1 00:00:13,760 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: Hey everybody, welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast. I 2 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,280 Speaker 1: am your host, Dan Harris. Find me on Twitter at 3 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,439 Speaker 1: Dan Harris eighty. It is time talk about our best 4 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:25,960 Speaker 1: bets four week seven, and here to do that with 5 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 1: me is Ian McMillan over at bet sided. Find him 6 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Ian mac betts. That's I A I 7 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: m Ian. Thanks for popping on the show again. How 8 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: are you. 9 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:38,199 Speaker 2: I'm doing well man, Thanks for having me. 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's great to have you now. I do want 11 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: to ask because I know the last time you were on, 12 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: which was for the Early look aheadlines, you had mentioned 13 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,240 Speaker 1: that you are betting every single NFL game this year. 14 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: I want to know how that's going for you. 15 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,840 Speaker 2: So far, it's going way better than I ever could 16 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:56,720 Speaker 2: have imagined. To be completely honest, I never would have 17 00:00:56,720 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 2: expected I got off to this heart of a star. 18 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,640 Speaker 2: But I'm sixty three and thirty one for up twenty 19 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:03,960 Speaker 2: nine point nine to two units. So oh, my best 20 00:01:04,000 --> 00:01:07,919 Speaker 2: start I've ever had in any betting, you know, betting, 21 00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 2: any sport ever. So it's definitely not going to keep up. 22 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:12,959 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna hit it close to seventy percent all season, 23 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 2: but I'll enjoy wild lasts. 24 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 1: All right, well, hopefully it doesn't end until after this week. 25 00:01:16,880 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 1: At least you can get out some good ad. Guys here, 26 00:01:18,640 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 1: are you just betting spreads, by the way, or are 27 00:01:20,560 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 1: you betting totals or anything else? 28 00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 2: Spreads? Totals and at least one money line underdog, well, 29 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: which I've actually done. I think I'm like eight and 30 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 2: one with my money line underdog picks, so that those 31 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: that helps quite a bit when you're hitting at that. 32 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:36,800 Speaker 1: Rate with those, yeah, no doubt. All right, well, hopefully 33 00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: you have a money line underdog for us today. But 34 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 1: let's get into it again. This is our three best 35 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:43,280 Speaker 1: bets for the weekend Spreads, totals or money lines, is 36 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: Ian said. And then we're just going to quickly run 37 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:47,200 Speaker 1: through any of the games that we didn't touch on. 38 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,120 Speaker 1: Before we do, let's get into the latest offer from 39 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:52,520 Speaker 1: bet MGM. 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Juice one hundred is 47 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 1: the code and that is available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 48 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:22,639 Speaker 1: West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, d C, Arizona, 49 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: and Wyoming. In addition, we are giving away as signed 50 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:28,440 Speaker 1: Taquon Barkley, Jersey. It is real easy to enter for 51 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: that giveaway, to leave review, honest review, whatever you want 52 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: to say here for this show over an Apple podcasts 53 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: or castbox, and then go to Betting Pros dot com 54 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: slash review. If you are subscribed to our YouTube channel 55 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:41,679 Speaker 1: over YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. That's three times 56 00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: the entries and I also get a lot of good stuff, 57 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: including a props video, my weekly video that I just 58 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 1: dropped right before, which should probably come out shortly after 59 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: you listen to this podcast. All right, before we get 60 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: into Ian's Unstoppable picks, I suppose let's very briefly recap 61 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,839 Speaker 1: last week. Our guest Benny Richardi went two and one. 62 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 1: He hit on the Bengals three and a half to 63 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,239 Speaker 1: the Lions, and he hitting the Cowboys laying three and 64 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:04,760 Speaker 1: a half to the Patriots, even though I'm going to 65 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: say that I still think that that was obviously the 66 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,640 Speaker 1: wrong side and I was leaning the other way. He 67 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,960 Speaker 1: did miss though, on the Chiefs and the Washington football 68 00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 1: team over fifty four and a half. I also went 69 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: to in one another positive day, hitting on the Bengals 70 00:03:15,320 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: and Lions under forty seven and a half, the Vikings 71 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 1: laying one and a half to the Panthers. I did 72 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 1: miss on my favorite bet of the week, admittedly, which 73 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:25,000 Speaker 1: was the Browns laying three to the Cardinals. I will 74 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,040 Speaker 1: say that now puts me It is not quite an 75 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 1: Ian McMillan level, but it puts me at twelve and 76 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:33,080 Speaker 1: four so far on this podcast, five consecutive winning weeks. 77 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:34,640 Speaker 1: So we've got a lot of things going in our 78 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 1: favorite Ian. Let's hope that we can keep going. It 79 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:40,000 Speaker 1: is a tougher slate obviously, with all the bull with 80 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: all the buys. Pardon me, but remember're going to be 81 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 1: using bettingpros dot Com lines. I'll note when there are 82 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: differences and everything like that. You can use the app. 83 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: By the way, the betting pros app download Make your picks. 84 00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: Follow along in the leaderboard. Ian, I've talked enough, Go ahead, 85 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: what's your first pick of the week. 86 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 2: So my first pick of the week here? Does it 87 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: matter what we start with? Total reprea? 88 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,559 Speaker 1: Does it? You get to start with whatever you want? 89 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 2: Okay, I'm gonna give I'm gonna I'm gonna start out hot. 90 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 2: Then I'm gonna give out my most aggressive pick. I 91 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: would recommend most people probably take the spread here, take 92 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 2: the points. But I mentioned I've been doing well with 93 00:04:15,360 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 2: my money line underdog picks. I got a little bit 94 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,240 Speaker 2: of a heat check this week. I'm tossing up a 95 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 2: tossing up a shot from mid court here from the logo. 96 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:28,039 Speaker 2: Love this pick. Bengals plus two to twenty five against 97 00:04:28,080 --> 00:04:30,279 Speaker 2: the Baltimore Ravens. I'm taking them on the money line. 98 00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 2: You can get them what plus six plus six and 99 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 2: a half right now? If you want to be a 100 00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:35,800 Speaker 2: little bit more conservative, and I would not blame you, 101 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 2: but first of all, I think this is a big 102 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 2: sell high spot on the Ravens. I mean, you know this, 103 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: betting on sports, especially the NFL, is a little bit 104 00:04:44,920 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 2: like kind of the stock market. You want to buy 105 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:48,320 Speaker 2: low on some teams, at some point you want to 106 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 2: sell high on some other teams. I think this is 107 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 2: a big sell high spot on the Ravens. After that 108 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,680 Speaker 2: big comeback two weeks ago against the Colts on Monday 109 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 2: Night Football, big win last week against the Chargers, who 110 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: everyone's been praising lately, but don't forget like a few 111 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:02,920 Speaker 2: weeks ago they needed a sixty six aired field goal 112 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 2: to beat the Detroit Lions. So this team's not unbeatable. 