1
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,520
Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast.

2
00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:15,040
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway.

3
00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:16,760
Speaker 2: And I'm Joe. Isn't thal Joe?

4
00:00:16,800 --> 00:00:19,239
Speaker 1: Do you remember what we were doing this time last year?

5
00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:23,200
Speaker 2: No?

6
00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,640
Speaker 3: Oh no, no, I have no idea, And that feels

7
00:00:26,640 --> 00:00:28,680
Speaker 3: like ages ago, So no, I have no idea.

8
00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:32,560
Speaker 1: We were actually talking to Sultan Posar about his vision

9
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,559
Speaker 1: of a Breton three. Do you remember that?

10
00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:41,800
Speaker 3: Okay, yes, yes, absolutely, I do remember that conversation very specifically,

11
00:00:42,400 --> 00:00:47,080
Speaker 3: setting aside that sort of Bretton Wood's three framework specifically,

12
00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,599
Speaker 3: I do think like overall, like he sort of anticipated

13
00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,160
Speaker 3: extremely well a lot of the discussions that people are having,

14
00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:56,520
Speaker 3: like over the course of the next year, and then

15
00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,000
Speaker 3: so it's some respects, I think that's held up well.

16
00:00:59,320 --> 00:00:59,520
Speaker 2: Right.

17
00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,360
Speaker 1: So, there were a lot of different themes in that note,

18
00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,240
Speaker 1: including this idea of more of an emphasis on real

19
00:01:05,280 --> 00:01:08,920
Speaker 1: assets or commodities. But one of the big ideas that

20
00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:12,400
Speaker 1: was in there was this theme of a more multi

21
00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:17,160
Speaker 1: polar world and possible challenges to US hegemony in the

22
00:01:17,200 --> 00:01:22,480
Speaker 1: financial system, including the dollars very unique role in that system.

23
00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,680
Speaker 1: And while it is true that the dollars spent most

24
00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:29,280
Speaker 1: of the past year being really strong, and we put

25
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,039
Speaker 1: out a couple episodes on that. I think we have

26
00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:36,720
Speaker 1: seen efforts at de dollarization, or at least we've seen

27
00:01:36,760 --> 00:01:41,840
Speaker 1: a lot of discussion of dedollarization that has really increased

28
00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:42,959
Speaker 1: in the same time period.

29
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's sort of a few interesting dimensions here. So

30
00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 3: for one, of course, like price does what it's going

31
00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,360
Speaker 3: to do in the short term, and ultimately I don't

32
00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:54,559
Speaker 3: think like prices the ultimate orbitter, but you know, late

33
00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:58,280
Speaker 3: last year or middle of last year, the dollar rallied

34
00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:00,520
Speaker 3: a lot. The other thing is, you know, you get

35
00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:04,400
Speaker 3: these headlines about dedollarization or the rise of the un

36
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,320
Speaker 3: or some barrel of oil somewhere in the world was

37
00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,200
Speaker 3: not priced in dollars, and everyone starts to flip out

38
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:14,120
Speaker 3: about whatever that means. And on the one hand, okay,

39
00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:16,960
Speaker 3: that's interesting. But on the other hand, like again you

40
00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:19,760
Speaker 3: and I, like how many times have we heard this story?

41
00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,840
Speaker 1: People love talking about this possibility.

42
00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:27,400
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, Oh suddenly some benchmark barrel of oil somewhere

43
00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,359
Speaker 3: is gonna be priced at something and that's the end

44
00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:33,320
Speaker 3: of dollar hedgemony. But I will say, like there's a

45
00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 3: couple things like I don't want to say it's different

46
00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,840
Speaker 3: this well, why I think it's still worth having this

47
00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,960
Speaker 3: conversation because obviously a lot of things have changed. You know,

48
00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,240
Speaker 3: one of my theses that I talk a lot about

49
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,920
Speaker 3: all the time is how like the twenty twenties are

50
00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,240
Speaker 3: sort of the inverse twenty tens, And so I do

51
00:02:50,360 --> 00:02:52,639
Speaker 3: think to some extent it's a good time to revisit

52
00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:55,680
Speaker 3: our assumptions. And when you do start to see you know,

53
00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 3: expanding China trade and so forth, and talk of decoupling

54
00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 3: and rising role of the UN, I think it is

55
00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,440
Speaker 3: worth having that conversation again, even if sometimes it seems

56
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,000
Speaker 3: like some of these end of the dollar stories are

57
00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:10,679
Speaker 3: a little bit overcooked.

58
00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:13,400
Speaker 1: Or premature or premature. On that note, one of the

59
00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:15,480
Speaker 1: things that has been happening is we've heard a lot

60
00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:21,000
Speaker 1: of noise from the Bricks group of countries, so that's Brazil, Russia, India, China,

61
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:26,560
Speaker 1: and South Africa about possibly creating some sort of alternative

62
00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 1: to the dollar. So we really need to dive into

63
00:03:30,080 --> 00:03:34,040
Speaker 1: the de dollarization story from an emerging markets perspective, and

64
00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:37,240
Speaker 1: who better to do that with than with Paul McNamara.

65
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,400
Speaker 1: He's an investment director over at GAM. We've had him

66
00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:42,720
Speaker 1: on the show before and we are going to do

67
00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:44,400
Speaker 1: another deep dive with him now.

68
00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:44,760
Speaker 2: Yeah.

69
00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,640
Speaker 1: Wait, Paul, thanks so much for coming back on all thoughts.

70
00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:49,160
Speaker 2: Thanks very much for having me.

71
00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,480
Speaker 1: So maybe just to begin with give us the state

72
00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:56,360
Speaker 1: of play when it comes to de dollarization talks, because

73
00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,160
Speaker 1: I know there have been all these little bits and

74
00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,720
Speaker 1: pieces over the past year or so, but what has

75
00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:03,480
Speaker 1: jumped out at you the most.

76
00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:06,920
Speaker 4: I think the thing that we're focused on is we've

77
00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:10,720
Speaker 4: seen very big current account surpluses, especially in the oil exporters,

78
00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:14,280
Speaker 4: so Saudi Arabian particular. I mean, Russia is obviously another story.

79
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:16,400
Speaker 4: I mean, the surpluces in China are not as big

80
00:04:16,400 --> 00:04:18,960
Speaker 4: as they've been. But what's been interesting is that the

81
00:04:19,560 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 4: Saudis in particular, and I think that some evidence that

82
00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:26,679
Speaker 4: Abu Dhabi as well have not been pushing money straight

83
00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,560
Speaker 4: into US treasuries or well U S securities markets in particular,

84
00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,160
Speaker 4: but sort of treasury treasuries. I mean, there's there's been

85
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:36,640
Speaker 4: a lot of talk in terms of China for a

86
00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,560
Speaker 4: long time. You know, China has run the Belton Road

87
00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:43,599
Speaker 4: program has clearly been that there is a general drive

88
00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,880
Speaker 4: for those companies which continue to run these big external

89
00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:51,960
Speaker 4: surpluses they're clearly trying to branch out significantly away from well,

90
00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,040
Speaker 4: let's just stick it in medium duration treasuries, you know,

91
00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:59,600
Speaker 4: and if they're really adventurous into listed US equities into

92
00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:04,520
Speaker 4: a all globally diversified basket. It's not just about sanctions

93
00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:08,240
Speaker 4: and what happened to Russia's reserves in the aftermath of

94
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:11,640
Speaker 4: the attack on Ukraine, but clearly that's given it fresh impetus.

95
00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,080
Speaker 2: So okay, so this is interesting.

96
00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:16,600
Speaker 3: There is something going on, like I think it sounds

97
00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:19,479
Speaker 3: like from your answer, and as Tracy and I said

98
00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 3: in the beginning, and I'm sure you've heard it for

99
00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:26,000
Speaker 3: many years and year long in the illustrious career, this

100
00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,000
Speaker 3: l of the dollars over, the dollars over, and usually

101
00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:32,320
Speaker 3: it is sort of overcooked. But just based on even

102
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,440
Speaker 3: just your preliminary answer, it sounds like there is something

103
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:38,520
Speaker 3: going on that maybe there is some impulse to try

104
00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:39,120
Speaker 3: something new.

105
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,240
Speaker 4: I think there is, and I think you mentioned salten Poza,

106
00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:46,560
Speaker 4: this idea of a multipolar world. I mean, we have

107
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,120
Speaker 4: moved away from you know, the US being by far

108
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,600
Speaker 4: the globally dominant economy to China. You know, the Chinese

109
00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,080
Speaker 4: economy is now about the same size as the US.

110
00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,040
Speaker 4: So I mean, clearly there's got to be some sort

111
00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:02,719
Speaker 4: of rebalancing in terms of finance to match the economic

112
00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:06,000
Speaker 4: dominance and the political movement that goes with it.

113
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:06,680
Speaker 2: Absolutely.

114
00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:11,320
Speaker 4: I mean the two people you always hear spoken about

115
00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:14,280
Speaker 4: in this context is well, obviously number one is Sultan.

116
00:06:14,640 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 4: Number two would be Michael Pettis and co author Matthew Klein,

117
00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,440
Speaker 4: who would make the point that, Okay, if you've got

118
00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,720
Speaker 4: these big surpluses being generated, then they have to end

119
00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:27,480
Speaker 4: up somewhere else, and the only place they can end

120
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:29,360
Speaker 4: up is the US, because the US is the only

121
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:33,080
Speaker 4: economic block which is generating these big deficits to soak

122
00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:38,320
Speaker 4: up the surpluses. Historically, I think it's not clear that

123
00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,680
Speaker 4: it's as simple as that, but I think as long

124
00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:44,719
Speaker 4: as the policy in China relies, the whole framework of

125
00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 4: economic policy in China relies on running very big external surpluses,

126
00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 4: they invest a lot, but they save even more. Those

127
00:06:52,480 --> 00:06:55,880
Speaker 4: excess savings, you know, they have to end up somewhere,

128
00:06:56,080 --> 00:06:58,160
Speaker 4: and it is going to be very difficult to put

129
00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,800
Speaker 4: them somewhere else. The question that is historically, you know,

130
00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,560
Speaker 4: difficult is not the same as impossible. You know that

131
00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:07,800
Speaker 4: before the US dollar, you know, you had the sterling zone,

132
00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:10,760
Speaker 4: and ok, it was linked to gold, but you did

133
00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:15,040
Speaker 4: have a reserve currency, which wasn't the dissavor of last resort,

134
00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:17,840
Speaker 4: you know. So I mean there are two things which

135
00:07:17,840 --> 00:07:19,640
Speaker 4: are not the same, which I think are being confused.

136
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,240
Speaker 4: Which is one the rise of China being an economy

137
00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 4: of similar importance to the US, which I think is indisputable.

138
00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:29,480
Speaker 4: And two, you know, does China or the global none

139
00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:33,000
Speaker 4: Western bloc have as many options if they don't want

140
00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:35,960
Speaker 4: to change the policy mix which has been very reliant

141
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:39,280
Speaker 4: on running very large external surfaces.

142
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,600
Speaker 1: So I definitely want to get into more of the

143
00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:44,600
Speaker 1: challenges of you know, moving away from treasuries and into

144
00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,440
Speaker 1: other assets. But before we do that, you mentioned the

145
00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:51,000
Speaker 1: idea that there are some emerging market economies that have

146
00:07:51,160 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 1: been buying fewer treasuries recently, and I guess my question

147
00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 1: is like what is driving that and is it the

148
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:03,480
Speaker 1: case that there definitely trying to move away from US

149
00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:06,920
Speaker 1: exposure or is it the case that maybe in an

150
00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,160
Speaker 1: environment of high rates and inflation and general uncertainty, maybe

151
00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:12,800
Speaker 1: it doesn't make a lot of sense to buy US

152
00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:14,920
Speaker 1: treasuries at that particular moment.

153
00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:16,120
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of things.

154
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,640
Speaker 4: I mean, we have more assertive politics in pretty much

155
00:08:19,720 --> 00:08:23,120
Speaker 4: every large country. We talk about a lot about the bricks,

156
00:08:23,120 --> 00:08:27,160
Speaker 4: which I think is problematic in this context because sort

157
00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,840
Speaker 4: of Russia and South Africa and Brazil really don't matter

158
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:35,160
Speaker 4: that much in a global context, whereas, for example, Saudi Arabia,

159
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,400
Speaker 4: which has you know, very nearly a trillion dollars of

160
00:08:39,000 --> 00:08:42,720
Speaker 4: assets abroad, clearly does you know, and they have different reasons,

161
00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,200
Speaker 4: but you know, if it's NBS in Saudi Arabia, if

162
00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,480
Speaker 4: it's Mody in India, you know, as you go to

163
00:08:47,520 --> 00:08:50,280
Speaker 4: the countries, you know there is more and more pushback

164
00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:54,960
Speaker 4: against you know, US hegemony. However you want to describe it,

165
00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,400
Speaker 4: and I think politics is part of it. The other is,

166
00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,840
Speaker 4: you know one you probably want to diversify a bit

167
00:08:59,880 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 4: more generally too. You know, you're very dependent on FED policy.

168
00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:07,320
Speaker 4: I mean last year was a horrible year for pretty

169
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,640
Speaker 4: much any asset. I mean, clearly you might want to

170
00:09:09,679 --> 00:09:12,160
Speaker 4: look a bit beyond that, you know, so that you

171
00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,360
Speaker 4: know that there's I wouldn't say it's just one reason,

172
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:17,079
Speaker 4: but it really is striking, you know that for example,

173
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:19,240
Speaker 4: just how big the surplus is, especially in the OPEC

174
00:09:19,280 --> 00:09:22,120
Speaker 4: countries have been over the last year, and how little

175
00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,680
Speaker 4: we've seen a tick up, you know, not just in

176
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:30,040
Speaker 4: holdings some treasuries, but in you know, specifically US securities themselves,

177
00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:32,320
Speaker 4: you know, I mean part of the problem is that

178
00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:34,840
Speaker 4: it really hits quite hard to put large amounts of money.

179
00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:36,720
Speaker 4: You end up putting it in stuff like the Vision

180
00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:40,560
Speaker 4: fund or credit sweee or you know, or stuff like that.

181
00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:44,600
Speaker 2: Is oh, you already said vision fund. Yeah.

182
00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's a whole rabbit hole here and

183
00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:52,480
Speaker 4: it's always tricky, but you know, it's very difficult. There

184
00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:54,920
Speaker 4: aren't a lot of places to put large chunks of

185
00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:58,960
Speaker 4: money like this, and especially where you could expect you

186
00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:01,160
Speaker 4: won't be the dominant in yes, which yeah, yes, it

187
00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,679
Speaker 4: brings some perks, but it also brings some you know,

188
00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 4: some very significant problems with it as well.

189
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:08,960
Speaker 3: You could build like what is it, like, a two

190
00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:12,120
Speaker 3: hundred mile long city in the middle of the desert

191
00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 3: and have it be a blockchain capital at the universe. Anyway,

192
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,720
Speaker 3: I'm digressing a little bit. I want to actually go

193
00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:21,720
Speaker 3: back to the comment you made about a sort of politics,

194
00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,320
Speaker 3: because we could talk economics, we could talk about the

195
00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,559
Speaker 3: rise of trade with China, but obviously a lot of

196
00:10:27,600 --> 00:10:31,559
Speaker 3: some of these impulses are going to come from domestic

197
00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:34,760
Speaker 3: political choices. What is going on, like, what are you

198
00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:38,240
Speaker 3: seeing specifically, and what is the sort of common thread

199
00:10:38,320 --> 00:10:41,920
Speaker 3: across multiple countries that you say is driving this sort

200
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,160
Speaker 3: of like shift in political or global political consideration.

201
00:10:45,880 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 4: I think the sanctions applied to Russia, you know, after

202
00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,319
Speaker 4: the invasion of Ukraine stand out because I mean it's

203
00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,720
Speaker 4: usually spoken about in the context of a possible Chinese

204
00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,120
Speaker 4: attack on Taiwan, but you go around pretty much every

205
00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:04,400
Speaker 4: country has reasonably severe disagreements with the US, with the

206
00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:08,600
Speaker 4: West in various ways. There is you know, a huge

207
00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,800
Speaker 4: amount of resentment, which really is not something I should

208
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,000
Speaker 4: be trying, you know, trying to diagnose the politics. But

209
00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:18,520
Speaker 4: I think, you know, it just ensure practical terms that

210
00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,560
Speaker 4: at least three hundred billion and we think probably a

211
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:25,240
Speaker 4: decent chunk more of Russian money was put beyond the

212
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:28,439
Speaker 4: use of the Russians simply because it was placed within the.

213
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:29,760
Speaker 2: US financial system.

214
00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:32,200
Speaker 4: I think that's given a lot of urgency, you know,

215
00:11:32,280 --> 00:11:35,560
Speaker 4: even to countries you know, who might not expect to

216
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,240
Speaker 4: have a major dispute with the US the way that

217
00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,960
Speaker 4: the Russians have it really does become then a question

218
00:11:42,040 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 4: of well, you know, how do we protect this savings pot.

219
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,960
Speaker 1: You know, there is that argument, and you touched on

220
00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,320
Speaker 1: it already a little bit, but there is an argument

221
00:12:06,360 --> 00:12:10,760
Speaker 1: to be made that maybe for reasons of financial stability,

222
00:12:10,800 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 1: this would make sense. So you know, if you're an

223
00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,320
Speaker 1: emerging market economy, maybe you don't want your country to

224
00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,720
Speaker 1: be tied too closely to what the US is doing,

225
00:12:20,760 --> 00:12:23,280
Speaker 1: because maybe the US is raising rates at a time

226
00:12:23,440 --> 00:12:27,200
Speaker 1: when you really need financial conditions to loosen. And we've

227
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,880
Speaker 1: spoken with Jun Sung Shin at the Bank for International

228
00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,120
Speaker 1: Settlements a lot about this. He's done a lot of

229
00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:37,160
Speaker 1: research on the topic. How valid are those concerns and

230
00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:41,599
Speaker 1: how do you disaggregate the sort of financial conditions diversification

231
00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:48,720
Speaker 1: argument versus the political sanctions concerns about future financial control

232
00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:49,360
Speaker 1: type thing.

233
00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:52,280
Speaker 2: I mean it comes back to the old quote.

234
00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:54,319
Speaker 4: I mean, I think this is from the seventies that

235
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:56,640
Speaker 4: you know, a US policy make has said, you know,

236
00:12:56,679 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 4: it's our currency and your problem. That you know, we've

237
00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,640
Speaker 4: seen that US financial conditions just affect anywhere else if

238
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,320
Speaker 4: you look at I mean you have to disaggregate that

239
00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:08,400
Speaker 4: we've had a big burst of inflation everywhere, and interest

240
00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:10,360
Speaker 4: rates would have gone up everywhere. This has not been

241
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,480
Speaker 4: the Fed chasing everybody else's interest rates around the last

242
00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,880
Speaker 4: year or so. But high US rates have led to

243
00:13:16,920 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 4: a stronger dollar, and a stronger dollar does mean significantly

244
00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:23,440
Speaker 4: tight of financial conditions for anyone who borrows in dollars,

245
00:13:23,640 --> 00:13:26,199
Speaker 4: you know, the cost of repaying that debt. And this

246
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:28,000
Speaker 4: is I think a lot of what people are talking

247
00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 4: about when they say that, you know that they want

248
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:32,160
Speaker 4: independence from the dollar.

249
00:13:32,200 --> 00:13:34,120
Speaker 2: I mean whether you necessarily want.

250
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:35,679
Speaker 4: The renmn b instead, and if you think the renmen

251
00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,600
Speaker 4: mimi is going to be much easier, that's another question.

252
00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:42,080
Speaker 4: But yeah, I mean, as long as the borrowing currency

253
00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 4: of choice. And you know, I kind of agree with

254
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,360
Speaker 4: Joe that, you know, just because somebody invoices a barrel

255
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,840
Speaker 4: of you know, awesome gas that they bought from Abu

256
00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 4: Dhabi for dollars and then they sell it to somebody

257
00:13:52,679 --> 00:13:55,880
Speaker 4: else for renmen b, I'm not sure that's quite the

258
00:13:55,920 --> 00:13:58,560
Speaker 4: game changer it's being pitched to be. I mean, you

259
00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 4: can send me a gas bill in bitcoin and I

260
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:05,320
Speaker 4: will turn my pounds into bitcoin, and I will pay

261
00:14:05,320 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 4: the gas bill and whoever is you know, and whoever

262
00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,840
Speaker 4: sells me that gas will sell the bitcoin for sterling.

263
00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:11,679
Speaker 4: And I'm not really sure that's quite the game changer

264
00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,880
Speaker 4: it's being pitched at. What does matter is, you know,

265
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,800
Speaker 4: especially these surplus countries, One, are they going to continue

266
00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:22,080
Speaker 4: to run these surpluses? And to what extent can they

267
00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:26,520
Speaker 4: immunize themselves from US political influence, to the extent that

268
00:14:26,560 --> 00:14:28,640
Speaker 4: they're still holding a lot of their assets in dollars.

269
00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:31,560
Speaker 4: My view is, and the impact on markets will be

270
00:14:31,680 --> 00:14:35,400
Speaker 4: is it's very, very difficult because you know, the surpluses

271
00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,600
Speaker 4: coming out of China are a fraction of what they

272
00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:39,640
Speaker 4: were in I mean, they're down to about two and

273
00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,120
Speaker 4: a half percent of GDP now when they were up

274
00:14:42,160 --> 00:14:45,920
Speaker 4: at ten around the time of the financial crisis. But

275
00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 4: if you know, if the renminb is going to become

276
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 4: a reserve currency, then effectively it becomes impossible for China

277
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,840
Speaker 4: to run surpluces. You know, so at a minimum, you're

278
00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:00,960
Speaker 4: closing off possible policy options in the future. And really,

279
00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:02,720
Speaker 4: i mean, does the rest of the world really, you know,

280
00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:06,240
Speaker 4: want to start denominating its debt in that of a

281
00:15:06,280 --> 00:15:09,800
Speaker 4: currency where they might suddenly start, you know, moving to

282
00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:13,120
Speaker 4: moving to huge surpluses versus the rest of the world,

283
00:15:13,560 --> 00:15:16,400
Speaker 4: and then that's going to impact the monetary policy everywhere

284
00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 4: everywhere else on Earth. Yeah, I mean, it's it's not

285
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 4: it's not simple as never a satisfactory answer, but I think,

286
00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,440
Speaker 4: you know, the problems are. It's very easy to say

287
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:29,359
Speaker 4: that these countries want to be independent of US agnominia

288
00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 4: of the US dollar, but in almost every case that's

289
00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 4: going to involve policy choices which are going to have

290
00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 4: difficult policy ramifications. I mean, we got here for a reason, you.

291
00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,560
Speaker 3: Know, speaking of policy choices. However, and you talk about

292
00:15:43,560 --> 00:15:47,600
Speaker 3: the sort of assertiveness of some various nations, there's also

293
00:15:48,160 --> 00:15:51,840
Speaker 3: policy choices happening in the US. It appears, I mean

294
00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:55,680
Speaker 3: you arguably the US itself is becoming more inward looking,

295
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:58,720
Speaker 3: and arguably it started under Trunk. But there seems to

296
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:02,720
Speaker 3: be a lot of content with Biden in terms of

297
00:16:02,760 --> 00:16:07,080
Speaker 3: some of these domestic investments, whether it's semiconductors, whether it's energy.

298
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 3: Some of these investments particularly antagonizing allies or friends in

299
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 3: Europe who feel we're sort of like pulling away the

300
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,360
Speaker 3: supply chain from them. Like, how much of this is also,

301
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,320
Speaker 3: like now just a story about US trading partners turning

302
00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:25,640
Speaker 3: away from the US or turning away from sort of

303
00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,720
Speaker 3: dollar assets, but a US decision to sort of focus

304
00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 3: more inward and you know, rely less on the rest

305
00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 3: of the world.

306
00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,440
Speaker 2: I yeah, I don't really see that.

307
00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,640
Speaker 4: I mean, whatever your objections to the US as a hegemon,

308
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:44,000
Speaker 4: you know, try somebody else. I mean, the specific example

309
00:16:44,040 --> 00:16:45,920
Speaker 4: that sticks with me is the is the dollar swap

310
00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 4: lines which were extended to you know, the big Western

311
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,600
Speaker 4: ally central you know, and specifically the Western allies that

312
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 4: you know, they weren't extended to certain other countries which

313
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:58,120
Speaker 4: could have benefited from them. While the US does make

314
00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,360
Speaker 4: it clear that in monetary policy is not run for

315
00:17:01,400 --> 00:17:04,320
Speaker 4: the benefit of anybody but Americans. You know that we

316
00:17:04,359 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 4: had a big push in the ninety seven Asian crisis,

317
00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:09,439
Speaker 4: and then ninety eight everybody was saying, well, you know,

318
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 4: you can't keep hiking, because that's going to screw things

319
00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:14,720
Speaker 4: up for everybody else, to which the u s response

320
00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 4: was rightly, well, too bad. You know, US monetary policy,

321
00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,960
Speaker 4: you know, the FED has no mandate to look after

322
00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:23,040
Speaker 4: anybody who isn't an American but you know, these the

323
00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:27,000
Speaker 4: swap lines were absolutely critical in protecting the rest of

324
00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:29,800
Speaker 4: the world, especially during two thousand and eight, you know,

325
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:33,000
Speaker 4: but also during COVID we saw the lines rolled out

326
00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 4: in the past that you know, however much you know

327
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:40,879
Speaker 4: the rest of US might you know, complain or be

328
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,200
Speaker 4: unkind about, you know, about Donald Trump or anybody else.

329
00:17:44,720 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 4: The US has always, you know, go back to the

330
00:17:48,480 --> 00:17:51,679
Speaker 4: Marshall Plan or whatever, you know, the US has always

331
00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 4: at a minimum had a defensible case that of enlightened

332
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:58,600
Speaker 4: self interest. And you know, and I think there are

333
00:17:58,720 --> 00:18:02,560
Speaker 4: question marks about whether you know the alternatives, whether it's gold,

334
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:03,720
Speaker 4: whether it's the RENMN be.

335
00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,160
Speaker 2: Mean, let's be honest, those are the only two.

336
00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:08,560
Speaker 4: You know, The rubles no use to anyone, you know,

337
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:11,840
Speaker 4: or bitcoin or whatever mad scheme you have. That you

338
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,879
Speaker 4: know that there are policymakers in the US who are

339
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,760
Speaker 4: making choices which I think benefit the rest of the world,

340
00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:22,760
Speaker 4: and it's not clear that the alternatives would be adequate

341
00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:23,359
Speaker 4: for the rest of us.

342
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 1: So just to kind of crystallize this idea in our minds,

343
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 1: like walk us through what would need to happen in

344
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:37,240
Speaker 1: order to make some other types of reserve assets more

345
00:18:37,320 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 1: viable options than US treasuries, Like what would make a

346
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:47,440
Speaker 1: South African bond a proper replacement for a US tenure

347
00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,760
Speaker 1: or what would make I don't know, a Brazilian bond

348
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:51,959
Speaker 1: of replacement.

349
00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,680
Speaker 4: Well, I mean those two countries, I think, are you're

350
00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,560
Speaker 4: making absolute maximum difficulty because.

351
00:18:58,600 --> 00:18:59,840
Speaker 1: I ask the hard question.

352
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 2: Both of those economies rise and fall with commodity prices.

353
00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,120
Speaker 4: You know, Brazil its iron ore and soybeans, South Africa

354
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 4: sort of platinum, palladium in particular, also coal that you know,

355
00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:13,800
Speaker 4: as commodity prices rise and fall, that dictates everything for

356
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:17,439
Speaker 4: those economies. It even dictates the credit cycle because Brazil

357
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 4: and South Africa are in a much better position to

358
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 4: cut interrast rates when the external balances are healthy and

359
00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,080
Speaker 4: commodity prices are overwhelmingly driven by China, I mean, especially

360
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,400
Speaker 4: in Brazil. I think Brazil you know, comes second after

361
00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 4: Australia in terms of economies sort of most driven by

362
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,840
Speaker 4: the Chinese property cycle.

363
00:19:35,440 --> 00:19:37,240
Speaker 2: So you know, I don't see scope there.

364
00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 4: I mean what you're looking at are well, one is

365
00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 4: alternatives to US treasuries sort of within US financial markets.

366
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,479
Speaker 4: But you know, a US investment grade corporate bond doesn't

367
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 4: really trade that much. I mean, an investment grade emerging

368
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 4: market debt bond in dollars, you know, does tend to

369
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,600
Speaker 4: trade very much off the treasury market, and the extent

370
00:19:56,640 --> 00:20:00,720
Speaker 4: it doesn't very much of US dollar denominated credit.

371
00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:01,960
Speaker 2: It's very, very difficult.

372
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 4: I mean, the question is also is China, And again

373
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,280
Speaker 4: it's China, It's not anyone else. Maybe the Saudist to

374
00:20:09,280 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 4: a certain extent, doing this in a context where they're

375
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,520
Speaker 4: continuing to use the external surplus, they're continuing to have

376
00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:20,200
Speaker 4: massive excess savings for domestic policy means, because deploying ten

377
00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 4: percent of GDP is a colossally more difficult task than

378
00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,960
Speaker 4: deploying you know, two percent of GDP.

379
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 2: Which is where they are at the moment.

380
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 4: You can probably slip two percent of GDP into emerging

381
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:35,320
Speaker 4: markets and venture capital and Europe and whatever else. You

382
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 4: can't put ten percent of GDP. I mean, the problem

383
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 4: with emerging markets is that they're allocated as a special

384
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 4: asset class to people like me because they are different.

385
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 4: You know, the legal rules are very difficult. You know,

386
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 4: the idea that a minority shareholder should get some benefit

387
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:56,680
Speaker 4: from the success of a company in Russia is really

388
00:20:56,680 --> 00:21:00,000
Speaker 4: regarded as ludicrous by most, you know, by most people

389
00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:03,360
Speaker 4: of influence within Russia. It's you know, if you can

390
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:05,120
Speaker 4: go through the history, if you you know, you look

391
00:21:05,160 --> 00:21:10,119
Speaker 4: at ucas, you look at the contact, you know, sort of.

392
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 4: I mean, Russia is a particularly bad example, but it's

393
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,240
Speaker 4: not out there. You can look at what's going on

394
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:17,360
Speaker 4: with the Dani in India. You know, the the returns

395
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 4: on a long horizon from emerging market investments have been

396
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 4: absolutely dismal for a long time. And I think that

397
00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 4: institutional backdrop that you know, that does narrow the field

398
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 4: for profitable investments. So is there a supply of you know,

399
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 4: not necessarily liquid, because there's nothing remotely as liquid as treasuries,

400
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 4: but you know, investible with a reasonable chance of positive

401
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 4: economic returns in the medium term that isn't plugged into

402
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 4: the US or its or its allies.

403
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 2: I think, you know that there's quite a big question

404
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 2: mark over that.

405
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,040
Speaker 4: I mean, that's not to say that you can't do

406
00:21:50,119 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 4: what Turkey is doing, you know, and sell influence, you know,

407
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 4: and I think that there's a lot of money going

408
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 4: into places like Turkey sort of to buy influence rather

409
00:21:58,680 --> 00:22:01,040
Speaker 4: than you know, for pure economic reasons.

410
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 3: But what do you mean I want to ask you

411
00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 3: a question about China, but can you explain what you

412
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 3: mean by by influence what's going on in Turkey?

413
00:22:07,640 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean Turkey is an interesting one because you're

414
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 4: never sure if this is purely driven by what the

415
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 4: current Turkish administration wants to do, purely, you know, for

416
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 4: its own reasons, or.

417
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,240
Speaker 2: Whether they're doing it. The Turks are running a very

418
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:21,360
Speaker 2: big external deficit.

419
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 4: They've they've pegged the lira effectively to the US dollar

420
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 4: for about nine months now, even as they're running sort

421
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 4: of double digit credit growth, growing external surplus, and yet

422
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 4: at the same time their growth, foreign exchange reserves are

423
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:34,879
Speaker 4: growing with it.

424
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 2: You know, it's pretty clear.

425
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 4: That there's Saudi and ka Tari money, probably some Abudhabi

426
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:42,119
Speaker 4: money in as well. At the same time, Turkey is

427
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 4: a major conduit for sanctions busting gas flows out of Russia.

428
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 4: They've been instrumental in holding out the expansion of NATO,

429
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,639
Speaker 4: you know, they you know, at the same time, you know,

430
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,399
Speaker 4: the NATO air base in in Chillik is still open.

431
00:22:56,440 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 2: It's there's a question.

432
00:22:58,400 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 4: Of whether this is just Turkish pre electoral politics or

433
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 4: whether that there are you know, they they're relying on

434
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:10,639
Speaker 4: or they've been paid off. Sounds awfully crude, but you

435
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 4: know that there are financial flows which are playing part

436
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 4: of that calculation. You know, we've seen it with Hungary,

437
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 4: the promise of cheap gas that doesn't seem seem to

438
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 4: have been fulfilled. But you know, as you go around

439
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 4: the even stuff like you know, Honduras recently took itself

440
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 4: off the very short list of countries which recognized Taiwan

441
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:32,640
Speaker 4: as an independent country.

442
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 2: You know, that's not a huge amount of money in.

443
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 4: Chinese terms, but certainly there were financial flows involved there.

444
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,400
Speaker 3: Since you mentioned China there, and I wanted to ask

445
00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:44,879
Speaker 3: a broader follow up on it, which is that Okay,

446
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: Like Tracy asked the really hard question, the almost a

447
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 3: possible question of what does the world look like or

448
00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 3: a Brazilian or a ten year or a South African

449
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 3: ten years a replacement for a treasury, But like, let's

450
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 3: ask the less hard question of, like, okay, what would

451
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 3: it for the R and B or Chinese debt to

452
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:07,160
Speaker 3: start really becoming a meaningful global reserve asset? What would

453
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: be the policy choice that China would have to make

454
00:24:10,920 --> 00:24:14,119
Speaker 3: domestically or the trade off that China would have to

455
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 3: make behind just trading globally and expanding its trade position.

456
00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 3: In order for its financial assets to play their role globally,

457
00:24:22,840 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: the Chinese would.

458
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 4: Have to stop creating such vast surpluses, which means that

459
00:24:27,560 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 4: all the various incentives in place to create massive excess

460
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 4: saving in China, or some of them, are going to

461
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 4: have to be relaxed. You know, if you're a Chinese person,

462
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 4: there's a very weak social safety net. Until recently, you're

463
00:24:39,480 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 4: only allowed one child. So to protect yourself with the future,

464
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 4: you had to make sort of much higher levels of

465
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 4: financial saving than pretty much anyone else in the world, you.

466
00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 2: Know, financial oppression. You can't invest abroad.

467
00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,480
Speaker 4: That whole apparatus for creating you know, savings forty to

468
00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 4: fifty percent of GDP has to be at.

469
00:24:57,000 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 2: The very least wound back.

470
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 4: You probably need to relax capital controls materially. You need

471
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:09,560
Speaker 4: to reframe economic policy very seriously. I mean, the thing

472
00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:12,400
Speaker 4: that makes China so important to the global financial system

473
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 4: means that it's actually not a great destination for capital

474
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 4: because you know, to the extent that the Chinese want

475
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,680
Speaker 4: to get rid of these excess savings, they certainly don't

476
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 4: want excess Saudi or Indian or anybody else's savings because

477
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 4: that just makes the task that much more difficult. But

478
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 4: I think, you know, it has to address this issue

479
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,040
Speaker 4: of huge excess savings.

480
00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:52,240
Speaker 1: So the idea of certain emerging market economies kind of

481
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:56,359
Speaker 1: banding together to do this, And I mentioned this in

482
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: the intro, But we have seen the bricks, for instance,

483
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 1: make some noises about. I think Russia slash Vladimir Putin

484
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 1: talked explicitly about this common currency bricks idea. But what

485
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,640
Speaker 1: is the driving force there? Like who stands to benefit

486
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: the most? Is it Russia or China? And I guess

487
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: what I'm kind of getting at is what is the

488
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:23,280
Speaker 1: common thread that unites these countries if there are any.

489
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,120
Speaker 4: I mean, I think it's a negative rather than a positive.

490
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,360
Speaker 4: It's independence from you know, one, the effect of US

491
00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 4: policy actions on asset prices, that if you have asset

492
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:36,879
Speaker 4: prices that aren't overwhelmingly denominated in US dollars, then you

493
00:26:36,920 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: have a little bit more detachment from the US.

494
00:26:39,960 --> 00:26:42,200
Speaker 2: Two is independence from US.

495
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:46,440
Speaker 4: Financial regulation and US sanctions, And I think those two

496
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:49,679
Speaker 4: are really the big driver. Ideally, there's a de linking

497
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,439
Speaker 4: from the impact of the US dollar that you but

498
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,199
Speaker 4: I mean, whatever you switch to, you're going to have

499
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 4: the same issues with So I'm not sure that's as

500
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 4: central as as it's been been pitched at. But mostly

501
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: it's you know, it's de linking from the dollar. It's

502
00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,280
Speaker 4: a negative. Rather than that there's you know that there's

503
00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 4: some holy grail out there that might be attainable. I mean,

504
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 4: I you know, I made this comparison before, but you know,

505
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 4: the bricks really isn't you know that it's not the

506
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 4: bricks that matter. It's China that matters. China is seventy

507
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 4: two percent of bricks GDP, it's eighty percent of bricks growth. Yeah,

508
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 4: it's you know, it's the bulk of the external surplus.

509
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 4: It's you know, it's it's everything else. I mean, I

510
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 4: made the Dictator of Albanian and Vohoha used to sort

511
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,240
Speaker 4: of say, together the Chinese and the Albanians are a

512
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 4: quarter of the world's population, you know, And I think,

513
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 4: you know, it's a it's an overstatement. You know, I'm

514
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: in India, clearly you know matters a bit. But you know,

515
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,280
Speaker 4: I think we spend a lot of time talking about

516
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 4: the bricks when we really should be talking about China.

517
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 3: Well, we did an episode recently with Henry Williams and

518
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,239
Speaker 3: David Ogg's sort of taking a long term view one

519
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 3: global development, and it was sort of the same theme

520
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 3: that there are all these numbers that look really good

521
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 3: in terms of the globe is getting richer and people

522
00:28:08,640 --> 00:28:13,119
Speaker 3: are rising, et cetera. And really that number is just

523
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:18,000
Speaker 3: it's a large part basically the incredible boom in Chinese

524
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,200
Speaker 3: wealth over the last decades. When you sort of look

525
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:24,479
Speaker 3: ex China, the numbers are significantly less rosy.

526
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: So that makes sense.

527
00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 3: You know, let's just say there, let's accept the sort

528
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 3: of premise that there is this sort of new impulse

529
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:35,760
Speaker 3: among multiple countries to tilt somewhat the reserve mix, to

530
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 3: think about maybe being less inclined to automatically put money

531
00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: in treasuries. Is there a cost to the US from that,

532
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 3: because I mean, you know, if we go back to

533
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 3: the sort of like Michael Pettis Matthew Klein framework that

534
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,840
Speaker 3: you mentioned, the dominant role of the dollar, maybe it

535
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: was making it artificially or sort of like I don't

536
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,440
Speaker 3: know if artificial is the right word, but a premium

537
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: that was parstly in some way to US workers and

538
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: so forth, like in your view, like what is the

539
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: cost of some of these shifts to sort of US interests?

540
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 2: That's it. That's it.

541
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 4: I mean, it's an incredibly complicated question. You know, does

542
00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 4: the US you know, the exorbitant privilege? I mean it

543
00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 4: the main thing the US has which nobody else has

544
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,440
Speaker 4: is that it really doesn't have to care about anybody else.

545
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 4: You know that You've that not only have you got

546
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:31,480
Speaker 4: relatively closed economy, but nobody else is really you know,

547
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 4: the decisions of other central banks aren't affecting US monetary conditions.

548
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 4: You don't have to adjust for that. And I think

549
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 4: that's the key case. I think the very low cost

550
00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 4: of borrowing in the US. I mean, it's most clearly

551
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 4: felt in the treasury market. I mean of a total trade.

552
00:29:48,920 --> 00:29:53,160
Speaker 4: I mean, the total treasury stock is about thirty billion,

553
00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,720
Speaker 4: and about a quarter of that is owned by foreigners,

554
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 4: you know, and that include you know, and the biggest

555
00:29:58,320 --> 00:30:00,760
Speaker 4: holder is Japan. So it's not all breaks and it's

556
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 4: not all countries which are looking at the paradigm. But

557
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 4: I think the idea that excess savings elsewhere feed through

558
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 4: to the US exceptionally because of dollar dominance, so you've

559
00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 4: had a lower cost of capital, but you know, have

560
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 4: financial conditions. Has a US benefited unconditionally from looser financial

561
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 4: conditions over the last twenty years. I think there's a

562
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 4: very strong case that it hasn't. The impact of the

563
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 4: dollar has been that financial conditions have been we have

564
00:30:28,600 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 4: been looser, that treasury yields have been lower as a

565
00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 4: result of it. But I mean it's a removal of control,

566
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:41,239
Speaker 4: I think, and it's having to factor in thing, you know,

567
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 4: decisions made by people who don't have your best interests

568
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 4: at heart, that that suddenly becomes a consideration for US policymakers.

569
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: Again, I want to go back to this idea of

570
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:54,480
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of merging market narrative being basically

571
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: all about China. And this is again Joe already mentioned

572
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:02,440
Speaker 1: the episode that we recently did on the failure of globalization.

573
00:31:03,080 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: But is the takeaway from all of this that, you know,

574
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 1: we have been having conversations about the global economy pivoting

575
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 1: towards ems, pivoting towards places like China, India, Brazil for

576
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 1: literally decades now, and maybe in the case of China,

577
00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 1: there is some evidence that it's happening in China is

578
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: now the world's second biggest economy, but for the most part,

579
00:31:27,400 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 1: a lot of the EM strength that was anticipated hasn't

580
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 1: actually materialized. Is that the big takeaway here that the

581
00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:37,200
Speaker 1: EM narrative just is failing.

582
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, as an EM professional, am.

583
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 1: I basically asking are you in the wrong job?

584
00:31:44,800 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: You're asking, you know, have I wasted my career? I

585
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 2: think there's a reasonable case that I have.

586
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 4: It's just I mean you divide it in sort of

587
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 4: two that sort of pre two thousand and eight, before

588
00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 4: the global financial crisis, you had emerging markets rely on

589
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,400
Speaker 4: growing about two three percent faster than developed markets, and

590
00:32:04,440 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 4: you could use that to build the narrative of the bricks.

591
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 4: You know that there's catch up that a wildly disproportionate

592
00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 4: part of marginal growth is going to accrue to emerging.

593
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 2: Markets and people.

594
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: And as you say, people got very confused and started

595
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 4: attributing to emerging markets when they actually meant China. But

596
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 4: pre two thousand and eight, you could make it. You

597
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 4: could really make a case that something important was happening

598
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: in emerging markets that weren't China or India. I think

599
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 4: since the global financial crisis, or more precisely since twenty eleven,

600
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 4: when we got past the immediate impacts of the huge

601
00:32:37,840 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 4: Chinese stimulus, which whacked up commodity prices and got Brazil

602
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,320
Speaker 4: and Prue and all the metals exporters humming again. Since then,

603
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 4: it's been very, very hard to make a convincing case

604
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 4: that there's anything that's really going to matter to the

605
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:55,280
Speaker 4: rest of the world that isn't really pretty much all

606
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 4: about China and maybe India, which is something for me

607
00:32:59,360 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 4: to reflect on.

608
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good place to leave it

609
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 1: with Paul in Existential Crisis. Paul McNamara, thank you so

610
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 1: much for coming on all lots. Appreciate your insights and

611
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 1: your reflection on your own career.

612
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:15,920
Speaker 2: Thanks very much. Chiz.

613
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:17,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, that was great, Paul, thank you so much.

614
00:33:17,840 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: Great talking to.

615
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 4: Joe.

616
00:33:32,000 --> 00:33:34,680
Speaker 1: I found that really interesting. I mean, I do think

617
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 1: we have to get Zultan back on the podcast at

618
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: some point, but this was like a very good overview

619
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: of some of the issues. Because people throw around the

620
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 1: dedollarization idea all the time without actually thinking through a

621
00:33:49,920 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: lot of the technicalities, and I think Paul's point about

622
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 1: what are the viable alternatives or substitutes is a really

623
00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 1: salient one, and we have It is true that we

624
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,000
Speaker 1: have seen some central banks start to move away from

625
00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: US treasuries. I know there's been a big boom in

626
00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: gold buying by official accounts over the past here, but realistically,

627
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: you need a big market to actually put that money into,

628
00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: and there aren't that many viable options.

629
00:34:21,000 --> 00:34:21,520
Speaker 2: No, totally.

630
00:34:21,560 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 3: I mean I think you nailed it.

631
00:34:22,480 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 2: Well.

632
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 3: What's striking to me, just sort of broadly, is this

633
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 3: is a perennial or every decade conversation, the end of

634
00:34:31,239 --> 00:34:35,839
Speaker 3: the dollar, dedollarization, et cetera. It's usually and probably even

635
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,879
Speaker 3: still is today somewhat overhyped and overcooked. But to hear

636
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 3: someone like Paul say like, look, there is something real

637
00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:46,839
Speaker 3: here going on. They can't be entirely dismissed that there

638
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,800
Speaker 3: is a political shift in several countries around the world,

639
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 3: whether they look at the loss of foreign reserves that

640
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:56,799
Speaker 3: Russia experienced or other things that even preceded the war,

641
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 3: perhaps related to inflation as well. I think we have

642
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 3: to stand up and sort of take note. Absolutely, still

643
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:04,439
Speaker 3: a long way.

644
00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, it's never It's never good when you know,

645
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: if you think about the US's biggest export, it's financial assets, right,

646
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: it's US treasuries, And it's never good when your customers

647
00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:22,520
Speaker 1: are actively and vocally trying to get away from you.

648
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: I do think it's worth discussing and even thinking back

649
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 1: to a year ago again when Sultan's first research note

650
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 1: came out and there was this idea of the multipolar

651
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:34,879
Speaker 1: world deed auorization. There was a lot of pushback on that,

652
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 1: but over the past year or so we've seen that

653
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: theme sort of calcify.

654
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 3: But the other thing, too, I completely agree.

655
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:43,839
Speaker 2: Like the other thing too is I.

656
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 3: Think to some extent, like the US, starting under Trump,

657
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:51,040
Speaker 3: is making this sort of I don't know how purposeful

658
00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:54,439
Speaker 3: it is, but kind of purposeful sort of assessment of, well,

659
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: maybe we don't want our biggest export to be financial assets.

660
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: And so when you see like some of the shift

661
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: towards domestic manufacturing, domestic chip capability, building, more LNG export terminals,

662
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 3: et cetera. But no, I think, but I just think

663
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 3: like both parts both are moving parts. Like I don't

664
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 3: think we could totally dismiss that there's something going on

665
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: domestically the US where it's like, no, totally also making

666
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 3: this decision where we don't really love the status quo either.

667
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 1: But the counter argument to that would be, do you

668
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: want an economy in which the main buyers of US

669
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 1: treasuries are all domestic financial institutions like banks?

670
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 2: Sure? And then yeah, sure, and then we.

671
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:39,919
Speaker 1: Have problems like what we saw over the past month.

672
00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: I think you and I could talk about this, probably

673
00:36:42,600 --> 00:36:44,880
Speaker 1: for another hour and go round it around.

674
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,280
Speaker 2: We'll get some guests on instead.

675
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, follow up, Let's do that. Okay, shall we leave

676
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: it there?

677
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

678
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 1: This has been another episode of the Odd Thoughts podcast.

679
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me on Twitter at

680
00:36:57,520 --> 00:36:58,760
Speaker 1: Tracy Alloway.

681
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 3: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can and follow me on

682
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 3: Twitter at the Stalwart. Follow our guest Paul McNamara. He's

683
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 3: at m Underscore Paul McNamara. Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez

684
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 3: at Carmen Arman and Dash Bennett at dashbot. And for

685
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,320
Speaker 3: all the Bloomberg podcasts, check us out under the handle

686
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,239
Speaker 3: at podcasts, and for more odd Lots content, go to

687
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,360
Speaker 3: Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we post transcripts.

688
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:24,120
Speaker 2: We have a blog.

689
00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 3: We have a weekly newsletter that comes out Friday, and

690
00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:29,239
Speaker 3: for even more, check out our discord where we have

691
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 3: listeners hanging out and chatting about the top of twenty

692
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:35,399
Speaker 3: four to seven discord dot gg slash odd lots. You'll

693
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,560
Speaker 3: find it there. It's really fun, I hang out and

694
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,320
Speaker 3: there a lot. Check it out and thanks for listening.