1 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:08,920 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World. Domestic Causes of American 2 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:13,560 Speaker 1: Wars Economic and Political Triggers offers a unique and critical 3 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: take on the causes of major American wars throughout its history. 4 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:21,279 Speaker 1: Unlike most histories that designate foreign threats as cassas belli, 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: this work examines their important underlying economic triggers, reaching the 6 00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:31,320 Speaker 1: striking conclusion that many were unnecessary for national security, nor 7 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:36,600 Speaker 1: were they as heroic in upholding American values as commonly concluded. Further, 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: conventional histories often dwell on the positive outcomes of those 9 00:00:40,120 --> 00:00:44,120 Speaker 1: wars rather than on their much more important domestic ill effects, 10 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 1: the erosion of the American Founder's Constitution and of the 11 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,600 Speaker 1: civil liberties and constitutional checks and balances therein while enabling 12 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: the rise of an imperial presidency. In his new book, 13 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: ivan Eland addresses those often buried domestic causes and effects, 14 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:04,400 Speaker 1: in particular how American election cycles often affect us contry 15 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:08,720 Speaker 1: into wars and how economic motives incentivized war. So I'm 16 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 1: really pleased to welcome my guest who has a fascinating thesis, 17 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: Ivan Eland. He is a senior fellow and director of 18 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:31,600 Speaker 1: the Center and Peace and Liberty at the Independent instant Ivan. 19 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: Welcome and thank you for joining me on this world. 20 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on. It's really great honor. 21 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 1: So first of all, tell us a little bit about 22 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: the Independent Institute and the work that you're doing there. 23 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,640 Speaker 2: Well, I run the Center for Peace and Liberty. It's 24 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: sort of a libertarian think tank, libertarian ask oriented and 25 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:57,320 Speaker 2: we explore the roots of big government. And of course 26 00:01:57,760 --> 00:02:00,920 Speaker 2: big government has been caused not in the United States 27 00:02:00,960 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 2: but in other countries by warfare first and foremost o 28 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: there are other causes, of course, but a lot of 29 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:12,000 Speaker 2: our programs, even if they're not defense related. For instance, 30 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: our healthcare system came during World War Two, and so 31 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 2: you need to like the systemer hate the system. But 32 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 2: its derivation was that daylight savings time came originally in 33 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 2: World War One, and then another bout of it was 34 00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 2: in the early seventies with the oil crisis. These types 35 00:02:29,680 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 2: of things originated war and so the government naturally balloons 36 00:02:34,960 --> 00:02:39,239 Speaker 2: with defense spending and military spending during warfare, but also 37 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: war drags erosion of civil liberties that is, government and 38 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 2: intervention into speech and assembly and that sort of thing. 39 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 2: And then also economically we saw price controls in both 40 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 2: World War One and World War two, and these are 41 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: domestic effects which are not very beneficial to the economy 42 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 2: in the long run at all. 43 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: What you into this particular study. 44 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 2: We always focus in histories, will always focus on the 45 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:11,080 Speaker 2: foreign aspects, because most of our wars are foreign wars. Nowadays, 46 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,359 Speaker 2: and even back then, we've only had really two domestic 47 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,320 Speaker 2: wars of civil war and then the wars against the Indians, 48 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: if you want to call that one war. So most 49 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,840 Speaker 2: of our wars we focus on the foreign aspects of it, 50 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:28,799 Speaker 2: whereas there are domestic causes and domestic effects which are 51 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,120 Speaker 2: really under studied, so to speak. So that's why I 52 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,880 Speaker 2: wrote this book. I'm not saying that all wars are 53 00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 2: caused only by domestic factors, but I think the domestic 54 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: factors have been ignored or just not studied enough. And 55 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 2: also the domestic outcomes are very important. Erosion of civil liberties, 56 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:53,400 Speaker 2: erosion of the checks and balances, excessive growth of the presidency. 57 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 2: These types of things are the outcomes of domestic outcomes 58 00:03:58,000 --> 00:03:58,960 Speaker 2: of foreign wars. 59 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: You warn right after the terrible attacks of October seventh 60 00:04:03,480 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: that Israel would regret overreacting. Two years later, do you 61 00:04:07,760 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 1: think that events have confirmed or challenged that prediction. 62 00:04:11,720 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: Well, I do think they're reaping a lot of international 63 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 2: probrium for this. If their purpose is to take over Gaza, 64 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,120 Speaker 2: then that's what they'll do. But I think they're being 65 00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 2: drawn into a quagmire if they do that, and I 66 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: think the Israeli military is definitely against that. And I 67 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 2: think they proved their point that they retaliated for the 68 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 2: October seventh attacks, which were heinous and which of course 69 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 2: required some response, but I think that it should have 70 00:04:40,360 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 2: been more measured than it was. And I think they're 71 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 2: only going to reap a long term program because they're 72 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:52,120 Speaker 2: really creating hatred in the Gosms, which I think will 73 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 2: even if you get rid of Hamas, the idea that 74 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 2: they have to retaliate for Israel's overkill in my opinion 75 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:03,719 Speaker 2: of God. And I think even the Israeli military has 76 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:08,679 Speaker 2: leaked out that their military objectives were satisfied a year ago. 77 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:11,800 Speaker 2: And so this is one area. I know we're not 78 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:15,440 Speaker 2: discussing Israeli domestic politics, but I think this is one 79 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:19,800 Speaker 2: area where domestic factors after that year have taken over. 80 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 2: And that's Netnya, who's standing within Israel and within his government. 81 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: I mean, that would be a fascinating place to take 82 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 1: your thesis and look at the impact of Israeli domestic 83 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 1: behavior on the way in which they've waged war. Now, 84 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: when you look at President Trump, some historians argue that 85 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:44,679 Speaker 1: he is recreating a nineteenth century style international order, complete 86 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:49,360 Speaker 1: with spheres of influence, a territorial expansion, and trade protectionism. 87 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:50,799 Speaker 1: Do you think that's accurate. 88 00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: Well, he certainly as a protectionist in the trade area 89 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 2: in his foreign policy area. I have supported some of 90 00:05:58,320 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 2: what Trump has done with the Europeans in that they've 91 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: always been promising spend more on defense and they just 92 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 2: never got around to it. I think that the two 93 00:06:07,760 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 2: things have wakened them a bit at least. That is 94 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,240 Speaker 2: the Ukraine War, Putin and dating Ukraine, and the other 95 00:06:13,279 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 2: one is Donald Trump, and he's been very adamant that 96 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 2: he wants them to do five percent if he ends 97 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:22,920 Speaker 2: the war as he's trying to Whether that promise will 98 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,480 Speaker 2: go by the way when the threat is reduced to 99 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 2: or at least goes under the covers again is one thing. 100 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 2: But I think his solution for supporting the Ukraine is 101 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 2: the right one. I think we should back off from 102 00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 2: direct support, and he can do the same thing by 103 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 2: selling the weapons that Ukraine needs from the US through 104 00:06:42,520 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 2: the Europeans. Sell them to them, and Europeans could get 105 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 2: them to the Ukrainians, and I think that's the way 106 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:51,039 Speaker 2: to go. So I think he's right on that particular issue, 107 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: and in general, I think he's probably less interventionist, although 108 00:06:55,680 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 2: he occasionally talks about taking military action gets Panama and 109 00:06:59,720 --> 00:07:03,600 Speaker 2: Green which I think would be very counterproductive. But he 110 00:07:03,640 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 2: does in the sense he doesn't mask imperialism with rhetoric. 111 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:11,280 Speaker 2: He just says it. So we'll have to see what 112 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 2: his record is. I think he's taken military action a 113 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 2: couple of times against Iran in both of his terms, 114 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:20,400 Speaker 2: but he hasn't run wild with wars like the Clinton 115 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 2: administration did with intervening for dubious reasons in the developing world. 116 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: When you think about nineteenth century international relations, you wrote 117 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,800 Speaker 1: an article that Trump can create a concert of Greek powers, 118 00:07:36,240 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: which in some ways reminded me of Vienna and the 119 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: concert after the defeat of Napoleon. What did you have 120 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,480 Speaker 1: in mind how that would work. 121 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 2: I think that we're approaching a multipolar world, and our 122 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:50,800 Speaker 2: data is so huge that I think we're going to 123 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 2: have to cut spending eventually in the military and in 124 00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:58,239 Speaker 2: domestic programs to get this under control. It's thirty seven 125 00:07:58,360 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: trillion now and it's going to go out some more 126 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 2: according to the projection. So we're in a different world 127 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 2: now than the end of World War Two, and we 128 00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 2: dominated the world, and even during the bipolar Cold War. 129 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: We've really got to have a manageable security posture for 130 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 2: the multipolar world. And we have rising centers of power 131 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: like India that weren't there before. And of course Germany 132 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: and Japan are economic powers, and China is both in 133 00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 2: economic power and letting military power as well. The Russians 134 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 2: now they're a bit debilitated by this war. But I 135 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 2: think Roosevelt, before he went on his un binge at 136 00:08:36,480 --> 00:08:40,200 Speaker 2: the end of his presidency, his initial thinking of what 137 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 2: would happen after World War Two was to be sort 138 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,920 Speaker 2: of a concert of powers to manage things. But of 139 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,319 Speaker 2: course he never really sold that to the American public, 140 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 2: and Truman came in and had a different idea. But 141 00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 2: my current vision is sort of a version of his 142 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 2: four policemen, except I think they would probably have to 143 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 2: be five or six police or more on the Security 144 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:04,840 Speaker 2: Council if you count the economic powers as well. But 145 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,719 Speaker 2: each power would sort of police its own area. And 146 00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 2: you know, the US can't guarantee that the other powers 147 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: are going to be benevolent. But I think we should 148 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: have learned by Hoover and Roosevelt's good neighbor policy in 149 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 2: the nineteen thirties really paid off because those countries were 150 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:26,680 Speaker 2: much more receptive to anti US, anti Hitler the need 151 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 2: for measures that you know, against Hitler's. My mother used 152 00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 2: to say, you get more with sugar than vinegar. Of 153 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:35,560 Speaker 2: course no one told Putin that. But the question with 154 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 2: Ukraine is which sphere of influence do they want to 155 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: be in? And of course Ukrainians want to be in EU, 156 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 2: Russians don't want them, and they don't want them to 157 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 2: be in NATO, so you'd have boundary disputes. But if 158 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 2: you could get everybody to agree on the spheres of influence, 159 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,760 Speaker 2: you could go back to a realist sort of thing. Now, 160 00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 2: of course, there would still be issues that you need 161 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 2: to go to the UN for that, cross national borders, 162 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 2: drug trafficking, people trafficking, et cetera. But I think that 163 00:10:06,880 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: letting the powers police their own regions would be a 164 00:10:10,040 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 2: start that seems to be the only feasible alternative. Everyone 165 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 2: always criticizes intervention here or there, but they don't come 166 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: up with an alternative strategic vision of what the US 167 00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:23,800 Speaker 2: should do. We're always kind of ad hoc. We get 168 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 2: dragged back into the Middle East, every time we try 169 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:30,319 Speaker 2: to pivot to Asia to counter China. We're easily distracted 170 00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 2: by the latest dust up. And I think we could 171 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 2: probably do a little bit more strategic thinking. My proposal 172 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: is not foolproof. It's to start on thinking about how 173 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 2: we would be able to do this in a more 174 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: fiscally constrained way, which I think of that will eventually 175 00:10:47,400 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 2: come one way or the other. 176 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: To what extent is it in our interest to stop 177 00:11:09,920 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 1: Putin from taking over all of Ukraine, And to what 178 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 1: extent is that in fact not a primary American interest? 179 00:11:17,559 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 2: Well, I would say it doesn't really affect a primary 180 00:11:21,080 --> 00:11:24,240 Speaker 2: American interest. I mean, we dealt with Ukraine as part 181 00:11:24,280 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 2: of the Soviet Union, and of course Ukraine is more 182 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 2: strategic to Russia than anything else. But of course, the 183 00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 2: policing of international boundaries and not changing them by force 184 00:11:35,720 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 2: as the principle that we've had in the past, which 185 00:11:38,920 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 2: we've only followed ourselves radically over our history. But certainly 186 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 2: that's been a principle that the US has followed more recently, 187 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: so that's an issue. But you're correct. I don't think 188 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 2: Ukraine is a vital interest in the US. I mean, 189 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 2: the press and every other place has made as such. 190 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,640 Speaker 2: And I also think in the long term we should 191 00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 2: have a better relationship with Russia, but it's hard to 192 00:12:02,160 --> 00:12:05,400 Speaker 2: do when we have this current situation going on. I'm 193 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,040 Speaker 2: hoping that Trump can solve the issue. It would be good, 194 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,640 Speaker 2: and if we can rehabilitate relations with Russia, we don't 195 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: have to like Putin and the way he governs his country. 196 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 2: I'm sort of a realist. That's my basis for this concept. 197 00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:23,560 Speaker 2: I would say that Trump does have some possibility here 198 00:12:23,640 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 2: of solving the crisis if he plays his cards right. 199 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,960 Speaker 1: Do you worry at all that if Putin were to 200 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: win all of Ukraine, that, in fact, after taking a 201 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,600 Speaker 1: pause to rebuild his horses, that that would put Poland 202 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: or Latvia, Lithuanian and Estonia at some risk. 203 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:46,000 Speaker 2: Well, if NATO doesn't mean anything, it would. But I 204 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 2: think we've always expanded NATO and pledged to defend these countries. 205 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,480 Speaker 2: So I think those countries are a bit different than Ukraine, 206 00:12:54,520 --> 00:12:57,760 Speaker 2: since Ukraine is not in there, and Ukraine is more 207 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 2: traditionally in the Russian sphere of infla. It's very important 208 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 2: culturally as well as economically to Russia. I think we 209 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 2: can make that argument ad nauseum as far as falling dominoes, 210 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 2: it's sort of a modern version of that. First of all, 211 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 2: Plutin may learn from this as well, because to me, 212 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 2: he lost the war at the beginning because he thought 213 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,000 Speaker 2: it was going to be waltz in there and take 214 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 2: over Ukraine and make it a satellite country like Belarus. 215 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 2: The Ukrainians have a vote and they voted no, so 216 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 2: I think he should have learned some lessons. And also 217 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 2: his military has been torn apart by this. He's lost 218 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:39,920 Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty thousand and it's hard to figure's 219 00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 2: hard to estimate accurately, but he's lost more than the 220 00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:48,120 Speaker 2: Ukrainians have and his military performed really awfully, so at 221 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,840 Speaker 2: least as long as he's a ruler there, I don't 222 00:13:50,840 --> 00:13:52,840 Speaker 2: think his military is going to be in very good 223 00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:57,360 Speaker 2: shape because in an authoritarian situation, no one likes to 224 00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 2: tell the boss that our military, we're having big problems here, 225 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:04,880 Speaker 2: and there's no independent media to discover this. And I 226 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 2: think frankly, shijin Ping and China should be a little 227 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 2: bit nervous about what his military. They can do goose 228 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,880 Speaker 2: steps and stuff, and they're probably more capable than the 229 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 2: Russian military, but nobody knows how they'll react. They haven't 230 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:22,600 Speaker 2: than war in seventy years, so I guess that's a 231 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,080 Speaker 2: long answer to your question. But I think we also 232 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 2: have to make the Europeans do more. Some of the 233 00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 2: bigger European countries need to start supporting Poland and the 234 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,320 Speaker 2: Lithuanians and the other Baltic states that are on the 235 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,160 Speaker 2: front lines. There. We shouldn't have to do at all. 236 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 2: And Russia is a fraction of the EU GDP, and 237 00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 2: so the Europeans are very wealthy and they can do 238 00:14:43,720 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 2: not only more in Ukraine, but more for Poland and 239 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 2: the rest of the people that are exposed. 240 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 1: You describe the notion that for the first one hundred 241 00:14:52,280 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 1: years or so, most of our major wars were either 242 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:59,880 Speaker 1: to pursue commerce or to acquire new territory, and then 243 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: after World War Two we really shifted to maintaining a 244 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 1: global head guy and making the United States dominant using 245 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,800 Speaker 1: our weight both economically and militarily. Do you think it 246 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,360 Speaker 1: was that big and that decisive? And I noticed you 247 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 1: don't quite include World War One in the transition. 248 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: Well, world War One, the state certainly penetrated the economy 249 00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 2: and you had the budding military. But for World War 250 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 2: Two is the first war that we really had a 251 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 2: dedicated defense industry, because in all the other wars, we 252 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: had civilian factories and they would make tanks, they would 253 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 2: make cannon or whatever for the war, and then they 254 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:43,560 Speaker 2: would go back to civilian production when the war was over, 255 00:15:43,640 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 2: and that prevented a military industrial complex from forming. In 256 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 2: other words, we need lots of military spending during the 257 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,920 Speaker 2: peacetime to keep our industries to the next war. While 258 00:15:56,960 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: in World War Two it was such a massive war 259 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 2: are even compared to World War One, that the defense 260 00:16:03,480 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 2: industries grew from cities to suburbs to actual semi rural areas. 261 00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:11,720 Speaker 2: So and a lot of these semi rural areas and 262 00:16:11,960 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 2: suburban or exurban places, their economy really didn't have much 263 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 2: left after the war was over, whereas the cities were 264 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:25,040 Speaker 2: more versatile and they adjusted. So a lot of these 265 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 2: industries lobbied for continued defense spending and during the Korean War. 266 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:36,360 Speaker 2: After the World War II, this military industrial complex really 267 00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 2: became permanent, and so did, of course, a larger military. 268 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 2: That was the first time we had a large peacetime 269 00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 2: military in history was after nineteen fifty three, so it's 270 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,760 Speaker 2: been a fairly recent phenomenon. And now we have a 271 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:54,200 Speaker 2: situation where our defense industry, most of it doesn't make 272 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:59,160 Speaker 2: any civilian items, so it's dependent on continued weapons production. 273 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 2: Are requiring more competition at the subcontract level so that 274 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 2: the military industrial base isn't quite so dependent on just 275 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 2: defense contracts. A lot of the computer stuff and that 276 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,920 Speaker 2: sort of stuff in artificial intelligence, that's one area where 277 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 2: they could reduce its specifications and allow more competitions so 278 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 2: that we don't have that. It's not going to end 279 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 2: the military industrial complex overnight, that it would certainly help, 280 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 2: and the military industry is not very competitive even when 281 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:34,200 Speaker 2: they compete contracts, they're more allocated than competitive in many cases. 282 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:52,879 Speaker 1: One of our great problems now in defense spending is 283 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: that we have basically a government giant private bureaucracy partnership, 284 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 1: which guarantees that you don't get competition, you don't get innovation, 285 00:18:03,119 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: and all too often the companies invest more in lobbyists 286 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,000 Speaker 1: than they do in engineers. One of the points you've made, 287 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,080 Speaker 1: it's kind of interesting to play with, is the notion 288 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: that had the North decided to buy out slavery, it 289 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:21,000 Speaker 1: would have been dramatically less expensive than fighting the Civil War. 290 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: Do you really think there were circumstances where Southern culture 291 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: would have tolerated that kind of emancipation. 292 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:31,960 Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question, and I don't definit until 293 00:18:31,960 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 2: we say that. I think you know. But they didn't 294 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 2: try it. And Abraham Lincoln was for it in the 295 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:40,520 Speaker 2: eighteen forties when he was a congressman, but then when 296 00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 2: it came time for this secession, he really wasn't because 297 00:18:44,280 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 2: he really wasn't trying to free the slaves right away. 298 00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:49,240 Speaker 2: His main goal and his sole goal was to reunite 299 00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 2: the Union by force. And so after a while, in 300 00:18:53,640 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 2: the middle of the war, he started asking the border 301 00:18:56,840 --> 00:18:59,119 Speaker 2: states that were still in the Unions that had slaves 302 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 2: if they would do and they really weren't that interested. 303 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 2: And of course the Southerners weren't interested after the fighting started, 304 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 2: but it was never tried before the war. And I 305 00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:14,560 Speaker 2: think most countries, most major countries, got rid of slavery 306 00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:19,560 Speaker 2: by compensated emancipation or gradual emancipation. And my view is 307 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,399 Speaker 2: that Lincoln he made the classic mistake of thinking the 308 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,240 Speaker 2: war was going to be short and over when the 309 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:31,320 Speaker 2: Union army went into the South and everyone was awestruck 310 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,399 Speaker 2: by the rabbel was awestruck by the incoming forces or whatever. 311 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,159 Speaker 2: But of course wars never turned out that way, and 312 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,840 Speaker 2: the enemy does have a vote, and the war caused 313 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,360 Speaker 2: so much bitterness that you had sort of a neo 314 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 2: slavery system. Once the Democrats took over the Southern governments again, 315 00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:52,359 Speaker 2: you had neoslavery for another one hundred years until the 316 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 2: Civil Rights movement. I'm not sure that all that bitterness 317 00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,960 Speaker 2: that was caused by the Civil War really helped out 318 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,320 Speaker 2: African Americans that much at all. And of course a 319 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:04,359 Speaker 2: lot of the thirteenth, fourteenth, and fifteenth amendments were all 320 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 2: really eroded in one way or another in the aftermath, 321 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,879 Speaker 2: so I think it would have been better to try that. 322 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 2: But of course Lincoln he actually supported a different thirteenth 323 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 2: Amendment before the one we got in his first inaugural, 324 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:22,800 Speaker 2: which would have made slavery permanent in the Southern States. 325 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:24,679 Speaker 2: So his goal at the beginning of the war was 326 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:28,080 Speaker 2: not the free slaves, and in fact, he really didn't 327 00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,280 Speaker 2: free that many slaves at the Emancipation Proclamation because he 328 00:20:31,359 --> 00:20:35,960 Speaker 2: freedom in only areas that the Confederate forces occupied, not 329 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 2: the Union forces. So that was sort of a bizarre twist. 330 00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 2: So the Congress really freed the slaves with the thirteenth 331 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 2: Amendment when was passed, and of course Lincoln didn't have 332 00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 2: anything to do with that, just by the nature of 333 00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 2: constitutional amendments. 334 00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: When you look at these different things, I know it's 335 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 1: also that you suggest that we could have avoided going 336 00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 1: unto World War One, and there was actually economic and 337 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,880 Speaker 1: was rather than national security, there was a driving factor. 338 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: Can you explain that. 339 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:10,199 Speaker 2: Well, what happened was we came into the war in 340 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 2: nineteen seventeen. The war started long before in nineteen fourteen, 341 00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 2: and we had a lot of trade and loans with 342 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:21,600 Speaker 2: the Allies, but not almost none with the Germans, and 343 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,040 Speaker 2: the British put on a hunger blockade to try to 344 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:28,919 Speaker 2: starve Germany into submission, and Woodrow Wilson really didn't have 345 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,760 Speaker 2: too much of a problem with that, but he did 346 00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 2: have a problem with the German version of that, which 347 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 2: wasn't as efficient as the British Navy, which was the 348 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 2: top dog naval power in the world. Then the Germans 349 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 2: were forced to do a seed denial with U boats, 350 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 2: and that's not as efficient as a blockade with your 351 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 2: entire navy around the Baltic area. So Wilson was hardly neutral. 352 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:59,159 Speaker 2: We had a non neutral neutral policy, which was neutral 353 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 2: in name only, and he objected to Americans being unsafe 354 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 2: when they traveled on belligerent ships containing arms shipments in 355 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 2: a war zone around Britain, France, and Italy. So this 356 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 2: was quite a deal and William Jennings Bryan, his Secretary 357 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:20,560 Speaker 2: of State, resigned because he said, well, we're not neutral 358 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:24,240 Speaker 2: here and you're expecting way too much for this. And 359 00:22:24,280 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 2: the Congress tried to pass a law saying that Americans 360 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 2: couldn't travel on belligerent ships, and they did that in 361 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:36,400 Speaker 2: the nineteen thirties, when the Nazis were rising in Germany 362 00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:40,399 Speaker 2: and Italy and Japan were both active and we were 363 00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: moving towards World War Two, they passed neutrality to do 364 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 2: exactly that, and they could have done so at the time, 365 00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 2: but Wilson had these ideas that our people should be 366 00:22:50,640 --> 00:22:54,360 Speaker 2: safe even under those extreme circumstances, so he was kind 367 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:57,040 Speaker 2: of holding the Germans to a pretty high standard. We 368 00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,280 Speaker 2: sort of look at World War One, which I think 369 00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 2: most of the story orians would regard as more important 370 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,119 Speaker 2: than World War Two, since he's set the base for 371 00:23:05,200 --> 00:23:08,000 Speaker 2: World War Two. But we kind of see World War 372 00:23:08,040 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 2: One only through World War Two. Well, the Germans have 373 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 2: always been evil, but you know, Hitler was certainly a 374 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:17,280 Speaker 2: much bigger threat to the US than the Kaiser was. 375 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,679 Speaker 2: And the Kaiser really didn't even want to be in 376 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 2: the war, and none of the countries wanted to be 377 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 2: in that war, but they were dragged into it by 378 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 2: alliances that they may have regretted after the war started. 379 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:33,800 Speaker 2: But I think Neil Ferguson, who's a conservative historian, really 380 00:23:33,840 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 2: says that the British lost their empire in World War 381 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: One by getting involved in He said they didn't need 382 00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 2: to and he said that argument the US didn't need 383 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,840 Speaker 2: to get into it either, and I agreed with that. 384 00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 2: I debated him one time and he goes, you know, 385 00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 2: we have a lot more in common than I thought 386 00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,119 Speaker 2: we did. So I think the US could have stayed 387 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 2: out of that war even if Britain got into it. 388 00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 2: But certainly Britain hadn't been in it. We wouldn't have 389 00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 2: been into it because we had a recession right before 390 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:09,720 Speaker 2: the war started, and Wilson all these war orders weapons, 391 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 2: and we are also feeding Europe because of the war, 392 00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 2: they couldn't grow as many crops, and so therefore, you know, 393 00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,679 Speaker 2: our economy began to depend on their war, and then 394 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:20,680 Speaker 2: it became our war. 395 00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: The British they ignored their obligation under the eighteen thirty 396 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 1: treaty with Belgium and just stayed out of the war. 397 00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 1: My guess is the World War One would have lasted 398 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 1: about six to eight months. That the Germans would have 399 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: beaten the French and then pivoted and beaten the Russians 400 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 1: and created a very German centered European suit of world order. 401 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 2: Right, But of course the British still had their fleet, 402 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:49,840 Speaker 2: So yes, Germany might have won if we hadn't come 403 00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 2: to the English and French. One of the big things 404 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,640 Speaker 2: is we always herald the effect of the US soldiers 405 00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,120 Speaker 2: on the front, But I think when we got into 406 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,280 Speaker 2: the war. That triggered a whole bunch of loans, because 407 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:06,000 Speaker 2: if the Germans had known that the British and French 408 00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 2: were almost bankrupt, you know, in the lad War in 409 00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:14,080 Speaker 2: nineteen eighteen, they wouldn't have done those offensive waste a lot. 410 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 2: Now on the offensives failed, they could have just retreated 411 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,120 Speaker 2: and defensive and probably won the war that way as well. 412 00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:22,400 Speaker 2: If the US hadn't. 413 00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:27,159 Speaker 1: Entered without the US, I suspect in the end the 414 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,760 Speaker 1: British and the French lowse if we had stayed out. 415 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: And I think certainly at nineteen fourteen, if Britain had 416 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 1: stayed out, I think it's very clear that the Germans 417 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:38,879 Speaker 1: would have won the war pretty fast. 418 00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,240 Speaker 2: Yes, Yes, the British hadn't been in yes, huh. 419 00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:44,800 Speaker 1: I really want to thank you for joining us. You 420 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 1: look at things differently, You ask a whole different set 421 00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:52,359 Speaker 1: of questions. You force us to challenge the assumed version 422 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 1: of history and ask were there alternative ways to do things? 423 00:25:56,440 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 1: And I think all that's really really valuable. And I 424 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,919 Speaker 1: think that you new book, Domestic Causes of American Wars, 425 00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:06,639 Speaker 1: Economic and Political Triggers. It's available now in Amazon and 426 00:26:06,640 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: in bookstores everywhere, And I want our listeners to know 427 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,160 Speaker 1: that they can find more about the work you're doing 428 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:16,200 Speaker 1: at the Independent Institute by visiting your website at Independent 429 00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:19,760 Speaker 1: dot org. And they're going to find themselves really asking 430 00:26:19,800 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: new questions and thinking new thoughts by following your work. 431 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: So I really want to thank you for joining us. 432 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:27,719 Speaker 2: Thanks for having me on. I appreciate it. 433 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,520 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Ivan Eland. You can get 434 00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:36,440 Speaker 1: a link to buy his new book, Domestic Causes of 435 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,439 Speaker 1: American Wars, Economic and Political Triggers on our show page 436 00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,640 Speaker 1: at newsworld dot com. News World is produced by Ganglishtrey 437 00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:48,440 Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan. Our 438 00:26:48,480 --> 00:26:52,439 Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was 439 00:26:52,480 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley Special thanks to team of Ganglishry sixty. 440 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:59,320 Speaker 1: If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to 441 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,600 Speaker 1: Apple Podcast and both rate us with five stars and 442 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: give us a review so others can learn what it's 443 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:08,320 Speaker 1: all about. Right now, listeners of newt World can sign 444 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,680 Speaker 1: up from my three freeweekly columns at gingrishwe sixty dot com. 445 00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: Slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrish. This is Newtsworld.