Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey p Joe piz
Speaker 1: Appia with me is my boy the Welsh, and today
Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about ten undervalued pitchers. I went back
Speaker 1: to last year's list to see how we did. I
Speaker 1: would say pretty good. Here are the names on last
Speaker 1: year's list that were undervalued that we thought you should
Speaker 1: be drafting. Blake Snell, he was pretty good. Welsh, I
Speaker 1: would say he was all right. Joe Ryan Uri Perez
Speaker 1: was a tease. We didn't quite get all that help.
Speaker 1: I know we were there, we were there, it just
Speaker 1: didn't work out. Kyle Bradish didn't work out for him,
Speaker 1: but it did work out for Cole Reagan's, Carlos Rodon Bailey, Ober,
Speaker 1: some of those names. So we're gonna try to hit
Speaker 1: on some names for twenty twenty five. Don't forget to
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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Broos dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard. All right, Welsh,
Speaker 1: first name on the list. We're gonna kick it off.
Speaker 1: These guys all currently, I want to emphasize currently, as
Speaker 1: of early February recording this, they're going outside the top
Speaker 1: one hundred. I want to start with a guy that
Speaker 1: I've taken in some mock drafts, and you've already taken
Speaker 1: in a mock draft just yesterday. Grayson Rodriguez, all the
Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles. I feel like, again, this is a player
Speaker 1: we are just getting the teas as of right, we've
Speaker 1: seen what the upside look like and it's electric. Now
Speaker 1: they let Corbyn Burns walk, and if you're gonna let
Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns walk, you better be rest assured that they
Speaker 1: think that Grayson Rodriguez is ready to take that next
Speaker 1: step to truly be the ACE. So I know, the
Speaker 1: end of the year didn't work out the way the
Speaker 1: Orioles quite wanted. They fell short there for a World
Speaker 1: Series run, but still an incredibly young team and Grayson
Speaker 1: Rodriguez still has the upside to be a fantasy ace,
Speaker 1: and you're getting him outside of the top one hundred, Welsh,
Speaker 1: I don't see how that's not undervalued at this point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think he floats in this undervalued and
Speaker 2: I'm not sure he's like the most screaming of all time.
Speaker 2: But because one of the things that you're doing is
Speaker 2: you are being like, all right, does he take that
Speaker 2: next big step? And I'm not sure that there's like
Speaker 2: a gajillion things that stand out to be like, oh
Speaker 2: my gosh, guys, he's going to do bop bop. But
Speaker 2: I will say that, like outside the top one hundred,
Speaker 2: he's a guy that could easily flow seventy five picks
Speaker 2: or twenty five picks higher into around the seventy five
Speaker 2: ish range. Like if someone told me right now he
Speaker 2: could be a top twenty sp this season, I really
Speaker 2: wouldn't be too shocked.
Speaker 3: There's great team support that's there.
Speaker 2: Fastball is complimented with two really great pitches, the change
Speaker 2: up and slider both had a twenty seven or higher
Speaker 2: percent K percentage. So those are two big strikeout pitches
Speaker 2: with a fastball that did come down year over year
Speaker 2: average ninety seven in twenty twenty three. It was ninety
Speaker 2: six this past year, but it's still a great pitch.
Speaker 2: I had a twenty seven percent with rate, so you've
Speaker 2: got this great repertoire with a profile. As far as
Speaker 2: again hitters that he was able to lower the zone
Speaker 2: contact rate that he was giving up. He lowered the
Speaker 2: hard hit while increasing his strikeout rate this past year.
Speaker 2: A little caveat would be that they are making the
Speaker 2: right field wall a little bit more hitter friendly where
Speaker 2: the I'm sorry, yeah, left field wall where the right
Speaker 2: field wall is a little bit more pitcher friendly. So
Speaker 2: they're taking out some of that pitcher friendly environment.
Speaker 3: But home runs are not, like.
Speaker 2: Really a huge crazy issue. He was a little bit
Speaker 2: better in the second half. He had a three eight
Speaker 2: six ERA with an expected three seven to two. If
Speaker 2: we get down to around three five watch out projections.
Speaker 2: Looking at the bat system, he's the thirty sixth war
Speaker 2: pitcher projected for a ten and eight record, one hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty innings, around a nine and a half k
Speaker 2: per nine in a two point seven walk per nine.
Speaker 2: I think there is some room for growth there. I
Speaker 2: think top thirty makes a decent amount of sense, and
Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred. If you're looking for actual,
Speaker 2: true young pitchers today take that next big step. He
Speaker 2: is one of those guys, So like, I buy the
Speaker 2: under value.
Speaker 3: I think he's the biggest screen.
Speaker 2: Of this list, but he's also the highest, so it's like,
Speaker 2: probably not gonna feel that way as well. Grayson definitely
Speaker 2: has an undervalued tag attached to his name when guys
Speaker 2: like Bailey Obert and stuff are going higher.
Speaker 1: Look, I do all the picture write ups for the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Black Book, now available on Amazon, and Grayson
Speaker 1: Orriguez for me, is one of my favorite guys because
Speaker 1: I'm somebody that likes to go offense early, and you've
Speaker 1: seen that in the mock drafts that I do here
Speaker 1: on the program, right, And when I'm looking for my
Speaker 1: tandem starting pitchers, right, I'm looking for guys, Okay, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna look it around. Like I like Ivan Aga, I
Speaker 1: like Framber Valdez, I like you know, guys like Aaron
Speaker 1: Nola who are just very steady every single year, right,
Speaker 1: Guys that I feel like I can count on. And
Speaker 1: then I want to get somebody that's got a little
Speaker 1: bit of something extra, and I feel like Grayson Rodriguez.
Speaker 1: One of these guys got a little bit of something
Speaker 1: extra where there's upside. He could be a fantasy A.
Speaker 1: So to me, you know, if you if you're starting
Speaker 1: a rotation there with one of those steady one a's
Speaker 1: and you back it up with a guy like Graci
Speaker 1: and Rodriguez, that's the recipe where you could really have
Speaker 1: something special and then a great offense on top of it.
Speaker 1: Next guy on our list, Justin Steele, friend of the show.
Speaker 1: You know he was in my must haves a couple
Speaker 1: of years ago. I've always been ahead of the curve.
Speaker 1: I feel like on Justin Steele, he's going at one
Speaker 1: twenty one overall the consensus ADP rankings over a fantasy pros.
Speaker 1: I'm in on the Cubs this year. I think they
Speaker 1: smell blood in the water in this division. Right say
Speaker 1: Lewis has taking a massive step back. I think you
Speaker 1: look at Milwaukee losing Devin Williams, losing william Doms' there's
Speaker 1: opportunity here for Chicago to step into this void. They
Speaker 1: acquired Justin excuse me, they acquired Kyle Tucker and now
Speaker 1: they have an opportunity with Justin Steel and showed at
Speaker 1: Imanaga and this pitching staff. They signed Matthew Boyd to
Speaker 1: really kind of push in a little bit and say, hey,
Speaker 1: we're gonna go all in for twenty twenty five. And
Speaker 1: if Steele can just get out there and make the
Speaker 1: thirty starts, I think he's a tremendous value. I think
Speaker 1: one of the more underappreciated starters the last couple of
Speaker 1: years went healthy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny too, because everybody knows that pays attention
Speaker 2: to our little world. I met Justin and hung out
Speaker 2: with him before the season last year, and one of
Speaker 2: the things that stood out outside of his love for
Speaker 2: Fantasy pros was him just talking up ivan Aga like
Speaker 2: he was on that. He was talking up Amanaga big time.
Speaker 2: But the thing is, you know, not enough people are
Speaker 2: talking about Justin because, like the profile on what he's
Speaker 2: been doing, he's not the biggest craziest strikeout pitcher in
Speaker 2: the world, but he had you know, twenty four percent
Speaker 2: K percentage, still maintained a relatively low walk rate. But
Speaker 2: the really big positives have been his maintenance of being
Speaker 2: able to create just bad contact against two twelve batting
Speaker 2: average expected batting average against under four percent or under
Speaker 2: four point two percent barrel rate, which was under what
Speaker 2: it was last year. Three point zero seven ERA, a
Speaker 2: two point seven four expected ERA, which is fantastic. He's
Speaker 2: got more run support this year and a crazy thing too.
Speaker 2: If you go and look, he was phenomenal in the
Speaker 2: first half last year. Looking at your splits, I think
Speaker 2: it was two seven to one. He raised a run
Speaker 2: in the second half of three point seven and two
Speaker 2: in less innings. But four of six months pitch last
Speaker 2: year he had a sub three ERA. There were only
Speaker 2: two months that kind of inflated. So you know, Justin's
Speaker 2: got He's got a good strikeout repertoire. He's gonna get
Speaker 2: low batting averages. He maintains his ra there's more run support.
Speaker 2: He goes outside the top one hundred and he kind
Speaker 2: of falls out of like the sexy, big strikeout pitchers
Speaker 2: that people are going for. I really want to see
Speaker 2: the health this year, and I want to get back
Speaker 2: to those big innings because I think there's an extra
Speaker 2: value on pitchers that are gonna get I've said this forore.
Speaker 2: One point eighty is the new two hundred or two
Speaker 2: twenty as far as innings pitched. There's just not enough
Speaker 2: guys that are doing that. If Justin could stay healthy
Speaker 2: and you get one seventy five out of him, he
Speaker 2: is going to beat this value. Definitely an underrated pitcher,
Speaker 2: maybe because he just doesn't he's not flashy is a
Speaker 2: good word to say for it.
Speaker 1: Well, when he got one seventy three out of him,
Speaker 1: just all the way back in twenty twenty three, he
Speaker 1: was an All Star. He finished fifth in the Cy
Speaker 1: Young voting and he had one hundred and seventy six
Speaker 1: strikeouts just thirty six walks. I mean that is an
Speaker 1: incredible strikeout to walk ratio. That's a guy who's going
Speaker 1: to dominate in the Hey, look the FIP every year
Speaker 1: three twenty three, h two, three twenty three. He's not
Speaker 1: a fluke. You know, you look at these eras in
Speaker 1: the low threes. That's Justin Steel and does not get
Speaker 1: enough credit. Jack Flaherty coming in next at one thirty eight,
Speaker 1: back in Detroit, somebody last year very controversial. I mean
Speaker 1: every show when is Welsh gonna talk about Jack Flaherty's
Speaker 1: regression And look, you know, Jack Flaherty turned in a
Speaker 1: really good season and now he went back to Detroit,
Speaker 1: which I gotta tell you if you had concerns about him,
Speaker 1: I think maybe this would be something that would be
Speaker 1: more positive. Right if you landed back in a new spot,
Speaker 1: maybe you feel differently about Jack flaherty. But because he
Speaker 1: went back to where all that success was basically regenerated
Speaker 1: for him with Detroit and whoever those voices were inside
Speaker 1: inside his head, very Randy Orton esque, whatever you want
Speaker 1: to call it, I think that that's probably a big
Speaker 1: positive for twenty twenty five. Does that assuage any fears
Speaker 1: of a twenty twenty five Jack flaherty disappointment for you, Welsh, No, I.
Speaker 3: Mean I love him going back there.
Speaker 2: If anything, Yeah, like playoff innings like we saw what
Speaker 2: happened with Zach Allen when you stacked up all those
Speaker 2: innings that maybe you know, body wasn't ready for. He
Speaker 2: had one hundred and forty four the year prior this
Speaker 2: past year he put up one hundred and sixty two,
Speaker 2: and then you had, you know, through the World Series,
Speaker 2: So that could be something to monitor. But as a
Speaker 2: Detroit Tiger, he had a three to one three era
Speaker 2: and ninety five innings. Dude posted almost two hundred strikeouts
Speaker 2: and one hundred and sixty four innings last year he was
Speaker 2: sick three point one seven ERA expected was just like
Speaker 2: a tiny bit higher, but I'm very excited about him
Speaker 2: being in this spot. He posted thirty six percent WFT
Speaker 2: rates on his two second most used pitches, thirty six
Speaker 2: percent with rate on his slider, forty three percent on
Speaker 2: his knuckle curve while putting up you know, a decent
Speaker 2: fastball fastball by the way, the twenty eight point seven
Speaker 2: percent K percentage, which like that's high for a fastball.
Speaker 2: He's getting big strikeouts. He's in a spot where he
Speaker 2: you know, lifted by Tarik Skooble, a solid young offense
Speaker 2: in there. We've seen him kind of just step up
Speaker 2: in his game to be a dominant strikeout pitcher that
Speaker 2: has lower ERA numbers, which that's what gets me excited.
Speaker 2: And the biggest one here were his role. Here were
Speaker 2: his four rolling walk percentages from twenty twenty to twenty
Speaker 2: twenty three nine point four percent, eight point one percent,
Speaker 2: three thirteen point two percent, and ten point two This
Speaker 2: past year five point two he became a high strikeout
Speaker 2: low walk that equates to around almost twenty five K
Speaker 2: minus walk percentage, which is like elite you give me
Speaker 2: that again. You give me one hundred and seventy innings
Speaker 2: on Flarity. Flarity is a deal, by the way, so
Speaker 2: the undervalue tag to this one thirty eight on the
Speaker 2: consensus ranks. He just still hasn't quite moved up. People
Speaker 2: haven't caught up to him. I love Flarity. Flarity is
Speaker 2: projected on the bat to have a ten point five
Speaker 2: to nine k per nine, which is crazy for a
Speaker 2: starting pitcher and a sub four era.
Speaker 3: I think Jack Flaherty is a smash.
Speaker 2: Pick for your like sp You can get him SP
Speaker 2: four in.
Speaker 3: A lot of instances. I really really love flair. This
Speaker 3: is one.
Speaker 2: I mean I did put him on here, so that's
Speaker 2: why it was one of my favorites.
Speaker 1: But I love Flarity as there was a time where
Speaker 1: you were not believing in Jack Flary.
Speaker 3: Well stuff like that. Yeah, I get it.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, if you go back to the year before,
Speaker 1: it was was ugly. You know, it's been ugly for
Speaker 1: a while with Jack Flaherty. But good to see him
Speaker 1: back on track. Smart move by the Tigers too, especially
Speaker 1: if you think Schooble is going to be out of
Speaker 1: your range sooner than later. Next guy on our list
Speaker 1: at one thirty nine overall the adp Ryan Wo of
Speaker 1: the Seattle Mariners. Now, Wo a guy that you know,
Speaker 1: I think people forget that as a minor league pitcher.
Speaker 1: We're talking about an elite level Caper nine guy. We're
Speaker 1: talking about like in the twelves. This is a dude,
Speaker 1: and there is a situation where if he's healthy and
Speaker 1: he is consistent, he is going to fit right in.
Speaker 1: If not, maybe even like start to join the conversation
Speaker 1: of some of these other guys at the top of
Speaker 1: that rotation out do I think he's as good as
Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert. No, but could he be Bryce Miller Ish?
Speaker 1: I think he ken like I think he's I think
Speaker 1: he is right on that precipice. If he can take
Speaker 1: some of that strikeout rate back in twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: and get that number back up, that's the key for
Speaker 1: him for that fantasy level we're looking at. But this
Speaker 1: is a very good young pitcher regardless, and I think
Speaker 1: somebody people should be very excited about. He's just twenty
Speaker 1: five years old. There's a lot more here. Good size
Speaker 1: six two two o five like, he's got a good frame.
Speaker 1: He's got what you're looking for in terms of all
Speaker 1: those other factors, and I think last year was sort
Speaker 1: of the coming out party, and now I think a
Speaker 1: tremendous value where you're looking to build out your rotation.
Speaker 1: What do you think of WU win twenty.
Speaker 2: Five, I like you said that's it was the coming
Speaker 2: out party. He's had such crazy trajectory. I was at
Speaker 2: his like, I think it was this pro debut in
Speaker 2: rookie ball where he just flew through the season, then
Speaker 2: went to the AFL, and then like halfway through the
Speaker 2: next year he's in the majors.
Speaker 3: It's crazy.
Speaker 2: And then last year he puts up one hundred and
Speaker 2: twenty one innings with a two point eight nine ERA
Speaker 2: totally built like a Seattle Mariners pitcher. It's low walks
Speaker 2: like the lowest two point eight walk per nine is bonkers.
Speaker 2: With a subra sub three ERA and an expected sub
Speaker 2: three ERA. He generates weak contact across the board. His
Speaker 2: problem is he just doesn't have a big strikeout thing
Speaker 2: going on twenty one percent k percentage.
Speaker 3: He uses a.
Speaker 2: Whole bunch of pitches. None of them are big whiff
Speaker 2: It's George Kirby like. And the thing is funny is
Speaker 2: he doesn't like tinker because I talked to him in spring.
Speaker 2: I've said this a million times, you know, talk to
Speaker 2: him in spraying. He's like, I'm not adding a split finger.
Speaker 2: He's just like he's his guy. It's low walk, it's
Speaker 2: low contact against. If you generate that over let's say
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty innings this year, there's immense value
Speaker 2: in it. And what I really like about him is
Speaker 2: sometimes I get when you go into like high strikeout pitchers,
Speaker 2: sometimes they have higher walk rates. You could all of
Speaker 2: a sudden have some inflated whip. Brian Wu's got the
Speaker 2: support of one of the best the best pitcher environment
Speaker 2: in Seattle doesn't have enough run support right now.
Speaker 3: But he's also low walk.
Speaker 2: He's gonna help your whip. I think he's got the
Speaker 2: chance to go deeper into games. And if he finds
Speaker 2: home between his pitches. He threw his sinker and four
Speaker 2: seam a combined over seventy percent usage, and then it's
Speaker 2: like nine percent slider, change up, sweeper. My point is
Speaker 2: if he finds a home for one of those pitches
Speaker 2: to be a strikeout pitch and he increases his k percentage.
Speaker 2: Now we're talking about him being not just like Walmart
Speaker 2: or Walgreens, George Kirby, but he might just be George
Speaker 2: Kirby light and he could really move up. But I
Speaker 2: think there's a really nice baseline with Brian Wu. He
Speaker 2: definitely is under He's a lot of target. He's a
Speaker 2: target for a lot of people. But he's right around
Speaker 2: the one fifty range. He is undervalued for what he
Speaker 2: does to a team, and he's he's a target. He
Speaker 2: definitely target.
Speaker 1: If he's your number four starter in your rotation for fantasy,
Speaker 1: how do you feel about that?
Speaker 2: I think it's I love that if you paired it
Speaker 2: with some high strikeout guys. So let's say you got
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, and then you waited and you
Speaker 2: got Flaherty. There's a little bit of maybe walk concerned
Speaker 2: with a guy like Blake Snell. There's huge strikeouts in there.
Speaker 2: Brian Wu would be a huge complimentary.
Speaker 1: Piece to that. Yeah, yeah, good point. Next guy in
Speaker 1: our list also a strikeout and one fifty you say, Kakuchi,
Speaker 1: who look, man? You know we got to give some
Speaker 1: credit here to this guy. Going back twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: with Toronto eleven k per nine twenty twenty three, nine
Speaker 1: point seven two k per nine last year with two
Speaker 1: teams ten point five to five. The strikeouts are there now.
Speaker 1: Wins might be hard to come by for the Angels
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. But this was an intriguing signing
Speaker 1: to me in the offseason because I was really curious
Speaker 1: where he was going to land, mainly because when I
Speaker 1: was doing the Black Book right up on him, the
Speaker 1: ERA was at four h five, but the XCRA was
Speaker 1: three seventy, the FIP was three forty six, the x
Speaker 1: FIP was three twenty like all these other indicators like
Speaker 1: Mankakuchi was really much better than the ERA even told you.
Speaker 1: And you're getting big time strikeouts and you're getting big
Speaker 1: time value. This is a player going right on the
Speaker 1: precipice of one to fifty overall. And to me, you
Speaker 1: could do a lot worse. Again, Yeah, chasing wins with him, no,
Speaker 1: But are you chasing strikeouts and trying to beef up
Speaker 1: towards the end late? I think the answer is yes.
Speaker 1: Thirty three years old and a guy that I think
Speaker 1: is you know, now established in the major leagues year
Speaker 1: and one of these tough lefties, and sometimes those lefties
Speaker 1: take a little bit longer to figure things out.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the thing I really love is I think he
Speaker 2: is one of we talked about like stats you can
Speaker 2: get later or you can't get later. It is hard
Speaker 2: in the hitter terms. It's hard to like pick up
Speaker 2: average later. People used to be like, oh, you know,
Speaker 2: you couldn't get stolen bases, so that's why you went high.
Speaker 3: You now can.
Speaker 2: Someone could argue it's hard to get like elite power
Speaker 2: late in drafts when you go over to the pitching side.
Speaker 2: I would argue to get like really good K potential
Speaker 2: you have to like later in drafts, you're usually betting
Speaker 2: on like prospects or rookies or someone to move, you know,
Speaker 2: into a rotation spot that's not projected. Kakuchi is not
Speaker 2: those things. Kakuchi's a guy that has solidified role inside
Speaker 2: of a rotation. He has one hundred and sixty seven
Speaker 2: innings over two straight years, and he's got an interesting
Speaker 2: profile that he just had a career high K percentage
Speaker 2: with a career low walk percentage, so it's like the
Speaker 2: case went up and the walks actually went down. He's
Speaker 2: got some worriesome like gives up some hard hit stuff.
Speaker 2: He registered, you know, MAXIV of one nineteen nine percent
Speaker 2: barrel is very very concerning. But all four pitches he
Speaker 2: throws twenty five percent or higher K percentage. Every pitch
Speaker 2: he throws is a potential strikeout pitch with a walk
Speaker 2: rate that is declining. The era tells us something as well.
Speaker 2: I think Kokuchi is just a really good piece to
Speaker 2: add to your rotations. You're starting rotations and fantasy, especially
Speaker 2: if you're maybe a tiny bit devoid of some strikeouts.
Speaker 2: You've got some mid line guys you're like, hey, I
Speaker 2: got Logan web over here. I took Brian wu. Let
Speaker 2: Kokuchi boost up those strikeouts a little bit.
Speaker 1: All right, these guys you should be adding to your
Speaker 1: cheat sheets. And remember the chee Cheet Creator is available
Speaker 1: for you right now. Enhance your fantasy baseball strategy. With
Speaker 1: the chie Cheet Creator. You can seamlessly integrate and merge
Speaker 1: all the rankings from all the different experts. Can take
Speaker 1: Welsh myself, whoever you think is really good at doing
Speaker 1: these rankings. Here, make Mike may Or maybe I guess
Speaker 1: we could throw him in there. He's pretty good. Begrudgingly,
Speaker 1: I'll give it to Mayor. Organized players into tears, add
Speaker 1: personal notes you could streamline all of that process for
Speaker 1: you and automatically update the cheat sheet with the latest
Speaker 1: expert consensus rankings to reflect the most current information. So
Speaker 1: you go into your draft you are ready to kick
Speaker 1: ass and take names. Use the cheat sheet creator at
Speaker 1: fantasybros dot com slash cheat sheet, or again, just download
Speaker 1: draft Wizard app and use the cheat sheeet creator on
Speaker 1: there too. Next guy on our list coming in at
Speaker 1: one sixty seven overall consensus. ADP whould have thought that
Speaker 1: the Mets would start to become the organization to turn
Speaker 1: around reclamation project pitchers. They did it with Semarino last year,
Speaker 1: and they also did it with Sean Menaya, who moved
Speaker 1: to the extreme left side of the rubber and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden became Chris Sale. I mean, I don't
Speaker 1: know what happened there, but it was dude. The guy
Speaker 1: was tremendous. Heap in the second half, had a four
Speaker 1: to one strikeout to walk Ratio. I have seen shohel
Speaker 1: Tani take very few uncomfortable at bats in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: He looked all kinds of befuddled against seaw Manaya. It
Speaker 1: was it was fun to watch as a Mets fan.
Speaker 1: It was very entertaining. I saw shoe A Tony take
Speaker 1: one of the worst wings I've ever seen him take
Speaker 1: against Shawl Manya, where he basically struck out and went, Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go sit down. He could not pick up
Speaker 1: the baseball. It was incredibly difficult. Now the big question
Speaker 1: is the ADP is here for a reason because people
Speaker 1: are saying, okay, Ken, you do it again. To be
Speaker 1: honest with you, Welsh at this stage in the ADP,
Speaker 1: at one sixty seven, I'm taking that risk there. I
Speaker 1: absolutely think he can. This Mets team is going to
Speaker 1: be good defensively, They're going to be good offensively. And
Speaker 1: I think at the same time, you're looking at Shan
Speaker 1: Manya being in a very comfortable situation where he's confident. Sure,
Speaker 1: the playoff innings, all the extra stuff, that's fine. But
Speaker 1: Manaia another guy that feels like he's just been around forever.
Speaker 1: He has bounced around everywhere, and that typically means it's
Speaker 1: a guy with talent. You're just waiting for somebody to
Speaker 1: crack the code, and it feels like last year it
Speaker 1: got cracked.
Speaker 2: That's an interesting way to say it, that the code
Speaker 2: was cracked. Part of that was because of a pitchment
Speaker 2: mix change, and that's usually what it is. Some of
Speaker 2: these guys just you know, refining to find that.
Speaker 1: Performenta move to the other side of the rock, like
Speaker 1: all these little things. And of course, as you're saying,
Speaker 1: the pitch mix too, the combination of those three things.
Speaker 1: He wasn't good. He was elite.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, arm angles really interesting on that you
Speaker 2: can see on Baseball Savant. They had these arm angled charts.
Speaker 2: In twenty three, he had like a twenty eight degree
Speaker 2: launch angle, which was the second highest highest of his career.
Speaker 2: He dropped it down to the lowest of his career
Speaker 2: to twenty two.
Speaker 3: That's dramatic.
Speaker 2: I know that doesn't mean like a whole bunch of everybody,
Speaker 2: but like he dropped dramatically his arm even more kind
Speaker 2: of a you know, coming from a side plane than
Speaker 2: he had ever done before.
Speaker 3: He did that.
Speaker 2: While changing his pitch mix from going primary four seam
Speaker 2: fastball and change up the year prior, which accounted for
Speaker 2: over seventy percent of pitches thrown, to going primary sinker
Speaker 2: and then sweeper. He threw the sweeper almost twenty percent
Speaker 2: of the time. That thing had a forty one percent
Speaker 2: k percentage. It was devastating. So you know you're inducing
Speaker 2: just like lower quality contact with a sinker, and you're
Speaker 2: setting that up with this big sweeping sweeper that had
Speaker 2: crazy strikeout percentages. And then you know he's still able
Speaker 2: to mix in. You've got that change up. He threw
Speaker 2: eleven percent of the time the four team still kind
Speaker 2: of keeping guys honest, and that change up sweeper combination,
Speaker 2: that was the fix. He just the arm angle equated
Speaker 2: to the and he lowered the velocity by the way
Speaker 2: of the sweeper. It just became his big devastating pitch.
Speaker 2: It's the pitch du joor or two years ago as
Speaker 2: a sweeper. This past year it was a splitter, but
Speaker 2: it's worked for him. He found the combination. I do
Speaker 2: think he is undervalued. He's not exactly my biggest target
Speaker 2: on the planet. But you know what, he's going to
Speaker 2: get innings with an offense of Soto and Lindor leading
Speaker 2: the way. He had an an expected era that's supported.
Speaker 2: It was still under four and he's got a big,
Speaker 2: massive strikeout pitch. It's kind of hard to argue. The
Speaker 2: other thing I really liked he was first to second
Speaker 2: half almost the same pitcher around a three point four
Speaker 2: era on both sides, so he was consistent throughout the year.
Speaker 2: So I think this pitch mix really works for him.
Speaker 2: It's enabling him to be a higher strikeout guy twenty
Speaker 2: essentially twenty five percent. I just love for him to
Speaker 2: walk a little bit less. But he's making it work
Speaker 2: and you're getting into free range. It's kind of hard,
Speaker 2: Like I know, people are like always arguing about everything
Speaker 2: anybody does, like.
Speaker 3: This is you do. This guy's undervalued, but.
Speaker 2: It's like outside the one fifty, Like I really don't
Speaker 2: know how anybody makes arguments that these guys aren't value.
Speaker 1: He was my number four than than Brian Wu in
Speaker 1: my rotation.
Speaker 2: If you're gonna unless you think they're gonna can blow
Speaker 2: up and completely regress, Like I don't see.
Speaker 1: The innings total is a big one Welsh, right. The
Speaker 1: innings total is the thing where you look at and
Speaker 1: you go, oh, innings one eighty something and then on
Speaker 1: you know that's a high and then long the jump
Speaker 1: from year to year, yeah, the jump too. But he
Speaker 1: is an older picture. He's not a slight guy. Like
Speaker 1: I just I feel like it's I feel like it's sustainable,
Speaker 1: and I feel like mentally too, to come back where
Speaker 1: he had so much success, kind of like Flawerty that
Speaker 1: conversation when somebody gets you on track, the confidence, when
Speaker 1: you take them out, it just oozes and and that's
Speaker 1: why he like, I have a morbid Frankie Mantas curiosity
Speaker 1: based on Severino in Manaya, because it's not like Montos
Speaker 1: at times when he was healthy, wasn't a good picture
Speaker 1: in the major leagues. When he was with the athletics,
Speaker 1: he was a good picture for a while there, and
Speaker 1: then injuries obviously derailed that, but we'll see again. I
Speaker 1: want to emphasize the word morbid curiosity. Brandon fought at
Speaker 1: one eighty. Friend of this channel too. We've been very
Speaker 1: into Brandon fought for a long time, and I think
Speaker 1: it's just completely unfair. I think this ADP is absurd.
Speaker 1: A guy who's gonna get you, you know, k per
Speaker 1: nine nine, k per nine in that range, right, he's
Speaker 1: gonna give you a strikeout in inning he had a
Speaker 1: four to seven one ERA, but that's not the story.
Speaker 1: His XCRA was a full run lower. His fit was
Speaker 1: three sixty one is x fit is three fifty eight.
Speaker 1: If you tack on let's say a three six one
Speaker 1: ERA to Brandon Fott, there's no way he's at this ADP.
Speaker 1: I think this is just lazy fantasy and lazy drafting.
Speaker 1: And Brandon Fott is a guy that I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: a lot of shares of. Oh wait oh when he's
Speaker 1: on an offense scores a crap ton of runs. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Brandon fought well.
Speaker 2: I think the biggest negative though, is your people are
Speaker 2: looking at how the season ended and it kind of
Speaker 2: fell apart. He had a three nine seven ERA in
Speaker 2: the first half, but Joe five point nine to three
Speaker 2: in the second half. That was a two run jump.
Speaker 2: His final two months of the season he had a
Speaker 2: six and a seven ERA, and people are just losing
Speaker 2: their minds about it.
Speaker 3: The argument I.
Speaker 2: Would have is, like career high, he went from ninety
Speaker 2: six innings to one hundred and eighty one this past year.
Speaker 2: The expected array is a full run higher. I also
Speaker 2: think from just like a pitch standpoint, he's he's actually
Speaker 2: kind of like Manaiya. It's like you've got this like
Speaker 2: fastball sinker situation that is put with one of the
Speaker 2: best sweepers in baseball. It's an elitd sweeper. It's an
Speaker 2: elite strikeout pitch. It generated a thirty five percent k percentage.
Speaker 2: His problem is been Homer's and he can't get out
Speaker 2: like he has like a one point five whip against
Speaker 2: lefties and a sub one whip against righty. So, you know,
Speaker 2: I would assume that might be maybe a pitching coat.
Speaker 2: That's why Brett Stawm was fired also, as they you know,
Speaker 2: they moved him on the rubber a little bit, but
Speaker 2: maybe it's just a little bit more of a change
Speaker 2: up to, you know, be a little bit more baddly
Speaker 2: against left handed hitters. But you know he's working on
Speaker 2: that fastball becoming a little bit better. But again it
Speaker 2: is the best, one of the best sweepers in all
Speaker 2: of baseball. Expected numbers are on his side. Year over year,
Speaker 2: he did lower quality of contact against hard hit percentage
Speaker 2: went down under forty percent. Barrel went from eleven the
Speaker 2: year prior down to eight. He's a young pitcher that's
Speaker 2: making moves. He was phenomenal in the first half. I
Speaker 2: think the strikeout potential could pop up. He was around
Speaker 2: twenty four percent and by the way, even in his
Speaker 2: struggles with the fastball and the Homers five percent walk grate.
Speaker 2: That's great, you're almost a twenty percent K minus walk
Speaker 2: percentage guy. I clearly I'm a stupid Homer. With Brandon Fott,
Speaker 2: I've watched him for years and the miners, I think
Speaker 2: this guy can be an elite pitcher. And we have
Speaker 2: seen some massive adjustments he has made since he's been
Speaker 2: up in the majors, and people are kind of crying about, Oh,
Speaker 2: it's gonna be this. It's like, no, man, the sweeper's
Speaker 2: gotten better. He's throwing more than two pitches. They've moved
Speaker 2: him on the rubber. I think you're going to see
Speaker 2: another big jump. Expected stats are kind of telling that story.
Speaker 2: And if the Homers drop at all, Brandon Fott is
Speaker 2: going to blow past this. And again, this is outside
Speaker 2: the one fifty seam and I and Brandon Fott are
Speaker 2: two great like sp or six or something you could
Speaker 2: throw into your fantasy rotations that have got a ton
Speaker 2: of upside.
Speaker 1: Look, he jumped from ninety six things to one hundred
Speaker 1: and eighty. I think it was just fatigue. He had
Speaker 1: never crossed a hundre manjor league getings before he's twenty
Speaker 1: five years old. I am not concerned. I am not worried.
Speaker 3: He's alwa he's sweating. If you ever watch him, he's
Speaker 3: always just read when he's swatened.
Speaker 1: He just I said, I think you can attribute it
Speaker 1: to fatigue and hitting the wall and just like trying
Speaker 1: mentally and physically to get past that. That out of
Speaker 1: the way. Now, all the other numbers are really good.
Speaker 1: I'm in on Brandon Fopp. You can't get me off
Speaker 1: the Brandon Fop. I don't care what the finish was.
Speaker 1: I think it was just a hit in the wall scenario.
Speaker 1: So now I want him next guy those at one
Speaker 1: ninety one. I don't remember putting this guy in. Is
Speaker 1: this a guy that Welsh replaced here? Last?
Speaker 3: This is a Welsh replacement guy.
Speaker 1: I did not put him in, So I am not
Speaker 1: going to speak to him. Zach Efflin one ninety one,
Speaker 1: So all right own this for the people Welsh. Give
Speaker 1: him the low down on ef Flin.
Speaker 2: All right, well, if you like Brian wu, let me
Speaker 2: present Zach Eflin to you. At one ninety one, he
Speaker 2: had a three to five nine ERA and expected three
Speaker 2: six seven ERA.
Speaker 3: He had a nineteen percent k percentage. What sucks.
Speaker 2: That's not good, but he paired it with a three
Speaker 2: point five walk percentage. It's like two percent off of
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate of Brian Wu and one percent higher
Speaker 2: walk rate. It's one of the elite walks walk rates
Speaker 2: out there. Quality of contact, we need a little bit
Speaker 2: more improvement on, like Brian Wu has that, and that's
Speaker 2: why WU is costing more. But if you're looking for
Speaker 2: like a mid era guy on a we're talking about Baltimore.
Speaker 2: We started the show with Grayson Rodriguez. You've got win potential.
Speaker 2: You got a guy that's gone one sixty five at
Speaker 2: least in two straight seasons, so he can eat some innings.
Speaker 2: He's really low walk you're gonna have low whip, good era.
Speaker 2: You're just not gonna have a big stance. As far
Speaker 2: as like strikeouts go, I like, I like the repertoire.
Speaker 2: Maybe there's some strikeout potential, but again I think there's
Speaker 2: just solid run support for a guy that can eat
Speaker 2: innings and is not going to just blow up your team.
Speaker 3: So you're talking about not all.
Speaker 2: Underrated pitchers have to be these big, flashy, explosive strikeout guys.
Speaker 2: We love that, but sometimes we also need to mark
Speaker 2: this is a guy that's not gonna hurt my whip.
Speaker 3: He's gonna eat innings. He's got win.
Speaker 2: Potential with his team, and that is a value. And
Speaker 2: at almost two hundred, Zach Efflin's a value. So that's
Speaker 2: why we had to throw him in here. He can
Speaker 2: be a little bit boring, but a three five VRA
Speaker 2: guy going around two hundred on Baltimore that's gonna get
Speaker 2: probably projected around one hundred and eighty innings, that's undervalued.
Speaker 1: All right. You know who's not boring going outside the
Speaker 1: top two hundred, A six foot six tall drink of
Speaker 1: water in Cincinnati, who throws hard, he's left handed. It's
Speaker 1: Nicoladolo on buying back in. He wasn't good in the
Speaker 1: minor leagues. He was dominant in the minor leagues. Okay,
Speaker 1: five minor league seasons, roughly ninety six innings pitched over them.
Speaker 1: So again the smaller sample size, but we're talking about
Speaker 1: domination here. We're talking about a two seventy era. We're
Speaker 1: talking about a strikeout rate of thirteen point nine, a
Speaker 1: walk rate of two walks per nine. Like, this is
Speaker 1: a guy that you know, I understand health has been troubling.
Speaker 1: I understand the eras have been high. I understand, you know,
Speaker 1: all the things that have gone wrong with Nick Lodolo,
Speaker 1: But you could also look at the director of Hunter
Speaker 1: Green and say, okay, well, last year Hunter Green really
Speaker 1: started to put it together. And Lodolo and Green are
Speaker 1: two very special arm talents. If they can learn about
Speaker 1: pitching right at the major league level, this is a
Speaker 1: guy that could really take off in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: And I'm looking at Lodolo as one of these guys
Speaker 1: I'm drafting as a bench pitcher that has the ability
Speaker 1: to basically end up being like a number three fantasy
Speaker 1: starter if things break right, and if they don't, it
Speaker 1: doesn't cost me a lot to find out. I think
Speaker 1: to have that sort of upside make some very undervalued
Speaker 1: outside of top two hundred. And I like this Reds
Speaker 1: team in twenty five.
Speaker 2: Okay, so this is an interesting one where I had Efflund.
Speaker 2: I almost took this off and I was gonna place
Speaker 2: with Chris Sanchez. Really love the value of Chris Sanchez,
Speaker 2: even though it's coming up with the strikeout potentially, I
Speaker 2: like him too, But I left this also to get
Speaker 2: your take on it. And to say that, like I
Speaker 2: have had obsessions with Nick Lodolo for years. I've did
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago doing the you know, every
Speaker 2: other week. It was like, hey, listen, you want to
Speaker 2: trade for somebody got a trade for Lodolo. It's the
Speaker 2: injuries that keep me off. The guy hasn't gone over
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteen innings over the last three years.
Speaker 3: But if he does stay healthy.
Speaker 2: Back to your point, he had expected era that was
Speaker 2: a full run lower this past year than his actual era.
Speaker 2: He has got one of the nastiest curve balls. It's ridiculous.
Speaker 2: It just the top to bottom drop. It's a huge
Speaker 2: strikeout pitch that he sets up with a fastball, which,
Speaker 2: by the way, a fastball that was better year over
Speaker 2: year was a full mile per hour faster, went from
Speaker 2: ninety three point two up to ninety four point one.
Speaker 2: And he's got a change up in there that had
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent with rate. I think that changeup
Speaker 2: needs to get a little bit better and then he's
Speaker 2: going to be able to establish himself as like more
Speaker 2: of a threat because the walks are still a little
Speaker 2: bit high, and I think he's a guy that should
Speaker 2: run higher. K percentage. He had twenty eight percent two
Speaker 2: years ago. It was down to twenty four percent this
Speaker 2: past year. If he can stay healthy, I do think
Speaker 2: he has the makings of being kind of like a
Speaker 2: Maybe the designation would be more sleeper, but I will
Speaker 2: I'll give you this from the underrated standpoint.
Speaker 3: Is what you said. If he breaks right.
Speaker 2: Things could be big and he is undervalued. And if
Speaker 2: he doesn't, we're now in arrange for this picture. In
Speaker 2: the next one outside the top two hundred, you can
Speaker 2: get into a streaming battle and you can just start
Speaker 2: streaming pictures if it doesn't work out. So where this
Speaker 2: isn't necessarily my big pick. I do buy exactly what
Speaker 2: you're selling. I think I just have like serious worries
Speaker 2: about the injury. This dude cannot stay healthy. I don't
Speaker 2: know what it's going to take. I'm not sure the
Speaker 2: Reds have this big, great track record of pitchure health.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess Hunter Green has turned it around,
Speaker 2: but Lodolo hasn't been able to stay out. So it's
Speaker 2: kind of a proved me type of thing.
Speaker 1: To your point, Sanchez A safer why I agree one
Speaker 1: hundred percent? Just looking for safety. Sanchez A. Safer. I
Speaker 1: also think just as an asset, Lodolo is fascinating because
Speaker 1: if he looks really good coming out of spring right
Speaker 1: and he's blowing guys away in April and May, I
Speaker 1: think you could trade him for a boltload because of
Speaker 1: the innings issue you're talking about, then might creep up
Speaker 1: later in the season. So I think he's like an
Speaker 1: asset more than anything. When I'm talking about like I
Speaker 1: want to have ass I want to have talent on
Speaker 1: my roster to try and make the moves when I
Speaker 1: need to make the moves and get the best of
Speaker 1: the upside of a player. Last Bininarialist, a guy that
Speaker 1: has teased greatness before. Another left handed starter, now finds
Speaker 1: himself on the Philadelphia Phillies at two thirty three. Hazus
Speaker 1: Lozardo a guy that has been argued on this show
Speaker 1: by many an analyst for many, many years and has
Speaker 1: been around for a while. He's had some health issues,
Speaker 1: some performance issues, and then some peak. Right now he's
Speaker 1: going from Miami to Philadelphia. You can't ask for a
Speaker 1: better jump. Do you see Lizardo as a guy that
Speaker 1: you want to take a shot to buy back in
Speaker 1: on In twenty twenty five because it feels like going
Speaker 1: outside the top two hundred for a guy who not
Speaker 1: that long ago was looking like a dominant guy on
Speaker 1: the rise now is a starting pitcher that feels almost forgotten.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the big thing I did this
Speaker 2: show on this league of talking sleepers, and Frank Stanfele
Speaker 2: had targeted Hazus Lozardo is a sleeper of his. And
Speaker 2: I think it's really interesting because there are some guys
Speaker 2: I've just taken this token with where you look at
Speaker 2: a player, you're just like they were really bad and
Speaker 2: nothing tells the story from last year.
Speaker 3: But sometimes that's the anomaly.
Speaker 2: Boba Schett and his example of that on the offensive side,
Speaker 2: Like you look and it's just like it was so
Speaker 2: bad last year that it's like that feels more of
Speaker 2: the anomaly to than the career. And you could be wrong.
Speaker 2: Lozardo's kind of the same thing because last year only
Speaker 2: sixty six innings, tons of injuries, a five era, absolutely
Speaker 2: inflated hard contact through the roof, he lost a mile
Speaker 2: per hour over about a mile and a half per
Speaker 2: hour on his fastball. All of those things are not great,
Speaker 2: and it didn't generate any whiffs but that is more
Speaker 2: than the anomaly than anything, because the years prior three
Speaker 2: point three to two and one hundred innings three point
Speaker 2: five eight ERA tons of strikeouts. He had two hundred
Speaker 2: and eight strikeouts just a year prior to that, with
Speaker 2: lower whip numbers twenty eight percent K percentage in twenty three,
Speaker 2: twenty one this past year, lower walk rate three point
Speaker 2: five expected actual ERA the year prior. So you look
Speaker 2: at all of that and you go man health was
Speaker 2: a huge problem with him last year. He has shown
Speaker 2: bigger fastball, bigger strikes out, and now he's going to
Speaker 2: go to a much better team, much better environment. So
Speaker 2: if he's healthy and you got the run support in
Speaker 2: Philly with that strike up potential. Also pointing out I
Speaker 2: said Chris Sanchez, I think they are doing great things
Speaker 2: with their pitchers. We might be able to kind of
Speaker 2: refig oh Sanchez is working on a new fourth pitch here.
Speaker 1: They thought Wheeler to that level that we were always
Speaker 1: told Wheeler was, but as you know, when you watch
Speaker 1: a bit for the Mets, you never saw you would
Speaker 1: see him do that for a start or two, but
Speaker 1: never consistently. And Wheeler's become one of the best pitchers
Speaker 1: in baseball.
Speaker 2: But also like Ranger Suarez had, this really.
Speaker 1: Is another grade.
Speaker 3: Chris Sanna a great job.
Speaker 1: Too bad they can't get a bullpen straight to save
Speaker 1: their life over there, But you know they they certainly
Speaker 1: look a tough ballpark in terms of home runs. Sure,
Speaker 1: but you know, going to the point you're making too
Speaker 1: about taking a flyer and a guy like Lizardo who
Speaker 1: has a strikeout rate. Let's also not forget that he
Speaker 1: is just twenty seven years old. We are kind of spoiled.
Speaker 1: He's been around so long because he was such a
Speaker 1: big hyped prospect that I think there's a little Lizardo
Speaker 1: fatigue in the fantasy baseball space. Would you think that
Speaker 1: that's irrelevant?
Speaker 2: Well, I just think people are just done, like they're overright,
Speaker 2: the like fatigue.
Speaker 1: Is twenty seven? Is it time to give up on
Speaker 1: him at twenty seven?
Speaker 2: Well, and to be fair, like again, twenty twenty three
Speaker 2: wasn't that bad of a season.
Speaker 3: I think there's some fixes in there.
Speaker 2: You can see he had the highest arm angle of
Speaker 2: his career this past season when their struggles. Maybe that
Speaker 2: speaks to the injury and how he was able to
Speaker 2: throw get that arm back down a little bit that
Speaker 2: you're healthy.
Speaker 3: How about and go.
Speaker 2: And pitch with one of the best change ups in
Speaker 2: baseball and Chris Sanchez, and you can learn that this
Speaker 2: guy throws at twenty percent of the time. I think
Speaker 2: there's a lot of trajectory things that are working in
Speaker 2: favor of Lozardo and if you want to just look
Speaker 2: at more of a bigger window than just last year.
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think the track record speaks for
Speaker 2: itself that he legitimately could be a twenty eight percent
Speaker 2: k guy, lower walks better era and now he's got
Speaker 2: a better support system around him and better offense. And
Speaker 2: most importantly, he's undervalued because he's free two thirty three
Speaker 2: overall out it's almost the end of your draft. Lozarda
Speaker 2: is just a great value pick that really could hit,
Speaker 2: and that's why we targeted him as one of the
Speaker 2: undervalued pitchers.
Speaker 1: Grayson Rodriguez, Justin Steele, Jack Flaherty, Brian woo Youse, Kakucie Shuman,
Speaker 1: and Iyah Brandon Fought, Zach Eflin, Nicko Lodolo, and Hazus Lozardo.
Speaker 1: Those are the names on our list, But who's on
Speaker 1: your list? Drop your comments below Your most undervalued, underappreciated
Speaker 1: ADP pitchers in the twenty twenty five Fantasy Baseball Draft season.
Speaker 1: We love to hear from you on the YouTube channel.
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