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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen, twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty.

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Speaker 4: Kicks, Block Look, College Football World stog.

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, it's stole the lateral to counter the hide, get.

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Speaker 5: You the lad.

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Speaker 2: Table off the fail to night. It's not the sage

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Speaker 2: the game. It's a sage if it fights an.

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Speaker 4: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Network podcast.

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Speaker 4: This is the College Football Betting Preview Week one. I'm

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Speaker 4: stucky and with me as always is Colin Wilson. We

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Speaker 4: have a sort of a slate here to get to

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Speaker 4: you excited.

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Speaker 5: Multiple games on the slate, but it shows you like

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Speaker 5: we have to be prepared for everything, because twenty four

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Speaker 5: hours ago we recorded the ACC and Big twelve previews

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Speaker 5: and today it was just like all hell broke loose,

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Speaker 5: right Like Jamie Newman has opted to sit out for

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Speaker 5: the season, which is wild because Georgia just had their

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Speaker 5: final scrimmages. Newman took the first snaps with the first team.

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Speaker 2: JT.

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Speaker 5: Daniels came afterwards, still got snaps with the first team,

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Speaker 5: but JT. Danilds hasn't even been cleared. So I've seen

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Speaker 5: people on Twitter say, well, obviously Newman wasn't secure for

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Speaker 5: the job.

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Speaker 2: JT.

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Speaker 5: Daniels isn't even clear and Daniels couldn't make.

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Speaker 2: The Cup with all those receivers at USC What.

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Speaker 5: A twenty four hour since you and I just last recorded.

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Speaker 5: I mean, this is gonna be a wild season. One

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Speaker 5: two podcasts a week. I'm not sure that's enough for you,

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Speaker 5: would be they might need to change and I do

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Speaker 5: a live feed somewhere to handicap this shit.

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Speaker 1: College football is getting weird.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we have LSU opt outs, huge major opt outs

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Speaker 4: and UCF opt outs. We'll get to that at the

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Speaker 4: end the first thing. And by the way, if you

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Speaker 4: can still find like a Florida six to one to

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Speaker 4: win the SEC Georgia and LSU opt outs, guess who

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Speaker 4: that helps.

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Speaker 2: What we're gonna do today, we'll get into the FBS games.

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Speaker 4: I think there's four on Saturday of peer FBS matchups,

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Speaker 4: one on Monday night to have some Monday night football.

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Speaker 4: We'll talk some fcs. I mean, there's not there lines out.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, there's not a ton of info we have. Look,

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Speaker 4: there's so much other stuff going on with tennis and baseball,

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Speaker 4: NFL coming up, and like it's so hard to get

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Speaker 4: any info on these FS schools anyway, and then with

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Speaker 4: like COVID, it's not something that I'm rushing to do,

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Speaker 4: but we'll we'll throw out a few nuggets for those.

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Speaker 4: But before we do, I do just want to mention

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Speaker 4: that we have a pro an Action Nework Pro subscription

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Speaker 4: to give out a year long subscription for free. So

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Speaker 4: just go and leave a review as always, subscribe on

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Speaker 4: subscribe tele a friend, tell on enemy. You guys are

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Speaker 4: the reason that we've had so much success. Won a

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Speaker 4: award got sponsored by BETTMGM. We'll give out a free

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Speaker 4: pro subscription. Just go leave a review and say it's

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Speaker 4: the number one podcast for sports. Better leave your Twitter

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Speaker 4: handle on there and our producer will pick a winner

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Speaker 4: by the end of day on Friday. And as always,

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Speaker 4: if you haven't already, make sure you download the Action app.

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Speaker 4: You can follow our picks on there and all of

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Speaker 4: our content all right, So let's dive right in to

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Speaker 4: Saturday Slate.

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Speaker 1: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 1: the marquee matchups we'll all end up betting.

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Speaker 5: For Week one.

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Speaker 4: There are four FBS games. The first one, well, I

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Speaker 4: am extremely excited for because it involves a service academy

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Speaker 4: and that is Middle Tennessee State at Army one thirty

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Speaker 4: Eastern on CBS Sports Network. This line as Army minus five.

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Speaker 4: I think it's come down to three at BETMGM and

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Speaker 4: I took some three and a half on Middle Tennessee State.

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Speaker 4: I have to do this like every year with the

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Speaker 4: first time we talk about service academies. I am not

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Speaker 4: a huge trend player. I don't really care about trends.

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Speaker 4: I don't care about you know, what a team wearing

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Speaker 4: red helmets does on a weekday after playing a team

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Speaker 4: with black helmets if there's no causation, I don't care

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Speaker 4: about the correlation. But the one trends I always follow

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Speaker 4: are the ones in regards to service academies. And we

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Speaker 4: will talk about the unders, you know unders when two

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Speaker 4: service academies play each other, but that's not relevant this week.

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Speaker 4: Generally speaking, service academy teams are very good bets as underdogs,

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Speaker 4: especially you know, as the spread rises and not great

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Speaker 4: bets as favorites, especially double digit favorites. Air Force, Army

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Speaker 4: and Navy as underdogs since two thousand and five, one

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Speaker 4: hundred and thirty two one hundred and sixteen against the

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Speaker 4: spread about fifty three point two percent. As favorites, they

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Speaker 4: are one hundred and twenty one, one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 4: one and five forty four and a half percent double

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Speaker 4: digit favorites, even lower at forty two point seven percent.

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Speaker 4: Army is since two thousand and five, out of one

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Speaker 4: hundred and fifty one teams in our beta database, they're

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Speaker 4: the worst team against the spread as a favorite of

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Speaker 4: a field goal or more, they're eighteen thirty three and two.

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Speaker 2: It's about thirty five percent.

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Speaker 4: Against the spread, failing to cover by an average of

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Speaker 4: about three points per game. That's negative thirty one percent ROI.

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Speaker 4: So why are they such good bets as one hundred

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Speaker 4: dolling is not as favorites. They're model breakers. These teams

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Speaker 4: are model breakers. And you say, why hasn't the market

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Speaker 4: adjusted to all these service academy trend Well, a lot

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Speaker 4: of people with their models, they're incapable of pricing these

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Speaker 4: service academies correctly because look, all these advanced stats out there,

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Speaker 4: success rate, yards per play, all these things that you

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Speaker 4: go anything. It doesn't really apply to Army, Navy, and

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Speaker 4: Air Force, because if you're gaining three yards on first down.

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Speaker 2: It's not that's good, that's okay for service guy.

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Speaker 4: I mean when you're going for it on fourth to

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Speaker 4: fourth and one, fourth and two every time, no matter

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Speaker 4: where you are, So it's and then you know they're

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Speaker 4: obviously they have the ball forever. The time possessions using

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Speaker 4: the clock is just running and running and running. So

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Speaker 4: it's very hard to cover as a larger favorite in

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Speaker 4: this game, in particular Middle Tennessee State, they have ash O'Hara,

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Speaker 4: dual threat quarterback coming back, They have a lot returning

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Speaker 4: on offense, and I think that they can take advantage

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Speaker 4: of a pretty suspect Army defense that lost its leading

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Speaker 4: tackler linebacker and Christensen and its best cornerback in Riley.

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Speaker 4: They don't get any pressure either, zero pressure. And on

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Speaker 4: the other side of the ball, Army on offense, you know,

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Speaker 4: obviously they're just going to run the ball.

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Speaker 2: That's what they do.

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Speaker 4: You know, Jabari Laws is their best quarterback on the roster,

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Speaker 4: but he's not cleared yet so it looks like it's

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Speaker 4: going to be Christian Anderson. Kelvin Hopkins is no longer around.

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Speaker 4: They lost a lot on this offense. There's questions about

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Speaker 4: the offensive line. Reports out of the Army camp have

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Speaker 4: not been positive. And obviously they lost spring. They lost

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Speaker 4: summer preparation, which really hurts a team like that that

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Speaker 4: has to be coached up, and repetition helps. And on

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Speaker 4: the other side of the ball, Middle Tennessee State they

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Speaker 4: you know, they're gonna have more time to prepare for

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Speaker 4: the triple option now.

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Speaker 2: They thought they were gonna play Duke first, and.

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Speaker 4: They installed a game plan, and then Troy and then

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Speaker 4: they installed a game plan and then it ended up

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Speaker 4: being Army, but they still had, you know, close to

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Speaker 4: a month they prepare for this. And that's the key

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Speaker 4: to defending the option. You need repetition, and you need

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Speaker 4: because you need to be fundamentally sound. So the more

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Speaker 4: times you can see it and practice against it, there

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Speaker 4: better you know, Especially if you see the option a

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Speaker 4: couple times in the year, but if you have a

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Speaker 4: bye week before you play an option team, or if

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Speaker 4: you're playing in Week one and Army's just four and

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Speaker 4: eleven against the spread over the last fifteen years. In

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Speaker 4: their season opener, Middle Tennessee State, The thing that jumps

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Speaker 4: out to me is their defense could not defend the pass,

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Speaker 4: could not get any pressure at all. They do have

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Speaker 4: excellent safeties, they have some decent linebackers will get blanket.

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Speaker 4: Ship Back is a star at safety. So I think

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Speaker 4: that they're going to come up and help in their

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Speaker 4: run game. But Army can't really take advantage of Middle

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Speaker 4: Tennessee's biggest weakness, which is their pass defense. It's their

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Speaker 4: secondary and it's their pass rush. If you don't have

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Speaker 4: those two things, it doesn't really hurt against Army. So

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Speaker 4: I took the three and a half. I'd take anything

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Speaker 4: at three or above. I think this is a coin flip,

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Speaker 4: and Army the secondary and their offense. They might be

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Speaker 4: in trouble. Their offense might struggle early. There's a lot

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Speaker 4: going on at Army. What are your thoughts here?

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm kicking myself for not taking the opener of five,

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Speaker 5: but it's you know, it's usually an auto play. When

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Speaker 5: I see an opener of five and my numbers at

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Speaker 5: one and a half. That's when a couple weeks into

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Speaker 5: the season and I trust the power ratings a bunch more.

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Speaker 5: And plus, when you're betting on Army football, it's not

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Speaker 5: just a regular handicap. I mean, you have to go

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Speaker 5: in and see how it is in the trenches. And

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Speaker 5: that's where I got a little bit nervous about backing

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Speaker 5: Middle Tennessee State.

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Speaker 2: They have lost.

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Speaker 5: You know, some players on d they're anchored by their

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Speaker 5: linebacker d Q Thomas. He was second in tackles with

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Speaker 5: fifty four O their defensive tackle Poiters is going to

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Speaker 5: be back. He made twenty three of twenty four possible

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Speaker 5: tackles on two hundred and ninety five plays last year.

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Speaker 5: So they have a little bit of experience, you know,

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Speaker 5: in between the tackles as far as playing defense. But

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Speaker 5: there's a video floating out there a stock Still after

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Speaker 5: you know, coach stock Still right after a practice saying

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Speaker 5: we had Duke scheduled, we had a game plan for Duke,

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Speaker 5: and we haven't seen the triple option since twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 5: I was like, it's a big undertaking for him and

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Speaker 5: his DC to get these guys ready for the triple option.

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Speaker 5: And so that I laid off the five a little bit,

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Speaker 5: and by the time it started moving, I thought, well,

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Speaker 5: maybe I need to visit and see whatever is going

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Speaker 5: on with the Army team, you know, because middle's biggest

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Speaker 5: weakness and you mentioned it is getting to the quarterback.

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Speaker 5: They were one hundred and thirtieth last year and sacrate

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Speaker 5: doesn't matter here. I mean, you don't need a sacarate

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Speaker 5: the play Army. They were one hundred and sixth in

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Speaker 5: havoc the I mean they were terrible against the run,

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Speaker 5: you know, So on the Army side. Monkin had an

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Speaker 5: interview I think it was posted to the Army Twitter handle,

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Speaker 5: and he said specifically, no spring practice camp workouts were

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Speaker 5: later than usual. Are schedule has been changing. I'm displeased

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Speaker 5: with the false starts and the offensive focus that we've

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Speaker 5: had in camps. And that made me go back to

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Speaker 5: think about what Army is as an offensive line, because

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Speaker 5: if you look at this offensive line, they're searching for

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Speaker 5: not only a new quarterback, they only have two their

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Speaker 5: center and their right tackle returning. And the way that

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Speaker 5: they're practicing, if you go a little bit deeper into

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Speaker 5: the way they're practicing, they're not Their offensive linemen are

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Speaker 5: not lining up like next to each other, they're not

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Speaker 5: shoulder to shoulder. And when you run a triple option offense,

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Speaker 5: every all five offensive linemen have to be in sync.

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Speaker 5: They have to be stepping the right way. If there's

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Speaker 5: a trap, you have to be able to have a

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Speaker 5: polling guard. They're hitting blocking dummies, they're running at rolling tires,

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Speaker 5: and Monkin says specifically, we haven't done that because if

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Speaker 5: somebody comes down with COVID, anybody they've had contact with

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Speaker 5: in practice has to set out too. So he's protected

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Speaker 5: the entire team. But that hurts the triple option offense.

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Speaker 5: So huge advantage here for Middle Tennessee and for Ashu o'haro,

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Speaker 5: who's going to be the star of this game. He

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Speaker 5: is the going to be the best player on this field.

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Speaker 5: Army's defense last year, I mean they have to return

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Speaker 5: a lot. They're returning production wise, you know, forty fourth

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Speaker 5: and returning production on defense, they were seventy eighth and

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Speaker 5: success rate. I think that their secondary could absolutely get torched.

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Speaker 5: Army was one hundred and twentieth and havoc last year,

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Speaker 5: not taking the ball away, not getting tackles, not giving

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Speaker 5: any getting any sacks, one hundred first and defensive passing

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Speaker 5: and EPA. They allow explosive plays, and that's all Asher

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Speaker 5: O'Hara is. He gets all his big threats back. He

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Speaker 5: gets Jared Pierce back, Jimmy Marshall, Zach Dobson, CJ Windham,

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Speaker 5: chiselm sixty five percent of his deep threats, he gets

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Speaker 5: them all back. Specifically, Jimmy Jared Pierce was O'Hara's like

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Speaker 5: third down go to guy, most targeted guy. Twenty one

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Speaker 5: percent of targets on third down was to Pierce. You know,

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Speaker 5: Army was one hundred and seventeenth in sacrate. Ash O'Hara

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Speaker 5: is going to be able to do what he wants.

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Speaker 5: He's going to be able to throw downfield. And this

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Speaker 5: Army offense, we're gonna fade him this week, and then

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Speaker 5: we're gonna look at him against the ul Ulm team

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Speaker 5: next week that just had the defense as a coordinator,

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Speaker 5: you know, step aside and basically leave himself of the position,

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Speaker 5: retire for personal stuff. So Armies have fade this week,

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Speaker 5: we'll look to back up next week.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, oher, he can move too.

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Speaker 4: He can get a lot of yards on the ground,

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Speaker 4: but if Army just doesn't get much natural pressure, he's

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Speaker 4: gonna have time back there Army's really gonna miss Elijah Riley,

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Speaker 4: their senior cornerback. He's now on an NFL roster. He

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Speaker 4: might end up being a safety for the Eagles this year.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, I just think, Look, I know they've had

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Speaker 4: to go through two game plans, but they've had extra

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Speaker 4: time to prepare for the option, and Army can't take

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Speaker 4: advantage of Middle Tennessee's weakness on defense, and Army just

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Speaker 4: has questions all over. They may struggle early, and I

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Speaker 4: like what Middle Tennessee has returned, So I'll take I

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Speaker 4: think this is a coin flip game, so I'll take

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Speaker 4: the points.

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Speaker 2: Anything in a field goal or above.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the second game on Saturday,

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Speaker 4: four thirty Eastern on ESPN. SMU twenty two point favorite

265
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Speaker 4: at bet MGM, the official odds of the Action Nework

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Speaker 4: Podcast over under sitting up around seventy. It's risen a

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Speaker 4: couple points from its open. Yeah, we know what SMU

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Speaker 4: wants to do. They want to go extremely fast and

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Speaker 4: they're gonna put out points. They're gonna put up a

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Speaker 4: lot of points against this defense. They were one of

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Speaker 4: only four teams in the country last year to average

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Speaker 4: over eighty plays per game, along with Tulsa, Wake Forest

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Speaker 4: and Syracuse. Look, Texas State, these are your boys, or

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Speaker 4: were your boys. Then they became my boys for a

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Speaker 4: couple weeks and just burned me over and over again.

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Speaker 4: There's your boy, Vitt Nation. He's no longer the starter.

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Speaker 4: He lost the quarterback competition to Brady McBride. Transfer from Memphis,

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Speaker 4: and we'll talk about Memphis here shortly. Does Texas State

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Speaker 4: do the bobs your bob's have any shot of hanging

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Speaker 4: in here early?

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Speaker 2: What do you see?

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Speaker 5: According to the advanced stats, they have no shot. SMU

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Speaker 5: seventy five percent returning production on offense, and I would

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Speaker 5: assume that all twenty five percent that's missing from that

285
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Speaker 5: offense is James Proschet, So you know, Bouchelle is still there,

286
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Speaker 5: all the other receivers are still there. This team can

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Speaker 5: go as fast as they want to go. I don't

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Speaker 5: think there's going to be any resistance in the Texas

289
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Speaker 5: State secondary, which I mean they suffered pretty big from

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Speaker 5: returning production this year. Right now, they had fifty nine

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Speaker 5: percent returning on offense. They have thirty two percent returning

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Speaker 5: on defense. That is one of the lowest in all

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Speaker 5: of FBS maybe outside of like Utah. On defense, that's

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Speaker 5: about where Texas State is. You know, success rate Texas

295
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Speaker 5: State was one hundred and twenty six and success rate

296
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Speaker 5: on offense a lot of that was VIT's issue, Gresh's issue.

297
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Speaker 5: You know, one hundred and sixth on success rate on

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Speaker 5: the defensive side, those numbers are not going to hold

299
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Speaker 5: up against an SMU team that should be locked and

300
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Speaker 5: loaded and ready to go. I mean, if you look

301
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Speaker 5: at some of the advanced stats from last year, there's

302
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Speaker 5: everything with Texas State has read everything is below one

303
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,120
Speaker 5: hundred and fifteenth out of one hundred and thirty teams.

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Speaker 5: You look at SMU, they were fourth last year and

305
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Speaker 5: seconds per play Sunday Dykes is going to get up there.

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Speaker 5: Trust me, by the time SMU gets to the following

307
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Speaker 5: week and they're playing TCU. He wants them like a

308
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Speaker 5: well oiled machine. He wants them. He doesn't need any

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Speaker 5: interruptions to this whatsoever. You know, I EXPECTSMU to put

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Speaker 5: up as many points as possible. Power rating wise, I

311
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Speaker 5: had this at twenty two, so I never saw any value.

312
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Speaker 5: I think even if this gets to twenty fourth, SMU

313
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Speaker 5: is one of those teams last year where the point

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Speaker 5: spread was about correct when we would podcast on it

315
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Speaker 5: on Thursday. By the time Saturday morning came around, the

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Speaker 5: thing would steam three points through dead numbers. And I

317
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Speaker 5: don't see any reason why this won't happen again on

318
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Speaker 5: Saturday morning. The question is is what numbers are going

319
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Speaker 5: to take for you to bite with a Texas State

320
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Speaker 5: team that's completely replacing a defense and lost to this

321
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Speaker 5: SMU team by thirty last year. And here's the thing, like,

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Speaker 5: if you're getting a little froggy and you think that

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Speaker 5: you want to take an underdog with Texas State last year,

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Speaker 5: they lost by thirty and SMU had three turnovers, right,

325
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Speaker 5: I mean SMU gave him three turnovers and they still

326
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Speaker 5: beat the Bobs by thirty. So I don't think there's

327
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Speaker 5: a number here that's going to get me to buy

328
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Speaker 5: on Texas State. Are you kidding me? Texas State?

329
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Speaker 4: They haven't had a sunblot win so fifteen the state.

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Speaker 5: Now, what I am interested in is using guards per play,

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Speaker 5: using pace, using you know, a few other advanced metrics.

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Speaker 5: My total for this, if this would have been played

333
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Speaker 5: at the end of last year was around fifty nine,

334
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Speaker 5: So that number that's out there right now. I believe,

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Speaker 5: you know per bet MGM sixty nine and a half

336
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Speaker 5: on the total. Is Texas State going to be able

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Speaker 5: to do their job to get over that total? I

338
00:16:35,120 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 5: think that's the question here. Is Texas State going to

339
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:38,640
Speaker 5: be able to put points on the board. If they are,

340
00:16:38,760 --> 00:16:40,520
Speaker 5: this is going to fly over the total because SMU

341
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Speaker 5: is going to run plays as fast as they can

342
00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:46,040
Speaker 5: and have explosive passes as many times as they can throw.

343
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Speaker 5: For me, this is an underplay on the total, especially

344
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Speaker 5: if we get some steam. I don't see how Texas

345
00:16:52,880 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 5: State does their part to score their points against this

346
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Speaker 5: SMU defense. It's a no play on the spread. Its

347
00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 5: going to be, you know, everything for me is going

348
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 5: to be on the total. Probably an under and that's

349
00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 5: really just a fate of the fact that I don't

350
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:08,440
Speaker 5: think Texas State can score their share of the line

351
00:17:08,840 --> 00:17:09,399
Speaker 5: of the points.

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Speaker 4: The one thing that gives me hesitation about that is

353
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Speaker 4: we know that SMU is going to fly right and

354
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Speaker 4: they're going to go fast, and they're going to put

355
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Speaker 4: up points against this defense. When Spavadal first got the

356
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,440
Speaker 4: Texas State we believed that they were going to try

357
00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:24,240
Speaker 4: and go and I know every coach says this, but

358
00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:26,480
Speaker 4: they were going to try and go more up tempo,

359
00:17:26,840 --> 00:17:31,680
Speaker 4: but they really couldn't because their quarterback play was so bad.

360
00:17:32,200 --> 00:17:35,000
Speaker 4: When your quarterback play is really bad and then your defense,

361
00:17:35,320 --> 00:17:37,840
Speaker 4: you know, your offense is going three and out and

362
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:40,199
Speaker 4: then you're punting the ball right back to the other

363
00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 4: team and your defense to come on the field and

364
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,800
Speaker 4: your defense is just getting worn down. You have to

365
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,359
Speaker 4: slow up on offense. Even if you want to go faster.

366
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Speaker 4: What is the offense going to look like under Brady McBride.

367
00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:52,359
Speaker 4: Is it going to be a functional offense? If it is,

368
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 4: maybe they can go faster and show more tempo. We

369
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Speaker 4: know that SMU is going to go really fast. That's

370
00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:02,360
Speaker 4: the only thing that gives me a little pause. But yeah,

371
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 4: I mean this is this looks to me like a

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00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 4: stay away. But I couldn't fault you for taking an

373
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Speaker 4: under this high. With a lot of questions about the

374
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Speaker 4: Texas State offense, even.

375
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,399
Speaker 5: If Texas State, you know, they were forty fourth and

376
00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,720
Speaker 5: seconds per play, so you know, I know, I know

377
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:20,120
Speaker 5: Spavotol coming from West Virginia, I know that he wants

378
00:18:20,160 --> 00:18:23,159
Speaker 5: to run a higher pace, but they were you know

379
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 5: their success rate on offense, there were one hundred and

380
00:18:25,080 --> 00:18:27,639
Speaker 5: twenty eighth and rushing success and one hundred and passing success.

381
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Speaker 5: It's just it's not good. And havoc allowed they were

382
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 5: one hundred and eighteenth. So anytime they try to get

383
00:18:31,680 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 5: cute with the ball, and we know that from having

384
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 5: plenty of money on Tyler Vitt that that ball seemed Yeah,

385
00:18:37,600 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 5: it's just pick six cities.

386
00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:39,720
Speaker 2: So I don't know if.

387
00:18:39,880 --> 00:18:41,320
Speaker 5: I'll get a play into that. I'm not sure how

388
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,080
Speaker 5: much money I'm gonna get invested on the under. I

389
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 5: just think in the seventies is going to be a

390
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 5: little bit too high for a Texas State team. So maybe,

391
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,040
Speaker 5: you know, maybe the whole you know one Benjamin Franklin,

392
00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 5: throw at it and just have a good time with

393
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:56,320
Speaker 5: that and maybe parlay it into a Kentucky Derby bet.

394
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

395
00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:00,440
Speaker 4: Well, that game is at four point thirty Eastern. That

396
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,240
Speaker 4: is the last afternoon game between FBS teams. We do

397
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 4: have one at night between Arkansas State and Memphis at MGM.

398
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 4: This line is sitting at Memphis minus nineteen and a half.

399
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 4: The over has risen quite a bit here, sitting around

400
00:19:14,080 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 4: seventy four ish, so when you look at Memphis the

401
00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,040
Speaker 4: first look we were talking about breaking news. One of

402
00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:23,720
Speaker 4: the best running backs in the country decided to opt

403
00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 4: out and Kenneck Gamewell. This is still a very, very

404
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 4: capable offense with Brady White at quarterback through for what

405
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 4: four thousand yards? You know, they lost some They lost

406
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,560
Speaker 4: Antonio Gibson and they lost their tight end, but they

407
00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 4: still have Coxie at wide receiver. This is an offense

408
00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:49,119
Speaker 4: that still should put up points. The defense also returns

409
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:53,880
Speaker 4: a lot, but they are going through a transition under

410
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 4: Mike McIntyre and basically the entire they went through a

411
00:19:58,040 --> 00:20:03,440
Speaker 4: coaching change and the entire defensive staff was revamped, and

412
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 4: last year they ran a four to three Mike mctaire

413
00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:08,280
Speaker 4: is a three to four guy through and through, and

414
00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,840
Speaker 4: he says, hey, we're gonna my defense is gonna be multiple.

415
00:20:10,880 --> 00:20:13,359
Speaker 4: Every coordinator says that, and yeah, it'll be multiple depending

416
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 4: on who they're playing and down in distance. But this

417
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 4: is a three to four base. I don't know if

418
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,920
Speaker 4: it necessarily fits Memphis defensive roster. You do bring a

419
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 4: lot back, but it's going to three four. I don't

420
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,080
Speaker 4: know if they have the size up front for the

421
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:30,720
Speaker 4: three down Lineman. I mean, I I'm not sure how

422
00:20:30,720 --> 00:20:32,200
Speaker 4: it's gonna fit now. They do have a ton of

423
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 4: edge rushers that should thrive in this system. They're gonna

424
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:40,760
Speaker 4: go against an Arkansas State offense that can put up points,

425
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 4: and you have Logan Bonner coming back from injury. He

426
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 4: is going to start, but they say that Hatcher's going

427
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,320
Speaker 4: to get in and he was successful to last year.

428
00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:50,200
Speaker 2: They do lose.

429
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:52,120
Speaker 4: They do lose Omar Bellis, who's one of the best

430
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 4: receivers in the country last year, but they still have

431
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:54,760
Speaker 4: a lot of weapons.

432
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:58,479
Speaker 2: They return their leading rusher. Offensive line was awful last year,

433
00:20:58,560 --> 00:20:58,840
Speaker 2: but they do.

434
00:20:58,920 --> 00:21:01,520
Speaker 4: Return all five starter up front, so you think maybe

435
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 4: that unit can be a little better. They're gonna put

436
00:21:04,400 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 4: up points. I make this line around seventeen and with

437
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,639
Speaker 4: gain Well opting out, I mean I'd deduct half a

438
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 4: point to a point from Memphis. I mean, he's that good.

439
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 4: There might be some growing pains early in this new

440
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 4: defensive scheme for Memphis. So at nineteen nineteen and a half,

441
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 4: I kind of like the Red Wolves here. Their defense

442
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,640
Speaker 4: is bad. I'm not going to sit here and say

443
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 4: it's not. What do you see here in this game?

444
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I projected this game at nineteen and that's where

445
00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:35,679
Speaker 5: the spread has been most of the week. So there

446
00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 5: really hasn't been an edge for me as far as

447
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 5: you know, that department goes looking at the you know,

448
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:43,960
Speaker 5: some of the advanced stats on seconds per play, Arkansas

449
00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:45,760
Speaker 5: State is the one that's going to push tempo. People

450
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 5: seem to think that Memphis is, you know, an over

451
00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,120
Speaker 5: team and that all their games are in the seventies,

452
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 5: but you would actually be a little bit surprised to

453
00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:57,440
Speaker 5: find out that Memphis actually is i think in the

454
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 5: fifties around plays per game, and they're actually seconds per

455
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 5: play is around mid of FBS. So it's just that

456
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,439
Speaker 5: they're highly explosive, that's the problem. It's not that they

457
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,639
Speaker 5: rush up to the line, they actually burn a lot

458
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 5: of clock. They're just extremely explosive. So to look at

459
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,719
Speaker 5: these teams, you know, let's just we'll dive to dive

460
00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:19,360
Speaker 5: right into it. Arkansas State, they're seventy seven percent offenses

461
00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 5: returning and they weir eighty third success rate and they

462
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,800
Speaker 5: only have half their defense returning same thing about seventy

463
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:28,119
Speaker 5: nineth and success rate. Memphis had a top twenty success

464
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 5: rate team on offense they returned sixty nine percent, but

465
00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 5: that's obviously a lot lower without game Well, and they

466
00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 5: were top forty and success rate on defense. People don't

467
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 5: give Memphis enough credit for, especially in games against Cincinnati,

468
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 5: about the havoc they were able to put on to

469
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 5: the Bearcats, and they returned seventy seven percent of that defense.

470
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 5: So you know, Gainwell accounted. He was very important in

471
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 5: that offense. And to Brady White, he accounted for thirty

472
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,400
Speaker 5: eight targets on third down, more than any other player

473
00:22:54,440 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 5: and it wasn't even close. You know, Arkansas State's d

474
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 5: was twenty seventh in defensive pass EPA. That was like

475
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 5: the only thing on defense they were good at. It

476
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 5: was stopping explosive passing. So maybe that plays a factor

477
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:10,080
Speaker 5: here a little bit. But you know, the Memphis passing

478
00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 5: attack was fifth last year in passing EPA. So they're

479
00:23:12,600 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 5: highly explosive offense, and like I said, Arkansas State's gonna

480
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 5: push tempo. One thing that bothers me about Arkansas State

481
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 5: is they were one hundred and twenty first defensive finishing drives.

482
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 5: That's just not a stat for twenty nineteen. Like every year,

483
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,719
Speaker 5: they are terrible in defensive finishing drives. Memphis is going

484
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,320
Speaker 5: to score at will when they get past the forty

485
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,840
Speaker 5: yard line. And Arkansas State themselves on offense, we're thirty

486
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:36,479
Speaker 5: fifth and finishing drives. So when you see the steam

487
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 5: on the total go up, you know in the mid seventies,

488
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 5: there's a good reason for that. Arkansas State's going to

489
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 5: push tempo, and both these teams are excellent and finishing

490
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 5: drives once they get to the forty yard line.

491
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 2: So also two really good kickers in this game.

492
00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 5: And yeah, yeah, I was going to get to the

493
00:23:49,880 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 5: special teams. Have special teams returns everybody, and they're coached

494
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,880
Speaker 5: by probably one of the best special teams former head

495
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 5: coach in the mac Pete Limbo. You know, they were

496
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 5: top ten and field goal efficiency, kickoff efficiency, kick return efficiency,

497
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 5: all those numbers per football Outsiders. Memphis is gonna be

498
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,320
Speaker 5: able to do it at once on special teams. They

499
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,520
Speaker 5: should have great field position all game, and you know,

500
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,159
Speaker 5: you look at Arkansas State. They were one hundred and

501
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 5: twenty six and kickoff efficiency last year. So field position

502
00:24:14,600 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 5: game is going to be won by Memphis. I expect

503
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 5: this to be a lightning quick game. I hate to

504
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:21,439
Speaker 5: come on this pod and tell people to take an

505
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,479
Speaker 5: over when a total is where it is. But at

506
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,560
Speaker 5: the same time, there's just no way I'm taking an

507
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:28,919
Speaker 5: under in this game. Bet MGM right now is at

508
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 5: seventy three and a half. I just don't know what

509
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 5: number I would be taking it under here because these

510
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 5: two teams want to push it. From a spread perspective,

511
00:24:37,320 --> 00:24:38,000
Speaker 5: I think it's dead on.

512
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 4: I mean, I make this seventeen and then you lose

513
00:24:40,320 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 4: gain well, if this game is like Memphis by twenty

514
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:45,480
Speaker 4: one or twenty four at the end, I mean, and

515
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: you have Arkansas State with the ball, major major backdoor

516
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 4: risking this game. If you're betting this game, you're if

517
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 4: you're betting Arcisas State, you're not saying they're gonna stop Memphis.

518
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,119
Speaker 4: You're saying that. And I know they lost Bailis, they

519
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 4: lost Merritt. They bring back Adams and they have capable receivers.

520
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:05,200
Speaker 4: You know, they bring back Marriott at running back, and

521
00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 4: these are five upperclassmen returning starters in the offensive lines.

522
00:25:07,960 --> 00:25:09,960
Speaker 4: You would think that they're going to get a little better.

523
00:25:10,400 --> 00:25:13,320
Speaker 4: I think that they can score enough with Memphis to

524
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 4: get in with his number. And again, Memphis might have

525
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 4: some growing pains with this new defense, whole new defensive

526
00:25:19,080 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 4: staff and switching to a three to four base which

527
00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:24,600
Speaker 4: I don't necessarily think fits the roster. I know they

528
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 4: bring return a lot of production, but that's something to watch.

529
00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 4: I think both changes on both defenses. Arkansas State it

530
00:25:30,920 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 4: might help them a little bit, and then on Memphis

531
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,320
Speaker 4: you might see some growing pains early on.

532
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,760
Speaker 5: All Right, you don't think do you don't think live

533
00:25:39,800 --> 00:25:41,640
Speaker 5: this is a game. You're probably gonna get Arkansas State

534
00:25:41,680 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 5: at twenty eight, You're gonna get Memphis maybe at eleven

535
00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 5: or fourteen. I mean, it just feels like a game

536
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,159
Speaker 5: you could sit back and pick your shots on these

537
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 5: two teams and get a good ten to fourteen point

538
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 5: window on a live point spread with these guys.

539
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a probably good trading game.

540
00:25:54,960 --> 00:25:55,159
Speaker 5: I mean.

541
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,879
Speaker 4: The other thing is that, well, I don't want to

542
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 4: bet too much on any of these games, especially early

543
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 4: on as we're learning about Okay, what is this? What

544
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:03,679
Speaker 4: is COVID information? Now?

545
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 2: Is this all going to work?

546
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 4: There's gonna be a lot of line moves. But you know,

547
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 4: also in baseball, we saw now there could have been

548
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 4: some changes with the ball, and there was some humid doors,

549
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 4: but the pitchers were The pitchers were way ahead of

550
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 4: the hitters for multiple reasons early on. So the question

551
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 4: here that we're asking is, and you hear, you'll hear

552
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 4: different opinions. Are offenses or defenses going to be ahead

553
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 4: of the curve. We don't really have any sample size

554
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 4: to golf. We have one shit fest of an FCS

555
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: game and the offenses looked really bad. There was a

556
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:40,919
Speaker 4: what Central Arkansas quarterback we set records last year, couldn't

557
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 4: complete a forward pass most of the game. So but

558
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 4: but also you can make the argument that defenses are

559
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 4: going to struggle to tackle right and tackling is going

560
00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 4: to be rusty. So then do we see even more shootouts?

561
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 4: Or is the execution on offense or the quarterbacks off?

562
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,680
Speaker 4: Is the timing off? I don't know the answer to

563
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 4: this question, but it's something that well, we'll start to see.

564
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 4: And I think that whatever the answer is, whether it's

565
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 4: defenses are rustier or offenses are rustier, relatively speaking to

566
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 4: the other, it's going to persist longer into the season

567
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 4: than normal with like these shortened workouts and you know

568
00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 4: COVID disruptions. So that's something that I'm just watching every

569
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 4: game for to try to get a read on, which

570
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 4: makes it difficult to really lay down money, especially early

571
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 4: on when you don't know half the started quarterback could

572
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:24,400
Speaker 4: be out with COVID the day of the game.

573
00:27:24,760 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 5: Well, conditioning too, I think you need to take conditioning, yeah,

574
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 5: as something here. And if you're looking at the games

575
00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:33,160
Speaker 5: this weekend, you know Army it's going to be eighty degrees,

576
00:27:33,720 --> 00:27:35,840
Speaker 5: Texas State it's going to be ninety four. But that's

577
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 5: fine for both s ME and Texas State they practice

578
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 5: in it. And for Memphis it's going to be esteem

579
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 5: the eighty five. So you know we'll check out. Can

580
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 5: you know third fourth quarter games might slow down, you know,

581
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 5: first game of the season. Conditioning is a factor.

582
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean that's and again I've stressed this a

583
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 4: lot about teams with a lot of returning production, continuity

584
00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 4: and scheme, quarterback coaching staff. But that also I don't

585
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,639
Speaker 4: factor there is if you have a lot of like

586
00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 4: upper classmen and returning starters. When we didn't have spring

587
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 4: practices and shortened summer prep and all that, the onus,

588
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,120
Speaker 4: a lot of the onus falls on the individual players

589
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 4: to go out there, work out stay up, stay in shape,

590
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 4: you know, study and teams that have a lot of

591
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 4: returning starts that already know the system that are upperclassmen

592
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 4: are more likely in my opinion, to do that. You know,

593
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 4: to have that individual responsibility to the team when you

594
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,399
Speaker 4: know there's not these mandated spring practices and workouts and

595
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,280
Speaker 4: it falls on you to have the discipline. So a

596
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 4: lot of fascinating factors to watch.

597
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 3: I hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I

598
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

599
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 3: podcast network Locked On as a daily podcast on your

600
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 3: favorite team.

601
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers, you are locked

602
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:49,480
Speaker 2: down of the Dallas marriage.

603
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 5: What can everybody to the Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go.

604
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 3: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

605
00:28:55,560 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 3: know your team better than anyone and give you the

606
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:00,560
Speaker 3: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

607
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 3: locked on your favorite team. Subscribe to your Locked On podcast.

608
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 4: Let's move on to Monday Night Football BYU and Nadie.

609
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 4: This line has been all over the place BYU is

610
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 4: now a two and a half point favorite at bet

611
00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 4: mgm over. The under has come down to fifty, which

612
00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 4: if you followed me in the app. You all I

613
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,240
Speaker 4: put an under in a fifty two and a half.

614
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 4: You could throw out any Service Academy trends here. I mean,

615
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 4: the line is between a field goal. It's not like,

616
00:29:35,720 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 4: hey take the dog or and I mean it's just

617
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 4: who do you think is where do you rate? Power

618
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 4: rate this game? How do you think it's going to

619
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 4: play out? So BYU has Wilson coming back at quarterback.

620
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 4: He's presumably healthy, but he's basically without all his top

621
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 4: receivers from last year, and his offensive line brings back

622
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,120
Speaker 4: a lot of experience and awful news this week is

623
00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 4: Matt Bushman, their star tight end is going to play

624
00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 4: in the NFL, went down with an injury. I haven't

625
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 4: got an update today, but I mean everything I represented,

626
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:03,960
Speaker 4: he tore his achilles, is going to be out for

627
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: the year. All the quotes during the summer we're going

628
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 4: to feed him, they were just they were he was

629
00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 4: going to be the feature of this offense. So they

630
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,680
Speaker 4: lost all their top receivers, They lost their star tight

631
00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 4: end the week of the game. On the other side

632
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 4: of the ball, you have Navy trying to replace Malcolm

633
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 4: Perry at quarterback. All he did last year was set

634
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,040
Speaker 4: an FBS record for a quarterback single season rushing yards

635
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 4: of over two thousand. That's who they're trying to replace.

636
00:30:29,920 --> 00:30:32,800
Speaker 4: They have Perry Olsen on the roster, has some experience,

637
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,240
Speaker 4: but they're not going with him. They're going with Dalen Morris,

638
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 4: which is he surprisingly won the job. There are reports

639
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: out of Navy that they're going to pass the ball more.

640
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:45,840
Speaker 4: This is a pro style prospect, and you might see

641
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 4: them obviously it's still a trip offs to you might

642
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 4: see them pass more, maybe on like third and long

643
00:30:49,920 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 4: and more passing pure passing situations. That gave me a

644
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 4: little bit of hesitation betting the under because on those

645
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 4: third and longs, you know Navy's still going to run

646
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 4: the ball, and then you know the clock's going to

647
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 4: be moving. But now I don't I really don't want

648
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 4: Navy throwing it where either they get an exposed to passing,

649
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:06,800
Speaker 4: whether they throw a pick or it's incomplete in the

650
00:31:06,840 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 4: clock stops and they punt it back instead of going

651
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 4: running it a third down, sitting there huddling thinking about it,

652
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:14,400
Speaker 4: maybe running it on a ford down again, going driving

653
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 4: the midfield, driving for another seven minutes. I mean that

654
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 4: those are the things that that's is why the Service

655
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,240
Speaker 4: academies are so unique. So it looks like Dale Morris

656
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:24,160
Speaker 4: is going to get the NOD, but they have to

657
00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 4: replace some pieces on the offensive line. Ford Higgins at center.

658
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 4: It's really gonna hurt. They have cr others at fullback,

659
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 4: and fullback is the key to the triple option offense.

660
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 4: But the rest I mean the slot back has been

661
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:40,239
Speaker 4: crushed by injuries and COVID opt outs. Their first two

662
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 4: players in the depth chart and their slot backer are out.

663
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 4: Their defense has they feature one of the best linebackers

664
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 4: in the country, but they were really hurt by the

665
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,840
Speaker 4: transfer portal and especially at their striker position off the edge.

666
00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 4: I mean it's there's questions at nose tackle, at cornerback,

667
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:01,960
Speaker 4: and you know, new quarterback system, offensive lit I mean

668
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 4: shortened preparation, a lot of questions. With Navy, you would

669
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 4: expect the defense still to be the strength of the team.

670
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 4: Defense was excellent last year, but there's some questions at

671
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,680
Speaker 4: corner but I'm not sure BYU can really take advantage

672
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 4: with all new weapons and losing Bushman this week. And

673
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:18,880
Speaker 4: on the other side, I think Navy's offense is going

674
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 4: to struggle early on. BYU has the beef up front

675
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:25,120
Speaker 4: to I think disrupt some things. So I like the

676
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,360
Speaker 4: under fifty two and a half. What are you seeing

677
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 4: in a BYU from a pace perspective about average nationally

678
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 4: last year? What are you seing in BYU?

679
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 2: Navy? Monday Night football?

680
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 4: By the way, last time we saw BYU play on

681
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 4: Monday the Miami Beach Bowl when they got a fight.

682
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 4: If remember that at the end of the game against Memphis.

683
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 4: That was a Monday afternoon, So I'm always on board

684
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: with Monday college football. What are you seeing here?

685
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,560
Speaker 5: Do you know who's going to eat on Monday Night?

686
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 5: Three pound noseguard Tonga for BYU? I mean this offense.

687
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:57,680
Speaker 5: I mean Tonga to support your acclaim for the under.

688
00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 5: I got two things I want to say about the under.

689
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 5: First off, Tonga is three hundred and twenty pounds and

690
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,360
Speaker 5: gonna line up over whoever the new center is for Navy.

691
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 5: There's a couple of missing spots on this offensive line

692
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 5: for Navy. I go back to what I said about

693
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 5: Army about lining up shoulder to shoulder for a triple

694
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 5: option offense. Of course we don't even know, are they

695
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,719
Speaker 5: all of a sudden zone pass blockers. Now, I think

696
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 5: the offensive line, they got to find out who's playing

697
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 5: and what their identity is on Navy. But Tonga is

698
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 5: gonna eat for BYU. That is a factor. That's a

699
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 5: that's something that we just know. So to support the

700
00:33:26,600 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 5: under there, that's gonna happen too. Navy was one of

701
00:33:30,760 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 5: the most unbelievable red zone teams we've seen in college

702
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 5: football history, I believe now I know they were number

703
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 5: one in red zone touchdown efficiency last year. I believe

704
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 5: they scored a touchdown in every red zone extempt except

705
00:33:42,760 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 5: for one the entire season. That has to have an

706
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 5: effect this year. You can't keep that.

707
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 2: You also on Malcolm anymore.

708
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 5: You don't have Malcolm Pare anymore for that number that

709
00:33:52,800 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 5: was going on last year. Like I mean, there's got

710
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:57,360
Speaker 5: to be major regression to even if they get into

711
00:33:57,440 --> 00:34:00,480
Speaker 5: the red zone, you're not gonna score a touchdown every time.

712
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:03,560
Speaker 5: Malcolm Perry was a cheat code. I mean, that wasn't

713
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 5: even fair what they were doing. What you know, when

714
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 5: it mattered past the forty yard line last year. So

715
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:10,120
Speaker 5: that's two things that I think support the under the

716
00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:12,560
Speaker 5: total that I've got here in the fifties on my

717
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 5: screen that I made or just off based off mathematical projections.

718
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 5: But that's because of what they did last year with

719
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,600
Speaker 5: Malcolm Perry and it doesn't apply. So I I understand,

720
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 5: you know, the numbers going down on the total, and

721
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 5: I think there's a good reason for that. It's not

722
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:26,239
Speaker 5: just Bushman, but b why you lost three of their

723
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 5: receivers in the offseason. So I mean, where's Zach Wilson

724
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 5: gonna throw? Zach Wilson's named starting quarterback yesterday, as if

725
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 5: it was a question. You know, I am very much

726
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 5: pro Zach Wilson since he was the Potato Potato Bowl

727
00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 5: MVP a couple of years ago. So he's got nobody

728
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 5: to throw to. And Navy is going to go under

729
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 5: some sort of crisis identity. So to me, this just

730
00:34:46,520 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 5: screams under and you might want to, you know, get it.

731
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 5: If you're listening to this tomorrow morning, you might want

732
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 5: to grab it because I think this is going to

733
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 5: be on the move. It This could get into the

734
00:34:53,520 --> 00:34:55,680
Speaker 5: you know, below a forty eight or forty seven. I'm

735
00:34:55,680 --> 00:35:00,080
Speaker 5: going to cross some key numbers here, but spread perspective, know,

736
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 5: I make this Navy minus one and we're sitting at

737
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 5: b YU minus two and a half. So I think

738
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 5: this is a game that's probably never gonna exceed three

739
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,920
Speaker 5: on any side, and it's probably best if you want

740
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 5: to play Navy, take the money line. You know, I

741
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 5: wouldn't take the points. I take the money line here,

742
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,960
Speaker 5: and if you want BYU, maybe take the money line

743
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 5: also because it I don't think there's gonna be a

744
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 5: lot of points here scored. So I agree with you

745
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 5: on the under. Whether I'll pull the trigger and play,

746
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 5: we'll see, But I mean, I got to read more

747
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:26,240
Speaker 5: into this. Navy throwing the ball.

748
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 4: BYU also doesn't get pressure on the quarterback, which is

749
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 4: another thing that I don't think Navy's gonna have success

750
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 4: through on the ball, and who knows ear Yu.

751
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:36,520
Speaker 2: They don't really get natural pressure off the edge a lot.

752
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:38,799
Speaker 4: Although they're going to a four man front this year,

753
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 4: more four man looks, which which isn't necessarily ideal against

754
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:43,359
Speaker 4: the triple option.

755
00:35:43,400 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 2: A lot of studies done that it's like a three four,

756
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 2: you want a three four.

757
00:35:46,960 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 4: You don't want a three three five, You want a

758
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 4: three four, And on even front of it, to really

759
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 4: stop the triple option doesn't get you know, four man

760
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 4: front can't. And obviously the extra preparation will help, but

761
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 4: I mean, if Navy's out chucking on third downs, it

762
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:05,280
Speaker 4: will hurt the under potentially, right, they could throw picks.

763
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 2: They could. I mean, it's just gonna stop the clock

764
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:09,640
Speaker 2: a lot more. But it's hard for me.

765
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,120
Speaker 4: Remember last year we thought that there was good who

766
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,720
Speaker 4: was gonna run more, run and shoot. Army was supposed

767
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 4: to run more, run and shoot because they had the

768
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,520
Speaker 4: guy from Hawaii, I mean, and then what did Army

769
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,080
Speaker 4: do all year? The same thing they always do.

770
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 5: That to be an army, right, only eight only eight

771
00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 5: possessions total between the two teams in the game. So

772
00:36:27,560 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 5: for me, it's gonna be probably a no play on

773
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 5: the side. There's too many question marks on both sides

774
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 5: of the ball. It's not crossing a.

775
00:36:32,600 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 4: Key numbers, so like when it moves from one to one,

776
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,440
Speaker 4: it's not that it's not as it's not the same

777
00:36:36,480 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 4: thing as moving from like two to four. It looks

778
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 4: like it could be dummy money or set up money.

779
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 4: It's not moving through key numbers, but it's been moving

780
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,759
Speaker 4: towards the BYU, so we'll see. But yeah, I'm on

781
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,480
Speaker 4: the under there, I would still play some at fifty

782
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 4: and I agree it could keep coming down. But Navy,

783
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 4: watching the Navy offenses, it's gonna be interesting. Replacing Malcolm

784
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 4: Parry is a enormous chore, all right. So those are

785
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 4: the four FBS games. Going through them all in depth.

786
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,480
Speaker 4: We will have right ups so you can check out

787
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 4: my Service Academy Betting guide that's applicable to really any

788
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:13,959
Speaker 4: Service Academy game all year long.

789
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 2: And I have some notes on both of those games.

790
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 4: Calm of a bunch of stuff out as always, to

791
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:20,520
Speaker 4: make sure you check out actionork dot Com in the

792
00:37:20,560 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 4: Action app before we get out of here.

793
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: Let's go three and out.

794
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:30,240
Speaker 5: Let's make it a quick three and out for a first.

795
00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 4: Down here, Let's talk about some of the news that

796
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 4: has come out recently. We've mentioned a lot of the

797
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 4: announcements and there could be more of opt outs. But LSU,

798
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 4: I mean they now lose one of the best receivers

799
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 4: in the country. They lose their starting one of their

800
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 4: starting interior defensive linemen as they were transitioning back to

801
00:37:45,200 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 4: a four to three and this is a team now

802
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 4: that what has four, four or five returning starters. Now

803
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 4: I mean all new coaches. The interesting question is what

804
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:59,359
Speaker 4: would you make last year's LSU team versus this year's

805
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,319
Speaker 4: LSU team and how much of a downgrade with I mean,

806
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 4: now you're losing Chase who was in shelbon. I mean,

807
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 4: there's a lot of turn here. And then you have

808
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 4: UCF that had ten players announced that they're going to

809
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 4: opt out. Now, it's not anyone that's gonna you know,

810
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,200
Speaker 4: it's not a star so to speak, but it's gonna

811
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 4: hurt their depth, especially on the interier and and I

812
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 4: believe there was a couple of starters. They'll be okay,

813
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 4: but it's probably worth a down a slight downgrade of UCF.

814
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 4: What do you make specifically of these two teams and

815
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,320
Speaker 4: the recent opt that announcements.

816
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I know LSU. I had downgraded eleven points from

817
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,360
Speaker 5: last year's team from last year's national championship team. And

818
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 5: I'm not sure that was enough because we can't overstate

819
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 5: enough what Joe Burrow did last year because it has

820
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 5: never been seen in college football before. So I'm not

821
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 5: really sure the you know what I've do, you know

822
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 5: what he did? They they beat every single projection. You know,

823
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 5: anybody that makes a power rating in anybody that does

824
00:38:57,560 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 5: advanced analytics, Joe Burrow blue them all out of the water.

825
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 5: So we may have to come back from that a

826
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,799
Speaker 5: little bit. But when you look at LSU to continue

827
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 5: to lose everybody that was on the national championship team,

828
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:11,839
Speaker 5: completely brand new faces everywhere, not to mention a new

829
00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,600
Speaker 5: passing game coordinator, you know, I make this game. I

830
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 5: think it really comes down to what do we make

831
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 5: the LSU Mississippi State game? You know, before some of

832
00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 5: the news I had at LSU minus twenty five, I

833
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 5: think public perception of what Mississippi State is going to

834
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 5: be how much love I've seen under Mississippi State versus

835
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 5: how much LSU is lost. I wouldn't be shocked one

836
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:33,400
Speaker 5: minute to see this spread under three touchdowns, which is

837
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 5: probably going to make us a buyer on LSU here

838
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 5: in a few weeks. But from a new miracle. From

839
00:39:38,520 --> 00:39:41,279
Speaker 5: a mathematic perspective, I'm just at minus eleven and a half.

840
00:39:41,560 --> 00:39:43,200
Speaker 5: I don't know how many losses we have to take

841
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 5: before I jack it down anymore. I've just got to

842
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 5: see the product on the field. The big question to

843
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 5: me with LSU is are you elite level in recruiting.

844
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 5: And my example is is Urban Meyer a couple of

845
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 5: years ago had four returning starters on an Ohio State

846
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 5: team that went to the College Football Playoff. Returning starters

847
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 5: don't matter to Alabama. Returning starters don't matter to Ohio State.

848
00:40:05,200 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 5: Does returning starters matter to LSU? And we're about to

849
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:10,719
Speaker 5: have that question answered this year. Have they reached the

850
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,480
Speaker 5: upper echelon because you know, Kirby's plugging and playing five

851
00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 5: stars right into that defense every year at Georgia. Alabama

852
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:20,239
Speaker 5: doesn't matter, Ohio State, it doesn't matter. Has LSU reached

853
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:20,680
Speaker 5: that level?

854
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 2: Now?

855
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 5: Central Florida they're they're loaded too deep on every side

856
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 5: and the ten players that left there were some offensive

857
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 5: linemen there that Dariel Mack was in there. They got

858
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 5: three quarterbacks already. I don't think it affects Central Florida

859
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 5: that much. I didn't take anything off of their power rating.

860
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 5: It wasn't anybody, you know, big enough for me to

861
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 5: move the dial on them. But you know, ls use

862
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,200
Speaker 5: a different story. I think public perception is going to

863
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 5: catch fire on this LSU team, and you're going to

864
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,279
Speaker 5: see a massive a number against Misissippi State that should

865
00:40:47,320 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 5: not be there and we'll probably end up being buyers

866
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:49,440
Speaker 5: on them.

867
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 4: With losing Chase. You're losing the last year is Donald

868
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 4: everything you lost? You lost last year's polindic Off Award

869
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:59,000
Speaker 4: winner for the best receiver in the nation. And apparently

870
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:02,439
Speaker 4: report that he didn't elect to not play the season

871
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 4: because of COVID.

872
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 2: It was because of just, hey, I'm not going to

873
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:06,239
Speaker 2: get hurt.

874
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 4: And the rule is you have to be three years

875
00:41:08,640 --> 00:41:10,160
Speaker 4: out of high school before you get drafted, which he

876
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:11,479
Speaker 4: will be now for the next draft.

877
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 2: So he's just not going to play.

878
00:41:12,760 --> 00:41:15,759
Speaker 4: Maybe agents got to him, but there's another theory here

879
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,880
Speaker 4: that he did it this late. Does the LSU offense

880
00:41:18,920 --> 00:41:23,359
Speaker 4: look that bad where it's if he plays, not only

881
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 4: is he risking injury, but he's risking having his draft

882
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 4: stock go down. I mean, the last time everyone saw him,

883
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:33,480
Speaker 4: he was a stud. He played with Barrois of Blademakoff

884
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,640
Speaker 4: Award winner. He's doing it this late said, it's not

885
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 4: related to COVID. Does the LSU offense look really really bad?

886
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 4: Thought I've had?

887
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:44,840
Speaker 5: I mean, this is not it. We're not done. We

888
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:47,560
Speaker 5: got three weeks until SEC starts. We're not done with

889
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 5: these players.

890
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think LSU with Chase out is at least

891
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 4: I don't know, maybe two touchdowns worse than last year.

892
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 2: But I could never get them high enough.

893
00:41:58,000 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 4: I was just bumping them to bump them last year

894
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 4: because you would just shatter any number. All right, let's

895
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 4: move on to second down here and talk some fcs

896
00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:09,160
Speaker 4: in some fcs.

897
00:42:08,800 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 2: Or no.

898
00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:20,640
Speaker 5: Southland or SEC, Big Sky or Big Ten.

899
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: It's time to play FC yes or no.

900
00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 2: All right.

901
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,359
Speaker 4: As we said, there's no lines out here yet. We're

902
00:42:31,400 --> 00:42:34,280
Speaker 4: not spending a ton of time on these games, especially

903
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 4: this weekend.

904
00:42:35,640 --> 00:42:39,160
Speaker 2: You know we have Steven F. Austin at UTEP. What's

905
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:40,240
Speaker 2: up l Paso.

906
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 5: We're talking minor nation out in the West Texas town

907
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 5: of l Past.

908
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 2: Picks up at UTEP Stephen F. Austin, that's at night.

909
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,239
Speaker 4: I guess we can get a wrong team favorite out

910
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:56,000
Speaker 4: there in case where this line opens up, you think

911
00:42:56,040 --> 00:42:56,480
Speaker 4: Steven F.

912
00:42:56,480 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 2: Austin is going to be a favorite over UTAP.

913
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,279
Speaker 5: I haven't listened to Steven F. Austin. If you look

914
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 5: at if you look at Sagaran, Steven F. Austin would

915
00:43:03,520 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 5: have ended last year as I think a one point

916
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 5: favorite over UTEP and then normal progression on UTEP with

917
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 5: their returning production of their success rate knocked him down

918
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 5: a couple of points more over over the offseason, so

919
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 5: d nothing back, so that nothing zero, and Steven F.

920
00:43:18,840 --> 00:43:23,759
Speaker 5: Austin doesn't bring anything back either, So I mean, really,

921
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 5: this is embarrassing to talk about this, but yeah, Steven F.

922
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 5: Austin probably whoever's getting points in this game is probably

923
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 5: going to get some money out of me, and I

924
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 5: can't imagine that's going to be UTEP, but uh, you know,

925
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 5: Steven F. Austin's got some huge holes to fill too.

926
00:43:36,200 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 5: But UTEP, Yeah, definitely, according to Sagaran finished lower than

927
00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:41,200
Speaker 5: Steven F. Austin last year.

928
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, UTEP had a couple bright spots last year. They're

929
00:43:45,239 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 2: two and thirty four of the past three years. They stink.

930
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:48,720
Speaker 2: I mean, they just stick.

931
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 4: But last year they I mean they're trying. They just

932
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 4: bring it in a ton of juco transfers than trying

933
00:43:54,640 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 4: to strike gold. You know, last year two of their

934
00:43:56,880 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 4: bright spots, their coverage wasn't terrible. They had too decent safeties.

935
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,919
Speaker 4: They're both gone. They're punter. It's a reach to find

936
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:08,719
Speaker 4: good things to say about UTAP. Was okay, he transferred

937
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 4: to Michigan State. Their defense is going from a three

938
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:13,399
Speaker 4: to four to four to three. They have a wide

939
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 4: open quarterback race. I mean they have like eight or

940
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 4: nine returning. They'd bring nothing. That's a disaster. Hard to

941
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 4: find really good info on Steven F. Austin and what's

942
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 4: going on there. I just had to get a shout

943
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:27,560
Speaker 4: out for Minor Nation earlier day. We have Eastern Kentucky

944
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 4: at Marshall at one o'clock on ESPN.

945
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:33,239
Speaker 2: I got nothing there, anything from you. No.

946
00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 5: Eastern Kentucky is a really tough team to find information on.

947
00:44:36,080 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 5: They did have that COVID outbreak. They had a player

948
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:42,840
Speaker 5: leave the program, some rumored mishandling of what was going on,

949
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 5: you know, per offseason adjustment with Marshall. Heer some power ratings.

950
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 5: We're looking at a line that should be about twenty three.

951
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:52,520
Speaker 5: So I don't see a single number out. There's no

952
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 5: number at bet MGM. I expect Marshall to be around

953
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 5: twenty three points. A big season for Marshall. They're really

954
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:01,840
Speaker 5: wanting to celebrate. They won fans of games. They have

955
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 5: a you know, big homecoming this year, celebrating an anniversary.

956
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:08,359
Speaker 5: And at Eastern Kentucky ranked lower the New Mexico State

957
00:45:08,400 --> 00:45:12,000
Speaker 5: when you integrate with FBS. So what would you make

958
00:45:12,040 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 5: marshall over in New Mexico State. Probably about twenty three points,

959
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 5: So look for that number, all right.

960
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 4: The other game I wanted to mention is North Texas

961
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 4: hosting Houston Baptist. Houston Baptist has an explosive offense through

962
00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:25,879
Speaker 4: the air. They could put up some points here. Their

963
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 4: defense is just an absolute disaster. Last year Houston Baptists

964
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 4: and they returned their star players on offense, they lost

965
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 4: thirty They lost thirty six or thirty forty. UTEP, by

966
00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:37,160
Speaker 4: the way, they could have won that game. That's one

967
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,919
Speaker 4: of utip's a few wins over the last few years.

968
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 4: But I mean they beat South Dakota fifty three to

969
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 4: fifty two. You know, they beat Texas Southern sixty eight

970
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:50,000
Speaker 4: to thirty one. They lost in I mean, they just

971
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:53,680
Speaker 4: they can get into major shootouts. Their defense isn't that good.

972
00:45:53,760 --> 00:45:56,880
Speaker 4: But North Texas is a team that I potentially might

973
00:45:57,000 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 4: want to fade here on a lot of change. They

974
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,839
Speaker 4: have a five new cap coaches on the staff, new DC,

975
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 4: new special teams, new COC now seth LA Troub will

976
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 4: take over calling plays.

977
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:08,800
Speaker 2: They still don't have a quarterback.

978
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:10,840
Speaker 4: Latrope came out and said yesterday you're gonna name co

979
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 4: starters in Austin on and being Austin Ome was an

980
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 4: next Yankees minor leaguer. I believe they have stigers back

981
00:46:17,040 --> 00:46:19,439
Speaker 4: in the backfield, two solid receivers in Darden and Shorter,

982
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:22,319
Speaker 4: but three out of five starters on the offensive line

983
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:25,000
Speaker 4: have to be replaced. The defense might be switching from

984
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 4: a three three five to four to three. Just new

985
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 4: coaches everywhere. O line is young and roll. The defensive

986
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 4: secondary last year was atrocious. So a lot of change

987
00:46:35,280 --> 00:46:40,040
Speaker 4: going on here. And you're playing a Houston Baptist offense

988
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 4: that could score. And North Texas is on my fade

989
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 4: list with all just all, there's a lot of turnover

990
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 4: going on down in Denton. But I don't know if

991
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,280
Speaker 4: I'll get involved here, but any thoughts in North Texas.

992
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 5: This will be the first time I believe since twenty

993
00:46:55,840 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 5: fifteen that Mason Fine has not been under center. That's monstrous.

994
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,960
Speaker 5: Trail will call the plays for the first time, which

995
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 5: I didn't know that I know he's a huge part

996
00:47:04,600 --> 00:47:07,239
Speaker 5: of the offensive game plan. But he's never been the

997
00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 5: play caller on the sidelines, and he will be calling

998
00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 5: every single play into the huddle. He's taking it all

999
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 5: on himself. I mean, you talk about a falling star here.

1000
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:17,799
Speaker 5: A guy that was going to take the Kansas State

1001
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,160
Speaker 5: job ends up staying North Texas. They have a tumultuous year,

1002
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,080
Speaker 5: and now he's pretty much stuck it in Denton. So

1003
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 5: I have no love for North Texas. I think just

1004
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 5: a fact alone that Mason finds out there, and the

1005
00:47:28,480 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 5: fact that Latrell has had to take over play calling duty,

1006
00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,160
Speaker 5: something that he's never done before. This isn't a team

1007
00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,240
Speaker 5: that I want to play on. And if Houston Baptist

1008
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 5: can put some points up, this may be a game,

1009
00:47:37,360 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 5: an FCS game I get into. But I'll definitely have

1010
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 5: do some more work on Houston Baptist because you know,

1011
00:47:42,320 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 5: they were power rated at the final season last year,

1012
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:48,239
Speaker 5: one point ahead of UMass somewhere around two hundred and

1013
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:50,799
Speaker 5: thirtieth I think out of all the teams that are

1014
00:47:50,920 --> 00:47:54,520
Speaker 5: that are listed in the FBS FCS crossover. So I

1015
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,319
Speaker 5: need to see if Houston Baptist has improved, if they

1016
00:47:56,360 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 5: can put some points up. But more importantly, this North

1017
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 5: Texas thing. This is going to be, you know, a

1018
00:48:01,400 --> 00:48:03,799
Speaker 5: fade on them until we see something come out of them.

1019
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:07,320
Speaker 5: Looking at their schedule, they don't play SMU until September nineteenth,

1020
00:48:07,360 --> 00:48:08,759
Speaker 5: so this would be a good gauge to keep your

1021
00:48:08,800 --> 00:48:10,600
Speaker 5: eye on this and make sure you read the box

1022
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 5: score before the lines come out in their future games.

1023
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to third down here.

1024
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 4: Let's just talk to other conferences really quick, to non

1025
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,480
Speaker 4: power fives. It's hard to find lines out here for

1026
00:48:21,680 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 4: those the AAC we talked about on earlier podcasts. I

1027
00:48:25,200 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 4: think we're both fans of UCF, even after this announcement.

1028
00:48:29,280 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 4: I'm lower on Memphis than most, and you know, UCF

1029
00:48:34,000 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 4: has to go to and by the way, there's no

1030
00:48:35,800 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 4: divisions such as the top two teams. They go to

1031
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 4: Memphis and they host Cincinnati. I think that's going to

1032
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:44,200
Speaker 4: be the difference. I like their secondary. They've returned a lot.

1033
00:48:44,320 --> 00:48:46,200
Speaker 4: This offense is going to be explosive. They were just

1034
00:48:46,680 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 4: really I think I'm went to the sport. They were

1035
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 4: just really unlucky last year in close games. I think

1036
00:48:51,400 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 4: that flips this year. I think they're the favorite to

1037
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 4: win the AAC. Anything at plus money. I would look

1038
00:48:57,640 --> 00:49:00,359
Speaker 4: at taking amount of rush to really get a lot

1039
00:49:00,480 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 4: down in this wild season, a lot of uncertainty, but

1040
00:49:03,480 --> 00:49:05,360
Speaker 4: I'm all about UCF in the AAC.

1041
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:06,760
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on the AAC.

1042
00:49:06,920 --> 00:49:08,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, I completely agree that you should get Central Florida

1043
00:49:09,040 --> 00:49:11,479
Speaker 5: plus money if you can find it. If you can't

1044
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:13,480
Speaker 5: find that, or if they're listed as a favorite to

1045
00:49:13,480 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 5: win the conference and you want to push off, I

1046
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,040
Speaker 5: would bypass Memphis because their schedule is a little bit

1047
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 5: tougher than other teams in the AAC. SMU is a

1048
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:24,040
Speaker 5: team that is trading around twenty five to one in

1049
00:49:24,160 --> 00:49:26,839
Speaker 5: some places, and they have an easier schedule. They don't

1050
00:49:26,880 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 5: play Central Florida, they get to host Cincinnati, they get

1051
00:49:30,040 --> 00:49:32,520
Speaker 5: to host Memphis pretty you know. I mean they start

1052
00:49:32,560 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 5: the season off with the likes of Texas State and

1053
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:37,879
Speaker 5: North Texas giving and Steven F. Austin giving them time

1054
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 5: to get ready for conference play. I mean they're playing

1055
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 5: a full slate games and they in their season with

1056
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:46,640
Speaker 5: East Carolina so book ended easy games and SMU returned

1057
00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 5: seventy five percent of their offense. Either sort of defense

1058
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,000
Speaker 5: optional when you're scoring fifty points a game. So I

1059
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,279
Speaker 5: think this is a one hedge ticket. You can buy

1060
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 5: an SMU ticket, you can hedge it against Memphis and

1061
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 5: they'll probably be playing ucfchampionship game.

1062
00:50:00,960 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1063
00:50:01,200 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 4: The one thing to note is there is still well

1064
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:07,200
Speaker 4: projected to be a Confence championship game. Even though Yukon

1065
00:50:07,360 --> 00:50:09,600
Speaker 4: left they were going to go independent and then they didn't.

1066
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:12,600
Speaker 4: They decided not to play this year, but they got

1067
00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 4: a waiver to play a conference title game. With just

1068
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,160
Speaker 4: eleven teams, there's not going to be divisions, so it's

1069
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 4: just the top two teams will go to the conference championship.

1070
00:50:23,320 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 4: If you believe in Navy and their defense and their

1071
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 4: offense can figure it out and replace Malcolm Perry. The

1072
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 4: interesting thing about Navy this year is their schedule. So

1073
00:50:33,840 --> 00:50:36,680
Speaker 4: obviously we talked about them starting against BYU, but they

1074
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,200
Speaker 4: go to TU Lane and they host Temple and I'm

1075
00:50:39,239 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 4: just talking about conference games here. Then they're at ECU,

1076
00:50:42,320 --> 00:50:45,759
Speaker 4: they're home against Houston, they're at SMU, So that could

1077
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 4: be the difference between SMU and Navy. So they avoid Sincy,

1078
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 4: they avoid Central Florida, and they host Memphis. But calling

1079
00:50:52,680 --> 00:50:54,840
Speaker 4: to your point, they do have to go to SMU,

1080
00:50:55,040 --> 00:50:58,319
Speaker 4: and I think we believe in SMU their offense.

1081
00:50:57,960 --> 00:50:58,839
Speaker 2: A little more this year.

1082
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 4: I do the other two conferences. We still need to

1083
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 4: get to Conference USA. FAU looking for their third title

1084
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,879
Speaker 4: in the past four years. Marshall's a player there as well.

1085
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:13,239
Speaker 4: You have new coaches at FAU, ODU and UTSA East

1086
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 4: is pretty wide open there. Oh and by the way,

1087
00:51:15,480 --> 00:51:19,360
Speaker 4: I should say with in Conference USA, the last time

1088
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:24,200
Speaker 4: either division favorite one just won the division the favorite

1089
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 4: going into the year was back in twenty fifteen. So

1090
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:30,480
Speaker 4: there's been a lot of upsets in this conference for

1091
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:34,160
Speaker 4: compared to preseason expectations. One of the teams that's really

1092
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:37,640
Speaker 4: interesting to me is Western Kentucky. I mean, this team

1093
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 4: returns a ton, very experienced team. The question is just

1094
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:45,680
Speaker 4: at quarterback. Ty Story is gone and they just named

1095
00:51:46,480 --> 00:51:49,120
Speaker 4: Pigger on the Maryland transfer the quarterback. So depending on

1096
00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:52,880
Speaker 4: how that goes, this team could be really good. They

1097
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,399
Speaker 4: were able to retain their defensive coordator Clayton White, which

1098
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:57,879
Speaker 4: is huge. He's going to get a head coaching job

1099
00:51:58,000 --> 00:52:00,880
Speaker 4: somewhere soon. Anything in the Conference USA.

1100
00:52:01,360 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, pigrim is the is the definitive example of a

1101
00:52:04,800 --> 00:52:07,759
Speaker 5: quarterback that is low in success rate and high in explosiveness.

1102
00:52:08,200 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 5: So Western Kentucky, you know, has gotten up off the

1103
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,719
Speaker 5: mat and made themselves a contender in this conference. But

1104
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 5: I'm gonna stick with all Blazers here.

1105
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 2: You know.

1106
00:52:17,880 --> 00:52:20,320
Speaker 5: I have them projected to win more games than anybody

1107
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,840
Speaker 5: else in conference play. Eighty two percent of the offense

1108
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 5: comes back, eighty percent of the defense comes back. They

1109
00:52:24,920 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 5: were second in success rate on defense last year. Most

1110
00:52:27,239 --> 00:52:29,480
Speaker 5: havoc minded group of five teams there is out there,

1111
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 5: extremely well coached. Bill Clark is everything to us gamblers.

1112
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,200
Speaker 5: I think Western Kentucky and UAB is going to be

1113
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:39,960
Speaker 5: the conference championship game. Both those teams can be found

1114
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 5: well into plus money, so I would either split a

1115
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,160
Speaker 5: half unit or ride with one of them, but definitely

1116
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 5: those are the two teams I.

1117
00:52:45,960 --> 00:52:48,800
Speaker 2: Would go with. I'll go West to Kentucky, you go UAB.

1118
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 2: Let's do steak dinner in Vegas.

1119
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 5: Whenever the damn thing opens back up, and we're all

1120
00:52:53,080 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 5: we could play blackjack without a damn shield in my face.

1121
00:52:56,200 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 4: Sounds good. And then the last conference here that will

1122
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:00,800
Speaker 4: cover is the Sun Belt.

1123
00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 2: Don't let the latest come between you and the built.

1124
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:11,239
Speaker 4: Which has been dominated by Appalachin State Louisiana can't get

1125
00:53:11,320 --> 00:53:12,520
Speaker 4: over the hump against them.

1126
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: Are we gonna see that championship game again? Or you

1127
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,200
Speaker 2: got any sleepers? What are your thoughts on the Belt?

1128
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 5: Well, app State is tough to pick somebody else besides

1129
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 5: app State, and the odds reflect that you can't get

1130
00:53:24,680 --> 00:53:26,680
Speaker 5: app State, I think anywhere at plus money. So you

1131
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 5: got to take a pass on that. And if there's

1132
00:53:28,760 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 5: one team that is an extreme long shot that I love,

1133
00:53:31,800 --> 00:53:34,120
Speaker 5: and I love them every year, I think it's because

1134
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 5: they came into Fayetville and made Arkansas look like a fool.

1135
00:53:37,000 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 5: But Coastal Carolina does return eighty eight percent of a

1136
00:53:40,320 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 5: very dynamic what do you ever want to call it

1137
00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 5: a triple option in space diamond package thing they've got

1138
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 5: going on there in Myrtle Beach. Yeah, spread option ish, Yeah,

1139
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 5: So I wish they would run the RPPO. So twentieth

1140
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,640
Speaker 5: and success rate on offense last year for Coastal Carolina,

1141
00:53:55,719 --> 00:53:58,840
Speaker 5: eighty eight percent of that offense comes back just about everybody.

1142
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,960
Speaker 5: Problem defense was one hundred and seventh in success rate.

1143
00:54:02,040 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 5: It is a problem every single year. They don't tackle anybody.

1144
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:08,759
Speaker 5: Pretty pathetic. Even on the list of Sun Belt teams.

1145
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 5: I mean, app State was seventh and success rate last

1146
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,600
Speaker 5: year on defense. Everybody else is pretty much outside the

1147
00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:16,120
Speaker 5: top eighty, so no one else is really playing defense either.

1148
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 5: I love Coastal from an offensive perspective. Not a lot

1149
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,160
Speaker 5: of change going to be a lot of consistency there.

1150
00:54:21,560 --> 00:54:25,200
Speaker 5: Coastal is trading above fifty to one in some markets,

1151
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 5: so go through a little bit something on that. But

1152
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,359
Speaker 5: I can't back app State with a new coach. He's

1153
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:32,640
Speaker 5: been there a while. He was a former offensive line coach.

1154
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:35,800
Speaker 5: But you know, taking a conference champ at paying minus

1155
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 5: one twenty five is just not long term, not a

1156
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:38,520
Speaker 5: good idea.

1157
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:40,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, Coastal last year, by the way, lost three late

1158
00:54:41,000 --> 00:54:44,640
Speaker 4: league games by combined seven points, So I mean they

1159
00:54:44,680 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 4: were a lot better in their league compared to normal.

1160
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 2: I mean, but app State's clearly the favorite in one division.

1161
00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:53,360
Speaker 4: Zach Thomas that they have seventeen starters, but they they

1162
00:54:53,480 --> 00:54:55,400
Speaker 4: lose a couple key pieces on defense. But this is

1163
00:54:55,480 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 4: clearly the best team. The West should come down on

1164
00:54:57,560 --> 00:55:00,880
Speaker 4: paper to Louisiana and Arkansas State. The Arkansas State they

1165
00:55:00,920 --> 00:55:04,160
Speaker 4: have to go to Louisiana again. So I agree with

1166
00:55:04,200 --> 00:55:05,680
Speaker 4: you if you want to take a really really long

1167
00:55:05,760 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 4: shot go with Coastal Carolina.

1168
00:55:10,840 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 5: Can we get the annow, can we get the analysis

1169
00:55:12,880 --> 00:55:14,319
Speaker 5: out of the way now and just say we're we're

1170
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:16,440
Speaker 5: taking app State against Louisiana. We don't care what the

1171
00:55:16,480 --> 00:55:16,880
Speaker 5: spread is.

1172
00:55:17,239 --> 00:55:21,560
Speaker 4: I don't know if I can have more any more

1173
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,040
Speaker 4: love for Louisiana against app State. They're o in eight

1174
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:27,400
Speaker 4: all time against app State and most of them have

1175
00:55:27,520 --> 00:55:31,640
Speaker 4: been recently. All right, well many, well, much more on

1176
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:34,400
Speaker 4: all of those teams in the Belt, the American and

1177
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,760
Speaker 4: Conference you to stay throughout the season. Will the benefit

1178
00:55:37,840 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 4: of this is we get to spend more time going

1179
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 4: deeper into games with the smaller slates. That'll wrap up

1180
00:55:45,160 --> 00:55:47,959
Speaker 4: our Week one preview. We will be back next week

1181
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:52,239
Speaker 4: for our Week two preview. We'll have some actual Power

1182
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,160
Speaker 4: three matchups to go through. We'll also have our you know,

1183
00:55:55,400 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 4: all of our normal episodes. Next week, Chris Rayven and

1184
00:55:57,560 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 4: I will do NFL Week one preview that'll be out Thursday,

1185
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 4: Calm Nights. College Football Week too pre will be out

1186
00:56:03,040 --> 00:56:06,239
Speaker 4: on Friday. Thanks for listening, Thanks for joining me. As always, Caling,

1187
00:56:06,480 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 4: make sure you subscribe Rate review again say number one

1188
00:56:10,160 --> 00:56:13,040
Speaker 4: podcast for sports betters. Lead your Twitter handle, get a

1189
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 4: free Edge subscription, and I've been known to give out

1190
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,960
Speaker 4: other things to people that do so. Just make sure

1191
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:21,560
Speaker 4: you leave your Twitter handle as well. Download the Action app.

1192
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 4: Check all of our stuff out for the weekend on

1193
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:25,680
Speaker 4: there and actionwork dot com.

1194
00:56:25,719 --> 00:56:27,439
Speaker 2: Thanks again for listening. We'll catch you out later. Cheers.

1195
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: He's out.

1196
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:45,840
Speaker 4: We're finished talking.