Speaker 1: Now from our nation's capital. This is Bloomberg sound On.
Speaker 1: Our forces in the region will continue to operate to
Speaker 1: fly to sale wherever international waters allows. That includes the
Speaker 1: Taiwan Straight. I think what we saw with China well say,
Speaker 1: we're trying to establish sort of a new normal. Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Sound On, Politics, Policy and Perspective from DC's top name.
Speaker 1: Thee answer isn't to defund the police. It's to fund
Speaker 1: the police. Bagar. Republics don't have a clue about the
Speaker 1: power women. They are about to find out. Bloomberg Sound
Speaker 1: On with Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Radio. Taiwan fires had
Speaker 1: drones from mainland China. Welcome to the fastest hour in
Speaker 1: politics as tensions rise in the Taiwan Straight just as
Speaker 1: U S. Navy warships passed through for the first time
Speaker 1: since Nancy Pelosi's trip to the island. Will discuss the
Speaker 1: stakes and Washington's evolving relationship with Beijing. Not for a
Speaker 1: Better Right Now with Jacque de Lele, director of the
Speaker 1: Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania Law School. Later, President Biden back to Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: today to talk up his new plan to fight crime,
Speaker 1: and he's going back to battleground Pennsylvania two more times
Speaker 1: in the next week. We'll talk mid term strategies with
Speaker 1: Christian Hall, national politics reporter at Bloomberg Analysis from our
Speaker 1: panel Bloomberg Politics contributor Democratic analyst Jennie Chanzano, joined today
Speaker 1: by Republican analyst Bill McGinley with the Vogel Group. Another
Speaker 1: surprising headline from Taiwan, where soldiers have fired shots to
Speaker 1: ward off drones flying close to some small islands that
Speaker 1: are controlled by Taipei. Well, if you ask Taiwan, this
Speaker 1: right near the Chinese coast. Uh, this is dangerous stuff.
Speaker 1: The headline alone says enough. It's another day where tensions
Speaker 1: are rising. Here in White House, Press Secretary Karine Jean
Speaker 1: Pierre was asked about it early today's briefing. I should
Speaker 1: say gaggle actually because they were on Air Force one
Speaker 1: on the way to Pennsylvania where the President spoke today,
Speaker 1: but very carefully answered by Karine John p Here here
Speaker 1: she is. We remain committed to our China, One China policy,
Speaker 1: as you've heard us say these past several weeks, in
Speaker 1: accordance with that policy, will continue to fly, will continue
Speaker 1: to sail and operate where international law allows us to
Speaker 1: consistent with our laun standing commitment again to freedom of navigation,
Speaker 1: and that includes conducting standard air and maritime transit through
Speaker 1: the Taiwan straight So we're gonna keep doing what we're doing.
Speaker 1: They're gonna keep doing what they're doing, but it does
Speaker 1: seem to be a new level. Three drones here. Uh,
Speaker 1: none of them were hit and we're sort of warning
Speaker 1: shots as they're described by Taiwan, and they did head
Speaker 1: back to mainland China at one point one of them
Speaker 1: re emerged. But this is scary stuff in Taipei, and
Speaker 1: it's where we start our conversation. Following a heard congressional
Speaker 1: trip with Codel to Taiwan, this time we spoke with
Speaker 1: Senator Marshall Blackburn of Tennessee who just returned, and it's
Speaker 1: all coinciding here with as I mentioned, are evolving and
Speaker 1: some would suggest deteriorating relationship with Beijing. Joining us on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg sound On. Jack Delisle, the Stephen Cozen Professor of
Speaker 1: Law and Political Science, runs the Center for the Study
Speaker 1: of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania Law School.
Speaker 1: Jack thanks for being with us when we hear about
Speaker 1: Taiwan opening fire on anything made by China. What does
Speaker 1: that tell us about the state of affairs in the
Speaker 1: Taiwan straight Well, it's a reminder that the state of
Speaker 1: affairs is not good. It hasn't been good for several
Speaker 1: years now, and of course it was especially bad earlier
Speaker 1: in August, and we saw the military exercises that China
Speaker 1: launched in the waters around Taiwan. Well, so talk to
Speaker 1: me more about this. Is it not a new level?
Speaker 1: I mean, once you start seeing things being shot from Taiwan,
Speaker 1: that opens up an invitation to any number of respond
Speaker 1: from China. Sure, I mean I think it is another
Speaker 1: ratchet up, another or at least another front in this
Speaker 1: kind of gray zone conflict. Now, to frame this a
Speaker 1: little bit, what's going on is China is sending unarmed
Speaker 1: air an armed airborne vehicle. So there's there's no real
Speaker 1: chance of people dying here over the airs into the
Speaker 1: airspace over islands controlled by Taiwan. And these are merely
Speaker 1: unarmed drones, they don't have weapons on them, and it's
Speaker 1: in fairly peripheral islands. But China is trying to make
Speaker 1: the point and trying to get its new normal where
Speaker 1: it exercises a degree of control in the airspace over
Speaker 1: land areas claimed and controlled by Taiwan. So it's sort
Speaker 1: of ascertain a sovereignty. And if you look at what
Speaker 1: the Ministry of Foreign Afair At spokesman, the famous lincombative
Speaker 1: dyn said, there's nothing to see here. It's just Chinese
Speaker 1: drones over Chinese airspace, over Chinese land. That of course
Speaker 1: is provocative towards Taiwan. And their view is that this
Speaker 1: is an unwanted, uninvited guests. They actually quoted an old
Speaker 1: Chinese proverb to that effect. So they're trying to warn
Speaker 1: an all off and trying to push back. What if
Speaker 1: they shot one down, is that is that an act
Speaker 1: of war? Um? Well, if they shot one down, the
Speaker 1: claim from the Taiwanese side would be it was an
Speaker 1: act of self defense against against a hostile vehicle being
Speaker 1: sent in by China. In the Chinese view, it's essentially
Speaker 1: China acting over Chinese territory, and so in a way
Speaker 1: it's a wonderfully tangible and in some ways quite scary
Speaker 1: example of the nub of the dispute, which is China
Speaker 1: claims Taiwan is part of China full stop in Taiwan
Speaker 1: claims a good deal of sovereign economy, So it was
Speaker 1: simply China shooting back at itself. Um, that was sort
Speaker 1: of the Chinese view of Taiwan. You know, it takes
Speaker 1: many shades of of of dark gray here, but one
Speaker 1: of them is that it's essentially a rebellious would be
Speaker 1: a secessionist area, and they're trying to put that down
Speaker 1: and reclaim control. I mean, this goes way way back.
Speaker 1: It's just that it's become a lot scarier recently because
Speaker 1: of let's talk about why. How much of this has
Speaker 1: to do with Nancy Pelosi and the two other congressional
Speaker 1: journeys to Taiwan. I mean, is it as simple as
Speaker 1: that I realized that we were we were already having
Speaker 1: some issues here, but there's a long history of issues.
Speaker 1: The two presidents were to speak again, and then things
Speaker 1: caught fire when Nancy Pelosi got on an airplane. Yes,
Speaker 1: so we've certainly seen in the last several weeks a
Speaker 1: significant uptick tick in visible signs of US connections and
Speaker 1: support for Taiwan, and the congressional delegations, the first one
Speaker 1: led by Pelosi too, since then have certainly done that,
Speaker 1: but I think it's just another tick up in a
Speaker 1: long standing trajectory. And basically the dynamic is the U
Speaker 1: SCS China is trying to coerce Taiwan more and more,
Speaker 1: and the US pushes back against that, and China then
Speaker 1: sees that a stronger US interference. So it's just layering
Speaker 1: one of these things on top of another. As for
Speaker 1: the Pelosi even is that. Of course it was somewhat
Speaker 1: provocative on its own terms, but I think what really
Speaker 1: drove it was China said, don't do this, and the
Speaker 1: US didn't do much to stop it. And then we
Speaker 1: were off to the races. Well we were. We were
Speaker 1: joined by members of the second uh Codell, Congressman Gara
Speaker 1: Mendi among them. He on Bloomberg Radio and I spoke
Speaker 1: yesterday with Senator Marshall Blackburn, who just returned from Taiwan
Speaker 1: and and tried to raise the bar here a little bit.
Speaker 1: And as I asked her, she referred to Taiwan as
Speaker 1: a country these things are are listened to and parst
Speaker 1: carefully in Beijing. That's considered very offensive UH And I
Speaker 1: asked her if she intended to do that. She had
Speaker 1: referred to Taiwan as a country at SEPAK earlier this
Speaker 1: year as well. Listened to her answer, Senator Blackburn, Yes,
Speaker 1: indeed it was. I think it is important for us
Speaker 1: to to recognize Taiwan. They share our values of democracy,
Speaker 1: a freedom of independence. They have a founding father, they
Speaker 1: have a constitution, they have a president. How much does
Speaker 1: rhetoric like that from an American lawmaker damage the relationship
Speaker 1: with Beijing. It's certainly not helpful. Of course, terms like
Speaker 1: country and recognized can be used in a colloquial sense,
Speaker 1: but China will read them and literal sense, and the
Speaker 1: country implies separate sovereign state. That runs a foul of
Speaker 1: the ambiguities baked into the US one China policy which
Speaker 1: says the status of Taiwan is basically undetermined. Uh, and
Speaker 1: recognition if we're talking diplomatic recognition, treating Taiwan as a
Speaker 1: country with the government and we that's just inconsistent with
Speaker 1: where US policy has been. Now again, China can be
Speaker 1: a little disingenuous in this. They know that Marsha Blackburn
Speaker 1: is probably not speaking super precisely, and even if she
Speaker 1: is trying to push the envelope on this, which she
Speaker 1: very well might be trying to do their people in
Speaker 1: Congress who are pushing for formal diplomatic relations and so on.
Speaker 1: It's still not administration policy, but China takes it as
Speaker 1: further evidence that the US is kind of stealthily and
Speaker 1: sneakily subporting those who would push for greater, you know,
Speaker 1: full fledged formal independence in Taiwan. Seemed to be looking
Speaker 1: for an excuse here, and we've got a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of people lined up to provide them. Yep. There's profound
Speaker 1: distrust on both sides and a real willingness to to
Speaker 1: put the worst possible reading on them. That's kind of
Speaker 1: why we're in the dangerous spiral we're in now. So
Speaker 1: where does this go in in the next year, will
Speaker 1: say Jagra for the remainder the Biden administration, is it
Speaker 1: actually time to start taking another look at the One
Speaker 1: China policy because we seem to be crossing it, at
Speaker 1: least rhetorically, fairly often. Yeah. So, I think the authoritative
Speaker 1: statements foreign policy still come primarily from the administration, the
Speaker 1: president and his cabinet and so on, with Congress of
Speaker 1: course having some influence, and Biden himself has has edged
Speaker 1: a little farther out with his discussions of obligations to
Speaker 1: defend Taiwan and so on. But the US still continues
Speaker 1: to cling to the One China policy, and I think
Speaker 1: that makes sense. It would be truly disruptive to go elsewhere.
Speaker 1: I don't think you'll even find leaders in Taiwan who
Speaker 1: want to see that bedrock of the stability that has
Speaker 1: more or less persisted in the Strait for decades now
Speaker 1: to come apart. So the trick is to find ways
Speaker 1: of pushing back against Chinese coercion, which entails showing stronger
Speaker 1: support for Taiwan that don't cross whatever China's red lines
Speaker 1: are well at the same time not letting China to
Speaker 1: essentially to exercise a Heckler's veto and to find what
Speaker 1: US policy has to be. It's a delicate dance, and
Speaker 1: there are too many people that danced for right now
Speaker 1: to send a clear We're talking with Jacques Delile on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound on as we consider the relationship that China
Speaker 1: has with Russia. It really informs what's been happening on
Speaker 1: this side of the world as well. And in a
Speaker 1: major headline that if you haven't heard, if you're if
Speaker 1: you're on your way home, you might not have seen
Speaker 1: on the terminal that Michael gorber Chef has died. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Soviet leader, of course, who helped to end the
Speaker 1: Cold War dies at Jacques. I don't know how old
Speaker 1: you have to be for that to mean something to you.
Speaker 1: That the in the ideas of Parastroika and glass Noze
Speaker 1: from that period of time. Uh. But you know, I'll
Speaker 1: spare you the end of an era uh line here.
Speaker 1: But we're certainly reminded of a different world in Russia
Speaker 1: and in that part of the world as we recall
Speaker 1: the life of Michael Gorbachev. Yeah, I mean it's I
Speaker 1: am certainly old enough to remember Gorbachev in Paris and
Speaker 1: Tiana men the democracy movement in China which coincider and
Speaker 1: in fact Gorbachev played a role in that. He was
Speaker 1: an inspirational figure to many of the students on Tianamen
Speaker 1: Square and eighty nine calling for democratic reforms in China.
Speaker 1: And after he left is when you know, the protests
Speaker 1: accelerated and we saw the crack. But I think what
Speaker 1: he represents is the possibility of a path toward reform
Speaker 1: and openness, a greater political openness, a degree of democracy
Speaker 1: in a communist style authoritarian system. But what do we
Speaker 1: get a statement from the Kremlin on this? Or does
Speaker 1: Vladimir say nothing? I haven't heard him. Yeah, well I
Speaker 1: haven't either, Shack, but I'll let you know what I hear.
Speaker 1: Jacqu delil is great to talk with you from the
Speaker 1: Study of Contemporary China, the Center of at the University
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania Law School. Well assemble our panel. Next, Joe Matthew,
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg sound on on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: The news from Taiwan today. Shooting at if only test
Speaker 1: firing or warning shots, I should say, Chinese drones over
Speaker 1: islands is just the latest wrinkling comes two days after
Speaker 1: the United States sent two Navy vessels into the Taiwan
Speaker 1: straight for the first time since Nancy Pelosi's visit. These
Speaker 1: weren't just any vessels, by the way, Takonda ROGA class
Speaker 1: guided missile cruisers. And how about it the U S. S.
Speaker 1: Antietam and the U S. S. Chancellor's pill Uh, of course,
Speaker 1: themed after two Civil War battles. Not a coincidence, I'm assuming.
Speaker 1: As we read on the terminal based on Bloomberg data.
Speaker 1: These were the first missile laden cruisers that we have sent.
Speaker 1: In the past five years through the stray. At least
Speaker 1: a quarter of the transits announced by the Navy have
Speaker 1: involved two vessels. None have involved two cruisers. According to Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: how much of that had to do with the drones.
Speaker 1: All this stuff seems to be a chain reaction between
Speaker 1: China and Taiwan's So some of the panel. Genie Schanzano
Speaker 1: is here Democratic analyst of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, along
Speaker 1: with Bill mc gidley today former White House Cabinet Secretary
Speaker 1: during the Trump administration, and turning out the vocal group.
Speaker 1: Great to have both of you with us here, Genie,
Speaker 1: it seems like another layer every time we talk about Taiwan.
Speaker 1: When you hear of Taiwan firing, even if warning shots
Speaker 1: at at anything that belongs to China, does this create
Speaker 1: a new worry for our military? It does? And I
Speaker 1: think Jacques's point about a dangerous spiral is a really
Speaker 1: important one, because you know, in this context, even the
Speaker 1: smallest things can become enormously consequential. And so I think
Speaker 1: you know that is every anybody's concerned, and you know
Speaker 1: you were talking about Pelosi's visit, and of course Marsha Blackburn.
Speaker 1: And today we have the governor of Arizona landing in
Speaker 1: Taiwan for two days, and the Biden administration. It was
Speaker 1: just yesterday we were getting reporting that they have asked
Speaker 1: for one billion dollar arms sales to Taiwan. Now that's
Speaker 1: still being worked on, but let's not forget what that
Speaker 1: means to China. Taiwan's military budget is fifteen billion total,
Speaker 1: so that's a pretty big amount over one one billion,
Speaker 1: and so all of these you know, quote unquote small
Speaker 1: things can lead China to react or overreact, not to
Speaker 1: mention any sort of dangerous accident like the shooting down
Speaker 1: of a you know, an airline or something like that.
Speaker 1: So I think it is a curious, you know, a
Speaker 1: really scary time as we watch sort of the back
Speaker 1: and forth over there, what's your take on this bill
Speaker 1: and how concerned are you when you do hear about
Speaker 1: its Genie points out an important story almost a billion
Speaker 1: dollars maybe a little more uh in missiles and radar
Speaker 1: systems that the US is preparing, according to our sources,
Speaker 1: to sell to Taiwan, realizing that we have helped them historically,
Speaker 1: but for this all to be happening right now, UH
Speaker 1: makes you wonder why did we send the cruise ships
Speaker 1: up the cruise missile ships I should say, up the Straight?
Speaker 1: And why is China flying drones around Taiwan? Well, I
Speaker 1: think the hope is is that bill sending the the
Speaker 1: cruisers through the Straight, but also the sale of arms
Speaker 1: UH to Taiwan, which I believe will get bipartisan support.
Speaker 1: UM is hopefully designed to send a message piece through
Speaker 1: strength and that the real language that the Chinese Communist
Speaker 1: Party is going to understand is that this isn't something
Speaker 1: that they're going to be able to do under the
Speaker 1: putent theory of taking over Ukraine in two weeks. And
Speaker 1: I think is you begin to see Ukraine get bogged down.
Speaker 1: And I don't think you can dec couple what's happening
Speaker 1: in Ukraine from what's happening with China with the probing
Speaker 1: and the incursions by the Chinese, whether it's the flights
Speaker 1: or the missiles, are now the drones UM probing UH
Speaker 1: you know Taiwanese airspace. UM. I don't think you can
Speaker 1: decouple those. And I think that the lesson that we've
Speaker 1: learned throughout history is that peace does come through straight
Speaker 1: and I think the United States and asserting the freedom
Speaker 1: of the seas with the sailing through the Strait, but
Speaker 1: also saying that they're going to supply arms as they
Speaker 1: traditionally have to the Taiwanese with a strong bipartisan support,
Speaker 1: UM is going to demonstrate resolved to keep that region peaceful. UM,
Speaker 1: and that cooler heads need to prevail. What do you
Speaker 1: make of the rhetoric from Senator Blackburn, Genie? Should should
Speaker 1: American lawmakers be referring to Taiwan as a country? Uh?
Speaker 1: The rhetoric we heard from Nancy Pelosi while she was
Speaker 1: there aimed directly at President She even even making reference
Speaker 1: to him as a sexist, saying he wouldn't have gone
Speaker 1: after her if she had been a man. All of
Speaker 1: this stuff is adding up to something in Beijing. Is
Speaker 1: it part of the strategy. Maybe it's a good thing.
Speaker 1: I'm genuinely curious if they're hurting or helping, you know,
Speaker 1: I like I asked about Pelosi's visit. UM. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: always curious to say, you know, what is the policy
Speaker 1: outcome that benefits the United States and not these lawmakers
Speaker 1: in particular, or even a party or even Congress as
Speaker 1: a whole. And with Pelosi's visit, I struggled to find
Speaker 1: the upside there. You know, Bill was just talking about Ukraine,
Speaker 1: and as you know, we are looking at the situation
Speaker 1: there in Ukraine. One of the big question marks becomes,
Speaker 1: what if we, you know, in these movements and these
Speaker 1: efforts and these statements, you know, encourage China to take
Speaker 1: more supportive measures visa VI Russia in Ukraine. Um, not
Speaker 1: that they would do that, but you know, this issue
Speaker 1: of an upside. So I don't see the benefit of
Speaker 1: sort of keep poking the bear, if you will. That's
Speaker 1: not a projection of power in your own I don't
Speaker 1: see the benefit to the United Stations. I think that's
Speaker 1: why the administration, with Pelosi's visit, wasn't that excited about it.
Speaker 1: If there was a real benefit, that would be one thing.
Speaker 1: If there's not, I'm not sure it is advised to
Speaker 1: keep going like this. Genie Chanzano and Bill McKinley make
Speaker 1: up our panel today. They're back after we check in
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg National politics reporter Christian Hall. President Biden drawn
Speaker 1: some lines today in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump's gonna draw more
Speaker 1: later this week, and we'll dig into what's happening driving
Speaker 1: the campaign coming up. This is Bloomberg. President Biden says
Speaker 1: he is not done when it comes to the issue
Speaker 1: of stopping gun violence. He held an event today in
Speaker 1: wilkes Bury, Pennsylvania. Wilkes Barry. By the way, if you're
Speaker 1: wondering thirty seven billion dollars in crime prevention, you start
Speaker 1: thinking about. It's got a name, uh, the Safer America Plan,
Speaker 1: and it breaks down into a bunch of grants, incentives,
Speaker 1: help higher additional police officers, clear court backlogs to solve cases,
Speaker 1: a grant program for cities and states to use to
Speaker 1: promote violence prevention. Uh, there's a lot in here. As
Speaker 1: the President reaches for a refrain that was used against
Speaker 1: Democrats to try to gain traction in Pennsylvania. Here he
Speaker 1: is today is based on a simple notion. When it
Speaker 1: comes to public safety to this nation, the answer is
Speaker 1: not defund the police. It's fund the police. Fund the police.
Speaker 1: As we heard him say during the State of the
Speaker 1: Union address, a hundred thousand additional police officers for communities
Speaker 1: to hire and train with the better part of thirteen
Speaker 1: billion dollars over the next five years. Did you think
Speaker 1: this is what we'd be talking about two months out
Speaker 1: from November? Of course, gun safety is one of the
Speaker 1: big accomplishments that President Biden wants to take on the trail.
Speaker 1: Look at the list right, the legislative accomplishments. You can
Speaker 1: add in forest structure to that. You can add the
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act, whatever you want to call it, the
Speaker 1: Chips Act, the burn Pits Act. This is the portfolio.
Speaker 1: Does it matter though, when you when you see a
Speaker 1: president with approval ratings tracking the price of gas every day?
Speaker 1: I think so last time we checked low forties. I'll
Speaker 1: take another look. And this is where we start with
Speaker 1: Christian Hall, who joins us from Washington here at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: National Politics Reporter. Christian, Welcome, It's great to have you. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is gonna be one of three trips. As I
Speaker 1: mentioned to Pennsylvania, crime prevention is something that we had
Speaker 1: been hearing was gonna be held against Democrats in the fall.
Speaker 1: Can the president try to own this issue? Hi, Joe,
Speaker 1: thanks so much for having me. I mean, I think, um,
Speaker 1: police funding, it's gonna be difficult for Democrats. I think
Speaker 1: the question that they're going to ask when they come
Speaker 1: back into Congress is how can we help ourselves? UM,
Speaker 1: and police funding definitely will be one of those challenges
Speaker 1: for them. There have been some lingering disagreements between progress
Speaker 1: sis and moderates on law enforcement. UM. A lot of
Speaker 1: frontliners see this as an opportunity to kind of pin
Speaker 1: a hole in the defund the police attacks from Republicans,
Speaker 1: but progressives in CVC members are wary of funding without
Speaker 1: accountability measures and you know, UM how it's going to
Speaker 1: impact minority community specifically. This is going nowhere right on
Speaker 1: Capitol Hill, the Safer America's Act. No. I mean, it
Speaker 1: really is going to be a challenge for Democrats to
Speaker 1: be able to come together on this. Maybe something in
Speaker 1: the House. I know Nancy Pelosi was working on a
Speaker 1: series of bills, but this is UH. It would be
Speaker 1: funded through by the way the existing budget request for
Speaker 1: three UM. The President's going back to Pennsylvania on Thursday
Speaker 1: a primetime address Christian in which he will talk about
Speaker 1: the battle for the soul of America, soul of the nation,
Speaker 1: something he talks about in his speeches, and then he'll
Speaker 1: go back again for Labor Day, where he's going to
Speaker 1: march in a parade. Are we to believe that the
Speaker 1: balance of power will be decided in Pennsylvania. What's what's
Speaker 1: going on there that's bringing him three times in a week.
Speaker 1: I mean, Democrats see Pennsylvania as a real pickup opportunity.
Speaker 1: I think the Cook Political report showed that the contest
Speaker 1: has shifted from a toss up to leaning Democrats. Dr
Speaker 1: Ross Feederman race. Yes, Dr Ozz Federman, I mean Fetterman
Speaker 1: has been incredibly effective at, you know, fighting this race
Speaker 1: through the media. He took a little bit of a
Speaker 1: hiatus after suffering a stroke a while back, and now he's,
Speaker 1: you know, doing a really good job. He's leading in fundraising,
Speaker 1: out raising OZ by over eight million dollars. So Democrats
Speaker 1: see this as a real opportunity. Dr Rozz will be
Speaker 1: on stage with Donald Trump. That's the other big one
Speaker 1: this week happening also in wilkes Bury on Saturday night.
Speaker 1: UH Doug Mastriano will be there an election denying UH nominee,
Speaker 1: the Republican nominee for for governor. UH. And we see
Speaker 1: the headline today that seven more Republican leaders are endorsing
Speaker 1: Democrat Josh Shapiro for the governor of Pennsylvania. What can
Speaker 1: Donald Trump do to get either of these campaigns moving again?
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, people are calling into question the
Speaker 1: impact that an endorsement from Donald Trump still has. And
Speaker 1: even though there are some races that he's endorsed candidates
Speaker 1: and you know, uh, he hasn't been as helpful. I
Speaker 1: do think that an endorsement from Donald Trump is still
Speaker 1: something that candidates want to have and can have really
Speaker 1: you know, good impact on the ability to win. We
Speaker 1: talked about Joe Biden's list of accomplishments. There's still a
Speaker 1: shopping list. Senate comes back next week, right then the
Speaker 1: House after that. What could possibly happen and let's be
Speaker 1: let's be honest with each other here, Christian, between now
Speaker 1: and November. Uh, is it? Is it going to be
Speaker 1: the normal kick the can try to figure out some
Speaker 1: kind of a spending bill or is there anything else
Speaker 1: in new legislation that this Congress can pass well? Again,
Speaker 1: as I said earlier, I really believe that Democrats are
Speaker 1: going to try to find legislation that can help them
Speaker 1: ahead of the mid terms. I think one thing might
Speaker 1: be same sex marriage. You know, sevent of Americans support
Speaker 1: same sex marriage, and by Senate Democrats bringing Chuck Schumer
Speaker 1: bringing that to the floor. Um, it could put Republicans
Speaker 1: in a little bit of a squeeze, people like Ron Johnson,
Speaker 1: you know, ahead of his race against me and Deela Barnes.
Speaker 1: It can be a real issue for some Republicans. The
Speaker 1: President again will speak in prime time. And by the way,
Speaker 1: I'm not assuming that a lot of networks are going
Speaker 1: to be carrying this some primetime. It's really a kind
Speaker 1: of a campaign event, even though he's speaking as the president.
Speaker 1: Uh on Thursday night, Is this gonna be ultra maga
Speaker 1: equals semi fascist or what's going to be the address?
Speaker 1: Was today the dress rehearsal. I mean, I think President
Speaker 1: Biden is going to try to pick up on the
Speaker 1: momentum that Democrats have right now. I mean they are
Speaker 1: just coming off the heels of the student loan program. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck engineer
Speaker 1: ballot polling. UM. Just earlier this month, abortion rights activists
Speaker 1: were able to turn back Kansas's state constitutional amendment. So yeah,
Speaker 1: I think they have a lot of a good chance
Speaker 1: um in the mid terms, come see us again. Christian Hall,
Speaker 1: National politics reporter, in Washington at Bloomberg will reassemble the
Speaker 1: panel next for their take on this. It did sound
Speaker 1: a bit like a dress rehearsal to me. Even raised
Speaker 1: his voice a few times. Joe Biden back in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 1: This is sound on on Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg
Speaker 1: sound on on Bloomberg Radio. President Biden testing his political muscle.
Speaker 1: As I read on the terminalist mid term travel Blitz begins,
Speaker 1: I guess travel Blitz of Pennsylvania to be exact. He's
Speaker 1: in wilkes Bury today, He'll be back Thursday in Philadelphia
Speaker 1: for the prime time address, and then marching with a
Speaker 1: guy named John Fetterman on Monday. Yeah, there were a
Speaker 1: lot of stink was made about the fact that Fetterman,
Speaker 1: of course, the Democratic nominee for Senate, was not going
Speaker 1: to be with Joe Biden today well or on Thursday.
Speaker 1: That's a little bit of a different matter. I was
Speaker 1: gonna be marching in the parade with him on Monday.
Speaker 1: Hopefully that's gonna make it all right here one out
Speaker 1: of three, I don't know the president today. Tried to
Speaker 1: pappoll writ here he is and by the way, he
Speaker 1: couldn't be here today, we spoke Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman.
Speaker 1: He's when I say he's a powerful voice, that's the
Speaker 1: guy I used to be in the old day. Is
Speaker 1: a pretty good athlete. If someone was really big and tough,
Speaker 1: you said I wouldn't screw with him about a sledgehammer. Well,
Speaker 1: I tell you what. Fetterman is a hell of a guy,
Speaker 1: a powerful voice for working people, and he's gonna make
Speaker 1: your great United States senator. You're gonna make your great
Speaker 1: United States senator. Sort of a glancing reference to the
Speaker 1: health of the candidate. Yeah, he's a big dude. And
Speaker 1: Dr ros has been spending a lot of time talking
Speaker 1: about the fact that he had a stroke. Uh and
Speaker 1: according to Dr Roz doesn't eat enough vegetables. But this
Speaker 1: is the state of politics in Pennsylvania. Let's reassemble the panel.
Speaker 1: Genie's back with us. Jennie Chanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor and
Speaker 1: Democratic analyst with Bill McGinley today, former White House Cabinet
Speaker 1: Secretary in the Trump administration, now principal with the Vogel Group, Bill,
Speaker 1: when you start talking about the fight for the soul
Speaker 1: of the nation, that's gonna be a primetime address for
Speaker 1: Joe Biden on Thursday night. Uh, it sounded today like
Speaker 1: that was his dress rehearsal, like he was given the test,
Speaker 1: the script a bit of a test here. Uh where's
Speaker 1: he going with this and who's the audience? Well, I
Speaker 1: think he's trying to do a reset pre Labor Day
Speaker 1: because post labor dates when the election really begins. And
Speaker 1: unfortunately for the Biden ministry ration, name calling of Democrats
Speaker 1: are Republicans and independence isn't going to change the economic
Speaker 1: reality that Americans are dealing with. I mean, real hourly
Speaker 1: wages have fallen by three point six percent this year
Speaker 1: when compared to inflation. Inflation still at historic highs, and
Speaker 1: according to Bloomberg, one in six households are behind other
Speaker 1: utility payments, which is about twenty million Americans. These are
Speaker 1: the economic realities that the American voters, especially those voters
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, that we're reliant on the fossil fuel industry,
Speaker 1: including fracking, that the President has and through his policies,
Speaker 1: has really attacked and we can't forget that. The wrong
Speaker 1: track number for the United States has been above seventy
Speaker 1: for almost a year, and gravitational they've only gone up
Speaker 1: a couple of points. It's only gone up a couple
Speaker 1: of points, even as gas prices have fallen Genie by
Speaker 1: something like seventy six straight days. Is that? Is that
Speaker 1: what he should mention? You know that we're fighting for
Speaker 1: the soul of America and the gas pump. Well, you
Speaker 1: know what Republicans want to talk about and should be
Speaker 1: talking about is exactly what Bill is just talking about.
Speaker 1: The problem is what you described earlier, which is that
Speaker 1: you have a current president and this is not a
Speaker 1: referendum on him. It's going to be a choice between
Speaker 1: Biden and what many moderates and independence will decide these
Speaker 1: districts see as the sort of extremists and craziness of
Speaker 1: a Donald Trump, because look at what's happening. President Biden
Speaker 1: there today, Donald Trump there on Saturday, President Biden back
Speaker 1: there on Monday. And this is what the Democrats are doing.
Speaker 1: This is why he is talking about these issues because
Speaker 1: he wants to make this a referendum on the Trump administration.
Speaker 1: He doesn't want to talk about inflation. He may want
Speaker 1: to mention gas the price is going lower. What he
Speaker 1: wants to say is we are we have returned some
Speaker 1: sense of normalcy we got things done. I want to
Speaker 1: appeal to the centrist, to the pragmatists. I want to
Speaker 1: appeal to Americans with common sense, and he's slipping the strip,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, on this issue, police safety and all
Speaker 1: these other things. If they're talking about the economic things,
Speaker 1: Bill is right, Republicans win hand down. But that's not
Speaker 1: what they're being able to talk about. And that's the
Speaker 1: problem for Republicans. This one out of three not bad
Speaker 1: for John Federman. Jennie, Well, you know, we always make
Speaker 1: a big deal out of this stuff, but I don't
Speaker 1: know why he didn't want to greet him today. There
Speaker 1: was nothing worth showing up for the photo op. You
Speaker 1: don't want to overdo it. Yeah, you know, I think
Speaker 1: he's he's the lieutenant governor, he's on the campaign trail.
Speaker 1: He's gonna be there Monday. Pennsylvania is a fairly friendly
Speaker 1: state to Joe Biden. It's his birth state. He's got
Speaker 1: a lot of history there. But you look at some
Speaker 1: other states and they're not as friendly. And you do
Speaker 1: have senatorial candidates in other states who are a little
Speaker 1: bit less maybe a little bit less welcoming, and that's
Speaker 1: what the Biden administration is trying to showcase to those
Speaker 1: like the Maggie Hassan's of the world, we can come
Speaker 1: there and help you. Pennsylvania though he is there, and
Speaker 1: don't forget they're in the eighth district. That's a district
Speaker 1: that Trump won in sixteen and twenty. They really want
Speaker 1: to show that Democrats can do what they did, what
Speaker 1: we're I am in New York in the nineteenth and
Speaker 1: they can overperform what Trump was doing and what Republicans
Speaker 1: were able to do. Let they do that with an
Speaker 1: argument about abortion rights bill that seemed to be the
Speaker 1: differentiator in New York. Well, let's also understand what happened
Speaker 1: in the New York nineteenth district. It was held on
Speaker 1: primary election day where independents were not allowed to vote
Speaker 1: in the special election. So you don't see that. I
Speaker 1: do not see that as a bell whether it was
Speaker 1: a pre Labor Day doldrums of August uh independence couldn't
Speaker 1: vote in the primaries, and I think it depressed the
Speaker 1: independent turnout. Um independents are breaking hard to Republicans. Hispanics
Speaker 1: are breaking toward Republicans. African American males are breaking toward Republicans,
Speaker 1: not only on the economic issues, but also the crime issue.
Speaker 1: I think the bill tell me that across the country.
Speaker 1: Is this a false narrative? Is it a false narrative?
Speaker 1: Sorry for interrupting. That we're hearing that that that the
Speaker 1: ground is shifting, that Republicans are suddenly on their heels
Speaker 1: going into November, they'll barely take the house, is what
Speaker 1: I hear. Bill. I well, I I gotta say this,
Speaker 1: and you know, I, for one, have been saying this,
Speaker 1: and every smart consultant that I talked to or listen
Speaker 1: to has been saying this. Way of elections and election
Speaker 1: victories aren't something that you sit back and watch come
Speaker 1: up on the shore. There's something that you have to earn.
Speaker 1: You've got to get out there and engage the voters.
Speaker 1: You've got to be visible and put out your agenda.
Speaker 1: And that's what every Republican candidate is going to be doing.
Speaker 1: I mean, nobody is satisfied with the economy right now
Speaker 1: and what's happening in terms of middle income and lower
Speaker 1: income and working class budgets compared to the soaring prices
Speaker 1: that they're dealing with. Nobody is happy with the high
Speaker 1: crime rates, whether you're in suburbia, urban or rural areas.
Speaker 1: I mean, if you the Democrats and you know, want
Speaker 1: to try to own the crime message, I think every
Speaker 1: Republican in America is going to say, let's have that
Speaker 1: debate because Democrats own the crime issue because of d
Speaker 1: a's like gascon out in Los Angeles, the one in Manhattan,
Speaker 1: and the others who are doing no cash bail where
Speaker 1: every night you're seeing something where a violent offender is
Speaker 1: arrested and brought into jail and then immediately released and
Speaker 1: goes out and does it again. Well, listen, crime rates
Speaker 1: are soaring. If you ask miss McConnell, though, he'll tell
Speaker 1: you that that Republicans may not be able to take
Speaker 1: the Senate because not even of issues, because of candidate quality.
Speaker 1: That was the phrase that that he chose. Bill. Are
Speaker 1: you worried about states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Arizona that
Speaker 1: seemed to keep coming up here? I think every state
Speaker 1: that you just mentioned is always going to be very close.
Speaker 1: Um kind of war of attrition politically, type of election
Speaker 1: where you're gonna have to scratch and claw for every boat.
Speaker 1: And I think both parties have known that. I mean,
Speaker 1: and Emerson Pole just came out and Georgia's showing uh
Speaker 1: Walker up two points on Warrnoff, um, whereas a lot
Speaker 1: of people were saying Warrnoff was running away with that.
Speaker 1: If you look at the polling out of Pennsylvania, that
Speaker 1: is tightening, the same thing with Ohio. But you also
Speaker 1: have places like Nevada where Adam Assault is doing really well. Um.
Speaker 1: You look at some of the polling that comes out
Speaker 1: of Washington State and Patty Murray's got a fight on
Speaker 1: her hand the first time in a long time. So
Speaker 1: you're saying, do you see Republicans taking the Senate bill
Speaker 1: before I bring Genie back in? I think. I think
Speaker 1: Republicans have a real shot to take a narrow majority
Speaker 1: in the Senate. I think they're going to take the House.
Speaker 1: The question is going to be the margin. But I
Speaker 1: do think when people start paying attention post Labor Day,
Speaker 1: because remember all American families right now are finishing up
Speaker 1: the summer vacations and kids are getting back to school,
Speaker 1: They're starting to get into the routine. If you talk
Speaker 1: to an American family sitting around the kitchen table, I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, politics is not top of mine. It's what
Speaker 1: are we doing to get the kids ready, not only
Speaker 1: for school, but the extracurriculars and everything else. Yeah, we've
Speaker 1: been back to school for two weeks here in Virginia.
Speaker 1: But who's counting Jennie. Look, So here's the Here's the
Speaker 1: threat or the risk I guess I should say for
Speaker 1: Democrats is complacency. Right, you start hearing all of the
Speaker 1: stories about well, listen, it's the Democrats Senate to lose
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, the House may not be that bad.
Speaker 1: Gosh will come back and maybe do another reconciliation bill
Speaker 1: next year. Uh do you worry about Democrats letting their
Speaker 1: foot off the gas right now? The reality is there
Speaker 1: is probably over a seven or eight out of ten
Speaker 1: chants that Republicans take the House. The question is going
Speaker 1: to be by how much. Historically this should be an
Speaker 1: enormous victory for Republicans, but you've seen Cook and others,
Speaker 1: they've sort of downgraded some of those forecasts. Still with
Speaker 1: the GOP taking the House, the Senate has always been
Speaker 1: more up for grabs. And what Democrats are responding to is,
Speaker 1: of course, these signs, which is all we can look at.
Speaker 1: And the signs are things like Republicans did incredibly well
Speaker 1: before the overturning of Row in the specials and in
Speaker 1: the Virginia New Jersey gubernatorial elections, they were over performing
Speaker 1: in the double digits in Texas, California, Virginia, New Jersey
Speaker 1: post the Dobs decision that has turned around, and you
Speaker 1: also have Kansas. You you have Kansas, you have Minnesota
Speaker 1: of Nebraska, and you have the two in New York.
Speaker 1: Now does that dictate what's going to happen. Absolutely not.
Speaker 1: We've still got ten weeks to go on this thing.
Speaker 1: But those are the kinds of signs that, you know.
Speaker 1: The other thing I would just say to watch for
Speaker 1: is the gender gap amongst new voter registrants post Dobs
Speaker 1: enormous number of women, particularly young women registering. That's something
Speaker 1: to watch. So it is going to be a battle
Speaker 1: of our turnout. This is incredibly tight. I would still
Speaker 1: say Republicans take the House and the Senate is up
Speaker 1: for grabs because we've only had a couple of elections
Speaker 1: in the modern era when the White House, the party
Speaker 1: in the White House has actually managed to you know,
Speaker 1: hold hold their own in the Congress. So that would
Speaker 1: be an exception, very unusual if Democrats did that. But
Speaker 1: the problem for Republicans is they haven't really been able
Speaker 1: to sort of move in the way they thought we
Speaker 1: thought they would six months ago. Well, let's remind ourselves
Speaker 1: of where we are, and you both did, and in
Speaker 1: each of your last answer, which was still August, we
Speaker 1: still have a ways to go, and the desire to
Speaker 1: write the narrative as we speak here in real time
Speaker 1: is always great. Genie, thank you so much for being
Speaker 1: with us and being part of our panel here today. Bill. Thanks,
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg