WEBVTT - What's Eating Away at Inheritance Money 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News, Hey.

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<v Speaker 2>Maren Talks Money listeners.

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<v Speaker 1>Last week we had our subscriber event at the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>offices in London. It was wonderful to see so many

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<v Speaker 1>listeners and so many readers there and thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much to those of you who did come to those

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<v Speaker 1>of you who couldn't.

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<v Speaker 2>Good news.

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<v Speaker 1>We spoke to Sebastian Lion of Troy Asset Management and

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<v Speaker 1>that conversation is in the feed already. But we also

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<v Speaker 1>did a Maren Talks Your Money segment live and we

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<v Speaker 1>welcomed back veteran financial advisor Paula Steele. So here is

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<v Speaker 1>that conversation. Now we're going on to the Marin Talks

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<v Speaker 1>Your Money section of the show, and those of you who.

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<v Speaker 2>Listen to us will know what push you'll listen to us.

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<v Speaker 1>But this is the weekly series where we talk more

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<v Speaker 1>personal finance stuff. We talk about how to make the

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<v Speaker 1>most of your money. So with me today you all

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<v Speaker 1>know as John Steppeck Senior, a border and author of

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<v Speaker 1>the Do You Want to Stay Yourself?

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<v Speaker 3>John? What I need to sell Newslayer up?

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you John. Also, we have Paula Steel. He will

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<v Speaker 2>have heard on the podcast as well as well.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm an introducer directorate at John Lamhill Oldridge and very

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<v Speaker 1>very experienced. Now what we want to talk about today,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you Paul for coming on again. What we want

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about today is the Great Wealth Transfer, which

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<v Speaker 1>I'm hoping to be a beneficiary of at some point

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm sure many of the rest of you are

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<v Speaker 1>hoping to be a beneficiary of as well. And I

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<v Speaker 1>spent some time looking today to see exactly how much

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<v Speaker 1>money we can all expect, and it really does depend

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<v Speaker 1>where you look at. Could be four and a half

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<v Speaker 1>trillion over the next twenty years, could be five, could

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<v Speaker 1>be seven pounds in the UK, so proper money. And

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<v Speaker 1>in the US we're up into the hundreds of trillions,

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<v Speaker 1>and we who knows. I found numbers ranging from eighty

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<v Speaker 1>trillion to one hundred and twenty four trillion, So however

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<v Speaker 1>you cut it, we're talking about a lot of money

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<v Speaker 1>trickling down from the baby boomers to the next generation.

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<v Speaker 2>So what we want to talk.

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<v Speaker 1>About is how that money should get transferred. How do

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<v Speaker 1>you do it efficiently, how do you do it with

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<v Speaker 1>the least possible tax implications, and how do you do

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<v Speaker 1>it without destroying the lives of your children by giving

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<v Speaker 1>them too much too soon not something that happened to me. So, Pauler,

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<v Speaker 1>let's say that you are a baby boomer with quite

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of money and a house and a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of kids. Where do you even start with thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>how you transfer it?

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<v Speaker 4>You think about how much money you need to keep, yes,

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<v Speaker 4>before you start to give it away. And I think

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<v Speaker 4>that although the baby boomers we're going to live longer

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<v Speaker 4>and we're going to be very expensive, the last ten

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<v Speaker 4>years of our lives are going to be very, very

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<v Speaker 4>expensive in terms of care, and you can't afford to

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<v Speaker 4>give it away. You need to keep it in terms

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<v Speaker 4>of that. And I say, you know a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>people do it lot of cash for modeling to show

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<v Speaker 4>that you can afford to give it away. My experience

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<v Speaker 4>is that most of the clients are not prepared to

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<v Speaker 4>give away that much because and I think that one

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<v Speaker 4>of the big issues is going to be the change

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<v Speaker 4>in the pensions legislation. Yes, because when the pensions were

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<v Speaker 4>inheritance tax free, they were your third line of defense.

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<v Speaker 4>You always knew that the pension fund was there. It

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<v Speaker 4>was inheritance tax free, so it could go to the kids.

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<v Speaker 4>But if you needed it for care, it was there.

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<v Speaker 4>It was that third line of defense because that that

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<v Speaker 4>care issue for the baby boomer is the big elephant

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<v Speaker 4>in the room.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think that maybe the numbers are just wrong

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<v Speaker 1>because when we talk about four trillion, five billion, and

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<v Speaker 1>six seven trillion, whoever coalates those numbers is not taking

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<v Speaker 1>into account the fact that a lot of people are

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<v Speaker 1>going to spend four or five years any care home

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<v Speaker 1>it's going to cost one hundred and twenty grand a year.

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<v Speaker 4>And the rest, oh okay, in a care home. Maybe

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<v Speaker 4>if you have care at home, probably more right. If

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<v Speaker 4>you need twenty four our care, that's three that's three

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<v Speaker 4>shifts of staff. You're looking at probably twice that, okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So a lot of people who are thinking that they

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<v Speaker 1>have money to hand down and people who are thinking

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<v Speaker 1>they have money to inherit may well not.

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<v Speaker 4>I think you may well find. You know, it comes

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<v Speaker 4>into the assisted dying, which is in Canada where people

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<v Speaker 4>are being pushed and whatever ones you want a sister dying,

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<v Speaker 4>And I personally think I would rather go if I

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<v Speaker 4>was sort of half dead anyway, But nevertheless, but.

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<v Speaker 2>You wouldn't want your kids to make sure you.

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<v Speaker 4>Went okay, you know, but I think that I think

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<v Speaker 4>that the first thing for anybody to think about is

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<v Speaker 4>you're going to have enough money for care. I was

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<v Speaker 4>talking somdly fun Enough the other day, and they were saying,

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<v Speaker 4>it's a great place that we don't have a product

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<v Speaker 4>that enables us to spend our pension, but gives us

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<v Speaker 4>an income if we are if we survive to a

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<v Speaker 4>sage ninety, because that's really what the pension was there for.

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<v Speaker 4>It was giving you that longevity support so effectively.

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<v Speaker 2>A delayed annuity of sometimes yeah, it.

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<v Speaker 4>Used to call a contingent annuity doesn't exist in the

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<v Speaker 4>market anymore. Sadly, it would be an interesting thing.

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<v Speaker 1>Interesting that feels like the kind of product that might

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<v Speaker 1>be coming back in the same way as the innuity

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<v Speaker 1>market might be coming back.

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<v Speaker 4>I think the innuity market is back, is it? But

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<v Speaker 4>it's back in terms of an investment proposition, it's a

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<v Speaker 4>different way of buying a fixed interest investment, getting a

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<v Speaker 4>much better return. You're getting a fixed return and you're

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<v Speaker 4>playing the longevity. For the client or for the advisors,

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<v Speaker 4>they're playing the longevity the longevity game. I remember a

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<v Speaker 4>client doing a next to release on his parents who

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<v Speaker 4>were very elderly, and him saying, I'm doing an extry release.

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to buy an annuity because that handles my

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<v Speaker 4>longevity risk on my parents' wealth, So which I thought

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<v Speaker 4>was quite tough, actually.

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<v Speaker 3>Has that is the annunity.

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<v Speaker 5>If I've partly been helped by Patons and Helen's tax coming,

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<v Speaker 5>then is that something that's in people's mains.

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<v Speaker 4>I think people are given that the pension fund is

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<v Speaker 4>now going to be you know, I've had people saying

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<v Speaker 4>before it was tax free and now it's going to

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<v Speaker 4>pay tax at sixty seven percent. It was never tax free.

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<v Speaker 4>It was tax free from an inheritance tax perspective. But

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<v Speaker 4>this to get to sixty seven percent, you've got a

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<v Speaker 4>forty percent and then a forty five percent tax rate

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<v Speaker 4>to get it out. The forty five percent tax rate

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<v Speaker 4>to get it out if you died post seventy five

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<v Speaker 4>was always there, but it.

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<v Speaker 1>Provided options but to your heirs right and they can

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<v Speaker 1>take it. They could withdraw from it when they had

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<v Speaker 1>a lower encarment or lots of ways to make it

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<v Speaker 1>a low tax event a lower.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, no, because once you died, the pension fund had

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<v Speaker 4>to go to somebody at that point. So you couldn't

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<v Speaker 4>say your dad dies and you couldn't say, well, I'll

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<v Speaker 4>have it. Actually no, I think I wanted to go

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<v Speaker 4>down to the grandchildren. You had to make a decision

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<v Speaker 4>at that point. It wasn't it was, but it stayed.

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<v Speaker 2>In the wrapper.

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<v Speaker 1>It's good with that for it at will. So you

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<v Speaker 1>could choose to withdraw from it. You can show income

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<v Speaker 1>period in your life.

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<v Speaker 2>You could.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, you could choose to withdraw it a lower and

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<v Speaker 4>you can still choose to withdraw it as a lower thing,

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<v Speaker 4>so you won't be paying sixty seven percent. I have

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<v Speaker 4>seen more angry people about this, you know adell story.

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<v Speaker 4>I've got a client and she's I don't know how

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<v Speaker 4>they are. She's coming up to eighty and she's incandescent.

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<v Speaker 4>She has one hundred and twenty five thousand pounds in

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<v Speaker 4>her pension fund, and that is her money for her grandchildren.

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<v Speaker 4>The fact there worth twenty five million isn't neither here

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<v Speaker 4>all that.

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<v Speaker 2>Should spend it on herself. Definitely, but nonetheless.

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<v Speaker 1>So if you know that you're going to be paying

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<v Speaker 1>that amount of tax, your family's going to be paying

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<v Speaker 1>that amount of tax, you may as well buy annuity

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<v Speaker 1>and have the security of that income flow upfront.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think, and I think people will start to

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<v Speaker 4>spend their pension funds down. Which if they are going

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<v Speaker 4>to do that, there are two things in terms of efficiency.

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<v Speaker 4>First of all, if you're joining income out of a

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<v Speaker 4>pension fund, it is income if it is surplus income.

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<v Speaker 4>And I've got clients who are joining and out paying

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<v Speaker 4>the tax forty five percent tax, better than sixty seven

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<v Speaker 4>percent tax, but it then gives them income which they

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<v Speaker 4>can then give away. And because it is now a

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<v Speaker 4>surplace income, it's clearly surplus income because they didn't have

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<v Speaker 4>it before and they were living perfectly comfortably, they can

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<v Speaker 4>give it away and it's immediately inheritance tax free.

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<v Speaker 2>So you'll split it. You're stripping it over say.

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<v Speaker 4>Three or five years, and I think it certainly we're

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<v Speaker 4>seeing clients that are doing that kind of thing. But

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<v Speaker 4>you need to do that. You need to have enough

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<v Speaker 4>other assets. You're having to rethink your assets so that

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<v Speaker 4>you are then thinking about, Okay, what I'm going to

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<v Speaker 4>do is I'm going to spend this pot of money,

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<v Speaker 4>but that will then mean that I've got this pot here.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So it's a general reshaping of the way you

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<v Speaker 2>do it. It's reshaping. So let's go back to.

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<v Speaker 1>Our our couple worried about their care bills and they've

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<v Speaker 1>decided how much they need to keep, and that they've

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<v Speaker 1>got a pot that they want to give away. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 1>the best way to do that is just to give

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<v Speaker 1>it away and not die for seven years.

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<v Speaker 4>You'll buy an insurance policy to cover it.

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<v Speaker 2>Can you buy insure?

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<v Speaker 1>You buy an insurance quality to cover that, an expensive one,

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<v Speaker 1>presumably depending on your edge depends how old.

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<v Speaker 4>You asked about six percent of your eighty, about one

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<v Speaker 4>percent of your seventy, and you pay that over seven years.

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<v Speaker 4>So it's one percent over seven years. If you're seventy,

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's cheap. Yeah, that does sound quite cheap.

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<v Speaker 4>It's quite expensive if you're eighty. Yes, more more problematical

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<v Speaker 4>is that you've got to pass a medical.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh and okay, so there's only one percent if you're

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<v Speaker 1>very healthy.

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<v Speaker 4>You have healthy The insurance companies didn't put the price

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<v Speaker 4>of life insurance up post COVID. What they did was

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<v Speaker 4>they increased the bar. So where before we would have

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<v Speaker 4>got standard rates for somebody, now they'll load the premium

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<v Speaker 4>by fifty percent, so they've changed the pricing without looking

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<v Speaker 4>as though they've changed the pricing.

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<v Speaker 2>Good marketing.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, definitely, Okay, So give it away by an insurance policy.

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<v Speaker 4>Give it away and give buy an insurance policy.

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<v Speaker 2>What about bringing it in a trust.

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<v Speaker 4>If you're going to put it in a trust, if

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<v Speaker 4>it is agricultural land or business assets. Business assets are

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<v Speaker 4>trading businesses which are unquoted, So there's a which is

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<v Speaker 4>not property assets. If you constitute yourself as a builder,

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<v Speaker 4>that is a trade. If you are holding assets for rent,

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<v Speaker 4>then it is not a trading asset. I always say

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<v Speaker 4>that's the easiest way to remember, because everybody knows what

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<v Speaker 4>the builder is, and they know what holding an asset

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<v Speaker 4>is for rent. So if it's a building, if it's

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<v Speaker 4>a trading asset, and you give it away into a

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<v Speaker 4>trust before the fifth of April, I haven't got long hair,

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<v Speaker 4>have I got wrong, then you will not pay You

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<v Speaker 4>will be able to transfer it without any tax.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>The neurals after the after what's only allows to that

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<v Speaker 1>million pounds?

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<v Speaker 4>They know that's only on death. You will be paying

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<v Speaker 4>a ten percent entry charge on those assets. You've got

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<v Speaker 4>three hundred and twenty five thousands of allowance which you

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<v Speaker 4>can reuse every seven years. But apart from that, you

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<v Speaker 4>will pay the ten percent as a lifetime entry charge,

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<v Speaker 4>and you don't. The allowance is only on death. It's

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<v Speaker 4>not a lifetime. It's all that's worth the bother de friends,

0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:11.640
<v Speaker 4>how much you care about what the tax? I think

0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:13.600
<v Speaker 4>you have some clients.

0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:16.719
<v Speaker 2>Men didn't say.

0:12:17.480 --> 0:12:22.120
<v Speaker 4>I largely spend my life doing life insurance and we

0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:25.559
<v Speaker 4>look after a very large number of very large estates.

0:12:25.960 --> 0:12:29.240
<v Speaker 4>And for them, inheritance tax and the transitioning of the

0:12:29.280 --> 0:12:32.800
<v Speaker 4>wealth to the next generation is a key driver for them.

0:12:33.520 --> 0:12:35.760
<v Speaker 4>And they know who's going to inherit it from the

0:12:35.800 --> 0:12:41.480
<v Speaker 4>time that probably something is born, and they spend a

0:12:41.520 --> 0:12:43.920
<v Speaker 4>great deal of time and they buy insurance to cover it,

0:12:44.080 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 4>and they are making huge gifts of transfer of assets

0:12:48.040 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 4>now and they care very much. I have other clients

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.400
<v Speaker 4>who maybe have made the wealth and they care very

0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.920
<v Speaker 4>much about income tax and capital against tax, and they

0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:01.760
<v Speaker 4>don't care about inheritance tax because from their perspective, what

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:06.480
<v Speaker 4>the children. They started with nothing, and they don't tend

0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:09.240
<v Speaker 4>to then care of their children. They get sixty percent

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:13.920
<v Speaker 4>feet they'll be well off. That changes when they get

0:13:13.920 --> 0:13:21.600
<v Speaker 4>grandchildren when staggeringly well, they're not prepared to earn their

0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:24.640
<v Speaker 4>own children by giving them loads of money. They're delighted

0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:29.680
<v Speaker 4>to the grandchildren and children. I've had lots of clients

0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.160
<v Speaker 4>who you know, you've talked to for years and said, well,

0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.239
<v Speaker 4>you ought to be thinking about giving it away.

0:13:34.320 --> 0:13:34.680
<v Speaker 1>No.

0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:39.240
<v Speaker 4>No, And particularly if it's business assets, there's much more

0:13:39.240 --> 0:13:42.560
<v Speaker 4>of a problem because the giving away of the business

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.760
<v Speaker 4>assets is about succession in the business and transfer, and

0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 4>that's all about do you trust the children to do

0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.760
<v Speaker 4>the transfer? Is that going to be appropriate? Are they

0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.319
<v Speaker 4>appropriate for running the business? Are they interested in running

0:13:54.320 --> 0:13:57.160
<v Speaker 4>the business, all those other things. So you may or

0:13:57.240 --> 0:14:00.320
<v Speaker 4>may not want to give the asset away if it's

0:14:00.360 --> 0:14:03.800
<v Speaker 4>a business asset and you don't want to earn them,

0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:06.080
<v Speaker 4>and they must get on with their lives. And then

0:14:06.120 --> 0:14:09.560
<v Speaker 4>these grandchildren arrive and boo if.

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:11.920
<v Speaker 2>They go, hof they go, it's all different.

0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:16.040
<v Speaker 1>And if that's skipping a generation a good way to go.

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:22.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean that surely caused some friction between parents and

0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.840
<v Speaker 1>their next generation if the money skips a generation.

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:30.480
<v Speaker 4>I haven't really seen that because I think if it's

0:14:30.480 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 4>going down a generation, that the generations are being skipped

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:41.000
<v Speaker 4>tend to be involved. I think I think, as with

0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:43.800
<v Speaker 4>all of these things, it's all about communication, because.

0:14:43.600 --> 0:14:45.960
<v Speaker 1>I suspect, as we were talking about this earlier, that

0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 1>there's there's a there's a this missing generation when it

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 1>comes to pensions, which is people born born sort of

0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.800
<v Speaker 1>late sixties to late eighties or middle eighties, people who

0:14:56.840 --> 0:14:59.760
<v Speaker 1>missed out on having a defined benefit pension and then

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.080
<v Speaker 1>had no pension provision at all until the introduction of

0:15:03.120 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>water enrollment and so have pretty much no pench and

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 1>provision at all and will generally be relying on inheritance

0:15:09.080 --> 0:15:10.800
<v Speaker 1>to get through their last twenty years and pay for

0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:15.160
<v Speaker 1>that care. So it would makes sense if the boomers

0:15:15.240 --> 0:15:17.160
<v Speaker 1>left their money to that generation.

0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:22.200
<v Speaker 4>They might all want might not realize that the boomers

0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:27.520
<v Speaker 4>need the money. Well, no, no, because money has a

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:32.760
<v Speaker 4>you have a reference point. My father who's dead would

0:15:32.800 --> 0:15:36.440
<v Speaker 4>be one hundred almost now. But when he started working,

0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 4>he earned fifty pounds a year working in Lloyds in London,

0:15:42.560 --> 0:15:46.240
<v Speaker 4>and then you know, his first pay rise went to

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:47.680
<v Speaker 4>two hundred and fifty pounds a year.

0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:49.080
<v Speaker 2>But it's very difficult, is.

0:15:49.080 --> 0:15:51.960
<v Speaker 4>You spend two pounds fifty buying a cuff of coffee

0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.840
<v Speaker 4>on the way to work for him to understand that

0:15:56.040 --> 0:15:59.320
<v Speaker 4>he moved his reference point up. But I think that's

0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:02.200
<v Speaker 4>that's in terms of the transfer of wealth. I think

0:16:02.400 --> 0:16:05.760
<v Speaker 4>that that reference point that the children, you know, the

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:08.400
<v Speaker 4>children have got fifty thousand a year or so, they're

0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 4>fine because in their reference point, there's a point at

0:16:13.880 --> 0:16:16.600
<v Speaker 4>which people stick yeahering.

0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.120
<v Speaker 1>There's probably an educational need on both sides, right, And

0:16:20.160 --> 0:16:24.280
<v Speaker 1>one of the things that you mentioned the inheritance is

0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:27.800
<v Speaker 1>systems of bigger states and families that have been rich

0:16:27.840 --> 0:16:30.240
<v Speaker 1>for generations have a system for passing wealth down and

0:16:30.280 --> 0:16:32.440
<v Speaker 1>an education system as well for the recipients.

0:16:32.720 --> 0:16:33.880
<v Speaker 2>But most people don't.

0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 1>You know, it's relatively new, this idea that a lot

0:16:36.960 --> 0:16:38.600
<v Speaker 1>of people will have money to pass down and a

0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:41.880
<v Speaker 1>lot of people will inherit and there's an education gap

0:16:41.920 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 1>possibly on both sides.

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:49.320
<v Speaker 4>Yes, I think so, And I think that it was

0:16:49.360 --> 0:16:53.840
<v Speaker 4>never talked about it So within the biggest states, it's

0:16:53.880 --> 0:16:57.360
<v Speaker 4>talked about as a commercial thing. It's part of the

0:16:57.360 --> 0:17:00.000
<v Speaker 4>commercial planning for the estate. They're very long term investment,

0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:06.160
<v Speaker 4>and it's very long term planning and people are involved

0:17:06.200 --> 0:17:09.400
<v Speaker 4>in it, and they also are quite good if they

0:17:09.480 --> 0:17:12.840
<v Speaker 4>have a generation who aren't, who aren't maybe very commercial,

0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:16.440
<v Speaker 4>they're quite good at finding a way around that, so

0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.199
<v Speaker 4>that then they just get an income and they're not

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:23.879
<v Speaker 4>going to impact on the estate, not impact on the business.

0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:27.760
<v Speaker 4>But it's a commercial, it's a commercial thing. They have

0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:30.600
<v Speaker 4>a whole ramp of advisors who talk about it, and

0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:33.879
<v Speaker 4>you just join that conversation which has gone on for years.

0:17:34.480 --> 0:17:36.679
<v Speaker 4>I think what's much more difficult is if you've suddenly

0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:39.879
<v Speaker 4>got what's really quite a lot of wealth and you

0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:42.879
<v Speaker 4>don't have that sort of range of advisors and you

0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 4>don't have that forum, which is we discuss, you know,

0:17:47.960 --> 0:17:50.680
<v Speaker 4>how we're investing for the long term. We discuss it,

0:17:50.760 --> 0:17:53.480
<v Speaker 4>and we do it at the annual at the annual

0:17:53.480 --> 0:17:56.719
<v Speaker 4>meeting at least. And there's almost always a trust so

0:17:56.760 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 4>there are always external people. They're called the trustee, and

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:04.920
<v Speaker 4>they're probably outside the family.

0:18:05.840 --> 0:18:08.520
<v Speaker 1>So how do you educate a new generation of inherited

0:18:09.240 --> 0:18:12.000
<v Speaker 1>the fabulous opportunity for the wealth management community, right.

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:16.080
<v Speaker 4>I think they're trying. I think the wealth management community

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.000
<v Speaker 4>is trying, but I think they're trying more to get

0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:26.200
<v Speaker 4>to the much younger ones. Certainly, the wealth management industry

0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:32.000
<v Speaker 4>is going to lose. As things stand, they keep about

0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.720
<v Speaker 4>twenty five percent of the wealth when people die and.

0:18:37.560 --> 0:18:42.360
<v Speaker 1>Their population, so they get the cash. They go around

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:43.920
<v Speaker 1>with the wealth manager and they say, will you be

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:45.919
<v Speaker 1>looking after that gorgeously for forty years, but now I'll

0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:46.119
<v Speaker 1>have it.

0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:46.520
<v Speaker 2>Yep.

0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:49.240
<v Speaker 4>Because they pay off the mortgage, they hand the money

0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.320
<v Speaker 4>on to the next generation. They get the children on too,

0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:56.160
<v Speaker 4>they pay off their student loans. They get the grandchildren

0:18:56.200 --> 0:19:00.479
<v Speaker 4>onto because they don't need it, and if they do

0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:02.960
<v Speaker 4>need it, they've got their own managers.

0:19:04.080 --> 0:19:05.760
<v Speaker 2>Or swoop it up. That seemed to me, I was

0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:07.120
<v Speaker 2>going to ask you. That seems to me to.

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:09.640
<v Speaker 1>Be one of the best possible ways to pass down

0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:13.320
<v Speaker 1>some inheritance is to pay for all your grandchildren to

0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:15.320
<v Speaker 1>go to university and pay all their living expenses so

0:19:15.359 --> 0:19:17.840
<v Speaker 1>they don't leave with one of these awful that John

0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:18.960
<v Speaker 1>conducting is about all the time.

0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.560
<v Speaker 4>It's not tax deductible for an inheritance tax. If you

0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.359
<v Speaker 4>pay your children's education, that is not considered a gift

0:19:26.560 --> 0:19:31.040
<v Speaker 4>for the inheritance tax. If you pay your grandchildren's education,

0:19:31.680 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 4>that is a gift, So it goes on the clock.

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 2>Even if they're a surplus income. That's the way to

0:19:36.560 --> 0:19:36.760
<v Speaker 2>do it.

0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.399
<v Speaker 4>Well, if it's if you can create the surplus income yet.

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:40.800
<v Speaker 2>Then you can do it.

0:19:40.880 --> 0:19:43.560
<v Speaker 4>You used to give people who used to give grandchildren

0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:46.439
<v Speaker 4>quite a bit of money under deed of government and

0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:49.760
<v Speaker 4>then which was a way to make it very tax efficient,

0:19:50.200 --> 0:19:51.480
<v Speaker 4>but that was then shut down.

0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:55.680
<v Speaker 2>Nothing left is that everything's been shut down.

0:19:56.840 --> 0:20:01.000
<v Speaker 4>You buy insurance just to pay the tax, so paid

0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.920
<v Speaker 4>the premium every year rather than paying forty percent of

0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:07.680
<v Speaker 4>the bullet. You do think about putting some of it

0:20:07.800 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 4>into trust. You can fund an insurance policy by drawing

0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:16.919
<v Speaker 4>money as the pension fund. That's very efficient, and then

0:20:16.920 --> 0:20:17.600
<v Speaker 4>you give it away.

0:20:18.119 --> 0:20:20.560
<v Speaker 1>Okay. Ask a final question, do you think it's a

0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 1>good tax, inheritance tax?

0:20:23.840 --> 0:20:26.160
<v Speaker 4>I think that's from where you are on the political spectrum.

0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.359
<v Speaker 4>If you believe in the redistribution of wealth, then I

0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:38.000
<v Speaker 4>think it probably redistributes wealth. If you think that people

0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:42.240
<v Speaker 4>have worked terribly hard and paid an awful of tax

0:20:42.320 --> 0:20:43.719
<v Speaker 4>to have accumulate his money.

0:20:44.680 --> 0:20:46.000
<v Speaker 2>That's what makes Peel very.

0:20:45.880 --> 0:20:53.000
<v Speaker 1>Cross Chavan who'd like to see inheritance tax abolished for

0:20:53.040 --> 0:20:58.760
<v Speaker 1>those who aren't here, I say that's about forty percent. Yeah, yeah,

0:20:58.800 --> 0:21:00.840
<v Speaker 1>I'm surprised that the young are putting up their hands.

0:21:00.960 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 2>You did inherit more. You know, if it was it

0:21:03.359 --> 0:21:08.200
<v Speaker 2>was abolished, not less, it'll be good. I have to

0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 2>leave it there.

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:10.520
<v Speaker 1>Although I didn't ask John, John, should it be abolished?

0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:12.400
<v Speaker 2>Bad?

0:21:12.960 --> 0:21:15.560
<v Speaker 5>I think in the moment, yes, yes, it's too it's

0:21:15.560 --> 0:21:17.800
<v Speaker 5>too long. And don't think what is too many people

0:21:17.840 --> 0:21:21.800
<v Speaker 5>at the low end, you know the thresholders. Yeah, there

0:21:21.840 --> 0:21:26.920
<v Speaker 5>are too many people panic in the wrong about it.

0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:28.480
<v Speaker 2>You shouldn't exactly.

0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:30.760
<v Speaker 4>There are an awful lot of people and they will

0:21:30.800 --> 0:21:34.439
<v Speaker 4>spend quite a lot of it. That that's when people

0:21:34.480 --> 0:21:36.639
<v Speaker 4>really get into a panic is when you look at

0:21:36.680 --> 0:21:37.840
<v Speaker 4>the care costs.

0:21:38.600 --> 0:21:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's not talk about care anymore. And I'm going

0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:43.920
<v Speaker 1>to add one of these sessions on and up. Let's

0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:45.600
<v Speaker 1>just end it with you can all go out and

0:21:45.600 --> 0:21:46.160
<v Speaker 1>buy insurance.

0:21:46.200 --> 0:21:47.480
<v Speaker 2>You don't have inheritance tax.

0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:51.960
<v Speaker 1>But well, brilliant and Paula, thank you so much, Thank.

0:21:51.840 --> 0:22:04.080
<v Speaker 2>You so much. The last bit.

0:22:04.160 --> 0:22:06.320
<v Speaker 1>So this is the question answered session. John's going to

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:08.280
<v Speaker 1>stay here because I know you always have questions for him.

0:22:08.520 --> 0:22:10.520
<v Speaker 1>And we've got Moreena coming up to join us. She

0:22:10.640 --> 0:22:13.639
<v Speaker 1>is on our Markets Live team. And I think you've

0:22:13.640 --> 0:22:15.440
<v Speaker 1>probably all had been when I was speaking before, because

0:22:15.440 --> 0:22:16.720
<v Speaker 1>she's been on You've been quite a few of the

0:22:16.760 --> 0:22:20.160
<v Speaker 1>Friday round ups, haven't you. Yes, yeah, excellent, so all

0:22:20.160 --> 0:22:22.840
<v Speaker 1>things markets, and you've given us some really brilliant contributions.

0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:26.639
<v Speaker 1>So let's just start with a question just view about

0:22:27.480 --> 0:22:29.280
<v Speaker 1>I mean markets, we've talked about a bit of Sebastian,

0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:31.200
<v Speaker 1>but what I think we're really interested in is interest

0:22:31.280 --> 0:22:34.160
<v Speaker 1>rates where we might expect them to go next. We've

0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:36.280
<v Speaker 1>got quite a lot of questions about mortgages and that

0:22:36.359 --> 0:22:39.439
<v Speaker 1>kind of thing, So let's start. Their expectations have changed

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:41.200
<v Speaker 1>quite a lot over the last few weeks, haven't they.

0:22:41.320 --> 0:22:44.840
<v Speaker 6>Yes, they have, particularly from the end of last month

0:22:45.359 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 6>into March. Of course, with the conflict escalating in the

0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:54.880
<v Speaker 6>Middle East, we had seen markets expecting more too full

0:22:55.359 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 6>quarter point cuts from Bank of England this year, with

0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:03.240
<v Speaker 6>quite a strong chance of that happening this week. Since

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:08.280
<v Speaker 6>the invasion, that has quite dramatically reversed. At one point

0:23:08.480 --> 0:23:12.040
<v Speaker 6>we really had a full cut priced in, sorry Paul,

0:23:12.160 --> 0:23:15.680
<v Speaker 6>hike priced in for the year and that's pared back

0:23:15.720 --> 0:23:20.320
<v Speaker 6>a little bit, but market startles still looking quite hawkish

0:23:20.440 --> 0:23:22.760
<v Speaker 6>at the moment. We've got about fifty percent chance of

0:23:22.800 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 6>a hike priced in so it's really quite a dramatic change,

0:23:28.119 --> 0:23:30.679
<v Speaker 6>although I think some people maybe feel that that's a

0:23:30.720 --> 0:23:35.800
<v Speaker 6>little extreme. You know, Whether the Bank of England actually

0:23:35.840 --> 0:23:39.760
<v Speaker 6>feel that what's happening justifies a hike at this point

0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:44.000
<v Speaker 6>is certainly something that will be looking very closely to

0:23:44.160 --> 0:23:47.560
<v Speaker 6>them and what they say on Thursday. They may be

0:23:47.640 --> 0:23:52.880
<v Speaker 6>looking to temper some of those those fears. They had

0:23:52.960 --> 0:23:56.520
<v Speaker 6>for a very long time been expressing their desire to

0:23:56.880 --> 0:24:00.560
<v Speaker 6>cut rates and the question was really just about the pace.

0:24:00.720 --> 0:24:05.200
<v Speaker 6>So whether their approach is completely changed, I think what

0:24:05.359 --> 0:24:08.040
<v Speaker 6>we'll have to see. But it's quite early days to

0:24:08.119 --> 0:24:12.680
<v Speaker 6>be pricing, you know, that far ahead. But I think

0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:14.320
<v Speaker 6>we're looking for things to stay on hold for quite

0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:14.800
<v Speaker 6>some time.

0:24:15.000 --> 0:24:16.919
<v Speaker 1>And as Sebastian answers, there's quite a lot of room here

0:24:16.920 --> 0:24:18.879
<v Speaker 1>for policy mistake in both directions.

0:24:19.400 --> 0:24:21.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, John, I mean yeah.

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:25.199
<v Speaker 5>I think the fact that the problem is oil and

0:24:25.200 --> 0:24:28.120
<v Speaker 5>the oil price rise is it's both inflationary in terms

0:24:28.119 --> 0:24:30.520
<v Speaker 5>of it drives up the consumer price index, but it's

0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:35.120
<v Speaker 5>also very disinflationary because it's staple's money from people's pockets,

0:24:35.560 --> 0:24:38.920
<v Speaker 5>so or rather not disinflationary so much as recessionary. So

0:24:39.080 --> 0:24:40.879
<v Speaker 5>the longer it goes on for the more likely we

0:24:41.000 --> 0:24:43.760
<v Speaker 5>get some kind of stag inflation. But equally the problem

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:45.679
<v Speaker 5>is the Bank of England's only get one target, and

0:24:45.720 --> 0:24:48.040
<v Speaker 5>it's CPI at two percent, and they haven't had it

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:50.080
<v Speaker 5>for six years now, and so.

0:24:50.160 --> 0:24:52.000
<v Speaker 2>They changed that target, isn't it well?

0:24:52.200 --> 0:24:54.680
<v Speaker 5>I mean, I think they would look quite late to

0:24:54.680 --> 0:24:57.080
<v Speaker 5>I mean, some people think that it's a daft idea,

0:24:58.160 --> 0:25:00.000
<v Speaker 5>and to a great extent I kind of agree with that,

0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:03.600
<v Speaker 5>except that you need some kind of target, and the

0:25:03.640 --> 0:25:05.720
<v Speaker 5>problem is if you change it, then they'll just make

0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:09.359
<v Speaker 5>life easier for themselves. So I can see almost that,

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.040
<v Speaker 5>I can see a policy mistake, and I do think

0:25:12.080 --> 0:25:14.240
<v Speaker 5>it would be a mistakes put up interest rates. I

0:25:14.240 --> 0:25:18.119
<v Speaker 5>can see it almost happening as a result embarrassment and

0:25:18.160 --> 0:25:20.960
<v Speaker 5>a sort of commitment to this idea that doesn't inflation

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:25.400
<v Speaker 5>expectations channel the you know, because inflation is too high,

0:25:25.480 --> 0:25:27.840
<v Speaker 5>we keep thinking it's going to keep being high, even

0:25:27.840 --> 0:25:30.359
<v Speaker 5>though I don't actually I kin I struggle with I

0:25:30.400 --> 0:25:33.440
<v Speaker 5>don't think that's how people actually generally think about inflation.

0:25:34.680 --> 0:25:38.280
<v Speaker 5>It's a long story short, Yeah, it's not ideal. I

0:25:38.280 --> 0:25:40.920
<v Speaker 5>think the bank will probably hold this week because they'll

0:25:40.920 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 5>want to you know, keep their options open.

0:25:43.280 --> 0:25:45.639
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, a difficult people. We have one question ken in

0:25:45.720 --> 0:25:49.560
<v Speaker 1>earlier about buying houses. Is this a good time to

0:25:49.560 --> 0:25:50.280
<v Speaker 1>buy a house?

0:25:53.359 --> 0:25:57.160
<v Speaker 6>I think that's an incredibly difficult, a very difficult question

0:25:57.240 --> 0:25:59.040
<v Speaker 6>to answer or anything. What we would always say on

0:25:59.080 --> 0:26:00.600
<v Speaker 6>the blog and John I would just talking about this

0:26:00.720 --> 0:26:04.639
<v Speaker 6>earlier and ultimately you know it's the right time, when

0:26:04.680 --> 0:26:06.040
<v Speaker 6>it's actually the right time for you to do it,

0:26:06.080 --> 0:26:09.760
<v Speaker 6>because it's not it's not a speculative asset for most people,

0:26:09.760 --> 0:26:12.679
<v Speaker 6>it's actually somewhere you live, and there's a lot of

0:26:12.680 --> 0:26:15.200
<v Speaker 6>other considerations that come into account. But in terms of

0:26:15.240 --> 0:26:18.960
<v Speaker 6>the actual mortgage rates, I mean the way in which

0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:21.720
<v Speaker 6>mortgage is the price. We have been seeing that rising

0:26:22.320 --> 0:26:26.359
<v Speaker 6>and we have also seen lenders actually increasing their rates,

0:26:26.400 --> 0:26:30.199
<v Speaker 6>but not a huge amount. Some have actually reported to

0:26:30.280 --> 0:26:33.879
<v Speaker 6>us that they've been encouraging people who are coming up

0:26:33.920 --> 0:26:35.960
<v Speaker 6>to refinance to perhaps do it now and not in

0:26:36.040 --> 0:26:39.120
<v Speaker 6>six months time. So it is seen as actually a

0:26:39.160 --> 0:26:43.840
<v Speaker 6>good time in the context of the uncertainty ahead. But

0:26:43.960 --> 0:26:47.360
<v Speaker 6>at the same time, I think, as we were discussing earlier,

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:51.240
<v Speaker 6>we're seeing some of those expectations for the Bank of England,

0:26:51.320 --> 0:26:53.920
<v Speaker 6>you know, calming down a little bit, and you know

0:26:53.960 --> 0:26:55.760
<v Speaker 6>you wouldn't want to jump the gone on a major

0:26:56.000 --> 0:26:59.280
<v Speaker 6>decision I think purely based on a couple of weeks

0:26:59.680 --> 0:27:02.280
<v Speaker 6>of very fraud uncertainty.

0:27:02.840 --> 0:27:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Because John, here's one fear. I think you probably agree

0:27:04.920 --> 0:27:06.960
<v Speaker 1>with all that on houses. But here's here's something you

0:27:06.960 --> 0:27:10.000
<v Speaker 1>write about all the time, which is UK equities. Right

0:27:10.440 --> 0:27:13.240
<v Speaker 1>with the UK stuck between weak growth and physical constraints,

0:27:13.280 --> 0:27:15.480
<v Speaker 1>do you think markets are still giving too much benefit

0:27:15.520 --> 0:27:17.400
<v Speaker 1>of the doubt to UK assets.

0:27:18.760 --> 0:27:20.480
<v Speaker 2>It's interesting when looking at.

0:27:20.359 --> 0:27:22.200
<v Speaker 1>It, the fifty one hundred is one of the very

0:27:22.200 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 1>few developed markets that's still up on the year, considerably

0:27:25.400 --> 0:27:25.719
<v Speaker 1>on the air.

0:27:26.280 --> 0:27:28.359
<v Speaker 5>I mean the first one hundred to think makes sense

0:27:29.080 --> 0:27:32.800
<v Speaker 5>to be less vulnerable, I mean still down since the

0:27:33.000 --> 0:27:35.520
<v Speaker 5>war kicked off, despite the factskoot oil and.

0:27:35.520 --> 0:27:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Resources not that is.

0:27:36.880 --> 0:27:39.760
<v Speaker 5>But the firstly one hundred I think, you know is

0:27:40.119 --> 0:27:42.199
<v Speaker 5>if you're going to be in equities, that's not the

0:27:42.320 --> 0:27:46.040
<v Speaker 5>worst place to be. The two fifty and the kind

0:27:46.080 --> 0:27:48.560
<v Speaker 5>of UK mid caps and smaller caps. I know that

0:27:48.600 --> 0:27:52.359
<v Speaker 5>we've can have been broadly bullish in the UK assets

0:27:52.520 --> 0:27:55.359
<v Speaker 5>and think that they've been possibly hip with the ugly

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:59.520
<v Speaker 5>stick too much. At the same time, there is you know,

0:27:59.880 --> 0:28:04.920
<v Speaker 5>they have come some way. We do have this problem

0:28:05.000 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 5>that you know, we are quite vulnerable. I absolutely don't

0:28:09.520 --> 0:28:13.040
<v Speaker 5>want to catastrophize, but you know, the kind of Geltz

0:28:13.080 --> 0:28:17.640
<v Speaker 5>market is quite sensitive to changes. We still in force

0:28:17.680 --> 0:28:21.920
<v Speaker 5>that are kind of stricken by political uncertainty. People had

0:28:22.000 --> 0:28:23.720
<v Speaker 5>hoped and I must have been it was kind of

0:28:23.720 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 5>one of those. Certainly, well they give the new government

0:28:25.560 --> 0:28:27.280
<v Speaker 5>the benefit of the doubt, kind of hope that that

0:28:27.400 --> 0:28:28.200
<v Speaker 5>was going to go away.

0:28:28.520 --> 0:28:29.440
<v Speaker 3>Clearly it hasn't.

0:28:29.960 --> 0:28:34.840
<v Speaker 5>In May obviously, obviously Kirs Stammer's position has flipped off

0:28:34.880 --> 0:28:37.600
<v Speaker 5>the front pages because we've got other things taken over.

0:28:37.920 --> 0:28:40.120
<v Speaker 5>But come to May local elections, I think it's pretty

0:28:40.120 --> 0:28:43.040
<v Speaker 5>clear that you know, there's going to be a pretty

0:28:43.080 --> 0:28:48.120
<v Speaker 5>nasty outcome for the incumbents and that will again raise

0:28:48.240 --> 0:28:50.560
<v Speaker 5>questions or whether have we got the right guy leading

0:28:50.600 --> 0:28:52.920
<v Speaker 5>the party just now? Is it worth the risky of

0:28:53.000 --> 0:28:56.440
<v Speaker 5>changing it? So I guess I can see there's a

0:28:56.440 --> 0:28:59.600
<v Speaker 5>lot of pain points coming up for the UK that

0:28:59.600 --> 0:29:03.080
<v Speaker 5>I hope where I'm going to be an issue.

0:29:03.280 --> 0:29:04.440
<v Speaker 3>There are there are so.

0:29:04.480 --> 0:29:07.320
<v Speaker 1>Many questions on on UK credibility coming in.

0:29:07.680 --> 0:29:11.440
<v Speaker 5>Absolutely, I mean the same thing, you know, companies have companies,

0:29:11.480 --> 0:29:14.880
<v Speaker 5>and companies just have to put up this stuff. You know,

0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:17.560
<v Speaker 5>we've been through plenty of kind of traumatic times before,

0:29:18.160 --> 0:29:21.520
<v Speaker 5>and the companies themselves are not hugely expensive relative to

0:29:21.520 --> 0:29:24.880
<v Speaker 5>their own history. One issue with the two fifty, I

0:29:24.960 --> 0:29:26.520
<v Speaker 5>guess is a lot of things like hostpeild doesn't know

0:29:26.520 --> 0:29:29.960
<v Speaker 5>at that are quite cyclical. I don't I'm not ready

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:35.560
<v Speaker 5>to give up point UK equities yet, but maybe agent closerly.

0:29:35.520 --> 0:29:37.600
<v Speaker 2>Aging closer to not being so bullish.

0:29:37.840 --> 0:29:39.680
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, And we did have probably all listened to the

0:29:39.800 --> 0:29:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Edward Chancellor podcast earlier this week and one of the

0:29:43.000 --> 0:29:45.640
<v Speaker 1>things that he said was if you're looking for a

0:29:46.080 --> 0:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>place to invest, maybe didn't choose the place was incredibly

0:29:49.280 --> 0:29:51.720
<v Speaker 1>high electricity costs and there's no chance that they might

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:54.840
<v Speaker 1>be coming down because it's just a bad signal. And

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:56.920
<v Speaker 1>that did that did make us go, yeah, maybe we

0:29:56.920 --> 0:29:59.800
<v Speaker 1>should be slightly slightly less positive. Are there any questions

0:29:59.800 --> 0:30:01.760
<v Speaker 1>in the because we've got mics. I've got loads of

0:30:01.840 --> 0:30:04.080
<v Speaker 1>questions here, but I'd much prefer to take them from

0:30:04.280 --> 0:30:09.480
<v Speaker 1>from the room if you have them. Really, okay, one

0:30:09.480 --> 0:30:12.080
<v Speaker 1>of the bag here, thank you, There is a mic

0:30:12.840 --> 0:30:13.800
<v Speaker 1>coming to you.

0:30:15.440 --> 0:30:18.760
<v Speaker 7>I how do you view the strategy of treating a

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:22.920
<v Speaker 7>guaranteed pension from like a workplace pension as a proxy

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:29.719
<v Speaker 7>for a fixed income allocation, thereby justifying one hundred equity strategy.

0:30:29.600 --> 0:30:33.480
<v Speaker 2>In a portfolio very young to have a dB pension, so.

0:30:33.480 --> 0:30:35.800
<v Speaker 7>Like a workplace pension. So using that as like if

0:30:35.840 --> 0:30:39.440
<v Speaker 7>you had a ninety ten portfolio, your workplace pension or

0:30:39.480 --> 0:30:40.320
<v Speaker 7>your is your bond.

0:30:42.120 --> 0:30:45.280
<v Speaker 5>So it's not a dB pension. It's not a guaranteed no,

0:30:45.400 --> 0:30:48.640
<v Speaker 5>not guarante topic sex pension. Yet I guess that that's

0:30:48.680 --> 0:30:53.080
<v Speaker 5>really just a question about your your asset allocation. I mean,

0:30:53.120 --> 0:30:55.960
<v Speaker 5>if you're told me yourself and that thing been to

0:30:56.600 --> 0:30:59.960
<v Speaker 5>you not given personal financial ad face, we can't do that.

0:31:00.840 --> 0:31:03.040
<v Speaker 5>But through all I thumb is the younger you are,

0:31:03.120 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 5>the more risk you can take. So you know, I

0:31:06.440 --> 0:31:09.800
<v Speaker 5>mean even my age is like thefty ish fifty ish,

0:31:09.960 --> 0:31:14.280
<v Speaker 5>so coy I would, you know, And I'm kind of

0:31:14.320 --> 0:31:17.000
<v Speaker 5>mostly inequities because I'm thinking it's going to at least

0:31:17.000 --> 0:31:19.080
<v Speaker 5>twenty or years before retire, so I may as well

0:31:19.120 --> 0:31:22.280
<v Speaker 5>take the maximum ament risk that kind of you know,

0:31:22.800 --> 0:31:24.479
<v Speaker 5>it's so I can get the maximum growth.

0:31:25.600 --> 0:31:28.040
<v Speaker 1>But nonetheless, a workplace pension if there's not a guaranteed

0:31:28.080 --> 0:31:32.080
<v Speaker 1>income is also equity. There's not a replacement for it's

0:31:32.120 --> 0:31:32.720
<v Speaker 1>the same thing.

0:31:32.760 --> 0:31:33.880
<v Speaker 3>It's just the same thing.

0:31:34.440 --> 0:31:37.120
<v Speaker 1>It's sole equity exposure in the main, unless it's lifestyled

0:31:37.120 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 1>into bonds as you age. Yeah.

0:31:40.480 --> 0:31:44.080
<v Speaker 7>I was treating it as a form of like lifetime capital.

0:31:45.240 --> 0:31:48.320
<v Speaker 7>So it's kind of guaranteed as long as you're still

0:31:48.480 --> 0:31:52.760
<v Speaker 7>in a career. So that would act as your safety net.

0:31:52.960 --> 0:31:55.160
<v Speaker 7>So then that allows someone young like me to be

0:31:55.360 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 7>fully risk onde.

0:31:57.080 --> 0:31:58.720
<v Speaker 1>I suppose what you mean is that you would have

0:31:58.760 --> 0:32:02.000
<v Speaker 1>a higher risk equity portfolio out with your webs.

0:32:02.360 --> 0:32:04.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, that makes some sense.

0:32:04.920 --> 0:32:06.800
<v Speaker 3>That sounds theological, I think.

0:32:07.720 --> 0:32:10.240
<v Speaker 1>But but just to be clear, it's still an equity portfolio.

0:32:10.480 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, likely lower risk equity portfolio.

0:32:13.160 --> 0:32:16.240
<v Speaker 1>Still don't have a bond style balancer, and you'll be

0:32:16.280 --> 0:32:16.960
<v Speaker 1>needing some gold.

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:20.640
<v Speaker 2>Thank you for that question.

0:32:21.000 --> 0:32:23.640
<v Speaker 1>Listen, there's quite a few questions on does the does

0:32:23.680 --> 0:32:29.480
<v Speaker 1>the UK need a crisis? Will the government change they

0:32:29.520 --> 0:32:32.280
<v Speaker 1>do we need Do you think that that maybe you

0:32:32.320 --> 0:32:34.080
<v Speaker 1>can have a go at this point? Do you think

0:32:34.080 --> 0:32:36.520
<v Speaker 1>the UK needs a crisis something similar to the UK's

0:32:36.560 --> 0:32:39.640
<v Speaker 1>IMF bailad in the late seventies for policymakers to confront

0:32:39.720 --> 0:32:43.440
<v Speaker 1>the underlying issues with the economy, energy policy, taxes, et cetera.

0:32:43.640 --> 0:32:46.160
<v Speaker 1>In other words, do things need to get worse before

0:32:46.200 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 1>they get better? And there are a couple of others

0:32:48.760 --> 0:32:52.360
<v Speaker 1>along the same zone, the same thing about the bond

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:54.720
<v Speaker 1>market and the extent which we might destroy it by

0:32:54.720 --> 0:32:57.120
<v Speaker 1>cutting yels, et cetera. And we have had this conversation

0:32:57.440 --> 0:33:00.680
<v Speaker 1>that things eventually they'll get so that they have.

0:33:00.680 --> 0:33:01.400
<v Speaker 3>To get better.

0:33:02.360 --> 0:33:05.600
<v Speaker 6>I mean, things haven't been good for quite a long time.

0:33:06.120 --> 0:33:09.840
<v Speaker 6>I think if you look at the longer dated guilt yields,

0:33:09.920 --> 0:33:13.320
<v Speaker 6>you know, we saw them hitting sort of nineteen ninety

0:33:13.360 --> 0:33:18.400
<v Speaker 6>eight levels earlier in the year, and that suggests that

0:33:18.440 --> 0:33:21.240
<v Speaker 6>we haven't really recovered actually from what we saw in

0:33:21.280 --> 0:33:25.040
<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty two with the mini budget. Actually, things have

0:33:25.080 --> 0:33:28.600
<v Speaker 6>been getting a bit better this year until this recent

0:33:30.360 --> 0:33:33.680
<v Speaker 6>sort of turmoil, which is a global one. But actually

0:33:33.680 --> 0:33:36.920
<v Speaker 6>their longer data to guilds haven't been too badly affected

0:33:36.920 --> 0:33:41.160
<v Speaker 6>in contact, so I wouldn't say that we've sort of

0:33:41.280 --> 0:33:46.560
<v Speaker 6>reached a point where things have got much better. Whether

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:48.800
<v Speaker 6>they could get worse, I mean, I think they always could,

0:33:49.120 --> 0:33:51.320
<v Speaker 6>and I don't know what the answer is to that,

0:33:51.400 --> 0:33:53.880
<v Speaker 6>except that I think to Joins point, there is a

0:33:53.880 --> 0:33:56.920
<v Speaker 6>lot of uncertainty. We've seen quite a lot of political

0:33:57.000 --> 0:34:00.600
<v Speaker 6>risk priced in, and so I suppose is something that

0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:03.200
<v Speaker 6>would add to that and stabilize it further.

0:34:04.520 --> 0:34:07.280
<v Speaker 2>Do we need it, John? Do we need a crisis

0:34:07.360 --> 0:34:08.640
<v Speaker 2>if we muddle alone?

0:34:10.360 --> 0:34:12.520
<v Speaker 1>It seels to me like the bit where we can

0:34:12.640 --> 0:34:14.120
<v Speaker 1>just keep muddling is nearly over.

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:15.080
<v Speaker 3>No, I think so.

0:34:15.160 --> 0:34:17.759
<v Speaker 5>And I actually think where we make it a crisis

0:34:18.719 --> 0:34:23.319
<v Speaker 5>is in energy provision or infrastructure, because we've already seen

0:34:23.360 --> 0:34:27.920
<v Speaker 5>things like I'm from live near Tunby's Wells and thankfully

0:34:28.000 --> 0:34:30.320
<v Speaker 5>didn't get caught up, but like you know, the water

0:34:30.440 --> 0:34:32.520
<v Speaker 5>system was out in like a major town. It's just

0:34:32.560 --> 0:34:35.319
<v Speaker 5>probably something you kind of live there or thereabouts for

0:34:35.480 --> 0:34:37.799
<v Speaker 5>you know, the best part of like six weeks. And

0:34:37.840 --> 0:34:39.759
<v Speaker 5>that was nothing to do with it was nothing to

0:34:39.800 --> 0:34:41.880
<v Speaker 5>be cyber attacks, it was nothing to do we you know,

0:34:42.000 --> 0:34:44.080
<v Speaker 5>warfare or anything like that. It was it was just

0:34:44.200 --> 0:34:48.839
<v Speaker 5>degraded kind of facilities, back management, whatever it was. And

0:34:49.200 --> 0:34:52.080
<v Speaker 5>you know, we've got the highest industrial electricity prices kind

0:34:52.080 --> 0:34:54.840
<v Speaker 5>of pretty much in the world, and you got it

0:34:54.880 --> 0:34:57.160
<v Speaker 5>turn around and think, well, what happens if we keep

0:34:57.160 --> 0:34:59.840
<v Speaker 5>on going down the pathway that leads away from me

0:35:00.280 --> 0:35:04.319
<v Speaker 5>security and towards kind of like energy speculation, you know,

0:35:04.520 --> 0:35:06.320
<v Speaker 5>kind of maybe overloading their grid with kind.

0:35:06.160 --> 0:35:07.960
<v Speaker 3>Of renewable assets before it's ready.

0:35:08.360 --> 0:35:09.960
<v Speaker 5>Not saying that's a bad thing, but you know, we

0:35:10.280 --> 0:35:13.200
<v Speaker 5>got to kind of take you know, baby steps towards

0:35:13.200 --> 0:35:16.200
<v Speaker 5>this stuff, and then maybe we start seeing things like

0:35:16.239 --> 0:35:19.480
<v Speaker 5>you know, extensive blackouts or the sort of thing that

0:35:19.600 --> 0:35:25.800
<v Speaker 5>gets people properly worried and makes us make some hard.

0:35:25.719 --> 0:35:27.840
<v Speaker 3>Decisions about where we need to focus.

0:35:28.080 --> 0:35:30.120
<v Speaker 5>I think something like that actually probably more than a

0:35:30.200 --> 0:35:33.840
<v Speaker 5>guilts market crisis is actually more likely where there it

0:35:33.960 --> 0:35:35.920
<v Speaker 5>really is a sense that things have fallen apart.

0:35:37.000 --> 0:35:41.120
<v Speaker 1>Okay, christ is then yeah, proper pace question right here

0:35:41.120 --> 0:35:41.600
<v Speaker 1>in the front.

0:35:44.320 --> 0:35:45.640
<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to answer some quickly.

0:35:45.960 --> 0:35:47.719
<v Speaker 1>Do you think we will see a massive exodus from

0:35:47.719 --> 0:35:49.640
<v Speaker 1>the UK of the high ending individuals in light of

0:35:49.640 --> 0:35:51.440
<v Speaker 1>the punitive labor government tax policies.

0:35:51.520 --> 0:35:53.560
<v Speaker 2>I think we already have, but we might see that.

0:35:53.480 --> 0:35:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Decline because there's nowhere to go now, is there coming.

0:35:57.719 --> 0:35:58.359
<v Speaker 2>Back on going?

0:35:58.680 --> 0:36:00.439
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it's Ryan Swin.

0:36:00.480 --> 0:36:02.440
<v Speaker 8>I'm a mortgage advisor, so I wanted to bring it

0:36:02.440 --> 0:36:05.719
<v Speaker 8>back to the housing market if possible it seems to

0:36:05.719 --> 0:36:08.600
<v Speaker 8>me that there's a huge scope on Thursday for surprises

0:36:08.640 --> 0:36:11.200
<v Speaker 8>from the Bank coming not because of necessarily a policy move,

0:36:11.640 --> 0:36:14.719
<v Speaker 8>but because of what they say. If it appears there's

0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:17.760
<v Speaker 8>consensus that because of the energy crisis now they're inclined

0:36:17.800 --> 0:36:20.279
<v Speaker 8>to raise rates that could push bond yelds up much

0:36:20.320 --> 0:36:22.160
<v Speaker 8>higher than we've gone so far. But they might also

0:36:22.200 --> 0:36:24.359
<v Speaker 8>say they're still inclined to raise races, which you could

0:36:24.360 --> 0:36:26.200
<v Speaker 8>push yields down. So I just want to know what

0:36:26.239 --> 0:36:27.959
<v Speaker 8>your take is, what do you expect them to say,

0:36:28.520 --> 0:36:31.120
<v Speaker 8>and you know, what are the risks for the housing

0:36:31.120 --> 0:36:32.799
<v Speaker 8>market the rest of the year as you see it.

0:36:35.800 --> 0:36:38.279
<v Speaker 6>I mean from my perspective, you know, I can look

0:36:38.320 --> 0:36:41.680
<v Speaker 6>at what the market are saying, and they have seemed

0:36:41.760 --> 0:36:45.160
<v Speaker 6>quite actually uncertain. So whilst I said that they'd moved

0:36:45.160 --> 0:36:47.200
<v Speaker 6>towards pricing in a hike, you know, they've moved back again,

0:36:47.239 --> 0:36:50.319
<v Speaker 6>and we've also seen that fluctuate in both directions just

0:36:50.360 --> 0:36:53.160
<v Speaker 6>in the last few trading sessions. So I would say

0:36:53.160 --> 0:36:57.719
<v Speaker 6>there's a huge amount of uncertainty. The only real indications

0:36:57.719 --> 0:37:00.640
<v Speaker 6>we've heard from the bank last week we had Alan

0:37:00.719 --> 0:37:05.839
<v Speaker 6>Taylor speaking and he said that if the oil price

0:37:05.840 --> 0:37:09.040
<v Speaker 6>spike sort of stayed where it was for just a

0:37:09.040 --> 0:37:10.440
<v Speaker 6>few weeks. Then by the time we get to the

0:37:10.520 --> 0:37:12.800
<v Speaker 6>end of the year, it wouldn't necessarily make any difference

0:37:13.080 --> 0:37:16.759
<v Speaker 6>to overall CPI, But of course we're already moving on

0:37:16.800 --> 0:37:18.400
<v Speaker 6>and things maybe look like they're going to be a

0:37:18.400 --> 0:37:21.000
<v Speaker 6>bit more protracted. So I think there's going to be

0:37:21.040 --> 0:37:23.080
<v Speaker 6>a huge amount of uncertainty, and the bank do tend

0:37:23.120 --> 0:37:26.799
<v Speaker 6>to be quite cautious in that. I don't think they're

0:37:26.840 --> 0:37:29.600
<v Speaker 6>going to be looking to say anything that's going to

0:37:29.600 --> 0:37:34.120
<v Speaker 6>trigger extreme market reactions. I think how they vote will

0:37:34.160 --> 0:37:37.960
<v Speaker 6>be very important. You know, we're expecting it to be

0:37:37.960 --> 0:37:41.839
<v Speaker 6>a hold, but whether anybody feels like it's worth sort

0:37:41.840 --> 0:37:45.560
<v Speaker 6>of stepping out of that consensus view will be interesting.

0:37:45.560 --> 0:37:48.360
<v Speaker 6>And now we get the commentary published as well, and

0:37:48.480 --> 0:37:51.040
<v Speaker 6>of course their guidance, you know, changing and wording to

0:37:51.080 --> 0:37:54.279
<v Speaker 6>the guidance and just really anything and their inflation you know,

0:37:54.360 --> 0:37:56.640
<v Speaker 6>predictions as well. For the rest of the year, I

0:37:56.680 --> 0:37:59.680
<v Speaker 6>think really going to be incredibly closely watched. But I

0:38:00.040 --> 0:38:03.600
<v Speaker 6>probably had to say that we'll see now big surprises

0:38:03.640 --> 0:38:07.399
<v Speaker 6>because I think they'll probably want to try and give

0:38:07.400 --> 0:38:10.320
<v Speaker 6>a massive stability housing market.

0:38:10.080 --> 0:38:12.120
<v Speaker 5>John, Yeah, I mean, I think I agree with you

0:38:12.120 --> 0:38:13.680
<v Speaker 5>more when I don't think they're going to want to

0:38:13.760 --> 0:38:16.320
<v Speaker 5>rattle the horses that this meeting. I think the April

0:38:16.320 --> 0:38:19.399
<v Speaker 5>one will be the scarier one because if you're still

0:38:19.400 --> 0:38:20.960
<v Speaker 5>going on by that point, they're going to actually have

0:38:21.000 --> 0:38:24.080
<v Speaker 5>to commit in some sort of direction. As far as

0:38:24.120 --> 0:38:27.000
<v Speaker 5>the housing market goes, I mean it really boys down again.

0:38:27.000 --> 0:38:30.160
<v Speaker 5>If you're buying a house for yourself, then there are

0:38:30.200 --> 0:38:32.520
<v Speaker 5>so many other factors that mark more it is a

0:38:32.520 --> 0:38:33.400
<v Speaker 5>buyer's market.

0:38:33.400 --> 0:38:34.839
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think that's one thing I would say.

0:38:34.960 --> 0:38:37.040
<v Speaker 5>You know, and this, if anything, makes it more of

0:38:37.080 --> 0:38:40.120
<v Speaker 5>a buyer's market, because you know, you can turn around

0:38:40.160 --> 0:38:40.920
<v Speaker 5>people and say.

0:38:40.719 --> 0:38:42.120
<v Speaker 3>Well, you know there's a barrow and you know he's

0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:43.440
<v Speaker 3>not going to get many other buyers.

0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:46.920
<v Speaker 5>So I sort of feel that from that point of view,

0:38:47.239 --> 0:38:49.320
<v Speaker 5>if you are a buyer, you're probably in a decent

0:38:49.360 --> 0:38:51.880
<v Speaker 5>position as long as you've got all the usual stuff,

0:38:51.880 --> 0:38:53.799
<v Speaker 5>you know, get your mortgage lined up, make sure you

0:38:53.800 --> 0:38:57.560
<v Speaker 5>get enough money, that kind of thing. And also if

0:38:57.560 --> 0:38:59.239
<v Speaker 5>you're buying in London, which I think is where the

0:38:59.320 --> 0:39:02.920
<v Speaker 5>question came from. The I mean, the London housing market

0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:06.400
<v Speaker 5>is basically flat for about a decade now, and probably

0:39:06.480 --> 0:39:10.640
<v Speaker 5>a nice of the town in real terms. So I mean,

0:39:10.840 --> 0:39:12.680
<v Speaker 5>what can it go the world? You know, of course

0:39:12.680 --> 0:39:14.560
<v Speaker 5>I can go through it. But at the same time,

0:39:14.880 --> 0:39:17.200
<v Speaker 5>you know, you're not buying when it's at the peak,

0:39:18.600 --> 0:39:20.000
<v Speaker 5>if you're worried about that kind of thing.

0:39:20.320 --> 0:39:21.919
<v Speaker 1>But the market across the board, I mean, it is

0:39:21.760 --> 0:39:24.080
<v Speaker 1>just interesting, isn't it. And we're talking disapascination about the

0:39:24.400 --> 0:39:26.799
<v Speaker 1>turn in yields and interest rates starting to go up

0:39:26.800 --> 0:39:29.200
<v Speaker 1>and interest rate normalizing, and now we're moving into an

0:39:29.239 --> 0:39:31.640
<v Speaker 1>environment we can easily expect rates to stick around the

0:39:32.040 --> 0:39:34.120
<v Speaker 1>three thousand year historical normal four.

0:39:34.000 --> 0:39:34.720
<v Speaker 2>To five percent.

0:39:35.120 --> 0:39:38.080
<v Speaker 1>And only just now is it really beginning to turn

0:39:38.160 --> 0:39:39.799
<v Speaker 1>up in all the asset classes that you would have

0:39:39.880 --> 0:39:42.560
<v Speaker 1>expected it to turn up in a few years back, So.

0:39:42.600 --> 0:39:43.719
<v Speaker 2>Housing being one of them.

0:39:43.760 --> 0:39:46.440
<v Speaker 1>You know, house prices were ridiculously high on the basis

0:39:46.480 --> 0:39:50.320
<v Speaker 1>of a very, very free and easy capital.

0:39:50.320 --> 0:39:52.080
<v Speaker 2>We don't have those things anymore. You begin to see

0:39:52.080 --> 0:39:52.719
<v Speaker 2>the housing.

0:39:52.480 --> 0:39:54.719
<v Speaker 1>Market crack, You start to see the private actuity market crack,

0:39:54.760 --> 0:39:57.480
<v Speaker 1>you start to see private credit crack. All these things

0:39:57.480 --> 0:40:00.720
<v Speaker 1>are a function of this regime change in in yields,

0:40:00.880 --> 0:40:03.840
<v Speaker 1>and I find it so interesting that it's taken so long.

0:40:04.239 --> 0:40:06.200
<v Speaker 1>You know, we started talking about all these things, well

0:40:06.200 --> 0:40:08.000
<v Speaker 1>this will crack, and that'll crag, and this will crag

0:40:08.239 --> 0:40:11.280
<v Speaker 1>three four years ago. But it's just it's much slower

0:40:11.320 --> 0:40:13.400
<v Speaker 1>than you think. But of course it's slower than you

0:40:13.560 --> 0:40:17.360
<v Speaker 1>think in the asset classes that are not particularly liquid

0:40:17.440 --> 0:40:21.319
<v Speaker 1>and not particularly transparent and housing, well, obviously it's not

0:40:21.440 --> 0:40:24.200
<v Speaker 1>the same kind of asset price class as private credit

0:40:24.280 --> 0:40:26.560
<v Speaker 1>and private equity. It has the same dynamics when it

0:40:26.560 --> 0:40:29.960
<v Speaker 1>comes to liquidity and transparency. That was an attempt to

0:40:30.000 --> 0:40:32.080
<v Speaker 1>answer another five questions in a while.

0:40:33.840 --> 0:40:35.719
<v Speaker 2>Because there are quite a few abouts. Did you have

0:40:35.760 --> 0:40:37.480
<v Speaker 2>private credits, did you have private equity?

0:40:37.520 --> 0:40:40.120
<v Speaker 1>How should you hold infrastructure inside your portfolio? And the

0:40:40.160 --> 0:40:42.000
<v Speaker 1>answer I would say from all of us is with

0:40:42.080 --> 0:40:47.400
<v Speaker 1>extreme care, Sebastian nodding, with extreme care. You know, we

0:40:47.440 --> 0:40:49.440
<v Speaker 1>feel very strongly, John and I will I do anyway

0:40:49.920 --> 0:40:53.320
<v Speaker 1>that if you're going to hold pretty much any asset,

0:40:53.320 --> 0:40:56.400
<v Speaker 1>you should hold it in the most transparent way way possible,

0:40:56.440 --> 0:40:58.360
<v Speaker 1>Which is why we are those great fans of the

0:40:58.400 --> 0:41:00.880
<v Speaker 1>listed markets over the private mind. Because you want to

0:41:00.880 --> 0:41:02.839
<v Speaker 1>be able to trade something, you want to be able

0:41:02.840 --> 0:41:04.520
<v Speaker 1>to understand it, you want to be able to talk

0:41:04.560 --> 0:41:06.560
<v Speaker 1>to the directors all these things, and you can do

0:41:06.600 --> 0:41:08.640
<v Speaker 1>that and listed markets in a very different way. And

0:41:08.719 --> 0:41:11.279
<v Speaker 1>of course listed markets react much more quickly, so that

0:41:11.560 --> 0:41:14.839
<v Speaker 1>that covers pretty much all of those anything else. From

0:41:14.840 --> 0:41:16.520
<v Speaker 1>the floor, there were a couple at the back there.

0:41:16.520 --> 0:41:21.000
<v Speaker 9>I think, thank you, Hi Field job, thank you for this,

0:41:21.360 --> 0:41:24.759
<v Speaker 9>and just wanted to ask, if you assume a new

0:41:25.320 --> 0:41:30.160
<v Speaker 9>investor no equity exposure to begin with, very young, and

0:41:30.239 --> 0:41:33.239
<v Speaker 9>they were looking at having a split of UK and

0:41:34.120 --> 0:41:39.280
<v Speaker 9>American ETF, how would you think about framing the question

0:41:39.440 --> 0:41:46.240
<v Speaker 9>of do you hedge the US ETF back into pound

0:41:46.320 --> 0:41:50.080
<v Speaker 9>sterling or do you just leave it in American dollars

0:41:50.120 --> 0:41:53.719
<v Speaker 9>to roll up in that US side of the investments.

0:41:54.200 --> 0:41:56.359
<v Speaker 1>I think you're going to make your life far too

0:41:56.360 --> 0:41:59.080
<v Speaker 1>complicated by even thinking about that. When you invest in

0:41:59.120 --> 0:42:00.719
<v Speaker 1>a country, you take the car do risk at the

0:42:00.760 --> 0:42:04.000
<v Speaker 1>same time there they come as a package. So I

0:42:04.040 --> 0:42:06.719
<v Speaker 1>would never begin to start trying to, particularly in a

0:42:07.200 --> 0:42:10.600
<v Speaker 1>small young portfolio, to start trying to hedge that away.

0:42:10.640 --> 0:42:12.080
<v Speaker 1>But maybe the others have a different view.

0:42:13.040 --> 0:42:14.000
<v Speaker 3>I don't at all.

0:42:14.040 --> 0:42:14.080
<v Speaker 8>No.

0:42:14.239 --> 0:42:16.839
<v Speaker 5>I think the four X exposures is one of those

0:42:16.880 --> 0:42:20.719
<v Speaker 5>things that goes into the buffet too hard bucket and

0:42:20.760 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 5>if you are, by and part and also part of

0:42:22.600 --> 0:42:26.560
<v Speaker 5>the benefit of investment overseas is you do get that diversity.

0:42:27.480 --> 0:42:29.399
<v Speaker 5>So you know, you get the dollar as well as

0:42:29.400 --> 0:42:33.080
<v Speaker 5>the pound exposure, and you know often the dollar or

0:42:33.160 --> 0:42:36.080
<v Speaker 5>so often in recent years, you know, having dollar exposures

0:42:36.080 --> 0:42:39.120
<v Speaker 5>been a good thing for stelling investor. At some point

0:42:39.239 --> 0:42:41.680
<v Speaker 5>it probably wouldn't be the best thing, but it's not

0:42:41.840 --> 0:42:43.359
<v Speaker 5>something they worry about on top of all the other

0:42:43.440 --> 0:42:45.800
<v Speaker 5>things that go into choosing that in the first place.

0:42:46.880 --> 0:42:48.400
<v Speaker 1>We have run out of time, but I'm still going

0:42:48.440 --> 0:42:50.560
<v Speaker 1>to take another question to see because I don't think we've.

0:42:50.440 --> 0:42:53.840
<v Speaker 2>Done quite enough on the back here. Thank you.

0:42:54.080 --> 0:42:56.280
<v Speaker 1>There is a question, by the way, and here about

0:42:57.200 --> 0:42:59.720
<v Speaker 1>do you have any thoughts on the upcoming SpaceX ipo

0:42:59.719 --> 0:43:02.200
<v Speaker 1>and we'll this lead to Tesla merging with SpaceX down

0:43:02.239 --> 0:43:04.840
<v Speaker 1>the road. Now, I'm not going to answer that one

0:43:05.080 --> 0:43:09.000
<v Speaker 1>because Cassy Word has answered it for us, and you

0:43:09.000 --> 0:43:11.960
<v Speaker 1>can listen to my podcast with her on Monday and

0:43:12.000 --> 0:43:13.360
<v Speaker 1>you can hear the answer to that.

0:43:13.440 --> 0:43:15.399
<v Speaker 2>I'm not going to tell you, so you will listen

0:43:15.440 --> 0:43:16.000
<v Speaker 2>to the podcast.

0:43:16.600 --> 0:43:19.120
<v Speaker 10>Question So, prior to the events in the Middle East,

0:43:19.120 --> 0:43:21.120
<v Speaker 10>obviously one of the dominant conversations in the in the

0:43:21.160 --> 0:43:25.359
<v Speaker 10>markets was around cracks and private credit and elevated valuations

0:43:25.400 --> 0:43:28.400
<v Speaker 10>in sort of AI boom equities, And in one of

0:43:28.400 --> 0:43:30.520
<v Speaker 10>your recent podcasts there was sort of a conversation about

0:43:30.520 --> 0:43:34.160
<v Speaker 10>a potential catastrophic event pulling the rug under those valuations

0:43:34.239 --> 0:43:38.480
<v Speaker 10>in AI equities and you know, potential inflationary impact and downstream.

0:43:38.800 --> 0:43:42.000
<v Speaker 10>Do you see a prolonged situation of conflict in the

0:43:42.000 --> 0:43:45.680
<v Speaker 10>Middle East as one of those potential scenarios causing a

0:43:45.680 --> 0:43:49.080
<v Speaker 10>crash in those you know, and an adjustment in those equities.

0:43:49.200 --> 0:43:50.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, it easily could be.

0:43:50.400 --> 0:43:52.879
<v Speaker 1>And that's the thing with any any kind of any

0:43:52.960 --> 0:43:55.759
<v Speaker 1>kind of bubble level of valuation. You don't know, you

0:43:55.920 --> 0:43:57.480
<v Speaker 1>never know what it's going to be, but it's going

0:43:57.560 --> 0:43:59.800
<v Speaker 1>to be something, So yes, that could be it. But again,

0:44:00.120 --> 0:44:02.680
<v Speaker 1>I got to listen to Kathy because we talk about

0:44:02.719 --> 0:44:04.839
<v Speaker 1>that quite a lot in the podcast with her about what.

0:44:04.840 --> 0:44:06.319
<v Speaker 2>It might be. But of course she doesn't believe it

0:44:06.320 --> 0:44:06.880
<v Speaker 2>will be anything.

0:44:06.920 --> 0:44:09.120
<v Speaker 1>She believes that all those stocks will grow into their

0:44:09.160 --> 0:44:11.960
<v Speaker 1>evaluations over the next few years and this this won't happen,

0:44:11.960 --> 0:44:13.440
<v Speaker 1>but that that very rarely happens.

0:44:13.480 --> 0:44:15.840
<v Speaker 2>That's very rarely. The answer to over priced stocks. The

0:44:15.880 --> 0:44:17.719
<v Speaker 2>answer is is usually that they fall.

0:44:18.200 --> 0:44:21.480
<v Speaker 1>Anything to add to that, John or Mollana No.

0:44:22.440 --> 0:44:26.440
<v Speaker 5>I think, yeah, yeah, the one thing I see the

0:44:26.440 --> 0:44:28.239
<v Speaker 5>private schedit thing, and this is something I'm curious about

0:44:28.360 --> 0:44:30.680
<v Speaker 5>him when the audience is an expert on this and

0:44:30.800 --> 0:44:33.319
<v Speaker 5>do police come up with the chatters after? But I

0:44:33.320 --> 0:44:35.880
<v Speaker 5>still don't quite see because some people have mentioned that

0:44:35.880 --> 0:44:37.279
<v Speaker 5>would have been kind of like two thousand and eight,

0:44:37.360 --> 0:44:39.880
<v Speaker 5>two and seven, and that always kind of, you know,

0:44:40.040 --> 0:44:41.759
<v Speaker 5>raises a lot on bells because obviously two thousand and

0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:44.560
<v Speaker 5>eight was pretty charastrophic. But I don't quite see yet

0:44:44.719 --> 0:44:47.439
<v Speaker 5>how we get from sure a lot of these things

0:44:47.480 --> 0:44:50.080
<v Speaker 5>could go bad, or how do we get from that

0:44:50.200 --> 0:44:53.920
<v Speaker 5>to infect in the entire financial system. I believe there

0:44:53.960 --> 0:44:56.399
<v Speaker 5>is a sort of like insurance and go there. Even then,

0:44:56.440 --> 0:44:58.600
<v Speaker 5>I'm still struggling to see exactly how that goes to,

0:44:59.040 --> 0:45:01.439
<v Speaker 5>you know, not being able to get cash out your ATM,

0:45:01.680 --> 0:45:04.880
<v Speaker 5>you know, one Friday kind of morning. Yeah, I was

0:45:04.920 --> 0:45:08.240
<v Speaker 5>just if anyone thinks they wanted that one, then please come.

0:45:08.120 --> 0:45:08.400
<v Speaker 2>Up to me.

0:45:08.680 --> 0:45:11.320
<v Speaker 1>Okay, I'm going to allow one more question, but please,

0:45:11.360 --> 0:45:13.200
<v Speaker 1>can it be something to which we can answer in

0:45:13.239 --> 0:45:16.000
<v Speaker 1>an upbeat manner, because I want to finish this on

0:45:16.080 --> 0:45:17.960
<v Speaker 1>an up. We finished every session on a low. You

0:45:17.960 --> 0:45:18.920
<v Speaker 1>look like a happy person.

0:45:19.080 --> 0:45:19.480
<v Speaker 2>Go for it.

0:45:23.840 --> 0:45:27.360
<v Speaker 8>Change What one policy change could a UK government do

0:45:27.520 --> 0:45:29.640
<v Speaker 8>that would turbo charge our economy?

0:45:30.400 --> 0:45:33.160
<v Speaker 2>You can't sol on that zero that's on net zero.

0:45:36.800 --> 0:45:38.680
<v Speaker 6>If you're talking about the housing market, i'mus like, get

0:45:38.680 --> 0:45:39.480
<v Speaker 6>her of stamp duty?

0:45:40.000 --> 0:45:40.520
<v Speaker 2>Great one.

0:45:40.760 --> 0:45:43.279
<v Speaker 5>I can't believe you both took my man options next

0:45:43.360 --> 0:45:44.520
<v Speaker 5>zero stamp duty?

0:45:45.680 --> 0:45:45.919
<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

0:45:46.040 --> 0:45:49.120
<v Speaker 5>No, God, that is a really good one, don't. That's

0:45:49.160 --> 0:45:51.880
<v Speaker 5>a kill off for these marginal tax rates. That's the

0:45:51.920 --> 0:45:55.440
<v Speaker 5>other irritating one. So like when somebody turns over a

0:45:55.520 --> 0:45:57.239
<v Speaker 5>hundred ground, they immediately jump up to a.

0:45:57.200 --> 0:45:58.239
<v Speaker 3>Six percent tax rate.

0:46:00.040 --> 0:46:02.040
<v Speaker 5>And also and that the other said as well, because

0:46:02.080 --> 0:46:04.719
<v Speaker 5>whenever your own benefits, if you get a job, or

0:46:04.760 --> 0:46:06.759
<v Speaker 5>you get a job going over a certain nobody else,

0:46:06.920 --> 0:46:09.880
<v Speaker 5>you get a similarly in seeing marginal tax right and

0:46:09.920 --> 0:46:11.600
<v Speaker 5>whether you know and know that, people say, oh you're

0:46:11.600 --> 0:46:13.279
<v Speaker 5>still getting for what ep, you're still getting there, You're

0:46:13.280 --> 0:46:14.280
<v Speaker 5>still get a bit more money.

0:46:14.440 --> 0:46:15.000
<v Speaker 3>It's not.

0:46:15.360 --> 0:46:17.600
<v Speaker 5>It definitely holds people back and spoken to people that

0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:20.080
<v Speaker 5>can have both ends the spectrum who are put off

0:46:20.360 --> 0:46:23.759
<v Speaker 5>extras by those marginal tax so get rid of them.

0:46:23.800 --> 0:46:25.000
<v Speaker 5>I think it would be really helpful.

0:46:25.400 --> 0:46:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Okay, so counselor a lot of taxes, sort out the

0:46:27.920 --> 0:46:28.640
<v Speaker 1>tax system.

0:46:28.480 --> 0:46:30.440
<v Speaker 2>Get rid of that zero, make life cheaper.

0:46:30.640 --> 0:46:33.759
<v Speaker 1>Okay, that's thank you for that question that I think

0:46:33.800 --> 0:46:37.719
<v Speaker 1>those answers were quite positive. None of these things are

0:46:37.719 --> 0:46:40.200
<v Speaker 1>going to happen, of course, but you know there you go, right,

0:46:40.520 --> 0:46:44.040
<v Speaker 1>So do you listen to the podcast. Do read John's

0:46:44.040 --> 0:46:47.880
<v Speaker 1>newsletter Money to Build award winning. Do read my newsletter

0:46:47.920 --> 0:46:51.240
<v Speaker 1>out on Saturdays. Do read the Markets Today Blog Mona

0:46:52.280 --> 0:46:54.120
<v Speaker 1>and enjoy them all. I hope, and thank you so

0:46:54.239 --> 0:46:55.960
<v Speaker 1>much for coming this evening. You've been a really good

0:46:56.000 --> 0:46:58.520
<v Speaker 1>audience and we will be hanging around to answer more questions,

0:46:58.640 --> 0:46:59.920
<v Speaker 1>and so will our other panel.

0:47:00.239 --> 0:47:00.920
<v Speaker 2>So thank you all.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to this week's Marin Talk to Your Money.

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<v Speaker 1>If you like our show, rate review and subscribe wherever

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to podcasts. Also be sure to follow me

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<v Speaker 1>in John on ex or Twitter at marinas w and

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<v Speaker 1>John Underscore Steppek. This episode was produced by Someasadi and Moses,

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<v Speaker 1>and questions and comments on this show and all those

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<v Speaker 1>shows are always welcome. Our show email is Merrin Money

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<v Speaker 1>at bluebog dot net sound designed by Aaron Kasper, and

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<v Speaker 1>special thanks of course to Paula Steele.