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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisner. Here

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Speaker 1: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 2: Special counsel Jack Smith is going directly to the US

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Speaker 2: Supreme Court for a final decision. This goes to whether

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is entitled to absolute immunity. That Baxter has

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Speaker 2: that story and more from the nine to sixty news

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Speaker 2: room in San Francisco.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, Brian, that's a Trump claim that he

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Speaker 3: has total immunity in the January case accusing him of

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Speaker 3: being part of the effort to overturn the election. He

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Speaker 3: lost a decision from District Judge Tanya Chutkin. Bloomberg Supreme

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Speaker 3: Court reported Greg Stores says Smith wants to go directly

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Speaker 3: now to the highest court.

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Speaker 4: And today Jack Smith said, we need this matter resolve

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Speaker 4: so urgently that I'm going to go straight to the

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Speaker 4: Supreme Court. Supreme Court, please take this matter up without

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Speaker 4: even waiting for our federal appeals court to hear Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump's appeal. Jack Smith is asking for the Supreme Court

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Speaker 4: to resolve the case in its current term, which runs

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Speaker 4: through June. So why today he did it today? Because

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Speaker 4: time's a wasting it. Trial is scheduled to start March

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Speaker 4: the fourth. It cannot been as long as Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: is appealing this issue of immunity, So Jack Smith needs

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Speaker 4: this resolved as quickly as possible.

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Speaker 3: Now, the filing mark's first time the Supreme Court has

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Speaker 3: been asked to intervene in one of the cases pending

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Speaker 3: against Trump. Hunter Biden's attorneys are saying today that the

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Speaker 3: gun and tax charges against him are invalid. Well, Congressional

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Speaker 3: Republicans and Democrats mud rustle over aid to Israel and Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: Ukrainian President Vladimer Zelenski's in the US today to make

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Speaker 3: his case.

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Speaker 5: Rossa's war on Ukraine isn't just about isn't just about

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Speaker 5: some old pheaciant dictatorship trying to settle scores real or imagine.

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Speaker 3: And US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says aid for Ukraine

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Speaker 3: and for NATO is imperative.

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Speaker 4: And we are determined to show the world that America

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Speaker 4: will not flinch in our defense of freedom.

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Speaker 3: Now, the two spoke at the National Offense University in Washington.

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Speaker 3: Russian opposition leader Aleski Nelvanni has missed a court appearance today.

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Speaker 3: It is raising alarms because his family says it hasn't

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Speaker 3: heard from him for five days. US National Security Council

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Speaker 3: spokesman John Kirby says concern too for the US.

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Speaker 2: We concerned about these reports that he's now being on

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Speaker 2: for allegedly a week, and neither his representatives or his

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Speaker 2: family know where he is. He should be released immediately.

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Speaker 3: Today's apparent's supposed to be video, but when they dialed

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Speaker 3: it up, the screen was dark. Israeli offensive into Gaza's intensified,

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Speaker 3: but it's refusing to cease fire still. Farmer is rarely

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Speaker 3: Ambassador of the US. Michael Oran on Bloomberg's sound On

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Speaker 3: says he feels there will be a ceasefire at some point.

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Speaker 6: And this is just a gut feeling that the negotiations

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Speaker 6: will start soon as Israel's military news continues to close

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Speaker 6: around hamas leadership, and they will once again sue to

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Speaker 6: negotiate to gain time. Remember, Hamas wants that cease fire.

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Speaker 6: That's the most important thing. Hamas can get Bessie's firing survival.

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Speaker 6: It means Thomas wins, Israel loses.

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Speaker 3: He says, Amas may not have any bargaining power because

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Speaker 3: of the condition of the hostages. The pregnant Texas woman

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Speaker 3: who sought court permission for an abortion under extraordinary health

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Speaker 3: circumstances will apparently not wait for Texas. Her attorneys say

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Speaker 3: that she has left the state, saying her health and

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Speaker 3: her futures on the line. They say she's been in

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Speaker 3: and out of emergency rooms and can't wait any longer.

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Speaker 3: Global News twenty four hours a day and whatever you

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Speaker 3: wanted with Bloomberg News Now in San Francisco, I met

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Speaker 3: Baxter and this is Bloomberg ar Brian.

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Speaker 2: Ed thanks very much. Well, let's get a look now

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Speaker 2: at the top business and economic news stories of the hour.

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Speaker 2: Central banks are in focus this week, with the FED,

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Speaker 2: the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all

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Speaker 2: holding policy meetings, and next week we'll be hearing from

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Speaker 2: the Bank of Japan. The BOJ is likely to keep

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Speaker 2: its monetary stimulus settings unchanged. BOJ officials are said to

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Speaker 2: see little need to rush into scrapping what is the

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Speaker 2: world's last negative interest rate this month, and that's despite

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Speaker 2: recent market speculation that the negative rate may be scrapped

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Speaker 2: as soon as the December meeting, which to old officials

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Speaker 2: have yet to see enough evidence, though, of wage growth

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Speaker 2: that would support sustainable inflation, and BOJ officials view the

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Speaker 2: potential cost of waiting for more information as not very high. Well.

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Speaker 1: China is said to have started the annuals Central Economic

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Speaker 1: Work Conference. The aim here is to discuss China's growth

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Speaker 1: targets for the new year. We have more from Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: sivon men in Hong Kong.

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Speaker 7: The high profile meeting is usually closely watched by market

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Speaker 7: participants on how China handles monetary, fiscal, and various industrial policies.

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Speaker 7: Neither the Chinese government nor state run media has announced

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Speaker 7: the start of the conference, but reports say that two

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Speaker 7: day meeting will conclude today. The meeting follows top leaders

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Speaker 7: pledging to strengthen fiscal support at a pull up Bureau

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Speaker 7: meeting on front. The leaders also emphasize the importance of

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Speaker 7: economic progress. Expectations are high that China will set a

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Speaker 7: new growth target similar to this year's goal of about

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Speaker 7: five percent. In Hong Kong, I'm von Mann Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: Meantime, Chinese President Shi Jinping is expected to visit Vietnam

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Speaker 2: today for the first time in six years. Bloomberg's Joan

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Speaker 2: Wong has.

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Speaker 8: More president she is looking to upgrade relations with Vietnam

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Speaker 8: and counter US influence. The trip comes just three months

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Speaker 8: after US President Joe Biden visited. On that trip, Biden

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Speaker 8: forged agreements with Hanoi on everything from semiconductors to security.

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Speaker 8: For China's part, is moving to provide funding to upgrade

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Speaker 8: railway lines in the country. These are arteries considered crucial

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Speaker 8: for Vietnam's exports. The fans and maritime issues are also

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Speaker 8: expected to be discussed. For some time, Vietnam has been

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Speaker 8: worried that China is moving to a certain more control

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Speaker 8: in the South China Sea. In Hong Kong, Join Wang Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: Radio State Side Commerce Secretary Gina Romundo is vowing this

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Speaker 1: a very strong action on this new advanced semiconductor from Huawei.

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Speaker 1: Romando calling this breakthrough chip deeply concerning. We have more

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Speaker 1: from Bloomberg's Erica Hirshkowitz.

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Speaker 9: When asked how the Commerce Department would respond to a

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Speaker 9: recent chip making breakthrough in China, Romando said the US

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Speaker 9: would take the strongest possible action to protect its national security.

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Speaker 9: In an interview with Bloomberg News, Romando said every time

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Speaker 9: they see something that's concerning, they investigated vigorously. Romando wouldn't

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Speaker 9: confirm a formal investigation is underway into Huawei Technologies and

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Speaker 9: its chip making partner, Semiconductor Manufacturing International, even though her

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Speaker 9: department's Bureau of Industry and Security has said it's probing

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Speaker 9: the purported seven nanimeter chip and a smartphone that Huawei

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Speaker 9: debuted in late August. I'm Erica Herskowitz Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Separately, Romando told Bloomberg News the US is looking into

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Speaker 1: specifics of three new artificial intelligence accelerators made by Nvidia.

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Speaker 1: The company is developing those chips for the market in China.

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Speaker 1: Earlier this month, UA did vow to restrict any new

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Speaker 1: chips that gives China capabilities and artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 2: Brian Oracle reported second quarters sales that increased five percent

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Speaker 2: to twelve point nine billion dollars that missed analyst estimates

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Speaker 2: of thirteen point one billion, and it comes after a

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Speaker 2: second consecutive quarter of slowing growth for Oracle's cloud unit.

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Speaker 2: Oracle is known for its database software. It has been

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Speaker 2: focusing lately on expanding its cloud business, but Bloomberg's arag

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Speaker 2: Rana says it may take some time to catch up

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Speaker 2: with the world's biggest cloud providers.

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Speaker 10: Over time, I think they will have a cloud offering,

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Speaker 10: or they will have a cloud revenue that is going

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Speaker 10: to be much bigger than this. But I don't think

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Speaker 10: they're going to catch up to either Amazon or Microsoft

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Speaker 10: anytime in the near term. In fact, I don't think

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Speaker 10: that's going to be possible, just because of the two

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Speaker 10: different businesses these guys are right.

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Speaker 2: And that's Bloomberg's an rug Rana.

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Speaker 1: Doug Goldman Sachs is reshuffling its asset management arm the

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Speaker 1: story from Bloomberg's and Kate's.

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Speaker 11: Goldman is moving around senior executives and it's one hundred

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Speaker 11: and ten billion dollar private credit unit as it seeks

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Speaker 11: to double the size of the business in the medium term.

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Speaker 11: Goldman has long lead Wall Street rivals like JP Morgan, Chase,

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Speaker 11: Barkley's and City Group and the growing one point six

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Speaker 11: trillion dollar market, and is rare for maintaining a sizeable

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Speaker 11: private credit division that dates back to before the two

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Speaker 11: thousand and eight financial crisis. The latest changes come as

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Speaker 11: Goldman's rival scramble to respond to the rise of a

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Speaker 11: new asset class that competes directly with their leverage finance

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Speaker 11: business in Washington and Kate's Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 2: I'm Brand Curtis along with Paul Allen, and we are

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Speaker 2: visiting with William Lee now on the program, chief economist

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Speaker 2: at the Milken Institute, to take a look at what

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Speaker 2: we can expect from the Fed this week. Bill, thanks

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Speaker 2: very much for joining us. We're getting pretty close to

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Speaker 2: the last mile kind of discussions and whether or not

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Speaker 2: disinflation will continue to grind its way through or whether

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Speaker 2: we might find it pretty sticky. Do you see it?

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Speaker 12: Well, the markets are pretty confused about what the Fed

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Speaker 12: really wants to do, right. I mean, in some ways,

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Speaker 12: the market is absolutely certain that they're going to be

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Speaker 12: rate cuts and it's a matter of when and how many.

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Speaker 12: And yet Share Powell has been and every other member

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Speaker 12: of the INFLAC has told us, no, we're going to

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Speaker 12: be very data dependent and if the data continue to improve,

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Speaker 12: then we will consider, uh keeping the stance of policy

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Speaker 12: tight enough to make sure that that inflation improves sufficiently

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Speaker 12: and and and long enough to get us into the

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Speaker 12: trajectory that will where conftantly believed that it's two percent

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Speaker 12: and the markets will say, hey, we're there. And so

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Speaker 12: that that conflict is is something that I think is

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Speaker 12: causing bond markets to be very unsettled. The volatility and

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Speaker 12: bond markets now has been at its highest level in almost,

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Speaker 12: you know, in years, and I think one of the

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Speaker 12: things that we're trying to sort out is what is

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Speaker 12: the FED going to do? And it doesn't help that

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Speaker 12: Chap Powell has been playing a game of Russian Roulette

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Speaker 12: with this. It depends on the data. You know, I

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Speaker 12: will shoot the bullet up and maybe my chamber's loaded,

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Speaker 12: maybe it's not, but I'll shoot when I see the

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Speaker 12: data require me to shoot, and I won't shoot unless

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Speaker 12: I'm provoked to shoot. That's not a good framework that

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Speaker 12: colms bond markets well.

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Speaker 13: In terms of the data, you know, you mentioned branded

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Speaker 13: to the CPI we're expecting from my Vamba cole CPI

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Speaker 13: is seen aging up a third of one percent, So

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Speaker 13: the data suggests it's going to be a while before

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Speaker 13: we see those right cuts exactly.

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Speaker 12: And I think one of the other things that the

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Speaker 12: FET is going to have to keep an eye on

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Speaker 12: is what's happening to the real economy. Retail sales will

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Speaker 12: also be coming out next week, and I think one

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Speaker 12: of the things that we're concerned about is whether the

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Speaker 12: consumer has sufficient momentum to keep going, or whether the

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Speaker 12: differences in income. The rich really seem to have a

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Speaker 12: lot of savings and are propelling the economy forward, but

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Speaker 12: the people who are living paycheck to paycheck are having

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Speaker 12: much more difficulties to go into more debt. Credit card

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Speaker 12: debts are going up, the loans are being you know,

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Speaker 12: defaulted on that car loans. So we're seeing lots of

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Speaker 12: tensions there and it may well be that the economy

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Speaker 12: is not as strong as the FED might think it is.

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Speaker 2: Bill, you mentioned the volatility in the bond market. In

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Speaker 2: terms of the stock market. If we do get a

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Speaker 2: kind of Fed repricing of rate cuts this week, especially

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Speaker 2: in what we get from the SEP, do you expect

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Speaker 2: markets to react badly to that or will it be

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Speaker 2: more like, well, we see it coming, it's just not

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Speaker 2: here yet.

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Speaker 12: I think that's your your EPSA right there. We see

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Speaker 12: it coming, and right now the equity markets are much

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Speaker 12: more focused on profits and whether or not the profit

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Speaker 12: margins will be maintained or whether we could have sufficiently

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Speaker 12: large downturn that profits will be affected. I think the

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Speaker 12: growth stocks, the nifty seven stocks that are propelling the

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Speaker 12: economy right now. They have gotten a big boost by

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Speaker 12: lowering of interest rates, But now it really is a

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Speaker 12: question of profits, and for copanies like Nvidia, it's whether

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Speaker 12: the chip industry will the margins be maintaind cuts into

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Speaker 12: their profit margins or the China markets start to affect them.

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Speaker 12: Those are the main concerns I think that are in

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Speaker 12: the equity markets right now, whereas the interest rate boost

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Speaker 12: has pretty much been discounted.

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Speaker 13: Yeah, we haven't really seen any waves of corporate bankruptcies

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Speaker 13: in this era of high rights. Do you see any

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Speaker 13: corporations that are really desperate and need a right cut

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Speaker 13: on the horizon or the balance sheets looking pretty good.

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Speaker 12: That's what makes this expansion a little bit unusual because

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Speaker 12: companies were very smart to take advantage of the low

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Speaker 12: rates and locked in a lot of financing so that

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Speaker 12: it'll be a while before companies will need to roll

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Speaker 12: over and refinance their debt. One thing where it's hurt

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Speaker 12: the corporate sector is it's cut back on the level

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Speaker 12: of investments. When interest rates are very low, every cat

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Speaker 12: and dog investment looks good. So there are a lot

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Speaker 12: of corporate investments going on. But when interest rates are

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Speaker 12: highlight this, companies are very careful to make sure that

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Speaker 12: the projects they invest in are going to pay off.

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Speaker 12: That case, there's some good to come out of this,

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Speaker 12: because the quality of investment that's being put in place

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Speaker 12: is going to be much higher, but the amount of

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Speaker 12: investment is much less, and that means that the amount

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Speaker 12: of momentum the economy has going forward is much less

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Speaker 12: and will depend much more on consumers and our exports.

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Speaker 2: I'm curious whether or not, you know, longer term, say

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Speaker 2: into twenty twenty five, you feel as though this level

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Speaker 2: of growth can be maintained, or whether or not we

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Speaker 2: really hit some bumps in twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 12: Oh, that's the question on everyone's mind, every question I

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Speaker 12: get when we talk out when we go beyond the

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Speaker 12: next few months, Every corporate CEO and portfolio managers asking

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Speaker 12: the question, what's the new sustainable level of growth for

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Speaker 12: the US economy? Is the productivity enhancement that's coming from

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Speaker 12: AI and all this technology and all this investment that

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Speaker 12: we're doing going to kick in and will kick in

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Speaker 12: sufficiently to keep our economy going at a pace of

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Speaker 12: better than two percent. And I think many people feel

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Speaker 12: it that's a hope and of prayer because so far

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Speaker 12: a lot of this AI is still vaporware. I mean, people,

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Speaker 12: there's a lot of promise, but the actual implementation of

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Speaker 12: this stuff has really not enhanced productivity. One thing that

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Speaker 12: has enhanced productivity, which I've really been stunned by and

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Speaker 12: people don't talk about enough, are how clever people have.

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Speaker 12: Businesses have change the business models. Ghost kitchens have now

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Speaker 12: made the restaurant industry very profitable. Deliveries have taken over,

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Speaker 12: and the restaurants that do deliveries have done very well.

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Speaker 12: Whereas the old middle of the road kind of restaurant

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Speaker 12: where you just go and have a family dinner, those

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Speaker 12: are going out of business.

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