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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that Action Boss. All right, here we go,

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Speaker 2: throwing job.

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Speaker 3: I'm sitting up to cash stop.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to wind.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 3: this is the ultimate kabay.

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Speaker 2: You want to pass and we are under way.

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Speaker 4: We's up, everybody. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Chris Raybond, and this is our Conference Championship

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Speaker 4: weekend betting preview. Today we're gonna build our Conference Championship

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Speaker 4: six pack of bets with the help of my co host,

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Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck. I know

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Speaker 4: it's kind of a bittersweet week for you with the

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Speaker 4: Ravens going down, but you did hit some nice bets,

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Speaker 4: including that likely anytime touchdown.

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Speaker 3: So how you feeling.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it was a good weekend betting. I think my

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Speaker 2: only loss was Ravens first half. They turned it over twice.

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Speaker 2: Can't do that on the road in the playoffs. You

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Speaker 2: gotta blame Lamar for that. But got a live snover

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Speaker 2: in the Rams game. Some Ravens live, some Texans live,

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Speaker 2: and then all my tight ends came through. I had

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Speaker 2: a bunch of Howkins and stuff. I had Higbee to score,

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Speaker 2: likely to score likely over Schultz overs. It was a

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Speaker 2: good weekend betting the Ravens couldn't get it done. But

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Speaker 2: you can't turn it over on the road. Yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: unfortunate because the Ravens really, from a box score perspective,

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Speaker 2: dominated that game. I thought Houston was pretty unfortunate. I

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Speaker 2: thought they deserved a better chance, but their special teams

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Speaker 2: really let them down. Refs were pretty bad in that game.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious. I'm actually predicting that the Rests are going

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Speaker 2: to stay out of it this week. We'll see. I mean,

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Speaker 2: there was a lot of backlash and a lot of

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Speaker 2: people talking about it, So I'm hoping that they swallow

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Speaker 2: their whistle, which is what I always hope for in

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Speaker 2: big games. Rams Eagles was a great game, and then

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Speaker 2: a lot of these games, I mean, all four winning

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Speaker 2: teams were out gained. Story a lot of these playoff

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Speaker 2: games turnovers, and that's going to cost you in the

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Speaker 2: playoffs more times than not. I mean, it looked no

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Speaker 2: further than the Lions, who I mean GoF turned into

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Speaker 2: a pumpkin. I got to give cred up to the

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Speaker 2: Washington game plan in that I mean their defense was

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Speaker 2: bad and it is bad, but they went more zone,

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Speaker 2: went really zone heavy. You know, Golf all year has

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Speaker 2: been the number one quarterback against Man and the Lions

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Speaker 2: offense still shredded, as they will do every week. But

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Speaker 2: Goff made some really bad mistakes trying to force throws. Washington.

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Speaker 2: You have a rookie quarterback on the road in two

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Speaker 2: straight games, and he's the one who looked more poised

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Speaker 2: and didn't make any mistakes. So overall is a good weekend,

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Speaker 2: But who cares. We're on to the next got two

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Speaker 2: very familiar matchups, one a divisional one we've seen quite

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Speaker 2: a few times over the past few seasons.

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Speaker 4: Also, to all of our listeners, listen up. If you're

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Speaker 4: listening on your phone and you want to instantly tail

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Speaker 4: any of today's picks, just go to the episode description.

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Speaker 4: We've got links for all those picks. If you quick

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Speaker 4: the links on your mobile device, the betting app for

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Speaker 4: that pick will open with the bet slip for that pick.

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Speaker 4: Bury convenient and a great way to tail. So just

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Speaker 4: go to the episode description and find the quick slip

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Speaker 4: links and you can tail instantly. Yeah, So jump right

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Speaker 4: into our Conference Championship six pack.

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Speaker 3: Thursday for action.

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Speaker 2: Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: Fifty five to fifty one of the score is the

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Speaker 4: only four behind. You didn't pick up another point on

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Speaker 4: me last week.

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Speaker 2: You had the Chargers under lost by the hook two

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Speaker 2: weeks ago on the block extra point and then two

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Speaker 2: more by the class.

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Speaker 3: And that wasn't even my most painful.

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Speaker 4: The most painful whether I had John Bates speaking of

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Speaker 4: the tight ends under half a yard games outreach. All

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Speaker 4: they need to do is run the ball. They the

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Speaker 4: one pass, play a twenty yard bomb. I think they

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Speaker 4: just wanted to get everybody a catch that played in

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Speaker 4: the game or something, because it was like there was

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Speaker 4: no reason to do that, and then they went back

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Speaker 4: to running.

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Speaker 2: I saw that all good.

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Speaker 4: Uh So let's started up with the Commanders at the

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Speaker 4: Eagles Eagles six. You can find us six and a

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Speaker 4: half out there if you're looking at Washington, which I'll

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Speaker 4: talk about in a minute.

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Speaker 3: Uh the total forty seven and a half.

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Speaker 4: That's three pm Eastern on Fox. And for my first

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Speaker 4: pick of the Conference Championship Week six pack, I'm going

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Speaker 4: with the Commanders plus six and a half at the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: So I feel like the general market sentiment at this

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Speaker 4: point is probably okay, you know, the Commander's a nice run.

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Speaker 4: You know, things are gonna kind of go back to

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Speaker 4: normal now and they'll get you know, blown out by

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Speaker 4: the Eagles. But to me, when I look at this

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Speaker 4: Eagles team, I just see way too many red flags

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Speaker 4: not to take the you know, six six and a

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Speaker 4: half here with Washington. So Philly's been out gained, as

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Speaker 4: you mentioned, in both playoff games, They've been out gained

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Speaker 4: by four of the last five playoff teams they faced.

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh was the only one they they out gained but

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Speaker 4: Philadelphia and that Rams game touchdowns of seventy eight, sixty two,

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Speaker 4: and forty four on the ground. Outside of that, there

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Speaker 4: are other fifty eight plays gained one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: six yards. It's just two point nine yards per place.

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Speaker 4: So they're living dangerously. You expect them to get you know,

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Speaker 4: those sa Quon plays here and there, but it's just

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Speaker 4: been a very inconsistent offense. Then you look at Jaywen

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Speaker 4: Hurts before and after.

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Speaker 3: The knee injury.

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Speaker 4: Before he had he wasn't great. Just three net yards

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Speaker 4: per attempt. But the Eagles called about fifty eight percent

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Speaker 4: pass plays after and it was still a close game.

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Speaker 3: So like the game script didn't really change.

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Speaker 4: But after the knee injury, just twenty nine twenty nine

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Speaker 4: point four percent pass plays and he averaged negative point

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Speaker 4: two net yards per attempt. I don't know how healthy

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Speaker 4: he is, but any variants, any any anything less than

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Speaker 4: one hundred percent works in your favorite of the dog here.

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Speaker 4: And then on defense, this Philadelphia team, one thing they

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Speaker 4: struggled with fourth downs. They were twenty fourth in the league,

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Speaker 4: allowing sixty three percent during the regular season. We know

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Speaker 4: Washington only missed three to all regular season and one

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Speaker 4: of the best fourth down teams.

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Speaker 3: They go for it almost every time. And then that

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Speaker 3: Nikobe Dean injury.

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Speaker 4: We'll see we only got a sample size of one

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Speaker 4: right now in the playoffs with this current setup, but

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Speaker 4: their their net yards per attempt during the regular season

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Speaker 4: five point one against the Rams six point one yards

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Speaker 4: per attempt during the regular season six point zero. The

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Speaker 4: Rams got seven point four.

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Speaker 3: And then the.

