1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:33,480 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by the Fanduels 3 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 2: sportsbook Brendan glas Sheen, joined by Shanzarello, collinwood Church and 4 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 2: bj Cunningham. We're talking baseball on the Action Network Podcast 5 00:00:42,200 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 2: today Major League Baseball opening Day this week Thursday. In 6 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: this episode, we are giving out our favorite season long 7 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 2: American League best bets. We also have a National League 8 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 2: episode coming out later in the week on the Action 9 00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 2: Network Podcast. Stay tuned for that. Best way to do this, gents, 10 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: We'll go division by division. If you have a favorite play, 11 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 2: could be a win total, could be a division winner, 12 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:11,119 Speaker 2: could be a World Series pick, give it to us. 13 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 2: If you don't have something for each division, not a problem, 14 00:01:13,760 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 2: but we'll go through each division. So we'll start the 15 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: Al East Sean Zarillo, what. 16 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: Do you got, Yeah, I got a couple of Al 17 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 3: East angles, actually three, So in terms of Divisional beat 18 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 3: Penn and Bet. I like the Yankees here. I cap 19 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:27,880 Speaker 3: them as the best team in the American League going 20 00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,560 Speaker 3: into the season. Even with the Carlos Rordon injury. They 21 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 3: won ninety nine games last year. Their Pythagorean record had 22 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,480 Speaker 3: one hundred and six wins, so they actually underachieved by 23 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 3: seven wins relative to that, and typically you see teams 24 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:44,080 Speaker 3: regress towards that Pythagore and Mark in the next season, 25 00:01:44,120 --> 00:01:48,480 Speaker 3: so they should be even better this year. They should 26 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 3: continue to benefit from their defensive value even with the 27 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: shift going away just thirteen percent of their defense and 28 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 3: their their positive defensive value was tied to the shift 29 00:01:59,200 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 3: last season, so largely they are able to play in 30 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 3: an island generate strong defensive value behind the plain hose 31 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 3: at Gavino. That may go away next year with strikes 32 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 3: on being automated. But I do like the Yankees here 33 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,120 Speaker 3: in terms of their divisional odds. Who about minus one 34 00:02:14,160 --> 00:02:17,200 Speaker 3: twenty two. They're pen and odds. I wouldn't bet fast 35 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:19,880 Speaker 3: plus three point fifty, which is roughly the lowest number 36 00:02:19,919 --> 00:02:22,399 Speaker 3: will fine in the market in terms of a team 37 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 3: I like at the end though to make a run 38 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 3: maybe when the World Series, that would be the raise 39 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 3: I think going into the year, the Rays have a 40 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:31,840 Speaker 3: few injuries that make me skeptical that they would be 41 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 3: able to win the Vision. Tyler glassnow banged up, but 42 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: by the time the playoffs come around, they may have 43 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 3: the best and deepest rotation in baseball, you can roll 44 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,680 Speaker 3: out Glass now, Seae McClanahan, Shane Bash should be back 45 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 3: by then. Jeffrey Springs looks great in spring training, Race 46 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:48,119 Speaker 3: extended him. And then you've got all sorts of arms 47 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 3: who were starters rasib Sin Taz, Bradley, Lewis, Patino, Josh Fleming. 48 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:52,520 Speaker 2: You could stick in the bullpen. 49 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 3: I think Wander Franco and Brandon Law are going to 50 00:02:55,320 --> 00:02:57,240 Speaker 3: break out this year. I still believe in Vidal Bruhan. 51 00:02:57,440 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 3: So the Rays and totality their roster down the stretch, 52 00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 3: how they were building towards the end of the season. 53 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 3: I like the Rays of twenty five to one to 54 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 3: win the World Series. But in terms of safer divisional bats, 55 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:10,560 Speaker 3: pen and bets, I think the Yankees are a solid 56 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 3: play in the Ale East, and relative to how I 57 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,079 Speaker 3: have them ranked compared to Houston, I like their penanandes 58 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: as well. 59 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 2: Are you concerned it although if the Rays because McClanahan 60 00:03:18,960 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 2: sort of dipped by the end of the season, he 61 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 2: was in the cull Young Hunt then kind of dipped 62 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:25,520 Speaker 2: out of the race because he had to miss some starts. 63 00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 2: The Glassnewy injury, as you mentioned, can they manage it 64 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: enough during the year to be in contention by the 65 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:33,520 Speaker 2: end of the season. I think so. 66 00:03:33,680 --> 00:03:35,480 Speaker 3: The Rays of one of the deepest forty man rosters 67 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 3: in baseball. You also just look at their projections for 68 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:41,640 Speaker 3: Fangrass Pacoda. On average, they have them around minus one 69 00:03:41,800 --> 00:03:44,760 Speaker 3: seventy to make the playoffs, around a little bit higher 70 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:47,920 Speaker 3: than sixty percent, closer to sixty five percent. So I 71 00:03:47,960 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 3: think they view this team with that third wildcard spot 72 00:03:50,440 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 3: is pretty safe to make it to the playoffs. And 73 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 3: I think their team, in terms of the injuries and 74 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: when the talent's coming back, I think their team should 75 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 3: be peaking around playoff time. So that's why I prefer 76 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 3: them as a World Series bet. If they get to 77 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 3: the dance, twenty five to one is gonna look like 78 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 3: an ice. 79 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: Number, and it might right now minus one eighty eight 80 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: to just make the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays. 81 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,200 Speaker 3: Too, Yeah, I think there's no value in that bad 82 00:04:10,240 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 3: I think that's roughly where it should be. Maybe a 83 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:13,120 Speaker 3: little overflated with the. 84 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:16,279 Speaker 2: Big right, But that adds to your point about taking 85 00:04:16,279 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 2: a shot on the World Series pick, because there's some 86 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 2: there's some better value there. 87 00:04:19,839 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, and it seems like they're a safe bet just 88 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 3: to get there. So that twenty five to one ticket, 89 00:04:23,880 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 3: considering they're likely to get one of the wild card spots, 90 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:27,160 Speaker 3: I think that's pretty nice. 91 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:33,839 Speaker 2: Colin Witchurch, you've got to play on the Boston Red Sox. 92 00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 2: I think we're going to talk a little Red Sox 93 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:36,239 Speaker 2: here the next couple of minutes. 94 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, apologies to both you, Brendan and bj there, but 95 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 4: I am very out on the Red Sox this year. 96 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 4: I'm taking their under on their win total seventy eight 97 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 4: and a half. I think this is the worst team 98 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 4: in the American League East. I think that they finish 99 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 4: in last place. I think the Orioles are going to 100 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 4: be better than them this year. I don't see any 101 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 4: reason for optimism out of these Red Socks right now. 102 00:04:57,800 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 4: You look at this lineup, you look at this rotation. 103 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:02,640 Speaker 4: Opening day starters going to be Corey Kluber, thirty seven 104 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:07,040 Speaker 4: year old Corey Klueber, Corey Klueber back to back and 105 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 4: young winner two times cy Young winner Corey Klueber who's 106 00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 4: now thirty seven, who cannot stay healthy. Back end of 107 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 4: the rotation with guys like Cutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta. I 108 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 4: do like Tanner how a decent amount, But you know, 109 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 4: there's just there's just so much uncertainty around this entire roster. 110 00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:30,599 Speaker 4: Like you can look at the one hundred percentile outcome 111 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 4: out of these guys and you could see a good team. 112 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:35,159 Speaker 4: Chris Sales stays healthy all year, He's back to what 113 00:05:35,240 --> 00:05:38,479 Speaker 4: he was. Sure Justin Turner performs like an All Star 114 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 4: at the age of thirty eight. Sure, maybe Yoshida works out. 115 00:05:41,760 --> 00:05:44,800 Speaker 4: We saw him in the World Baseball Classic. He was awesome, awesome, 116 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: But there is no depth here. They're starting Reese Maguire 117 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:55,680 Speaker 4: at catcher, Christian Arroyo at second base. Devers is also 118 00:05:55,760 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 4: as obviously the cornerstone of that lineup, but everything around 119 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 4: him is just rife with question marks. In you know, 120 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,280 Speaker 4: the best and deepest division in baseball, maybe them or 121 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:10,840 Speaker 4: the NL East, there's not a lot in terms of 122 00:06:11,800 --> 00:06:15,040 Speaker 4: depth pieces or top prospects coming up behind these guys. 123 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:17,160 Speaker 4: You know, you need more than twenty six guys to 124 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,039 Speaker 4: get through a season, and I don't see where those 125 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 4: guys are gonna come from. On the Red Sox, They've 126 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:25,039 Speaker 4: got two non roster invite He's probably gonna make the roster, 127 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 4: Jorge al Farrow, Raimel Tapia, guys who bounced around the 128 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:31,040 Speaker 4: league for the last couple of years. Kenley Jansen, Obviously 129 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 4: they're hoping for a bounce back from him at the 130 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 4: back end of the bullpen. But I just there's a 131 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 4: lot of optimism. I think the optimism about the Orioles 132 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 4: is kind of overblown. However, I understand the optimism against 133 00:06:46,880 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 4: the Red Sox because the Red Sox just kind of 134 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 4: seem like a sinking ship at this point with this roster, 135 00:06:53,240 --> 00:06:56,599 Speaker 4: with this lineup ass currently constructed. Zilla and I have 136 00:06:56,640 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 4: talked on many occasions about we talked about this with 137 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 4: the White Sox and the Phillies in a preseason podcasts 138 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:06,200 Speaker 4: about how if you just judge a team by its 139 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,080 Speaker 4: twenty six man roster, that's not necessarily what you want 140 00:07:09,120 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: to do in judging an entire season. And if you 141 00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 4: judge the forty to forty five players that the Red 142 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 4: Sox are going to need to get through a season, 143 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:19,920 Speaker 4: it just gets really bleak. So I'm sorry. Under seventy 144 00:07:19,920 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 4: eight and a half wins, if there is a bet 145 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 4: that you could place for Division finish odds, and I 146 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 4: would like to see what the odds are for the 147 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 4: Red Sox to finish in fifth place in the Al East, 148 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,240 Speaker 4: because I think there would be some value there as well. 149 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 4: I did want to really quickly mention because Sorillo talked 150 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 4: about the Rays. You know, the Rookie of the Year 151 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 4: races are among my favorites every single year, and Zerrilla 152 00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:44,880 Speaker 4: talked about them peaking late in the season. There are 153 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:46,760 Speaker 4: a couple of rookies on the Rays who I love 154 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,880 Speaker 4: their Rookie of the Year value. Curtis Mead Taj Bradley 155 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 4: needs forty to one, Bradley's eighty to one. Both guys 156 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 4: are starting the year in TRIPAA. Those guys are on 157 00:07:54,680 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 4: my short list of Rookie of the Year bets because 158 00:07:57,640 --> 00:07:59,760 Speaker 4: they could come up and absolutely do wonders for the 159 00:07:59,840 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 4: race is in that stacked system. 