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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey p Joe piz

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Speaker 1: Appia with me is my boy the Welsh, and today

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Speaker 1: we're gonna talk about ten undervalued pitchers. I went back

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Speaker 1: to last year's list to see how we did. I

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Speaker 1: would say pretty good. Here are the names on last

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Speaker 1: year's list that were undervalued that we thought you should

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Speaker 1: be drafting. Blake Snell, he was pretty good. Welsh, I

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Speaker 1: would say he was all right. Joe Ryan Uri Perez

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Speaker 1: was a tease. We didn't quite get all that help.

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Speaker 1: I know we were there, we were there, it just

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Speaker 1: didn't work out. Kyle Bradish didn't work out for him,

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Speaker 1: but it did work out for Cole Reagan's, Carlos Rodon Bailey, Ober,

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Speaker 1: some of those names. So we're gonna try to hit

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Speaker 1: on some names for twenty twenty five. Don't forget to

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Speaker 1: subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB. Of course, ring the bell

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Speaker 1: to lekos Dang for notification. So you are with us

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Speaker 1: all draft season for the Mox for the Pods, and

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Speaker 1: then leading off coming at you in just a few

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Speaker 1: weeks in unbelievable time, to be alive and excited, and

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Speaker 1: while you're hanging out watching the podcast, listening to the

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Speaker 1: podcast wherever you get your pods, you can subscribe there

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Speaker 1: to the audio feed too. Of course, you should be

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Speaker 1: doing some mock drafts and you should be using draft Wizard.

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Speaker 1: Download the MLB Draft Wizard app today. It is the

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Speaker 1: ultimate sheet code for you to get in there start

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Speaker 1: crafting your rosters for twenty twenty five. Use the pick

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Speaker 1: predictor use all of the tools that are there for you,

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Speaker 1: the cheat sheets and more where you can go ahead,

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Speaker 1: take the rankings, take the insights, and get the best

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Speaker 1: teams you possibly can with the draft simulator on draft Wizard.

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Speaker 1: And of course when you sink your leagues, you can

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Speaker 1: use draft Wizard right in your real draft. I use

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Speaker 1: it for all the NFL drafts I did last year.

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Speaker 1: It was incredible. I'm using it for MLB again this year.

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Speaker 1: It's the way to go, and again it's how you're

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Speaker 1: going to dominate and embarrass all your friends and relatives

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Speaker 1: and beat them into submission. Because that's why we play

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Speaker 1: fantasy sports. It's not about the love of the game.

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Speaker 1: It's about embarrassing our friends and loved ones. So if

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Speaker 1: you want to do that, Draft Wizard is the tool

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Speaker 1: for you again. Download the app right now or go

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Speaker 1: to Fantasy Broos dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard. All right, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: first name on the list. We're gonna kick it off.

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Speaker 1: These guys all currently, I want to emphasize currently, as

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Speaker 1: of early February recording this, they're going outside the top

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Speaker 1: one hundred. I want to start with a guy that

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Speaker 1: I've taken in some mock drafts, and you've already taken

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Speaker 1: in a mock draft just yesterday. Grayson Rodriguez, all the

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Speaker 1: Baltimore Orioles. I feel like, again, this is a player

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Speaker 1: we are just getting the teas as of right, we've

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Speaker 1: seen what the upside look like and it's electric. Now

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Speaker 1: they let Corbyn Burns walk, and if you're gonna let

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Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns walk, you better be rest assured that they

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Speaker 1: think that Grayson Rodriguez is ready to take that next

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Speaker 1: step to truly be the ACE. So I know, the

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Speaker 1: end of the year didn't work out the way the

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Speaker 1: Orioles quite wanted. They fell short there for a World

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Speaker 1: Series run, but still an incredibly young team and Grayson

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Speaker 1: Rodriguez still has the upside to be a fantasy ace,

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Speaker 1: and you're getting him outside of the top one hundred, Welsh,

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Speaker 1: I don't see how that's not undervalued at this point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I do think he floats in this undervalued and

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure he's like the most screaming of all time.

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Speaker 2: But because one of the things that you're doing is

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Speaker 2: you are being like, all right, does he take that

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Speaker 2: next big step? And I'm not sure that there's like

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Speaker 2: a gajillion things that stand out to be like, oh

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Speaker 2: my gosh, guys, he's going to do bop bop. But

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Speaker 2: I will say that, like outside the top one hundred,

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Speaker 2: he's a guy that could easily flow seventy five picks

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Speaker 2: or twenty five picks higher into around the seventy five

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Speaker 2: ish range. Like if someone told me right now he

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Speaker 2: could be a top twenty sp this season, I really

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Speaker 2: wouldn't be too shocked.

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Speaker 3: There's great team support that's there.

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Speaker 2: Fastball is complimented with two really great pitches, the change

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Speaker 2: up and slider both had a twenty seven or higher

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Speaker 2: percent K percentage. So those are two big strikeout pitches

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Speaker 2: with a fastball that did come down year over year

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Speaker 2: average ninety seven in twenty twenty three. It was ninety

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Speaker 2: six this past year, but it's still a great pitch.

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Speaker 2: I had a twenty seven percent with rate, so you've

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Speaker 2: got this great repertoire with a profile. As far as

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Speaker 2: again hitters that he was able to lower the zone

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Speaker 2: contact rate that he was giving up. He lowered the

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Speaker 2: hard hit while increasing his strikeout rate this past year.

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Speaker 2: A little caveat would be that they are making the

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Speaker 2: right field wall a little bit more hitter friendly where

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Speaker 2: the I'm sorry, yeah, left field wall where the right

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Speaker 2: field wall is a little bit more pitcher friendly. So

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Speaker 2: they're taking out some of that pitcher friendly environment.

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Speaker 3: But home runs are not, like.

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Speaker 2: Really a huge crazy issue. He was a little bit

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Speaker 2: better in the second half. He had a three eight

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Speaker 2: six ERA with an expected three seven to two. If

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Speaker 2: we get down to around three five watch out projections.

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Speaker 2: Looking at the bat system, he's the thirty sixth war

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Speaker 2: pitcher projected for a ten and eight record, one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty innings, around a nine and a half k

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Speaker 2: per nine in a two point seven walk per nine.

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Speaker 2: I think there is some room for growth there. I

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Speaker 2: think top thirty makes a decent amount of sense, and

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Speaker 2: outside the top one hundred. If you're looking for actual,

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Speaker 2: true young pitchers today take that next big step. He

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Speaker 2: is one of those guys, So like, I buy the

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Speaker 2: under value.

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Speaker 3: I think he's the biggest screen.

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Speaker 2: Of this list, but he's also the highest, so it's like,

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Speaker 2: probably not gonna feel that way as well. Grayson definitely

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Speaker 2: has an undervalued tag attached to his name when guys

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Speaker 2: like Bailey Obert and stuff are going higher.

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Speaker 1: Look, I do all the picture write ups for the

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Black Book, now available on Amazon, and Grayson

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Speaker 1: Orriguez for me, is one of my favorite guys because

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Speaker 1: I'm somebody that likes to go offense early, and you've

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Speaker 1: seen that in the mock drafts that I do here

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Speaker 1: on the program, right, And when I'm looking for my

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Speaker 1: tandem starting pitchers, right, I'm looking for guys, Okay, I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna look it around. Like I like Ivan Aga, I

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Speaker 1: like Framber Valdez, I like you know, guys like Aaron

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Speaker 1: Nola who are just very steady every single year, right,

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Speaker 1: Guys that I feel like I can count on. And

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Speaker 1: then I want to get somebody that's got a little

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Speaker 1: bit of something extra, and I feel like Grayson Rodriguez.

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Speaker 1: One of these guys got a little bit of something

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Speaker 1: extra where there's upside. He could be a fantasy A.

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Speaker 1: So to me, you know, if you if you're starting

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Speaker 1: a rotation there with one of those steady one a's

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Speaker 1: and you back it up with a guy like Graci

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Speaker 1: and Rodriguez, that's the recipe where you could really have

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Speaker 1: something special and then a great offense on top of it.

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Speaker 1: Next guy on our list, Justin Steele, friend of the show.

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Speaker 1: You know he was in my must haves a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago. I've always been ahead of the curve.

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Speaker 1: I feel like on Justin Steele, he's going at one

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Speaker 1: twenty one overall the consensus ADP rankings over a fantasy pros.

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Speaker 1: I'm in on the Cubs this year. I think they

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Speaker 1: smell blood in the water in this division. Right say

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Speaker 1: Lewis has taking a massive step back. I think you

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Speaker 1: look at Milwaukee losing Devin Williams, losing william Doms' there's

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Speaker 1: opportunity here for Chicago to step into this void. They

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Speaker 1: acquired Justin excuse me, they acquired Kyle Tucker and now

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Speaker 1: they have an opportunity with Justin Steel and showed at

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Speaker 1: Imanaga and this pitching staff. They signed Matthew Boyd to

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Speaker 1: really kind of push in a little bit and say, hey,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna go all in for twenty twenty five. And

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Speaker 1: if Steele can just get out there and make the

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Speaker 1: thirty starts, I think he's a tremendous value. I think

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Speaker 1: one of the more underappreciated starters the last couple of

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Speaker 1: years went healthy.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny too, because everybody knows that pays attention

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Speaker 2: to our little world. I met Justin and hung out

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Speaker 2: with him before the season last year, and one of

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Speaker 2: the things that stood out outside of his love for

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Speaker 2: Fantasy pros was him just talking up ivan Aga like

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Speaker 2: he was on that. He was talking up Amanaga big time.

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Speaker 2: But the thing is, you know, not enough people are

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Speaker 2: talking about Justin because, like the profile on what he's

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Speaker 2: been doing, he's not the biggest craziest strikeout pitcher in

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Speaker 2: the world, but he had you know, twenty four percent

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Speaker 2: K percentage, still maintained a relatively low walk rate. But

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Speaker 2: the really big positives have been his maintenance of being

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Speaker 2: able to create just bad contact against two twelve batting

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Speaker 2: average expected batting average against under four percent or under

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Speaker 2: four point two percent barrel rate, which was under what

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Speaker 2: it was last year. Three point zero seven ERA, a

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Speaker 2: two point seven four expected ERA, which is fantastic. He's

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Speaker 2: got more run support this year and a crazy thing too.

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Speaker 2: If you go and look, he was phenomenal in the

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Speaker 2: first half last year. Looking at your splits, I think

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Speaker 2: it was two seven to one. He raised a run

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Speaker 2: in the second half of three point seven and two

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Speaker 2: in less innings. But four of six months pitch last

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Speaker 2: year he had a sub three ERA. There were only

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Speaker 2: two months that kind of inflated. So you know, Justin's

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Speaker 2: got He's got a good strikeout repertoire. He's gonna get

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Speaker 2: low batting averages. He maintains his ra there's more run support.

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Speaker 2: He goes outside the top one hundred and he kind

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Speaker 2: of falls out of like the sexy, big strikeout pitchers

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Speaker 2: that people are going for. I really want to see

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Speaker 2: the health this year, and I want to get back

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Speaker 2: to those big innings because I think there's an extra

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Speaker 2: value on pitchers that are gonna get I've said this forore.

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Speaker 2: One point eighty is the new two hundred or two

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Speaker 2: twenty as far as innings pitched. There's just not enough

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Speaker 2: guys that are doing that. If Justin could stay healthy

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Speaker 2: and you get one seventy five out of him, he

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Speaker 2: is going to beat this value. Definitely an underrated pitcher,

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Speaker 2: maybe because he just doesn't he's not flashy is a

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Speaker 2: good word to say for it.

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Speaker 1: Well, when he got one seventy three out of him,

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Speaker 1: just all the way back in twenty twenty three, he

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Speaker 1: was an All Star. He finished fifth in the Cy

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Speaker 1: Young voting and he had one hundred and seventy six

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Speaker 1: strikeouts just thirty six walks. I mean that is an

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Speaker 1: incredible strikeout to walk ratio. That's a guy who's going

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Speaker 1: to dominate in the Hey, look the FIP every year

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Speaker 1: three twenty three, h two, three twenty three. He's not

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Speaker 1: a fluke. You know, you look at these eras in

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Speaker 1: the low threes. That's Justin Steel and does not get

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Speaker 1: enough credit. Jack Flaherty coming in next at one thirty eight,

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Speaker 1: back in Detroit, somebody last year very controversial. I mean

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Speaker 1: every show when is Welsh gonna talk about Jack Flaherty's

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Speaker 1: regression And look, you know, Jack Flaherty turned in a

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Speaker 1: really good season and now he went back to Detroit,

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Speaker 1: which I gotta tell you if you had concerns about him,

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Speaker 1: I think maybe this would be something that would be

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Speaker 1: more positive. Right if you landed back in a new spot,

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Speaker 1: maybe you feel differently about Jack flaherty. But because he

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Speaker 1: went back to where all that success was basically regenerated

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Speaker 1: for him with Detroit and whoever those voices were inside

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Speaker 1: inside his head, very Randy Orton esque, whatever you want

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Speaker 1: to call it, I think that that's probably a big

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Speaker 1: positive for twenty twenty five. Does that assuage any fears

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Speaker 1: of a twenty twenty five Jack flaherty disappointment for you, Welsh, No, I.

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Speaker 3: Mean I love him going back there.

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Speaker 2: If anything, Yeah, like playoff innings like we saw what

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Speaker 2: happened with Zach Allen when you stacked up all those

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Speaker 2: innings that maybe you know, body wasn't ready for. He

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Speaker 2: had one hundred and forty four the year prior this

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Speaker 2: past year he put up one hundred and sixty two,

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Speaker 2: and then you had, you know, through the World Series,

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Speaker 2: So that could be something to monitor. But as a

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Speaker 2: Detroit Tiger, he had a three to one three era

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Speaker 2: and ninety five innings. Dude posted almost two hundred strikeouts

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Speaker 2: and one hundred and sixty four innings last year he was

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Speaker 2: sick three point one seven ERA expected was just like

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Speaker 2: a tiny bit higher, but I'm very excited about him

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Speaker 2: being in this spot. He posted thirty six percent WFT

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Speaker 2: rates on his two second most used pitches, thirty six

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Speaker 2: percent with rate on his slider, forty three percent on

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Speaker 2: his knuckle curve while putting up you know, a decent

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Speaker 2: fastball fastball by the way, the twenty eight point seven

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Speaker 2: percent K percentage, which like that's high for a fastball.

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Speaker 2: He's getting big strikeouts. He's in a spot where he

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Speaker 2: you know, lifted by Tarik Skooble, a solid young offense

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Speaker 2: in there. We've seen him kind of just step up

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Speaker 2: in his game to be a dominant strikeout pitcher that

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Speaker 2: has lower ERA numbers, which that's what gets me excited.

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Speaker 2: And the biggest one here were his role. Here were

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Speaker 2: his four rolling walk percentages from twenty twenty to twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty three nine point four percent, eight point one percent,

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Speaker 2: three thirteen point two percent, and ten point two This

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Speaker 2: past year five point two he became a high strikeout

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Speaker 2: low walk that equates to around almost twenty five K

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Speaker 2: minus walk percentage, which is like elite you give me

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Speaker 2: that again. You give me one hundred and seventy innings

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Speaker 2: on Flarity. Flarity is a deal, by the way, so

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Speaker 2: the undervalue tag to this one thirty eight on the

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Speaker 2: consensus ranks. He just still hasn't quite moved up. People

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Speaker 2: haven't caught up to him. I love Flarity. Flarity is

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Speaker 2: projected on the bat to have a ten point five

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Speaker 2: to nine k per nine, which is crazy for a

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Speaker 2: starting pitcher and a sub four era.

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Speaker 3: I think Jack Flaherty is a smash.

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Speaker 2: Pick for your like sp You can get him SP

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Speaker 2: four in.

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Speaker 3: A lot of instances. I really really love flair. This

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Speaker 3: is one.

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Speaker 2: I mean I did put him on here, so that's

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Speaker 2: why it was one of my favorites.

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Speaker 1: But I love Flarity as there was a time where

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Speaker 1: you were not believing in Jack Flary.

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Speaker 3: Well stuff like that. Yeah, I get it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, if you go back to the year before,

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Speaker 1: it was was ugly. You know, it's been ugly for

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Speaker 1: a while with Jack Flaherty. But good to see him

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Speaker 1: back on track. Smart move by the Tigers too, especially

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Speaker 1: if you think Schooble is going to be out of

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Speaker 1: your range sooner than later. Next guy on our list

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Speaker 1: at one thirty nine overall the adp Ryan Wo of

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Mariners. Now, Wo a guy that you know,

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Speaker 1: I think people forget that as a minor league pitcher.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about an elite level Caper nine guy. We're

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Speaker 1: talking about like in the twelves. This is a dude,

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Speaker 1: and there is a situation where if he's healthy and

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Speaker 1: he is consistent, he is going to fit right in.

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Speaker 1: If not, maybe even like start to join the conversation

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Speaker 1: of some of these other guys at the top of

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Speaker 1: that rotation out do I think he's as good as

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Speaker 1: Logan Gilbert. No, but could he be Bryce Miller Ish?

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Speaker 1: I think he ken like I think he's I think

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Speaker 1: he is right on that precipice. If he can take

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Speaker 1: some of that strikeout rate back in twenty twenty five

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Speaker 1: and get that number back up, that's the key for

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Speaker 1: him for that fantasy level we're looking at. But this

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Speaker 1: is a very good young pitcher regardless, and I think

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Speaker 1: somebody people should be very excited about. He's just twenty

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Speaker 1: five years old. There's a lot more here. Good size

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Speaker 1: six two two o five like, he's got a good frame.

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Speaker 1: He's got what you're looking for in terms of all

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Speaker 1: those other factors, and I think last year was sort

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Speaker 1: of the coming out party, and now I think a

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Speaker 1: tremendous value where you're looking to build out your rotation.

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Speaker 1: What do you think of WU win twenty.

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Speaker 2: Five, I like you said that's it was the coming

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Speaker 2: out party. He's had such crazy trajectory. I was at

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Speaker 2: his like, I think it was this pro debut in

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Speaker 2: rookie ball where he just flew through the season, then

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Speaker 2: went to the AFL, and then like halfway through the

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Speaker 2: next year he's in the majors.

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Speaker 3: It's crazy.

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Speaker 2: And then last year he puts up one hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty one innings with a two point eight nine ERA

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Speaker 2: totally built like a Seattle Mariners pitcher. It's low walks

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Speaker 2: like the lowest two point eight walk per nine is bonkers.

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Speaker 2: With a subra sub three ERA and an expected sub

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Speaker 2: three ERA. He generates weak contact across the board. His

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Speaker 2: problem is he just doesn't have a big strikeout thing

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Speaker 2: going on twenty one percent k percentage.

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Speaker 3: He uses a.

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Speaker 2: Whole bunch of pitches. None of them are big whiff

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Speaker 2: It's George Kirby like. And the thing is funny is

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Speaker 2: he doesn't like tinker because I talked to him in spring.

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Speaker 2: I've said this a million times, you know, talk to

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Speaker 2: him in spraying. He's like, I'm not adding a split finger.

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Speaker 2: He's just like he's his guy. It's low walk, it's

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Speaker 2: low contact against. If you generate that over let's say

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty innings this year, there's immense value

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Speaker 2: in it. And what I really like about him is

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Speaker 2: sometimes I get when you go into like high strikeout pitchers,

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Speaker 2: sometimes they have higher walk rates. You could all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden have some inflated whip. Brian Wu's got the

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Speaker 2: support of one of the best the best pitcher environment

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Speaker 2: in Seattle doesn't have enough run support right now.

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Speaker 3: But he's also low walk.

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Speaker 2: He's gonna help your whip. I think he's got the

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Speaker 2: chance to go deeper into games. And if he finds

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Speaker 2: home between his pitches. He threw his sinker and four

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Speaker 2: seam a combined over seventy percent usage, and then it's

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Speaker 2: like nine percent slider, change up, sweeper. My point is

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Speaker 2: if he finds a home for one of those pitches

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Speaker 2: to be a strikeout pitch and he increases his k percentage.

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Speaker 2: Now we're talking about him being not just like Walmart

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Speaker 2: or Walgreens, George Kirby, but he might just be George

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Speaker 2: Kirby light and he could really move up. But I

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Speaker 2: think there's a really nice baseline with Brian Wu. He

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Speaker 2: definitely is under He's a lot of target. He's a

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Speaker 2: target for a lot of people. But he's right around

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Speaker 2: the one fifty range. He is undervalued for what he

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Speaker 2: does to a team, and he's he's a target. He

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Speaker 2: definitely target.

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Speaker 1: If he's your number four starter in your rotation for fantasy,

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Speaker 1: how do you feel about that?

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Speaker 2: I think it's I love that if you paired it

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Speaker 2: with some high strikeout guys. So let's say you got

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Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, and then you waited and you

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Speaker 2: got Flaherty. There's a little bit of maybe walk concerned

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Speaker 2: with a guy like Blake Snell. There's huge strikeouts in there.

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Speaker 2: Brian Wu would be a huge complimentary.

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Speaker 1: Piece to that. Yeah, yeah, good point. Next guy in

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Speaker 1: our list also a strikeout and one fifty you say, Kakuchi,

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Speaker 1: who look, man? You know we got to give some

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Speaker 1: credit here to this guy. Going back twenty twenty two

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Speaker 1: with Toronto eleven k per nine twenty twenty three, nine

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Speaker 1: point seven two k per nine last year with two

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Speaker 1: teams ten point five to five. The strikeouts are there now.

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Speaker 1: Wins might be hard to come by for the Angels

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. But this was an intriguing signing

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Speaker 1: to me in the offseason because I was really curious

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Speaker 1: where he was going to land, mainly because when I

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Speaker 1: was doing the Black Book right up on him, the

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Speaker 1: ERA was at four h five, but the XCRA was

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Speaker 1: three seventy, the FIP was three forty six, the x

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Speaker 1: FIP was three twenty like all these other indicators like

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Speaker 1: Mankakuchi was really much better than the ERA even told you.

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Speaker 1: And you're getting big time strikeouts and you're getting big

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Speaker 1: time value. This is a player going right on the

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Speaker 1: precipice of one to fifty overall. And to me, you

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Speaker 1: could do a lot worse. Again, Yeah, chasing wins with him, no,

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Speaker 1: But are you chasing strikeouts and trying to beef up

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Speaker 1: towards the end late? I think the answer is yes.

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Speaker 1: Thirty three years old and a guy that I think

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Speaker 1: is you know, now established in the major leagues year

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Speaker 1: and one of these tough lefties, and sometimes those lefties

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Speaker 1: take a little bit longer to figure things out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the thing I really love is I think he

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Speaker 2: is one of we talked about like stats you can

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Speaker 2: get later or you can't get later. It is hard

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Speaker 2: in the hitter terms. It's hard to like pick up

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Speaker 2: average later. People used to be like, oh, you know,

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Speaker 2: you couldn't get stolen bases, so that's why you went high.

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Speaker 3: You now can.

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Speaker 2: Someone could argue it's hard to get like elite power

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Speaker 2: late in drafts when you go over to the pitching side.

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Speaker 2: I would argue to get like really good K potential

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Speaker 2: you have to like later in drafts, you're usually betting

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Speaker 2: on like prospects or rookies or someone to move, you know,

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Speaker 2: into a rotation spot that's not projected. Kakuchi is not

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Speaker 2: those things. Kakuchi's a guy that has solidified role inside

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Speaker 2: of a rotation. He has one hundred and sixty seven

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Speaker 2: innings over two straight years, and he's got an interesting

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Speaker 2: profile that he just had a career high K percentage

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Speaker 2: with a career low walk percentage, so it's like the

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Speaker 2: case went up and the walks actually went down. He's

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Speaker 2: got some worriesome like gives up some hard hit stuff.

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Speaker 2: He registered, you know, MAXIV of one nineteen nine percent

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Speaker 2: barrel is very very concerning. But all four pitches he

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Speaker 2: throws twenty five percent or higher K percentage. Every pitch

401
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Speaker 2: he throws is a potential strikeout pitch with a walk

402
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Speaker 2: rate that is declining. The era tells us something as well.

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Speaker 2: I think Kokuchi is just a really good piece to

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Speaker 2: add to your rotations. You're starting rotations and fantasy, especially

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Speaker 2: if you're maybe a tiny bit devoid of some strikeouts.

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Speaker 2: You've got some mid line guys you're like, hey, I

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Speaker 2: got Logan web over here. I took Brian wu. Let

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Speaker 2: Kokuchi boost up those strikeouts a little bit.

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Speaker 1: All right, these guys you should be adding to your

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Speaker 1: cheat sheets. And remember the chee Cheet Creator is available

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00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: all the rankings from all the different experts. Can take

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Speaker 1: Welsh myself, whoever you think is really good at doing

415
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Speaker 1: these rankings. Here, make Mike may Or maybe I guess

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Speaker 1: we could throw him in there. He's pretty good. Begrudgingly,

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Speaker 1: I'll give it to Mayor. Organized players into tears, add

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00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:06,879
Speaker 1: personal notes you could streamline all of that process for

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Speaker 1: you and automatically update the cheat sheet with the latest

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Speaker 1: expert consensus rankings to reflect the most current information. So

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00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: you go into your draft you are ready to kick

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00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,000
Speaker 1: ass and take names. Use the cheat sheet creator at

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00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:22,160
Speaker 1: fantasybros dot com slash cheat sheet, or again, just download

424
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,159
Speaker 1: draft Wizard app and use the cheat sheeet creator on

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00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 1: there too. Next guy on our list coming in at

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Speaker 1: one sixty seven overall consensus. ADP whould have thought that

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Speaker 1: the Mets would start to become the organization to turn

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Speaker 1: around reclamation project pitchers. They did it with Semarino last year,

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Speaker 1: and they also did it with Sean Menaya, who moved

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Speaker 1: to the extreme left side of the rubber and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden became Chris Sale. I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what happened there, but it was dude. The guy

433
00:19:48,480 --> 00:19:51,320
Speaker 1: was tremendous. Heap in the second half, had a four

434
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: to one strikeout to walk Ratio. I have seen shohel

435
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: Tani take very few uncomfortable at bats in the playoffs.

436
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,199
Speaker 1: He looked all kinds of befuddled against seaw Manaya. It

437
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 1: was it was fun to watch as a Mets fan.

438
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,720
Speaker 1: It was very entertaining. I saw shoe A Tony take

439
00:20:07,720 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 1: one of the worst wings I've ever seen him take

440
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,800
Speaker 1: against Shawl Manya, where he basically struck out and went, Okay,

441
00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go sit down. He could not pick up

442
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 1: the baseball. It was incredibly difficult. Now the big question

443
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 1: is the ADP is here for a reason because people

444
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,439
Speaker 1: are saying, okay, Ken, you do it again. To be

445
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,639
Speaker 1: honest with you, Welsh at this stage in the ADP,

446
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 1: at one sixty seven, I'm taking that risk there. I

447
00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:30,080
Speaker 1: absolutely think he can. This Mets team is going to

448
00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:32,760
Speaker 1: be good defensively, They're going to be good offensively. And

449
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,800
Speaker 1: I think at the same time, you're looking at Shan

450
00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 1: Manya being in a very comfortable situation where he's confident. Sure,

451
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:41,159
Speaker 1: the playoff innings, all the extra stuff, that's fine. But

452
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:44,200
Speaker 1: Manaia another guy that feels like he's just been around forever.

453
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:47,040
Speaker 1: He has bounced around everywhere, and that typically means it's

454
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,359
Speaker 1: a guy with talent. You're just waiting for somebody to

455
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,399
Speaker 1: crack the code, and it feels like last year it

456
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:51,959
Speaker 1: got cracked.

457
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 2: That's an interesting way to say it, that the code

458
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 2: was cracked. Part of that was because of a pitchment

459
00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:00,159
Speaker 2: mix change, and that's usually what it is. Some of

460
00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,520
Speaker 2: these guys just you know, refining to find that.

461
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 1: Performenta move to the other side of the rock, like

462
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 1: all these little things. And of course, as you're saying,

463
00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,719
Speaker 1: the pitch mix too, the combination of those three things.

464
00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 1: He wasn't good. He was elite.

465
00:21:13,040 --> 00:21:16,240
Speaker 2: Well, you know, arm angles really interesting on that you

466
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 2: can see on Baseball Savant. They had these arm angled charts.

467
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: In twenty three, he had like a twenty eight degree

468
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 2: launch angle, which was the second highest highest of his career.

469
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,120
Speaker 2: He dropped it down to the lowest of his career

470
00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: to twenty two.

471
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:28,640
Speaker 3: That's dramatic.

472
00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 2: I know that doesn't mean like a whole bunch of everybody,

473
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,400
Speaker 2: but like he dropped dramatically his arm even more kind

474
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 2: of a you know, coming from a side plane than

475
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:37,520
Speaker 2: he had ever done before.

476
00:21:37,840 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 3: He did that.

477
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: While changing his pitch mix from going primary four seam

478
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 2: fastball and change up the year prior, which accounted for

479
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,880
Speaker 2: over seventy percent of pitches thrown, to going primary sinker

480
00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 2: and then sweeper. He threw the sweeper almost twenty percent

481
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 2: of the time. That thing had a forty one percent

482
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 2: k percentage. It was devastating. So you know you're inducing

483
00:21:57,400 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: just like lower quality contact with a sinker, and you're

484
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:03,680
Speaker 2: setting that up with this big sweeping sweeper that had

485
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:06,679
Speaker 2: crazy strikeout percentages. And then you know he's still able

486
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,240
Speaker 2: to mix in. You've got that change up. He threw

487
00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,000
Speaker 2: eleven percent of the time the four team still kind

488
00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 2: of keeping guys honest, and that change up sweeper combination,

489
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,000
Speaker 2: that was the fix. He just the arm angle equated

490
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 2: to the and he lowered the velocity by the way

491
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 2: of the sweeper. It just became his big devastating pitch.

492
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:25,080
Speaker 2: It's the pitch du joor or two years ago as

493
00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 2: a sweeper. This past year it was a splitter, but

494
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 2: it's worked for him. He found the combination. I do

495
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 2: think he is undervalued. He's not exactly my biggest target

496
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:34,119
Speaker 2: on the planet. But you know what, he's going to

497
00:22:34,160 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: get innings with an offense of Soto and Lindor leading

498
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,480
Speaker 2: the way. He had an an expected era that's supported.

499
00:22:40,560 --> 00:22:43,320
Speaker 2: It was still under four and he's got a big,

500
00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:45,760
Speaker 2: massive strikeout pitch. It's kind of hard to argue. The

501
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 2: other thing I really liked he was first to second

502
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 2: half almost the same pitcher around a three point four

503
00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 2: era on both sides, so he was consistent throughout the year.

504
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,080
Speaker 2: So I think this pitch mix really works for him.

505
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 2: It's enabling him to be a higher strikeout guy twenty

506
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 2: essentially twenty five percent. I just love for him to

507
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: walk a little bit less. But he's making it work

508
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 2: and you're getting into free range. It's kind of hard,

509
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 2: Like I know, people are like always arguing about everything

510
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: anybody does, like.

511
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 3: This is you do. This guy's undervalued, but.

512
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 2: It's like outside the one fifty, Like I really don't

513
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 2: know how anybody makes arguments that these guys aren't value.

514
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:17,919
Speaker 1: He was my number four than than Brian Wu in

515
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:18,439
Speaker 1: my rotation.

516
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 2: If you're gonna unless you think they're gonna can blow

517
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 2: up and completely regress, Like I don't see.

518
00:23:22,760 --> 00:23:24,439
Speaker 1: The innings total is a big one Welsh, right. The

519
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 1: innings total is the thing where you look at and

520
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: you go, oh, innings one eighty something and then on

521
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 1: you know that's a high and then long the jump

522
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 1: from year to year, yeah, the jump too. But he

523
00:23:33,280 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: is an older picture. He's not a slight guy. Like

524
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: I just I feel like it's I feel like it's sustainable,

525
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: and I feel like mentally too, to come back where

526
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: he had so much success, kind of like Flawerty that

527
00:23:41,800 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 1: conversation when somebody gets you on track, the confidence, when

528
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:48,560
Speaker 1: you take them out, it just oozes and and that's

529
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,639
Speaker 1: why he like, I have a morbid Frankie Mantas curiosity

530
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 1: based on Severino in Manaya, because it's not like Montos

531
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: at times when he was healthy, wasn't a good picture

532
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,119
Speaker 1: in the major leagues. When he was with the athletics,

533
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 1: he was a good picture for a while there, and

534
00:24:01,880 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: then injuries obviously derailed that, but we'll see again. I

535
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,440
Speaker 1: want to emphasize the word morbid curiosity. Brandon fought at

536
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 1: one eighty. Friend of this channel too. We've been very

537
00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 1: into Brandon fought for a long time, and I think

538
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: it's just completely unfair. I think this ADP is absurd.

539
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: A guy who's gonna get you, you know, k per

540
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 1: nine nine, k per nine in that range, right, he's

541
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 1: gonna give you a strikeout in inning he had a

542
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,960
Speaker 1: four to seven one ERA, but that's not the story.

543
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: His XCRA was a full run lower. His fit was

544
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: three sixty one is x fit is three fifty eight.

545
00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: If you tack on let's say a three six one

546
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: ERA to Brandon Fott, there's no way he's at this ADP.

547
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 1: I think this is just lazy fantasy and lazy drafting.

548
00:24:44,440 --> 00:24:46,000
Speaker 1: And Brandon Fott is a guy that I'm gonna have

549
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: a lot of shares of. Oh wait oh when he's

550
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,480
Speaker 1: on an offense scores a crap ton of runs. Yeah, yeah,

551
00:24:50,480 --> 00:24:52,320
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Brandon fought well.

552
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: I think the biggest negative though, is your people are

553
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,960
Speaker 2: looking at how the season ended and it kind of

554
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: fell apart. He had a three nine seven ERA in

555
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: the first half, but Joe five point nine to three

556
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,240
Speaker 2: in the second half. That was a two run jump.

557
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 2: His final two months of the season he had a

558
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 2: six and a seven ERA, and people are just losing

559
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: their minds about it.

560
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: The argument I.

561
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 2: Would have is, like career high, he went from ninety

562
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,040
Speaker 2: six innings to one hundred and eighty one this past year.

563
00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 2: The expected array is a full run higher. I also

564
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: think from just like a pitch standpoint, he's he's actually

565
00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:24,879
Speaker 2: kind of like Manaiya. It's like you've got this like

566
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 2: fastball sinker situation that is put with one of the

567
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 2: best sweepers in baseball. It's an elitd sweeper. It's an

568
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,840
Speaker 2: elite strikeout pitch. It generated a thirty five percent k percentage.

569
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 2: His problem is been Homer's and he can't get out

570
00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 2: like he has like a one point five whip against

571
00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 2: lefties and a sub one whip against righty. So, you know,

572
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,160
Speaker 2: I would assume that might be maybe a pitching coat.

573
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: That's why Brett Stawm was fired also, as they you know,

574
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,399
Speaker 2: they moved him on the rubber a little bit, but

575
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,360
Speaker 2: maybe it's just a little bit more of a change

576
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 2: up to, you know, be a little bit more baddly

577
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,679
Speaker 2: against left handed hitters. But you know he's working on

578
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,800
Speaker 2: that fastball becoming a little bit better. But again it

579
00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 2: is the best, one of the best sweepers in all

580
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:05,160
Speaker 2: of baseball. Expected numbers are on his side. Year over year,

581
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,880
Speaker 2: he did lower quality of contact against hard hit percentage

582
00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,920
Speaker 2: went down under forty percent. Barrel went from eleven the

583
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,280
Speaker 2: year prior down to eight. He's a young pitcher that's

584
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,159
Speaker 2: making moves. He was phenomenal in the first half. I

585
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: think the strikeout potential could pop up. He was around

586
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,399
Speaker 2: twenty four percent and by the way, even in his

587
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 2: struggles with the fastball and the Homers five percent walk grate.

588
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,160
Speaker 2: That's great, you're almost a twenty percent K minus walk

589
00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 2: percentage guy. I clearly I'm a stupid Homer. With Brandon Fott,

590
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 2: I've watched him for years and the miners, I think

591
00:26:33,520 --> 00:26:35,720
Speaker 2: this guy can be an elite pitcher. And we have

592
00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 2: seen some massive adjustments he has made since he's been

593
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 2: up in the majors, and people are kind of crying about, Oh,

594
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 2: it's gonna be this. It's like, no, man, the sweeper's

595
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,640
Speaker 2: gotten better. He's throwing more than two pitches. They've moved

596
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: him on the rubber. I think you're going to see

597
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 2: another big jump. Expected stats are kind of telling that story.

598
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: And if the Homers drop at all, Brandon Fott is

599
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 2: going to blow past this. And again, this is outside

600
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 2: the one fifty seam and I and Brandon Fott are

601
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 2: two great like sp or six or something you could

602
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 2: throw into your fantasy rotations that have got a ton

603
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 2: of upside.

604
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 1: Look, he jumped from ninety six things to one hundred

605
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:09,679
Speaker 1: and eighty. I think it was just fatigue. He had

606
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: never crossed a hundre manjor league getings before he's twenty

607
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: five years old. I am not concerned. I am not worried.

608
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: He's alwa he's sweating. If you ever watch him, he's

609
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 3: always just read when he's swatened.

610
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 1: He just I said, I think you can attribute it

611
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,000
Speaker 1: to fatigue and hitting the wall and just like trying

612
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: mentally and physically to get past that. That out of

613
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 1: the way. Now, all the other numbers are really good.

614
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: I'm in on Brandon Fopp. You can't get me off

615
00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 1: the Brandon Fop. I don't care what the finish was.

616
00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:34,960
Speaker 1: I think it was just a hit in the wall scenario.

617
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 1: So now I want him next guy those at one

618
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 1: ninety one. I don't remember putting this guy in. Is

619
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: this a guy that Welsh replaced here? Last?

620
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 3: This is a Welsh replacement guy.

621
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: I did not put him in, So I am not

622
00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 1: going to speak to him. Zach Efflin one ninety one,

623
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 1: So all right own this for the people Welsh. Give

624
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: him the low down on ef Flin.

625
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 2: All right, well, if you like Brian wu, let me

626
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:57,399
Speaker 2: present Zach Eflin to you. At one ninety one, he

627
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,320
Speaker 2: had a three to five nine ERA and expected three

628
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: six seven ERA.

629
00:28:01,720 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 3: He had a nineteen percent k percentage. What sucks.

630
00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 2: That's not good, but he paired it with a three

631
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 2: point five walk percentage. It's like two percent off of

632
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 2: the strikeout rate of Brian Wu and one percent higher

633
00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 2: walk rate. It's one of the elite walks walk rates

634
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 2: out there. Quality of contact, we need a little bit

635
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: more improvement on, like Brian Wu has that, and that's

636
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 2: why WU is costing more. But if you're looking for

637
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:25,600
Speaker 2: like a mid era guy on a we're talking about Baltimore.

638
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 2: We started the show with Grayson Rodriguez. You've got win potential.

639
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 2: You got a guy that's gone one sixty five at

640
00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,960
Speaker 2: least in two straight seasons, so he can eat some innings.

641
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 2: He's really low walk you're gonna have low whip, good era.

642
00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:40,680
Speaker 2: You're just not gonna have a big stance. As far

643
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 2: as like strikeouts go, I like, I like the repertoire.

644
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 2: Maybe there's some strikeout potential, but again I think there's

645
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,880
Speaker 2: just solid run support for a guy that can eat

646
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 2: innings and is not going to just blow up your team.

647
00:28:52,600 --> 00:28:54,920
Speaker 3: So you're talking about not all.

648
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: Underrated pitchers have to be these big, flashy, explosive strikeout guys.

649
00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 2: We love that, but sometimes we also need to mark

650
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: this is a guy that's not gonna hurt my whip.

651
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,440
Speaker 3: He's gonna eat innings. He's got win.

652
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 2: Potential with his team, and that is a value. And

653
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 2: at almost two hundred, Zach Efflin's a value. So that's

654
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:15,320
Speaker 2: why we had to throw him in here. He can

655
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:17,840
Speaker 2: be a little bit boring, but a three five VRA

656
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 2: guy going around two hundred on Baltimore that's gonna get

657
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,959
Speaker 2: probably projected around one hundred and eighty innings, that's undervalued.

658
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 1: All right. You know who's not boring going outside the

659
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: top two hundred, A six foot six tall drink of

660
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,479
Speaker 1: water in Cincinnati, who throws hard, he's left handed. It's

661
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: Nicoladolo on buying back in. He wasn't good in the

662
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,480
Speaker 1: minor leagues. He was dominant in the minor leagues. Okay,

663
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 1: five minor league seasons, roughly ninety six innings pitched over them.

664
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: So again the smaller sample size, but we're talking about

665
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: domination here. We're talking about a two seventy era. We're

666
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:52,480
Speaker 1: talking about a strikeout rate of thirteen point nine, a

667
00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 1: walk rate of two walks per nine. Like, this is

668
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,440
Speaker 1: a guy that you know, I understand health has been troubling.

669
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:02,720
Speaker 1: I understand the eras have been high. I understand, you know,

670
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 1: all the things that have gone wrong with Nick Lodolo,

671
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: But you could also look at the director of Hunter

672
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 1: Green and say, okay, well, last year Hunter Green really

673
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 1: started to put it together. And Lodolo and Green are

674
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 1: two very special arm talents. If they can learn about

675
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: pitching right at the major league level, this is a

676
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: guy that could really take off in twenty twenty five.

677
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: And I'm looking at Lodolo as one of these guys

678
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,400
Speaker 1: I'm drafting as a bench pitcher that has the ability

679
00:30:25,440 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 1: to basically end up being like a number three fantasy

680
00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 1: starter if things break right, and if they don't, it

681
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 1: doesn't cost me a lot to find out. I think

682
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: to have that sort of upside make some very undervalued

683
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: outside of top two hundred. And I like this Reds

684
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: team in twenty five.

685
00:30:38,520 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 2: Okay, so this is an interesting one where I had Efflund.

686
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,440
Speaker 2: I almost took this off and I was gonna place

687
00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 2: with Chris Sanchez. Really love the value of Chris Sanchez,

688
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 2: even though it's coming up with the strikeout potentially, I

689
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 2: like him too, But I left this also to get

690
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 2: your take on it. And to say that, like I

691
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,720
Speaker 2: have had obsessions with Nick Lodolo for years. I've did

692
00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 2: a couple of years ago doing the you know, every

693
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 2: other week. It was like, hey, listen, you want to

694
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 2: trade for somebody got a trade for Lodolo. It's the

695
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 2: injuries that keep me off. The guy hasn't gone over

696
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,040
Speaker 2: one hundred and fifteen innings over the last three years.

697
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:09,880
Speaker 3: But if he does stay healthy.

698
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 2: Back to your point, he had expected era that was

699
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: a full run lower this past year than his actual era.

700
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 2: He has got one of the nastiest curve balls. It's ridiculous.

701
00:31:21,080 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 2: It just the top to bottom drop. It's a huge

702
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 2: strikeout pitch that he sets up with a fastball, which,

703
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:27,960
Speaker 2: by the way, a fastball that was better year over

704
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: year was a full mile per hour faster, went from

705
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: ninety three point two up to ninety four point one.

706
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 2: And he's got a change up in there that had

707
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 2: a twenty five percent with rate. I think that changeup

708
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 2: needs to get a little bit better and then he's

709
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 2: going to be able to establish himself as like more

710
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: of a threat because the walks are still a little

711
00:31:43,960 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 2: bit high, and I think he's a guy that should

712
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 2: run higher. K percentage. He had twenty eight percent two

713
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: years ago. It was down to twenty four percent this

714
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,680
Speaker 2: past year. If he can stay healthy, I do think

715
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 2: he has the makings of being kind of like a

716
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,000
Speaker 2: Maybe the designation would be more sleeper, but I will

717
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:02,240
Speaker 2: I'll give you this from the underrated standpoint.

718
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 3: Is what you said. If he breaks right.

719
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,000
Speaker 2: Things could be big and he is undervalued. And if

720
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,200
Speaker 2: he doesn't, we're now in arrange for this picture. In

721
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,959
Speaker 2: the next one outside the top two hundred, you can

722
00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 2: get into a streaming battle and you can just start

723
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:17,320
Speaker 2: streaming pictures if it doesn't work out. So where this

724
00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 2: isn't necessarily my big pick. I do buy exactly what

725
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 2: you're selling. I think I just have like serious worries

726
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 2: about the injury. This dude cannot stay healthy. I don't

727
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:28,840
Speaker 2: know what it's going to take. I'm not sure the

728
00:32:28,880 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 2: Reds have this big, great track record of pitchure health.

729
00:32:31,760 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess Hunter Green has turned it around,

730
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: but Lodolo hasn't been able to stay out. So it's

731
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:37,560
Speaker 2: kind of a proved me type of thing.

732
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: To your point, Sanchez A safer why I agree one

733
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 1: hundred percent? Just looking for safety. Sanchez A. Safer. I

734
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,560
Speaker 1: also think just as an asset, Lodolo is fascinating because

735
00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:47,720
Speaker 1: if he looks really good coming out of spring right

736
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: and he's blowing guys away in April and May, I

737
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 1: think you could trade him for a boltload because of

738
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:54,480
Speaker 1: the innings issue you're talking about, then might creep up

739
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 1: later in the season. So I think he's like an

740
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 1: asset more than anything. When I'm talking about like I

741
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: want to have ass I want to have talent on

742
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 1: my roster to try and make the moves when I

743
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:04,240
Speaker 1: need to make the moves and get the best of

744
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: the upside of a player. Last Bininarialist, a guy that

745
00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 1: has teased greatness before. Another left handed starter, now finds

746
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 1: himself on the Philadelphia Phillies at two thirty three. Hazus

747
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: Lozardo a guy that has been argued on this show

748
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 1: by many an analyst for many, many years and has

749
00:33:20,320 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: been around for a while. He's had some health issues,

750
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,920
Speaker 1: some performance issues, and then some peak. Right now he's

751
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: going from Miami to Philadelphia. You can't ask for a

752
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: better jump. Do you see Lizardo as a guy that

753
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 1: you want to take a shot to buy back in

754
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: on In twenty twenty five because it feels like going

755
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 1: outside the top two hundred for a guy who not

756
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: that long ago was looking like a dominant guy on

757
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: the rise now is a starting pitcher that feels almost forgotten.

758
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think the big thing I did this

759
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:51,240
Speaker 2: show on this league of talking sleepers, and Frank Stanfele

760
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: had targeted Hazus Lozardo is a sleeper of his. And

761
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,520
Speaker 2: I think it's really interesting because there are some guys

762
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: I've just taken this token with where you look at

763
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 2: a player, you're just like they were really bad and

764
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 2: nothing tells the story from last year.

765
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:05,400
Speaker 3: But sometimes that's the anomaly.

766
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 2: Boba Schett and his example of that on the offensive side,

767
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:09,440
Speaker 2: Like you look and it's just like it was so

768
00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: bad last year that it's like that feels more of

769
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:14,279
Speaker 2: the anomaly to than the career. And you could be wrong.

770
00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 2: Lozardo's kind of the same thing because last year only

771
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: sixty six innings, tons of injuries, a five era, absolutely

772
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 2: inflated hard contact through the roof, he lost a mile

773
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:26,799
Speaker 2: per hour over about a mile and a half per

774
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 2: hour on his fastball. All of those things are not great,

775
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 2: and it didn't generate any whiffs but that is more

776
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 2: than the anomaly than anything, because the years prior three

777
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,040
Speaker 2: point three to two and one hundred innings three point

778
00:34:38,040 --> 00:34:41,200
Speaker 2: five eight ERA tons of strikeouts. He had two hundred

779
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:43,600
Speaker 2: and eight strikeouts just a year prior to that, with

780
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 2: lower whip numbers twenty eight percent K percentage in twenty three,

781
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 2: twenty one this past year, lower walk rate three point

782
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,160
Speaker 2: five expected actual ERA the year prior. So you look

783
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 2: at all of that and you go man health was

784
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: a huge problem with him last year. He has shown

785
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 2: bigger fastball, bigger strikes out, and now he's going to

786
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: go to a much better team, much better environment. So

787
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:06,520
Speaker 2: if he's healthy and you got the run support in

788
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 2: Philly with that strike up potential. Also pointing out I

789
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,799
Speaker 2: said Chris Sanchez, I think they are doing great things

790
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 2: with their pitchers. We might be able to kind of

791
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:16,839
Speaker 2: refig oh Sanchez is working on a new fourth pitch here.

792
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: They thought Wheeler to that level that we were always

793
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 1: told Wheeler was, but as you know, when you watch

794
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 1: a bit for the Mets, you never saw you would

795
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: see him do that for a start or two, but

796
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,160
Speaker 1: never consistently. And Wheeler's become one of the best pitchers

797
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: in baseball.

798
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 2: But also like Ranger Suarez had, this really.

799
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 1: Is another grade.

800
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 3: Chris Sanna a great job.

801
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:35,080
Speaker 1: Too bad they can't get a bullpen straight to save

802
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: their life over there, But you know they they certainly

803
00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:41,000
Speaker 1: look a tough ballpark in terms of home runs. Sure,

804
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: but you know, going to the point you're making too

805
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,400
Speaker 1: about taking a flyer and a guy like Lizardo who

806
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 1: has a strikeout rate. Let's also not forget that he

807
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:50,640
Speaker 1: is just twenty seven years old. We are kind of spoiled.

808
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: He's been around so long because he was such a

809
00:35:52,640 --> 00:35:55,240
Speaker 1: big hyped prospect that I think there's a little Lizardo

810
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 1: fatigue in the fantasy baseball space. Would you think that

811
00:35:57,920 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 1: that's irrelevant?

812
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: Well, I just think people are just done, like they're overright,

813
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 2: the like fatigue.

814
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 1: Is twenty seven? Is it time to give up on

815
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:05,520
Speaker 1: him at twenty seven?

816
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:08,839
Speaker 2: Well, and to be fair, like again, twenty twenty three

817
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:10,040
Speaker 2: wasn't that bad of a season.

818
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 3: I think there's some fixes in there.

819
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 2: You can see he had the highest arm angle of

820
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:16,160
Speaker 2: his career this past season when their struggles. Maybe that

821
00:36:16,239 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 2: speaks to the injury and how he was able to

822
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 2: throw get that arm back down a little bit that

823
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:21,000
Speaker 2: you're healthy.

824
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 3: How about and go.

825
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 2: And pitch with one of the best change ups in

826
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 2: baseball and Chris Sanchez, and you can learn that this

827
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 2: guy throws at twenty percent of the time. I think

828
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: there's a lot of trajectory things that are working in

829
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,439
Speaker 2: favor of Lozardo and if you want to just look

830
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 2: at more of a bigger window than just last year.

831
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think the track record speaks for

832
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 2: itself that he legitimately could be a twenty eight percent

833
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 2: k guy, lower walks better era and now he's got

834
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:44,480
Speaker 2: a better support system around him and better offense. And

835
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:48,279
Speaker 2: most importantly, he's undervalued because he's free two thirty three

836
00:36:48,719 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 2: overall out it's almost the end of your draft. Lozarda

837
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,359
Speaker 2: is just a great value pick that really could hit,

838
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 2: and that's why we targeted him as one of the

839
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:57,240
Speaker 2: undervalued pitchers.

840
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 1: Grayson Rodriguez, Justin Steele, Jack Flaherty, Brian woo Youse, Kakucie Shuman,

841
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:04,920
Speaker 1: and Iyah Brandon Fought, Zach Eflin, Nicko Lodolo, and Hazus Lozardo.

842
00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 1: Those are the names on our list, But who's on

843
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 1: your list? Drop your comments below Your most undervalued, underappreciated

844
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 1: ADP pitchers in the twenty twenty five Fantasy Baseball Draft season.

845
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 1: We love to hear from you on the YouTube channel.

846
00:37:18,320 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below, Subscribe to the channel and ring

847
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 1: the bell today goes ding for notifications and download Draft

848
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: Wizard and start getting your mock on. That'll do it

849
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 1: for us, but the story of the game goes on

850
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 1: for the whole shome. Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

851
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,759
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

852
00:37:35,000 --> 00:37:37,680
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853
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855
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856
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,280
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