Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea
Speaker 1: and the single best idea over twenty years ago was
Speaker 1: some people trusted me to generate conversations and to generate
Speaker 1: longer conversations and the media a typical American conversation. It's
Speaker 1: very difficult for Europeans, where there's a much longer conversation.
Speaker 1: But it was three four minutes. Anything over for zero
Speaker 1: zero was sacrilegi. I mean, you can't do that. Nobody
Speaker 1: can go longer. And a major shout out to people
Speaker 1: like don Imus Howard Stern, A major shout out to
Speaker 1: Charlie Rose, who had the courage to develop longer conversations
Speaker 1: from a time ago. Today was one of those magical
Speaker 1: we're back to back. We had Alicia Levigne, but first Robert,
Speaker 1: excuse me, look at me. Robert Stovall, his father, Sam Stovall,
Speaker 1: his son. I believe Sam Stovall showed up curious Sam Stovall.
Speaker 1: On Clint Eastwood.
Speaker 2: I got the best bit of investment advice from Clint
Speaker 2: Eastwood when he was playing Dirty Harry in the movie
Speaker 2: Magnum Force. A man's got to know his limitations and
Speaker 2: basically emotions tend to be an investor's worst enemy, and
Speaker 2: so extracting your emotions and using declines in the market,
Speaker 2: using technical analysis to see how far the decline is
Speaker 2: likely to go, etc. Can then help you to buy
Speaker 2: on the dips, also realizing, as I mentioned, it takes
Speaker 2: only about four months on average to get back to
Speaker 2: break even from declines of up to twenty percent. By
Speaker 2: the time you freaked out your financial advisor to lighten
Speaker 2: up on your equity exposure, the market's probably already on
Speaker 2: its way back to break even, and on average the
Speaker 2: market gains an additional ten percent after the conclusion of
Speaker 2: a correction or a decline of up to twenty percent
Speaker 2: runs it.
Speaker 1: That's all I can say what he just said there,
Speaker 1: which is all the heritage of a Stoveall family, what
Speaker 1: happens at CFRA and goes back to the research of
Speaker 1: John Murphy and Ed Heyman and the rest. To use
Speaker 1: technical analysis to figure out where you are within the
Speaker 1: fear is the number one use of the lines that
Speaker 1: charts the exes and the o Sam Stovall there classic.
Speaker 1: Then we got better. Alicia Levine showed up with their
Speaker 1: prodigious mathematics from B and Y let's listen.
Speaker 3: It's hard for me to see us getting to three
Speaker 3: percent growth, right. What you had in the eighties was
Speaker 3: three percent growth. So that's really what you need for
Speaker 3: nominal earnings, right, because earnings are nominal and growth is nominal.
Speaker 3: The thing here is, I just think what everybody's missing
Speaker 3: is the resiliency of corporate America and the resiliency of households.
Speaker 3: Of households, I have a chart that I use which
Speaker 3: shows the crushing of the household's balance sheet of debt
Speaker 3: to assets. It is a crushing from fifteen years ago
Speaker 3: of the global financial crisis. It's basically been cut in half.
Speaker 3: Households are so resilient and there are fifty three trillion
Speaker 3: dollars wealthier than they were five years ago. So your assets,
Speaker 3: your financial assets, are going higher and your liabilities as
Speaker 3: a percent of assets are going lower. So you've got
Speaker 3: healthy balance sheets in the household sector. All that debt,
Speaker 3: of course was transferred to the government. But the households
Speaker 3: are resilient, and corporate America is resilient. Large cap are resilient,
Speaker 3: less so for small cap because they've got floating right debt.
Speaker 3: But during a place where there's much more resiliency than
Speaker 3: the conversation we're hearing Alicia.
Speaker 1: Levine of BNY across the nation and your commute thank
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