:47,920 --> 00:18:51,360 Speaker 1: in the studio to keep us on and we're beginning 340 00:18:51,440 --> 00:18:53,440 Speaker 1: like six hours, which you know is going to be 341 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 1: seven or eight, right, I mean, it's just gonna go 342 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,920 Speaker 1: of this really historic moment. Whatever your policy, let's trying 343 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: to get the politics out of it right now and 344 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: just talk about the the tenor of the day. We 345 00:19:04,359 --> 00:19:07,000 Speaker 1: can do that with Emily Wilkins joining us now from 346 00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News in Washington. Emily, I speak of the tenor 347 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: of the day. Is there is it like excitement over this? 348 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 1: Is there a sadness over this? What's the actual mood 349 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:24,560 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill? Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said throughout this 350 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: process that this is a somber move. She has, you know, 351 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,159 Speaker 1: tried to do this without you know, excitement, without a 352 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: sense of you know, she's not trying to portray this 353 00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: as some sort of victory for Democrats to do this. 354 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 1: She's tried to keep it somber and solemn throughout. Prayerful 355 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,600 Speaker 1: is a word that she's used a lot. But right now, 356 00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 1: I mean, everyone's just sort of gearing up, as you said, 357 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 1: for what is expected to be a very long day. 358 00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,960 Speaker 1: At this point, we're not expecting to see votes on 359 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:54,760 Speaker 1: engachment until around seven thirty this evening, So Emily, give 360 00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,280 Speaker 1: us a sense of what actually is going to happen 361 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,760 Speaker 1: today in the House of Representatives. So the House of 362 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 1: Representatives are going to spend about the next six hours 363 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: debating the rules for the articles of impeachment, and through 364 00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,240 Speaker 1: that we're going to expect to see Republicans try to 365 00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: do certain things to delay this process. We've already seen 366 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,240 Speaker 1: this morning them call for a vote on a motion 367 00:20:16,320 --> 00:20:19,639 Speaker 1: to adjourn and everyone leave. Um. Of course, because Republicans 368 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:22,719 Speaker 1: do not have the majority, none of these attempts are 369 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: expected to actually proceed, but they could slow things down 370 00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 1: a little bit. But because the rule is structured, there 371 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,359 Speaker 1: isn't a lot of little room and so we definitely 372 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:34,239 Speaker 1: expect to see votes this seavening so emily. Will there 373 00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: be any kind of witnesses today? We was just just 374 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: representatives going back and forth against each other, kind of 375 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: pleading their side. This is just this is just the representatives. 376 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: This is to give lawmakers a time to come to 377 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,159 Speaker 1: the floor to speak to make their case. We're going 378 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,760 Speaker 1: to be seen perhaps witnesses over in the Senate. But 379 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:54,040 Speaker 1: the rules for how the Senate debate is going to 380 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,480 Speaker 1: go are still under discussion. That's going to be in 381 00:20:57,560 --> 00:21:00,800 Speaker 1: in January, and that's something that people are looking to 382 00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,959 Speaker 1: uh Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer 383 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,920 Speaker 1: to see how they wind up working that out. What 384 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,879 Speaker 1: are you looking for after this vote? I mean to 385 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:13,120 Speaker 1: be clear here, there's a vote tonight we're done right 386 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: in the House. Okay, then what happens next? What exactly 387 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:22,399 Speaker 1: happens next? So what happens next is that the House 388 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 1: is going to take the articles of impeachment and bring 389 00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,439 Speaker 1: them over to the Senate. And what they did? They 390 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: do that on a silver platter. I mean, how do 391 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: you actually do this? Does anyone you tweeted over? I 392 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:37,760 Speaker 1: think you actually have someone physically walk over between um, 393 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 1: walk over between the chambers and actually go ahead and 394 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,600 Speaker 1: announced to the Senate these articles of impeachment. I know 395 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: that's the way they've done it for previous bolts. Interesting 396 00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: and then, Emily, so give us a sense of what 397 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 1: let me get to the Senate that is actually going 398 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 1: to be a trial. So I'll go back to my 399 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,080 Speaker 1: previous question. Will I know there's a discussion point between 400 00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: Senator Schumer and McConnell about whether there will be witnesses called. 401 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 1: How how do you think that's going to play out? 402 00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 1: I mean, right now, Republicans do have the majority over there, 403 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,320 Speaker 1: so they do have something of an edge, but things 404 00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: need to be done consent. Uh. Schumer has certainly asked 405 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,200 Speaker 1: for witnesses to come. The White House has wanted to 406 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 1: witnesses to come they've wanted to present their case, but 407 00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,560 Speaker 1: there's also been discussion in Bloomberg's reported that there's some 408 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,800 Speaker 1: hope that this will be a pretty short process, that 409 00:22:26,920 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: they can have the individuals from the House and present 410 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 1: the case, will have Democrats present the case, who have 411 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: Republicans present the case, and that they can move pretty 412 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: quickly after that. Thank you so much, Emi will Coin's 413 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 1: greatly appreciate what it will be certainly a long day 414 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:44,720 Speaker 1: for heard on all of our Bloomberg News team in Washington. 415 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and 416 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast 417 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before 418 00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:03,000 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg 419 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:03,359 Speaker 1: Radio