1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 1: Cool the media. Hello everyone, welcome to it could happen here. 2 00:00:08,360 --> 00:00:09,399 Speaker 1: My name is Dana L. 3 00:00:09,520 --> 00:00:09,799 Speaker 2: Kurd. 4 00:00:09,920 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: I'm a researcher of Arab and Palestinian politics, and today 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 1: I'm joined by Iliya Ayub. Would like to introduce yourself. 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,119 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, hi Danna, thank you for having me. My 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,680 Speaker 3: name is Idiah. I'm motioning from Lebanon. My background is 8 00:00:23,720 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 3: in both history and journalism, and I often write about 9 00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:30,960 Speaker 3: the region more subbout Palestinian and I also write a 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 3: lot about Isad in Palestine, and obviously in the past 11 00:00:34,120 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 3: few years, I've been covering and also worrying a lot 12 00:00:38,000 --> 00:00:38,920 Speaker 3: about what's been happening. 13 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much for joining us, especially at 14 00:00:41,840 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: such a difficult time for the listeners. We are recording 15 00:00:44,880 --> 00:00:49,199 Speaker 2: March twenty second, twenty twenty six, and Israel's attack on 16 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: Lebanon is ongoing. So we're really grateful to Ilia for 17 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 2: joining us and talking to us about what this means 18 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 2: and what we're seeing on the ground. Yeah, so maybe 19 00:00:58,480 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 2: I'll start there. Can you lay out for the listener 20 00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:03,760 Speaker 2: what is happening in Lebanon right now? 21 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,160 Speaker 4: So what's been happening in Lebanon? Is that already connected? 22 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 3: To the US Israeli war on Iran, which started what 23 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 3: about twenty two twenty three days ago something like that. 24 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 3: That was in itself in the context of negotiations between 25 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 3: the Americans and the Ionians in Switzerland mediated by Arman, 26 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:24,240 Speaker 3: and just moments later, really that same night, the bombing 27 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 3: of Iran started in Lebanon, or rather the way Lebanon 28 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:32,080 Speaker 3: enters this story is a couple of days after the 29 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 3: assassination of Raminida told of Iran has bought a launched 30 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 3: the pockets towards Israel, and this was used by the 31 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 3: Israelis as effectively them saying that we will only held 32 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 3: on Lebanon. 33 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:44,760 Speaker 4: And that's often how it's been reported. 34 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 3: What is often missed even in that context I mean, 35 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 3: is that there was a so called ceasefire between Israel 36 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 3: and Lebanon, and hasball obviously for thirteen months before that. 37 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 3: But that so called ceasefire, the reason I'm saying so 38 00:01:59,120 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 3: called seasfire had already been violated by the Israelis. And 39 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,960 Speaker 3: this is the figures that come from the uniform the unpeace 40 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 3: keeping forces in Lebanon over fifteen thousand times, whereas they themselves, 41 00:02:09,720 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 3: in fact, even the BBC today. I saw an article 42 00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 3: today I acknowledged that Hazbola had not violated the seasefire, 43 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 3: which you know is just I guess that is also 44 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 3: where the where the mood is add in terms of 45 00:02:19,840 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 3: the coverage since then, like in the past three weeks, 46 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 3: the hell and this term was used by Israeli officials themselves, 47 00:02:27,720 --> 00:02:31,119 Speaker 3: that has been unleased on Lebanon has been unprecedented, and 48 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:35,240 Speaker 3: even even by Israeli wars on Lebanon standards, which is 49 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:38,440 Speaker 3: saying a lot. As of time of recording, at least 50 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:42,200 Speaker 3: twenty percent of the entirety of Lebanon has already been displaced, 51 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:44,799 Speaker 3: and for the most part, these are people that had 52 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 3: already experienced this placement at least once in twenty twenty 53 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:52,519 Speaker 3: four when this war started, if not older patterns of 54 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:55,680 Speaker 3: displacements going back to the Civil War and the It'saelio 55 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,880 Speaker 3: occupation of South Lebanon in the eighties and nineties and 56 00:02:57,919 --> 00:03:03,640 Speaker 3: so on. And unclear where this is headed because just 57 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 3: hours before we even started recording, they escalated their bombings 58 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 3: of bridges connecting South Lebanon to the Guest of Lebanon, 59 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 3: which is over the Litani River, which is one of 60 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 3: the rivers in the south as part of the attempt 61 00:03:15,200 --> 00:03:17,959 Speaker 3: to cut off the entire region of Lebanon, of South 62 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 3: Lebanons from the cost of the country. And yeah, we 63 00:03:20,400 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 3: can get into more of the details and the impact 64 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 3: that this is having on Lebanon itself, of course, because 65 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 3: this tends to be unfortunately like not covered this much. 66 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so to kind of summarize, because they 67 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 2: decided to launch a war against Iran, and obviously there's 68 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 2: so much to say about that, we're not going to 69 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 2: be able to address every aspect. 70 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:41,800 Speaker 1: Of this conflict. 71 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: But because of that, and after particularly the assassination of 72 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 2: the Ayatola, Hasbela launch rockets and then the Israelis, who 73 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,880 Speaker 2: had already been breaking the ceasefire between them and Hesbola 74 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 2: that had emerged over the past year, decided to kind 75 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 2: of ramp up their attacks. And when we say ramp 76 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 2: up their attacks, you've mentioned like the destruction of infrastructure, 77 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:05,920 Speaker 2: cutting off the south, basically clearing villages, et cetera. The 78 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 2: Israeli officials, including Natania, who have said they want to 79 00:04:10,160 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 2: impose what they called the Gaza. 80 00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:17,359 Speaker 1: Model on Lebanon. So what can we understand from from 81 00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 1: this kind of comment. 82 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, thank you. 83 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 3: It's important to note that such comments are not new 84 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,800 Speaker 3: at all, and they have also been uttered in times 85 00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 3: of quote unquote peace. So when there isn't any kind 86 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 3: of active conflict. In my own article of ninety seven 87 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,760 Speaker 3: two which I wrote about it, don't know two weeks ago, 88 00:04:34,839 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 3: so I quote a number of those politicians, and I'll 89 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 3: just mention a few of them. Here you have Galant, 90 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:42,919 Speaker 3: who has of course since been and still has in 91 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 3: a gust warrant by the International Comment Court. He's threatened 92 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,640 Speaker 3: to send Leblon back to the Stone Agent. This was 93 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 3: in November twenty twenty four. The Diaspora Affairs Minister Amishai 94 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 3: quickly declared in September twenty twenty four that Lebanon quote 95 00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:59,000 Speaker 3: does not mean the definition of a state, and he 96 00:04:59,080 --> 00:05:02,039 Speaker 3: described all of the sheare population of Lebanon es quote 97 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 3: unquote hostile, which is genocide the language by definition, and. 98 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,600 Speaker 4: Even about what two three weeks ago. 99 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 3: So smart Hitch, who was one of kind of the 100 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:15,839 Speaker 3: main for great politicians in Israel today said that very soon, 101 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 3: as I'm quoting, very soon, Dahi will resemble herne newness, 102 00:05:18,960 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 3: Dahi being the southern suburb of Bayhood, where a lot 103 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 3: there's a lot of support for has Bola and has 104 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: always been talked about by the Israelis as like one 105 00:05:27,000 --> 00:05:31,160 Speaker 3: of the quote Bolla's songholds. In fact, they pioneered, you 106 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: might say, the Dahi doctrine in two thousand and six, 107 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:35,560 Speaker 3: so named after Dahi, and there was a war in 108 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:36,400 Speaker 3: two thousand and six as well. 109 00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 4: But Venezuela has butla. 