160 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:04,680 Speaker 2: Okay, Rookie of the Year market always interesting and just 161 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 2: as a reminder too, like we'll have payoff pitch throughout 162 00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,040 Speaker 2: the season. Folks are Baseball Betting podcast at Action Network, 163 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 2: separate podcast fully dedicated to baseball. I remember last year 164 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,000 Speaker 2: Colin got involved with some live action meeting during the 165 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 2: season where you might have some edges in the Rookie 166 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 2: of the year market. We know Julio Rodriguez was the 167 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 2: runaway guy, but there was some value to be found 168 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 2: down the stretch. BJ Cunningham tell us why the Red 169 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 2: Sox are going to be better? The bullpen's better it 170 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 2: is now, I'll say I don't give out many picks 171 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:37,720 Speaker 2: on this on these kinds of shows. I got the 172 00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 2: Red Sox at seventy six and a half on the over, 173 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:41,680 Speaker 2: so I went out there seventy six and a half, 174 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 2: so Colin, we can both win. But BJ, why do 175 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 2: you have more confidence in the Red Sox? Do you 176 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 2: like the over? 177 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 5: I do, and I think there is a scenario where 178 00:08:49,640 --> 00:08:52,200 Speaker 5: everything actually kind of goes right for the Red Sox 179 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 5: and they potentially go over five hundred. Again, we're not 180 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:56,560 Speaker 5: asking the Red Sox to go over five hundred here 181 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,319 Speaker 5: to hit this win total. We'll only asking them to 182 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 5: win seventy nine games. Now, now you know the additions 183 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:02,840 Speaker 5: they've made offensively. 184 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: I think she looks awesome. 185 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 4: You know. 186 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 5: Even if you look at his projections, he's projected to 187 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 5: be around a three to sixty five wit on Bays 188 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 5: average three war type of player, which is well above 189 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 5: the major league average that adds a huge bat to 190 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 5: the Red Sox lineup. Obviously, Devers is still one of 191 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 5: the best hitters in baseball, Verdugo is still incredibly productive. 192 00:09:19,800 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 5: Key k Hernandez is somewhat hit or missed, but it 193 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 5: still has been a productive hitter for the last two seasons. 194 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 5: And you know, basically what it comes down to for 195 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 5: the Red Sox is what do you get from the 196 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 5: bottom end of their lineup from guys like Bobby Dolbacker 197 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 5: trips and passas. 198 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 2: If those guys. 199 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:38,000 Speaker 5: Perform, you know, where they have been projected to be, 200 00:09:38,240 --> 00:09:41,680 Speaker 5: then the Red Sox lineup could be kind of dangerous. 201 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 5: And yes, the starting pitching is a major concern. You know, 202 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 5: Tanner Hawk, if he's actually able to be what he 203 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,160 Speaker 5: was two seasons ago, then yes, the Red Sox could 204 00:09:50,240 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 5: be okay. 205 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 2: And obviously you're asking Chris. 206 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 5: Sale And and Corey Couber to stay healthy for a 207 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 5: full season, which you know, just gave me a little 208 00:09:57,880 --> 00:10:00,959 Speaker 5: bit of a like shivers through my spine just thinking 209 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 5: about it. So, yes, the starting rotation is bad, but 210 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 5: the bullpen is gonna better. You're right, Brendan, it is 211 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:07,319 Speaker 5: gonna be better. Something the Red Sox have lacked for 212 00:10:07,360 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 5: the last few seasons, is a reliable closer. Last seasons 213 00:10:10,800 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 5: they had three guys tied for eight saves. Now you 214 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,560 Speaker 5: add Penley Jansen, who's been one of the best closers 215 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 5: in baseball for a really long time. Now you have 216 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:21,760 Speaker 5: John Schreiber, who's top twenty five reliever in Major League Baseball. 217 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 2: Last season, he had a two to five XCRA. 218 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 5: They added Chris Martin, who was a top fifty reliever 219 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 5: last season. And you know, I have them power rated 220 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 5: as the sixteenth best bullpen in Major League Baseball. Last season, 221 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 5: they were a bottom five bullpen. So that type of 222 00:10:35,760 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 5: improvement is only going to help the Red Sox. And 223 00:10:38,800 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 5: if you look at composite win total projections from Sean 224 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 5: Zillos but Coda to Davenport, I mean the Red Sox 225 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 5: are closer to eighty wins than they are to around 226 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 5: seventy six or seventy five. So I think there is 227 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 5: a scenario where everything goes right for the Red Sox 228 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,320 Speaker 5: and they potentially get towards being five hundred. Don't think 229 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:56,880 Speaker 5: they're gonna make the playoffs or I don't think they're 230 00:10:56,920 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 5: really going to contend with the starting pitching they have, 231 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 5: but this if it's still very good, and if you 232 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:03,400 Speaker 5: have an average bullpen, that can help out a very 233 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 5: bad starting rotation, which something they didn't have last season. 234 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:08,920 Speaker 5: So I am on the Red Sox over seventy eight 235 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:10,679 Speaker 5: and a half wins. I'm going against Colin and we'll 236 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 5: see how it all ends out. 237 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 2: Brian Bayo could take a leap, Chris Sailing, Chris Saale, 238 00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:20,000 Speaker 2: please stay off the bicycle. If anything, training wheels preferred. 239 00:11:20,040 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 5: If you want to take ninety five and spring training people. 240 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 2: He could be bad. 241 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 4: Hey, you'll never find a bigger Chris Sale stand than me. 242 00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:29,880 Speaker 4: But when Sale and Kluber go down, I look at 243 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,560 Speaker 4: their deth chart, who comes into the rotation. Maybe Bao, 244 00:11:33,280 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 4: Brian Brandon, Walter, Chris Murphy. Who the hell are these guys? 245 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,959 Speaker 2: It's exactly like that's I could see that who are 246 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:47,800 Speaker 2: these guys on the Boston Globe in when they're hanging around. Okay, 247 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,400 Speaker 2: admittedly that is enough Red Sox discussion. Let's go to 248 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,440 Speaker 2: the Al Central. Let's move on to the Al Central. 249 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 2: Colin brought up the White Sox. It's another win total 250 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,319 Speaker 2: angle that Sean Zerla would like to discuss. 251 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,080 Speaker 3: Yeah, my favorite wines at all under For my favorite 252 00:12:01,080 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: win total period for either league, the White Sox under 253 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 3: eighty three and a half still out there. When I 254 00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,800 Speaker 3: looked about a win total, I set an edge bar 255 00:12:08,960 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 3: around three and a half wins compared to my number. 256 00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 3: I have the White Sox at around seventy six and 257 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 3: a half wins, so normally I would look to bet 258 00:12:16,920 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 3: in under eighty after combining in the composite projection that 259 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 3: BJ mentioned, where I look at Davenport, Fangrass, Pakoto's projections 260 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:27,640 Speaker 3: sort of average them into my own because that has 261 00:12:27,679 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 3: been more profitable. Is to take an average of all 262 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:32,600 Speaker 3: four projections over the past four seasons, you would hit 263 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 3: closer to sixty percent than any of them individually, getting 264 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:40,960 Speaker 3: closer to fifty two percent. So including the composite projection, 265 00:12:41,160 --> 00:12:43,199 Speaker 3: it would set the target around eighty two wins. It 266 00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 3: would have their win total at around seventy nine wins 267 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,560 Speaker 3: for the season. All the four projections like them to 268 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,880 Speaker 3: go under. They overachieved technically by three wins. Last year, 269 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,079 Speaker 3: finished with eighty one wins. Pythag was seventy eight, so 270 00:12:58,160 --> 00:13:01,079 Speaker 3: the twenty twenty three projections have them finishing right around there. 271 00:13:01,120 --> 00:13:04,800 Speaker 3: Pythagore in total from last season, bad defensive team, not 272 00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:07,680 Speaker 3: going to get better with the shift. They were actually 273 00:13:07,760 --> 00:13:09,720 Speaker 3: aided because of the ship last year. They were also 274 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:13,000 Speaker 3: a bottom ten base running team. And the biggest concern 275 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,080 Speaker 3: I think is the roster depth. We talked about the 276 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 3: Red Sox. Yes, there's some high in talent on that team. 277 00:13:18,720 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 3: Same thing goes for the White Sox, but once those 278 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:23,760 Speaker 3: stars get banged up, Eloy Jimenez gets hurt every year. 279 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 3: Once those guys get banged up, the replacements that they 280 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,319 Speaker 3: have for them are closer to bottom of the barrel 281 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,880 Speaker 3: replacements than a team like the Rays, who, as I mentioned, 282 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 3: are safe to get to the playoffs because every time 283 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:38,720 Speaker 3: somebody gets hurt, they have a major league average player 284 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 3: to replace them with. Teams like the Red Sox and 285 00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 3: the White Sox are going to be replacing their stars 286 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 3: with below average players, teams that are going to actually 287 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:50,080 Speaker 3: hurt them and then not provide neutral values. So over 288 00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,160 Speaker 3: the course of one hundred and sixty two game season, Yes, 289 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 3: the White Sox have upside to win their division if 290 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 3: they stay healthy, but I think the downside with an 291 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 3: average amount of injuries is very low and they could 292 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 3: conceivably if they end up trading people things completely fall apart, 293 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,920 Speaker 3: would finish closer to seventy wins in my opinion than eighties. 294 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,000 Speaker 3: So the White Sox under eighty three and a half 295 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 3: my favorite win total bet. Obviously, I see the upside 296 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,200 Speaker 3: if everybody stays healthy. There are stars all over this roster, 297 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 3: but the overall depth brings them down dramatically. On top 298 00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 3: of the fact, they're also playing fewer divisional games this year, 299 00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 3: and they were benefiting from one of the weaker divisional 300 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:31,080 Speaker 3: schedules in recent years, So playing more games against the 301 00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 3: AL East the AL West not going to be to 302 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:33,400 Speaker 3: their benefit. 303 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: That's an angle why I like the Red Sox because 304 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 2: they don't have to play their division for most of 305 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 2: the year. 306 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 3: More games against the Central Yeah, any Ale East, Colin 307 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 3: and I and I believe Anthony Dubundo and I talk 308 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 3: about this. It's going to be very difficult for the 309 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 3: Central in either league to get more than one playoff team, 310 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 3: just because we've seen the weakness of those divisions relative 311 00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 3: to the other two divisions in their leagues in the 312 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 3: playoffs throughout the regular season. So the wildcards are likely 313 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 3: to come from the EA in the West this year 314 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:01,840 Speaker 3: in both leagues. 315 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 2: FanDuel's totals for Cleveland, just talking this division, eighty six 316 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 2: and a half is the number at FanDuel right now 317 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: for the Guardians. Minnesota Twins at eighty four and a half. 318 00:15:11,840 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 3: And I'm all over the Guardians. I should mention all 319 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:15,680 Speaker 3: of those numbers had moved, so I don't really see 320 00:15:15,760 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 3: value in the Guardians anymore. I would fade the White 321 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 3: Sox more so than playing on the Guardians at this point. 322 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: Okay, let's go back to Colin speaking of the Twins. 323 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 2: You've got an angle on Minnesota for the coming season, Colin. 324 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 4: Wich, Yeah, I'm not going to pull a BJ here 325 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 4: and defend my shitty baseball team. I think after commit 326 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 4: John said is accurate about the White Sox. As much 327 00:15:34,280 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 4: as it depresses me, I'm going to focus on the 328 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 4: Twins instead. I think there's value on them to win 329 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 4: this division. I got it a couple weeks ago north 330 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:46,000 Speaker 4: of plus two hundred. It's still plus one eighty at FanDuel. 331 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,520 Speaker 4: That's probably about as low as I would bet it. 332 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 4: You can bet plus one eighty, or you can bet 333 00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 4: over eighty four and a half wins. I actually did both. 334 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:57,320 Speaker 4: Very high on this Twins team. I think that there 335 00:15:57,360 --> 00:16:01,600 Speaker 4: is plenty of value in them to get passed Cleveland 336 00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 4: and win this division. The Twins had a sneaky good 337 00:16:04,880 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 4: off season. They didn't make any huge splashes. Obviously, everyone 338 00:16:08,560 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 4: remembers the Correa Saga Corea ended up returning to Minnesota, 339 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 4: but they made some under the radar moves Beyond that. 340 00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:18,880 Speaker 4: I think that there was a lot of criticism about 341 00:16:18,880 --> 00:16:22,520 Speaker 4: the Pablo Lopez for Luis Aria's trade. I think that 342 00:16:23,120 --> 00:16:25,840 Speaker 4: as much as they might miss Arias, I think Pablo 343 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 4: Lopez really helps steady out that rotation. You know it, 344 00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 4: it was just a year, maybe year and a half 345 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,040 Speaker 4: ago that ken To Mayida was their number one or 346 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,440 Speaker 4: number one a starter. He's now entering the season as 347 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 4: their number five starter. All five of their projected starting 348 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 4: pitchers have a projected seasonal ERA by Fangrafts of four 349 00:16:42,880 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 4: point one six or lower. Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Molly Mayada. 350 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 4: There isn't necessarily an ace among that bunch, but there 351 00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 4: is a lot of steady arms there, and they went 352 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 4: out and got guys like Michael A. Taylor who were 353 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:01,160 Speaker 4: gonna help Buxton stay healthy. Usumably Buckston's going to be 354 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 4: able to dh more and it's not going to hurt 355 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,800 Speaker 4: their defense because Taylor is an elite defensive center fielder. 356 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 4: Look at steps forward for guys like Trevor Larnak, guys 357 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,359 Speaker 4: like Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, We're going to see more 358 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:14,159 Speaker 4: of him this year. They have Royce Lewis waiting in 359 00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 4: the wings as well. There is depth there in Minnesota. 360 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,520 Speaker 4: I'm a big fan of Jose Miranda gonna take over 361 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 4: at third base. I think he's in for a big year, 362 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 4: and then whatever the hell they get out of Joey 363 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,280 Speaker 4: gallow and I didn't evention Christian Vasquez. That's a very 364 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 4: good addition at catcher. He's not necessarily a lade at anything, 365 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 4: but again, steadying presence in a very weak division. I 366 00:17:36,880 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 4: understand why Cleveland's the favorite. I think that they should 367 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:42,560 Speaker 4: be the favorite, but I think that people are overlooking Minnesota. 368 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:46,360 Speaker 4: They've obviously been disappointing the last two years, but the 369 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,960 Speaker 4: core of what made them favorites a couple of years 370 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,919 Speaker 4: ago is still there, and they've built up depth around them. 371 00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:56,199 Speaker 4: They've got solid Major leaguers in terms of bench pieces 372 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 4: like Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer and Ryan Jeffers, and 373 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 4: they're both with Jorge Lopez and Joan Duran. Joan Duran 374 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 4: might end up leading the league in saves when it's 375 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:08,000 Speaker 4: all said and done. He's got some of the most 376 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:12,119 Speaker 4: electric stuff in the bullpen there. Period very high on 377 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 4: the Twins there. As I mentioned, plus one eighty to 378 00:18:14,920 --> 00:18:17,160 Speaker 4: win the division is probably as low as I would go. 379 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,080 Speaker 4: And I'm going to keep up with the theme of 380 00:18:19,119 --> 00:18:21,320 Speaker 4: throwing out a Rookie of the Year here with every 381 00:18:21,359 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 4: single division. Oscar colis on my White Sox right now 382 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,320 Speaker 4: at FanDuel is twenty to one. At a lot of 383 00:18:27,359 --> 00:18:29,400 Speaker 4: other books, you'll see him as low as twelve to one. 384 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:31,000 Speaker 4: It looks like he's going to be the opening day 385 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 4: right fielder for the White Sox, gonna have plenty of 386 00:18:34,760 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 4: opportunities to mash and I think there's a lot of 387 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 4: value in the Rookie of the Year market for him 388 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:39,600 Speaker 4: there as well. 389 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 2: BJ Cunningham angle on the Al Central. 390 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I agree with both Sean and in Colin. 391 00:18:45,680 --> 00:18:47,440 Speaker 5: I think that fading the White Sox is the way 392 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 5: to go in this division. You know, even if you 393 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 5: just look at fangrafts projections for you know who's going 394 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 5: to win this division. You know, the Guardians are sitting 395 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 5: at forty two percent and the Twins are sitting at 396 00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 5: thirty four point five percent. So even if you took 397 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:00,879 Speaker 5: both of those teams and just said, you know what, 398 00:19:00,960 --> 00:19:02,959 Speaker 5: I don't really have a strong opinion between the Guardians 399 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 5: or the Twins, I think you would still make it 400 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 5: out profitable essentially just fading the White Sox in this division. 401 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 5: And you know, as far as the Guardians are concerned, 402 00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 5: you know, adding Josh Bell makes their lineup even better. 403 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 5: To an a team that already had a really good bullpen, 404 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,760 Speaker 5: very good starting rotation with Tristan McKenzie hopefully making that 405 00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,399 Speaker 5: next step into being a top twenty type starting pitcher. 406 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 5: You also have a Guardians team that was top five 407 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 5: in defense last season. So I agree with both of 408 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:29,720 Speaker 5: them that fading the White Sox is the way to 409 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,479 Speaker 5: go in this division. And I think you'll come out 410 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:34,520 Speaker 5: profitable if you take both the Twins and the Guardians 411 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 5: to win this division. 412 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 3: My intuitive assumption was that the Guardians would benefit more 413 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,439 Speaker 3: than any of their team from the new rules. I 414 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:42,600 Speaker 3: believe five point thirty eight did a study and determine 415 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 3: that the Guardians would benefit more from the new rules 416 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:46,359 Speaker 3: than any of their team, so I was happy to 417 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 3: see that, like the intuitive nature of that assumption proved 418 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:52,200 Speaker 3: out with somebody actually doing a deeper dive. They were 419 00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:56,120 Speaker 3: top three in defensive value and they will rely least on. 420 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,160 Speaker 2: The shift of any other team. They also are great 421 00:19:58,160 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 2: at base running, So the. 422 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 3: Guardians with the new rules, that's why I have them 423 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 3: just edging out the Twins. Edward Julian really impressed me 424 00:20:04,280 --> 00:20:06,040 Speaker 3: in the World Baseball Classic. I think that's a big 425 00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,879 Speaker 3: reason why the Twins made that Arias trade. This kid's 426 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:11,719 Speaker 3: ready to come up and basically give them the value 427 00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:15,360 Speaker 3: offensively that Arise was providing. So yeah, the Twins are 428 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 3: loaded offensively. They were closer to plus three hundred in 429 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 3: the division earlier in the off season, now Colin saying 430 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 3: they're getting down closer to plus one eighty. I like 431 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,440 Speaker 3: them at plus three hundred. I actually considered betting both 432 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,840 Speaker 3: the Guardians and the Twins. I just ended up fading 433 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 3: the White Sox and betting the Guardians. But yeah, I 434 00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 3: don't disagree. I think the Twins are going to be there, 435 00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 3: just like they were all of last year, and maybe 436 00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:39,360 Speaker 3: because they screwed me last year with our plus four 437 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,600 Speaker 3: hundred divisional tickets, I was less inclined to back them 438 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 3: this year, but definitely see all the arguments for the twins. 439 00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,639 Speaker 3: I think they're going to be just as good, if 440 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:48,920 Speaker 3: not better than they were last year. 441 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:53,000 Speaker 2: Oh a good grudge. Well it's a new season. Onto 442 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 2: the American League West, Astros, Mariners, Rangers, A's and those Angels. 443 00:21:00,080 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 2: Sean Zarillo, I can't believe you're doing it. You're going 444 00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 2: to back the La Angels. I mean there could be 445 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 2: a divide after Otani struck out Treel. I mean that's 446 00:21:07,840 --> 00:21:11,480 Speaker 2: just there could be some infighting there. No, I'm joking 447 00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 2: from the World Baseball Classic, but you see value in 448 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 2: the Angels to come out of the West. 449 00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,639 Speaker 3: I don't think you could argue that there's not value 450 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,080 Speaker 3: in any Angels to win the AL West. They're plus 451 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:24,199 Speaker 3: nine hundred currently in best available odds. Pakoda has them 452 00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,320 Speaker 3: at sixteen and a half percent. That's plus five hundred implied. 453 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 3: Fangrafts has them at fifteen percent around plus five seventy 454 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 3: five implied. They were plus four hundred last year to 455 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:37,120 Speaker 3: win the division. We bet that they're better this year, 456 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:41,879 Speaker 3: deeper roster. Pekota has them finishing eight games behind the 457 00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 3: Astros fangrafts seven games behind, but in third place. That's 458 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 3: why there's a differential. 459 00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 2: In those odds. 460 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,959 Speaker 3: So at plus twelve hundred, when I gave this out earlier, 461 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 3: great bet. At plus nine hundred, ten percent implied still 462 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,840 Speaker 3: a great bet because you're getting a five percent edge 463 00:21:56,400 --> 00:22:00,120 Speaker 3: compared to their least optimistic projection of the two productions. 464 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:03,240 Speaker 3: At plus nine hundred, I think this is a must bet, 465 00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:04,720 Speaker 3: even if it's a tenth of a unit, which is 466 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 3: literally what I have on it. A tenth of a unit. 467 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,560 Speaker 3: That's what you should put on this bet. The Astros 468 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 3: are banged up coming into this season. Projections all like 469 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 3: the Mariners to go under their win total this year, 470 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 3: whether you agree or disagree with that, regardless, the Angels 471 00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,080 Speaker 3: are a value bet to win their division. At plus 472 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 3: nine hundred, I think it's something everybody should bet. They 473 00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 3: were plus I just want to reiterate this. They were 474 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 3: plus four hundred last year. They have a better shot 475 00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 3: of winning their division this year. I don't really get 476 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 3: the ods movement. I don't really get why the odds 477 00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:36,800 Speaker 3: are there are. 478 00:22:36,640 --> 00:22:37,720 Speaker 2: They going to win their division? 479 00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,159 Speaker 3: No, but you still should bet it because the odds 480 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,919 Speaker 3: just don't make sense compared to the fifteen percent projections 481 00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 3: that are out there. 482 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:47,040 Speaker 2: There are going to be moments this season where we're 483 00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:50,200 Speaker 2: in extra innings and Mike Trout gets walked and Zarella 484 00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 2: will say to himself, why do they do this? 485 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 3: It'll happen, It's yeah, if anybody is unaware. I think 486 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,199 Speaker 3: the runner on second base start and extra innings is 487 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 3: dumb purely because you're taking the bat out of the 488 00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 3: hands of the best petyers in the game. There's no 489 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 3: reason why Mike Traut leading off an inning should get 490 00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,359 Speaker 3: to be intentionally walked to bring up Taylor Ward in 491 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:13,400 Speaker 3: the biggest moment of the game. 492 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 2: And while better, as you said, their roster construction is 493 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 2: better that Boston happened the line up. 494 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 3: Deeper at a guys like Hunter Renfro. They have much 495 00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 3: more depth this year and no, Tany's a free agent 496 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,359 Speaker 3: at the end of the year. So if any team 497 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,960 Speaker 3: is ever going to go out and just spend resources 498 00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:33,439 Speaker 3: to trade and add pieces to get them to the playoffs, 499 00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:34,119 Speaker 3: I think it's. 500 00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 2: The twenty twenty three Angels. They have to go all in. 501 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:38,159 Speaker 2: I like it otherwise though. 502 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:39,959 Speaker 3: Tany's leaving and he might leave anyway, but they have 503 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,120 Speaker 3: to show him like we're all in this year. 504 00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:47,280 Speaker 2: Right, Colin Witchurch and it's bring him back. Angels win 505 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 2: total unders. That was a nice sweat by the end 506 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:52,159 Speaker 2: of last year. Colin, You've got a Rookie of the 507 00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:53,840 Speaker 2: Year angle from this division. 508 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, believe it or not, I'm talking Rookie of the 509 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,640 Speaker 4: Year again. But I did want to say that I've 510 00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 4: spent the last several weeks trying to talk myself out 511 00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,000 Speaker 4: of betting the Angels this season, and Sean has done 512 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,600 Speaker 4: me no favors because we're gonna get sucked into the 513 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 4: Angels again this year. 514 00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 2: Point one. 515 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,280 Speaker 3: It's not I'm not asking much tend. 516 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,080 Speaker 4: I know, I know, but I'm a believer. I'm a 517 00:24:16,080 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 4: believer as well. Yes, I'm gonna wrap this up with 518 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 4: one more Rookie of the Year angle. One of the 519 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,479 Speaker 4: things I look at when I'm betting Rookie of the Year, 520 00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 4: which is something that I absolutely love to bet. If 521 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:28,480 Speaker 4: anyone who's listened to me over the last year and 522 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 4: a half knows, is opportunity. That's like the biggest point 523 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,359 Speaker 4: piece in winning Rookie of the Year is actually an 524 00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 4: opportunity to play. You could talk about all of these 525 00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:41,280 Speaker 4: top prospects and you just don't know if the team 526 00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 4: is a gonna call them up early enough and be 527 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:45,520 Speaker 4: there's a spot for them, especially on some of these 528 00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:49,040 Speaker 4: better teams. The Oakland Athletics are not a good team. 529 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,800 Speaker 4: I know Sean is recommending the over on their win total. 