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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game, do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? No running a game so smoothe so sweet,

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Speaker 1: splendid sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time. How shut with that? Shop

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Speaker 2: with mind bog buddy, And.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 1: the most dangerous.

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Speaker 2: Amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: Again the love. It's left to.

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Speaker 1: The wide eyed, drilled fibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth thick that happens? Hello, and welcome back

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Speaker 2: to Wonder Goal, the soccer podcast that gives out more

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Speaker 2: tennis winners than soccer winners from the Action Network. Our

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Speaker 2: podcast is presented by BET three sixty five. I'm Anthony Bundo,

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Speaker 2: joined as always by BJ Cunningham. Michael Leeboff is back

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Speaker 2: from Cancun but will not be joining us on the

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Speaker 2: pod until the Premier League returns next week, so that'll

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Speaker 2: be Tuesday, so he'll be back for the Monday morning episode.

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Speaker 2: But we do have a very interesting slate this weekend,

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Speaker 2: some really juicy early round FA Cup ties, a full

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Speaker 2: slate around the rest of europe Afcon. The group stage

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Speaker 2: comes to a close on Wednesday afternoon. Asian Cup we're

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Speaker 2: heading into the knockouts as well, so BJA is going

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Speaker 2: to have some bets for that. But before we get

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Speaker 2: into all of the weekend soccer action, a reminder that

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Speaker 2: Wonder Goal is presented by Bet three sixty five. Bet

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Speaker 2: three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every

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Speaker 2: sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 2: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 2: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 2: you sign up today with promo Code Action and you'll

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Speaker 2: get three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 2: and you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever

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Speaker 2: the moment, it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 2: One or older only must be president in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia if you or someone you

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Speaker 2: know has the gambling problem and once he called on

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Speaker 2: gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or

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Speaker 2: one hundred bets off in Iowa, terms and conditions apply.

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Speaker 2: We've got five matchups this weekend in the FA Cup

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Speaker 2: fourth round draw that include Premier League teams versus Premier

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Speaker 2: League teams. There's a couple of matches that are involving

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Speaker 2: Championship teams that we have action on. Let's start with

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Speaker 2: the headliner. Manchester City visits Spurs on a Friday afternoon

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Speaker 2: Eastern time Friday evening in the UK. Should be a

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Speaker 2: fun Friday night lights matchup. It's one of a couple

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Speaker 2: big matches.

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Speaker 1: EJ.

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Speaker 2: City have had a lot of problems getting past Tottenham

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Speaker 2: in the past, and any City fan will tell you

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Speaker 2: they still have nightmares about human Son and Harry Kane.

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Speaker 2: On the counter, Kine is gone and it didn't matter.

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Speaker 2: In the last leg they played at Theft you had

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Speaker 2: ended three to three. Sun was killing them on the

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Speaker 2: brain and Klesevsky as well, even with Charletts and getting

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Speaker 2: in on the action. And Tottenham is now at home

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Speaker 2: as a pretty sizable underdog. Man City minus one sixty

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Speaker 2: to win the match in regulation, Tottenham as high as

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Speaker 2: plus three fifty to qualify. City are about as healthy

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Speaker 2: as they've been in a while minus early Holland. Tottenham

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Speaker 2: are dealing with all these injuries. Slash afcar on slash

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Speaker 2: Asian Cup. You don't really know what to expect from

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Speaker 2: from Angball here. But what do you expect in what

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Speaker 2: should be a five and open match.

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Speaker 1: I don't really know what to expect quite frankly. I

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Speaker 1: mean there is a couple interesting components of this. You know,

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Speaker 1: Tottenham's defense is finally healthy. You know, the previous match

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Speaker 1: with these two faced off, it was a chaotic three

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Speaker 1: to three that Spurs kind of lucks their way into

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Speaker 1: let's just say that three to three draw. But then

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Speaker 1: it also had to play Ben Davies and Emerson as

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Speaker 1: they're back too. But now they get both Van deven

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Speaker 1: and Romero back which makes things a lot better. But

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Speaker 1: Kevin de Bruyne is really, from what we've seen from

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Speaker 1: the one match from them, has really unlocked Manchester City

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Speaker 1: in terms of what they can do offensively. So you know,

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Speaker 1: in the past without de Bruyn, at least for the

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Speaker 1: first half of the season, is they were struggling to

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Speaker 1: find guys in between the lines. And de Bruyne is

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Speaker 1: not only good at finding space in between the lines,

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Speaker 1: but he's also great at picking guys out. You saw

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Speaker 1: that against Newcastle where Newcastle was playing a pass of

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Speaker 1: four or five one. They weren't really trying to press

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Speaker 1: City and they were trying to stay very narrow in

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Speaker 1: the middle and try to cut off those passes through

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Speaker 1: the middle, and City just kept finding those passes because

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Speaker 1: of Kevin de Bruyna finding space and then he obviously

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Speaker 1: can distribute from there and create a bunch of chances

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Speaker 1: and scored a goal for himself. So the question is

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Speaker 1: can Tottenham played their high line, can they press and

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Speaker 1: keep City at bay or a City going to punish

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Speaker 1: them with winners in behind, with Doku and Foden getting

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Speaker 1: in behind, and now that they have Kevin de Bruyna

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Speaker 1: to distribute, it makes things a lot more difficult for

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Speaker 1: here for me to see how Todham stays in it.

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Speaker 1: Then you obviously obviously have the aspect of Sun being

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Speaker 1: out at the Age Cup, which with Charleston has been

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Speaker 1: really good and over the last month. I said, you know,

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Speaker 1: the last time we obviously saw them playing the interest

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Speaker 1: very weird. Just say I'm passing on this one. I

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Speaker 1: do show a little bit of value on top of

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Speaker 1: you know, I have City about minus one thirty five.

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Speaker 1: You know, the lasts markets at minus one eighty. So

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Speaker 1: if you could say there's a value side here, I

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Speaker 1: would say it's Spurs with both their center backs healthy.

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Speaker 1: But I would like to see another match with City

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Speaker 1: in Debryn Coffee. We've obviously seen it. I'd like to

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Speaker 1: see if it's truly as good as it was against Newcastle,

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Speaker 1: then it's going to be very hard to face City

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Speaker 1: going forward. But all in all, I'm passing.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, for the first time. I mean, Romero and

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Speaker 2: Ven Deven were healthy in the last match against United

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Speaker 2: and they were pretty good defensively on the road at United.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I you know, Manchester United hasn't been a

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Speaker 2: great defensive of our attacking team this year. They're they're

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Speaker 2: kind of like Lee average and chance created. But Spurs

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Speaker 2: held United away from home to point eight expected goals,

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Speaker 2: which is something they had not done, you know, kept

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Speaker 2: an opponent under one point three x G. They had

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Speaker 2: not done that since the Palace match, and really, I

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Speaker 2: guess you could say the Forest match December fifteen, so

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Speaker 2: they had struggled, you know, conceding over three xg to Brighton,

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Speaker 2: one and a half to Everton, one point seven to Bourne. Myth,

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Speaker 2: they really struggled. Even the Burnley FA Cup match was

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Speaker 2: not great in the third round. Tottenham, interestingly enough, have

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Speaker 2: played the two cup matches differently if you go look

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Speaker 2: at their performances against Fulham and Burnley. So Fulham was

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Speaker 2: way back in August in the League Cup second round

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Speaker 2: which they went out on penalties, and then this Burnley

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Speaker 2: match which Poro scores a late winner to win it.

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Speaker 2: But it was a very like Cagy, kind of like

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Speaker 2: not as Gung Ho in the cups, which I do

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Speaker 2: find interesting. I'm not sure that I'm willing to buy

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Speaker 2: that that meaningful because only two games we're talking about.

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Speaker 2: But I think Tottenham, you know here, actually could also

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Speaker 2: have Madison back, and I think he's going to feature.

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Speaker 2: I don't know that he'll start in this match, but

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Speaker 2: I think he'll feature. So now you're looking at this

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Speaker 2: core team. You know we talked about like, look at

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Speaker 2: what Tottenham is missing. No James Madison, no Benton Kurt earlier,

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Speaker 2: now he's back, No Persuma, saw Romero and Vandvet. I

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Speaker 2: mean they played mattch just about all of these players

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Speaker 2: and now they're going to have them all. And look,

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Speaker 2: I thought Timo Werner was excellent in his debut for Tottenham. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: of course he gets the assist on the first goal

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Speaker 2: for sure plays in Enton Kirk. He was a pretty

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Speaker 2: effective player for Tottenham. I know he had a couple

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Speaker 2: of like highlight reel shots that went into rose Ed,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of adding quality, he ended up with

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Speaker 2: five shots point three expected goals and three shot creating

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Speaker 2: actions and two goal creating actions. He was a big

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Speaker 2: part of this team and he's probably the natural Son replacement.

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Speaker 2: Obviously he's not the same level of finisher and goal scorer,

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Speaker 2: but in terms of adding value in possession and helping

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Speaker 2: to progress the ball forward, I mean, Werner was their

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Speaker 2: best attacking player in the game against United, so I

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Speaker 2: think it's an immediate upgrade for the attack. I think

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Speaker 2: Spurs are worth a look here. I took them plus

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Speaker 2: three plus three sixty five to advance about twenty minutes

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Speaker 2: before we have on this shipod because I just think

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Speaker 2: that in a road cup match there's a lot more

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Speaker 2: variance in these cups, and thus you know, with City

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Speaker 2: kind of shuffling through and figuring out, you know, trying

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Speaker 2: to kick in the gear here, they could be a

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Speaker 2: little bit vulnerable. So I took some Tottenham getting healthy,

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Speaker 2: trending up our Spurs and like you said, with Ray

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Speaker 2: Charleston as well. He's been really effective this season for

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Speaker 2: tot I mean they've needed him because they haven't had

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Speaker 2: as you know, they Stelka, they don't really have a

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Speaker 2: striker striker and they're getting really good production out of

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Speaker 2: Charlet's two point sixty three xd P ninety from Ray Charleston.

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Speaker 2: It's something he never did at Everton, so this is

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Speaker 2: the career best numbers for him and ten goals in

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Speaker 2: as sists and eleven nineties, so impressive from him inssor

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Speaker 2: from Tottenham getting healthy here. And I think they're undervalued

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Speaker 2: because the market is downgrading them off of a lot

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Speaker 2: of performances where they were really short and keep in

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Speaker 2: mind like cities right around where they were against Everton

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Speaker 2: three weeks ago. And the current version of Tottenham healthy

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Speaker 2: is much better than the current version of Everge.

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Speaker 1: That's true.

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Speaker 2: So I'm running with Tottham betting Onspurs, something I haven't

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Speaker 2: done very often in the second half of this season

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Speaker 2: thus far. The other highlight match Chelsea hosting Aston Villa

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Speaker 2: Friday afternoon two forty five pm. Villa have had some

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Speaker 2: injury issues early in the season, they've otherwise stayed pretty

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Speaker 2: healthy for the majority of this middle portion of the season.

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Speaker 2: They're now visiting Stanford Bridge and we just saw, you know,

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Speaker 2: Chelsea take advantage of Middlesbrough's high line and kind of

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Speaker 2: play them off the park in a six to one

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Speaker 2: second leg drobbing and I kind of think this is

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Speaker 2: a great match up for Chelsea. I know these two

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Speaker 2: teams played at the Bridge in the league. Chelsea was

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Speaker 2: minus one oh five in that match. They had created

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Speaker 2: over one and a half XG. They got in behind

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Speaker 2: a Ton against Villa and he made some big saves,

199
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Speaker 2: They missed some big chances and then Villa got there

200
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Speaker 2: was a red card and then Villa hit them on

201
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Speaker 2: the brake. Watkins made it one nail. So overall, I

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Speaker 2: like the over here. I also like Chelsea, but I

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Speaker 2: think the over is the better play at two and

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Speaker 2: a half minus one twenty five j a year in agreement.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I am. I think Daniel on the head there

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Speaker 1: is that Middlesbrough playing the high line. We it was

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Speaker 1: a good picture to see if Chelsea could do that

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Speaker 1: again to Aston Villa, which I fully expect them to

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Speaker 1: be able to do, probably Nolan kunkug Here, which obviously

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Speaker 1: hurts He's he's like the perfect like runner to get

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Speaker 1: in behind this high line. But Brojia does a great

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Speaker 1: job of that as well. You know, obviously quit in

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Speaker 1: a very transitional based system at Southampton when he was

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Speaker 1: getting regular minutes, so he's very capable of being that

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Speaker 1: guy that runs in off of aston Villa's back line.

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Speaker 1: And it's very hilarious because you know, aston Villa even

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Speaker 1: if they're up, you know, like we saw when they

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Speaker 1: played Manchester United, like even if they are up two goals,

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Speaker 1: they are still keeping this condensed defensive block in their

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Speaker 1: high line. I saw a stat that they have double

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Speaker 1: the amount of offside drawn as the second place team

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League, just showing like how much Uniama

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Speaker 1: he believes in this type of system. And yeah, they

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Speaker 1: might get Chelsea many times here, but you know, another

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Speaker 1: match that kind of comes back, Anthony. I know it's

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Speaker 1: not the exact same scenario, but when Tottenham played Chelsea

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Speaker 1: and they went down to ten and nine men and

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Speaker 1: they just kept playing a high line against against Chelsea,

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Speaker 1: I mean Chelsea ripped them apart as well. And you know,

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Speaker 1: since the beginning of November. Although I do believe Chelsea

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Speaker 1: is a tactically flawed team, I still don't you know

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Speaker 1: they did start. The biggest thing that I've seen, and

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Speaker 1: then a lot of people have pointed out on Twitter

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Speaker 1: as well, is that you know, Enzo Fernandez is like

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Speaker 1: the prototypical number eight and he's like perfect that, this

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Speaker 1: guy who can be a deep line playmaker and build

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Speaker 1: up and really helped Chelsea out, and they just weren't

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Speaker 1: using him like that, and they were pushing him forward

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Speaker 1: as number ten and wanting him to contribute more in

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Speaker 1: terms of goals. Well, when Chelsea wants to build out,

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Speaker 1: whether it be a three to two five or three

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Speaker 1: one six, like he's up on that line sign of defense,

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Speaker 1: you're taking away his best ability, which is creating and

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Speaker 1: progressing the ball and getting the ball into the final third.

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Speaker 1: They did that more against against Middlesbrough, which is encouraged

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Speaker 1: and signed for Chelsea. But in any case, since the

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Speaker 1: beginning of November, they have created the most expectables of

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Speaker 1: anybody in the Premier League. Like this offense is still

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Speaker 1: really really good. The biggest thing here as well is

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Speaker 1: that not only has aston Villa played the high line.

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Speaker 1: But aston Ville is also the worst team the Premier

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Speaker 1: League defending set pieces and Chelsea is number one in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League and next week for sepiece, so there's

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Speaker 1: another advantage for Chelsea in this match as well. The

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Speaker 1: flip side of the coin is is that you know,

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Speaker 1: aston Villa is obviously going to build out of the back.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea is a very very good pressing team. You know,

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Speaker 1: they are third and passes for defensive action and second

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Speaker 1: and nine turnovers so far in the Familia. They are

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Speaker 1: Their press can hit home and cause a lot of

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Speaker 1: problems here for Villa. But the other problem is when

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Speaker 1: the press doesn't hit home and Villa is able to

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Speaker 1: get through it. Chelsea is not a good transition defense team.

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Speaker 1: So aston Villa with Watkins and Diabi and many other

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Speaker 1: guys running it, they can run in behind and get

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Speaker 1: at this Chelsea defense. So you know, I project Northy

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Speaker 1: three goals here, so over two and a half minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five I think is great value for a

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Speaker 1: match that diod feature a ton of chances several offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that. You know, I mean Chelsea, everybody's

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Speaker 2: talking about Cole Palmer and like rightly, so his his

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Speaker 2: goals have His goals have been okay, Like, yeah, the

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Speaker 2: penalties are doing a lot of work in terms of

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Speaker 2: his goals. If you look at his numbers, right, nine

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Speaker 2: goals and thirteen nineties, you're like, well, that really pops

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Speaker 2: off the page. He's producing about point three x G

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Speaker 2: p ninety though, like it's really just a lot of

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Speaker 2: penalties non penalty XG. He's gotten five penalties, so really

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Speaker 2: it's four goals, but the four assists with you know

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Speaker 2: four five and a half expected assists as well and

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Speaker 2: x GA for ninety or XA for ninety at point four.

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Speaker 2: Like he's putting up elite elite striker, you know, second

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Speaker 2: striker kind of stuff, because he can do all kinds

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Speaker 2: of different roles. He's played out wide and he's been

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Speaker 2: a great creator. He's getting good shot numbers, so he's

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Speaker 2: kind of like a I don't want to compare him

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Speaker 2: to Kai Havertz Germany Kai Havertz before he came to

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Speaker 2: the prem and really wasn't as good, but I get

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Speaker 2: similar vibes of that from him, kind of like he

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Speaker 2: can play three different roles and fill different things, and

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Speaker 2: that's important for this Chelsea team because they don't really

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Speaker 2: have a striker right now with Jackson out and Cuckoo

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Speaker 2: kind of also being a bit of a tweener. So

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Speaker 2: Palmer has been the kind of the key to sustaining

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Speaker 2: this attack and it's clearly trending up. I mean, they

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Speaker 2: put up almost one and a half non penalty XG

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Speaker 2: on full of them, and when they played these other

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Speaker 2: top teams, it's when you've actually seen Chelsea's attack at

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Speaker 2: its ask. They've struggled against the world blocks, They've been

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Speaker 2: much better against teams who are going to leave space

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Speaker 2: in behind because that's where there's their skill set is

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Speaker 2: kind of tailored to exploit. So I think it's a

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Speaker 2: good matchup and I think, you know, Chelsea Alts team

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Speaker 2: total over Alts are worth a look here because this attack,

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Speaker 2: given just how much they've underperformed, is going to have

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Speaker 2: a run here where they go hot and everybody says, oh,

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Speaker 2: Chelsea has really solved it, and it won't really be

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Speaker 2: the case and just be that they ran hot for

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Speaker 2: a bit after running cold for a year and a half.

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Speaker 2: But this Chelsea attack clearly trending up. Word and I

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Speaker 2: think Palmer is the main key because they weren't getting

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Speaker 2: like Mount isn't offering like last year wasn't offering a

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Speaker 2: ton in terms of like board passing and like who's

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Speaker 2: the who's the guy to unlock teams? They didn't really

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Speaker 2: have that guy, which is why they struggled so much.

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Speaker 2: And now with with Fernandez a little bit, but more

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Speaker 2: so Palmer, they do have that guy. So I think

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Speaker 2: that's the biggest difference to Chelsea and Well, I think

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Speaker 2: they're gonna be Villa in the f A Cup real quick.

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Speaker 2: You know we're there. We're not going to touch at

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Speaker 2: on the other matches. But I know you like the

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Speaker 2: squarest parlay of the weekend. I don't even you put

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Speaker 2: this in the dock, So what else do you have

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Speaker 2: in the.

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Speaker 1: Brighton Everton parlay. Everton's playing Lutontown, Brighton's playing Sheffield United.

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Speaker 1: You're right, it is like the squarest thing ever.

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Speaker 2: Parlaying parlaying f A Cup favorites. Yeah, yeah, right, yeah,

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Speaker 2: Town still and their numbers have fallen off a bit.

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Speaker 1: They have fallen off a bit, but also Lowton Town

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Speaker 1: away from Home is is dreadful and their defense is terrible.

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Speaker 1: So I've projected the episode like closer to last year

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Speaker 1: for what it's worth, and I will be betting on

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Speaker 1: it's fallen.

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Speaker 2: But we'll talk about the NFL equivalent of like the

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Speaker 2: Ravens and the Chiefs are both laying seven and a

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Speaker 2: half and you're like, I'm taking Yeah, I'm taking cheese,

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00:16:24,680 --> 00:16:29,520
Speaker 2: yeah exactly, Barley yeah, and cup match exactly.

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Speaker 1: Well it is plus one fifty. That's why we're parlaying together, Anthony.

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Speaker 1: And then the other one I like, I do like

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Speaker 1: Bristol City plus a half home against Nottingham Forest. Like

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Speaker 1: we mentioned with Forrest, not only are is basically you know,

342
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Speaker 1: half of their starting last year and mostly back line

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Speaker 1: away at Afton, but it looks like Alongo is also

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Speaker 1: not going to play in this match, so they're going

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Speaker 1: to be very limited against a team in the Championship

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Speaker 1: in Bristol City that is trending up and put in

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Speaker 1: you know, a very you know good performance is both

348
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Speaker 1: against west Ham you know yeah, beat them over essentially

349
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Speaker 1: two legs because they had to play a replace. So

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Speaker 1: those are the only two other two that I liked

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Speaker 1: in the Championship. And you are going to be me

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Speaker 1: fading your reds.

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Speaker 2: Not only fading my reds, but fading them at Anfield.

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Speaker 1: I just think it's a bad Nobody loses though there, Well,

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Speaker 1: nobody win.

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Speaker 2: Nobody wins there, that's true, and then no, they don't

357
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Speaker 2: need to win but Liverpool. Right, so we know that

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Speaker 2: Sala and Trent are out and not going to play

359
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Speaker 2: in Wednesday League Cup match, nor will they play in

360
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Speaker 2: the FA Cup. That we're going to get a backup

361
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Speaker 2: keeper because I expect you know, we're recording this Wednesday

362
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Speaker 2: at one o'clock Eastern, so it's before we get lineups

363
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Speaker 2: for the League Cup match between Liverpool Fulham on Wednesday.

364
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Speaker 2: We'll know whether or not Liverpool's in the cup final

365
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Speaker 2: or not by the time you're listening to this, by

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Speaker 2: the time this is even posted.

367
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Speaker 1: But I do expect.

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Speaker 2: Liverpool to advance. They're minus a thousand to do so

369
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Speaker 2: against Fulham, even if they don't like this is a

370
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Speaker 2: low priority match for York and Klop and I fully

371
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Speaker 2: expect this is the kind of spot where you could

372
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Speaker 2: get a team picked them off right because Liverpool's going

373
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Speaker 2: to rotate. I don't expect van Dyk necessarily to play.

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Speaker 2: You could see quantsa. You could could not take it

375
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Speaker 2: a rest because those guys have played a lot of

376
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Speaker 2: matches this month, Like we've talked about how you know,

377
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Speaker 2: there's kind of been a little bit of a break.

378
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Speaker 2: But with Liverpool losing a couple of key guys to AFCON,

379
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Speaker 2: having no other attackers they rely on, and then only

380
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Speaker 2: having Virgil and Cannae and like the circle of trust,

381
00:18:23,480 --> 00:18:26,119
Speaker 2: having to play Gomez a ton at the fullback because

382
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Speaker 2: of Alexander Arnold and Robinson's injuries means they don't really

383
00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 2: have a ton of depth and cover. And it feels

384
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Speaker 2: like to me with Liverpool clinching its spot wednesday in

385
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Speaker 2: the Cup, in the final in the EFL, and then

386
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Speaker 2: having Chelsea in the League Wednesday and then Arsenal next weekend,

387
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,320
Speaker 2: and this is the kind of match where Klopp, who's

388
00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:45,800
Speaker 2: notoriously punted cups, is gonna say, hey, look like we

389
00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 2: can't really go all in here. We need to rest

390
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:52,440
Speaker 2: and rotate. So you could see a ton of backups

391
00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,919
Speaker 2: playing playing the kids, you know, like does Nunia start

392
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,400
Speaker 2: Dejuteaus had injury problems as he started, all these guys

393
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,120
Speaker 2: could miss. They could just play the reserves. And at

394
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Speaker 2: that case, like Norwich is catching two and a half

395
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Speaker 2: and the team totals at mins one thirty. I think

396
00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,160
Speaker 2: that's crazy. I think Norwich is live to to advance

397
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 2: here and pull off an upset. So I think this

398
00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 2: is a great example of like favorite over valued and

399
00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,600
Speaker 2: not necessarily motivated in a terrible Sandwich spot where they

400
00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:21,760
Speaker 2: don't really you know, seem to care, especially since they're

401
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:24,480
Speaker 2: going to be playing for a cup against Chelsea in

402
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:29,040
Speaker 2: the Carabos. So I like Norwich big time here. Not

403
00:19:29,280 --> 00:19:31,040
Speaker 2: not a bet that I'm going to like make a

404
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 2: huge wager on, but something that I will definitely be

405
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,760
Speaker 2: sprinkling alternate prices on, just because there's so much variance

406
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 2: in these cups and you know, people ask like, do

407
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:41,480
Speaker 2: you bet the cups heavily? Not necessarily, but when spots

408
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,840
Speaker 2: like this come around, I'm all in, so le me Norwich.

409
00:19:46,720 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 1: So like this is then it also like reckons from

410
00:19:48,600 --> 00:19:50,720
Speaker 1: like two years ago when Norwich was in the Premier

411
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Speaker 1: League and they were like already relegated and we just

412
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Speaker 1: kept letting them to like score.

413
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Speaker 2: That was the famous the famous Norwich to score. They

414
00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 2: were like plus long thirty against liver Pool. They had

415
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:03,639
Speaker 2: like a first minute goal vard off and then and

416
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 2: then they scored like the fiftieth and that was just

417
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 2: you know, that was euphoria. That was the That was

418
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Speaker 2: the beginning of Liverpool's defense being just kind of overrated

419
00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 2: for a while, which they were. I actually think the

420
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,360
Speaker 2: defense is underrated. When Van Dyke and could not they play,

421
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 2: which I don't expect them to. Also McAllister like they've

422
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:20,920
Speaker 2: had a lot of guys in and out with injuries,

423
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,600
Speaker 2: so they managed This match will be fascinating and I

424
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Speaker 2: will be on Norwich for sure. Will I get you

425
00:20:27,040 --> 00:20:28,840
Speaker 2: to join me? If if Leeboper he.

426
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Speaker 1: Would say yeah, he would say Norwich line.

427
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Speaker 2: Norwich money line, what is the march and I guess

428
00:20:35,119 --> 00:20:36,240
Speaker 2: Norich's money line here?

429
00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know they're at least two and a half

430
00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:43,880
Speaker 1: school underdogs, so they're probably about thirty to one, twenty

431
00:20:43,880 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 1: five one somewhere on there.

432
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,719
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're line at fourteen to one, about three fourteen

433
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 2: education way short. That is wonderful minus eight hundred. They're

434
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:56,320
Speaker 2: taking a lot of juice there. But yeah, like you know,

435
00:20:56,480 --> 00:20:58,159
Speaker 2: if you wanted it to like, I think maybe the

436
00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,640
Speaker 2: best way like Norwich plus a half and then Norwich

437
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:06,080
Speaker 2: to advance, which Nord to advance to the next round

438
00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:14,760
Speaker 2: is sixteen to one. All right, lots of fun underdogs

439
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 2: and BJ's parlay of favorites to get us into the

440
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,680
Speaker 2: final weekend before we get like constant prem action from

441
00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 2: now until May. So that'll be good. Let's go into

442
00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:30,399
Speaker 2: Germany where Levrakusen broke our hearts again. Yep, Leipzig completely

443
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:32,920
Speaker 2: dominated three thirty minutes of the match, I mean, over

444
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 2: and over again, up the left wing constantly. Chavy Simoons

445
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:40,840
Speaker 2: was the best player on the pitch for the majority

446
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: of the match. And then light SIG's up to to one.

447
00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 2: Like it was a pretty even match at that point.

448
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:48,320
Speaker 2: You know, Leverkusen had turned the tables and kind of

449
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: you know, found some solves at halftime for what Leipzig

450
00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:54,719
Speaker 2: was overloading them. They got grimalda more involved and then

451
00:21:54,760 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 2: they just of course they scored two set piece goals.

452
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 1: Should we talk about the title?

453
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 2: I think we should.

454
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 1: I mean to this is it Byron loses to word

455
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: of Remen, avert of Bremen. Excuse me? And right now

456
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,480
Speaker 1: it is basically a pick them. You can find Byron

457
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 1: as low as minus one twenty to win the Bundesliga.

458
00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:27,280
Speaker 1: We have Leverkusen, you know, minus one ten at most books. Now,

459
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 1: I believe it would be the time to buy now.

460
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 1: Obviously when you're listening to this, Byron is four points

461
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 1: behind Leverkusen if they beat Berlin in their makeup match,

462
00:22:36,680 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: which I fully expect them to do. So they play

463
00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 1: each other on February tenth at Leverkusen, which will be

464
00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 1: a huge, huge match. Now here's the thing, and I

465
00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,159
Speaker 1: wrote about Byron Wednesday for my daily Calm Unexpected Goals

466
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,120
Speaker 1: because I wanted to take a deep dive into because

467
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 1: they're putting up just insane underlying numbers and it's not

468
00:22:57,920 --> 00:22:59,920
Speaker 1: just you know, Harry Kane is obviously amazing. The offense

469
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 1: amazing like it always usually is, but the defense has

470
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,719
Speaker 1: drastically improved from years past. You know, when they were

471
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:09,639
Speaker 1: under Hans, they flicked, they were allowing close to the

472
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: round one expected gold for ninety minutes like they were.

473
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,119
Speaker 1: You know, we talked about the lot or they were

474
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:15,959
Speaker 1: kind of flawed in transition. They were playing too much

475
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: of a dangerous high line and they were getting caught

476
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 1: out many times there and then even attern nogles Man

477
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 1: it got a little bit better, but it wasn't It

478
00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: still wasn't like elite, elite defensive type number stuff. And

479
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: now this season with the addition of Kim min j

480
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 1: and Upa mcconno having a resurgence this season, those two

481
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 1: paired alongside each other, have really transformed this Bayron defense

482
00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:42,359
Speaker 1: essentially into being an elite defense because they're only allowing

483
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:46,280
Speaker 1: point sixty seven non penalty XTEP for ninety minutes. That is,

484
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 1: I believe, second best in Europe behind only Juventus. That's

485
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: amazing for Bayern. And then obviously, you know, with Harry

486
00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 1: Kane putting you up what like two and a half

487
00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: expected gold for any minutes or even well well more

488
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 1: than that, Levekusen is going to be with that bony

489
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 1: fox until I believe April, so they will move without him.

490
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: For quite a while, they've been over performing draft like

491
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 1: drastically overperforming, which we've talked about. It's it's not just

492
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: Boni Foss, he's actually underforming his xt G. It's all

493
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: these other guys, you know, Grimaldo and and excuse me,

494
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: all the other all the other guys around them have

495
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: been overforming the next G. At some point they're going

496
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 1: to rest. At some point, they're going to stop scoring

497
00:24:23,520 --> 00:24:27,520
Speaker 1: the goals. In stoppage time. Every schedule we've we've we've

498
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:29,840
Speaker 1: played essentially the first half of the Bundesliga season, so

499
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: the schedule that you know, it's the same for both

500
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 1: of them. It's not really, you know, that drastic of

501
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:38,120
Speaker 1: a difference, but Byron's underlying numbers are are drastically better

502
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,000
Speaker 1: than Leverkusen's. Leverkusen is going to be without their best

503
00:24:41,000 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: striker for a couple of months now, and it's only

504
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: a four point gap. It's not a drastic gap that

505
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: Byron needs to overcome. So if they can win that

506
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: match at Leverkusen, which you know, the match that they

507
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 1: played against lebracrusin the true two draw earlier in the season,

508
00:24:57,880 --> 00:24:59,919
Speaker 1: that was probably the worst defensive performance that Byron's have

509
00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,199
Speaker 1: all season so far outside of the Galatass ride. But

510
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: they've other than that match, they have been unbelievably good

511
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 1: defensively in the Bundesliga. So you know, their ability to

512
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,919
Speaker 1: also counterpress, because they keep overloading the middle of the

513
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,640
Speaker 1: pitch makes it very very difficult for teams to play

514
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 1: through the middle. So a lot of teams that have

515
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,919
Speaker 1: played direct against Byron haven't been as good as they

516
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: happened in years past. So with Byron having i mean

517
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,960
Speaker 1: significantly better underlying numbers than le Rakuson at this point

518
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: this season, there is going to be some aggression for Leverkusen.

519
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to say right now that Leverkusen will lose

520
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: a match by the end of the season. You can

521
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 1: quote me. At some point they're going to lose exactly. Uh.

522
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:43,440
Speaker 1: I'm not going to do some like Chris maddog here

523
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: and be like, if Leverkusen doesn't lose the match, I'll

524
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:48,520
Speaker 1: retire Now. I'm not going to do that. But that

525
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,400
Speaker 1: match against Byron. If Byron beats them on February tenth,

526
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 1: I mean Byron's gonna be back to my three hundred

527
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: to win the Bundesliga. So now is the best time

528
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 1: I believe to buy on Byron to win the title.

529
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: Do you agree?

530
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 2: Yes, I think we're going to get buyer. Gonna be

531
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: plus money there. I think they should be.

532
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:09,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, they probably they should be.

533
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 2: I mean they you know, Byron closed minus one ten

534
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 2: at Dortmund and minus one twenty at Leipzig, and there

535
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,120
Speaker 2: are other two road matches this season. Byron had two

536
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:22,160
Speaker 2: losses in the league, right, and so you can't kind

537
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 2: of overreact to just how good they've been or underreact

538
00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:30,439
Speaker 2: because yeah, I know what the table says right now,

539
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: there's seven points likely to be four. But this, like

540
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 2: this lettercuse, defense for me is more concerning than the attack,

541
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 2: because yeah, of course, like you're not going to continue

542
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,159
Speaker 2: scoring this Ray Grimaldo and the last two uh you

543
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,640
Speaker 2: know matches they score in stoppage time, you know, basically

544
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 2: off of one off a set piece, one off of

545
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:54,160
Speaker 2: open play, and they're getting winners from you know, InCopy

546
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,040
Speaker 2: A and Ezekiel Plasios like these are not your traditional

547
00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 2: goal scorers. And you know, net Net, I think that

548
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 2: this team, as good as they've been, we've seen like

549
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 2: the best already of them. And I still I hate

550
00:27:12,680 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 2: these narratives because I try to avoid them. But something

551
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 2: does feel off about Byron. I just can't figure out

552
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 2: what it is because it doesn't show up in any

553
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 2: of the numbers. It's just you watch them sometimes it

554
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: feels off. And then obviously like the Champions League wasn't

555
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: particularly good. And I've gone back and forth on Byron

556
00:27:26,560 --> 00:27:30,200
Speaker 2: a lot on this show and lost money fading them

557
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 2: at a couple of times. But I kind of think

558
00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 2: that this is the lowest it's going to get. If

559
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 2: you look at Byron's schedule, right Byron, you know they'll

560
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,640
Speaker 2: get Leipsig and Dormant at home, they'll go to Stuttgart

561
00:27:44,680 --> 00:27:49,359
Speaker 2: and they'll go to Lebracus. So from a matchups and

562
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 2: scheduling perspective, Levracusen does have it slightly easier. But yeah,

563
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 2: I think now it's the floor and the pressure that builds.

564
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,119
Speaker 2: The pressure is all on Levracus who famously, if you

565
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:05,359
Speaker 2: don't know, this is nickname Nebrakusen because they never so

566
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:06,919
Speaker 2: I think the pressure builds.

567
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 1: On them, not on mine as much.

568
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:15,280
Speaker 2: So that kind of manifest itself, and I think regression.

569
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: And here's the thing is that as well, you know, Byron,

570
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:20,639
Speaker 1: we fully expect them to make a deeper run in

571
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,760
Speaker 1: the Champions League, but if they get drawn, they will

572
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,280
Speaker 1: get somebody good and they don't. There'll be lots here.

573
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 1: But let's just say they get drawn against City again

574
00:28:30,440 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 1: and they and they lose to them, and they're out

575
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:35,840
Speaker 1: of the Champions League. They're out of the DFP POCAU

576
00:28:36,119 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 1: as well, and Leverkusen is still in that competition. Leverkusen

577
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: is probably going to make a very deep run in

578
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 1: the Europa League, so Leverkusen could be juggling two different

579
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 1: competitions later in the season when Byron isn't and when

580
00:28:49,760 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 1: we get into April, there is a stretch where Leverkusen

581
00:28:54,960 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: has to play Dortmund, stute Gart and Frankfurt all back

582
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 1: to back to back that could be pinned up against

583
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 1: a Europa League a quarter or semi final. And I'm

584
00:29:05,080 --> 00:29:07,479
Speaker 1: not sure where the DFP pocal schedule looks out better now,

585
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: but it could have another Cup match along that, So

586
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:11,760
Speaker 1: things could stack up here for levercoas and to where

587
00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:15,960
Speaker 1: Byron could be just potentially playing one match a week

588
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: and gearing up and making a big run. So yeah,

589
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: I don't think you're going to get a better number

590
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 1: than minus twenty one Byron to win the Boness. I

591
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: don't think it's going to get the plus money. The

592
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 1: only way to get the plus money is if they

593
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: lose to Leverkusen on that DAYTI on February tenth still,

594
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 1: and they truly do for all seven points behind them,

595
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: then that would still be a mountain declimb, but it's

596
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: still not that big of a mountain as long as

597
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 1: lever Couson just finally loses a match. So sorry I've

598
00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 1: not I've gone kind of long on this, but I

599
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:48,400
Speaker 1: think this is this is one of the rare times

600
00:29:48,400 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: that we see one of these like elite teams like

601
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: Blank von Heron. That's a decent number. Actually when the

602
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,120
Speaker 1: Boots coach, they've done.

603
00:29:59,200 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, the league semifinals would fall May second, May not,

604
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 2: so they would they would come on the heels of

605
00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 2: that run that they have. Yeah, and then you know,

606
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:10,760
Speaker 2: from a European perspective, I'd be very annoyed Ifpzig, if

607
00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: Leverkusen punted Europa because I have to betry on them

608
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:16,000
Speaker 2: in a very good number because I thought, like you know,

609
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:17,920
Speaker 2: and they would did punt that and then also just

610
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 2: go win Germany when I didn't let them to win that.

611
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: I invested in.

612
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 2: Leipzig, So that would be a fun way to lose everything.

613
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: So hopefully doesn't happen.

614
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 2: But you know, let's root for Leverkusen in Europe and

615
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:32,280
Speaker 2: for uh the legendary Buyern to.

616
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: Repeat, even though it's kind of boring the last two

617
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,040
Speaker 1: years with with Dortmund and now with levercue Sin it's

618
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 1: actually the Buddhesig is actually enthralling.

619
00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: The hurry Kane narratives are strong. If Kane doesn't win

620
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 2: the Bundesliga this year, they don't, they're not going to

621
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 2: win the Champions League, and they're not winning the PoCA.

622
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 2: Like you said, they're alread out because they also Starbuck

623
00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: and they all of a sudden like the Kane narratives starting,

624
00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: and I really don't want to have to deal with

625
00:30:54,280 --> 00:30:58,160
Speaker 2: that from from Harry Kane haters, of which there are

626
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 2: many for some reason, so I really am hoping ring

627
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 2: four Bayern.

628
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 1: It just feels wrong.

629
00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 2: But anyway, as we move on to this weekend slate,

630
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:12,720
Speaker 2: I'm going to bet Dortmann and Bocum over three and

631
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 2: a half of plus one fifteen. I think it's too low.

632
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 2: I know it's crazy because I've joked in the past

633
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 2: about Dortmund unders because generally their defense was better than

634
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 2: this and their.

635
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 1: Attack ran hot.

636
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 2: But it's actually kind of been the opposite, like Kobol

637
00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 2: has saved a ton of goals for this defense, which

638
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: has not been good under any circumstance. They pumped Colm

639
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,320
Speaker 2: last weekend, good call, BJ we both had that. They

640
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 2: still conceded one point three XG to Cologne and looked

641
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 2: terrible at times, like a better attacking team would have

642
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 2: taken advantage in transition of just how bad this Dorman

643
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 2: team is.

644
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: I think Belkem's the team to do it. Belkem's defense away.

645
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,160
Speaker 2: From home is conceding over two XG per match. It's

646
00:31:47,160 --> 00:31:49,840
Speaker 2: been a consistent trend for multiple years now at Bokum,

647
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 2: where when they're at home they give a solid effort.

648
00:31:52,960 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 2: They're much much more compact. On the road, it's just

649
00:31:56,160 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 2: been a train wreck. They've gotten pouched a bunch of

650
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,120
Speaker 2: times here, including by Leverracus a couple weeks ago. I

651
00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 2: think the total is low at three and a half.

652
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 2: It should be three seven to five, So me the

653
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:09,960
Speaker 2: over Dortmund also now with Mattson and Sancho, yeah, coming

654
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 2: from United and Chelsea like, have clearly looked leveled up

655
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,720
Speaker 2: last weekend. This is a Dortmant attack that you know,

656
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 2: created at least two and a half x G and

657
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:22,920
Speaker 2: three of its last four against similar but maybe even

658
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: better defenses than Bokam against Olsburg, Darmstack Cologne. So I'm

659
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 2: buying this Dortman attack right now. I think the market's

660
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: a little short on it, and I'm still selling the

661
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 2: hell out of this defense. So it's been pretty good

662
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:38,040
Speaker 2: in transition, really good in transition. So over three and

663
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: a half for me.

664
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Freiberg. John Opett even money on the

665
00:32:42,040 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 1: road against verte Bremen coming off that huge upset of

666
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 1: Bayern Munich. But the reality is is that when you

667
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,560
Speaker 1: look at any of verte Bremen's metrics, they are a

668
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: below average team in the Buddhistliga man at thirteenth place,

669
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: so that they are right where they belong. Defense is

670
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:58,959
Speaker 1: allowing one point seven to three XUEP for ninety minutes

671
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 1: they play out of they're like, you know, three four

672
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 1: three or three five two is essentially five guys on

673
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 1: the back line, and they haven't been very good at it.

674
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 1: They like I said, they've been allowing a ton of

675
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: expected goals, but especially against some of the better teams

676
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. Against the top eight teams, they played

677
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 1: nine matches against them and allowed nineteen point two expected goals.

678
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: They're also a team that's very, very reliant on transition

679
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,760
Speaker 1: opportunities to create most of their chances, and they're playing

680
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: a team in Freiburg that kind of plays the exact

681
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 1: same way they're they're not as like trying to get

682
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: quick transitions like Freberg is actually a very slow team

683
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 1: like going forward. But what they want to do is

684
00:33:36,040 --> 00:33:38,120
Speaker 1: they play very like we've mentioned many times, they are

685
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: very similar teams that at Renford in the fact that

686
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 1: they want to get the ball outlive, they want to

687
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: swing in crosses and they're very very good at doing that,

688
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:47,320
Speaker 1: and that is something that Verte Bremnan is very average

689
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 1: at defending. And also the thing with Freiburg is is

690
00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: they are one of the best set piece teams historically

691
00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga. You know, this season they are top

692
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 1: four and xt cheaper set piece. Well, Verte Bremn is

693
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:00,479
Speaker 1: one of the worst teams at defending set peace. So

694
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 1: Friberg's been in great four. You know, they played the

695
00:34:04,640 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 1: best four matches. They've played three teams in the bottom

696
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 1: half the table. In those four matches they've racked up

697
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 1: nine point three expected goals and seven big scoring chances.

698
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,359
Speaker 1: So the offense is really coming through and I really

699
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: don't think it should be underdogs, even if they are

700
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,320
Speaker 1: on the road against Burger Bremen here, So Friberg Toronto

701
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 1: bet money.

702
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Italy. The two bets

703
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 2: I had in Germany and Italy last weekend could not

704
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:34,040
Speaker 2: have gone in a more painful fashion because Milan continues

705
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 2: to own me. They were up one nail, then they

706
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:40,279
Speaker 2: were down to one. Then they scored twice in the

707
00:34:40,320 --> 00:34:44,040
Speaker 2: last ten minutes to win the match, including Oka four on.

708
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 2: Of course another set piece at piece defense has been

709
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 2: the bate of my existence. This year, you are going

710
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 2: back to the well to fade Milan. Yeah, it's my

711
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,720
Speaker 2: Turnament's time with our Bolonnaise boys.

712
00:34:55,120 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. I love Blogna here, I think a lot drastically overvalued.

713
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: You know, they're as high as minus one fifty five

714
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 1: at some books. So I love Bologna plus a half

715
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:10,319
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five. And here's the thing. I

716
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: know you've talked about Milan a lot and how essentially

717
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:14,920
Speaker 1: they've all reformed the next year. You know, they're forty

718
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: one goals up to thirty two point seven expected. The

719
00:35:17,680 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: progression numbers and the getting into the final third numbers

720
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: are actually pretty encouraging from Milan, like the offense is,

721
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 1: you know, underlying metrics are not like elite like like

722
00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 1: teams like Inter or Napoli they're still good, like they're

723
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 1: not like they're not a bad you know, offense. The

724
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,719
Speaker 1: problem is is that Olivier Drude is like the only

725
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: attacker over a point three x cheaper ninety minutes. It's

726
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 1: at him, like you mentioned, like I was been down

727
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:44,840
Speaker 1: polistic just like having a crazy run right now in

728
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,560
Speaker 1: terms of finishing. The main problem from Milan is their defense.

729
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,719
Speaker 1: Like I know that, it only says they're allowing one

730
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,919
Speaker 1: point one non penalty x chep for ninety minutes. Well,

731
00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:57,840
Speaker 1: scoring in Italy is way down this season, and so

732
00:35:58,040 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: one point one is eleventh in Syria A. They're allowing

733
00:36:02,600 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: the fifth most shots, and they're allowing him an incredibly

734
00:36:06,440 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: high expected threat. And really what it comes down to

735
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:11,920
Speaker 1: is Pioli wants his team to man mark all over

736
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 1: the all over the pitch, which if they have their

737
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 1: full roster it's fine. But Tomori is out until middle

738
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: of the middle of February. Jah is out as well,

739
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 1: so basically their two best center backs are not available.

740
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:25,960
Speaker 1: So when you want a man mark, especially a team

741
00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 1: like Bologna that has a guy like Xerxie who's having

742
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 1: an incredible season, you know, xerxe is is interesting because

743
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 1: I wrote about him when I did a you know,

744
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:39,479
Speaker 1: futures column for for Syria. Ah. But he's a deep

745
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: line playmaker, so like he'll come back and really aid

746
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: and build up. So when teams want to play Manda

747
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,200
Speaker 1: Man against them, like he's going to pull center backs

748
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,239
Speaker 1: and whoever else with him along with it and create

749
00:36:49,280 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 1: space for everybody else, which and Bologna really likes to

750
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: do these things called micro transitions, which is essentially like

751
00:36:55,320 --> 00:36:57,840
Speaker 1: line breaking passes or like these really quick like movements

752
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,200
Speaker 1: to get in behind defenses. So if Zerxi is coming

753
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: back and build up and just pulling guys all around

754
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: the pitch with him, it's going to create a lot

755
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 1: of space for all their other attackers. And Bologna is

756
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 1: a very very good defensive team as well, only allowed

757
00:37:10,120 --> 00:37:14,440
Speaker 1: fourteen point four non penalty XG in twenty matches. They

758
00:37:14,440 --> 00:37:16,359
Speaker 1: do a great job in defending their own penalty area.

759
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,319
Speaker 1: Only forty eight percent of opponent's shots are coming from

760
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:21,080
Speaker 1: inside the eighteen yard box. That's one of the best

761
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 1: marks in Syria on inside of only Juventus and Torino.

762
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:29,920
Speaker 1: So I only have Blanad even money. I really like

763
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: Blogia me too. Plus one twenty five. This is a

764
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 1: really good number on a really good team that's had

765
00:37:34,520 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 1: a little a little bad run of form here. You know,

766
00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:39,720
Speaker 1: they got caught on the wrong side of variants against

767
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:45,040
Speaker 1: Fiorentina in in Copa Italia and then they lost to

768
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 1: Caglary in their in their most recent match, which is

769
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:49,520
Speaker 1: basically nothing. They just got common.

770
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:53,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, Bologna has been like better than Milan for

771
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:54,360
Speaker 2: large parts of the season.

772
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 1: Yep.

773
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 2: So you know, are we overreacting to like a small sample,

774
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 2: because like we know what Bologna is. I mean, they've

775
00:38:01,040 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 2: been like a league average Syria team forever. But Milana

776
00:38:04,640 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 2: has really not been impressive to me, and if you

777
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: take out penalties from their numbers, they're barely above average themselves.

778
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:13,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, not a huge edge for me on Milan.

779
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 2: I've got the minus one ten and so I you know,

780
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,399
Speaker 2: plus one thirty, like you said, for them to get

781
00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 2: a result on the road, not a bad bet Napoli.

782
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 2: You know, we're buying the floor on Napoli. I think here,

783
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,880
Speaker 2: you know, Osaman's gone and probably gonna mail in the

784
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,880
Speaker 2: second half at this rate, but he's a way to Afcon.

785
00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:33,879
Speaker 2: So they're playing without him, and the attacking numbers without

786
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 2: him are pretty average. There's not a ton of love here,

787
00:38:37,080 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: but I wrote about this in nicolep but Italian preview

788
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:43,360
Speaker 2: because they did the final and the market essentially steamed

789
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 2: inter up passed what they closed against Lazio in the

790
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 2: semi final, which look, I understand that this Napoli team

791
00:38:49,680 --> 00:38:52,400
Speaker 2: has not been as good this year, and since Missaari

792
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 2: has come in, their underlying numbers have taken a bit

793
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 2: of a dip, but so much of their underlying failure

794
00:38:57,120 --> 00:39:00,439
Speaker 2: has just been purely variants, and I that I wrote

795
00:39:00,480 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: this in the preview for the for the Cup final,

796
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 2: like their xtal per ninety is down a bit this year,

797
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: but again so is the whole league, and they're their

798
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 2: defensive numbers are marginally worse, so that's really where the

799
00:39:13,520 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: most of the the issues have come. Since firing Rudy Garcia.

800
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,720
Speaker 2: They have a plus point three to nine non penalty

801
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 2: XTG difference per ninety, that's like fourth best in Italy,

802
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:28,439
Speaker 2: but they actually have a negative goal difference, so they've

803
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: run really cold and as a result, like this market

804
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: has gotten crazy sour on them, and I get like

805
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 2: if Oceman's really important, but it's still a good team

806
00:39:36,880 --> 00:39:40,640
Speaker 2: with cable attackers Cavard, Scalia, Politanos giving him good x

807
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 2: A numbers. Like even Simone has been okay, not great,

808
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:49,400
Speaker 2: but okay, Like he's having a career year from an

809
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 2: xt GP perspective for ninety in a small sample. So

810
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,120
Speaker 2: really it's just been okay. Napoli is clearly worse, but

811
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:57,839
Speaker 2: how much worse and not worse enough to the point

812
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,880
Speaker 2: where they should be a dog at Lazio catching a

813
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 2: quarter of a goal. So I like Napoli here buying

814
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:07,080
Speaker 2: the dip, taking the naples on the roads.

815
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 1: Also, like Inter on the road against Fiorentina, I think

816
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 1: minus one minus one fifteen is well too low for

817
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,160
Speaker 1: a team like Inter against it. Yeah again, how bad

818
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 1: or performing Fiorentina has been back. I think I've talked

819
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 1: about Fiorentina like every single week, so that's.

820
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: Just they just give up. I mean, like it's it's

821
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 2: interesting because Fiorentina, like we talked about this team. We

822
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 2: love this team in the past, and we like them

823
00:40:29,239 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 2: because they do really good stuff with pressing and possessing

824
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 2: and keeping the ball, but their defense is more open

825
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: this year. They're conceding the by far the worst shots

826
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 2: in the league, and when the whole league zigs and

827
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 2: you zag, which is basically what Fiorentina has done this year.

828
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: Like their defensive numbers have They've been so open and

829
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 2: a league that has become so condensed that you run

830
00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 2: the risk of running both ends of the extreme right.

831
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,000
Speaker 2: If you have a hot, you know, defensive finishing run,

832
00:40:53,040 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: you're not allowing a ton of shots, but you're allowing

833
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,880
Speaker 2: a ton of big chances. If they go in, you're screwed,

834
00:40:58,200 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 2: and if they don't, you can run really hot for

835
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:01,440
Speaker 2: a while and kind of maskt And they're in that

836
00:41:01,520 --> 00:41:04,280
Speaker 2: stage right now where teams haven't really finished well against

837
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 2: them and it's made them look better than they actually are.

838
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 2: Whereas if they fall behind in these games and the

839
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 2: games start to change, I even worry the defense could

840
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:13,840
Speaker 2: fall even further because they have to take more chances

841
00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: because they're playing from behind more So, I think that

842
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:18,399
Speaker 2: this inter team could run it up on Fiorentina would

843
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 2: and shock me. I think generally the market like intercoming

844
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 2: off this big Super Cup trip and the big win,

845
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 2: like we could be flat here, tricky roadspot. But I

846
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 2: think from a number perspective, it is a little short

847
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:30,960
Speaker 2: as well.

848
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also enter as a team that doesn't even

849
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 1: have a ball, Like they're really really good at playing

850
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,880
Speaker 1: a transition at Fuorantino is like one of the highest

851
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 1: possession dominant teams in center. Can just torch them on

852
00:41:42,080 --> 00:41:43,360
Speaker 1: the break over and over again.

853
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Let's go to Spain game

854
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 2: of the year. It's so funny, man. The market on

855
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 2: these two teams has been so much fun Like Gerona

856
00:41:54,800 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 2: goes to Vega, I can't play it either, keep upgrading

857
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 2: go every time they lose. I know every time Vigo loses,

858
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: the market bumps them up. And it's because they obviously

859
00:42:06,760 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 2: haven't been as bad as their numbers.

860
00:42:08,280 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 1: Uh.

861
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,040
Speaker 2: They got beat by Socio Dodd pretty comfortably twice at home,

862
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: and that was just really funny. Right, So, Socia DoD

863
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 2: is you know we gave out Vigo. I think I

864
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:20,080
Speaker 2: gave out Vigo, or maybe you did, both of us.

865
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 2: We both we both bet it plus one thirty against

866
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 2: Socia Dodd last weekend, John Obett. Socia Dodd comes out

867
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 2: with a lineup. No Marino, no Zubamendi, Nokubo. Vigo closes no, no,

868
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 2: your thought will Socio Dodd closes a plus one twenty

869
00:42:37,640 --> 00:42:41,360
Speaker 2: five underdog like Vigo was a clear favorite. Basically, the

870
00:42:41,360 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 2: line flipped and I knew from like the right then

871
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 2: and there we were. We were in deep shit. And

872
00:42:46,040 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 2: it turns out anywhere comfortable road win for Soci Dodd

873
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 2: one nil. Vigo never really looked like scoring. And then

874
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 2: they did it again in the cup on Tuesday, uh

875
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:57,520
Speaker 2: in the Copa del Rey to one to Socio DoD

876
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:07,239
Speaker 2: dominant again. So now the first placed team, Girona is

877
00:43:07,320 --> 00:43:11,360
Speaker 2: visiting the sixteenth placed team in the Leaga. That is

878
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 2: the equivalent of Liverpool going on the road to Nottingham Forest. Right,

879
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:21,320
Speaker 2: what do you think the line would be if Liverpool

880
00:43:21,360 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 2: went to Nottingham Forest.

881
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:26,680
Speaker 1: Tomorrow minus two thirty something like that, right.

882
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 2: Maybe a little shorter because of solid you know, twenty minimum.

883
00:43:29,920 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 2: Now Girona is a pick them yet, and it's so funny.

884
00:43:35,239 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: I tweeted about it. I agree, I know what you're saying. Yeah,

885
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 2: Girona is a little short handed right now. And I

886
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 2: would never ever ever bet them in this Like if

887
00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 2: they were lined, they were lined as a dog, I

888
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 2: would consider it. But I mean, Vigo hasn't been better

889
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 2: than Girona this year on they were talking about a

890
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 2: league average team and a Girona's side that's like a

891
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 2: deserving top four or candidate.

892
00:44:01,080 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 1: Mm hmm.

893
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,240
Speaker 2: But yeah, I will not. I will not be betting

894
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,760
Speaker 2: my Super Bowl and that's just lame from a market perspective.

895
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,040
Speaker 2: I mean, give me a shot, right, just let us

896
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 2: lose our money. Come on, yeah, they just give me

897
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 2: like plus a half or a quarter. I would have

898
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: taken it, but us I cannot. I cannot bet Vego,

899
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:20,839
Speaker 2: you know, like you could sell me on a team

900
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:24,680
Speaker 2: total for Vigo just because this Dernah defense is such

901
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: a fraud. But but exactly, it's really tough watching the

902
00:44:29,560 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: Geronah's defense is bottom half though, I.

903
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: Know, but I watched that entire sociated Vego match and

904
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 1: like Vigo had one cross that they maybe should have

905
00:44:38,200 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 1: scored outside of that literally.

906
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 2: Not aespcially that's defense is considerably better they are. I'm

907
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:49,080
Speaker 2: I'm uh, I can't. I think, Yeah, it's it's so tough.

908
00:44:49,800 --> 00:44:51,400
Speaker 2: So the market is pretty good at this point in

909
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 2: the season, so that makes finding these big edges tough.

910
00:44:54,840 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 2: Valencia is an edge for me against and Letty, I think,

911
00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: let's generally or value because they don't defend anymore. Their

912
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 2: defensive numbers have really fallen off. They're sixth in XGA

913
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:08,839
Speaker 2: in La Liga. If you just watch them, like they're

914
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:12,520
Speaker 2: conceding over one per match, and its just like as

915
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 2: good as Marata and Greasment have been, and they continue

916
00:45:15,040 --> 00:45:19,760
Speaker 2: to just not age like this Valencia defense is elite,

917
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 2: and I think they can, you know, keep this game

918
00:45:22,160 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 2: close and kind of grind it down. So catching over

919
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 2: a goal I like Valencia.

920
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 1: I like os Assuma plus a half against Sevilla, another

921
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:33,000
Speaker 1: Sevilla fade. But the market just continues.

922
00:45:33,120 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 2: Those continue to pay man.

923
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,919
Speaker 1: Well, they continue to price them like they're in above

924
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,280
Speaker 1: average lollage, not even like a top four candidate anymore,

925
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:41,080
Speaker 1: but like they continue to price them like they're just

926
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: an above average La League team, which is just not

927
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:45,719
Speaker 1: the case. I feel like I've talked about them every

928
00:45:45,760 --> 00:45:50,040
Speaker 1: single week, but you know, this offense has actually been

929
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 1: really bad, Like they're only averaging one point zero three

930
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 1: non penalty XG for ninety minutes despite being you know,

931
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,720
Speaker 1: top five expected threat final third entries and shots lowest

932
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 1: sex cheaper shot in La Liga, and have also taken

933
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 1: the third few shots inside the six yard box, so

934
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:06,520
Speaker 1: just really once they get in the final third, they

935
00:46:06,560 --> 00:46:09,760
Speaker 1: don't really have any creative aspect to get a good chance,

936
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 1: and the only like good good chances they get are

937
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:15,359
Speaker 1: just swinging acrosses to in the Syria. Well he's not there.

938
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 1: He's with Morocco at Afcon right now. He is the

939
00:46:20,120 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: only obviously you know, is leading them in goals and

940
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,320
Speaker 1: shots for ninety. He's also the only attacker only above

941
00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: a point two x chieper Nina minute scoring rate, so

942
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 1: they have literally nobody besides him, and I don't really

943
00:46:34,239 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 1: know who They're going to start up top against an

944
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:39,400
Speaker 1: Oston team that has been improving, you know over since

945
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: the beginning of December. They're their top five and expect

946
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 1: a gold differential. Like they're a team that likes to

947
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 1: get the ball wide and swinging crosses, which is something

948
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:49,640
Speaker 1: that Sabia has struggled against. You know. So we also

949
00:46:49,640 --> 00:46:54,240
Speaker 1: have bad transition defense, so really don't see a scenario

950
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 1: where Sabia should be basically around even money favorite at home.

951
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,920
Speaker 1: They're also playing on Thursday against at Letti in the

952
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:04,479
Speaker 1: Copa del Rey, so short rests for Civia and since

953
00:47:04,520 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 1: the beginning of October, Sabia has won one match in

954
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,279
Speaker 1: La Liga and it was against Granada at home. And

955
00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:15,960
Speaker 1: Granada is for all intensive purposes, probably the worst or

956
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: second worst team in LUI of the season, currently sitting

957
00:47:18,480 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: the relegation zone. So Osasuna plus a half minus one twenty.

958
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 2: For me, all right, you have something in France and

959
00:47:27,120 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 2: then you have something. Let's let's talk AFCN.

960
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, real quick reams. Minus one fifteen against NaNs Reems

961
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:34,759
Speaker 1: is a little short handed because you know, some of

962
00:47:34,760 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 1: their key players are at Afcon and the Asian Cup.

963
00:47:38,200 --> 00:47:40,479
Speaker 1: But they had a really good performance against Monaco, being

964
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:42,280
Speaker 1: done three one on the road, winning the XG battle.

965
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 1: Without all of those key players, will still as a

966
00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:48,120
Speaker 1: great technician who can really Maneuver's team run very well.

967
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,399
Speaker 1: And Nance is a below average team in League Gun,

968
00:47:50,880 --> 00:47:52,840
Speaker 1: very very bad team on the road. So minus one

969
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,080
Speaker 1: to fifteen I think is way too cheap at a

970
00:47:55,080 --> 00:47:57,480
Speaker 1: price for a team at this good And let's talk

971
00:47:57,480 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 1: about Afcon because it's been fun. It's been a really

972
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 1: fun tournament.

973
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:05,000
Speaker 2: We are profitable for those that have been reading unexpected.

974
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,840
Speaker 1: Goals, that's true, unexpected goals, hanging out and always you know,

975
00:48:07,840 --> 00:48:09,120
Speaker 1: I've been given out a lot of stuff in our

976
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:11,719
Speaker 1: discord as well, so if somebody wants to follow along

977
00:48:11,800 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: during this tournament, I've been giving out a lot of

978
00:48:13,560 --> 00:48:17,160
Speaker 1: thoughts and some some early bets in our discord, so

979
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: to make sure you join that. I mean, antheyter in

980
00:48:19,960 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: there pretty much every single day. But we are recording

981
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: this on Wednesday afternoon. We're right in the middle. Molli

982
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: and Namibia are nail now, same thing good Tunisia and

983
00:48:34,400 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 1: South Africa. So for all things old, Mali is going

984
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: to win the group and be paired in the same

985
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 1: section up for the rind of sixteenth, the same section

986
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 1: as Senegal. But we have one opener out right now

987
00:48:45,640 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 1: as we record this, and it's Nigeria Cameroon, and I

988
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 1: think it's a terrible opener. Quite frankly, I think it's horrible.

989
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,360
Speaker 1: Nigeria is sitting at about plus one fifty on the

990
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:58,560
Speaker 1: three way money line, you know, Cameron is plus two fifteen.

991
00:48:59,320 --> 00:49:02,239
Speaker 1: I've spoken Nigeria a lot. I have them to win

992
00:49:02,280 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: the AFT Con. I think there they are the first

993
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:09,000
Speaker 1: or second best team in Africa at least top three

994
00:49:09,440 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: along with Tororocco and Senegal. They've looked fine so far

995
00:49:13,640 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: this saft Con. They obviously, their first match against Equatorial

996
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: Guinea has was you know a crazy luck box draw

997
00:49:21,320 --> 00:49:23,759
Speaker 1: for Ecrctorial Guinea because Nigeria created close to three and

998
00:49:23,760 --> 00:49:27,239
Speaker 1: a half expected goals and drew one to one. They

999
00:49:27,239 --> 00:49:29,360
Speaker 1: had a good performance, you know, in a very cagy

1000
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:32,719
Speaker 1: match against the Ivory Coast and then you know, they

1001
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:34,960
Speaker 1: didn't do much against Guinea basal, but they were very

1002
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:38,799
Speaker 1: very good defensively and that's something that can carry them

1003
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:40,960
Speaker 1: through this tournament. Like I said, coming into the tournament,

1004
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,600
Speaker 1: they were number one in Africa and expected goals allowed

1005
00:49:43,600 --> 00:49:46,520
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes and they continued that into this tournament

1006
00:49:46,560 --> 00:49:49,879
Speaker 1: so far. Cameroon, if he didn't watch it, go watch

1007
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: the highlights because the final, you know, ten minutes fifteen

1008
00:49:54,800 --> 00:49:59,879
Speaker 1: minutes to see minutes was absolutely insane. You know, cam

1009
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:05,040
Speaker 1: scored to go upon nothing like Gambia immediately answered them.

1010
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: Cameroon came back and scored again. Excuse me. Gambia went

1011
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,359
Speaker 1: up to one and it looked like they were going

1012
00:50:12,400 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 1: through at one point UH and Cameroon scored like literally

1013
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: like a one minute later off of an known goal.

1014
00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:21,360
Speaker 1: UH and then scored again deep into stoppage time, and

1015
00:50:21,360 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 1: then it looked like Gambia had gotten a clincher, a

1016
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,799
Speaker 1: three to three draw, and they did the replay and

1017
00:50:27,760 --> 00:50:30,719
Speaker 1: it was like a famous Diego Maradona hand of God

1018
00:50:30,920 --> 00:50:33,080
Speaker 1: like move. He basically just like slapped them all into

1019
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:34,080
Speaker 1: the nets.

1020
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,640
Speaker 2: Almost me between the bench on the ref. It was.

1021
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:37,600
Speaker 2: It was an incredible the.

1022
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:39,760
Speaker 1: It was, it was an incredible theater. It was crazy.

1023
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,880
Speaker 2: But anyway, Cameroons like at like one in the afternoon

1024
00:50:42,920 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 2: on a Tuesday.

1025
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,560
Speaker 1: Exactly what else do you want? I mean, this tournament

1026
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:51,040
Speaker 1: has been incredible, but yeah, so it looks like so

1027
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:53,320
Speaker 1: those two are going to play now. Cameroon, if you

1028
00:50:53,360 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 1: don't know, has been a very very underwhelming team in

1029
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:59,560
Speaker 1: Africa for quite a long time now. They obviously were

1030
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:01,400
Speaker 1: at the World Up and they played a couple you know,

1031
00:51:01,480 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 1: crazy matches. They eat Brazil on a match that you know,

1032
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 1: it didn't matter at all. But this version of Cameron

1033
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 1: is significantly less talented than the team that was at

1034
00:51:09,600 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 1: the World Cup, and comparatively to what Nigeria has, they

1035
00:51:12,960 --> 00:51:15,319
Speaker 1: are way way better than them. That is the only

1036
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,919
Speaker 1: opener that we have out right now for Afcon. One

1037
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 1: thing I'll just Telebrady to look out right there. I

1038
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 1: have to talk about Ectorial Guinea and what they did

1039
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:27,359
Speaker 1: to win Group AG. So they scored, you know, they

1040
00:51:27,360 --> 00:51:31,240
Speaker 1: had a they had a crazy They beat the Ivory

1041
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:37,240
Speaker 1: Coast in their own country for nothing, and they lost

1042
00:51:37,280 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 1: the XG battle in that match one point two to

1043
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:41,839
Speaker 1: two point two. They got out shot twenty two to nine.