110 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:43,680 Speaker 3: Which is quite explicitly a policy of bombing civilian infrastructure 111 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:46,359 Speaker 3: in order to put pressure on the enemy in this 112 00:05:46,400 --> 00:05:49,440 Speaker 3: case as Butler, which is basically in acknowledgment that they 113 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:53,240 Speaker 3: virate international law as state policy. And on March eleven, 114 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,679 Speaker 3: a member of the pigness it for the same party 115 00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 3: of smoothly as smart Hitch said, and I'm quoting, we 116 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 3: must conquer territory in southern Lebanon, destroy villages there, and 117 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: annex the territory to the state of Israel. 118 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 4: End quote. There's another one. 119 00:06:06,440 --> 00:06:08,839 Speaker 3: Gad Eisencote, who was the former chief of staff of 120 00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:12,520 Speaker 3: the Israelia Media IDEAF said around the same time, I 121 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:14,400 Speaker 3: think it was a couple of weeks ago. Quote the 122 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,200 Speaker 3: dog Hit doctin has never been more relevant than right now. 123 00:06:17,240 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 3: And it must be implemented and quote dire doctrine being 124 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:22,560 Speaker 3: the one that I just mentioned. And this is they 125 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 3: said not new, whether in the context of talking about 126 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 3: Palestinians in Raza long before the ongoing genocide, whether in 127 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 3: the context of talking about the Lebanese and so on, 128 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 3: there has been this stain of open utterances of genocidal 129 00:06:37,080 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 3: claiming on behalf of like Israeli politicians and military leaders. 130 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,800 Speaker 3: One needs to notice to understand why they act in 131 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 3: certain ways in Lebanon. If it was just about like 132 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 3: you know, targeting their enemies or whatever, that would be 133 00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 3: like one one way of doing warfare. But it willn't 134 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 3: explain like detonating entire villages as they've been doing during 135 00:06:55,640 --> 00:07:00,200 Speaker 3: the so called ceasefire. It wouldn't explain splaining herbicide, which 136 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,479 Speaker 3: they did about a month ago over like large parts 137 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,679 Speaker 3: of South Lebanon, including parts of Syria for that matter, 138 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 3: which killed cops and so on. It would explain them 139 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 3: not allowing farmers to harvest their cops. 140 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:10,960 Speaker 4: You know, it would explain all of these things. 141 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:13,640 Speaker 3: What would explain all of these things is if you 142 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 3: take into account what they say the intentions are in 143 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 3: Lebanon or the valley is what they want it to 144 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:20,480 Speaker 3: happen in Lebanon, if that makes sense. 145 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it really seems like the Israeli policy, especially now 146 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 2: that there's been really no accountability for what happened in Gaza, 147 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 2: it's like basically to pursue maximum violence, including against civilians, 148 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: and create I think kind of like a no man's 149 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:41,480 Speaker 2: land buffer zone around Israel. Now, there are some elements 150 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 2: in Israeli society that are like religious Zionists, like Messianic 151 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,880 Speaker 2: types who want to settle and like expand. But aside 152 00:07:50,880 --> 00:07:54,559 Speaker 2: from those those people, like I think even we would 153 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 2: call like centrists in Israel, or like the liberals in Israel, 154 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 2: are like, okay, well, yeah, we do need we do 155 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 2: need a buffer, so. 156 00:08:00,880 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: We need a flatten Gaza, we need a flatten southern Lebanon. 157 00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 2: And what this translates to, I mean in Lebanon in 158 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 2: particular is I think you know, some estimates say over 159 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 2: a thousand have been killed in just the past like 160 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 2: two and a half weeks. 161 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, and then millions displaced. 162 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 4: Right, yeah, twenty percent of the country. 163 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 3: Lebanon is one of the smallest countries in the world, 164 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:25,280 Speaker 3: and South Lebanon is one of the only regions in 165 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 3: the country that you might call like a bread basket 166 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 3: in terms of agriculture. So yeah, twenty percent of the 167 00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:31,880 Speaker 3: population has already been this place, and those are those 168 00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 3: that could be registered. 169 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 4: You can imagine numb as being higher than that. 170 00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 3: And as I said, like a lot of those people 171 00:08:37,400 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 3: have already been displaced a number of times before, even 172 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,079 Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four when there was like kind of 173 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 3: the initial escalation, but many of them even going back 174 00:08:45,200 --> 00:08:46,640 Speaker 3: to two thousand and six when there was the war, 175 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,920 Speaker 3: and in some cases even further back in the eighties 176 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 3: and nineties when these eighties occupied southern Lebanon. And I 177 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 3: guess this is really important to note because obviously what's 178 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 3: happening today is connected to the war on Iran. 179 00:08:58,000 --> 00:08:59,400 Speaker 4: Of course it's directly connected. 180 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:02,440 Speaker 3: But if one only knows this, I think we missed 181 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 3: what I would describe as a bit of an Israeli 182 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 3: obsession with Lebanon specifically for a long time. 183 00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 4: There's like historical roots to all of this. 184 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 3: It even goes back to the Israelis like having ties 185 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:16,680 Speaker 3: with like the local Christian far right in the sixties, 186 00:09:16,800 --> 00:09:18,719 Speaker 3: especially as the seventies and eighties. 187 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: Like during the civil war, during the. 188 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:22,560 Speaker 3: Civil war in Lebanon, and a bit of this almost 189 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 3: I mean ideological thing of like will we will focus 190 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 3: on the non Muslims and hope that they're on our side, 191 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,360 Speaker 3: that sort of thing, which is a policy that these 192 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 3: Raelies have done within is A Palestine and in Syria. 193 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,199 Speaker 3: You know, this is an ongoing thing as well, and 194 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 3: so on and so forth. I really want to emphasize 195 00:09:38,760 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 3: this because I have had the experience when I hit 196 00:09:40,760 --> 00:09:42,079 Speaker 3: a lot of the coverage and you know, listen to 197 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,680 Speaker 3: podcasts what have you, that even among people who don't 198 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 3: support the State of Israel, who are very critical of it, 199 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:52,280 Speaker 3: there tends to be understandably because Lebanon is less powerful 200 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 3: than Ions, you know, not as influential on a. 201 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 4: Global scene or whatnot. 202 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,400 Speaker 3: But there's usually a tendency to link what happens in 203 00:09:59,440 --> 00:10:01,600 Speaker 3: Lebanon there to what's happening in Yon. And this has 204 00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 3: been two in the past few weeks. And as I said, says, 205 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:07,200 Speaker 3: of course, partly the cases it's not like completely un elevant. 206 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 3: Has Bala did even stated that the reason why they 207 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 3: launched those vockets was to avenge the assassination of dieto loss. 208 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 4: Of course, it's they're. 209 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:16,200 Speaker 3: Activiated, but there's all of this, like why they're in 210 00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 3: all the context that can help at the bare least 211 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:22,280 Speaker 3: explain why the Asaetias are doing that in Lebanon and 212 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 3: also help extending what's happening to Lebanon itself, which tends 213 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:26,120 Speaker 3: to be not not as focused on. 214 00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:29,560 Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, let's discuss for a moment where Lebanon 215 00:10:29,760 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 2: was before these latest attacks, before the ceasefire, before October seventh. 216 00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,760 Speaker 2: For the Lebanese people, it has been increasingly unlivable. There's 217 00:10:39,800 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 2: been a financial crisis and economic crisis. Lebanon has hosted 218 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: huge amounts of refugees from Syria from Palestine. Continues to 219 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:53,440 Speaker 2: these conditions now where effectively like what like half of 220 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:57,079 Speaker 2: the country is like inaccessible or some large portion of 221 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,959 Speaker 2: the country is inaccessible. The capital city has being bombed, 222 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 2: residential buildings, like there's there's nothing kind of off limits. 223 00:11:04,960 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 2: What is the situation now for for regular people who 224 00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,880 Speaker 2: first and foremost have not had any kind of like 225 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 2: sense of accountability from their own government and have had 226 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 2: also his Babla sort of you know, acting unilaterally in 227 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 2: some ways. Obviously, this does not excuse Israeli actions in 228 00:11:23,280 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 2: any way. But what's the kind of like sense of 229 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:27,920 Speaker 2: emotion right now among Lebanese people. 230 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 4: I mean, despair is I guess one word to describe it. 231 00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 4: There's there's definitely a sense of helplessness. 232 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 3: His Bubble is not a popular party in the country 233 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,920 Speaker 3: in terms of like the percentage of the population there 234 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: is in actions, whether this one or like after October seventh, 235 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 3: the decision to join the war was unpopular. 236 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 4: Instead it's unpopular. 237 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 3: There's something that the Israelis are trying to capitalize on, obviously, 238 00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,280 Speaker 3: either because they want to just destroy the parts to you, 239 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 3: because as part of doing that they also want to 240 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 3: destabilize all of Lebanon, sort of that both of those 241 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,360 Speaker 3: things are happening at the same time. The current government 242 00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,120 Speaker 3: in Leblon is led by the guy who was the 243 00:12:03,120 --> 00:12:05,079 Speaker 3: head of the ICJA when South Africa had started this 244 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 3: case of accusing is that of genocide like a year 245 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 3: or so ago, So he's by the only naive of 246 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:13,559 Speaker 3: what Israeli intentions are. But I think what's really important 247 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 3: to understand of what's kind of the mood of the 248 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 3: country is the sense that no matter what we decide 249 00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 3: as a nation. 250 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:23,520 Speaker 4: It's completely out of our hands. 251 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 3: And this goes beyond even questions related to has Buddler 252 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,400 Speaker 3: and has Bulah's actions, because, as I said, even when 253 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,320 Speaker 3: Hesbola does not launch cockets or whatnot, Israeli Is continue 254 00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 3: to vide it as far as anyway they in coach Land, anyway, 255 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,839 Speaker 3: they dynamite entire villages, anyway, they've prayed those herbicide and 256 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 3: so on and so on anyway, And it's one of 257 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 3: those things that it's also important to know this to 258 00:12:45,440 --> 00:12:48,199 Speaker 3: understand why there are people, for example, in South Lebanon that, 259 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 3: regardless of their personal feelings towards his bud Law, don't 260 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 3: see any alternatives because in fact there are none. Something 261 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 3: that I know isn't talked about as much and certainly 262 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 3: not covered as much, is the fact that the armed 263 00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:03,120 Speaker 3: force that is supposed to be the alternative to Hasbola. 264 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:05,520 Speaker 3: The thing that we hear about all the time that 265 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 3: the Americans, what they want is for Hasbola to be 266 00:13:07,880 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 3: disarmed and for the Lebanese army to take over, and 267 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:12,599 Speaker 3: so on and so forth, and this is basically the 268 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,319 Speaker 3: stated goal of the entire world. In a sense, what 269 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 3: is a good chunk of it, and in fact it's 270 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,160 Speaker 3: officially the stated policy of the Liberes state itself. That 271 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 3: is their intention as far as like their public declarations 272 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:24,800 Speaker 3: and so on, and they have made certain moves to 273 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:25,680 Speaker 3: that end as well. 274 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 4: But the Libanese army. 275 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,400 Speaker 3: Is the army of a very poor country that has 276 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:32,000 Speaker 3: been in economic crisis for a long time. When we 277 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: had wildfires in twenty nineteen, there wasn't even enough like 278 00:13:35,520 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 3: equipment to tackle them, and like foreign government had to 279 00:13:38,760 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 3: donate helicopters and stuff like that. And that Liberanese army 280 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 3: is also heavily subsidized, if you want to say, like 281 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:48,319 Speaker 3: funded in any case by the United States itself, the 282 00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 3: same United States that obviously heavily funds and arms the Israelis. 283 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 3: Of course, the weapons that the Lebanese get is nothing 284 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 3: compared to the weapons that the Israelies get. There's no 285 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 3: such thing as an iron dome in Lebanon. None of 286 00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:03,319 Speaker 3: these things are available to the Lebanese. And so effectively, 287 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:06,599 Speaker 3: what is being asked of Lebanon itself, and especially of 288 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 3: South Lebanon, of the Ahia and East Lebanon, ultimately of 289 00:14:09,600 --> 00:14:13,760 Speaker 3: all of Lebanon, is that just accept your fate just 290 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 3: accept that there's nothing you can do about the Israel 291 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:18,319 Speaker 3: least there's nothing you can do about their actions in 292 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 3: Lebanon proper. I'm not even talking about any actions like 293 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:23,600 Speaker 3: rockets towards it, and I'm talking to their actions in 294 00:14:24,040 --> 00:14:28,320 Speaker 3: Lebanon itself. And they're also asking Haswella, for example, to disarm, 295 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 3: which in itself I am not opposed to, but in 296 00:14:31,720 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: the context of what has been happening, in the context 297 00:14:34,040 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 3: of what's happening now, I think it's ludicrous to imagine 298 00:14:37,160 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 3: that people in the context like in South Lebanon, who 299 00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:44,280 Speaker 3: have decades now long experience of seeing Israeli occupation, of 300 00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 3: seeing Israeli troops on their lands, no matter like multiple 301 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 3: different you know, different prime ministers in Israel taking the 302 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:53,280 Speaker 3: charge and whatnot, but that continuing to be this kind 303 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,720 Speaker 3: of almost eternal fact. In a sense at least, that's 304 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 3: how that's how it feels they're being asked to just 305 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:02,600 Speaker 3: disarm and hope for the best. That's really like effectively 306 00:15:02,640 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 3: the policy towards Lebanon at the moment. Like I saw 307 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 3: an interview with one of the French ministers a few 308 00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 3: few days ago, and she was asked like why aren't 309 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,280 Speaker 3: we doing more to help Lebanon by someone in the 310 00:15:13,320 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 3: audience or whatever, and she said that, like we're sending 311 00:15:15,480 --> 00:15:19,520 Speaker 3: humanitarian aid, and we have UNIFIL forces in southern Lebanon 312 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 3: and so on. UNIFIL forces, those un peace keeping forces, 313 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 3: as I said, don't have a legal right to even 314 00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 3: retaliate against the Israels, including when Israel bombs them, which 315 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:30,840 Speaker 3: it has done at least twice in the past few weeks. 