Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: They've got a deal on hostages. Welcome to the fastest
Speaker 2: show in politics. As the Biden administration helps to broker
Speaker 2: in agreement to secure the release of fifty hostages held
Speaker 2: by Hamas, including Americans, in exchange for one hundred and
Speaker 2: fifty Palestinians held by Israel. We will talk about details
Speaker 2: of the plan, walk through what we know, and discuss
Speaker 2: what it might lead to with Congressman Ami Bera, the
Speaker 2: Democrat from California, serves on the House Foreign Affairs and
Speaker 2: Intelligence committees and is with us at the table this
Speaker 2: day before Thanksgiving, Republicans win a special House election in Utah,
Speaker 2: and Andrew Cuomo reportedly thinking about a run for mayor
Speaker 2: of New York City. We'll have analysis and all these
Speaker 2: stories from our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis
Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shansey or with us for the hour. So
Speaker 2: thanks for joining on the radio, on the satellite, and
Speaker 2: on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Global News. The cameras are lit
Speaker 2: as we welcome the congressman to the table, Amy Bera
Speaker 2: of the sixth District of California. It's great to see you, sir,
Speaker 2: and welcome back to Bloomberg Jo.
Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on.
Speaker 2: You're like the only lawmaker left in Washington today, so
Speaker 2: cheers to you, and thanks for being with us for
Speaker 2: an important conversation. I know that this is an important
Speaker 2: matter to you, based on your perch on the Foreign
Speaker 2: Affairs and Intelligence Committees, and based on your role as
Speaker 2: a doctor. I don't know if you prefer to be
Speaker 2: called doctor or congressman. You can tell me that later.
Speaker 2: You have a unique view as to what's coming here
Speaker 2: because it reminds us that not only do we have
Speaker 2: a breakthrough, but there are also two hundred hostages still
Speaker 2: in Gaza.
Speaker 4: No absolutely, and being on the Intelligence Committee, we've been
Speaker 4: getting briefed on a pretty daily basis about the situation
Speaker 4: October seventh, but post October seventh and then the negotiations
Speaker 4: with the hostages. Yeah, President Biden, his now security team,
Speaker 4: his ogn policy.
Speaker 3: Team have been very much involved in this.
Speaker 4: And you heard Prime Minister and yeah who talk about
Speaker 4: calling the president to help get a better deal, and
Speaker 4: the focus really has been on the safe return of
Speaker 4: the hostages. So I think this was a breakthrough yesterday.
Speaker 2: And what do you make of this three to one?
Speaker 4: You know, I think we always anticipate it would be
Speaker 4: something like that. You know, it sounds like it's Palestinian
Speaker 4: women and teenagers in exchange for the first tranch of
Speaker 4: hostages being a lot of children and women. There's that
Speaker 4: possibility of you know, continuing the hostage exchange, and you know,
Speaker 4: I think, yeah, this is a good first step.
Speaker 2: Well, the hostage exchange comes with the pause, as we're
Speaker 2: calling it, not a ceasefire, and I know that's deliberate
Speaker 2: language that we're using. It also allows for three hundred
Speaker 2: AID trucks a day to be coming in from Egypt.
Speaker 2: That might be equally as important a component here when
Speaker 2: you consider the plight right now Ballastinian.
Speaker 4: Civilians incredibly important, you know, and I do see this
Speaker 4: as a doctor. You know, you've watched you know, the
Speaker 4: healthcare professionals, the doctors in Gaza talking about having to
Speaker 4: operate without anesthesia, hospitals running out of fuel, folks running
Speaker 4: out of medicine, and just the massive innocent civilian loss.
Speaker 4: So you know, that's not helping the cause of trying
Speaker 4: to find peace. It's also in my mind, not making
Speaker 4: as real more secure. So, you know, can we take
Speaker 4: advantage of this pause. Can we get needed humanitarian aid, food, water, medicines,
Speaker 4: fuel into Gaza to the civilians, not to Hamas, And
Speaker 4: then can we take this temporary pause and maybe make
Speaker 4: it a little bit more permanent.
Speaker 2: The message from Benjamin et Yahoo was very clear yesterday
Speaker 2: not to cease fire. In fact, when this pause is over,
Speaker 2: we will resume fighting in Gaza to root out Hamas.
Speaker 2: With that said, there's the potential for a second phase
Speaker 2: here that could lead to a more lasting cease fire,
Speaker 2: maybe something we would actually refer to there. Are you
Speaker 2: concerned about benjaminettya who's posture at a time that could
Speaker 2: lead to a breakthrough.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they're going to continue to degrade Hamas.
Speaker 4: They're going to continue to do what they have to
Speaker 4: do in order to secure the Israeli people. But is
Speaker 4: there a different way to prosecute this work? Can you
Speaker 4: do something a little more surgical, more tactical, minimize the
Speaker 4: massive innocent civilian lives lost, The destruction. I mean, at
Speaker 4: the end of the day, the Palestinian people have to
Speaker 4: live somewhere, and you know, I don't think it's a
Speaker 4: great idea for Israel to try to occupy Gaza.
Speaker 3: I'm not sure what that looks like.
Speaker 4: So can we take this pause, Can we think about
Speaker 4: what might a two state solution look like?
Speaker 3: You know, and start that conversation.
Speaker 2: A two state solution, boy, And it feels far away
Speaker 2: at the moment. The administration has received a lot of
Speaker 2: cre from many progressive Democrats about the way that this
Speaker 2: war is being comported, even though that it is not
Speaker 2: the US conducting this battle but full throated and support
Speaker 2: for Israel while thousands of Palestinian civilians die. You can
Speaker 2: look at this one way or the other. It's very
Speaker 2: easy to blame Hamas in this case. The Biden administration
Speaker 2: would tell you that's what we should do, but it
Speaker 2: creates a political problem for him on the left. What
Speaker 2: do you hear from your colleagues in the House.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Hamas clearly instigated this war, so that yeah, there's
Speaker 4: no debate about who started this war, and Israel clearly
Speaker 4: has the responsibility to protect its civilians and make sure
Speaker 4: something like October seventh, doesn't happen again. That said, you know,
Speaker 4: you do see the massive humanitarian crisis taking place, the
Speaker 4: loss of life. You know, it's heart wrenching to see
Speaker 4: young children being pulled out of rubble and so forth.
Speaker 3: So, you know, I think President Biden's.
Speaker 4: Been very clear in the US focus. Obviously, we will
Speaker 4: continue to help Israel secure its security. Moving the aircraft
Speaker 4: carriers into the region, we were making sure this doesn't
Speaker 4: extend or expand into another front, so that is also
Speaker 4: clear at our mission. And then you know, the attacks
Speaker 4: on our troops and others in the region, we have
Speaker 4: to respond to that as well.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 2: What are you hearing on your committees? And I suspect
Speaker 2: it's both of them at this point, But I imagine
Speaker 2: that the Intelligence Committee has been quite a wealth of information,
Speaker 2: most of which you probably cannot share with me right now.
Speaker 2: But do you think that the presence of these two
Speaker 2: carrier groups helped to avoid a second front? Would Iran
Speaker 2: have been involved in this now? If the US hadn't
Speaker 2: acted the way.
Speaker 4: To you know, I think moving the assets very quickly
Speaker 4: has really you know, there's an initial concern about has
Speaker 4: Well perhaps getting involved here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we haven't really seen that. You know, you've
Speaker 3: seen missile launches and so forth, but not a full
Speaker 3: scale involvement.
Speaker 4: And then you have Iranian proxy groups in Syria, in Iraq,
Speaker 4: the Huti rebels in Yemen. Again, I think we, along
Speaker 4: with others, have been doing what we have to do
Speaker 4: to make sure this doesn't spread, many.
Speaker 2: Have suggested, and it's not just now, it's part of
Speaker 2: being the president of the United States. There are things
Speaker 2: the president knows that we will never imagine. And people
Speaker 2: question the president's demeanor when he walks into a room.
Speaker 2: Why does he look tired today? Why does he seem
Speaker 2: angry with reporters? What kind of information is he hearing
Speaker 2: when he's briefed in the morning or when he interacts
Speaker 2: with intelligence officials?
Speaker 4: Right now, you know, being president of the United States
Speaker 4: probably is the hardest job in the world.
Speaker 3: And think about it.
Speaker 4: There's two real hot conflicts going on in this world.
Speaker 4: You've got the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine. And
Speaker 4: you know, I met with some Ukrainian civilians and healthcare
Speaker 4: professionals earlier this week, and you know, they just talk
Speaker 4: about the atrocities that they're coming across and what's happening,
Speaker 4: and you know they're about to enter another winner. So
Speaker 4: that's got a way on the president now, crisis in
Speaker 4: the Middle East and trying to get the hostages back
Speaker 4: to diplomacy, all at the same time where last week
Speaker 4: he was meeting with Shijiping trying to find a path
Speaker 4: forward to avoid conflict in Asia, so incredibly challenging job.
Speaker 4: I think the president's been doing a great job.
Speaker 2: This here why they see. It's not for the faint
Speaker 2: of heart or not necessarily for an old man. Do
Speaker 2: you worry about his ability to do that for another
Speaker 2: four years?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 4: I think he's been a great president, and you don't
Speaker 4: hear people criticizing the job. I equate age with experience,
Speaker 4: and he's the most experienced president that we've had, and
Speaker 4: I think the voters should look at his record of achievement.
Speaker 4: And if you look at that record of achievement, we've
Speaker 4: got the strongest economy in the world. Unemployment is way down,
Speaker 4: wages are rising, and then with these conflicts around the world,
Speaker 4: and as someone on intelligence and foreign policy, I think
Speaker 4: he's doing a great job keeping a world together.
Speaker 3: Right now, we're.
Speaker 2: Spending time with Congressman I'mibera of California. The attention is
Speaker 2: going to shift from that end of Pennsylvania Avenue back
Speaker 2: to Congress when you return next week or when your
Speaker 2: colleagues do you, for the record, are still here at it.
Speaker 2: You can start negotiating a budget right now. But with
Speaker 2: that said, it may not come easily. The conversation around
Speaker 2: Israeli funding. Your new speaker decided to strip that away
Speaker 2: from Ukraine, Taiwan and the border to bring that to
Speaker 2: a vote with I realize what you saw as a
Speaker 2: poison pill with defunding the irs to a point here,
Speaker 2: it's going to have to take some shape though, and
Speaker 2: I wonder if you have that vision in your head.
Speaker 4: I mean, I think we would like to do both
Speaker 4: Ukraine and Israel supplement altogether. I think you know, you're
Speaker 4: starting to hear some of my Republican colleagues say, Hey,
Speaker 4: what you're asking for with regards to Taiwan or the
Speaker 4: end of Pacific's not enough. My friend Mike Gallagher certainly
Speaker 4: is asking for more, so.
Speaker 3: That could be part of this.
Speaker 4: And then I do think you know it's fair for
Speaker 4: us to do something on the southern border.
Speaker 3: I mean, we've got a real challenge there.
Speaker 4: I do think Republicans may want something different than what
Speaker 4: we're looking at. But you know, let's negotiate around how
Speaker 4: we secure our southern border and perhaps put all that
Speaker 4: together in a security supplemental.
Speaker 2: Based on what you've seen by this Republican majority, is
Speaker 2: it possible to get that done at the same time
Speaker 2: as figure out how to avoid a government shutdown in January?
Speaker 4: I mean, as we've seen time and time again, the
Speaker 4: only way to do that is through a bipartisan deal.
Speaker 4: They need you, well, they need me and folks like
Speaker 4: me ye are willing to negotiate, compromise and find a
Speaker 4: middle ground. And you know that's not going to be
Speaker 4: the extremes on the far right or the extremes on
Speaker 4: the far left. It'll be a center right, center left coalition.
Speaker 2: Or do you optimistic that that exists based on what
Speaker 2: you've seen? The Speaker was at mar A Lago last week,
Speaker 2: and I understand, yeah, but he doesn't want to be
Speaker 2: working with you.
Speaker 4: You know, Speaker Johnson did the right thing by you know,
Speaker 4: doing a relatively clean cr You know that he got
Speaker 4: a victory in this two step process again, and I
Speaker 4: think we were satisfied with it, so you know, at
Speaker 4: the end of the day, it is going to take
Speaker 4: by partisanship. And I think he realizes that. I think
Speaker 4: former Speaker Kevin McCarthy realized that. And you know, it
Speaker 4: always came down to Democrats and Republicans working together.
Speaker 2: You talk to Kevin McCarthy, he's your colleague from the
Speaker 2: California delegation. You see him in the cafeteria line. Now,
Speaker 2: I mean, what's his life like as a former speaker?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't want to speculate on what Kevin McCarthy's thinking.
Speaker 4: Hopefully there's no elbow checks in the back or anything
Speaker 4: like that.
Speaker 2: Sounds like you haven't gone out for drinks lately. People
Speaker 2: should know that you were instrumental and I know this
Speaker 2: is very important to you in helping to settle Afghan refugees.
Speaker 2: We have a situation now where Israel's neighbors are not
Speaker 2: opening their doors to Palestinians that have been urged to
Speaker 2: evacuate for instance. What's the answer to this.
Speaker 4: You know, I think we're going to continue to put
Speaker 4: pressure on Egypt. Obviously they've got a shared border with
Speaker 4: Gaza and the Rafa crossing. You know, I think we
Speaker 4: will continue to talk to the other Arab nations, and
Speaker 4: now there's they have to be part of the solution.
Speaker 4: And again, if you can get a prolonged, positive and
Speaker 4: potentially a cease fire, any two state solution, any security
Speaker 4: guarantees are going to involve the other countries in the region.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well you start wondering as well, with the US
Speaker 2: play a role in housing refugees or is that just
Speaker 2: too far away to be practical now.
Speaker 4: I think we've always taken refugees in Sacramento County, which
Speaker 4: is my home district, has always been a place where,
Speaker 4: you know, going back to the Vietnam War, you know
Speaker 4: a lot of Southeast Asian refugees in the Sacramento region,
Speaker 4: you know, to what we went through a couple of
Speaker 4: years ago with the Afghan refugees. We've got one of
Speaker 4: the largest populations and I would say that the refugees
Speaker 4: really add to.
Speaker 3: The diversity and what makes Sacramento great.
Speaker 4: And again, we're a country where we should take our
Speaker 4: fair share, but obviously work with everyone else.
Speaker 2: To sit down at the Thanksgiving table tomorrow, and we
Speaker 2: know that politics will probably be talked about in a
Speaker 2: few households. There was a poll that I've referred to
Speaker 2: repeatedly from Quinnipiac this week, six out of ten voters
Speaker 2: are hoping that politics will not be in the conversation
Speaker 2: at the dinner table. But it's hard to avoid when
Speaker 2: issues like inflation are driving politics. The things that we
Speaker 2: deal with every day, the prices that we pay, and
Speaker 2: I suspect that's going to be part of what comes
Speaker 2: up tomorrow. What do you want people to know that
Speaker 2: they might not be aware of when they say, hey,
Speaker 2: this costs a lot more than it did in twenty nineteen,
Speaker 2: or hey, this president's too old to get out of
Speaker 2: bed in the morning. What would Ami Behra tell them
Speaker 2: if you was at the other side of the table, I'd.
Speaker 4: Say, when we give our blessings before we carve into
Speaker 4: that turkey, let's look at the complexity of world. Let's
Speaker 4: hope for a better, kinder country and world. And you know,
Speaker 4: there's much more that binds us together than separates us
Speaker 4: and the other divisions that sometimes you see in Congress,
Speaker 4: or divisions you see across the dinner table. If we
Speaker 4: could actually find some civility, find the ability to look
Speaker 4: at the world from someone else's eyes, and that's what
Speaker 4: I'm trying to do. You know, again, when I think
Speaker 4: about the tragedy in Gaza, I can see it. You know,
Speaker 4: when I talk to my Palestinian American constituents, the pain
Speaker 4: and anguish and their voices, it's the same thing when
Speaker 4: I was talking to families of hostage victims that are
Speaker 4: praying for their relatives safe return from when they were
Speaker 4: taken by Amas.
Speaker 3: They have that same pain and anguish.
Speaker 4: So if we could learn to see the world from
Speaker 4: someone else's eyes, you know, we might find a path forward.
Speaker 2: That's a wonderful answer. And I appreciate your coming to
Speaker 2: see us today. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family,
Speaker 2: even if you have to spend it here in the
Speaker 2: nation's capital.
Speaker 3: Happy Thanksgiving. At least I got to deal with my family.
Speaker 2: Indeed, thank you, Congressman. That's really all we can ask for,
Speaker 2: isn't it. Our best to your family and cheers. Thank
Speaker 2: you for joining us. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg Sound On as we assemble our panel for
Speaker 2: a quick swing at some of the issues we were
Speaker 2: talking about with the Congressman. We'll have a lot more
Speaker 2: time as well with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano here
Speaker 2: they are primed for Turkey and some pretty good news today, Jeanie.
Speaker 2: In a hostage agreement that we talked about yesterday, it
Speaker 2: seems to have largely taken the form of what we expected.
Speaker 2: Is this a win for Joe Biden?
Speaker 6: You know, I do think it is. We even heard
Speaker 6: from Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday who said he was given the
Speaker 6: deal that cutter in the United States had broken, and
Speaker 6: he didn't like parts of it. He went to Biden,
Speaker 6: they were able to rectify it, and he personally thanked
Speaker 6: Joe Biden. So I do think it is. But I
Speaker 6: think very very smartly, the administration cannot and should not
Speaker 6: take a victory lap on anything here. These are fifty
Speaker 6: of more than two hundred hostages. There is so much
Speaker 6: more work to be done, and I think Jake Sullivan
Speaker 6: on the Morning Show is said the same. So I
Speaker 6: think tone is absolutely appropriate, and they do deserve kudos
Speaker 6: for this work they've done in a really, really awful situation.
Speaker 2: Well, this is a good point, Genie, and you're not
Speaker 2: the first to suggest that this isn't time to be
Speaker 2: taken victory laps or celebrating here, Rick, Obviously, this is
Speaker 2: very good news for fifty families, some of them American,
Speaker 2: but the Genie's point, there are two hundred others. Does
Speaker 2: this actually help to potentially unlock another deal?
Speaker 7: Sure? I think that the Katari foreign minister said just
Speaker 7: that that you know, this isn't you know the game done?
Speaker 7: This is the game begins, and that game is if
Speaker 7: you can entice these terrorists into releasing hostages for you know,
Speaker 7: certain kinds of terms like ceasefires, then maybe you just
Speaker 7: keep tacking on and you know, the terms of this
Speaker 7: are you get another day of a ceasefire if you
Speaker 7: give us ten more hostages. The hope would be that
Speaker 7: you could get all these hostages released by year end,
Speaker 7: and there's some indications from Palestinian officials that that could
Speaker 7: be the potential outcome. So crush fingers, keep your you know,
Speaker 7: keep your hold your breath. But it does theme that
Speaker 7: we're headed in the right direction when it comes to
Speaker 7: a flow of hostages coming out of Gaza.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Rick makes a great point. Israel says it will
Speaker 2: extend the pause for every additional ten hostages. So this
Speaker 2: could take on a lot of different forms here in
Speaker 2: the coming days, that we're going to have a deeper
Speaker 2: dive with Rick and Jeanie on this important development here
Speaker 2: on the day before Thanksgiving. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.
Speaker 2: I'm glad you joined us on sound on This is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: Israel is calling it a pause, Hamas calls it a truce.
Speaker 2: Whatever you want to call it. The White House wants
Speaker 2: you to know that President Biden was deeply involved. Jake
Speaker 2: Sullivan speaking about the hostage deal the hostage released deal
Speaker 2: announced today, speaking on ABC's Good Morning America about the
Speaker 2: role that the President of the United States played in
Speaker 2: achieving their freedom.
Speaker 8: The key honestly was bearing down on both sides, working
Speaker 8: the United States closely with Cutter and with the government
Speaker 8: of Egypt to get both sides to essentially get specific
Speaker 8: and the big move happened late last week when President
Speaker 8: Biden spoke first with Prime Minister net Yahoo and then
Speaker 8: with the amiror Cutter to say how many hostages for
Speaker 8: how many days in return for how many Palestinian prisoners.
Speaker 8: And it was really the work to refine those details
Speaker 8: that finally produce the breakthrough that we now see resulting
Speaker 8: in the announcement of appause in hostilities and the first
Speaker 8: return to prisoners of hostages.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno are signature panel back together
Speaker 2: for their thoughts on this deal now that it has emerged.
Speaker 2: We should note, by the way, the President is not
Speaker 2: in town. He is on Nanta bucket celebrating Thanksgiving with
Speaker 2: the family. And this deal came together late yesterday. We
Speaker 2: were waiting for it. I'm sure he thought it might
Speaker 2: emerge before he left the city. But no big announcement here,
Speaker 2: no Rose Garden announcement coming from the White House, despite
Speaker 2: the fact that the administration was clearly deeply involved in this. Genie,
Speaker 2: you made the point before, it's not time to be
Speaker 2: celebrating or taking victory laps with two hundred more hostages
Speaker 2: in Gaza. But this administration clearly wants people to know
Speaker 2: that Joe Biden was on the phone helping him make
Speaker 2: this happen.
Speaker 6: Yeah, they do, and with good reason. I think it's
Speaker 6: another case of Joe Biden, you know, being very good
Speaker 6: and delivering. Again. We have to be cautious here because
Speaker 6: they haven't been delivered yet, but delivering on a promise
Speaker 6: to try to strike a deal. But it's not something
Speaker 6: that's visible to most Americans. And so you know, to
Speaker 6: hear Jake Sullivan today out in the morning shows you
Speaker 6: just played Netflick, he's absolutely right to make the case.
Speaker 6: You know, this is I think the scope and the
Speaker 6: scale of what if this comes through, they have achieved,
Speaker 6: if they get these fifty children and women out, is
Speaker 6: quite remarkable. We've never seen anything like it. And you know,
Speaker 6: it's just chilling when you think about the specifics here.
Speaker 6: Israel has released some information that are being given to
Speaker 6: Israeli soldiers who are going to be potentially greeting the
Speaker 6: children when they come out, sort of a script of
Speaker 6: what to do and what not to do. It is utterly,
Speaker 6: utterly frightening to read and to think about what these
Speaker 6: people have gone through and the fact that we may
Speaker 6: see three Americans come out, and we don't know yet,
Speaker 6: but that then there are about two hundred remaining. The
Speaker 6: scope and the scale is astonishing, and you know, President
Speaker 6: of Biden deserves kudos if this work. But again there's
Speaker 6: a lot more work to be done. And watch for
Speaker 6: a divide between the US and Israel continuing to get
Speaker 6: to be exacerbated because all three of the statements we
Speaker 6: saw from the White House ended focusing on the release
Speaker 6: of hostages versus Israel and net and Yahoo. They are
Speaker 6: going back to their primary goal of destroying Hamas. Many
Speaker 6: people feel those two goals are in conflict and the
Speaker 6: resolution to those is really difficult to parse your way
Speaker 6: out of.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's one way of looking at it, Rick,
Speaker 2: Some folks think that they're not in conflict and in
Speaker 2: fact are reliant upon each other. How do you look
Speaker 2: at it?
Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, I mean presidencies for as long back as
Speaker 7: we can remember have suffered under expectations and disappointments in
Speaker 7: the Middle East. You know, whether it's all at war
Speaker 7: like what we have now, or failed peace initiatives. You know,
Speaker 7: it's actually part of the methodology you see the Biden
Speaker 7: White House using. Try to take some credit, but don't
Speaker 7: expect to get out too far because your heart's going
Speaker 7: to get broken at some point along the way here,
Speaker 7: and you know, you just got to protect the presidency
Speaker 7: from looking like it's taking credit from something that actually
Speaker 7: turns into another bad thing. So there's so much that
Speaker 7: can go wrong, not just with this initial release of hostages,
Speaker 7: but with ultimately the war that is going on now
Speaker 7: and how long it'll lasts and what it'll looked like
Speaker 7: five years from now. And and so the good news
Speaker 7: for the Biden White House is that it's not likely
Speaker 7: to be a major issue in the general election. I mean,
Speaker 7: they'd like to get out from underneath some of the
Speaker 7: negatives that have happened some of the protest movements in
Speaker 7: the United States. And so you see, you know, very
Speaker 7: careful orchestrations, which is why, by the way, you wouldn't
Speaker 7: see a rose garden or a presidential speech, because the
Speaker 7: last thing that they want to do is putting too
Speaker 7: far out in front of something that could wind up
Speaker 7: being a disaster. So the foreign policy, you know, brief
Speaker 7: and national politics though, is pretty minimal. He doesn't have
Speaker 7: to prove to anybody that he can be commander in chief.
Speaker 7: He's been at and so really I think the White
Speaker 7: House is probably sit around, you know, by the time
Speaker 7: the first hostages here released tomorrow, starting to think about
Speaker 7: how they can start talking about the economy again.
Speaker 6: Hmm.
Speaker 2: Interesting. I thought maybe we'd see a statement or something
Speaker 2: from Joe Biden on Nantucket, Genie. You know, you pull
Speaker 2: out the pipe and drape they can always go live
Speaker 2: from there. Maybe a message to Americans on Thanksgiving Eve
Speaker 2: that they're making progress in the Middle East. Does that
Speaker 2: not happen?
Speaker 6: You know, I think we may. I think they are
Speaker 6: very worried and rightly so about getting ahead of their skis,
Speaker 6: So I think they may wait until we see an
Speaker 6: actual release, which which would make sense. But you know,
Speaker 6: on the point that you were and Grick were just
Speaker 6: talking about other things to watch for. You know, we
Speaker 6: are hearing about a real connection continuing between Iran and Russia.
Speaker 6: Russia potentially giving hes Blood air defense missiles, Iran giving
Speaker 6: Russia some type of munitions, some type of missiles to
Speaker 6: use over Ukraine. Those are the kinds of things that
Speaker 6: can really blow up, to use a horrible expression in
Speaker 6: the administration's face as we face a real, real challenge
Speaker 6: containing this in the Middle East, and so it's really
Speaker 6: important to watch out for that. We even heard Jijin
Speaker 6: Ping talking about this at Bricks yesterday. So, you know,
Speaker 6: in their virtual meeting and calling for a two state
Speaker 6: solution and putin responding, so so much international pressure and
Speaker 6: so much international foreign policy issues riding on this. It
Speaker 6: can really blow up in a number of different ways
Speaker 6: that the administration can't foreseek. So they got to be
Speaker 6: very careful about what they say publicly.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I asked Congressman Barah about the funding
Speaker 2: for Israel not to mention Ukraine and the others that
Speaker 2: are in the supplemental budget request from the White House. Rick,
Speaker 2: And it does look like Republicans have at least let
Speaker 2: a little bit more asurety in their majority. Celeste molloy
Speaker 2: won this special election in Utah to fill the seat
Speaker 2: of former Congressman Chris Stewart, so it stays Republican. And
Speaker 2: knowing that George Santos may be losing his seat imminently,
Speaker 2: does this help Speaker Johnson plan around the looming budget
Speaker 2: debate or is it just a wash the way you
Speaker 2: look at it?
Speaker 7: No, I think it's I mean, obviously every little bit
Speaker 7: is important here in a very closely divided Congress, and
Speaker 7: he's been without one extra vote, so you know, the
Speaker 7: margins have been super slim. You know, just three people
Speaker 7: would make a difference in getting something past or having
Speaker 7: it fail. So one vote matters, and you can't guarantee
Speaker 7: that Santos will be expelled. I mean, it really sounds
Speaker 7: like there's an attitude right now that they really don't
Speaker 7: care anymore to lose that vote. And he's he's been
Speaker 7: such an egregious abuser of the law that he needs
Speaker 7: to go. But I'm not going to hold my breath
Speaker 7: on that. I mean, Congress has has has has not
Speaker 7: really distinguished itself this year as being, you know, uh,
Speaker 7: a object of profile and courage. So yeah, I mean, look,
Speaker 7: it's it's pretty clear though. I mean, let's just be clear.
Speaker 7: Nothing's going to pass this Congress without a bipartisan Democrat
Speaker 7: and Republican coalition to push legislation through, just like they
Speaker 7: just did on the cr and they did before on
Speaker 7: the debt limit.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 7: Conservative Mavericks, Freedom Caucus, the MAGA extremists, whatever you want
Speaker 7: to call him, They're going to hold this place up.
Speaker 7: They don't care if Washington burns, they don't care if
Speaker 7: people miss their paychecks. They are trying to create you know,
Speaker 7: all kinds of disruption within the federal government. Uh, they
Speaker 7: just assume not fund the Justice Department, the military, the
Speaker 7: the the FBI. So you know, you're you're in a
Speaker 7: You're in a cycle. And hopeful Speaker Johnson recognizes it
Speaker 7: that without bipartisan cooperation, people like the congressman you just interviewed,
Speaker 7: who are prepared to go to work and get things
Speaker 7: done with Republicans and Democrats alike. You know, unless you
Speaker 7: have that, you're not going to get anything done.
Speaker 2: There you have it from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzana,
Speaker 2: our signature panel, and I hope you know how thankful
Speaker 2: I am and we are for you your insights, your friendship
Speaker 2: and companionship here on sound On. Cheers to you both,
Speaker 2: and have a great holiday. Kayley's on the way in next. Hour.
Speaker 2: Two of sound On starts right now.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, where there is another Kaylee Lines is
Speaker 2: here as well. Nice to see you. Actually, I shouldn't
Speaker 2: say that. Congressman Ambi Berra was with us in studio
Speaker 2: last hour. I think he is actually the only lawmaker
Speaker 2: maybe in Washington today. The President is gone. He's on Nantucket.
Speaker 2: By the way. I don't know if we need to
Speaker 2: have a little instructional thing about that. I keep reading
Speaker 2: that he's in Nantucket. You can't be in an island, right.
Speaker 2: That's how when we're in New England, we say you're
Speaker 2: on Nantucket, you're on.
Speaker 9: The Vineyard, but you're not on Manhattan.
Speaker 2: No, And that's New York's own problem. I feel like,
Speaker 2: you're not in Survivor Island. You're on Survivor Island. Interesting,
Speaker 2: And we actually do that for things up there other
Speaker 2: than islands. You see, you're on the Cape, You're not
Speaker 2: in Cape Cod, you're on Cape cut Interesting. It's just
Speaker 2: been bothering me. It clearly is. I'm sure it's grammatically incorrect,
Speaker 2: but I'm sticking with it. The President on Nantucket. He
Speaker 2: does this every year. It's a Nantucket thing. And I'm
Speaker 2: not sure if that has anything to do with just
Speaker 2: getting away from it all. But I'll tell you what.
Speaker 2: There's nothing happening on Nantucket right now.
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, there's not much happening here in DC either.
Speaker 9: I think pretty much every lawmaker is soaking up all
Speaker 9: of the family holiday time that they're getting, soaking up
Speaker 9: their thankfulness because they're probably just filled with dread at
Speaker 9: the prospect of returning to DC and dealing with all
Speaker 9: of the business they have to deal.
Speaker 2: With's on the other side of the stay lines. So
Speaker 2: some would not blame them for that. I guess. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they're going to hear from constituents. They're going to second
Speaker 2: guess this whole speaker thing. God knows what else will
Speaker 2: come out of the wash by the time they're back.
Speaker 2: We're going to talk about that and the latest on
Speaker 2: the campaign trail coming up with our friend Terry Haynes
Speaker 2: from Pangaea Policy. We're totally pulling him off of his
Speaker 2: time off as well. I think we're very kind to
Speaker 2: joy it to bring us direction. And we've got an
Speaker 2: eye on what's happening on Niagara Falls. This popped up
Speaker 2: last hour, Kayley, and it looks like we have a
Speaker 2: new headline from Fox. This appears to have been a
Speaker 2: fatal event at the bridge, the Rainbow Bridge that connects
Speaker 2: Canada and the US.
Speaker 9: Yeah, just about a mile from Niagara Falls. Of course,
Speaker 9: we already had understood that there was a vehicle explosion
Speaker 9: that the FBI was invest gating, and now according to Fox,
Speaker 9: that explosion was an attempted terrorist attack. There are two
Speaker 9: dead wow, in that car explosion. Again, this is according
Speaker 9: to Fox. Our is a lot we still don't know here,
Speaker 9: and we know that New York Governor Kathy Hochel is
Speaker 9: en route in this direction right now. As you're seeing
Speaker 9: the border crossings all throughout this area, a number of
Speaker 9: them closed at the moment.
Speaker 2: This is incredible stuff and it's developing very quickly here
Speaker 2: before our eyes. Governor Kathy Hochel on her way to
Speaker 2: the border, apparently to Niagara Falls, will of course bring
Speaker 2: you comments from her if we get them. But this
Speaker 2: literally just happened less than an hour ago, So this
Speaker 2: is going to take some time here. But to see
Speaker 2: that headline from Fox an attempted terror attack, I'd like
Speaker 2: to see the attribution and know more about it. We're
Speaker 2: obviously letting you know what we know as we learn it,
Speaker 2: and you're seeing these headlines cross the Terminal and Bloomberg
Speaker 2: dot Com all the while. We should bring Terry in.
Speaker 2: Terry Haines, of course, the founder of Pangaea Policy and
Speaker 2: a regular voice here at Bloomberg Us now on sound On.
Speaker 2: It's great to see it, Terry. Thank you for giving
Speaker 2: us a little bit of time. I had a lot
Speaker 2: of questions for you about what's happening in Iowa here
Speaker 2: and on the campaign trail. But I'll tell you what,
Speaker 2: it's hard to ignore this story at Niagara Falls. When
Speaker 2: you see a headline like that, it does seem to
Speaker 2: bring credibility to what Christopher Ray, the head of the FBI,
Speaker 2: has been telling lawmakers that domestic terror threats are near
Speaker 2: an all time high right now.
Speaker 5: Well, absolutely, and thank you for having me. You know,
Speaker 5: one way I think about this is I wrote a
Speaker 5: note for clients almost exactly ten years ago laying out
Speaker 5: where the parties were on immigration, on border security, and
Speaker 5: what was likely or more likely or what was likely
Speaker 5: not to happen. Really, I could exhume that note and
Speaker 5: the parties would pretty much be in exactly the same place.
Speaker 5: But the ice is finally starting to crack in Washington
Speaker 5: a little bit on this, and it'd be too soon
Speaker 5: to say, you know, to expect action, but this is
Speaker 5: the kind of event that will spur people into action.
Speaker 5: What you've heard in the last couple of weeks in Washington,
Speaker 5: I think has been fascinating if you're interested in border
Speaker 5: of security. Not only is border security funding policy changes
Speaker 5: part of the part of the discussion around an integral
Speaker 5: part of the discussion around Ukraine AID and Israel AID.
Speaker 5: But you've got people across the political spectrum that are
Speaker 5: saying that things that actually have to change. Peter Welch
Speaker 5: of Vermont, I mean, somebody I've known for a very
Speaker 5: very long time, very good guy. You know, Peter put
Speaker 5: the P and progressive pretty much. And Peter's been saying
Speaker 5: publicly over the past couple of weeks that something needs
Speaker 5: to change. We actually need to do something here substantively.
Speaker 5: And if you've got thoughtful people like Peter Welch saying that,
Speaker 5: you know, and you have an event like this that's
Speaker 5: just happened, you know, the stars are starting to align
Speaker 5: for some sort of action here.
Speaker 9: I think, Well, change is one thing to hope for,
Speaker 9: and it's easy to talk about, but as we often
Speaker 9: learn and have seen born out time and again, change
Speaker 9: is much harder to actually implement terry. Even if something
Speaker 9: like this happening at the northern border, when a lot
Speaker 9: of attention has been paid to the southern border, does
Speaker 9: provide a bit more impetus, it still becomes a matter
Speaker 9: of trying to get everyone aligned and how long realistically
Speaker 9: that takes. You mentioned how the border security issue is
Speaker 9: becoming very tied to the issue of providing funding for
Speaker 9: other country securities Ukraine and Israel funding especially. Do you
Speaker 9: think realistically this is something that can be achieved in
Speaker 9: twenty twenty three or is this a new year issue.
Speaker 5: I've got it as seventy five percent that something happens
Speaker 5: on this the something being Ukraine aid, Israel AID border
Speaker 5: security by the end of twenty twenty three. That's you know,
Speaker 5: that's a little more than a twenty twenty five percent.
Speaker 5: There is a little more than a trailing risk that
Speaker 5: something doesn't happen. But the way that this has been
Speaker 5: set up, and I know it was set up first
Speaker 5: by the President and Republicans in Congress have really taken
Speaker 5: it by the horns. You know, something on border security
Speaker 5: substantively as well as unfunding, has to happen otherwise you're
Speaker 5: not going to get Israeli or Ukraine ate. So now
Speaker 5: we've got a real forcing event here. So once everybody
Speaker 5: comes back next week, I would look for the next
Speaker 5: four weeks to be chok full of that debate with
Speaker 5: an eye towards getting something meaningful done.
Speaker 2: I don't know what your thought is on this, but
Speaker 2: it's clearly going to bring up a conversation about border
Speaker 2: security to the north and the south. Terry Vivek Ramaswami
Speaker 2: is in fact calling for the US to build a
Speaker 2: US Canada border wall, not unlike the Trump border wall
Speaker 2: on our southern border. Is that a serious idea or not?
Speaker 5: That's profoundly and unserious. That is a I read that
Speaker 5: as as an attempt for mister Ramaswami to reach out
Speaker 5: to twenty sixteen and twenty twenty Trump voters and pretty
Speaker 5: much nothing else. And Ramaswami is not a dumb guy.
Speaker 5: He knows that's an infeasible idea.
Speaker 2: That's my kind of response. Kay, imagine floating an idea
Speaker 2: and having Terry Hayes call it profoundly unserious.
Speaker 9: You know, it reminds me of the Logan roy in
Speaker 9: Succession thing where he says he loves his children, but
Speaker 9: they are not serious people. You just kind of gave
Speaker 9: me that vibe, Terry. Just now, of course, the vag
Speaker 9: Ramaswami is still vying for the Republican nomination, as are
Speaker 9: a number of other candidates. It doesn't seem though, at
Speaker 9: least at this time, that he is one of the
Speaker 9: one runs in running for the silver medal. This is
Speaker 9: a race for second place, as we know, with Donald
Speaker 9: Trump still out front, but Ron DeSantis, who is one
Speaker 9: of the two, the other being Nikki Haley, trying to
Speaker 9: get that second split second place spot.
Speaker 6: We're almost there.
Speaker 9: Uh did get a key endorsement in Iowa, and this
Speaker 9: is not the first that he's gotten. Kim Reynolds also
Speaker 9: had endorsed him previously. Now an endorsement from a highly
Speaker 9: influential evangelical. Do you think that gets him that number
Speaker 9: two spot in Iowa? Terry? How consequential is this?
Speaker 5: Well? I think it is consequential, Kaylee. Uh, it's certainly
Speaker 5: gonna The star is certainly aligned well for mister DeSantis
Speaker 5: right now, Let's put it that way.
Speaker 9: Uh.
Speaker 5: You know, I have a little bit of a different
Speaker 5: take on the race. And uh, it's and let me
Speaker 5: start by saying it's awfully fluid, Uh Iowa. Iowa's caucussers
Speaker 5: are not going to focus with real intent until after
Speaker 5: the first of the year. I mean, we're talking about
Speaker 5: an event that's really going to happen almost two months
Speaker 5: from now, so not an inconsiderable period of time, and
Speaker 5: the holidays go by and all the rest.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 5: But I would urge people to look at it this way.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 5: The the Trump national numbers mean nothing. National beauty contests
Speaker 5: are never relevant in presidential elections because the president is
Speaker 5: never is never picked that way because we all know
Speaker 5: very well this has to do with electoral college and
Speaker 5: not popular vote. So there's that Trump's numbers in Iowa
Speaker 5: New Hampshire are more than ten points less than the
Speaker 5: national beauty contest numbers. We see a trend, we see
Speaker 5: true trends, one where the race is consolidating over the
Speaker 5: past three months. And I think it's really down to
Speaker 5: the Trump alternative is really down to DeSantis or Hailey
Speaker 5: and in no particular order right now. But in Iowa,
Speaker 5: you know, DeSantis has has put his entire campaign on
Speaker 5: winning in Iowa, and now he's gotten the endorsements of
Speaker 5: Governor Reynolds and now of mister van der Platts of
Speaker 5: the Family Organization, which are sub which are serious endorsements, substantive.
Speaker 5: They equate to boots on the ground. As vander Platz
Speaker 5: himself said, I'm paraphrasing, but said last night, I mean,
Speaker 5: you know, these are the kind of endorsements that equate to,
Speaker 5: you know, people actually working for the nomination, you know,
Speaker 5: not just not just standstill kind of endorsements. So you know,
Speaker 5: I think DeSantis has got some momentum here. I would
Speaker 5: look for the narrative in the in the national media
Speaker 5: to start in the next month or so to start
Speaker 5: wondering whether Trump is now underperforming, because it doesn't take
Speaker 5: much to look at or see a world where in
Speaker 5: Iowa Trump comes off a mid forties and comes down
Speaker 5: into the thirties. Once folks second choices, whether that be
Speaker 5: DeSantis or Haley start kicking in, and then people are
Speaker 5: going to start to say, well, this is a horse race.
Speaker 5: This is a two person, three person horse race. We
Speaker 5: have a month going into New Hampshire and we've got
Speaker 5: Christy's still trying to push there because he's got the
Speaker 5: same sort of strategy as the Santas does. So, you know,
Speaker 5: I think there's actually a lot of life in this
Speaker 5: in this nomination process yet, and we should all watch
Speaker 5: for that over the next month to month and a quarter,
Speaker 5: you know, past the first of the year, when things
Speaker 5: were really going to start either shifting towards the challengers
Speaker 5: to Santas or Haley, or alternatively they run out of
Speaker 5: steam and then it really does start to look like
Speaker 5: a Trump nomination.
Speaker 2: Vander Platts has backed the Iowa Republican winner in the
Speaker 2: last three contested Iowa caucuses. We've talked last hour about
Speaker 2: how that worked for John McCain in two thousand and eight.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis certainly remembers it. Could we be in a
Speaker 2: world terry then, in which Ron DeSantis wins Iowa and
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley wins New Hampshire.
Speaker 5: What happens then, Well, then you're going to have a
Speaker 5: situation where you have two viable challengers, you know, no
Speaker 5: more consolidation yet, and you're going to run into the
Speaker 5: You're going to run into this kind of the Super
Speaker 5: Tuesday block of states where it's going to start to
Speaker 5: look like either Trump is going to either Trump is
Speaker 5: going to consolidate a vote or the challengers are going
Speaker 5: to start to consolidate a vote, and either way it
Speaker 5: looks like it's either done on the one hand or
Speaker 5: on the other hand. It's a real life horse race.
Speaker 5: So and we're still, you know, two and a half
Speaker 5: months out from that, so a lot of time left
Speaker 5: in this race.
Speaker 9: Two and a half months feels like a long time,
Speaker 9: but I think we all know that fly Yeah, and
Speaker 9: it might Terry, it might also be barely enough time
Speaker 9: to pass a budget because we're talking Iowa here, and
Speaker 9: at the same time potentially a government shutdown.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's we're getting to the point of
Speaker 5: perfection now where there's just going to be like rolling
Speaker 5: continuing resolutions, temporary funding for all years, you know, and
Speaker 5: we're not really that far off. Yeah, we're really not
Speaker 5: that far off from that. But what we're going to
Speaker 5: have in terms of government funding is a world where
Speaker 5: in mid January, the Republican purists in the House are
Speaker 5: going to have to have to figure out whether they're
Speaker 5: going to throw another fit or if they're of the
Speaker 5: kind that toppled Speaker McCarthy yet something of what they
Speaker 5: want or not. But either way, what listeners should understand
Speaker 5: and viewers should understand is that, you know, this is
Speaker 5: all very demonstrative performative on both sides. You know, one
Speaker 5: side wants to talk about DRACONI and cuts, the other
Speaker 5: one the other ones wants to talk about the idea
Speaker 5: that they're starting to make them that's really one percent
Speaker 5: out of thirty percent of the overall spending of the
Speaker 5: federal government. So that will roll us back to the
Speaker 5: dark days of fiscal twenty two. So you know, in reality,
Speaker 5: we're arguing about almost nothing but yet.
Speaker 9: Very small.
Speaker 2: But please the whole thing down. Hey, Terry, thanks for joining.
Speaker 2: We're very thankful for your contributions and your friendship and
Speaker 2: your smart analysis. We hope you have a great holiday.
Speaker 2: Terry Haynes at Pangaea. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: One of the other.
Speaker 2: Stories we're following brings us overseas and of course, to
Speaker 2: the price of oil. Here we were gearing up for
Speaker 2: big OPEC meeting this weekend. It has been scheduled.
Speaker 9: It has been postponed to November thirtieth, and this racal
Speaker 9: lot of questions and frankly a lot of fear in
Speaker 9: the market right now. Because this is a cartel, they
Speaker 9: have to make joint decisions on what their production is
Speaker 9: going to be like that directly affects the oil price,
Speaker 9: and the delay of the meeting suggests that they're having
Speaker 9: a little bit of difficulty deciding what that production should
Speaker 9: look like and if they can't keep an agreement together.
Speaker 9: We've seen this happen in years past where it has
Speaker 9: dramatic implications for oil markets. So we want to get
Speaker 9: a little bit more insight into this. Joining us now
Speaker 9: as ellen Wald, she is a senior fellow at the
Speaker 9: Atlantic Council, also the author of Saudi Inc. Ellen, thank
Speaker 9: you so much for joining us. Of course, Saudi Arabia
Speaker 9: plays a really critical role in this. They have been
Speaker 9: shouldering a lot of the burden of production cuts to
Speaker 9: this point, and I just wonder if the signals to
Speaker 9: you that the Saudis are less willing to go it
Speaker 9: alone now that they want everybody to be moving together,
Speaker 9: and not everybody is willing exactly.
Speaker 10: And the Saudis have definitely and at times this is
Speaker 10: not the only time that they have extended their goodwill
Speaker 10: and made extra production cuts outside of what they're technically
Speaker 10: obligated to do under the OPAQ and OPEQ plus agreements
Speaker 10: and so, but these are not indefinite. The Saudis are
Speaker 10: not going to keep a million barrels a day off
Speaker 10: of the market forever, and they're certainly not going to
Speaker 10: do it if other members aren't fulfilling or living up
Speaker 10: to their parts of the deal. And the way that
Speaker 10: OPEK plus production agreements are structured essentially that every country
Speaker 10: has a baseline production and then whether they are decreasing
Speaker 10: or increasing production comes at a proportion of that. So
Speaker 10: every country involved is going to cut, say five percent
Speaker 10: from their baseline, or they're going to increase by three
Speaker 10: percent from their baseline, and that's how that's how they
Speaker 10: maintain this kind of fairness. And so what we're seeing
Speaker 10: or what we think the issues are right now is
Speaker 10: that the baselines have changed. Some countries are not able
Speaker 10: to actually produce as much as they were, you know,
Speaker 10: in twenty sixteen when these baselines were created, and other
Speaker 10: countries have invested and expanded the production capacity and so
Speaker 10: they'd like higher baselines.
Speaker 7: And back in.
Speaker 10: June, a whole bunch of African countries were told that
Speaker 10: their baselines were going to decrease unless they could prove
Speaker 10: that they could actually produce more by November. And now
Speaker 10: it's November, and a lot of these countries are very
Speaker 10: upset because if their baseline decreases, it means that they're
Speaker 10: going to have to cut production because they're supposed to
Speaker 10: cut a certain percentage of the baseline, and this is
Speaker 10: very distressing to them, and so I think this is
Speaker 10: one of the main reasons why the meeting is delayed.
Speaker 2: So Ellen, could we be in a world than in
Speaker 2: which some of these disagreements lead some members to consider
Speaker 2: leaving OPEK.
Speaker 10: That's entirely possible, and I think that that is probably preferable,
Speaker 10: at least for the kind of core membership. That's a
Speaker 10: preferable alternative to say, not having any agreement or to
Speaker 10: capitulating in some respects. And this has happened before in
Speaker 10: twenty sixteen when they reached the overall Declaration of Cooperation,
Speaker 10: where they all agreed to cut. Indonesia left the group
Speaker 10: because it said we can't afford to cut at all,
Speaker 10: so they essentially just left the group. Since then, Cutter
Speaker 10: has left the group, so it's not unheard of.
Speaker 3: It would be I.
Speaker 10: Think, very difficult if a large number of African producers
Speaker 10: left because recently a lot of these members have joined.
Speaker 10: They are representing a big, an important source of production
Speaker 10: for the future, and so I think OPEC would really
Speaker 10: like to do what they can to keep these members
Speaker 10: in the group because for the future that's very important
Speaker 10: to them, and to keep these members in because the
Speaker 10: more production that happens outside of OPEC, the less control
Speaker 10: and influence OPEK can have over the market supply.
Speaker 9: Okay, so let's talk about those prices.
Speaker 6: Ellen.
Speaker 9: What price is it that you think Saudi Arabia, for example,
Speaker 9: would like to see and what price range could we
Speaker 9: see if there is no agreement on production potentially and
Speaker 9: everybody decides to pump a lot, or if there is
Speaker 9: and they decide to constrain supply even more. For those
Speaker 9: in Washington very much concerned with the price at the pump,
Speaker 9: what's the risk here? How asymmetric is it?
Speaker 1: So I don't think that.
Speaker 10: I think there's a very low risk that prices are
Speaker 10: going to go high. We're in a period now where
Speaker 10: prices generally trends lower. We're looking at issues in terms
Speaker 10: of demand. There's some weaknesses, economic weaknesses that people see
Speaker 10: in China. So I don't think we're really at risk of,
Speaker 10: you know, suddenly having a massive production cut that's going
Speaker 10: to send prices sky high. I would say we shouldn't
Speaker 10: really be worried about that. But what we should be worried,
Speaker 10: what we could be worried about is the group falling
Speaker 10: apart or the group becoming less in line with the market.
Speaker 10: So when you have countries that are producing and they're
Speaker 10: not producing up to their quota, or the quotas don't match,
Speaker 10: the market lacks the right information about who's pumping what oil,
Speaker 10: and that's really important, I think. And so bringing these
Speaker 10: numbers in line with their actual capabilities provides really vital
Speaker 10: information to the people who are looking at the market
Speaker 10: and saying, hey, wait, how much actual oil is out there?
Speaker 10: And I think that provides really valuable information and helps
Speaker 10: decrease volatility. So what we're looking at now is increase
Speaker 10: volatility with the potential for things to go farther downward
Speaker 10: if we don't get any agreement. I think it's unlikely
Speaker 10: we won't see any agreement because OPE can always try
Speaker 10: to maintain the status quo, which isn't great, but at
Speaker 10: least it's something, and it's better than, say, you know,
Speaker 10: an all out supply production contest. I think we're unlikely
Speaker 10: to see that. But there's definitely this period of tension,
Speaker 10: and the question is how far will Saudi Arabia take
Speaker 10: this to push these members to actually conform to what
Speaker 10: they want? And that's the real question. And the Saudi
Speaker 10: Oil minister, he can be someone of a live wire.
Speaker 7: Ellen.
Speaker 2: We always learned something when we talked to Alan Wald.
Speaker 2: Many thanks for joining us today on sound On, senior
Speaker 2: fellow at the Atlantic Council, author of Saudi Inc. Just
Speaker 2: looking at average gas prices going into the holiday here
Speaker 2: at Kaylee three dollars twenty eight cents nationally. A year
Speaker 2: ago we were at three sixty three. At least there's that,
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast.
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