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Speaker 1: The volume callin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book.

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Speaker 1: Please use the promo code Colin so they know we

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Speaker 1: sent you. Please use the promo code Collins c O

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Speaker 1: L I in FanDuel Sports Book App. Sign Up. Hi, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Welcome in. It's our Friday morning podcast, Sharper Square with

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Speaker 1: Chad Mellman in ten minutes. First though, fake questions, real answers.

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Speaker 1: I have things I want to talk about and don't

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Speaker 1: want to wait for you to ask me. Dear Colin, boy,

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Speaker 1: what an amazing week of college football? Isn't it? Doesn't

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Speaker 1: this prove that college football is better than the NFL? Folks, No,

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Speaker 1: there are two weekends a year when social media erupts

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Speaker 1: and makes the claim that college football is better than

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Speaker 1: the NFL. Labor Day weekend when college football has four

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Speaker 1: or five big games and the NFL season hasn't started,

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Speaker 1: and Thanksgiving slash rivalry weekend, when you always have upsets

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Speaker 1: in your Auburn, Alabama's Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Michigan, Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: It's a rivalry weekend. There's a reason we like the

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Speaker 1: Stanley Cup Playoffs over college hockey. There's a reason we like,

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Speaker 1: by a six to one margin, the NFL over college

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Speaker 1: football and Major Dague baseball over the College World Series

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Speaker 1: because it's better. The coaching is better, the quarterbacking is better,

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Speaker 1: the players are better. America likes better, and we're willing

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Speaker 1: to pay for better. People will go in debt to

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Speaker 1: pay for better. College football's fun and two weeks of

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Speaker 1: the year, everybody goes nuts. Look at every piece of

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Speaker 1: data and metric. NFL is six times more popular for

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Speaker 1: a reason. You're colin what word makes you go crazy.

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Speaker 1: It's always the same word, integrity. The biggest phonies on

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Speaker 1: the Internet are the people, the college football fans and

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Speaker 1: basketball fans that are ripping kids. And then you look

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Speaker 1: at their avatar and you read who they are and

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Speaker 1: always says Christian husband, father. Really that's not very Christian

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Speaker 1: attacking a twenty one year old place kicker for the

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Speaker 1: Ohio State Buckeyes. Folks, you've got to get over integrity.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason Brian Kelly and Lincoln Riley and all

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Speaker 1: these coaches bail because they're offered rational money. Brian Kelly

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Speaker 1: turned around a dying brand. The last twelve years, Notre

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Speaker 1: Dame has been its best twelve years arguably ever, take

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Speaker 1: away the era Parsigan era. You don't think he has

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Speaker 1: a right eventually to cut the cord and would just

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Speaker 1: stop with what about the kids? The transfer, portal education,

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Speaker 1: great facilities, great travel, massive marketing, they get paid in il.

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Speaker 1: The kids are fine. Stop talking about integrity. That's for

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Speaker 1: people who have never been offered great jobs. They're moral

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Speaker 1: less on integrity. If somebody offers you one hundred million,

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Speaker 1: you're out the door before I can sign the effing check.

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Speaker 1: And you know it, Lincoln Riley looked at usc generational money.

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Speaker 1: I'm out. The kids will be fine. They can transfer

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Speaker 1: and fallow if they want, or they can stand in

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Speaker 1: a great program in Oklahoma. Stop trying to preach integrity.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma leads the country in fracking? Is that environmental integrity?

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Speaker 1: When I think of Oklahoma football, I think of Barry Switzer. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: integrity comes to mind. Your integrity's not mine. My morals

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Speaker 1: aren't yours. Dear Colin, do you hear about the Major

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Speaker 1: League Baseball lockout? Yeah? Barely. Listen. The difference between no

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Speaker 1: baseball and them playing it? The activity is all about

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Speaker 1: the same. Right. If you took away all these sports

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Speaker 1: and you started over with sports, and you needed investors

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Speaker 1: to create a sport, you do realize baseball couldn't get investors.

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Speaker 1: Football could go to investors and go, we got this

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Speaker 1: idea for sport. There's violence, it's great on television and

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Speaker 1: people gamble on it, and there's a lot of action. Basketball. Listen,

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Speaker 1: there's this sport. The season's kind of long, but it's

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Speaker 1: got a bunch of stars. You could sell that. Baseball.