113 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 2: And the Bengals have actually impressed me so far the season, 114 00:05:08,560 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 2: especially their defense second in the NFL and opponent yards 115 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 2: per play and seventh in opponent yards per carry, And 116 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 2: we know that's huge. If you want to beat the Ravens, 117 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 2: you have to be able to stop the run, and 118 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 2: the Bengals run defense has been pretty solid this year. 119 00:05:22,320 --> 00:05:25,160 Speaker 2: Ravens defense hasn't been as good as people expected, especially 120 00:05:25,200 --> 00:05:28,200 Speaker 2: in their secondary twenty first and opponent yards per past tempt. 121 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:29,839 Speaker 2: I expect Joe Burrow to have a big day. So 122 00:05:30,160 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: my heat check game, my money line upset pick Bengals 123 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 2: plus two twenty fives. 124 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: The Ravens, well, I think, like I'm not gonna take 125 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,200 Speaker 1: it with you Okay, I'm gonna let you be as 126 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: hot as impossilic to kiss this up now. You obviously 127 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:44,280 Speaker 1: like the six and a half, as you mentioned, which 128 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:45,640 Speaker 1: is where it is, by the way, consensus right now, 129 00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 1: six and a half. I'm a little worried just about 130 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 1: how good the Ravens are at home. They're just this 131 00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:53,560 Speaker 1: absolutely dominant on the road, like obviously the odds wouldn't 132 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 1: be as good, of course, but I do think that 133 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: the Bengals are a much much better team than I 134 00:05:58,839 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: still think even the public gives them credit for their defense. 135 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,839 Speaker 1: Has really surprised me with how well they've played. Burrow again, 136 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: I expected to struggle early on in the season because 137 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 1: I thought figured, you know, coming back from the injury, 138 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 1: both physically and mentally, he would be a little slow, 139 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: but he has been great. Jamar Chase has been elite 140 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 1: out there, and the Ravens do have holes. I think 141 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: I might be a little gun shy just because of 142 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,800 Speaker 1: I was actually on the Chargers last week against them, 143 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 1: and they just absolutely destroyed them. So you realistically you 144 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 1: think the Bengals are gonna walk out of here winners. 145 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 2: I like Bengals plus six and a half. Obviously a 146 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 2: lot better if you just want to take a bet 147 00:06:35,960 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 2: that's gonna win. I think I Bengals and the points 148 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,479 Speaker 2: is a great bet. But like I said, I've been 149 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,760 Speaker 2: hitting my money line underdog picks this so far this year. 150 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 2: It's a heat check. It's a little bit like, yeah 151 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:49,120 Speaker 2: what I am, But I mean divisional game as well. 152 00:06:49,160 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 2: I think it's gonna be closed. I think the Bengals 153 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 2: can win this. Also two weeks when the Bengals lost 154 00:06:53,120 --> 00:06:55,600 Speaker 2: to the Packers in overtime, I still walked away like 155 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: more impressed with the Bengals even though they lost than 156 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:59,120 Speaker 2: what I was before that game. 157 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: So a hundred and they obviously could have easily won 158 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:05,440 Speaker 1: that game, of course, given all the field goal issues 159 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: and everything like that. But I do think that the 160 00:07:08,760 --> 00:07:11,840 Speaker 1: divisional game aspect of it does weigh certainly in your 161 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,960 Speaker 1: favorite because every divisional game just scares the crap out 162 00:07:14,960 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: of you because you just have no idea. The teams 163 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 1: know each other well. Obviously, we know exactly what Baltimore 164 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 1: is going to do. It's really just about whether or 165 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 1: not they can start them. Okay, I'm going to take 166 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: a pick that I really I don't like taking those 167 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:28,560 Speaker 1: type of pick okay, so feel free. I want to 168 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 1: know which side you're on. I'm taking a road favorite, 169 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: which is don't love it. It's the Panthers lanth three 170 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: to the Giants. For me, there are just a lot 171 00:07:38,040 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: of things working against the Giants in this game. First Off, 172 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: they're just generally speaking terrible at home own three this year, 173 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: nine and twenty six at Medlife since twenty seventeen. Nobody 174 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,480 Speaker 1: is showing up to these games. The fans when they do, 175 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: they're pretty much just booing. So it's a road game 176 00:07:53,080 --> 00:07:54,800 Speaker 1: for Carolina because they're away from home, but it's not 177 00:07:54,840 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: exactly like they're walking into any sort of hostile environment. Second, 178 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,240 Speaker 1: the Giants offensive line is really in terrible shape. They 179 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: actually played pretty well early on the season, better than 180 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 1: I expected them to play, but you saw what happened 181 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:08,480 Speaker 1: against the Rams. A lot of that is Andrew Thomas, 182 00:08:08,560 --> 00:08:10,559 Speaker 1: who also was one of the key cogs and playing 183 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 1: better than I expected him to play, but he is 184 00:08:12,960 --> 00:08:15,760 Speaker 1: now out for this game. And on ir and again, 185 00:08:15,840 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 1: it's it's not just the quality of their alignment at 186 00:08:18,560 --> 00:08:21,120 Speaker 1: this point, it's the consistency in the fact that they're 187 00:08:21,160 --> 00:08:23,320 Speaker 1: constantly shuffling guys in and out because they're getting nicked 188 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 1: up and they're moving guys from one position to another. 189 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,240 Speaker 1: It's really difficult to play with an offensive line, and 190 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,400 Speaker 1: that's huge for someone like Daniel Jones, who's just much 191 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: worse when he is pressured. Fifty four percent completion percentage 192 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,640 Speaker 1: when he's under pressure. And the Panthers, even on a 193 00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:39,040 Speaker 1: bad day, get pressure like their fourth and pressure. Right 194 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: they're one of the better teams there. So against this 195 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: offensive line with all, by the way, the injuries the 196 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: playmakers offensively, like I don't expect seko On Barkley, I 197 00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: don't expect Darius Tony, and I don't expect Kenni Galladay 198 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:52,679 Speaker 1: to play at this point. So they're really down a 199 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: lot of AMMO here on offense. So I think they're 200 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 1: going to struggle to score. And the Panthers, by the way, 201 00:08:57,280 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 1: have a good defense. I know they had the JC 202 00:08:59,000 --> 00:09:01,439 Speaker 1: Horn injury. Keith Taylor has subbed in pretty well, so 203 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:05,280 Speaker 1: J Henderson is getting healthier. I don't think Stefan Gilmore 204 00:09:05,320 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: is gonna be up for this game, but regardless, they 205 00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 1: are playing pretty well defensively anyway, and offensively. I didn't 206 00:09:10,920 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: like the spot for them last week again I said 207 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: I took the Vikings Ian because of the pressure. That's 208 00:09:15,440 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 1: a big thing. I think with Sam Darnold, which I 209 00:09:17,160 --> 00:09:19,920 Speaker 1: know very well having watched him for years, that is 210 00:09:19,920 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 1: not where the Giants shine. The Giants do not get 211 00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 1: a ton of pressure. So I think that's pretty good 212 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,040 Speaker 1: as to what we're gonna see. And as well, I 213 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,679 Speaker 1: think you heard them talk about the fact that they're 214 00:09:27,679 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: gonna run the ball here a little more. Take some 215 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: pressure off Donald. That is good. The Giants are twenty 216 00:09:32,080 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 1: seventh in DVA against the run. This game just kind 217 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 1: of sets up well for me for the Panthers. They 218 00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: need to win. They don't have to take chances to 219 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: get it. You gotta banged up Giants team in dis array. 220 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: So seventy percent ian Panthers laying three on the road 221 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,040 Speaker 1: to the Giants, tell me what you're thinking. 222 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, to be honest, out of all the games this week, 223 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:53,840 Speaker 2: the Giants Panthers game is the one game where, like 224 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,199 Speaker 2: I wish I wasn't betting on every single NFL game, 225 00:09:56,200 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: because really pass on this game. I think this is 226 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 2: the toughest game, toughest game on the board this week 227 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 2: in my opinion, and any what concerns me is number one, 228 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 2: the injuries. But what concerns me with the Panthers when 229 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 2: you look at their stats compared to the first three 230 00:10:11,280 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 2: games compared to the last three games, just night and day. So, like, 231 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:16,439 Speaker 2: what version, in my opinion, like, what version of the 232 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 2: Panthers team is for real? Are they more like the 233 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:19,920 Speaker 2: team they played like in the first three weeks or 234 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: are they more like the team that we saw the 235 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 2: last three weeks. Anytime that there was a toss up game, 236 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:28,040 Speaker 2: in my opinion, which I think this is, I end 237 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: up just taking the team that's getting the points. So 238 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:32,640 Speaker 2: I am on the Giants. But like I said, I 239 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 2: think it's it's my least favorite bet of the week. 240 00:10:34,679 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 2: I cannot argue against someone who's on the Panthers. I 241 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 2: went back and forth for a while trying to decide 242 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 2: who to bet on in this game. But it's tough. 243 00:10:42,320 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 2: But I mean, you made a couple of really good points. 244 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,840 Speaker 2: Giants eight twenty one and one against the spread their 245 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 2: last thirty home games, We're just terrible, terrible, terrible. Daniel 246 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 2: Daniel Jones is terrible at home compared to on the road, 247 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:57,640 Speaker 2: So those things are certainly going in the Panthers favor. 248 00:10:57,760 --> 00:10:59,960 Speaker 2: So I am on the Giants, but I will not 249 00:11:00,120 --> 00:11:02,640 Speaker 2: I will not argue too much against the Panthers pick. 250 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: So what's funny is that I think that your point 251 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: of like, well, which Panthers team are we going to see? 252 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:08,719 Speaker 1: I think you're going to see the version of the 253 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 1: Panthers team that plays the crappy opponent, which is what 254 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: we saw in the first three games. Now that the 255 00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:15,880 Speaker 1: Saints weren't terrible, but the Saints aren't that good or 256 00:11:15,880 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: anything like that. The Jets in Houston versus what you 257 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: see in the next three games, which is Dallas Philadelphia, 258 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: which their defense played fine. By the way, they easily 259 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,079 Speaker 1: could have won that game. But the Philadelphia defense is 260 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,120 Speaker 1: much stronger, and we'll talk about that maybe in a 261 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: little bit. And I think people give them credit for 262 00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:33,200 Speaker 1: and then Minnesota to me honestly, offensively, I think this 263 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:34,560 Speaker 1: is a game first of all, they have to win 264 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 1: because they've got to get back on track number one. 265 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,320 Speaker 1: And I think the Giants them I think sometimes like 266 00:11:39,360 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: I don't have a model. I admit, like I don't 267 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: have a model that I plug in and I come 268 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:44,320 Speaker 1: up with the appropriate spread. I know a lot of 269 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: you know, professional gamblerss and everything like that. But I 270 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 1: think this is just a spot right now where there 271 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,680 Speaker 1: are some things of regardless of sort of how it 272 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:53,800 Speaker 1: might look on the service level, you just dig deep 273 00:11:53,840 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 1: into this Giants team. They look broken right now, and 274 00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:00,320 Speaker 1: whether it's the constant injuries or whatever it is, I mean, 275 00:12:00,559 --> 00:12:03,840 Speaker 1: they're just absolutely devastated at this point. I don't think 276 00:12:03,880 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: they really have at this point that the mental you know, 277 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: I almost say mental wherewithal but just where they are 278 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: right now to be able to come in here and 279 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,160 Speaker 1: put it against the team that is desperate for a win. 280 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: And again, I think the fact that they're going to 281 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: be able to be Panthers, to be able to take 282 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:22,760 Speaker 1: such like a non risky game, essentially a safe game 283 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: plan here, I think leads of their favorite But that's fine. 284 00:12:25,400 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: You don't even want to bet it. You did have 285 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:28,679 Speaker 1: to bet it, and you bet against me. So this 286 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 1: is where the irresistible force meets the immovable object with 287 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: this one. All right, get to your next game? What 288 00:12:33,400 --> 00:12:33,840 Speaker 1: do you want? 289 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 2: All right? So I'll go I'll go my total, my 290 00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: favorite total for the week here and I'm gonna go 291 00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 2: Jets Patriots under forty two and a half is what 292 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:45,880 Speaker 2: I got to that I think this is just a spot. 293 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,959 Speaker 2: You can't overthink it. They already played once this season. 294 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 2: I took the under in that game and finished with 295 00:12:51,360 --> 00:12:53,520 Speaker 2: a total of thirty one points. Score of that game. 296 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,559 Speaker 2: I mean, it's two bad offenses and two good defenses. 297 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 2: So yards per play Patriots are twenty third, Jets are 298 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:04,079 Speaker 2: thirty first, red zone offense Patriots thirtieth, Jets twenty eighth, 299 00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 2: points per game Patriots twenty fourth, Jets dead last. And 300 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: then the defensive side of those stats, Patriots thirteenth, fifth 301 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:16,439 Speaker 2: and ninth, Jets ninth, second and eighteenth. Interesting fact, they're 302 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: about the Jets second and red zone defense so far 303 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,199 Speaker 2: this NFL season, which I did not expect before looking 304 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 2: into those numbers. Yeah, and obviously red zone defense is huge. 305 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 2: If we're betting on an under, you want those drives 306 00:13:27,880 --> 00:13:30,520 Speaker 2: to end in field goals, not in touchdowns. So fifth 307 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:32,719 Speaker 2: and second in red zone defense makes me quite a 308 00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:35,920 Speaker 2: bit more confident. Also, Bill Belichick has been one of 309 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,520 Speaker 2: the most conservative coaches in the NFL so far the 310 00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:41,280 Speaker 2: season with his play calling. He's not taking a whole 311 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:44,600 Speaker 2: lot of shots downfield, not going forward on fourth down, 312 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 2: basically whatsoever the Jets offense has has I apologize because 313 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 2: I know you're a jew. Non existing Yeah, I got 314 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 2: just non existing against decent defenses so far the season. So, 315 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:02,360 Speaker 2: like I said first meeting in in thirty one points, 316 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: it's a bit of a low total forty two and 317 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:05,920 Speaker 2: a half, which does scare me a little bit. Sure, 318 00:14:05,920 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 2: I think when you look at the numbers, I think 319 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:08,640 Speaker 2: it's the only play you can make in this game. 320 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: Ah, that's the correct pick. And I would have taken 321 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: it as well if not for you, as I look 322 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: the way we've worked since the first game, where I 323 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: felt like I got the short end of the stick 324 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 1: because I didn't get Seawan's picks the first week pardon me, 325 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 1: where I didn't get Shawn's picks and events and he 326 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: picked my favorite game of the week, and I would 327 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: sort of like, all right, I'll scramble and pick another one. 328 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 1: I now get our guests picks in advance, just so 329 00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: I can know exactly what they are. And this I 330 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: immediately emailed back Ian and I was like, Ah, that 331 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 1: was definitely a pick I was eyeing as well. Yes, 332 00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 1: all the reasons that you said, I think this is 333 00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: absolutely a game that is just going to lean heavily 334 00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: towards the ender. It again, there are a lot of 335 00:14:44,560 --> 00:14:48,120 Speaker 1: these load totals, and I think better first of all, better' 336 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: is like overs anyway, like casual betters, because you want 337 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: to root for something then again something. And I think 338 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: these low totals generally scare betters off regardless. But I 339 00:14:57,160 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 1: really think there are a lot of teams that you 340 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: can go. I mean again, I picked the Broncos under 341 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 1: for the first like three or four weeks. I think 342 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,480 Speaker 1: that's been a good spot generally speaking. I have it 343 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,280 Speaker 1: as well tonight so people will know when they listen. 344 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:11,000 Speaker 1: So I hope not not in the under. I've teased 345 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: the under up. Just overitess, Okay, I am going to 346 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: stick with your least favorite game. Because you went with 347 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,320 Speaker 1: the over under, I will also go with an over under. 348 00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:20,640 Speaker 1: I will stick in this Panthers Giants game, which is 349 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: very funny to me because it's the game. You're like, man, 350 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 1: the one game out of the whole year that I 351 00:15:25,520 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: need to get away from is this game. And I'm like, sweet, 352 00:15:27,480 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 1: let me bet all my money on this game. And 353 00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:32,360 Speaker 1: it is so the total right now, the consensus total 354 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,720 Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com is forty three. There are some 355 00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: forty three and a half's out there. It's actually forty 356 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 1: two and a half at my book DraftKings, but the 357 00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:40,720 Speaker 1: consensus line is forty three. That's where most books are, 358 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,880 Speaker 1: and I am going the under, and it is basically 359 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: for all the reasons I explained before. I think the 360 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 1: Giants are going to really struggle to put up points here. 361 00:15:48,440 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 1: You know, whatever they are able to do, you know, defensively, 362 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:54,120 Speaker 1: we'll talk about that in the second. Offensively, it's just 363 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 1: very difficult to see. I think for this to go over, 364 00:15:56,480 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: you're going to need some sort of defensive score here 365 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: from the Panthers are something flukey, which again always the 366 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 1: worry when you have this high low of total and everything. 367 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 1: But I do think again with their offensive line injuries, 368 00:16:08,800 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 1: with how few playmakers they have, with how bad Daniel 369 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 1: Jones plays at home generally speaking, with how Baddie is 370 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,840 Speaker 1: especially under pressure, it just really strikes me as a 371 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: game that they're not going to put up a lot 372 00:16:20,240 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 1: of points. And conversely, again this is not me buying 373 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: into Sam Darnold. They're buying into the Panthers' offense. What 374 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 1: This is buying into is Matt rule, understanding that they 375 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 1: have to win a game, and the way to do 376 00:16:31,720 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: that is to run the ball a ton against a 377 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 1: defense that struggles to stop the run. And when you 378 00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 1: do that, when you run the ball, the clock keeps running. 379 00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 1: They're in no hurry to really get here. So I 380 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: think this is another game where the game script sets 381 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 1: up two teams that are not going to put up 382 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: a ton of points. One of the teams that probably 383 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: will win is going to run the ball a ton, 384 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,040 Speaker 1: especially when I think they are leading in this game, 385 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:55,800 Speaker 1: as I expect them to win, and then they want 386 00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:58,160 Speaker 1: to run out the clock. To me, it screams under 387 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 1: as a low scoring game. So I imagine you are avoiding 388 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 1: this game entirely regardless of the over under. But I'm 389 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 1: gonna go under here for under forty three is the 390 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 1: official play for my second pick. 391 00:17:08,920 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was deciding between for this game. I was 392 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,240 Speaker 2: deciding between the Giants or the under. So I agree 393 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,440 Speaker 2: with you on the on the on the total play, 394 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 2: I would not be going over in this game whatsoever, 395 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:19,880 Speaker 2: based on how these two teams have looked so far 396 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 2: this season. So yeah, I'm not playing the under. But 397 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,920 Speaker 2: like I said, I was deciding between Giants and the 398 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:27,520 Speaker 2: points in the under. I ended up going with the 399 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 2: Giants on this game. 400 00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 1: But I like the pick, all right, I will accept that. 401 00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 1: Then let's get to your third pick. Here is it 402 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: a spread? Did you go one, two three with each 403 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: the different one money line over under and then spread? 404 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 2: Yep? So yeah, my favorite, my favorite favorite on the spread. 405 00:17:42,920 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 2: So usually I like to avoid double digit spreads, but 406 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 2: this is one that I actually really like this week, 407 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,399 Speaker 2: and it's the Bucks over the Bears. I go to 408 00:17:51,440 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 2: the twelve and a half and it's just a bad 409 00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 2: stylistic matchup for the Bears offense and a fantastic style 410 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 2: listic matchup for the Bucks offense. So fifty two point 411 00:18:03,840 --> 00:18:06,719 Speaker 2: four percent of the offensive yards gained by the Bears 412 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 2: so far this season have come on the ground, which 413 00:18:09,520 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 2: is by far the most mount almost ten percent more 414 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:14,760 Speaker 2: than any other team. So they get like the majority 415 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:16,360 Speaker 2: of their yards come on the ground, and now they're 416 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,800 Speaker 2: facing a Bucks defense that is one of the best 417 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 2: run defenses in the NFL, second in the NFL and 418 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 2: opponent yards per carry at three point four and first 419 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 2: in the NFL and opponent rushing yards per game, only 420 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 2: allowing fifty four point eight rushing yards per game. So 421 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 2: if they're limiting teams on the ground, I don't know 422 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 2: how the Bears are gonna be able to move the 423 00:18:33,440 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 2: ball against them. And then the opposite is true for 424 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 2: the Tampa Bay offense. Seventy nine point nine to seven 425 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 2: percent of the Bucks offensive yards come through the air. 426 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:44,920 Speaker 2: That's the most in the NFL. And now they're facing 427 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,960 Speaker 2: a Bears defense whose weakness is the secondary they rank 428 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: nineteenth in the NFL and opponent yards per pass attempt. So, 429 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,640 Speaker 2: like I said, I don't love Benning double digit favorites 430 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,879 Speaker 2: in the NFL, but this is one that I'm going 431 00:18:57,960 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 2: to back for sure because it's just styles make fights. 432 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:05,000 Speaker 2: That's something that's something I kind of hold truth in 433 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 2: most sports, and I think this is just a terrible 434 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:09,439 Speaker 2: stylistic matchup for the Bears. 435 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 1: Yeah, so it is twelve and a half at the 436 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 1: consensus line. It is twelve. Oddly enough, at my book DraftKings, 437 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 1: I probably can't go there just because, like you, I 438 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,600 Speaker 1: just despise the giant spreads. If I did have to 439 00:19:21,600 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 1: go one place, I think I would take the blocks. 440 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,600 Speaker 1: And I was a little ambivalent on it early in 441 00:19:25,640 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: the year and early in the week. Pardon me, I 442 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: think really the issue is for me, You're right, they're 443 00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:30,919 Speaker 1: not going to be able to run the ball. By 444 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 1: the way, Khalil Herbert is also banged up. We don't 445 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:34,600 Speaker 1: know whether or not Damian Williams is even coming off 446 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: the COVID list. So even if they wanted to run 447 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:38,639 Speaker 1: the ball, who knows if they could. But you're going 448 00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,879 Speaker 1: to have to have Justin Fields open it up and 449 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,639 Speaker 1: throw the ball here against a pretty decimated secondary that 450 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: can certainly be beaten. But do we trust Justin Fields 451 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: to be able to do that? Is the question. I mean, 452 00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 1: when you can beat a team one way and the 453 00:19:51,680 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 1: person who's in charge of beating them that way has 454 00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,160 Speaker 1: not impressed the entire season, it is difficult to see 455 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 1: them covering this spread. Now we do. Antony Brown, I 456 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: think this practice again today, so we'll see whether or 457 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: not he plays. But again, the Bucks are off the 458 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: Mini bi right because you know, they played on Thursday, 459 00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 1: so they have a little extra time to prepare. So 460 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,000 Speaker 1: I think, like you, if I were in your position 461 00:20:11,040 --> 00:20:13,720 Speaker 1: I was forced to bet every single game, I would 462 00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,879 Speaker 1: take the Bucks. But it's a. I'm leery of the giant. 463 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 1: You know, there's so many giant spreads right now this 464 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 1: week are out of curiosity. We'll get there. Actually, we'll 465 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,400 Speaker 1: get there later. So I want to know what you're 466 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 1: doing with all the other giant spreads. But I'm going 467 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,280 Speaker 1: to take a Gamian. I feel confident you're on the 468 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,480 Speaker 1: you have taken the other side of this, okay, so 469 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: we'll see about this one. I am going to take 470 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 1: the Eagles getting three points from the Raiders. 471 00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:35,439 Speaker 2: Now. 472 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: When I looked at this on Monday and I opened 473 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: it up, I said, I'm pretty sure I'm going to 474 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,159 Speaker 1: wind up taking the Raiders because it felt like the 475 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: right side. And then I dug into it a little bit, 476 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 1: and I think that the Eagles are not only going 477 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: to cover the spread, but if I had more intestinal fortitude, 478 00:20:51,840 --> 00:20:53,320 Speaker 1: I would take them on the money line because I 479 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: do think they wind up pulling this one out. I 480 00:20:55,440 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: cannot quit the Eagles. I have tried. I don't know 481 00:20:57,880 --> 00:20:59,720 Speaker 1: why I continue to back them, but I am going 482 00:20:59,760 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 1: to do it. But it's also sort of a cell 483 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: high spot for the Raiders. Right we had all these questions, 484 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 1: how are the Raiders gonna respond? After the whole John 485 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:09,320 Speaker 1: Gruden thing, and they responded incredibly and it was one 486 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:10,520 Speaker 1: of two ways it can go, and the way it 487 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,520 Speaker 1: went was, Okay, we've got this giant weight lifted off 488 00:21:12,560 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: our shoulder now, and they put up a tremendous effort there. 489 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: But I think this is actually a good matchup here, 490 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 1: especially for the Eagles defense, because what you've got is 491 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,480 Speaker 1: the Raiders that what do they really make their money on. Offensively, 492 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 1: it's the explosive place, right like, that's what they do. 493 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 1: They lead the league in pass plays of twenty plus 494 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,520 Speaker 1: yards with thirty two overall. But the Eagles converse, they 495 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: are basically at the opposite end of the spectrum. They 496 00:21:37,000 --> 00:21:39,880 Speaker 1: absolutely limit those plays. That's what their defense is almost 497 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 1: designed to do. And you know, even though they have 498 00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:47,160 Speaker 1: played the Bucks and the Cowboys and the Chiefs, they've 499 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:50,880 Speaker 1: allowed just eleven pass plays of twenty plus yards. So 500 00:21:51,280 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: it is something where basically the Raiders' strength meets the 501 00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,959 Speaker 1: exact strength of the Eagles defense. The Raiders can't really 502 00:21:58,040 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 1: run the ball. Their offensive line is bad. They're averaging 503 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,120 Speaker 1: thirty three point four yards per carry. Pardon me. They 504 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:07,199 Speaker 1: twenty eighth in rush rushing DVA offensively, and the Eagles 505 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: defensive line is very good and Derek Carr really there 506 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,520 Speaker 1: are two ways there at Car succeeds when you watch 507 00:22:12,600 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 1: him play. Number one, there is no pressure on him 508 00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:16,960 Speaker 1: and he's able to have time and survey the field. 509 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:18,920 Speaker 1: Are number two, he gets blitzed. Pretty good against the 510 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: blitz but he is not good as most quarterbacks when 511 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: you're able to get pressure on him without blitzing. That 512 00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:27,160 Speaker 1: is something the Eagles do very very well. So offensively 513 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:29,000 Speaker 1: at the very least, I don't expect the Raiders to 514 00:22:29,040 --> 00:22:31,800 Speaker 1: have a huge game for the Eagles offensively. Like the Bucks, 515 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,960 Speaker 1: they're coming off a mini bi I think they finally 516 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 1: found a little bit of something here with Miles Sanders, 517 00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:39,400 Speaker 1: which everybody in the world. I mean, you have their 518 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:42,600 Speaker 1: fans derisively cheering when they finally gave Sanders a carry, 519 00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:44,159 Speaker 1: and they don't do it on a good day. They 520 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: weren't doing it against the Bucks. But Sanders has played 521 00:22:46,600 --> 00:22:49,040 Speaker 1: well when he's gotten the work. He played well against 522 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: the Bucks when he got the work. You can attack 523 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,600 Speaker 1: the Raiders a little bit more here on the ground. 524 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 1: Their secondary is also a little banged up. The Philadelphia 525 00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,480 Speaker 1: is getting Dallas Goddard back now he's been activated off 526 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:02,040 Speaker 1: the COVID lit Sirianna's got to get something going. Okay, 527 00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:04,720 Speaker 1: they're tuned four. They look stagnant on offense, is getting 528 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 1: a lot of heat. I think they're going to take 529 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,679 Speaker 1: this week to design a game plan. It's basically a 530 00:23:08,760 --> 00:23:10,800 Speaker 1: cell high spot here on the Raiders as well, So 531 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:12,880 Speaker 1: I don't I don't hit the under either. It's forty 532 00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,240 Speaker 1: nine and a half for me, but my official pick 533 00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 1: is going to be the Eagles getting three points against 534 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 1: the Raiders in Las Vegas. Tell me you're on the 535 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 1: other side. 536 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 2: No, So we're actually in agreement on this game. Now, 537 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,800 Speaker 2: I didn't I didn't back the Eagles though, but if 538 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 2: I was going to take the spread out, I would 539 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,440 Speaker 2: have taken the Eagles. But I did take the bet 540 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 2: that you just mentioned, which is the under. So I'm 541 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 2: I'm on the under in this game. I agree with 542 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:37,320 Speaker 2: a lot of the points that you just that you 543 00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:40,200 Speaker 2: just made two underrated defenses. Eagles are third in the 544 00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,639 Speaker 2: NFL and pony yards per play. Vegas is fifth in 545 00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:45,480 Speaker 2: the NFL and the pony yards per play. Both teams 546 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 2: are good against the pass. The reason why I didn't 547 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 2: take the Eagles and why they scared me a little bit, 548 00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:55,240 Speaker 2: and you kind of alluded to it there you mentioned it, 549 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 2: Eagle's very good at running the ball, but they kind 550 00:23:57,400 --> 00:24:00,760 Speaker 2: of refuse to do it for their tenth and like 551 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 2: passing play percentage, like they're just passing the ball like 552 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:07,400 Speaker 2: in the upper third of the NFL, but yet their 553 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,320 Speaker 2: second in the NFL in yards per carry. Like they're 554 00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 2: very good, very effective at running the ball, but they 555 00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,320 Speaker 2: just don't do it that much, which makes no sense 556 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 2: to me, especially when your quarterback is Jalen Hurts, like, 557 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 2: run the ball like, I don't know. I don't know 558 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 2: what they're doing. They haven't shown me yet that they're 559 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,560 Speaker 2: willing to do it, and until they are, I'm going 560 00:24:25,600 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 2: to stop betting on them. Because actually, you mentioned at 561 00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,560 Speaker 2: the start of your pick two about how much you've 562 00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 2: been betting on the Eagles. This is actually the first 563 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 2: week I haven't taken the Eagles on the spread or 564 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 2: money line, so I've been betting on the Eagles almost 565 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 2: every week as well. But I want to see them 566 00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:41,119 Speaker 2: start running the ball more, so I am going to 567 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 2: take the under instead. I think it's just two underrated 568 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 2: defenses well, I saw the total like I would have 569 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,280 Speaker 2: said it like forty six for me too. 570 00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, And to be fair, I wanted another spread bed 571 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:56,119 Speaker 1: here anyway, just because I want to get into it. 572 00:24:56,160 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: And I did like the Eagles when I got into it, 573 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 1: and then I checked what the total was, and when 574 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 1: it was forty nine, I was like, wait, what so 575 00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,080 Speaker 1: really that's probably almost a better play, But you know 576 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: what doing in game teaser, then tease the total up 577 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 1: and take the under, and then tease the spread up 578 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,360 Speaker 1: for me for the Eagles, And yeah, look the Eagles 579 00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: they wound up covering the spread despite how bad they 580 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: looked against the Bucks on Thursday. But also I do 581 00:25:18,480 --> 00:25:20,920 Speaker 1: think I don't want to do the foulacity for rational coaching, 582 00:25:20,960 --> 00:25:22,920 Speaker 1: but I think at this point, like you know, if 583 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 1: you continue to do this, if you're Nick Siriani and 584 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,680 Speaker 1: you continue to run this offense through Jalen Hurts passing 585 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 1: the ball and they continue to lose like this, that's 586 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,359 Speaker 1: just devastating for you as a coach, as a rookie coach, 587 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:37,360 Speaker 1: when you have someone like Miles Sanders and they run 588 00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: the ball pretty effectively. When they do so, they came out, 589 00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: you know, Shane Seken they came out. They basically like, 590 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 1: we got to run the ball a little bit more here, 591 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,159 Speaker 1: So I do think that this is a spot for 592 00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: them to do that. So all right, let's recaut the 593 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,240 Speaker 1: picks very quickly. You're taking the Bengals on the money 594 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,160 Speaker 1: line against the Ravens at plus two point thirty. That's dropping, 595 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: by the way, I see a couple of books now 596 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: dropping it, So get on it now if you like that. 597 00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:58,719 Speaker 1: You're taking the Jets and the Patriots under forty two 598 00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 1: and a half, a pick that I like very much 599 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 1: as well, and the Bucks playing twelve and a half 600 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,800 Speaker 1: to the Bears. I'm taking the Panthers laying three to 601 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,439 Speaker 1: the Giants. I'm also taking the under forty three in 602 00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,800 Speaker 1: that same game, and I'm also taking the Eagles getting 603 00:26:10,840 --> 00:26:14,080 Speaker 1: three in Las Vegas. Let's run through the remaining spreads 604 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,600 Speaker 1: that we haven't touchdown, now, people, you know what I'm 605 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,119 Speaker 1: gonna actually ask it people listening to this. It'll drop, 606 00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: I'm sure before the Thursday night game, but just in 607 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,119 Speaker 1: case afterwards, so we can have our record. Where did 608 00:26:24,160 --> 00:26:26,120 Speaker 1: you go here with the Broncos and the Browns? Since 609 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:27,639 Speaker 1: you have to pick every game right now, The spread, 610 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:28,639 Speaker 1: by the way, is at one and a half. I 611 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,080 Speaker 1: don't know if you were able to get it early 612 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: enough at the you know, the the Broncos getting three 613 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: and a half. 614 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:36,639 Speaker 2: Originally, I'm on the Browns, so I lock in my 615 00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 2: bets Wednesday night. So did already drop down to one 616 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 2: and a half. 617 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:40,159 Speaker 1: Okay. 618 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,760 Speaker 2: I'm a big underreact guy when it comes to injury news, 619 00:26:43,800 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 2: So anytime you know, a player comes out like Baker 620 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,639 Speaker 2: Mayfield in this game, everyone's gonna jump on the Broncos. 621 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 2: I like to underreact to the news and stick with 622 00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,479 Speaker 2: that team. I did it last week. Russell Wilson got 623 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 2: ruled out obviously, the sure Gino Smith got put in. 624 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 2: Every everyone was betting against the Seahawks, they went with 625 00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:05,760 Speaker 2: the Steelers. I underreacted to it. I took the Seahawks 626 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 2: on the spread and a work though for me. So yeah, 627 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:11,080 Speaker 2: I'm sticking with the Browns here minus one and a half. 628 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 2: I just think the offensive line is going to be 629 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 2: able to get the job done. Denver's dead last the 630 00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 2: NFL and third down conversion percentage, which is a bad 631 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 2: sign for their offense. I think the Browns get it 632 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 2: done and case Keenum's a very capable backup. 633 00:27:23,200 --> 00:27:25,760 Speaker 1: Oh yes, case Kinon's won the better backup quarterbacks only 634 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:28,400 Speaker 1: he could probably start for one or two teams here 635 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,359 Speaker 1: in the NFL. I am, I'm going to say this 636 00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,160 Speaker 1: is a game that only betters and fantasy players can 637 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 1: really love. But let's go to the Packers at home 638 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,000 Speaker 1: right now, laying seven and a half. There are some 639 00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:41,920 Speaker 1: eight and a half's actually out there, so it's wild 640 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,440 Speaker 1: a little bit here. The Packers at home, length seven 641 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 1: and a half to Washington. 642 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,720 Speaker 2: I'm taking Washington and the points in this one. I 643 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:55,080 Speaker 2: think people are overvaluing the Packers, especially their offense. Everyone's 644 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,880 Speaker 2: looking at Aaron Rodgers, you know, reigning MVP. They're eighteenth 645 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,439 Speaker 2: in yards per play, only slightly better than Wall at 646 00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:04,439 Speaker 2: twenty first fourteenth and third down conversion percentage, twenty second, 647 00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 2: red zone offense, fifteenth in yards per carry, So statistically 648 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,160 Speaker 2: they're an average offense and defensively, fun little fact about them, 649 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:14,480 Speaker 2: dead last and red zone defense. Every single time an 650 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 2: opponent has gone into the red zone this year, they've 651 00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 2: scored a touchdown fifteen red zone trips fifteen touchdowns. That's 652 00:28:21,080 --> 00:28:23,360 Speaker 2: not a good sign. I like Washington in the points. 653 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 1: All right, we already know you like the Bengals getting 654 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:27,159 Speaker 1: the six and a half, certainly from the Ravens as 655 00:28:27,200 --> 00:28:30,280 Speaker 1: you mentioned. How about your Falcons traveling to Miami off 656 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,399 Speaker 1: a bye and getting two and a half points. No, 657 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:34,119 Speaker 1: giving to a half points. I'm so sorry giving to 658 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:34,760 Speaker 1: and a half points. 659 00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to back my Falcons here. I'm starting 660 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,000 Speaker 2: to buy in on them a little bit, to be 661 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:42,240 Speaker 2: completely honest. Dolphins, Panthers, Saints next three weeks. I've bought 662 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: in on the fact they're gonna be five and three 663 00:28:43,880 --> 00:28:45,480 Speaker 2: and in the hunt for wild card spot. But I 664 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,200 Speaker 2: think the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL 665 00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 2: quite frankly. And Falcons right now eighth in red zone offense, 666 00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:52,440 Speaker 2: fifth and third down conversion percentage. I think that's a 667 00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 2: good sign of this offense. I think Arthur Smith is 668 00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 2: kind of coming into his own with his play calling, 669 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 2: Matt Ryan a little bit more comfortable to the passable game. 670 00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 2: So I'm gonna lay the points with the Falcons. 671 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, the offense is definitely playing a little better and 672 00:29:04,120 --> 00:29:06,640 Speaker 1: the Dolphins are just in disarray right now. Also, I 673 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,040 Speaker 1: don't know how you don't take the buy after London, 674 00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,440 Speaker 1: because I believe they offer every team that after London 675 00:29:11,480 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 1: and you can't take the buy, and they opted not 676 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 1: to terrible. There were obviously all the rumors about the 677 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:19,280 Speaker 1: Shaun Watson you know yesterday, so that team is just tough. 678 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: And even if the secondary gets healthier with Zaman Howard 679 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:24,240 Speaker 1: and Barne Jones, like, I can't really trust them. So 680 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,680 Speaker 1: I am with you. Originally, when I first looked at it, 681 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 1: I was like, I think the doll you know, they're 682 00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: not quite that bad, but I do trust a little 683 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,200 Speaker 1: bit more of the Falcons coming off the buy. How 684 00:29:33,240 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 1: about the Jets are visiting New England, they are getting seven. 685 00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 2: That was the under that I'm on. I think if 686 00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 2: I go with the spread, I think i'd have to 687 00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 2: take Jets in the points because their defense is extremely underrated. 688 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 2: Like I said earlier, second red zone defense. So I 689 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,080 Speaker 2: would take the Jets and the points. But that's my under. 690 00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a complete I know you're on the ender, 691 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:55,600 Speaker 1: of course, but I would avoid. I can't take this 692 00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 1: bread like I just it's a terrible thing. I don't 693 00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 1: mac Jones when you were laying a touchdown is just 694 00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 1: not so thing I'm comfortable doing. Despite the fact that 695 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:05,160 Speaker 1: he has played pretty well, and you're hopeful that the 696 00:30:05,200 --> 00:30:07,240 Speaker 1: Jets off the buy sort of get something going here. 697 00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:09,480 Speaker 1: But it's a tough one, this one. I'm interested to 698 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,680 Speaker 1: hear which way you went. The Chiefs are visiting the Titans. 699 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 1: The Chiefs are laying five. What'd you do with that one? 700 00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 2: I just took the over. I mean, flip a coin 701 00:30:18,560 --> 00:30:20,640 Speaker 2: if you're gonna go to spread. Both these teams just 702 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,280 Speaker 2: just some of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. 703 00:30:23,320 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 2: The total totals what up to, like fifty seven or something. 704 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, fifty seven, yep. 705 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,120 Speaker 2: I mean that's an it's insanely high total. But I 706 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 2: can't back either team based on their defense. I mean 707 00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,040 Speaker 2: the Chiefs laying points, I mean their defense is literally 708 00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:38,400 Speaker 2: the worst in the NFL right now, So I can't lay. 709 00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 2: I can't lay points. I don't care who's their quarterback, 710 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 2: I don't care how good their offense is. And then 711 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:45,080 Speaker 2: the Titans, I mean, their defense is almost as bad 712 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:47,440 Speaker 2: as the chief So on the spread, flip a coin, 713 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 2: I guess the Chiefs have the better offense. Both defenses stink. 714 00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:52,680 Speaker 2: I'm just gonna take the over and roof some points. 715 00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:55,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, It's a terrible game to bet, really, and it's 716 00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 1: a weird spot too, because the Titans are coming off 717 00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 1: the Giant win on Monday Night. Who knows what that 718 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 1: does to them, you know, exactly. So I mean, forced 719 00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:08,680 Speaker 1: to pick a side, probably I'll take the Chiefs with 720 00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:10,800 Speaker 1: get lay in the points. But it's a game that 721 00:31:11,040 --> 00:31:12,760 Speaker 1: this would be the game, and this would be a 722 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:14,680 Speaker 1: game that on a spread level, I would just try 723 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:17,280 Speaker 1: to desperately avoid. We talked about the Panthers and the Giants. 724 00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 1: Let's get some of the bigger spreads. You've got the 725 00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:23,120 Speaker 1: Rams laying fifteen and a half to Detroit in Los Angeles. 726 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a big plug your nose game. I 727 00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:28,719 Speaker 2: think you have to take the lines at that many points. 728 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 2: I know you mentioned earlier you don't like betting double 729 00:31:31,320 --> 00:31:33,480 Speaker 2: digit favorites. I'm the same way. But where I draw 730 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,480 Speaker 2: the line is two touchdowns. If you're gonna lay a 731 00:31:37,560 --> 00:31:41,040 Speaker 2: team is getting over two touchdowns, I have to take 732 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 2: the underdog. I mean, this is the NFL. These guys 733 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:46,120 Speaker 2: are professionals or professional athletes. They're gonna show up. This 734 00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 2: is not college football Alabama against South Carolina. These teams 735 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 2: are gonna show up. But I mean, I'm a big 736 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:55,200 Speaker 2: stats guy. I look at stats more than anything else. 737 00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 2: And if you're gonna bet at based on the stats, 738 00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,520 Speaker 2: you have to take the Rams. Like Rams are first 739 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,800 Speaker 2: in the NFL, and yards per past ten lines are 740 00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:04,000 Speaker 2: dead last, so you literally have the best passing offense 741 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:07,320 Speaker 2: against literally the worst passing defense. So all the stats 742 00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 2: say the Rams are gonna win by like thirty, but 743 00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,840 Speaker 2: the NFL is just yeah, fifteen points is none. The 744 00:32:13,920 --> 00:32:16,120 Speaker 2: Rams could be up twenty one points, the line score 745 00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,320 Speaker 2: like a garbage time touchdown with a minute left, and 746 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 2: they're covering. 747 00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,440 Speaker 1: So yeah, no, I'm That's the thing. I think if 748 00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,200 Speaker 1: the Rams wanted to and they kept their foot on 749 00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 1: the gas, they'd win this game by thirty one points, right, Like, 750 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:28,480 Speaker 1: they can do whatever they want. But they won't, right 751 00:32:28,520 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: because at the end of the game, they're just going 752 00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 1: to ease back, and you're right, it just screams back 753 00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,440 Speaker 1: to our cover. I agree. If I have to go somewhere, 754 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:34,960 Speaker 1: I am taking the points, as I do with most 755 00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,240 Speaker 1: of these games. We talked already about the Eagles Raiders, 756 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:39,200 Speaker 1: We talked already about the Bears and the Bucks. Another 757 00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:43,920 Speaker 1: big spread, Cardinals ar laying seventeen and a half points 758 00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:47,360 Speaker 1: to the Houston Texans Or is this another point where 759 00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:49,440 Speaker 1: you're just like you have to take the points or what? 760 00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, just take everything I just said about the last 761 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 2: game and apply seventeen and a half points the NFL game. 762 00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 2: And also don't forget like I can kind of actually 763 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:00,360 Speaker 2: understand a little bit more with the Rams, but like 764 00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:04,880 Speaker 2: the Cardinals defense eighteenth in opponent yards per play, second last, 765 00:33:04,880 --> 00:33:07,320 Speaker 2: and opponent yards per carry. Teams are getting five point 766 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,680 Speaker 2: two yards per carry on the ground against them. This 767 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 2: like no defense that's like an average to below average 768 00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 2: defense should be a seventeen and a half point favorite 769 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,120 Speaker 2: against an NFL team. Makes no sense to me. He 770 00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:19,360 Speaker 2: got it back the Texans here. 771 00:33:19,480 --> 00:33:22,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I hate it, but I agree. And the Sunday 772 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,160 Speaker 1: night game, forty nine ers are laying four to the 773 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 1: Colts at very interesting or what you think about this one? 774 00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,120 Speaker 2: Yeah? This is this is a tough game as well. 775 00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,360 Speaker 2: I would put this right behind the Giants Panthers as 776 00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,520 Speaker 2: far as the toughest games to GAINDICAP this week. I 777 00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 2: am gonna lay the points with the forty nine ers 778 00:33:38,360 --> 00:33:40,160 Speaker 2: in this one. It really just comes down to the 779 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:44,000 Speaker 2: they have the much better defense. Really, both offenses are 780 00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:48,840 Speaker 2: kind of comparable so far, especially like third down defense, 781 00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 2: which is something I look at quite a bit. Same 782 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,800 Speaker 2: with the red zone defense. Forty nine ers fourth and 783 00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,000 Speaker 2: third down defense, Colts are twentieth. Colts are also terrible 784 00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,240 Speaker 2: against the pass. No, the forty nine Ers obviously aren't 785 00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:01,640 Speaker 2: a huge passing team, twenty eighth in opponent yards for 786 00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:03,280 Speaker 2: past attempt The forty nine Ers will be able to 787 00:34:03,280 --> 00:34:05,400 Speaker 2: do something against the air, against the through the air 788 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,640 Speaker 2: against this Colts team, I'm gonna lay the points with 789 00:34:07,680 --> 00:34:10,160 Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, but it's definitely not one of 790 00:34:10,200 --> 00:34:11,880 Speaker 2: my better bets of the week. It's a tough one. 791 00:34:12,160 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 1: Yeah. When I looked at this on Monday, I like 792 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,200 Speaker 1: the Colts actually a lot, and now I don't. It's 793 00:34:16,280 --> 00:34:18,040 Speaker 1: just to stay away from me, you know, the forty 794 00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,279 Speaker 1: nine ers, you know, at home as a favorite. It's 795 00:34:21,280 --> 00:34:23,359 Speaker 1: not like something where I want to necessarily back Kyle 796 00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:27,160 Speaker 1: Shannan off the by though, you know, with Jimmy g 797 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 1: back in there, which helps them, you know, from a 798 00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:33,120 Speaker 1: betting perspective, at least in my opinion as of right now, 799 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 1: with the Colts, I really do like what I've seen 800 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,320 Speaker 1: from them a little more offensively, and they're getting a 801 00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 1: little healthier, at least on the offensive line. Of course, 802 00:34:39,480 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: maybe Quentin Nelson comes back, maybe, but they've also got 803 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:46,680 Speaker 1: other injuries. Hilton is fifty to fifty for Sunday, so 804 00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,760 Speaker 1: I don't think you can rely on him. They obviously 805 00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 1: just lost Paris Campbell, and they have injuries on defense 806 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:53,879 Speaker 1: as well, So I think I would just if I 807 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:55,640 Speaker 1: if I had to bet like you, I would probably 808 00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,400 Speaker 1: lean the forty nine ers, but I'm staying away. And finally, 809 00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 1: the Saints are visiting the Seahawks on Monday Night and 810 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 1: the Seahawks are getting four and a half points. What 811 00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:05,120 Speaker 1: do you think? 812 00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:09,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a very similar handicap to the Sunday 813 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 2: night game. I'm back the Saints laying the points here 814 00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:14,719 Speaker 2: because it just comes down to the difference between the 815 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,680 Speaker 2: two defenses. Saints offense is actually not could at all 816 00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,800 Speaker 2: and the Seahawks offense has completely lost their bite with 817 00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,080 Speaker 2: Russell Wilson and Gino Smith in. But the Saints defense, 818 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:28,839 Speaker 2: compared to the Seahawks defense, just completely night and day. 819 00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:32,840 Speaker 2: Saints have the best rush defense right now, only allowing 820 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:36,600 Speaker 2: three point three yards per carry, best red zone defense 821 00:35:36,640 --> 00:35:39,239 Speaker 2: as well, which is absolutely huge. Also been a good 822 00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 2: road bet recently, fourteen to four against the spread in 823 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,640 Speaker 2: their last eighteen road games, So I think the defense 824 00:35:44,680 --> 00:35:47,120 Speaker 2: is what makes the big difference here. Obviously, if Russell 825 00:35:47,120 --> 00:35:49,279 Speaker 2: Wilson was playing, it's a different story. But I'll lay 826 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:51,200 Speaker 2: the points with the Saints in this one just based 827 00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 2: on how good their defense has been. 828 00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,759 Speaker 1: Yeah, as well, I coming off the buy as well. 829 00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:56,600 Speaker 1: I think they've got plenty of time to prepare, and 830 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,400 Speaker 1: you know that the Seayoffs are a little banged up 831 00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:02,040 Speaker 1: here after that tough game there against the Steelers. All right, Ian, 832 00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:06,440 Speaker 1: excellent work and again every your incredible job that you're 833 00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 1: doing this season, Like the number actually boggles my mind. 834 00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:10,680 Speaker 1: So everybody make sure they follow you, but go ahead 835 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:12,359 Speaker 1: and tell everybody where they can find you in your work. 836 00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,600 Speaker 2: Thank you. Yes, Twitter is probably the best place. eMac 837 00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:18,920 Speaker 2: bets ai n m Ac Bets in the Bacon Bets 838 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,799 Speaker 2: podcast that gets released every Thursday morning, where I break 839 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,560 Speaker 2: down my pick for every single NFL game that week, 840 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:25,719 Speaker 2: So check that out as well. 841 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I probably should again recap just all our 842 00:36:28,080 --> 00:36:29,960 Speaker 1: picks just in case somebody you know forgot what they 843 00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 1: were the Bengals. You were taking the Bengals on the 844 00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 1: money line plus two thirty against the Ravens, the Jets 845 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:36,680 Speaker 1: and the Patriots under forty two and a half, and 846 00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:38,840 Speaker 1: the Bucks laying twelve and a half to the Bears. 847 00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:42,040 Speaker 1: I am taking the Panthers laying three to the Giants 848 00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,640 Speaker 1: the under in that same game forty three, and also 849 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,799 Speaker 1: the Eagles getting three from the Raiders. Thanks everybody for 850 00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,520 Speaker 1: tuning in. Again, if you're listening to this, we be 851 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,520 Speaker 1: back on Monday again breaking down with our early look 852 00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,560 Speaker 1: at the Week eight NFL lines. And again, you want 853 00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:58,759 Speaker 1: to watch this, you want to see a bunch of 854 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,160 Speaker 1: videos that we put out, go ahead and subscribe over 855 00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:04,720 Speaker 1: on our YouTube channel YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros. 856 00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,399 Speaker 1: Thanks again for listening to everybody. I'll talk to again 857 00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 1: on Monday, m