WEBVTT - Brexit, Morgan Stanley, & Trump Under Fire

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you,

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<v Speaker 1>along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day

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<v Speaker 1>we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for

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<v Speaker 1>you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or

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<v Speaker 1>the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple

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<v Speaker 1>podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg dot com. Let's talk Brexit. Let's get some

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<v Speaker 1>opinions on it, because I can't figure out for the

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<v Speaker 1>life of me if we're really actually close to an

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<v Speaker 1>agreement or whether we're still miles away. Terre's Raphael is

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<v Speaker 1>going to clear it all up for us. She's a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg opinion editor in London. So Terre's are we going

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<v Speaker 1>to get a Brexit deal or is this sort of

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<v Speaker 1>more uh, sort of tenuous negotiating that's gonna get shut

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<v Speaker 1>down on both sides. Well, there's one final bridge to cross, um,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's maybe the wobbliest and most difficult bridge to

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<v Speaker 1>get cross across. Maybe that's the way to put it. So,

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<v Speaker 1>there is a deal that has been agreed between the UK,

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<v Speaker 1>the European Union. Ireland crucially has signed off on that,

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<v Speaker 1>and that is a huge accomplishment because it looked, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, only say twenty four hours ago, like that

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't happen the you know, giant capital letter. But here

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<v Speaker 1>is the Democratic Union's Party of Northern Ireland, a key

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<v Speaker 1>ally for the Conservative government. UH, is absolutely opposed to

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<v Speaker 1>the deal, has said they will not vote for it.

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<v Speaker 1>And the question is whether Boris Johnson can gather enough

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<v Speaker 1>votes in the House of Commons from his own party

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<v Speaker 1>and other parties to make up the numbers that he needs.

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<v Speaker 1>So Terre's I know you wrote a column on this,

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<v Speaker 1>This the Northern Ireland issue, um, and that is continues

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<v Speaker 1>to be a major UH stumbling block here. Historically the

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<v Speaker 1>DUP has been able to block such a deal. What

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<v Speaker 1>is the sense right now, given maybe where the parties

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<v Speaker 1>are just that in terms of exhaustion, so normally a

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<v Speaker 1>no means no from the d u P. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that Johnson probably is hoping, um, that there's some chance

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<v Speaker 1>they'll change their mind if, for example, he has enough

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<v Speaker 1>votes in the Common The reason is this, he's offered

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<v Speaker 1>the DUP reportedly quite a large sum of money to

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<v Speaker 1>go along, and this is a DUPS moment of maximum

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<v Speaker 1>leverage if they uh, if they say no and the

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<v Speaker 1>deal doesn't go through the Commons, then they're going to

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<v Speaker 1>get a share of the blame for that. And we

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<v Speaker 1>don't know how that would play out in a future election.

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<v Speaker 1>The DUP may find that it gets hurt. If they

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<v Speaker 1>say no and the deal does pass, the DUP may

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<v Speaker 1>have given up an opportunity to uh, you know, to

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<v Speaker 1>to to gain some benefits out of it, whether monetarily

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<v Speaker 1>or in terms of you know, future influence. So the

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<v Speaker 1>DP has to think very hard about whether it's going

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<v Speaker 1>to stick by by the position. And then the key

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<v Speaker 1>question is whether their allies and the Conservative Party, which

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<v Speaker 1>are now known as the Spartans, those that refuse Theresa

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<v Speaker 1>May's deal three times before on the grounds that it

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<v Speaker 1>hurt the Union in its cause among other among other things,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they will stick by the DUP or instead decide

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<v Speaker 1>to back Boris Johnson's deal. And I think once we

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<v Speaker 1>know that it will be easier to say whether this

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<v Speaker 1>deal has a chance on Saturday. Meanwhile, of course, the

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<v Speaker 1>Labor Party, by Jeremy Corbyn is well is expected to

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<v Speaker 1>throw a spanner in the works. It's already declared the

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<v Speaker 1>deal worse than Tersa May's deal, so it's not clear

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<v Speaker 1>it gets through the House of Commons. I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>got a better chance than May had um, but but

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<v Speaker 1>that may not be saying enough a better chance than

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<v Speaker 1>May's head. What does this deal have that is so

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<v Speaker 1>much better in terms of being more conciliatory to all

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<v Speaker 1>sides than Theresa May? Right? Okay, the main difference is

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<v Speaker 1>that Teresa's May's Teresa May's deal included what was known

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<v Speaker 1>as the Irish Backstop, which was a sort of insurance policy,

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<v Speaker 1>but it locked the UK into the US Customs Union

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<v Speaker 1>indefinitely if other solutions weren't found to take it out. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>that was completely UH, anathema to the d U, P

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<v Speaker 1>to UH, to conservatives, even too many in the Labor

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<v Speaker 1>Party because it tied the UK for you know, UH

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<v Speaker 1>an indefinite period of time to EU rules. This deal

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<v Speaker 1>gets rid of that. Instead, it aligns UK goods with

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<v Speaker 1>the EU um UH for regulatory purposes. But it also

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<v Speaker 1>has this sort of innovation on customs where the goods

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<v Speaker 1>that are destined for the UK would pay UK customs.

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<v Speaker 1>Goods that might go to the EU through Northern Ireland

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<v Speaker 1>would pay EU customs and there'd be a sort of

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<v Speaker 1>committee that decides which are at risk of going to

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<v Speaker 1>Northern of going through to the EU. So it's complicated,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a bit messy, it's kind of even hard to explain.

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<v Speaker 1>But crucially what it does is it gets rid of

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<v Speaker 1>the backstop and that was what Boris Johnson promised and

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<v Speaker 1>that's what gives it this acceptability for Conservatives. It also

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<v Speaker 1>has a consent mechanism so that the Northern Ireland parties

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<v Speaker 1>can themselves approve it periodically every four years. Torre's just

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<v Speaker 1>about twenty seconds. Can you can just give us a

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<v Speaker 1>sense what's going to happen Saturday, what's supposed to happen,

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<v Speaker 1>what's scheduled to happen. I'll give it to you in

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<v Speaker 1>five seconds. It's going to be a vote, okay, and

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<v Speaker 1>beyond that, and beyond that, I can't tell you whether

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna pass. All right, So we're gonna pay attention

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<v Speaker 1>to that vote Saturday, and we'll hopefully we'll have some

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<v Speaker 1>more clarity the next time we speak to you, which

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<v Speaker 1>will probably be next week. Tres Raphael, thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us. Trays is a Bloomberg Opinion editor. Covering

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<v Speaker 1>European politics and economics, especially Brexit. She is the go

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<v Speaker 1>to voice. She does that from our London bureau. You

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<v Speaker 1>can read more on this and other stories from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Opinion at Bloomberg dot com, slash Opinion and on the

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<v Speaker 1>terminal by typing an O, P, I N go. Well

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<v Speaker 1>are good friends at Morgan Stanley reported earnings better than

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<v Speaker 1>expected earnings is trading up about three points seven percent today.

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<v Speaker 1>To get the latest on Morgan Stanley and all the

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<v Speaker 1>big investment banks that have reported this week, we welcome

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<v Speaker 1>Alison Williams. She's a senior annalysts covering global investment banks

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<v Speaker 1>and asset managers for Bloomberg Intelligence. She joins us on

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<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg and Actor Broker studio. So, Alison, um Morgan

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<v Speaker 1>Stanley kind of bringing up the rear for the big

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<v Speaker 1>investment banks this week. What are the key takeaways for you?

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<v Speaker 1>So for Morgan Stanley, Uh, you know, strong quarter at

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<v Speaker 1>least versus the expectation sort of across trading and fees.

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<v Speaker 1>I think importantly that their wealth margin um is running

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<v Speaker 1>at the higher end and and the bottom line is

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<v Speaker 1>really that they are well within their range to make

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<v Speaker 1>their target for the year, and I think that's sort

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<v Speaker 1>of the kind of takeaway as we're exiting the quarter,

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<v Speaker 1>who who's sort of on track to meet their targets

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<v Speaker 1>and in a good position for next year, and who's not?

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<v Speaker 1>And so Morgan Stanley falls into the positive bucket JP

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan also their Bank America showing really positive trends UH yesterday. However,

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<v Speaker 1>a city group, I think it's going to be a

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<v Speaker 1>closer call. They basically said they're going to do everything

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<v Speaker 1>they can to make that twelve percent return on tangible

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<v Speaker 1>equity target common equity target UM next year. My guess

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<v Speaker 1>is they're going to have to lower UH their target

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<v Speaker 1>for next year, and then Goldman that doesn't really manage

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<v Speaker 1>to a target, at least not now. We'll probably hear

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<v Speaker 1>more from them on specific targets next year. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think UM it was a combination of costs coming in

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<v Speaker 1>higher than expected, as well as disappointing banking fees. So

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<v Speaker 1>I wanna talk about debt trading revenues because I like

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<v Speaker 1>talking about them, but also with Morgan Stanley that really

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<v Speaker 1>was the front and center. Their beat was really remarkable. UH.

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<v Speaker 1>Debt trading revenues surging twenty one percent in set of

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<v Speaker 1>dropping five percent is analysts had predicted. Do we have

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<v Speaker 1>a sense of what drove that? So there were a

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<v Speaker 1>few things that they talked about. Basically, credit trading was

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<v Speaker 1>strong for them, UM as and rates was a little weaker.

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<v Speaker 1>That was similar to comments that they had made in September.

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<v Speaker 1>The commodities business US was also good for both UM

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan Stanley angle up in this quarter. Think about what

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<v Speaker 1>was happening UM with energy prices, but UM Morgan Stanley's business,

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<v Speaker 1>which we haven't talked about in a while, and commodities

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<v Speaker 1>can be lumpy, so that may have been part of it.

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<v Speaker 1>But JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley both having really strong

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<v Speaker 1>quarters on the front, on the thick front. People right

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<v Speaker 1>on the thick front. I'm wondering how much of this

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<v Speaker 1>is taking business away from Deutsche Bank, and that's what

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing. So there we're hearing less I think specifics

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of thick where they're gaining shared and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's really gonna be the number to watch next week.

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<v Speaker 1>We definitely are hearing about market share gains in prime,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're specifically calling it that or not. Prime brokerage

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<v Speaker 1>meaning the business catering to hedge funds. Correct, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is a business where um, you know, Deutsche Bank sort

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<v Speaker 1>of never recovered coming out of sort of their their

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<v Speaker 1>legal concerns of that businesses sort of continued to slip away.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a business that they, um have stepped off of.

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<v Speaker 1>We the Bloomberg News reporters have been talking about different

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<v Speaker 1>market share wins UM from the banks that we heard

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<v Speaker 1>from the banks themselves. You know, Bank America talking about

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<v Speaker 1>higher balances, Goldman talking about higher balances, and Morgan Stanley

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps the most specific talking about higher prime balances UM

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<v Speaker 1>and wins from Europe. So alson. You know, having listened

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<v Speaker 1>to the conference calls this week, I WHI I know

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<v Speaker 1>you have. For the big investment banks, what are they

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<v Speaker 1>saying about the regulatory outlooks? And then there's been some

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<v Speaker 1>talk about rolling back some of the regulations that were

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<v Speaker 1>put upon the financial services industry after the financial crisis.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the status of that. The one regulation that I

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<v Speaker 1>think bank confessors are most focused on, we're most focused

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<v Speaker 1>on at least is um you know, the final capital rules,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's two rules right now they're sort of in progress.

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<v Speaker 1>One relates to one capital measure and one relates to

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<v Speaker 1>the other UM. One's gonna make things tougher and one's

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<v Speaker 1>gonna make things easier. But the net net UM things

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<v Speaker 1>could be tougher for Morgan, Stanley and Goldman because they're

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<v Speaker 1>basically tailored to UM, sort of charging them more for

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<v Speaker 1>certain related investment banking businesses. And so I think that's

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<v Speaker 1>the key that that people are watching. However, we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>in the last couple of stress tests and capital returns

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<v Speaker 1>the banks sort of being a little bit more conservatives

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<v Speaker 1>as we sort of wait those final rules. There were

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<v Speaker 1>UM questions sort of throughout the calls on the political landscape,

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<v Speaker 1>different things that have been going on. I think managements

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<v Speaker 1>generally we're trying to change the subject and and not

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<v Speaker 1>kind of go down that path shocking, I will say,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, honestly, they don't want to answer these questions

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<v Speaker 1>because how can they possibly have a lens out. I

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<v Speaker 1>am curious though, just at a larger level, how much

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<v Speaker 1>are US banks just absolutely trouncing the European and other

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<v Speaker 1>global peers at this point. So to your point, we've

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<v Speaker 1>seen that UM in the numbers, We've seen it in

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<v Speaker 1>the trading numbers and we've seen it in the fee

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<v Speaker 1>numbers over the past US a few years. We've seen

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<v Speaker 1>it in the first half, and so it's it's interesting

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<v Speaker 1>because it's it gets tougher and tougher to do a

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<v Speaker 1>read across from the US because all Thick broadly beat expectations.

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<v Speaker 1>So every single bank beat and Thick Equities was a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit mixed, but in aggregate better um, and we'll

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<v Speaker 1>find out next week UBS reports Credit Suiteen Deutsche Bank

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<v Speaker 1>the week after Barkways is also sort of in that mix. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll find out exactly how much of the better numbers

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<v Speaker 1>are coming from, uh, those share games. Allison Williams the

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<v Speaker 1>busiest person in Bloomberg these days. Thank you so much

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<v Speaker 1>for being with us, Alison Willis. Allison Williams is a

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<v Speaker 1>senior analysts covering global investment, banks and asset management for

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive broker studios.

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<v Speaker 1>Wax Software Wax Inc. Melissa Smith, president CEO, joins us

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<v Speaker 1>right now to talk about the electronic payments business Wax is.

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<v Speaker 1>You can find out on New York Stock Exchange trading

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<v Speaker 1>onto the symbol w e X, about a nine billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollar market cat Melissa, thanks so much for joining us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Portland, Maine. I want to talk

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<v Speaker 1>a little bit about WAX. What is kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>key driver for your story right now? I know about

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<v Speaker 1>two thirds of your revenue had historically been about the

0:12:33.040 --> 0:12:36.160
<v Speaker 1>truck fleet fuel payments business, but I know you've been

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<v Speaker 1>trying to diversify that. So tell us a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>about what the current growth drivers are. Sure Sure So

0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>we're a financial technology service pro fighter and she talked

0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:46.520
<v Speaker 1>about one of the industries that were in his fleet.

0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:50.000
<v Speaker 1>We're also in healthcare, travel and accounts payable. If you

0:12:50.000 --> 0:12:52.640
<v Speaker 1>look at the growth and I'll talk about healthcare just

0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:55.480
<v Speaker 1>for a minute, Um, if you have an h s

0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:57.680
<v Speaker 1>A or an f s A or any type of

0:12:57.760 --> 0:13:01.720
<v Speaker 1>tax defered account where the technology that sits behind that,

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:03.680
<v Speaker 1>and so one of the growth drivers for us in

0:13:03.679 --> 0:13:06.840
<v Speaker 1>that business is the fact that you continue to see

0:13:06.840 --> 0:13:11.320
<v Speaker 1>people moving to high deductible healthcare plans that have HS

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:14.960
<v Speaker 1>accounts associated with that. So is you see that movement,

0:13:15.240 --> 0:13:18.760
<v Speaker 1>we continue to add accounts, uh, and as healthcare costs

0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:22.600
<v Speaker 1>keep changing, that's a place that we we um see

0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.840
<v Speaker 1>continued growth in our business. It's it's a place that

0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:28.120
<v Speaker 1>we've been playing on a lot of focus over the

0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:31.760
<v Speaker 1>last um last several years. So your shares are up

0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:36.680
<v Speaker 1>almost fifty year to date, so UM, not too bad. Well,

0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:38.839
<v Speaker 1>I hope you have stock options. I'm trying to figure

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.599
<v Speaker 1>out going forward what the barrier to entry is this?

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:45.160
<v Speaker 1>What's the competitive landscape for you? Yea in each of

0:13:45.200 --> 0:13:47.320
<v Speaker 1>the industry sphere and so so, first of all, we

0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 1>operate at scale. We have about eighty billion dollars worth

0:13:50.360 --> 0:13:53.720
<v Speaker 1>to spend volume going through our business in our different verticals,

0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.720
<v Speaker 1>so we have scale. We'd use our own internal network,

0:13:57.800 --> 0:14:01.079
<v Speaker 1>so I think of that as relationships. So we've developed

0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:04.920
<v Speaker 1>ourselves and then through some of the networks. But really

0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.560
<v Speaker 1>the two big various for us, it's that the technology

0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 1>is highly integrated into our customers and partners, and and

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 1>they're of all size. They're really large companies and really

0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:17.560
<v Speaker 1>small companies. UM. And what we do is is uniquely

0:14:17.600 --> 0:14:21.160
<v Speaker 1>solve problems that sit in a particular vertical, whether that's

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 1>fleet or travel or healthcare. So I know you have

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.560
<v Speaker 1>some pretty aggressive growth targets ten and fift reruven and

0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:32.720
<v Speaker 1>growth maybe a little bit more than that. Earnings where

0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:34.320
<v Speaker 1>what are the businesses that are really going to drive

0:14:34.360 --> 0:14:35.880
<v Speaker 1>you to that growth. Because as I look at the

0:14:35.880 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>fleet business, that seems to be a slower growing business. Yeah,

0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:41.840
<v Speaker 1>you um, if you look at the sleep business, it's

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:44.240
<v Speaker 1>it's a predictable grow. We had a big stuff I've

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 1>been growth this year and fleet. We migrated over both

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.080
<v Speaker 1>Shallenge Chevron's commercial car portfolios. They were big contract wins

0:14:51.080 --> 0:14:54.000
<v Speaker 1>for us, and we've gone through the implementation process for that.

0:14:54.160 --> 0:14:56.600
<v Speaker 1>So you get a little bit of lumpiness sometimes in

0:14:56.640 --> 0:14:59.720
<v Speaker 1>the growth and sleep, but it is it's predictable. And

0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 1>then at the same time, if you look at the

0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:05.360
<v Speaker 1>growth that we're getting in healthcare and travel, there are

0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:09.040
<v Speaker 1>really good macro that sit behind that, meaning that the

0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:13.080
<v Speaker 1>markets are growing themselves and we're benefiting from that. Both

0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:17.160
<v Speaker 1>in online travel, so our biggest customers and travel or

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:20.520
<v Speaker 1>online travel agencies, so as they continue to see a

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.440
<v Speaker 1>lift in their business, we have seen the benefit of that,

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:27.040
<v Speaker 1>and then we keep adding new partners and customers. Globally.

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:30.360
<v Speaker 1>We just entered on the travel side and to the

0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:32.840
<v Speaker 1>U A E. And so as we continue to extend

0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:35.320
<v Speaker 1>the presence that we have and the capability that we have,

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:37.680
<v Speaker 1>we get a natural lift from that, you have an

0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:42.640
<v Speaker 1>incredible viewpoint into just the thinking right now of executives.

0:15:42.760 --> 0:15:46.320
<v Speaker 1>It's some of these companies that are affected by politics

0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:50.080
<v Speaker 1>and thinking healthcare, or by international national trade tensions, online

0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 1>travel companies, and I'm wondering how much uncertainty you're feeling

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.640
<v Speaker 1>from them, and whether there's a reluctance to invest in

0:15:56.720 --> 0:16:01.760
<v Speaker 1>some of your products because of that. I'm not seeing

0:16:01.840 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 1>uncertainty around UM or an unwillingness to invest. What I

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.640
<v Speaker 1>have seen over the last several years is a desire

0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.320
<v Speaker 1>from some of the biggest companies that we work for

0:16:11.560 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>to have us work on innovation with them, which has

0:16:15.080 --> 0:16:17.840
<v Speaker 1>more to do with a trend of technology changing and

0:16:17.840 --> 0:16:20.920
<v Speaker 1>it's a strength of ours UM to innovate to bring

0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:24.360
<v Speaker 1>new tech into the marketplace, and so we have seen

0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:26.520
<v Speaker 1>more of an interest of doing things like we created

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.760
<v Speaker 1>a product called driver Dash, which is mobile enablement of

0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:34.320
<v Speaker 1>fleet payments where you use facial recognition to turn on

0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:36.840
<v Speaker 1>the app, and the app itself turns on the pump

0:16:37.000 --> 0:16:38.840
<v Speaker 1>as a driver sits next to it. So think of

0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 1>a someone who's moving a forward f to fifty that's

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:45.840
<v Speaker 1>pulling up to a pump. The technology makes that transaction

0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.600
<v Speaker 1>that much more secure, and that's something we did initially

0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 1>with Exa Mobile and and now we're we're doing with

0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:53.800
<v Speaker 1>Shell as well. So I think that there's more of

0:16:53.800 --> 0:16:57.000
<v Speaker 1>a desire to um to partner and to partner with

0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:58.880
<v Speaker 1>people that can move quickly in the space, which I

0:16:58.920 --> 0:17:02.080
<v Speaker 1>think is a benefit of ours. Melissa Smith, thank you

0:17:02.160 --> 0:17:05.000
<v Speaker 1>so much for joining us today. Melissa Smith is President,

0:17:05.080 --> 0:17:21.679
<v Speaker 1>chief executive officer of WAX, joining us from Portland, Maine.

0:17:24.240 --> 0:17:28.280
<v Speaker 1>President Trump is coming under some widespread criticism for his

0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:30.880
<v Speaker 1>Syria policy, and it's not just from Democrats this time.

0:17:31.160 --> 0:17:35.040
<v Speaker 1>Right now that some Democrats, some Republicans are also challenging

0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:38.320
<v Speaker 1>that policy. To get more we welcome Stephen Dennis, senate

0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.120
<v Speaker 1>reporter for Bloomberg News, joins us on the phone from Washington,

0:17:41.200 --> 0:17:43.960
<v Speaker 1>d C. So Stephen, give us the latest on how

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.919
<v Speaker 1>this whole Syria policy is playing out for President Trump

0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 1>in Washington. Yeah, I mean, it's basically overwhelming bipartisan opposition

0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:58.200
<v Speaker 1>to his decision to basically let Turkey invade without us

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.600
<v Speaker 1>taking any real steps to Vntham. You know, we're starting

0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:04.960
<v Speaker 1>to put in play some sanctions and and of course

0:18:05.040 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 1>Mike Pence was sent over there to talk to the

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:13.560
<v Speaker 1>Turkish president. But basically you have a lot of Republican

0:18:13.640 --> 0:18:16.840
<v Speaker 1>leaders over here who are a cast that the Kurds,

0:18:16.920 --> 0:18:20.640
<v Speaker 1>who fought alongside us to help the feed Isis are

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:25.399
<v Speaker 1>being basically left defend for themselves as the Russians and

0:18:25.840 --> 0:18:30.359
<v Speaker 1>Syria forces and and and Turkish forces close in on them.

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 1>And so you know, yesterday in the House, so there

0:18:32.800 --> 0:18:35.359
<v Speaker 1>was an overwhelming vote only sick as your Republicans stood

0:18:35.400 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 1>with the President against this resolution that effectively rebuked him

0:18:40.200 --> 0:18:43.840
<v Speaker 1>for not standing up for the Kurds. And now in

0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:47.560
<v Speaker 1>the Senate, Mitch McConnell, the the Senate majority leader, says

0:18:47.560 --> 0:18:53.520
<v Speaker 1>he wants an even stronger resolution um on Syria. So uh,

0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:57.280
<v Speaker 1>Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader, wants to have action today

0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:00.840
<v Speaker 1>on a resolution. So we'll see what ends up happening. Ing. Uh.

0:19:00.920 --> 0:19:04.119
<v Speaker 1>In the meantime, sort of a fluid situation on sanctions.

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.560
<v Speaker 1>The House Foreign Affairs Committee is looking at sanctions. And

0:19:07.600 --> 0:19:11.960
<v Speaker 1>now we have on the Senate side today Christmin Holland

0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:18.240
<v Speaker 1>Democrat and Lindsay Graham Republican, sometimes chief ally of the President,

0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:21.400
<v Speaker 1>but on this his chief opponent will be introducing sanctions

0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.560
<v Speaker 1>later today much much stiffer than what the President has

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:28.760
<v Speaker 1>been putting forward so far. So House Speaker now Nancy

0:19:28.760 --> 0:19:33.119
<v Speaker 1>Pelosi currently talking actually, and yesterday she made some news

0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:36.320
<v Speaker 1>when she talked about the meeting with President Trump with

0:19:36.359 --> 0:19:39.760
<v Speaker 1>House leaders with congressional leaders about the serious issue, saying

0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:42.800
<v Speaker 1>that President Trump had a quote meltdown. Do we have

0:19:42.880 --> 0:19:45.639
<v Speaker 1>a sense of, first of all, whether that's accurate, but

0:19:45.720 --> 0:19:49.320
<v Speaker 1>second of all, what the broader implications are of the

0:19:49.359 --> 0:19:55.080
<v Speaker 1>pushback the president is getting from Republicans in Congress. Yeah,

0:19:55.119 --> 0:19:58.359
<v Speaker 1>you know, there definitely was a dust up. Um. Pelosi

0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:02.840
<v Speaker 1>basically accused the President didn't on issues including Ukraine and

0:20:02.920 --> 0:20:06.800
<v Speaker 1>Syria and other issues as well, saying that all roads

0:20:06.840 --> 0:20:10.280
<v Speaker 1>would you lead to putin and and basically are helping

0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:14.879
<v Speaker 1>out the Russians and Russian foreign policy and uh, the

0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:18.119
<v Speaker 1>President wasn't happy and and called her a third grade

0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 1>politician whatever that means. Um. And at some point the

0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:26.679
<v Speaker 1>name calling got to be so much that Schumer, uh Stenny,

0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:29.560
<v Speaker 1>Hoyer and and Pelosi decided to get up and leave.

0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:32.679
<v Speaker 1>This is not the first meeting where one side has

0:20:32.680 --> 0:20:35.679
<v Speaker 1>gotten up and left. It was months ago when the

0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.679
<v Speaker 1>President sort of stormed out of a meeting that he

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.919
<v Speaker 1>had called on infrastructure, and he was upset with investigations

0:20:42.920 --> 0:20:45.359
<v Speaker 1>into him. And of course now the House is poised

0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:48.480
<v Speaker 1>to impeach him in the coming months. So this is

0:20:48.600 --> 0:20:50.840
<v Speaker 1>not that big of a surprise that they are at

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.680
<v Speaker 1>each other's throats, if you will that. There is one

0:20:54.680 --> 0:20:58.960
<v Speaker 1>thing I'm watching is whether Republican angst and an upset

0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:04.080
<v Speaker 1>overseer impacts the impeachment to calculus over here in the Senate. Um.

0:21:04.160 --> 0:21:07.320
<v Speaker 1>Some Senate Republicans and Democrats have talked to don't see

0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.359
<v Speaker 1>it affecting it right now, but you know, if you

0:21:10.440 --> 0:21:12.760
<v Speaker 1>actually get to a point where some Senate Republicans are

0:21:12.800 --> 0:21:16.200
<v Speaker 1>considering voting to convict the president, which right now none

0:21:16.280 --> 0:21:19.040
<v Speaker 1>of them are really there. Um, this could just be

0:21:19.160 --> 0:21:22.760
<v Speaker 1>one more feather on the on the scale because Mike

0:21:22.840 --> 0:21:24.879
<v Speaker 1>Pence is seen as somebody who who would have had

0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:28.200
<v Speaker 1>a different foreign policy in this case. So Stephen just quickly,

0:21:28.240 --> 0:21:31.480
<v Speaker 1>what are next moves here? I think the next big

0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:35.480
<v Speaker 1>decision point is what does Mitch McConnell do on this

0:21:35.600 --> 0:21:39.000
<v Speaker 1>sanctions package? Does he want to bring something real with

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:42.520
<v Speaker 1>teeth to the floor that would defy the president? Um,

0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:45.439
<v Speaker 1>it's one thing to have a non binding resolution um,

0:21:45.480 --> 0:21:49.399
<v Speaker 1>which he's done before. It's another thing to actually start

0:21:49.680 --> 0:21:52.920
<v Speaker 1>having Congress take over some big pieces of foreign policy.

0:21:53.359 --> 0:21:55.880
<v Speaker 1>That's something that he's gonna be probably fairly reluctant to do,

0:21:56.359 --> 0:21:59.040
<v Speaker 1>but he's getting a lot of pressure from Republicans who

0:21:59.320 --> 0:22:03.960
<v Speaker 1>want to do something to push back on what they

0:22:04.080 --> 0:22:08.320
<v Speaker 1>what they see happening over there with our allies getting killed.

0:22:08.800 --> 0:22:10.760
<v Speaker 1>Stephen Dennis, thank you so much for spending time. I

0:22:10.760 --> 0:22:12.760
<v Speaker 1>know you've got a very busy schedule. Stephen Tennis and

0:22:12.840 --> 0:22:16.000
<v Speaker 1>a reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us from Washington, d C.

0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:19.000
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast.

0:22:19.200 --> 0:22:21.800
<v Speaker 1>You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts

0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:24.880
<v Speaker 1>or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm

0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:27.600
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm

0:22:27.600 --> 0:22:30.480
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter at Lisa Abram woits one. Before the podcast,

0:22:30.520 --> 0:22:33.119
<v Speaker 1>you can always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.