Speaker 1: Hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I
Speaker 1: am your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Dan Harris eighty. It is time talk about our best
Speaker 1: bets four week seven, and here to do that with
Speaker 1: me is Ian McMillan over at bet sided. Find him
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Ian mac betts. That's I A I
Speaker 1: m Ian. Thanks for popping on the show again. How
Speaker 1: are you.
Speaker 2: I'm doing well man, Thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great to have you now. I do want
Speaker 1: to ask because I know the last time you were on,
Speaker 1: which was for the Early look aheadlines, you had mentioned
Speaker 1: that you are betting every single NFL game this year.
Speaker 1: I want to know how that's going for you.
Speaker 2: So far, it's going way better than I ever could
Speaker 2: have imagined. To be completely honest, I never would have
Speaker 2: expected I got off to this heart of a star.
Speaker 2: But I'm sixty three and thirty one for up twenty
Speaker 2: nine point nine to two units. So oh, my best
Speaker 2: start I've ever had in any betting, you know, betting,
Speaker 2: any sport ever. So it's definitely not going to keep up.
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna hit it close to seventy percent all season,
Speaker 2: but I'll enjoy wild lasts.
Speaker 1: All right, well, hopefully it doesn't end until after this week.
Speaker 1: At least you can get out some good ad. Guys here,
Speaker 1: are you just betting spreads, by the way, or are
Speaker 1: you betting totals or anything else?
Speaker 2: Spreads? Totals and at least one money line underdog, well,
Speaker 2: which I've actually done. I think I'm like eight and
Speaker 2: one with my money line underdog picks, so that those
Speaker 2: that helps quite a bit when you're hitting at that.
Speaker 1: Rate with those, yeah, no doubt. All right, well, hopefully
Speaker 1: you have a money line underdog for us today. But
Speaker 1: let's get into it again. This is our three best
Speaker 1: bets for the weekend Spreads, totals or money lines, is
Speaker 1: Ian said. And then we're just going to quickly run
Speaker 1: through any of the games that we didn't touch on.
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Speaker 1: the entries and I also get a lot of good stuff,
Speaker 1: including a props video, my weekly video that I just
Speaker 1: dropped right before, which should probably come out shortly after
Speaker 1: you listen to this podcast. All right, before we get
Speaker 1: into Ian's Unstoppable picks, I suppose let's very briefly recap
Speaker 1: last week. Our guest Benny Richardi went two and one.
Speaker 1: He hit on the Bengals three and a half to
Speaker 1: the Lions, and he hitting the Cowboys laying three and
Speaker 1: a half to the Patriots, even though I'm going to
Speaker 1: say that I still think that that was obviously the
Speaker 1: wrong side and I was leaning the other way. He
Speaker 1: did miss though, on the Chiefs and the Washington football
Speaker 1: team over fifty four and a half. I also went
Speaker 1: to in one another positive day, hitting on the Bengals
Speaker 1: and Lions under forty seven and a half, the Vikings
Speaker 1: laying one and a half to the Panthers. I did
Speaker 1: miss on my favorite bet of the week, admittedly, which
Speaker 1: was the Browns laying three to the Cardinals. I will
Speaker 1: say that now puts me It is not quite an
Speaker 1: Ian McMillan level, but it puts me at twelve and
Speaker 1: four so far on this podcast, five consecutive winning weeks.
Speaker 1: So we've got a lot of things going in our
Speaker 1: favorite Ian. Let's hope that we can keep going. It
Speaker 1: is a tougher slate obviously, with all the bull with
Speaker 1: all the buys. Pardon me, but remember're going to be
Speaker 1: using bettingpros dot Com lines. I'll note when there are
Speaker 1: differences and everything like that. You can use the app.
Speaker 1: By the way, the betting pros app download Make your picks.
Speaker 1: Follow along in the leaderboard. Ian, I've talked enough, Go ahead,
Speaker 1: what's your first pick of the week.
Speaker 2: So my first pick of the week here? Does it
Speaker 2: matter what we start with? Total reprea?
Speaker 1: Does it? You get to start with whatever you want?
Speaker 2: Okay, I'm gonna give I'm gonna I'm gonna start out hot.
Speaker 2: Then I'm gonna give out my most aggressive pick. I
Speaker 2: would recommend most people probably take the spread here, take
Speaker 2: the points. But I mentioned I've been doing well with
Speaker 2: my money line underdog picks. I got a little bit
Speaker 2: of a heat check this week. I'm tossing up a
Speaker 2: tossing up a shot from mid court here from the logo.
Speaker 2: Love this pick. Bengals plus two to twenty five against
Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens. I'm taking them on the money line.
Speaker 2: You can get them what plus six plus six and
Speaker 2: a half right now? If you want to be a
Speaker 2: little bit more conservative, and I would not blame you,
Speaker 2: but first of all, I think this is a big
Speaker 2: sell high spot on the Ravens. I mean, you know this,
Speaker 2: betting on sports, especially the NFL, is a little bit
Speaker 2: like kind of the stock market. You want to buy
Speaker 2: low on some teams, at some point you want to
Speaker 2: sell high on some other teams. I think this is
Speaker 2: a big sell high spot on the Ravens. After that
Speaker 2: big comeback two weeks ago against the Colts on Monday
Speaker 2: Night Football, big win last week against the Chargers, who
Speaker 2: everyone's been praising lately, but don't forget like a few
Speaker 2: weeks ago they needed a sixty six aired field goal
Speaker 2: to beat the Detroit Lions. So this team's not unbeatable.
Speaker 2: And the Bengals have actually impressed me so far the season,
Speaker 2: especially their defense second in the NFL and opponent yards
Speaker 2: per play and seventh in opponent yards per carry, And
Speaker 2: we know that's huge. If you want to beat the Ravens,
Speaker 2: you have to be able to stop the run, and
Speaker 2: the Bengals run defense has been pretty solid this year.
Speaker 2: Ravens defense hasn't been as good as people expected, especially
Speaker 2: in their secondary twenty first and opponent yards per past tempt.
Speaker 2: I expect Joe Burrow to have a big day. So
Speaker 2: my heat check game, my money line upset pick Bengals
Speaker 2: plus two twenty fives.
Speaker 1: The Ravens, well, I think, like I'm not gonna take
Speaker 1: it with you Okay, I'm gonna let you be as
Speaker 1: hot as impossilic to kiss this up now. You obviously
Speaker 1: like the six and a half, as you mentioned, which
Speaker 1: is where it is, by the way, consensus right now,
Speaker 1: six and a half. I'm a little worried just about
Speaker 1: how good the Ravens are at home. They're just this
Speaker 1: absolutely dominant on the road, like obviously the odds wouldn't
Speaker 1: be as good, of course, but I do think that
Speaker 1: the Bengals are a much much better team than I
Speaker 1: still think even the public gives them credit for their defense.
Speaker 1: Has really surprised me with how well they've played. Burrow again,
Speaker 1: I expected to struggle early on in the season because
Speaker 1: I thought figured, you know, coming back from the injury,
Speaker 1: both physically and mentally, he would be a little slow,
Speaker 1: but he has been great. Jamar Chase has been elite
Speaker 1: out there, and the Ravens do have holes. I think
Speaker 1: I might be a little gun shy just because of
Speaker 1: I was actually on the Chargers last week against them,
Speaker 1: and they just absolutely destroyed them. So you realistically you
Speaker 1: think the Bengals are gonna walk out of here winners.
Speaker 2: I like Bengals plus six and a half. Obviously a
Speaker 2: lot better if you just want to take a bet
Speaker 2: that's gonna win. I think I Bengals and the points
Speaker 2: is a great bet. But like I said, I've been
Speaker 2: hitting my money line underdog picks this so far this year.
Speaker 2: It's a heat check. It's a little bit like, yeah
Speaker 2: what I am, But I mean divisional game as well.
Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be closed. I think the Bengals
Speaker 2: can win this. Also two weeks when the Bengals lost
Speaker 2: to the Packers in overtime, I still walked away like
Speaker 2: more impressed with the Bengals even though they lost than
Speaker 2: what I was before that game.
Speaker 1: So a hundred and they obviously could have easily won
Speaker 1: that game, of course, given all the field goal issues
Speaker 1: and everything like that. But I do think that the
Speaker 1: divisional game aspect of it does weigh certainly in your
Speaker 1: favorite because every divisional game just scares the crap out
Speaker 1: of you because you just have no idea. The teams
Speaker 1: know each other well. Obviously, we know exactly what Baltimore
Speaker 1: is going to do. It's really just about whether or
Speaker 1: not they can start them. Okay, I'm going to take
Speaker 1: a pick that I really I don't like taking those
Speaker 1: type of pick okay, so feel free. I want to
Speaker 1: know which side you're on. I'm taking a road favorite,
Speaker 1: which is don't love it. It's the Panthers lanth three
Speaker 1: to the Giants. For me, there are just a lot
Speaker 1: of things working against the Giants in this game. First Off,
Speaker 1: they're just generally speaking terrible at home own three this year,
Speaker 1: nine and twenty six at Medlife since twenty seventeen. Nobody
Speaker 1: is showing up to these games. The fans when they do,
Speaker 1: they're pretty much just booing. So it's a road game
Speaker 1: for Carolina because they're away from home, but it's not
Speaker 1: exactly like they're walking into any sort of hostile environment. Second,
Speaker 1: the Giants offensive line is really in terrible shape. They
Speaker 1: actually played pretty well early on the season, better than
Speaker 1: I expected them to play, but you saw what happened
Speaker 1: against the Rams. A lot of that is Andrew Thomas,
Speaker 1: who also was one of the key cogs and playing
Speaker 1: better than I expected him to play, but he is
Speaker 1: now out for this game. And on ir and again,
Speaker 1: it's it's not just the quality of their alignment at
Speaker 1: this point, it's the consistency in the fact that they're
Speaker 1: constantly shuffling guys in and out because they're getting nicked
Speaker 1: up and they're moving guys from one position to another.
Speaker 1: It's really difficult to play with an offensive line, and
Speaker 1: that's huge for someone like Daniel Jones, who's just much
Speaker 1: worse when he is pressured. Fifty four percent completion percentage
Speaker 1: when he's under pressure. And the Panthers, even on a
Speaker 1: bad day, get pressure like their fourth and pressure. Right
Speaker 1: they're one of the better teams there. So against this
Speaker 1: offensive line with all, by the way, the injuries the
Speaker 1: playmakers offensively, like I don't expect seko On Barkley, I
Speaker 1: don't expect Darius Tony, and I don't expect Kenni Galladay
Speaker 1: to play at this point. So they're really down a
Speaker 1: lot of AMMO here on offense. So I think they're
Speaker 1: going to struggle to score. And the Panthers, by the way,
Speaker 1: have a good defense. I know they had the JC
Speaker 1: Horn injury. Keith Taylor has subbed in pretty well, so
Speaker 1: J Henderson is getting healthier. I don't think Stefan Gilmore
Speaker 1: is gonna be up for this game, but regardless, they
Speaker 1: are playing pretty well defensively anyway, and offensively. I didn't
Speaker 1: like the spot for them last week again I said
Speaker 1: I took the Vikings Ian because of the pressure. That's
Speaker 1: a big thing. I think with Sam Darnold, which I
Speaker 1: know very well having watched him for years, that is
Speaker 1: not where the Giants shine. The Giants do not get
Speaker 1: a ton of pressure. So I think that's pretty good
Speaker 1: as to what we're gonna see. And as well, I
Speaker 1: think you heard them talk about the fact that they're
Speaker 1: gonna run the ball here a little more. Take some
Speaker 1: pressure off Donald. That is good. The Giants are twenty
Speaker 1: seventh in DVA against the run. This game just kind
Speaker 1: of sets up well for me for the Panthers. They
Speaker 1: need to win. They don't have to take chances to
Speaker 1: get it. You gotta banged up Giants team in dis array.
Speaker 1: So seventy percent ian Panthers laying three on the road
Speaker 1: to the Giants, tell me what you're thinking.
Speaker 2: Yeah, to be honest, out of all the games this week,
Speaker 2: the Giants Panthers game is the one game where, like
Speaker 2: I wish I wasn't betting on every single NFL game,
Speaker 2: because really pass on this game. I think this is
Speaker 2: the toughest game, toughest game on the board this week
Speaker 2: in my opinion, and any what concerns me is number one,
Speaker 2: the injuries. But what concerns me with the Panthers when
Speaker 2: you look at their stats compared to the first three
Speaker 2: games compared to the last three games, just night and day. So, like,
Speaker 2: what version, in my opinion, like, what version of the
Speaker 2: Panthers team is for real? Are they more like the
Speaker 2: team they played like in the first three weeks or
Speaker 2: are they more like the team that we saw the
Speaker 2: last three weeks. Anytime that there was a toss up game,
Speaker 2: in my opinion, which I think this is, I end
Speaker 2: up just taking the team that's getting the points. So
Speaker 2: I am on the Giants. But like I said, I
Speaker 2: think it's it's my least favorite bet of the week.
Speaker 2: I cannot argue against someone who's on the Panthers. I
Speaker 2: went back and forth for a while trying to decide
Speaker 2: who to bet on in this game. But it's tough.
Speaker 2: But I mean, you made a couple of really good points.
Speaker 2: Giants eight twenty one and one against the spread their
Speaker 2: last thirty home games, We're just terrible, terrible, terrible. Daniel
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones is terrible at home compared to on the road,
Speaker 2: So those things are certainly going in the Panthers favor.
Speaker 2: So I am on the Giants, but I will not
Speaker 2: I will not argue too much against the Panthers pick.
Speaker 1: So what's funny is that I think that your point
Speaker 1: of like, well, which Panthers team are we going to see?
Speaker 1: I think you're going to see the version of the
Speaker 1: Panthers team that plays the crappy opponent, which is what
Speaker 1: we saw in the first three games. Now that the
Speaker 1: Saints weren't terrible, but the Saints aren't that good or
Speaker 1: anything like that. The Jets in Houston versus what you
Speaker 1: see in the next three games, which is Dallas Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: which their defense played fine. By the way, they easily
Speaker 1: could have won that game. But the Philadelphia defense is
Speaker 1: much stronger, and we'll talk about that maybe in a
Speaker 1: little bit. And I think people give them credit for
Speaker 1: and then Minnesota to me honestly, offensively, I think this
Speaker 1: is a game first of all, they have to win
Speaker 1: because they've got to get back on track number one.
Speaker 1: And I think the Giants them I think sometimes like
Speaker 1: I don't have a model. I admit, like I don't
Speaker 1: have a model that I plug in and I come
Speaker 1: up with the appropriate spread. I know a lot of
Speaker 1: you know, professional gamblerss and everything like that. But I
Speaker 1: think this is just a spot right now where there
Speaker 1: are some things of regardless of sort of how it
Speaker 1: might look on the service level, you just dig deep
Speaker 1: into this Giants team. They look broken right now, and
Speaker 1: whether it's the constant injuries or whatever it is, I mean,
Speaker 1: they're just absolutely devastated at this point. I don't think
Speaker 1: they really have at this point that the mental you know,
Speaker 1: I almost say mental wherewithal but just where they are
Speaker 1: right now to be able to come in here and
Speaker 1: put it against the team that is desperate for a win.
Speaker 1: And again, I think the fact that they're going to
Speaker 1: be able to be Panthers, to be able to take
Speaker 1: such like a non risky game, essentially a safe game
Speaker 1: plan here, I think leads of their favorite But that's fine.
Speaker 1: You don't even want to bet it. You did have
Speaker 1: to bet it, and you bet against me. So this
Speaker 1: is where the irresistible force meets the immovable object with
Speaker 1: this one. All right, get to your next game? What
Speaker 1: do you want?
Speaker 2: All right? So I'll go I'll go my total, my
Speaker 2: favorite total for the week here and I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: Jets Patriots under forty two and a half is what
Speaker 2: I got to that I think this is just a spot.
Speaker 2: You can't overthink it. They already played once this season.
Speaker 2: I took the under in that game and finished with
Speaker 2: a total of thirty one points. Score of that game.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's two bad offenses and two good defenses.
Speaker 2: So yards per play Patriots are twenty third, Jets are
Speaker 2: thirty first, red zone offense Patriots thirtieth, Jets twenty eighth,
Speaker 2: points per game Patriots twenty fourth, Jets dead last. And
Speaker 2: then the defensive side of those stats, Patriots thirteenth, fifth
Speaker 2: and ninth, Jets ninth, second and eighteenth. Interesting fact, they're
Speaker 2: about the Jets second and red zone defense so far
Speaker 2: this NFL season, which I did not expect before looking
Speaker 2: into those numbers. Yeah, and obviously red zone defense is huge.
Speaker 2: If we're betting on an under, you want those drives
Speaker 2: to end in field goals, not in touchdowns. So fifth
Speaker 2: and second in red zone defense makes me quite a
Speaker 2: bit more confident. Also, Bill Belichick has been one of
Speaker 2: the most conservative coaches in the NFL so far the
Speaker 2: season with his play calling. He's not taking a whole
Speaker 2: lot of shots downfield, not going forward on fourth down,
Speaker 2: basically whatsoever the Jets offense has has I apologize because
Speaker 2: I know you're a jew. Non existing Yeah, I got
Speaker 2: just non existing against decent defenses so far the season. So,
Speaker 2: like I said first meeting in in thirty one points,
Speaker 2: it's a bit of a low total forty two and
Speaker 2: a half, which does scare me a little bit. Sure,
Speaker 2: I think when you look at the numbers, I think
Speaker 2: it's the only play you can make in this game.
Speaker 1: Ah, that's the correct pick. And I would have taken
Speaker 1: it as well if not for you, as I look
Speaker 1: the way we've worked since the first game, where I
Speaker 1: felt like I got the short end of the stick
Speaker 1: because I didn't get Seawan's picks the first week pardon me,
Speaker 1: where I didn't get Shawn's picks and events and he
Speaker 1: picked my favorite game of the week, and I would
Speaker 1: sort of like, all right, I'll scramble and pick another one.
