1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero I am Akshadrati This week the future 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 1: of climate science. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was 3 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 1: founded in nineteen eighty eight as a United Nations body 4 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,280 Speaker 1: that provides impartial advice to governments about the state of 5 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,000 Speaker 1: climate science. It is best known for producing its assessment 6 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: reports roughly every five years, and they formed the basis 7 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: of policies around the world. The last set of reports, 8 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:41,239 Speaker 1: known as AR six, were released between twenty twenty one 9 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: and twenty three and made headlines around the world for 10 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 1: saying that it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed 11 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 1: the atmosphere, ocean, and land. It may sound obvious now, 12 00:00:53,400 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: but the level of evidence needed for all scientists to 13 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: agree on unequivocal is nothing short of daggering, and that's 14 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 1: why it made front page headlines around the world. The 15 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 1: IPCC's and next set of reports, called AR seven, are 16 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: due to be released between twenty twenty eight and twenty nine, 17 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: and while they no longer need to prove that humans 18 00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:18,240 Speaker 1: are causing climate change, these reports will form the basis 19 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: of the next set of government policies and targets. It's 20 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: vital work and when the reports come out, they will 21 00:01:25,200 --> 00:01:29,200 Speaker 1: make front page headlines again, but the organization is now 22 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,679 Speaker 1: operating in a much more challenging environment, with climate misinformation 23 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: on the rise and the US withdrawing from the IPCC 24 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: process that reduces the contributions to the IPCC's budget and 25 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,959 Speaker 1: cuts the funding for US climate scientists to participate. This 26 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: week on Zero I am joined by Professor Jimski, the 27 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: Chair of the IPCC, to ask what the future of 28 00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: the IPCC looks like, whether the organization can survive the 29 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 1: US's withdrawal, and what kind of questions the next set 30 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 1: of reports are going to answer. Welcome to the show, 31 00:02:08,000 --> 00:02:08,680 Speaker 1: professors Ki. 32 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 2: Well, thank you for having me. Very pleased to be here. 33 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: So the IPCC is nearly forty years old and its 34 00:02:15,600 --> 00:02:19,360 Speaker 1: comprehensive reports have formed the basis of how the world 35 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 1: understands and attempts to tackle climate change, and the work 36 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,920 Speaker 1: is being recognized widely. It even won Nobel Prize in 37 00:02:27,960 --> 00:02:31,079 Speaker 1: two thousand and seven. You became the chair in twenty 38 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: twenty three, and you will preside over what is going 39 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: to be the seventh Assessment report that'll come over the 40 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: next few years. We'll come to the report and we'll 41 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: try and understand a little bit about the science and 42 00:02:42,360 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: the political moment that we find ourselves in. But if 43 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: you take the big picture of you, how do you 44 00:02:47,639 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: think the IPCC has evolved to remain effective in these 45 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: four decades. 46 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:55,600 Speaker 2: Well, I think when IPCC started out, and just to 47 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,240 Speaker 2: say I was not there at the beginning, I'm old, 48 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 2: but I'm not that old. So I think it was 49 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: a world in which things were actually much more informal. 50 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 2: You know, a group of scientists got together, obviously under 51 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:12,480 Speaker 2: intergovernmental auspices, but they were a small number of scientists. 52 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 2: And as we've gone through the last thirty forty years 53 00:03:16,200 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 2: we face challenges. I think we formalized the process as 54 00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 2: much more. Our principles and procedures are much more elaborate. 55 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 2: We have ways of dealing with any alleged errors that 56 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 2: occur in reports. We have much more formal ways of 57 00:03:30,720 --> 00:03:36,160 Speaker 2: appointing off authors and criteria for selecting authors. So it's 58 00:03:36,200 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 2: a much more disciplined world, if I can put it 59 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 2: that way, from the world we started in. 60 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 1: There is right now a group of people who understand 61 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 1: and are convinced about climate action and who are proceeding 62 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:50,840 Speaker 1: with taking on many of the steps that the IPCC 63 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: has laid out there is also an has always been 64 00:03:54,680 --> 00:03:58,080 Speaker 1: another group of people who are completely opposed to climate action, 65 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: who are ideologically opposed to it. How do you think 66 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 1: IPCC's work speaks to that second group of people. 67 00:04:05,320 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 2: Well, just to say, it's not IPCC's job to engage 68 00:04:08,640 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 2: in advocacy. It's our job to stick to the science, 69 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 2: and we're not going to enthusiastically engage in big debates 70 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 2: among advocates either for or against climate change action. So 71 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 2: what we need to do is to keep putting over 72 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,719 Speaker 2: the messages that we have put over in the reports 73 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,600 Speaker 2: that are solidly rooted in climate science. In the last report, 74 00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 2: we said, and this was one of the strongest IPCC 75 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: statements ever, humans are responsible for the climate change that 76 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,200 Speaker 2: we are seeing, and that evidence is unequivocal. So unequivocal 77 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 2: is a strong word, but it really reflected the underlying science. 78 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:49,080 Speaker 1: I've spent a lot of time in the lab. I 79 00:04:49,120 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: got a PhD in chemistry, and so I have much 80 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: appreciation for the process of science. Why scientists have to 81 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: be precise and measured when they communicate the results that 82 00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:03,840 Speaker 1: they come up with. But in this environment where policy 83 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 1: is shaped not just by the science, but by people 84 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: who are allowed. You know, you have politicians, you have 85 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:14,840 Speaker 1: TikTok influencers and YouTube stars, and even respected newspapers who 86 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 1: publish columns that are completely anti science, that take the 87 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: wrong science on. Given the information ecosystem, how do you 88 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:28,559 Speaker 1: think IPCC's communication strategy has to evolve in this moment. 89 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm really glad you used the word ecosystem in 90 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 2: your question because I was about to use it in 91 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 2: my answer. There is a very complex ecosystem of bodies 92 00:05:38,400 --> 00:05:41,880 Speaker 2: addressing climate change, all the way from pure science to 93 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 2: your advocacy. An IPCC's place in the ecosystem, it's unique 94 00:05:47,240 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 2: one is that it's findings represent a consensus between governments 95 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: and scientists. The way that our reports are produced at 96 00:05:57,000 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: the final stages, and that gives us just a very 97 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 2: very unique role and a sense of authority. So we 98 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 2: absolutely it says in our rules our first audiences are 99 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:12,279 Speaker 2: the UN system and governments, so it's public policy making 100 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,839 Speaker 2: that is our target audience. But we also have secondary 101 00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:18,479 Speaker 2: audiences and we try to get the message out to 102 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 2: a much wider range of people, whether it's people in business, 103 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 2: civil society, and NGOs, young people. You know through trying 104 00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 2: to produce, say, fact sheets that summarize the findings of 105 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:36,040 Speaker 2: IPCC reports. So our communication is absolutely there our first 106 00:06:36,080 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 2: one governments in the UN, but we don't ignore other 107 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:41,440 Speaker 2: audiences as well. 108 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 1: But when the IBCC comes under attack for political biases, 109 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,760 Speaker 1: for cherry picking all these phrases that Clement denihlysts come 110 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:53,080 Speaker 1: up with, do you need to respond and be offensive 111 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: about your strategy to respond to the fact that these 112 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 1: are not based in valid. 113 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 2: I don't think our communication strategy implies that. You know, 114 00:07:04,720 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 2: we we dive into the blogosphere and respond to every 115 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: single comment because there are so many of them out there. 116 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: We do take a measured approach to it. We just 117 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: continue to plug away at the messages, the findings of 118 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 2: the scientific reports, because the moment we start engaging in 119 00:07:24,320 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 2: these in these debates, that's the moment we take away 120 00:07:28,480 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 2: from our authority there. So we are very conscious of 121 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:33,120 Speaker 2: our unique position. 122 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:35,240 Speaker 1: Do you think that approach is working? 123 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:39,120 Speaker 2: It's working as well. I mean, if we were to 124 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,640 Speaker 2: engage in the blogosphere, it's not what it's what you 125 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 2: could lose that we're worried about, not what you could 126 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: actually win. There are huge risks there because it could effectly, 127 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 2: you know, affect people's perception of us if we are 128 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 2: perceived to be on one side or another of a debate. 129 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 2: We are supposed to review all the literature taken to 130 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:04,320 Speaker 2: count all the possible views, and if we become one 131 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: of the actors in a debate, I think it causes 132 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 2: a lot of problems reputationally. 133 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: Now let's talk about AR seven and the report that's 134 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: coming and the science that's going to be fed into it. 135 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: IPCC reports that thousands of pages long. They are long 136 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: for a good reason. There's a lot of science that 137 00:08:20,400 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 1: goes in there. But you know, you compare it to 138 00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: other reports that have come out just for fun. I 139 00:08:26,040 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: picked one. The US era nuclear Deal was one fifty 140 00:08:29,080 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 1: nine pages long. So, after six such assessments that you've done, 141 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: what are big questions that AR seven still needs to 142 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: find ways to answer? 143 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, there are several things that will be I mean, 144 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 2: science enough for sleeps that are always new issues opening up. 145 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,200 Speaker 2: One of the things, it's now almost certain that we 146 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 2: will exceed global warming of one point five degrees within 147 00:08:52,240 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: the next few years, so but politicians still maintain this 148 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:59,599 Speaker 2: aspiration to limit warming to one point five degrees in 149 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:03,760 Speaker 2: the long which means we will, in the parlance, have 150 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 2: overshoot of the temperature limit and politicians would aspire to 151 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:12,440 Speaker 2: bring us back again. And understanding this overshoot is one 152 00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 2: of the big challenges for the next cycle that scientists 153 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,600 Speaker 2: are working on right at the moment there and it 154 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,440 Speaker 2: cuts across all of IPCC because our physical scientists in 155 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:25,360 Speaker 2: Working Group one need to respond to issue how would 156 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:30,079 Speaker 2: the Earth system respond to removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, 157 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,080 Speaker 2: and it's not fully understood. Our people on impacts and 158 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:37,320 Speaker 2: adaptation in Working Group two need to understand some of 159 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:42,040 Speaker 2: the irreversibility and irreversible impacts that might occur as we 160 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 2: go past one point five degrees that we can't go 161 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 2: back on even if we bring their temperatures back down. 162 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 2: And for our colleagues in Working Group three on the 163 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 2: mitigation side, which means removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere 164 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: as well as reducing emissions, the big challenge is there 165 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: there are many new, more technological approaches to removing carbon 166 00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 2: dioxide from the atmosphere that have yet to be addressed 167 00:10:05,920 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 2: fully in IPCC reports or the underlying science. So there's 168 00:10:10,160 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 2: just a huge agenda round that particular issue. 169 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: And it's very important that we understand the science before 170 00:10:16,800 --> 00:10:20,080 Speaker 1: we start spending billions and maybe trillions of dollars that's 171 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 1: what may be needed for the type of carbon removal 172 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 1: we are talking about. When you say that there are 173 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:34,280 Speaker 1: still questions and uncertainties, where are those uncertainties the biggest. 174 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 2: Well, the uncertainties go right through it, because we obviously 175 00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 2: haven't done physically all the things that we might need 176 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 2: to do in terms of carbon dioxide removal. We don't 177 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:48,079 Speaker 2: understand what the costs are. There are lots of claims 178 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,400 Speaker 2: out there, but we haven't done it at a commercial 179 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:54,000 Speaker 2: scale as yet. And then there are other issues about 180 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 2: the feasibility. They're very reliant on resources like energy, water, 181 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 2: land availability, and there may be political acceptance issues as well. 182 00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:07,960 Speaker 2: So all of these issues around feasibility are going to 183 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 2: need to be addressed as well. 184 00:11:09,559 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: There are other things that have come up in the 185 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 1: last few years, so there has been some talk about 186 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 1: perhaps we are on a faster warming track than was 187 00:11:17,600 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 1: previously taught, and especially the years of twenty three and 188 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: twenty four were those piers when people really were alarmed 189 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: by the types of impact that we were seeing at 190 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: that temperature. Is the IPCC looking to answer that question 191 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 1: in the next report. 192 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the last report didn't get quite there 193 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:37,880 Speaker 2: in terms of answering that because we were seeing some 194 00:11:39,120 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: very unusual kind of things happening just as the last 195 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 2: reports came out. I think the conclusion that we've got 196 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:48,520 Speaker 2: so far in terms of global indicators, we are right 197 00:11:48,600 --> 00:11:52,160 Speaker 2: at the edge of the envelope of projections that were 198 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 2: previously produced, but we have not yet gone outside the 199 00:11:55,960 --> 00:11:58,680 Speaker 2: envelope as yet. Now that's not the case for more 200 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 2: local indicators, for example in specific regions of the world, 201 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,720 Speaker 2: or for example for the oceans where we've seen heat 202 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: waves in the oceans in particular places that are quite 203 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 2: you know, are really not well understood. They're outside what 204 00:12:12,679 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 2: was projected. So yeah, we've got to dive into that 205 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 2: over the next three years or so. 206 00:12:18,040 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: You got started in the climate side of the equation 207 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:24,840 Speaker 1: or the environmental side of the equation through sulfur pollution 208 00:12:25,480 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: in your early research in the US. Most recently, sulfur 209 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: pollution came up as an issue where because the shipping 210 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,640 Speaker 1: fuels are getting cleaner, there were places around the Mediterranean 211 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,920 Speaker 1: in the North Atlantic that saw higher warming. Is that 212 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,480 Speaker 1: the type of question that needs to also be answered. 213 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the question sulfur dioxide is important because you know, 214 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:51,080 Speaker 2: in the atmosphere, it tends to cool the atmosphere rather 215 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,120 Speaker 2: than warm it top. So if you take the sulfur 216 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 2: dioxide away, temperatures will be higher than the otherwise would 217 00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:59,800 Speaker 2: have been. So, yeah, that's the one of the important 218 00:12:59,800 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: things that we do need to consider. Now we have 219 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 2: a part of IPCC that not many people have necessarily noticed, 220 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 2: called the Task Force or National Greenhouse Gas Inventories or 221 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:16,720 Speaker 2: the TFI, and it has been charged with developing methods 222 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:22,480 Speaker 2: by which governments can report their emissions of pollutants like 223 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:26,240 Speaker 2: sulfur dioxide to the unf Triple C in the future 224 00:13:26,559 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 2: so that these things can be taken into account. It's 225 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 2: one of two methodology reports that the TFI will produce 226 00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:37,120 Speaker 2: during the cycle, the other one being on carbon dioxide 227 00:13:37,120 --> 00:13:41,479 Speaker 2: removal technologies, on carbon culture utilization and storage. 228 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: There's also been the use of artificial intelligence, which I 229 00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: would say is new. You know, there was machine learning 230 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:51,440 Speaker 1: in the previous cycle, I guess, but today it is 231 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:56,200 Speaker 1: much faster. It's being used more widely. There could be 232 00:13:56,280 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: applications for how IPCC scientists collate the information to put 233 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: into reports. How is AI being seen, both from the 234 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 1: perspective of the reports itself and making of the report. 235 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's important for everybody, and it's important for us 236 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 2: as well, and that's actually why we ran a three 237 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 2: day workshop last week at the University of Reading on 238 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,960 Speaker 2: specifically the topic of methods assessment on artificial intelligence and 239 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 2: large language models played a big role in that. Now 240 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,320 Speaker 2: that meeting finished just three days ago, so I'm not 241 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 2: quite in a position to report on the findings, but 242 00:14:34,600 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 2: it's very clear that AI has implications all the way 243 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 2: through from discovery of literature. It may actually improve the process. 244 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 2: It can help us perhaps with addressing the thousands upon 245 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: thousands of review comments that we get on each of 246 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:54,920 Speaker 2: our individual drafts. But one thing to be very sure, 247 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,000 Speaker 2: and this is a very solid conclusion. When every IPCC 248 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,200 Speaker 2: report comes out, the authors are told you are going 249 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: to be responsible for all of the content, and there's 250 00:15:04,200 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 2: no way you can just turn it over to AI 251 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,920 Speaker 2: and use that to excuse so it needs to be 252 00:15:09,040 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 2: checked and I think a very big conclusion this is 253 00:15:11,920 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: about the interaction with human beings and technology technology is 254 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:18,160 Speaker 2: not going to solve the problems here. We need the 255 00:15:18,200 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 2: people as part of the process. On one particular area 256 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 2: where it's important that the humans there are assigning the 257 00:15:25,280 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 2: confidence level in findings, and we really can't find a 258 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 2: way in which AI can really substantially help us with that. 259 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,200 Speaker 2: A lot of judgment is still needed there. 260 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,160 Speaker 1: That's exactly what our editors see to us as well. 261 00:15:38,200 --> 00:15:41,479 Speaker 1: Every word that's published by us is under our byline. 262 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:44,280 Speaker 1: If we use AI for research, etc. That's on us. 263 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:48,320 Speaker 1: If AI makes mistaken republish it, that's on me, not 264 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: the AI. So I think that's important from a place 265 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 1: of bringing trust, But it also points me to a 266 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: place where you know IPCC reports, they are long, and 267 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 1: they're big, and they come every five to seven years 268 00:16:03,160 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: kind of the amount of time it takes. But every 269 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: assessment report, one of the scientists told us, is now 270 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,840 Speaker 1: packed with double the amount of research compared to the 271 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 1: previous one. So the rate at which climate science research 272 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: is happening is also growing. Isn't there then a case 273 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,480 Speaker 1: to be made that despite how much work it takes, 274 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: you actually need to be publishing this report these reports 275 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 1: more frequently. Given our understanding is improving more quickly. 276 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:35,720 Speaker 2: Well, ideally, I think it would be wonderful if we 277 00:16:35,760 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 2: could produce reports more quickly, But the authority of IPCC 278 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 2: actually comes from the rigor of the review processes that 279 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 2: we go through, and it is not really possible to 280 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 2: imagine getting a report completed from the point the governments 281 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 2: decide to produce one till the final approval of less 282 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 2: than about three to four years for doing it, because 283 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 2: we have to have a scoping meeting the governments and 284 00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 2: I need to sign off the scope, and only then 285 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,119 Speaker 2: can we even start selecting authors who need to be 286 00:17:07,200 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 2: nominated by governments and observers. And we go through two 287 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 2: external drafts, a so called first order draft for experts, 288 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,119 Speaker 2: a second order draft for experts and governments, and the 289 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,240 Speaker 2: summary for policymakers then goes out once again to governments, 290 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,360 Speaker 2: even before we go to that crucial approval session where 291 00:17:24,440 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 2: we crawl through the summary word for word, line line 292 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: for line, and by the time you add up all 293 00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 2: the gaps and the time and take account of the 294 00:17:31,920 --> 00:17:35,320 Speaker 2: time that our authors need because they're all volunteers taking 295 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 2: time out of their day jobs, that's the answer. So 296 00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,960 Speaker 2: you couldn't do it more quickly unless you were able 297 00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 2: to you were willing to compromise on some of the 298 00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:49,040 Speaker 2: rigor of the reports. So I think for me, we've 299 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 2: given our unique status. I don't see the prospect of 300 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 2: speeding it up hugely. 301 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 1: But there's a risk of missing major moments because this 302 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 1: new IBC support will come into twenty eight and onwards, 303 00:18:01,400 --> 00:18:03,280 Speaker 1: it will take a while because it takes about fifteen 304 00:18:03,280 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: to eighteen months to publish the entire thing. The next 305 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: global stock take, which happens as part of the United 306 00:18:09,080 --> 00:18:12,360 Speaker 1: Nations Cup process, is supposed to happen in twenty twenty eight, 307 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 1: and it only happens every five years, and that stock 308 00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: take then feeds into the climate goals that government set 309 00:18:19,800 --> 00:18:22,240 Speaker 1: in the future. So we currently got twenty thirty five 310 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 1: goals last year that were said because of the previous 311 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: stock tag that happened in twenty twenty three. So now 312 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,600 Speaker 1: that air sim is not going to come in that cycle, 313 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 1: it's not going to feed into policymaker's decisions. Isn't that 314 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:41,320 Speaker 1: a lost opportunity for the IPCC to inform policymakers with 315 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:42,159 Speaker 1: the latest science. 316 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 2: Right, You're touching on one of the most tricky issues 317 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 2: that we have faced in the seventh cycle, which is 318 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 2: the timing of the production of the reports, and some 319 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 2: of our governments would attach a priority to completing the 320 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,439 Speaker 2: work in time for the conclusion of the second Global 321 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:03,600 Speaker 2: stock take. Others are emphasizing other issues, like, for example, 322 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:07,359 Speaker 2: the time it takes for authors from developing countries to 323 00:19:07,400 --> 00:19:11,840 Speaker 2: publish literature that can be assessed by IPCC. So there 324 00:19:11,840 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 2: are differences of view. So just where we're the reports 325 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:19,320 Speaker 2: will certainly under any scenario start to come out in 326 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 2: the middle of twenty twenty eight, so at least some 327 00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,679 Speaker 2: of the output will be there in time for the 328 00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 2: conclusion of the second Global stock Take. The other ones 329 00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 2: we don't know about because our governments have yet to decide. 330 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 2: And I'm just the humble chair of IPCC. You know, 331 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:37,080 Speaker 2: I'm not directing the thing from the top. The government 332 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 2: is an intergovernmental panel. It's the governments who need to decide, 333 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:43,320 Speaker 2: and they have yet to decide on the timeline. So 334 00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 2: we wait and see. But at least some of the 335 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: output I think will be available. Worthwhile also saying that 336 00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 2: the second Global stock take under the Paris Agreement is 337 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 2: not the only event that is taking place during this decade. 338 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 2: Because there will be another periodic review under the Convention 339 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 2: itself of the long term goal of the Convention in 340 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,440 Speaker 2: twenty twenty nine, and we would expect, regardless of the scenario, 341 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 2: the output to be available for that particular point. 342 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 1: After the break. How much does it matter that the 343 00:20:17,680 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 1: US has been drawn from the IPCC. If you have 344 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,360 Speaker 1: thoughts on the episode, write to us at zero port 345 00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot net. And if you've got a moment, 346 00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 1: please write us a review on Apple podcast, Spotify, and YouTube, 347 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,440 Speaker 1: where you can find our archive of over one hundred 348 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 1: and seventy episodes. Let's come to the politics, because politics 349 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: does affect you in indirect ways, if not direct ways. 350 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,680 Speaker 1: The US has been drawn from the IPCC. How does 351 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: that affect US scientist's contribution to the IPCC. 352 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:06,720 Speaker 2: Well, even though the US has informed us that will 353 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,879 Speaker 2: not participate. Now, just to say, IPCC does not have 354 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 2: a membership list. Its rules say that any government that 355 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 2: as a member of the UN or the World Meteorological 356 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 2: Organization can participate. So some countries may choose not to participate. 357 00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,400 Speaker 2: And you know that's the way it is. In terms 358 00:21:26,520 --> 00:21:29,639 Speaker 2: of people who are contributing to the cycle. We have 359 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 2: around fifty US scientists who are involved in the seventh 360 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:39,919 Speaker 2: Assessment Report, and these were nominated by observer organizations and 361 00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 2: their travel and subsistence is being funded by philanthropic bodies. 362 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:47,399 Speaker 2: So that's where we are, and we still have US 363 00:21:47,440 --> 00:21:51,320 Speaker 2: science represented in the in the reports. 364 00:21:51,760 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 1: But that's a fraction of the number of US scientists 365 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: that would have participated in R six. 366 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,600 Speaker 2: I think I would describe it as bigger than just 367 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 2: a fraction, because that makes it sound like a very 368 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 2: small number. It is a substantial proportion, let me feel 369 00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 2: it that way, of the number who participated in AR six. 370 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 1: Right, So the government funding does affect how many scientists 371 00:22:12,320 --> 00:22:14,879 Speaker 1: can participate, but there are some scientists who are still 372 00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: participating as a result of support from other places. Historically, 373 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,440 Speaker 1: the US has produced not just the most amount of emissions, 374 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: which is true it is the second largest emitter, but 375 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: historically the biggest emeter. It has also made the biggest 376 00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,520 Speaker 1: contribution in just the volume of science that has fed 377 00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,760 Speaker 1: into IPCC reports. That has been changing over the years. 378 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 1: Other countries have started to do more science, especially China. 379 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:44,680 Speaker 1: Do you think the withdrawal of the IPCC hurts less 380 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: now than say, if it had happened in the nineteen nineties. 381 00:22:48,280 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's the case. I mean, if you 382 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 2: look at the volume of published literature on climate change, 383 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 2: the startling part for me. I mean, you know, we've 384 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 2: already said it's doubled every seven year ten ten percent 385 00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:06,399 Speaker 2: growth rate on the US contribution has also increased in 386 00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 2: absolute terms, but it's been declining in relative terms because 387 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,919 Speaker 2: there's been faster growth mainly from two places from China, 388 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:17,119 Speaker 2: as you've mentioned, but also the European Union through the 389 00:23:17,160 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 2: Horizon programs, has made a big difference in terms of 390 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: the footprint. So in terms of published papers, I think, yeah, 391 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,399 Speaker 2: you're right, it has less of an impact. It's obviously 392 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,359 Speaker 2: if that were to disappear, you know, the richness of 393 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,119 Speaker 2: the literature would be diminished, but it wouldn't be the 394 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 2: end of the story. There would still be things to assess. 395 00:23:38,600 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 1: Well, maybe one future question first, then, because institutions like ENCAR, 396 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL, NASA, 397 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 1: they're all facing under this current Trump administration a huge 398 00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 1: number of cuts that may not affect AR seven because 399 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 1: a lot of the science is done. But how do 400 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: you think it affects future assessments. 401 00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,399 Speaker 2: Well, the very short answer to that is that we 402 00:24:07,440 --> 00:24:10,199 Speaker 2: don't know, because we haven't done the assessment yet, and 403 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,440 Speaker 2: it's up to the authors to assess the available literature. Obviously, 404 00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 2: it's disappointing if the richness of the underlying scientific literature 405 00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,680 Speaker 2: is diminished. But as we've seen already in the cycle, 406 00:24:21,960 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 2: you know, IPCC is resilient. You know, it continues to operate. 407 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,919 Speaker 2: The plenary sessions are taking place, the assessment activities have 408 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:34,600 Speaker 2: started up. We will have the first report of the cycle, 409 00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 2: the Special Report and Climate Change in Cities will be 410 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 2: out by March twenty twenty seven. So the process is working. 411 00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:45,160 Speaker 1: If we look at the fact that the US, as 412 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:50,480 Speaker 1: the second largest economy historical contributor to science and to emissions, 413 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 1: is not going to be part of signing off on 414 00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:58,320 Speaker 1: the summary for policy makers, do you think that reduces 415 00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,320 Speaker 1: the legitimacy of the ip ACC report and the work 416 00:25:01,359 --> 00:25:01,800 Speaker 1: you do. 417 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 2: When we get to a final approval session, we have 418 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: one hundred and ninety five countries entitled to participate, and 419 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,280 Speaker 2: typically I don't know, we have maybe one hundred and 420 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,720 Speaker 2: twenty of them in the room. So at any point 421 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: there are seventy of those countries that could participate. 422 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 1: Not there. 423 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,840 Speaker 2: The country we're mentioning is one of them, but it's 424 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 2: not the only one. 425 00:25:23,000 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: Now, since the Paris Agreement was signed, we have these 426 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: synthesis reports that are published every year under the UN 427 00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: auspices before going into a cop meeting, and we have 428 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:41,639 Speaker 1: seen that almost without fail, every year, the projected temperature 429 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: on current trajectory of emissions has been falling, so starting 430 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: from very close to four degrees celsius to the latest 431 00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:54,880 Speaker 1: saying maybe two point five degrees celsius. As part of 432 00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:56,960 Speaker 1: the work that you do under the IPCC, you have 433 00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,399 Speaker 1: all these scenarios that allow you to create these temperature projections, 434 00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,160 Speaker 1: but you also take into consideration the policies that governments 435 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,600 Speaker 1: are putting in place. We are seeing a reversal on 436 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,159 Speaker 1: climate policies in many places, not just the US. There 437 00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,800 Speaker 1: are some places here in Europe, some of the developing 438 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:18,760 Speaker 1: countries are slowing down. Do you think that we might 439 00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:22,080 Speaker 1: see a reversal in this trend, that maybe future assessments 440 00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 1: will start to push us closer to three degrees celsius again. 441 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 2: That's something that we, you know, we need to look 442 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,240 Speaker 2: at in the next cycle. I mean just a flag. 443 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:37,760 Speaker 2: IPCC does not have any scenarios. We assess scenarios that people, 444 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 2: the scientists outside IPCC produce, so we reliant on the 445 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 2: range that they come up with. But again you refer 446 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 2: to the UN synthesis reports. I presume the emissions Gap 447 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,720 Speaker 2: report and the Adaptation Gap report that the UN Environment 448 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,439 Speaker 2: Program producers aren't. They used methodologies that were embedded in 449 00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:59,720 Speaker 2: the previous IPCC reports, so they're using the same methods 450 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:04,439 Speaker 2: effectively with new data and the numbers that I have 451 00:27:04,600 --> 00:27:07,119 Speaker 2: in my head, if we carry on with current policies, 452 00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:10,040 Speaker 2: we will be about three degrees warming by the end 453 00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,879 Speaker 2: of the century. But if we implemented all of the 454 00:27:12,960 --> 00:27:16,960 Speaker 2: nationally determined contributions, depending on whether you take the conditional 455 00:27:17,040 --> 00:27:19,959 Speaker 2: or unconditional elements, you're down to two point two to 456 00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,919 Speaker 2: two point five degrees. The future policy is somewhere in 457 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,240 Speaker 2: the band between that two to two point five and three. 458 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 2: That's probably where the real world will will end up, 459 00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:34,960 Speaker 2: And obviously the decisions that are taken or are not 460 00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,720 Speaker 2: taken in the next few years will influence where we are. 461 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:40,880 Speaker 1: You gave a future warming range based on whatever policy 462 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,360 Speaker 1: makers decide right now between two point five and three 463 00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:46,959 Speaker 1: degrees celsius. Just to be clear, that is still a 464 00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,800 Speaker 1: pretty bad world, right it is. 465 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean even two degrees is not a pleasant world. 466 00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:56,840 Speaker 2: I mean, just to say, one of the one of 467 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,560 Speaker 2: the earliest indicators is the loss of warm water corals. 468 00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:03,959 Speaker 2: So at one point five degrees we might lose seventy 469 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 2: five to eighty percent of them. By the time you 470 00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 2: get to two degrees, they're gone basically, So by the 471 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,959 Speaker 2: time you get to two degrees is this is really 472 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 2: really bad effects. And we're looking at other more complicatedly, 473 00:28:16,400 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 2: so you know, for example for agricultural productivity or the 474 00:28:20,040 --> 00:28:22,880 Speaker 2: productivity of fisheries for example, as you get to these 475 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 2: higher warming levels, which we have implications for food prices, 476 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:32,120 Speaker 2: et cetera, other sustainable development goals around hunger. So it's 477 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 2: a nasty world. 478 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 1: Do you wish that the IPCC did anything differently, given 479 00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:42,280 Speaker 1: we're so off track on actually tackling climate change. 480 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 2: I don't think the gap lies and the science. I 481 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:50,440 Speaker 2: think the gap lies in the action. You know, you 482 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 2: may want to challenge me on it, but I think 483 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 2: we've done our bit on getting the message across and 484 00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,000 Speaker 2: stating it quite clearly, and the fact that we are 485 00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 2: quoted by some many government people, for me, is a 486 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 2: signal that we have been noticed. The fact that we'd 487 00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 2: create so much attention in the social media on the 488 00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,160 Speaker 2: media as another indicator. So I think we're I mean, 489 00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 2: there are obviously things we can do better, and we 490 00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,520 Speaker 2: constantly search our souls as it were. But if you 491 00:29:16,520 --> 00:29:18,840 Speaker 2: look at it, I mean, I think the bucket is 492 00:29:18,880 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 2: well over half fool in terms of the communication. 493 00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 1: Another aspect of the work that you do is that 494 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 1: it is informed by policy. Right, the Paris Agreement put 495 00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,000 Speaker 1: in this goal for one point five degrees celsius, which 496 00:29:30,040 --> 00:29:32,760 Speaker 1: wasn't there when the IPCC was created, And then the 497 00:29:32,760 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 1: government's asked the IPCC to produce a report saying, okay, 498 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: now we have this goal. What must the world do 499 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:42,560 Speaker 1: to meet the one point five degrees celsius goal? There 500 00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 1: is now growing understanding among scientists that maybe we are 501 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:48,840 Speaker 1: going to go beyond one point five degrees celsius. You know, 502 00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,960 Speaker 1: overshoot is now almost certain. What does that mean for 503 00:29:53,840 --> 00:29:58,320 Speaker 1: the temperature target under the Paris Agreement? If we do overshoot, 504 00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:01,719 Speaker 1: should that target not be in the Paris agreement. 505 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:05,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, so just on the one point five degrees and 506 00:30:05,400 --> 00:30:07,560 Speaker 2: the role of science and the role of politics. There 507 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:11,640 Speaker 2: has been an iteration, as it were, between IPCC and 508 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,480 Speaker 2: the unf tripleC process because the fifth assessment cycle that 509 00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 2: reported in twenty fourteen, the conclusions were deriving from that. 510 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 2: They are the ones that flagged up. There was a 511 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 2: significant difference in the level of impacts at one point 512 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:29,040 Speaker 2: five degrees compared with two degrees, which had been the previous, 513 00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,440 Speaker 2: previous kind of benchmark, and it was that that inspired 514 00:30:32,480 --> 00:30:35,800 Speaker 2: the governments then to invite IPCC to come up with 515 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:40,520 Speaker 2: a new report that articulated more clearly what the implications 516 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,840 Speaker 2: of one point five degrees. Now on the question of 517 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:49,360 Speaker 2: whether you need a new temperature target, that's for politicians 518 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:54,280 Speaker 2: to decide. I mean, we have clearly indicated the difference 519 00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:57,960 Speaker 2: between one point five and two degrees in terms of impacts, 520 00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: and we will go further into that in the next 521 00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,080 Speaker 2: cycle in terms of irreversibility, should we go over one 522 00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,239 Speaker 2: point five uncome back again, and we'll also look at 523 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,480 Speaker 2: the feasibility of some of the approaches to bringing temperatures 524 00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:14,200 Speaker 2: back down again. But at the end of the day, 525 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:17,400 Speaker 2: that's up to politicians, so we can tell them all 526 00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:22,360 Speaker 2: we count about the feasibility, the costs, the environmental implications, 527 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:25,240 Speaker 2: so we can give them that kind of evidence. It's 528 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 2: up to them to choose. 529 00:31:27,000 --> 00:31:29,240 Speaker 1: You are the chair, and of course you have to 530 00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:32,640 Speaker 1: be pretty diplomatic in how you communicate the work that 531 00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 1: you do, but you're also among the very few people 532 00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: in the world who has i would say, a full 533 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 1: grasp of how climate change is affecting us and what 534 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: we must do to tackle it. And it's been a 535 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: through line through all the IPCC reports that we know 536 00:31:49,760 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 1: more and more what we must do to tackle this problem. 537 00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,640 Speaker 1: So this is just asking you, on a very personal level, 538 00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: what is the kind of theory of change you have 539 00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 1: in mind that would enable the world to actually follow 540 00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:06,360 Speaker 1: through on the types of many of options that the 541 00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:11,520 Speaker 1: IPCC provides to policymakers. It requires coordination, it requires agreement. 542 00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:15,080 Speaker 1: What kind of theory of change do you believe in? Personally? 543 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,160 Speaker 2: Right just to say, I'm not sure that the phrase 544 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,600 Speaker 2: theory of change actually appears in any IPC. I may 545 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,760 Speaker 2: be wrong on that, but I don't recall it as 546 00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:25,720 Speaker 2: one of the what one of them? Which is a 547 00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 2: very key the key messages. If we break it down 548 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 2: a little, we can actually say these are the conditions 549 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,000 Speaker 2: that would need to be met in order to move 550 00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:38,960 Speaker 2: forward the enablers for climate action, and one of them 551 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 2: would be about the role of governments and actually came 552 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,520 Speaker 2: ironically from one of our finance chapters to say, it's 553 00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:48,760 Speaker 2: very difficult to imagine people in the financial sector having 554 00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 2: faith or trust to put their money down on the 555 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,680 Speaker 2: table unless there are very clear messages and signals from 556 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:58,320 Speaker 2: policy making communities that that's the way you want to go. 557 00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:02,959 Speaker 2: So political will and signaling, I think is an incredibly 558 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:07,080 Speaker 2: important part of it. But we've also gone down into 559 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:10,880 Speaker 2: really very great detail on the kinds of policies that 560 00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,840 Speaker 2: you could be deployed, the kind of policies that have worked, 561 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 2: and just to say on what works, I mean, there 562 00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,400 Speaker 2: was very strong evidence in the last report that even 563 00:33:19,440 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 2: if the world has still been warming up and emissions 564 00:33:22,080 --> 00:33:25,760 Speaker 2: are rising, emissions are less than they otherwise would have 565 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 2: been because of all the policies that have already been 566 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 2: put in place. So the last report identified gigatons of 567 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:36,760 Speaker 2: avoided greenhouse gas emissions through policy action. So we do 568 00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,520 Speaker 2: know that things work what they need to do is 569 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:42,200 Speaker 2: if you want to reduce emissions, is to roll them 570 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,360 Speaker 2: out in a wider range of geographies and make them 571 00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:49,280 Speaker 2: a bit more ambitious. But the kinds of solutions we 572 00:33:49,360 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 2: know what they are. 573 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: From your work on sell for emissions which used to 574 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,600 Speaker 1: cause acid rain, and today in most parts of the 575 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,640 Speaker 1: world we don't have acid rain. The solutions were technological 576 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: because you had to create these the sulfurization machines that 577 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: were put on in power plants or in industry, and 578 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:11,200 Speaker 1: you had to create a business model, through either policy 579 00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,480 Speaker 1: or other means, to enable the power plants in the 580 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:19,920 Speaker 1: industries to actually deploy these machines. Does that work in 581 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 1: some way inform how you think about the types of 582 00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:23,800 Speaker 1: solutions that we need. 583 00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:29,760 Speaker 2: I'm glad you're recalling all my youthful experiences with sulfur dioxide. 584 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,520 Speaker 2: I used to say, I think there are important differences. 585 00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:36,880 Speaker 2: We succeeded with sulfur dioxide because there were technological solutions, 586 00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 2: and also, to be frank we got lucky with the 587 00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 2: mergence of natural gas, which which actually was not expected 588 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,080 Speaker 2: by people earlier on in the period, and it was 589 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,799 Speaker 2: a it was a free ride to get emissions down 590 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,560 Speaker 2: in a sense the differences with climate change is that 591 00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:58,880 Speaker 2: greenhouse gas emissions touch every aspect of society, you know. 592 00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,560 Speaker 2: It's like, that's why the climate talks are as difficult 593 00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:05,840 Speaker 2: as trade talks. They just touch absolutely everything. And so 594 00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:10,120 Speaker 2: the solution is not exclusive, does not exclusively lie in 595 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 2: the technological domain, though technology will be important, it also 596 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:19,359 Speaker 2: alies in patterns of consumption behavior almost way the way 597 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:22,719 Speaker 2: that we live our lives. And in the last chapter 598 00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:24,799 Speaker 2: in Working Group three on Mitigation, we had a whole 599 00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:30,080 Speaker 2: chapter devoted to consumption and patterns patterns of behavior, in 600 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:32,800 Speaker 2: which we had the very clear message it's not technology, 601 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:36,279 Speaker 2: it's not people. It's technology and people that interact with 602 00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 2: each other. We need the infrastructure in place, we need 603 00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:43,680 Speaker 2: the technologies available, and needs to be the case that 604 00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 2: people need to make choices in the right direction as well. 605 00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,440 Speaker 1: Now you've been involved in climate science in one form 606 00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 1: or the other for forty years, do you ever see us 607 00:35:54,640 --> 00:36:00,080 Speaker 1: getting on a path where there is universal acceptance in 608 00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:01,080 Speaker 1: the need for climate action. 609 00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:05,719 Speaker 2: I don't pin any hopes on that personally, you know, 610 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,280 Speaker 2: I think it is reasonable to expect and it's coming 611 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:13,360 Speaker 2: in from all sorts of public opinion. Surveys that the 612 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:17,920 Speaker 2: majority of people acknowledge climate change and are concerned about it, 613 00:36:18,360 --> 00:36:22,480 Speaker 2: and that is potentially enough, you know, for ambitious climate 614 00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:23,560 Speaker 2: action to continue. 615 00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,520 Speaker 1: On this podcast, we talk a lot about solutions, and 616 00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:30,120 Speaker 1: often the solutions that come up are renewables, our batteries 617 00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 1: or electric cars. So far we didn't bring them up. 618 00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:39,480 Speaker 1: Are there lesser known areas of progress that people should 619 00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:40,440 Speaker 1: be aware of? Now? 620 00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,319 Speaker 2: The big change over the debt last decade has absolutely 621 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:49,480 Speaker 2: been renewable energy and electrification of demand, principally on the 622 00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,239 Speaker 2: transport side. Now, just to say that all of these 623 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:55,839 Speaker 2: things will only get you a certain distance in if 624 00:36:55,880 --> 00:36:58,440 Speaker 2: you're going to get to targets like one point five 625 00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:00,680 Speaker 2: or even two degrees, you would need to do other 626 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,200 Speaker 2: things as well. And you know, in some ways the 627 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,240 Speaker 2: challenges of the future are even bigger than the ones 628 00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:12,719 Speaker 2: we faced already for renewable energy and electrification or vehicles, 629 00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,160 Speaker 2: because it might involve changes in the way that consumers 630 00:37:16,200 --> 00:37:19,560 Speaker 2: behave what they consume, and it might also involve change 631 00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,640 Speaker 2: in land use practices as well, and they're both areas 632 00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:25,280 Speaker 2: and where we're looking at billions upon billions of people 633 00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 2: that might be affected there, so I mean what I 634 00:37:27,680 --> 00:37:30,759 Speaker 2: always say about renewable energy. I know it's difficult there 635 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,400 Speaker 2: to put in place a deal for a two gigawater 636 00:37:33,680 --> 00:37:39,840 Speaker 2: offshore windsight, but in some ways, ironically it's easier because 637 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,240 Speaker 2: a small number of people can sit on a corporate 638 00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,880 Speaker 2: board and make one big decision that makes a big difference. 639 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:51,320 Speaker 2: The future measures are really smaller scale measures that involve millions, 640 00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,880 Speaker 2: if not billions of people, and that I think is 641 00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:55,280 Speaker 2: where the big challenge lies. 642 00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:59,040 Speaker 1: Let's take cob and capture using storage on which there's 643 00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:04,160 Speaker 1: an ibccrecoming. There was much hope in that technology to 644 00:38:04,200 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: be deployed and used because technically it can work. It 645 00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:11,400 Speaker 1: needs a business model that needs regulation, but it hasn't 646 00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:14,239 Speaker 1: delivered to the extent that models we're hoping it might. 647 00:38:15,000 --> 00:38:17,480 Speaker 1: What lessons can we learn from carbon capture that might 648 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,440 Speaker 1: come up in other technology aspects well. 649 00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:23,880 Speaker 2: I mean, the difference between renewables and carbon culture and 650 00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:28,440 Speaker 2: storage is renewable energy can't get cheaper than fossil energy, 651 00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,920 Speaker 2: but fossil energy with carbon capture can never be cheaper 652 00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:35,839 Speaker 2: than fossil fuel energy on its own, so it's inevitable. 653 00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,080 Speaker 2: Renewable energy has now reached a point where it's starting 654 00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:44,040 Speaker 2: to roll. It's gathered momentum. It's cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives. 655 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:47,040 Speaker 2: Carbon cupture and storage can never be cheaper than the 656 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:52,480 Speaker 2: alternative by definition, so you need much better articulated business 657 00:38:52,560 --> 00:38:57,000 Speaker 2: models and policy signals to make carbon culture and storage work. 658 00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,239 Speaker 2: And you know, some of the initial attempts were by 659 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:04,280 Speaker 2: carbon capture storage to a specific plant. We've now learned 660 00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 2: that you need to look much more towards clusters bringing 661 00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:11,040 Speaker 2: things together. So the thinking is advancing, but it's a 662 00:39:11,080 --> 00:39:15,279 Speaker 2: different kind of technology. For renewables, it's not so replicable 663 00:39:15,440 --> 00:39:19,440 Speaker 2: because it's often applied to specific sites in specific places 664 00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:23,520 Speaker 2: with specific characteristics. So it's unlikely that you're going to 665 00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:27,399 Speaker 2: get the same rapid learning rates for ccs that we 666 00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:28,759 Speaker 2: once said for renewables. 667 00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 1: Thank you, Professor's key, Thank you, and thank you for 668 00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,880 Speaker 1: listening to zero. Now for the sound of the week. 669 00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:46,399 Speaker 1: That is the sound of a European robin singing its 670 00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,279 Speaker 1: spring songs. Spring finally seems to be on its way 671 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:52,279 Speaker 1: here in the UK. If you like this episode, please 672 00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,160 Speaker 1: take a moment to read and review the show on 673 00:39:54,200 --> 00:39:57,920 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, YouTube and Spotify. This episode was produced by 674 00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,680 Speaker 1: Oscar boyd Our theme music is comp by Wonderly Special 675 00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:06,640 Speaker 1: thanks to Olivia Raudgaard, Eric Rosston, Samarsadi, Laura Milan and 676 00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:09,680 Speaker 1: Sharan chan i'm Akshatrati bak Soon