1044
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:45,200
Speaker 1: So they basically just scored on every single shot that

1045
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:50,840
Speaker 1: they had. It was crazy. Overall. For the group stage,

1046
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:53,760
Speaker 1: they had nine goals for three goals against only about

1047
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 1: three and a half expected goals for in about six

1048
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,680
Speaker 1: and a half against. They basically overformed by about nine

1049
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,680
Speaker 1: goals in three during the group stage. They're gonna play

1050
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:06,800
Speaker 1: Guinea in the Guinea Darby if for the round of sixteen.

1051
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:13,520
Speaker 1: If if Guinea is anything plus one twenty or better,

1052
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:18,319
Speaker 1: I will be hammering that line as well. But for

1053
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,120
Speaker 1: some futures out there, Guinea is still fifty to one

1054
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 1: to win this tournament. Since they draw Equatorial Guinea, they're

1055
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 1: gonna get the winner of Egypt and the dr Congo,

1056
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: which is a great path to get to the semifinals,

1057
00:52:32,960 --> 00:52:36,480
Speaker 1: where they will play most likely either the Ivory Coast, Senegal,

1058
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 1: or Mally, which you know obviously wouldn't be that great

1059
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,960
Speaker 1: of a matchup, but you can get a team that's

1060
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 1: essentially fifty to one into a semifinal and with a

1061
00:52:45,360 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: shot to get into the finals.

1062
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 2: So you know, Nigeria Alaskon is to expect chaos.

1063
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 1: Expect chaos, that's right. I mean, Ghana is going home.

1064
00:52:54,600 --> 00:52:56,480
Speaker 1: If you didn't watch what happened to Ghana, they were

1065
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: up to nothing and they conceded two stoppage time goals

1066
00:52:59,320 --> 00:53:04,520
Speaker 1: and they're going home, which is crazy. So Algeria, Algeria's

1067
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: going home. They lost to Maritana the other day, which

1068
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:11,680
Speaker 1: a famous scene in Discord said they should pump them.

1069
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:13,680
Speaker 1: They did not. They got beat.

1070
00:53:13,920 --> 00:53:16,440
Speaker 2: No such thing, no such thing as an undervalued favorite

1071
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 2: in Nafton.

1072
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. So it's been a crazy tournament. It's been

1073
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 1: a lot of fun. The round of sixteen should provide

1074
00:53:24,360 --> 00:53:26,480
Speaker 1: a lot more chaos. I mean, we're probably going to

1075
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 1: be in a situation here where the where Senegal is

1076
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,800
Speaker 1: going to play the ivory posts in the first round

1077
00:53:32,160 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 1: because they have the coast finished third in their group

1078
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 1: despite being the home nation, and there's tough matchup, tough matchup,

1079
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,400
Speaker 1: but there's going to be a lot of just like

1080
00:53:42,400 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 1: like for example, you know, since Kate Faraday won their

1081
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:47,720
Speaker 1: group as well, they're going to play Maritana in around sixteen.

1082
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:51,240
Speaker 2: Like it's it's I mean, whoever wins that matchup is.

1083
00:53:51,440 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: It gets and gets the winner of Senegal Cameroon. So

1084
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 1: it's like, you know, if you want to get on

1085
00:53:56,680 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 1: Nigeria right now, like they're still you know, seven to

1086
00:53:59,400 --> 00:54:01,040
Speaker 1: one one out there if you want to get in

1087
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 1: on them now. So yeah, it's been crazy. So yeah,

1088
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:06,880
Speaker 1: a couple ones I looked at were Nigeria. I've already

1089
00:54:06,880 --> 00:54:09,480
Speaker 1: bet them pretty heavily, John Obett at minus one forty

1090
00:54:09,520 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: and then if Guinea opens at plus one twenty or better,

1091
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 1: which I do expect them to, although the market has

1092
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:20,800
Speaker 1: been pretty sour and equatorial getting throughout this entire tournament

1093
00:54:20,840 --> 00:54:22,360
Speaker 1: so far. I mean, they were ten to one against

1094
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 1: the Ivory Coast, so we'll see what happens. But it's

1095
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 1: been a crazy tournament so far. Again, if you want

1096
00:54:29,000 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 1: to fall along with Afgon, I've been getting out picks

1097
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:33,880
Speaker 1: on my Twitter. You can read my daily column Unexpected

1098
00:54:33,920 --> 00:54:36,200
Speaker 1: Goals or if you join the Action Never Discord Soccer

1099
00:54:36,239 --> 00:54:38,440
Speaker 1: channel I've been getting out picks there and kind of

1100
00:54:38,440 --> 00:54:40,160
Speaker 1: falling along with the tournament as well. So if you

1101
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 1: want to get involved with AFT con there and the

1102
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:45,000
Speaker 1: Asia Cup round sixteen as well will be starting there.

1103
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,520
Speaker 1: There is a shot that Japan had a shock loss

1104
00:54:48,560 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 1: to the to Iraq, so they finished second in their group,

1105
00:54:52,000 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 1: and there is a scenario where if South Korea they

1106
00:54:59,000 --> 00:55:04,040
Speaker 1: have to overcome a two goal deficit because Jordan beat

1107
00:55:04,640 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 1: Malaysia for nothing, that South Korea if they overcome that

1108
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: and finished first in their group, they eat drawn with

1109
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 1: Japan in the round of sixteen, and then I ran

1110
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: waits for them in the quarterfinals.

1111
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:19,439
Speaker 2: So the three best teams all drawn into the same

1112
00:55:19,480 --> 00:55:20,920
Speaker 2: section of the drawing bomb section.

1113
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 1: So if that, if that happens, I put this in

1114
00:55:23,320 --> 00:55:26,040
Speaker 1: the discord this morning. If that all happens, I would

1115
00:55:26,040 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 1: bet Australia at seven to one because they're packed. They'll

1116
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: get essentially a third place team, and then they'll get

1117
00:55:31,760 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, who is the team that I don't think

1118
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:36,719
Speaker 1: is really that good. Basically, then't even expect the older

1119
00:55:36,760 --> 00:55:40,080
Speaker 1: frenchial team over the last two years, and despite beating

1120
00:55:40,320 --> 00:55:42,040
Speaker 1: Argentina in the Fluke game, in.

1121
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 2: That was that was a hair of a special.

1122
00:55:45,320 --> 00:55:48,080
Speaker 1: That was a hair of a special. He's not there anymore.

1123
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: And so yeah, if that happens, Australia has a like

1124
00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:57,680
Speaker 1: cake draw outside of playing Sai. Saudi Arabia's in the final,

1125
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:01,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, it's gonna be it's gonna be interesting.

1126
00:56:01,880 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 1: So futures in in uh, the Asian Cup are are

1127
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:07,359
Speaker 1: kind of up for grabs right now with the top

1128
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,439
Speaker 1: half of the bracket. If but then, but then here's

1129
00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:11,319
Speaker 1: the other thing is like, if South Korea decides, you

1130
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 1: know what, maybe we just maybe we just passed ball

1131
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 1: round and we play for a draw, because if they

1132
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 1: do that, they're going to be paired in the top

1133
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:21,799
Speaker 1: half of the of the of the bracket, away from

1134
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: Japan and away from Iran, away from Qatar as well.

1135
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:28,879
Speaker 1: So it's very very interesting. All that's gonna go down

1136
00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 1: tomorrow morning, as you're you know, listening to this on

1137
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,120
Speaker 1: Thursday and probably already has happened. But yeah, it's been

1138
00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 1: a couple of crazy tournaments so far. It's been a

1139
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:40,000
Speaker 1: lot of fun, and uh, let's hope we can continue

1140
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 1: having some fun.

1141
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 2: Absolutely, you have an underdog. I'm not gonna do a

1142
00:56:43,200 --> 00:56:45,960
Speaker 2: full parlay thing because Michael's not here, but yeah.

1143
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 1: That's true. If I do underdog, I'll do Bristol City

1144
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 1: against Nottingham Forest will be my.

1145
00:56:50,680 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 2: Underdog, and I will go with Ossuna against Sevilla, who

1146
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:56,920
Speaker 2: doesn't have a striker or a defense. Yep, so that'll

1147
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 2: be our dogs. Well, I don't even know what that

1148
00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:00,640
Speaker 2: parlay pays out to. It's only two legs. We won't

1149
00:57:00,680 --> 00:57:02,879
Speaker 2: count it as like a big win obviously, but those

1150
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 2: will be the dogs. I think we did Udernese last week,

1151
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:07,640
Speaker 2: which was in hilarious fashion loss, but that will do

1152
00:57:07,680 --> 00:57:11,680
Speaker 2: it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Michael will actually

1153
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,399
Speaker 2: be back. I said that last week that he'd be back,

1154
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 2: but he will actually be on the show on Monday's

1155
00:57:16,200 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 2: episode as we preview the Premier League, which makes its

1156
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,120
Speaker 2: return a full Premier League slate which we have not

1157
00:57:21,240 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 2: had since December heading into January, so we have a

1158
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:28,880
Speaker 2: full Premier League slate. There's some really good match ups Liverpool, Chelsea,

1159
00:57:29,000 --> 00:57:33,880
Speaker 2: Newcastle Villa, Tottenham, Brentford, Arsenal Forests, so some really fun

1160
00:57:33,920 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 2: ones to get into. We're gonna get to that on Monday.

1161
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 2: We'll probably do some Afcon and Asha Cup as well

1162
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 2: as we get further into those tournaments. Knockout Start I

1163
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 2: believe Saturday for those tournaments, so that will be entertaining

1164
00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 2: as well. Thanks to b J Cunningham for joining me,

1165
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 2: Thanks to Bet three six five, Thanks to Noah, our producer,

1166
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,520
Speaker 2: and everybody who makes this podcast go. We will see

1167
00:57:53,560 --> 00:57:55,440
Speaker 2: you next week, and we will see you in the

1168
00:57:55,440 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: Discord channels between now and then. Thanks for everybody for listening.

1169
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1170
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:12,080
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1171
00:58:12,120 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler