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Speaker 1: Steve Englander of stand Chart joins us.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: Steve, thank you so much for joining us. So this
Speaker 1: was pretty much baked in. But really, depending on where
Speaker 1: US policy goes, is that going to be the deciding
Speaker 1: factor for this BOJ.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, if you read and watch what the
Speaker 4: boj is saying. Yesterday, they lifted up their inflation forecast,
Speaker 4: talk talked about upside risk. I actually think that a
Speaker 4: lot of this is driven by what's happening in Japan.
Speaker 4: The timing, I think is dictated by concerns over you know,
Speaker 4: is it going to be you know, full Trump or
Speaker 4: mini Trump in terms of the policy actions that he's
Speaker 4: taking in the disruption that he causes. But it's you know,
Speaker 4: I think the big surprise yesterday because a lot of
Speaker 4: people came into the meeting thinking that Boj was going
Speaker 4: to hike and then say, you know, we can afford
Speaker 4: to wait. They seem to have much more intensity about
Speaker 4: further hikes. We think that's all hike twice more this year,
Speaker 4: going up to one.
Speaker 5: Percent, and yet it's a yen that's reaction has kind
Speaker 5: of disappeared from this market. Steve, your interpretation seems to
Speaker 5: be one of a more hawkish Ueita and Boj than
Speaker 5: perhaps this market was expecting. Are you surprised we're not
Speaker 5: seeing more strength at this moment from the end.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm actually doubly surprised, because you know, it's not
Speaker 4: responding obviously to the sort of great differential story and
Speaker 4: at the short end, and in addition, in the past
Speaker 4: that's actually been pretty well correlated with CNH and the
Speaker 4: fact that the CNH has strengthened a lot and yet
Speaker 4: hasn't said, you know, done much this week.
Speaker 6: I think is remains a surprise.
Speaker 4: But I think if the market begins to think that
Speaker 4: the BOJ is serious about hiking.
Speaker 6: You know, we'll see those great differentials clothes.
Speaker 4: I mean, the rates gap between the UK and Switzerland
Speaker 4: is actually quite much wider than between the US and Japan.
Speaker 4: So I think that the you know, that story over time,
Speaker 4: I think will evolve.
Speaker 5: Steve, maybe we can add tripley surprise to this, because
Speaker 5: this is the week of Trump's inauguration, most asset classes
Speaker 5: have been trading and arranged. The place that we've seen
Speaker 5: the most volatility has come from this currency market, whether
Speaker 5: it be dollar, mex whether it be the Canadian looney.
Speaker 5: That's where we've seen the even strength coming from the euro.
Speaker 5: What do you make of the fact that it's been
Speaker 5: FX this week, the asset class that's seen the most
Speaker 5: reactiveness to the things coming from the Trump administration.
Speaker 6: Well, the way I see it, and if you if
Speaker 6: you look at what.
Speaker 4: Happened, say from the beginning of October when Trump presidential
Speaker 4: out started going up to you know, say the middle
Speaker 4: of last week, dollar strengthened way ahead, way beyond what
Speaker 4: interest rate differentials were telling you it should strengthen. And
Speaker 4: we think a lot of that was risk premium markets
Speaker 4: were going into the inauguration thinking sixty percent Haras on China,
Speaker 4: you know whatever, ten percent to twenty five percent, on
Speaker 4: the US's friends in the world, and a lot of
Speaker 4: risk premium, I think, and the focus was the FX
Speaker 4: market because that was kind of ground zero for where
Speaker 4: all of this would play out. And so I think
Speaker 4: what we're seeing is then unwind of that. You know,
Speaker 4: there's still a bit to go, but you know, euro
Speaker 4: could go up one percent and you could say it's
Speaker 4: risk premium. If it went up three percent, it would
Speaker 4: have to be something beyond that at this stage.
Speaker 7: Steve Michael Purvis here this is maybe a slightly bizarre question,
Speaker 7: but do you think Trump can make Europe great again?
