WEBVTT - NFL Week 7 Best Bets (Ep. 119) 0:00:13.760 --> 0:00:17.600 Hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I 0:00:17.640 --> 0:00:20.280 am your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.439 Dan Harris eighty. It is time talk about our best 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.960 bets four week seven, and here to do that with 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:30.080 me is Ian McMillan over at bet sided. Find him 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:33.519 on Twitter at Ian mac betts. That's I A I 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:35.640 m Ian. Thanks for popping on the show again. How 0:00:35.680 --> 0:00:35.920 are you. 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.199 I'm doing well man, Thanks for having me. 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:40.199 Yeah, it's great to have you now. I do want 0:00:40.240 --> 0:00:41.680 to ask because I know the last time you were on, 0:00:41.720 --> 0:00:44.560 which was for the Early look aheadlines, you had mentioned 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:48.240 that you are betting every single NFL game this year. 0:00:48.320 --> 0:00:49.600 I want to know how that's going for you. 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:52.840 So far, it's going way better than I ever could 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:56.720 have imagined. To be completely honest, I never would have 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:58.120 expected I got off to this heart of a star. 0:00:58.280 --> 0:01:01.640 But I'm sixty three and thirty one for up twenty 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:03.960 nine point nine to two units. So oh, my best 0:01:04.000 --> 0:01:07.919 start I've ever had in any betting, you know, betting, 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:10.840 any sport ever. So it's definitely not going to keep up. 0:01:10.840 --> 0:01:12.959 I'm not gonna hit it close to seventy percent all season, 0:01:13.000 --> 0:01:14.520 but I'll enjoy wild lasts. 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:16.880 All right, well, hopefully it doesn't end until after this week. 0:01:16.880 --> 0:01:18.600 At least you can get out some good ad. Guys here, 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:20.560 are you just betting spreads, by the way, or are 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:22.119 you betting totals or anything else? 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:26.880 Spreads? Totals and at least one money line underdog, well, 0:01:26.880 --> 0:01:28.720 which I've actually done. I think I'm like eight and 0:01:28.760 --> 0:01:30.800 one with my money line underdog picks, so that those 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.240 that helps quite a bit when you're hitting at that. 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.800 Rate with those, yeah, no doubt. All right, well, hopefully 0:01:36.800 --> 0:01:39.000 you have a money line underdog for us today. But 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:40.680 let's get into it again. This is our three best 0:01:40.680 --> 0:01:43.280 bets for the weekend Spreads, totals or money lines, is 0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:45.560 Ian said. And then we're just going to quickly run 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:47.200 through any of the games that we didn't touch on. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:50.120 Before we do, let's get into the latest offer from 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.520 bet MGM. This whole podcast is brought to you by 0:01:52.560 --> 0:01:55.040 bet MGM, and new customers can bet ten dollars and 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:57.400 win two hundred dollars if the team they bet on 0:01:57.600 --> 0:02:00.840 scores a touchdown this weekend. In the end, fl again 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:03.440 ten dollars two hundred dollars in free bets from BEDMGM. 0:02:03.480 --> 0:02:05.880 For new customers when you sign up here with our 0:02:05.960 --> 0:02:09.399 code Juice one hundred again Daily Juice. That is our 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.640 daily podcast hosted by Matt Perrault. Juice one hundred is 0:02:12.639 --> 0:02:17.200 the code and that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:22.639 West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, d C, Arizona, 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:25.400 and Wyoming. In addition, we are giving away as signed 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.440 Taquon Barkley, Jersey. It is real easy to enter for 0:02:28.520 --> 0:02:31.000 that giveaway, to leave review, honest review, whatever you want 0:02:31.040 --> 0:02:33.720 to say here for this show over an Apple podcasts 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:35.560 or castbox, and then go to Betting Pros dot com 0:02:35.560 --> 0:02:39.320 slash review. If you are subscribed to our YouTube channel 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:41.679 over YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That's three times 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:43.320 the entries and I also get a lot of good stuff, 0:02:43.320 --> 0:02:45.560 including a props video, my weekly video that I just 0:02:45.639 --> 0:02:48.760 dropped right before, which should probably come out shortly after 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.840 you listen to this podcast. All right, before we get 0:02:51.840 --> 0:02:56.000 into Ian's Unstoppable picks, I suppose let's very briefly recap 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:58.839 last week. Our guest Benny Richardi went two and one. 0:02:58.880 --> 0:03:00.880 He hit on the Bengals three and a half to 0:03:01.040 --> 0:03:03.239 the Lions, and he hitting the Cowboys laying three and 0:03:03.240 --> 0:03:04.760 a half to the Patriots, even though I'm going to 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:06.480 say that I still think that that was obviously the 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.640 wrong side and I was leaning the other way. He 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:10.960 did miss though, on the Chiefs and the Washington football 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:12.880 team over fifty four and a half. I also went 0:03:12.919 --> 0:03:15.320 to in one another positive day, hitting on the Bengals 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:17.640 and Lions under forty seven and a half, the Vikings 0:03:17.720 --> 0:03:19.639 laying one and a half to the Panthers. I did 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.080 miss on my favorite bet of the week, admittedly, which 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.000 was the Browns laying three to the Cardinals. I will 0:03:25.000 --> 0:03:27.040 say that now puts me It is not quite an 0:03:27.080 --> 0:03:29.400 Ian McMillan level, but it puts me at twelve and 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:33.080 four so far on this podcast, five consecutive winning weeks. 0:03:33.120 --> 0:03:34.640 So we've got a lot of things going in our 0:03:34.639 --> 0:03:36.960 favorite Ian. Let's hope that we can keep going. It 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:40.000 is a tougher slate obviously, with all the bull with 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:42.360 all the buys. Pardon me, but remember're going to be 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.600 using bettingpros dot Com lines. I'll note when there are 0:03:45.600 --> 0:03:47.360 differences and everything like that. You can use the app. 0:03:47.360 --> 0:03:49.280 By the way, the betting pros app download Make your picks. 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:52.240 Follow along in the leaderboard. Ian, I've talked enough, Go ahead, 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:53.960 what's your first pick of the week. 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:59.280 So my first pick of the week here? Does it 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:00.960 matter what we start with? Total reprea? 0:04:01.080 --> 0:04:03.559 Does it? You get to start with whatever you want? 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:06.160 Okay, I'm gonna give I'm gonna I'm gonna start out hot. 0:04:06.160 --> 0:04:09.880 Then I'm gonna give out my most aggressive pick. I 0:04:09.920 --> 0:04:12.440 would recommend most people probably take the spread here, take 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.360 the points. But I mentioned I've been doing well with 0:04:15.360 --> 0:04:17.159 my money line underdog picks. I got a little bit 0:04:17.200 --> 0:04:20.240 of a heat check this week. I'm tossing up a 0:04:20.800 --> 0:04:23.240 tossing up a shot from mid court here from the logo. 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:28.039 Love this pick. Bengals plus two to twenty five against 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:30.279 the Baltimore Ravens. I'm taking them on the money line. 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:32.080 You can get them what plus six plus six and 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:33.760 a half right now? If you want to be a 0:04:33.800 --> 0:04:35.800 little bit more conservative, and I would not blame you, 0:04:37.120 --> 0:04:38.760 but first of all, I think this is a big 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.280 sell high spot on the Ravens. I mean, you know this, 0:04:42.360 --> 0:04:44.760 betting on sports, especially the NFL, is a little bit 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:46.680 like kind of the stock market. You want to buy 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:48.320 low on some teams, at some point you want to 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:50.040 sell high on some other teams. I think this is 0:04:50.080 --> 0:04:52.680 a big sell high spot on the Ravens. After that 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:54.680 big comeback two weeks ago against the Colts on Monday 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:57.360 Night Football, big win last week against the Chargers, who 0:04:57.400 --> 0:05:00.560 everyone's been praising lately, but don't forget like a few 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:02.920 weeks ago they needed a sixty six aired field goal 0:05:02.960 --> 0:05:06.120 to beat the Detroit Lions. So this team's not unbeatable. 0:05:06.279 --> 0:05:08.480 And the Bengals have actually impressed me so far the season, 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.800 especially their defense second in the NFL and opponent yards 0:05:11.839 --> 0:05:15.159 per play and seventh in opponent yards per carry, And 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:17.960 we know that's huge. If you want to beat the Ravens, 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:19.599 you have to be able to stop the run, and 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:22.080 the Bengals run defense has been pretty solid this year. 0:05:22.320 --> 0:05:25.160 Ravens defense hasn't been as good as people expected, especially 0:05:25.200 --> 0:05:28.200 in their secondary twenty first and opponent yards per past tempt. 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:29.839 I expect Joe Burrow to have a big day. So 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:33.760 my heat check game, my money line upset pick Bengals 0:05:33.800 --> 0:05:34.880 plus two twenty fives. 0:05:34.920 --> 0:05:38.240 The Ravens, well, I think, like I'm not gonna take 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.200 it with you Okay, I'm gonna let you be as 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.560 hot as impossilic to kiss this up now. You obviously 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:44.280 like the six and a half, as you mentioned, which 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:45.640 is where it is, by the way, consensus right now, 0:05:45.720 --> 0:05:48.040 six and a half. I'm a little worried just about 0:05:48.120 --> 0:05:50.000 how good the Ravens are at home. They're just this 0:05:50.200 --> 0:05:53.560 absolutely dominant on the road, like obviously the odds wouldn't 0:05:53.560 --> 0:05:56.200 be as good, of course, but I do think that 0:05:56.279 --> 0:05:58.800 the Bengals are a much much better team than I 0:05:58.839 --> 0:06:02.400 still think even the public gives them credit for their defense. 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:05.839 Has really surprised me with how well they've played. Burrow again, 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:08.360 I expected to struggle early on in the season because 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:10.839 I thought figured, you know, coming back from the injury, 0:06:10.839 --> 0:06:13.039 both physically and mentally, he would be a little slow, 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:15.440 but he has been great. Jamar Chase has been elite 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.440 out there, and the Ravens do have holes. I think 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:21.160 I might be a little gun shy just because of 0:06:21.440 --> 0:06:24.800 I was actually on the Chargers last week against them, 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.480 and they just absolutely destroyed them. So you realistically you 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:30.280 think the Bengals are gonna walk out of here winners. 0:06:31.640 --> 0:06:33.720 I like Bengals plus six and a half. Obviously a 0:06:33.760 --> 0:06:35.920 lot better if you just want to take a bet 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:37.960 that's gonna win. I think I Bengals and the points 0:06:38.080 --> 0:06:40.479 is a great bet. But like I said, I've been 0:06:40.560 --> 0:06:43.760 hitting my money line underdog picks this so far this year. 0:06:43.800 --> 0:06:46.599 It's a heat check. It's a little bit like, yeah 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:49.120 what I am, But I mean divisional game as well. 0:06:49.160 --> 0:06:50.919 I think it's gonna be closed. I think the Bengals 0:06:50.960 --> 0:06:53.080 can win this. Also two weeks when the Bengals lost 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:55.600 to the Packers in overtime, I still walked away like 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:57.960 more impressed with the Bengals even though they lost than 0:06:57.960 --> 0:06:59.120 what I was before that game. 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:02.360 So a hundred and they obviously could have easily won 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.440 that game, of course, given all the field goal issues 0:07:05.480 --> 0:07:08.680 and everything like that. But I do think that the 0:07:08.760 --> 0:07:11.840 divisional game aspect of it does weigh certainly in your 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:14.960 favorite because every divisional game just scares the crap out 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:16.400 of you because you just have no idea. The teams 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:18.960 know each other well. Obviously, we know exactly what Baltimore 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:20.480 is going to do. It's really just about whether or 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:24.080 not they can start them. Okay, I'm going to take 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.080 a pick that I really I don't like taking those 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:28.560 type of pick okay, so feel free. I want to 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.760 know which side you're on. I'm taking a road favorite, 0:07:31.800 --> 0:07:34.960 which is don't love it. It's the Panthers lanth three 0:07:35.160 --> 0:07:38.000 to the Giants. For me, there are just a lot 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:40.760 of things working against the Giants in this game. First Off, 0:07:40.800 --> 0:07:44.480 they're just generally speaking terrible at home own three this year, 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:48.160 nine and twenty six at Medlife since twenty seventeen. Nobody 0:07:48.200 --> 0:07:50.480 is showing up to these games. The fans when they do, 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.080 they're pretty much just booing. So it's a road game 0:07:53.080 --> 0:07:54.800 for Carolina because they're away from home, but it's not 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:58.640 exactly like they're walking into any sort of hostile environment. Second, 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:01.240 the Giants offensive line is really in terrible shape. They 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:03.720 actually played pretty well early on the season, better than 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.600 I expected them to play, but you saw what happened 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:08.480 against the Rams. A lot of that is Andrew Thomas, 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:10.559 who also was one of the key cogs and playing 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:12.880 better than I expected him to play, but he is 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:15.760 now out for this game. And on ir and again, 0:08:15.840 --> 0:08:18.560 it's it's not just the quality of their alignment at 0:08:18.560 --> 0:08:21.120 this point, it's the consistency in the fact that they're 0:08:21.160 --> 0:08:23.320 constantly shuffling guys in and out because they're getting nicked 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:25.280 up and they're moving guys from one position to another. 0:08:25.360 --> 0:08:27.240 It's really difficult to play with an offensive line, and 0:08:27.240 --> 0:08:30.400 that's huge for someone like Daniel Jones, who's just much 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:34.000 worse when he is pressured. Fifty four percent completion percentage 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:36.640 when he's under pressure. And the Panthers, even on a 0:08:36.679 --> 0:08:39.040 bad day, get pressure like their fourth and pressure. Right 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:40.480 they're one of the better teams there. So against this 0:08:40.520 --> 0:08:43.880 offensive line with all, by the way, the injuries the 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.520 playmakers offensively, like I don't expect seko On Barkley, I 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.280 don't expect Darius Tony, and I don't expect Kenni Galladay 0:08:49.480 --> 0:08:52.679 to play at this point. So they're really down a 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:54.600 lot of AMMO here on offense. So I think they're 0:08:54.640 --> 0:08:57.120 going to struggle to score. And the Panthers, by the way, 0:08:57.280 --> 0:08:58.880 have a good defense. I know they had the JC 0:08:59.000 --> 0:09:01.439 Horn injury. Keith Taylor has subbed in pretty well, so 0:09:01.600 --> 0:09:05.280 J Henderson is getting healthier. I don't think Stefan Gilmore 0:09:05.320 --> 0:09:07.600 is gonna be up for this game, but regardless, they 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:10.920 are playing pretty well defensively anyway, and offensively. I didn't 0:09:10.920 --> 0:09:12.400 like the spot for them last week again I said 0:09:12.400 --> 0:09:15.440 I took the Vikings Ian because of the pressure. That's 0:09:15.440 --> 0:09:17.120 a big thing. I think with Sam Darnold, which I 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.920 know very well having watched him for years, that is 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:21.640 not where the Giants shine. The Giants do not get 0:09:21.640 --> 0:09:24.040 a ton of pressure. So I think that's pretty good 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.040 as to what we're gonna see. And as well, I 0:09:26.040 --> 0:09:27.679 think you heard them talk about the fact that they're 0:09:27.679 --> 0:09:29.560 gonna run the ball here a little more. Take some 0:09:29.559 --> 0:09:32.040 pressure off Donald. That is good. The Giants are twenty 0:09:32.080 --> 0:09:35.360 seventh in DVA against the run. This game just kind 0:09:35.360 --> 0:09:37.280 of sets up well for me for the Panthers. They 0:09:37.320 --> 0:09:39.360 need to win. They don't have to take chances to 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.240 get it. You gotta banged up Giants team in dis array. 0:09:42.559 --> 0:09:46.600 So seventy percent ian Panthers laying three on the road 0:09:46.640 --> 0:09:48.040 to the Giants, tell me what you're thinking. 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:51.640 Yeah, to be honest, out of all the games this week, 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:53.840 the Giants Panthers game is the one game where, like 0:09:53.960 --> 0:09:56.199 I wish I wasn't betting on every single NFL game, 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:59.480 because really pass on this game. I think this is 0:09:59.520 --> 0:10:02.120 the toughest game, toughest game on the board this week 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:06.920 in my opinion, and any what concerns me is number one, 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:09.480 the injuries. But what concerns me with the Panthers when 0:10:09.480 --> 0:10:11.240 you look at their stats compared to the first three 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:14.280 games compared to the last three games, just night and day. So, like, 0:10:14.600 --> 0:10:16.439 what version, in my opinion, like, what version of the 0:10:16.480 --> 0:10:18.240 Panthers team is for real? Are they more like the 0:10:18.280 --> 0:10:19.920 team they played like in the first three weeks or 0:10:19.920 --> 0:10:21.880 are they more like the team that we saw the 0:10:21.960 --> 0:10:26.240 last three weeks. Anytime that there was a toss up game, 0:10:26.280 --> 0:10:28.040 in my opinion, which I think this is, I end 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.400 up just taking the team that's getting the points. So 0:10:30.480 --> 0:10:32.640 I am on the Giants. But like I said, I 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:34.600 think it's it's my least favorite bet of the week. 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:37.040 I cannot argue against someone who's on the Panthers. I 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.720 went back and forth for a while trying to decide 0:10:39.720 --> 0:10:42.280 who to bet on in this game. But it's tough. 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:44.640 But I mean, you made a couple of really good points. 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:47.840 Giants eight twenty one and one against the spread their 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:51.760 last thirty home games, We're just terrible, terrible, terrible. Daniel 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:55.000 Daniel Jones is terrible at home compared to on the road, 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.640 So those things are certainly going in the Panthers favor. 0:10:57.760 --> 0:10:59.960 So I am on the Giants, but I will not 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:02.640 I will not argue too much against the Panthers pick. 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.160 So what's funny is that I think that your point 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.120 of like, well, which Panthers team are we going to see? 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:08.719 I think you're going to see the version of the 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:11.560 Panthers team that plays the crappy opponent, which is what 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:13.280 we saw in the first three games. Now that the 0:11:13.280 --> 0:11:15.880 Saints weren't terrible, but the Saints aren't that good or 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.800 anything like that. The Jets in Houston versus what you 0:11:18.840 --> 0:11:21.600 see in the next three games, which is Dallas Philadelphia, 0:11:21.640 --> 0:11:23.560 which their defense played fine. By the way, they easily 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.079 could have won that game. But the Philadelphia defense is 0:11:26.160 --> 0:11:28.120 much stronger, and we'll talk about that maybe in a 0:11:28.120 --> 0:11:30.040 little bit. And I think people give them credit for 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.200 and then Minnesota to me honestly, offensively, I think this 0:11:33.280 --> 0:11:34.560 is a game first of all, they have to win 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:36.679 because they've got to get back on track number one. 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:39.320 And I think the Giants them I think sometimes like 0:11:39.360 --> 0:11:41.040 I don't have a model. I admit, like I don't 0:11:41.040 --> 0:11:42.480 have a model that I plug in and I come 0:11:42.559 --> 0:11:44.320 up with the appropriate spread. I know a lot of 0:11:44.360 --> 0:11:47.080 you know, professional gamblerss and everything like that. But I 0:11:47.120 --> 0:11:49.120 think this is just a spot right now where there 0:11:49.160 --> 0:11:51.680 are some things of regardless of sort of how it 0:11:51.760 --> 0:11:53.800 might look on the service level, you just dig deep 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:56.880 into this Giants team. They look broken right now, and 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:00.320 whether it's the constant injuries or whatever it is, I mean, 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:03.840 they're just absolutely devastated at this point. I don't think 0:12:03.880 --> 0:12:07.200 they really have at this point that the mental you know, 0:12:07.800 --> 0:12:10.120 I almost say mental wherewithal but just where they are 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:11.720 right now to be able to come in here and 0:12:11.720 --> 0:12:14.160 put it against the team that is desperate for a win. 0:12:14.480 --> 0:12:16.120 And again, I think the fact that they're going to 0:12:16.160 --> 0:12:17.920 be able to be Panthers, to be able to take 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:22.760 such like a non risky game, essentially a safe game 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.280 plan here, I think leads of their favorite But that's fine. 0:12:25.400 --> 0:12:26.920 You don't even want to bet it. You did have 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:28.679 to bet it, and you bet against me. So this 0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.600 is where the irresistible force meets the immovable object with 0:12:31.679 --> 0:12:33.360 this one. All right, get to your next game? What 0:12:33.400 --> 0:12:33.840 do you want? 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:38.560 All right? So I'll go I'll go my total, my 0:12:38.559 --> 0:12:40.760 favorite total for the week here and I'm gonna go 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:43.920 Jets Patriots under forty two and a half is what 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:45.880 I got to that I think this is just a spot. 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:48.959 You can't overthink it. They already played once this season. 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.280 I took the under in that game and finished with 0:12:51.360 --> 0:12:53.520 a total of thirty one points. Score of that game. 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:57.559 I mean, it's two bad offenses and two good defenses. 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:00.440 So yards per play Patriots are twenty third, Jets are 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:04.079 thirty first, red zone offense Patriots thirtieth, Jets twenty eighth, 0:13:04.200 --> 0:13:08.240 points per game Patriots twenty fourth, Jets dead last. And 0:13:08.280 --> 0:13:11.640 then the defensive side of those stats, Patriots thirteenth, fifth 0:13:11.679 --> 0:13:16.439 and ninth, Jets ninth, second and eighteenth. Interesting fact, they're 0:13:16.440 --> 0:13:19.120 about the Jets second and red zone defense so far 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:22.199 this NFL season, which I did not expect before looking 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.319 into those numbers. Yeah, and obviously red zone defense is huge. 0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:27.880 If we're betting on an under, you want those drives 0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.520 to end in field goals, not in touchdowns. So fifth 0:13:30.559 --> 0:13:32.719 and second in red zone defense makes me quite a 0:13:32.720 --> 0:13:35.920 bit more confident. Also, Bill Belichick has been one of 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:38.520 the most conservative coaches in the NFL so far the 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.280 season with his play calling. He's not taking a whole 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.600 lot of shots downfield, not going forward on fourth down, 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:50.960 basically whatsoever the Jets offense has has I apologize because 0:13:51.160 --> 0:13:55.600 I know you're a jew. Non existing Yeah, I got 0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.800 just non existing against decent defenses so far the season. So, 0:14:00.320 --> 0:14:02.360 like I said first meeting in in thirty one points, 0:14:02.400 --> 0:14:04.000 it's a bit of a low total forty two and 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:05.920 a half, which does scare me a little bit. Sure, 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:07.160 I think when you look at the numbers, I think 0:14:07.160 --> 0:14:08.640 it's the only play you can make in this game. 0:14:09.120 --> 0:14:12.400 Ah, that's the correct pick. And I would have taken 0:14:12.440 --> 0:14:14.320 it as well if not for you, as I look 0:14:15.000 --> 0:14:16.880 the way we've worked since the first game, where I 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:18.320 felt like I got the short end of the stick 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:21.560 because I didn't get Seawan's picks the first week pardon me, 0:14:21.600 --> 0:14:23.400 where I didn't get Shawn's picks and events and he 0:14:23.480 --> 0:14:25.360 picked my favorite game of the week, and I would 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:27.360 sort of like, all right, I'll scramble and pick another one. 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.080 I now get our guests picks in advance, just so 0:14:30.120 --> 0:14:32.880 I can know exactly what they are. And this I 0:14:32.880 --> 0:14:35.320 immediately emailed back Ian and I was like, Ah, that 0:14:35.440 --> 0:14:37.400 was definitely a pick I was eyeing as well. Yes, 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:39.080 all the reasons that you said, I think this is 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:42.520 absolutely a game that is just going to lean heavily 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:44.560 towards the ender. It again, there are a lot of 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:48.120 these load totals, and I think better first of all, better' 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.160 is like overs anyway, like casual betters, because you want 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.440 to root for something then again something. And I think 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:57.040 these low totals generally scare betters off regardless. But I 0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:59.360 really think there are a lot of teams that you 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:01.880 can go. I mean again, I picked the Broncos under 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:03.800 for the first like three or four weeks. I think 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:06.480 that's been a good spot generally speaking. I have it 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:09.280 as well tonight so people will know when they listen. 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:11.000 So I hope not not in the under. I've teased 0:15:11.000 --> 0:15:13.720 the under up. Just overitess, Okay, I am going to 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:16.400 stick with your least favorite game. Because you went with 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:18.320 the over under, I will also go with an over under. 0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:20.640 I will stick in this Panthers Giants game, which is 0:15:20.800 --> 0:15:23.400 very funny to me because it's the game. You're like, man, 0:15:24.000 --> 0:15:25.480 the one game out of the whole year that I 0:15:25.520 --> 0:15:27.440 need to get away from is this game. And I'm like, sweet, 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:29.640 let me bet all my money on this game. And 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:32.360 it is so the total right now, the consensus total 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:34.720 at bettingpros dot com is forty three. There are some 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:36.680 forty three and a half's out there. It's actually forty 0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:38.680 two and a half at my book DraftKings, but the 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:40.720 consensus line is forty three. That's where most books are, 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:42.880 and I am going the under, and it is basically 0:15:42.880 --> 0:15:44.960 for all the reasons I explained before. I think the 0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:48.240 Giants are going to really struggle to put up points here. 0:15:48.440 --> 0:15:52.120 You know, whatever they are able to do, you know, defensively, 0:15:52.160 --> 0:15:54.120 we'll talk about that in the second. Offensively, it's just 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:56.440 very difficult to see. I think for this to go over, 0:15:56.480 --> 0:15:59.400 you're going to need some sort of defensive score here 0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:02.680 from the Panthers are something flukey, which again always the 0:16:02.960 --> 0:16:06.040 worry when you have this high low of total and everything. 0:16:06.040 --> 0:16:08.560 But I do think again with their offensive line injuries, 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:11.600 with how few playmakers they have, with how bad Daniel 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:15.320 Jones plays at home generally speaking, with how Baddie is 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.840 especially under pressure, it just really strikes me as a 0:16:18.880 --> 0:16:20.240 game that they're not going to put up a lot 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.000 of points. And conversely, again this is not me buying 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:25.600 into Sam Darnold. They're buying into the Panthers' offense. What 0:16:25.640 --> 0:16:29.040 This is buying into is Matt rule, understanding that they 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.680 have to win a game, and the way to do 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:35.200 that is to run the ball a ton against a 0:16:35.320 --> 0:16:38.240 defense that struggles to stop the run. And when you 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.120 do that, when you run the ball, the clock keeps running. 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.280 They're in no hurry to really get here. So I 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.760 think this is another game where the game script sets 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:47.480 up two teams that are not going to put up 0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:49.960 a ton of points. One of the teams that probably 0:16:49.960 --> 0:16:51.520 will win is going to run the ball a ton, 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.040 especially when I think they are leading in this game, 0:16:54.080 --> 0:16:55.800 as I expect them to win, and then they want 0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.160 to run out the clock. To me, it screams under 0:16:58.240 --> 0:17:00.560 as a low scoring game. So I imagine you are avoiding 0:17:00.600 --> 0:17:03.360 this game entirely regardless of the over under. But I'm 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.399 gonna go under here for under forty three is the 0:17:06.400 --> 0:17:08.040 official play for my second pick. 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.000 Yeah, I was deciding between for this game. I was 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.240 deciding between the Giants or the under. So I agree 0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:15.440 with you on the on the on the total play, 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.920 I would not be going over in this game whatsoever, 0:17:18.080 --> 0:17:19.880 based on how these two teams have looked so far 0:17:19.960 --> 0:17:23.520 this season. So yeah, I'm not playing the under. But 0:17:23.560 --> 0:17:25.920 like I said, I was deciding between Giants and the 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:27.520 points in the under. I ended up going with the 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:28.320 Giants on this game. 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:30.840 But I like the pick, all right, I will accept that. 0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.119