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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm comer in Moscow.

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Speaker 1: This updates Bronzy. You buy c d O E r MC.

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Speaker 1: Come to the c d O E Risk Management Conference

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Speaker 1: February twenty nine to March second at the highest regency,

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Speaker 1: Coconut Point, Florida. Register and learn more at c b

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Speaker 1: O E r M c US dot com. The number

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Speaker 1: of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly declining last week

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Speaker 1: to a three month low. Initial jobless claims drop by

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Speaker 1: seven thousand to two hundred sixty two thousand in the

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Speaker 1: week that ended February, the lowest since November twenty one.

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Speaker 1: The relief for Ellie that swept through US equities is

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Speaker 1: entering a fourth day, with the U S Dock Index

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Speaker 1: futures higher after the recent recovery lifted the year's most

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Speaker 1: battered companies, who checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout

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Speaker 1: the trading day. On Bloomberg SNP EVENI futures up four points,

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Speaker 1: DOWI Mini futures up fifty, and NASDAKI Mini future up

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Speaker 1: sixteen dacks in Germany's up one point four percent. Ten,

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Speaker 1: Your Treasury up one thirty second, the yield one point

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Speaker 1: eight one percent. Yield on the two year points seven

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Speaker 1: four percent. Nine. Nex Scrude oil up two point three

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Speaker 1: percent or seventy one cents to thirty one thirty seven

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Speaker 1: A barrel comex goal down four ten percent or four

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Speaker 1: dollars forty cents to twelve oh seven an ounce. The

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Speaker 1: euro a dollar ten ninety two, the en one thirteen

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Speaker 1: point seven eight. And Walmart Stores down four percent after

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Speaker 1: it had lowered its annual sales forecast after the strong

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Speaker 1: dollar pulled down the value of overseas revenue. That's a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business Flash. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much again.

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Speaker 1: Features up five A turn to the market. It's a

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Speaker 1: forty eight on Wall Street. The following is from Bloomberg View.

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Speaker 1: Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Jonathan Bernstein, a

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Speaker 1: calumnist form Bloomberg View. Governor Nicky Haley is endorsing Marco Rubio,

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Speaker 1: joining Tim Scott and Trey Goudy as a big three

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Speaker 1: of South Carolina Conservative Republicans in his corner party. Actors

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Speaker 1: seem to be finally the side on Rubio will do

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Speaker 1: him any good. Perhaps a small bump over current polls

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Speaker 1: would allow Rubyo to finish second in South Carolina. Unless

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Speaker 1: the polls are wrong, he would need a much larger

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Speaker 1: search to catch Donald Trump. Strong late shifts and presidential

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Speaker 1: primaries aren't all that unusual, but there's no sign of

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Speaker 1: it happening so far. But Rubio does not need to

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Speaker 1: win South Carolina to be nominated. He just has to

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Speaker 1: bring Trump's share of the vote down or to knock

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Speaker 1: out his competitors to set up a one on one showdown.

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Speaker 1: A three man race in which Trump gets about a

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Speaker 1: third of the vote everywhere would be tough but possible

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Speaker 1: for Rubio to win. If Trump gets two fifths, it

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Speaker 1: would be even harder. So if getting Nicky Haley helps

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Speaker 1: him even a little, it could be a big deal. Indeed,

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Speaker 1: I'm Jonathan Bernstein. For more of you, please go to

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg View dot com or view go on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 1: This has been Bloomberg View and Bloomberg View commentaries can

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Speaker 1: be heard hourly weekdays. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Michael McKee did

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Speaker 1: the minutes yesterday, I wanted to jump in with Chris Rupkey,

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Speaker 1: Thank you Tokyo's But Chris, I want to give you

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Speaker 1: a victory lap for the resiliency you have called war

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Speaker 1: within the American economy. It's there. We all agree with that.

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Speaker 1: But is it a new terminal value that we didn't

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Speaker 1: see four or five six years ago? Are we heading

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Speaker 1: towards a point it's a lower, more dampen point than

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Speaker 1: what we would have guessed, say, five years ago. Well,

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Speaker 1: that's an interesting question. I mean, I want to go

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Speaker 1: out and talk to people. I can point out that

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Speaker 1: various economic statistics are strong, unemployment rates at generational low,

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Speaker 1: jobless claims are very close to the lowest level since

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Speaker 1: the nineteen seventies. Car sales are eighteen million. But then

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Speaker 1: I always get back in my face somebody in the

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Speaker 1: audience saying, uh, you know, why doesn't it feel good

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Speaker 1: out there? And I don't really have a lot to

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Speaker 1: say to that. I mean, economics doesn't have much to

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Speaker 1: say to that. But you know that we're more of

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Speaker 1: a risk management oriented you know, country markets, financial institutions,

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Speaker 1: even general businesses. We were seem to be more worried

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Speaker 1: about the future than than we used to be. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the risk management profession didn't really get going until twenty

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Speaker 1: years ago. Anyway. Anyway, it's very disturbed. You see in

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Speaker 1: the minutes that you know, they're almost changing gears here, saying, uh,

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Speaker 1: increasing the downside risks to the outlook. I mean, my gosh,

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Speaker 1: did you see what the e c D said today?

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Speaker 1: Uh that in the minutes they said, uh, they got

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Speaker 1: to be careful not to convey unduly gloomy massage. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think when you pointed downside risks, you're kind of

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Speaker 1: risking frightening people. Frankly, But Mike, you saw several nuggets

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Speaker 1: yesterday and came up with a few observations. Michael McKee, Well,

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Speaker 1: to be fair, Chris, when the said was actually near

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Speaker 1: was the worst of the you know, whatever was going

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Speaker 1: on in financial markets, etcetera. So, um, it's it's fair

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Speaker 1: to say if that continued there would be downside risks,

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Speaker 1: which is it is kind of what they said. I

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Speaker 1: guess the issue now is Yeah. The interesting thing to

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Speaker 1: me though, I mean, it felt pretty bad, I have

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Speaker 1: to admit, uh, and the negative rates angle, you know,

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Speaker 1: tortured people and made people concerned about the downside. But

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Speaker 1: I mean when you look at the stock market, I

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Speaker 1: mean year to date it was only down ten percent,

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Speaker 1: I mean ten percent to ten percent, but it felt

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Speaker 1: the commentary and our own fears myself included, we were

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Speaker 1: acting like the down industrials were down year to day,

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Speaker 1: that that used to be a financial crisis. Now we're

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Speaker 1: getting worried. If you know, stocks tumble seven or eight

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Speaker 1: percent year to date. I think we're just more evily

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Speaker 1: alarmed than we used to be for some reason, like

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Speaker 1: a phrase Michael mcketh, they're a great man, evilly alarmed. Well,

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Speaker 1: it does seem that whatever happened is is wearing off.

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Speaker 1: But then the question becomes, do we get back to

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Speaker 1: fast enough growth that there is an inflation threat that

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Speaker 1: would then push the Fed to react. Jim Bullard suggesting

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Speaker 1: last night that inflation expectations have dropped so far that

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Speaker 1: the answer would be no, even if we do see

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Speaker 1: continued strong job growth. Yeah, he's become a disappointment. I

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Speaker 1: always relied on him to be a hawk and talk

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Speaker 1: up the need normalize rates, and now he's looking in

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Speaker 1: the rear view mirror at inflation. I mean, inflation is

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Speaker 1: the probably the slowest moving economic variable we have out there.

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Speaker 1: You know, it responds with an incredible lag. And the

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Speaker 1: thing he seems to be pointing to, interestingly is basically,

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Speaker 1: these inflation expectations from the market, they're only down because

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Speaker 1: the bond market rallied. As Jan Yellen said, thinking there's

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Speaker 1: a recession, Well, you know, if the stock market is

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Speaker 1: called line of the last five recessions, the bond market

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Speaker 1: is called twenty five of the last five recessions. The

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Speaker 1: bond market really gets going. It's juicus gets flowing. People

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Speaker 1: buy bonds when they think the economy is weaken. We're

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Speaker 1: in a recession. So I don't think inflation is too low.

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Speaker 1: And if it, the public doesn't care that core PC

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Speaker 1: inflation is one point four percent. They're oblivious to it.

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Speaker 1: It's it's kind of off to the radar for them

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Speaker 1: right now. It's not a sign that the economy is

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Speaker 1: not prosperous. The fact that inflation is only one percent.

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Speaker 1: I don't get it. Uh, curve, What you do best, Chris, No, Chris,

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Speaker 1: what you do best is link fixed income dynamics into

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Speaker 1: the American economy. What does the yield curve signal to

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Speaker 1: you right now? Well, the yield curve is a bit

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Speaker 1: of a mess. Fully, yeah, I think all these markets

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Speaker 1: six income markets incredibly distorted. You know, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of corporate bonds being issued people are swapping to they

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Speaker 1: want to pay the lower floating rate here. I think

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Speaker 1: because the Feds kept rates down here at zero for

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Speaker 1: so long, it's distorting how people finance themselves. And so

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Speaker 1: I I don't really trust the Yeld curve to indicate

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Speaker 1: much anyway, the old recession signal that the New York

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Speaker 1: said did a lot of research on, you know, ten

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Speaker 1: fifteen years of even uh, it has to actually invert,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think it's one year bills to yields to.

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Speaker 1: It hasn't inverted yet, So no reciting. In the time

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Speaker 1: we got left with you, do you have a handle

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Speaker 1: our negative rates actually impinge on any given nation? I mean,

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Speaker 1: are we miles? I mean for every country is a

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Speaker 1: little bit different, you know, and I'm shocked that they

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Speaker 1: did that. But you know, Corona likes to to shock

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Speaker 1: and all the markets. I don't know if you've got

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Speaker 1: you know, unfortunately, cycle banks generally are running out of

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Speaker 1: ways to wow the markets and make the public, consumers,

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Speaker 1: businesses to inject them with renewed confidence. But for the

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Speaker 1: U S it's absurd for US to lower rates to

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Speaker 1: negative territory because, I mean, negative rates is supposed to

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Speaker 1: increase bank lending, but our bank lendings running at double

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Speaker 1: digit rates, banks and lending like there's no tomorrow. There's

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Speaker 1: no need to do negative rates to encourage bank lending,

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Speaker 1: you know, Thank you so much. Chris Rofki, Bank of

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Speaker 1: Tokyo min Subishi, always with an optimism on the American

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Speaker 1: accounting Mike, what's the update and you're reading on negative rates?

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Speaker 1: Chris alludes there the debate that maybe negative rates will

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Speaker 1: come here. I don't see that. Yeah, I don't see

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Speaker 1: it in the literature. I want to make that clear, folks.

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Speaker 1: I was saying this last night over a beverage of

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Speaker 1: my choice, where we try every day not to be

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Speaker 1: hyperbolic and hysterics. I mean, I don't anywhere in the

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Speaker 1: literature might see negati of rates coming to the US.

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Speaker 1: Uh No, the Fed doesn't want negative rates. There a

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Speaker 1: lot of reasons why it would work here, uh you.

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Speaker 1: But you can just point to the starting with service

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Speaker 1: sector inflation is one. Just point to the fact that

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Speaker 1: there are five countries that have imposed negative rates and

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Speaker 1: the like thirteen that have negative rates in practice, and

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Speaker 1: not one of them has seen a pick up in

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Speaker 1: roup or inflation. So it's it is an it would

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Speaker 1: be an experiment and why experiment? That was great talking

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Speaker 1: with John Tish earlier. I hope you like that. Folks

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Speaker 1: looks for that out of Bloomberg, A digital A conversation

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Speaker 1: on the hotel business, whether it's I was struck by

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Speaker 1: the the quick study I did for rooms at the

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Speaker 1: end of March of a thousand bucks for two nights

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Speaker 1: versus five hundred dollars for two nights, versus what Airbnb

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Speaker 1: would do for my kids. It never occurred to me.

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Speaker 1: To me, it's massively generational. Yeah, I don't know where

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Speaker 1: we're on the hotel. We're on the Jaunt Tish side

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Speaker 1: of things right now, we're on a green screen side

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Speaker 1: features of six down, features of sixty one. Another hour

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Speaker 1: a February hour of Bloomberg surveillance