WEBVTT - US Election Preview 2024 0:00:02.440 --> 0:00:09.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:09.160 --> 0:00:13.280 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:16.320 Eastern on Affo card playing Android otto with the Bloomberg 0:00:16.400 --> 0:00:19.640 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:19.960 --> 0:00:21.640 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:24.959 Let's sit down to Washington, DC's talk a little bit 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:27.280 of policy here, and we could do that with Nathan Dean. 0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:30.720 He's a Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst. Nathan, what's the 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:33.480 feeling in DC as the rest of the country starts 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.880 going to the polls here? Anybody any smart money leaning 0:00:36.920 --> 0:00:38.600 one way or the other? Or is it, as most 0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:41.280 folks suggest, really too close to call at this point. 0:00:41.960 --> 0:00:43.600 So I think it's too close to call on the 0:00:43.640 --> 0:00:46.080 presidential race and then the House race. I think essentially 0:00:46.200 --> 0:00:48.239 I could think I can tell you who I think 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:49.360 is going to win, but then I have to give 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:51.360 you a five minute explanation, and if I do that, 0:00:51.440 --> 0:00:53.959 I'm not really explaining anything. But what we can say 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:55.800 is is that we generally think the Republicans are going 0:00:55.840 --> 0:00:58.640 to take the Senate. Why this is a very difficult 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.200 race for the Democrats. They're defending twenty three out of 0:01:01.240 --> 0:01:04.160 the thirty four seats out there, Senator Joe Manchin is resigning. 0:01:04.280 --> 0:01:06.959 The Republicans are gonna most likely take bust Virginia. They 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:09.959 could potentially take Montana as well. You know, Senator John 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:12.360 Tester is not doing so well there in the polling wise, 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:14.080 But why does that matter? What it means that if 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.880 President Trump wins, a deregulatory effort can happen much quicker. 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:19.440 And if Kamala Harris wins, it means the Republicans can 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.600 effectively block under jam up a lot of her nominees 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:25.000 for their own regulatory efforts. But just on the main 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.120 thing of who's gonna win the race, We're gonna have 0:01:27.160 --> 0:01:27.960 to wait until tonight. 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:33.040 What are the implications for investors here and for markets? 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.800 You know, what kind of results could we be hearing 0:01:35.920 --> 0:01:39.360 in the next few days that would move the market 0:01:39.440 --> 0:01:41.080 that investors would need to know about. 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:43.200 Yeah, So we were trying to think of like the 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.280 major catalysts of what happens if you get a Harris 0:01:46.400 --> 0:01:48.920 victory versus a Trump victory. The first one is tariff's 0:01:49.160 --> 0:01:50.720 I mean, we think that the tariffs are going to 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:52.600 come no matter who wins the president next year. But 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:55.360 is it a broad tarot tariff sixty percent on all 0:01:55.400 --> 0:01:58.000 goods coming from China or a very small subset. So 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:00.480 once you decide, once we figure out who the president is, 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:03.440 will know what the tariff outlook look likes for next year. 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:06.240 The other thing is investment banks. If Kamala Harris wins 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:08.640 the Buzzle three end game, a rule that increases capital 0:02:08.680 --> 0:02:11.239 about nine percent for the banks, well must likely go forward. 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:13.760 If President Trump wins, that's not gonna happen. The Inflation 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.800 Reduction Act mostly cemented if Kamala Harris wins, could be tweaked. 0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:20.360 So if you have exposure to renewables and the renewables industry, 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:22.720 that's something to keep in mind. And then the last 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:24.600 thing is is that if the Republicans have a great 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:26.840 night and take the House, the Senate, and the presidency, 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:30.760 then the opportunity for reconciliation for massive tax reform next 0:02:30.840 --> 0:02:33.839 year think multi trillion dollar tax reform at the tail 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.200 end of twenty twenty five. That comes to play if 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:37.359 the Republicans have a great night. 0:02:38.200 --> 0:02:41.200 If President former President Trump were to win, what would 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.519 he do on day one? Would he be a just 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:45.560 doing tariffs across the board, because that is something that 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:46.400 a president can do. 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:49.720 Yeah, so you know, President Trump, if you look at 0:02:49.760 --> 0:02:52.560 the executive orders now, our view is is that i'd 0:02:52.600 --> 0:02:55.040 say about eighty five percent of executive orders are symbolic 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:56.840 in nature. It's the fancy way of the president picking 0:02:56.880 --> 0:02:59.000 up the phone and directing to his or her staff 0:02:59.040 --> 0:03:01.480 do something either legit slate route or the regular toy route. 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:03.519 But the power of the presidency is more powerful in 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:07.320 that other fifteen percent, and that's national security, foreign relations, tariffs, 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:11.240 and trade. Now, Congress is largely delegated tariffs to the president, 0:03:11.600 --> 0:03:13.240 and there's some thought out there that, you know, President 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:15.760 Trump would need congressional authorization. Our view is is that 0:03:15.840 --> 0:03:18.959 there's a lot that he could do nilatterally, and so 0:03:19.040 --> 0:03:21.919 if President Trump comes in day one, expect those executive 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:23.760 orders to come out. Now, when it comes to tariff, 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:25.760 I think you would see the red line come across 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:28.919 the Bloomberg terminal and say, you know, President Trump's signs 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.960 executive order on tariff. Within the language of that tariff 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:35.040 executive order, though there'd be languages essentially saying this won't 0:03:35.040 --> 0:03:37.200 go into fruition for another two hundred seventy days or 0:03:37.200 --> 0:03:40.160 three hundred and sixty five days. Why, it's a negotiation tool, 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.760 and presidents don't want to back themselves up into corners. 0:03:43.000 --> 0:03:45.680 They want the flexibility to see what the reciprocal tariff 0:03:45.680 --> 0:03:48.160 would look like before it actually goes into fruition. So 0:03:48.240 --> 0:03:50.000 there's a little bit of headline risk there, but the 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.280 ultimate impact of a tariff, if President Trump wins, would 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.120 probably be in the second or third quarter of next year. 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:57.840 And Nathan, what are you going to be watching for 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:02.360 policy wise with the l duck president if we do 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:05.160 find out a winner, let's say this week or even 0:04:05.200 --> 0:04:05.640 next week. 0:04:06.320 --> 0:04:08.000 Yeah, you know, it's hard to believe we're talking about 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:10.200 lame duck, but Congress comes back next week. And so 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.640 there are a couple things that the lobbyists around town 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:15.040 are all love and see if they can get this attached, 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:16.960 because remember we have a government funding fight coming up 0:04:17.000 --> 0:04:19.720 in December. Now, there's two things that we're really looking on. 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:20.840 First as stable coins. 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:23.200 Now, there's this idea that there's a stable coin bill 0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:25.280 that get passed during the lame duck. I may be 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:27.200 a little bit out of consensus. I don't think it's 0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:29.480 going to happen. I think it's they're going to push 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.040 the can to twenty twenty five because lame ducks are 0:04:32.040 --> 0:04:35.279 always optimistic from the lobbyist perspective, but when the reality 0:04:35.360 --> 0:04:37.040 hits and most people just want to go home because 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.840 the election's over, they usually don't tend to have much 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.400 outs there. The other thing I would just note is 0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:44.800 Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois will most likely try to 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.280 reattach his bill called the Credit Card Competition Act. If 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:50.279 you've flown through La Guardia Newark, you may have seen 0:04:50.320 --> 0:04:53.080 the ads about these credit card This bill taking away 0:04:53.160 --> 0:04:55.560 credit card points associated with airlines and so for like that. 0:04:55.839 --> 0:04:58.400 Like this this would open up competition in terms of 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.840 networks on credit cards. Again, some headline risk there. I 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:03.719 don't think it's going to happen though. I think again 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:06.479 they'll get kicked to twenty twenty five, but certainly something 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:07.320 we have to pay attention to. 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:09.440 All Right, Nathan, thank you so much. We appreciate it. 0:05:09.520 --> 0:05:12.520 Nathan Dean, he's a senior policy analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:16.080 He's down there in Washington, DC. He and his Tim team, 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:19.960 they really focus on policies coming out of Congress and 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:23.080 which industries and then maybe down to the company levels 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:25.040 which will be impacted. And that's the research that he 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.360 and his team do, and it's widely valued by Bloomberg 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.560 customers because we know many many industries are heavily regulated 0:05:31.640 --> 0:05:34.920 and dependent upon government policy. So it's good to have 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:36.640 Nathan Dean and his team down there in TC. 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:42.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:45.360 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar. 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:47.719 Play and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:05:47.880 --> 0:05:50.680 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:05:50.760 --> 0:05:55.119 flagship New York station Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.960 Let's get back to this election here. Henrietta Trez has 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:03.160 been a valued a source for us all things politics 0:06:03.200 --> 0:06:05.320 here for a long time. We appreciate getting a few 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.720 minutes or a time. She's managing partner and director of 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:12.440 Economic policy at Vada Partners. Henrietta, we've got early votes. 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:15.720 Is there anything we can glean from early voting? And 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:17.760 if so, which states should we kind of look at? 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:20.960 Yeah, we do have early votes. 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.200 I think there's really only two states that I feel 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:27.240 comfortable saying or giving us strong indications right now, and 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:29.680 they're both very promising for Donald Trump. I think in 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:34.200 Nevada and in North Carolina, the early vote turnout. The 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:37.359 get out the vote initiative that the Trump campaign has 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.560 embraced this year, unlike the last cycle, is really for 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.760 in person early voting, and both states have done that 0:06:43.920 --> 0:06:46.320 in droves, and we're seeing that sort of nationwide and 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.320 all the early voting, a lot of rural Republican voters 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:53.040 have turned out much larger numbers than we saw either 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.720 in twenty twenty two or in twenty twenty. So his 0:06:55.880 --> 0:06:59.080 supporters are definitely getting the email and the memo about 0:06:59.080 --> 0:06:59.839 getting out there early. 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:05.240 So does that change your forecast at all for who 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.800 actually is going to win the electoral college? Because if 0:07:08.800 --> 0:07:12.520 I'm reading the notes, your most recent forecast was that 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:17.080 president or Vice President Harris would actually win the electoral college. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:18.520 That's right. 0:07:18.600 --> 0:07:21.120 So the early vote is telling me that the electoral 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.120 college map that I have passed out for each candidate 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.200 is still holding strong and looks correct. So I expect 0:07:27.320 --> 0:07:29.800 Donald Trump to win Nevada. I expect Donald Trump to 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:33.320 win North Carolina and Georgia. The two of the last 0:07:33.400 --> 0:07:38.080 two are pickups. Arizona, Georgia and North Nevada are all 0:07:38.120 --> 0:07:40.800 pickups for Donald Trump this year that I'm expecting. 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:43.400 And that's what early voting is showing. There's a lot 0:07:43.440 --> 0:07:44.480 of different opinion out there. 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:46.920 John Ralston, who is excellent in Nevada, is saying that 0:07:48.280 --> 0:07:50.520 sorry couple areas is going to win by zero point 0:07:50.560 --> 0:07:54.000 three percent in Nevada. And of course Democrats have eked 0:07:54.000 --> 0:07:56.000 out wins in the state of Nevada for the last 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.200 two cycles, and that's based off of sort of the 0:07:59.280 --> 0:08:02.480 legacy if they Harry Reid machine, and Jackie Rosen continues 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:05.040 to pull well ahead of her competitor in the state. 0:08:05.120 --> 0:08:07.680 At the Senate level, what you're seeing in Nevada and 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:12.240 Arizona is actually that fifteen percent of the Republican constituency 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:15.360 in those two states are voting for the Democratic Senate candidate. 0:08:15.640 --> 0:08:18.320 So if there's crossover that early vote can't pick up. 0:08:18.520 --> 0:08:20.040 I don't know how you voted, I just know that 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:24.160 you did vote. If there's crossover amongst Republicans into the 0:08:24.240 --> 0:08:27.320 Harris camp, that is a that's going to be a 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:30.000 surprise that is not registered either in the polls, which 0:08:30.040 --> 0:08:32.600 are finding everything sort of neck and neck, and it's 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:33.760 not going to be something that we know from the 0:08:33.760 --> 0:08:35.880 early vote, because we don't know how you voted, so 0:08:36.000 --> 0:08:39.320 that could be a shift that we see on election night, 0:08:39.360 --> 0:08:42.600 But my expectation that they both go for Trump. But overarchingly, 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:45.280 I still anticipate that Harris will win Michigan, Wisconsin, and 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:47.640 Pennsylvania and that gets her two hundred and seventy Electoral 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.000 College votes, and that's why my odds are sixty percent that. 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:50.440 She will win. 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:52.880 Interesting, Henriette, we had a poll come out in the 0:08:52.920 --> 0:08:55.360 last couple days from the state of Iowa that was 0:08:55.360 --> 0:08:57.920 surprising for a lot of people showing that Vice President 0:08:58.000 --> 0:09:00.959 Harris doing a leading in next which typically is a 0:09:01.040 --> 0:09:04.079 Republican state. What did you make of that poll in 0:09:04.240 --> 0:09:05.839 that What does that tell you? 0:09:07.400 --> 0:09:11.720 You know, it really reinforces the story of this election cycle. 0:09:11.920 --> 0:09:14.240 There's been a tremendous amount of focus on the black 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.760 and Latino youth vote, and specifically the youth mail vote, 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:21.160 and how there's been a draw away from the Democratic 0:09:21.240 --> 0:09:24.079 Party and towards the Republican Party. What I think that 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:28.080 whole conversation has missed is that the story of elections 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:31.199 is really the suburbs. The suburbs vote the most, They 0:09:31.400 --> 0:09:35.640 are the arbiters of the election cycle. So in twenty sixteen, 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:38.960 they swung four points for Donald Trump. In twenty twenty, 0:09:39.040 --> 0:09:41.400 they swung two points for Joe Biden, and they decided 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.680 the outcome of the election. Right now, in critical states 0:09:44.760 --> 0:09:48.880 like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia suburbs are going strongly for 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.720 Kamala Harris. And so the story of the Seltzer poll 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.679 I thought was fascinating. The twenty three percent of the 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.720 Iowa voters in the suburbs plus twenty three for Kamala Harris. 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:01.920 That's an indicat that the suburb story is correct, and 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:04.840 I think we can translate that nationwide. I don't expect 0:10:04.840 --> 0:10:07.079 Tamala Hiris to win Iowa, but the story of the 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:09.760 suburbs is what I really want to focus on when 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:12.560 I see that poll and then transcribe to swing states. 0:10:13.920 --> 0:10:16.959 How of each candidates kind of catered toward towards that 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:22.240 suburban vote. Are there certain issues that you study that 0:10:22.440 --> 0:10:25.520 resonate more with the suburban voters that the candidates have 0:10:25.600 --> 0:10:28.760 been I guess trying to touch on democracy. 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:31.240 This concept of democracy being on the ballot is a 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:34.000 really big deal in the suburbs. They think that that 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:37.559 issue is critical and then beyond that you have abortion 0:10:37.840 --> 0:10:40.240 that Democrats try to hammer home, and on the right 0:10:40.360 --> 0:10:41.120 you have immigration. 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:43.480 It's really those top three issues. 0:10:43.559 --> 0:10:47.559 The economy is important, but it's such a misleading or 0:10:47.640 --> 0:10:51.439 misguiding polling question these days because your view of the 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:55.560 economy is mostly defined by whether you support Joe Biden 0:10:55.880 --> 0:10:59.880 or Donald Trump Biden's administration or Trump on the camp 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.040 pay trail. So if you side with either of those 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:05.400 two parties, that dictates your view of how the economy 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.120 is going. I think once now that inflation has been 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:12.480 tamped down and gas prices are back well below their 0:11:12.520 --> 0:11:15.800 twenty twenty two levels and are down now to three 0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:20.079 dollars or less nationwide on average, it's an opportunity for 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:23.000 the two campaigns to talk about other issues besides just 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.840 the economy, and we see abortion, immigration leading. 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:28.400 And then democracy in these suburbs is really critical. 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:30.439 And we had a summer suggesting that we may not 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:35.040 know the winner of the presidential race for days. Isn't 0:11:35.080 --> 0:11:37.640 that in and of itself a problem for the US 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:41.679 should in our country, with our technology, be able to 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:44.679 know almost in real time kind of how the voting's going. 0:11:44.720 --> 0:11:46.880 I just don't understand where it feels it feels like 0:11:46.920 --> 0:11:48.119 our system is so antiquated. 0:11:49.320 --> 0:11:51.400 I completely agree, and I think it's a great point 0:11:51.480 --> 0:11:54.760 to make. Right now, Why can't we start counting ballots 0:11:54.800 --> 0:11:56.920 the second that they start coming in? You know, I 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:59.280 think that's a little frustrating. So you have a state 0:11:59.400 --> 0:12:02.240 like pennsylvani where all these poll workers and they have 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.120 so many this year that are you know, really doing 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:08.640 the large work. They're you know, they're early, they're expanding 0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:13.040 voting hours, and they are you ready to put those 0:12:13.200 --> 0:12:16.520 ballots through the machine to have them read. We should 0:12:16.720 --> 0:12:19.120 definitely be capable of starting that early. They had the 0:12:19.160 --> 0:12:21.200 opportunity in the last couple of years with all these 0:12:21.280 --> 0:12:25.680 different refinements in the ballot process and collecting and changing 0:12:25.720 --> 0:12:28.120 of laws like we've seen in Georgia, for example, they're 0:12:28.120 --> 0:12:31.080 going to start reporting out different county data at eight pm, 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.160 which is going to be one of our first arbiters 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:34.280 of how the night is going. 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.040 But I completely agree. I wish they could move this along. 0:12:38.520 --> 0:12:38.720 Yeah. 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.280 Interesting, I'm sure some kid in garage that in Palalatha 0:12:41.320 --> 0:12:43.040 could come up the napp and like, you know, a day. 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:45.880 Henrietta Trez, thank you so much for joining us. Henriette. 0:12:45.880 --> 0:12:48.080 It has been so helpful to us during this whole 0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.000 election process. She's a managing partner and director of Economic 0:12:51.080 --> 0:12:54.600 Policy and VATA Partners. She is down there in New Orleans, 0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:56.520 I believe Louisiana's where she's Basically. 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:01.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence part Catch us live 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:04.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Focarplay and enroud Otto 0:13:04.840 --> 0:13:07.719 with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:10.800 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:15.800 Damily Graffeo sitting in for Alex Steel on Pulse when 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.840 you were live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio. 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:23.400 Complete coverage of this election throughout the day, markets, trading, hires, 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:25.920 John is just reporting. Let's check in with Jennifer Lawless. 0:13:26.080 --> 0:13:30.160 She's a professor at the University of Virginia. Did you 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:33.080 arrange this? Is this you're doing? This was a pleasant 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:37.200 spri very good. Emily Graffeo was also a proud graduate 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:40.839 of the University of Virginia down in Charlottesville. Jennifer, what 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.080 are you looking for today? What should we are our listeners, 0:13:44.160 --> 0:13:46.959 our viewers, what should they be paying attention to today? 0:13:48.840 --> 0:13:51.800 Well, The most important thing is that every listener who 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.439 hasn't already cast a ballot go out and vote. And 0:13:54.679 --> 0:13:57.000 looking at the length of those lines, just getting a 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.920 sense of the enthusiasm at the polling places, I think 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:02.400 will at least let people know whether this is going 0:14:02.480 --> 0:14:03.839 to be a high turnout election or not. 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:05.680 But we're really not going to know. 0:14:05.720 --> 0:14:08.360 Anything until this evening, when the polls close and the 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:10.760 early signs will be in North Carolina and Georgia. 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.640 What are we hearing so far? I guess how are 0:14:14.720 --> 0:14:18.520 you understanding the closing messages from both candidates? I know 0:14:18.640 --> 0:14:22.480 that Trump is set to speak at eleven am. 0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:25.680 Perhaps it's uncertain, so we'll see. 0:14:25.880 --> 0:14:28.000 So but what are we understanding right now? Professor Lawllace 0:14:28.040 --> 0:14:30.960 about the closing messages from both candidates. 0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.600 Well, it seems to me that the closing messages for 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:37.040 the Harris campaign are the messages that she's been conveying 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.280 for the last ninety or one hundred days. She's been 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:42.200 very disciplined and on script, and that's basically that it's 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.480 time to turn a new page. If people want new leadership, 0:14:45.520 --> 0:14:48.760 if they want a new generation, if they want new policies. 0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:51.840 Kamala Harris is the way forward, and Donald Trump is 0:14:51.920 --> 0:14:54.640 basically trying to make the case that the Biden Harris 0:14:54.680 --> 0:14:57.200 administration broke it and he can fix it. It's a 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:59.600 challenge for him, obviously, both because he has a hard 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:03.440 time stay on message, but also because he's been president already, 0:15:03.560 --> 0:15:06.280 so he's trying to portray himself as the change candidate 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.640 and she's trying to portray him as the incumbent. 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:13.160 Jennifer, how long are we gonna have to wait, you 0:15:13.280 --> 0:15:16.840 believe for the presidential election to be called? I mean, 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:18.920 this is going to be a dicey situation from what 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:22.080 we understand because of some of the mail inboundings, and 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:23.520 just because it's so close. 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.640 It's difficult to know. But if Harris performs well or 0:15:28.840 --> 0:15:31.920 wins in North Carolina or Georgia, it's hard to see 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:34.480 a Trump victory, and then we would likely know early. 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:35.920 We would probably know by tomorrow. 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:39.080 If Donald Trump wins in North Carolina and Georgia, both 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.960 of which are states that he's been actively campaigning in 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:45.120 and Republicans typically win, then it could go on for 0:15:45.200 --> 0:15:47.120 a lot longer because we're going to have to wait 0:15:47.200 --> 0:15:50.240 for all of the counting in Pennsylvania and perhaps Arizona, 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.280 both of which are notoriously slow and don't start counting 0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:53.840 until late. 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.520 You have written a number of books that have to 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:02.360 do with gender and politics, and I'm wondering, when you 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:07.880 look at this presidential race, to what extent has gender 0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:13.680 played a role? Have you been surprised? I guess maybe 0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:18.440 about the lack of gender roles. At least it seems 0:16:18.520 --> 0:16:22.720 like Vice President Harris has not played up as much 0:16:23.120 --> 0:16:25.240 that she is a woman running, and she has perhaps 0:16:25.280 --> 0:16:27.160 brought up other issues a little bit more. But I'm 0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:29.640 wondering what you think that's right. 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.520 Kamala Harris has not played into the breaking the glass ceiling. 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:35.160 She would be the first woman in the White House 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:37.960 narrative that we saw very prominently featured in the twenty 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:41.920 sixteen campaign of Hillary Clinton. But gender is still very 0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.120 very significant this selection cycle. Not only do we have 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.640 a substantial gender gap where women are more likely than 0:16:47.720 --> 0:16:50.520 men to prefer Harris and men are significantly more likely 0:16:50.640 --> 0:16:53.080 than women to prefer Trump, but the issues on the 0:16:53.120 --> 0:16:57.360 agenda have also been speaking specifically to gendered roles in 0:16:57.480 --> 0:17:00.400 gendered concerns, and so the Harris campaign, for a example, 0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:04.040 has really been highlighting reproductive rights and freedom and abortion 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:07.479 rights and what a Trump administration would mean for women's 0:17:07.520 --> 0:17:10.919 bodily autonomy and the Trump administer The Trump campaign has 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.399 basically seeded a lot of those female swing voters and 0:17:14.480 --> 0:17:18.240 has tried very very hard to motivate young men, especially 0:17:18.320 --> 0:17:20.760 those between the ages of eighteen and twenty nine, to 0:17:20.880 --> 0:17:23.760 come out and vote under this threat of their country 0:17:23.800 --> 0:17:26.760 being taken away from them. So, even though the sex 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:29.359 of the candidate hasn't been as prominently featured in the 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:33.160 campaign narratives, the issues and the vuying for male versus 0:17:33.240 --> 0:17:35.280 female voters has been on high display. 0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:40.399 Jennifer Below the presidential election down ballot, what are the 0:17:40.480 --> 0:17:41.119 key races for you? 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:46.320 The key Senate races to watch are John Tester in Montana. 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.959 If he somehow manages to hold on, then it's going 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.600 to be a very good night for the Democrats and 0:17:51.840 --> 0:17:55.280 Colin already vying against Ted Cruz in Texas. If already 0:17:55.320 --> 0:17:57.840 manages to knock out Ted Cruz, that would be the 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:00.440 shocker of the night. It's likely that the it will 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:03.080 go Republican, but there are a couple of indicators that 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:05.840 could be harbingers of success for Democrats. 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:11.919 So what is the What does a professor of politics 0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.760 at the University of Virginia do an election night? Do 0:18:15.840 --> 0:18:19.560 you stay up all night and hope that a decision 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:23.240 comes in or do you just go to sleep and 0:18:23.359 --> 0:18:25.320 know that this is going to take a while because 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.719 I'm wondering, like what we should what we should all 0:18:27.800 --> 0:18:28.120 be doing? 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.680 Well, I committed to you guys for five ten am 0:18:32.720 --> 0:18:35.240 tomorrow morning, so a lot of sleep will not be had. 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:40.399 But yeah, I mean it's basically the election day is 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:42.760 where it all comes to an end. There's nothing to 0:18:42.800 --> 0:18:45.199 do anymore, there's nothing to watch, there are no events, 0:18:45.240 --> 0:18:48.440 there are no final you know, strategies to assess. This 0:18:48.600 --> 0:18:51.320 is it, and so once the returns start coming in, 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:53.840 it's just a matter of watching and trying to analyze 0:18:53.880 --> 0:18:56.280 the results of the exit polls that are released and 0:18:56.440 --> 0:18:58.720 getting a better sense of where the numbers are. But 0:18:59.160 --> 0:19:00.959 if we look back to twenty twenty, I don't think 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:04.280 I slept for five days. The winner wasn't announced until Saturday. 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:06.560 So it's just a matter of watching those ticking screens 0:19:06.600 --> 0:19:08.960 the same way that everybody else does and trying to 0:19:09.000 --> 0:19:11.200 figure out what's going on. But I would tell people 0:19:11.320 --> 0:19:14.960 that you know, if Harris doesn't win North Carolina or 0:19:15.000 --> 0:19:17.440 Georgia early, they can go to sleep because we're not 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:18.240 going to know tonight. 0:19:18.520 --> 0:19:20.560 All right, Jennifer, thank you so much for joining us. 0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:24.199 Jennifer Lawless, she's a professor at the University of Virginia. 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:26.200 Joining us from Charlottesville via zoom. 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:31.320 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:19:31.440 --> 0:19:34.359