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Speaker 4: Sutdoors Stafford outdoors, I mean even the yards for carry

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Speaker 4: for Kyen williams Uh in that Ram run game five

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Speaker 4: point one yards to carry four point three. So every

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Speaker 4: the defense it's kind of showing us some red flags. Now,

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Speaker 4: that's not the only red flag I'm seeing from the defense.

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Speaker 4: That first meeting Washington. You know, Philadelphia handled Washington for

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Speaker 4: the most part on that Thursday night game. Cliff wasn't

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Speaker 4: moving Terry around, so Terry had one catch in that game.

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Speaker 4: That second meeting, everyone wants to talk about, you know, Okay,

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Speaker 4: Philadelphia was on its way to blowout until Jalen Hurts

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Speaker 4: got hurt. Fine, but your defense still gave up thirty

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Speaker 4: six points. Still, you still lost the game where you

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Speaker 4: had a five to two turnover edge. So the defense

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Speaker 4: showing some red flags here. And then even that first meeting,

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Speaker 4: Washington was up ten to six in the fourth quarter

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Speaker 4: with McLaurin having one catch all finishing but one catch

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Speaker 4: in that game. It wasn't until Philadelphia, you know, busted out,

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Speaker 4: you know, some explosive plays. So I think that this

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Speaker 4: Washington team can hang. I think Daniels is getting better,

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Speaker 4: and I just think on both sides of the ball,

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Speaker 4: we're seeing these red flags that they just keep adding up.

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Speaker 4: So I keep having it like you know, ding a

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Speaker 4: tenth of a point here for Philadelphia's rating, a tenth

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Speaker 4: of a point there, And I'm just not getting to this.

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Speaker 4: You know, six, this six, this key number of six here,

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Speaker 4: and Jadan Daniels is a dog, covering by seven point

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Speaker 4: eight points per game, and in his eight games as

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Speaker 4: a dog five to two and one seventy one point

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Speaker 4: four percent against the spread, Hurts is a favorite by

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Speaker 4: four or more fifteen and twenty and two pushes just

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Speaker 4: forty three percent against the spread six twelve and one

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Speaker 4: over the past two seasons, just just thirty three percent.

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Speaker 4: I just I just see too many red flags on

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Speaker 4: both sides of the ball. And their kickers, their kickers

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Speaker 4: not hitting kicks now, and Philadelphia one of conservative teams,

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Speaker 4: Washington one of the most aggressive, So all the everything

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Speaker 4: kind of favors the dog in this matchup. It Hurts

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Speaker 4: is less than one hundred percent, or aj is still

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Speaker 4: less than one hundred percent, that's gravy, but roll Washington here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm close to on market here. It looks like

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Speaker 2: Quinya Mitchell is gonnapply, but that's certainly worth monitoring. But

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Speaker 2: you're right with the injury situation, I just don't like

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Speaker 2: betting Washington games because I look people are like because

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Speaker 2: there's so much fourth down barons, I anticipate they're going

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Speaker 2: to go for it a lot this week. Again, last

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Speaker 2: week it worked. They converted three fourth downs. They also

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Speaker 2: got five turnovers. They won the turnover battle against Tampa

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Speaker 2: two had some key fourth downs. If the fourth down

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Speaker 2: conversions go sideways, this could get ugly. If they work,

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Speaker 2: they could win this game out right. There's a lot

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Speaker 2: of variants of Commanders games, so I'll probably look to

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Speaker 2: bet this live, but you do have the potential injury

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Speaker 2: uncertainty working in your favor, although I I'll say the

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Speaker 2: cosme injury. I'm Washington a bit underrated in this particular

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Speaker 2: matchup against Jalen Carter. We'll see if the interior of

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Speaker 2: that Philadelphia defensive line can get more pressure. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to go a different route for my first pick of

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Speaker 2: the Conference Championship Sunday six pack. I'm going with Dallas

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Speaker 2: Goddard over three and a half catches. This is fine

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Speaker 2: at minus one forty find minus one thirty out there

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Speaker 2: as we record. I also like him over his yardage

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Speaker 2: thirty seven and a half, thirty eight and a half

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Speaker 2: and anything below forty I think is fine. I really

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Speaker 2: like this matchup for Goddard. And I'll say this, I

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Speaker 2: think the injury uncertainty helps Goddard because I don't think

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Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts is the number one, the highest scramble rate

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, so I don't think with his knee

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Speaker 2: he's going to be scrambling as much. Also, designed runs,

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Speaker 2: doubt you're going to get those. Washington also likes the blitz,

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Speaker 2: so Hurts not as mobile, not gonna be scrambling as much.

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Speaker 2: Probably needs to get rid of the ball quicker who

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Speaker 2: benefits from that. I think got it. I also don't

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Speaker 2: think aj Brown is one hundred percent healthy. I mean,

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Speaker 2: he has two catches.

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Speaker 3: In should have had a third, but yeah, yeah, he

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Speaker 3: dropped it.

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Speaker 2: But and he had favorable matchups from a corner perspective

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Speaker 2: against the Rams corners, against the Packers corners without Alexander,

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Speaker 2: So I don't think he's fully healthy. I think that's

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Speaker 2: more looks for Goddar. The Washington season long defensive numbers

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Speaker 2: against tight ends from a raw numbers perspective aren't terrible

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Speaker 2: four catches for thirty nine yards on average, but doesn't

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Speaker 2: paint the whole picture. They faced I don't know five

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Speaker 2: or six backup quarterbacks. They also didn't face Goddard in

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Speaker 2: one of the matchups. They didn't face Trey McBride. They

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Speaker 2: didn't face Jake Ferguson Nidjok, who gets hurt early for

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Speaker 2: the Browns. If you adjust for opponent and not even

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Speaker 2: those injuries, they're twenty sixth in DVA against tight ends.

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Speaker 2: Also bottom three in terms of defending over the middle

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Speaker 2: of the field and at the second level. So there's

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Speaker 2: gonna be opportunities for Goddard here, just like there was

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Speaker 2: for Laporta last week. I mean laport had six catches

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Speaker 2: on seven targets for fifty one yards in a touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Could have had more if GoF wasn't a pumpkin. Some

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Speaker 2: of his picks the porter was wide open and he

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Speaker 2: tried to force throws. I mean Laporter should have had

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Speaker 2: eight nine catches in that game. Since coming back from injury,

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Speaker 2: Godard's looked really good. There's past six games he's averaged

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Speaker 2: four catches on five targets for forty five and a

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Speaker 2: half yards. He has eight on ten targets for one

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Speaker 2: h hundred and three yards in the playoffs and that

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Speaker 2: includes a big screen pass that got called back to

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Speaker 2: an illegal man down field. Goddard has showed up in

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Speaker 2: almost every single postseason game since his second year in

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Speaker 2: the league, when he became when he started more a

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Speaker 2: majority of the games in the season. He has played

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Speaker 2: in eight playoff games, He's averaged five point one catches

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Speaker 2: on just under seven targets for fifty four yards and

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Speaker 2: three touchdowns. Median receptions in yards over that stretch six

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Speaker 2: for fifty seven. He's got at least four in all

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Speaker 2: eight games, never gone below four. He's got forty seven

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Speaker 2: yards or more and six of those eight, so I

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Speaker 2: really like him to get at least four catches here.

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Speaker 2: He's probably gonna get seven or eight targets if I

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Speaker 2: had to guess, I think he'll get like a screen,

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Speaker 2: a couple checkdowns, and he just has a favorable matchup here.