316 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 3: The Lebanese army really engages with Israelis, they don't even 317 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:37,000 Speaker 3: have the means in the first place, and so what 318 00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,520 Speaker 3: do people expected to do? And this is sort of 319 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,360 Speaker 3: the context in which everything else almost doesn't matter, like 320 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:45,400 Speaker 3: in terms of whether you personally like the Hasibodla, I 321 00:15:45,560 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 3: certainly don't, and whatever, like ones personal feelings or even 322 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 3: politics is towards a political party because they're also members 323 00:15:53,280 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: of the Lebanese Parliament, towards the state itself, whatever it 324 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 3: is that it really feels that ultimately it's like our 325 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:02,560 Speaker 3: of our hands. And this is like a component of 326 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 3: this entire thing that I really see, to be honest 327 00:16:05,680 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 3: discussed as though like there are like two sides to 328 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:10,160 Speaker 3: the story, or like two equal armed actors for that 329 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 3: even none on like equal states for that matter, and it's. 330 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 4: Just not the case. 331 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you so much for laying that out like that. 332 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 2: I think that you're right that it's not well acknowledged, 333 00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 2: how disempowered. The international community basically expects people in the region, 334 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 2: including the Lebanese, to behave and like accept the fact 335 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,960 Speaker 2: that they are collateral damage in Israel's, you know, perpetual 336 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:32,080 Speaker 2: desire for domination. 337 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 1: American political scientist. 338 00:16:44,400 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 2: Nathan Brown just published this article called Israel's Forever Wars 339 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 2: for the Carnegie Domat. His argument is that there's been 340 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 2: a shift in the Israeli policy where he says it 341 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 2: used to be the terrents domination and diplomacy have long 342 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 2: blended in Israeli statecraft, and today he's says they've been 343 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:05,119 Speaker 2: eclipsed by something harsher quote a preference for domination, degradation 344 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 2: and the prevention of the adversaries recovery. I mean, I 345 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 2: think he's right, though, I think that we've seen kind 346 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 2: of a at least a lower intensity, maybe not as 347 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 2: high intensity, but we've seen a long scale policy of 348 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 2: domination even before this moment. But I think this moment 349 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 2: does definitely bring it out, which brings me to my 350 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 2: question of like for Hesbola in particular, in the last 351 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:31,480 Speaker 2: year two years, like there have been assassinations, we saw 352 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,320 Speaker 2: the Pager attack. You know, it seems that Hesbola has 353 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 2: been very effectively weakened. And since the Israelians are now 354 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 2: kind of going all out, what do you think is 355 00:17:42,400 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 2: going to happen to Hezbolas as a group, set aside. 356 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 1: Perhaps their public support or you know, lack thereof. 357 00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,119 Speaker 3: So it's important to note that Hezbola comes from a 358 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 3: certain context. They hose in the context of South Lebanon 359 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:58,399 Speaker 3: during the israel occupation of South Lebanon, theyse as the 360 00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 3: alternative to existing party that were either seen as to 361 00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:03,880 Speaker 3: complicity with the Israelis or maybe too weak or complacent 362 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:07,560 Speaker 3: or whatnot. And essentially because there was a need for 363 00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 3: something like has Ball at the time. And again this 364 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:12,959 Speaker 3: is completely regardless of my personal opposition to a lot 365 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 3: of their politics, whether it's a Lebanon or especially in Syria. 366 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 3: But that question, if you're going to call it the 367 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 3: Lebanese question, it's completely being side stepped, it's not being 368 00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 3: tackled whatsoever. And in fact, it's it's not that dissimilar, 369 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,200 Speaker 3: I think from the Israeli attempt to erase or triig 370 00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,520 Speaker 3: to pretend as of the Palestinian question as well as 371 00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 3: can be completely side stepped. But they can just continue 372 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 3: to pursue this policy of just complete domination, as you said, 373 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 3: you know, make these apomic codeas with the UEE and 374 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 3: other some of the other Arab states, for example, without 375 00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 3: any mentions of Valestine and Palestinians and so on and 376 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,840 Speaker 3: so forth. And in the case of Lebanon is like 377 00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 3: less official because there isn't that component, but of the 378 00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 3: spirit of it is pretty similar. There is a sort 379 00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:58,120 Speaker 3: of like illegal ilegalistic framework of the Land for Peace, 380 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,480 Speaker 3: and I think explaining that at least beef would I 381 00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 3: think connectualize the quote that you even you just read 382 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 3: out to us here that you know, the Isaelis occupied 383 00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:10,400 Speaker 3: Arab territories in nineteen sixty seven. Palestinitary obviously they're being 384 00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,119 Speaker 3: gudz at the West Bank, and is Jerusalem. Egypt, of 385 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:16,440 Speaker 3: course was the Sinai and Cia was and still is 386 00:19:16,520 --> 00:19:19,640 Speaker 3: the Golden Heights. And so the Land for Peace quote 387 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,679 Speaker 3: unquote worked. In the case of Egypt, they occupied the Sinai, 388 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 3: and then as part of a peace deal with Egypt, 389 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:26,800 Speaker 3: they returned the Sinai to the Egyptians. 390 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,919 Speaker 4: It didn't happen with Syria. 391 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,080 Speaker 3: The Sian Golden Heights have been occupied since nineteen sixty seven, 392 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:37,520 Speaker 3: were effectively the factor annexed in nineteen eighty one. They've 393 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,400 Speaker 3: been annexed for so long that Smotrich himself was born 394 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 3: in an illegal settlement in the Siyan Golden Heights. And 395 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 3: I'm mentioning this because the Lebanese state, the Prime Minister 396 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,320 Speaker 3: I mentioned earlier about what a week ago, ten days 397 00:19:51,320 --> 00:19:53,960 Speaker 3: ago or so, said that he's hoping for a Land 398 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 3: for Peace framework, which to me shows just how desperate 399 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:00,879 Speaker 3: even they are, like they don't know what to do, 400 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:03,119 Speaker 3: they have no options in front of them. So what 401 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 3: they're hoping is that by doing all of these things 402 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:09,119 Speaker 3: public declarations against hezball law I, declaining some of their 403 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 3: activities illegal by I think, like a few days ago 404 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,200 Speaker 3: they said that the media cannot call them the resistance, 405 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,640 Speaker 3: for example, which is there in Arabic, how they will 406 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:19,280 Speaker 3: be referred to, and so on and so forth, these 407 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,240 Speaker 3: attempts to placate the Americans especially, and so on and 408 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 3: maybe like show that you know we're doing something about this, 409 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 3: can you stop The Israelis essentially haven't achieved anything there 410 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 3: is really have just escalated, continue to escalate, continue to 411 00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 3: bomb more and more and more larger in. 412 00:20:34,760 --> 00:20:35,760 Speaker 4: Larger parts of the country. 413 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 3: But that Land for Peace framework, which is the frame 414 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 3: of since the sixties, basically is, as far as I 415 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 3: can tell right now, the only thing that the Dobinese 416 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:47,440 Speaker 3: government hope that they can even use. But the difficulty 417 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,280 Speaker 3: in all of that, like a, I don't think it's 418 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 3: it's realistic because of the same example, like they haven't 419 00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 3: they have never given up their Golden Heights. I don't 420 00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 3: see any reason why they would if they do decide 421 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,879 Speaker 3: to occupy all of South Lebanon. And also because the 422 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:01,879 Speaker 3: shift and this is what you're referring to with that 423 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:05,000 Speaker 3: code of that person you mentioned, the shift in Israeli 424 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:08,800 Speaker 3: politics in the past few decades. Isn't even that, if 425 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 3: you might call it strategic, that we're going to do 426 00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 3: the thing even if it's illegal, We're going to occupy 427 00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,520 Speaker 3: land if it's illegal. But sort of like the ultimate 428 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,840 Speaker 3: purpose of it is something that resembles some kind of 429 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 3: diplomatic negotiation it's domination almost for its own sake. 430 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 4: There is no end go necessarily. 431 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 3: You mentioned there of course religious Zionists, but you also 432 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 3: have others that are not interested in settlements. They're just 433 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 3: interested in destroying the land, like destroying having this so 434 00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 3: called buffer zone, which is a euphemism for just in 435 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 3: no man's land, just destroying everything. And so the policy 436 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 3: can shift in a sense, but the intention is to 437 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,920 Speaker 3: just try and dominate for as long as possible for 438 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 3: its own sake. And this is a wider pattern in 439 00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,040 Speaker 3: Israeli politics that I don't know how well understood. It 440 00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 3: is maybe a bit more now than before, because even 441 00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:58,719 Speaker 3: before the ongoing war, you're unstarted theft Tally Bennet, who 442 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 3: was a prime minister of his and reportedly wants to 443 00:22:01,600 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 3: replace Natanya, who in the upcoming elections said that Turkey 444 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 3: is the next ran. But virtually any Israeli paper center 445 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 3: and further to the right, which is most of them, 446 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:14,440 Speaker 3: you read them, there is someone who has at some 447 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,240 Speaker 3: point and this I'm not talking to this a random 448 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,119 Speaker 3: person talking like a high ranking politician and military official, 449 00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 3: at some point this hype like Turkey as being next 450 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:24,480 Speaker 3: and what needs to be understod with all of this 451 00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 3: is not or can. 452 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 4: They actually do this or whatnot? Because maybe they can't. 453 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 4: I don't know. I hope we never find out. But 454 00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:31,920 Speaker 4: it's that like they. 455 00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:35,119 Speaker 3: Can't stops, it's becoming an end in itself. 456 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 4: There has to be an enemy. 457 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 3: There has to be a constant creation almost of like 458 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:43,160 Speaker 3: an external enemy in like in Israeli political discourse today, 459 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,680 Speaker 3: because nothing else works in it's any politics, and this 460 00:22:46,840 --> 00:22:49,199 Speaker 3: is a shift in It'saeli politics in the past. I'm 461 00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 3: gonna say, I don't know, two or three decades, don't 462 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 3: know how one would start counting that shift. And it 463 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,879 Speaker 3: does go back to the Palestinian question and in the 464 00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,800 Speaker 3: sense of like them not wanting to address it at all, 465 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 3: not even pretending that they're going to, because they've been pretending, 466 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 3: you know, obviously not actually doing it, but even pretending that, 467 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 3: you know, they were doing so with the Austro accord 468 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 3: and whatnot. There isn't even that I think it's useful 469 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:14,600 Speaker 3: to understand their attitude towards Lebanon as at least in 470 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:18,760 Speaker 3: part a continuation of that attitude towards Palestinians, and in 471 00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 3: many ways, like the Palestine question, itself. 472 00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:23,480 Speaker 4: He means the one that they want to avoid at 473 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 4: all costs and whatever that. 474 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 3: Means, bombing Iran, bombing Lebanon, bombing other countries later, I 475 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 3: don't know. Obviously bombing year, they've already done that, you know, 476 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 3: and so. 477 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 4: On and so forth. 478 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 1: Genocide is a tool of concept management. 479 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's just domination, I said, for its own sake, 480 00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 3: because they can't imagine any kind of other alternative, and 481 00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 3: they haven't had a need to do so, because you know, 482 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:47,720 Speaker 3: as you said, they've gotten away with a livestream genocide 483 00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:50,200 Speaker 3: for over two years now, Why would they think differently 484 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 3: about Lebanon, a very poor country that you know, doesn't 485 00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 3: have that many resources and whatnot. Which isn't to say 486 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,320 Speaker 3: that they will succeed, that they will win and so on. 487 00:23:59,520 --> 00:24:01,679 Speaker 3: But what they've been saying this is the intention. 488 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 1: I think that's very valid. 489 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 2: I mean, it's not a coincidence you said, you know, 490 00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 2: you would try to trace it back to like the 491 00:24:09,000 --> 00:24:11,159 Speaker 2: past two or three decades. It's not a coincidence that 492 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:18,160 Speaker 2: this mentality and this you know, reorientation of Israel's entire policy, 493 00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:23,200 Speaker 2: especially comes after the end of the Second Palistenian Inta 494 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:27,080 Speaker 2: Falda and then not even just no meaningful negotiations, no 495 00:24:27,240 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 2: negotiations at all. Like you said, there was the land 496 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 2: for peace mantra. The idea with that is that they 497 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,040 Speaker 2: were going to get peace if they give back land. 498 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,200 Speaker 2: But the underlying assumption of that is that they would 499 00:24:39,200 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 2: be held accountable by the international community, by their own allies. 500 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 2: After the second Intafaluda, basically the Americans and the international 501 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 2: community gave up, essentially even pretending that Palestinians would ever 502 00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 2: get anything. This has culminated in now and Israel that 503 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,680 Speaker 2: as you said, it's domination for dominations, and they think 504 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:06,080 Speaker 2: that they can maintain control in this way. Now Turkey 505 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 2: is going to be a different beast than Iran, Turkey's 506 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:09,960 Speaker 2: and NATO member. 507 00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,080 Speaker 1: But as we've seen in the last. 508 00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 2: Couple of weeks, like they don't care about blowing up 509 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:18,040 Speaker 2: the entire region, they don't care about the Strait of 510 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,880 Speaker 2: Hormus being closed, they don't care about oil fields being attacked, 511 00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 2: and they don't care about you know, the global economy tanking. 512 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:27,000 Speaker 2: Like it's not inconceivable that they attack Turkey, even if 513 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 2: the outcome might be different, or we might see like 514 00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 2: further escalations. 515 00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 1: It's not inconceivable. And now I just want to point 516 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: this out. 517 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,200 Speaker 2: The very kind of pro Israel think tank in Washington, 518 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 2: the Foundation for the Defensive Democracy. Their new line now 519 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:45,680 Speaker 2: is to say land for peace is outdated. Now we 520 00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:49,880 Speaker 2: need to pursue instead peace for land. Yeah, which means 521 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:54,360 Speaker 2: acceptance of Zionism earns these people a right to govern themselves. 522 00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,280 Speaker 3: It's a politicular vision that does not see the other 523 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:12,439 Speaker 3: as human, as as having agency, as as deserving anything. 524 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,959 Speaker 3: It's not like they have an opposing side on an 525 00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 3: opponent that they want to defeat, but ultimately have some 526 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 3: kind of settlement or or and move beyond that or whatnot. 527 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 3: There is no long term plan, is what I'm trying 528 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 3: to say. I guess, and maybe to emphasize a bit 529 00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:28,760 Speaker 3: more in the case in the case of Lebinon, like, 530 00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:31,720 Speaker 3: so what happens next for Hesbela, for example, I'm not 531 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:32,440 Speaker 3: entirely sure. 532 00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:33,960 Speaker 4: I don't I don't think anyone really knows. 533 00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 3: It's it seems clear that the Israelis underestimated their capabilities. 534 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,880 Speaker 4: But to what extent that will matter? 535 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:42,920 Speaker 3: If the Israelis continue to just bomb and bomb and 536 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:45,119 Speaker 3: bomb Lebanon, for weeks on end, if not not on end, 537 00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:45,359 Speaker 3: and so on. 538 00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 4: I can't tell. 539 00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:48,680 Speaker 3: What I can tell is that in the same way 540 00:26:48,680 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 3: as the Israels want to ignore the Palestinian question, but 541 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:54,600 Speaker 3: it's still it's still there. It haunts them in in 542 00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,040 Speaker 3: in a way because I work on on ontology, and 543 00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,440 Speaker 3: in case of Lebanon, there is also that in many 544 00:27:00,480 --> 00:27:03,120 Speaker 3: ways that if you look at the shift in this course, 545 00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,600 Speaker 3: even within Israeli politics from like let's say seventies, especially 546 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 3: eighties onwards. I'm not going to say it was never good, 547 00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 3: but there was a stronger component of Israeli like politicians, 548 00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:16,560 Speaker 3: let's say, like a higher percentage of them anyway, that were, 549 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,520 Speaker 3: for lack of a better term, pragmatic that we're willing 550 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 3: to have concessions, that we're wanting to have whatever, because 551 00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 3: if only because they just did not want to deal 552 00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,480 Speaker 3: with like occupying a foreign country that they had no 553 00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,480 Speaker 3: intention to legally annexed, as they did with the legally 554 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 3: none of this is legal, but like within Israel low 555 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 3: I mean, as they did with the Golden Heights. And 556 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 3: so that's what I'm saying in the case of Lebanon 557 00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 3: that it's almost like the worst case scenario is what's 558 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:42,200 Speaker 3: currently happening. And that's like completely regardless of what happens 559 00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 3: to Hesbola, because Hezbola can disappear tomorrow, and the problem 560 00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:48,000 Speaker 3: will continue to be the same, if not just get worse. 561 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 4: The country has no economy to speak of. The currency was. 562 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,240 Speaker 3: Already devalued during the economic crisis, was one of the 563 00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:58,800 Speaker 3: highest evaluations in the world. And there are no prospects 564 00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,840 Speaker 3: going forward in terms of like making this accountry that 565 00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,400 Speaker 3: can even sustain itself. It's already very like import dependent. 566 00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,560 Speaker 3: But if you exclude the South Lebanon and it being 567 00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,560 Speaker 3: a bread basket, East Lebanon as well, by the way, 568 00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 3: it's also a bread basket, and that's another area of 569 00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:19,600 Speaker 3: Lebanon that these veilies have been constantly bombarding. To paraphrase, 570 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,120 Speaker 3: that is really ministered. That like Lebanon is not a state, 571 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 3: it's not a nation. It doesn't, it doesn't, it's just 572 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:28,120 Speaker 3: a place that's on the map. And that will pose 573 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:30,680 Speaker 3: a problem obviously first and foremost for us, like for 574 00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,879 Speaker 3: the Lebanese and people who live in Lebanon, but it 575 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:36,119 Speaker 3: is also a problem geopolitically, it's a problem internationally. It 576 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 3: will freak out the EU in terms of the refugee crisis, 577 00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 3: because the EU has actually counted on Lebanon to keep 578 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,400 Speaker 3: a lot of people in Lebanon. They extend like a 579 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,400 Speaker 3: billion euros I think it was two or three years 580 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,000 Speaker 3: ago or something like that. I got about it twice 581 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,360 Speaker 3: a year at a time, actually, because Lebanon had the 582 00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 3: highest percentage, maybe still does now. I don't know of 583 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,480 Speaker 3: refugees per capita, so to speak, like in compared to 584 00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,840 Speaker 3: citizens in the world, one million or so serenior refugees 585 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,120 Speaker 3: with a cop three five manion Lebanese or something like 586 00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 3: that along those lines. 587 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:02,880 Speaker 4: There's no census in Lebanon. 588 00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,040 Speaker 3: So I'm saying all of this to sort of emphasize 589 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 3: the why there is this sense of despair in the 590 00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:12,000 Speaker 3: country and why if that's not even remotely at rest. 591 00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,440 Speaker 3: Whatever fires we're seeing now, whatever like hers we're seeing, 592 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,320 Speaker 3: I just don't see any any way. They will stop 593 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 3: anytime soon, whatever happens, even to his bottle next. There's 594 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:23,760 Speaker 3: no reason to imagine that some other group wouldn't be 595 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,160 Speaker 3: formed at some point because people live there, people are 596 00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,000 Speaker 3: from that lane. We're talking about a million people. They 597 00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 3: have nowhere else to go. It's not like the Lebanese 598 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:35,640 Speaker 3: passport is so good that you can just you know, 599 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:36,680 Speaker 3: go on a flight and go us. 600 00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 4: But there's nowhere else. 601 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:39,440 Speaker 3: They're just going to stay in Lebanon, and many of 602 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 3: them would want to, of course go back to South Lebanon. 603 00:29:41,840 --> 00:29:45,000 Speaker 4: This problem is not going away. But if you hear the. 604 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:48,080 Speaker 3: Rhetoric of your Nitan Yaho, you're you're in your other 605 00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 3: politicians like this is not part of the picture. This 606 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:53,200 Speaker 3: has nothing to do with what their intentions are. They're 607 00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 3: exclusively talking to other Israelis. The debate is not whether 608 00:29:57,600 --> 00:30:00,840 Speaker 3: we should destroy South Lebanon or that we should destroy 609 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 3: Lebanon itself. The debate is what do we do once 610 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 3: it's destroyed, And even that it is barely a debate, 611 00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,640 Speaker 3: but like that's the extent of where it goes in 612 00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,600 Speaker 3: terms of like it's really discourse. And yeah, I guess 613 00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:12,640 Speaker 3: maybe just to drive the point home that if the 614 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 3: Israelis themselves are not stopped in one way or another 615 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,960 Speaker 3: by their allies, obviously America has the biggest leverage, or 616 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,320 Speaker 3: the EU being the second closest one in one way 617 00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 3: or another, whatever the means are, economic boycott, withdrawing your 618 00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,880 Speaker 3: ambassador as Pain has done a couple of weeks ago, 619 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 3: but just like on a global scale, like even maybe 620 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 3: dwarfing the and the boycott campaign against a Pote South 621 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,640 Speaker 3: Africa at the time, this problem is just going to expand, 622 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 3: and people in listening to this of course see that 623 00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 3: seeing version of that, Iran can just close the strait 624 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:47,920 Speaker 3: of Hormus and then suddenly everyone this is everyone's problem 625 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 3: as well. And America bombing those oil depots, and of 626 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 3: course Elon has also done that in retaliation, but proportionately 627 00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 3: still more. The Americans in the Israelis has polluted like 628 00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 3: I forgot the number, but like the equivalent of like 629 00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 3: eighty four countries combined in terms of like the toxin 630 00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:05,719 Speaker 3: releasing yea. These are things that people in Iran are 631 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:10,120 Speaker 3: breathing in, and the entire region relies on design nation plants. 632 00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 3: And the Americans bombed one in Iran, Iran retaliated and 633 00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:15,400 Speaker 3: bombed another one in Bahrain. 634 00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:17,240 Speaker 4: If that continues, who knows. 635 00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:21,720 Speaker 3: There's been increasing attemps, not just attemps, actually strikes, including 636 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:25,280 Speaker 3: just yesterday against like nuclear facilities or like close enough 637 00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 3: to nuclear facilities, so who knows what would have happen? 638 00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:29,520 Speaker 3: Then to say it's out of control would be like 639 00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 3: meaningless at this point. But there are levels of where 640 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 3: this can go. And Lebanon is in a sense like 641 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,920 Speaker 3: deceivingly small. There's a book would Beware of Small States 642 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:43,080 Speaker 3: that talks about Lebanon because a lot of the world 643 00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 3: is happening in Lebanon, to put it to kind of 644 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,160 Speaker 3: put it maybe metaphorically, and the trends that are being 645 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:51,320 Speaker 3: done to the Lebanese or two people in Lebanon, like 646 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:54,000 Speaker 3: the Doah doctrine in two thousand and six was then 647 00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,480 Speaker 3: used in Gaza, obviously, and now they're saying that they're 648 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,680 Speaker 3: going to use the Gaza methodology in Lebanon. 649 00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,200 Speaker 4: It came back to Lebanon in a sense. But the 650 00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:04,040 Speaker 4: point is that this will continue. 651 00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:06,720 Speaker 3: There is no objective reason to believe that if has 652 00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 3: Babla is destroyed and completely disarmed and what have you, 653 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,080 Speaker 3: that this problem is going to go away, because if anything, 654 00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 3: a new beast of some kind is going to be 655 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,920 Speaker 3: to be created in the fires in the. 656 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:21,000 Speaker 4: Same way that Hesbola was hated in the initial ones. 657 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 3: And so yeah, the problem ultimately, and I say this 658 00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:28,160 Speaker 3: as someone who has been campaigning writing gotten the death 659 00:32:28,240 --> 00:32:31,440 Speaker 3: threats from like Hesballa supporters in twenty nineteen when I 660 00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 3: was as part of the protest, we were beaten up 661 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:36,680 Speaker 3: by them. This comes from no sympathy whatsoever towards them. 662 00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:39,840 Speaker 3: It's just an acknowledgment and also a historian that they 663 00:32:39,920 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 3: come from a certain context. And if that context is 664 00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 3: not acknowledged at all, and in fact, the conditions that 665 00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:48,840 Speaker 3: brought them are now much worse than even the eighties, 666 00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,800 Speaker 3: why would we believe that something else won't come along 667 00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 3: later on in one way or another. And this notion 668 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,360 Speaker 3: that these alies have they're just a buffer zone and 669 00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,040 Speaker 3: then destabilized Lebanon and the or whatever it might be. 670 00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:04,200 Speaker 3: It also comes from like the sort of imperilest humists 671 00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:06,840 Speaker 3: that they believe that this won't harm them in one 672 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 3: way or another, that they can endlessly and permanently have 673 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 3: enabled to their north that has a lot of armed 674 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,480 Speaker 3: components and also constantly at. 675 00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:15,520 Speaker 4: War or whatever it might be. 676 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 3: It's hubans, it's imperious hubidts, and it's also extremely extremely 677 00:33:19,360 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 3: dangerous even beyond just what would happen to people in Lebanon. 678 00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard to like you said, underscore how apocalyptic 679 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 2: this is turning out to be. 680 00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:33,560 Speaker 1: Whether it's we're worried about the refugee waves. 681 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,080 Speaker 2: That are going to be generated because of this, whether 682 00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 2: we're worried about ecological impact, whether we're worried about non 683 00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:44,200 Speaker 2: state actors, militia groups, violent groups emerging in the future. 684 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 1: Like, on every level, this is not sustainable. I don't know. 685 00:33:48,040 --> 00:33:51,560 Speaker 1: I feel like I'm screamming into a void, except we've known, 686 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 1: We've known, like you said, for decades that this is 687 00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:55,240 Speaker 1: not sustainable. 688 00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,160 Speaker 2: This is this is not a sustainable situation in the 689 00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 2: Middle East, and I want people to know that this 690 00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:04,920 Speaker 2: is not a trumpet problem. This has long been a 691 00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:11,320 Speaker 2: problem of American decision makers. Biden in particular, also like 692 00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:15,200 Speaker 2: there's a lot to blame for this situation. It's just 693 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 2: like you said, it's it's an imperial hubrisk, both on 694 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:22,399 Speaker 2: the part of Israel and the United States. But it's 695 00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:27,560 Speaker 2: also at its root the fact that they completely dehumanize 696 00:34:27,880 --> 00:34:30,080 Speaker 2: people in the Middle East, like they don't see them 697 00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:35,520 Speaker 2: as as human beings that will have human reactions. 698 00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't I'm not saying I'm not adding 699 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 1: anything to what you're saying. 700 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,960 Speaker 2: I'm just emphasizing here because I'm you know, as outraged 701 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 2: as you Yeah, yeah. 702 00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,000 Speaker 3: And like the thing is that it's it's sort of 703 00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:50,280 Speaker 3: the same principle in the sense of the same understanding 704 00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,320 Speaker 3: that also led me to, like for years now to 705 00:34:52,400 --> 00:34:53,720 Speaker 3: oppose the Yronian regime. 706 00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:54,960 Speaker 4: It's the same understanding. 707 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 3: It's not just that their brutality to whats people within 708 00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:00,400 Speaker 3: ran of course, but they have they have engaged in 709 00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,800 Speaker 3: plist campaigns in Cia most notably, but also in Iraq 710 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,319 Speaker 3: and in Lebanon is like a different kind of thing, 711 00:35:06,400 --> 00:35:09,480 Speaker 3: but there is that component of it as well that 712 00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 3: hasn't contributed to make them like a better opponent of 713 00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:13,760 Speaker 3: the Israelis or the Americans. 714 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:15,400 Speaker 4: If anything, it's made them weaker. 715 00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,000 Speaker 3: One of the many problems, but I think the biggest 716 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,480 Speaker 3: one now is that this is and this is completely 717 00:35:20,520 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 3: regardless of the ethics of the Ranian regime, which I've 718 00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:26,800 Speaker 3: opposed for several years as well. This has nothing to 719 00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,400 Speaker 3: do with supporting them or excusing their actions or anything 720 00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:34,399 Speaker 3: like that, but just understanding why the Israelites are acting, 721 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 3: specifically the Isais are acting the way they have been 722 00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:39,960 Speaker 3: acting for years now. There is this tendency. I mean, 723 00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,400 Speaker 3: if you go on the garden for example. Now you 724 00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:43,160 Speaker 3: see like crisis in the Middle East and you can 725 00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:44,879 Speaker 3: click on it and then you just go book years 726 00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,160 Speaker 3: and years and years as though it's the same thing 727 00:35:47,280 --> 00:35:49,800 Speaker 3: as we like, you know, it's just displays that has crises, 728 00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:52,640 Speaker 3: and it's sort of like you expect that this will happen. 729 00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:55,759 Speaker 3: But as I think people know a bit better now 730 00:35:55,880 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 3: with the global component of it, this also has a 731 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:00,759 Speaker 3: globe ramification. 732 00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,880 Speaker 4: Even the technologies that are being pioneered if you want. 733 00:36:03,760 --> 00:36:05,520 Speaker 3: By the Israelis and also by the Americans to some 734 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 3: extent in places like Gaza, then get exported elsewhere. Palenteer 735 00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 3: is now going to be penalty AI is now going 736 00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,799 Speaker 3: to be a core component of the US military. These 737 00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,120 Speaker 3: are things that are like because that's what I mean 738 00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,560 Speaker 3: by like Lebanon is deceptively small. 739 00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:24,239 Speaker 4: It's like it's not important geopolitically for the most part. 740 00:36:24,600 --> 00:36:26,840 Speaker 4: But because that is the case, and of course Gaza 741 00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 4: as well, then it allows it has allowed the Israelis 742 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:31,880 Speaker 4: to get away with a lot of things. 743 00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,800 Speaker 3: So maybe this is I don't know, a cliched or 744 00:36:35,800 --> 00:36:37,840 Speaker 3: I don't know, it's a meaningless thing to repeat. But 745 00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,759 Speaker 3: the problem really goes back to impunity. The problem really 746 00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,320 Speaker 3: goes back to the fact that nothing the Israelis have 747 00:36:44,520 --> 00:36:47,759 Speaker 3: ever done, at least in the past several decades, has 748 00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,680 Speaker 3: had any consequences to them, to what they do to 749 00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,200 Speaker 3: the region and so on. And this is absolutely a 750 00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,800 Speaker 3: bipartisan problem in America. None of this will be possible 751 00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,360 Speaker 3: without the Americans. There's a very good argument to be 752 00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,120 Speaker 3: made that if we're talking about the Isaely occupation of Palestine, 753 00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,239 Speaker 3: we need to say the American is Gaely occupation of Palestine, 754 00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,520 Speaker 3: the bombing of Lebanon, we need to say. It's also 755 00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:12,400 Speaker 3: none of this would be physically possible, diplomatically possible, economically 756 00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:16,080 Speaker 3: possible were it not for this unconditional support that the 757 00:37:16,120 --> 00:37:19,080 Speaker 3: acaets have gotten from the Americans for decades and decades now. 758 00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:23,720 Speaker 3: If Biden had done anything about Israel's genocide in Gaza, 759 00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,680 Speaker 3: really almost anything, I don't think we would be where 760 00:37:26,760 --> 00:37:27,320 Speaker 3: we are today. 761 00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:29,480 Speaker 4: And so no, this is not a Trump problem. It's 762 00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,799 Speaker 4: just the Trump being Trump is making it much worse, 763 00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:33,680 Speaker 4: speeding it up. 764 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,239 Speaker 3: It's just exploding everything even faster, speeding it up and 765 00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:39,880 Speaker 3: adding new dimensions to it, and so on and so forth. 766 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:43,719 Speaker 3: But the problem goes back to American imperialist hubris, a 767 00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,640 Speaker 3: lot of people not knowing what they're even doing in 768 00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:48,080 Speaker 3: the region and the consequences of it all. So, yeah, 769 00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,680 Speaker 3: I'm not someone who tends to be very pessimistic necessarily 770 00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,960 Speaker 3: and stuff like that, but there's a lot of ways 771 00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:56,759 Speaker 3: in which what is currently happening in terms of the 772 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,480 Speaker 3: Itaely and American war in Iran and Itscaily war in 773 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,200 Speaker 3: Lebanon and so on, that can just go to different 774 00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:07,440 Speaker 3: levels that I generally, and I'm someone who has report 775 00:38:07,480 --> 00:38:10,600 Speaker 3: even reported on conflicts for a long time now, genuinely 776 00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:13,920 Speaker 3: struggled to even imagine. And I don't understand like I'm 777 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:15,600 Speaker 3: just panicking or anything like that, or there is there 778 00:38:15,680 --> 00:38:19,000 Speaker 3: is a component of that, but it is a real 779 00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,839 Speaker 3: problem that if Israel is not stopped in any way 780 00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,320 Speaker 3: at this point, this will continue, and there's no objective 781 00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:28,400 Speaker 3: reason to believe otherwise. 782 00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:29,879 Speaker 4: Yeah. 783 00:38:30,800 --> 00:38:36,080 Speaker 2: Extremely alarming to say the least. But thank you Elia 784 00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,640 Speaker 2: so much for making the time to explain this. I'll 785 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:41,560 Speaker 2: link to the fire these times in the show notes. 786 00:38:41,600 --> 00:38:45,040 Speaker 2: Ilia has a excellent podcast, and it's not love bit 787 00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:48,800 Speaker 2: on specific it's kind of an internationalist perspective. For disclosure, 788 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:52,440 Speaker 2: I've been on it many times, I've produced some episodes, 789 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:56,640 Speaker 2: so yeah, there's not a bias. But it really is 790 00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:58,800 Speaker 2: a good, very good podcast. In any case, Thank you 791 00:38:58,840 --> 00:39:01,600 Speaker 2: so much, Ilia, and hopefully we'll have you on on 792 00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:02,560 Speaker 2: better times. 793 00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:04,360 Speaker 4: Thanks, thank you, thank you for having me. 794 00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,280 Speaker 1: It Could Happen Here is a production of cool Zone Media. 795 00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 5: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 796 00:39:13,600 --> 00:39:17,120 Speaker 5: coolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 797 00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:19,160 Speaker 5: Apple Podcasts, or wherever. 798 00:39:18,960 --> 00:39:20,080 Speaker 1: You listen to podcasts. 799 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,480 Speaker 5: You can now find sources for It Could Happen Here, 800 00:39:22,560 --> 00:39:25,480 Speaker 5: listed directly in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.