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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game Jewish prow read

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Speaker 1: enough they're running a game so smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 2: Clim mid sixteen, just glorious extacution.

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Speaker 3: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 3: thousand percent of the time. How shot with that shop

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Speaker 3: with mind of buddy, and that's why you see you.

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Speaker 4: As beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous a mount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody pictionable.

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Speaker 5: Shut up, I'm trying. The love is left to.

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Speaker 3: One of the wide eyed, drilled bibused.

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Speaker 1: How on earth did that happened?

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Speaker 5: Hello everyone, Welcome back to Wondergoo Soccer Betting podcast from

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Speaker 5: the Action Network, presented to you by Bet three six five,

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Speaker 5: the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign up with Permo Code

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Speaker 5: Action to get our exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey, Virginia, Colorado,

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Speaker 5: and Ohio. Bet one dollar on any game to get

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Speaker 5: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Monday's Michael Lilee Buff

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Speaker 5: joining me in just a moment will be BJ Cunningham

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Speaker 5: and Anthony Da Bundo, and together the three of us

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Speaker 5: will go on a little handicapping adventure through the midweek slate.

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Speaker 5: Of Premier League matches. There's some Liliga business to attend

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Speaker 5: to as well. Then we'll give out our favorite underdog

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Speaker 5: pick for the midweek. We've got a three leg parlay

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Speaker 5: that pays out one hundred and twenty three to one,

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Speaker 5: and then we will talk about our favorite bets. But

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Speaker 5: first we will talk about the headline match of the

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Speaker 5: season to date. Manchester City minus one eighty two hosting

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Speaker 5: Arsenal plus four to seventy five. The draws plus three

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Speaker 5: thirty three. Arsenal sitting on seventy five points. They are

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Speaker 5: still top to the table. They play thirty two matches.

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Speaker 5: They are five points ahead of City, who we are

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Speaker 5: have seventy points, though City have only played thirty matches

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Speaker 5: in the Premier League. City minus four point fifty to

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Speaker 5: win the title now Arsenal plus three thirty three.

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Speaker 3: I remember, remember I said every week it's a good

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Speaker 3: time to add more to your city positions.

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Speaker 5: It still is.

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Speaker 2: Why not do it and there's still time, just still

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Speaker 2: do it.

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Speaker 5: Bj heared Arsenal fants. So we're gonna start with Anthony first.

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Speaker 5: Of course, Arsenal's coming off. If you listen to our

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Speaker 5: show on from last week We've talked about Southampton. I

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Speaker 5: had Southampton as a sixteen to one underdog, put them

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Speaker 5: in the three leg parlay and they blew a three

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Speaker 5: to one lead to Arsenal. It was how many uninspiring

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Speaker 5: performances in a row has this been for Arsenal, Anthony

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Speaker 5: when you think about the pressure building and I talked

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Speaker 5: about how we don't a lot of handicappers for good reason,

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Speaker 5: don't really weigh the human l element, the pressure element

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Speaker 5: to spots like this. But Arsenal have now drawn three

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Speaker 5: games in a row. One was a fight back, like

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Speaker 5: they rescued a point against twentieth place Southampton, but the

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Speaker 5: other two they blew multiple leads. Where the like? Where

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Speaker 5: are they? And is this just a case of if

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Speaker 5: you're betting Arsenal, you're just hoping It's one of those

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Speaker 5: instances where you know, the thing that nobody sees coming

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Speaker 5: is when ends up happening in sports.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look from a numbers perspective, the amount of

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Speaker 3: market respect City has right now is about as high

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Speaker 3: as I've seen a team rated since I've been betting soccer.

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Speaker 1: Think about the.

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Speaker 3: Fact that this team was now a road favorite at

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Speaker 3: Bayern Munich while holding a three goal aggregate lead in

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Speaker 3: the Champions League last Wednesday. I mean, I don't know

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Speaker 3: what I thought that enough ended in a draw, but

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Speaker 3: they probably shouldn't want it. Yeah, like I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: the reality is the last two more on, City has

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Speaker 3: been on a different level from everybody else in the league,

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Speaker 3: and that's reflected in this number because they've had this

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Speaker 3: look ahead up at various books for the last.

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Speaker 2: Two weeks pretty much and it has steadily ticked up.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Arsenal was our City was minus one forty

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Speaker 3: one fifty one sixty, then it jumped to minus one ninety.

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Speaker 3: Now you're looking at you know, settling in around one

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Speaker 3: eighty one eighty five. I only make this about minus

78
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Speaker 3: one forty, so I really can't get to City here.

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Speaker 2: Laying the goal.

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Speaker 3: But that being said, I mean with Holland finishing the

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Speaker 3: way he does, you know, beating expected goals, and then

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Speaker 3: the fact that they're now plus one point three extra

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Speaker 3: difference per ninety since the World Cup. You know, we

84
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Speaker 3: talked about how City weren't playing as well coming out

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Speaker 3: of the break and really weren't getting the same number

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Speaker 3: of shots and the attack was worse. Well, they have

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Speaker 3: clearly figured some things out here with this crew. A

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Speaker 3: lot of it is just having everybody healthy at the

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Speaker 3: same time certainly helps. But Pep and his tinkering seems

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Speaker 3: to have found a system that really.

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Speaker 2: Works for this team.

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Speaker 3: But that being said, this total is inflated in my opinion,

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Speaker 3: and I'm betting the under now. And I know I've

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Speaker 3: been banging the drum all all the last two months

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Speaker 3: about Arsenal and how their defense was overvalued.

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Speaker 2: The first meeting wasn't that long ago.

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Speaker 3: The total was two and a half at the Emirates.

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Speaker 3: Now we go to the etti head and it's three.

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Speaker 3: And I understand the reason. I mean, OPTA has a

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Speaker 3: chart up. The first eighteen games of the season, Arsenal

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Speaker 3: gave up about point seven to eight goals per match, about.

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Speaker 2: Point nine to four XG per match, and about eight point.

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Speaker 3: Seven shots, and they had one of the lowest shot

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Speaker 3: quality allowed in the league.

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Speaker 2: That was the first eighteen games.

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Speaker 3: Now the last thirteen games, Arsenal conceded one point three

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Speaker 3: goals per match, which is a lot one point three XG.

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Speaker 3: So they're no longer running hot like they were. You know,

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Speaker 3: they've come down to earth on that from a shot

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Speaker 3: stopping perspective. They're allowing more shots and a higher shot

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Speaker 3: quality per game. And you know, teams have figured out

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Speaker 3: and changed, you know, as to how they're playing and

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Speaker 3: figured out some things.

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Speaker 2: But I just think that at.

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Speaker 3: Three now this total is inflated. And we saw Pep

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Speaker 3: change his tactics a little bit in the first leg

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Speaker 3: and actually let Arsenal have the ball. I don't know

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Speaker 3: that that'll happen again because of the fact that it's

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Speaker 3: at City now. But Pep also doubled up on the

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Speaker 3: wide players. He said, Martin, Ellie and Soaka are not

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Speaker 3: going to beat me at all.

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Speaker 2: We are not going to let it happen, gonna dare

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Speaker 2: you know?

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Speaker 3: In this case it was Jesus last meeting Eddie Nikattia

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Speaker 3: to beat me in the middle.

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Speaker 2: And I don't know, given Jesus's form.

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Speaker 3: Right now, that that's going to happen. So I'm betting

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Speaker 3: the under here holding my nose. Arsenal did not attempt

129
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Speaker 3: a shot from open play in the final fifty minutes

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Speaker 3: of the match in the first match, and that was

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Speaker 3: at home. The first two goals both came off of

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Speaker 3: direct gifts from defenses. Like I think this total is

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Speaker 3: now inflated at three, and so I'm gonna be on

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Speaker 3: the under holding my nose and hoping Holland, who owns

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Speaker 3: me generally, doesn't own me once again.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't hate the look on the draw here.

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Speaker 5: I think City, yeah, of course didn't want to win

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Speaker 5: this match, but just the way sets up, it could

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Speaker 5: be pretty low event a point here actually is fine

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Speaker 5: now and losing is not. So I could be like

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Speaker 5: a little bit more pragmatic from Pep from that way.

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Speaker 5: From that standpoint, but also I just think that these

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Speaker 5: two teams, like, yeah, Arsenal is struggling defensively of late,

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Speaker 5: but they're struggling relative to where they were just the

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Speaker 5: first eighteen games, not like they're putting up, you know,

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Speaker 5: terrible numbers here there. They are conceding a lot of

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Speaker 5: goals lately. But I think that at some point that

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Speaker 5: will come down and I could see a pretty much

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Speaker 5: a rock fight here, and like you said, the numbers

150
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Speaker 5: getting inflated into people thinking because these are one versus two,

151
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Speaker 5: we'll see the back and forth thrillers that City and

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Speaker 5: Liverpool have playeds at times in the past, but I

153
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Speaker 5: don't see that here. I could see one one very

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Speaker 5: as a very plausible outcome. So I don't look like

155
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Speaker 5: I don't hate a look at the draw plus three

156
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Speaker 5: thirty three and it's no one's gonna be on it,

157
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Speaker 5: So rush to get there I and bet it right away. BJ.

158
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Speaker 5: Now that we've gotten our thoughts out of the way,

159
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Speaker 5: I guess the floor is yours, as the guy who's

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Speaker 5: said all along that Arsenal are not gonna They're not

161
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Speaker 5: gonna be able to do it. They're not gonna be

162
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Speaker 5: able to stand the city push down the stretch, And

163
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Speaker 5: it looks like you were right.

164
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Speaker 2: Is it time to panic?

165
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Speaker 1: I don't know if it's time to panic yet.

166
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Speaker 4: If we lose this match, then yes, it's absolutely panic time.

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Speaker 1: I did tweet that after the second goal I.