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Speaker 2: Whether or not Washington elects to go more zone, which

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Speaker 2: they could here, because if you look at Hurts numbers,

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Speaker 2: just like Goff good practice run that could help your

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Speaker 2: bet too, Like you want to maybe use a little

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Speaker 2: more zone here against Hurts, But I think just the

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Speaker 2: Hurts and Brown not being one hundred percent Hurts mobility

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Speaker 2: likely limited. I think that means more opportunities for god

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Speaker 2: are in a favorable matchup. So give me his over

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Speaker 2: three and a half catches for my first pick.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I do.

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Speaker 4: I have Hurts projected to scramble West. You know, we

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Speaker 4: even saw that, you know, last week against the Rams.

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Speaker 4: I think the one the one concern is if and

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Speaker 4: you know, Philadelphia is never really that forthcoming with injuries.

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Speaker 3: I mean a J.

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Speaker 4: Brown, he will beat off the injury report by the

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Speaker 4: time the game rolls around and he's clearly not one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent. But I think the one downside is if

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Speaker 4: they go with that super run heavy play calling kind

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Speaker 4: of scheme again that they went after Hurts his injury,

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Speaker 4: and feel like, Okay, it's Washington, we can beat them.

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Speaker 3: If we just stay run heavy. Barkley will break one because.

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Speaker 4: There was what was it the Green Bay game, Hurts

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Speaker 4: was stuck up on thirty nine passing yards with under

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Speaker 4: five minutes to go in the third quarter. But I agree,

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Speaker 4: I think Goddard does have a good matchup.

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Speaker 2: If you're Washington, like this is how I picked some

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Speaker 2: of my props in these high leverage chams, you have

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Speaker 2: to say we're not We're not letting Barkley beat us

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Speaker 2: with Hurts limited with Brown limited, like you have to

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Speaker 2: stack the box here. You have to sell out against

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Speaker 2: the run. Philly's still going to run at a ton

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Speaker 2: with Barkley, but Hurts isn't going to run it like

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Speaker 2: There's going to be opportunities and play action third downs

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Speaker 2: like that. I still think he's gonna get looks even

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Speaker 2: if they go super run heavy. I mean, if you're Washington,

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Speaker 2: you have to sell out here. There's no two ways

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Speaker 2: about it. God are still going to get his looks.

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Speaker 4: Kind Of sticking with the theme here for my second

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Speaker 4: pick in the third overall of the Conference Championship six pack,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with zach Ertz over three and a half receptions.

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Speaker 4: You can find this at minus one ten, minus one fifteen.

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Speaker 4: I have just going over about just under sixty percent

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Speaker 4: of the time. So Philadelphia is allowed four more catches

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Speaker 4: to a tight end in ten times over its last

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Speaker 4: fifteen games excluding Week eight team when they arrested starters

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Speaker 4: and look at their playoff games, Tyrai seven catches with

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Speaker 4: the Rams and craft.

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Speaker 3: Five catches for the Packers.

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Speaker 4: When you have these corners on the outside and you

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Speaker 4: have Cooper Degene in the slot, you're gonna funnel the

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Speaker 4: ball to other spots, and zach Ertz is really jading

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Speaker 4: daniels number two target anyway. I know Diami Brown is emerging,

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Speaker 4: but I think it's a tougher matchup from him. He

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Speaker 4: is good against man covers, but still a tougher matchup

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Speaker 4: if especially if Mitchell plays.

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Speaker 3: So I think that zach Ertz is going to be

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Speaker 3: a factor here.

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Speaker 4: He's had five or more catches in three of the

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Speaker 4: past four and he did have six in the first

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Speaker 4: meeting against Philly, only one in the second one, but

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Speaker 4: that was a game where he was questionable coming in

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Speaker 4: with a concussion, and you actually do see a downtake

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Speaker 4: in production from players that are questionable on the injury

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Speaker 4: report with a concussion. So not putting too much into that,

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Speaker 4: I think that this is a spot where you know,

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Speaker 4: Jane Daniels is gonna have to avoid some pressure. They're

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Speaker 4: gonna get pressure, probably right up the middle, so I

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Speaker 4: don't and you're not going to ask Ertz to block

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Speaker 4: like That's That's why you've seen John Bates in the

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Speaker 4: game a ton in these playoff games because he's he's

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Speaker 4: the guy that's gonna block if they need blockers. So yeah,

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Speaker 4: like Ertz, he's gone over this in eleven of nineteen

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Speaker 4: overall on the season. Like him to do it once

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Speaker 4: again against the Eagles revenge.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm super curious to see how Daniels looks. I

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Speaker 2: mean everything you shot us is just super poised, super calm.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I know the Washington defense is not

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Speaker 2: any good. I don't, it's not. We know that. So

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Speaker 2: like that's the worst unit in this game by far,

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Speaker 2: which worries me. And I know people are like, oh, well,

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Speaker 2: Daniels is different. That's why they're fourth down Like, no,

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Speaker 2: that's nonsense there. I mean they went twenty to twenty

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Speaker 2: three and the regular season or fourth tens. We've seen

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Speaker 2: elite quarterbacks, elite mobile quarterbacks. You're not gonna convert eighty

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Speaker 2: to ninety percent of your fourth downs over time. And

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Speaker 2: it's not like these are fourth and one sneak. So

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Speaker 2: they're throwing it more often than.

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Speaker 3: I actually looked at that.

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Speaker 4: So a lot of them are They're not sneaks, no,

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Speaker 4: but they are a lot of them are like fourth

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Speaker 4: and short, you know, like five or five to go

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Speaker 4: or less. So the key for Daniels really has been

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Speaker 4: and he hasn't been great at this all year, but

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Speaker 4: he's been good at it lately.

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Speaker 3: It's just avoiding sacks, and he's.

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Speaker 4: He seems to be getting like realizing that, Like if

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Speaker 4: I could just avoid sacks, scramble for one yard, you know,

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Speaker 4: dump it off, whatever he has to do. They're getting

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Speaker 4: into like it's almost like they're playing for fourth and

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Speaker 4: short now and you're either going to turn them over

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Speaker 4: or their child's gonna keep going.

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Speaker 3: At this point, I.

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Speaker 2: Just worry about the game that they go for three

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Speaker 2: or over four if they get behind against an elite

358
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Speaker 2: Philadelphia defense on the road. I worry a bit about Washington.

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Speaker 4: What if Philon gets behind with their thirty nine yards

360
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Speaker 4: passing for three cords, like you know what I mean.

361
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,399
Speaker 4: In the green Bay game, Philadelphia gets that gift opening

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Speaker 4: possession fumble right the rest of that game, as bad

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Speaker 4: as Green Bay played all those injuries, fifteen to ten

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00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,639
Speaker 4: rest of the game, that's Philadelphia's margin in this Rams game.

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Speaker 4: Mark we bust off two long touchdown runs, Hurts bust

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Speaker 4: off another and if Matt like the Rams could have

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Speaker 4: won that game. Now I know there was some other Bill.

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00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,760
Speaker 4: You know lucky things that the Rams got. The point

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Speaker 4: is Philadelphia's.

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Speaker 3: Margins are shrinking.

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Speaker 4: The one thing about Washington is say what you want,

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Speaker 4: but take the offense out of it. For Philly, they

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Speaker 4: put up thirty six points on this Philly defense. That's

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Speaker 4: that's still the most anyone's put up this year.

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Speaker 2: I'll be well, obviously it's just one one game at

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Speaker 2: a time, So just like last week, I'll be I'll

377
00:19:35,080 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 2: be watching closely following the action. If I've bet anything live.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I'll have another bet on this game for

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Speaker 4: Pro Football's two superpowers renew their classic rival.

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Speaker 3: Bill's at the Chiefs.

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Speaker 4: Chiefs favored by one and a half the total forty

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00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 4: seven and a half, six thirty Eastern on BBS stuck.

400
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 4: Why don't you go go up first in this one?

401
00:21:06,640 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: Well, my my initial thoughts in the game are that

402
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:14,280
Speaker 2: I'm concerned much instaging of our producer. I'm a little

403
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: concerned for the Bills. I mean, obviously, you have Patrick Mahomes,

404
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 2: who what is won? He's won twenty straight home games

405
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,159
Speaker 2: in cold temperatures in November or later. He's seven to

406
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,240
Speaker 2: zero se I don't know. I think against the spread

407
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,720
Speaker 2: and straight up in the playoffs as a underdog or

408
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 2: favorite of less than a field goal, covering by about

409
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 2: six points per game, it's you know, Mahomes at home

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00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 2: in the playoffs and you just need to win by

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00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:40,280
Speaker 2: a field goal. It's that old adage. But this Bills

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Speaker 2: team is the turnover months. The turnover regression months are

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Speaker 2: gonna hit. I mean, they've been so fortunate in that department,

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Speaker 2: and I the biggest thing that I'm worried about is

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Speaker 2: they do have some defensive injuries. We'll see how that

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00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 2: plays out. Benford, Rap, Bedford, Wrap, Milano, even toront John

417
00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 2: and got a little banged up. I expect him to play,

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Speaker 2: but Benford concussion, we'll see, So yeah, Rap, He's probably

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Speaker 2: the least likely to play, but we'll see the biggest

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Speaker 2: My biggest concern I have for the Bills is their

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Speaker 2: defense over the middle of the field, and that could

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Speaker 2: end up being a death sentence against the Chiefs. And

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Speaker 2: you know that's where they're going to attack. I don't.

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Speaker 2: It's not like this Bill's pass rush is dominant like

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Speaker 2: the Texans, because the biggest issue for the Chiefs it's

426
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Speaker 2: number like there is their offensive line, so you know,

427
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:44,160
Speaker 2: and then they kicked Tuney out, which hurt their run game.

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00:22:44,240 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 2: So the rush efficiency has gone down because he's not

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00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 2: a guard anymore, and they're still weak. He's not great

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Speaker 2: still on pass protection. So, but you went against the

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Speaker 2: Texans who have Hunter and Anderson. The Bills don't have that,

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Speaker 2: So can they wreck the game as well as you know,

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Speaker 2: as much as the Texans defense did. I don't know.

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Speaker 2: So I know that the Chiefs are going to attack

435
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 2: them over the middle of field. They're gonna spam Kelsey.

436
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,439
Speaker 2: I mean I know that, and he's gonna have what

437
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,919
Speaker 2: he's going fourteen straight playoff games at least five catches

438
00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:19,920
Speaker 2: in seventy yards, which is just insane NFL records for both.

439
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 2: But that's what concern me. Like if if Cole Bishops

440
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 2: starting back there tomorrow Hamlin, their linebackers have been as

441
00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,879
Speaker 2: great in coverage, and you don't win the turnover battle,

442
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,280
Speaker 2: which you're probably not likely to do against Kansas City

443
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, then it might be trouble. But I

444
00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: do think that this Kansas City team is obviously extremely vulnerable.

445
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: I do think their defense is so overrated. I'll say

446
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,080
Speaker 2: that again this week. They played nobody all year. Everyone,

447
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,360
Speaker 2: and what I mean by nobody is everyone they played

448
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 2: since the Ravens game and the Raims put four and

449
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 2: fifty yards. Everyone had missing pieces, especially opposing offensive lines

450
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: being heard and we saw this Texans offense that couldn't

451
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 2: do a thing all year. The Texans ca them up

452
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 2: twice once before Dell went down. And then last week

453
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 2: the Texans offense was better than the Chiefs offense. Stroud

454
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 2: was better than Mahomes last week. And who is he

455
00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,159
Speaker 2: throwing to a bunch of guys off the street? His

456
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: bag's great? Yes? Is he gonna draw pressures here? Yes,

457
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 2: But the Bills offensive line is better than the Texans

458
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 2: offensive line. And Allen is better at evading Sackson Shroud.

459
00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 2: He's gonna use his legs here. So but you have

460
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 2: to unleash Allen and you have to be aggressive here

461
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 2: because I think to beat this Chiefs team, you gotta

462
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: jump on them, and you gotta kill him because you

463
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 2: can't be up three or four in the fourth quarter

464
00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 2: with two and a half minutes to go. I have

465
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,760
Speaker 2: nothing on the side. I probably looked at bet the slide.

466
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:47,919
Speaker 2: If anything, I would, I might tease the Bills and

467
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,760
Speaker 2: the Eagles. Maybe if you were looking to just for action,

468
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,119
Speaker 2: I would bet the Bills at three. I'll tell you

469
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 2: that I'm not fading Mahomes at two. I actually lean over,

470
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 2: believe it or not because I think the Chiefs defense

471
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 2: is overrated, and I don't think that the Bills, especially

472
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 2: with their injuries on defense, and they're second worst in

473
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: the league defending the middle of the field. Washington's third worst.

474
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 2: The worst was Carolina. Like that's the company. Both of

475
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: those defenses are in defending the middle of the field,

476
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: especially on a forty seven or if there's a slow start.

477
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 2: These teams feel each other out, maybe a live over.

478
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 2: But I'm gonna focus on props for my pick. So

479
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 2: for my second pick and the fourth overall of the

480
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: Championship Sunday six pack, I'm gonna go with Xavier Worthy

481
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 2: over two and a half rushing yards. Three and a

482
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 2: half's out there fine as well. I this was four

483
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 2: and a half last week and he ran for one

484
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,720
Speaker 2: carry for negative eight yards. Now we're getting two and

485
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:52,159
Speaker 2: a half, which I think holds a ton of value.

486
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:56,239
Speaker 2: So if you go back. So if he gets a

487
00:25:56,240 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 2: carry here, then he's more than likely to go over

488
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 2: two and a half rushing yards. He averaged five yards

489
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:06,560
Speaker 2: per carry during the regular season. In sixteen games. In

490
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 2: the regular season, he had twenty carries for one hundred

491
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:11,280
Speaker 2: and four yards, average of about five point two yards

492
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: per rush, and he had won for seven yards against

493
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,359
Speaker 2: Buffalo back in mid November. And this is Bill's defense

494
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,639
Speaker 2: that will give up explosive runs. So there's like a

495
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 2: chance that Worthy breaks one off here. So will there

496
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 2: be alts on his rushing yards over by the time

497
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: game kicks?

498
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 4: There might be there, there might not. There could be

499
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: just because it's the championship. Typically there wouldn't be, but

500
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:35,040
Speaker 4: there might be just because it is because it's such

501
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 4: a big game.

502
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't hate an all overlook too on his

503
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:41,679
Speaker 2: rushing yards. But if I so, am I confident that

504
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:46,679
Speaker 2: Worthy will get a rushing attempt? Yes, I don't know.

505
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 2: I would put it at my confidence level, and I'm

506
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:52,800
Speaker 2: not a prop expert. I would say I'm like eighty

507
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: percent confident that he gets a carry in this game.

