WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2021 NFL MegaPod Week 4 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.640 Check it in Man Now Down Man Thursday morning one. 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.200 It is the Beating the Book podcast megapod live from 0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:21.600 the d Our Home. As always here on the show, 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.520 It's Kill Alexander, Mikey Palm, Todd Wishnev Staples at the show. 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.120 Mike Palm, Vice President of Operations and Circus Sports, Derek 0:00:28.160 --> 0:00:30.440 Stevens conciliary, and Todd Wish to have one of the 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:35.880 co stars of course of Showtimes docuseries Action. Gentlemen, thank 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:38.760 you as always for being here and our rotating guests 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:41.960 for the day, my co host on the finest uh 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:44.720 television program. There is you know outside of that Peyton 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:48.040 Manning Eli Manning thing. Uh. It is a primetime action 0:00:48.360 --> 0:00:51.440 is my buddy Matt Brown? How you doing? Matt? Doing well? 0:00:51.520 --> 0:00:54.560 Doing well, feeling good? Coming off of a bounce back 0:00:54.640 --> 0:00:56.680 week in week three after week two is pretty rough, 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.480 so hopefully keep the thing everything going here in week four, 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.960 you had a monster week with teasers galore, as many 0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:05.959 folks did. But you you you you righted the ship. 0:01:06.360 --> 0:01:09.000 I believe we righted the ship on this show. Didn't 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:13.640 we the board Todd or the records? Last week? Yes? Uh? 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:16.920 To give you the records from last week. Everybody had 0:01:16.920 --> 0:01:22.600 a good week, even Gill. Even Gilly had this guy. 0:01:22.840 --> 0:01:25.560 Gilly goes to and one to move the three and six, 0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:28.679 trying to trying to pull things together. I will say this, 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:31.200 Gilly is three and no on teasers, and that's what's 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:33.479 most important, because what person in the right mind were 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.679 better pregame NFL game. You gotta be you gotta be 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:39.920 a crazy person to do that. So Gilly hits three 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:43.160 and no with teasers. Mikey. Mikey goes two and one 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:44.960 to move to five and four. By the way, I 0:01:45.000 --> 0:01:48.040 will say Gil and Mikey were both extremely fortunate to 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.200 get the Arizona Cardinals minus seven and a half. After 0:01:51.920 --> 0:01:54.200 I'll explain it. I'll explain it to you ready with 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:58.880 my explanation, Okay, At thirteen to ten, Mr urban Meyer 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:02.320 handed the ball off a man named Robinson eight times 0:02:02.320 --> 0:02:05.360 in a row, and he literally jammed it down their 0:02:05.400 --> 0:02:09.360 throats to go up n late third quarters, you're down nine, 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.160 laying seven and a half late third quarter in an 0:02:12.240 --> 0:02:15.280 NFL game. You're not supposed to come. Would you like 0:02:15.320 --> 0:02:17.520 to point this out time or should I todd? They 0:02:17.520 --> 0:02:21.280 were gifted a touchdown on that field goal nine yard 0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:25.960 field goal return from wait. I'll give you that great 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.440 wait and then let me finish. Now, late in the game, 0:02:29.440 --> 0:02:33.639 there were two backdoor touchdown possibilities that did not happen. 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.919 All I'll say is Mikey and Gilly are very fortunate people. 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.320 Hashim doesn't hate. Now. I will now go on to 0:02:40.400 --> 0:02:42.920 the record of Mikey's teasers. He is two and one, 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:46.399 not as good as me and Gil and I had 0:02:46.560 --> 0:02:48.720 another two and one to go to six and three 0:02:49.120 --> 0:02:52.560 with some really solid Browns and the New Orleans game 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:55.120 under I only lost the fixed game Green Bay in 0:02:55.480 --> 0:02:58.560 San Francisco moved to six and three and two and 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:02.239 oh on teasers to be in first place as all. 0:03:02.320 --> 0:03:04.160 As well with the world. I thought you're three and 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:07.200 o on teasers. I am three. You know you're two 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.359 and one. Me and Gill are three and on teasers. 0:03:09.440 --> 0:03:11.360 Mikey has two and one on teessers. You just said 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:15.440 too and now, okay, so give me credit there. I'm sorry, Matt, 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.359 Sorry you had to sit through all that. Apologies. Hey, 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.920 I'm I'd like to see where I'm where I'm stepping 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:25.480 into here, alright, Circle Circle Million Circus Survivor updates sir, 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:28.919 you know one entry is fifteen and oh and this 0:03:29.000 --> 0:03:31.799 is the final week of the first quarter. Wow, one 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:34.639 singular entry. We've never we went back and looked, we've 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:40.160 never had an entry go fifteen and over any plus 0:03:40.200 --> 0:03:42.800 hears of doing this this contest. So he I think 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:45.280 he leads ten or eleven other people at fourteen and 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:49.440 one and then in survivor not much carnage. This past 0:03:49.480 --> 0:03:55.000 week we went from to ninety seventeen. We lost six, 0:03:56.360 --> 0:04:00.360 five of who failed to submit a pick. Uh twenty 0:04:00.400 --> 0:04:03.640 eight giants. Todd Wishnev had the Ravens and it was 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:07.160 awesome watching him text through that final sequence. By the way, 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:09.760 I just want to say I was I was having 0:04:09.800 --> 0:04:13.520 flashbacks to last year when my good friend Gilly Iceman 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.119 had the New York Jets against the Raiders. He needed 0:04:17.120 --> 0:04:20.920 the Raiders. I had the Raiders, right, he had the Raiders. 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:23.080 The Raiders had one last play from the forty five 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:26.280 yard line, absolutely no chance to win the game, absolutely 0:04:26.320 --> 0:04:30.640 no chance until the Jets decided to allow a very 0:04:30.680 --> 0:04:34.640 fast man behind the defense scored the touchdown and Gilly 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:38.240 wag crazy. Now I hadn't even crazier scenario. I think 0:04:38.240 --> 0:04:41.600 it wasn't even crazier, I really do which was which 0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:45.240 was a lower wind probability? Your final play for the 0:04:45.279 --> 0:04:48.479 Hail Mary or whatever, or fourth and nineteen from the 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:50.840 sixteen with thirty six seconds and no time outs. Well, 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:54.200 the fourth and nineteen no timeouts missed the lay of 0:04:54.279 --> 0:04:57.440 game penalty sixty six yard field has never been done 0:04:57.480 --> 0:04:59.279 before the history of the league. That bounces off the 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:03.600 crossbar and goes said, I think you probably win, Greg, 0:05:03.600 --> 0:05:05.560 will you have zero covered? Should never ever been done 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:07.080 on the last play of the game either in the 0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:09.560 history of the NFL. By the way, Sammy, no one's 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:12.080 talking about the fact that Sammy Watkins, who pought the 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.600 fourth down ball instead of running out of bounds, tried 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.920 to run up field and cost them about fifteen seconds 0:05:19.080 --> 0:05:21.960 and that's why they had It was just unbelievable that game, 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:25.760 and Hollywood Brown dropped about four d touchdown passes. So anyways, 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:27.920 if I end up winning Survivor, that will go down 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:30.200 in the animals is one of the most unbelievable. It'll 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:33.159 it'll go down in the anals as well. Anyone who 0:05:33.160 --> 0:05:35.920 had Baltimore, anyone who had Baltimore, who wins this thing, 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:41.560 that will be the turning point. How many people I'm 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:45.159 ten and five in um in millions, which picks me 0:05:45.279 --> 0:05:49.880 tied for uh e seven, like four five hundred place 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.120 with the basically, I'm the tenth to the twenty second 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:55.880 percentile right now in millions of ten and five? You 0:05:56.160 --> 0:05:59.880 were we interrupted you. I'm sorry? What else? Two didn't 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:02.760 admit in millions? But then I was one of them? Really, 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:06.279 I didn't submit it millions. My buddy kiss seems mother died, 0:06:06.720 --> 0:06:09.520 and then my girl came into town, and I completely forgot. 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:13.640 I had nothing to play for anyway, so you know, yeah, 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:15.320 but wait, don't you want to play for the for 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:19.400 the season long? Yeah? Loser ship? No, I mean I was. 0:06:19.600 --> 0:06:21.520 I was. I would have gone three and two, so 0:06:21.600 --> 0:06:24.400 what gonna matter? It wasn't gonna matter either way. I'm 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:26.800 just playing for quarterlies at this point. Survivor is the 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:29.440 only thing I care about. I failed to put him 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:31.320 the mill caring about other things. If you failed to 0:06:31.360 --> 0:06:33.240 put in your Survivor, you'd really be saying if I 0:06:33.279 --> 0:06:37.360 failed to put on my Survivor, shoot me. Yeah, alright, 0:06:37.760 --> 0:06:39.919 I was upset that I didn't put in Daniel Collins 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:42.680 this morning. You should have been well, at least one 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:45.720 set in you should have been. Okay, here's the deal. 0:06:45.960 --> 0:06:48.039 We start with the best bets. Oh no, first before 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:50.400 we've been doing best bets Thursday night. Thought. It's another uh, 0:06:50.839 --> 0:06:54.520 non sexy matchup on a Thursday night, but very teasable 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:57.520 and maybe survivorable, if you know what I mean. Matt 0:06:57.560 --> 0:06:59.520 will start with you. Any thoughts here, I think I 0:06:59.520 --> 0:07:02.400 already know years But for this audience, Cincinnati seven and 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.640 a half point favorites at home against Jacksonville tonight, how 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.920 are you playing this or how have you played it already? Yeah? 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:11.080 I mean I've got the baggles and some and some 0:07:11.160 --> 0:07:15.120 teasers here. I mean, I understand the defensive I understand 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:17.760 the defensive injuries here. Just Jesse Bates is gonna be 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.400 out for the Bengals. You also have te Higgins who's 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:22.840 gonna be out from wide receiver standpoint. They played without 0:07:22.920 --> 0:07:25.360 him last week. Anyways, that's not going to be that 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:28.200 crazy jo w a woose a. It's gonna be out 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.080 as well for them. That said, they do get back 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.840 Trey Waynes, so that's not that big of a loss 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:37.520 for them in this whole thing. And you know, look, 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:39.880 the when we're real look at this, it's just the 0:07:39.920 --> 0:07:42.920 mismatch here of defense versus offense, which I didn't think 0:07:42.960 --> 0:07:45.960 I would be saying whenever we looked at this game preseason. 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:49.760 But the Cincinnati defense has been for real so far. 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:52.120 I mean, you take a look, and every single one 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:55.400 of the advanced statistics agree. There the fourth overall defense 0:07:55.480 --> 0:07:57.600 d b o A, the the ninth overall defense according 0:07:57.640 --> 0:08:00.520 to Pro Football Focus. You look at their PA per 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:03.480 play allowed, their sixth in the NFL, there their third, 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:06.640 and success rate allowed against, And I mean, it's just 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:10.160 really really has come together here with a team that 0:08:10.240 --> 0:08:13.600 has invested a ton in the defense, not only through 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:16.760 the draft but in free agency as well. They're allowing 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.600 just seventy eight yards per per per game running right 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:23.960 now two point eight adjusted line yards at both our 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:26.960 top five figures in the NFL. I mean, it's just 0:08:27.040 --> 0:08:31.040 been a complete, a complete one eighty from the for 0:08:31.080 --> 0:08:32.720 this defense from what we saw last year for this 0:08:32.720 --> 0:08:34.480 b Beagles team. And of course we know just how 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.840 bad the Jags offense has been. Trevor Lawrence is a 0:08:37.840 --> 0:08:40.720 load lowest graded passer in the NFL out of every 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.840 single quarterback that has taken at least of their snaps, 0:08:44.000 --> 0:08:46.680 which means he's lower than justin fields and lower than 0:08:46.760 --> 0:08:49.640 Davis Mills. He leads the league in turnover worthy plays, 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.680 he leads a league in interceptions as we know as well. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.160 And I don't see them turning this around on a 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:58.160 short week going up against his Beagles team. So if 0:08:58.200 --> 0:09:00.199 they only have to win this by a in or 0:09:00.240 --> 0:09:01.960 a point and a half or even two, if this 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:04.360 thing happens to get to eight before kickoff before you 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:06.679 listen to this and you take it down below the 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:09.760 below the three, I still think it is a very very, 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.240 very good bet. Um. I cannot see the Bengals losing 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.440 this game outside of a course which we always have 0:09:15.520 --> 0:09:19.240 to say, some sort of catastrophic injury situation. But this 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.160 defense versus this offense is a big time mismatch. Say 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:26.080 that any concern, go ahead, go ahead. I was gonna say, Matt, 0:09:26.120 --> 0:09:28.520 any concern with the fact that the Bengals did show 0:09:28.600 --> 0:09:30.840 up well on defense against Minnesota, but then the next 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:34.160 two teams they played, Bears and Steelers, are not exactly 0:09:34.400 --> 0:09:38.360 offensive barn Burners. Well, you know, one of the things 0:09:38.360 --> 0:09:41.600 that these advanced statistics are meant to do is try 0:09:41.679 --> 0:09:43.720 to strip out, you know, a lot of the noise 0:09:43.760 --> 0:09:47.000 around that and strictly get into what they're what they're 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.240 doing on the field, regardless of opponent. And so I'm 0:09:50.280 --> 0:09:52.600 actually not really all that worried about. I mean, everything 0:09:52.640 --> 0:09:55.240 seems to point to this being for real. And again, 0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:57.320 I mean, Trey Hendrickson is a guy that they went 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:59.560 out and spend a lot of money in free agency on. 0:09:59.640 --> 0:10:02.840 He's our got fifteen quarterback pressures on the season as well, 0:10:02.880 --> 0:10:06.280 so he's paying dividends early for this team. So and 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:07.800 it's not just one way or the other. They've been 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:10.360 good against the past and good against the run, which 0:10:10.400 --> 0:10:12.840 typically if there's some sort of smoking mirrors, there's like 0:10:13.040 --> 0:10:15.439 a way to attack a defense. But they've been eight 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:18.720 against the past, second against the run so far throughout 0:10:18.720 --> 0:10:21.040 the short season. So even if they regress a little bit, 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:23.640 even if it is a little bit not real, that 0:10:23.760 --> 0:10:25.560 still puts them kind of in the top ten in 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:28.520 every single aspect of the defensive of the defensive side 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.280 of the ball. So against this Jags defense, I don't 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:33.720 see it really rearing its ugly head here at all. 0:10:34.320 --> 0:10:36.720 I like it as a teaser leg makes makes all 0:10:36.760 --> 0:10:39.040 the sense of the world to me. Should I play it? 0:10:39.120 --> 0:10:41.760 In Survivors? The question, well, I think it comes down 0:10:41.800 --> 0:10:43.760 to do you have multiple entries? And if you have 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.160 multiple entries, I think you use one or two of 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.680 them on Cincinnati. But I think if you have one entry, 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:51.720 it's tough to stomach. If you go down with Cincinnati. 0:10:51.760 --> 0:10:54.400 The problem is there's really three obvious choices this week, 0:10:55.160 --> 0:11:01.559 Saints finishing, let him, let me finish. That's what I'm 0:11:01.559 --> 0:11:05.360 gonna say, America. They're part of that three game window 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:07.920 right that the Bills actually the Bills in Saints game 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:11.319 right to save. So I would worry though about using them. 0:11:11.360 --> 0:11:15.320 I mean, Matt pointed out the injuries. Jacksonville is actually 0:11:15.360 --> 0:11:18.560 healthier than Cincinnati going into this matchup. Cincinnati is not 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.160 used to the role of being a favorite expected to 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:23.400 win the game. And then this is probably the only 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:27.120 matchup all year where urban Meyer won't be totally outclassed 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:29.240 by the other sideline. I mean, David Culley made him 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:31.120 look like Brett b Leman week one. I don't think 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:34.440 that's gonna happen tonight. Um, I don't know, you know, 0:11:34.520 --> 0:11:36.559 I I sort of said before the season, like I 0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.079 don't believe in in gritting out the entire season. I 0:11:39.160 --> 0:11:40.800 want to I just want to survive the first five 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.240 or six weeks, and then I'll start to map it 0:11:43.280 --> 0:11:46.079 out when I have better feeling on these teams and 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.200 when I can sort of game theory it from there. 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:52.120 So this might be one of the last weeks where 0:11:52.160 --> 0:11:55.320 I think, if you have one entry left, I think 0:11:55.360 --> 0:11:58.560 you do play Cincinnati because you'll never play him again, 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:00.679 and I know it's gonna be I think the majority 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.480 of people are gonna end up on Cincinnati. That's my hunch. 0:12:04.040 --> 0:12:07.720 Not the majority, but make the highest percentage. Let's say, Um, 0:12:07.920 --> 0:12:09.640 I don't know. I think I think this is the 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:12.120 week where you just sort of swallow hard and take 0:12:12.160 --> 0:12:14.920 you I could regret that wildly. How about you, Todd? 0:12:14.960 --> 0:12:18.120 Are you using the Bengals and survivor Here's the thing. 0:12:18.160 --> 0:12:21.680 I'm very I'm a little conflicted. Matt's making me feel better. 0:12:22.000 --> 0:12:24.920 But the Monday Night Football, you know you can do 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.679 these in game parlays. Um on Monday Night Football, when 0:12:28.679 --> 0:12:31.400 I realized very quickly that the Cowboys were gonna crush 0:12:31.440 --> 0:12:34.239 the Eagles, I took the Cowboys parlayed to the Bengals 0:12:34.960 --> 0:12:37.679 money lines um and because I just thought there's no 0:12:37.720 --> 0:12:39.720 way the Bengals are gonna lose on Thursday night, and 0:12:39.760 --> 0:12:42.040 of course the Cowboys crushed. And then I've been thinking 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:44.480 about this all week. Do I want to take the Bengals, 0:12:44.480 --> 0:12:46.199 which is the only time I'm probably gonna be able 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:48.240 to take the Bengals, Or do I want to take 0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.720 the Bills or and now the obviously have the Bills 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:54.800 problem with the Thanksgiving San Francisco, I mean the Christmas 0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:58.600 Thanksgiving thing, I was thinking, what about Tennessee. Now Tennessee 0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.560 is also one of the Christmas games, but they're at 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:04.480 What's the game that I was just looking at it? 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:09.280 They are at somebody tough you're talking about there at 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.319 San Francisco. No, they're at home against San Francisco and 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.520 the Christmas Christmas. So the question is, would I ever 0:13:15.920 --> 0:13:17.920 would I would I have the W I risk taking 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:21.960 Tennessee on Christmas at home against San Francisco If I wouldn't, 0:13:22.160 --> 0:13:25.480 maybe I take Tennessee at the Jets because I don't 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.120 think the Jets can win. I don't know, what do 0:13:28.160 --> 0:13:30.360 you guys? I want to make this point. Remember this 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:33.680 Tennessee game where they're hosting. The forty nine is the 0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:39.240 Thursday before Christmas. But it's part of the window. What 0:13:39.360 --> 0:13:40.839 that's part of I thought it was only the two 0:13:40.840 --> 0:13:44.120 games on Christmas. No, there's two three game windows. The 0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:47.040 three games on Thanksgiving and then the Thursday night and 0:13:47.120 --> 0:13:49.240 two games on Christmas are the other three game window. 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:53.960 And the window is Thanksgiving Bears, Lions, Raiders, Cowboys, Bill Saints. 0:13:54.000 --> 0:13:59.160 That's Thanksgiving window. Then the Christmas window is San Frana, Tennessee, Cleveland, 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:02.280 and Green Bay or Indie at Arizona, which is kind 0:14:02.280 --> 0:14:05.360 of shaping up that you want to save Arizona because 0:14:05.440 --> 0:14:08.959 Indie looks like they're so bad that maybe Arizona is 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:11.000 the play on that Christmas. And then maybe you don't 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:13.720 worry about not having the other four teams and maybe 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:16.760 you do use them. So that's another like question. Maybe 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:18.840 you take green Bay at home against the Steelers if 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:23.600 you're not worried about that last thing. The one million 0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:26.480 for those who care about the extra one million, you 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:29.480 have to have both Kansas City and and uh Tampa 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:31.840 Bay are just one of them, one of those two 0:14:32.000 --> 0:14:35.240 on the final weekning. Okay, alright, let's do best bets. 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:37.760 That's The only thing I would caution about the Titans 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:39.560 this week, guys, I mean, they could be without a 0:14:39.640 --> 0:14:42.480 j Brown and Julio Jones and so now you're going 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.080 to be trying to get it done with Chester Rogers 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:51.000 and Josh Reynolds and Racy McMath and stuff. And I 0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:53.240 understand they can turn around handed off to Derrick Henry 0:14:53.360 --> 0:14:56.160 thirty times in the game, but the one thing the 0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:59.800 Jets kind of do well is defend the run. So 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.280 there's just at least a little bit of caution there 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.280 with Tennessee's a it's a fine point. What's your what's 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:08.000 the favorite moment? Your favorite moment in Chester Rogers career? 0:15:08.080 --> 0:15:13.640 Todd Well, it's more I'm more of a Racy mcminimum guy. 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:17.000 All Right, let's start with the best bets, three either 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.400 sides of totals. Matt, you're the guest. We start with you, sir. Yeah, 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:25.440 I'm I'm pretty on board here with this Ravens team 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:27.800 not only taking the point and a half or point 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:29.320 I guess is down to a point at this point, 0:15:29.360 --> 0:15:32.360 but also using them in teasers this week. I mean, 0:15:32.520 --> 0:15:34.960 our last memory of them is having to kick a 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.880 sixty six yard field goal to beat a team that 0:15:38.400 --> 0:15:39.720 you know, I think it's a little bit better than 0:15:39.720 --> 0:15:41.560 people have a perception of. But the Lions, who are 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:43.440 certainly still going to be one of the bottom six 0:15:43.520 --> 0:15:45.280 or seven teams in the NFL, if not in the 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:48.800 bottom five. And what you do is you you really 0:15:48.840 --> 0:15:50.960 have to dig in a little bit further into all this. 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:53.920 Todd mentioned a little bit earlier, but you had Hollywood 0:15:53.960 --> 0:15:58.520 Brown drop two touchdowns for sure, maybe a third, maybe 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:00.600 even a third depending on people of beating the guy 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:03.680 or not. This the perception this team would be completely 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:05.760 different if that would have been the case. Then the 0:16:05.760 --> 0:16:08.920 other thing, they get Brandon Williams, Justin Houston, and Justin 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.400 Mta Bouquet back. All three of those guys had to 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:13.920 miss last week because of COVID. They're off the COVID 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:16.720 list this week as well. Two of those guys are starters. 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:20.280 The other guy plays over the snaps for them on defense. 0:16:20.400 --> 0:16:24.440 So now you have three guys injected back into this defense. 0:16:24.720 --> 0:16:26.880 Last week was the first week Jimmy Smith came back 0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:29.320 off of BYR as well. He only played like nineteen 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:31.960 or twenty snaps. He's going to be a week healthier. 0:16:32.200 --> 0:16:35.080 He's going to play more snaps for this Ravens team 0:16:35.120 --> 0:16:37.480 as well. And then oh yeah, they get Rashad Bateman 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:39.840 and Miles Boykin off of IR as well in a 0:16:39.960 --> 0:16:43.200 thin receivers in a very thin receiving corps with one 0:16:43.240 --> 0:16:46.360 guy that's your supposed number one that can't catch touchdown passes. 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.360 Now you get these guys added into the mix as well. 0:16:49.400 --> 0:16:51.960 On the Broncos side, it got worse. Actually, you're already 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:55.480 without Jerry Judy. Now you're without kJ Hamdler, Bradley Chubbs 0:16:55.480 --> 0:16:57.360 already again missed six to eight weeks. Both of their 0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.680 starting guards are banged up in this scenario, areo. I 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.600 think this is a really really good bounce back situation 0:17:03.680 --> 0:17:06.800 where this Ravens team would be favored in this game 0:17:06.920 --> 0:17:08.800 if it was if the game had played out a 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:11.320 little bit differently last week that they were really hamstrung. 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:15.600 Given the situations here, they're still fourth overall rushing defense, 0:17:15.640 --> 0:17:18.040 I mean rushing offense d v o A. In the NFL, 0:17:18.400 --> 0:17:21.359 they're going to sit there, rush per attempt there first 0:17:21.400 --> 0:17:23.280 in the league. They're gonna run this ball, and run 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:24.919 this ball, and run this ball. And then when you 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.120 think that they lo you to sleep he'll be able 0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:29.720 to hit something through the past game as well. You 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:31.919 can only play the opponents that are in front of you. 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:35.200 I fully understand that all credit due to the Broncos 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:37.520 and what they've been able to do. Teddy Bridgewater has 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:41.080 played out of his mind. He's second adjusted completion percentage 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.920 on the season. He's and and he's actually changed the 0:17:43.920 --> 0:17:46.359 way he plays football. He's eighth and average depth of 0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:48.000 target we used to think of him is just checking 0:17:48.040 --> 0:17:50.720 down Charlie who never wanted to take any chances, and 0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:54.200 instead he's thrown four passes of twenty or moore yards 0:17:54.200 --> 0:17:56.959 down the field. Other except for two other guys, he's 0:17:57.000 --> 0:17:58.879 third in the league in twenty or more yards passes 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:01.960 down the field. So all credit due to the Broncos 0:18:02.000 --> 0:18:04.160 and what they've been able to do, But their opponents 0:18:04.160 --> 0:18:06.840 are oh and nine. Two of the starting quarterbacks that 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:09.040 he's faced or rookies, and Lawrence and Wilson, who are 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.639 two of the worst quarterbacks we've seen in this season 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:16.000 so far. The other you know, it's just I think 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:17.800 that this is a really, really good spot for this 0:18:17.920 --> 0:18:19.680 Ravens team to get right. And again I think that 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:21.560 the wrong team is favored in this game. I'm gonna 0:18:21.560 --> 0:18:25.480 I'm gonna jump in here because on guessing lines last week. 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:28.560 I've said this many times before, my first reactions and 0:18:28.600 --> 0:18:31.560 guessing lines are often the best reactions that I have 0:18:31.760 --> 0:18:34.520 just me personally, and I should not I should not 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:38.360 dissuade later in the week from that first reaction. Last week, 0:18:38.400 --> 0:18:40.520 it was Arizona. I thought it was too low against Jacksonville, 0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:43.879 despite what Todd's bullshit was earlier, that got home should 0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:46.560 have gotten home easier. And uh, also the fact that 0:18:46.600 --> 0:18:48.320 the Chargers were six and a half point dogs against 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:51.040 the Chiefs, that I had a lot of turnover benefit there, 0:18:51.320 --> 0:18:53.680 But that got home is an outright winner. This week 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.680 for me, on guessing lines, it was Baltimore. And I'll 0:18:55.680 --> 0:18:58.399 get to the next one later, but Baltimore, even before 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:00.080 Matt said it better than I could have been, or 0:19:00.160 --> 0:19:03.080 just that whole dissertation on it, that line seems off 0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:06.160 to me. Baltimore should be the favorite. And I am 0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.040 all about the Ravens and and and I'm I've been 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:11.639 sort of barrish about Denver the whole time anyway, And 0:19:11.720 --> 0:19:13.840 yes they have beaten who's in front of them, But 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:15.680 that adjustment, that draft Kings made from eight and a 0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:17.600 half wins to ten and a half after they beat 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:20.240 the Giants, a team they were supposed to beat a 0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:23.359 week one, and they adjusted it two games. It's still 0:19:23.400 --> 0:19:26.080 there now. They baked in apparently the next two weeks worth. 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:28.520 I think it's still an under on ten and a half, 0:19:28.520 --> 0:19:31.520 and I think that the losses start this week. Mikey, 0:19:32.520 --> 0:19:34.359 the Buffalo was the other game. You were off on 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.720 the guessing lines, right, No, I thought you said you 0:19:37.720 --> 0:19:39.919 would make it fourteen. That was one. But that's not 0:19:39.960 --> 0:19:41.960 what I'm talking. It's not like I'm racing the bet. 0:19:41.960 --> 0:19:46.159 The that Chrissie said he had made it twine and 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:49.919 a half and it it drifted a little towards Yeah, okay. 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:54.000 I like the Cleveland Browns minus two at Minnesota. Uh Look, 0:19:54.160 --> 0:19:56.480 Seattle was favored by two at Minnesota last week. You 0:19:56.520 --> 0:19:58.520 mean to tell me that Cleveland and Seattle or pick 0:19:58.600 --> 0:20:00.720 him on a neutral field. I don't think so. The 0:20:00.800 --> 0:20:03.960 Seattle defense is terrible. The Browns are much better. They'll 0:20:04.000 --> 0:20:06.439