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Speaker 1: The volume.

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Speaker 2: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up, Fire, Fam,

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Speaker 2: It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday, November eleventh. Oh,

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Speaker 2: I guess they call that football last night? Huh? Is

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Speaker 2: that what they're calling it? It was a football game

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Speaker 2: last night. Obviously, we'll start with Happy Veterans Day to

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Speaker 2: all kids are off today. We're celebrating veterans. It's a

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Speaker 2: big Veterans weekend for Fox. I didn't even realize. I

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Speaker 2: don't remember it being a holiday weekend as a kid.

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Speaker 2: But then again, as a kid, it felt like every

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Speaker 2: day was a holiday. It was just like come home

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Speaker 2: from school, go play sports outside for several hours, and

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Speaker 2: then come home at dinner time. And let's just say

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Speaker 2: it's not the same anymore as my kid has rediscovered

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Speaker 2: Fortnite and now plays hangs out with his friends playing

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Speaker 2: Fortnite and you know, for hours on end. But I

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Speaker 2: guess that's the new hang my dad hang before we

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Speaker 2: get into NFL. And our guest today was the Great Foxes.

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Speaker 2: Our men's basketball team finished the regular season undefeated, number

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Speaker 2: one seed. Playoffs start after Thanksgiving. It's weird. We were

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Speaker 2: up like twenty five thirty. It was an unbelievable first half.

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Speaker 2: We were raining threes. I think we probably made ten

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Speaker 2: twelve threes in the first half. We had like fifty

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Speaker 2: four points. And then we just kind of messed around

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Speaker 2: and the other team kind of came back. They were

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Speaker 2: fighting to get in the playoffs, and if they needed

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Speaker 2: to win, we weren't going to lose. But they did

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Speaker 2: cut it to eight in the second half. I guess,

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Speaker 2: you know, our big guy who was totally dominant, the

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Speaker 2: big guy who played at uc R Vine, he dislocated

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Speaker 2: a knuckle and how like at the end of the

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Speaker 2: first half, and our doctor, on like one of our

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Speaker 2: players as it is an er doc, popped it back in.

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Speaker 2: And then our big guy didn't shoot great in the

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Speaker 2: second half, so we're like, oh, and it was just whatever.

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Speaker 2: They cut it the lead and we were able to

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Speaker 2: win and secure the number one seed. So I think

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Speaker 2: I think we will play Mosgov in the first round

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Speaker 2: of the play semifinals and then we'll be in the finals.

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Speaker 2: After that. Mosgov's team they look good, but they lost again,

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Speaker 2: so you know, we can handle hang with it. But

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Speaker 2: you guys don't care about men's basketball. You're here to listen.

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Speaker 3: To Takes on the Bears sixteen Panthers thirteen, a thriller

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Speaker 3: between an undrafted rookie and Bryce Young, who continues, My god,

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Speaker 3: I mean again, I said this last week.

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Speaker 2: I was feeling bad for Bryce Young. I mean, you guys,

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Speaker 2: I'm not alone. There's no way I'm alone watching this

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Speaker 2: twenty one of thirty eight for a buck eighty five

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Speaker 2: four point nine yards per attempt. I don't see greatness.

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Speaker 2: I don't see anything. And I mean Bryce Young was

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Speaker 2: dynamic in college. I had the concerns about the size,

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Speaker 2: but he's a playmaker, they said. I mean, listen, Carolina,

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Speaker 2: there's no way around this. At the ten week mark

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Speaker 2: or whatever, they bungled the number one pick. Bad trading

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Speaker 2: up for Bryce Young. That doesn't even get into the

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Speaker 2: Miles Sanders disaster. I saw online. Everybody's killing the Panthers

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Speaker 2: because they spent like twenty five million on Miles Sanders

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Speaker 2: in the off season. He carries I think two times

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Speaker 2: for negative five yards. He I don't even think he

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Speaker 2: has five hundred yards rushing the season. I don't even

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Speaker 2: know if he has three hundred yards rushing. He's been

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Speaker 2: an abomination, and you know it goes to the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: We're smart, right, Miles Sanders look good, looked awesome on

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Speaker 2: the way to the Super Bowl. And then they're like, oh,

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Speaker 2: we'll let him go. We can replace him with Deandres,

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Speaker 2: with Boston Scott, whoever, and they don't miss a beat.

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Speaker 2: And Miles Scott, Miles Sanders looks like they criminally overpaid.

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Speaker 2: Chuba Hubbard is leading the way in the backfield. But

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Speaker 2: Carolina is just a bad, bad football team. Outside of

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Speaker 2: the one bomb to the kid straight Trey hand, the

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Speaker 2: longest play they had was fourteen yards. Their offense is

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Speaker 2: operating in such a little tiny box that it doesn't

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Speaker 2: scare anyone. I know they had with the fifty nine

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Speaker 2: yard field goal to uh to tie it late in

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Speaker 2: the game, but what does that even matter? They are one.

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Speaker 2: They are the toughest watch in the league. There's nothing

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Speaker 2: dynamic about this team. I said yesterday on the Herd that, like, listen,

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Speaker 2: there's a world where if bagent outproduces young, go ahead

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Speaker 2: and put Frank Craig on the hot seat, folks. Tepper

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Speaker 2: is one of those guys who is not gonna put

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Speaker 2: up with losing. He ushered out Matt Rule quickly. Go

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Speaker 2: look at what he's doing with his soccer team. I

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Speaker 2: don't think he's gonna stand for much more of this.

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Speaker 2: They traded up for Bryce Young, Dj Moore no longer

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Speaker 2: on their team, and like, I don't know how they're

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Speaker 2: gonna they don't have their first round pick, Like, how

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Speaker 2: is this team gonna get great quickly? I don't know

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Speaker 2: what that like. Even if you were like, you know what,

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Speaker 2: we're pushing out, Frank Greig, We're gonna bring in guy

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Speaker 2: like Okay, who wants this job? This is not a

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Speaker 2: great job. I mean, I just I don't see it

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Speaker 2: at all. Like this game was just brutal to watch,

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Speaker 2: you know. I had I had a friend text me

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Speaker 2: that Caitlin Clark was more fun watching her play basketball

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Speaker 2: for Iowa than it was Chicago versus Carolina, And he

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Speaker 2: and my NBA buddies were like, did you see Trey

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Speaker 2: Young go off in Mexico? I was like, I didn't

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Speaker 2: even know Atlanta and Orlando we're playing in Mexico. Trey

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Speaker 2: Young had a hell of a game. I saw Giannis

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Speaker 2: had fifty four, but he lost to Tyrese Halibert and

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Speaker 2: the plucky Pacers, who I was telling you about Pacers

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Speaker 2: over six and three. Now, this team is they're gonna

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Speaker 2: be a playoff team if this keeps up and they

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Speaker 2: can stay healthy. I like them, but there's not a

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Speaker 2: lot to like about the Carolina Panthers at all. And

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Speaker 2: I think the idea of Frank Reich being one and

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Speaker 2: done if they go they win one, two, three games.

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Speaker 2: Remember he ended ugly in Indy and they just they

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Speaker 2: can't do anything right. This is so I don't know

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Speaker 2: to say, man, Frank Reich was I mean, remember how

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Speaker 2: much I don't know if it was that much money

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Speaker 2: he won us, but it was. It was a playoff

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Speaker 2: game in Buffalo and the Colts were the dog and

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Speaker 2: they covered the spread. It was an awesome cover. I

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Speaker 2: think Philip Rivers was a quarterback. It was just a

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Speaker 2: few years ago before the Bills got to be the Bills,

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Speaker 2: and it was just a great cover. When like, oh,

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Speaker 2: Frank Reich, this guy knows offense. I mean he hasn't

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Speaker 2: shown anything since then. It's been pretty bleak. So if

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Speaker 2: you're a Carolina fan, sorry, guys, it's a rough Go

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Speaker 2: Chicago fans. At least there's hope and optimism. Looks like

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Speaker 2: you're gonna get two top four picks in the draft,

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Speaker 2: Drake May Caleb Williams. Either one's a win and then

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Speaker 2: I would grab Marvin Harrison with the other one. Bears

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Speaker 2: are sitting pretty you know, Justin Field's probably coming back

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Speaker 2: next week whatever that means. But yeah, it was a rough, rough,

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Speaker 2: Thursday night football game. And listen, Sunday night football is

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Speaker 2: not gonna be great. Raiders, Jets, Monday Night Football, Broncos Bills.

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Speaker 2: It's a week week's late this weekend. But to break

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Speaker 2: it down like we always do, we got to guess

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Speaker 2: Jared Smith, Fox Sports Radio in Vegas. We break down

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Speaker 2: the games we like a lot. It's weird. I'm just

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Speaker 2: gonna give you the advance warning. For whatever reason, it

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Speaker 2: was pretty clear this week. Besides, I like for the contest,

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Speaker 2: and it's usually like I'm hemming and haweing. I'm thinking,

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Speaker 2: I'm thinking, but like I'm kind of sort of locked

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Speaker 2: in on four or five teams and I'm like, all right,

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Speaker 2: you know, off the four and one, I feel good,

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Speaker 2: I feel confident, and usually when this happens, I end

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Speaker 2: up it ends up going badly. I need to really

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Speaker 2: hunker down and give it a lot of thought, but

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Speaker 2: then it's like, oh, are you gonna overthink it? I

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Speaker 2: don't know, you know, obviously Saints, I like, I told you, Cowboys, Seahawks, Ravens.

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Speaker 2: I don't know who screws up there, honestly. Now, the

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Speaker 2: divisional matchups worry me, but I will add the games

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Speaker 2: we didn't talk about that I'm looking at. I'm considering

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Speaker 2: the Packers getting three and a half in Pittsburgh. I

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Speaker 2: don't get Steelers though. That's the problem. I've been screwing

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Speaker 2: around the Steelers all season and never get them right.

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Speaker 2: I like the Lions, but I don't I don't know

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Speaker 2: if I can lay three with the Lions on the road,

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Speaker 2: although they'll probably be playing what sixty forty home crowd

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Speaker 2: for Detroit. And then the other game that I haven't

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Speaker 2: really looked at much is Tennessee Tampa. I'm kind of

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Speaker 2: thinking Tennessee, but we'll see. It's early, all right. Let's

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Speaker 2: get to our guest, Jared Smith, Fox Sports Radio. Football

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Speaker 2: is back. No more preseason games. The regular season is here.

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Speaker 2: While we all love watching our favorite teams on television,

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Speaker 2: there is nothing better than being in a game live

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Speaker 2: and in person, and the best way to get tickets

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Speaker 2: to any of these games is on game Time, the

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Speaker 4: You know a guy.

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Speaker 2: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 2: to sports. I know what sports fans want, but for

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Speaker 2: everything he doesn't.

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Speaker 4: He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 3: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 3: guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's welcome into straight fire. A guy. We

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Speaker 2: need to go to Vegas. It's time to go to Vegas.

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Speaker 2: Huge week ten in the NFL. Bad games, Maybe an

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Speaker 2: opportunity to pick up some more dubs. Jared Smith, Fox

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Speaker 2: Sports Radio Jared, how are you man?

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Speaker 4: I'm doing great, Jason. I feel like we're really in

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Speaker 4: the thick of it now. Right about half way through

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Speaker 4: the year, we can pretty much separate who the good,

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Speaker 4: good teams and the great teams are.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's before we get to the NFL. I saw

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Speaker 2: in your bio Europe Penn State guy, Penn State hosting Michigan.

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Speaker 2: Can I say embattled Michigan? I don't know. In college football,

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Speaker 2: it's in Happy Valley. If this game were at night,

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Speaker 2: I would give Penn State more of a chance. I

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Speaker 2: have bet Michigan in this one. Where are you on

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Speaker 2: the game?

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Speaker 4: I agree with that stance. I think the fact that

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Speaker 4: it's not a night game, and I know James Franklin

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Speaker 4: kinda played it off this week and made a ridiculous

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Speaker 4: comment that it was the early games. Actually that get

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Speaker 4: a lot of juice in the building. Coming from someone

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Speaker 4: that was at the first Penn State white out at

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Speaker 4: night against an Ohio State team. The night games there

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Speaker 4: are just absurd, and I think Michigan it's it is

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Speaker 4: very fair to question their resume. They've won every game

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Speaker 4: by at least twenty four points this year, but based

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Speaker 4: off of record it seems like Rutgers and ULV are

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Speaker 4: the best teams that they faced, and they haven't faced

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Speaker 4: the rank team since last year when they lost the

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Speaker 4: TCU in the Semis. So it just it feels like

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Speaker 4: it's hard to really grade who Michigan is. But you

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Speaker 4: could say the same thing about Penn State because they've

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Speaker 4: played one really good team and they got pushed around

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Speaker 4: in that game. The positive I think for the Nitney

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Speaker 4: Lions is Drew Aller. It looks like he's a little

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Speaker 4: more confident. He had the game winning drive against Indiana,

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Speaker 4: and then the following week or last week against Maryland,

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Speaker 4: we saw him push the ball down the field for

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Speaker 4: the first time, and that was the issue against Ohio State.

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Speaker 4: They just weren't aggressive on offense. But twelve out of

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Speaker 4: his thirty five attempts against Maryland last week, we're ten

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Speaker 4: or more yards down the field. So if we can

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Speaker 4: get a little more consistency and continuity from that Penn

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Speaker 4: State offense, I think they have a chance to keep

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Speaker 4: it close. But then last year's game pops into my head, Jason,

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Speaker 4: where yeah, they ran for over four hundred yards against US,

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Speaker 4: and it just it felt like in the trenches. Michigan

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Speaker 4: is still tougher, and if that's the case in this game,

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Speaker 4: Penn State will not be able to hold them.

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Speaker 2: I am curious the investigation the NCAA, the allegations I

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Speaker 2: know on people on the outside who distractions, I don't know.

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Speaker 2: I kind of see it as they hunker down us

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Speaker 2: against the world. They're coming against the family. Let's kick

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Speaker 2: their ass, you know, one of those deals.

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Speaker 4: Totally agree, And I think next year's team might be

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Speaker 4: impacted negatively. And I think if they start taking coordinators

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Speaker 4: off the field this season that might change how I feel.

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Speaker 4: But right now everyone is on schedule to be on

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Speaker 4: the sidelines against Penn State, and as long as that's

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Speaker 4: the case, I don't think this year's team is going

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Speaker 4: to have an impact. In fact, I would I agree

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Speaker 4: with you. I would say net positive as it kind

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Speaker 4: of galvanizes them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, clearly. All right, let's get to the NFL.

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Speaker 2: It's a weird week. A lot of backup quarterbacks. I

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Speaker 2: think there were nine last week. I see I seven

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Speaker 2: or eight this week. It's kind of an ugly slate.

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Speaker 2: That being said, we surely can extract some value somewhere.

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet it that heavily. I hit on a

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Speaker 2: couple games earlier in the week. I'll say with this,

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Speaker 2: you know, as we're recording this Thursday afternoon, I hit

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Speaker 2: the Saints earlier this week. I talked about liking them

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Speaker 2: a little fade of Josh Dobbs. I see that Saints

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Speaker 2: are now trending towards three and most spots anything from

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Speaker 2: you on Saints vikings. Josh Doobbs at home week two.

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Speaker 2: He now knows his teammates' names.

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Speaker 4: He knows.

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Speaker 2: Saints killed me last week. My only whiff in the contest,

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Speaker 2: just a brutal non cover despite being plus five in turnovers.

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Speaker 2: I'm going back to the well with clueless Dennis Allen.

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Speaker 4: No. I I like the approach because I think a

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Speaker 4: lot of betters are going to buy into the Dobbs

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Speaker 4: narrative right the past or not. And it's it's one

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Speaker 4: of the best stories. I want to see. Oh that's

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Speaker 4: Jason Well because he's like an aerospace engineer, and I

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Speaker 4: guess they gave him they dubbed them that. It's I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's fantastic. It's it's one of those stories that in

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Speaker 4: the NFL, and you know he's covered this league, A wow.

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Speaker 4: Every year, there's a couple of guys every season that

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Speaker 4: kind of capture our hearts and minds right. One year

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Speaker 4: it was Gardner Minshew when he was doing his backup thing,

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Speaker 4: And this year, I think it's it's this top story.

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Speaker 4: This is the third team he's been on this season,

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Speaker 4: and who can forget last year when he almost took

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Speaker 4: Tennessee to the playoffs. So yeah, I just think it's

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Speaker 4: it's it's a tough spot and he continues to prove

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Speaker 4: people wrong in tough spots. But in the NFL over

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Speaker 4: the long haul, those things tend to even out. And

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Speaker 4: I think I agree that the Saints are a good spot.

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Speaker 4: I actually put them. We talked about it before we

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Speaker 4: came on. I'm doing a lot of teasers this week.

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Speaker 4: The first bet I made this week was actually a

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Speaker 4: ten point teaser involving the Saints going from two and

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Speaker 4: a half to plus seven and a half. And I

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Speaker 4: do that sometimes. I don't think ten point teasers too often.

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Speaker 4: Usually I do one a week because A I love

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Speaker 4: teasing games because points are so important in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: And it might it might sound a little minus ev

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Speaker 4: but I've asked a couple of pro betters. When you

288
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Speaker 4: go from a minus two and a half, especially on

289
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Speaker 4: the road road favorite, to a plus seven and a half,

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Speaker 4: it's actually a pretty decent teaser spot. And I agree.

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Speaker 4: I think the Saints defensively, they're going to constrict this

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Speaker 4: Minnesota offense. And I like what I've seen with Brian

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Speaker 4: Flores's unit on defense. They're very aggressive. They blitzed like

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Speaker 4: fifty percent of the plays. But I think the short

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Speaker 4: passing game Alvin Kamara will be able to negate that enough.

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Speaker 4: And I think Saints do probably win this game, and

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Speaker 4: I agree it'll probably trend towards three come Sunday.

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Speaker 2: A lot of it I thought was the Falcons just ineptitude,

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Speaker 2: Arthur Smith in the red zone, just some dumb du

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Speaker 2: I mean a John hu Smith end around a tight end,

301
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Speaker 2: end around on the one yard line when you got

302
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Speaker 2: b John Robinson, who's drafted in the top ten, I

303
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Speaker 2: don't know, just a lot of curious that they could

304
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Speaker 2: have gone up double digits at that point and you think,

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Speaker 2: and it's over. I did lose on Atlanta last week,

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Speaker 2: a brutal one, but yeah, Dobbs, I think and remember

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Speaker 2: he started to turn it over more in Arizona at

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Speaker 2: the end when kind of the book was out on him,

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Speaker 2: you know exactly, and I caught up. I would assume

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Speaker 2: Dennis Allen defensive mind gets it done here. It feels like,

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Speaker 2: I don't know, twenty to nine or something wacky like that.

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Speaker 4: I agree Saints something under.

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Speaker 2: Is there a game you like that sticks out? Maybe

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Speaker 2: your top non teaser.

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Speaker 4: So I think we were talking about this Bengals Tuxans

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Speaker 4: game before it came on. I think the Jamar Chase

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Speaker 4: news is gonna have an impact, probably by a half

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Speaker 4: a point or so on the number. The fact that

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Speaker 4: it's hovering around seven. Maybe maybe it'll a quarter of

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Speaker 4: a point like it's on seven now at some shots,

321
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Speaker 4: maybe goes to six minus one or six and a

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Speaker 4: half minus one, fifteen, or there will be some impact

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Speaker 4: if he is banged up in this game. And I

324
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Speaker 4: think on the other side, we love CJ. Stroud another

325
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Speaker 4: one of those kind of great stories that everyone is

326
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Speaker 4: buying in right now. He definitely won the Offensive Rookie

327
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Speaker 4: of the Year award last week. But now this is

328
00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:20,120
Speaker 4: a different test, right because everyone now knows the running

329
00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 4: game is pretty much done for Houston and it's all

330
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Speaker 4: about the quick passing game, and they've been very precise

331
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Speaker 4: and they've been able to you know, Stroud hasn't turned

332
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Speaker 4: it over, and they've been able to really kind of

333
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Speaker 4: vastly exceed anyone's expectations for how explosive that offense can be.

334
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Speaker 4: But now you go on the road against the Bengals

335
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Speaker 4: team that I think as good as Joe Burrow is

336
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Speaker 4: and I think the Bengals could be the Super Bowl winner.

337
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Speaker 4: I honestly, I honestly think the best team in the

338
00:16:43,760 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 4: NFL them in Baltimore. It's the defense really that sets

339
00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:50,240
Speaker 4: the tone and sweet lou Anna Romo is one of

340
00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:52,000
Speaker 4: my favorite coordinators in the league. Like, this is a

341
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Speaker 4: different challenge for CJ. Stroud. So under forty eight felt

342
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:56,520
Speaker 4: like a good spot. We've seen that get whacked down

343
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Speaker 4: out of forty seven, and now I'm starting to see

344
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:01,200
Speaker 4: you know, the Evans all pop off the board and

345
00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,480
Speaker 4: it's mostly six and a half. So I think this

346
00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:05,879
Speaker 4: is a tighter game and a lower scoring game than

347
00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:07,040
Speaker 4: probably people expect.

348
00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:08,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a weird one. It's a bit of a

349
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 2: trap game for the Bengals. You come off the massive

350
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Speaker 2: game against the Bills, Sunday Night Football. And then next

351
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Speaker 2: week is the Ravens, who are leading the division. As

352
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Speaker 2: you said, you know, maybe top team in the football

353
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Speaker 2: and this is like a bit of a step down

354
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Speaker 2: in class. Remember this is a Texans team that has

355
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,239
Speaker 2: gone on the road, Jared and not look great. They

356
00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,920
Speaker 2: could couldn't get separation against the Panthers, lost Stroud. Did

357
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,560
Speaker 2: Stroud look lost? And then they went to the Falcons

358
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,439
Speaker 2: and were like, eh, fifty seven percent completions. I know

359
00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:36,960
Speaker 2: Stroud look good on one drive Lake, but other than

360
00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 2: that Jacksonville game on the road, Stroud has looked like

361
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,639
Speaker 2: a rookie on the road. And you mentioned lou Anarumo.

362
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 2: I don't want to say he's gonna bottle up Stroud obviously,

363
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 2: but I do think we see a come back to

364
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:51,000
Speaker 2: Earth moment. I just wonder that some of these Bengals

365
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:53,560
Speaker 2: second halves at home against Seattle against Buffalo, they just

366
00:17:53,600 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 2: kind of play with their food and let the opponent

367
00:17:55,760 --> 00:17:58,920
Speaker 2: hang around. That concerns me when the spread is close

368
00:17:58,960 --> 00:17:59,880
Speaker 2: to a touchdown.

369
00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,040
Speaker 4: One hundred percent, and I think this feels like a

370
00:18:02,080 --> 00:18:04,000
Speaker 4: twenty four to seventeen kind of game where if you're

371
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,879
Speaker 4: on either side of the spread. You're probably in it

372
00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 4: until the very end, until somebody makes one of those

373
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 4: plays either on the positive or the negative side of

374
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:13,600
Speaker 4: the ledger, and you kind of lose it by a score.

375
00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 4: I think the under based on the movement again open

376
00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 4: forty eight now we're seeing and I think a lot

377
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,760
Speaker 4: of it is the Jamar Chase news being baked in,

378
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:22,840
Speaker 4: but it's an outdoor game for CJ. Stroud on the

379
00:18:22,920 --> 00:18:26,919
Speaker 4: road after a massive performance. It feels like the market

380
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 4: probably got a little inflated off that number, and I

381
00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,520
Speaker 4: think probably forty six is likely the safer number that

382
00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,600
Speaker 4: this thing closes, So under forty seven still feels like

383
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 4: a good bet.

384
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,719
Speaker 2: Yeah. Are you doing a lot of totals, like midway

385
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:40,400
Speaker 2: through the season, now that we've got, you know, half

386
00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,760
Speaker 2: a season worth of data points? Like, is total's a

387
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,640
Speaker 2: thing for you? Because I was with it or early

388
00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 2: on them, that underrun kind of hurt. I was able

389
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,159
Speaker 2: to bounce back with some of them, but then I decided,

390
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 2: you know what, let me just stick to sides and

391
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:52,520
Speaker 2: exotic stuff. Yeah.

392
00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a good question. I think every every better,

393
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,400
Speaker 4: especially when you watch as much as we do, right,

394
00:18:58,520 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 4: Like you get vibes during parts of the season where

395
00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 4: now that we're in November and you know the weather's

396
00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,600
Speaker 4: turning a little bit, I think I am more inclined

397
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:09,760
Speaker 4: to bet unders than I am overs. But then you

398
00:19:09,800 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 4: look at some of these intriguing low totals, like I

399
00:19:12,440 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 4: thought that Minnesota Atlanta game last week with the totals

400
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:19,239
Speaker 4: like thirty seven, and I love the Vikings defensively, but

401
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,439
Speaker 4: they are very blitz happy, and that was an indoor

402
00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 4: game with Atlanta's offense, and you know, the Vikings are

403
00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 4: very boom or bust defensively. So those are spots where

404
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,400
Speaker 4: the totals just so insanely low. Someone sneezes and falls

405
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 4: off the bench and it goes over. So I think

406
00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:34,080
Speaker 4: it's all situation. Will dependent in the weather. Of course,

407
00:19:34,119 --> 00:19:36,000
Speaker 4: at this time of year, does play a really big factor.

408
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, it looks like there's like six or seven games

409
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,399
Speaker 2: in the thirties. It's just that's list. I'm not going

410
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:43,480
Speaker 2: to go macro here and bash the league and the

411
00:19:43,520 --> 00:19:45,679
Speaker 2: quarterback play and the lack of offense. Some of these

412
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,639
Speaker 2: Sundays have not been beautiful. Now we don't get a

413
00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:51,200
Speaker 2: lot of them, so we've got to really enjoy them. Yeah,

414
00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 2: let me go to another game that I hit earlier

415
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,879
Speaker 2: this week was Seattle against Washington. You know, one of

416
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 2: the things I do at the beginning of every week, Jared,

417
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 2: and you know you can laugh at this, it's fine.

418
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 2: I chart out the teams that are playing right, and

419
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,320
Speaker 2: I look at who did not cover the prior week

420
00:20:05,440 --> 00:20:08,040
Speaker 2: versus who did, and I kind of isolate those matchups

421
00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 2: and I look to see if there was any line

422
00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:13,680
Speaker 2: movement from the look ahead. And usually there is a

423
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 2: little bit. Maybe it's half a point, a point, but

424
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:19,520
Speaker 2: usually there's some movement. There's a they did extremely well

425
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 2: last week by my chart. There has not been a

426
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 2: losing week. There's been a lot of five hundreds. But

427
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,159
Speaker 2: it's just a very basic tool that I used to

428
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 2: start the process. In one of these games is Seattle Washington.

429
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:33,320
Speaker 2: So Seattle gets smoked in Baltimore, doesn't come close to

430
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:35,440
Speaker 2: covering against like one hundred and fifty yards. Nobody wants

431
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 2: any piece of Seattle. Ano they're facing Washington, which beat

432
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,800
Speaker 2: hapless New England, and you know, kind of look decent.

433
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 2: I don't know, I love Seattle.

434
00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:45,720
Speaker 4: Here.

435
00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: I see it's six up to six and a half now,

436
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,879
Speaker 2: but a lot of people are like, well, Sam Howell,

437
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: you know, like he's looked Okay. I don't know, man, Jared.

438
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:56,400
Speaker 2: I look at Seattle coming off games against Cleveland, top

439
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 2: defense in the league, and Baltimore best team in the league,

440
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,679
Speaker 2: and now you go face Washington, which is probably somewhere

441
00:21:02,680 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 2: in like the twenties in terms of DVOA and all that.

442
00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 2: I feel like this is potentially a Seattle smash side.

443
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,040
Speaker 4: I agree, and again I tweet earlier in the show,

444
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:13,000
Speaker 4: I said that the first bet I made this week,

445
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 4: and usually that's to speak to your process. I love

446
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,560
Speaker 4: that process. I love any I love any process that

447
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,120
Speaker 4: has logic behind it that's based off of a market,

448
00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 4: a market reaction, because I think in the NFL, it's

449
00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,439
Speaker 4: it's the most efficient market. I know there's dispute there,

450
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 4: it's it's it's up there right when it moves violently

451
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 4: from week to week, that's where the opportunities come. So

452
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 4: tracking that movement from week to week I think is

453
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 4: a helpful tool because it kind of gives you the

454
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 4: opportunity to frame the market at those by low sell

455
00:21:40,760 --> 00:21:44,119
Speaker 4: high spots, and Seattle is one of those teams. I

456
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 4: feel like I have Seattle figured out when they manage

457
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 4: up in class, especially a tough, defensive minded team like Baltimore,

458
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,120
Speaker 4: Gino Smith is going to struggle and turn it over.

459
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 4: When they are facing more of a softer team, they

460
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:58,439
Speaker 4: are the bully. And it's obvious what the vibe is

461
00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 4: this week, like they are facing a Washington team that

462
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 4: has that turtling quality to them when they manage up

463
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,240
Speaker 4: in class. They got by last week against New England,

464
00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 4: right like they kind of skated, and I think now

465
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 4: they're gonna be up for a very different challenge this week.

466
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,119
Speaker 4: So the ten point teaser has the Saints from it

467
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 4: was two and a half to seven and a half,

468
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 4: and then the Seahawks from minus six and a half

469
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,000
Speaker 4: to plus three and a half. That is a really

470
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 4: solid move to get a touchdown favorite at home. Now

471
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:28,120
Speaker 4: it's trending towards seven all the way to plus three

472
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:29,679
Speaker 4: and a half at home, So to me, that's a

473
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 4: very positive teaser spot. The third part of that teaser

474
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,840
Speaker 4: was the Jets getting them through three and seven on

475
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,840
Speaker 4: the other side, So Snucks, Saints and Jets. Oh, I know,

476
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 4: Jason and we are we can get to that game.

477
00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 4: And I were forced to bet the Jets this weekend

478
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:49,679
Speaker 4: last week. But back to Seattle. They're the bully in

479
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 4: this role, and I think Washington on the road Sam

480
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 4: Howell do not trust them.

481
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, people are like, oh well, Washington traded their defensive ends,

482
00:22:55,680 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: but look look what they did against New England. They

483
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 2: kind of shut them down. It's like, look at the ratios.

484
00:22:59,600 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 2: I mean, Douglas the rookies, like the best guy there,

485
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,720
Speaker 2: and now you're going up against Metcalf, Lockett and JSAM

486
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,480
Speaker 2: and it's like, Yo, lost.

487
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:10,280
Speaker 4: An angry loss, Like that was a beating last week

488
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 4: by Baltimore. So this is a tough spot for Washington.

489
00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 2: All right, so you mentioned the Jets. Listen, this is

490
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 2: a tough one for me. I'm a big Jets fan

491
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 2: born in New York, and I'm gonna be flying out

492
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: parachuting into Vegas just for this game. Literally nice airport

493
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 2: to the stadium and then after the stadium back to

494
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 2: the airport because I gotta get back for work. I

495
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:34,680
Speaker 2: cannot back the Jets here. I know they're the side

496
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: and they fall into did not cover Jets versus did.

497
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,720
Speaker 2: But it's like Monday night football and then travel across

498
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 2: the country to face a Raiders team. That's I don't

499
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 2: know what to expect from them, Like, I don't think

500
00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 2: An O'Connell's going to have any success against the Jets.

501
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,800
Speaker 2: But do I trust the offensive line to hold up

502
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 2: against Max Crosby like Billy Turner on an island for

503
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: four quarters against both of Like that was stupid. I

504
00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 2: don't know, Jared, I can't back them or now you

505
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 2: said a ten point teaser, so you're probably getting over

506
00:24:02,720 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 2: a touchdown. Yeah, yeah, you might be, okay, I.

507
00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,760
Speaker 4: Hope, I'm okay. I don't see Aen O'Connell putting distance

508
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 4: between themselves and the Jets. And I agree that it's

509
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 4: gonna be tough for what the Max Crossby, you know,

510
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:23,680
Speaker 4: they're fierce like that Raiders team they they're buying into

511
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:27,120
Speaker 4: Antonio Pierce, I'm sure, and they're definitely a fierce unit

512
00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:29,000
Speaker 4: up front. But I really do think it's the Jets

513
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 4: defense that has to set the tempo and I probably

514
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 4: am not going to bet them straight up. I do

515
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:38,040
Speaker 4: think now, especially now that it's trending back towards a

516
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 4: pick them, and you could get the Jets all the

517
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 4: way up to ten on a ten point taser. That

518
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 4: makes it a little bit more valuable as well, because

519
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,480
Speaker 4: look at the total in this game, thirty six and

520
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 4: a half. So if you're getting ten, you're getting ten

521
00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 4: points on one side or the ledger or the other.

522
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:53,800
Speaker 4: You feel like you're probably gonna cover even a seven

523
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 4: point taser for example, Like if this line gets to

524
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 4: Vegas minus one, let's say it continues to trend towards

525
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 4: Vegas because you know the Jets favored and and we've

526
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 4: seen some buyback on Vegas here. If this gets to

527
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:04,959
Speaker 4: one or one and a half, well, then you can

528
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 4: do a traditional six or six and a half point

529
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 4: teaser to get the Jets threw both of those key numbers.

530
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 4: But I mean, it is wild to see some of

531
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 4: these lower totals on the board. You know, this is

532
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 4: like Iowa Rutgers, Northwestern type territory here with some of

533
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 4: these games. But Zach Wilson could find any consistency on offense.

534
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 4: I do think the Jets have the best offensive weapon

535
00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 4: on the field in Breese Hall, And I know Devanta

536
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 4: Adams is on the field too, but that but they

537
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,560
Speaker 4: have to throw the ball to Devonte whereas Breese can

538
00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 4: just be handed it. So there's some explose. I think Bres.

539
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 4: I think bris when at operating a peak capacity, is

540
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 4: a very very dangerous player, and they're gonna need him

541
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 4: to be the offense down the stretch. And I think

542
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 4: Garrett Wilson's a nice complimentary piece on the outside. Like

543
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 4: they have receivers right, Like there's a couple of guys

544
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 4: that the Jets can't stretch the field with. It's all

545
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 4: about Zach Wilson not making the key mistake, figuring out

546
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 4: a way to get the ball out of his hands quickly,

547
00:25:56,080 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 4: on time and on target. If all of those things

548
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,359
Speaker 4: take place, this is a good spot for the Jets

549
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 4: because the Raiders man smoke a cigars in the locker

550
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,000
Speaker 4: room last week. You know, Park Davis is hanging out

551
00:26:05,040 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 4: with with Max Crosby and they're on the Snapchat live

552
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 4: or whatever whatever the heck they were doing. It just

553
00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: looks it's a good sell spot. It's a good sell spot.

554
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:17,280
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Speaker 2: responsible gaming resources. I'm curious, quarterback, you you trust more

578
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 2: to not give the opponent a pick six or a

579
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 2: fumble six in this game? And that is really get sack.

580
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 4: I think it's Zach really, I still think. I still

581
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 4: think the Jets defense is the best unit on the

582
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 4: field in this game. Yeah, and I think I think

583
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 4: when you look at what Aidan O'Connell is, if they

584
00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 4: are able to suck like justin Herbert Strum, Like if

585
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 4: you take away that the crazy punt return in the

586
00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 4: first quarter, and then of course the fumble at the

587
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 4: end of the game, like that's more than half of

588
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 4: what the Chargers scored on Monday Night. This Jets defense

589
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 4: gets into you. You saw what they did to Jalen

590
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 4: Hurts and his Eagles offense, Like, yeah, they have an

591
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,920
Speaker 4: ability to really take your your strength and make it

592
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 4: a weakness. Well, what is the Raiders' strength right now?

593
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 4: And it's just I think it's gonna be a really

594
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 4: tough game. I think both offense are gonna struggle to

595
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:27,640
Speaker 4: move it here. But I do trust. This sounds crazy.

596
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 4: I trust Zach Wilson just a hair more because of

597
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 4: his experience in these games.

598
00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:36,960
Speaker 2: You know, occasionally I look, I'll look at for any

599
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: any sliver of hope, and I somehow after giving up

600
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: a punt return touchdown. The Jets are still number one

601
00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 2: in special teams according to DBIG, which is a surprise

602
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: to me. Now the Raiders are seventeenth. They have a

603
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,800
Speaker 2: pretty good kicker, I think Carlson, But I don't know

604
00:28:52,800 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 2: about I don't know much about the punt game. It

605
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: just is gonna come down to turnovers, right, Whoever screws up.

606
00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:01,520
Speaker 4: The field position. Yeah, field position turnovers, little things are

607
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 4: going to win this game. I think the Jets defense

608
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 4: is and that's where I usually land on these pick

609
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 4: them type games. If one unit is vastly superior to

610
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 4: all the other units, that's kind of where I go,

611
00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:13,880
Speaker 4: especially when that unit is a stop unit.

612
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 2: Yeah. I hate to bring it up, but I did

613
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:20,240
Speaker 2: bet it. I'm an idiot Dallas mind of sixteen, sixteen

614
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 2: and a half.

615
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 4: I don't hate it.

616
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 2: I don't hate it at seventeen. I don't know. This

617
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: is just a fade of de Vito, right, Like, yeah,

618
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: and a lot of people out there are gonna be like, no.

619
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: You can't better double did your favorite you can't bet

620
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 1: sixteen and a half, Like, even if DeVito luckboxes into

621
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: a bomb to Jalen Hyatt and they score a touchdown,

622
00:29:38,960 --> 00:29:41,080
Speaker 1: do we really think Dallas is not getting like twenty

623
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: seven points?

624
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 4: No, And I think off the loss makes this a

625
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 4: better bet, Like that's why we've seen this go out

626
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 4: to seventeen. Like this, this game wasn't even remotely close. Now,

627
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 4: the initial move from Jones to de Vito was about

628
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: six points, right, it was ten, and then it was

629
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: sixteen overnight. Basically now it's out to set. So even

630
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 4: despite the fact that it moves six points from the

631
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: look ahead last week, we're still seeing this line bought

632
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 4: up to seventeen. So there's clearly love for Dallas in

633
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 4: the market. Like personally, like this is just a personal choice.

634
00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,800
Speaker 4: I don't love laying big numbers in this league, just

635
00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 4: because I think there are there's a lot more a

636
00:30:19,120 --> 00:30:21,920
Speaker 4: lot less margin for error when you're laying a big number,

637
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 4: whereas if you're taking But when you look at this spot,

638
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 4: I want nothing to do with the Giants and that

639
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 4: kind of keeps me off of it. This is honestly,

640
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 4: this is another one of those games where you get

641
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:33,840
Speaker 4: a sixteen and a half and you throw the Cowboys

642
00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,560
Speaker 4: in that ten point t'ser, you get him too, under

643
00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 4: six and a half, the total is another thirty six total,

644
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,720
Speaker 4: thirty seven total. So it's just the points are so

645
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: valuable in those games. When you're moving something that substantial

646
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 4: through a couple of key numbers, you are getting a

647
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: little bit of value on your side. But I don't

648
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 4: see how the Giants move the ball at all in

649
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 4: this game. And Dallas off the loss, which was a

650
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 4: very they should have won that game, frankly, or they

651
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 4: should at least had a chance to tie that game

652
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 4: late based off of the seas quince that kind of

653
00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 4: played out that were, you know, Dallas only being down

654
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,200
Speaker 4: five instead of three because of the two point conversion

655
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,960
Speaker 4: and the other random occurrences. But I do think the

656
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 4: Giants are are in for a long day here.

657
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, And even when I look to other stuff like oh,

658
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: is this a look ahead spot, Nope, Cowboys have the

659
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: Panthers next week. There's that look at its.

660
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 4: Are weird in the NFL. I don't know if I

661
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 4: believe in look aheads in the NFL as much as

662
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 4: I do in college, because these guys are pros. I

663
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 4: think they're I think they're more prone to the letdown

664
00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 4: than they are the look at it in college, I

665
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 4: think you can kind of get it on both ends.

666
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 2: No, definitely agree with that. College is huge. So then

667
00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, what about injuries coming off the Eagles game?

668
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 2: Maybe they're beat up, not just Tyron Smith not not great.

669
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 2: But then you look at the Giants and still know

670
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 2: Evan Neil, not that he's any good. And then a

671
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: Dorri Jackson, the quarterback who everybody picks on. It looks

672
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 2: like he's probably not gonna play with a concussion. So

673
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,719
Speaker 2: it's like, wow, quarterbacks are picking on the number two corner.

674
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 2: Oh my gosh, what are they gonna do? And then

675
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 2: I remember the season opener forty to nothing when the

676
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:55,320
Speaker 2: Giants were here.

677
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, you know, Frankly, that's the that's the indicator.

678
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:01,480
Speaker 4: Like that to me is what the score is probably

679
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 4: gonna look.

680
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 2: Well, special teams Giants thirty first. I think they had

681
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 2: a field goal blocked in the opener, right for a touchdown. Yeah,

682
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 2: Dallas is third, Like, I can't find any edge even

683
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 2: if Dak fumbles fumble six uh, you know, and the

684
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 2: Giants get to ten points, I think their total for

685
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: this is ten and a half, right.

686
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, third, so if it's uh if the total in the.

687
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 2: Game, and then twenty seven and a half, I think,

688
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 2: right something maybe something like that.

689
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, if I were, let's say, if it's forty and seventeen,

690
00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 4: so you know, you know, I guess if I'm doing

691
00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 4: the quick math in my head, what twenty seven to

692
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 4: ten would kind of get you there? So yeah, probably

693
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:35,480
Speaker 4: around ten.

694
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I even would consider the the under ten

695
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:42,320
Speaker 2: and a half for the Giants, Like I don't think Dallas.

696
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 4: Their quarter team total under for the Giants usually I

697
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 4: do that sometimes too, Like the Giants not to score

698
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: in the first quarter might be another interesting one.

699
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean their offense is really ane mc all right.

700
00:32:51,680 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 2: Last game I would like to talk about. It's actually

701
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 2: a good game is the is Is Lions Chargers game.

702
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,640
Speaker 2: So Lion's coming off to buy super due, super healthy.

703
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: Chargers beat the Jets, but like they didn't look good. No,

704
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: but it's not like the Lions defense is as good

705
00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 2: as the Jets. Jared Goff returns to so far like

706
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 2: a lot of interesting angles here. Anything from you on

707
00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: this one?

708
00:33:13,640 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 4: I like the Goth at Sofi angle, especially because I'm

709
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: guessing this is the first time back since the Rams

710
00:33:20,520 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 4: won the Super Bowl. I don't know that for sure,

711
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 4: but if that tracks then then yeah, that there could

712
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 4: be some vibes for him. I think it's it's ironic that,

713
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 4: like when I look at and to glimpse through my process,

714
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: usually when I'm going through a game, I will do

715
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 4: a check mark, kind of like I did with the

716
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 4: Jets Raiders game. If there is one unit to me

717
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:40,560
Speaker 4: that is vastly superior. It's crazy that the Lions defense

718
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 4: is getting close to that check mark for me here

719
00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 4: in this game, the Lions are the only defense in

720
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:46,680
Speaker 4: the league that hasn't allowed a touch on of twenty

721
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 4: more yards. Like they are playing about as buttoned up

722
00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 4: as you can. Like they are, They're not giving up

723
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 4: explosive plays. They're good in the run game, Aaron Glenn's

724
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,960
Speaker 4: got the secondary figured out. I love this Lion's offense.

725
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 4: I think they have weapons on offense, and I think

726
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 4: we're talking a lot about offense Saint Brown and of

727
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 4: course Gibbs, and they are very explosive. But it could

728
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 4: be the Lion's defense that ends up being the unit

729
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,120
Speaker 4: that takes them to the level that they hope to

730
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 4: get to, because you have to have both sides. And

731
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,919
Speaker 4: it's interesting because the Chiefs are in the same boat

732
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 4: right now. Right like the offense, we don't have good

733
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 4: patch Malmes do this, but the Chiefs defense is a

734
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,560
Speaker 4: top five top ten type unit. Like that's just not fair,

735
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 4: it's a cheat code. And I think the Lions are

736
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 4: getting to that level where obvious like Gough is not

737
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:28,240
Speaker 4: on the level of Mahomes, but their defense is starting

738
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 4: to ascend to that top five, top ten level. And

739
00:34:31,160 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 4: you're right, I noticed the same thing and a lot

740
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 4: of the sharps. I mean, one of the biggest sharp

741
00:34:35,360 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 4: moves that I've seen all season came on the Jets

742
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 4: plus three and a half, you know, on game day

743
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 4: ye getting that line back to three, and it was

744
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:46,320
Speaker 4: just the stone cold wrong side. The Jets didn't offer anything,

745
00:34:46,320 --> 00:34:47,920
Speaker 4: but the Chargers. I think it was more of a

746
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,319
Speaker 4: fate of the Chargers laying points in these situations. And

747
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 4: I think that's why you're kind of seeing this number

748
00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 4: tight under a field goal. My guess as we close,

749
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:57,640
Speaker 4: if it does get to three, you'll see the buy

750
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,319
Speaker 4: back on the three and I'm already seeing you know,

751
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 4: if the Chargers do get to that plus three, we're

752
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,360
Speaker 4: gonna probably see some juice there. But to me, Detroit's

753
00:35:04,360 --> 00:35:06,839
Speaker 4: defense is the tone setter here, and obviously no home

754
00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 4: field advantage either for the Chargers makes this very difficult.

755
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 2: It's just it's a tough one because, like you said,

756
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,839
Speaker 2: like all all the Sharps, even our guests last week,

757
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,600
Speaker 2: Steve first game, oh yeah, that was he was.

758
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: He was one of my one of my partners that

759
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 4: was really big on the Jet last week.

760
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, he loved super high on them. I'm like, I think, okay,

761
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:27,279
Speaker 2: got it.

762
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 4: It's a three and a half thing. Those pro better

763
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 4: see that three, hope. Man. They want a reason to

764
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:33,680
Speaker 4: dobble it up. And I understand why. I understand what.

765
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 2: I just like the idea of Herbert getting points at home.

766
00:35:38,880 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 2: I don't know. And it feels like everybody and their

767
00:35:40,719 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 2: mom is on the Lions here.

768
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 4: No sure, I don't think I'm gonna bet this game

769
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 4: at three. I think at three, you don't, you don't

770
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 4: bet Detroit. I think it plus I think plus three

771
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 4: is the Chargers and if it gets down the plus

772
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 4: two and a half, teasing the Chargers up is a

773
00:35:51,920 --> 00:35:53,919
Speaker 4: fair option, and at minus two and a half, maybe

774
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 4: that's where you jump in on Detroit.

775
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 2: All right, so Jared, you're just to recap ten team

776
00:35:58,600 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: tarry ten point teaser. How many do you toss in there?

777
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 4: Three? It's a three and if you get to me

778
00:36:03,120 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 4: minus one twenty minus one thirties kind of the odds

779
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,359
Speaker 4: you're looking for there. Anything higher than that is you're

780
00:36:08,440 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 4: kind of losing the value. But Saints plus seven and

781
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,719
Speaker 4: a half, Seahawks plus three and a half, Jets plus eight,

782
00:36:14,480 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 4: all those numbers should be pretty available still, So you

783
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 4: can bet that teaser now if you want.

784
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 2: What if I told you I would, I would consider

785
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:26,720
Speaker 2: replacing Jets with Ravens because Brown's all low scoring Ravens

786
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: at home, So you would move Ravens to from six.

787
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 4: Plus three and a half at home. Yeah, that's a

788
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 4: good spot. I think the Ravens might be the best

789
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: team in the league right now. They're leading the NFL

790
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: in net yards per play over the last three weeks.

791
00:36:38,400 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 4: They look like an elite team, and I think they're

792
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:46,000
Speaker 4: starting to figure out that offense. You know, the offensive

793
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,439
Speaker 4: coordinator coming over from Georgia last year, Todd Mankins really

794
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 4: renovated it, but it took a few weeks and now

795
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 4: you're starting to see the fruits of it.

796
00:36:52,520 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, interest ten points, I had not. I usually do six,

797
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,280
Speaker 2: six and a half point, like, for instance, this week,

798
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 2: if you feel super confident and an easy one, and

799
00:37:01,480 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 2: I mean none of them are easy, but if you

800
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 2: and a half pointers right, take the Ravens down, Take

801
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 2: the Bengals, take the Seahawks. All you got to do

802
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 2: is win. You know who's blowing that one? I mean, yeah,

803
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:15,840
Speaker 2: it's divisional matchup for the Ravens. Yeah, maybe the Bengals

804
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: without Chase Seattle screws around well Gino Smith f s

805
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 2: it up, but by and large it should be good.

806
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 2: So your ten pointer bigs in. And like the opportunity

807
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: for a loss like there's Washington getting separation would shock me.

808
00:37:29,640 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 4: One hundred perc's and also three and a half, Like

809
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 4: I think, when you're dealing with teams that are favored

810
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,840
Speaker 4: by a lot like a touchdown, for them to lose

811
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 4: by more than a field goal is asking a lot

812
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 4: of that underdog and it doesn't happen a whole lot

813
00:37:42,760 --> 00:37:43,400
Speaker 4: in the NFL.

814
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, we didn't get into Jags Niners. I don't know.

815
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 2: That's just a game.

816
00:37:47,239 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 4: It's a trap game for both teams. I don't know

817
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 4: how you I don't know how you create San Francisco

818
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,040
Speaker 4: right now. I really think it's tough off the buy

819
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 4: three losses, but situationally, I think it's a good spot

820
00:37:56,719 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 4: for them. But I think the Jags are a really

821
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,680
Speaker 4: tough team and that's why this line has not moved

822
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 4: an inch all week. Like it's what he's been sitting

823
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:03,839
Speaker 4: at three the whole week.

824
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:06,720
Speaker 2: One of my buddies texted will early in the season,

825
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,400
Speaker 2: if I told you the Niners are getting or giving

826
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 2: three in Jacksonville, are you taking it? I'd be like, yeah,

827
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,439
Speaker 2: probably so is it not like I don't but things

828
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:18,680
Speaker 2: have changed Trent Williams playing. I don't know.

829
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,480
Speaker 4: It could be. I think Purty Purty is showing the

830
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 4: like perty's kind of showing who he is, and he

831
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 4: is one of those guys that when there's not a

832
00:38:26,239 --> 00:38:29,240
Speaker 4: lot of pressure on him, he's able to operate the offense.

833
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 4: But when things go a little bit haywire, he's not

834
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 4: getting the breaks that he was getting earlier in the

835
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 4: year and last year, and I think, unfortunately that's just

836
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 4: the way the NFL goes sometimes.

837
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:41,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right, good stuff. Jared Smith, Fox Sports Radio.

838
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:43,880
Speaker 2: Enjoy the games. Good luck to your penn State, but

839
00:38:43,960 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: just not too much luck, I all right.

840
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 4: Good luck to our Jets on Sunday.

841
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 2: Huh yes, yes, we'll need that one all right.

842
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 4: Later, have a goe