168
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Speaker 4: Saw I tweeted after after you know, and you know

169
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Speaker 4: something that would help along the front with the Arsenal

170
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Speaker 4: if they just stopped conceding inside the first thirty seconds,

171
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Speaker 4: you know, that could be away out of here. But no,

172
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Speaker 4: I think in this specific match, what is very important

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Speaker 4: is who was available for Arsenal. We don't know the

174
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Speaker 4: status of Saliba right now. It looks pretty doubtful at

175
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Speaker 4: this point. If he's going to play. Shaka missed the

176
00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:54,280
Speaker 4: match in Southampton with an illness, it looks like he's

177
00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:57,600
Speaker 4: gonna be well enough to play, and Zinchenko came back

178
00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,520
Speaker 4: in the lineup, which is very very big for how

179
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Speaker 4: Arsenal wants to build up. And Anthony mentioned the last

180
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Speaker 4: meeting where City only controlled thirty seven percent possession, let

181
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Speaker 4: Arsenal have the ball and then press them very effectively

182
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:11,520
Speaker 4: when Arsenal tried to get in their buil up play

183
00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,640
Speaker 4: and City became the more transitional team and it was

184
00:09:13,760 --> 00:09:16,720
Speaker 4: very very effective against Arsenal. I understand that expected goals

185
00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:18,840
Speaker 4: in the end, you know, bared out to be pretty

186
00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,719
Speaker 4: even although Arsenal did have a penalty. But I think

187
00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:25,360
Speaker 4: Arsenal needs to go back to what they did in

188
00:09:25,400 --> 00:09:29,080
Speaker 4: the second meeting with Manchester City last season, where they

189
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,560
Speaker 4: let City have the ball, they defended very very well

190
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 4: in their own area and then they just looked for

191
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:38,240
Speaker 4: direct counter attacking opportunities and getting Martinelli and Soaka in

192
00:09:38,320 --> 00:09:43,120
Speaker 4: space could prove to be a winning combination for Arsenal

193
00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 4: because it looks like Nathan Akay is going to be

194
00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:47,920
Speaker 4: out for Manchester City, which is very very big because

195
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,160
Speaker 4: he's not their best defender.

196
00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:52,080
Speaker 1: But he is their most versatile defender to may be able.

197
00:09:51,960 --> 00:09:55,920
Speaker 4: To play multiple positions, defend in wide areas Laporte is.

198
00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:58,880
Speaker 4: You know, he's an okay defender in space. He's not horrible,

199
00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,680
Speaker 4: but he's definitely a downgrade what Aki provides for Manchester City,

200
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,520
Speaker 4: and it's going to be defending one on one, likely

201
00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,480
Speaker 4: mostly with Sokka. If Arsenal is able to create their

202
00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,520
Speaker 4: box midfield, it will create those one on one opportunities

203
00:10:10,559 --> 00:10:11,200
Speaker 4: out wide.

204
00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:13,880
Speaker 1: So I think that's what.

205
00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:15,600
Speaker 4: Arsenal really needs to do if they want to be

206
00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,839
Speaker 4: successful in this match. Now, Sante's point, what Pep has

207
00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,360
Speaker 4: kind of changed something we've talked about is that he's

208
00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:23,920
Speaker 4: playing four center backs on the pitch right now, and

209
00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 4: even against Bayern Munich in that second leg he went

210
00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:29,960
Speaker 4: with a three two four one, and so essentially when

211
00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 4: you know Roger is essentially like another center back as well.

212
00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:35,040
Speaker 4: So when you have five players on the pitch that

213
00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,600
Speaker 4: are versatile enough to play both midfield positions and build

214
00:10:37,640 --> 00:10:40,200
Speaker 4: up but also play essentially a back five, you can

215
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 4: press five guys onto Arsenal's back line. So without Saliba,

216
00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,080
Speaker 4: it's very concerning for aust I'd like to see them

217
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,520
Speaker 4: slot Ben White back into a center back position, maybe

218
00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:52,040
Speaker 4: play Tyrannyant a position a right back.

219
00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 1: Who knows.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, like Anthony said, I don't see City conceding

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Speaker 4: a ton of possession Arsenal. I think Arsenal's been past

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Speaker 4: this path to success is to be very, very direct

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Speaker 4: and transitional and defend their own penalty area and stop

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Speaker 4: with the freaking mistakes because that's really what's boiled down

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Speaker 4: do for Arsenal. Like they sustained a ton of pressure

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Speaker 4: against Southampton. I understand Cities a completely different opponent than that,

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Speaker 4: but for the majority of the match they were sustaining pressure,

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Speaker 4: they were the better side, and then just dumb mistakes

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Speaker 4: and conceding off set piece.

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Speaker 1: This is what did them in. So I like Arsenal

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Speaker 1: plus one.

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Speaker 4: To Anthony's point, City has been a plus one point

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Speaker 4: three expected gold differential per ninety this this season. Arsenal's

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Speaker 4: been plus point nine, so City has been ero point

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Speaker 4: four goals better. Home field advantage in the Premier League

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Speaker 4: is around zero point three x G, so I have

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Speaker 4: Cities spread projected at minus point seven to two, so

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Speaker 4: Arsenal plus one minus one ten are better does have

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Speaker 4: value City, like Anthey said, City.

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Speaker 1: Is overvalued in the market.

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Speaker 4: Right now, I'm nervous, like as a phantom, incredibly nervous,

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Speaker 4: because this is not a good situation that we put

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Speaker 4: ourselves in.

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Speaker 1: It's just it's it's not good.

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Speaker 4: So I really hope Arsenal can get a draw and

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Speaker 4: uh not just completely concede this thing before we even

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Speaker 4: get to May.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I guess the market moves towards Arsenal if

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Speaker 3: they can get a point here, But.

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Speaker 1: I mean a little bit.

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Speaker 3: I used to have Newcastle the way and Brighton coming

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Speaker 3: up the next.

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Speaker 2: Couple of weeks. Uh, City is going to be a

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Speaker 2: really tough running.

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Speaker 4: Yep, City's got to go to Brighton and then they

256
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Speaker 4: got to go to Brentford on the final day. So

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Speaker 4: if you're an Arsenal fan out there, those are our

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Speaker 4: two saving graces. We need something from those matches and

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Speaker 4: we need to have a good run in here at

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Speaker 4: the end.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, and you guys got through Southampton,

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Speaker 5: so that, yeah.

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Speaker 1: You know, we.

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Speaker 4: Like that point is obviously crucial and everything, but it's

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Speaker 4: just like, come on, like you got to play better

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Speaker 4: than that and and take care of business. So but hey,

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Speaker 4: we rescued the point it's all good might end up

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Speaker 4: being a very crucial point in the end.

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Speaker 5: Spurs and United City in Arsenal is on Wednesday, Spurs

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Speaker 5: United Thursday. We were jumping around a little bit to

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Speaker 5: get to these headliners first, so you guys can listen

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Speaker 5: to these and then don't have to listen to us

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Speaker 5: talk about everydon later in the show. You just dip

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Speaker 5: out whenever you want, dynam What a showing, Anthony.

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Speaker 2: It was beautiful.

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Speaker 5: That was something special. I guess Newcastle this weekend there

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Speaker 5: plus one eighty seven at home hosting United plus one

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Speaker 5: thirty seven to draw is plus two sixty. I want

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Speaker 5: to bet Spurs so badly here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah I know me too, but I can't. Yeah I can't,

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Speaker 3: but I can't. I could, but I won't. It's very difficult.

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Speaker 3: I'm very glad. I just sat in silence. I had

283
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Speaker 3: the game muted and I was about to turn on

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Speaker 3: the sound and then they scored the goal and I

285
00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:51,760
Speaker 3: was like, you know what, let me just sit quietly

286
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:55,560
Speaker 3: and watch this diabolical first half and then I turned

287
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Speaker 3: it off. But yeah, I mean, Tottenham try a revolutionary

288
00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,320
Speaker 3: style going back to the back four with two fullbacks who.

289
00:14:01,200 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 2: Don't defend playing. Uh, you know, a team.

290
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Speaker 3: That loves to press and cause high turnovers against you know,

291
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,040
Speaker 3: bad ball playing players, and they paid the price for it,

292
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Speaker 3: no doubt it was. It was a poor showing. But

293
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Speaker 3: it's a little bit different at home against United. You know,

294
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,160
Speaker 3: the first the first meeting was all man United. It

295
00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 3: was really the coming out party for me with realizing

296
00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:27,560
Speaker 3: that United was finally looking like a ten hog team.

297
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:30,800
Speaker 3: But I really don't expect Todd him to have that

298
00:14:30,800 --> 00:14:32,520
Speaker 3: same approach again that they did today. I think they're

299
00:14:32,520 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 3: gonna go back to the back five, Like I know,

300
00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,040
Speaker 3: the story is gonna be defense after today giving up

301
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Speaker 3: you know, six goals whatever.

302
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,040
Speaker 2: But really, since the World Cup, the attack has been

303
00:14:41,040 --> 00:14:43,040
Speaker 2: the bigger problem for Todd and still true.

304
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,120
Speaker 3: They conceded about one point one five x g P

305
00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,520
Speaker 3: ninety since the World Cup, which is not elite but

306
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:50,840
Speaker 3: not bad. I mean it's actually right around what Arsenal

307
00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 3: has conceded since the World Cup, so you know, it's pretty.

308
00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:54,840
Speaker 2: Similar in terms of numbers.

309
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:57,680
Speaker 3: But the attack's only producing one point one seven xt

310
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Speaker 3: g since the World Cup.

311
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Speaker 5: Uh.

312
00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 3: You know, Tottenham has some issues here with the defensive

313
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:06,000
Speaker 3: injuries and with the fact that they have to play

314
00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:09,840
Speaker 3: pooroh against Rashford, like that's not great. United midfield really

315
00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:12,440
Speaker 3: kind of overwhelmed them in the last meeting, pushing everybody forward,

316
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,160
Speaker 3: penning them in. I think they could do a similar

317
00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:16,440
Speaker 3: number here, but it's harder to do.

318
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:17,160
Speaker 2: That away from home.

319
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Speaker 3: So I actually would it would be Spurs or nothing here. Also,

320
00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 3: it would be under and nothing because I do think,

321
00:15:22,040 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 3: you know, both attacks have run hot from a finishing

322
00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:29,160
Speaker 3: perspective this this spring, but haven't all really been that

323
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 3: good from a shots perspective, and so you know I

324
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Speaker 3: would I would lean towards the under as well. It's

325
00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,160
Speaker 3: sitting at two seven five. If it touches three and

326
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 3: it's not too juicy, I will be on the under.

327
00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:38,640
Speaker 4: B J.

328
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Speaker 5: What do you think?

329
00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know as United.

330
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Speaker 4: I mean, I hate both of these teams, right, So

331
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Speaker 4: this is a tough situation for you on hoo to pick.

332
00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 4: Like before, like when I was, you know, when I

333
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,160
Speaker 4: was going through and doing all my prep usually, you know,

334
00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:55,200
Speaker 4: I try to do my prep before Sunday, and I

335
00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 4: was showing a little bit of value on Tottenham and

336
00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,160
Speaker 4: I was gonna have to try to make the case

337
00:15:58,200 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 4: for it.

338
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,000
Speaker 1: And you know, United, we're not the better side against.

339
00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,120
Speaker 4: Brighton today in the FA Cup semi finals and they

340
00:16:04,120 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 4: won on penalties. But I was showing a little bit

341
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,840
Speaker 4: value on Tottenham and then six goals happened and that

342
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:12,920
Speaker 4: just steered me clear of it. And if we remember

343
00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,960
Speaker 4: the previous meeting, I mean Tottham couldn't string up pass

344
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 4: together and build up play like it was really really poor,

345
00:16:20,400 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 4: and I yeah, I just I.

346
00:16:22,360 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 5: Don't know how it's really gonna happen again.

347
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 1: Like Anthony said, going to back fur with two guys

348
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,480
Speaker 1: who can't really defend is not a.

349
00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 4: Great scenario against United right now. So Tottenham is basically

350
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,720
Speaker 4: gonna have to do all their damage and wide areas

351
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 4: and we'll see if they can do it. But yeah, no,

352
00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 4: I'm right about on where the market is for this one.

353
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 1: So I'm passing.

354
00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:43,200
Speaker 2: Yeah.

355
00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 3: I mean, you saw United's problems in the Sevilla match.

356
00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 3: Sevilla they donated two goals in that match just trying

357
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,040
Speaker 3: to build out from the back. They kind of abandoned

358
00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,800
Speaker 3: the strategy about halfway through today's match and went more direct.

359
00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:55,800
Speaker 2: It didn't really work either.

360
00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,600
Speaker 3: They weren't very good going forward, but Tata is not

361
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,360
Speaker 3: gonna press high like Caine, Sun and Kuloseevski just.

362
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 2: Do not press. It's just not they're not capable of it.

363
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,359
Speaker 3: They don't do it at their age, and it's not

364
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,679
Speaker 3: tactically designed that way. So it kind of alleviates United's

365
00:17:10,680 --> 00:17:13,640
Speaker 3: biggest problem and that's why I don't love the matchup.

366
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 3: But like I said, you know the number at this point,

367
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 3: Like if you're laying United as a road favorite here,

368
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:21,159
Speaker 3: you could have bet United as a home dog against

369
00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,359
Speaker 3: Tottenham in the fall back, when you know the market

370
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 3: was still catching up to how shit Tottenham is, which,

371
00:17:26,119 --> 00:17:29,640
Speaker 3: by the way, SPI now has Tottenham five thirty HSPI

372
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,159
Speaker 3: as a below average team in the Premier League, below tenth,

373
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 3: which is crazy to me, probably a little bit of

374
00:17:35,760 --> 00:17:40,200
Speaker 3: an overreaction, but generally we're about where I am though,

375
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,680
Speaker 3: so about eighth, where's and worse?

376
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 4: Really your prediction at the worst tot I'm going to

377
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:45,600
Speaker 4: finish in the table.

378
00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 3: I'd have to look at the Villa running as to

379
00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:50,520
Speaker 3: who they still play, but we're definitely finishing behind Liverpool

380
00:17:50,520 --> 00:17:52,879
Speaker 3: and Brighton, so the best the best we can do,

381
00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:53,960
Speaker 3: I think is seventh.

382
00:17:55,200 --> 00:17:56,120
Speaker 1: Conference League.

383
00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:01,240
Speaker 3: We're in fifty three, Villa fifty one, Liverpool fifty with

384
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 3: a game in hand. They're better than us too, so

385
00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 3: and they'll beat us this weekend, so that's that they're

386
00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,160
Speaker 3: gonna pass us. Brighton will surely pass us like Fulham isn't,

387
00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:13,960
Speaker 3: Brentford isn't. Chelsea obviously isn't, so I would imagine seventh.

388
00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,960
Speaker 3: But Villa still has Let's see who does Villa have left.

389
00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 5: I'll tell you who they have next.

390
00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,719
Speaker 3: They still go to United, they go to Wolves and

391
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,240
Speaker 3: Liverpool and Newcastle, so like I probably don't think Villa's

392
00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,560
Speaker 3: passing is either, so we'll probably fitter seven Conference League.

393
00:18:30,080 --> 00:18:32,680
Speaker 2: Can't wait for those road trips to Ghent.

394
00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:38,600
Speaker 5: Let's talk about Villa minus one thirty four at home

395
00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,120
Speaker 5: hosting Fulham Cottagers plus three fifty. The draw is plus

396
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,280
Speaker 5: two eighty. This feels like the Regression Bowl.

397
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 1: Yeah yep, which.

398
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:49,399
Speaker 5: Leads me to think, why would I just bet Fulham?

399
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 5: But I'm just so sick and tired of losing to

400
00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 5: Villa that I might not do it, But it would

401
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,560
Speaker 5: It'd be pretty. It would be Fulham or nothing for me.

402
00:18:57,760 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 5: I'll probably do it because I don't have any I

403
00:19:01,080 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 5: don't really have any reason not to. I guess Villa

404
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,840
Speaker 5: ten three and four wins draw loss since the World

405
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:10,800
Speaker 5: Cup plus ten goal differential minus three expectacle differential, that's

406
00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 5: thirty three points. According to Understad, they should be around

407
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 5: between twenty three and twenty four maybe soon. I am

408
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 5: a effect. We love them here and you know they

409
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 5: do have good players. I think you know, Anthony before

410
00:19:23,720 --> 00:19:26,879
Speaker 5: the season was always talking about how he's high on

411
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 5: this team, and I even think last year you talked

412
00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:31,919
Speaker 5: up this team all a good amount as well. So

413
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 5: maybe it's just things are clicking right under a better

414
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,919
Speaker 5: manager now and the market and is not catching up

415
00:19:37,920 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 5: to it, and they're just better than what they're underlying

416
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 5: thembers they're going to suggest, But it's hard to argue

417
00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:45,960
Speaker 5: that any team's going to be this much better if

418
00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:51,520
Speaker 5: they're not Man City or whoever so likely be on Fulham,

419
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 5: who's similar story, just overperforming and getting results here and there.

420
00:19:56,640 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 5: Though they their performance a gets Everden I thought was

421
00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,800
Speaker 5: pretty good should translate well here. But it'll be Fulham

422
00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 5: for me. Anthony, what do you have?

423
00:20:05,000 --> 00:20:05,200
Speaker 2: Yeah?

424
00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,760
Speaker 3: I bet the under so Villa's sixteenth and expected threat

425
00:20:08,880 --> 00:20:12,159
Speaker 3: like it's not it's not like a free flowing, good attack.

426
00:20:12,200 --> 00:20:15,119
Speaker 3: They set it up to get Watkins in behind, you know,

427
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:18,359
Speaker 3: a couple of times and try to get a couple

428
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 3: of big chances off of that. They're still really not

429
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 3: getting much from set pieces either, despite their their talent.

430
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,880
Speaker 3: And yes, like Leon Bailey being out hurts, but sixteenth

431
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,040
Speaker 3: and an expected threat and we're talking about a team

432
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,880
Speaker 3: that's top seven in the league. That's that's like UNA

433
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 3: and Berlin level stuff. I know they get more shots

434
00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:38,840
Speaker 3: than that, but it's really alarming. And Fulham is sixteenth

435
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:39,800
Speaker 3: in high turnovers.

436
00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 2: And we've talked about this time and time again with Villa.

437
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:44,119
Speaker 3: When teams are able to turn them over high and

438
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 3: disrupt the play, they're pretty good at, you know, getting

439
00:20:50,080 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 3: at Villa. You can get at Villa that way and

440
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 3: Villa will give you transitions. But Fulham's front group isn't

441
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 3: really gonna press.

442
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 5: No.

443
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 2: Mitrovich still hurts.

444
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 3: I know they scored twice last week, but I don't

445
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: think there's gonna be a ton of sustained pressure on

446
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:06,159
Speaker 3: Fulham defensively, which is where we've seen them crack many times.

447
00:21:06,160 --> 00:21:08,360
Speaker 2: Their defensive you know, has been pretty fortunate this year.

448
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 3: But I also don't think we're gona see a ton

449
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 3: of high trnover So this plays out as a kind

450
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 3: of a stalemate y kind of vibe for me.

451
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna bet the under two and a half.

452
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,960
Speaker 3: There's a plus one or two out there. I would

453
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,480
Speaker 3: bet up to minus one ten. I know Fulham's defense

454
00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:22,359
Speaker 3: is really bad, but these are two attacks that have

455
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: just not been nearly as good as their numbers.

456
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 5: Uh, what about this Wolves team? This is a villa

457
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 5: and Fulham are Tuesday. This is another Tuesday game. Wolves

458
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 5: finally like they lose this weekend. They stink and they're

459
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 5: plus twenty five at home to Palace plus two thirty

460
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,479
Speaker 5: the draw us plus two twenty five. And as as

461
00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 5: much as we were saying, like, okay last weekend was

462
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 5: that's the high watermark for Palace, probably the right time

463
00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:56,280
Speaker 5: to sell. They're better than Wolves, they're playing great. Why

464
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,760
Speaker 5: aren't you guys on Palace here with me?

465
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:02,240
Speaker 4: PJ I project will at plus one thirty eight. So

466
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:06,159
Speaker 4: you know, here's the thing, Michael, is that out of nowhere,

467
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 4: Palace is now back to tenth and.

468
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,119
Speaker 1: Non penalty spectacles allowed.

469
00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 4: Like we were talking for so long this season how

470
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,080
Speaker 4: they're in the bottom two, but.

471
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 2: They were never that bad.

472
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 1: They were never never that bad.

473
00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 4: And it's something I was just like, is that they

474
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 4: just they can see the only canided chances to good teams,

475
00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 4: like against every other everybody other team, they were just

476
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,920
Speaker 4: around like you know, zero point nine point eight you

477
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 4: know per match or whatever it was. And so now

478
00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,639
Speaker 4: Roy comes in makes them extremely compact and they've been

479
00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 4: really really good defensively, so you know, the under is

480
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 4: just too much here to play it. That's where I

481
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:40,560
Speaker 4: would be looking. But uh, you know, it's it's very funny,

482
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 4: is that. You know, I was on the over and

483
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:43,640
Speaker 4: Everton Crystal Palace.

484
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,360
Speaker 1: And almost got there.

485
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 4: It almost well, you know, it's just like you know,

486
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 4: me thinking that Roy Hodgson and Sean Diytsch have suddenly

487
00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:55,919
Speaker 4: become these like offensive minded, aggressive wizard attacking coaches and

488
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 4: they just revert back to their old ways.

489
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: And it's one of the most boring matches of the

490
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,280
Speaker 1: Premier League season. And so I am passing.

491
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 4: Wolves will probably take a ton of shots from distance here,

492
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 4: Palace will have transitional opportunities, they'll conceide a lot of

493
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:13,200
Speaker 4: possession here to Wolves. So it just comes down to, uh,

494
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,679
Speaker 4: will Wolves hit those shots from outside the box or

495
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: will Palace be effective in transition opportunities? So I am

496
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 4: passing because the unders too juicy. But yeah, that's where

497
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 4: I look if I had to play anything on this match.

498
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 2: Ruben Neves came out at halftime.

499
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 3: He took five shots in the second half, totally zero

500
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 3: point two expected goals.

501
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 1: It's just all of them were probably from outside the box.

502
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 2: Yes, average shot distance was twenty one yards.

503
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:40,959
Speaker 1: Yep, So there you go.

504
00:23:41,080 --> 00:23:43,280
Speaker 3: I mean it's just beautiful. And they played a lesser

505
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 3: team that started three strikers, so you.

506
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: Know, I was gonna. I was gonna post a meme.

507
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 4: I was, like I said on the podcast, I'm like,

508
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 4: I'm not playing last year. If Jamieve already starts up top,

509
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,439
Speaker 4: and then I see they started Ianatcha and Doca behind him,

510
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 4: I was like, well, maybe I should then, but I

511
00:23:58,640 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 4: ended up passing.

512
00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 3: I had the under and I immediately knew it was dead.

513
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,199
Speaker 3: I was like, what is this lineup from? Like we're

514
00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 3: gonna talk about Leester next. That lineup man like Dean Smith,

515
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:10,720
Speaker 3: kind of mad, kind.

516
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 1: Of worked, revolutionary is what it was?

517
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: Three points.

518
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 5: I still don't understand what you guys aren't on palace here.

519
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 5: I think it's a great number.

520
00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: Probably we'll probably be dead wrong.

521
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 5: Honestly, we'll stink Leads.

522
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 2: I mean, if I always got to plus a.

523
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 3: Half, i'd happily bet them, But I gotta lay like

524
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 3: minus one fifty five for.

525
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 5: That, So spet them the money line.

526
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: They're gonna win, but it's gonna end no'l nil or

527
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 2: one one.

528
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 5: No, they're gonna win this. This one is, this is

529
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 5: gonna be Roy Hodgson is for nothing special.

530
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: Leads and Leicester.

531
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 5: Massive one in the relegation battle sixteen and seventeen in

532
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 5: the table. Let's run through it now. I'm we'll start

533
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,400
Speaker 5: with where Leads is at and just work our way down.

534
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,520
Speaker 5: Leads on twenty nine points from thirty two games played.

535
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,440
Speaker 5: Leicester's play thirty two matches. They have twenty eight points.

536
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,960
Speaker 5: A one point separating these two teams. Lesser's ahead of

537
00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 5: Everton only by goal difference. Everton also twenty eight points

538
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:13,359
Speaker 5: from thirty two games, noting for excuse me, right behind

539
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 5: them on twenty seven points. Then there's Southampton on twenty four.

540
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 5: All of these teams have played thirty two matches. Let's

541
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,720
Speaker 5: if you look real quick at bet three six fives

542
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 5: relegation odds, Southampton is a massive favorite minus one thousand,

543
00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 5: nining Forest minus five hundred. Everton also odds on it

544
00:25:33,119 --> 00:25:35,320
Speaker 5: minus one twenty Leads plus one fifty less or plus

545
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,239
Speaker 5: one sixty two Boorn with ten to one. Wolves are

546
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:38,920
Speaker 5: forty to one.

547
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: Interesting, what's their schedule?

548
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 5: It's tough, Let's look it up. They have Palace, Brighton,

549
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 5: Villa United, Everdon Arsenal.

550
00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:53,440
Speaker 1: Damn, it's that mix.

551
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:58,080
Speaker 5: It's a mix of tough, tough opponents and a team

552
00:25:58,119 --> 00:26:01,800
Speaker 5: that's chasing you, like the likeliest team to get out

553
00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 5: of the relegation spots right now, which is Everden.

554
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:04,960
Speaker 2: Yeah.

555
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 3: I guess the question is there's a The problem is

556
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: there's a lot of teams there.

557
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.

558
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 3: Like all those teams Everton, are Everton, Lester and Leads

559
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,520
Speaker 3: all gonna get ten more points this year.

560
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 2: I could see it. I don't hate it for one.

561
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,440
Speaker 5: Wolves will be their favorite, their favored against Pallace. Will

562
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:32,440
Speaker 5: they be a favorite again before Everton? Maybe it's maybe

563
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,120
Speaker 5: they'll be a pick them against Villa, but no, they won't. Yeah,

564
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 5: pick them the old Villa. That'd be so they're gonna

565
00:26:37,520 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 5: be a favorite against Pallace, There'll be a big underdog

566
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:43,920
Speaker 5: against Wolves, coin flip Villa at home underdog gets United

567
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 5: favored against Everton who will be chasing them, and then

568
00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 5: Arsenal they'll be a big underdog as well. So you

569
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 5: need them to lose four only win one. Probably would

570
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:58,440
Speaker 5: say maybe get a like that's the if they even

571
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,239
Speaker 5: if they get four points, they'd probably say, but at

572
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 5: forty to one, it's really not that bad A bad end.

573
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 5: I guess we're kind of going back. But anyways, instead

574
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,720
Speaker 5: of even betting Palace, maybe just bet the Walls forty

575
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 5: to one. I'll do that instead. Leeds plus one twenty

576
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 5: five hosting Leicester plus two thirty Job plus two forty Anthey,

577
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 5: you're talking about the lineup from Beadsmith.

578
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 2: Kind a genius though, I think that.

579
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:26,600
Speaker 3: So that's the case, right, So these are teams are

580
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 3: heading in opposite directions. I talked about Leeds positive aggression candidate.

581
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: But like this new strategy, man, it sucks. Grassi has

582
00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 3: got them playing this defensive style and they can't defend.

583
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 2: They're not good at it.

584
00:27:37,400 --> 00:27:39,760
Speaker 3: They press from the front, they play on the front foot,

585
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: they give up goals, but they create chaos and are

586
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,480
Speaker 3: good at that. And now they play this like weak

587
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 3: ass defensive block system with shit defensive players, and it's.

588
00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 1: What we've been saying for like seven straight weeks now

589
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:54,160
Speaker 1: with this team.

590
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 2: I yeah, at.

591
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: First, I was like, Okay, they're going to be more

592
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 3: pragmatic and it might work. You know, the players talk

593
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 3: about being a little bit too direct, too fast under

594
00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,199
Speaker 3: Marsh and needing to slow it down a little bit.

595
00:28:04,240 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 3: But that's like they've gone to the opposite extreme and

596
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 3: they just suck at it.

597
00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: I mean, mckenny's numbers are shit.

598
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: Adams is out injured and he's their best ball winner,

599
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 3: best defender, defensive midfielder, so it's it's alarming now and

600
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 3: Lester they can't defend. So now they're just gonna outscore

601
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,640
Speaker 3: everybody by playing Daca eacho and.

602
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 2: Kind of party. I mean, I kind of dig it.

603
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:27,159
Speaker 2: I like it. I mean they shouldn't play party at all.

604
00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 3: But Doca and Inacho got six shots and one was

605
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 3: a penalty for Ianacho, but over one and a one

606
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:39,040
Speaker 3: point three XG for them, So like it was a

607
00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:43,280
Speaker 3: good showing. They created a bunch of chances and if

608
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,000
Speaker 3: they win two games by playing that strategy, they probably

609
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:49,719
Speaker 3: will stay up and they're probably the better team than

610
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 3: Leads right now. So I mean, with the home field,

611
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 3: it's about right for me. I don't want to bet

612
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:58,080
Speaker 3: Leeds as a favorite here. I just it feels like

613
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: it's going in the wrong direction and this is dangerous now.

614
00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: And I don't want to overreact because I was just

615
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 3: I bet them two weeks ago and last week, but

616
00:29:05,040 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 3: this is this feels like a stylistic nightmare.

617
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: DJ.

618
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 4: You have any thoughts here, No, I agree that the number

619
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 4: is about right on what I have it stylistic nightmare

620
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,520
Speaker 4: for Leads. I mean just like we come on and

621
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 4: we just say the same crap about the same teams

622
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 4: over and over again. He hasn't done anything to like

623
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 4: prove that they're going to play any differently.

624
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's just And then what happens with Leeds.

625
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 4: Is once they do have once they concede, then it's like,

626
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 4: oh crap, we can't maintain this defensive structure. We have

627
00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 4: to play open, we gotta press, we got to get forward,

628
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:37,920
Speaker 4: and that's when the mistakes happen, and that's when the

629
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 4: goals start piling on.

630
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the thing is too, Like Leeds finally

631
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 3: does have their healthy attackers, so that should help and

632
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 3: and it did against Liverpool, like they created a bunch

633
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:50,600
Speaker 3: of chances and they were okay against Fulham. But you know,

634
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 3: so that is the thing here, Like they are a

635
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,440
Speaker 3: good attack, good enough attack to put a couple pass lesters.

636
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 3: So maybe I should be betting the over here. Maybe,

637
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: but I really don't want about this match.

638
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 5: Sometimes VJ, we we the same crap. We talk about

639
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 5: the same teams over and over again. It's is good crap.

640
00:30:08,480 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 5: And that's the case with Presents.

641
00:30:11,000 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: They're a fun crap to talk.

642
00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 5: About, right and just they're rock stars. They might win

643
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 5: the we might just be talking about talking about.

644
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: I really hope they don't get rated this summer because man, there.

645
00:30:22,760 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 5: Matter, it does not matter.

646
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:27,440
Speaker 1: It does matter.

647
00:30:27,560 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 5: They lost they lost Troe Sard, they lost their manager,

648
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 5: like the they lost Neo Mopi. It doesn't matter who

649
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 5: they lose. They just are going to replace them. This

650
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 5: is a factory. It's it's not nothing nothing, They're they're

651
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 5: the best. They're minus won seventy five favorite on the

652
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,600
Speaker 5: road to Forrest plus four seventy five. The draw is

653
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 5: plus three twenty. Like I said, Forrest minus five hundred

654
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 5: to go down there on one point behind Everton from

655
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 5: safe and they have. They put up a fight against

656
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 5: Liverpool in over the weekend but last and that was

657
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 5: one of a few really tough ones Brighton then there

658
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 5: at there at Brentford, huge game against Southampton. That one

659
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 5: will be at the city ground and it's Chelsea Arsenal Palace,

660
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 5: so not in it's pretty tricky running for Forest here.

