1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,400 Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p joep Zapia and 3 00:00:06,559 --> 00:00:09,319 Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's Week five of the NFL, 4 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:12,399 Speaker 1: and it's time to look at the stats. Because week 5 00:00:12,480 --> 00:00:15,160 Speaker 1: four certainly had some blacky ones plus a ton of injuries. 6 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 2: They're going to move some lines as we get more updates, and. 7 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: To help us stay ahead of the curve is of 8 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: course the scientists, the mad scientists, perhaps as well Sam Hoppin, 9 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,160 Speaker 1: our data analysts here at Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros, 10 00:00:28,520 --> 00:00:32,919 Speaker 1: to help us get you through this week in wagering. 11 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: Sam Hoppin, great to see you as always, my friend. 12 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: I know some crazy things have been going on. You 13 00:00:37,520 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: got your Jordan Love back for the Packers. I love 14 00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:42,960 Speaker 1: his matchup this week, Oh wee against the Rams. I'm 15 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:47,480 Speaker 1: excited about that one. And unfortunately we have to also 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,599 Speaker 1: temper some expectations. No Jonathan Taylor this week most likely 17 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:53,640 Speaker 1: certainly the Rushi Rice that's going to be a huge 18 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: loss to and some other injuries that we're still trying 19 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,959 Speaker 1: to figure out. But Sam, you know, as we turn 20 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: the page into we five, I think one of the 21 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: biggest storylines has got to be what we've seen out 22 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 1: of the Washington Commanders the last two weeks. I know, 23 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: when we get into the futures discussion this show, I 24 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:10,400 Speaker 1: don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves, but 25 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: could we be looking at the Washington Commanders being this 26 00:01:14,360 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: year's version of last year's Houston Texans. 27 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:21,640 Speaker 3: From an offensive perspective, certainly, I mean they've been guns 28 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 3: of blaze and on offense, they're hitting on every cylinder 29 00:01:25,880 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 3: right now. They're just they're moving the ball. They have 30 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 3: the lowest three and out rate in the league, highest 31 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 3: VP per drive, all that sort of stuff. The one 32 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 3: concern is the defense, which the Texans did have a 33 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: much better defense last year. Now, Washington's defense played a 34 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 3: little bit better last week against a Cardinals offense that 35 00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 3: I have rated pretty highly, but I think again their 36 00:01:48,600 --> 00:01:51,360 Speaker 3: defense is ranked dead last in a lot of metrics. 37 00:01:51,440 --> 00:01:55,040 Speaker 3: I think they need to get to top twenty, top 38 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,240 Speaker 3: sixteen to really have a chance to be, you know, 39 00:01:58,400 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 3: reach the ceiling that the Texans did last year, which 40 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:03,760 Speaker 3: is getting to the playoffs and making some noise in 41 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 3: the playoffs. So certainly, from a where were we with 42 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 3: this team preseason to where we are now they are 43 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: and they're further ahead of the curve than I think 44 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 3: the Texans were last year. Wasn't until sort of the middle. 45 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:18,079 Speaker 2: Of the skills in that. 46 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Texans had all those offensive line injuries and 47 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: so remember last year they had all the whole all 48 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 1: went line was out last year. I feel like that 49 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:28,600 Speaker 1: kind of maybe held them back just a little bit 50 00:02:28,639 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: where you saw some glimpses of hey, maybe this could 51 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: be special and then oh, line got healthy and obviously 52 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:34,560 Speaker 1: they rolled into the playoffs. 53 00:02:34,600 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 2: So we've got a lot to break down today. 54 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 1: Before we get into everything, just a reminder to we 55 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 1: got a new giveaway going on here at Betting Pros 56 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: Old School Michael's Trayhan Giants Jersey. Remember when the Giants 57 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: were good at football? Well I do, and when they 58 00:02:47,480 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: were Michael Strahan was playing. So if you want a 59 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 1: chance to win this bad boy from our good friends 60 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 1: over at Pristine Auction dot com, all you need to 61 00:02:54,120 --> 00:02:57,960 Speaker 1: do is head to Bettingpros dot com slash contest. Pretty 62 00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: easy to remember, right, Betting bros dot Com slash cut, 63 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 1: complete the form and either download the Betting Pros app. 64 00:03:03,560 --> 00:03:06,080 Speaker 1: Leave a review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe 65 00:03:06,120 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 1: to our social media channels at Betting Pros on X 66 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: on TikTok and at Betting Pros NFL on ig on 67 00:03:12,480 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: the Instagram. And the more actions you complete, the more 68 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: entries you receive. We'll be announcing the winner right here 69 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 1: on the channel, So make sure you turn on those 70 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: notifications so you can be alerted. Ring that bell to 71 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:23,679 Speaker 1: lit goos ding so you don't miss an episode of 72 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: Betting Pros here on the YouTube channel and you'll be notified. 73 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: And if you are the big winner of the Michael 74 00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,079 Speaker 1: Strahan Jersey Sam, let's kick things off here with a 75 00:03:32,120 --> 00:03:35,600 Speaker 1: little bit of news and notes and what might move 76 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 1: some lines this week. Let's start with the Colts and Jaguars. 77 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:42,440 Speaker 1: The winless Jags, the Colts trying to figure out here 78 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: Tuesday morning, who's going to be playing quarterback this weekend. 79 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: So what are we looking for and paying attention to 80 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: as we look ahead to this game. 81 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we're going to touch on some of the 82 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 3: injuries here because there's a couple things I want to 83 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 3: talk about with this game later on in the show. 84 00:03:56,280 --> 00:03:59,960 Speaker 3: But this open with Jacksonville favored by two and a half, 85 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 3: it was heavily juice towards the three. Now it is 86 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 3: out to three, heavily juice towards the indie side. There 87 00:04:07,000 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 3: are some two and a half's out there as well, 88 00:04:08,800 --> 00:04:12,240 Speaker 3: so really again two and a half three is where 89 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:17,560 Speaker 3: the line's at. We don't have an Anthony Richardson update 90 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 3: right now as of recording. I find it hard to 91 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 3: believe that the Colts, you know, risk him going out 92 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 3: there again. So I think Joe Flacco is probably in 93 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 3: line to make the start, though I don't know that 94 00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:41,440 Speaker 3: that really impacts the line that much. Whether it is 95 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 3: Flacco or Richardson, they have a pretty similar median outcome 96 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 3: in my opinion. Richardson I think has a slightly longer 97 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 3: left tail towards the sort of positive extreme with some 98 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 3: of the deep puls you can have. But Flacco is 99 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:02,480 Speaker 3: sort of a sitting pick six waiting to happen, while 100 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 3: Richardson has obviously made a number of mistakes already this year. 101 00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:12,240 Speaker 3: The other player you mentioned is Jonathan Taylor. As of yesterday, again, 102 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 3: don't have any updates from Shane Stiken on the severity 103 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 3: of his injury. It sounds like there's no concern of 104 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:23,599 Speaker 3: him heading to injured reserve, but his availability for Week 105 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 3: five is certainly in question. And again, the running backs 106 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 3: don't matter. Thing gets thrown around a lot. But he 107 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 3: is one of just a couple of huge playmakers that 108 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 3: the Colts have on offense. So I do think it 109 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 3: changes the dynamic of how the Colts do play this game. 110 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 3: If Jonathan Taylor is not active, I think they lean 111 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 3: a little bit more heavily into the passing game. I 112 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:54,920 Speaker 3: think again, if Flacco is starting and Taylor is out, 113 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 3: then passing and receiving props for the Colts is something 114 00:05:58,640 --> 00:05:59,720 Speaker 3: I'm certainly looking into. 115 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:05,279 Speaker 1: I wonder too, if Laco does play that that raises 116 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 1: the bar and some of those props on guys like Pittman, 117 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:09,480 Speaker 1: you know, just a more proficient passer. Sure there's some 118 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 1: pick sixes them there with Laco, but at the same time, 119 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:13,360 Speaker 1: we saw what he did last year where we started 120 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,000 Speaker 1: to elevate some of those guys like Amari Cooper and 121 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: kind of brought them back to life, those veteran wide outs. 122 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 1: A second game we're gonna talk about here, Chiefs and 123 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:22,600 Speaker 1: Saints now yesterday. If you missed it, go back and 124 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: watch a look Ahead show because it was the last 125 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: game we talked about. It's Monday Night football, and Andrew 126 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: Erickson and I are kind of holding hands here right 127 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,400 Speaker 1: This is a dangerous spot here. Saints coming off a 128 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: disappointing loss, but they're running the ball very well with 129 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,640 Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara right now, the injuries taking their toll a 130 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 1: little bit on the Chiefs. It feels like this one 131 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:42,839 Speaker 1: is right for at least the Saints with the points, 132 00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:46,000 Speaker 1: if not maybe a Chief's you know, maybe dropping the 133 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: ball here and the New Orleans Saints upset. But let's 134 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: talk about all of what the Chiefs have and don't 135 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 1: have right now and how it's going to factor into 136 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: Monday Night. 