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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. It feels like the Fed believe

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Speaker 1: that they're going to keep rates down here to stimulate

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Speaker 1: more business investment. What we'll see is a much longer

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Speaker 1: workout process of this excessive debt and a much slower

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Speaker 1: growth cycle in emerging market country. And the most influential

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Speaker 1: factor in a purchase is still the store. There's a

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Speaker 1: myth that stores are dying. It's not stores that are dying,

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Speaker 1: it's the middle class. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the

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Speaker 1: world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning.

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Speaker 1: It is eight o'clock on Wall Street, eight o'clock in Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. Where they're telling the damage from last night's

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Speaker 1: primaries around the country, mostly in the Northeast. We'll talk

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Speaker 1: about that in a moment. Also, getting ready for Capital's Penguins.

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane is still on vacation. He is resting up

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Speaker 1: to be able to survive that series, and uh we

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Speaker 1: look forward to having him back and discussing the most

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Speaker 1: important issues before the nation, which are who's better Sidney

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Speaker 1: Crosby or Alex Ovechkin. But that I'll have to wait

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Speaker 1: until next week. Francine Laka is with me today and

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Speaker 1: she'll be joining us again in just a moment. We

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Speaker 1: are brought to you by Accounting Tax Advisory. As economic

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Speaker 1: policy changes, so do business decisions. Speak to the experts

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Speaker 1: at Cone Resnick for the forward thinking advice you need.

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Speaker 1: Find out more at Cone Resnick dot com. Markets not

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Speaker 1: doing so well this morning. S and P futures off

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Speaker 1: by five points, DAL futures by thirty nine. Disappointing earnings

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Speaker 1: news from Apple last night set the stage for that.

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Speaker 1: Although we've had some better than forecast earnings from a

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Speaker 1: lot of companies this morning Big earnings Day, as well

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Speaker 1: as the Fed decision this afternoon. The folks in the

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Speaker 1: political world are all now racing away from the northeast

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Speaker 1: catch planes to Indiana, where the next round of primaries

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Speaker 1: is for the Republicans likely to be decisive. Many people say,

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Speaker 1: Vin Weber is with this. He is a former Republican

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Speaker 1: congressman from Minnesota. And remember in the Project for the

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Speaker 1: New American Century, um is still an influential figure in Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. Politics. And I have to ask you, uh, then,

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Speaker 1: last night Donald Trump ran the table in the five

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Speaker 1: states voting in the Northeast. How depressed are Republicans in

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Speaker 1: Washington today, Well, they're somewhere between very depressed and very resigned.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Donald Trump went a sweeping victory last night,

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Speaker 1: and uh, it's it's hard to deny that he's on

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Speaker 1: the road to the nomination. It's not it's not over,

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Speaker 1: but it's it's it looks the end looks to be

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Speaker 1: in sight. Um, I think you know, after the defeat,

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Speaker 1: his defeat in Wisconsin, people said, well, maybe the momentum

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Speaker 1: is shifted in this race and he's gonna be on

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Speaker 1: a declining path and go to Paul welsh Or of

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Speaker 1: the twelve thirty seven delegate city needs. Instead, he came

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Speaker 1: back anyone, bigger than expected in New York and bigger

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Speaker 1: than expected last night. Now you know, we've got a

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Speaker 1: couple of primaries left where things could reverse, but that

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Speaker 1: after reverse pretty dramatically for him to not be the nominee.

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Speaker 1: It's hard to know exactly what he stands for because

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Speaker 1: he keeps changing his positions. But many of the things

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Speaker 1: he has said, uh, don't hue to Republican orthodoxy, and

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Speaker 1: many of the things his supporters complain about are not

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Speaker 1: traditional Republican issues. So where does this leave the party. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that you've you're talking about the thing that

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Speaker 1: needs to be talked about to be Canada. And if

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Speaker 1: there's anything frustrating to me in this race, that's we've this.

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Speaker 1: The narrative about this campaign has been establishment versus anti establishment,

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Speaker 1: insider versus outsider, politician versus non politicians, and we've not

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Speaker 1: talked about the fact that that he departs from what

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party has believed. On trade, He's a protectionist

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Speaker 1: on immigration, he wants to build a wall into Poured

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Speaker 1: eleven million people. On nuclear weapons, he suggested that it

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Speaker 1: might be a good idea to arm for the Japanese

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Speaker 1: and South Korean to develop nuclear weapons. Nuclear non proliferation

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Speaker 1: has been an article of faith for our country for

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Speaker 1: a long time. A lot of very big issues obscured

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Speaker 1: by the fact that we've focused on this drama of

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Speaker 1: insider versus outsider to the exclusion of a discussion of issues.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have to start talking about those issues now.

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Speaker 1: If Trump indeed is going to be the nominee and

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Speaker 1: wants to try to unite the party and and reach

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Speaker 1: out to uh independent and democratic goals to get some

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Speaker 1: support in the fall. Well, you note that despite the

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Speaker 1: fact he's been the front runner for months and months now,

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Speaker 1: he's got a couple of fringe congressman we've endorsed him, uh,

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Speaker 1: Is he going to be able to unite the party?

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, I think that that's a

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Speaker 1: really open question. I think that most of the people,

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Speaker 1: most of the governor, senators, congressman, party leaders want to

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Speaker 1: unite behind whoever is nominated. UM. But you know, contrary

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Speaker 1: to the popular narrative, all these people are not cynical

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Speaker 1: in it for themselves game players there. They believe in

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Speaker 1: politics because they believe in certain principles and some ideas.

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Speaker 1: And if Donald Trump can forge a message that makes

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Speaker 1: Republican leaders across the board comfortable with him, comfortable that

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Speaker 1: he would be the right leader for America, you know,

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Speaker 1: they'll unite behind him. But it's not it's not automatic.

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Speaker 1: I mean, one of the things that that struck me

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Speaker 1: as I listened to all these commentators say, well, Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump has won all the primaries. He's the front runner.

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Speaker 1: Any other front runner in any other election would have

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Speaker 1: been declared the nominee by now, as if it's the

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Speaker 1: fault of those people who have not gotten behind Trump.

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Speaker 1: The real question is, yeah, how come he can win

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Speaker 1: all these primaries and still have so many Republicans thing.

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Speaker 1: I just don't think I can vote for him. It's

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Speaker 1: because of the issues on which he departs from the

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Speaker 1: party's platform, are on which they think he would lead

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Speaker 1: the country in the wrong direction. Will people follow principle?

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Speaker 1: In other words, if he doesn't, you know, ben to

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Speaker 1: the to the views of the party, will people abandon him?

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Speaker 1: Will you know the elected officials of the party abandoned him? Well,

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Speaker 1: I I don't think i'd predict that. I mean, he's

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Speaker 1: going to have assuming the nominee, and let's just clarify

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Speaker 1: it's not quite over yet. But he clearly is on track.

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Speaker 1: He has an opportunity to unite the party. He's got

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Speaker 1: a bunch of experienced people advising him, and they will

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Speaker 1: want to unite the party, and the party wants to

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Speaker 1: be united. They don't want to get No Republican that

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Speaker 1: I know wants to vote for Hillary Clinton or throw

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Speaker 1: away their vote for an independent or write in candidate.

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Speaker 1: But you know, it's it's he's got to do some

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Speaker 1: work to convince people that he is the right leader

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Speaker 1: for our country at a perilous time. This is not

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Speaker 1: a game. I mean, we we've sort of treated this

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Speaker 1: asidential nominating process this year more than ever before in

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Speaker 1: my lifetime. It's kind of a game or in sports event.

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Speaker 1: We have real consequences to this election, for our economy,

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Speaker 1: for America's role in the world, for our trading system,

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Speaker 1: for and and he's got to convince people that he's

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Speaker 1: the right leader in this time. You spent many years

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Speaker 1: in Congress. This isn't a game. Can you imagine Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump as president of the United States? It's pretty tough.

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Speaker 1: I mean I I I listened to him the way

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Speaker 1: that he refers to the people that he's running against,

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Speaker 1: which you know, I guess as part of his game, uh,

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Speaker 1: insulting them and giving him nicknames and things like And

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Speaker 1: it doesn't seem like he's the kind of guy that

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Speaker 1: that could could leave the country, particularly on the world stage.

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Speaker 1: The rest of the world is looking at this with

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Speaker 1: some horror from every experience I've got. But on the

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Speaker 1: other hand, he's a he is a deal maker. He

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Speaker 1: knows how to negotiate and if if he uses those

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Speaker 1: skills to deal with the Congress and with other countries

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Speaker 1: and our negotiations. I suppose it's possible, but he doesn't.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't look to me like like I would expect

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Speaker 1: the leader to look at this point. Um, is there

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Speaker 1: anybody U who is raising their hand to run with

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Speaker 1: him as vice presidential? Kennedy? Uh No, I haven't seen

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Speaker 1: that yet. I'm sure that he'll find a r anyway

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Speaker 1: that he was asked that on a show this morning

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Speaker 1: I was watching, and he says he's thinking about people,

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Speaker 1: but he didn't tip his hand on any on any names. Um.

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Speaker 1: I think that's that's tough. I mean, you you start

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Speaker 1: with all the people that he's insulted in the course

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Speaker 1: of the campaign. That's not easy because if he picked

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Speaker 1: let's let's say he picked Marco Rubio, who I have

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Speaker 1: a lot of respect for, well, he went to the

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Speaker 1: campaign calling him little Marco. Don't we think the Democrats

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Speaker 1: will remind the voters aroount the Stall campaign that that's

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Speaker 1: what Donald Trump said about his running mate or or

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Speaker 1: Jeb Bush, who I think is a marvelous public serving,

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Speaker 1: would be a great would have been a great present,

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Speaker 1: low energy Jeb Bush that's what Trump called him throughout

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Speaker 1: the campaign. It's hard for him to pick somebody that

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Speaker 1: he's called the derogatory name throughout the campaign. And then

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Speaker 1: there are some of these big issues, you know, on

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Speaker 1: on immigration and our treatment of immigrants. You know, there

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Speaker 1: are a lot of the people that would make fine

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Speaker 1: running mates have very strong and diametrically opposing views. So

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Speaker 1: it's not gonna be easy for him. Is the running

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Speaker 1: mate gonna make a difference in this campaign or is

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Speaker 1: it really going to be all about the nominee? Uh?

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Speaker 1: The running mate usually does not make a difference. Maybe

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Speaker 1: in the past, Uh, the politics was different Lyndon Johnson

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Speaker 1: could deliver the state of Texas for John Kennedy in

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Speaker 1: the nineteen sixty for instance. I think what the choice

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Speaker 1: of running mate does this time? His adds to the

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Speaker 1: sum total of knowledge that people think they have of

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Speaker 1: the candidate. It's not that they're going to vote for

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Speaker 1: you because of the running mate or anything like. They'll

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Speaker 1: look at you said, well, this is the first big

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Speaker 1: decision you've had to make as the potential president the

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Speaker 1: United States. Did you make a good decision? And then

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Speaker 1: and and so in that regard, you know, it can

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Speaker 1: be a plus or a minus, depending on whether or

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Speaker 1: not the voters think that you exercise good and sound judgment.

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Speaker 1: Let's continue our conversation about the US presidential campaign. We'll

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Speaker 1: get into the down ballot races as well. Then, Webber

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Speaker 1: is where this former Republican congressman from Minnesota now the

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Speaker 1: co chairman and partner of Mercury Public Affairs. Well, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't seem that the political campaign is in the markets.

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Speaker 1: Earnings are the fan is right now as ap features

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Speaker 1: off by four points, slightly better than it was a

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Speaker 1: two tenths decline. Attend your note, yield one point nine.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance on Bloomberg Radio Worldwide. Time now

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Speaker 1: to check in with Michael Barr and get the latest

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Speaker 1: world of national headlines. Michael, Mike, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is calling himself the presumptive nominee. Trump swept

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Speaker 1: to all five states and yesterday's northeast primaries Hillary Clinton

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Speaker 1: one four out of five Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware.

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Speaker 1: Clinton's rival Bernie Sanders one, Rhode Island. Paris attacks suspects

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Speaker 1: Salah Obdeslam is now in French custodate and will go

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Speaker 1: before investigating judges for eventual charges. Islam was arrested in

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Speaker 1: Belgium last month after four months on the run. So

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Speaker 1: I'm a human rights activists Harry Wu has died, who

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Speaker 1: a former political prisoner, exposed abuses in China's prison labor

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Speaker 1: camp system. Harry Wu was seventy nine Global News twenty

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Speaker 1: four hours a day, powered by our twenty four hundred

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Speaker 1: journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from around

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Speaker 1: the world. I'm Michael bar Mike. Thank you, Michael Well.

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Speaker 1: And when you talk about central banks, you're talking about

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Speaker 1: currencies and the dollar ahead of the today's set decision

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Speaker 1: is trading lower Stone by a tenth of a percent

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Speaker 1: of dollar index N four eight. Full coverage of the

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Speaker 1: FET decision two p m. Here on Bloomberg Radio. The

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Speaker 1: News Update brought to you by Bentley University. What do

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Speaker 1: tying up the finances at Converse and managing asset allocations

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Speaker 1: at JP Morgan have in common? A business degree from

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Speaker 1: Bentley University? Because business is everywhere. Prepare here Global Business

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Speaker 1: News twenty four hours a day, if Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Radio plus Mobile act and on your radio. This

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Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kerin Moscow. US

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Speaker 1: dock indise futures are falling after Apple's first sales dropping

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Speaker 1: more than a decade. Let's go to the First Word

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Speaker 1: breaking news desk for today's morning call. Here's Bill Maloney.

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Speaker 1: Good morning Bill, Good morning Karen. That's right us. You

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Speaker 1: just remain under pressure today as Apple weighs on the

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Speaker 1: NASDAK doubt future currently lowered by thirty six points, says

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Speaker 1: BE dropped five and NAZAC future declined by forty eight.

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Speaker 1: The US ten yield at one. On the US economic front,

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Speaker 1: A center claw depending home sales at ten thirty, energy inventories,

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Speaker 1: and at two o'clock, the fo M c rate decision.

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Speaker 1: After the bells night, Apple post its first coally revenue

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Speaker 1: drop in more than a decade. Shares it down eight

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Speaker 1: percent pre market e Babe beat, Buffalo wollowings CUTPS views,

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Speaker 1: and twitter Q revenue trailed lowest estimates. Some of the

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Speaker 1: Arlands highlights this morning Anthem, General Dynamics, United Technologies, and

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Speaker 1: Comcast all beat w R Grace was mixed, northup, Grumman

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Speaker 1: boosted its forecast, and Boweling EPs missed and deal news

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Speaker 1: The Wallshet General report that Comcast is in discussions to

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Speaker 1: buy dream Works. Druma shares up eighteen percent pre market. Finally,

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Speaker 1: some of your walsheet upgrades and downgrades. GF Blue raised

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Speaker 1: out performer, Cowen, Twitter cut down perform at Bank of America,

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Speaker 1: also cut to neutral at JP. Morgan Michael Cores raised

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Speaker 1: to avoid a Piper National Oil raised to avoid a

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley and Striker raised to buy over at stern

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Speaker 1: A g Live from the first breaking news that's gone.

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Speaker 1: Bill Maloney care, thanks Bai able to hear live breaking

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Speaker 1: news over your Bloomberg type squawk go on your terminal.

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Speaker 1: Let's ask you you a w K go and that's

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Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash. Mike and Francine, thank you very much.

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Speaker 1: Kara Mosco, Well, this is Bloomberg surveillance on Michael McKee

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Speaker 1: along with Francine Lach when they have fixed the microphone

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Speaker 1: in London, we Google Emo Marconi came over and personally

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Speaker 1: to Caraman. We were brought to you by Investco explore

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Speaker 1: what high conviction investing means to Investco's value equity managers.

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Speaker 1: Watched the conversation at investco dot com slash Interactive. We're

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Speaker 1: talking politics in the United States with Vin Webber, the

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Speaker 1: former Republican congressman and co chairman and partner at Mercury

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Speaker 1: Public Affairs. Vin, you said just before we went to

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Speaker 1: break that no Republican wants to vote what it wants

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Speaker 1: to vote for Hillary Clinton, but h the Koch Brothers

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Speaker 1: seem to be considering it, and they're among the most

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Speaker 1: concer derivative Republicans out there, the last people you would

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Speaker 1: think that would endorse Hillary Clinton. Well, I saw that

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Speaker 1: that report, and the Cooks didn't exactly say they would

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Speaker 1: support Hillary really just said they were open to it.

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Speaker 1: But I think that that ought to be a warning

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Speaker 1: signal or something of the Mr Trump that there's a

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Speaker 1: lot of Republicans that just don't know. You know. For instance,

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Speaker 1: about a month ago, I was watching one of the

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Speaker 1: cable shows and I saw General Michael Hayden, somebody whom

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Speaker 1: I have enormous respect as the full of Director of

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Speaker 1: National Intelligence and CIA director, and they tried to get

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Speaker 1: him to say who he was for for president. At

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Speaker 1: that time he was neutral. He's now endorsed John Kasy,

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Speaker 1: but at that time he was, and they pushed and

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Speaker 1: hired and said, well, what if it were Trump versus Hillary?

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Speaker 1: He didn't want to answer. Finally he said, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: in my little zone, my narrow zone. His words were,

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Speaker 1: Hillary would be better than Trump. Excuse me. General Hayden's

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Speaker 1: narrow zone, as he puts it, is national security. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you come to the conclusion that the other party's

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Speaker 1: candidate is better on national security than your candidate, you

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Speaker 1: have to at least think about it. And that's I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying that that's where most Republicans will come down.

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Speaker 1: But these are not just personality traits that we're talking about.

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Speaker 1: Their big issues that Donald Trump has to explain to us,

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Speaker 1: how he's not going to wreck the world trading system,

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Speaker 1: how he's not going to encourage the proliferation of nuclear

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Speaker 1: weapons across the planet, uh and and and a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of other issues. If he can do that, no

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Speaker 1: Republican will want to vote for Hillary Clinton, because the

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party, in the course of this campaign, pushed by

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Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, is effectively becoming the American Socialist Party. But

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Speaker 1: there there has to be a discussion of the big

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Speaker 1: issues that the country has got to confront, and not

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Speaker 1: just anger about where we are right, But Congressman, how

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Speaker 1: can Donald Trump actually become believable in foreign policy? So

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Speaker 1: he's going to use a prompter, he'll probably be briefed.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, I sit here

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Speaker 1: in London and it must be the same for about

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Speaker 1: six of all Americans. All I hear is Mexico and

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Speaker 1: walls being built. Well, you know, you're right that he

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Speaker 1: hasn't been very specific about any issues except deporting people,

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Speaker 1: building a wall, starting trade wards of Mexico and China. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And if you talk to his supporters, many of whom

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Speaker 1: talk privately, said we've you've got to you've gotta come

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Speaker 1: around and get on board, and you raised these issues

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Speaker 1: and they said, well, he doesn't really mean that. That's

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Speaker 1: what just what he had to do to get nominated.

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Speaker 1: And so we're supposed to get behind the candidate for

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Speaker 1: president because he doesn't believe what he's saying. That's allows

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Speaker 1: the reason to support a candidate. But I think that

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Speaker 1: in the course of the next few weeks, you know,

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Speaker 1: his advisors are going to encourage him to change that.

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Speaker 1: And we'll just see. We'll see if he emerges with

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Speaker 1: with strong people giving him advice that all of US

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Speaker 1: can have confidence in Uh. You know, in the two

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Speaker 1: thousand campaign, Governor George W. Bush of Texas made a

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Speaker 1: couple of missteps on foreign policy in the course of

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Speaker 1: the campaign, and they quickly rushed people like Condoleeza Rice

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Speaker 1: and others down to Texas to surround him and show

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Speaker 1: the world he was going to be surrounded by the

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Speaker 1: best foreign policy minds in the Republican Party. And it

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Speaker 1: reassured people if if Trump is going to do things

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Speaker 1: that reassure us that that he's going to be advised

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Speaker 1: by sound thinking people. Uh, you know, he's got a

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Speaker 1: chance to to overcome some of these things. But what

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Speaker 1: he has set up to now is alarming too many people,

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Speaker 1: not just in London but here in America. All Right,

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Speaker 1: suppose it's the Donald versus Hillary. How does the general

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Speaker 1: election campaign play out? Unpredictable? Uh, you know, if there's

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Speaker 1: you can make a good argument that Trump should not

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Speaker 1: be able to win an election like that. He has

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Speaker 1: over disapproval from the Hispanic community, the largest growing demographic

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Speaker 1: in the country. He has not done He's not going

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Speaker 1: to get any percentage of the African American vote. Uh.

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Speaker 1: He does terribly with women, including Republican women. But he

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Speaker 1: has proven in the course of this campaign that he

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Speaker 1: can defy expectations and overcome his negative ratings, and how

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Speaker 1: he will conduct himself is an unknown. I think the

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Speaker 1: Democrats that I talked to, while they feel confident that

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Speaker 1: they can beat him, there's a little edge of concern

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Speaker 1: in their voice because they're not sure what he's going

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Speaker 1: to throw at Hillary Clinton. He's as he threw things

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Speaker 1: at all of his Republican opponents. He should not be

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Speaker 1: able to win this election, but the country is angry. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there's a desire for change, and then sector Clinton does

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Speaker 1: not look like a change candidate. Vin Weber, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much for joining us, and we'll talk to you again.

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Speaker 1: I'm sure as this election campaign unfolds, Donald Trump winning

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Speaker 1: five states last night, Hillary winning four out of five,

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Speaker 1: both that sort of presumptive nominees their parties at the moment.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back here on Bloomberg Surveillance as we get

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Speaker 1: ready for FED Day. Will take a look at the

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Speaker 1: economy next here on Bloomberg Radio Worldwide. Coming up there,

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