1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:09,600 Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 4 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,640 Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 5 00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,480 Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:21,400 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: Right now, let's talk about the retailers the consumer. The 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 1: consumer's dealing with a tremendous amount of inflation out there, 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 1: potentially a recession on the horizon. How's that impacting what 10 00:00:31,400 --> 00:00:33,840 Speaker 1: folks are actually buying out there in the stores. Mariy 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,519 Speaker 1: Shore joins us ES as a senior equity analyst for 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: Columbia thread Needle Investments. Mari, thanks so much for joining 13 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: us here. I mean, we're kind of getting the summer doldoens, 14 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:44,520 Speaker 1: but it's not gonna be too soon. We'll be talking 15 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:47,519 Speaker 1: about back to school and the holidays. Just give us 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: your overview of kind of how retailers are doing, how 17 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,159 Speaker 1: the consumer's doing out there in the malls of America. 18 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks so much for having me again. I think overall, 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 3: we continue to see the consumer across income segment coming 20 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 3: under additional pressure, and I think that's really following a 21 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 3: couple of years of elevated food inflation really catching up 22 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: with people. On top of that, lower tax refunds, lower 23 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 3: snap benefits are weighing on the low end consumer. So 24 00:01:18,760 --> 00:01:23,400 Speaker 3: we've really seen the slowing across the board. And when 25 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:29,039 Speaker 3: we really dissect the different categories of PCE spend, we 26 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: continue to see the consumer spending more on services over goods, 27 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 3: and within goods, more on needs over onants. So I 28 00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,840 Speaker 3: think it's a lot more of the same, a lot 29 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 3: of the same themes that we have been talking about continuing. 30 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:49,080 Speaker 3: The quarter to date trends for many retailers are not 31 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 3: good and that places additional risk on their sales assumptions 32 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 3: for the back half the year, especially as you said, 33 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 3: if we do enter a recession. 34 00:01:58,960 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 4: If you do look at the fifty two week high 35 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 4: list in May, lots of consumer oriented stocks on that 36 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 4: so Clorox, Hershey's, Pepsical, Most and Cores. You also want 37 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 4: to look at the discretionary side of things McDonald's, AutoZone bookings, 38 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 4: d R. Horton, I want to get your thoughts on 39 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 4: how you view this when it comes to the equity 40 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 4: market and how you're advising clients to potentially position at 41 00:02:23,960 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 4: this point. 42 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 3: Yes, absolutely, it's a great question. And you know, some 43 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 3: of those names that you talked about are more geared 44 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:36,079 Speaker 3: towards services like eating out and travel, which are still 45 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 3: two very strong areas within consumer. Outside of that, you 46 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 3: mentioned a lot of the staples companies, and we continue 47 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 3: to see better results from those companies as consumers are 48 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 3: forced to spend more on needs as I was saying, 49 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 3: and so what we're trying to do really is basket 50 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,920 Speaker 3: our holdings between some of the more defense of names 51 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 3: that are holding in better in a weakening macro backdrop, 52 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 3: but also coupling that with higher beta names that in 53 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:16,440 Speaker 3: some cases have exposure to China or categories as you mentioned, 54 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:20,480 Speaker 3: like eating out, travel, even parts of I would say 55 00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 3: the athletic complex like Nike and Lulu Lemon that continue 56 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 3: to show very strong results. 57 00:03:27,639 --> 00:03:31,239 Speaker 1: So Mark, talk to us about I guess one of 58 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 1: the things I noticed during the some of the earnings 59 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: from the consumer products companies, whether it's Coco Cola or 60 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:40,120 Speaker 1: Procter and Gamble, their ability to pass along price increases 61 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: I was pretty impressive to maintain margin. How long can 62 00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: you continue to do that. 63 00:03:45,960 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 3: It's a great question, and food historically has been a 64 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 3: category that has had very little pricing power, of course, 65 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 3: very competitive, lots of risk of substitution and trade down 66 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 3: to private label, and it's really been several years of 67 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 3: double digit inflation in some of these categories. 68 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: You know. 69 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 3: Now we've seen food at home inflation slow to the 70 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:12,800 Speaker 3: high single digit range, but shockingly, we continue to see. 71 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 5: The consumer absorb that. 72 00:04:14,200 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: You know, some of the companies are starting to talk 73 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 3: about signs of trade down and private label gaining share, 74 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 3: but for the most part, the consumer is really absorbing 75 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:28,240 Speaker 3: these higher costs, and I think in large part it 76 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:33,440 Speaker 3: does reflect behavioral changes both during and post pandemic, where 77 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 3: people are spending more time at home, eating more at home, 78 00:04:37,680 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: you know, more focused on health and wellness, and you know, 79 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:45,480 Speaker 3: the additional benefits that eating at home can offer versus 80 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 3: eating out. And so for that reason, I think overall 81 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:52,839 Speaker 3: we are a lot more positive on these companies being 82 00:04:52,880 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 3: able to maintain pricing and not see huge negative volume 83 00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 3: offsets to that, both in terms of the staples companies 84 00:05:02,680 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 3: and the staples retailers. 85 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 4: So then is the worst past when it comes to 86 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 4: the margin pain when it comes to these consumer focused companies. 87 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 3: It's a great question, and it really varies by category. 88 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:17,520 Speaker 3: What I would say is for a lot of the 89 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:23,719 Speaker 3: more discretionary exposed retailers that I focus on, even though 90 00:05:23,760 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 3: we are seeing margin tailwinds from lower freight costs and 91 00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:35,120 Speaker 3: in some cases lower markdowns, unfortunately shrink has become a 92 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:39,239 Speaker 3: much bigger headwind that all of these companies have had 93 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,920 Speaker 3: to deal with, and I think they're all working very 94 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 3: hard to try to combat it. And then in addition, 95 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:50,840 Speaker 3: because of unfavorable category mix, so in other words, people 96 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:54,480 Speaker 3: buying more food versus apparel is a real negative for 97 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 3: broader companies, and so unfortunately that's an incremental margin headwind 98 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 3: that these companies are having to face. So overall, I 99 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 3: would say, still lots of moving pieces on the margin line, 100 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 3: and it really varies by category and brand in terms 101 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 3: of who is best able to pass along the facing. 