137 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 3: Yeah. So before we get to the Chiefs, I want 138 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,040 Speaker 3: to talk about Taysom Hill and whether he's going to 139 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 3: play again. I don't know what position he's listed at 140 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:09,279 Speaker 3: these days, but the last time he didn't play, which 141 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 3: was against the Eagles, their offense looked pretty stagnant against 142 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 3: the Eagles. So I do think with how big of 143 00:07:17,240 --> 00:07:20,760 Speaker 3: a red zone threat he is, the types of plays 144 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:25,040 Speaker 3: that he opens up for that Saint's offense, his availability 145 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 3: will certainly have an impact on this game. On the 146 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 3: chief side of the ball obviously lost Rashid Rice. The 147 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 3: severity of his injury is unknown, but Reid did confirm 148 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 3: that he will be out this week. And I really 149 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 3: think this is a much bigger impact than people really expect. 150 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,400 Speaker 3: You know, when you think of Rashi Rice, you don't 151 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 3: think of a guy who's sort of in the Justin Jefferson, 152 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 3: the DeVante Adams, you know tier of receivers. But I 153 00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 3: think he has that level of impact right now. He 154 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:03,080 Speaker 3: is tenth in the league in receiving EPA. Xavior Worthy 155 00:08:03,160 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 3: and Justin Watson are the only other players on the 156 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 3: Chiefs to have added more than five total EPA and 157 00:08:08,200 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 3: they have a combined fifteen catches this year. I think 158 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:14,880 Speaker 3: without Rashid Rice, this is a bottom five skill group, 159 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 3: especially with Travis Kelcey still not reaching his level of 160 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 3: performance the past several years. This offense has struggled so far, 161 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,560 Speaker 3: it's looked kind of clunky, clunky. They're not as explosive 162 00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 3: as they have been in years past. They rank thirteenth 163 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 3: in EPA per play, but they're third and success rate, 164 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:38,559 Speaker 3: So I think the floor for the Chiefs continues to 165 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 3: stay high as long as you have Patrick Mahomes your 166 00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 3: floor is going to be high, and we've seen him 167 00:08:43,640 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 3: in years past with a depleted skill group still carry 168 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 3: the Chiefs to a win. But I'm with you and Ericson. 169 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:55,880 Speaker 3: I think the Saints are the play here and have 170 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:57,840 Speaker 3: a really good chance to pull off the upset. 171 00:08:58,960 --> 00:08:59,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. 172 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to go a little, you know, 173 00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: one unit on the upset on the money line, but 174 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:07,960 Speaker 1: then maybe heavier on the points with the New Orleans Saints. 175 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:09,880 Speaker 1: I think that's the way I feel the most comfortable 176 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 1: approaching this game right now. But especially with that buy 177 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,199 Speaker 1: staring them in the face next week, it just feels 178 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: like maybe just a little gas is out of that tank. 179 00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:20,000 Speaker 1: They're getting by on fumes right now. It feels like 180 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 1: a little bit and you kind of saw that against 181 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: the Chargers, all right. Last game here Patriots Dolphins, Gross, 182 00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: I can't believe you want to talk about this one, Zam. 183 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: The Dolphins just miserable again. A big missed opportunity for 184 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 1: a big play there with Tyreek Hill. Huntley wasn't exactly 185 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,559 Speaker 1: lighting the world on fire. I know it's only a 186 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 1: week with the playbook, but still in the Patriots one 187 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:43,360 Speaker 1: of the worst offenses in the league. So it's hard 188 00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:48,000 Speaker 1: to set an under number here. That's and I feel 189 00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:49,959 Speaker 1: comfortable with, Like how low do we go before we 190 00:09:50,040 --> 00:09:52,760 Speaker 1: start to go? Now, man, I'm uncomfortable with this number. 191 00:09:52,800 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 1: But what's your take on this game? And what are 192 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,679 Speaker 1: you seeing that you think people should be paying attention to. 193 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, look, you said gross, but I've learned you appreciate 194 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: every single game we've got in the NFL. By mid March, 195 00:10:03,160 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 3: you're going to be wishing we had a Patriots versus 196 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 3: Dolphins matchup on a Sunday afternoon. But this line has 197 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 3: pretty much been a pick them since it opened. It 198 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 3: looks like the Patriots are are flavor favored, not flavored 199 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:23,559 Speaker 3: slightly now in the market. The big question on the 200 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:26,960 Speaker 3: Dolphins side is whether they continue to roll with Tyler Huntley. 201 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 3: It seems like that'll be the case. Mike McDaniel had 202 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:32,760 Speaker 3: some some decent things to say about him and his 203 00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:36,959 Speaker 3: performance on Monday night. On the New England side of 204 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,360 Speaker 3: the ball, they continue to deal with several injuries on 205 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,640 Speaker 3: the offensive line. Their center David Andrews left Sunday's game 206 00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 3: with a shoulder injury. Kayden Wallace, who was filling in 207 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,960 Speaker 3: for Venerian Lowe at left tackle for the past two 208 00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 3: games was using crutches on Sunday after the after the game. 209 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 3: This was already one of the league's worst offensive line, 210 00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 3: so realistically, it's not a major downgrade to be going 211 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 3: to your second, third, or fourth replacement player, but the 212 00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 3: continuous mixing and matching on the offensive line is terrible. 213 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 3: We know that continuity on the offensive line is huge 214 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:17,439 Speaker 3: for at least maintaining a floor in an office excuse me, 215 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,920 Speaker 3: an offense. And now they'll face a Dolphins team that 216 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 3: has the eleventh highest pressure rate in the league. Again, 217 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,319 Speaker 3: you said the total is low. I think it was 218 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:32,199 Speaker 3: thirty six and a half if I'm remembering correctly. Honestly, 219 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,680 Speaker 3: like the under in this game is probably the play 220 00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 3: because the Dolphins are the league's worst offense right now 221 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 3: and really pushing the bill on. You know, how valuable 222 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 3: is too? How much influence does Mike McDaniel have. And 223 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,000 Speaker 3: then on the Patriots side, they I mean, they're one 224 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:56,479 Speaker 3: of the worst teams in the league. 225 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 2: So no offensive line. Yeah, it's just it's a disaster. 226 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:01,199 Speaker 2: App by the way, is what I'm seeing is the 227 00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 2: best number on VP right now. 228 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 1: So get it while they getting's good, folks, The longer 229 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:07,959 Speaker 1: people have this there this, the more they're gonna hate it. 230 00:12:08,160 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 1: All right, Before we get to a look into the future, 231 00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 1: just a quick reminder too. If you're talking about, you know, 232 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: looking at potentially betting this Patriots Miami Dolphins under I 233 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: encourage you to look at some of the systems that 234 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: we have over in the Betting Pros app too. Just 235 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: a quick reminder about the betting systems. It'll tell you, 236 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,080 Speaker 1: you know, how good you are a betting unders. It'll 237 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: start to look at some of the tracks of you know, 238 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: how does the you know, the Patriots offense go after 239 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 1: a loss? How to the trend line potentially for the 240 00:12:38,480 --> 00:12:40,640 Speaker 1: Miami Dolphin. All these things that are going in that 241 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: wrong direction here for both of these teams you can 242 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: use to your advantage. To Sam's point and using the 243 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:48,880 Speaker 1: betting systems, it's a great way to track and understand 244 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: where the trend lines are and what's going on and 245 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,319 Speaker 1: then make you a better better which is what we're 246 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 1: trying to do here at Betting Pros. All right, next 247 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: thing here is a look into the future. Last week 248 00:12:57,880 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 1: we talked about Josh Allen, MVP I'm still in that. 249 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 1: I know they got destroyed by the Ravens, but Derek 250 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: Henry's not winning MVP. It's going to be a quarterback. 251 00:13:06,280 --> 00:13:08,880 Speaker 1: We'll see as time goes on. I think Jordan Love, 252 00:13:08,920 --> 00:13:11,079 Speaker 1: by the way, fascinating going into Sunday's action, he was 253 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: plus forty five hundred. I haven't looked at seeing what 254 00:13:13,960 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 1: that number is this morning out of curiosity. But let's 255 00:13:17,000 --> 00:13:19,080 Speaker 1: talk about the NFC East we teased at the top. 256 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: We talked about the Commanders, the Cowboys so far sluggish 257 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: to start the year, the Eagles having injuries, perfect time 258 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:27,920 Speaker 1: for a buye for them, they need it, Hurts has 259 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 1: become a turnover machine. And then of course the Giants 260 00:13:30,480 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 1: while they're the Giants. So your thoughts on the NFC 261 00:13:33,760 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 1: East and what looks like right now? 262 00:13:35,200 --> 00:13:39,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, you mentioned the Giants. They're sixty to one to 263 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,959 Speaker 3: win the division. I believe believe is last of any 264 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,839 Speaker 3: team in any division right now. But I want to 265 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:47,840 Speaker 3: go team by team here real quick. So the Eagles 266 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 3: are our current favorites. They're plus one ten to win 267 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 3: the division right now, but they're one bad loss away 268 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:00,560 Speaker 3: from possibly getting rid of this coaching staff again. Fortunately, 269 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 3: have a week five by to get healthier, hopefully get 270 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:08,559 Speaker 3: both DeVante Smith and aj Brown back. On the other 271 00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:12,199 Speaker 3: side of the bye, the Cowboys sitting at plus two forty. 272 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 3: Their offense is sputtering because they can't get production outside 273 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 3: of Cdee Lamb. This was a concern I had going 274 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 3: into the season. They just didn't have playmakers outside of Lamb, 275 00:14:23,720 --> 00:14:25,960 Speaker 3: who raises the floor a little bit, but they don't 276 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: have that ceiling. The defense is down tremendously. They're likely 277 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 3: without Michael Parsons in week five and it could be longer. 278 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:36,920 Speaker 3: DeMarcus Lawrence is expected to go on injured reserve, and 279 00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 3: those two have been holding the defense down a little bit, 280 00:14:42,240 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 3: even if they haven't performed very well overall. And then 281 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 3: you have Washington. We talked about them at the top 282 00:14:49,520 --> 00:14:52,720 Speaker 3: of the show. They have current offensive rookie of the 283 00:14:52,800 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 3: Year Jane Daniels, leading this offense to historical rates. But 284 00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 3: to put some cool water on them, they have faced 285 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 3: two of the bottom five defenses in their last two games. 286 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:06,280 Speaker 3: I think how long Jaden Daniels can stay healthy is 287 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 3: a question. You know, we saw with Anthony Richardson taking 288 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 3: those hits not sliding. It can be a concern, and 289 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:18,440 Speaker 3: those hits start to compound. Excuse me, compound. Like I said, 290 00:15:18,520 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 3: their defense did show signs of life last week. I 291 00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 3: think as dan Quinn starts to get more comfortable with 292 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 3: this defense, it can improve. But they still rank dead 293 00:15:30,080 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 3: last in EPA per play allowed. So this isn't a 294 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 3: market I really want to buy into right now. I 295 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 3: think the way it's priced is pretty fair. I leave 296 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 3: it to the I think this is the Eagles division 297 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:47,240 Speaker 3: to lose, just because when healthy, they are the most 298 00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 3: talented team in the division. And I just think, you know, 299 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:56,080 Speaker 3: despite some of the issues they've had, they still have 300 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,640 Speaker 3: a chance to win it. But at close to even money, 301 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:03,520 Speaker 3: I don't want to buy them right now. And again 302 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 3: Dallas has its flaws. Washington, I think you're buying high, 303 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:12,320 Speaker 3: which I don't necessarily want to do in a division 304 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 3: winner market right now. 305 00:16:14,400 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 2: No, it makes a lot of sense. 306 00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: You know, you mentioned those Cowboys injuries that they're dealing 307 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:21,280 Speaker 1: with on the defensive side. It's one of the reasons 308 00:16:21,280 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 1: why I think this week is very interesting for the 309 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,280 Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers. I think they can bounce back and get 310 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:29,560 Speaker 1: another w here with the way Fields has played and potentially. 311 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:31,520 Speaker 1: Now they've got some offensive line issues on their own 312 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: obviously too, and they just lost a player for the year. 313 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 1: But still that game, that game feels like another one 314 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: of these like classic Steelers primetime unders to me, where 315 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 1: everyone's gonna be so excited at all, it's this marquee 316 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: matchup and. 317 00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 2: Then it's like sixteen thirteen that we're all miserable. 318 00:16:47,000 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 1: Let's talk about some of the key numbers they're gonna 319 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: drive week five, and let's start with the Bills defense, 320 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: because you've been doing some homework on them obviously last 321 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,320 Speaker 1: week lots of your heart to give it up to 322 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, just a few. But this week, in the 323 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: upcoming matchup they've got here, the Bills have to have 324 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 1: a short memory here and turn the page because they've 325 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:11,800 Speaker 1: got another tough matchup ahead of them here with the 326 00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 1: Houston Texans and again another game on the road. So 327 00:17:14,800 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: what are the numbers we're looking at in this contest? 328 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 3: Are the Bills d So the Bills defense is a 329 00:17:20,840 --> 00:17:24,720 Speaker 3: pretty big run funnel right now. They're allowing the third 330 00:17:24,840 --> 00:17:29,960 Speaker 3: highest EPA per carry but also allowing the seventh lowest 331 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 3: EPA per drop back. And I think we saw a 332 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:38,359 Speaker 3: Sunday night. What a team with the lead against the 333 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 3: Bills can do is they can continue to run the ball, 334 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:46,480 Speaker 3: target the weakness of this Bill's defense, and for the 335 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 3: first couple of games the Bills have well, I guess, 336 00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:52,960 Speaker 3: save the first game where they were down against the Cardinals, 337 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:55,399 Speaker 3: They've gotten off to hot starts. They've been able to 338 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,160 Speaker 3: get those leads, and then teams are forced to pass 339 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 3: against them. They're able to rush, the pass are extremely well. 340 00:18:04,080 --> 00:18:07,200 Speaker 3: And so now they get this Texans team that is 341 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 3: much stronger passing the ball with CJ. Stroud and all 342 00:18:11,880 --> 00:18:16,080 Speaker 3: those weapons. I don't know that the Texans necessarily have 343 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 3: the chops in the running game to take advantage of 344 00:18:19,640 --> 00:18:22,280 Speaker 3: this run funnel defense that the Bills have. We'll see 345 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 3: if Joe Mixon is back, but even with him in 346 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:27,680 Speaker 3: the hot start he got off to, I don't know 347 00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:30,119 Speaker 3: that that'll be the case. So I think this is 348 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,880 Speaker 3: a potential live betting angle as well. If you see 349 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 3: the Bills get down against a team and are facing 350 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 3: a team that has a solid rushing attack, then basically 351 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 3: targeting whoever their opponent is on the spread and thinking 352 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 3: that they'll be able to continue to have success. So again, 353 00:18:50,880 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 3: it's a big dynamic here, and I think it's better 354 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:56,719 Speaker 3: for the Bills overall that they have a better pass defense. 355 00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 3: Even though passing rates are lower across the league, passing 356 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 3: is still more efficient. So just something I'm looking into 357 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 3: as matchups come up for the Bills the next couple 358 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:08,680 Speaker 3: of weeks. 359 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,520 Speaker 1: All right, certainly something keep an eye on, that's for sure. 360 00:19:12,720 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the next set of stats here. The 361 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: Broncos defense, which played incredibly well, actually played well last 362 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: couple of weeks. But that game against the Jets. I 363 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: know the weather was an issue. We can make all 364 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:25,480 Speaker 1: the excuses you want, but at the end of the day, 365 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:31,199 Speaker 1: that Denver Bronco defense carried that team to a victory 366 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 1: on their backs and held the Jets offense without a touchdown. 367 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:38,320 Speaker 2: So what do you see in their future this week? 368 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:43,399 Speaker 1: Again another matchup where you have to worry about whatever 369 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: the offense is going to give you, so the defense 370 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: has to give you more than you could ask for. 371 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 2: But the Las Vegas Raiders a team that has. 372 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,480 Speaker 1: Been you know, struggle bus for the most part offensively 373 00:19:53,560 --> 00:19:55,440 Speaker 1: this year, and look, frankly should have lost last week. 374 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:57,240 Speaker 2: We all know that. So when you looking at Denver 375 00:19:57,320 --> 00:19:58,520 Speaker 2: this week, what stands out to you? 376 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:03,440 Speaker 3: Yes, the Broncos defense. When I looked at some of 377 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,399 Speaker 3: the staffs for the first time this week, I was 378 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:09,159 Speaker 3: shocked to see how well they've rated out so far. 379 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 3: They're first in EPA per play and success rate allowed first, 380 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 3: an explosive pass rate allowed first, an EPA per drive allowed. 381 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 3: They are blitzing at one of the higher rates in 382 00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 3: the league, but they're still They're getting pressure at a 383 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:27,639 Speaker 3: pretty good clip right now as well. So far the season, 384 00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:31,960 Speaker 3: they faced the Seahawks, the Steelers, the Buccaneers, and the Jets, 385 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 3: But across a four week sample, I think we should 386 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 3: consider that it's not just the teams that they faced 387 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 3: that is leading to the Broncos having success on defense. 388 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 3: To start, DVOA, which takes opponents into account, has them 389 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,840 Speaker 3: ranked as the seventh best defense on the year, and 390 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 3: their next four opponents shouldn't give them much trouble either. 391 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 3: They faced the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Panthers, so it 392 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 3: is a tough team to gauge offensively, though, because they're 393 00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 3: bottom five in almost every efficiency metric right now. It's 394 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 3: very similar to the Jets from last year. Who had 395 00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 3: an incredible defense but could barely move the ball on offense. 396 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,959 Speaker 3: So obviously lines are adjusting for this dynamic, and they 397 00:21:21,080 --> 00:21:24,320 Speaker 3: have an incredibly low total in the game that they're 398 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:28,680 Speaker 3: playing against the Raiders this week. But I think in 399 00:21:28,800 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 3: those instances I would rather target their opponents team total under. 400 00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,520 Speaker 3: I'm not sure what it is off the top of 401 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 3: my head for the Raiders this week, but again, if 402 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 3: the Raiders are missing DeVante Adams again, then I certainly 403 00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 3: think the under on the Raiders team total depending on 404 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:48,640 Speaker 3: the line is in play. 405 00:21:49,800 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 1: All right, last one to get to here, and then 406 00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 1: we'll give the Survivor Pool pick of the week, Trevor Lawrence. 407 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: Look, the numbers are not very good. 408 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 1: We did a comparison on the show the other day 409 00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: that I was on on Fantasy Pros to him and 410 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, and it's eerily similar so far for their career, 411 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: with Jones played a couple more games. But the interception 412 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: of the touchdowns are kind of right there in line. 413 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 1: So was the passer ratings, so it was the QBR 414 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: like all this stuff. So clearly Lawrence has struggled. Clearly 415 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 1: things are not going well. This is a desperate kind 416 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 1: of situation ohing four, you're playing for your season. I 417 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 1: think that makes the Jags a little dangerous this week. 418 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: But Sam, what have you seen so far in the 419 00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:28,960 Speaker 1: numbers that we should be paying attention to when it 420 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,240 Speaker 1: comes to Trevor Lawres this week? 421 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:32,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, so, I know we talked about this game a 422 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 3: little bit earlier, mostly on the Cult side of things, 423 00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 3: But want to talk about a specific matchup advantage that 424 00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:43,080 Speaker 3: I think the jaguarres finally have. So far this season, 425 00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,960 Speaker 3: they've played the eleventh, fifth, twenty second, and second best 426 00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:49,960 Speaker 3: teams in pressure rate and now they play a Cult 427 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,440 Speaker 3: team that ranks twenty first in pressure rate. They could 428 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,560 Speaker 3: be without Quitty pay again this week. Taekwon Lewis, another 429 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 3: defensive end, suffered a calf injury against the Steelers, though 430 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,080 Speaker 3: he was able to return to the game. The twenty 431 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 3: second ranked pressure rate defense they faced was the Bills, 432 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 3: and they obviously gave them a lot of trouble on 433 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,960 Speaker 3: Monday Night a couple of weeks ago. But like we 434 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,359 Speaker 3: just talked about, the Bills have been great all around 435 00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:19,320 Speaker 3: as a passing defense. So all that to say, according 436 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:22,240 Speaker 3: to Next Gen Stats, Trevor Lawrence is averaging about point 437 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 3: zero two epa per play without pressure. That's not great, 438 00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,120 Speaker 3: you know, it's not spectacular, but it is much better 439 00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:31,960 Speaker 3: than a negative point six y' one epa per drop 440 00:23:32,040 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 3: back when he is facing pressure. I think there is 441 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:39,560 Speaker 3: a potential that the Jaguars get Evan Ingram back this 442 00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 3: week as well, which would be a huge help to 443 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 3: that offense. So I really like looking at Lawrence's all 444 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 3: passing yards right now, pairing that with some alt spreads 445 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,399 Speaker 3: for the Jaguars as well, I think this could be 446 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 3: a really good spot for Trevor Lawrence in this offense 447 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,000 Speaker 3: to get back on track again a Colts defense that 448 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,119 Speaker 3: has not really played all that spectacularly throughout the season 449 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:11,160 Speaker 3: so far. So again, you're you're getting the Jaguars at 450 00:24:11,400 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 3: their lowest. They are favored by a couple points right now, 451 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:17,959 Speaker 3: but I think extending that out, hoping that they hit 452 00:24:18,080 --> 00:24:21,760 Speaker 3: that tail outcome against the Colts is certainly within range. 453 00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly feels like it is. 454 00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,800 Speaker 1: Indeed, before we get the Survivor Pool picks of the week, 455 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 1: I'm done, by the way, I'm out twice now, so hey, 456 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 1: you know, more excuses. I don't get the buy back 457 00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 1: any of their time. Stupid Jets could not handle their 458 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: business against the Broncos. The Broncos and bo Nicks, I mean, 459 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 1: just an embarrassment at quarterback and you still can't beat 460 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: him in your own building, Boo. But anyway, don't forget 461 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 1: to subscribe to the channel too. Again, make sure you 462 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 1: comment below tell us some of the stats that you're 463 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: looking for in week five that I've got you excited 464 