508
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: So if you go back in and by the way,

509
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 2: that the spread is one that too, So the likelihood

510
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 2: of the Chiefs running away with this and being able

511
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 2: to just hey, we're going to hand it off and

512
00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 2: bleed the clock out and go super conservative is less

513
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 2: likely than some other games. Even you know, go back

514
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 2: to the Miami game last year, or even the Texans

515
00:27:16,200 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 2: game and they did have a comfortable lead at the end,

516
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 2: but if you go back Reeds prior to this season,

517
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 2: Kansas City has played in twenty playoff games since twenty sixteen,

518
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 2: so that spans the Mahomes era. In a couple Alex

519
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 2: Smith games, a pass catchers ran the ball in nineteen

520
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 2: of those games, including eighteen straight. The last time the

521
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs didn't give a carry to a non running backer

522
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,879
Speaker 2: quarterback was in the twenty eighteen AFC Championship game against

523
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 2: the Patriots. Worthy is easily your most likely candidate to

524
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 2: get the almost inevitable carry. We look at raw totals,

525
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 2: those pass catchers had thirty four rushing attempts across those

526
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 2: two games for two hundred and forty one yards. Single

527
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 2: game average of one point seven attempts for a little

528
00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:10,919
Speaker 2: over twelve yards. In total, nineteen pass catchers in twenty

529
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:15,760
Speaker 2: games have ran for at least three yards and one

530
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:18,240
Speaker 2: at least just one person has done it in sixteen

531
00:28:18,280 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: of the twenty. So I think there's a decent chance

532
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: he breaks on off. I think there's a really good

533
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 2: chance that he gets a carry, and I wouldn't be

534
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: shocked that gets more than one carry, which a pass

535
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,440
Speaker 2: catcher has done in seven of those twenty games. Tyreek

536
00:28:34,520 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 2: Hill got three carries in a handful of games, and

537
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: Kansas City's attempted more than one rush for the pass

538
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,280
Speaker 2: catcher in over half of those playoff games. Eleven of

539
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 2: the twenty a pass catchers had two, so in total,

540
00:28:50,880 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 2: they've had two or more non traditional rushing attempts. So yeah,

541
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 2: I think there's a good chance he gets this. I

542
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: think we're getting a discount in number after last week's

543
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 2: he got stuffed. Texas had a really good job of

544
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 2: sniffing out his run for a loss of eight yards.

545
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think anything up to three and a

546
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:13,920
Speaker 2: half is good here. And here's a good chance because look,

547
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 2: the other thing is in Hardman. Hardman's not going to

548
00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: be in the next He has a lot of these carries, oh,

549
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: in these games over the years, and the Chiefs do

550
00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 2: this every year. They're concentrating who they get the ball to, right,

551
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 2: and clearly Worthy is one of those guys that they

552
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: want to get the ball into his hands in as

553
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 2: many ways as possible. So give me Worthy over to

554
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 2: and f rushing Yarns.

555
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, so there's about he's averaging about one point two

556
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 4: carries a game. That doesn't mean he has to carry

557
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 4: in every game, but that would work out to about

558
00:29:50,040 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 4: a seventy percent chance that he gets at least one carry.

559
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 3: And that number has gone up.

560
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 4: So like if you if you kind of waited for

561
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 4: recency and you say, okay, through projection is poster one

562
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 4: point five, then it's like eighty percent chance he gets

563
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 4: a carry.

564
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: And so I'm not too far off of my eighty percent.

565
00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then fifteen of his twenty one carries have

566
00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 4: gone for at least three. Fourteen of his twenty one

567
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 4: have gone for at least four. So yeah, I think

568
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:23,120
Speaker 4: the odds are in your favor. I think I have

569
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: to bet this too. Actually that I look at this,

570
00:30:25,960 --> 00:30:26,440
Speaker 4: I like this.

571
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 2: Yeah. I also I'll throw on my next one. So

572
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 2: my final pick of the Sunday six pack is going

573
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 2: to be Noah Gray over thirteen and a half perceiving yards.

574
00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: I also like over one and a half catches. I

575
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: split them up. I'll go with receiving yards for this.

576
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 2: So look, do I want to Kelsey's Obviously, I just

577
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,320
Speaker 2: mentioned he is fourteen straight games of five at least

578
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 2: five catches at least seventy yards I know you, I

579
00:30:55,600 --> 00:30:59,280
Speaker 2: know Kerner. I know just for me looking at it

580
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 2: my back of the vote projections, I show value and

581
00:31:01,320 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 2: his under. Am I going to bet Travis Kelsey under

582
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 2: in the playoffs against a team that can't defend the

583
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 2: middle of the field with some injuries in the back end.

584
00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: Absolutely not. But I think I can indirectly fade him

585
00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: with Noah Gray. So the Bills definitely are going to

586
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,640
Speaker 2: game plan for Travis Kelcey now that other teams have too.

587
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 2: Doesn't slow him down, but all eyes are gonna be

588
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,520
Speaker 2: on Kelsey here, especially at though last week, So I

589
00:31:25,520 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 2: think that that might open up a couple of, you know,

590
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 2: wide open opportunities for no Gray. That's what happened in

591
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 2: the first meeting. Kelsey's only had two catches on four

592
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 2: targets I think for eight yards, and Noah grad four

593
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,560
Speaker 2: catches and two touchdowns in that game. So I think

594
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 2: this number is just deflated because Kelsey's number is inflated.

595
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: I think there's just like a little relationship there. So

596
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: I think this number is just too low because I

597
00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: think the Chiefs are gonna incessantly attack over the middle

598
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 2: of the field, where Buffalo is a bottom three defense

599
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: and now has some potential injuries. I mean, they're just

600
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: safeties can't cover their linebackers have some issues in that department.

601
00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 2: I do think the Chiefs go pass heavy, and I

602
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: think they attack the middle of the field. In his

603
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 2: past five postseason games, Gray is eleven catches on fourteen

604
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: targets for seventy nine yards, averaging about two point two

605
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 2: catches for just under sixteen yards. He's cleared his yardage

606
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 2: mark and his catch mark in four of his past

607
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: five playoff games, and like I said, small spread, this

608
00:32:31,160 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: is likely to be a competitive game throughout. I think

609
00:32:36,640 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: that he's just gonna find some holes in his zone

610
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 2: and they're gonna get him a couple of catches, and

611
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:44,800
Speaker 2: there's a chance that he's wide open down the field

612
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: a couple of times when Mahomes is buying time. So yeah,

613
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 2: I think that there's some value in this number for Gray.

614
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:57,320
Speaker 2: Similar to why I liked like not changing anything from

615
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 2: last week, I wanted to attack Washington's coverage against the

616
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: tight ends on with the porta and then I wanted

617
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 2: to attack the Bills middle of the field with likely

618
00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: and I'm going to do it again here with the

619
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 2: chief second tight end in Gray who. I think we'll

620
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 2: get enough snaps. I mean, I think we'll run like

621
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 2: in a game like this, and I kind of like

622
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: the over two, which is another reason I like this over.

623
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: I don't know, I think we'll run at least fifteen

624
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: routes in the game.

625
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, he's getting about forty five percent, a little bit

626
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 4: down from his peak, you know, before they got their

627
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 4: ideal receiving trio healthy. But yeah, he's about forty five

628
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 4: So you figure usually you get forty dropbacks plus out

629
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 4: of the chief So yeah.

630
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I also think it is plus sixteen plus percent.

631
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 4: Yeah.

632
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 2: The Bills have also really really struggled defending the pass

633
00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 2: out of heavy formations, so I think that this is

634
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 2: a if you're just going based off of the data,

635
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 2: this is a game where you might see the Chiefs up.

636
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 2: They're twelve personnel, so you might see more too tight

637
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 2: ends on the field, which the Bills have really struggled

638
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 2: to defend the pass. So I wouldn't be surprised if

639
00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:16,799
Speaker 2: he got closer to twenty.

640
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 3: Before I get into my final pick. Curious is to

641
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 3: your thoughts.

642
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 4: On how the Benford injury might affecting I mean, he

643
00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 4: might go one thing. I really did like that the

644
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 4: Bills did last week. You know, Babbage kind of in

645
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 4: game adjusted. So you're thinking, if Benford is out, they're

646
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 4: more likely to just kind of mug in the middle

647
00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 4: of the field and dare the outside guys to beat

648
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 4: him With eWOM and Douglas on the who's on the

649
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 4: other Yeah.

650
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 2: I don't know. It's a good question because then you

651
00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 2: might just say, let's play it even more conservative and

652
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: Ben don't break. But Elam is a guy that you I,

653
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,520
Speaker 2: in my opinion, is a better man corner than his

654
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 2: own corner. I mean that's what he played in what

655
00:34:57,640 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: he's known for in college. I don't know, But like

656
00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 2: you're back in there, so you might say, and your

657
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,080
Speaker 2: best corners not in there, so you might say let's

658
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: play and you might have you might have another safety injury.

659
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:08,600
Speaker 2: So I could see it going either way. Make them

660
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 2: march the field and play even more conservative, or screw it.

661
00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:15,760
Speaker 2: We can't defend in the middle field. We have these injuries.

662
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 2: Let's just be aggressive. Make them throw to their wide receivers.

663
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,000
Speaker 2: So it's a good question. I don't I don't know

664
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 2: the answer, to be honest.

665
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,880
Speaker 4: Because I mean the most important receiver is Worthy in

666
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 4: the SWAT and that would be Johnson anyway, So it's

667
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 4: like you could you know, you're you're essentially you want

668
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 4: to commit resources to the middle regardless. So yeah, I

669
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 4: just I'm trying to think of because you know, these playoffs,

670
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:40,799
Speaker 4: you know, certain teams are willing to kind of go

671
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 4: against tendency, and the Bills have shown they are. I

672
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:47,960
Speaker 4: thought that was one of the most fascinating matchups, you know,

673
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 4: heading into last week. So yeah, that's that is on

674
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 4: my radar, though I could see them just saying your

675
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 4: tackles aren't going to hold up. We dare you to

676
00:35:56,200 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 4: just target Hopkins and Brown outside against Douglaston.

677
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: I guess elam that that is something I'd be on

678
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 3: the lookout for.

679
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:05,600
Speaker 4: But either way, I mean, I don't think it hurts

680
00:36:05,600 --> 00:36:08,800
Speaker 4: Gray as much because you'd still be you know, Worth,

681
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,440
Speaker 4: Kelsey Worthy in that order, and then Gray would be

682
00:36:12,480 --> 00:36:15,480
Speaker 4: your third most you know, like you don't really care

683
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 4: about Gray.

684
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:17,759
Speaker 2: What are you saying in the in the game before

685
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: you get to your last pick, you.

686
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 3: Touched on it.

687
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 4: But I think the big key for me and nothing

688
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,439
Speaker 4: I make this about Chiefs just a little over minus one.

689
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:30,719
Speaker 4: But I think the Bills have an advantage here that

690
00:36:30,719 --> 00:36:32,399
Speaker 4: that could win them the game. And it's the fact

691
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,799
Speaker 4: that Josh Allen just hasn't been getting sacked. And if

692
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 4: you because you you mentioned it against Houston, Kansas City

693
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 4: allowed ten of seventeen third on third down. They allowed

694
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: Stroud to be pretty efficient throwing the ball. It was

695
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,359
Speaker 4: just he got sacked eight times thirty six point four

696
00:36:49,400 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 4: percent of pressures. They pressured him twenty two times. Eight

697
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 4: of those twenty two times thirty six percent, he got sacked.

698
00:36:55,560 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 4: Right now, Josh Allen historically good in terms of of

699
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 4: boiding sacks. This year regular season eight percent of his

700
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 4: pressures turning the sacks.

701
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 3: That was first in the league.

702
00:37:08,840 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 4: Stroud was at twenty two percent, thirty second out of

703
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:16,160
Speaker 4: forty four qualifiers include the postseason, and Allen's eight point

704
00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 4: seven percent. So you go from thirty six percent to

705
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:22,960
Speaker 4: like eight nine percent. That's a four x difference if

706
00:37:23,000 --> 00:37:25,239
Speaker 4: you go from like eight sacks to one or two

707
00:37:26,000 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 4: and then and then what's going to happen Alan's scrambling.

708
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 3: That's what happened in the first matchup.

709
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 4: They pressured him nineteen times. He got the ball off

710
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,920
Speaker 4: fourteen times and completed nine for ninety nine yards touchdown

711
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 4: at a pick. Not bad under pressure all things considered,

712
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 4: But he also scrambled five times. That's if that's your

713
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 4: only defense, what like, how are you stopping Buffalo at

714
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:54,240
Speaker 4: this point? You know, because, like you said, run defense

715
00:37:54,280 --> 00:37:57,880
Speaker 4: a little bit overrated. When when the ball actually gets released,

716
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:00,760
Speaker 4: they're they're they're good, and Spat will have some tricks

717
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 4: of this, but it's not like they're amazing. And you

718
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 4: know that Houston proved it last week. I mean Houston

719
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,520
Speaker 4: with one receiver, everyone really knew where it was going

720
00:38:10,000 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 4: and they really didn't use Schultz enough and they still,

721
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 4: you know, were efficient passing the ball.

722
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 3: So that's the.

723
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 4: Thing that I think Kansas City gets beat by for Buffalo.

724
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,719
Speaker 4: I think the way they get beat you mentioned it

725
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 4: like the turnover aggression, Right, what is Buffalo's been trying

726
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 4: to do all year? Spread the ball around? So this

727
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 4: is the type of game where okay, you're adding, you know,

728
00:38:33,560 --> 00:38:36,439
Speaker 4: you're bat your rookie backup, running back, touch the ball

729
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,839
Speaker 4: around the goal one, you're reading your third down back.

730
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 4: You know, get seven eight touches the game these days,

731
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 4: and Ty Johnson, you're letting you know, hurd of Samuel

732
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,239
Speaker 4: Matt howein's Amari Cooper who's been getting no run so

733
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 4: he's rusty. I mean, how many times he had the

734
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 4: ball in his hands in the past months, like all

735
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 4: these guys. Does one of those guys fumble or something,

736
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:57,960
Speaker 4: you know, in a key moment, that's that's that's it

737
00:38:58,040 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 4: for Buffalo. But for Kansas City, I mean, if they

738
00:39:00,640 --> 00:39:03,960
Speaker 4: don't get sacks, Buffalo might not be super efficient.

739
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 3: But I think with Josh Allen scrambling, they have.

740
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 2: Enough Alan could certainly win this game.

741
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:11,000
Speaker 3: All right.

742
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 4: So my third pick, the sixth overall of the conference

743
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 4: championship six pack, I'm going to Isaiah Pacheco under eleven

744
00:39:20,000 --> 00:39:25,360
Speaker 4: and a half for his longest rush. And this is

745
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,320
Speaker 4: one I really like because I think the market for

746
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:33,360
Speaker 4: weeks now has been over estimating the amount of volume

747
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 4: that Pacheco is going to get. But at the same time,

748
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:37,880
Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs have started to go away from

749
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,359
Speaker 4: him a little bit more. We saw him only get

750
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:43,600
Speaker 4: five carries in that game against Houston, and generally he'll

751
00:39:43,640 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 4: get some carries you know, first and ten early in

752
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 4: the game, and that's why the you know, the books

753
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 4: keep putting them up at you know, nine ten carries,

754
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:53,920
Speaker 4: but in the second half the Chiefs have just gone

755
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 4: away from him and gone toward Kareem Hunt.

756
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 3: And I see why because.

757
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,919
Speaker 4: Doesn't need Tony at left guard as much I think

758
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 4: as Pichecko does. And the numbers kind of bear that out.

759
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 4: So since Tony moved to left tackle, Pachecko just thirty

760
00:40:12,920 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 4: three carries for ninety four yards two point eight yards

761
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 4: per carry along of ten.

762
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 3: But when Tony was.

763
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 4: At guard, four point three yards per carry on the

764
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:26,399
Speaker 4: long of thirty four on fifty five carries, So night

765
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 4: and day for Pacheco.

766
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 3: He also doesn't look as explosive. He's been.

767
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 4: Under eleven and a half for his longest rush in

768
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,800
Speaker 4: seven of eight games. He's been under ten and a

769
00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:41,719
Speaker 4: half in six of his eight games. Only one of

770
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 4: his eighty eight carries this season has gone for more

771
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 4: than eleven yards, and only two of his eighty eight

772
00:40:47,200 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 4: carries this year have gone for longer than ten yards. So,

773
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 4: you know, Buffalo not the greatest run defense, but Pachecko's

774
00:40:56,920 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 4: really struggling. He's not seeing the field well and the

775
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:06,000
Speaker 4: way Hunt's running, there's also a possibility that they start

776
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 4: going away from Pacheco more earlier than they have in

777
00:41:10,520 --> 00:41:12,799
Speaker 4: the past. And the thing about Pacheco when it comes

778
00:41:12,840 --> 00:41:17,319
Speaker 4: to these longest run props is that the defense kind

779
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 4: of knows what's up when he's in the game because

780
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:22,319
Speaker 4: he's usually not playing on third downs, and so he

781
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 4: doesn't get those you know, okay lined up in shotgun

782
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:28,959
Speaker 4: it's like second and long or third and long or whatever,

783
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 4: you know, passing down type situation where you can just

784
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 4: break off a long one because the defense is playing

785
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 4: in the past, he doesn't really get those opportunities because

786
00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 4: you have Hunt and you have p Ryan taking up

787
00:41:37,040 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 4: most of those kind of snaps. So I really like

788
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 4: this Pachecko under eleven and a half longest rush I

789
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 4: show value at ten and a half as well, but

790
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,240
Speaker 4: eleven and a half this is like a sixty percent

791
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 4: hit plus for me projected. And that's even if I

792
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,560
Speaker 4: bump his carries up because I'm a carried below the market.

793
00:41:55,560 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 4: I'm at seven and a half. The market's at eight

794
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 4: and a half. Even if I do it at eight

795
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 4: and a half, six about sixty percent to the under

796
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 4: at eleven and a half. So give me Pichecko under

797
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 4: eleven and a half longest rush.

798
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, my only push back. I get to play Devil's

799
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: advocate because I like the thought process of fading Pachecko because,

800
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 2: as you alluded to, his efficiencies plummeted and over the

801
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 2: past month or so, not sure if he's fully healthy.

802
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 2: Part of that might be tuney, as you said, but

803
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,440
Speaker 2: the Bills will like stuff runs at an above average rate,

804
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 2: but they also give up a lot of explosive runts.

805
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:32,799
Speaker 2: So that would be my only fear, like why not

806
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:39,680
Speaker 2: bade him more? In the efficiency market, so like carries

807
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,240
Speaker 2: or total yards, like I was looking at total rushing

808
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:46,839
Speaker 2: plus receiving yards under forty four forty five ish, because

809
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to get as many looks

810
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 2: he's not as efficient. But my fear is that the

811
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 2: Bills do give up an above average rate of like

812
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 2: ten plus yard runs. It's my fear is he just

813
00:42:56,000 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: breaks one. That's my only pushback.

814
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 4: So in these kind of markets like that's so that's

815
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:06,319
Speaker 4: kind of like from the from a mathematical standpoint, like

816
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:10,680
Speaker 4: let's say it's all about the carry volume and the efficiency,

817
00:43:10,800 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 4: so like, yes, it might feel more comfortable to fade

818
00:43:13,920 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 4: his uh, you know, yardage or his carried I might.

819
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,040
Speaker 2: But what about the specific matchup because they either stuff

820
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,399
Speaker 2: runs or give up a big one is like how

821
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 2: they kind of profile.

822
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, but you can like so yeah, that there is

823
00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 4: there's just not as much predictivity in that specific like

824
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 4: there's a little bit like but it's there's not as

825
00:43:33,239 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 4: much in just the overall efficiency. So like, yes, whatever

826
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 4: Buffalo's like efficiency adjustment is, you know, matchup wise, like

827
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: it does add a little bit to Pacheco's like yards

828
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:44,879
Speaker 4: per carry or whatever, and but that then that goes

829
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,880
Speaker 4: into calculating his long and that's like I have pro

830
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:52,920
Speaker 4: Checo at at uh if I give him like nine

831
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 4: carries at four point one, I have him at four

832
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:57,920
Speaker 4: point one. And that's because Buffalo can give up some

833
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 4: explosives and like he's still going under like that that's

834
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 4: you know, and like really he's averaging two point eight

835
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 4: in the last four games since town he moved to

836
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 4: left tackle.

837
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,440
Speaker 3: But you know you're never gonna model quite that low.

838
00:44:12,120 --> 00:44:15,480
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, right, yeah, so because you your model

839
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 2: at these your model. That's just that that kind of

840
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,359
Speaker 2: shows a little behind the curtain of how the math

841
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 2: works when I'm betting my props. It's more than I

842
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 2: like that props and playoffs. I'm I'm just looking more subjectives.

843
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 2: But that makes sense from a math standpoint.

844
00:44:32,200 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 3: You got two bets on this one.

845
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 4: You got the Worthy over two and a half rush yards,

846
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:41,960
Speaker 4: no Gray over thirteen and a half receiving, So which

847
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 4: what's your order for? And then you have Goddard over

848
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 4: three and a half receptions from god.

849
00:44:47,440 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 2: Her Worthy and then Gray, and uh, how about you?

850
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,440
Speaker 4: I'll go p checko under the ERT's over is my

851
00:44:57,480 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 4: top two? So two point we do two points for

852
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 4: our top two or a point for a third and

853
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: auto Commanders plus six and a half for my third.

854
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 3: All right, let's get.

855
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,319
Speaker 4: Into our coaches pep talk and then we'll have a

856
00:45:10,360 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 4: long shot.

857
00:45:11,040 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 3: So stay tuned.

858
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:13,799
Speaker 2: You keep playing the way you're playing.

859
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 3: We're gonna get an ass feet again to that, and

860
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 3: don't stopped right now. All right, this week's coach is

861
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:20,719
Speaker 3: pep talk.

862
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 4: Comes to it from Gene Hackman from the nineteen eighty

863
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:29,120
Speaker 4: six classic Hoosiers, and we're dedicating it to we want

864
00:45:29,160 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 4: to dedicate this to I guess the Washington Commanders.

865
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 2: Now let's dedicate it to Zader Worthy of getting in

866
00:45:33,520 --> 00:45:35,279
Speaker 2: the end zone. A little teaser for what's coming up,

867
00:45:35,280 --> 00:45:38,399
Speaker 2: because who's a half yard short? Last week of hitting

868
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:42,720
Speaker 2: our long shot of Worthy and likely anytime touchdown parlay.

869
00:45:43,520 --> 00:45:47,120
Speaker 3: All right, exam you Worthy, There you go. There's a.

870
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:52,279
Speaker 1: Tradition and tournament play, and not talk about the next

871
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:53,080
Speaker 1: step until.

872
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 2: You've climbed the one in front of you.

873
00:45:55,200 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 1: I'm sure going to the state finals is beyond.

874
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,120
Speaker 2: Your wildest dream, so let's just keep it right there.

875
00:46:00,280 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 2: Forget about the crowds, the size of.

876
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: The school, their fancy uniforms, and remember what got you here.

877
00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:11,399
Speaker 1: Focus on the fundamentals that we've gone over time and

878
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,520
Speaker 1: time again, and most important, don't get caught up thinking

879
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 1: about winning or losing this game. If you put your

880
00:46:17,760 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 1: effort and concentration into playing to your potential, that'll.

881
00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:21,440
Speaker 3: Be the best that you can be.

882
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 2: I don't care what the scoreboard.

883
00:46:23,200 --> 00:46:24,280
Speaker 3: Says at the end of the game.

884
00:46:24,680 --> 00:46:33,320
Speaker 2: In my book, we're going to be winners. Okay, all right,

885
00:46:34,560 --> 00:46:34,920
Speaker 2: let's go.

886
00:46:36,040 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 3: Let's go funny here.

887
00:46:41,600 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 4: The best of luck Xavier Worthy this weekend around the

888
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:46,600
Speaker 4: goal line.

889
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 3: Now it's time for our money line.

890
00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 2: Parley, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

891
00:46:57,719 --> 00:46:59,240
Speaker 2: the money line parlay.

892
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 4: If you're watching or listening on your phone and you

893
00:47:03,640 --> 00:47:06,839
Speaker 4: want to instantly tail any of today's picks, just go

894
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:10,560
Speaker 4: to the episode description. We've got links for all those picks.

895
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 4: If you click the links on your mobile device, the

896
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 4: betting app for that pick will open with the bet

897
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:22,040
Speaker 4: slip for that pick. So just go to the episode

898
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 4: description and find the quick slip links and you can

899
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:27,520
Speaker 4: tail instantly.

900
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 3: All right, stuck.

901
00:47:28,520 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 4: So, yeah, you had a nice hit on the last

902
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:36,840
Speaker 4: last play with Isaiah likely anytime touchdown at four to one,

903
00:47:37,840 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 4: came up just short with Worthy. But you're gonna you're

904
00:47:41,480 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 4: gonna go back to the well essentially this week.

905
00:47:44,040 --> 00:47:46,359
Speaker 2: With you anytime touchdown. I think they want to get

906
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:50,120
Speaker 2: them looks. Run game, pass game, It's gonna have opportunities.

907
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 2: Two to one. It's a good number.

908
00:47:52,200 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, Yeah.

909
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 2: The run.

910
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 4: The run game is crucial too, because he's getting his

911
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,960
Speaker 4: rushing scores this year are from three and then I

912
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,399
Speaker 4: think two from twenty one yards out each, So he's

913
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 4: getting those attempts you.

914
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:04,560
Speaker 3: Know where it matters too.

915
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:06,759
Speaker 4: So that's another thing about his rush attempts, and that

916
00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 4: tends to be more predictive like Sticky like when a

917
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:15,160
Speaker 4: non running back gets rushing touchdowns and rushing red zone carries,

918
00:48:15,520 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 4: that tends to, you know, view less variants than if

919
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:19,960
Speaker 4: it's just any random running back.

920
00:48:20,040 --> 00:48:21,319
Speaker 3: So like worthy as.

921
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 2: Well, I'm gonna have this too, and just in cases

922
00:48:23,160 --> 00:48:26,279
Speaker 2: one carry is two yards for a touchdown from the

923
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:29,400
Speaker 2: two and at least I'll have that they cover the

924
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:30,880
Speaker 2: over two and a half yards.

925
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 3: There you go, and then I'm gonna go.

926
00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 4: So I got an interesting I'm curious to hear your

927
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 4: thoughts on this, but I'm gonna go with the Eagles

928
00:48:38,719 --> 00:48:42,920
Speaker 4: to have more punts than the Commanders at plus two

929
00:48:43,040 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 4: sixty five. Now, Washington in all this entire year, about

930
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 4: half the time, they've had fewer punts than their opponents.

931
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:58,360
Speaker 4: In the postseason, they punted once, their opponents are punted

932
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 4: three times. But Philadelpha has punted nine times in this

933
00:49:03,000 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 4: postseason and their opponents have punted only seven times. And

934
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,840
Speaker 4: Philadelphia's won both of their games, so they had a five.

935
00:49:09,239 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 4: They punted three more times in Green Bay despite winning

936
00:49:12,280 --> 00:49:14,479
Speaker 4: twenty two to ten, and then last week the rams

937
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,040
Speaker 4: A only punted once more than though, So my thinking

938
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 4: is Washington's gonna go for it almost any chance they get.

939
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 4: But Philadelphia plays the exact opposite way. They play conservative.

940
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:27,040
Speaker 4: They're just gonna rely on their defense. They're gonna trust

941
00:49:27,040 --> 00:49:30,399
Speaker 4: their run game and their defense. And if Philadelphia gets up,

942
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 4: like let's say, you know, they break up a couple

943
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 4: of long runs, they're probably more likely to punt because

944
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 4: they're gonna play conservative. But if they get down, they're

945
00:49:38,960 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 4: also not that much less likely to punt because they're conservative.

946
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 4: So I think both game scripts could kind of lend

947
00:49:45,600 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 4: itself to this one. In that second meeting that the

948
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:52,680
Speaker 4: thirty six thirty three Washington comeback Eagles four punts, Man,

949
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 4: there's only two.

950
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 2: I like it. Yeah, maybe it hurts. You're less likely

951
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,319
Speaker 2: to be a little more aggressive with the touch push,

952
00:49:58,400 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 2: like on your own side of the field or something

953
00:50:00,440 --> 00:50:03,120
Speaker 2: with the hurts injury. Yeah, And I can see them

954
00:50:03,120 --> 00:50:05,879
Speaker 2: being up late a couple of punts. Washington drive the field,

955
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 2: goes for it on fourth down, doesn't get it, Washington

956
00:50:08,280 --> 00:50:10,879
Speaker 2: Eagles punt back to them, Washington drive the field goes

957
00:50:10,880 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 2: for it on fourth down again, Like, you can pick

958
00:50:12,880 --> 00:50:16,359
Speaker 2: up a couple late too when Washington's not So I

959
00:50:16,440 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 2: like it. I think there's good value there all right.

960
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 4: So if you're probably with those two together, you get

961
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:24,480
Speaker 4: a plus nine to ninety five worthy plus two hundred

962
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 4: anytime touchdown and Eagles to record more punts at plus

963
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:34,000
Speaker 4: to sixty five. That's gonna wrap it up for us.

964
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 4: Thank you for listening. You can hear more of me

965
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 4: every week with my guy Sean Kerner talking Fantasy DFS

966
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,000
Speaker 4: player projections and touchdowns on the.

967
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 3: Fantasy Flex podcast.

968
00:50:42,120 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 4: We'll have the Touchdown special dropping this Thursday, and Stucky

969
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 4: you can hear him talking college hoops over on the

970
00:50:49,040 --> 00:50:53,279
Speaker 4: Big Bets on Campus podcast. Stuck is on X at

971
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,919
Speaker 4: Stucky two. I'm at Chris Raybond, who racked those same

972
00:50:55,920 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 4: handles on the free award winning Action Network app the

973
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 4: Conference Championships.

974
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:10,960
Speaker 3: Let's Get this Money let Go.

975
00:51:12,840 --> 00:51:16,319
Speaker 4: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

976
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,560
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

977
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,480
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

978
00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:23,320
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