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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us

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Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

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Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on

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Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

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Speaker 2: They've got a deal on hostages. Welcome to the fastest

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Speaker 2: show in politics. As the Biden administration helps to broker

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Speaker 2: in agreement to secure the release of fifty hostages held

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Speaker 2: by Hamas, including Americans, in exchange for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty Palestinians held by Israel. We will talk about details

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Speaker 2: of the plan, walk through what we know, and discuss

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Speaker 2: what it might lead to with Congressman Ami Bera, the

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Speaker 2: Democrat from California, serves on the House Foreign Affairs and

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Speaker 2: Intelligence committees and is with us at the table this

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Speaker 2: day before Thanksgiving, Republicans win a special House election in Utah,

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Speaker 2: and Andrew Cuomo reportedly thinking about a run for mayor

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Speaker 2: of New York City. We'll have analysis and all these

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Speaker 2: stories from our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis

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Speaker 2: and Jeanie Shansey or with us for the hour. So

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Speaker 2: thanks for joining on the radio, on the satellite, and

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Speaker 2: on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Global News. The cameras are lit

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Speaker 2: as we welcome the congressman to the table, Amy Bera

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Speaker 2: of the sixth District of California. It's great to see you, sir,

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Speaker 2: and welcome back to Bloomberg Jo.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for having me on.

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Speaker 2: You're like the only lawmaker left in Washington today, so

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Speaker 2: cheers to you, and thanks for being with us for

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Speaker 2: an important conversation. I know that this is an important

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Speaker 2: matter to you, based on your perch on the Foreign

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Speaker 2: Affairs and Intelligence Committees, and based on your role as

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Speaker 2: a doctor. I don't know if you prefer to be

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Speaker 2: called doctor or congressman. You can tell me that later.

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Speaker 2: You have a unique view as to what's coming here

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Speaker 2: because it reminds us that not only do we have

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Speaker 2: a breakthrough, but there are also two hundred hostages still

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Speaker 2: in Gaza.

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Speaker 4: No absolutely, and being on the Intelligence Committee, we've been

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Speaker 4: getting briefed on a pretty daily basis about the situation

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Speaker 4: October seventh, but post October seventh and then the negotiations

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Speaker 4: with the hostages. Yeah, President Biden, his now security team,

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Speaker 4: his ogn policy.

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Speaker 3: Team have been very much involved in this.

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Speaker 4: And you heard Prime Minister and yeah who talk about

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Speaker 4: calling the president to help get a better deal, and

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Speaker 4: the focus really has been on the safe return of

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Speaker 4: the hostages. So I think this was a breakthrough yesterday.

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Speaker 2: And what do you make of this three to one?

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Speaker 4: You know, I think we always anticipate it would be

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Speaker 4: something like that. You know, it sounds like it's Palestinian

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Speaker 4: women and teenagers in exchange for the first tranch of

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Speaker 4: hostages being a lot of children and women. There's that

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Speaker 4: possibility of you know, continuing the hostage exchange, and you know,

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Speaker 4: I think, yeah, this is a good first step.

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Speaker 2: Well, the hostage exchange comes with the pause, as we're

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Speaker 2: calling it, not a ceasefire, and I know that's deliberate

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Speaker 2: language that we're using. It also allows for three hundred

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Speaker 2: AID trucks a day to be coming in from Egypt.

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Speaker 2: That might be equally as important a component here when

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Speaker 2: you consider the plight right now Ballastinian.

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Speaker 4: Civilians incredibly important, you know, and I do see this

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Speaker 4: as a doctor. You know, you've watched you know, the

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Speaker 4: healthcare professionals, the doctors in Gaza talking about having to

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Speaker 4: operate without anesthesia, hospitals running out of fuel, folks running

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Speaker 4: out of medicine, and just the massive innocent civilian loss.

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Speaker 4: So you know, that's not helping the cause of trying

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Speaker 4: to find peace. It's also in my mind, not making

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Speaker 4: as real more secure. So, you know, can we take

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Speaker 4: advantage of this pause. Can we get needed humanitarian aid, food, water, medicines,

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Speaker 4: fuel into Gaza to the civilians, not to Hamas, And

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Speaker 4: then can we take this temporary pause and maybe make

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Speaker 4: it a little bit more permanent.

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Speaker 2: The message from Benjamin et Yahoo was very clear yesterday

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Speaker 2: not to cease fire. In fact, when this pause is over,

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Speaker 2: we will resume fighting in Gaza to root out Hamas.

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Speaker 2: With that said, there's the potential for a second phase

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Speaker 2: here that could lead to a more lasting cease fire,

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Speaker 2: maybe something we would actually refer to there. Are you

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Speaker 2: concerned about benjaminettya who's posture at a time that could

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Speaker 2: lead to a breakthrough.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think they're going to continue to degrade Hamas.

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Speaker 4: They're going to continue to do what they have to

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Speaker 4: do in order to secure the Israeli people. But is

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Speaker 4: there a different way to prosecute this work? Can you

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Speaker 4: do something a little more surgical, more tactical, minimize the

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Speaker 4: massive innocent civilian lives lost, The destruction. I mean, at

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Speaker 4: the end of the day, the Palestinian people have to

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Speaker 4: live somewhere, and you know, I don't think it's a

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Speaker 4: great idea for Israel to try to occupy Gaza.

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure what that looks like.

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Speaker 4: So can we take this pause, Can we think about

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Speaker 4: what might a two state solution look like?

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Speaker 3: You know, and start that conversation.

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Speaker 2: A two state solution, boy, And it feels far away

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Speaker 2: at the moment. The administration has received a lot of

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Speaker 2: cre from many progressive Democrats about the way that this

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Speaker 2: war is being comported, even though that it is not

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Speaker 2: the US conducting this battle but full throated and support

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Speaker 2: for Israel while thousands of Palestinian civilians die. You can

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Speaker 2: look at this one way or the other. It's very

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Speaker 2: easy to blame Hamas in this case. The Biden administration

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Speaker 2: would tell you that's what we should do, but it

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Speaker 2: creates a political problem for him on the left. What

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Speaker 2: do you hear from your colleagues in the House.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Hamas clearly instigated this war, so that yeah, there's

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Speaker 4: no debate about who started this war, and Israel clearly

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Speaker 4: has the responsibility to protect its civilians and make sure

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Speaker 4: something like October seventh, doesn't happen again. That said, you know,

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Speaker 4: you do see the massive humanitarian crisis taking place, the

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Speaker 4: loss of life. You know, it's heart wrenching to see

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Speaker 4: young children being pulled out of rubble and so forth.

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Speaker 3: So, you know, I think President Biden's.

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Speaker 4: Been very clear in the US focus. Obviously, we will

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Speaker 4: continue to help Israel secure its security. Moving the aircraft

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Speaker 4: carriers into the region, we were making sure this doesn't

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Speaker 4: extend or expand into another front, so that is also

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Speaker 4: clear at our mission. And then you know, the attacks

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Speaker 4: on our troops and others in the region, we have

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Speaker 4: to respond to that as well.

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Speaker 5: Well.

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Speaker 2: What are you hearing on your committees? And I suspect

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Speaker 2: it's both of them at this point, But I imagine

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Speaker 2: that the Intelligence Committee has been quite a wealth of information,

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Speaker 2: most of which you probably cannot share with me right now.

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Speaker 2: But do you think that the presence of these two

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Speaker 2: carrier groups helped to avoid a second front? Would Iran

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Speaker 2: have been involved in this now? If the US hadn't

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Speaker 2: acted the way.

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Speaker 4: To you know, I think moving the assets very quickly

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Speaker 4: has really you know, there's an initial concern about has

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Speaker 4: Well perhaps getting involved here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we haven't really seen that. You know, you've

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Speaker 3: seen missile launches and so forth, but not a full

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Speaker 3: scale involvement.

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Speaker 4: And then you have Iranian proxy groups in Syria, in Iraq,

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Speaker 4: the Huti rebels in Yemen. Again, I think we, along

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Speaker 4: with others, have been doing what we have to do

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Speaker 4: to make sure this doesn't spread, many.

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Speaker 2: Have suggested, and it's not just now, it's part of

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Speaker 2: being the president of the United States. There are things

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Speaker 2: the president knows that we will never imagine. And people

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Speaker 2: question the president's demeanor when he walks into a room.

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Speaker 2: Why does he look tired today? Why does he seem

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Speaker 2: angry with reporters? What kind of information is he hearing

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Speaker 2: when he's briefed in the morning or when he interacts

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Speaker 2: with intelligence officials?

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Speaker 4: Right now, you know, being president of the United States

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Speaker 4: probably is the hardest job in the world.

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Speaker 3: And think about it.

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Speaker 4: There's two real hot conflicts going on in this world.

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Speaker 4: You've got the illegal invasion by Russia of Ukraine. And

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Speaker 4: you know, I met with some Ukrainian civilians and healthcare

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Speaker 4: professionals earlier this week, and you know, they just talk

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Speaker 4: about the atrocities that they're coming across and what's happening,

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Speaker 4: and you know they're about to enter another winner. So

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Speaker 4: that's got a way on the president now, crisis in

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Speaker 4: the Middle East and trying to get the hostages back

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Speaker 4: to diplomacy, all at the same time where last week

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Speaker 4: he was meeting with Shijiping trying to find a path

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Speaker 4: forward to avoid conflict in Asia, so incredibly challenging job.

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Speaker 4: I think the president's been doing a great job.

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Speaker 2: This here why they see. It's not for the faint

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Speaker 2: of heart or not necessarily for an old man. Do

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Speaker 2: you worry about his ability to do that for another

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Speaker 2: four years?

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Speaker 3: You know?

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Speaker 4: I think he's been a great president, and you don't

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Speaker 4: hear people criticizing the job. I equate age with experience,

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Speaker 4: and he's the most experienced president that we've had, and

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Speaker 4: I think the voters should look at his record of achievement.

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Speaker 4: And if you look at that record of achievement, we've

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Speaker 4: got the strongest economy in the world. Unemployment is way down,

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Speaker 4: wages are rising, and then with these conflicts around the world,

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Speaker 4: and as someone on intelligence and foreign policy, I think

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Speaker 4: he's doing a great job keeping a world together.

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Speaker 3: Right now, we're.

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Speaker 2: Spending time with Congressman I'mibera of California. The attention is

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Speaker 2: going to shift from that end of Pennsylvania Avenue back

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Speaker 2: to Congress when you return next week or when your

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Speaker 2: colleagues do you, for the record, are still here at it.

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Speaker 2: You can start negotiating a budget right now. But with

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Speaker 2: that said, it may not come easily. The conversation around

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Speaker 2: Israeli funding. Your new speaker decided to strip that away

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Speaker 2: from Ukraine, Taiwan and the border to bring that to

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Speaker 2: a vote with I realize what you saw as a

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Speaker 2: poison pill with defunding the irs to a point here,

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Speaker 2: it's going to have to take some shape though, and

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Speaker 2: I wonder if you have that vision in your head.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I think we would like to do both

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Speaker 4: Ukraine and Israel supplement altogether. I think you know, you're

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Speaker 4: starting to hear some of my Republican colleagues say, Hey,

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Speaker 4: what you're asking for with regards to Taiwan or the

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Speaker 4: end of Pacific's not enough. My friend Mike Gallagher certainly

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Speaker 4: is asking for more, so.

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Speaker 3: That could be part of this.

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Speaker 4: And then I do think you know it's fair for

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Speaker 4: us to do something on the southern border.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we've got a real challenge there.

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Speaker 4: I do think Republicans may want something different than what

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Speaker 4: we're looking at. But you know, let's negotiate around how

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Speaker 4: we secure our southern border and perhaps put all that

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Speaker 4: together in a security supplemental.

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Speaker 2: Based on what you've seen by this Republican majority, is

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Speaker 2: it possible to get that done at the same time

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Speaker 2: as figure out how to avoid a government shutdown in January?

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Speaker 4: I mean, as we've seen time and time again, the

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Speaker 4: only way to do that is through a bipartisan deal.

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Speaker 4: They need you, well, they need me and folks like

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Speaker 4: me ye are willing to negotiate, compromise and find a

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Speaker 4: middle ground. And you know that's not going to be

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Speaker 4: the extremes on the far right or the extremes on

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Speaker 4: the far left. It'll be a center right, center left coalition.

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Speaker 2: Or do you optimistic that that exists based on what

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Speaker 2: you've seen? The Speaker was at mar A Lago last week,

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Speaker 2: and I understand, yeah, but he doesn't want to be

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Speaker 2: working with you.

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Speaker 4: You know, Speaker Johnson did the right thing by you know,

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Speaker 4: doing a relatively clean cr You know that he got

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Speaker 4: a victory in this two step process again, and I

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Speaker 4: think we were satisfied with it, so you know, at

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Speaker 4: the end of the day, it is going to take

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Speaker 4: by partisanship. And I think he realizes that. I think

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Speaker 4: former Speaker Kevin McCarthy realized that. And you know, it

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Speaker 4: always came down to Democrats and Republicans working together.

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Speaker 2: You talk to Kevin McCarthy, he's your colleague from the

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Speaker 2: California delegation. You see him in the cafeteria line. Now,

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Speaker 2: I mean, what's his life like as a former speaker?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't want to speculate on what Kevin McCarthy's thinking.

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Speaker 4: Hopefully there's no elbow checks in the back or anything

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Speaker 4: like that.

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Speaker 2: Sounds like you haven't gone out for drinks lately. People

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Speaker 2: should know that you were instrumental and I know this

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Speaker 2: is very important to you in helping to settle Afghan refugees.

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Speaker 2: We have a situation now where Israel's neighbors are not

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Speaker 2: opening their doors to Palestinians that have been urged to

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Speaker 2: evacuate for instance. What's the answer to this.

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Speaker 4: You know, I think we're going to continue to put

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Speaker 4: pressure on Egypt. Obviously they've got a shared border with

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Speaker 4: Gaza and the Rafa crossing. You know, I think we

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Speaker 4: will continue to talk to the other Arab nations, and

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Speaker 4: now there's they have to be part of the solution.

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Speaker 4: And again, if you can get a prolonged, positive and

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Speaker 4: potentially a cease fire, any two state solution, any security

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Speaker 4: guarantees are going to involve the other countries in the region.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well you start wondering as well, with the US

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Speaker 2: play a role in housing refugees or is that just

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Speaker 2: too far away to be practical now.

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Speaker 4: I think we've always taken refugees in Sacramento County, which

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Speaker 4: is my home district, has always been a place where,

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Speaker 4: you know, going back to the Vietnam War, you know

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Speaker 4: a lot of Southeast Asian refugees in the Sacramento region,

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Speaker 4: you know, to what we went through a couple of

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Speaker 4: years ago with the Afghan refugees. We've got one of

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Speaker 4: the largest populations and I would say that the refugees

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Speaker 4: really add to.

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Speaker 3: The diversity and what makes Sacramento great.

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Speaker 4: And again, we're a country where we should take our

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Speaker 4: fair share, but obviously work with everyone else.

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Speaker 2: To sit down at the Thanksgiving table tomorrow, and we

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Speaker 2: know that politics will probably be talked about in a

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Speaker 2: few households. There was a poll that I've referred to

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Speaker 2: repeatedly from Quinnipiac this week, six out of ten voters

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Speaker 2: are hoping that politics will not be in the conversation

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Speaker 2: at the dinner table. But it's hard to avoid when

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Speaker 2: issues like inflation are driving politics. The things that we

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Speaker 2: deal with every day, the prices that we pay, and

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Speaker 2: I suspect that's going to be part of what comes

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Speaker 2: up tomorrow. What do you want people to know that

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Speaker 2: they might not be aware of when they say, hey,

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Speaker 2: this costs a lot more than it did in twenty nineteen,

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Speaker 2: or hey, this president's too old to get out of

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Speaker 2: bed in the morning. What would Ami Behra tell them

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Speaker 2: if you was at the other side of the table, I'd.

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Speaker 4: Say, when we give our blessings before we carve into

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Speaker 4: that turkey, let's look at the complexity of world. Let's

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Speaker 4: hope for a better, kinder country and world. And you know,

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Speaker 4: there's much more that binds us together than separates us

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Speaker 4: and the other divisions that sometimes you see in Congress,

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Speaker 4: or divisions you see across the dinner table. If we

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Speaker 4: could actually find some civility, find the ability to look

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Speaker 4: at the world from someone else's eyes, and that's what

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Speaker 4: I'm trying to do. You know, again, when I think

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Speaker 4: about the tragedy in Gaza, I can see it. You know,

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Speaker 4: when I talk to my Palestinian American constituents, the pain

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Speaker 4: and anguish and their voices, it's the same thing when

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Speaker 4: I was talking to families of hostage victims that are

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Speaker 4: praying for their relatives safe return from when they were

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Speaker 4: taken by Amas.

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Speaker 3: They have that same pain and anguish.

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Speaker 4: So if we could learn to see the world from

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Speaker 4: someone else's eyes, you know, we might find a path forward.

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Speaker 2: That's a wonderful answer. And I appreciate your coming to

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Speaker 2: see us today. Happy Thanksgiving to you and your family,

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Speaker 2: even if you have to spend it here in the

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Speaker 2: nation's capital.

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Speaker 3: Happy Thanksgiving. At least I got to deal with my family.

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Speaker 2: Indeed, thank you, Congressman. That's really all we can ask for,

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Speaker 2: isn't it. Our best to your family and cheers. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for joining us. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. This

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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg Sound On as we assemble our panel for

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Speaker 2: a quick swing at some of the issues we were

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Speaker 2: talking about with the Congressman. We'll have a lot more

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Speaker 2: time as well with Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano here

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Speaker 2: they are primed for Turkey and some pretty good news today, Jeanie.

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Speaker 2: In a hostage agreement that we talked about yesterday, it

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Speaker 2: seems to have largely taken the form of what we expected.

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Speaker 2: Is this a win for Joe Biden?

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Speaker 6: You know, I do think it is. We even heard

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Speaker 6: from Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday who said he was given the

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Speaker 6: deal that cutter in the United States had broken, and

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Speaker 6: he didn't like parts of it. He went to Biden,

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Speaker 6: they were able to rectify it, and he personally thanked

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Speaker 6: Joe Biden. So I do think it is. But I

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Speaker 6: think very very smartly, the administration cannot and should not

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Speaker 6: take a victory lap on anything here. These are fifty

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Speaker 6: of more than two hundred hostages. There is so much

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Speaker 6: more work to be done, and I think Jake Sullivan

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Speaker 6: on the Morning Show is said the same. So I

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Speaker 6: think tone is absolutely appropriate, and they do deserve kudos

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Speaker 6: for this work they've done in a really, really awful situation.

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Speaker 2: Well, this is a good point, Genie, and you're not

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Speaker 2: the first to suggest that this isn't time to be

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Speaker 2: taken victory laps or celebrating here, Rick, Obviously, this is

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Speaker 2: very good news for fifty families, some of them American,

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Speaker 2: but the Genie's point, there are two hundred others. Does

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Speaker 2: this actually help to potentially unlock another deal?

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Speaker 7: Sure? I think that the Katari foreign minister said just

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Speaker 7: that that you know, this isn't you know the game done?

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Speaker 7: This is the game begins, and that game is if

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Speaker 7: you can entice these terrorists into releasing hostages for you know,

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Speaker 7: certain kinds of terms like ceasefires, then maybe you just

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Speaker 7: keep tacking on and you know, the terms of this

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Speaker 7: are you get another day of a ceasefire if you

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Speaker 7: give us ten more hostages. The hope would be that

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Speaker 7: you could get all these hostages released by year end,

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Speaker 7: and there's some indications from Palestinian officials that that could

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Speaker 7: be the potential outcome. So crush fingers, keep your you know,

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Speaker 7: keep your hold your breath. But it does theme that

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Speaker 7: we're headed in the right direction when it comes to

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Speaker 7: a flow of hostages coming out of Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Rick makes a great point. Israel says it will

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Speaker 2: extend the pause for every additional ten hostages. So this

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Speaker 2: could take on a lot of different forms here in

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Speaker 2: the coming days, that we're going to have a deeper

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Speaker 2: dive with Rick and Jeanie on this important development here

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Speaker 2: on the day before Thanksgiving. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington.

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Speaker 2: I'm glad you joined us on sound on This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the

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Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the

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Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: Israel is calling it a pause, Hamas calls it a truce.

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Speaker 2: Whatever you want to call it. The White House wants

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Speaker 2: you to know that President Biden was deeply involved. Jake

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Speaker 2: Sullivan speaking about the hostage deal the hostage released deal

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Speaker 2: announced today, speaking on ABC's Good Morning America about the

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Speaker 2: role that the President of the United States played in

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Speaker 2: achieving their freedom.

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Speaker 8: The key honestly was bearing down on both sides, working

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Speaker 8: the United States closely with Cutter and with the government

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Speaker 8: of Egypt to get both sides to essentially get specific

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Speaker 8: and the big move happened late last week when President

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Speaker 8: Biden spoke first with Prime Minister net Yahoo and then

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Speaker 8: with the amiror Cutter to say how many hostages for

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Speaker 8: how many days in return for how many Palestinian prisoners.

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Speaker 8: And it was really the work to refine those details

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Speaker 8: that finally produce the breakthrough that we now see resulting

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Speaker 8: in the announcement of appause in hostilities and the first

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Speaker 8: return to prisoners of hostages.

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Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Genie Shanzeno are signature panel back together

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Speaker 2: for their thoughts on this deal now that it has emerged.

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Speaker 2: We should note, by the way, the President is not

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Speaker 2: in town. He is on Nanta bucket celebrating Thanksgiving with

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Speaker 2: the family. And this deal came together late yesterday. We

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Speaker 2: were waiting for it. I'm sure he thought it might

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Speaker 2: emerge before he left the city. But no big announcement here,

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Speaker 2: no Rose Garden announcement coming from the White House, despite

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Speaker 2: the fact that the administration was clearly deeply involved in this. Genie,

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Speaker 2: you made the point before, it's not time to be

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Speaker 2: celebrating or taking victory laps with two hundred more hostages

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Speaker 2: in Gaza. But this administration clearly wants people to know

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Speaker 2: that Joe Biden was on the phone helping him make

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Speaker 2: this happen.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, they do, and with good reason. I think it's

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Speaker 6: another case of Joe Biden, you know, being very good

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Speaker 6: and delivering. Again. We have to be cautious here because

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Speaker 6: they haven't been delivered yet, but delivering on a promise

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Speaker 6: to try to strike a deal. But it's not something

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Speaker 6: that's visible to most Americans. And so you know, to

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Speaker 6: hear Jake Sullivan today out in the morning shows you

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Speaker 6: just played Netflick, he's absolutely right to make the case.

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Speaker 6: You know, this is I think the scope and the

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Speaker 6: scale of what if this comes through, they have achieved,

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Speaker 6: if they get these fifty children and women out, is

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Speaker 6: quite remarkable. We've never seen anything like it. And you know,

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Speaker 6: it's just chilling when you think about the specifics here.

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Speaker 6: Israel has released some information that are being given to

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Speaker 6: Israeli soldiers who are going to be potentially greeting the

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Speaker 6: children when they come out, sort of a script of

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Speaker 6: what to do and what not to do. It is utterly,

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Speaker 6: utterly frightening to read and to think about what these

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Speaker 6: people have gone through and the fact that we may

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Speaker 6: see three Americans come out, and we don't know yet,

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Speaker 6: but that then there are about two hundred remaining. The

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Speaker 6: scope and the scale is astonishing, and you know, President

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Speaker 6: of Biden deserves kudos if this work. But again there's

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Speaker 6: a lot more work to be done. And watch for

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Speaker 6: a divide between the US and Israel continuing to get

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Speaker 6: to be exacerbated because all three of the statements we

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Speaker 6: saw from the White House ended focusing on the release

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Speaker 6: of hostages versus Israel and net and Yahoo. They are

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Speaker 6: going back to their primary goal of destroying Hamas. Many

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Speaker 6: people feel those two goals are in conflict and the

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Speaker 6: resolution to those is really difficult to parse your way

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Speaker 6: out of.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well that's one way of looking at it, Rick,

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Speaker 2: Some folks think that they're not in conflict and in

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Speaker 2: fact are reliant upon each other. How do you look

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Speaker 2: at it?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Look, I mean presidencies for as long back as

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Speaker 7: we can remember have suffered under expectations and disappointments in

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Speaker 7: the Middle East. You know, whether it's all at war

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Speaker 7: like what we have now, or failed peace initiatives. You know,

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Speaker 7: it's actually part of the methodology you see the Biden

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Speaker 7: White House using. Try to take some credit, but don't

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Speaker 7: expect to get out too far because your heart's going

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Speaker 7: to get broken at some point along the way here,

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Speaker 7: and you know, you just got to protect the presidency

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Speaker 7: from looking like it's taking credit from something that actually

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Speaker 7: turns into another bad thing. So there's so much that

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Speaker 7: can go wrong, not just with this initial release of hostages,

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Speaker 7: but with ultimately the war that is going on now

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Speaker 7: and how long it'll lasts and what it'll looked like

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Speaker 7: five years from now. And and so the good news

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Speaker 7: for the Biden White House is that it's not likely

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Speaker 7: to be a major issue in the general election. I mean,

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Speaker 7: they'd like to get out from underneath some of the

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Speaker 7: negatives that have happened some of the protest movements in

438
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Speaker 7: the United States. And so you see, you know, very

439
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 7: careful orchestrations, which is why, by the way, you wouldn't

440
00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 7: see a rose garden or a presidential speech, because the

441
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 7: last thing that they want to do is putting too

442
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 7: far out in front of something that could wind up

443
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:54,199
Speaker 7: being a disaster. So the foreign policy, you know, brief

444
00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 7: and national politics though, is pretty minimal. He doesn't have

445
00:22:57,760 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 7: to prove to anybody that he can be commander in chief.

446
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 7: He's been at and so really I think the White

447
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,399
Speaker 7: House is probably sit around, you know, by the time

448
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 7: the first hostages here released tomorrow, starting to think about

449
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 7: how they can start talking about the economy again.

450
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 6: Hmm.

451
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 2: Interesting. I thought maybe we'd see a statement or something

452
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 2: from Joe Biden on Nantucket, Genie. You know, you pull

453
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:23,640
Speaker 2: out the pipe and drape they can always go live

454
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 2: from there. Maybe a message to Americans on Thanksgiving Eve

455
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 2: that they're making progress in the Middle East. Does that

456
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 2: not happen?

457
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 6: You know, I think we may. I think they are

458
00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 6: very worried and rightly so about getting ahead of their skis,

459
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 6: So I think they may wait until we see an

460
00:23:38,640 --> 00:23:42,560
Speaker 6: actual release, which which would make sense. But you know,

461
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 6: on the point that you were and Grick were just

462
00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 6: talking about other things to watch for. You know, we

463
00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 6: are hearing about a real connection continuing between Iran and Russia.

464
00:23:53,920 --> 00:23:58,720
Speaker 6: Russia potentially giving hes Blood air defense missiles, Iran giving

465
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 6: Russia some type of munitions, some type of missiles to

466
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,400
Speaker 6: use over Ukraine. Those are the kinds of things that

467
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:10,159
Speaker 6: can really blow up, to use a horrible expression in

468
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 6: the administration's face as we face a real, real challenge

469
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,119
Speaker 6: containing this in the Middle East, and so it's really

470
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 6: important to watch out for that. We even heard Jijin

471
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:24,040
Speaker 6: Ping talking about this at Bricks yesterday. So, you know,

472
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 6: in their virtual meeting and calling for a two state

473
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 6: solution and putin responding, so so much international pressure and

474
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 6: so much international foreign policy issues riding on this. It

475
00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 6: can really blow up in a number of different ways

476
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,280
Speaker 6: that the administration can't foreseek. So they got to be

477
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,359
Speaker 6: very careful about what they say publicly.

478
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:48,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. I asked Congressman Barah about the funding

479
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,800
Speaker 2: for Israel not to mention Ukraine and the others that

480
00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 2: are in the supplemental budget request from the White House. Rick,

481
00:24:55,640 --> 00:25:00,200
Speaker 2: And it does look like Republicans have at least let

482
00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: a little bit more asurety in their majority. Celeste molloy

483
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 2: won this special election in Utah to fill the seat

484
00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: of former Congressman Chris Stewart, so it stays Republican. And

485
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 2: knowing that George Santos may be losing his seat imminently,

486
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: does this help Speaker Johnson plan around the looming budget

487
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,399
Speaker 2: debate or is it just a wash the way you

488
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 2: look at it?