Speaker 7: And what I mean by that is will if he
Speaker 7: goes aggressive on Europe, will it put the European countries,
Speaker 7: for example Germany in a place where they're going to
Speaker 7: be more fiscally expansive than they have been in the
Speaker 7: past and maybe even putting some reforms into their economies.
Speaker 7: There is that a scenario that we should be looking at.
Speaker 4: It couldn't be, but you know, I worked at the
Speaker 4: OECD thirty years ago and in the same structural issues
Speaker 4: that are still existing in Europe existed.
Speaker 6: Then it's a generation and a half ago.
Speaker 4: I do think you're right, and we think you're right
Speaker 4: that there's a chance that say, if we you know,
Speaker 4: we have a change in government, not to the a
Speaker 4: FD of course, but to the center and the strong
Speaker 4: longer cent as government, that they will sort of ease
Speaker 4: up on the death situation and they could do more
Speaker 4: fiscal expansion. I mean, if I had to bet on
Speaker 4: Europe changing policy for whatever reason, they may change macro.
Speaker 4: They seem determined not to do the sorts of things
Speaker 4: that you and I would call structural, fundamental micro structural reforms.
Speaker 1: Wow, Steve England or thank you so much for joining
Speaker 1: us this morning. Begin this hour, though with stocks at
Speaker 1: record highs after President Trump said he would rather not
Speaker 1: impose tariffs on China, Margie Patel of all Spring Global Investments,
Speaker 1: writing quote, Trump administration has announced many changes to regulations
Speaker 1: and new initiatives. It is too early to judge their
Speaker 1: effects in the economy and financial markets, but we believe
Speaker 1: many will reinforce the areas of the economy which we
Speaker 1: have expected strong growth. And Margie joins us. Now, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us this morning. I would
Speaker 1: love to just get your reaction to the past twenty
Speaker 1: four hours. And what surprised you the most about what
Speaker 1: we've heard from forty seventh President Donald Trump and the
Speaker 1: second administration seemingly touching every part of global financial markets.
Speaker 8: Well, I think that's really coming out strong and stating
Speaker 8: a lot of his positions and positions as you pointed out,
Speaker 8: maybe he doesn't expect to be achieved, but it's a
Speaker 8: good place to negotiate from.
Speaker 9: And I think the most.
Speaker 8: Important thing, frankly, is that the idea of higher taxes
Speaker 8: is totally off the board. That was a big risk
Speaker 8: of the market last year looking out into twenty twenty five.
Speaker 8: So I think that's the number one important thing is
Speaker 8: no increases in taxes and maybe even some lower taxes
Speaker 8: as well as lower regulation, which of course will be
Speaker 8: very positive for the markets.
Speaker 5: Margie, you are describing as status quo of sorts though,
Speaker 5: just an extension of the tax cuts. And Anne Marie
Speaker 5: got to this when she was reading some of your thoughts.
Speaker 5: How do you disaggregate the strength that this market is
Speaker 5: pricing in and the continued strength of equities just being
Speaker 5: a good business environment from a strong starting place versus
Speaker 5: actual policy. How dominant will politics actually be for risk assets.
Speaker 8: Well, I hope not too strong. I hope that the
Speaker 8: changes that are made will in fact reinforce the areas
Speaker 8: of strong growth that we've seen. And I think this
Speaker 8: year is going to be another year of continuing trends
Speaker 8: where technology is very strong, data center investments is very strong,
Speaker 8: Improving electrical grid is very strong, and we'll see more
Speaker 8: investment in our domestic energy sector. So those were all
Speaker 8: in play last year and I think they'll continue and
Speaker 8: this will be another year of surprisingly good profits and
Speaker 8: a surprisingly good equity market.
Speaker 5: There has been a shift though, over the past month
Speaker 5: or so, since about mid December, marking what you've seen outperform.
Speaker 5: It's been energy, utilities, industrials, financial cyclical parts of this
Speaker 5: market that are sensitive to growth. It is this extreme
Speaker 5: growth optimism that we're pricing in. Does that continue on
Speaker 5: or do we have an amend that makes us run
Speaker 5: back to the safety corners of the mag seven.
Speaker 8: Well, I don't think it's extreme optimism. I think when
Speaker 8: you look basically, putting aside the politics and we may
Speaker 8: get out of the new administration, is the US economy
Speaker 8: is really in good shape. We're growing at a sustained level,
Speaker 8: of you know, say two two and a half percent,
Speaker 8: and there are signs that growth may even be stronger,
Speaker 8: maybe closer to three percent. So that's really very very positive,
Speaker 8: and that would allow the stock market to be up
Speaker 8: say a ten twelve percent conservatively this year, maybe even higher.
Speaker 8: So I think the surprises might be continued growth and
Speaker 8: maybe even stronger than we're expected. Maybe that's what the
Speaker 8: market is really telegraphing, is continuation and further strengthening, particularly
Speaker 8: when we see these other areas that have broadened.
Speaker 10: Out a little bit.
Speaker 7: Margie, one question for you. You know, we're dealing with
Speaker 7: a very high valuation on the S and P five
Speaker 7: hundred and through a lot of the sub and disease there.
Speaker 7: You know, it's about you know, sort of top two
Speaker 7: percent valuations here. Do you see at multiple compression as
Speaker 7: sort of something that's going to happen or do you
Speaker 7: think the market will the earnings will be so explosive
Speaker 7: this year that it will actually bring the multiple down
Speaker 7: to more normalized levels that way, Well.
Speaker 8: I don't think the market is you know, an average
Speaker 8: doesn't tell you the whole story. If you look, you
Speaker 8: have a small, relatively small number of stocks that have
Speaker 8: very high growth, you know, earnings growth of say twenty percent.
Speaker 8: Those are the ones that are trading at big premiums
Speaker 8: for PE. And then a lot of the market that's
Speaker 8: actually having very low growth has a relatively more modest PE.
Speaker 8: So when you put it together, it looks optically a
Speaker 8: little higher. But I think the market is fairly priced,
Speaker 8: and I think that a lot of the uncertainty that
Speaker 8: we have has has really gone out. There's a more
Speaker 8: positive outlook. I do think though last year we had
Speaker 8: a lot of our total return in the standard pores,
Speaker 8: which was up twenty five percent, was due to expansion
Speaker 8: of the price earnings multiple. I think this year we'll
Speaker 8: probably see more companies whose earnings are high will get
Speaker 8: a higher stock price, and not that expansion in PE
Speaker 8: just really look more dependent on the profit growth of companies.
Speaker 11: Gotcha.
Speaker 7: So PE's going to stay where they are. But are
Speaker 7: you Are you bullish on the rotation away from big
Speaker 7: tech in the more cyclical parts right now?
Speaker 8: Well, I think only those cyclical parts that are part
Speaker 8: of this more secular change in secular growth, which is
Speaker 8: I think the reshoring back to America is real and
Speaker 8: it's going to continue. I think the investment we need
Speaker 8: for data centers is a decade long process. And also
Speaker 8: the electrical grid, which looks very stable for a long time,
Speaker 8: now suddenly looks as if we'll have growth in demand
Speaker 8: for power and we need to strengthen the grid expanding it.
Speaker 8: So that's a lot of additional revenue for the industrial
Speaker 8: sector and technology is part of that. So we think
Speaker 8: those will continue. And the energy, domestic energy, it looks
Speaker 8: now as if there was sort of a cloud over
Speaker 8: that energy sector, I think is actually more positive. We
Speaker 8: may see more investment from the energy sector.