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 1: to bet. But also don't forget to turn on that 465 00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:58,639 Speaker 1: notifications bell to so you don't miss any of the 466 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 1: live streams. You don't miss any of the more it's 467 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: here on the channel because coming up this week we 468 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 1: got the Prop Show, we got the Best Bets and 469 00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football which we've been crushing Bag and I 470 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,399 Speaker 1: the last couple weeks, so don't miss any of that 471 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: as well. Before we get to our Survivor picks four 472 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,800 Speaker 1: this week, you can compete for eleven two hundred and 473 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 1: fifty dollars of grand prize winnings in Splash sports Second 474 00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: Chance Survivor pool. God knows I could use the second 475 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 1: chance in my Survivor pools. You can enter now though, 476 00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: for twenty five dollars at Betting Pros dot com slash 477 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,640 Speaker 1: splash again. That's betting pros dot com slash splash before 478 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 1: one pm Eastern on October sixth. All right, Sam, here 479 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,240 Speaker 1: we go back again. Maybe the Chicago Bears are in 480 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,200 Speaker 1: play this week for you. They seem to somehow find 481 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 1: a way to win. Maybe they could beat the Carolina 482 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: Panthers in their own building. Perhaps despite the shortcomings of 483 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,239 Speaker 1: Caleb Williams. I don't know where you're going for your 484 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,280 Speaker 1: Survivor Pool pick for Week five. 485 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a tough week because as it stands now, 486 00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 3: there are just three games with a spread of more 487 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 3: five points. We've got the tart or excuse me, the 488 00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 3: Chief against the Saints suite. We talked earlier about why 489 00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 3: I'm staying away from that particular game. We have the 490 00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,440 Speaker 3: forty nine ers hosting the Cardinals, but I used the 491 00:26:09,920 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 3: foreign nine ers this past week and they got through 492 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 3: that with ease against the Patriots. So I'm going to 493 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 3: go to this last team, which is the Seahawks favored 494 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 3: against the Giants. I think, coming off of a disappointing 495 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,280 Speaker 3: loss last night where their defense got hammered a ton 496 00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:31,040 Speaker 3: by the Lions, they should have more success against Daniel Jones, 497 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 3: especially if the Giants are without Malite Neighbors who's still 498 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 3: in concussion protocol. I think this is a great week 499 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 3: for the Seahawks to bounce back get a win at home. 500 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 3: I think another one, another Survivor pick. If you're feeling frisky, 501 00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 3: it's the Washington Commanders. We talked about them a lot 502 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,359 Speaker 3: on this show so far. The Browns defense is probably 503 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 3: going to be their toughest defensive matchup so far this year. 504 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 3: But I think that defense is also it's not what 505 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,439 Speaker 3: it was last year by any means, and this Browns 506 00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 3: offense is one that this Commander's defense should be able 507 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 3: to shut down. So if you have, if you're in 508 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 3: a Survivor pool with multiple entries still going around, that 509 00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 3: props to you because that's very impressive. But I think 510 00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 3: the Seahawks and Commanders as a potential leverage play, especially 511 00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 3: if you think that Daniels gets hurt later on in 512 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:33,280 Speaker 3: the season. Now would probably be the time to use them. 513 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, certainly makes sense. 514 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:39,480 Speaker 1: I love the Cleveland Browns find ways to lose games, Sam, 515 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: I think that's really what it's all about. 516 00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:41,880 Speaker 2: Sam. 517 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,760 Speaker 1: Hobbin, always amazing to talk to you. Yet the numbers 518 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,400 Speaker 1: we need to know for Week five in the NFL, 519 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 1: and don't forget. Also, everybody check out Sam's work over 520 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com. He's got all of the latest out 521 00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:56,159 Speaker 1: there too, so check out more deep dives into the 522 00:27:56,280 --> 00:27:58,200 Speaker 1: players of the teams that we want to make some 523 00:27:58,280 --> 00:27:59,040 Speaker 1: money on this week. 524 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:00,840 Speaker 2: That'll do it for us, but the story of the 525 00:28:00,880 --> 00:28:03,480 Speaker 2: game goes on for Sam. Hopin. I'm Joey P. We'll 526 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 2: see you next time. Kids, enjoy week five. 527 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,240 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 528 00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:11,639 Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 529 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:15,040 Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 530 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 531 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 532 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.