1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:33,970 Speaker 1: Pushkin. It wasn't a particularly sophisticated hijacking. Three somewhat drunk 2 00:00:34,010 --> 00:00:37,330 Speaker 1: young men charged into the cockpit of the Ethiopian Airline's 3 00:00:37,370 --> 00:00:42,050 Speaker 1: plane and grabbed a fireman's axe from the wall. Everybody 4 00:00:42,130 --> 00:00:45,250 Speaker 1: should be seated, I herbim bump. They beat up the 5 00:00:45,290 --> 00:00:47,490 Speaker 1: first officer and pushed him out of the flight deck, 6 00:00:47,930 --> 00:00:53,250 Speaker 1: then made their demands. The pilot, forty two year old 7 00:00:53,370 --> 00:00:57,850 Speaker 1: Leel Abata, was an Ethiopian Airlines veteran. He had dealt 8 00:00:57,890 --> 00:01:01,890 Speaker 1: with two previous hijackings. Both times he had eventually managed 9 00:01:01,930 --> 00:01:06,050 Speaker 1: to talk the hijackers into giving themselves up. Both times, 10 00:01:06,570 --> 00:01:12,210 Speaker 1: nobody had been hurt. This new hijacking was alarming, but 11 00:01:12,490 --> 00:01:17,610 Speaker 1: perhaps manageable. So outnumbered three to one in the cockpit, 12 00:01:18,130 --> 00:01:21,690 Speaker 1: Laoll played it cool. He assumed the hijackers were not 13 00:01:21,890 --> 00:01:25,730 Speaker 1: interested in murder. This was five years before nine eleven. 14 00:01:26,490 --> 00:01:29,650 Speaker 1: Laoll reckoned the men who took over his plane wanted 15 00:01:29,730 --> 00:01:33,130 Speaker 1: money or attention, or maybe they were desperate to be 16 00:01:33,170 --> 00:01:36,810 Speaker 1: taken somewhere, and he was right. This was a simple 17 00:01:36,970 --> 00:01:41,330 Speaker 1: old school hijacking. The hijackers just wanted the plane to reroute. 18 00:01:42,010 --> 00:01:46,090 Speaker 1: It was November the twenty third, nineteen ninety six. The plane, 19 00:01:46,290 --> 00:01:49,570 Speaker 1: a Boeing seven sixty seven, was flying from the capital 20 00:01:49,570 --> 00:01:54,450 Speaker 1: of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, to the capital of Kenya, Nairobi, 21 00:01:54,930 --> 00:02:01,570 Speaker 1: and the hijackers wanted to go somewhere else, namely Australia. 22 00:02:01,930 --> 00:02:06,010 Speaker 1: There was just one problem. There wasn't the slightest chance 23 00:02:06,170 --> 00:02:10,250 Speaker 1: that they could fly the distance. Ethiope In Airlines Flight 24 00:02:10,490 --> 00:02:13,930 Speaker 1: nine six one was in the middle of a Dunning 25 00:02:14,170 --> 00:02:21,450 Speaker 1: Kruger hijack. I'm Tim Harford and you're listening to cautionary tales. 26 00:02:43,370 --> 00:02:47,050 Speaker 1: This tale is about the Dunning Kruger effect, what it is, 27 00:02:47,330 --> 00:02:50,570 Speaker 1: how it became famous, and what we get wrong about it. 28 00:02:51,490 --> 00:02:54,290 Speaker 1: But we should probably start by explaining what the Dunning 29 00:02:54,330 --> 00:02:57,650 Speaker 1: Kruger effect is, and for that we have to start 30 00:02:57,690 --> 00:03:02,290 Speaker 1: with a gentleman named MacArthur Wheeler. You wouldn't have thought 31 00:03:02,290 --> 00:03:05,090 Speaker 1: you'd have much trouble picking mister Wheeler out of a lineup. 32 00:03:05,410 --> 00:03:08,890 Speaker 1: He was five ft six and two hundred and seventy pounds, 33 00:03:09,290 --> 00:03:12,890 Speaker 1: the height of a jockey and the weight of a linebacker. 34 00:03:13,970 --> 00:03:16,650 Speaker 1: But when detectives knocked on his door in the early 35 00:03:16,730 --> 00:03:20,130 Speaker 1: hours of the twentieth of April nineteen ninety five and 36 00:03:20,290 --> 00:03:23,970 Speaker 1: arrested him on suspicion of carrying out two bank robberies 37 00:03:23,970 --> 00:03:28,210 Speaker 1: in his hometown of Pittsburgh. He was astonished, but I 38 00:03:28,330 --> 00:03:32,370 Speaker 1: wore the lemon juice. OW wore the lemon juice, a 39 00:03:32,490 --> 00:03:38,730 Speaker 1: perplexed Wheeler declared to the equally perplexed detectives. MacArthur Wheeler 40 00:03:39,090 --> 00:03:42,410 Speaker 1: was destined to be convicted in court. He was also 41 00:03:42,490 --> 00:03:45,450 Speaker 1: destined to become a minor legend in the field of 42 00:03:45,530 --> 00:03:51,290 Speaker 1: behavioral science, as an inspiration for two academic psychologists, David 43 00:03:51,370 --> 00:03:56,610 Speaker 1: Dunning and Justin Krueger. When David Dunning read about MacArthur Wheeler, 44 00:03:56,810 --> 00:04:02,610 Speaker 1: he thought, here is an incompetence so fascinating, so profound, 45 00:04:02,890 --> 00:04:07,090 Speaker 1: as to be worthy of close study. It turns out 46 00:04:07,130 --> 00:04:10,130 Speaker 1: that mister Wheeler had been told that squeezing lemon juice 47 00:04:10,130 --> 00:04:13,650 Speaker 1: on his face would render him invisible to security cameras 48 00:04:13,930 --> 00:04:18,730 Speaker 1: and thus able to rob banks with impunity. Exactly where 49 00:04:18,770 --> 00:04:22,650 Speaker 1: this theory came from is unclear. Maybe it's because lemon 50 00:04:22,730 --> 00:04:26,090 Speaker 1: juice can be used to make invisible ink. Maybe it's 51 00:04:26,090 --> 00:04:30,930 Speaker 1: because well, I don't know. I just don't know. But 52 00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:34,050 Speaker 1: MacArthur Wheeler didn't just take some guy's word for it. 53 00:04:34,370 --> 00:04:37,530 Speaker 1: That would be just plain stupid, wouldn't it. No, he 54 00:04:37,610 --> 00:04:40,890 Speaker 1: decided to test the idea. He bathed his face in 55 00:04:41,010 --> 00:04:45,850 Speaker 1: lemon juice, and then he pointed a polaroid camera at 56 00:04:45,930 --> 00:04:49,730 Speaker 1: his stinging face, with his blinded eyes streaming tears through 57 00:04:49,850 --> 00:04:53,730 Speaker 1: closed lids, and took a test selfie. And you know what, 58 00:04:54,370 --> 00:04:58,690 Speaker 1: he wasn't in the shot. The juice worked. Now You 59 00:04:58,810 --> 00:05:01,530 Speaker 1: or I might think maybe he didn't give the photograph 60 00:05:01,610 --> 00:05:05,290 Speaker 1: time to develop, or maybe blinded by the juice, he 61 00:05:05,450 --> 00:05:08,130 Speaker 1: pointed the camera at a blank wall rather than at 62 00:05:08,210 --> 00:05:10,930 Speaker 1: his own face. But it did not seem to have 63 00:05:10,970 --> 00:05:15,090 Speaker 1: occurred to MacArthur Wheeler that anything might be amiss. One 64 00:05:15,170 --> 00:05:18,570 Speaker 1: thing is clear enough, Wheeler was no better at photography 65 00:05:18,930 --> 00:05:22,930 Speaker 1: than he was at robbing banks. But beyond this quite 66 00:05:23,210 --> 00:05:28,210 Speaker 1: riveting ineptitude. Why was the academic researcher David Dunning so 67 00:05:28,290 --> 00:05:32,210 Speaker 1: intrigued by the case of MacArthur Wheeler. It's because the 68 00:05:32,290 --> 00:05:35,330 Speaker 1: thing about MacArthur Wheeler was not just that he was 69 00:05:35,370 --> 00:05:39,850 Speaker 1: an incompetent bank robber, but that he had no idea 70 00:05:39,890 --> 00:05:43,010 Speaker 1: that he was an incompetent bank robber, and people who 71 00:05:43,050 --> 00:05:46,210 Speaker 1: did not know they were incompetent were just the kind 72 00:05:46,250 --> 00:05:49,410 Speaker 1: of people that David Dunning and Justin Krueger had begun 73 00:05:49,410 --> 00:05:54,450 Speaker 1: to study. Dunning and Krueger set tests of competence to 74 00:05:54,530 --> 00:05:58,090 Speaker 1: groups of undergraduates. Then they asked them how they stacked 75 00:05:58,170 --> 00:06:01,370 Speaker 1: up to others in the group. For example, were they 76 00:06:01,450 --> 00:06:05,530 Speaker 1: better able than other students to distinguish funny from unfunny jokes. 77 00:06:06,490 --> 00:06:08,650 Speaker 1: Let's hear two of the jokes. Have a think about 78 00:06:08,650 --> 00:06:12,970 Speaker 1: which one of him is funny? Joke one, question what 79 00:06:13,210 --> 00:06:16,330 Speaker 1: is as big as a man but weighs nothing? Answer 80 00:06:17,130 --> 00:06:22,290 Speaker 1: his shadow or joke Two. If a kid asks where 81 00:06:22,410 --> 00:06:24,730 Speaker 1: rain comes from, I think a cute think to tell 82 00:06:24,810 --> 00:06:28,090 Speaker 1: him is God is crying. And if he asks why 83 00:06:28,170 --> 00:06:30,890 Speaker 1: God is crying, another cute think to tell him is 84 00:06:31,410 --> 00:06:34,850 Speaker 1: probably because of something you did. Now, I don't need 85 00:06:34,890 --> 00:06:37,170 Speaker 1: to tell you that. The first joke is not really 86 00:06:37,210 --> 00:06:40,130 Speaker 1: a joke at all. It's more of a riddle. Riddles 87 00:06:40,170 --> 00:06:42,410 Speaker 1: aren't usually funny, and we have a special name for 88 00:06:42,490 --> 00:06:46,810 Speaker 1: riddles that are funny. We call them jokes. The second 89 00:06:46,850 --> 00:06:49,490 Speaker 1: joke is written by Jack Handy, one of the funniest 90 00:06:49,490 --> 00:06:52,050 Speaker 1: men in the world, and was highly rated by a 91 00:06:52,090 --> 00:06:56,730 Speaker 1: panel of professional comedians Now, since I agree that joke 92 00:06:56,810 --> 00:06:59,690 Speaker 1: two is funnier, I guess that means I'm pretty good 93 00:06:59,690 --> 00:07:03,770 Speaker 1: at recognizing what's funny. But when Dunning and Krueger asked 94 00:07:03,890 --> 00:07:08,490 Speaker 1: their experimental subjects exactly that question, how good is your 95 00:07:08,530 --> 00:07:13,170 Speaker 1: ability to recognize what's funny? They found something interesting. The 96 00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:18,130 Speaker 1: students had no idea, or, to be more precise, all 97 00:07:18,170 --> 00:07:21,410 Speaker 1: the students thought they were pretty good. Some were right, 98 00:07:21,770 --> 00:07:25,490 Speaker 1: and some weren't. Those who had no sense of humor 99 00:07:26,130 --> 00:07:29,770 Speaker 1: just didn't realize it. But humor was just one of 100 00:07:29,770 --> 00:07:32,970 Speaker 1: the things that Dunning and Kruger tested. They also gave 101 00:07:33,010 --> 00:07:36,530 Speaker 1: tests of logical reasoning and of grammar. For grammar, they 102 00:07:36,570 --> 00:07:40,810 Speaker 1: found the same story as for humor. For logic, Dunning 103 00:07:40,810 --> 00:07:45,050 Speaker 1: and Kruger found something even more striking here. The good 104 00:07:45,050 --> 00:07:49,170 Speaker 1: but not great students realized they were good but not great. 105 00:07:49,930 --> 00:07:52,570 Speaker 1: But there were two groups of students who thought they 106 00:07:52,570 --> 00:07:57,370 Speaker 1: were outstanding logicians, the ones who'd done very well and 107 00:07:57,450 --> 00:08:02,770 Speaker 1: the ones who'd done very badly, Ladies and gentlemen. This 108 00:08:03,570 --> 00:08:11,970 Speaker 1: is the Dunning Kruger effect. Cautionary tails will return in 109 00:08:12,010 --> 00:08:28,290 Speaker 1: a moment. On flight nine six one, things aren't going well. 110 00:08:28,970 --> 00:08:32,490 Speaker 1: The hijackers remember have beaten up the co pilot, whose 111 00:08:32,570 --> 00:08:37,050 Speaker 1: name is Jonas Mercuria. They're threatening Layola Bata, the pilot, 112 00:08:37,370 --> 00:08:40,810 Speaker 1: and they're demanding that he fly them thousands of miles 113 00:08:40,850 --> 00:08:45,610 Speaker 1: to Australia. The hijackers are a strange bunch. They claim 114 00:08:45,650 --> 00:08:49,050 Speaker 1: they're a group of eleven. Maybe there are only three 115 00:08:49,090 --> 00:08:52,050 Speaker 1: of them on the flight deck with Layol. They're young, 116 00:08:52,330 --> 00:08:56,850 Speaker 1: in their mid twenties, clean shaven, they're nervous. One of 117 00:08:56,850 --> 00:08:59,530 Speaker 1: them has a stocking cap pulled down over his face 118 00:08:59,570 --> 00:09:03,130 Speaker 1: to conceal his features, but the other two haven't bothered, 119 00:09:03,210 --> 00:09:08,450 Speaker 1: so go figure. The leader has grabbed the public address system. 120 00:09:08,570 --> 00:09:12,250 Speaker 1: He tells passengers, speaking in the Ethiopian language, AM harrick, 121 00:09:13,010 --> 00:09:17,050 Speaker 1: we skipped from prison. Yeah, against the government. We are 122 00:09:17,170 --> 00:09:21,530 Speaker 1: hijacking the Blint. We have an explosive. If anybody morse, 123 00:09:21,930 --> 00:09:27,490 Speaker 1: we'll exploded. Le can't actually see an explosive. One of 124 00:09:27,490 --> 00:09:30,130 Speaker 1: the hijackers has grabbed a little fire axe from where 125 00:09:30,170 --> 00:09:33,250 Speaker 1: it's been stowed in the cockpit. That makes some sense 126 00:09:33,290 --> 00:09:36,250 Speaker 1: as an improvised weapon, although it also suggests he didn't 127 00:09:36,290 --> 00:09:39,570 Speaker 1: manage to smuggle a weapon on board. He also has 128 00:09:39,570 --> 00:09:42,050 Speaker 1: a bottle of whiskey that he's looted from the duty 129 00:09:42,090 --> 00:09:46,890 Speaker 1: free cart. A second hijacker has a fire extinguisher, again 130 00:09:47,290 --> 00:09:51,250 Speaker 1: opportunistically grabbed from stowage and the cockpit. That makes a 131 00:09:51,250 --> 00:09:56,770 Speaker 1: lot less sense. The third man has a glove. He says, 132 00:09:56,810 --> 00:10:00,730 Speaker 1: there's a bomb in the glove. Okay. In his other 133 00:10:00,730 --> 00:10:05,290 Speaker 1: hand he's got well, another bottle of stolen whiskey. The 134 00:10:05,370 --> 00:10:08,930 Speaker 1: men are not easy to understand. They're drunk and what 135 00:10:09,210 --> 00:10:13,130 Speaker 1: demanding seems crazy. But there are three of them and 136 00:10:13,210 --> 00:10:16,090 Speaker 1: there's only one of leol. So he's trying to do 137 00:10:16,170 --> 00:10:18,930 Speaker 1: what they tell him to do. Dick us to Australia. 138 00:10:19,130 --> 00:10:22,410 Speaker 1: Take the plane to Australia. There is not enough fuel 139 00:10:22,450 --> 00:10:26,170 Speaker 1: to go to Australia. Don't lay to us. They're smacking 140 00:10:26,250 --> 00:10:28,570 Speaker 1: him around, punching him, threatening him with the axe and 141 00:10:28,690 --> 00:10:31,210 Speaker 1: with a now broken whiskey bottle. There is not enough 142 00:10:31,210 --> 00:10:33,330 Speaker 1: fuel to go to Australia. The plane is only fuel 143 00:10:33,370 --> 00:10:35,610 Speaker 1: to fly to Niadobe. If you want to go to Australia, 144 00:10:35,650 --> 00:10:38,330 Speaker 1: we have to refuel. We can land at Mombassa and refuel. 145 00:10:39,090 --> 00:10:44,930 Speaker 1: Stop laying. We know you're lying. Take us to Australia. 146 00:10:45,050 --> 00:10:49,650 Speaker 1: We are not landing in Mombassa. LAOL is already trying 147 00:10:49,650 --> 00:10:52,610 Speaker 1: to work out how to get a message to Mombassa Airport, 148 00:10:53,410 --> 00:10:59,690 Speaker 1: but the hijackers have other ideas. We need to refuel ah. 149 00:10:59,730 --> 00:11:04,530 Speaker 1: We know the plane can fly for eleven hours without refueling. 150 00:11:05,090 --> 00:11:08,210 Speaker 1: This plane does not have enough fuel for that. Stop laying. 151 00:11:09,130 --> 00:11:13,650 Speaker 1: We know you're lying. We read this in your own magazine. 152 00:11:14,250 --> 00:11:18,690 Speaker 1: It's true. The in flight magazine of Ethiopian Airlines was 153 00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:23,410 Speaker 1: called Salamta. It still is, and the magazine did indeed 154 00:11:23,490 --> 00:11:28,610 Speaker 1: have one of those about our aircraft sections. Ethiopian Airlines 155 00:11:28,650 --> 00:11:31,570 Speaker 1: whilst the very first airline in the world to place 156 00:11:31,570 --> 00:11:34,330 Speaker 1: an order for the extended range version of the Bowing 157 00:11:34,370 --> 00:11:37,570 Speaker 1: seven sixty seven, so I imagine they were pretty keen 158 00:11:37,610 --> 00:11:41,490 Speaker 1: to boast about it. But just because a fully fueled 159 00:11:41,570 --> 00:11:46,090 Speaker 1: extended range Bowing seven sixty seven er could, in theory 160 00:11:46,290 --> 00:11:50,290 Speaker 1: get you from Addis Ababa to Australia six thousand miles 161 00:11:50,370 --> 00:11:53,770 Speaker 1: or so away, well it didn't mean that this particular 162 00:11:53,810 --> 00:11:57,010 Speaker 1: plane fueled for a short hop to Nairobi could make it, 163 00:11:57,890 --> 00:12:01,170 Speaker 1: because it couldn't. This plane has only a light fuel load. 164 00:12:01,210 --> 00:12:06,210 Speaker 1: We must land in Mumbasa. Dodds lay we've done our 165 00:12:06,490 --> 00:12:11,850 Speaker 1: zech they really had. Later police would raid the hijackers 166 00:12:11,930 --> 00:12:15,690 Speaker 1: hideout in Addis, they'd find a copy of salam To magazine, 167 00:12:16,330 --> 00:12:20,210 Speaker 1: and true enough, the Boeing seven sixty seven's maximum flight 168 00:12:20,250 --> 00:12:24,530 Speaker 1: time was underlined. These drunk young men thought they were 169 00:12:24,610 --> 00:12:28,770 Speaker 1: so smart that they had no idea how dumb they 170 00:12:28,810 --> 00:12:38,490 Speaker 1: really were. For Dunning Kruger hijack, Dunning and Krueger wrote 171 00:12:38,530 --> 00:12:41,730 Speaker 1: up their findings in a nineteen ninety nine research paper 172 00:12:41,890 --> 00:12:46,210 Speaker 1: titled Unskilled and Unaware of It. It's fun to read. 173 00:12:46,770 --> 00:12:50,170 Speaker 1: They even begin with the story of MacArthur Wheeler. Their 174 00:12:50,210 --> 00:12:53,370 Speaker 1: study was noticed in the cloisters of academia, but didn't 175 00:12:53,410 --> 00:12:57,690 Speaker 1: make much impression beyond them, not at first anyway. I 176 00:12:57,810 --> 00:13:01,730 Speaker 1: tracked Google searches for Dunning Kruger effect since two thousand 177 00:13:01,730 --> 00:13:04,930 Speaker 1: and four, and by way of comparison, I picked another 178 00:13:04,970 --> 00:13:09,250 Speaker 1: concept from social science, the tipping point, made famous by 179 00:13:09,290 --> 00:13:12,770 Speaker 1: Malcolm Gladwell himself in his first book, which of course 180 00:13:13,210 --> 00:13:17,250 Speaker 1: you should read, Ah, tim, what a sweet thing to say, 181 00:13:17,450 --> 00:13:21,210 Speaker 1: Not at all. In two thousand and four, nobody was 182 00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:24,890 Speaker 1: searching for Dunning Krueger. Loads of people were searching for 183 00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:29,970 Speaker 1: the tipping point. Gradually Over time, the Dunning Kruger effect 184 00:13:30,130 --> 00:13:33,570 Speaker 1: started to attract some attention. It first seemed to enter 185 00:13:33,570 --> 00:13:37,010 Speaker 1: the popular consciousness around the summer of twenty ten, and 186 00:13:37,090 --> 00:13:40,610 Speaker 1: it grew and grew. For a few years. It was 187 00:13:40,730 --> 00:13:44,250 Speaker 1: neck and neck with the tipping point, which, remember is 188 00:13:44,290 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 1: one of the most popular of all popularizations of an 189 00:13:47,650 --> 00:13:52,810 Speaker 1: idea in social science. Then in the summer of twenty sixteen, 190 00:13:53,450 --> 00:13:57,610 Speaker 1: interest in Dunning Krueger really starts to searge. You know, 191 00:13:57,730 --> 00:14:01,730 Speaker 1: all of my life, I've heard that a truly successful person, 192 00:14:01,810 --> 00:14:07,010 Speaker 1: a really really successful person, cannot run for public offers. 193 00:14:07,650 --> 00:14:11,770 Speaker 1: The US presidential election campaign is building. People are talking 194 00:14:11,850 --> 00:14:16,290 Speaker 1: about Donald Trump as the Dunning Kruger candidate, the presidential 195 00:14:16,370 --> 00:14:19,650 Speaker 1: hopeful who's so dumb he doesn't know how dumb he is. 196 00:14:20,330 --> 00:14:23,730 Speaker 1: But maybe Trump doesn't much care about that, because, of 197 00:14:23,770 --> 00:14:27,450 Speaker 1: course he wins, I'm a very stable genius. And the 198 00:14:27,530 --> 00:14:30,650 Speaker 1: Dunning Kruger effect is more famous now than it's ever been. 199 00:14:30,890 --> 00:14:34,090 Speaker 1: It's become a straight up insult now, a highbrow way 200 00:14:34,130 --> 00:14:37,850 Speaker 1: to accuse someone of the stupidest stupidity of all, to 201 00:14:37,930 --> 00:14:40,730 Speaker 1: accuse someone of being such an idiot they don't even 202 00:14:40,770 --> 00:14:44,850 Speaker 1: know they're an idiot. Suddenly we're all living in a 203 00:14:44,970 --> 00:14:49,090 Speaker 1: dunning Kruger world. We're surrounded by more ROMs who don't 204 00:14:49,130 --> 00:14:54,610 Speaker 1: know their more ROMs, and like Pilot Naoula Bata, we're outnumbered. 205 00:14:57,090 --> 00:15:01,570 Speaker 1: MacArthur Wheeler was by no means the only incompetent bank robber. 206 00:15:02,330 --> 00:15:06,330 Speaker 1: One Florida gentleman handed a bank cashier in Delray Beach 207 00:15:06,530 --> 00:15:10,970 Speaker 1: a misspelled note which read a berm, I can blow 208 00:15:11,050 --> 00:15:15,290 Speaker 1: you sky high. The note was passed around the bank staff, 209 00:15:15,890 --> 00:15:20,370 Speaker 1: most of whom were reduced to hysterics foiled, the humiliated 210 00:15:20,450 --> 00:15:24,410 Speaker 1: thief ran away. You don't have to go very far 211 00:15:24,570 --> 00:15:28,490 Speaker 1: to find collections of these bungling incompetence online, but my 212 00:15:28,610 --> 00:15:31,210 Speaker 1: favorite source is an old book by the British writer 213 00:15:31,450 --> 00:15:35,810 Speaker 1: Nigel Blundell, called the World's Most Daring Ragabonds and Villains. 214 00:15:37,130 --> 00:15:40,890 Speaker 1: Some of Blundell's protagonists are smart and ruthless. Some of 215 00:15:40,930 --> 00:15:43,610 Speaker 1: them are so creative and daring as to deserve the 216 00:15:43,650 --> 00:15:48,970 Speaker 1: title of criminal mastermind, but some of them not so much. 217 00:15:49,570 --> 00:15:53,010 Speaker 1: There was the Texas bank robber. This is a sticker. 218 00:15:54,090 --> 00:15:57,810 Speaker 1: The cashier, just twenty years old, replied, you're in the 219 00:15:57,850 --> 00:16:02,410 Speaker 1: wrong line. Please wait over there. He tamely obeyed and 220 00:16:02,650 --> 00:16:07,770 Speaker 1: was still in the line when the police arrived. Burglars 221 00:16:07,970 --> 00:16:13,370 Speaker 1: offer equally compelling examples of incompetence. One French gentleman robbed 222 00:16:13,410 --> 00:16:17,370 Speaker 1: the home of a Parisian antique dealer, having first opted 223 00:16:17,410 --> 00:16:22,730 Speaker 1: to don a suit of fifteenth century armor. The plan was, 224 00:16:23,050 --> 00:16:27,850 Speaker 1: I think, to appear more intimidating. While some men might 225 00:16:27,930 --> 00:16:31,530 Speaker 1: have quailed at the sight and indeed the clattering sound 226 00:16:31,770 --> 00:16:34,650 Speaker 1: of a suit of armor climbing the stairs in the 227 00:16:34,650 --> 00:16:38,210 Speaker 1: middle of the night, the quick witted homeowner shoved the 228 00:16:38,250 --> 00:16:41,930 Speaker 1: intruder down the stairs and then pinned him by pushing 229 00:16:41,930 --> 00:16:46,450 Speaker 1: a heavy antique sideboard over on him. When the police arrived, 230 00:16:46,610 --> 00:16:49,490 Speaker 1: they found that the armor had been sufficiently dented as 231 00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:52,970 Speaker 1: to make it impossible to easily remove, so the miscreant 232 00:16:53,050 --> 00:16:55,810 Speaker 1: had to be fed through his visor until an armorer 233 00:16:55,850 --> 00:17:01,050 Speaker 1: could be found. Another burglar tried to squeeze through a 234 00:17:01,130 --> 00:17:03,730 Speaker 1: skylight into a store in the middle of the night. 235 00:17:04,610 --> 00:17:07,170 Speaker 1: Finding that his clothes were bunching up and getting in 236 00:17:07,210 --> 00:17:10,770 Speaker 1: the way, he removed them, dropped them through the skylight, 237 00:17:11,250 --> 00:17:16,890 Speaker 1: then tried to squirm through after them, as he still 238 00:17:16,970 --> 00:17:21,210 Speaker 1: couldn't quite fit, leaving his clothes inside the store, and 239 00:17:21,330 --> 00:17:26,650 Speaker 1: the burglar buck naked on the roof. By the way, 240 00:17:26,850 --> 00:17:29,050 Speaker 1: I should tell you that while I have sources for 241 00:17:29,090 --> 00:17:31,970 Speaker 1: the other stories, the one about the naked burglar and 242 00:17:32,010 --> 00:17:35,890 Speaker 1: the skylight is one I merely recall reading decades ago, 243 00:17:36,290 --> 00:17:38,690 Speaker 1: and all I really remember is that I laughed until 244 00:17:38,730 --> 00:17:43,610 Speaker 1: I cried. So I googled around trying to find more details, 245 00:17:44,290 --> 00:17:48,010 Speaker 1: and instead I found a much more recent example of 246 00:17:48,050 --> 00:17:52,090 Speaker 1: a naked burglar trapped in a ventilation shaft in Milwaukee, 247 00:17:52,530 --> 00:17:55,530 Speaker 1: again because he felt he would make more progress through 248 00:17:55,570 --> 00:18:00,170 Speaker 1: a narrow space without his garments. I am forced to 249 00:18:00,210 --> 00:18:05,370 Speaker 1: conclude that not only did this actually happen, it happened twice. 250 00:18:07,410 --> 00:18:10,810 Speaker 1: The idiocy isn't always in the crime itself, as one 251 00:18:10,850 --> 00:18:14,530 Speaker 1: criminal suspect proved. He was accused of snatching a purse 252 00:18:14,570 --> 00:18:18,130 Speaker 1: at a shopping center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, in October nineteen 253 00:18:18,170 --> 00:18:22,210 Speaker 1: seventy six. Unwisely, he decided to act as his own 254 00:18:22,330 --> 00:18:26,690 Speaker 1: defense lawyer. Cross examining the victim, he asked, did you 255 00:18:26,730 --> 00:18:28,890 Speaker 1: get a good look at my face when I took 256 00:18:28,930 --> 00:18:33,010 Speaker 1: your purse? The entire court burst out laughing, including the 257 00:18:33,050 --> 00:18:37,570 Speaker 1: robbery victim. If I'd been the one that was there. 258 00:18:40,810 --> 00:18:45,650 Speaker 1: He was promptly found guilty. The spectacular ineptitude of mister 259 00:18:45,810 --> 00:18:49,970 Speaker 1: Lemon Juice MacArthur Wheeler may have inspired Dunning and Krueger, 260 00:18:50,370 --> 00:18:59,850 Speaker 1: but he is not alone. Cautionary tales will return in 261 00:18:59,850 --> 00:19:10,250 Speaker 1: a minute. I love a good story about stupid people 262 00:19:10,290 --> 00:19:14,330 Speaker 1: doing stupid things, but I worry that perhaps we're missing 263 00:19:14,410 --> 00:19:19,130 Speaker 1: something very important about the Dunning Kruger effect. In eighteen 264 00:19:19,210 --> 00:19:23,610 Speaker 1: ninety six, an Austrian doctor named Gabriel Anton stood up 265 00:19:23,650 --> 00:19:27,090 Speaker 1: at a medical conference to discuss some curious cases in 266 00:19:27,170 --> 00:19:32,090 Speaker 1: what we would now call neuroscience. Anton is remembered partly 267 00:19:32,170 --> 00:19:36,690 Speaker 1: in the medical eponym Anton Babinski syndrome. People who suffer 268 00:19:36,770 --> 00:19:41,410 Speaker 1: from Anton Babinsky syndrome are blind, but that's not what's 269 00:19:41,450 --> 00:19:45,930 Speaker 1: strange about this condition. Now. What's strange about people with 270 00:19:46,010 --> 00:19:50,450 Speaker 1: Anton Babinski syndrome is that they don't realize that they 271 00:19:50,490 --> 00:19:55,450 Speaker 1: can't see. Doctor Anton had other examples. There was a 272 00:19:55,490 --> 00:19:59,530 Speaker 1: gentleman who was quite deaf and also quite unaware that 273 00:19:59,570 --> 00:20:03,090 Speaker 1: he was deaf. He knew that he struggled in conversation, 274 00:20:03,250 --> 00:20:07,250 Speaker 1: but his explanations didn't make much sense. For example, he 275 00:20:07,290 --> 00:20:09,890 Speaker 1: blamed background noise for the fact that he couldn't hear 276 00:20:09,930 --> 00:20:13,130 Speaker 1: what people were saying to him. He'd ask people questions 277 00:20:13,490 --> 00:20:15,650 Speaker 1: and didn't seem too worried by the fact that he 278 00:20:15,770 --> 00:20:20,050 Speaker 1: never perceived their answers. Such cases are typically the result 279 00:20:20,130 --> 00:20:23,530 Speaker 1: of damage to the brain itself, resulting in a lack 280 00:20:23,610 --> 00:20:28,210 Speaker 1: of self insight that strains imagination. They're very rare and 281 00:20:28,410 --> 00:20:33,770 Speaker 1: very strange. But I worry that we've come to think 282 00:20:33,770 --> 00:20:36,450 Speaker 1: of the Dunning Kruger effect as a bit like the 283 00:20:36,530 --> 00:20:40,930 Speaker 1: Anton Babinski syndrome, that it's a special kind of disability 284 00:20:41,250 --> 00:20:45,050 Speaker 1: that afflicts a distinct class of clueless idiot, like the 285 00:20:45,130 --> 00:20:49,010 Speaker 1: hapless bank robber, that since you and I, dear listener, 286 00:20:49,050 --> 00:20:53,930 Speaker 1: are not clueless, we are therefore thankfully immune. But Dunning 287 00:20:54,010 --> 00:20:58,370 Speaker 1: Kruger isn't like that at all. Rather, their research paper, 288 00:20:58,890 --> 00:21:03,050 Speaker 1: Unskilled and Unaware of It describes a common truth about 289 00:21:03,090 --> 00:21:07,370 Speaker 1: the way we think. We all lack self insight some 290 00:21:07,530 --> 00:21:11,530 Speaker 1: of the time, and in particular, when we've strayed beyond 291 00:21:11,570 --> 00:21:15,250 Speaker 1: our sphere of competence, we may lack the competence to 292 00:21:15,370 --> 00:21:19,370 Speaker 1: know it. The Dunning Kruger effect isn't just about stupid 293 00:21:19,370 --> 00:21:23,690 Speaker 1: people doing stupid things. It's about clever people doing stupid 294 00:21:23,730 --> 00:21:27,890 Speaker 1: things too, and those clever people may include you and me. 295 00:21:29,010 --> 00:21:32,570 Speaker 1: One example that struck me was the sudden popularity of 296 00:21:32,810 --> 00:21:36,290 Speaker 1: me too on social media, more than a decade after 297 00:21:36,330 --> 00:21:40,650 Speaker 1: being introduced by the activist Tarana Burke. Me too is 298 00:21:40,730 --> 00:21:44,810 Speaker 1: often described as a movement against sexual abuse and sexual harassment, 299 00:21:45,210 --> 00:21:48,570 Speaker 1: which of course it is, but think about what me 300 00:21:48,730 --> 00:21:51,730 Speaker 1: too is really doing. It all went big in late 301 00:21:51,810 --> 00:21:56,250 Speaker 1: twenty seventeen when the actor Alissa Milano encouraged women to 302 00:21:56,330 --> 00:22:00,890 Speaker 1: post me too if they had suffered sexual harassment or assault. 303 00:22:01,730 --> 00:22:04,490 Speaker 1: She wrote, we might give people a sense of the 304 00:22:04,570 --> 00:22:08,090 Speaker 1: magnitude of the problem. She could have written it's time 305 00:22:08,130 --> 00:22:12,050 Speaker 1: that abusers face consequences, or it's time to stop blaming 306 00:22:12,050 --> 00:22:15,490 Speaker 1: women for their own harassment, but she focused like a 307 00:22:15,570 --> 00:22:19,930 Speaker 1: laser on a dunning Kruger issue. Men who thought of 308 00:22:19,970 --> 00:22:24,690 Speaker 1: themselves as decent, considerate, nice guys who had no idea 309 00:22:25,290 --> 00:22:28,330 Speaker 1: what many women were having to deal with. I'd put 310 00:22:28,370 --> 00:22:32,410 Speaker 1: myself squarely in that category. I don't think I'm stupid. 311 00:22:32,570 --> 00:22:35,770 Speaker 1: I don't think lemon juice makes me invisible to cameras. 312 00:22:35,810 --> 00:22:40,370 Speaker 1: But on this point, until Me Too, I didn't begin 313 00:22:40,450 --> 00:22:44,410 Speaker 1: to get it, and that I think was Milano's point. 314 00:22:45,130 --> 00:22:48,370 Speaker 1: Men need to understand how often this is happening to 315 00:22:48,370 --> 00:22:51,770 Speaker 1: the women around them. They don't know what they don't know. 316 00:22:53,330 --> 00:22:55,770 Speaker 1: David Dunning found that he had given birth to an 317 00:22:55,810 --> 00:23:00,250 Speaker 1: academic idea that became a cultural touch point. But Professor 318 00:23:00,290 --> 00:23:03,170 Speaker 1: Dunning has spent the last few years running around telling 319 00:23:03,210 --> 00:23:07,570 Speaker 1: people their misunderstanding the effect. The first rule of the 320 00:23:07,650 --> 00:23:11,050 Speaker 1: Dunning Kruger Club, he told the website Vox, is you 321 00:23:11,090 --> 00:23:14,490 Speaker 1: don't know you remember, and while we're all members, we 322 00:23:14,610 --> 00:23:17,210 Speaker 1: drop in and out of the clubhouse without knowing it. 323 00:23:17,890 --> 00:23:21,690 Speaker 1: As David Dunning wants put it, there's a borderline between 324 00:23:21,690 --> 00:23:24,570 Speaker 1: what we know and what we don't know. And it's 325 00:23:24,610 --> 00:23:27,850 Speaker 1: so easy to cross over that borderline. One moment we 326 00:23:27,930 --> 00:23:30,930 Speaker 1: know what we're doing. The next moment we've strolled into 327 00:23:30,930 --> 00:23:33,650 Speaker 1: the Dunning Kruger Clubhouse, and we still think we know 328 00:23:33,730 --> 00:23:37,010 Speaker 1: what we're doing, but we don't. Any of us can 329 00:23:37,050 --> 00:23:41,610 Speaker 1: step over that threshold at any moment, and like Wiley 330 00:23:41,690 --> 00:23:45,490 Speaker 1: coyote walking over a cliff and standing suspended in mid air, 331 00:23:46,050 --> 00:23:48,890 Speaker 1: it might take a while before we realize that we've 332 00:23:48,890 --> 00:23:55,370 Speaker 1: wandered away from solid ground. Sometimes we know we're unskilled 333 00:23:55,450 --> 00:23:58,890 Speaker 1: or ignorant. I can't play the flute, and I know 334 00:23:58,970 --> 00:24:02,450 Speaker 1: I can't. But very often the failure of skill or 335 00:24:02,530 --> 00:24:06,690 Speaker 1: knowledge goes hand in hand with a failure of self insight. 336 00:24:07,450 --> 00:24:10,890 Speaker 1: We don't know what we don't know. Dunning Kruger isn't 337 00:24:10,930 --> 00:24:16,090 Speaker 1: about stupidity. It's about blind spots. Everyone has blind spots. 338 00:24:16,570 --> 00:24:20,210 Speaker 1: And the thing about blind spots, both literal and metaphorical, 339 00:24:20,810 --> 00:24:24,090 Speaker 1: is that the brain just fills in the gap. We 340 00:24:24,170 --> 00:24:27,610 Speaker 1: don't perceive them as blind spots. We don't perceive them 341 00:24:27,610 --> 00:24:35,850 Speaker 1: at all. There is, of course, a cure for the 342 00:24:35,930 --> 00:24:39,530 Speaker 1: curse of dunning Krueger, and that to ask for advice 343 00:24:40,370 --> 00:24:43,650 Speaker 1: is lemon juice, an invisibility potion as well as an 344 00:24:43,650 --> 00:24:47,370 Speaker 1: invisible ink. MacArthur Wheeler could really have used a second 345 00:24:47,370 --> 00:24:51,050 Speaker 1: opinion on that point, but doing so alas would first 346 00:24:51,090 --> 00:24:54,370 Speaker 1: have required him to doubt his own reasoning on the matter. 347 00:24:54,890 --> 00:24:57,490 Speaker 1: And the problem with Dunning Kruger, remember, is that we 348 00:24:57,530 --> 00:25:00,490 Speaker 1: don't know what we don't know, or whether what we 349 00:25:00,530 --> 00:25:04,890 Speaker 1: don't know is important. But the other reason MacArthur Wheeler 350 00:25:04,970 --> 00:25:07,770 Speaker 1: might have been reluctant to ask for advice is that 351 00:25:07,810 --> 00:25:10,850 Speaker 1: he was planning to commit a crime. He couldn't get 352 00:25:10,890 --> 00:25:13,450 Speaker 1: a second pair of eyes on his plans because his 353 00:25:13,610 --> 00:25:17,130 Speaker 1: plans were illegal. I don't think it's a coincidence that 354 00:25:17,290 --> 00:25:21,770 Speaker 1: so many Dunning Krueger stories are about criminals, because while 355 00:25:21,810 --> 00:25:25,530 Speaker 1: we all find it hard to ask for constructive criticism, 356 00:25:25,690 --> 00:25:30,330 Speaker 1: it's particularly difficult to ask for constructive criticism of your 357 00:25:30,370 --> 00:25:38,170 Speaker 1: plan to rob a bank. But what really worries me 358 00:25:38,530 --> 00:25:42,010 Speaker 1: is the prospect that as a society, we're backing ourselves 359 00:25:42,010 --> 00:25:45,250 Speaker 1: into a place where we can't ask each other for advice. 360 00:25:46,050 --> 00:25:50,290 Speaker 1: Look at politics right now. It's so polarized, so hostile. 361 00:25:50,810 --> 00:25:54,450 Speaker 1: Whatever the Republicans do or say, the Democrats will say, 362 00:25:54,530 --> 00:25:58,210 Speaker 1: it's stupid and evil. Whatever the Democrats do or say, 363 00:25:58,650 --> 00:26:02,010 Speaker 1: the Republicans will say it's stupid and evil. Now, not 364 00:26:02,130 --> 00:26:04,890 Speaker 1: here to wring my hands and call for a return 365 00:26:04,970 --> 00:26:09,090 Speaker 1: to civility and politics and making a very specific point 366 00:26:09,170 --> 00:26:13,290 Speaker 1: about the Dunning Kruger effect. If whatever you do, whatever 367 00:26:13,330 --> 00:26:16,970 Speaker 1: you say, is treated with a howl of protest, there's 368 00:26:17,090 --> 00:26:20,970 Speaker 1: no way for information to flow. When somebody tells you 369 00:26:20,970 --> 00:26:25,210 Speaker 1: you're being stupid, you'll ignore them. You'll ignore them because 370 00:26:25,250 --> 00:26:28,530 Speaker 1: they always say you're stupid. You'll ignore them because for 371 00:26:28,570 --> 00:26:32,610 Speaker 1: good reasons you don't trust them once we only trust 372 00:26:32,610 --> 00:26:36,770 Speaker 1: ourselves and people who think like us. We've abandoned our 373 00:26:36,810 --> 00:26:42,810 Speaker 1: best defense against the Dunning Kruger effect. Just ask Lao Labata. 374 00:26:44,410 --> 00:26:47,930 Speaker 1: It is not enough fuel to good to Australia. Dun't 375 00:26:48,090 --> 00:26:52,730 Speaker 1: lay to us. Of course, it was all fake news 376 00:26:52,770 --> 00:26:56,370 Speaker 1: to them. They didn't know what they didn't know, and 377 00:26:56,410 --> 00:26:59,490 Speaker 1: when he told them, of course, they weren't going to listen. 378 00:27:00,370 --> 00:27:04,770 Speaker 1: I want you to Australia. It is noon on board 379 00:27:05,170 --> 00:27:08,970 Speaker 1: call Australian now unless you want it bad. I am 380 00:27:09,290 --> 00:27:12,130 Speaker 1: not Jockie very well. Please give me the telephone number 381 00:27:12,170 --> 00:27:16,170 Speaker 1: you want me to call Leo. His presence of mind 382 00:27:16,250 --> 00:27:21,850 Speaker 1: is unbelievable. The hijackers flip through the Ethiopia Airways timetable 383 00:27:22,330 --> 00:27:25,250 Speaker 1: until they find the phone number of the Ethiopia Airways 384 00:27:25,330 --> 00:27:29,290 Speaker 1: ticket agent. When they get it, Leol explains that he's 385 00:27:29,330 --> 00:27:31,690 Speaker 1: going to have to route the call via air traffic 386 00:27:31,690 --> 00:27:36,090 Speaker 1: control in Nairobi. He gives air traffic Control his position, 387 00:27:36,570 --> 00:27:40,930 Speaker 1: his heading, and his fuel reading, and then when air 388 00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:43,730 Speaker 1: traffic Control tells him he hasn't got a chance of 389 00:27:43,810 --> 00:27:48,530 Speaker 1: making it to Australia, he agrees. I just wanted our 390 00:27:48,610 --> 00:27:50,890 Speaker 1: hijackers to hear what you are communicating, and if you 391 00:27:50,930 --> 00:27:53,690 Speaker 1: have anything to say, go ahead and tell them. I 392 00:27:53,730 --> 00:27:57,250 Speaker 1: am advising you that with two hours fuel you will 393 00:27:57,250 --> 00:28:00,130 Speaker 1: be unable to reach your destination and he will probably 394 00:28:00,170 --> 00:28:03,130 Speaker 1: douch in the ocean. The best solution for you is 395 00:28:03,130 --> 00:28:06,770 Speaker 1: to lend the ambassa and pick some more fuel. The 396 00:28:06,850 --> 00:28:11,530 Speaker 1: hijackers told him to switch off the radio. Laol had 397 00:28:11,530 --> 00:28:14,890 Speaker 1: been flying south along the coast of Africa, trying to 398 00:28:14,890 --> 00:28:17,090 Speaker 1: make sure he didn't get out of reach of an airport. 399 00:28:17,930 --> 00:28:21,930 Speaker 1: He was ordered again to call Australia and again took 400 00:28:21,930 --> 00:28:25,290 Speaker 1: the opportunity to inform air traffic control of his situation. 401 00:28:26,450 --> 00:28:30,410 Speaker 1: It was the last straw turn, lift flay away from 402 00:28:30,410 --> 00:28:34,810 Speaker 1: the gust. We are going to Australia. Laol was now 403 00:28:34,890 --> 00:28:38,090 Speaker 1: headed towards the Commorous Islands, where he knew there was 404 00:28:38,090 --> 00:28:42,050 Speaker 1: a runway. The plane was almost out of fuel. The 405 00:28:42,130 --> 00:28:45,810 Speaker 1: chief hijacker was sitting next to him, drinking whiskey, messing 406 00:28:45,850 --> 00:28:50,330 Speaker 1: with the controls and kicking the rudder. Laoll pointed to 407 00:28:50,410 --> 00:28:54,690 Speaker 1: the empty fuel gage. The hijacker kept prodding away at 408 00:28:54,690 --> 00:29:00,130 Speaker 1: the controls, with the Commorous Islands in view. Laoll begged 409 00:29:00,250 --> 00:29:05,090 Speaker 1: again to be allowed to land. The right engine ran dry. 410 00:29:06,650 --> 00:29:09,450 Speaker 1: As the lead hijacker got up to talk to his friends, 411 00:29:09,570 --> 00:29:14,050 Speaker 1: Layol grabbed the intercom and warned the passengers, ladies and gentlemen, 412 00:29:14,090 --> 00:29:15,650 Speaker 1: this is your pilot. We have run out of fuel 413 00:29:15,690 --> 00:29:17,530 Speaker 1: and we are losing one engine. This time mean we 414 00:29:17,570 --> 00:29:19,610 Speaker 1: are expecting crash landing in. That is all I have 415 00:29:19,650 --> 00:29:22,050 Speaker 1: to say. We have lost already one engine, and I 416 00:29:22,130 --> 00:29:25,850 Speaker 1: ask all passengers to react to the hijackers. The hijacker 417 00:29:25,890 --> 00:29:28,770 Speaker 1: returned and knocked the microphone out of his hand. Layoll 418 00:29:28,850 --> 00:29:31,930 Speaker 1: descended to try to prevent a store with the hijacker 419 00:29:32,050 --> 00:29:35,450 Speaker 1: screaming at him to maintain altitude. The fuel is gone. 420 00:29:35,610 --> 00:29:40,690 Speaker 1: The engines have no power. If you touched those controls, 421 00:29:40,850 --> 00:29:44,890 Speaker 1: I will kill you. I'm already did, because I am 422 00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,610 Speaker 1: flying in an airplane with odi engine power. The plane 423 00:29:48,730 --> 00:29:51,970 Speaker 1: is gliding down within sight of the shore, but there's 424 00:29:52,010 --> 00:29:55,410 Speaker 1: so little power that only the most basic controls are working. 425 00:29:56,290 --> 00:29:59,210 Speaker 1: The hijacker is still trying to operate the flaps himself 426 00:29:59,250 --> 00:30:02,370 Speaker 1: from the co pilot's seat. He doesn't know, but he 427 00:30:02,410 --> 00:30:07,970 Speaker 1: doesn't know at that moment. First Officer yon Us Mercuria 428 00:30:08,170 --> 00:30:11,530 Speaker 1: forces his way back into the cabin. What do any 429 00:30:11,570 --> 00:30:15,050 Speaker 1: of them have to lose? The cabin now contains Layol 430 00:30:15,170 --> 00:30:19,970 Speaker 1: and Yonas and three drunk hijackers fighting for control of 431 00:30:20,010 --> 00:30:25,570 Speaker 1: a dead airplane. While Yonas wrestles with the attackers, Layol 432 00:30:25,850 --> 00:30:29,890 Speaker 1: wrestles with a plane. Somehow he manages to get her 433 00:30:29,930 --> 00:30:33,490 Speaker 1: down in shallow water. The landing is witnessed by the 434 00:30:33,650 --> 00:30:38,210 Speaker 1: ghast holidaymakers. They're sunbathing on the beach, interrupted by the drama, 435 00:30:38,330 --> 00:30:43,650 Speaker 1: just five hundred yards offshore. The first touch is gentle, 436 00:30:44,290 --> 00:30:48,130 Speaker 1: the left wingtip slicing into the water at about two 437 00:30:48,210 --> 00:30:52,290 Speaker 1: hundred miles per hour. For a moment, it seems like 438 00:30:52,330 --> 00:30:57,730 Speaker 1: the plane might just make it. Then the engine scoops 439 00:30:57,770 --> 00:31:03,330 Speaker 1: into the water, dramatically, slowing the plane. She hits a reef, 440 00:31:06,610 --> 00:31:26,450 Speaker 1: and then she cart wheels breaks apart. Fifty people survive, 441 00:31:27,490 --> 00:31:31,090 Speaker 1: but the dunning Kruger hijack kills one hundred and twenty 442 00:31:31,090 --> 00:31:37,290 Speaker 1: five people, including the hijackers. People who don't know what 443 00:31:37,410 --> 00:31:41,850 Speaker 1: they don't know can be dangerous, and when they refuse 444 00:31:41,970 --> 00:31:45,090 Speaker 1: to listen to what they're being told, when they dismiss 445 00:31:45,130 --> 00:31:56,810 Speaker 1: it as lies and fakery, they can be Deadly. Key 446 00:31:56,850 --> 00:32:01,370 Speaker 1: sources for this episode include Nigel Blunt Deel's The World's 447 00:32:01,490 --> 00:32:05,770 Speaker 1: Most Daring Vagabonds and Villains and an interview with David 448 00:32:05,850 --> 00:32:09,570 Speaker 1: Dunning on the You Are Not So Smart podcast. For 449 00:32:09,690 --> 00:32:14,370 Speaker 1: a full list of references, see Tim Harford dot com. 450 00:32:14,530 --> 00:32:18,370 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. 451 00:32:18,730 --> 00:32:22,210 Speaker 1: It's produced by Ryan Dilley and Marilyn Rust. The sound 452 00:32:22,210 --> 00:32:25,570 Speaker 1: design and original music is the work of Pascal Wise. 453 00:32:26,290 --> 00:32:30,530 Speaker 1: Julia Barton edited the scripts. Starring in this series of 454 00:32:30,570 --> 00:32:36,530 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales Helena Bonham Carter and Jeffrey Wright, alongside Nazar Alderazzi, 455 00:32:37,170 --> 00:32:43,610 Speaker 1: Ed Gochen, Melanie Gutteridge, Rachel Hanshaw, Cobenerholbrook Smith, Greg Lockett, 456 00:32:44,010 --> 00:32:48,490 Speaker 1: Messiam Unrowe, and Rufuss Wright. This show wouldn't have been 457 00:32:48,490 --> 00:32:52,850 Speaker 1: possible without the work of Neil LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fane, 458 00:32:53,210 --> 00:32:58,970 Speaker 1: John Schnarz, Carli mcglory, Eric Sandler, Emily Rostick, Maggie Taylor, 459 00:32:59,370 --> 00:33:04,650 Speaker 1: and Yellow Lakhan and Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a 460 00:33:04,690 --> 00:33:09,450 Speaker 1: production of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please 461 00:33:09,490 --> 00:33:12,490 Speaker 1: remember to rate, share, and review.