WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: David Kelly & Lori Calvasina

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.960
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:12.240 --> 0:00:16.920
<v Speaker 2>The single best idea it's an uneventful Monday before Christmas,

0:00:17.280 --> 0:00:21.400
<v Speaker 2>the holiday season. Not it was really really something that

0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:24.800
<v Speaker 2>a huge news flow, of course paramount on Netflix. Paul

0:00:24.840 --> 0:00:28.560
<v Speaker 2>Sween a huge hope there, but just all sorts of

0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:31.800
<v Speaker 2>other news flow out in Japan, we're really focusing on.

0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.160
<v Speaker 2>Look over the coming days weeks and frankly into January

0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:39.280
<v Speaker 2>for further discussion of the Pacific Rim. In Japan. It's

0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:43.800
<v Speaker 2>simple there prices down on debt and yields up. That

0:00:43.920 --> 0:00:47.199
<v Speaker 2>causes some real as David Kelly's aware of this. He

0:00:47.320 --> 0:00:51.600
<v Speaker 2>drives global investment strategy for all of JP. Morgan can't

0:00:51.640 --> 0:00:54.440
<v Speaker 2>say enough about his work. He's been debt on on

0:00:54.600 --> 0:00:58.680
<v Speaker 2>non farm payrolls that decline there in the monthly labor

0:00:58.720 --> 0:01:01.920
<v Speaker 2>statistics even with the government shut down. Here's David Kelly

0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:03.120
<v Speaker 2>forward on GDP.

0:01:03.800 --> 0:01:07.560
<v Speaker 1>I think if it continued into the first six months

0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:10.200
<v Speaker 1>of next year, then I think the FED would ease earlier.

0:01:10.200 --> 0:01:12.080
<v Speaker 1>But I think I think we'll see a little pick up,

0:01:12.080 --> 0:01:14.120
<v Speaker 1>as I said, because of income tax refunds. I think

0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:15.560
<v Speaker 1>we'll see a pickup and growth, and I think that

0:01:15.600 --> 0:01:21.200
<v Speaker 1>will stench the bleeding for for a while, but then

0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, maybe later next year we do get ray cuts.

0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:25.760
<v Speaker 1>But I want to make it clear, rain cuts won't

0:01:25.760 --> 0:01:28.880
<v Speaker 1>fix anything here. The problem, the problems that this economy faces,

0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:31.839
<v Speaker 1>have got nothing to do with interest rates or interest

0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:35.240
<v Speaker 1>rates being too high anyway. So yes, it may force

0:01:35.280 --> 0:01:38.520
<v Speaker 1>the Federal Reserve into cutting more aggressively later next year

0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:40.720
<v Speaker 1>if the eclumn, if we don't sort of put some

0:01:40.760 --> 0:01:43.160
<v Speaker 1>more artificial stimulus into the economy, which we may well do.

0:01:43.520 --> 0:01:46.559
<v Speaker 2>Classic David Kelly, I can't say enough how I agree

0:01:46.600 --> 0:01:50.120
<v Speaker 2>with him. The media focus on rates, and you've heard

0:01:50.200 --> 0:01:54.280
<v Speaker 2>me say this is a parlor game, is borderline comical.

0:01:54.400 --> 0:01:59.160
<v Speaker 2>I understand it has ramifications for those trading and bedding

0:01:59.800 --> 0:02:03.440
<v Speaker 2>on the future of FED decisions on the future of

0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:07.600
<v Speaker 2>the American economy. But in terms of the mandate of

0:02:07.720 --> 0:02:11.679
<v Speaker 2>well meaning people, whatever the politics in Washington, how much

0:02:11.760 --> 0:02:14.839
<v Speaker 2>is an interest rates strategy really affected. I go back

0:02:14.880 --> 0:02:16.840
<v Speaker 2>to what I went back and forth with David ger

0:02:16.960 --> 0:02:19.600
<v Speaker 2>on this today as he spoke to Stephen Myron with

0:02:19.639 --> 0:02:22.639
<v Speaker 2>Anne Marie Horden, and I said to David, I said,

0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:27.160
<v Speaker 2>the financialization of America tells me that any kind of

0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:31.160
<v Speaker 2>conducive rate strategy is just fuel for the haves, and

0:02:31.240 --> 0:02:32.720
<v Speaker 2>I stand with that. And of course we see the

0:02:32.760 --> 0:02:38.560
<v Speaker 2>markets today buoyant, to say the least. Lori Kelvisina in today,

0:02:38.760 --> 0:02:43.200
<v Speaker 2>Lori Kelvisina here on the dynamic between large companies and

0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:44.840
<v Speaker 2>less large it.

0:02:44.800 --> 0:02:48.239
<v Speaker 3>Really started in September, right after back to school. AI

0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:50.960
<v Speaker 3>jitters from people who were real believers in the trade

0:02:50.960 --> 0:02:53.280
<v Speaker 3>and had been there but had sticker shock on valuation.

0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:56.239
<v Speaker 3>You know, I think I heard less about private credit

0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:58.760
<v Speaker 3>concerns in December than I did earlier in the fall.

0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:00.640
<v Speaker 3>That I think that's sort of the back of people's

0:03:00.680 --> 0:03:03.600
<v Speaker 3>minds as well. And frankly, this rally we had off

0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.000
<v Speaker 3>of the April lows was faster and more powerful than

0:03:07.040 --> 0:03:09.480
<v Speaker 3>any growth scare bottom that we've seen in the post

0:03:09.520 --> 0:03:10.560
<v Speaker 3>financial crisis era.

0:03:11.040 --> 0:03:14.080
<v Speaker 2>Lri Covesina optimistic. I do want to make one note,

0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:18.920
<v Speaker 2>Janie taken up by Nelson Peltz's shop Treon today the

0:03:18.919 --> 0:03:22.880
<v Speaker 2>active manager out of Denver, Janis Henderson, and I just

0:03:23.000 --> 0:03:26.400
<v Speaker 2>have to stay. Telly Lagier was in today with Wealth

0:03:26.400 --> 0:03:32.040
<v Speaker 2>Capital and his optimism here of up fifteen percent, sixteen

0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:35.200
<v Speaker 2>percent or even more for next year. Just Tampa's shelf

0:03:35.720 --> 0:03:42.200
<v Speaker 2>extraordinary optimism with so many people out there relatively scared stiff.

0:03:42.640 --> 0:03:46.880
<v Speaker 2>On podcasts, we're at Appleworth, Spotify and YouTube. Podcasts at

0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:52.560
<v Speaker 2>single best idea