Speaker 1: I now get our guests picks in advance, just so
Speaker 1: I can know exactly what they are. And this I
Speaker 1: immediately emailed back Ian and I was like, Ah, that
Speaker 1: was definitely a pick I was eyeing as well. Yes,
Speaker 1: all the reasons that you said, I think this is
Speaker 1: absolutely a game that is just going to lean heavily
Speaker 1: towards the ender. It again, there are a lot of
Speaker 1: these load totals, and I think better first of all, better'
Speaker 1: is like overs anyway, like casual betters, because you want
Speaker 1: to root for something then again something. And I think
Speaker 1: these low totals generally scare betters off regardless. But I
Speaker 1: really think there are a lot of teams that you
Speaker 1: can go. I mean again, I picked the Broncos under
Speaker 1: for the first like three or four weeks. I think
Speaker 1: that's been a good spot generally speaking. I have it
Speaker 1: as well tonight so people will know when they listen.
Speaker 1: So I hope not not in the under. I've teased
Speaker 1: the under up. Just overitess, Okay, I am going to
Speaker 1: stick with your least favorite game. Because you went with
Speaker 1: the over under, I will also go with an over under.
Speaker 1: I will stick in this Panthers Giants game, which is
Speaker 1: very funny to me because it's the game. You're like, man,
Speaker 1: the one game out of the whole year that I
Speaker 1: need to get away from is this game. And I'm like, sweet,
Speaker 1: let me bet all my money on this game. And
Speaker 1: it is so the total right now, the consensus total
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com is forty three. There are some
Speaker 1: forty three and a half's out there. It's actually forty
Speaker 1: two and a half at my book DraftKings, but the
Speaker 1: consensus line is forty three. That's where most books are,
Speaker 1: and I am going the under, and it is basically
Speaker 1: for all the reasons I explained before. I think the
Speaker 1: Giants are going to really struggle to put up points here.
Speaker 1: You know, whatever they are able to do, you know, defensively,
Speaker 1: we'll talk about that in the second. Offensively, it's just
Speaker 1: very difficult to see. I think for this to go over,
Speaker 1: you're going to need some sort of defensive score here
Speaker 1: from the Panthers are something flukey, which again always the
Speaker 1: worry when you have this high low of total and everything.
Speaker 1: But I do think again with their offensive line injuries,
Speaker 1: with how few playmakers they have, with how bad Daniel
Speaker 1: Jones plays at home generally speaking, with how Baddie is
Speaker 1: especially under pressure, it just really strikes me as a
Speaker 1: game that they're not going to put up a lot
Speaker 1: of points. And conversely, again this is not me buying
Speaker 1: into Sam Darnold. They're buying into the Panthers' offense. What
Speaker 1: This is buying into is Matt rule, understanding that they
Speaker 1: have to win a game, and the way to do
Speaker 1: that is to run the ball a ton against a
Speaker 1: defense that struggles to stop the run. And when you
Speaker 1: do that, when you run the ball, the clock keeps running.
Speaker 1: They're in no hurry to really get here. So I
Speaker 1: think this is another game where the game script sets
Speaker 1: up two teams that are not going to put up
Speaker 1: a ton of points. One of the teams that probably
Speaker 1: will win is going to run the ball a ton,
Speaker 1: especially when I think they are leading in this game,
Speaker 1: as I expect them to win, and then they want
Speaker 1: to run out the clock. To me, it screams under
Speaker 1: as a low scoring game. So I imagine you are avoiding
Speaker 1: this game entirely regardless of the over under. But I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go under here for under forty three is the
Speaker 1: official play for my second pick.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was deciding between for this game. I was
Speaker 2: deciding between the Giants or the under. So I agree
Speaker 2: with you on the on the on the total play,
Speaker 2: I would not be going over in this game whatsoever,
Speaker 2: based on how these two teams have looked so far
Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, I'm not playing the under. But
Speaker 2: like I said, I was deciding between Giants and the
Speaker 2: points in the under. I ended up going with the
Speaker 2: Giants on this game.
Speaker 1: But I like the pick, all right, I will accept that.
Speaker 1: Then let's get to your third pick. Here is it
Speaker 1: a spread? Did you go one, two three with each
Speaker 1: the different one money line over under and then spread?
Speaker 2: Yep? So yeah, my favorite, my favorite favorite on the spread.
Speaker 2: So usually I like to avoid double digit spreads, but
Speaker 2: this is one that I actually really like this week,
Speaker 2: and it's the Bucks over the Bears. I go to
Speaker 2: the twelve and a half and it's just a bad
Speaker 2: stylistic matchup for the Bears offense and a fantastic style
Speaker 2: listic matchup for the Bucks offense. So fifty two point
Speaker 2: four percent of the offensive yards gained by the Bears
Speaker 2: so far this season have come on the ground, which
Speaker 2: is by far the most mount almost ten percent more
Speaker 2: than any other team. So they get like the majority
Speaker 2: of their yards come on the ground, and now they're
Speaker 2: facing a Bucks defense that is one of the best
Speaker 2: run defenses in the NFL, second in the NFL and
Speaker 2: opponent yards per carry at three point four and first
Speaker 2: in the NFL and opponent rushing yards per game, only
Speaker 2: allowing fifty four point eight rushing yards per game. So
Speaker 2: if they're limiting teams on the ground, I don't know
Speaker 2: how the Bears are gonna be able to move the
Speaker 2: ball against them. And then the opposite is true for
Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay offense. Seventy nine point nine to seven
Speaker 2: percent of the Bucks offensive yards come through the air.
Speaker 2: That's the most in the NFL. And now they're facing
Speaker 2: a Bears defense whose weakness is the secondary they rank
Speaker 2: nineteenth in the NFL and opponent yards per pass attempt. So,
Speaker 2: like I said, I don't love Benning double digit favorites
Speaker 2: in the NFL, but this is one that I'm going
Speaker 2: to back for sure because it's just styles make fights.
Speaker 2: That's something that's something I kind of hold truth in
Speaker 2: most sports, and I think this is just a terrible
Speaker 2: stylistic matchup for the Bears.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it is twelve and a half at the
Speaker 1: consensus line. It is twelve. Oddly enough, at my book DraftKings,
Speaker 1: I probably can't go there just because, like you, I
Speaker 1: just despise the giant spreads. If I did have to
Speaker 1: go one place, I think I would take the blocks.
Speaker 1: And I was a little ambivalent on it early in
Speaker 1: the year and early in the week. Pardon me, I
Speaker 1: think really the issue is for me, You're right, they're
Speaker 1: not going to be able to run the ball. By
Speaker 1: the way, Khalil Herbert is also banged up. We don't
Speaker 1: know whether or not Damian Williams is even coming off
Speaker 1: the COVID list. So even if they wanted to run
Speaker 1: the ball, who knows if they could. But you're going
Speaker 1: to have to have Justin Fields open it up and
Speaker 1: throw the ball here against a pretty decimated secondary that
Speaker 1: can certainly be beaten. But do we trust Justin Fields
Speaker 1: to be able to do that? Is the question. I mean,
Speaker 1: when you can beat a team one way and the
Speaker 1: person who's in charge of beating them that way has
Speaker 1: not impressed the entire season, it is difficult to see
Speaker 1: them covering this spread. Now we do. Antony Brown, I
Speaker 1: think this practice again today, so we'll see whether or
Speaker 1: not he plays. But again, the Bucks are off the
Speaker 1: Mini bi right because you know, they played on Thursday,
Speaker 1: so they have a little extra time to prepare. So
Speaker 1: I think, like you, if I were in your position
Speaker 1: I was forced to bet every single game, I would
Speaker 1: take the Bucks. But it's a. I'm leery of the giant.
Speaker 1: You know, there's so many giant spreads right now this
Speaker 1: week are out of curiosity. We'll get there. Actually, we'll
Speaker 1: get there later. So I want to know what you're
Speaker 1: doing with all the other giant spreads. But I'm going
Speaker 1: to take a Gamian. I feel confident you're on the
Speaker 1: you have taken the other side of this, okay, so
Speaker 1: we'll see about this one. I am going to take
Speaker 1: the Eagles getting three points from the Raiders.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: When I looked at this on Monday and I opened
Speaker 1: it up, I said, I'm pretty sure I'm going to
Speaker 1: wind up taking the Raiders because it felt like the
Speaker 1: right side. And then I dug into it a little bit,
Speaker 1: and I think that the Eagles are not only going
Speaker 1: to cover the spread, but if I had more intestinal fortitude,
Speaker 1: I would take them on the money line because I
Speaker 1: do think they wind up pulling this one out. I
Speaker 1: cannot quit the Eagles. I have tried. I don't know
Speaker 1: why I continue to back them, but I am going
Speaker 1: to do it. But it's also sort of a cell
Speaker 1: high spot for the Raiders. Right we had all these questions,
Speaker 1: how are the Raiders gonna respond? After the whole John
Speaker 1: Gruden thing, and they responded incredibly and it was one
Speaker 1: of two ways it can go, and the way it
Speaker 1: went was, Okay, we've got this giant weight lifted off
Speaker 1: our shoulder now, and they put up a tremendous effort there.
Speaker 1: But I think this is actually a good matchup here,
Speaker 1: especially for the Eagles defense, because what you've got is
Speaker 1: the Raiders that what do they really make their money on. Offensively,
Speaker 1: it's the explosive place, right like, that's what they do.
Speaker 1: They lead the league in pass plays of twenty plus
Speaker 1: yards with thirty two overall. But the Eagles converse, they
Speaker 1: are basically at the opposite end of the spectrum. They
Speaker 1: absolutely limit those plays. That's what their defense is almost
Speaker 1: designed to do. And you know, even though they have
Speaker 1: played the Bucks and the Cowboys and the Chiefs, they've
Speaker 1: allowed just eleven pass plays of twenty plus yards. So
Speaker 1: it is something where basically the Raiders' strength meets the
Speaker 1: exact strength of the Eagles defense. The Raiders can't really
Speaker 1: run the ball. Their offensive line is bad. They're averaging
Speaker 1: thirty three point four yards per carry. Pardon me. They
Speaker 1: twenty eighth in rush rushing DVA offensively, and the Eagles
Speaker 1: defensive line is very good and Derek Carr really there
Speaker 1: are two ways there at Car succeeds when you watch
Speaker 1: him play. Number one, there is no pressure on him
Speaker 1: and he's able to have time and survey the field.
Speaker 1: Are number two, he gets blitzed. Pretty good against the
Speaker 1: blitz but he is not good as most quarterbacks when
Speaker 1: you're able to get pressure on him without blitzing. That
Speaker 1: is something the Eagles do very very well. So offensively
Speaker 1: at the very least, I don't expect the Raiders to
Speaker 1: have a huge game for the Eagles offensively. Like the Bucks,
Speaker 1: they're coming off a mini bi I think they finally
Speaker 1: found a little bit of something here with Miles Sanders,
Speaker 1: which everybody in the world. I mean, you have their
Speaker 1: fans derisively cheering when they finally gave Sanders a carry,
Speaker 1: and they don't do it on a good day. They
Speaker 1: weren't doing it against the Bucks. But Sanders has played
Speaker 1: well when he's gotten the work. He played well against
Speaker 1: the Bucks when he got the work. You can attack
Speaker 1: the Raiders a little bit more here on the ground.
Speaker 1: Their secondary is also a little banged up. The Philadelphia
Speaker 1: is getting Dallas Goddard back now he's been activated off
Speaker 1: the COVID lit Sirianna's got to get something going. Okay,
Speaker 1: they're tuned four. They look stagnant on offense, is getting
Speaker 1: a lot of heat. I think they're going to take
Speaker 1: this week to design a game plan. It's basically a
Speaker 1: cell high spot here on the Raiders as well, So
Speaker 1: I don't I don't hit the under either. It's forty
Speaker 1: nine and a half for me, but my official pick
Speaker 1: is going to be the Eagles getting three points against
Speaker 1: the Raiders in Las Vegas. Tell me you're on the
Speaker 1: other side.
Speaker 2: No, So we're actually in agreement on this game. Now,
Speaker 2: I didn't I didn't back the Eagles though, but if
Speaker 2: I was going to take the spread out, I would
Speaker 2: have taken the Eagles. But I did take the bet
Speaker 2: that you just mentioned, which is the under. So I'm
Speaker 2: I'm on the under in this game. I agree with
Speaker 2: a lot of the points that you just that you
Speaker 2: just made two underrated defenses. Eagles are third in the
Speaker 2: NFL and pony yards per play. Vegas is fifth in
Speaker 2: the NFL and the pony yards per play. Both teams
Speaker 2: are good against the pass. The reason why I didn't
Speaker 2: take the Eagles and why they scared me a little bit,
Speaker 2: and you kind of alluded to it there you mentioned it,
Speaker 2: Eagle's very good at running the ball, but they kind
Speaker 2: of refuse to do it for their tenth and like
Speaker 2: passing play percentage, like they're just passing the ball like
Speaker 2: in the upper third of the NFL, but yet their
Speaker 2: second in the NFL in yards per carry. Like they're
Speaker 2: very good, very effective at running the ball, but they
Speaker 2: just don't do it that much, which makes no sense
Speaker 2: to me, especially when your quarterback is Jalen Hurts, like,
Speaker 2: run the ball like, I don't know. I don't know
Speaker 2: what they're doing. They haven't shown me yet that they're
Speaker 2: willing to do it, and until they are, I'm going
Speaker 2: to stop betting on them. Because actually, you mentioned at
Speaker 2: the start of your pick two about how much you've
Speaker 2: been betting on the Eagles. This is actually the first
Speaker 2: week I haven't taken the Eagles on the spread or
Speaker 2: money line, so I've been betting on the Eagles almost
Speaker 2: every week as well. But I want to see them
Speaker 2: start running the ball more, so I am going to
Speaker 2: take the under instead. I think it's just two underrated
Speaker 2: defenses well, I saw the total like I would have
Speaker 2: said it like forty six for me too.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be fair, I wanted another spread bed
Speaker 1: here anyway, just because I want to get into it.
Speaker 1: And I did like the Eagles when I got into it,
Speaker 1: and then I checked what the total was, and when
Speaker 1: it was forty nine, I was like, wait, what so
Speaker 1: really that's probably almost a better play, But you know
Speaker 1: what doing in game teaser, then tease the total up
Speaker 1: and take the under, and then tease the spread up
Speaker 1: for me for the Eagles, And yeah, look the Eagles
Speaker 1: they wound up covering the spread despite how bad they
Speaker 1: looked against the Bucks on Thursday. But also I do
Speaker 1: think I don't want to do the foulacity for rational coaching,
Speaker 1: but I think at this point, like you know, if
Speaker 1: you continue to do this, if you're Nick Siriani and
Speaker 1: you continue to run this offense through Jalen Hurts passing
Speaker 1: the ball and they continue to lose like this, that's
Speaker 1: just devastating for you as a coach, as a rookie coach,
Speaker 1: when you have someone like Miles Sanders and they run
Speaker 1: the ball pretty effectively. When they do so, they came out,
Speaker 1: you know, Shane Seken they came out. They basically like,
Speaker 1: we got to run the ball a little bit more here,
Speaker 1: So I do think that this is a spot for
Speaker 1: them to do that. So all right, let's recaut the
Speaker 1: picks very quickly. You're taking the Bengals on the money
Speaker 1: line against the Ravens at plus two point thirty. That's dropping,
Speaker 1: by the way, I see a couple of books now
Speaker 1: dropping it, So get on it now if you like that.
Speaker 1: You're taking the Jets and the Patriots under forty two
Speaker 1: and a half, a pick that I like very much
Speaker 1: as well, and the Bucks playing twelve and a half
Speaker 1: to the Bears. I'm taking the Panthers laying three to
Speaker 1: the Giants. I'm also taking the under forty three in
Speaker 1: that same game, and I'm also taking the Eagles getting
Speaker 1: three in Las Vegas. Let's run through the remaining spreads
Speaker 1: that we haven't touchdown, now, people, you know what I'm
Speaker 1: gonna actually ask it people listening to this. It'll drop,
Speaker 1: I'm sure before the Thursday night game, but just in
Speaker 1: case afterwards, so we can have our record. Where did
Speaker 1: you go here with the Broncos and the Browns? Since
Speaker 1: you have to pick every game right now, The spread,
Speaker 1: by the way, is at one and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't know if you were able to get it early
Speaker 1: enough at the you know, the the Broncos getting three
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: Originally, I'm on the Browns, so I lock in my
Speaker 2: bets Wednesday night. So did already drop down to one
Speaker 2: and a half.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: I'm a big underreact guy when it comes to injury news,
Speaker 2: So anytime you know, a player comes out like Baker
Speaker 2: Mayfield in this game, everyone's gonna jump on the Broncos.
Speaker 2: I like to underreact to the news and stick with
Speaker 2: that team. I did it last week. Russell Wilson got
Speaker 2: ruled out obviously, the sure Gino Smith got put in.
Speaker 2: Every everyone was betting against the Seahawks, they went with
Speaker 2: the Steelers. I underreacted to it. I took the Seahawks
Speaker 2: on the spread and a work though for me. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I'm sticking with the Browns here minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: I just think the offensive line is going to be
Speaker 2: able to get the job done. Denver's dead last the
Speaker 2: NFL and third down conversion percentage, which is a bad
Speaker 2: sign for their offense. I think the Browns get it
Speaker 2: done and case Keenum's a very capable backup.
Speaker 1: Oh yes, case Kinon's won the better backup quarterbacks only
Speaker 1: he could probably start for one or two teams here
Speaker 1: in the NFL. I am, I'm going to say this
Speaker 1: is a game that only betters and fantasy players can
Speaker 1: really love. But let's go to the Packers at home
Speaker 1: right now, laying seven and a half. There are some
Speaker 1: eight and a half's actually out there, so it's wild
Speaker 1: a little bit here. The Packers at home, length seven
Speaker 1: and a half to Washington.
Speaker 2: I'm taking Washington and the points in this one. I
Speaker 2: think people are overvaluing the Packers, especially their offense. Everyone's
Speaker 2: looking at Aaron Rodgers, you know, reigning MVP. They're eighteenth
Speaker 2: in yards per play, only slightly better than Wall at
Speaker 2: twenty first fourteenth and third down conversion percentage, twenty second,
Speaker 2: red zone offense, fifteenth in yards per carry, So statistically
Speaker 2: they're an average offense and defensively, fun little fact about them,
Speaker 2: dead last and red zone defense. Every single time an
Speaker 2: opponent has gone into the red zone this year, they've
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown fifteen red zone trips fifteen touchdowns. That's
Speaker 2: not a good sign. I like Washington in the points.
Speaker 1: All right, we already know you like the Bengals getting
Speaker 1: the six and a half, certainly from the Ravens as
Speaker 1: you mentioned. How about your Falcons traveling to Miami off
Speaker 1: a bye and getting two and a half points. No,
Speaker 1: giving to a half points. I'm so sorry giving to
Speaker 1: and a half points.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to back my Falcons here. I'm starting
Speaker 2: to buy in on them a little bit, to be
Speaker 2: completely honest. Dolphins, Panthers, Saints next three weeks. I've bought
Speaker 2: in on the fact they're gonna be five and three
Speaker 2: and in the hunt for wild card spot. But I
Speaker 2: think the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL
Speaker 2: quite frankly. And Falcons right now eighth in red zone offense,
Speaker 2: fifth and third down conversion percentage. I think that's a
Speaker 2: good sign of this offense. I think Arthur Smith is
Speaker 2: kind of coming into his own with his play calling,
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan a little bit more comfortable to the passable game.
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lay the points with the Falcons.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the offense is definitely playing a little better and
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are just in disarray right now. Also, I
Speaker 1: don't know how you don't take the buy after London,
Speaker 1: because I believe they offer every team that after London
Speaker 1: and you can't take the buy, and they opted not
Speaker 1: to terrible. There were obviously all the rumors about the
Speaker 1: Shaun Watson you know yesterday, so that team is just tough.
Speaker 1: And even if the secondary gets healthier with Zaman Howard
Speaker 1: and Barne Jones, like, I can't really trust them. So
Speaker 1: I am with you. Originally, when I first looked at it,
Speaker 1: I was like, I think the doll you know, they're
Speaker 1: not quite that bad, but I do trust a little
Speaker 1: bit more of the Falcons coming off the buy. How
Speaker 1: about the Jets are visiting New England, they are getting seven.
Speaker 2: That was the under that I'm on. I think if
Speaker 2: I go with the spread, I think i'd have to
Speaker 2: take Jets in the points because their defense is extremely underrated.
Speaker 2: Like I said earlier, second red zone defense. So I
Speaker 2: would take the Jets and the points. But that's my under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a complete I know you're on the ender,
Speaker 1: of course, but I would avoid. I can't take this
Speaker 1: bread like I just it's a terrible thing. I don't
Speaker 1: mac Jones when you were laying a touchdown is just
Speaker 1: not so thing I'm comfortable doing. Despite the fact that
Speaker 1: he has played pretty well, and you're hopeful that the
Speaker 1: Jets off the buy sort of get something going here.
Speaker 1: But it's a tough one, this one. I'm interested to
Speaker 1: hear which way you went. The Chiefs are visiting the Titans.
Speaker 1: The Chiefs are laying five. What'd you do with that one?
Speaker 2: I just took the over. I mean, flip a coin
Speaker 2: if you're gonna go to spread. Both these teams just
Speaker 2: just some of the worst defenses in the NFL right now.
Speaker 2: The total totals what up to, like fifty seven or something.
Speaker 1: Yeah, fifty seven, yep.
Speaker 2: I mean that's an it's insanely high total. But I
Speaker 2: can't back either team based on their defense. I mean
Speaker 2: the Chiefs laying points, I mean their defense is literally
Speaker 2: the worst in the NFL right now, So I can't lay.
Speaker 2: I can't lay points. I don't care who's their quarterback,
Speaker 2: I don't care how good their offense is. And then
Speaker 2: the Titans, I mean, their defense is almost as bad
Speaker 2: as the chief So on the spread, flip a coin,
Speaker 2: I guess the Chiefs have the better offense. Both defenses stink.
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna take the over and roof some points.
Speaker 1: Yeah, It's a terrible game to bet, really, and it's
Speaker 1: a weird spot too, because the Titans are coming off
Speaker 1: the Giant win on Monday Night. Who knows what that
Speaker 1: does to them, you know, exactly. So I mean, forced
Speaker 1: to pick a side, probably I'll take the Chiefs with
Speaker 1: get lay in the points. But it's a game that
Speaker 1: this would be the game, and this would be a
Speaker 1: game that on a spread level, I would just try
Speaker 1: to desperately avoid. We talked about the Panthers and the Giants.
Speaker 1: Let's get some of the bigger spreads. You've got the
Speaker 1: Rams laying fifteen and a half to Detroit in Los Angeles.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a big plug your nose game. I
Speaker 2: think you have to take the lines at that many points.
Speaker 2: I know you mentioned earlier you don't like betting double
Speaker 2: digit favorites. I'm the same way. But where I draw
Speaker 2: the line is two touchdowns. If you're gonna lay a
Speaker 2: team is getting over two touchdowns, I have to take
Speaker 2: the underdog. I mean, this is the NFL. These guys
Speaker 2: are professionals or professional athletes. They're gonna show up. This
Speaker 2: is not college football Alabama against South Carolina. These teams
Speaker 2: are gonna show up. But I mean, I'm a big
Speaker 2: stats guy. I look at stats more than anything else.
Speaker 2: And if you're gonna bet at based on the stats,
Speaker 2: you have to take the Rams. Like Rams are first
Speaker 2: in the NFL, and yards per past ten lines are
Speaker 2: dead last, so you literally have the best passing offense
Speaker 2: against literally the worst passing defense. So all the stats
Speaker 2: say the Rams are gonna win by like thirty, but
Speaker 2: the NFL is just yeah, fifteen points is none. The
Speaker 2: Rams could be up twenty one points, the line score
Speaker 2: like a garbage time touchdown with a minute left, and
Speaker 2: they're covering.
Speaker 1: So yeah, no, I'm That's the thing. I think if
Speaker 1: the Rams wanted to and they kept their foot on
Speaker 1: the gas, they'd win this game by thirty one points, right, Like,
Speaker 1: they can do whatever they want. But they won't, right
Speaker 1: because at the end of the game, they're just going
Speaker 1: to ease back, and you're right, it just screams back
Speaker 1: to our cover. I agree. If I have to go somewhere,
Speaker 1: I am taking the points, as I do with most
Speaker 1: of these games. We talked already about the Eagles Raiders,
Speaker 1: We talked already about the Bears and the Bucks. Another
Speaker 1: big spread, Cardinals ar laying seventeen and a half points
Speaker 1: to the Houston Texans Or is this another point where
Speaker 1: you're just like you have to take the points or what?
Speaker 2: Yeah, just take everything I just said about the last
Speaker 2: game and apply seventeen and a half points the NFL game.
Speaker 2: And also don't forget like I can kind of actually
Speaker 2: understand a little bit more with the Rams, but like
Speaker 2: the Cardinals defense eighteenth in opponent yards per play, second last,
Speaker 2: and opponent yards per carry. Teams are getting five point
Speaker 2: two yards per carry on the ground against them. This
Speaker 2: like no defense that's like an average to below average
Speaker 2: defense should be a seventeen and a half point favorite
Speaker 2: against an NFL team. Makes no sense to me. He
Speaker 2: got it back the Texans here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate it, but I agree. And the Sunday
Speaker 1: night game, forty nine ers are laying four to the
Speaker 1: Colts at very interesting or what you think about this one?
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is this is a tough game as well.
Speaker 2: I would put this right behind the Giants Panthers as
Speaker 2: far as the toughest games to GAINDICAP this week. I
Speaker 2: am gonna lay the points with the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: in this one. It really just comes down to the
Speaker 2: they have the much better defense. Really, both offenses are
Speaker 2: kind of comparable so far, especially like third down defense,
Speaker 2: which is something I look at quite a bit. Same
Speaker 2: with the red zone defense. Forty nine ers fourth and
Speaker 2: third down defense, Colts are twentieth. Colts are also terrible
Speaker 2: against the pass. No, the forty nine Ers obviously aren't
Speaker 2: a huge passing team, twenty eighth in opponent yards for
Speaker 2: past attempt The forty nine Ers will be able to
Speaker 2: do something against the air, against the through the air
Speaker 2: against this Colts team, I'm gonna lay the points with
Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, but it's definitely not one of
Speaker 2: my better bets of the week. It's a tough one.
Speaker 1: Yeah. When I looked at this on Monday, I like
Speaker 1: the Colts actually a lot, and now I don't. It's
Speaker 1: just to stay away from me, you know, the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers, you know, at home as a favorite. It's
Speaker 1: not like something where I want to necessarily back Kyle
Speaker 1: Shannan off the by though, you know, with Jimmy g
Speaker 1: back in there, which helps them, you know, from a
Speaker 1: betting perspective, at least in my opinion as of right now,
Speaker 1: with the Colts, I really do like what I've seen
Speaker 1: from them a little more offensively, and they're getting a
Speaker 1: little healthier, at least on the offensive line. Of course,
Speaker 1: maybe Quentin Nelson comes back, maybe, but they've also got
Speaker 1: other injuries. Hilton is fifty to fifty for Sunday, so
Speaker 1: I don't think you can rely on him. They obviously
Speaker 1: just lost Paris Campbell, and they have injuries on defense
Speaker 1: as well, So I think I would just if I
Speaker 1: if I had to bet like you, I would probably
Speaker 1: lean the forty nine ers, but I'm staying away. And finally,
Speaker 1: the Saints are visiting the Seahawks on Monday Night and
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are getting four and a half points. What
Speaker 1: do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a very similar handicap to the Sunday
Speaker 2: night game. I'm back the Saints laying the points here
Speaker 2: because it just comes down to the difference between the
Speaker 2: two defenses. Saints offense is actually not could at all
Speaker 2: and the Seahawks offense has completely lost their bite with
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson and Gino Smith in. But the Saints defense,
Speaker 2: compared to the Seahawks defense, just completely night and day.
Speaker 2: Saints have the best rush defense right now, only allowing
Speaker 2: three point three yards per carry, best red zone defense
Speaker 2: as well, which is absolutely huge. Also been a good
Speaker 2: road bet recently, fourteen to four against the spread in
Speaker 2: their last eighteen road games, So I think the defense
Speaker 2: is what makes the big difference here. Obviously, if Russell
Speaker 2: Wilson was playing, it's a different story. But I'll lay
Speaker 2: the points with the Saints in this one just based
Speaker 2: on how good their defense has been.
Speaker 1: Yeah, as well, I coming off the buy as well.
Speaker 1: I think they've got plenty of time to prepare, and
Speaker 1: you know that the Seayoffs are a little banged up
Speaker 1: here after that tough game there against the Steelers. All right, Ian,
Speaker 1: excellent work and again every your incredible job that you're
Speaker 1: doing this season, Like the number actually boggles my mind.
Speaker 1: So everybody make sure they follow you, but go ahead
Speaker 1: and tell everybody where they can find you in your work.
Speaker 2: Thank you. Yes, Twitter is probably the best place. eMac
Speaker 2: bets ai n m Ac Bets in the Bacon Bets
Speaker 2: podcast that gets released every Thursday morning, where I break
Speaker 2: down my pick for every single NFL game that week,
Speaker 2: So check that out as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I probably should again recap just all our
Speaker 1: picks just in case somebody you know forgot what they
Speaker 1: were the Bengals. You were taking the Bengals on the
Speaker 1: money line plus two thirty against the Ravens, the Jets
Speaker 1: and the Patriots under forty two and a half, and
Speaker 1: the Bucks laying twelve and a half to the Bears.
Speaker 1: I am taking the Panthers laying three to the Giants
Speaker 1: the under in that same game forty three, and also
Speaker 1: the Eagles getting three from the Raiders. Thanks everybody for
Speaker 1: tuning in. Again, if you're listening to this, we be
Speaker 1: back on Monday again breaking down with our early look
Speaker 1: at the Week eight NFL lines. And again, you want
Speaker 1: to watch this, you want to see a bunch of
Speaker 1: videos that we put out, go ahead and subscribe over
Speaker 1: on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.
Speaker 1: Thanks again for listening to everybody. I'll talk to again
Speaker 1: on Monday, m