661
00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 5: You'd almost think that they'll circle this one as since

662
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,080
Speaker 5: it's at home a go for it must win. But

663
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 5: that would be a little bit of a dangerous game

664
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,160
Speaker 5: to play against Brighton and beach A you're looking at

665
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 5: what could be a route here.

666
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't hate Brighton as a parlay piece. I

667
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 4: was kind of thinking about it aforehand and my parlay

668
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 4: that with maybe under three in Wolves in Crystal Palace.

669
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:49,680
Speaker 4: But I mean what you saw from the match against

670
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 4: Liverpool is similar to what Brighton's going to provide against

671
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 4: niam Forest. Now, Forrest for the first half against Liverpool

672
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 4: did a great jobs maintaining their defensive structure, playing five

673
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 4: at the back, closing off the middle of the pitch

674
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 4: and making life pretty difficult for Liverpool. But what tends

675
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 4: to happen with Diningham forst is once that first goal

676
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 4: goes in, they can't maintain that defensive structure. They have

677
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 4: to come out, they have to try to play more offensive.

678
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 4: That's when things start to fall apart for them. Now,

679
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,760
Speaker 4: the teams that Brighton have the most success against are

680
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: teams that you know, obviously press them high where they

681
00:32:19,920 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 4: can bait them in and play right through.

682
00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 1: But Brighton, you know.

683
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 4: A sign of an elite team is in a team

684
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 4: that has the ability to create overloads against the opponent's

685
00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 4: back line while also sustaining pressure when they lose the ball,

686
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 4: and Brighton is incredible at that. So Brighton is going

687
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 4: to have Nottingham Forest under siege for a large large

688
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 4: portion of this match. Now, Nottingham Forest will have counter

689
00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 4: attacking opportunities, but you've seen it time and time again

690
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 4: with Brighton when they've had to play face these low

691
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 4: block style teams who like to just be very direct encounter.

692
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 4: You know, if you go back to the match against Brentford,

693
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 4: they created over four expected goals in that one. When

694
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,880
Speaker 4: they face Borne Myth, you know, theybviously in both meetings

695
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 4: against them, They've created over two expected goals. I mean

696
00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 4: this offense we talk about, you know, week in and

697
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 4: week out is I think Anthony brought it up. Since February,

698
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 4: what are they averaging two point three x g P ninety.

699
00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 4: It's insane, Like this is one of the best. This

700
00:33:13,360 --> 00:33:16,120
Speaker 4: is not only you know, maybe outside of City, the

701
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,880
Speaker 4: best offensive premar league right now over the last few months.

702
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 4: So I don't hate Brighton as a parlay piece. I've

703
00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 4: been projecting like very very little value on them at

704
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,239
Speaker 4: minus one, so I think I'm gonna parlay them with

705
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 4: under three in Wolves Crystal Palace, which should pay out

706
00:33:32,120 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 4: around even money.

707
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 5: It's a pass for for Antony and I, so we

708
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 5: can move on to a game there. When I saw

709
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:41,400
Speaker 5: that the line for this match, I said, all right,

710
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 5: this is gonna be a pretty easy conversation here. Chelsea's

711
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 5: minus won forty three at home hosting Brentford plus four hundred.

712
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 5: The draw is plus two eighty. I mean, it's Brentford

713
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 5: numbers just.

714
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 1: Insane, terrific Chelsea.

715
00:33:58,720 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 5: We've talked so much about the regression and like it's

716
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 5: gonna come, but when there minus one forty three, it

717
00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 5: gets a good a good team on the three way line.

718
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's also also back there. They're heading back in

719
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 2: the wrong direction again under Frank. I mean he's not

720
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:13,360
Speaker 2: a very good manager.

721
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 4: That's trivia trivia question about Frank and Michael might know

722
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 4: the answer to this. The last seventeen matches, how many

723
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:21,880
Speaker 4: matches has Frank Lampard.

724
00:34:21,440 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 1: Won as a manager?

725
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 2: Zero?

726
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,000
Speaker 5: Let me think of when his last win?

727
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: Zero zero one.

728
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 4: It's he did the draw versus City.

729
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:35,439
Speaker 1: That's true.

730
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,879
Speaker 5: He did keep in your he kept your play, your

731
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 5: title hopes alive there beating.

732
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 1: That is true. He did do that.

733
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,799
Speaker 4: So you know, thank you to Frank Lampard. But like

734
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 4: the last time, I mean we obviously watched, you know

735
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,279
Speaker 4: whatever the second leg. Like what was he doing in

736
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 4: the second leg against Real Madrid? Did you see that

737
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:51,200
Speaker 4: lineup you put out there?

738
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: Should be said they created over one XG in that

739
00:34:54,480 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 3: first half and should have scored.

740
00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, good for them, But I mean he

741
00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: started essentially one attacker. Havertz was the only for this

742
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,400
Speaker 4: is insane. I could not believe it, Oh my gosh. Anyway,

743
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 4: but no, it pertains this match. I mean yeah, you

744
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,399
Speaker 4: know if you follow him in the app, I bet

745
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:15,839
Speaker 4: Brentford early after Chelsea just got absolutely freaking annihilated by

746
00:35:15,880 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 4: Brighton last time they're out in the Premier League when

747
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 4: they get out shot thirty to three in the end

748
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:22,439
Speaker 4: and Brighton created three expected goals.

749
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 1: I mean, this is just a really good you.

750
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 4: Know, Michael, and I think this kind of plays down

751
00:35:26,440 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 4: to you know, when you look at these two teams.

752
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: This is a team.

753
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 4: That has structure and has a tactical plan in Brentford

754
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 4: versus a Chelsea team that doesn't have structure and doesn't

755
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 4: really have a tactical plan under Frank Lampard. As it

756
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 4: pertains right now, they've played four different formations so far

757
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,720
Speaker 4: under Lampard, still trying to figure out what he wants

758
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 4: to do with a bunch of guys who haven't been

759
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,719
Speaker 4: playing together for a really long time. So it's a

760
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:53,440
Speaker 4: really really poor matchup for them. And I mean we

761
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 4: talk about it all the time. Brentford just so so

762
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 4: good in those transitional opportunities. Chelsea has not been that

763
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: great transition defense this season. Chelsea also is sixteenth in

764
00:36:06,120 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: the Premier League and next she allowed per set piece,

765
00:36:08,160 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 4: which is really really bad news against the best set

766
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 4: piece offense in Brentford and the Bees. Them and Brighton

767
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 4: are the only two teams this season to have a

768
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 4: positive expected gold differential against the Big six Brentford at

769
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 4: plus point three. So yes, Chelsea is drastically overvalued here.

770
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 4: And what does Chelsea have to play for right now?

771
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:33,480
Speaker 4: Like poach team is gonna be walking through the door

772
00:36:33,480 --> 00:36:35,440
Speaker 4: here in a couple of weeks all of a lot

773
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:37,880
Speaker 4: of these players don't know where they're gonna be next season.

774
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,080
Speaker 4: They're not gonna finish in a European spot, they're not

775
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,399
Speaker 4: gonna get relegated. So we're gonna get a lot of

776
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 4: Chelsea just meandering through the rest of the season. So

777
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 4: I love Brentford plus a half and stay tuned for

778
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,040
Speaker 4: the underdog section where I may or may not be

779
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:55,479
Speaker 4: paid or one of us will be picking them.

780
00:36:56,000 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 5: I think meandering is a great word and for this

781
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 5: because when you think about these two teams where they

782
00:37:02,600 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 5: are right now, Yeah, Chelsea's all over the place, and

783
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 5: you just win, lose or draw like you kind of

784
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 5: just know what to expect that at Brentford, and that

785
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 5: is enough, yeah, to give yourself a high enough floor

786
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 5: against the team like Chelsea who could lose this game

787
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 5: three nil.

788
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: If Brentford will always.

789
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 4: Give you their best at for no matter what, which

790
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,080
Speaker 4: is always good to know when you're.

791
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 5: Betting on them. Yeah, yeah, I think Brentford's an absolute

792
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 5: spot dunk at four to one.

793
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,400
Speaker 3: It draws comparisons to United from last year with me,

794
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 3: where they had the contemporary manager. They went all out

795
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 3: in the Champions League, they lost and then the season

796
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,920
Speaker 3: was over. But there's no Europe, there's no and the

797
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 3: performance has just dropped off a cliff again and it's kind.

798
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 2: Of what was happening here. I mean, Potter had them

799
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:46,040
Speaker 2: playing better.

800
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 3: We've talked about that, that he gets fired, then they

801
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:51,439
Speaker 3: go out of the Champions League, the season is over,

802
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:54,120
Speaker 3: and now it's like, okay, why are we getting up

803
00:37:54,160 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 3: to go again for the rest of the season now,

804
00:37:56,360 --> 00:37:59,920
Speaker 3: Like this team has real quick potential. I know that

805
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 3: there's a lot of guys playing for a minutes, playing

806
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 3: for spots, playing for uh, you know, the next club,

807
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 3: because there's gonna be a lot of outgoings at Chelsea

808
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,879
Speaker 3: this summer, but it seems hard to me that they're

809
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: gonna get up for this.

810
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's definitely Bredford again.

811
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:13,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, they have ours.

812
00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 2: I also don't hate the over right.

813
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: They have Arsenal next to Chelsea. Uh at Arsenal, they'll give.

814
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 2: Their best effort that day.

815
00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,919
Speaker 4: And if you really want to look ahead, Michael, their

816
00:38:24,960 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 4: next match after that, Bournemouth at home is sitting at

817
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 4: four to one against Chelsea, so that might be to

818
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 4: just play that a little bit earlier West Ham and Liverpool.

819
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,720
Speaker 3: You think betting against Chelsea every week on the money

820
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 3: line is for the rest of the season is a

821
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:40,320
Speaker 3: decent idea.

822
00:38:40,400 --> 00:38:42,279
Speaker 1: Well, let's test it out. Why not, let's just do

823
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 1: it every single see, let's do it out. I'll do it,

824
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, why.

825
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 4: Don't you do it in the the app under our

826
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 4: wonder goal uh account, and we'll see if we come

827
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:52,320
Speaker 4: out profitable.

828
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 5: On to another Wednesday match. It's funny that they you know,

829
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 5: there's you got Chelsea playing and you got Liverpool playing

830
00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,760
Speaker 5: against some big teams playing, but all eyes on Wednesday

831
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:09,520
Speaker 5: will be fixated on city in Arsenal. Liverpool is traveling

832
00:39:09,560 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 5: to the London Stadium take on west Ham Hammers plus

833
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:17,240
Speaker 5: three hundred at home Liverpool odds on minus twenty eighteen

834
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,480
Speaker 5: on the road draw plus to eighty. I think this

835
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 5: is these odds tell a story, which is that Liverpool,

836
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:29,560
Speaker 5: when Liverpool is normally playing a team that's in fifteenth

837
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 5: place and three points above the relegation battle, there even

838
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:35,240
Speaker 5: on the road at a usually sitting at a bigger

839
00:39:35,280 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 5: number than this tells you that everybody knows that west

840
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,319
Speaker 5: Ham is a lot better than the fifteenth best team

841
00:39:40,360 --> 00:39:43,839
Speaker 5: in the league. And Liverpool has some serious issues and

842
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 5: those issues, despite a couple wins in a row, haven't

843
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 5: really gone away. So a three two wind Forest, they

844
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 5: still concede goals and they're going to be going up

845
00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 5: against a defensive stalwart. Really like west Ham's a much

846
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:01,600
Speaker 5: better defensive team than than Liverpool is. There's sixth in

847
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 5: the table in expectacles against. They have a positive expected

848
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 5: gole differential on the season. They should be around you know,

849
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 5: half a goal in the in the black with their

850
00:40:11,480 --> 00:40:13,520
Speaker 5: twelve goals in the red, so twelve and a half

851
00:40:13,560 --> 00:40:18,319
Speaker 5: goals of misfortune, bed luck, poor finishing, et cetera. All

852
00:40:18,360 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 5: that stuff mix in the cauldron. So I like west

853
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 5: Ham here against which should still be a vulnerable Liverpool defense.

854
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,440
Speaker 5: And you know that David Moyes always has this one

855
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:30,880
Speaker 5: circles and circle and he does a good job setting

856
00:40:30,880 --> 00:40:34,719
Speaker 5: his team up against Jurgen klops Liverpool. So Anthony, I'll

857
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 5: be on the Hammers.

858
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:38,400
Speaker 2: Yeah I will too. I bet them plus a half.

859
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 3: I think there are a few teams that play a

860
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 3: very specific style this year. Very fast, very direct attack Leeds,

861
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 3: west Ham, Brentford, Bournemouth and Forrest. Those are the teams

862
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 3: that fit the criteria based on the analyst data. We

863
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 3: saw Leeds create over one and a half extreme in

864
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,400
Speaker 3: the last meeting and beat Liverpool at Anfield.

865
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 2: We saw Bournemouth beat Liverpool at home. We saw Brentford

866
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 2: beat Liverpool at home.

867
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:09,840
Speaker 3: And we saw Forest go toe to toe with Liverpool

868
00:41:09,840 --> 00:41:11,399
Speaker 3: at home in the first meeting and a very even

869
00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 3: back and forth goalless draw. And then we saw a

870
00:41:14,200 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 3: very competitive match just last week. So it is a

871
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 3: clear pattern of teams that Liverpool has struggled with this year.

872
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 2: And west Ham fits that a little bit different.

873
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 3: You know, they're a little more passive without the ball

874
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 3: and whatnot, but they're just as dangerous in transition, very

875
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 3: good on set pieces, and Liverpool's still inflated because their

876
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 3: defense is still flawed.

877
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:35,200
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna take west Ham at home.

878
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 4: Well, let's mega three for three. I like west Ham

879
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,879
Speaker 4: plus a half as well. And now everybody's talking about

880
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 4: Liverpool's offense right now. Obviously they've scored. You know, they've

881
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 4: created nine point four expected goals last three matches, and

882
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,840
Speaker 4: you know what you're seeing from them offensively is combination

883
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:50,439
Speaker 4: of two things.

884
00:41:50,440 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 1: It's one.

885
00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:55,120
Speaker 4: The big storyline is that klop has inverted Trent Alexander

886
00:41:55,200 --> 00:41:57,920
Speaker 4: Arnold into the midfield and it's completely changed Liverpool's midfield

887
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 4: because basically what you took is your best pressor best

888
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:03,040
Speaker 4: distributor and put him in the middle of the pitch

889
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 4: and allowed him to roam a little bit more rather

890
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 4: than just keeping him on one side of the pitch.

891
00:42:06,560 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 1: So it's allowed to unlock their offense a lot more.

892
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 4: Whre also does as allows Liverpool to build up in

893
00:42:11,840 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 4: a three two five, which allows them to compress the

894
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 4: back line, create an americal advantages and create a lot

895
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 4: of havoc in the box. And so that's kind of

896
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 4: what you saw with them creating three expected goals against Nottingham.

897
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:25,239
Speaker 4: For us, that's all well and good, but when you

898
00:42:25,280 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 4: invert Trent Alexander Arnold into the midfield, you leave yourself

899
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 4: incredibly exposed in transition because not only is he a

900
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 4: terrible defender to begin with, but Fabinho is also not

901
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:39,600
Speaker 4: having a great season. We've talked about this time and

902
00:42:39,640 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 4: time again, where Liverpool's not be able to press like

903
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:43,640
Speaker 4: they have been so now teams are able to run

904
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:46,240
Speaker 4: at a back three of Van Dyke, Kanate and Andrew

905
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 4: Robertson and they've been able to create a chance after

906
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 4: chance after chance against them. And Anthony's right, west Ham

907
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 4: sets up as a very very direct, counter attacking style

908
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,960
Speaker 4: team and they have the ball progressors to be able

909
00:42:57,000 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 4: to do with Declan Rice and Pikata, whereas teams like

910
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,719
Speaker 4: Born or even Brentford to that extent don't have that

911
00:43:02,800 --> 00:43:05,000
Speaker 4: type of outlet, especially through the middle of the pitch.

912
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 4: So and then obviously west Ham is very dangerous on

913
00:43:07,520 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 4: the wings with ben Rama and Bowen as well. So

914
00:43:10,560 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 4: this sets up perfectly I think for west Ham given

915
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 4: their style of play. And this is you know, David

916
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 4: Moyes still does have a very very good, low blocked

917
00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 4: style team. After they conceded twice against Arsenal, they were

918
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 4: very very good defensively after that, and Anthony mentioned as well.

919
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,879
Speaker 4: I mean west Ham is sixth in the Premier League

920
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 4: and XT cheaper set piece the It's actually underformed ten

921
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:30,400
Speaker 4: point seven expected goals and only scored six goals off

922
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 4: a set pieces. Liverpool is dead last in the Premier

923
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:35,440
Speaker 4: League in terms of X cheaper set piece So and

924
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:37,040
Speaker 4: even going back to the previous meeting, I mean it

925
00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:38,120
Speaker 4: was a completely even match.

926
00:43:38,200 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 1: Liverpool wont it one.

927
00:43:39,000 --> 00:43:41,239
Speaker 4: Nothing actually was very very you know, one point seven

928
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 4: to one point seven. Jared Bowen missed a penalty. So

929
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,279
Speaker 4: this is a really good spot here for west Ham.

930
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,400
Speaker 4: I only have Liverpool projected at plus one twenty.

931
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: Six, so I agree with you guys. I'm on the Hammers.

932
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:56,919
Speaker 5: Look at that three to three in a row doing

933
00:43:56,960 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 5: a row where all of us on the same side.

934
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 5: I don't see if it'll continue here. Everden hosting Newcastle

935
00:44:03,920 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 5: Goodison Park this fixture. Last year was the crazy alex

936
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 5: Awobee game winner when Everdon got chopped down to ten

937
00:44:12,840 --> 00:44:15,720
Speaker 5: men for that online challenge.

938
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: That was the just Stop oil protest exactly.

939
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 5: Game was somebody chained.

940
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:23,000
Speaker 1: Themselves to a post build the statue.

941
00:44:23,200 --> 00:44:25,480
Speaker 5: Ever did win and we got to build that guy's statue.

942
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 5: The Toffees will go into this match in a relegation

943
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 5: spot that is a guarantee and there plus three seventy

944
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 5: five hosting Newcastle minus want thirty four of the draws

945
00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 5: plus two seventy five. It seemed like Sean Diych and Everton.

946
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:46,520
Speaker 5: The message at Crystal Palace was pretty clear, which just

947
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:51,120
Speaker 5: anything you can to get a point, which is a

948
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,279
Speaker 5: little different from what we've seen out of him so

949
00:44:54,360 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 5: far at Everden and with with very little runway left now,

950
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 5: everdence schedule is they've got We've got City again, but

951
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 5: it's that's a point. Yeah, that's uh here to save

952
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:17,839
Speaker 5: Arsenal Right, Everton, They've got Newcastle at Goodison Park, then

953
00:45:17,840 --> 00:45:21,800
Speaker 5: they go to Leicester. By the way, this game between

954
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:25,000
Speaker 5: Everton and Newcastle is on my birthday, so oh make

955
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:28,480
Speaker 5: sure you factor that into your numbers. Leicester Leicester.

956
00:45:28,600 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 2: That that means I bump Newcastle?

957
00:45:30,719 --> 00:45:34,879
Speaker 5: Right, yeah for pay exactly. Yeah. Have the Islanders lose?

958
00:45:35,160 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 5: I have lost playoff series on my birthday before Game

959
00:45:37,320 --> 00:45:41,120
Speaker 5: seven against the Washington Capitals twenty fifteen. It's fun.

960
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:43,799
Speaker 2: Never forgot Colts blew the biggest lead in the history

961
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 2: of the NFL on my birthday.

962
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 5: So it was last year. Yeah, there you got bumped,

963
00:45:46,600 --> 00:45:48,759
Speaker 5: So what do you do? You bump your numbers for Newcastle.

964
00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 5: So it's it's Newcastle Leicester on the road, Brighton on

965
00:45:52,239 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 5: the road, City at home, and then they close with

966
00:45:55,480 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 5: Wolves and Bourne. With my point was that that the

967
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 5: way that they set up at Palace, I just I

968
00:46:02,520 --> 00:46:06,719
Speaker 5: think that they're going to revert back to the what

969
00:46:06,840 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 5: we saw from them under Ditch originally, which is a

970
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 5: more kind of aggressive pressing style, because this is a

971
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 5: game that they're going to need points out of when

972
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 5: you consider that they've got two really tough ones in

973
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 5: the run in with Brighton and City, and then they're

974
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 5: going to take on three teams that are with them

975
00:46:28,080 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 5: in the relegation battle and Wolves, Bournemouth and Leicester. Although

976
00:46:31,640 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 5: that Bournemouth match could mean nothing to Bournemouth and the

977
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:36,719
Speaker 5: nothing of Wolves by the time they get there. But

978
00:46:38,800 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 5: I do think that they could give Newcastle some issues

979
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,360
Speaker 5: here and I think at home it's the numbers just

980
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 5: about right. So I'll probably just bet with my heart here,

981
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:50,240
Speaker 5: But BJ you disagree.

982
00:46:50,920 --> 00:46:55,319
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm I'm struggling Michael to see how Everton's going

983
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 4: to create anything of quality in this match, because let's

984
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,080
Speaker 4: just be honest, Everton's been extremely poor and build up

985
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,400
Speaker 4: play this season, so they're not going to try to

986
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 4: do that against Newcastle, who's one of the best high

987
00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 4: pressing teams in the Premier League. So that means it's

988
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:09,759
Speaker 4: going to be a lot of long balls from goalkicks

989
00:47:09,880 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 4: and they're gonna have to play extremely direct, which is

990
00:47:12,040 --> 00:47:15,400
Speaker 4: a gamble going up against a team that like Newcastle,

991
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:20,440
Speaker 4: who thrives in transition, and especially going against the Newcastle

992
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,720
Speaker 4: defense that is conceded the third fewest big scoring chances.

993
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,560
Speaker 4: Oh and Newcastle is also second in the Premier League

994
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:30,680
Speaker 4: in aerial duels one percentage. So I know Dominie Calvert

995
00:47:30,719 --> 00:47:34,560
Speaker 4: Lewin is back, but I'm really struggling to see how

996
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:38,399
Speaker 4: Everton's going to create a high quality chance. And that's

997
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 4: what kind of what happened in the previous meeting. I

998
00:47:41,160 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 4: understand it was under Frank Lampard, but Everton managed one shot.

999
00:47:45,400 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 4: It came in the twenty sixth minute, and then five

1000
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 4: minutes later Newcastle scored and from that point on Everton

1001
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 4: did not attempt a shot.

1002
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: So for Everton to you know, play.

1003
00:47:56,320 --> 00:47:59,000
Speaker 4: The style that you mentioned under Sean Ditsch, to be

1004
00:47:59,080 --> 00:48:02,919
Speaker 4: more aggressive, to come out and press Newcastle, they're gonna

1005
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 4: need Onana in the lineup and he's questionable for this

1006
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 4: match playing in midfield of decore and Andresa Ganagay is

1007
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:11,759
Speaker 4: not going to be good enough up against this Newcastle team.

1008
00:48:12,320 --> 00:48:17,000
Speaker 4: And I mean Newcastle's just been on fire offensively. I

1009
00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 4: know they scored six goals today, but last since they

1010
00:48:19,560 --> 00:48:22,400
Speaker 4: lost to nothing to Man City, they have scored nineteen

1011
00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 4: goals off of seventeen expected. And Alexander Eshak, I mean,

1012
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:29,960
Speaker 4: if you're somebody who's been with us since the beginning,

1013
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 4: since the three of us first got in front of

1014
00:48:31,840 --> 00:48:34,280
Speaker 4: a camera together. The first time we did a podcast

1015
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 4: was for the Euros and we just gushed about Alexander

1016
00:48:37,600 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 4: Eshach for like a full sixty minutes by how always

1017
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:40,399
Speaker 4: gonna win the Golden Boot.

1018
00:48:40,440 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 1: He probably should have during the Euros.

1019
00:48:42,239 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 4: But he is big, completely transformed this tack in ways

1020
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 4: that Calm Wilson and Chris Wood could not have even

1021
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 4: dreamed of.

1022
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: Because he he's good at everything, like he doesn't have

1023
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: a weakness.

1024
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 4: So Newcastle can be incredibly versatile offensive, but they can

1025
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:57,919
Speaker 4: play in transition, they can build up, they can send

1026
00:48:57,960 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 4: and crosses like they.

1027
00:48:58,760 --> 00:48:59,480
Speaker 1: Can do everything.

1028
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:01,640
Speaker 4: So that's why I think you see the Newcastle offense

1029
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:04,160
Speaker 4: thriving the way it has been, and I mean, Everton's

1030
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,879
Speaker 4: still one of the worst defenses in the Premier League.

1031
00:49:06,960 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 4: So I do have Newcastle projected at minus one forty seven,

1032
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 4: so there's you know, still a minus one twenty five

1033
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:17,279
Speaker 4: out there. I like the value on that, but yeah,

1034
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:21,000
Speaker 4: I'm just really struggling to see how unless it's like

1035
00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:23,520
Speaker 4: like you said, like in a woebee just like crazy

1036
00:49:23,560 --> 00:49:26,799
Speaker 4: winner and Newcastle creates two expected goals and like doesn't

1037
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:28,200
Speaker 4: put the ball into back and that I really am

1038
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: struggling to see how how Everton's not only going to

1039
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:34,840
Speaker 4: get a draw but like be competitive.

1040
00:49:34,360 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 5: Here, Anthony, what do you think.

1041
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a bad spot for them coming off

1042
00:49:39,400 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 3: you know what may be the biggest winner of the season.

1043
00:49:41,400 --> 00:49:43,480
Speaker 3: You know, last time we said this about Newcastle, they

1044
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: had just won the FA Cup or EFL Cup semi

1045
00:49:46,120 --> 00:49:49,439
Speaker 3: to clinch their first Cup final spot in twenty years,

1046
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 3: and then they came out and Drew west Ham were

1047
00:49:51,280 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 3: flat Drew Bourndemyth, Like, there was definitely a drop off

1048
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:55,960
Speaker 3: in the energy and I think you're going to see

1049
00:49:56,000 --> 00:50:00,160
Speaker 3: that potential for a mismatch in energy levels in this

1050
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 3: match on the short turnaround for Newcastle on.

1051
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,640
Speaker 2: The road in a hostile Everton a home home run spot.

1052
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:09,680
Speaker 3: But yeah, I agree with BJ on the matchup and

1053
00:50:09,680 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 3: the number is not great, so probably gonna pass.

1054
00:50:12,000 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 2: You don't want to force plays. Market's prett efficient at

1055
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 2: this point.

1056
00:50:14,320 --> 00:50:16,880
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna just run into stuff here and just

1057
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 3: bet just cause, So unless Newcastle takes a bunch of money,

1058
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:20,680
Speaker 3: I will be sitting this one out.

1059
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:26,839
Speaker 5: Finally, let's wrap it up with another huge relegation match.

1060
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 5: Southampton are gonna need a win against Born Myth in

1061
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 5: a South Coast derby. Saints plus one twenty five, Born

1062
00:50:34,280 --> 00:50:36,800
Speaker 5: Myth plus two twenty the draw is plus two forty.

1063
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:39,960
Speaker 5: All right, it's a pass for me. I think this

1064
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 5: looks right. And you're born with has been spicy. Yeah,

1065
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:50,359
Speaker 5: they've been good. Uh so I don't think I don't

1066
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 5: really think it's not boring. Yeah, yeah, I don't think

1067
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 5: it's a bad spot to actually to back them as

1068
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,759
Speaker 5: a underdog. It's just the price is a little short,

1069
00:50:59,840 --> 00:51:01,160
Speaker 5: so anentity, what do you think?

1070
00:51:01,600 --> 00:51:03,319
Speaker 3: Yeah, both teams a scorer is a little too high

1071
00:51:03,360 --> 00:51:04,640
Speaker 3: for me right now. But if it comes down to

1072
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,160
Speaker 3: about minus one fifteen, i'd bet it. Bournemouth created over

1073
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:09,640
Speaker 3: one XG against west Ham, looked lively in attack again.

1074
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:13,719
Speaker 3: Defense is still awful, awful, second worst in the league

1075
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 3: by my numbers, and the attack is yeah, the attack's surging,

1076
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 3: we'll say, and looking competent. So given Southampton's willingness to

1077
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:29,400
Speaker 3: or habit of conceding over their XG because Bazoona is

1078
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 3: a really bad shot stopper, in fact that they're generally

1079
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:36,479
Speaker 3: just a team that plays a style that forces pace

1080
00:51:36,560 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 3: and a lot of possessions for neck style.

1081
00:51:39,920 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 2: So if you want to look toward the over here,

1082
00:51:42,320 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 2: that would be my look. But I got nothing else

1083
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 2: that brings us.

1084
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 4: Still Aliga BJ Yeah, I can't believe you guys aren't

1085
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,160
Speaker 4: on this one with me. Bill Bao minus one twenty

1086
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 4: against Sevilla Sevilla, My goodness.

1087
00:51:55,040 --> 00:51:56,280
Speaker 1: They've been running so lot.

1088
00:51:56,360 --> 00:52:01,240
Speaker 4: Recently, last Shadow United, last seven match as well, Anthony.

1089
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:05,799
Speaker 4: In the last seven matches they've scored fifteen goals off

1090
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:10,560
Speaker 4: of five point three expected. That's how ridiculously hot they're

1091
00:52:10,640 --> 00:52:12,400
Speaker 4: running right now. And yeah, two of those goals against

1092
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 4: United came up. These basically just gifts right to them.

1093
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,719
Speaker 4: But I mean, come on, I mean this Bilbao team

1094
00:52:20,320 --> 00:52:23,360
Speaker 4: is top five and both expected goals four and expected

1095
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:25,759
Speaker 4: goals against really good home team, a team that can

1096
00:52:25,840 --> 00:52:29,600
Speaker 4: actually thrive in transition, where Savilla you know good you know,

1097
00:52:29,640 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 4: I was looking through their numbers and I was like, oh,

1098
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 4: their eighteenth and final third penalty box conversion rate. But

1099
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 4: they're good at playing through pressure, like they get into

1100
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 4: the opponent's final thirdy a decent rate.

1101
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:38,480
Speaker 1: So what's going on?

1102
00:52:38,600 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 4: Well, they have the fifth highest average shot distance in

1103
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 4: La Ligas. They're just taking a ton of shots some distance,

1104
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:44,640
Speaker 4: all of them is really all of them are really

1105
00:52:44,640 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 4: low quality. And then Bill Boo, you know, second shortest

1106
00:52:48,360 --> 00:52:50,640
Speaker 4: average shot distances, the team we've obviously talked about a

1107
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:53,160
Speaker 4: ton of this podcast that is really really good at

1108
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:55,759
Speaker 4: creating those big scoring chanceses putting a premium on getting

1109
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 4: those high quality chances. And the number here is just

1110
00:52:57,640 --> 00:53:00,480
Speaker 4: way too short for you know, sevia team that also

1111
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 4: is playing their sixth match in fifteen days. So I

1112
00:53:05,000 --> 00:53:08,000
Speaker 4: have bill Bao projected at minus one seventy two, So

1113
00:53:08,120 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 4: I love the value on them at minus one twenty

1114
00:53:11,160 --> 00:53:12,280
Speaker 4: at home in the Basque country.

1115
00:53:12,960 --> 00:53:16,840
Speaker 5: All right, onto the underdog parlay for the midweek. Like

1116
00:53:16,880 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 5: I said, this is going to come out two one

1117
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,240
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty three to one, So some good prices

1118
00:53:20,280 --> 00:53:21,280
Speaker 5: in here on Southampton.

1119
00:53:23,080 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 2: We would have been live for tomorrow for Aroma, for.

1120
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: Josemino to Thirino one for me too.

1121
00:53:28,920 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, it would have been two sixty eight to one

1122
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:32,600
Speaker 5: on Josemarino.

1123
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:34,719
Speaker 3: I had it two hundred and fifty eight, I think

1124
00:53:34,840 --> 00:53:38,359
Speaker 3: is what the book gave me. But I was sitting

1125
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:42,040
Speaker 3: there like holy cow. No, imagine if it had happened

1126
00:53:42,040 --> 00:53:44,319
Speaker 3: in reverse. We hit the first two legs and then

1127
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:47,439
Speaker 3: so I tend to give them two goals. BJ would

1128
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: have been actively cheering against Arsenal in that moment.

1129
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:52,520
Speaker 1: No, I wouldn't have. I can't care less about you

1130
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 1: or the listener's money if Arsenal's involved with that.

1131
00:53:55,640 --> 00:53:57,320
Speaker 5: But that one hundred and twenty three to one is

1132
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 5: pretty good though. So let's get it started and we'll

1133
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:01,440
Speaker 5: start with Lalliga. Anthony.

1134
00:54:01,800 --> 00:54:04,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Ryo Viacano at home against Barcelona.

1135
00:54:04,680 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 2: Love betting Ryo against the big sides. They're very Brentford

1136
00:54:07,600 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 2: esk in the way that they play without the ball.

1137
00:54:09,360 --> 00:54:13,000
Speaker 2: Their defensive press is very good. They do not let

1138
00:54:13,160 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 2: you get into.

1139
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:17,880
Speaker 3: Your stuff and Barcelona has They're a little different this year.

1140
00:54:17,920 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 3: This is not traditional Barcelona slow build up. You know,

1141
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:23,920
Speaker 3: have the ball forever team. They do have a lot

1142
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 3: of possession, just naturally based on their talent, but they're

1143
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:27,920
Speaker 3: playing a little faster in transition.

1144
00:54:28,280 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 2: But Ryo's defensive press is very.

1145
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 3: Capable of slowing that down and getting into a back

1146
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,279
Speaker 3: and forth kind of game with them. So at plus

1147
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:37,919
Speaker 3: three seventy five, I like Ryo at home.

1148
00:54:39,360 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: There's a team I love as an underdog and so

1149
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:42,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna bet them again.

1150
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 5: I'll go with west Ham. They're three to one against Liverpool.

1151
00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:47,919
Speaker 5: We know that this west Ham team is much better

1152
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 5: than where they actually are sitting in standings. They should

1153
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:53,640
Speaker 5: match up pretty well stylistically against Liverpool. That spared out

1154
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 5: in previous meetings between David Moyes at West Ham versus

1155
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 5: Yurg and clap at Liverpool, and their defensive structure should

1156
00:55:03,920 --> 00:55:06,240
Speaker 5: be enough that they should be able to contain Liverpool

1157
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,799
Speaker 5: and counter effectively here. So three to one at home

1158
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:12,080
Speaker 5: for the Hammers, BJ what you.

1159
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 4: Got Brentford plus four to ten on the road at Chelsea.

1160
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,440
Speaker 4: You know we just talked about at Chelsea is in

1161
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 4: They're getting close to quiit mode here because there is

1162
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,800
Speaker 4: really no point for them to go ascension up the table.

1163
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:29,880
Speaker 4: They're not going to get relegated, and it's a perfect matchup.

1164
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 4: Like we've already talked about Brentford, a team that has structure,

1165
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 4: that has a tactical plan versus Chelsea, who is under

1166
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:39,440
Speaker 4: a new manager, has played four different formations in his

1167
00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,759
Speaker 4: four matches in charge and has a ton of new

1168
00:55:41,800 --> 00:55:43,800
Speaker 4: players they bought at the January trans window who have

1169
00:55:43,960 --> 00:55:46,200
Speaker 4: not played a lot together. So this is a really

1170
00:55:46,239 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 4: good matchup for the Bes, who are really really good

1171
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,839
Speaker 4: and direct transitional opportunities where Chelsea has somewhat struggled. Chelsea

1172
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:53,880
Speaker 4: has considered the tenth most big scoring chances in the

1173
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:56,000
Speaker 4: Premier League and they're also one of the worst teams

1174
00:55:56,239 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 4: at defending set pieces, which is not good news against

1175
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 4: brent So b's plus four to ten for me.

1176
00:56:02,960 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 5: Brentford, West Ham and Ryovkano three Lake bar like one

1177
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:10,120
Speaker 5: hundred and twenty three to one. All right, let's wrap

1178
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 5: it up with our best bets for this midweek. It's

1179
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,359
Speaker 5: a huge one obviously, but none of us are going,

1180
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:19,279
Speaker 5: oh wait, no, BJ, you're going there, what do you got?

1181
00:56:19,840 --> 00:56:22,960
Speaker 4: Arsenal plus one minus one ten on the road at

1182
00:56:23,000 --> 00:56:26,400
Speaker 4: Manchester City. Listen as an Arsenal fan, I'm nervous for

1183
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:29,319
Speaker 4: this one. But the market has gotten way too high

1184
00:56:29,360 --> 00:56:31,880
Speaker 4: on Manchester City here. So if you look at expected

1185
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:34,279
Speaker 4: gold differential, City is sitting at plus one point three

1186
00:56:34,840 --> 00:56:37,120
Speaker 4: per ninety in the Premier League this season, Arsenals at

1187
00:56:37,160 --> 00:56:40,040
Speaker 4: point nine, so City is point four xg better than

1188
00:56:40,160 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 4: Arsenal this season. Home field advantage in the Premier League

1189
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:46,200
Speaker 4: is around point three xg, so City spread is only

1190
00:56:46,239 --> 00:56:48,000
Speaker 4: going to be around minus point seven, so they are

1191
00:56:48,080 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 4: overvalued with basically the spread of minus one sitting at

1192
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 4: minus one ten both ways. And this match, I believe

1193
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:55,880
Speaker 4: Arsenal is going to set up very similar to how

1194
00:56:55,920 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 4: they did last season in the second meeting, where they

1195
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 4: were very compact defense and they tried to hitch City

1196
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:03,960
Speaker 4: in transition and they were incredibly effective in doing so.

1197
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,440
Speaker 4: The first matchup between these two teams, City did the

1198
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:09,279
Speaker 4: exact opposite. They set off they con seed possession of Arsenal.

1199
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:11,960
Speaker 4: I don't see that happening again. City is gonna be

1200
00:57:12,000 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 4: down Nathan Ake, who is one of the more versatile defenders.

1201
00:57:14,760 --> 00:57:16,440
Speaker 4: So they're gonna have to put you know, Laporta or

1202
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:18,960
Speaker 4: whoever up against Kayasaka, which is not a good matchup

1203
00:57:19,000 --> 00:57:21,360
Speaker 4: for them. It's all about who's going to be available

1204
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 4: for Arsenal. Looks like Grant Shock is going to be

1205
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,400
Speaker 4: back after missing the last match due to illness, which

1206
00:57:26,400 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 4: will allow Arsenal to create their box midfield by invertings

1207
00:57:29,600 --> 00:57:31,919
Speaker 4: in Chenko in there should give them a good build

1208
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 4: up structor structure and create those advantages in wide areas,

1209
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 4: where with martin Elli and Soak going on on one.

1210
00:57:37,280 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 4: So I like Arsenal plus one at minus one ten

1211
00:57:39,880 --> 00:57:42,360
Speaker 4: because Manchester City is vastly overrated.

1212
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:44,800
Speaker 5: I'll go with Brentford. We've talked about it a lot

1213
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,600
Speaker 5: already on the show. They're taking on Chelsea there four

1214
00:57:47,640 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 5: to one underdog. I like the money line. I just

1215
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:51,560
Speaker 5: don't really think the gap between these two teams is

1216
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,520
Speaker 5: all that different, and when you consider or all that wide,

1217
00:57:54,560 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 5: and when you consider Chelsea's all over the place, they're

1218
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 5: just no structure at all, no game plan, and Brentford

1219
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 5: is quite the opposite. They'll be up for this one

1220
00:58:03,160 --> 00:58:06,280
Speaker 5: on the road. Give me the Bees once again, Anthony,

1221
00:58:06,440 --> 00:58:07,480
Speaker 5: what do you got Yeah.

1222
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 3: I'll take Hammers plus a half as well. A lot

1223
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:11,640
Speaker 3: of love for west Ham and Brentford on this episode

1224
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 3: for sure, But west Ham at home against the Liverpool

1225
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:16,680
Speaker 3: defense that has not traveled well all year, their press

1226
00:58:16,800 --> 00:58:19,919
Speaker 3: gets exposed away from home. There are twenty seven point

1227
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:22,720
Speaker 3: six xg allowed and sixteen away matches in the league.

1228
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 3: The teams that have been good direct, good in transition

1229
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 3: and good and sub pieces have wrecked them all year.

1230
00:58:28,120 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 3: Brentford forrest Bournemouth. I think Leeds as well. West Ham

1231
00:58:33,200 --> 00:58:35,800
Speaker 3: fits that profile. They're going to be very effective here

1232
00:58:35,880 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 3: and make this a back and forth affair where west

1233
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 3: Ham is undervalued and continues to.

1234
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:42,040
Speaker 2: Improve in results.

1235
00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 3: Finally, following the performances in the early season that we're

1236
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:46,560
Speaker 3: a little unlucky.

1237
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 5: All right. That wraps up this episode of Wonder Goal

1238
00:58:49,360 --> 00:58:52,160
Speaker 5: for b J. Cunningham, Anthony Dubundo, I'm michae Leeboff. Thank

1239
00:58:52,160 --> 00:58:54,439
Speaker 5: you to our sponsors's bet three six five. We see

1240
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:56,840
Speaker 5: you guys again for the weekend.

1241
00:59:05,640 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly if you or

1242
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem help is

1243
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,040
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler