1
00:00:03,040 --> 00:01:14,520
Speaker 1: Uta, and good afternoon, everybody. It's Steve Schmidt with the Warning,

2
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:18,200
Speaker 1: happy to be joined again by David Pacman of The

3
00:01:18,280 --> 00:01:21,840
Speaker 1: David Pacman Show. David, how are you you know?

4
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,520
Speaker 2: I'm hanging in there, Steve. The country has been better

5
00:01:25,720 --> 00:01:28,440
Speaker 2: at other moments in time, but I'm doing okay.

6
00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:35,000
Speaker 1: You think we have not reached the apergy of our greatness?

7
00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:35,679
Speaker 1: You don't think.

8
00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:40,440
Speaker 2: I don't think this is the peak. I really don't.

9
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:45,480
Speaker 1: Since the last time we have talked in a development

10
00:01:45,560 --> 00:01:49,400
Speaker 1: that I'm not sure would have been surprising to either

11
00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:54,240
Speaker 1: of us, America is at war. There's a lot of

12
00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 1: different ways to enter into the conversation about it. But

13
00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:04,800
Speaker 1: as an old political campaign guy, let's start here. Which

14
00:02:04,880 --> 00:02:10,840
Speaker 1: is I think it may be the most spectacular broken

15
00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:16,400
Speaker 1: promise in American political history. It bar none is in

16
00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:23,560
Speaker 1: my lifetime that Donald Trump explicitly ran that all of

17
00:02:23,600 --> 00:02:28,480
Speaker 1: these foreign wars, particularly the Middle Eastern Wars or dumb wars,

18
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 1: we have stupid leaders, and here we are. What do

19
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:37,600
Speaker 1: you think about the magnitude of that broken promise?

20
00:02:41,480 --> 00:02:45,160
Speaker 2: Definition breaks other promises he made. I'll explain what I

21
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:49,120
Speaker 2: mean when he promised that prices would go down on

22
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,919
Speaker 2: day one, and energy would be down and affordability would

23
00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:55,880
Speaker 2: return like a phoenix rising over the horizon. All of

24
00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,720
Speaker 2: this stuff, many of us were skeptical, and rightly so,

25
00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:02,840
Speaker 2: because those promises would be, even in perfect circumstances, difficult

26
00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 2: to make good on. Inflation is rarely negative in the

27
00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,640
Speaker 2: United States unless things are really bad, and so even

28
00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:13,040
Speaker 2: if inflation stayed low, it's still a positive number. Prices

29
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:16,800
Speaker 2: would still go up fine. But then we have two

30
00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:22,480
Speaker 2: optional policy decisions that only make everything more expensive. We

31
00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,480
Speaker 2: have the tariffs, which Jerome Powell, the FED Chair yesterday

32
00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,320
Speaker 2: said are responsible for fifty to seventy five percent of

33
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,640
Speaker 2: the inflation that we've seen so far. That's an optional tariff.

34
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:36,040
Speaker 2: And then now we have Donald Trump engaging in one

35
00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,280
Speaker 2: of the few things presidents can do that spike oil

36
00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,600
Speaker 2: and gas prices. Presidents shouldn't get more credit or blame

37
00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,640
Speaker 2: for gas prices than they deserve, and usually they don't

38
00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:47,840
Speaker 2: deserve that much credit or blame. It's usually related to

39
00:03:47,840 --> 00:03:50,600
Speaker 2: global business cycles. But he did one of the few

40
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,040
Speaker 2: things that can make oil and gas more expensive, which

41
00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:56,400
Speaker 2: is you go to war with a country that either

42
00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:00,280
Speaker 2: has supply or controls it through something like this straight

43
00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,200
Speaker 2: of horror moves. And so it's a broken promise at

44
00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 2: its face because he ran as the anti war president,

45
00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 2: as you pointed out. But it also wrecks his other

46
00:04:09,760 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 2: promises with regard to affordability and costs, because he's doing

47
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,160
Speaker 2: some of the few things he could to make everything

48
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:17,919
Speaker 2: more expensive.

49
00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,880
Speaker 1: Do you think it's fair at this point, twenty days

50
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,320
Speaker 1: in to look at what's happened and say Trump started

51
00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,720
Speaker 1: a war and to also say we are losing that war.

52
00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:33,520
Speaker 2: I think so. And there's two ways that we could

53
00:04:33,560 --> 00:04:36,080
Speaker 2: define what it means to lose. I mean, one is

54
00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,719
Speaker 2: this idea that Trump seems to believe that when he

55
00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,160
Speaker 2: decides it's over, it's over. Now. That's silly because he's

56
00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,920
Speaker 2: already kind of declared it over three times, and yet

57
00:04:45,960 --> 00:04:48,040
Speaker 2: we only do more bombing and more strikes. We had

58
00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:52,000
Speaker 2: another the biggest day of strikes ever was yesterday according

59
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:56,400
Speaker 2: to the administration. But the problem is we're beyond the

60
00:04:56,440 --> 00:04:58,880
Speaker 2: point at which Trump can end it. And what I

61
00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:02,320
Speaker 2: mean by that is if he genuinely said and meant

62
00:05:02,880 --> 00:05:08,600
Speaker 2: and effectuated we're done today. It's not clear that Israel

63
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,719
Speaker 2: is ready to be done. It's not clear that Iran

64
00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,479
Speaker 2: is going to say cool, We're good with it being done.

65
00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:18,400
Speaker 2: The strait of hormones does not go back to where

66
00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,960
Speaker 2: it was. The oil shock is likely to continue at

67
00:05:22,040 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 2: least for several months, even if Trump did end it today.

68
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,680
Speaker 2: And so I think that this is another aspect to this,

69
00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,160
Speaker 2: which is that Trump is operating under the premise that

70
00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:34,560
Speaker 2: he can decide when it's over and then everything kind

71
00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,479
Speaker 2: of goes back to the way he wants, which is

72
00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,039
Speaker 2: gas prices go back down, stock market goes back to

73
00:05:39,080 --> 00:05:41,560
Speaker 2: fifty thousand. But I just think it's out of Trump's

74
00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:42,560
Speaker 2: control at this point.

75
00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,120
Speaker 1: Here's how I look at this. Tell me if you

76
00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,200
Speaker 1: see it, if you see it differently, is that the

77
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:53,440
Speaker 1: United States has laid out a condition and has done

78
00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:58,039
Speaker 1: so in a number of different forms. It's said through

79
00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,640
Speaker 1: Trump that we want unconditional surrender. As you just said,

80
00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:04,480
Speaker 1: this idea that Trump ends it when he wants that,

81
00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,520
Speaker 1: Trump decides. But at the core, what we've said over

82
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:12,360
Speaker 1: and over again is that we want the Iranian regime

83
00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:15,080
Speaker 1: to fall, we want it to collapse, we want it,

84
00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,280
Speaker 1: we want it gone. So that to me is the

85
00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:23,839
Speaker 1: metric of success. If the Iranian regime falls. Donald Trump

86
00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:26,920
Speaker 1: will have succeeded in his war Aim. If it does

87
00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:30,719
Speaker 1: not fall, he will not have succeeded in his war am.

88
00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,240
Speaker 1: And for the Iranians, the Iranians are not defending the

89
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 1: Quark Island oil terminal, They're not defending the Iranian Navy.

90
00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,560
Speaker 1: What they're defending is the Iranian regime. And they don't

91
00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:49,960
Speaker 1: care how many Iranians get killed defending it. They don't

92
00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,080
Speaker 1: care about anything other than defending it. So survival of

93
00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:58,839
Speaker 1: the Iranian regime means an Iranian victory in this war.

94
00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,000
Speaker 1: And that's how twenty days into this I see the

95
00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 1: binary between the two sides. The American position. Victory requires

96
00:07:06,960 --> 00:07:12,160
Speaker 1: the Iranian regime falling, the Iranian regimes victory requires the

97
00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:16,640
Speaker 1: Iranian regime surviving, and right now to me, it looks

98
00:07:16,760 --> 00:07:19,640
Speaker 1: much more like the latter is what's going to happen

99
00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:20,600
Speaker 1: than the former.

100
00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:25,440
Speaker 2: I think that's true. I think that we also should

101
00:07:25,800 --> 00:07:29,320
Speaker 2: read into the fact that their metric for success has

102
00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:34,440
Speaker 2: changed over time. And just yesterday, the Press Secretary Caroline

103
00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:39,360
Speaker 2: Levitt said, first, the big thing is to do away

104
00:07:39,400 --> 00:07:42,680
Speaker 2: with their ballistic missile capability, which is funny in a

105
00:07:42,720 --> 00:07:47,080
Speaker 2: tragic sense because those ballistic missiles never could have reached

106
00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:50,400
Speaker 2: the United States, and so that undercuts the idea of

107
00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:53,320
Speaker 2: this as a war of necessity, if that's really But

108
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:56,200
Speaker 2: what I think it really actually goes to, Steve, is

109
00:07:56,200 --> 00:07:59,400
Speaker 2: that they're realizing if they put regime change as the

110
00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:03,520
Speaker 2: number one goal, it's unlikely to be achievable. This issue

111
00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 2: of nuclear capabilities is a problem because did we not

112
00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 2: actually obliterate them in June? Did we? But they rebuilt

113
00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:12,680
Speaker 2: them in just a few months. That would be a

114
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:17,200
Speaker 2: remarkable problem. They know those are problematic lines in the sand.

115
00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 2: So now they're kind of backing off to this ballistic

116
00:08:19,560 --> 00:08:22,040
Speaker 2: missile thing, which that's why we're doing all of this.

117
00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:24,560
Speaker 2: I don't think any American would think that that's worthwhile.

118
00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:30,040
Speaker 1: So each argument that they're putting forward undercuts another rationale,

119
00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,679
Speaker 1: right undermist it. So if you have the imminence of

120
00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:37,480
Speaker 1: a threat that they claimed existed, but the missiles which

121
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:40,640
Speaker 1: are the reason now can't reach the United States, it

122
00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,600
Speaker 1: really evidences that what Marco Rubio said on the second

123
00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,960
Speaker 1: day of the war is true. That we did it

124
00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:53,480
Speaker 1: because Israel was about to attack, and therefore we needed

125
00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 1: to strike alongside Israel. And so where do you see

126
00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:05,800
Speaker 1: Trump drawing the line and saying we want what short

127
00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,960
Speaker 1: of being able to topple the regime, what does he

128
00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,439
Speaker 1: need to be able to say in order to walk

129
00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:15,480
Speaker 1: out of this, even if it's completely delusional.

130
00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 2: Well, I think that we're seeing versions of it already,

131
00:09:19,559 --> 00:09:22,000
Speaker 2: which is when he comes out and he says, we

132
00:09:22,120 --> 00:09:25,960
Speaker 2: got thousands of targets, they have no more navy, We've

133
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:30,480
Speaker 2: destroyed everything. Because he's going to he will get to

134
00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,720
Speaker 2: a point where the desperation over what's happening to the

135
00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 2: economy overrides all other priorities. And I think he's getting

136
00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:40,560
Speaker 2: there now. If he's not there now, he's going to

137
00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,200
Speaker 2: be there very soon. And so I think that it's

138
00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,319
Speaker 2: going to be some way to argue that we won

139
00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:51,480
Speaker 2: and to say that listen, even if the Iatolas son

140
00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,800
Speaker 2: is in power, this is a diminished regime. They're terrified.

141
00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,160
Speaker 2: They know if they just say one wrong thing, Trump's

142
00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,440
Speaker 2: going to go in and them to He'll have to

143
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 2: have some kind of face saving lie to then try

144
00:10:05,400 --> 00:10:07,120
Speaker 2: to get the economy back on track, and I think

145
00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:09,200
Speaker 2: the pressure to do that is building. There's reports that

146
00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,840
Speaker 2: people are running around the White House screaming about gas

147
00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,600
Speaker 2: prices and oil prices, and that there's a panic building

148
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:19,240
Speaker 2: about the economy. So I assume that he will claim victory.

149
00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,840
Speaker 2: It'll be pretty transparently false, but it'll all be in

150
00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:25,480
Speaker 2: service of getting the energy prices back under control and

151
00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:26,839
Speaker 2: getting the stock market back up.

152
00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:34,199
Speaker 1: When we had the Obama era Iran deal and that

153
00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:40,000
Speaker 1: deal was operating, I think that most observers would say

154
00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:44,240
Speaker 1: we had a pretty good idea where the Uranians kept

155
00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:51,959
Speaker 1: the enriched uranium. At Trump said we obliterated the weapons program,

156
00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:57,640
Speaker 1: which means the obliteration of the uranium. But now it's

157
00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:02,959
Speaker 1: that we have to reobliterate the obliterated uranium. Does anybody

158
00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:07,320
Speaker 1: have any idea where the four hundred and fifty metric

159
00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:14,480
Speaker 1: tons of enriched Iranian uranium is? Does anyone? Is that

160
00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:18,439
Speaker 1: been part of the conversation so far as you can

161
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 1: see in the dialogue about this.

162
00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,640
Speaker 2: No, it hasn't been. And the other thing that's not

163
00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:27,680
Speaker 2: really part of the conversation that should be is that

164
00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,760
Speaker 2: this entire situation really was precipitated by Trump's first term

165
00:11:31,800 --> 00:11:35,680
Speaker 2: decision to rip up that nuclear deal. Look, I don't

166
00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:41,720
Speaker 2: think you have to inherently trust the Iranian regime to

167
00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 2: take the position that, while imperfect, that deal was more

168
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,960
Speaker 2: or less functioning. I mean, other than claims from Netanyahu

169
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:53,520
Speaker 2: during Trump's first term that Iran wasn't sticking to the deal,

170
00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,000
Speaker 2: which I was not convinced by. I did not find

171
00:11:56,320 --> 00:11:58,280
Speaker 2: it seems sort of like the US making the case

172
00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:01,560
Speaker 2: about WMD's in Iraq during that lead up. It didn't

173
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,320
Speaker 2: seem credible to that extent. It was really pretty much

174
00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,920
Speaker 2: keeping the development of those nukes in Iran under control.

175
00:12:09,480 --> 00:12:13,320
Speaker 2: When Trump ripped up the deal, of course Iran would

176
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,000
Speaker 2: immediately say, listen, we did what they asked, and they

177
00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,959
Speaker 2: still ripped up the deal. Let's go back to enriching.

178
00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,720
Speaker 2: It's the natural thing. Any game theorist would tell you,

179
00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,080
Speaker 2: of course, that's what you're going to do. And so that,

180
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:27,400
Speaker 2: to me is the pivotal decision, the inflection point that

181
00:12:27,520 --> 00:12:30,240
Speaker 2: led to all of this, and Trump is to blame

182
00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:30,480
Speaker 2: for that.

183
00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:38,600
Speaker 1: If you were sitting in Iran during those years, advising

184
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:45,160
Speaker 1: the Supreme Leader, advising the Ayah Tola, the argument against

185
00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:50,800
Speaker 1: proceeding with enriching uranium, against proceeding with the development of

186
00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:55,160
Speaker 1: the bomb would be one, we know how to do it.

187
00:12:56,040 --> 00:13:00,679
Speaker 1: Two will have some time to do it and read.

188
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:07,760
Speaker 1: There's no reason that necessitates right now that we risk

189
00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:13,000
Speaker 1: war with the Americans for the purposes of doing something

190
00:13:13,640 --> 00:13:16,679
Speaker 1: that we know how to do and are able to

191
00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:24,120
Speaker 1: do within so many weeks time now. Right, no matter

192
00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:28,440
Speaker 1: how you sit inside that Iranian regime, I think looking

193
00:13:28,480 --> 00:13:34,520
Speaker 1: at the world for through Iranian eyes, if the regime survives,

194
00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:37,880
Speaker 1: which which seems very likely to me, is that any

195
00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 1: person who would sit in the room and would say

196
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,679
Speaker 1: that no, we should go slow on the development of

197
00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,400
Speaker 1: our nuclear weapons is going to be left out of

198
00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:50,960
Speaker 1: the room. There is zero in self should the Iranian

199
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:56,120
Speaker 1: regime survive, for the Iranian regime to moderate, and for

200
00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 1: the Iranian regime to not pursue a nuclear weapon, because

201
00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:05,920
Speaker 1: the difference between North Korea and Iran is North Korea

202
00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:08,400
Speaker 1: has the ability to put a nuclear warhead on a

203
00:14:08,400 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 1: ballistic missile.

204
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,120
Speaker 2: That's right, No, you're you're right, and I think I

205
00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 2: think the Gadafi situation, the history with Gadafi also informs

206
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:25,480
Speaker 2: that I if you I'm against theocratic extremist regimes, I

207
00:14:25,520 --> 00:14:28,240
Speaker 2: want them to fail, right, those are my politics, but

208
00:14:28,480 --> 00:14:31,280
Speaker 2: just gaming it out, of course, you're correct, of course,

209
00:14:31,360 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 2: that's that's not only because of the practical benefits that

210
00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:40,000
Speaker 2: you're laying out, but it also creates some negotiating points

211
00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:44,800
Speaker 2: for future potential deals, including the more you have to

212
00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:48,080
Speaker 2: give up that your adversary might ask of you, the

213
00:14:48,080 --> 00:14:50,200
Speaker 2: better your position. If you don't have anything that they

214
00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:54,840
Speaker 2: would ask you to do, your negotiating position is also weakened.

215
00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,120
Speaker 2: That could be militarily, that that could be economically. So

216
00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,240
Speaker 2: I think your analysis is exactly right.

217
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 1: There are some early stories that are percolating out there

218
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:09,239
Speaker 1: that seem to suggest that the gerald Ford, the largest

219
00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 1: of the American aircraft carriers, the most sophisticated naval vessel

220
00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:17,720
Speaker 1: in the world, that a fire was deliberately set on

221
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 1: the vessel in the laundry room, the fire burned for

222
00:15:22,200 --> 00:15:25,320
Speaker 1: thirty hours, and now the vessel is retreating out of

223
00:15:25,360 --> 00:15:31,640
Speaker 1: the war zone towards a Greek port. Anything that you

224
00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 1: have read or heard about that. We of course don't

225
00:15:35,360 --> 00:15:39,160
Speaker 1: have any journalists out in the fleet. We don't have

226
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:44,960
Speaker 1: many journalists on the air bases in theater that are

227
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 1: able to tell us moment to moment what's happening. We

228
00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:53,200
Speaker 1: certainly don't have any board the gerald Ford, but Are

229
00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,080
Speaker 1: you up to the details of that of that story

230
00:15:56,160 --> 00:15:58,840
Speaker 1: at all? Are you following it only.

231
00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:01,160
Speaker 2: In so far as what you've done described. I think

232
00:16:01,600 --> 00:16:06,000
Speaker 2: the situation we all find ourselves in is that I'm

233
00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 2: starting from the assumption that this administration, people like Pete

234
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:14,680
Speaker 2: Hegseth and certainly Donald Trump himself and Caroline Lovett, they're

235
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,920
Speaker 2: not going to be upfront about what is happening if

236
00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:20,760
Speaker 2: they believe that it potentially makes them look bad because

237
00:16:20,760 --> 00:16:24,040
Speaker 2: they're never upfront or transparent about anything, whether it's Donald

238
00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,440
Speaker 2: Trump's health or the motivations for decisions that they make.

239
00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:28,840
Speaker 2: So I have the same.

240
00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:33,760
Speaker 1: About let's talk about that. How do you weigh through

241
00:16:33,800 --> 00:16:39,920
Speaker 1: that their credibility they have a zero credibility score with me,

242
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,680
Speaker 1: zero credibility across the board. I don't believe a work.

243
00:16:45,920 --> 00:16:48,200
Speaker 2: No, I'm in the same place. And what I think

244
00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,120
Speaker 2: is inevitable is that over time, if you follow this

245
00:16:52,160 --> 00:16:55,080
Speaker 2: stuff closely enough, you start to be able to read

246
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,840
Speaker 2: between the lines of the lack of transparency. And so

247
00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,640
Speaker 2: sometimes when Caroline Levet, when there's a report that Trump

248
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:04,120
Speaker 2: is furious with someone, and Caroline Levitt says the President

249
00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:09,480
Speaker 2: stands behind X person, you can assume that that person

250
00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,960
Speaker 2: might be getting fired the reporting is probably true. And

251
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,520
Speaker 2: then like with Christy nom Lo and Behold, it absolutely

252
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,040
Speaker 2: was the case that there there was a problem behind

253
00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:21,080
Speaker 2: the scenes when they put out statements and the statements

254
00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:25,040
Speaker 2: are extremely carefully worded and they don't really say anything.

255
00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 2: For example, when it was the Trump BEMRI that was

256
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:30,640
Speaker 2: actually a CT scan and they just go the President

257
00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 2: had imaging done and this is a normal thing that

258
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,600
Speaker 2: people have done. There's no information there, so you have

259
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,280
Speaker 2: to assume there's something in there that they don't want

260
00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 2: us to know. You have to develop an understanding of

261
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:45,760
Speaker 2: the shorthand that they use to communicate opaquely.

262
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:52,400
Speaker 1: My friend Dean Blundell wrote about this this morning, and

263
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 1: I just think that it is an enormously consequential story. Again,

264
00:17:57,480 --> 00:18:01,160
Speaker 1: I don't know what the details of it, but if

265
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 1: it is the case that US sailors aboard a nuclear

266
00:18:06,680 --> 00:18:11,600
Speaker 1: powered aircraft carrier deliberately started a fire in the eleventh

267
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 1: month of their deployment that burned for thirty hours to

268
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:21,080
Speaker 1: force the ship out of the war zone into port,

269
00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: that is as enormous a story inside the US military

270
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:32,639
Speaker 1: as anything that has happened in my lifetime. Just it

271
00:18:32,680 --> 00:18:36,080
Speaker 1: would be an extraordinary event. And again it's one of

272
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,880
Speaker 1: the reasons why it's so important that journalists pay attention

273
00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:43,359
Speaker 1: to the largest institution in the country, which and the

274
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 1: most lethal, which is the US military.

275
00:18:46,960 --> 00:18:52,120
Speaker 2: Well, it would be a direct sort of it would

276
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:56,119
Speaker 2: be a proactive decision to say, we don't care what

277
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,080
Speaker 2: the mission is that the commander in chief is assigning us.

278
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 2: We don't care about Pete Hegseth's view about war fighters

279
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 2: and all of this stuff. We are deciding that we're

280
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 2: taking action which would be incredible insubordination in a literal

281
00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:15,640
Speaker 2: sense mutiny, right, And also it would be reflective of

282
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:20,000
Speaker 2: just how outside the bounds and beyond the pale this

283
00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 2: entire uh failed Iran gambit is turning out to be.

284
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: Let's turn to the homeland a bit. Uh. Senator Mark

285
00:19:31,760 --> 00:19:39,520
Speaker 1: Wayne Mullen no joke, largely largely known as the dumbest

286
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 1: senator in the in the US Senate, is a title

287
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: he uh that that that that is that is ascribed

288
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: to him put on him. What did you make of

289
00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:55,720
Speaker 1: his testimony to take Christy Nomes spot at Homeland Security.

290
00:19:56,800 --> 00:20:00,480
Speaker 2: Well, he is, as are many of these confirmation hearings.

291
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 2: He is really performing for Trump at the end of

292
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 2: the day. And Christin Nome, I mean Christin Noam had

293
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 2: it right by Trumps standards for a long time, which

294
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:14,280
Speaker 2: is that everything goes back to loyalty to Trump and

295
00:20:14,320 --> 00:20:17,320
Speaker 2: Trump is so good and so smart and so on.

296
00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:21,240
Speaker 2: And what appears to have been the straw that broke

297
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 2: the camel's back with Christy Nome was that exchange with

298
00:20:24,400 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 2: Senator John Kennedy where she said, oh, yeah, yeah, Trump

299
00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:31,359
Speaker 2: was involved in these expenditures where they put my face

300
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,520
Speaker 2: on these commercials, and I guess that Trump made Trump

301
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 2: look bad, and it sort of served as the final thing.

302
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,960
Speaker 2: Mullen is making it clear by mixing it up and

303
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,280
Speaker 2: arguing with Democratic and Republican senators alike that he is

304
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 2: there to serve Donald Trump at the end of the day.

305
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,800
Speaker 2: And I was just with Governor J. B. Pritzker yesterday

306
00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 2: and spoke to him about now that Gnome is gone,

307
00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:51,520
Speaker 2: who do you think is the most dangerous He immediately

308
00:20:51,560 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 2: sort of zeroed in on Mark Wayne Mullen on the

309
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,520
Speaker 2: assumption that when you're coming in to replace someone who's

310
00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 2: loyalty fell just slightly short for the leader You're going

311
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 2: to be primed to overperform that loyalty the loyalty dance,

312
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 2: for lack of a better term, and that that could

313
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 2: make him extremely dangerous as the secretary of DHS. And

314
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 2: I think that's probably true.

315
00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: Well, what do you think about a guy like John

316
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:24,320
Speaker 1: Fetterman who wins a contested primary, and he wins that

317
00:21:24,400 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 1: contested primary as the progressive candidate against the more centrist

318
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:36,000
Speaker 1: Democrat Connor Lamb and is now essentially Trump's stooge in

319
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 1: the in the US Senate who voted for Mark Kwayne Mullen.

320
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,359
Speaker 1: Fetterman is indicated he's running for reelection, He'll be up

321
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight, may have a rematch against Connor

322
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:53,600
Speaker 1: Lamb in a Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Is where what is

323
00:21:53,680 --> 00:22:00,919
Speaker 1: Fetterman standing inside that progressive community in the Democratic Prime Party?

324
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,320
Speaker 1: The best you can tell.

325
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 2: Listen, I think that by and large the progressive wing

326
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,399
Speaker 2: of the Democratic Party has written Fetterman off and is

327
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,480
Speaker 2: pretty disgusted with him. Now, I am not a fan

328
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:17,200
Speaker 2: of almost any of the things that he has been

329
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: saying and doing. The one area where I kind of

330
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: want to be sensitive to what's going on is there's

331
00:22:23,000 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 2: been pretty widespread reporting about his health and medical struggles,

332
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 2: and this includes both physical and mental health and not

333
00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 2: being a doctor, but having read a lot about what

334
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:37,360
Speaker 2: may be going on and the behind the scenes with Fetterman,

335
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,440
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's sort of like medically fit

336
00:22:40,600 --> 00:22:44,119
Speaker 2: to be in this role. And I'm not suggesting this

337
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 2: out of nowhere. Others have suggested that that may be

338
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,440
Speaker 2: the case, and I don't know to what degree. I mean,

339
00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,240
Speaker 2: strokes and the type of depression that gets you admitted

340
00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,720
Speaker 2: to the hospital, which is something that happened to Fetterman.

341
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 2: These are things that can affect judgment, demeanor, personality, and

342
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 2: the people talk about one eighties, you know, he's done

343
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 2: a sort of political one eighty in a sense. And

344
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: I just don't know to what degree this is simply

345
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:14,360
Speaker 2: an ideological change and to what degree this is something else,

346
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 2: if that makes sense.

347
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:22,160
Speaker 1: What do you make of these warehouse facilities that are

348
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: being converted into prisons, million square foot warehouse facility in

349
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 1: a place like Social Circle, Georgia, Surprise Arizona that someone

350
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: who's had the bright idea of we can put ten thousand, fifteen,

351
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: twenty thousand people into the warehouse and being an immigration prison.

352
00:23:43,359 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 1: And upon contact with this idea, the first federal official

353
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: who heard it didn't say that's the worst idea I've

354
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:54,399
Speaker 1: ever heard. Instead, they said, that's a great idea, and

355
00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: up to chain, up to chain it went. And we

356
00:23:56,760 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 1: have all these warehouses that have been purchased, some of

357
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: them for five x they're appraised value, as was the

358
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:09,639
Speaker 1: case in Georgia, that are being purchased by DHS to

359
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:15,840
Speaker 1: house some number of thousands of people human beings in

360
00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:20,480
Speaker 1: them in these bucolic little communities. I think it's the

361
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 1: most outrageous thing I've heard in my fifty five years

362
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:30,000
Speaker 1: in terms of federal government overreach. I'm astounded by it.

363
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,280
Speaker 1: Every time I read something about it, talk about it.

364
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 1: What do you make about that?

365
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 2: So there's two layers at the micro level. If Trump's

366
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,879
Speaker 2: president and the government is buying things above their appraised value,

367
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 2: you've got to wonder what's the grift, what's the con

368
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:49,639
Speaker 2: which one of Trump's friends is benefiting? You know, I

369
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:51,159
Speaker 2: don't know that has to be I think that that

370
00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,160
Speaker 2: naturally should be investigated. As soon as you hear purchased

371
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: above a praised value. If I zoom out though, there

372
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 2: aren't really any stories of countries that decide to scale

373
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: up prison and jail capacity, detention capacity, and detain their

374
00:25:09,280 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 2: way to a better country. And when you think about

375
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 2: ways that you can build taking what is theoretically manufacturing

376
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,479
Speaker 2: or distribution capacity and saying we're going to convert this

377
00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:26,239
Speaker 2: as a country to detention and imprisonment capacity, that's not

378
00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: how countries improve and become better places. And so I

379
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 2: think that that top line, that forty thousand foot view,

380
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: the legality, I don't know, you know, it's all being explored.

381
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 2: Whether there's a scam here, it should be investigated, whether

382
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:42,160
Speaker 2: the deportation scheme is happening as Trump promised. Of course

383
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 2: it's not. But countries don't imprison and detain their way

384
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 2: to better lives for the average person. And that is

385
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,360
Speaker 2: my primary focus here.

386
00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: One of the disconnects that I think has existed inside

387
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:08,160
Speaker 1: the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is reconciling this

388
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:13,120
Speaker 1: reality is that we live in a time where trust

389
00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 1: has collapsed and trust in government is very low. If

390
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,600
Speaker 1: you're going to be the party that says I think

391
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: that government can provide a solution to problem AB or C,

392
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:34,840
Speaker 1: that you have to be able I think to argue

393
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 1: that you can competently do so. And the refutation of

394
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 1: that is most people's lived experience walking into a government

395
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 1: facility at a federal level, a county level, at a

396
00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 1: local level. For progressives and for Democrats in the years ahead,

397
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:02,120
Speaker 1: what is the philosophy that should be the north star

398
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: around accountability? When you look at just Homeland Security just

399
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:16,160
Speaker 1: a couple seconds, you have they're buying warehouses that are

400
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: worth fifty million for two hundred and fifty million dollars.

401
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 1: You have Christy Noan buying herself a fleet of luxury

402
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,360
Speaker 1: jets with bedrooms in the in the back in the

403
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 1: back of them. You have you have all of these

404
00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:34,440
Speaker 1: top Trump officials are living in the quarters that are

405
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 1: set aside on the basis for some of the nation's

406
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 1: top top military leaders. Wherever you look, there is a

407
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:51,879
Speaker 1: mountain of corruption and grift that's just unprecedented. Is the

408
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 1: what is the philosophical north store the keystone for progressives

409
00:27:58,320 --> 00:28:03,480
Speaker 1: about how you approach coach what comes next in sorting

410
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 1: through all of this waste as a credibility as a

411
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:15,840
Speaker 1: credibility as a credibility measure, I guess.

412
00:28:15,840 --> 00:28:17,919
Speaker 2: It's a really good question. You know, there's this debate

413
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 2: happening on the left, in the Democratic Party, in the

414
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: progressive wing right now about whether it's a matter of

415
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 2: running for elected office the focus should be sociocultural issues

416
00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:33,720
Speaker 2: or economic issues. And that's a perfectly reasonable debate. And

417
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,200
Speaker 2: the answer maybe different in different races and in twenty

418
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: six versus twenty eight, and depending on what happens over

419
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 2: the next couple of years. But I've been arguing now

420
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,520
Speaker 2: for some time that one of the greatest ways I

421
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 2: believe that might unite some of the disaffected MAGA people

422
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:56,680
Speaker 2: with what Democrats are offering, if it's done correctly, is

423
00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 2: a focus on accountability and anti corruption. And I think

424
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,520
Speaker 2: think that the sort of faux populist rhetoric of Trump,

425
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,239
Speaker 2: which sounds to some people sounded good enough for them

426
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: to vote for him, materializes in these overtly corrupt, self

427
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 2: serving ways, and there is clearly a group of people

428
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 2: that sees the corruption. We've seen these Manisphere podcasters going

429
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: this isn't what any of us voted for. Now, I

430
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,200
Speaker 2: would argue they just weren't paying close enough attention. They

431
00:29:27,240 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 2: should have realized that that's what they were voting for.

432
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: But that's kind of a different conversation. There's a desire

433
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 2: for listen views on abortion. Put that aside for a second.

434
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:37,880
Speaker 2: What should the top tax rate be? Put that aside

435
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 2: for a second. We need to unite around anti corruption

436
00:29:42,560 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: and accountability. I don't know that that alone wins Democrats

437
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 2: back anything necessarily, but I think that the midterms are

438
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 2: going to be an interesting sign of that. But I

439
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: believe that this anti corruption accountability message may supersede economic

440
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,760
Speaker 2: and sociocultural issues as maybe one of the greater uniting

441
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 2: forces of just getting back to something a little more decent.

442
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 1: Let's go, let's go through some of the Democrats that

443
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: are likely to run in twenty twenty eight. You said

444
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: you just spent some time with JB.

445
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:13,000
Speaker 2: Pritzker.

446
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: I had him on not long ago. I thought he

447
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,720
Speaker 1: was really impressive. But what did you think about Pritzker

448
00:30:18,760 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: and where do you rank him? And not necessarily one, two,

449
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: and three, but in you know, the top tier, secondary

450
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,320
Speaker 1: tier of candidates as day come out. What was your

451
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: take on Pritzker.

452
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 2: I was impressed with him. Extremely knowledgeable about a lot

453
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 2: of different issues in a sort of refreshing way. One

454
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 2: of the things I like about him is that he's

455
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 2: less polished, but I say that in the positive sense.

456
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 2: I recently also spent some time with Gavin Newsom, who

457
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 2: I also like and think he's doing something very interesting

458
00:30:53,320 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 2: right now. Newsom is so polished and so articulate that

459
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 2: it almost seems like, how could anyone be kind of

460
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 2: this articulate, and that some people like that, some people

461
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,479
Speaker 2: don't find it as genuine. What I think is interesting

462
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 2: about Pritzker is that he's certainly more plain spoken, just

463
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 2: as smart, I would argue, but less polished in a

464
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 2: way that I think can relate to people, and there

465
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 2: might be there might be sort of appealed to that

466
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 2: kind of where I put him in the tiers. You know,

467
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 2: here's the interesting thing in my mind, Newsome, Josh Shapiro,

468
00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:31,000
Speaker 2: and JB. Pritzker, who I think are doing a good

469
00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 2: job generally speaking as governors and more or less understand

470
00:31:35,240 --> 00:31:38,080
Speaker 2: how to talk to voters. They're all kind of in

471
00:31:38,120 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 2: a similar part of the political spectrum. And so if

472
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 2: all of them decide to run for the Democratic nomination,

473
00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:47,880
Speaker 2: and Pritzker, by the way, has said he's not, but

474
00:31:48,200 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: you know how much that matters. In twenty twenty six,

475
00:31:50,560 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 2: I don't know. They're all kind of competing for a

476
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 2: similar piece of the Democratic electorate, and so I wonder

477
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: is there really room for all of that. In some sense,

478
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,360
Speaker 2: there is, right because through these large primaries you have

479
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 2: attrition and people start to pick up support as folks

480
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:09,520
Speaker 2: drop out. But I think that it's interesting that they

481
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 2: are similarly placed on the political spectrum. I think the

482
00:32:12,320 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 2: idea of Pete bodhage Edge is interesting, and there's a

483
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: lot of people who really like him. I genuinely don't

484
00:32:18,200 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 2: know if the country is going to elect a gay

485
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,520
Speaker 2: man next. I just don't know. For me, it's no problem.

486
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 2: I don't know where the country is on that with

487
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: Shapiro and Pritzker. Is the nominee or the next president

488
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: going to be Jewish when there's more anti semitism from

489
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,600
Speaker 2: all sides than we've seen in a long time, I'm

490
00:32:37,640 --> 00:32:39,400
Speaker 2: not really sure. So I think there's like kind of

491
00:32:39,440 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 2: identity questions here. I also really like Wes Moore, the

492
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:48,160
Speaker 2: governor of Maryland, and I think he is extremely intelligent

493
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 2: and sort of knows how to play the media game

494
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:54,600
Speaker 2: to a degree. But again, I think all of these

495
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:59,280
Speaker 2: folks are sort of similarly aligned on the political spectrum.

496
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 2: The idea of Kamala Harris running again has been floated.

497
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 2: I just don't think it's a good idea. I think

498
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:07,320
Speaker 2: that it's better to go in a different direction. And

499
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 2: then further to the left. You know, there's people talking

500
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: about what about AOC, what about you know, Mom, Donnie

501
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,480
Speaker 2: like me, neither of us can be president because we

502
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 2: weren't we weren't born in the United States. I don't

503
00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,000
Speaker 2: know on the further left what's going to surface, But

504
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 2: I want the most robust wide primary. I say, get

505
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 2: everybody in and just let voters decide.

506
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: When you look at that cohort of Pritzker, Newsom in Shapiro,

507
00:33:35,280 --> 00:33:38,720
Speaker 1: who do you think is the best candidate of those

508
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: of those three?

509
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 2: It's so hard to say because of the identity things

510
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 2: I just mentioned. And then Newsome is deeply hated. The

511
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: people who dislike Newsom Newsom really dislike him, and the

512
00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: people who like Newsome really think he's great. I'm on

513
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 2: the side of if it's Newsome, I think he would

514
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 2: do a great job. If it's Pritzker, I think he

515
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:04,280
Speaker 2: would do a great job. If it's Shapiro, same thing.

516
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: I'm sort of comparing to what we've had in the

517
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 2: United States for a period of time. I don't really

518
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 2: have a strong feeling today of like, oh, if these

519
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:15,280
Speaker 2: three were the three, here's who I would support, partially

520
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 2: because I do think that they will have to differentiate

521
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: on some areas of policy, and I would end up

522
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,080
Speaker 2: just making a decision based on how that matches up

523
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:27,200
Speaker 2: with my views. But I think all three are good candidates.

524
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 2: I just I really am not sure if the Shapiro

525
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 2: and Pritzker thing with anti Semitism where it is. I

526
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 2: just don't know. I just don't know.

527
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: When you bring up pipitcha Judge, there's a poll not

528
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: so long ago that had Peepitta Judge polling at zero

529
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:55,040
Speaker 1: percent with Black Democratic voters, which means the dream is dead.

530
00:34:55,160 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: That obviously you're not a credible presidential candidate with zero

531
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:06,799
Speaker 1: percent support with Black Democratic primary voters. But let's look

532
00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 1: at Kamala Harris a little bit more deeply. If she runs,

533
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 1: and I think this is a disaster for Democrats if

534
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 1: she does it A I don't think she has any

535
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 1: chance of being the nominee. B I think it's brutal

536
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: for Biden because c it forces into the center of

537
00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:32,520
Speaker 1: the stage, a discussion about what happened in twenty twenty

538
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: four with the party. Do you think that there's any

539
00:35:36,040 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: way that she's a candidate where that discussion doesn't get

540
00:35:41,200 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 1: thrust into the front, in the center of the Democratic Party.

541
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: Oh, there's no way that that does not become a

542
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:51,840
Speaker 2: central issue. And you know a lot of people that

543
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:56,160
Speaker 2: I think that there's a difference between losing a primary

544
00:35:56,640 --> 00:36:00,399
Speaker 2: and then running again and losing a general election. There

545
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 2: are presidents that have become president after losing both. There's

546
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: no historically if you look. But it doesn't strike me

547
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 2: that right now someone who just lost to general is

548
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:16,280
Speaker 2: going to be the right sort of shepherd of the party,

549
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: so to speak. But I think that the problems you're

550
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,319
Speaker 2: bringing up are important problems, and there's no way that

551
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 2: that baggage doesn't appear. Now. The other potential candidates we're

552
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:30,279
Speaker 2: talking about have their own baggage, certainly, but it's sort

553
00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 2: of different. It's more from other roles. She was so

554
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 2: close to that position and twenty four was such a

555
00:36:37,080 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 2: disaster that I think it would be the central line

556
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 2: of attack against They're probably in a primary.

557
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: Could you see John Osoff as the Democratic nominee.

558
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people are talking about that,

559
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 2: And in fact, when I was just in Chicago, a

560
00:36:53,200 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 2: lot of the folks I ran into said, you know,

561
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 2: I really like JB. Pritzker, but Osoff is the guy

562
00:36:58,000 --> 00:37:01,279
Speaker 2: that I really like. I don't know as much about him.

563
00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 2: I know that he is an extremely powerful speaker in

564
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: terms of policy. I'm pretty well aligned with him. And

565
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: what I do find interesting is that although his national

566
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 2: profile isn't as high in general, like his national recognizability

567
00:37:17,800 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 2: isn't that high in general among political people, his name

568
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 2: keeps coming up.

569
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 1: Now.

570
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:24,759
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's a sign that that is

571
00:37:24,800 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 2: an interesting direction or not an interesting direction, right, and

572
00:37:27,960 --> 00:37:30,760
Speaker 2: the idea that a lot of people who follow politics

573
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 2: very closely talk about him. But outside of that, his

574
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 2: name recognition isn't very high. But I think he listened.

575
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: He's more than competent enough to do the job. I

576
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: don't know how interested he is in considering it. I

577
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 2: met a couple people from his staff not that long ago.

578
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 2: And note, everybody at least pretends like twenty twenty eight

579
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 2: is the furthest thing from the principle's mind. But we

580
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: know that oftentimes that's just just sort of games gamesmanship.

581
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: I think he's a really interesting candidate, though.

582
00:37:57,920 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that when you look

583
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 1: at what goes on in campaigns and politics, there's this

584
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 1: predilection inside the Democratic Party that before you talk about policy,

585
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,080
Speaker 1: you have to publish a seven hundred page book with

586
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:15,359
Speaker 1: every detail on every issue. I want to I want

587
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: to ask you a couple of questions, broadly about policy,

588
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 1: and through the prism of should the Democrats before this

589
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,840
Speaker 1: or should the Democrats be against this? And I'm going

590
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:35,000
Speaker 1: to make an argument that Democrats should before breaking up

591
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 1: the big tech companies and taking away their legal immunities,

592
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: and as a general proposition, having a very aggressive approach

593
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: towards breaking up these giant media companies as well. The

594
00:38:56,160 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 1: idea that one ownership group owns fifty to sixty television

595
00:39:00,440 --> 00:39:04,839
Speaker 1: stations around the country bad news. And that at a

596
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:11,439
Speaker 1: core level, your average person should understand that wherever there

597
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: are great concentrations of power, wherever there's a pool of

598
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:22,759
Speaker 1: one thousand people all worth sixty billion dollars, the Democratic

599
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: Party is against that. Does that seem about right to you?

600
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 1: Where you think that's in the wrong direction?

601
00:39:29,600 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 2: I think that's completely right. First of all, it goes

602
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 2: directly to the anti corruption narrative that I proposed earlier,

603
00:39:38,440 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 2: which I believe would unite not just democratic and left

604
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 2: wing voters, but maybe even pull in some disaffected MAGA people.

605
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:49,879
Speaker 2: So on that note, I think absolutely. The trick of it,

606
00:39:50,000 --> 00:39:54,320
Speaker 2: I think is it seems obvious that anyone would understand

607
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 2: why those concentrations are bad. But to someone who just

608
00:39:58,880 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: sort of more casually follows these things, these corporations aren't

609
00:40:02,600 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: terrible at arguing that this concentration leads to both convenience

610
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 2: and lower prices, which is not necessarily true. Maybe the convenience,

611
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,920
Speaker 2: I'm not sure, Like, is it more convenient to return

612
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:16,320
Speaker 2: stuff that you bought on Amazon at Whole Foods? Yeah? Maybe,

613
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,680
Speaker 2: I don't know. But the point I'm getting to is

614
00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 2: I think that it will require a concerted effort to

615
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:28,080
Speaker 2: communicate in really clear terms what the stakes are with

616
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: that level of concentration, just to make sure that people

617
00:40:31,160 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: see it as a salient issue, and the sort of

618
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 2: contrast would be I don't know that in twenty twenty

619
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: four voters really bought the idea that democracy was at stake.

620
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: If you vote for Trump. In fact, I think the

621
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:51,959
Speaker 2: election results sort of prove like that wasn't emotionally salient enough,

622
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 2: and so I agree completely with what you're outlining as

623
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:57,960
Speaker 2: the position of Democrats and what it should be. I

624
00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:00,360
Speaker 2: think the trick of it will be communicate it in

625
00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 2: a way that activates people.

626
00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 1: Well. I know at the Save America movement that back

627
00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 1: in late summer early September, my basic position was, I

628
00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:16,360
Speaker 1: don't give a shit what the polling says. The number

629
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,799
Speaker 1: one issue in this country is the secret police. It's

630
00:41:20,840 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: ice now, and this is a Republican philosophy. That message

631
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: drives numbers. Here we are that for Democratic voters they

632
00:41:33,120 --> 00:41:37,480
Speaker 1: see the assault on Americans liberty as the number one issue,

633
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,680
Speaker 1: which I think says all that you need to say

634
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 1: about the fidelity of democracy as an issue. I think

635
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 1: it's very important for every Democrat, for every progressive to

636
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 1: understand that no Democrats should get a pass on saying

637
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 1: that the American people rejected democracy in twenty twenty four.

638
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:02,359
Speaker 1: With the American people reject was the farce of an

639
00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: entire party lining up behind an eighty two year old

640
00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,760
Speaker 1: guy who couldn't speak in a coherent sentence about democracy

641
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:13,040
Speaker 1: and couldn't walk up a flight of stairs, and the

642
00:42:13,080 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: whole party apparatus shouting down anyone who dared to say

643
00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,880
Speaker 1: I think we could lose the election to someone who's

644
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:26,200
Speaker 1: an actual catastrophe for the country. And that is why

645
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 1: Donald Trump sits in the White House. I mean, it

646
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 1: will never, ever, ever not be amongst the most amazing

647
00:42:33,360 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 1: events in the history of this country that the most

648
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:42,319
Speaker 1: prolific liar by lie counts its Hitler and Goebels was

649
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: elected twice over three elections, and in the two victories

650
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,799
Speaker 1: he was seen as the more honest candidate than his

651
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: Democratic opponent and then the last one. More honest on

652
00:42:55,400 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 1: the economy, more honest on the border, more honest on

653
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: Biden's fitness. And part of the problem now that Trump

654
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 1: has is the things that he was viewed as being

655
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 1: honest about. The people have turned against him on on

656
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:12,480
Speaker 1: immigration and on the and on the war, of course,

657
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,319
Speaker 1: which he can't talk his way out of, because the

658
00:43:16,360 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 1: one thing everybody knew he was against, and his and

659
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: his movement was named for the isolationist of the nineteen thirties,

660
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 1: was was against the foreign wars. David, last question, last

661
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 1: question for you on the if I have you back

662
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 1: on a month we get together. A month from now,

663
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,399
Speaker 1: are we still dropping bombs on our n.

664
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:42,160
Speaker 2: You know, I think the administration will be saying that

665
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:45,880
Speaker 2: we are not, but I think it's still likely that

666
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 2: there will still be some hostilities.

667
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:48,040
Speaker 1: Yeah.

668
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 2: I think Trump will have long claimed that it's over

669
00:43:50,680 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 2: a month from now, but that there will still be

670
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:57,719
Speaker 2: reporting that we aren't exactly done. I would expect four

671
00:43:57,719 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 2: weeks from now.

672
00:43:58,360 --> 00:44:01,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, perfect, I used to end it. David Pacman, The

673
00:44:01,800 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 1: David Pacman Show one of the best out there on

674
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 1: all of the independent media. Urge you to follow him,

675
00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:12,439
Speaker 1: subscribe to him. He's the best. Thank you every Thank

676
00:44:12,440 --> 00:44:15,279
Speaker 1: you very much everybody for spending some time with us

677
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:16,360
Speaker 1: this Thursday afternoon.

678
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:18,439
Speaker 2: Take care, Thanks Steve, talk to you soon.

679
00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:19,760
Speaker 1: Take care, David

680
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 2: Passsssssssssssssssssssssssss