Speaker 1: It's something Washington, DC is definitely focused on, whether it's
Speaker 1: AI data centers or just unleashing more when it comes
Speaker 1: to American energy. Margie Patel, thank you so much for
Speaker 1: your time this morning. Of course, of all Spring global investments,
Speaker 1: Mohammab and Salman made a six hundred billion dollar pledge
Speaker 1: to Trump on Wednesday. Former senior US intelligence official Norman
Speaker 1: Rule calling the pledge quote powerful evidence that real believes
Speaker 1: the US will remain its foundational security and economic partner
Speaker 1: for decades. Norman, thank you so much for joining us
Speaker 1: this morning. He's also part of CSIS. When it comes
Speaker 1: to the Saudi's investing this amount of money into the
Speaker 1: United States. Now Trump up a nanny and saying, maybe
Speaker 1: we can get to a trillion dollars. Like the way
Speaker 1: that sounds better at the end of the day is
Speaker 1: just as Red choosing Washington over Beijing.
Speaker 11: Good morning.
Speaker 3: In part, this is Riod choosing Washington over the world.
Speaker 3: But this is also Riod choosing the American high tech
Speaker 3: sector over the world. Saudi Arabia's drivers are the success
Speaker 3: of the Vision twenty thirty, transformation of its society as
Speaker 3: well as its economy. It believes that artificial intelligence will
Speaker 3: accelerate that process, provide jobs for a rising generation, transform
Speaker 3: the kingdom's industries, and all of that goodness, all of
Speaker 3: that power will come from a long term relationship with
Speaker 3: the United States.
Speaker 5: It's not the only place that Trump made headlines when
Speaker 5: it comes to Saudi. Norm he also said that he
Speaker 5: would ask Saudi to lower the price of oil. Is
Speaker 5: that relationship strong enough? Is what Saudi gets out of
Speaker 5: the US when it comes to economic security. Some of
Speaker 5: the things you're talking about enough of an incentive for
Speaker 5: them to act in a way that might be against
Speaker 5: some of their economic benefit.
Speaker 3: Well, here's it. Becomes more complicated. First, this is an
Speaker 3: OPECK plus decision. There are some OPECK plus members that
Speaker 3: might be willing to produce more, but some are at capacity.
Speaker 3: So this really does just leave Saudi Arabia, the Emirates
Speaker 3: and Kuwait.
Speaker 11: But there's a bit of a tension here.
Speaker 3: The lower oil prices become, the less revenue Sadi will
Speaker 3: have to invest, not only in its Vision twenty thirty
Speaker 3: domestic plans, but within the United States itself.
Speaker 11: So I think you're looking at oil.
Speaker 3: Prices that once they would say, reach the sixty dollars sixties,
Speaker 3: really cutting into the amount of money that Saudi Arabia
Speaker 3: would have to put it to meet its investment promises
Speaker 3: to the Trump administration.
Speaker 10: That's one of the contradictions of asking for more production
Speaker 10: if you think it's going to lower prices, because in
Speaker 10: the end, what you end up doing is saying, Okay,
Speaker 10: where's that volume versus price argument? And so I think
Speaker 10: that they probably have the most spare capacity, But you
Speaker 10: could also vision that there might be a small give
Speaker 10: back on production because they are holding some back as
Speaker 10: opposed to a major giveback on production. Do you have
Speaker 10: any thought about how that actually plays out? In the
Speaker 10: real world as opposed to just a request.
Speaker 11: Sure, the Kingdom has two primary goals market.
Speaker 3: Stability and maintaining a capacity to be a swing producer
Speaker 3: driver to prevent any sudden shifts within the market. That
Speaker 3: will drive a relationship with Russia because they have a
Speaker 3: capacity to impact the market. But the Kingdom actually has
Speaker 3: less control over what happens in the United States in
Speaker 3: terms of its market. So we're sort of reaching the
Speaker 3: end or the high point of what fracking can do.
Speaker 3: The Kingdom can produce probably another million or two million
Speaker 3: barrels of on the market. The Emirates could do the
Speaker 3: same thing, and I think some from Kuwait. But I
Speaker 3: think in the end, stability in the market is going
Speaker 3: to be the driver that shapes where OPEC plus goes.
Speaker 1: Norm When it comes to the three big adversaries in
Speaker 1: the United States, China, Russian Iron we've seen President Trump
Speaker 1: in his first week really focus in on Russia and
Speaker 1: putting the onus on Putin to get to the table.
Speaker 1: What's the strategy when it comes to ending this war.
Speaker 11: Well, I think the strategy is clear.
Speaker 3: First, he has assigned General Keith Kellogg, a very experienced
Speaker 3: national security official, to work this and General Kellogg's work
Speaker 3: is continuing, but it is low profile. Second, he has
Speaker 3: gone to the Ukrainians and has said, you know, you
Speaker 3: need a deal. But at the same time, just as
Speaker 3: Trump produces to encourages NATO to increase his spending against Russia,
Speaker 3: he has encouraged Ukraine to enlist eighteen to twenty five
Speaker 3: year olds in its army. So I think Ukraine, he believes,
Speaker 3: is ready for a deal, but Russia.
Speaker 11: Has yet to come to the table in a meaningful way.
Speaker 3: And that explains the President's comments on Russia's the pressure
Speaker 3: we bring on Russia's economy, which are real. I mean,
Speaker 3: Russia is spending a tremendous amount of money in this war.
Speaker 3: We're talking over forty percent of its budget is now
Speaker 3: devoted to military issues. Its labor market is being squeezed
Speaker 3: to the limits. You're looking at a collapse of foreign investment.
Speaker 3: It's lost markets. I mean, this is a This is
Speaker 3: really a tremendous blow to any of the world's economy.
Speaker 3: And I think the President's views of I will put
Speaker 3: more pressure on that economy is how he plans to
Speaker 3: bring this forward.
Speaker 1: Norman, thank you so much for your time this morning.
Speaker 1: Norman Rule of CSIS joining US now is Libby Cantrell
Speaker 1: of PIMPKO. So he's making a ton of news. It's
Speaker 1: the first full week, basically working week of his administration,
Speaker 1: slew of executive orders, John voting the Fed, telling the
Speaker 1: Saudis to add more barrels to the market, and then
Speaker 1: last night seemingly signaling to China that he has the
Speaker 1: power in tariff them, but he doesn't want to use
Speaker 1: them yet. What do you take away from all of this?
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean it has been flooding the zone. You
Speaker 9: forgot about the big Ai announcement. Course itself would have
Speaker 9: been a massive announcement that would have driven news for
Speaker 9: a week, and yet it was a little bit drowned
Speaker 9: out because of all these executive orders. I mean, obviously
Speaker 9: a lot of our clients very focused on tariff risk.
Speaker 9: I think, you know, taking some comfort in the fact
Speaker 9: that President Trump hasn't done anything at least definitive on
Speaker 9: China or other countries. I mean, we think it's a
Speaker 9: little premature to start celebrating, and we think the direction
Speaker 9: of travel here is very clear. They did issue an
Speaker 9: America First Trade memorandum that made it was basically a
Speaker 9: roadmap for how they are thinking about trade. It goes
Speaker 9: from everything from kind of rewriting free trade agreements to
Speaker 9: looking at currency relationships to looking at outbound investment from
Speaker 9: the US to China. So I think what we are
Speaker 9: telling our clients and then also I'm telling our traders
Speaker 9: is let's not sort of celebrate this too prematurely. This
Speaker 9: is a deep seated ideology. As we've talked about, there's
Speaker 9: a revenue component here, but there's also you know, I
Speaker 9: think you know, he believes in tariffs. He believes in
Speaker 9: tariff's work in terms of you've seen the trade deficit
Speaker 9: as it relates to China. I mean, it is complicated, right,
Speaker 9: There are other things that I think the President wants
Speaker 9: from China as it relates to the Ukraine War, for instance,
Speaker 9: And I think that he will is intentionally sort of
Speaker 9: slow walking a tariffs or actions on China. I just
Speaker 9: we should not conflate that though with no future action,
Speaker 9: because I do believe that teriffs will be increasing, probably
Speaker 9: across the board, but also in China in particular.
Speaker 1: Well, when it comes to the signal he's sending, maybe
Speaker 1: he's slow walking it. That's been a huge relief rally
Speaker 1: even just today in Asia, in Europe, in global currencies,
Speaker 1: you know, the dollars much much weaker. When it comes
Speaker 1: to China. It's not just the war in Ukraine, it's
Speaker 1: also TikTok. There's so many levers he's trying to pull.
Speaker 1: Where does all of this stack up in terms of
Speaker 1: the priority list.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, I think that's that's an no good question.
Speaker 9: And I do think, I mean, these are our different dimensions.
Speaker 9: I think different advisors care about different things here. Of course,
Speaker 9: you know, as we've talked about, he has a cadre
Speaker 9: of folks who are advising him under Trump two point zero,
Speaker 9: who are all so they're under Trump one point zero,
Speaker 9: who don't necessarily trust the Chinese. They view that the
Speaker 9: Chinese do not honor the Phase one trade agreement. I
Speaker 9: think there's going to be a real review. I mean,
Speaker 9: in this memorandum, there's an order to actually look at
Speaker 9: the Phase one trade agreement, to kind of create a
Speaker 9: scorecard around that, and to publish that. So I do
Speaker 9: think again, this is you know, actions are likely coming
Speaker 9: on China. I do think the market, though, should celebrate
Speaker 9: the fact that it's going to be intentional, it's going
Speaker 9: to be thought out. It's going to be strategic and
Speaker 9: maybe not sort of the worst fear that the market
Speaker 9: at least was predicted.
Speaker 5: Can I just go back to where we started, this
Speaker 5: very simple fact that we got so much this week.
Speaker 5: I mean, it is a reminder of what it was
Speaker 5: like around last time that you have him talking to reporters,
Speaker 5: making news, posting things on social media and making news,
Speaker 5: giving different speeches.
Speaker 1: It is a lot.
Speaker 5: What is your advice to your traders, to your clients
Speaker 5: and how to sort through all of it, what to
Speaker 5: pay attention to and maybe what you can ignore.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, great question.
Speaker 9: I think you know from US from a fixed income perspective,
Speaker 9: you know what drives bond yields, growth, inflation, currency, and
Speaker 9: of course obviously the FED at the end of the
Speaker 9: day in terms.
Speaker 5: Of the US.
Speaker 9: So anything that really will have a tangible impact on
Speaker 9: those drivers. A lot of these executive orders, I call
Speaker 9: them kind of more sizzle than steak. A lot of
Speaker 9: them are, you know, for the sort of shock and
Speaker 9: awe value versus actually the substance value. Now, a lot
Speaker 9: of them will be more substantive, and I think even
Speaker 9: on the federal workforce, some of the things he's done
Speaker 9: in terms of the hiring freeze, rolling back the DEI.
Speaker 9: While that may have a long tail, that will have
Speaker 9: an impact in terms of you know, employment of federal
Speaker 9: workforce and potentially incrementally on the budget. The end of
Speaker 9: the day, though, the big things that drive the markets
Speaker 9: are going to be again the big macro movers. A
Speaker 9: lot of that has to do with Congress, and we
Speaker 9: haven't you know, Congress, we Van Marie and I Lament.
Speaker 9: You know, Congress is understandably trying to get their ducks
Speaker 9: in a row with navigating incredibly narrow majorities, and so
Speaker 9: you know, I think that I think the focus will
Speaker 9: turn probably turn away sort of inevitably from him a bit,
Speaker 9: and you know, onto on Congress once they start proceeding
Speaker 9: with this reconciliation bill and taxes and spending. Got someonet,
Speaker 9: have you?