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Speaker 1: Young people don't really love it. It's slow, there's way

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Speaker 1: too many games, and there's not a ton of activity.

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Speaker 1: You couldn't find investors for it. It's nothing against baseball.

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Speaker 1: But here's all you need to know about baseball. I

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Speaker 1: see my audience, I see how big it is. I

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Speaker 1: barely talk about it. Watch First Take, Watch Undisputed, listen

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Speaker 1: to my show, Watch Dan Patrick. Here's something we don't

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Speaker 1: talk about regular season baseball. I don't want to see

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Speaker 1: a strike. I like postseason baseball, but the reality is

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Speaker 1: this is a sport that will be severely hurt by

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Speaker 1: a lockout if it moves into the regular season because

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Speaker 1: lots and lots of young people have already given up

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Speaker 1: on baseball. It's too slow, not enough action here. Colin,

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Speaker 1: what do you make of ESPN swapping out the Lakers

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Speaker 1: Clippers game and replacing it with the Warriors and Sons. Well,

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Speaker 1: I actually like the move, and I think it's just

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Speaker 1: and real. We all admit in our business, all of

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Speaker 1: us have to admit this that big brands are good

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Speaker 1: for our business. The Packers, the Cowboys, They're really good

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Speaker 1: for my business. Notre Dame being vibrant is really good

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Speaker 1: for my business. Duke Carolina being in a Final four

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Speaker 1: Elide eight, it's very good for my business. Yankees Cubs postseason.

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Speaker 1: I've never ever, ever tried to be inauthentic about that.

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Speaker 1: I've tried to always be totally honest with you. But

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Speaker 1: in my business, we also have to be straight with

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Speaker 1: the audience and not try to sell something for more

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Speaker 1: than it's worth. The Lakers are bad. They're not nearly

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Speaker 1: as good as the Sons, the Bucks, Brooklyn, the Warriors.

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to pretend, even though the Lakers being

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Speaker 1: great would be really, really great for my business, I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to pretend they're interesting. And the Lakers, I believe,

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Speaker 1: is one of these gigantic brands that's in trouble now.

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Speaker 1: The Yankees playing a sport without a salary cap, so

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Speaker 1: they can always buy themselves out of trouble. And I

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Speaker 1: do think USC football, a brand that's been dying, will

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Speaker 1: bounce back with Lincoln Riley. I think generally the big

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Speaker 1: brands go down, they come back up. Lakers have a problem.

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Speaker 1: They're tied to Lebron and they're tied to Anthony Davis.

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Speaker 1: And Anthony Davis is now a declining player who refuses

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Speaker 1: to play as natural position, the five. He's shooting nineteen

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Speaker 1: percent from three. He wants to be a four. That's

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Speaker 1: why Frank Vogel will not last with his team. Vogel

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Speaker 1: wants a big ad doesn't want to be a big

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Speaker 1: and the players in the NBA have more power than

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Speaker 1: a coach. But the other issue is Lebron James. Generationally,

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Speaker 1: young players don't want to play with him. Why would

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Speaker 1: a young player want to give their emerging brand Lebron.

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Speaker 1: That's why the Lakers have Westbrook and Mellow and Dwight

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Speaker 1: Howard because older players still hold Lebron in a different category,

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Speaker 1: the legend category. But Michael Jordan got old. Young players

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Speaker 1: didn't want to play with him. Go ask all those Wizards.

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Speaker 1: Young players don't want to play with Lebron James. They

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Speaker 1: want to create their own brand. All right, Let's bring

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Speaker 1: in Chat Milman. Time for Sharper Square, Chief content Officer,

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Speaker 1: Action Network. I thought I was on the right side

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Speaker 1: most of last week, especially on the Denver game. Was

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Speaker 1: my favorite betting at one. But I had a bad record.

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Speaker 1: I'm okay with it. I had a great college football

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Speaker 1: season that made me happy. So let's start with this.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna go backwards. I'm want to start. Hold on,

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Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. You had

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Speaker 1: a bad record, but we went over the games last

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Speaker 1: week and for the third week in a row, I

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Speaker 1: had a really good record, So what's not translating? And

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Speaker 1: we both and we talked about the brown I won

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Speaker 1: that game, but ill so it took the Colts. I

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Speaker 1: took a lot of dogs. I took the Colts. So

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Speaker 1: I just took the wrong games. But I took a

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Speaker 1: bunch of and I took My favorite was the Cowboys. Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go backwards. I want to start with

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Speaker 1: a strong play. I'm gonna take Patriots plus two points

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Speaker 1: at Buffalo nine percent chance of snow. Who does that hurt? Buffalo?

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Speaker 1: Windy snowy Stefon Diggs not a factor. Also, the Bills

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Speaker 1: don't run the football effectively. Who does New England? And

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Speaker 1: during the six game winning streak, I know everybody wants

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Speaker 1: to say it's about defense. They're averaging thirty five points

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Speaker 1: right now. New England's the better team because they have

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Speaker 1: an identity and an identity that plays really well in

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Speaker 1: windy cold weather. I love New England in this spot.

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Speaker 1: Sharper Square totally sharp. The wise guys have been playing

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. It's been really interesting when the the wise

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Speaker 1: guys will play the Patriots. If the number moves down

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Speaker 1: a little bit to two and a half, they immediately

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Speaker 1: buy back on the Bills. So the bookmakers know that

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Speaker 1: three is sort of the number where they're finding the

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Speaker 1: most balance. Everything you're saying is right, I'm gonna go opposite.

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Speaker 1: I love the Bills. In the spot like strong feelings

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Speaker 1: about the Bills, my favorites. Co host Simon Hunter professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter is going against everybody he talks to

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Speaker 1: in the industry. He loves the Bills. Listen. I have

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Speaker 1: lost many times this year fading mac Jones peak Mac Jones.

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Speaker 1: I just think that this is a time where it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a real challenge, and you're getting the

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Speaker 1: Bills in a primetime game, and the line is probably

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Speaker 1: a little bit closer than what it should be power

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Speaker 1: rated at because of all the mac Jones hype. I

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Speaker 1: think there's an overadjustment that's been had. So give me

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Speaker 1: the Bills, all right. So I'm going to take another

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Speaker 1: Dog Chargers plus three and a half at the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: So the Bengals have maybe their biggest in Division win

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Speaker 1: in a decade. They destroy and humiliate the Steelers. Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 1: a bad team right now, and the Bengals are a

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Speaker 1: good team. But there's still a little bit of this

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Speaker 1: roster is still in the rebuilding mode, and I think

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Speaker 1: now we're going a little high in them. I've made

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Speaker 1: more money on the Chargers than any team in the

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Speaker 1: league this year betting against them. But I'm going to

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Speaker 1: take the three and a half. I think it's a shootout.

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Speaker 1: I think you have a very desperate Charger team on

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Speaker 1: the brink of being knocked out of the top seven

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Speaker 1: in the AFC. I do worry that Joe Mixon, and

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Speaker 1: I think the Chargers know this. They can control the clock,

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Speaker 1: but I feel like sometimes there's the regression to the mean.

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Speaker 1: Since then, he's not nearly as good as they look

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Speaker 1: last week. Now people will come pouring in. I'll take

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Speaker 1: the Chargers and the points sharper square, totally sharp, so sharp.

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Speaker 1: This line has moved from three and a half down

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Speaker 1: to three and it's everything you said. You hit all

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Speaker 1: the buzzwords right. There's a bounce back scenario for the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: There's a desperation scenario for the Chargers. There's a aggression

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Speaker 1: to the mean on both sides for the Chargers and

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. And we talked about the Bronchos right last week.

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Speaker 1: We loved the Broncos and we have both been fading

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Speaker 1: the Chargers for weeks because we faded them against the

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Speaker 1: Steelers the week before when they were six point favorites.

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Speaker 1: Like the Chargers early in the year were winning and

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Speaker 1: where everyone's darling because they were converting so well on

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Speaker 1: third and fourth downs. They've stopped doing that. Their defense

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Speaker 1: has been exposed, justin Herbert's accuracy problems have been exposed,

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Speaker 1: and teams are learning how to play them defensively a

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Speaker 1: little bit better. But now the pendulum has swung its

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Speaker 1: a little bit. What I talked about with the Patriots.

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Speaker 1: The pendulums swans so much against the Chargers, And you're

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Speaker 1: always going to find value on a team that has

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Speaker 1: an ugly loss against a team everyone thought was not

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Speaker 1: as good against a team in the Bengals that just

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Speaker 1: come off a massive win against the Steelers. So one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent you're buying the right side here, all right now,

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Speaker 1: let me go to a favorite, Dolphins minus five against

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Speaker 1: the Giants. So I talked to Lewis Riddick this week.

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Speaker 1: He had a good point. He said, we've fallen in

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Speaker 1: love with the esthetics of quarterback play. He said, Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones is boring and two is boring, and they complete

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Speaker 1: seventy five percent of their throws with a really good

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Speaker 1: defensive coach and great corners. Is If you think the

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Speaker 1: Giants are going to go in with a backup quarterback

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Speaker 1: and move the ball at all against the Dolphins in Miami,

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Speaker 1: you're nuts. And the two is doing exactly what Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones is. Basically, Miami's a poor man's version of New England.

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Speaker 1: He completes eighty percent of US throws. They don't run

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Speaker 1: it like New England, but great defense. They kind of

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Speaker 1: stay within the twenties and strike when the opportunities arise.

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Speaker 1: By the way, with Waddle now playing, they have a

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Speaker 1: big time perimeter threat. I'm going to take the Dolphins here.

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Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna go right up against it. And I wouldn't

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Speaker 1: want to play them right now because I believe Brian

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Speaker 1: Flores last year, great coach, Brian Flores now good coach.

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Speaker 1: Once they just said listen, two is limited, but he's

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Speaker 1: are limited. It's like New Yorkers say, yeah, we know

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Speaker 1: New York's are paint in the ads, but it's our city. Okay,

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Speaker 1: we'll deal with the traffic. We'll deal with the taxes.

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Speaker 1: I think Miami's a tough out and I'm gonna take

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Speaker 1: him minus the five. Well, you'd be square. Here's a

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Speaker 1: good example to show you how square this is. This

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Speaker 1: game was at about giants plus three and a half

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Speaker 1: early in the week, and the news came out about

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Speaker 1: Daniel Jones and he's not going to be playing and

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Speaker 1: it's going to be Mike Lennon. The number immediately was

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Speaker 1: reposted giants plus five and a half, right, so bookmakers

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Speaker 1: adjusted it about two points, which tells you how little

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Speaker 1: they think of Daniel Jones that it only moved two

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Speaker 1: points from Daniel Jones to Mike Lennon. As soon as

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Speaker 1: his number got reposted, the wise guys came in and

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Speaker 1: bought it back down. It went from giants plus five

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Speaker 1: and a half giants plus five, giants plus four and

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Speaker 1: a half in some places is now giants four. It's

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Speaker 1: basically going back down to the number it was at.

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Speaker 1: And the reason why there's a couple of reasons. Number one,

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Speaker 1: you're getting Miami. For all the things that you just

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Speaker 1: said about Miami, you could argue the same things about

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Speaker 1: the Bengals, and yet you don't like the Bengals against

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Speaker 1: the Chargers Miami is the same thing. They are surging

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Speaker 1: right now. You are buying the Dolphins at the top

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Speaker 1: of their market because Twa every week you look at

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Speaker 1: his numbers and like, oh my god, Twah was twenty

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Speaker 1: seven of thirty one for two hundred and eighty yards

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Speaker 1: and no picks. And this team won again because their

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Speaker 1: defense is so good. So you have to ask yourself, like,

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Speaker 1: is this team a playoff caliber team? Especially when looking

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Speaker 1: at the Giants right Giants beat New Orleans as a dog.

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Speaker 1: They beat Carolina as a dog, They beat Vegas as

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Speaker 1: a dog. Their losses there to Dallas, the Rams, Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. They lost to the Falcons by three a cover,

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Speaker 1: Washington Football team by one a cover. So are the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins in the bucket with Dallas, the Rams, Kansas City,

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Speaker 1: Tampa Bay? I don't think so. Are they more likely

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Speaker 1: to be in the bucket with the other teams? Yes?

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Speaker 1: So history will tell you that the Giants in this scenario,

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Speaker 1: We'll find a way to cover this game. If not

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Speaker 1: winner it out right. NFL playoff race heating up. How

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Speaker 1: I'd take the Chargers plus three and a half against

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Speaker 1: the Bengals and the over. I think between Burrow and

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Speaker 1: between Justin Herbert, it's gonna be a classic shootout. Chargers

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Speaker 1: line is one eight nine seventy nine or gone hundred

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Speaker 1: dot in West Virginia, or called one hundred next step

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Speaker 1: or text next step to five, three four two a zone.

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Speaker 1: Here's a big favorite that I think is interesting. I

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Speaker 1: want your opinion. Kansas City nine against the Broncos. I

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Speaker 1: do not believe that's a Mahomes number. I think it's

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Speaker 1: a Chris Jones number. I think what you're saying here

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Speaker 1: is Denver's not going to move the ball at all

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Speaker 1: against Kansas City's improved defense. I'm almost willing to swallow

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Speaker 1: Kansas City minus nine here. I don't think their offense

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Speaker 1: is going to get right this year. Outside of their center,

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Speaker 1: the rookie from Oklahoma, Creed Humphrey. I don't think the

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Speaker 1: offensive line's great. I think he's playing great. He and

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Speaker 1: Rashaan Slater have been absolute A plus rookie offensive lineman.

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Speaker 1: But I think what this number is telling you is

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Speaker 1: Denver's not going to move the football. Because Denver generally

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Speaker 1: with a pass rush doesn't move the football sharper square.

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Speaker 1: If I took Kansas City square, the numbers move. The

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Speaker 1: market shows you that it's square. The line used to

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Speaker 1: be ten and a half, it moved down to ten.

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Speaker 1: Now it's at nine. That tells you that the wise

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Speaker 1: guys are coming in on the Broncos. Here fifty five

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Speaker 1: percent of the money coming in on the Bronchos. This

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Speaker 1: is about defense. This is about Kansas City still struggling.

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Speaker 1: We're going to talk about Andy Reidoff a bye, Andy

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Speaker 1: read Off a bye against the spread. Is not Andy

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Speaker 1: Reidoff a bye winning outright, Okay? And so you're talking

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Speaker 1: about why is Andy Reidoff a bye better than Teddy

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Speaker 1: Covers Teddy Teddy Bridgewater who I call Teddy Covers, who

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Speaker 1: is twenty six and nine against the spread as a dog.

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Speaker 1: And their defense, the Broncos defense, the red zone defense

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Speaker 1: is outstanding. Led the league in red zone touchdown percentage

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Speaker 1: of twenty nineteen, led it again in twenty twenty. It's

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Speaker 1: the first time a defense has done that since this

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Speaker 1: stat meaning back to back led the league in that

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Speaker 1: stat since the stat started being tracked. It's not a

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Speaker 1: fluke how well they play in the red zone in

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs because they have been The Chiefs are terrible

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Speaker 1: as favorites, terrible as favorites have more than a field goal,

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Speaker 1: and really really really terrible, like they don't cover at

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Speaker 1: all of more than a touchdown the past season and

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Speaker 1: a half. So in this scenario, you've got a home divisional,

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Speaker 1: you've got a home game home team in the division.

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00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:38,439
Speaker 1: They're laying more than three that covers it just a

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Speaker 1: forty three percent clip since two thousand and three. So

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Speaker 1: for all those reasons, I'll be on the Broncos as well.

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Speaker 1: The Sharps. Having an identity is really important. I feel

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Speaker 1: the Niners have found their identity once Elijah Mitchell got healthy.

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Speaker 1: Now they lack Deebo Samuel. So what concerns me about

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Speaker 1: San Francisco. This is a low scoring game. They win

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Speaker 1: one way and that's run the football. They're minus three

347
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Speaker 1: at Seattle. That has no identity. My gut would say

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00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: take San Francisco, Sharper swear square. It's the This is

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Speaker 1: dictated by the number, right, So the number had been

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. If you can still get

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Speaker 1: it at three and a half, you take the Seahawks.

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Speaker 1: If it's at three. It's generally a pass because what

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Speaker 1: you're getting here is, as you said, there's no debot. Also,

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00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 1: Fred Warner's out, Green Laws out, the Niners finally started

355
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 1: getting healthy and then they have another cluster of injuries.

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Speaker 1: You're just getting a massive buy low spot on the

357
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:49,560
Speaker 1: Seahawks because of how bad they've worked Russell Wilson. Something

358
00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: is off right. Either he rushed back, there's a lack

359
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 1: of comfort with the offense, new offensive coordinator, whatever it is.

360
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: But this is a market play. It's not a team play.

361
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: It's you bet this with the three and a half

362
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 1: because it's the hook because of the home team that

363
00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: is an underdog in that spot and over the long term,

364
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:10,920
Speaker 1: which is what you want to be as a better

365
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: you don't want to play a game to game. You

366
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 1: buy the hook in that spot. Eagles minus six and

367
00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 1: a half of the Jets. I would like the favorite

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00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:26,360
Speaker 1: Eagles Sharper square totally sharp, which is interesting, right because

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Speaker 1: Sharps are normally not going to like taking a road

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Speaker 1: favorite that is creeping into the seven. But you know,

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Speaker 1: we do this. We do this on the favorites right

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Speaker 1: where we have the show on Tuesday, we'll go overall

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Speaker 1: the games, and then on Thursday, I'll say to Simon, Okay,

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Speaker 1: all the wise guys listen to the show. Tell me

375
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Speaker 1: right now, what are the sharp calls you're getting? Eagles

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00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 1: was the number one sharp call talking about how much

377
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Speaker 1: everybody loves the Eagles. This week, no one sees the

378
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 1: Jets covering against an Eagles team that is much much

379
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: better than the Giants, who they played last week and

380
00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: really lost because turnovers. This has been a team in

381
00:23:02,640 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 1: Eagles team that the wise guys have been betting all

382
00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: season long. They see them as a playoff team. They

383
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:10,680
Speaker 1: still think they are one of the most undervalued teams

384
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 1: by the books, and they're playing against Zack Wilson, who,

385
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:15,880
Speaker 1: when he's grading out, is really one of the worst

386
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,679
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in the NFL. All right, I ask you for

387
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: one or two picks every week that I haven't discussed

388
00:23:21,280 --> 00:23:26,119
Speaker 1: that you think are interesting. Throw them at me. The

389
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: Steelers plus three and a half. Actually it's up to

390
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:34,479
Speaker 1: four and a half at the Ravens. Nobody wants to

391
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: bet the Steelers. It is ugly. Nobody wants to bet

392
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:42,199
Speaker 1: a team that just lost to the Bengals by thirty

393
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:45,479
Speaker 1: one points in a game that really everyone thought this

394
00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: was a get right spot for Pittsburgh. This is when

395
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,679
Speaker 1: you bet the Steelers. Betting is about doing bad things right.

396
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:55,439
Speaker 1: Betting is about holding your nose, and I know you

397
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:56,920
Speaker 1: hate that because you don't want to bet on things

398
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 1: that you want to watch. But Steelers plus four and

399
00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,640
Speaker 1: a half, think about this game. Think about this game.

400
00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 1: Since John Harbaugh joined the Ravens as their coach in

401
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, thirteen and thirteen in the regular

402
00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:18,120
Speaker 1: season against the Steelers, the average margin is one. Twenty

403
00:24:18,200 --> 00:24:21,040
Speaker 1: of the twenty six games have been decided by one possession,

404
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: Seventeen of twenty six decided by four or less. Four

405
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: have gone to overtime. Favorites. Here's the key favorites of

406
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: three or more since two thousand and eight, twenty six

407
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 1: games are one, thirteen and two against the spread, So

408
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 1: one time since two thousand and eight a team that

409
00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:44,720
Speaker 1: was a favorite of more than three has covered the spread.

410
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 1: In this game, it just as bad as the Steelers look,

411
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,640
Speaker 1: as decent as the Ravens look, and they haven't looked

412
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 1: great with Lamar Jackson, you know, consistently coming back from illness.

413
00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,960
Speaker 1: They look terrible against the Browns in this series, that number,

414
00:25:01,320 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: you play the dog. Anything else, I would not touch

415
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,680
Speaker 1: the Rams, although they think the Rams could get healthy

416
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: against the Jags. Jags are a weird team about every

417
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,360
Speaker 1: third week they play really well, but they're just slow. Yeah, right,

418
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: and so, but that's also why you always have to

419
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: bet them. You know, we've talked about honest to dot com.

420
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,120
Speaker 1: We've been talking about games for ten years. Every week

421
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: I will say take the Jags because that's what the

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00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 1: professionals are doing. They're going to take the Jags again

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00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 1: this week for exactly what you just said. They took

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Speaker 1: the Jags last week at plus two. They'll take the

425
00:25:32,880 --> 00:25:35,240
Speaker 1: Jags this week as big dogs against the Rams. They're

426
00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 1: just going to do it every week. The Falcons are

427
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: interesting an eleven point underdog at home against the Bucks.

428
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: That's going to be one people are talking about. The

429
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 1: other one that is really really gross the Detroit Lions

430
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:54,480
Speaker 1: against the Vikings a plus seven. And how you know

431
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 1: this game is getting money from the professionals is that

432
00:25:58,080 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 1: it is not moved off seven. The bookmakers have basically said,

433
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: we're drawing a line in the sand. This line is seven,

434
00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:11,399
Speaker 1: and they're going to make professional betters take this number

435
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: and not even worry about This is a massive, massive

436
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 1: game for professional betters. It'll be really interesting. Right, I'm done.

437
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,200
Speaker 1: It's a weird it's a weird week for numbers. I

438
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: really like the Patriots. I really like the Chargers. I

439
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: think he talked me into the Steelers. I think it's

440
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 1: a weird week for numbers. I had my best college

441
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: football with Fandal, my best college football. I went three

442
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: and ozho my last five weeks. I was three and

443
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,320
Speaker 1: oz three and zero two and one three and ozho

444
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 1: three and oh. I was on fire. I was like

445
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 1: Colin Wilson, you're guy. I was on fire. Yeah, how

446
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: great this this past week and for college football was

447
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,199
Speaker 1: so good and I watched Uh, you know, I'm a

448
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 1: Midwest guy, right, so I'm always going to when Michigan

449
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 1: and Ohio State are both great and there's a marquee

450
00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 1: matchup with those two, it's just always going to mean

451
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: more to me than Georgia and Alabama or LSU Alabama.

452
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: That game from ann Arbor on Saturday. Kudos to the

453
00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 1: Fox production team from the moment that game started with

454
00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: the images from inside the tunnel with the snow falling

455
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: before the teams came out, the production of the game,

456
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 1: the capturing the fight in the locker room or in

457
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: the in the tunnel in between halftime, and then the

458
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:27,879
Speaker 1: postgame celebration. I was riveted, riveted the entire time. It

459
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,560
Speaker 1: was amazing. It was so much fun to be a

460
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,439
Speaker 1: college football fan that day, and it was good for

461
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: the sport for Michigan to win. It mean, that's forty

462
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:38,840
Speaker 1: nine states from rooting for Michigan. Is no Obama fan

463
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,320
Speaker 1: wants to hear this, but Bama is boring. I mean

464
00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: outside of the South in Ohio state, you know they're

465
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 1: you know, they're obnoxious. But the truth is, the sports

466
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 1: better when when that conference is a two or a

467
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: three team conference, not a one team conference. So yeah,

468
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: you know my favorite part. I'm agnostic. So when anybody

469
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 1: talks morals are I always roll my eyes. All these

470
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: fan bases, Notre Dame, they weren't too bad. Oklahoma, you

471
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: stole our coach. There's no integrity, it's such, you know.

472
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,879
Speaker 1: And again I'm a coachal elitist and agnostic. So I

473
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,439
Speaker 1: think all morality is flexible, all integrity is flexible. I

474
00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: don't think fracking is environmentally integrists, So you know, stop

475
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: it's me, but I one of my favorite things about

476
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 1: college football is once you put that plaque on the wall,

477
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: fans are crazy like NFL fans will bet against their team,

478
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: like my team sucks. You cannot get an Ohio State

479
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: fan to ever bet against their team. The plaques on

480
00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 1: the wall, they go to the school. Deep down, all

481
00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: of us in the media wanted to see Michigan. I'm

482
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 1: not gonna speak for everybody, but we wanted to see

483
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 1: the Big Ten become a two team conference or a

484
00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,960
Speaker 1: three team conference. We all want Mel Tucker and James

485
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: Franklin to stay. We want Jim Hardbottle work. It's not

486
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: anti Ohio State, it's pro depth of conference. Right. Yes,

487
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 1: people don't get that. The media doesn't have a bias

488
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: for teams. The media has a bias for stories. What

489
00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 1: can I talk about Ohio State being dominant every single

490
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 1: colometer and everyone else sort of battling for second place

491
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 1: is not interesting. Give us some tension, give us a

492
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 1: narrative that we can talk about for three, four or five, six,

493
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: seven days out of the month, thirty days out of

494
00:29:37,960 --> 00:29:41,680
Speaker 1: the month, whatever it is. That's what people root for

495
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 1: and by the way if your coastal elite. It's because

496
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,840
Speaker 1: those are the teams that end up having the most

497
00:29:46,920 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 1: drama and bring it in the most audience. I know

498
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 1: when it comes to the spring and football's over, there's

499
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: going to be three things that Colin Coward will talk about.

500
00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: NFL free agency, NFL Draft, Lebron James. Those would be

501
00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: the most interesting things for every single fan of sports

502
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: that will get the widest pass. The fans really think

503
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: we care about their team winning. No, just give me stories.

504
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 1: I'm rooting for tire fires on the freeway. I just

505
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: want smoke. I just want I always say in the media,

506
00:30:21,760 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: we report on plane crashes, not on plane landings. Give

507
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: us mayhem. As long as nobody gets hurt, give us mayhem.

508
00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 1: Like this weekend, if Alabama had lost Auburn, how amazing

509
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,440
Speaker 1: right that had been for the conversation about the playoff, Like,

510
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: that's why we're rooting against Alabama. It's not because I

511
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: don't like Nick Saban. It's because I want something interesting

512
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 1: to happen. By the way, have you seen Oklahoma State

513
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: play Yeah? Yeah, I said it three weeks ago. Most

514
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 1: underrated team in the country. Watch them give Georgia a

515
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: little trouble, they'll spread them out. They have a real

516
00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: defense too, by big twelve standards. Yeah, that defense is good.

517
00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:05,000
Speaker 1: Watch Oklahoma State if they get in, watch them give

518
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: Georgia trouble those Georgia guys. Then Oklahoma State's a three

519
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: star program. They don't even go and get the big stars.

520
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 1: They get JC guys, three star guys. You know, George

521
00:31:13,440 --> 00:31:15,880
Speaker 1: has been a so glommed onto a chance to play

522
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: like a Michigan Watch out that that and the line

523
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:24,680
Speaker 1: will probably be you know, thirteen twelve. I would Oklahoma

524
00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 1: State could be one of the bets of the year

525
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 1: I want. By the way, I'm not going to talk

526
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: about the amount I won. I'd been a lot on Michigan.

527
00:31:34,480 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 1: I Am not joking. They weren't listen. You know, you

528
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:41,960
Speaker 1: mentioned Colin Wilson, right, like for college football. That's all

529
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: anybody was talking about last week, that Michigan number. And

530
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 1: by the way, the Michigan number, it was shrinking. It

531
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 1: started off big and like just kept getting smaller and

532
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 1: smaller because all the money was coming in on Michigan.

533
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,840
Speaker 1: People were like, what is going on here? And that

534
00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 1: number just kept getting even up the Saturday morning, like

535
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 1: seven and a half. All of our experts were like, Michigan, Michigan, Michigan.

536
00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,239
Speaker 1: It was yeah, it was an onslaught Chad Milman, good

537
00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 1: to seeing you, buddy. Thanks again. Good to see you

538
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: two brother all right, everybody, go to YouTube, Instagram, Twitter,

539
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: it's called The Volume Sports. Go to YouTube, sign up, subscribe,

540
00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:39,720
Speaker 1: push the button lower right. Talk soon. The Volume