102 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 1: So, Maria, you know, let's stuck on the luxury side 103 00:06:23,160 --> 00:06:26,160 Speaker 1: of the retail space. If I walk down Fifth Avenue 104 00:06:26,200 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 1: or Madison Avenue today, I will see lots of European 105 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 1: tours and hopefully they're spending money. But what I won't 106 00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: see is Chinese tourists yet, when do you expect because 107 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: that's such a big part of the global luxury market, 108 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:43,840 Speaker 1: is a purchasing power of Chinese consumers, when do you 109 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 1: expect that to really be seen. 110 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:51,679 Speaker 3: That's a great question. Unfortunately, the resumption of international travel 111 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 3: out of China has been very slow, right, and that 112 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 3: has been a big issue for European luxury companies, even 113 00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 3: for some beauty companies like Essay Lauder that are more 114 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 3: exposed to travel retail. And it seems like, you know, 115 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 3: this recovery post COVID in China is just taking a 116 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 3: lot longer than anyone expected. So it could be you know, 117 00:07:16,000 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 3: another six to twelve months before we really start to 118 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 3: see that consumer come back in a bigger way. You know. 119 00:07:22,480 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 3: In the meantime, these companies are all seeing still pretty 120 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 3: strong business in China. In Europe, the business is actually 121 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,040 Speaker 3: surprisingly resilient, and a lot of the companies have talked 122 00:07:36,040 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 3: about the return of the Middle Eastern tourists, which has helped. 123 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 3: But in North America, you know, even despite the return 124 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:48,440 Speaker 3: of some European tourism, unfortunately, the business has weakened for 125 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 3: a lot of luxury companies. Whether that be you know, 126 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 3: the luxury department stores that we know like the Facts 127 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 3: of the World, or even some of the luxury e 128 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 3: comma businesses like a far a far Thatch for instance, 129 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 3: or you know the European luxury companies that have exposure 130 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 3: to North America. They've all talked about a slowdown and 131 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 3: that really speaks to you know, the first point that 132 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 3: I was making, which is that across income segment, we 133 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 3: are seeing the consumers coming under additional pressure. And remember 134 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 3: a lot of these categories too, were surprisingly strong during 135 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 3: the pandemic, and so I think part of the slowdown 136 00:08:30,760 --> 00:08:34,480 Speaker 3: more recently just reflex going up against a couple a 137 00:08:34,559 --> 00:08:36,880 Speaker 3: couple of years of more difficult comparisons. 138 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: All right, Mary, thank you so much for joining us. 139 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 1: Marie Shuore, senior equity analysts, Columbia Thread Need to Investments, 140 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: giving us a broad overview what's happening with the consumer 141 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 1: out there, both in terms of retail sales and just 142 00:08:49,280 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 1: consumer products in general. So generally, you know, the consumer 143 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: seems pretty darn strong, given that those inflation headwinds and 144 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 1: then maybe some economic slowdown future. 145 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 4: Also looking at the ratio of equal we discretionary versus staples, 146 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:06,360 Speaker 4: it stops hitting a low, but as you know, discretionary 147 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 4: really been driven by home builder stocks as well this year. 148 00:09:08,960 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 6: Paul, Absolutely, you're listening to the teenth Ken's a live 149 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 6: program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg 150 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 6: dot Com, the iHeartRadio app and. 151 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:22,240 Speaker 7: The Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you 152 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:23,360 Speaker 7: get your podcasts. 153 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,079 Speaker 1: Just meting here with Paul Swinging and a Bloomberg and 154 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 1: Actor broker studio here. Looking at the SPX, the standard 155 00:09:30,320 --> 00:09:32,679 Speaker 1: pores five hundred. We quote it all the time. It's 156 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,319 Speaker 1: up ten percent year to date. Let me take the 157 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:39,679 Speaker 1: spy that has the sp five hundred equal weight index 158 00:09:40,160 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 1: that's actually down zero point five percent year to date, 159 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: showing you, you know, the real what's really driving this 160 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: market index is higher which your. 161 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 4: Handful of namesake tech names. 162 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,240 Speaker 1: So really I don't recall it ever being like that, 163 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 1: but that kind of to me just goes to a 164 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 1: lack of breath in this market I know for a 165 00:09:57,800 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: lot of them. 166 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 4: Actually, it's the fourth biggest divergent when you're looking at 167 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:03,320 Speaker 4: megacap versus the equal weight. 168 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,760 Speaker 1: That makes I just haven't seen it that much. So 169 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 1: Sam Dunlop. Maybe he has. He's a CIO at Angel 170 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:13,000 Speaker 1: Oak Capital Advisors. So, Stam, what's that tell you when 171 00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:14,679 Speaker 1: you look at the s p X versus the s 172 00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,079 Speaker 1: p Y, big, big divergence there. 173 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,599 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, absolutely the divergence and the surge that 174 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 8: we've seen notably intact this year has been you know, 175 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:30,800 Speaker 8: pretty extraordinary. Uh. But you know where we tend to 176 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 8: focus or in the fixed income markets and particularly related 177 00:10:35,200 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 8: to residential mortgage backed securities, and today's data, particularly the 178 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 8: case Shiller index, you know, kind of really corroborated our 179 00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:46,560 Speaker 8: view that housing in particular is really beginning to stay 180 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:50,520 Speaker 8: laws here, which is a real positive, particularly for mortgage 181 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 8: backed securities. 182 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 4: So Sam, how are you advising clients to position at 183 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 4: this moment? 184 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 8: Yeah, So, you know, we really think that we are 185 00:11:01,080 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 8: at near peak policy and peak volatility, particularly as it 186 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,480 Speaker 8: relates to the FED and the aggressive path that we've 187 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,560 Speaker 8: seen clearly thus far to tamp down the aggressive inflation 188 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 8: we saw, you know, on the heels of of COVID. 189 00:11:15,720 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 8: But we see that that peak policy really nearing here 190 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:23,439 Speaker 8: and taking advantage of the extraordinary elevated levels of implied 191 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 8: interest rate volatility, which in our opinion is set to 192 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 8: decline here as the FED reversus course really in the 193 00:11:31,160 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 8: second half of this year, which we think will be 194 00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 8: a real positive for mortgage backed securities and taking advantage 195 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:41,400 Speaker 8: of the extremely high yields that investors can capture today, 196 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 8: just given the historically widespread and as well as just 197 00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 8: all in you know, high current yields in today's environment. 198 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 4: Sam, I knew earlier this year you were predicting potentially 199 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,480 Speaker 4: a brief recession in the US. Do you still think 200 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 4: that's going to happen. 201 00:11:57,240 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 8: Yeah, you know, we're still in the recession camp, particularly 202 00:11:59,800 --> 00:12:02,600 Speaker 8: for the second half of this year, as I mentioned earlier, 203 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 8: as we're really reaching in our view, peak policy and 204 00:12:05,440 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 8: peak volatility here, really on the heels of the recent 205 00:12:10,840 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 8: bank crisis that we saw clearly in March. In the 206 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 8: first quarter of this year, we see that really tightening 207 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 8: lending conditions notably, and you'll begin to see that really 208 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:24,480 Speaker 8: filter through in the growth data in the latter part 209 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:28,880 Speaker 8: of twenty twenty three. Really see the pausing and potentially 210 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,200 Speaker 8: easing here late this year and into early next. 211 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: Sam, talk to us about kind of the credit quality 212 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: you're seeing out there and some of the portfolios. Given 213 00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 1: this big move up in mortgage rates. 214 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 8: Absolutely, you know that the credit quality has been pretty extraordinary, Paul. 215 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 8: You know, the level of delinquencies and residential mortgage backed 216 00:12:51,559 --> 00:12:55,440 Speaker 8: securities is really hovering at historic lows. You haven't seen 217 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 8: a real uptick in delinquencies, just given how robust the 218 00:12:58,120 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 8: labor market is, given our expectation that we will have 219 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 8: a recession later this year, that would naturally cause an 220 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 8: uptick and unemployment. But what we feel really good about 221 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:12,120 Speaker 8: is again back to you know, today's case Shiller numbers, 222 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:14,240 Speaker 8: it's just the stability of home prices. 223 00:13:14,800 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 6: Uh. 224 00:13:15,080 --> 00:13:18,680 Speaker 8: Clearly, you know, not a crash in home prices. We expect, 225 00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:20,280 Speaker 8: you know, a stabilization here. 226 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 7: Uh. 227 00:13:21,040 --> 00:13:24,400 Speaker 8: So an uptick in delinquencies would would create, you know, 228 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 8: an uptick and potential defaults and mortgages in particular. 229 00:13:28,400 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 5: Uh. 230 00:13:28,640 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 8: But given that they're backed by you know, the ultimate house, 231 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 8: the ultimate collateral of the US house, in our expectation 232 00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:38,120 Speaker 8: that those remain uh stable here just given a historically 233 00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:41,599 Speaker 8: tight supply of US housing. Uh, we we think the 234 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 8: credit really holds up quite well amid the recession that 235 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 8: we expect again later this year. 236 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:49,360 Speaker 4: What are you hearing from clients at this point are 237 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:51,520 Speaker 4: what are they concerned about? What are they maybe less 238 00:13:51,559 --> 00:13:53,520 Speaker 4: fearful of after this year's rally. 239 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,839 Speaker 8: Obviously in the equity market, Yeah, absolutely, you know, I 240 00:13:56,920 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 8: think everyone, you know, particularly in tiss income, is despite 241 00:14:00,480 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 8: the historic outflows that you saw in twenty twenty two, 242 00:14:04,240 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 8: you've seen very little inflows, particularly in the active fixed 243 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:10,719 Speaker 8: income in twenty twenty three. You know, in our view 244 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 8: and talking to clients is the vast majority of the world, 245 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 8: whether you know you're in Madrid, or you're in Stockholm, 246 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 8: or you're in Atlanta or New York, the vast majority 247 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 8: of fixed income investors seem to be hiding out on 248 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 8: the front end of the T bill curve and money 249 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:29,680 Speaker 8: market funds, especially amid the recent bank crisis that we've seen. So, 250 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:34,920 Speaker 8: you know, while most investors clearly expect that we may 251 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 8: be near you know, peak policy here that you know, 252 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 8: the undeniable opportunity on the front end is hard to 253 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 8: argue against that in our view. You know, really, as 254 00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 8: I mentioned earlier, would recommend taking advantage of extending out 255 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,800 Speaker 8: the curve and taking advantage of the historically widespreads and 256 00:14:52,080 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 8: mortgage backed securities and particularly longer duration fixed income here 257 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,040 Speaker 8: to lock in these high current fields and widespreads. 258 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: So I'm looking at the Bloomberg US MBS index total 259 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: return value, and the good news is it's up zero 260 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,720 Speaker 1: point sixty three percent. And that's a good news versus 261 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: last year when all the fixing income was really underwater. 262 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: But it lacks some of the other parts of the 263 00:15:14,560 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 1: fixed income space this year. So what's your call an 264 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:20,000 Speaker 1: NBS kind of relative to other places I could put 265 00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: my money in fixed income? 266 00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,360 Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, Paul. You know, NBS is really that the 267 00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 8: big headwind this year, as I mentioned earlier, has just 268 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 8: been this huge surge that we saw and implied interest 269 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 8: rate volatility, you know, given the FED went nineteen times 270 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 8: and as implementing you know, QT and earnest here that 271 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,400 Speaker 8: has caused an uptick in volatility. We thought that we 272 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 8: were really kind of reaching you know peak implied interest 273 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 8: rate volatility amid the guilt crash of PLATE last year. 274 00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 8: But you saw it subsequently surge again in the first quarter, 275 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,560 Speaker 8: you know, amid our kind of owned guilt crash here 276 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:55,280 Speaker 8: in the US. It just came home to roost in 277 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 8: the US banks that that caused all to surge. To 278 00:15:59,280 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 8: you know, near term highs. When volatility serves up, that 279 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 8: puts a lot of pressure on mortgage backed security spreads 280 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 8: as investors that are long mortgages are naturally short short volatility, UH, 281 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 8: given that you know, the option to pre pay from 282 00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 8: the underlying borrowers. And so that's been a headwind uh 283 00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 8: for for mortgages this year is you know, the surge 284 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 8: and volatility and elevated levels of volatility has kept spreads 285 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 8: historically wide. And you've also just seen clearly, you know, 286 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 8: a big retreat of the of the big buyer base, 287 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 8: particularly post COVID is quantitative tightening is let's have fed 288 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,200 Speaker 8: on the sidelines clearly and shrinking the investment portfolio of 289 00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 8: their mortgage backed securities holdings, as well as banks, UH. 290 00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:44,080 Speaker 8: Given the recent crisis and some of the al m 291 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 8: issues that post banks face, they've been you know, have 292 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:51,640 Speaker 8: not been buying nearly as much mortgage backed securities and 293 00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 8: in fact they've been selling. So you've had the headwind 294 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 8: of both volatility as well as the retreat of the 295 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 8: of the buyer base and banks and and and UH 296 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 8: and the owning over sixty percent really putting ahead wind here. 297 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 8: But we see it a huge opportunity in diploma a 298 00:17:06,520 --> 00:17:08,400 Speaker 8: focus for patient investors. 299 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,479 Speaker 1: All right, Sam, thanks so much for joining us. Appreciate 300 00:17:10,560 --> 00:17:13,719 Speaker 1: getting your thoughts there. Sam Dunlop, He's the CIO at 301 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 1: angel Oak Capital Advisors, focusing on the mortgage backed securities market. Again, 302 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:22,400 Speaker 1: some headwinds out there with obviously the rising interest rates. 303 00:17:22,680 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the tape. 304 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,400 Speaker 7: Ken's our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am 305 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:31,160 Speaker 7: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, 306 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,000 Speaker 7: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 307 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,280 Speaker 7: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just 308 00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,000 Speaker 7: say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 309 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: Let's stalk commodities right now, Jess best thoughts. Switch it up. 310 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: Rare earth commodities are rare earth metals, so we can 311 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,000 Speaker 1: do that with our next guest, Doctor Luisa Moreno. She 312 00:17:50,200 --> 00:17:53,560 Speaker 1: is the president of Defense Metals Corporation. Defense Metals is 313 00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: one of the biggest mineral exploration companies in the world 314 00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:00,560 Speaker 1: that focuses on the acquisition of rare earth mental deposits 315 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:04,640 Speaker 1: commonly used in the electric power market, military and national security. 316 00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:07,880 Speaker 1: Doctor Marina, thank you so much. For joining us here. 317 00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 1: Talk to us about rare earth and how important they 318 00:18:12,640 --> 00:18:15,320 Speaker 1: are to a lot of these new technologies, whether it's 319 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,320 Speaker 1: electric vehicles or whatever. Where do we find this stuff? 320 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:22,640 Speaker 1: Is that whole supply chain a big risk for us 321 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 1: going forward? 322 00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 9: Yes, yes it is. Thank you for having me so China. 323 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,879 Speaker 9: That's control, as you said, significant percentage of the mining 324 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:35,960 Speaker 9: as well as the processing and the production of the 325 00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 9: final product. And they go in everything that you can imagine. 326 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:42,719 Speaker 9: So they used infertilizers. They also use I think one 327 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 9: of the most important applications right now is to make magnets, 328 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:53,119 Speaker 9: the strongest known magnets, and they go into permanent magnet 329 00:18:53,200 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 9: motors used in electric vehicles. They also go in these 330 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,280 Speaker 9: magnets they used in mrin machines for thredmaging. They used 331 00:19:01,440 --> 00:19:06,680 Speaker 9: in winterbines. But you also find them in computers and 332 00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 9: the compounds of the earth. You could also use them 333 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 9: in many other medical applications as well as LED lights 334 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 9: and so forth. It's endless applications really. 335 00:19:19,520 --> 00:19:21,920 Speaker 4: So they are continue. 336 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 9: They are critical for defense, so hence the name defense metals. 337 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:30,160 Speaker 9: So they are using missiles and you know, night vision 338 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:33,680 Speaker 9: goggles and many other defense applications and military applications as well. 339 00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:37,440 Speaker 4: What I wanted to know is just how dependent is 340 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 4: the US on China when it comes to these rare 341 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 4: earth elements? 342 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 9: Right, So, China minds sixty percent or so of the 343 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 9: of the total of the total rare earth. The US 344 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:56,560 Speaker 9: currently minds about forty thousand of the estimated say three 345 00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 9: hundred thousand tons, but they line it, they concentrate the 346 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 9: minerals to make it I guess easier to process and 347 00:20:06,520 --> 00:20:10,080 Speaker 9: for transportation and all of that extent to China. So 348 00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 9: highly dependent, that is the answer. So the not just 349 00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 9: the West, the world really highly dependent on on this 350 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 9: on China for for this, for this, for this material. 351 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: We'll give the rising geopolitical tensions between China and the 352 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,800 Speaker 1: West and the US in particular. How at risk is 353 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,000 Speaker 1: the West here is it? Is there an opportunity to 354 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: maybe are there is there an intentive to try to 355 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 1: source these minerals from other parts of the world. 356 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 9: Yes, so we do have some production and refinery out 357 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,360 Speaker 9: of China and production of metals out of China as well, 358 00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 9: but probably not sufficient for for everything. Because even if 359 00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,800 Speaker 9: we are able to say, purchase some of these elements 360 00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 9: from say Malaysia. So there's a Linus corporation. They mine 361 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,719 Speaker 9: in Australia in the process in Malaysia. So even if 362 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 9: you're able to get them, you still you know, as 363 00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:17,480 Speaker 9: far as getting them in electric vehicles is still you 364 00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 9: still need to build a supply chain, and we are 365 00:21:20,520 --> 00:21:24,119 Speaker 9: just in the process of doing that. I my understanding 366 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 9: is that the US government as well as getting in 367 00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 9: government UH and Australian government and you are looking to 368 00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:34,479 Speaker 9: to fund a supply chain for the rears and other 369 00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 9: strategic metals. And there are several companies, chemical companies interested 370 00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 9: in building separation facilities. 371 00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 1: And so forth. 372 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,120 Speaker 9: So the supply chain has to be built, but first 373 00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:49,719 Speaker 9: we need to mine them in a higher higher amount. 374 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 4: Let's say, talk to us about the talent shortage that 375 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 4: the rare earth industry actually faces right now. 376 00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:03,960 Speaker 9: It is it is significant given that China has been 377 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:09,080 Speaker 9: the main country producing earth for a long time and 378 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,000 Speaker 9: refining them and producing and products. You know, we do 379 00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 9: not have that talent outside. You know, in the West, 380 00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 9: there is some in ages I mentioned perhaps Vietnam, in Thailand, 381 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:27,560 Speaker 9: there's some processing, some metal making Japan as well, but 382 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:33,840 Speaker 9: in the West that is not much production downstream, downstream 383 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 9: processing and production of these metals or magnets. So we 384 00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 9: will have to develop that talent and it will take time. 385 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 1: So what is the policy of China about exporting these 386 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:51,119 Speaker 1: rare earth minerals right now? 387 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 9: Right now, it's just an internal policy. So a while ago, 388 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 9: back in two thousand and five, they start putting quarters 389 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 9: and then there was challenges, you know, the the US, 390 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:09,520 Speaker 9: Europe and other countries. They basically filed a complaint in 391 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:13,040 Speaker 9: the World Trade Organization against China, which China lost, and 392 00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:18,120 Speaker 9: then they stopped the quarters. But they have production quarters 393 00:23:18,280 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 9: internally where they tell, you know, companies how much to produce, 394 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:28,600 Speaker 9: and the government have been acquiring percentages of this, of this, 395 00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 9: of this, of these companies and merging them. So they 396 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 9: have internally a very strong control over the production of 397 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,760 Speaker 9: the earth and how much is produced. 398 00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:42,159 Speaker 1: Could they outright just ban the exports, and then the 399 00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,760 Speaker 1: rest of the world's really in a difficult spot. 400 00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:51,040 Speaker 9: If if we upset them seriously, they might It's it's 401 00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 9: it's definitely a possibility, but it has to be something 402 00:23:55,560 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 9: really significant, I think, like war. But otherwise I don't 403 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,760 Speaker 9: think they would do that. They would have a lot 404 00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:09,960 Speaker 9: to lose as well, because they, as I said, they 405 00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:13,159 Speaker 9: produce a lot of the products and products and they 406 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 9: sell them around the world as well, and obviously they 407 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:20,719 Speaker 9: consume them as well for many of the advanced technologies 408 00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:21,399 Speaker 9: that they produce. 409 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,000 Speaker 4: What are you monitoring when it comes to the legislation 410 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 4: in the US. I know last month there was a 411 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 4: bipartisan bill that was introduced to offer basically a tax 412 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 4: credit for establishing rare earth magnet production in the US. 413 00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:37,399 Speaker 4: What are you seeing on this front? 414 00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 9: I think that's really really good. However, in order to 415 00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:47,480 Speaker 9: make magnets, you know, assuming that you know how to 416 00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 9: make them and you have the right team to do that, first, 417 00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,960 Speaker 9: the only issue is where you're going to get your alloys. 418 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 9: And to make alloys you need the metals, and where 419 00:24:57,600 --> 00:24:59,920 Speaker 9: are these metals being made? And to make this metal 420 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 9: you need to mind them and make ox sites first, 421 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:05,960 Speaker 9: So again we have to think about the supply chain. 422 00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 9: In the US, you do mind them, but currently MP 423 00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 9: Materials is not yet processing them into chemical compounds and 424 00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 9: separating them, which is the second stage, and definitely not 425 00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,200 Speaker 9: making metals, and as far as I know, they're not 426 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 9: making alloys either. So all of those steps have to 427 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 9: be concluded before you can make magnets. 428 00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,440 Speaker 1: You know, if I'm in the tech industry, I want 429 00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: to send it, you know, kind of a person over 430 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,639 Speaker 1: there to kind of smooth things out. I send Tim 431 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,160 Speaker 1: Cook from Apple. Who do I send for rare earth minerals? 432 00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 8: Sorry? 433 00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:40,560 Speaker 9: Can you ask that question again? 434 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean, if I'm in the tech industry and I 435 00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,320 Speaker 1: want to send an emissary to China, I send Tim Cook, 436 00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: the CEO of Apple Computer. Is there somebody that rare 437 00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 1: Earth's business that can go over to China and say, hey, 438 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:50,879 Speaker 1: can we be friends? 439 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:53,480 Speaker 8: Oh? Wow? 440 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:59,120 Speaker 9: Yes, I guess the folks from MPY Materials. They multi 441 00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 9: billion dollar market up to one of the largest rarest 442 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,040 Speaker 9: companies in the world. There are not many, right, Well, 443 00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:10,240 Speaker 9: there are many, but mostly in China. Yes, so outside 444 00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:12,240 Speaker 9: China they're not that many. 445 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: There's not that many. 446 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,159 Speaker 5: Can well not not. 447 00:26:15,280 --> 00:26:18,160 Speaker 9: They're not producing there is that part of the problem. 448 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, Doctor Louis and Moreno, thank you so 449 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Uh. Doctor Moreno is a president 450 00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:25,480 Speaker 1: of Defense Metals Corporation. 451 00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:26,280 Speaker 9: Uh. 452 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 1: This is a company that focuses on the rare earth 453 00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,840 Speaker 1: mineral deposits and they're used in electric power vehicles. They're 454 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,800 Speaker 1: used in militarily applications, national security, so a big, big 455 00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 1: issue and unfortunately, uh for many in the West, they're 456 00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 1: dependent upon China for sourcing and supplying those rare earth's minerals. 457 00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: So definitely a challenge for a number of industry so 458 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:52,119 Speaker 1: it's worth keeping on top of that. 459 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 7: You're listening to the Team Cancer Live program Bloomberg Markets 460 00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 461 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 7: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 462 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:05,640 Speaker 7: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 463 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: I want to get right to our c suite conversation today, 464 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: Randall Atkins, CEO of Ramico Resources. Randall, describe it, Ramico Resources. 465 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:17,960 Speaker 1: You guys are in the coal business. Describe what you 466 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:18,960 Speaker 1: do in your company. 467 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:24,359 Speaker 5: Sure, we're actually in the metallurgic coal business, which is 468 00:27:24,520 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 5: used to make steel, distinguished from the thermal coal business, 469 00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,920 Speaker 5: which is used for power. We also recently announced a 470 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:38,120 Speaker 5: very significant discovery of an extremely large rare earth deposit 471 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,280 Speaker 5: at one of our properties in Wyoming, so we soon 472 00:27:41,560 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 5: hope to be also in the critical mineral business. 473 00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:45,919 Speaker 4: Who are you a key supplier to. 474 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,680 Speaker 5: We are a key supplier to both the domestic and 475 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 5: international steel industry. We sell to about twenty countries overseas 476 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 5: and also supply coking coal to virtually all of the 477 00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,000 Speaker 5: North American steel markets. 478 00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:11,159 Speaker 1: So metallurgical coal again, I'm sorry, metallurgical coal used in 479 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 1: steel making. Talk to us about the trends in that business. 480 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: What are you seeing? What have you seen the last 481 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:17,399 Speaker 1: couple years? What's your outlook? 482 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 7: Sure? 483 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 5: So, I have a sort of a one liner which 484 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,160 Speaker 5: I use, which is the met coal is a proxy 485 00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 5: for steel. Steel is a proxy for a nation's GDP. 486 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 7: So as the. 487 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 5: Overall economy moves, so does the steel industry. Obviously, at 488 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:39,240 Speaker 5: the moment, the steel industry, as is the domestic and 489 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,760 Speaker 5: most international economies, suffering from the twin bouts of both 490 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 5: an inflationary situation over the past eighteen months as well 491 00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 5: as the recessionary winds that are blowing at the moment. 492 00:28:53,880 --> 00:29:00,320 Speaker 5: So the steel industry is muted at the moment domestically, Basically, 493 00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,920 Speaker 5: sales and metallogic coal have similarly fallen a softer pattern 494 00:29:05,440 --> 00:29:06,480 Speaker 5: than certainly last year. 495 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,480 Speaker 4: If the steel industry is muted right now, what does 496 00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,520 Speaker 4: that tell us about the direction of the US economy 497 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 4: in particularly. 498 00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 5: Well, the steel industry is always a leading indicator. You know, 499 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,760 Speaker 5: most of the steel used in the US coast for 500 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 5: things such as cars, pipes, construction. You know, if you 501 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,600 Speaker 5: just go down that list, I think cars are frankly 502 00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 5: still having a reasonably strong market, but certainly pipes used 503 00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,880 Speaker 5: in the oil industry and construction are very muted at 504 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 5: this point in time. So I think to that extent, 505 00:29:42,240 --> 00:29:44,200 Speaker 5: met coal is a bit of a leading indicator as 506 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:46,120 Speaker 5: well in that same regard. 507 00:29:46,800 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 1: So are you seeing that in your orders from your 508 00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:51,760 Speaker 1: steel customers that just ordering less coal. 509 00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 5: Well, the steel industry has sort of various seasons to it. 510 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,880 Speaker 5: This is what's called a shoulder season, which really goes 511 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,200 Speaker 5: through the middle part of the summer and then they restock. 512 00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 5: So this is the point in the year when typically 513 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 5: coal demand is a little softer than normal, but it 514 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 5: picks up during the summer and then also increases throughout 515 00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 5: the fall during. 516 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:22,640 Speaker 4: Those softer months. How does that impact your company as 517 00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 4: well as the industry overall. 518 00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:30,800 Speaker 5: Well, it basically we calibrate our production to meet our 519 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:36,000 Speaker 5: demand requirements, so that during the softer periods we were 520 00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 5: producing slightly lower than typically but usually What we also 521 00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 5: do is have a sales book which accounts for that, 522 00:30:44,080 --> 00:30:48,200 Speaker 5: so that we will sell domestically on an annual basis 523 00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,880 Speaker 5: and will sell internationally on a spot basis. So really 524 00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:56,080 Speaker 5: the trigger is the spot sales internationally in softer periods. 525 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:01,280 Speaker 1: So with so many industries going green really thinking about 526 00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:05,080 Speaker 1: their economic footprint, how does that impact your company your business? 527 00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 8: Well, interestingly, we are kind of. 528 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,520 Speaker 5: A forerunner in the coal industry and that for a 529 00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 5: number of years we have been doing research on how 530 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:20,320 Speaker 5: coal can be used and really the carbon within coal 531 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,560 Speaker 5: could be used to make advanced products, carbon products and materials. 532 00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,800 Speaker 5: So our basic business in the metallergic coal business. Of course, 533 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:33,280 Speaker 5: steel is used for things such as windmills, solar farms, 534 00:31:33,360 --> 00:31:36,760 Speaker 5: et cetera. But we've also branched out. As I mentioned, 535 00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 5: we have a rare earth project that we're getting started 536 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:44,600 Speaker 5: in Wyoming. We also have patents on about sixty different 537 00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 5: types of uses of coal for making carbon products from 538 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 5: things such as graphene, graphite, carbon fibers, things of that nature. 539 00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:56,960 Speaker 4: It's interesting that you're bringing up sort of the rare 540 00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 4: earth metals. We actually had a guest on earlier that 541 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,040 Speaker 4: into that I was curious as far as when you 542 00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:06,240 Speaker 4: have maybe potential exposure toward China or other areas in 543 00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,880 Speaker 4: the global economy, how that impacts your business if you 544 00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:10,680 Speaker 4: are seeing economies like that slowing. 545 00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:16,400 Speaker 5: Sure well, certainly China is not only the largest producer 546 00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:21,640 Speaker 5: of metallurgic coal, but also the largest user of metallurgic coal. Typically, 547 00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:24,760 Speaker 5: the United States does not sell a lot of met 548 00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 5: coal into China. That really has done mostly from Australia. 549 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,880 Speaker 5: Having said that, the market pricing that is set in 550 00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 5: the Asian markets between that trade between Australia and China 551 00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 5: certainly has a major impact on what pricing is around 552 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,600 Speaker 5: the world. So to the extent that that pricing has 553 00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 5: been lower this year, that certainly is translated into the 554 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 5: Atlantic metearolurgic coal markets, which is what we sell into. 555 00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:57,440 Speaker 1: So render, how do you grow your business? Is it 556 00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,840 Speaker 1: taking share away from competitors in terms of supplying coal 557 00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: to the steel industry. Is it new lines of business? 558 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:07,000 Speaker 1: Is it new markets? How do you grow your business 559 00:33:07,200 --> 00:33:07,720 Speaker 1: going forward? 560 00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 5: Well, it's a little bit of all of the above. Certainly, 561 00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,600 Speaker 5: all coals are not created equal, and so you know 562 00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,600 Speaker 5: the type of metallurgic coal we produce has certain quality 563 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 5: and qualitative advantages to certain customers. So we find our 564 00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,480 Speaker 5: niches there. But we grow our business really in a 565 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:31,200 Speaker 5: couple of ways. One, of course, we are really the 566 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 5: only domestic coal company which is dramatically increasing its production. 567 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 5: We plan to basically double in size over the next 568 00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,640 Speaker 5: three to four years. And we're also the only one 569 00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:48,000 Speaker 5: that is branching out into new uses of carbon, as 570 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,160 Speaker 5: I mentioned earlier, for such things as critical minerals as 571 00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:52,440 Speaker 5: well as carbon products. 572 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 1: Just real quickly, Randall, where do you source your coal? 573 00:33:55,800 --> 00:34:00,520 Speaker 5: Typically where your minds our minds are in the sort 574 00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 5: of southern Appalachian area down around southern West Virginia and Virginia. 575 00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:08,040 Speaker 5: Uh And as I mentioned, we also have a rarest 576 00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,600 Speaker 5: play that is out in Wyoming in sort of the 577 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:11,640 Speaker 5: Powder River basin. 578 00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, really interesting business, Randall Atkins, thank you 579 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,360 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Random actins. It's a CEO 580 00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:22,440 Speaker 1: Ramaco Resources, It's a Nasdaq traded stock n e TC 581 00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,600 Speaker 1: met Coal is when I take away from that, he's 582 00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,600 Speaker 1: had a long career and of course I think the 583 00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 1: highlight of his career is he got his undergraduate degree 584 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:33,800 Speaker 1: from Duke University. You know, so set up for some 585 00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:36,320 Speaker 1: good stuff there. But you know, you think about that, 586 00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,239 Speaker 1: the coal business. It's just where's the future of coal? Well, 587 00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:42,640 Speaker 1: I guess, you know, for for power, not so much, uh, 588 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:45,919 Speaker 1: but for perhaps the metallurgrical coal used in steel. Maybe 589 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 1: still you know, some good growth there. 590 00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:50,480 Speaker 4: And these rare earth minerals that keep coming up in 591 00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:51,680 Speaker 4: our conversations, Pap. 592 00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:54,439 Speaker 1: They keep coming up in their conversation. Uh so we'll see, 593 00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,239 Speaker 1: but it's an interest conversation. You don't talk coal very often, 594 00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,759 Speaker 1: but we do. This is Bloomberg. You're listening to the tape. 595 00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:04,239 Speaker 7: Can's our live program Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am 596 00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,000 Speaker 7: Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, 597 00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:10,879 Speaker 7: and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live 598 00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,120 Speaker 7: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just 599 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,840 Speaker 7: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 600 00:35:18,560 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 1: Jess met Paul Sweeney here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio. 601 00:35:21,520 --> 00:35:24,320 Speaker 1: I want to get right to our next guest entrant conversation. 602 00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:27,960 Speaker 1: I believe doctor Maureen Dunn, president and CEO of Autism 603 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,520 Speaker 1: Community Ventures, joins us. Doctor Doun, thanks so much for 604 00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:34,520 Speaker 1: taking the time to join us. Could you just educate 605 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 1: us what you are doing at Autism Community Ventures. 606 00:35:38,600 --> 00:35:41,320 Speaker 10: Yeah, Hi, thank you so much for having me. Yeah so, 607 00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:46,759 Speaker 10: I've I've spent most of my career trying to help 608 00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:52,440 Speaker 10: neurodivergent job seeker achieve opportunities that are consistent with their 609 00:35:52,480 --> 00:35:55,480 Speaker 10: still levels. And I've done that in a number of 610 00:35:55,520 --> 00:36:00,359 Speaker 10: different ways than looking forward to our conversation, how. 611 00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,200 Speaker 4: Many US adults are diagnosed with autism? 612 00:36:06,680 --> 00:36:09,080 Speaker 10: Yeah so, I first of all, I say, I do 613 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:15,160 Speaker 10: a lot of work in neudiversity more generally, so you know, 614 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:19,200 Speaker 10: the nerve in which encompasses, you know, beyond autism, ADHD, 615 00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,680 Speaker 10: dyslexia descracts and in a few So in the US 616 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,600 Speaker 10: there's over sixty million people that fall under that umbrella. 617 00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:28,759 Speaker 10: So fifteen to twenty percent of the global population falls 618 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,040 Speaker 10: under the nerd division umbrella. But with autism in particular, 619 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:38,399 Speaker 10: it's according to the statistics by the CDC that it's 620 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 10: been increasing dramatically, especially over the last ten years, and 621 00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 10: just recently there's you know, been another communication from the 622 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 10: CBC that it's it's also increased. I think it's about 623 00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:56,640 Speaker 10: one in thirty five people. 624 00:36:56,760 --> 00:37:01,239 Speaker 1: Now, So what I mean we of autism give us 625 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:06,560 Speaker 1: other I guess neurodiversification issues or challenges that are common 626 00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:09,760 Speaker 1: out there in the community that may be a challenge 627 00:37:09,840 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 1: for employers to try to get their heads around. 628 00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:17,600 Speaker 10: Sure, yeah so, and just for context, nerve diversification, it's 629 00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,800 Speaker 10: the concept I've brought up in a number of my 630 00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:24,759 Speaker 10: prior keynotes, and so the how to think about that, 631 00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:29,400 Speaker 10: I mean, obviously your versification is an important concept right 632 00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,279 Speaker 10: for portfolio management, for investment, and so the idea there 633 00:37:33,440 --> 00:37:35,560 Speaker 10: is that you know when when, and a lot of 634 00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:38,560 Speaker 10: research supports this is then when all minds in a 635 00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,680 Speaker 10: group are highly correlated in terms of their experiences, in 636 00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,000 Speaker 10: terms of their cognitive tendencies, analytical skills, perceptual skills, that 637 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:48,399 Speaker 10: the potential for overlapping cognitive and conceptual blind stops became 638 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,600 Speaker 10: a real risk. And so the idea of nerd of 639 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:54,520 Speaker 10: diversification is ahead against that risk. And I personally think that, 640 00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:58,680 Speaker 10: especially the looking at the labor shortage that we have 641 00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:01,840 Speaker 10: and you know, the future work in terms of innovation 642 00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:07,000 Speaker 10: and creativity being paramount, that employers should be really interested 643 00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:11,920 Speaker 10: in including more neurodivision workers. In terms of challenges, there 644 00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,759 Speaker 10: was a UK study back in twenty twenty from the 645 00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,400 Speaker 10: Institute of Leadership and Management that showed over fifty percent 646 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,080 Speaker 10: of employers openly admitted that they would not hire a 647 00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:26,200 Speaker 10: nerdiversion job seekers. So there's a lot of challenges that 648 00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:30,200 Speaker 10: unfortunately have nothing to do with the ability or skill 649 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:34,520 Speaker 10: of a nerdiversent person to do the work if given 650 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 10: the opportunity, But it has a lot to do with 651 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,400 Speaker 10: some un built biases the ways in which the interview 652 00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,440 Speaker 10: processes work that could disadvantage the neurodiversion workers. There's a 653 00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:50,200 Speaker 10: lot of issues that can become obstacles to successful employment. 654 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:54,240 Speaker 4: What do companies need to do to truly make things 655 00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 4: more inclusive for neurodivergent people. 656 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,160 Speaker 10: The work that I do, there's you know, I think 657 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:08,160 Speaker 10: it's important to go beyond the sort of more superficial 658 00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:12,600 Speaker 10: training of Okay, let's tick the boxes here. We have 659 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:15,920 Speaker 10: you know, X number of neurodiversion people that that we've hired. 660 00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:20,719 Speaker 10: It's important to really work on organizational culture in a 661 00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:22,800 Speaker 10: deeper way. And so some of the things that I 662 00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:26,160 Speaker 10: do is, you know, we uh, we organize in university 663 00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:33,400 Speaker 10: friendly company audits, just getting the whole organization to see 664 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:38,759 Speaker 10: the value of different kinds of minds working together, you 665 00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:40,960 Speaker 10: know that sort of you know, going beyond You could 666 00:39:41,000 --> 00:39:44,120 Speaker 10: start with a value statement, but then you know, going 667 00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:46,359 Speaker 10: beyond that, right, so that getting everyone on the same 668 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,480 Speaker 10: page where okay, we really value different kinds of minds 669 00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:51,759 Speaker 10: coming to the table and we see why this is 670 00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,440 Speaker 10: so important for our organization, and then going beyond that 671 00:39:55,680 --> 00:40:00,560 Speaker 10: so that the actual practices on a daily basis support 672 00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:01,360 Speaker 10: that value. 673 00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,080 Speaker 4: What companies or industries stand out to you at this 674 00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,080 Speaker 4: point that are doing it right so far? 675 00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, it's an interesting question. So there has been a 676 00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:14,759 Speaker 10: lot of activity, especially like autism at work programs. I know, 677 00:40:16,400 --> 00:40:19,520 Speaker 10: JP Morgan has one where they've done some research and 678 00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,440 Speaker 10: they showed that their autistic employees were actually forty eight 679 00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,200 Speaker 10: percent faster ninety two percent more productive than their nerds 680 00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:29,200 Speaker 10: are typical peers that were hired for the same jobs. 681 00:40:29,600 --> 00:40:32,240 Speaker 10: But I'd also say that in my work I've found, 682 00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,480 Speaker 10: you know, I have so many stories and I'm actually 683 00:40:36,960 --> 00:40:40,680 Speaker 10: working on a book that's been released by Wiley early 684 00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:44,840 Speaker 10: early next year where I have did you know, did 685 00:40:44,880 --> 00:40:48,080 Speaker 10: a lot of interviews with people around the world, and 686 00:40:48,880 --> 00:40:50,560 Speaker 10: one of the things that's come out a lot is 687 00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:55,480 Speaker 10: that there's a lot of innovators and entrepreneurs even that 688 00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,920 Speaker 10: are NERD diversions, but there's a there's a percentage of 689 00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 10: them that would have preferred to have a job and 690 00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,960 Speaker 10: have applied you know, two hundreds, sometimes thousands of jobs, 691 00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,680 Speaker 10: but couldn't get through that interview process, even though a 692 00:41:09,760 --> 00:41:12,720 Speaker 10: lot of them have PhDs and you know, are really 693 00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:18,200 Speaker 10: distinguished people and then ended up being successful entrepreneurs. So 694 00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:23,319 Speaker 10: there's it's it's an interesting dynamic where I think there's 695 00:41:24,280 --> 00:41:26,799 Speaker 10: there's a lot of movement, there's a lot more awareness 696 00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,520 Speaker 10: of the skills and the talents that nerdivision people bring 697 00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:33,279 Speaker 10: to the table, but I think there is more that 698 00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:37,560 Speaker 10: can be done for companies to really understand how to 699 00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:41,200 Speaker 10: best include them and retain that talent that could be 700 00:41:41,280 --> 00:41:44,920 Speaker 10: really important, you know, also to the to that company's future. 701 00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,520 Speaker 10: Thinking about again going back to like all this research 702 00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:52,279 Speaker 10: about nerdivision people being a hedge against group think, right, 703 00:41:52,360 --> 00:41:55,279 Speaker 10: we know that so many of the business failures end 704 00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,880 Speaker 10: up being because there was no one at the table 705 00:41:57,960 --> 00:42:01,600 Speaker 10: there that saw the risks or or you know, frankly 706 00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:05,480 Speaker 10: was willing to take riskler social status to bring up 707 00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,879 Speaker 10: the risks that they saw and that's you know, that's 708 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,520 Speaker 10: could be really important. I think I think there's this 709 00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:15,319 Speaker 10: definitely something that employers should be taking seriously going forward. 710 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:17,920 Speaker 1: All right, Doctor Maureen Dunn, thank you so much for 711 00:42:18,040 --> 00:42:20,880 Speaker 1: joining us doctor Maureen Dunn as a president and CEO 712 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,840 Speaker 1: of Autism Community Ventures. We appreciate getting a few minutes 713 00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:25,640 Speaker 1: of her time here. 714 00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:28,880 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can 715 00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,680 Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever 716 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,440 Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 717 00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,600 Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. 718 00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,480 Speaker 1: And I'm fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. 719 00:42:41,600 --> 00:42:44,239 Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at 720 00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:45,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.