1 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where we tried to learn from 2 00:00:12,600 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 1: our mistakes like pegging against the chiefs in Arrowhead. 3 00:00:16,520 --> 00:00:18,440 Speaker 2: Just bit on that in just a minute. 4 00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,320 Speaker 1: Yes, I am here in the Chris Wesleyan podcast studio 5 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 1: with my friend Cynthia Freeland. This is our weekly picks 6 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 1: man versus Model your computer model, but the first time 7 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: we've done it in the studio, and it just it 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:33,199 Speaker 1: feels right. 9 00:00:33,240 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 3: Cynthia, Yeah, I mean it was a little awkward. 10 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:36,800 Speaker 4: We were like sort of sitting like in a way 11 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:39,880 Speaker 4: that was very unnatural before, but now it feels very 12 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:42,559 Speaker 4: I feel like, you know, I've got a good space 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 4: around me. It's just good. Like the vibes are strong. 14 00:00:46,520 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 4: Things are good. 15 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 1: The vibes are strong. Cynthia's got her glasses on, which 16 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 1: she doesn't even need. She just wears them to look smarter, 17 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: which is preposterous. People can check that out on YouTube. 18 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 1: But we're going to go through the picks first. The 19 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: bad news. We both went one and two last week. 20 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: Moving on, let's get to this week's pick. I feel 21 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: good last week. I went into it. I gotta admit 22 00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:07,679 Speaker 1: I wasn't confident, Like I wasn't like loving my picks. 23 00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:11,600 Speaker 1: The one pick we had together was Seattle plus three 24 00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 1: and a half. 25 00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,960 Speaker 2: And you know we tape this. That was a Monday 26 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:15,680 Speaker 2: night football game. 27 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:17,280 Speaker 1: We have to be a little careful because we don't 28 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: know the full injury reports and they ended up missing 29 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: five defensive starters out Like, are we drawing dead here? 30 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 2: So that was one and two. We'll get to the 31 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:25,880 Speaker 2: extra picks later. 32 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: I feel great about my picks this week, so I 33 00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: will let you go first because I'm sticking with the 34 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 1: three I have. There's no indecision. These are three winners. 35 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,240 Speaker 1: So if you happen to pick the same ones, I'll 36 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: just jump on board with you. 37 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 4: Well really quick before we start. How did the box do? 38 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: That's what America needs. 39 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: Box went one and one, which are my extra picks? 40 00:01:43,640 --> 00:01:45,639 Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, the boxes. The boxes crushed. 41 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,480 Speaker 2: The box is eleven and three this year. Okay. 42 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 4: So for my very first pick, did you like that 43 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 4: that we had to make it a little bit dramatic here. 44 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:57,800 Speaker 4: I'm going to take Seattle to win by at least 45 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 4: a touchdown I think right now at six and a half. 46 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 4: But I like a nice strong win against the Giants. 47 00:02:02,360 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 4: I think a bounce back situation. We saw that Kenneth 48 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 4: Walker is crushing life. Funny thing here that the New 49 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,160 Speaker 4: York Giants are one of three teams that have only 50 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 4: allowed one rushing touchdown. I don't care Kenneth Walker, that's 51 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 4: gonna he's gonna change that this week. 52 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:16,280 Speaker 3: But I think this is a good one. 53 00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:19,919 Speaker 4: And by the way, DK Metcalf very almost quietly has 54 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 4: had three games in a row of over one hundred 55 00:02:22,600 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 4: receiving yards, like that is a Seahawk record. That's really great. 56 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,639 Speaker 4: We aren't talking about that enough. So you know, gino, 57 00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 4: let's go. 58 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:33,639 Speaker 1: Yes, there's mismatches all over the place against this Giant secondary. 59 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 1: They don't have a number one cornerback, like who they 60 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 1: gonna put Deontay Banks against ddk Metcalf and then it 61 00:02:39,720 --> 00:02:41,359 Speaker 1: gets a lot worse from there. 62 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 2: I don't know if dor Jackson is gonna play in 63 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:43,200 Speaker 2: this game. 64 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: Initially my instinct was that's a lot of points, like 65 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 1: the Giants aren't that bad of a one and three team, 66 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: And then as we tape this, it's uncertain. But it's 67 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: not looking good for Molik Neighbors and that Giants offense 68 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: without Malik Neighbors. It does sound like some Seattle defenders 69 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 1: will be back. Not all we'll see, so some injury 70 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: concerns here, but I like Seattle, they are not one 71 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: of my considerations. I am going with Ravens minus two 72 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 1: and a half as my first overall selection here. Sometimes 73 00:03:14,120 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 1: you don't need to get too complicated. This is the 74 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: number one offense in the league efficiency according to DVOA. 75 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:25,760 Speaker 1: According to like EPA per play that they're running attack 76 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: is awesome. And it's against a defense that can't tackle 77 00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: week after week, that can't set the edge like Chuba 78 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: Hubbard's getting to the edge, Miles Sanders is getting to 79 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: the edge. You don't think Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry's 80 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:41,280 Speaker 1: going to get to the edge against this defense. And 81 00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 1: so that to me is such a mismatch. And then 82 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 1: when I think about the other side of the ball, Yes, 83 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: the Bengals offense is playing, well, that's the case. Like 84 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: against this it's at home, it's a division game, there's familiarity. 85 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,480 Speaker 1: There was some success for the Bengals in the past 86 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: in this matchup, although the Ravens did win both games 87 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,600 Speaker 1: last year. But then I look at the schedule that 88 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: the Bengals offense has played against this year. It's the 89 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: twenty eighth easiest schedule for opposing offenses, that their offense 90 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: is paid for opposing defenses. You know Panthers last week, 91 00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:16,320 Speaker 1: like it's been a lot of easy matchups for them. 92 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: It's a big step up against the Ravens. I just 93 00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 1: think this is a wagon. I think this is one 94 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: of those matchups. If it was in Week twelve, it 95 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 1: would be five points because at that point we know 96 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 1: the Bengals are a decent but flawed team with no defense, 97 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: and we know that the Ravens are one of the 98 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: best teams in the league, and that's what I believe 99 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: them to be. So I think this is a good 100 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,600 Speaker 1: value two and a half. I love me some Ravens. 101 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 4: How far would you go with that? Because I'm with 102 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 4: you at two and a half? Some places I've seen 103 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:45,040 Speaker 4: it's like three or four. Sure, I hate but whatever. 104 00:04:45,000 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 2: Would I would just go? I feel this. I feel this. 105 00:04:48,000 --> 00:04:51,599 Speaker 1: I feel like Lamar Jackson rushing totals like I feel it. 106 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:56,039 Speaker 1: This team they're soft, they can't tackle, bad defense. Their 107 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 1: linebacker with Jermaine prattz slow. Okay, that's enough. 108 00:04:58,600 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: On the Raves, thats a lot. 109 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: I just feel good. That was like my favorite maybe 110 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 1: my favorite one of the years. 111 00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:06,080 Speaker 4: I'm glad that you got that off your chest. Psyche 112 00:05:06,080 --> 00:05:09,280 Speaker 4: feels like the rain Maker is out for free Baltimore Maker. 113 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 2: I love it. 114 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 3: What I told you, I hate the number four. 115 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 4: However, my next pick is a line that's at four, 116 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 4: which is Chicago. I think they win over Carolina by 117 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 4: more than that. 118 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:18,280 Speaker 3: At home. 119 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 4: Chicago has a very nice home win streak going, which 120 00:05:20,920 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 4: I don't actually care about it all in terms of 121 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,000 Speaker 4: predicting the game, but it is fun to tell people. 122 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:28,280 Speaker 4: I also think that, look, if you're looking at this defense, 123 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,720 Speaker 4: the Carolina defense, and you're thinking where am I going 124 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:33,320 Speaker 4: to find a source of success? Every time it's like 125 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 4: Jack Thompson, Oh no, he's hurt too, Derek Brown, like 126 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,080 Speaker 4: they just keep getting so injured along that defense. That 127 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:43,479 Speaker 4: this is an opportunity for Caleb Williams to turn around 128 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 4: some of his statistics on deep passing, downfield passing so 129 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 4: ten plus AREAAR twenty plus area. He hasn't been particularly 130 00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,479 Speaker 4: great on those yet. Maybe this is a situation where 131 00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 4: he won't be under so much pressure that he could 132 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 4: actually complete. 133 00:05:54,800 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 3: Some of those. 134 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,200 Speaker 4: DJ Moore loves revenge. I don't actually know if that's true, 135 00:05:58,240 --> 00:06:00,159 Speaker 4: but we're gonna say it is. But you know, there's 136 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:02,680 Speaker 4: just a number of ways here that I think it's 137 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 4: going to be very hard for Carolina to you know 138 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,240 Speaker 4: that just to me, that just means a touchdown. 139 00:06:07,279 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 3: It doesn't mean four points. Might as well be five 140 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: and a half. 141 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,839 Speaker 1: Year surely, I didn't know what to think about this game, 142 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,880 Speaker 1: but I think you're right that this Panthers defense is 143 00:06:15,920 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: going to be one of the worst in the league. 144 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: When I watched that Bengals Panthers game last week, for instance, 145 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 1: like I don't even know if the Bengals did that 146 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: much that well in this game in that game, but 147 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:28,359 Speaker 1: they were completing short, easy passes. Kayleb Williams did that 148 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,039 Speaker 1: well last week. It was almost like they were starting 149 00:06:31,080 --> 00:06:31,960 Speaker 1: back over with him. 150 00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 3: He did it well. 151 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, fifteen to fifteen on ten plus area AR or 152 00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 4: under ten are passes. 153 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 3: So that's pretty good. 154 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 4: And then if you look at what Andy Dalton has 155 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 4: always done well in his career is what quick passes. Yeah, right, 156 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 4: and the Bears are actually like fifth or sixth best 157 00:06:46,120 --> 00:06:48,760 Speaker 4: at limiting yards from quick passes. So it just is 158 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 4: a bad mismatch for you know, the for the Panthers 159 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 4: and it's in at Soldier Field, which I don't know. 160 00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 4: I think those Bears fans want they want if they 161 00:06:57,320 --> 00:07:00,520 Speaker 4: could like have anything to be like may Caleb Williams. 162 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 1: Well, yeah, just be patient, right, No, we're all rooting 163 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: for you. Yes, I'm going to see the Bears in 164 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 1: London next week, and so I want to win here. 165 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 2: Get to three and two. 166 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: Give me a little Caleb Williams pop because we know 167 00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,320 Speaker 1: the Jags they're not really providing the pop in that 168 00:07:16,440 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: in that Jags Bears matchup. 169 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 2: So let's go Caleb Williams. 170 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: I think they get a win, and I think Andy 171 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 1: Dalton has played really well getting rid of the ball quickly. 172 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: But you're right, this is by far the toughest matchup 173 00:07:26,920 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: he's had against a very good secondary. 174 00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 2: So I like that pick. 175 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: No crossover here, Okay, I'm going Saints plus five and 176 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:34,440 Speaker 1: a half. 177 00:07:34,520 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 3: Like that one a lot. 178 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: Now on Game Deay View, which look you can you 179 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: could DVR it, you can save it. It's on Friday mornings, 180 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: on Sunday mornings. It's all over the place. It's our 181 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: show on NFL Network. I'm taking the Saints straight up. Now, 182 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 1: do I feel incredibly confident about them winning an Arrowhead. No, 183 00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:51,800 Speaker 1: I do not, although I think the money line would 184 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: be fun in this one too, But for our purposes, 185 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: we're picking against the spread. 186 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,840 Speaker 2: And I love me some five and a half here. 187 00:07:58,200 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 1: Now I've made this mistake before going against Patrick Mahomes 188 00:08:02,560 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: in Arrowhead. But five and a half points it's essentially 189 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: a touchdown. Yeah, Nine out of their last ten wins 190 00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 1: are by one score, which is you know it's under seven, 191 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: So five and a half that's great. Then you look 192 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,440 Speaker 1: at the underlying numbers. At some point you have to 193 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: just trust who's playing better so far this year. Saints 194 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:26,239 Speaker 1: like third in DVA, Kansas City twelfth EPA per play, 195 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: Kansas City right in the middle, thirteenth, fourteenth offense defense, 196 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:32,959 Speaker 1: Saints fifth fourth. Now that's getting boosted by those first 197 00:08:33,000 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: couple weeks where the. 198 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 4: Carolina was a little bit of a booster. Yeah, was 199 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 4: a ego booster as a slumpbuster for. 200 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 1: The absolutely last week even Yeah, they score three offensive touchdowns, 201 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,400 Speaker 1: They don't give up any Their defense is a legit 202 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,199 Speaker 1: defense for sure. Now the case against it, of course, 203 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: is they find stupid ways to lose. Both these teams 204 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:53,680 Speaker 1: went to Atlanta, for instance, I thought New Orleans looked 205 00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:55,959 Speaker 1: much more dominant in their game. They found a way 206 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:57,680 Speaker 1: to lose. The Chiefs found a way to win, and 207 00:08:57,679 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: that's why that's where the five and a half points 208 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,920 Speaker 1: come in. I really do believe the Saints are a 209 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:06,440 Speaker 1: better team. They just happened to have Patrick Mahomes not 210 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,439 Speaker 1: playing well and Andy Reid and the other team is 211 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:10,200 Speaker 1: Derek Carr and Dennis All And I'm going to talk 212 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: myself out of this before it's too long, but I 213 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 1: really do think the Saints are a better team. They're 214 00:09:14,679 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: going to get healthier. I think on the defensive side 215 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,079 Speaker 1: of the ball. Hopefully Taysom Hill is back for their often. 216 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 4: That's the lynch pin for me for the five and 217 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 4: a half. That's it, the Taysom Hill. 218 00:09:22,960 --> 00:09:26,200 Speaker 1: Really yes, I mean the numbers are crazy that when 219 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 1: he's been out there this year, but maybe he just 220 00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: was out there in the easier matchups. So yeah, keep 221 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,760 Speaker 1: an eye on the Taysom Hill injury report stuff. 222 00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:37,040 Speaker 4: I can absolutely guarantee one thing in this game though, yes, 223 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 4: that after the game, the coach of the team that's 224 00:09:39,400 --> 00:09:41,800 Speaker 4: facing the Saints is not going to say stats. 225 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 3: Are for losers. 226 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,720 Speaker 2: All right, yeah, that was you know like Kelsey right 227 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 2: did that? 228 00:09:48,920 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 3: No, No, that was that was Raheem Morris. 229 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,840 Speaker 1: So last week, Oh that's right, Jason Kelcey repeated it 230 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:57,600 Speaker 1: and then went on another rant, which is hilarious. 231 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:00,320 Speaker 4: The one thing I do really like in this game, 232 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:02,160 Speaker 4: I think it's a really low total. 233 00:10:02,200 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 3: It's forty two and a half. 234 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 4: I know both of these defenses are what's driving that, 235 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:09,319 Speaker 4: but that's still a really low number. I understand the Chiefs. 236 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 4: They haven't bes worriing ton of points. We've seen the 237 00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:13,320 Speaker 4: Saints kind of go back and forth. But I think 238 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,439 Speaker 4: if you look at where like the part of the 239 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 4: Saints defense that has been like generous in terms of 240 00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:21,679 Speaker 4: air yards per target, aer yards per reception, that's where 241 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 4: tight ends run, they've been generous to the tight end vision. 242 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,120 Speaker 4: So I do think that the surprises the score could 243 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 4: be a little bit higher than that. 244 00:10:28,800 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: So the Chiefs, this is their first game where they 245 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:35,480 Speaker 1: go into it knowing they don't have Rashid Rice, who's 246 00:10:35,480 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 1: on MYR although his time to return is undefined right now, 247 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 1: it might not be a season ending injury, which which 248 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: is very interesting. They don't have Pa Checko this is 249 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: a slow offense with Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce out there. 250 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:52,160 Speaker 1: I like Alante Taylor in the slot. I like all 251 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: the different guys. 252 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 3: They're Lonnny Taylor everywhere. 253 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: They're not going to get great pass rush on Mahomes, 254 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: but that really hasn't been the case all year for 255 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:00,000 Speaker 1: teams playing the Chiefs, and they're still not getting the 256 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 1: I think this is a secondary that can stick with 257 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 1: these guys on longer developing plays. So I really like 258 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:08,760 Speaker 1: this one too. I like all my picks this week. 259 00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: I'm feeling good if if I go one and two 260 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 1: this week like I did last like, I will have 261 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,640 Speaker 1: a Mia Kolpa, I will apologize. I think I think 262 00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:21,520 Speaker 1: the rally starts now minimum two in one. I'm feeling 263 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: maybe a three and oh week. All right, what's your 264 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:24,080 Speaker 1: what's your last one? 265 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,960 Speaker 4: I actually think right as of right now, New England 266 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 4: is favored by one point in that game. But there's 267 00:11:29,320 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 4: no Kyle Dugger, there's still you know, there's still Tyreek Hill, 268 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 4: There's still There's just a lot of things. And this 269 00:11:35,640 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 4: is a defense that Mike McDaniel is very, very familiar 270 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 4: with the structure of the defense, how it works, what 271 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 4: goes on and just rushing against them. And by the way, 272 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,600 Speaker 4: unfortunately for the Patriots they lost their center too. This 273 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,880 Speaker 4: is also a team who's already been getting gashed in 274 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 4: the middle of that O line. So I just think 275 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 4: the wrong team's favored. So I'll go ahead and take 276 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:54,559 Speaker 4: the point because I think Miami wins this game. 277 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,800 Speaker 1: I took Miami in this game too. I think that's 278 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,600 Speaker 1: a good pick. David Andrews is a huge lie for them, 279 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:05,040 Speaker 1: already the worst offensive line in the league, a team 280 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: I think that Miami can look at and think, man, 281 00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 1: all of our problems, like we're not getting much edge rush. 282 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: This is a matchup maybe where we can but we 283 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: can certainly get some push up the middle play as 284 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:16,199 Speaker 1: Campbell and Zack Seeler, And I think you hit the 285 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 1: nail on the head with the matchup that McDaniel feels 286 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 1: comfortable with. They've almost been playing scared the last couple 287 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: of weeks. They might not The Patriots might not have 288 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:27,199 Speaker 1: Jabrill Peppers in this game. You know, Christian Barmore is 289 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: long gone at this point, Matt Jwan Benny was, yet 290 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: Jawan Bentley was the guy calling the signals. It has 291 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:37,280 Speaker 1: not been a good defense, and so I do think 292 00:12:37,320 --> 00:12:39,679 Speaker 1: Miami looks at this matchup and thinks, man, we can 293 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 1: actually just find a win here. It'll be close, it'll 294 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:45,400 Speaker 1: they'll ugly it up the Patriots. 295 00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 2: But I'm with you. I think the Dolphins win. Not 296 00:12:46,920 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 2: one of my picks, though. 297 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 4: Oh I like that we're different. Glad just we're covering 298 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:51,640 Speaker 4: the whole league. 299 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: Glad that you're not taking this one for me. I 300 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: love the Bills on the road in Houston. I usually 301 00:12:56,640 --> 00:12:59,760 Speaker 1: don't go for these like pick them type games where 302 00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: it's two good teams, but I think the Bills are 303 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: a step above. And look, I had the Bills winning 304 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. I had them losing last week. I've 305 00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:12,320 Speaker 1: been on the Bills. Yeah, this is one team I 306 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: got a feel for. I think they're a top five 307 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:16,400 Speaker 1: or six team in the NFL. I don't think Houston 308 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: is there yet. I like good teams coming off bad losses. 309 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:21,080 Speaker 1: I don't care about the numbers. I don't know if 310 00:13:21,080 --> 00:13:23,160 Speaker 1: there's any numbers to that, but like a really good 311 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:25,960 Speaker 1: team coming off of a loss, I like them rebounding 312 00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,480 Speaker 1: and then what's the way to beat the Bills. I 313 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: think the Ravens showed it last week. That's a bad 314 00:13:30,520 --> 00:13:33,600 Speaker 1: matchup problem to be more physical than them up front, 315 00:13:33,600 --> 00:13:35,440 Speaker 1: to push them around a little bit. They're a little 316 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 1: they're a little lighter in the pants the Bills on defense, 317 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:42,839 Speaker 1: but they get Terrell Bernard back this week, apparently Toron Johnson. 318 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 1: At least they're practicing, so it looks good. The Texans 319 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: can't run the ball like we thought the Texans were 320 00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 1: going to be able to run the ball. First week 321 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: of the season, they could, Joe Mixon gets hurt. Last 322 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:54,120 Speaker 1: three weeks, they're right back to last year. Then I 323 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: look at the other side of the ball in the trenches. 324 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,439 Speaker 1: Offensive line for the Bills has been awesome. 325 00:13:58,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 3: Lead Dian Back. 326 00:14:00,120 --> 00:14:02,320 Speaker 2: We don't know if Dean Dawkins is playing a huge deal. 327 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 3: That left tackle is like the that is huge. 328 00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 2: Absolutely huge. 329 00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:08,600 Speaker 1: But you know what, Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter haven't 330 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: been blowing up game plans this week, and I think 331 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:14,959 Speaker 1: you can survive without one good offensive lineman. You can 332 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: help out their backup left tackle. The rest of the 333 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,000 Speaker 1: line is really good. So I think they're winning the 334 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: games upfront on both sides of the ball. I think 335 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 1: they're winning those battles. I like the Bills a lot 336 00:14:26,200 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 1: minus one. I think the Texans have been more rickety 337 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,800 Speaker 1: than their record suggests. They win these last second games 338 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:36,880 Speaker 1: against the Colts and the Jaguars, and that's great, that's 339 00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:39,720 Speaker 1: a great young win, you know, wins for young quarterbacks. 340 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 2: But I think the Bills are ready for this. 341 00:14:41,800 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 4: So to me, this game is it feels foggy for 342 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 4: a couple of reasons. Number One, they lost von Miller 343 00:14:48,480 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 4: on defense. He's suspended, so that makes a big difference. 344 00:14:51,840 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 4: Number Two, I don't know. This injury report reads to 345 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 4: me like, you know, what's that game you play with 346 00:14:56,960 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 4: your kids? Were like, does he wear glasses? Guess who? 347 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 4: I'm just like, I don't even know who's playing at 348 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:03,560 Speaker 4: this point. So I don't have a great feel on 349 00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 4: this one. And then further, if the Texans were to 350 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,080 Speaker 4: clean up their penalties, they have the most in the league. 351 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 4: They have forty total twenty six on offense. 352 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 3: Yo, that's bad. 353 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,000 Speaker 4: If you were to clean that up just a little bit, 354 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:21,080 Speaker 4: you're putting yourself in a much better situation. So it's 355 00:15:21,120 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 4: just hard when the problem is penalties, Like, I don't 356 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,320 Speaker 4: know how you fix that, But I also know that 357 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 4: that's been. 358 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: Sloppy and Eco concept individually made up for it, but 359 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: they've operations been sloppy. 360 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:33,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, but it's lacking. 361 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 4: But what if you get it together this week and 362 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 4: then maybe Terrell Bernard or whatever they are not one 363 00:15:38,320 --> 00:15:38,960 Speaker 4: hundred percent. 364 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 3: That's just the thing where I. 365 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 4: Feel like and I'm just like, uh, what am I 366 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:44,240 Speaker 4: looking at here? 367 00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: You know? 368 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:46,520 Speaker 4: Like I and I'm very familiar with the bills, and 369 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 4: I'm very familiar with the text, but extremely familiar with 370 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:51,160 Speaker 4: the bills. Okay, it's like, you know who's playing safety? Like, 371 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:52,800 Speaker 4: are we is Taylor Rapp? 372 00:15:52,800 --> 00:15:53,760 Speaker 3: Okay? Is he gonna play? 373 00:15:53,880 --> 00:15:53,920 Speaker 4: Like? 374 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 2: I think Taylor Rep's probably missing this game? Yeah, there are. 375 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:58,840 Speaker 3: There's just likely a good feel. 376 00:15:58,880 --> 00:16:00,880 Speaker 1: Don't I don't feel good going on the whole operation. 377 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 1: I'm going like Josh Allen. I love Josh MVP season. 378 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 1: So we're on opposite sides there, But that's not one 379 00:16:06,680 --> 00:16:09,240 Speaker 1: of your three picks. We're both coming off one in 380 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:13,320 Speaker 1: two weeks. We're the man if I am that and 381 00:16:14,040 --> 00:16:16,920 Speaker 1: the computer model. We're tied so far, but we're under 382 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 1: five hundred. We need to we need to rally. If 383 00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: you have any others that you just kind of like 384 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,240 Speaker 1: you could throw them out. But yes, you mentioned the box, 385 00:16:25,440 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: and so every every week I have the box. I 386 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 1: have the teams that make make my top picks, and 387 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: for some reason, my extra picks are eleven and three. 388 00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:36,560 Speaker 2: Yes, we went one and. 389 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 1: Two last week, but the extra picks are eleven and three, 390 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: only one in one last week. Though I like the 391 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 1: Vikings in London, the more I thought about it, like 392 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:44,920 Speaker 1: the less I've liked it. That was going to be 393 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:46,520 Speaker 1: one of my picks early in the week, and I 394 00:16:46,600 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 1: just the more I thought about it. Aaron Rodgers is 395 00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 1: playing really well, but I do think a team that 396 00:16:51,160 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 1: has protection problems the Jets identifying the free rushers and 397 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: all that against Brian Brian Floores, and then the Jets 398 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 1: defense hasn't played anyone. I'm I'm not sure about this 399 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: Jets defense. They've played the Titans, the Patriots, and the 400 00:17:03,400 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 1: Broncos back to back to back. I think there could 401 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:07,760 Speaker 1: be issues there against the run. So I kind of 402 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: like the Vikings, I like the Commanders, like the Commanders. 403 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:12,399 Speaker 3: I like the Commanders a lot. That was going to 404 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:13,000 Speaker 3: be one of mine. 405 00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 4: I just don't like the number three because then you 406 00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,840 Speaker 4: can push and like that seems like it's crappy for 407 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,400 Speaker 4: our results. I also like Pittsburgh two and a half 408 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 4: at home against the Cowboys, who are. 409 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 2: With that one is to be the biggest history box game. 410 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:26,679 Speaker 3: Parsons, Marcus Lawrence, gone gone. 411 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 4: They're already tied for allowing like the most rushing first downs. 412 00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 2: In the league. 413 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: But now we're favoring justin fields and a pretty I'm 414 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: not over and I love fields. 415 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,959 Speaker 2: But over Dak. To me, that's just a toss up, 416 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 2: and I just want to stay away from. 417 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 4: No, I'm justin fields against a very banged up defense 418 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 4: compared to Dak Prescott versus a really mean defense. 419 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 3: Okay, that's kind of how I view it. Like it's not. 420 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 2: If I had to pick one, i'd be on your side. 421 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: I'd take the Steelers, but that one I just kind 422 00:17:53,320 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 1: of want to watch and enjoy the uniform matchup in 423 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,200 Speaker 1: the history. And so yeah, in the box this week, 424 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: my my repicks would be Minnesota minus two and a half, 425 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:04,480 Speaker 1: Washington minus three and a half or three, depending on 426 00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:08,400 Speaker 1: where you look. And I actually was on the opposite side. 427 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,040 Speaker 1: Now that you kind of convinced me out of it, 428 00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: I'm crossing it out. I had Carolina written down, and 429 00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 1: you convinced me out of it. 430 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 2: I have to admit, I'm so it's good. 431 00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:17,760 Speaker 3: I'm sorry if we're wrong, I'm really sorry. 432 00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 2: I know it's okay because it's. 433 00:18:19,400 --> 00:18:21,960 Speaker 4: The box actually makes me feel better because everything in 434 00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 4: that box feels luckier. 435 00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 2: It has been luckier. But so I'm only going with 436 00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:25,920 Speaker 2: two there. 437 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: It's Minnesota and Washington because you made a compelling case 438 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: against and I want to root for the Bears to 439 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:32,480 Speaker 1: win this game easily. 440 00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 2: Yeah in Caleb Williams. 441 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:35,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, because then in luck it will be way more fun. 442 00:18:35,680 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 1: Thank you all for listening all week long on the podcast. 443 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 1: We really appreciate you leave some reviews. Yeah, we give 444 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 1: us a few stars. I just love this community we're 445 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:51,720 Speaker 1: building and everyone that has been enjoying the shows. We 446 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 1: will be back on Sunday night to recap all the games, 447 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: including that Bear Name game and the Bears winning big. 448 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:04,040 Speaker 2: When the games are in London, you know football is back. 449 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:07,240 Speaker 2: I can't see you next day.