Speaker 12: Levy Jay here, I'm curious as to you how important
Speaker 12: the foreign investor base is for treasuries. We have a
Speaker 12: tremendous amount of treasury issuance coming this year, dollars starting
Speaker 12: to weaken. Foreign investors very heavily invested in US assets.
Speaker 12: Is there any concern at all that perhaps this can
Speaker 12: build on itself and foreign investors become less interested in
Speaker 12: treasuries and pushing the price or sorry, pushing the yields
Speaker 12: up and price down.
Speaker 9: Yeah, And I think that this has been a concern
Speaker 9: in the marketplace over the last few years around sort
Speaker 9: of de dollarization, around foreign central banks sort of diversifying
Speaker 9: away from kind of dollar based assets into a basket
Speaker 9: of other currencies and other sovereign assets. I'm not sure
Speaker 9: we've really seen a lot of data that actually supports that.
Speaker 9: In fact, when you did see sort of some foreign
Speaker 9: buyers kind of pull away over the last few years,
Speaker 9: you actually saw some domestic pension plans and institutional investors
Speaker 9: actually sort of fill that gap. But recently it looks like,
Speaker 9: according to the data, that there has been more activity
Speaker 9: in terms of foreign central banks. And that's partly just
Speaker 9: because fields look pretty nice, right, I mean, is the
Speaker 9: US bomb market actually, you know, looks pretty attractive right
Speaker 9: now from both a nominal yield but also a real
Speaker 9: yield perspective.
Speaker 1: And if you think.
Speaker 9: That maybe he's going to may do something on tariffs,
Speaker 9: but it won't be the sort of the full kind
Speaker 9: of manty on tariffs, then maybe you're sort of starting
Speaker 9: to dip your toe into the water. So I don't
Speaker 9: think we see that as a real concern. And again,
Speaker 9: there seems to be a lot of domestic demand that
Speaker 9: has supplemented.
Speaker 1: That does he wait for tariffs because he wants the
Speaker 1: good news that can happen with a reconciliation what he
Speaker 1: calls one big, powerful, beautiful, powerful bill to come out.
Speaker 1: Is that what he's waiting on bake in the good
Speaker 1: news first the financial markets, and then potentially add in
Speaker 1: some of the not so great.
Speaker 9: Yeah, and may do you think there is going to
Speaker 9: be a consideration around sort of eating your vegetables any
Speaker 9: dean dessert, And I think trying to give both to
Speaker 9: the market, not just trying to chew on one and
Speaker 9: not chew on the other. And you know, obviously, you know,
Speaker 9: as we all know, folks in this administration are very
Speaker 9: markets oriented. You know, they President Trump views the economy
Speaker 9: under Trump one point zero, the SMP under Trump one
Speaker 9: point oh, as you know, part.
Speaker 1: Of his legacy.
Speaker 9: So I do think they're going to be mindful of
Speaker 9: all of this. Again, though I wouldn't confuse this with
Speaker 9: the fact that we're not going to see terrriffaction. And
Speaker 9: I do think, you know, maybe something that in the
Speaker 9: marketplace that's maybe not being taken as seriously is sort
Speaker 9: of the threat on Canada and Mexico. As we know,
Speaker 9: the USMCA review is coming up next year. It sounds
Speaker 9: like President Trump might want it to actually pull that forward,
Speaker 9: and the sort of the tariff threat might be sort
Speaker 9: of associated with that.
Speaker 13: The review started, he's negotiating the review is sorry, and
Speaker 13: you know who will be negotiating that on behalf of
Speaker 13: Canada sort of TBD obviously, but I do think that
Speaker 13: that is.
Speaker 9: You know, sort of part and parcel of this. So
Speaker 9: you know, while I think investors and we have been
Speaker 9: sort of focused on the China potential China actions, they
Speaker 9: actually might be you know, much much closer to the
Speaker 9: United States, our neighbors of North Luby Cantrell of Pempco,
Speaker 9: thank you so much.
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