489
00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 7: No, I think it's I mean, obviously every little bit

490
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,200
Speaker 7: is important here in a very closely divided Congress, and

491
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,159
Speaker 7: he's been without one extra vote, so you know, the

492
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:40,919
Speaker 7: margins have been super slim. You know, just three people

493
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 7: would make a difference in getting something past or having

494
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 7: it fail. So one vote matters, and you can't guarantee

495
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 7: that Santos will be expelled. I mean, it really sounds

496
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 7: like there's an attitude right now that they really don't

497
00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 7: care anymore to lose that vote. And he's he's been

498
00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 7: such an egregious abuser of the law that he needs

499
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 7: to go. But I'm not going to hold my breath

500
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 7: on that. I mean, Congress has has has has not

501
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 7: really distinguished itself this year as being, you know, uh,

502
00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 7: a object of profile and courage. So yeah, I mean, look,

503
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 7: it's it's pretty clear though. I mean, let's just be clear.

504
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 7: Nothing's going to pass this Congress without a bipartisan Democrat

505
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 7: and Republican coalition to push legislation through, just like they

506
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:34,119
Speaker 7: just did on the cr and they did before on

507
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 7: the debt limit.

508
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 2: Uh.

509
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 7: Conservative Mavericks, Freedom Caucus, the MAGA extremists, whatever you want

510
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:41,960
Speaker 7: to call him, They're going to hold this place up.

511
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 7: They don't care if Washington burns, they don't care if

512
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,320
Speaker 7: people miss their paychecks. They are trying to create you know,

513
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 7: all kinds of disruption within the federal government. Uh, they

514
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:55,879
Speaker 7: just assume not fund the Justice Department, the military, the

515
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 7: the the FBI. So you know, you're you're in a

516
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,720
Speaker 7: You're in a cycle. And hopeful Speaker Johnson recognizes it

517
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 7: that without bipartisan cooperation, people like the congressman you just interviewed,

518
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 7: who are prepared to go to work and get things

519
00:27:10,080 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 7: done with Republicans and Democrats alike. You know, unless you

520
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:15,439
Speaker 7: have that, you're not going to get anything done.

521
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,880
Speaker 2: There you have it from Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzana,

522
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 2: our signature panel, and I hope you know how thankful

523
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,160
Speaker 2: I am and we are for you your insights, your friendship

524
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 2: and companionship here on sound On. Cheers to you both,

525
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,960
Speaker 2: and have a great holiday. Kayley's on the way in next. Hour.

526
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,119
Speaker 2: Two of sound On starts right now.

527
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us

528
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

529
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on

530
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts.

531
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe

532
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 2: Matthew in Washington, where there is another Kaylee Lines is

533
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,400
Speaker 2: here as well. Nice to see you. Actually, I shouldn't

534
00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:03,399
Speaker 2: say that. Congressman Ambi Berra was with us in studio

535
00:28:03,480 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 2: last hour. I think he is actually the only lawmaker

536
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 2: maybe in Washington today. The President is gone. He's on Nantucket.

537
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: By the way. I don't know if we need to

538
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 2: have a little instructional thing about that. I keep reading

539
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: that he's in Nantucket. You can't be in an island, right.

540
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 2: That's how when we're in New England, we say you're

541
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: on Nantucket, you're on.

542
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 9: The Vineyard, but you're not on Manhattan.

543
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 2: No, And that's New York's own problem. I feel like,

544
00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 2: you're not in Survivor Island. You're on Survivor Island. Interesting,

545
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: And we actually do that for things up there other

546
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 2: than islands. You see, you're on the Cape, You're not

547
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 2: in Cape Cod, you're on Cape cut Interesting. It's just

548
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: been bothering me. It clearly is. I'm sure it's grammatically incorrect,

549
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 2: but I'm sticking with it. The President on Nantucket. He

550
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 2: does this every year. It's a Nantucket thing. And I'm

551
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 2: not sure if that has anything to do with just

552
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 2: getting away from it all. But I'll tell you what.

553
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 2: There's nothing happening on Nantucket right now.

554
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, well, there's not much happening here in DC either.

555
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 9: I think pretty much every lawmaker is soaking up all

556
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 9: of the family holiday time that they're getting, soaking up

557
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 9: their thankfulness because they're probably just filled with dread at

558
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:12,479
Speaker 9: the prospect of returning to DC and dealing with all

559
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 9: of the business they have to deal.

560
00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: With's on the other side of the stay lines. So

561
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 2: some would not blame them for that. I guess. Yeah,

562
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 2: they're going to hear from constituents. They're going to second

563
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 2: guess this whole speaker thing. God knows what else will

564
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: come out of the wash by the time they're back.

565
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 2: We're going to talk about that and the latest on

566
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: the campaign trail coming up with our friend Terry Haynes

567
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 2: from Pangaea Policy. We're totally pulling him off of his

568
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 2: time off as well. I think we're very kind to

569
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,959
Speaker 2: joy it to bring us direction. And we've got an

570
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 2: eye on what's happening on Niagara Falls. This popped up

571
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 2: last hour, Kayley, and it looks like we have a

572
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: new headline from Fox. This appears to have been a

573
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 2: fatal event at the bridge, the Rainbow Bridge that connects

574
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:53,120
Speaker 2: Canada and the US.

575
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 9: Yeah, just about a mile from Niagara Falls. Of course,

576
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 9: we already had understood that there was a vehicle explosion

577
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 9: that the FBI was invest gating, and now according to Fox,

578
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 9: that explosion was an attempted terrorist attack. There are two

579
00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,080
Speaker 9: dead wow, in that car explosion. Again, this is according

580
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 9: to Fox. Our is a lot we still don't know here,

581
00:30:11,880 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 9: and we know that New York Governor Kathy Hochel is

582
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 9: en route in this direction right now. As you're seeing

583
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 9: the border crossings all throughout this area, a number of

584
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:21,960
Speaker 9: them closed at the moment.

585
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 2: This is incredible stuff and it's developing very quickly here

586
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 2: before our eyes. Governor Kathy Hochel on her way to

587
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: the border, apparently to Niagara Falls, will of course bring

588
00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 2: you comments from her if we get them. But this

589
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 2: literally just happened less than an hour ago, So this

590
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: is going to take some time here. But to see

591
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,960
Speaker 2: that headline from Fox an attempted terror attack, I'd like

592
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 2: to see the attribution and know more about it. We're

593
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 2: obviously letting you know what we know as we learn it,

594
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: and you're seeing these headlines cross the Terminal and Bloomberg

595
00:30:51,360 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 2: dot Com all the while. We should bring Terry in.

596
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 2: Terry Haines, of course, the founder of Pangaea Policy and

597
00:30:57,520 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: a regular voice here at Bloomberg Us now on sound On.

598
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 2: It's great to see it, Terry. Thank you for giving

599
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: us a little bit of time. I had a lot

600
00:31:05,400 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: of questions for you about what's happening in Iowa here

601
00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,239
Speaker 2: and on the campaign trail. But I'll tell you what,

602
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 2: it's hard to ignore this story at Niagara Falls. When

603
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 2: you see a headline like that, it does seem to

604
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 2: bring credibility to what Christopher Ray, the head of the FBI,

605
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: has been telling lawmakers that domestic terror threats are near

606
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 2: an all time high right now.

607
00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 5: Well, absolutely, and thank you for having me. You know,

608
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:36,640
Speaker 5: one way I think about this is I wrote a

609
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 5: note for clients almost exactly ten years ago laying out

610
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 5: where the parties were on immigration, on border security, and

611
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 5: what was likely or more likely or what was likely

612
00:31:51,280 --> 00:31:54,960
Speaker 5: not to happen. Really, I could exhume that note and

613
00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 5: the parties would pretty much be in exactly the same place.

614
00:31:58,320 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 5: But the ice is finally starting to crack in Washington

615
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 5: a little bit on this, and it'd be too soon

616
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 5: to say, you know, to expect action, but this is

617
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,760
Speaker 5: the kind of event that will spur people into action.

618
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 5: What you've heard in the last couple of weeks in Washington,

619
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 5: I think has been fascinating if you're interested in border

620
00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 5: of security. Not only is border security funding policy changes

621
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 5: part of the part of the discussion around an integral

622
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 5: part of the discussion around Ukraine AID and Israel AID.

623
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 5: But you've got people across the political spectrum that are

624
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,720
Speaker 5: saying that things that actually have to change. Peter Welch

625
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 5: of Vermont, I mean, somebody I've known for a very

626
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 5: very long time, very good guy. You know, Peter put

627
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 5: the P and progressive pretty much. And Peter's been saying

628
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 5: publicly over the past couple of weeks that something needs

629
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 5: to change. We actually need to do something here substantively.

630
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 5: And if you've got thoughtful people like Peter Welch saying that,

631
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 5: you know, and you have an event like this that's

632
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 5: just happened, you know, the stars are starting to align

633
00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 5: for some sort of action here.

634
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 9: I think, Well, change is one thing to hope for,

635
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,680
Speaker 9: and it's easy to talk about, but as we often

636
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 9: learn and have seen born out time and again, change

637
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,480
Speaker 9: is much harder to actually implement terry. Even if something

638
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 9: like this happening at the northern border, when a lot

639
00:33:21,240 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 9: of attention has been paid to the southern border, does

640
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 9: provide a bit more impetus, it still becomes a matter

641
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,880
Speaker 9: of trying to get everyone aligned and how long realistically

642
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 9: that takes. You mentioned how the border security issue is

643
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 9: becoming very tied to the issue of providing funding for

644
00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 9: other country securities Ukraine and Israel funding especially. Do you

645
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 9: think realistically this is something that can be achieved in

646
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 9: twenty twenty three or is this a new year issue.

647
00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 5: I've got it as seventy five percent that something happens

648
00:33:50,520 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 5: on this the something being Ukraine aid, Israel AID border

649
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 5: security by the end of twenty twenty three. That's you know,

650
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,840
Speaker 5: that's a little more than a twenty twenty five percent.

651
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 5: There is a little more than a trailing risk that

652
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 5: something doesn't happen. But the way that this has been

653
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 5: set up, and I know it was set up first

654
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 5: by the President and Republicans in Congress have really taken

655
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 5: it by the horns. You know, something on border security

656
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 5: substantively as well as unfunding, has to happen otherwise you're

657
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 5: not going to get Israeli or Ukraine ate. So now

658
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 5: we've got a real forcing event here. So once everybody

659
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 5: comes back next week, I would look for the next

660
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 5: four weeks to be chok full of that debate with

661
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:38,200
Speaker 5: an eye towards getting something meaningful done.

662
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 2: I don't know what your thought is on this, but

663
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 2: it's clearly going to bring up a conversation about border

664
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:48,160
Speaker 2: security to the north and the south. Terry Vivek Ramaswami

665
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 2: is in fact calling for the US to build a

666
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:56,800
Speaker 2: US Canada border wall, not unlike the Trump border wall

667
00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 2: on our southern border. Is that a serious idea or not?

668
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 5: That's profoundly and unserious. That is a I read that

669
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:10,959
Speaker 5: as as an attempt for mister Ramaswami to reach out

670
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 5: to twenty sixteen and twenty twenty Trump voters and pretty

671
00:35:14,840 --> 00:35:18,440
Speaker 5: much nothing else. And Ramaswami is not a dumb guy.

672
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 5: He knows that's an infeasible idea.

673
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 2: That's my kind of response. Kay, imagine floating an idea

674
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 2: and having Terry Hayes call it profoundly unserious.

675
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 9: You know, it reminds me of the Logan roy in

676
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,799
Speaker 9: Succession thing where he says he loves his children, but

677
00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 9: they are not serious people. You just kind of gave

678
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 9: me that vibe, Terry. Just now, of course, the vag

679
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 9: Ramaswami is still vying for the Republican nomination, as are

680
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 9: a number of other candidates. It doesn't seem though, at

681
00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 9: least at this time, that he is one of the

682
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 9: one runs in running for the silver medal. This is

683
00:35:47,640 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 9: a race for second place, as we know, with Donald

684
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 9: Trump still out front, but Ron DeSantis, who is one

685
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 9: of the two, the other being Nikki Haley, trying to

686
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 9: get that second split second place spot.

687
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:00,200
Speaker 6: We're almost there.

688
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 9: Uh did get a key endorsement in Iowa, and this

689
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 9: is not the first that he's gotten. Kim Reynolds also

690
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 9: had endorsed him previously. Now an endorsement from a highly

691
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 9: influential evangelical. Do you think that gets him that number

692
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 9: two spot in Iowa? Terry? How consequential is this?

693
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 5: Well? I think it is consequential, Kaylee. Uh, it's certainly

694
00:36:20,239 --> 00:36:23,560
Speaker 5: gonna The star is certainly aligned well for mister DeSantis

695
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 5: right now, Let's put it that way.

696
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 9: Uh.

697
00:36:25,920 --> 00:36:27,280
Speaker 5: You know, I have a little bit of a different

698
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 5: take on the race. And uh, it's and let me

699
00:36:30,680 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 5: start by saying it's awfully fluid, Uh Iowa. Iowa's caucussers

700
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 5: are not going to focus with real intent until after

701
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 5: the first of the year. I mean, we're talking about

702
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 5: an event that's really going to happen almost two months

703
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 5: from now, so not an inconsiderable period of time, and

704
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,640
Speaker 5: the holidays go by and all the rest.

705
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:52,440
Speaker 6: Uh.

706
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 5: But I would urge people to look at it this way.

707
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:56,880
Speaker 4: Uh.

708
00:36:57,239 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 5: The the Trump national numbers mean nothing. National beauty contests

709
00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 5: are never relevant in presidential elections because the president is

710
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 5: never is never picked that way because we all know

711
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 5: very well this has to do with electoral college and

712
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:18,240
Speaker 5: not popular vote. So there's that Trump's numbers in Iowa

713
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 5: New Hampshire are more than ten points less than the

714
00:37:20,800 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 5: national beauty contest numbers. We see a trend, we see

715
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 5: true trends, one where the race is consolidating over the

716
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 5: past three months. And I think it's really down to

717
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 5: the Trump alternative is really down to DeSantis or Hailey

718
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:41,240
Speaker 5: and in no particular order right now. But in Iowa,

719
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,600
Speaker 5: you know, DeSantis has has put his entire campaign on

720
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 5: winning in Iowa, and now he's gotten the endorsements of

721
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 5: Governor Reynolds and now of mister van der Platts of

722
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:59,560
Speaker 5: the Family Organization, which are sub which are serious endorsements, substantive.

723
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 5: They equate to boots on the ground. As vander Platz

724
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 5: himself said, I'm paraphrasing, but said last night, I mean,

725
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:09,920
Speaker 5: you know, these are the kind of endorsements that equate to,

726
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,320
Speaker 5: you know, people actually working for the nomination, you know,

727
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 5: not just not just standstill kind of endorsements. So you know,

728
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,440
Speaker 5: I think DeSantis has got some momentum here. I would

729
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 5: look for the narrative in the in the national media

730
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,439
Speaker 5: to start in the next month or so to start

731
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 5: wondering whether Trump is now underperforming, because it doesn't take

732
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 5: much to look at or see a world where in

733
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:42,879
Speaker 5: Iowa Trump comes off a mid forties and comes down

734
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:47,360
Speaker 5: into the thirties. Once folks second choices, whether that be

735
00:38:47,480 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 5: DeSantis or Haley start kicking in, and then people are

736
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 5: going to start to say, well, this is a horse race.

737
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 5: This is a two person, three person horse race. We

738
00:38:55,280 --> 00:38:57,239
Speaker 5: have a month going into New Hampshire and we've got

739
00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:01,080
Speaker 5: Christy's still trying to push there because he's got the

740
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 5: same sort of strategy as the Santas does. So, you know,

741
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 5: I think there's actually a lot of life in this

742
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 5: in this nomination process yet, and we should all watch

743
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:15,359
Speaker 5: for that over the next month to month and a quarter,

744
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,439
Speaker 5: you know, past the first of the year, when things

745
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 5: were really going to start either shifting towards the challengers

746
00:39:23,640 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 5: to Santas or Haley, or alternatively they run out of

747
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 5: steam and then it really does start to look like

748
00:39:29,760 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 5: a Trump nomination.

749
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 2: Vander Platts has backed the Iowa Republican winner in the

750
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 2: last three contested Iowa caucuses. We've talked last hour about

751
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: how that worked for John McCain in two thousand and eight.

752
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 2: Rick Davis certainly remembers it. Could we be in a

753
00:39:44,800 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 2: world terry then, in which Ron DeSantis wins Iowa and

754
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: Nicky Haley wins New Hampshire.

755
00:39:50,360 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 5: What happens then, Well, then you're going to have a

756
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 5: situation where you have two viable challengers, you know, no

757
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 5: more consolidation yet, and you're going to run into the

758
00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 5: You're going to run into this kind of the Super

759
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:09,160
Speaker 5: Tuesday block of states where it's going to start to

760
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 5: look like either Trump is going to either Trump is

761
00:40:13,120 --> 00:40:15,560
Speaker 5: going to consolidate a vote or the challengers are going

762
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,400
Speaker 5: to start to consolidate a vote, and either way it

763
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 5: looks like it's either done on the one hand or

764
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 5: on the other hand. It's a real life horse race.

765
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 5: So and we're still, you know, two and a half

766
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 5: months out from that, so a lot of time left

767
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 5: in this race.

768
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:37,520
Speaker 9: Two and a half months feels like a long time,

769
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 9: but I think we all know that fly Yeah, and

770
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 9: it might Terry, it might also be barely enough time

771
00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:48,880
Speaker 9: to pass a budget because we're talking Iowa here, and

772
00:40:48,960 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 9: at the same time potentially a government shutdown.

773
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:53,319
Speaker 1: Yeah.

774
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 5: Well, you know, it's we're getting to the point of

775
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 5: perfection now where there's just going to be like rolling

776
00:40:58,600 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 5: continuing resolutions, temporary funding for all years, you know, and

777
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 5: we're not really that far off. Yeah, we're really not

778
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 5: that far off from that. But what we're going to

779
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 5: have in terms of government funding is a world where

780
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:20,040
Speaker 5: in mid January, the Republican purists in the House are

781
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 5: going to have to have to figure out whether they're

782
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 5: going to throw another fit or if they're of the

783
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 5: kind that toppled Speaker McCarthy yet something of what they

784
00:41:31,640 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 5: want or not. But either way, what listeners should understand

785
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:40,000
Speaker 5: and viewers should understand is that, you know, this is

786
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 5: all very demonstrative performative on both sides. You know, one

787
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:47,239
Speaker 5: side wants to talk about DRACONI and cuts, the other

788
00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 5: one the other ones wants to talk about the idea

789
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:54,400
Speaker 5: that they're starting to make them that's really one percent

790
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:56,840
Speaker 5: out of thirty percent of the overall spending of the

791
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,360
Speaker 5: federal government. So that will roll us back to the

792
00:42:01,239 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 5: dark days of fiscal twenty two. So you know, in reality,

793
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 5: we're arguing about almost nothing but yet.

794
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 9: Very small.

795
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: But please the whole thing down. Hey, Terry, thanks for joining.

796
00:42:14,200 --> 00:42:17,320
Speaker 2: We're very thankful for your contributions and your friendship and

797
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 2: your smart analysis. We hope you have a great holiday.

798
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 2: Terry Haynes at Pangaea. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to

799
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sound on podcast.

800
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:33,200
Speaker 1: Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

801
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 1: the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg

802
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 1: Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa

803
00:42:39,560 --> 00:42:42,919
Speaker 1: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play

804
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:44,360
Speaker 1: Bloomberg eleven thirty.

805
00:42:46,480 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: One of the other.

806
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 2: Stories we're following brings us overseas and of course, to

807
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 2: the price of oil. Here we were gearing up for

808
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 2: big OPEC meeting this weekend. It has been scheduled.

809
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,919
Speaker 9: It has been postponed to November thirtieth, and this racal

810
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 9: lot of questions and frankly a lot of fear in

811
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,359
Speaker 9: the market right now. Because this is a cartel, they

812
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 9: have to make joint decisions on what their production is

813
00:43:06,680 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 9: going to be like that directly affects the oil price,

814
00:43:09,000 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 9: and the delay of the meeting suggests that they're having

815
00:43:11,680 --> 00:43:14,800
Speaker 9: a little bit of difficulty deciding what that production should

816
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:18,040
Speaker 9: look like and if they can't keep an agreement together.

817
00:43:18,120 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 9: We've seen this happen in years past where it has

818
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 9: dramatic implications for oil markets. So we want to get

819
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 9: a little bit more insight into this. Joining us now

820
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 9: as ellen Wald, she is a senior fellow at the

821
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 9: Atlantic Council, also the author of Saudi Inc. Ellen, thank

822
00:43:30,719 --> 00:43:32,880
Speaker 9: you so much for joining us. Of course, Saudi Arabia

823
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:35,520
Speaker 9: plays a really critical role in this. They have been

824
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,320
Speaker 9: shouldering a lot of the burden of production cuts to

825
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 9: this point, and I just wonder if the signals to

826
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 9: you that the Saudis are less willing to go it

827
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 9: alone now that they want everybody to be moving together,

828
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:48,680
Speaker 9: and not everybody is willing exactly.

829
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 10: And the Saudis have definitely and at times this is

830
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,800
Speaker 10: not the only time that they have extended their goodwill

831
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:59,240
Speaker 10: and made extra production cuts outside of what they're technically

832
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 10: obligated to do under the OPAQ and OPEQ plus agreements

833
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 10: and so, but these are not indefinite. The Saudis are

834
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 10: not going to keep a million barrels a day off

835
00:44:08,400 --> 00:44:11,360
Speaker 10: of the market forever, and they're certainly not going to

836
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 10: do it if other members aren't fulfilling or living up

837
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 10: to their parts of the deal. And the way that

838
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 10: OPEK plus production agreements are structured essentially that every country

839
00:44:23,800 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 10: has a baseline production and then whether they are decreasing

840
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 10: or increasing production comes at a proportion of that. So

841
00:44:31,800 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 10: every country involved is going to cut, say five percent

842
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,799
Speaker 10: from their baseline, or they're going to increase by three

843
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,920
Speaker 10: percent from their baseline, and that's how that's how they

844
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:45,280
Speaker 10: maintain this kind of fairness. And so what we're seeing

845
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,600
Speaker 10: or what we think the issues are right now is

846
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,399
Speaker 10: that the baselines have changed. Some countries are not able

847
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 10: to actually produce as much as they were, you know,

848
00:44:54,719 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 10: in twenty sixteen when these baselines were created, and other

849
00:44:57,680 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 10: countries have invested and expanded the production capacity and so

850
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,480
Speaker 10: they'd like higher baselines.

851
00:45:03,600 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 7: And back in.

852
00:45:04,360 --> 00:45:07,480
Speaker 10: June, a whole bunch of African countries were told that

853
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 10: their baselines were going to decrease unless they could prove

854
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 10: that they could actually produce more by November. And now

855
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,560
Speaker 10: it's November, and a lot of these countries are very

856
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 10: upset because if their baseline decreases, it means that they're

857
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 10: going to have to cut production because they're supposed to

858
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 10: cut a certain percentage of the baseline, and this is

859
00:45:26,640 --> 00:45:29,400
Speaker 10: very distressing to them, and so I think this is

860
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:32,240
Speaker 10: one of the main reasons why the meeting is delayed.

861
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:36,840
Speaker 2: So Ellen, could we be in a world than in

862
00:45:36,920 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 2: which some of these disagreements lead some members to consider

863
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 2: leaving OPEK.

864
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 10: That's entirely possible, and I think that that is probably preferable,

865
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 10: at least for the kind of core membership. That's a

866
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:55,920
Speaker 10: preferable alternative to say, not having any agreement or to

867
00:45:56,520 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 10: capitulating in some respects. And this has happened before in

868
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 10: twenty sixteen when they reached the overall Declaration of Cooperation,

869
00:46:04,560 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 10: where they all agreed to cut. Indonesia left the group

870
00:46:07,520 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 10: because it said we can't afford to cut at all,

871
00:46:10,920 --> 00:46:13,919
Speaker 10: so they essentially just left the group. Since then, Cutter

872
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 10: has left the group, so it's not unheard of.

873
00:46:16,440 --> 00:46:17,480
Speaker 3: It would be I.

874
00:46:17,520 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 10: Think, very difficult if a large number of African producers

875
00:46:21,320 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 10: left because recently a lot of these members have joined.

876
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 10: They are representing a big, an important source of production

877
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 10: for the future, and so I think OPEC would really

878
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 10: like to do what they can to keep these members

879
00:46:35,320 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 10: in the group because for the future that's very important

880
00:46:39,600 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 10: to them, and to keep these members in because the

881
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 10: more production that happens outside of OPEC, the less control

882
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 10: and influence OPEK can have over the market supply.

883
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,320
Speaker 9: Okay, so let's talk about those prices.

884
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 6: Ellen.

885
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:56,360
Speaker 9: What price is it that you think Saudi Arabia, for example,

886
00:46:56,400 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 9: would like to see and what price range could we

887
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 9: see if there is no agreement on production potentially and

888
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 9: everybody decides to pump a lot, or if there is

889
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:08,879
Speaker 9: and they decide to constrain supply even more. For those

890
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 9: in Washington very much concerned with the price at the pump,

891
00:47:12,440 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 9: what's the risk here? How asymmetric is it?

892
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: So I don't think that.

893
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:19,719
Speaker 10: I think there's a very low risk that prices are

894
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,839
Speaker 10: going to go high. We're in a period now where

895
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 10: prices generally trends lower. We're looking at issues in terms

896
00:47:26,840 --> 00:47:30,520
Speaker 10: of demand. There's some weaknesses, economic weaknesses that people see

897
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:33,360
Speaker 10: in China. So I don't think we're really at risk of,

898
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 10: you know, suddenly having a massive production cut that's going

899
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 10: to send prices sky high. I would say we shouldn't

900
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 10: really be worried about that. But what we should be worried,

901
00:47:42,080 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 10: what we could be worried about is the group falling

902
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:48,760
Speaker 10: apart or the group becoming less in line with the market.

903
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:52,560
Speaker 10: So when you have countries that are producing and they're

904
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:54,879
Speaker 10: not producing up to their quota, or the quotas don't match,

905
00:47:55,239 --> 00:48:00,359
Speaker 10: the market lacks the right information about who's pumping what oil,

906
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 10: and that's really important, I think. And so bringing these

907
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 10: numbers in line with their actual capabilities provides really vital

908
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:10,439
Speaker 10: information to the people who are looking at the market

909
00:48:10,480 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 10: and saying, hey, wait, how much actual oil is out there?

910
00:48:14,000 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 10: And I think that provides really valuable information and helps

911
00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:20,720
Speaker 10: decrease volatility. So what we're looking at now is increase

912
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:24,920
Speaker 10: volatility with the potential for things to go farther downward

913
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:27,920
Speaker 10: if we don't get any agreement. I think it's unlikely

914
00:48:28,040 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 10: we won't see any agreement because OPE can always try

915
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 10: to maintain the status quo, which isn't great, but at

916
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:37,960
Speaker 10: least it's something, and it's better than, say, you know,

917
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 10: an all out supply production contest. I think we're unlikely

918
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 10: to see that. But there's definitely this period of tension,

919
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,399
Speaker 10: and the question is how far will Saudi Arabia take

920
00:48:50,520 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 10: this to push these members to actually conform to what

921
00:48:54,400 --> 00:48:57,480
Speaker 10: they want? And that's the real question. And the Saudi

922
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 10: Oil minister, he can be someone of a live wire.

923
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 7: Ellen.

924
00:49:04,200 --> 00:49:06,200
Speaker 2: We always learned something when we talked to Alan Wald.

925
00:49:06,239 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 2: Many thanks for joining us today on sound On, senior

926
00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 2: fellow at the Atlantic Council, author of Saudi Inc. Just

927
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,359
Speaker 2: looking at average gas prices going into the holiday here

928
00:49:15,360 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 2: at Kaylee three dollars twenty eight cents nationally. A year

929
00:49:19,040 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 2: ago we were at three sixty three. At least there's that,

930
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:26,800
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast.

931
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

932
00:49:30,080 --> 00:49:32,480
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933
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,520
Speaker 2: find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one

934
00:49:35,600 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 2: pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com