530 00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,040 Speaker 4: I see value there as well. Are they gonna lose 531 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,080 Speaker 4: one hundred games? I'm not so sure. But they do 532 00:24:58,160 --> 00:25:02,560 Speaker 4: have a very good starting pick prospect who's currently coming 533 00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,439 Speaker 4: off at sixty to one to win AL Rookie of 534 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 4: the Year. That's Kyle Muller. They got him from the 535 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:11,120 Speaker 4: Braves in the deal that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta. 536 00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,320 Speaker 4: It doesn't look like Muller is going to start the 537 00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 4: year in Oakland's rotation, but that should not last long. 538 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:22,639 Speaker 4: Oakland's rotation, as currently constructed by a roster resource is 539 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,119 Speaker 4: Shintaro Fujinami, who's also kind of a stealth Rookie of 540 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 4: the Year candidate. I actually am a big fan of his. 541 00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 4: Behind him, James Kaprielian, JP Sears, Drew Rusinski, Ken Waldachuck 542 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:35,920 Speaker 4: if you're asking yourself, who the hell are these guys? 543 00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 4: Exactly my point. Kyle Muller came up, made a handful 544 00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 4: of starts for the Braves. At the end of last year, 545 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,959 Speaker 4: it went very poorly. I think playing in Oakland, playing 546 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:48,880 Speaker 4: in that spacious ballpark is going to help him out 547 00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:53,719 Speaker 4: quite a bit if Oakland can play competent defense behind him, 548 00:25:53,720 --> 00:25:56,639 Speaker 4: which Oakland does have some competent defenders. They have some 549 00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:58,440 Speaker 4: competent Major leaguers. They're not going to be a good 550 00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 4: team by any means, but Muller is going to get 551 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:06,680 Speaker 4: the innings to contend here. Last year, the pitcher who 552 00:26:06,680 --> 00:26:09,359 Speaker 4: I was all over was Joe Ryan. Obviously, Julio Rodriguez 553 00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:13,280 Speaker 4: ran away with the award, but Ryan's value got better 554 00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:16,760 Speaker 4: or got worse, I should say, after opening Day, when 555 00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:18,480 Speaker 4: people saw that he was going to be a steadying 556 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:20,879 Speaker 4: force in the Minnesota rotation. I think we got him 557 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,359 Speaker 4: in the thirty to one range last year, and within 558 00:26:23,400 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 4: a couple weeks of the season he was down in 559 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 4: the ten to one range. I think we're going to 560 00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,920 Speaker 4: see the same thing out of Muller as soon as 561 00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 4: he comes up. He's one of my favorite al Rookie 562 00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:32,720 Speaker 4: of the Year bets because he's going to get the 563 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:36,000 Speaker 4: opportunity to pitch every fifth day in Oakland for a 564 00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:37,320 Speaker 4: majority of the season. 565 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:42,240 Speaker 2: All right, good stuff Oakland A's Angles, despite their horrid, 566 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:46,359 Speaker 2: horrid baseball team. BJ Cunningham quick thought on this division 567 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 2: before we wrap up. 568 00:26:47,240 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, I agree with both Sean and Colin. 569 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 5: You know, obviously the Angels are providing value. And the 570 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 5: other thing with the Angels is if you look at 571 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 5: you know, like Sean mentioned, the depth of their roster, 572 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 5: you know, if Anthony Rendon can stay healthy for. 573 00:26:59,320 --> 00:26:59,840 Speaker 2: A full season. 574 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:01,960 Speaker 5: Obviously hasn't been healthy in the last three seasons, but 575 00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:03,880 Speaker 5: if you go back to when he was fully healthy, 576 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 5: he was one of the most productive hitters in Major 577 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,840 Speaker 5: League Baseball. So you obviously don't know what you're gonna 578 00:27:07,880 --> 00:27:09,360 Speaker 5: get from him or if he's actually going to play 579 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,200 Speaker 5: a full you know, one hundred and thirty, one hundred 580 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 5: and forty games. But and also adding Brandon Jury like 581 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:17,639 Speaker 5: who is a very very solid hitter for both for 582 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 5: San Diego last season, so it obviously makes the Angels 583 00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:22,600 Speaker 5: a lot better. And you know the a is their 584 00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,639 Speaker 5: bullpen as well, has is very very average, Like if 585 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,280 Speaker 5: they average added Trevor May, they have a ton of 586 00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 5: guys in there who if you look through all the 587 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 5: projections are right around a three nine ERA pitcher, Like, 588 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,000 Speaker 5: that's right around where the MLB average is. So it's 589 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:38,359 Speaker 5: you know, only asking that team to win. You know, 590 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 5: sixty plus games is good value. I actually have an 591 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,119 Speaker 5: MVP bet from this division. I like Jordan Alvarez a 592 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 5: twelve to one. I don't think he should be above 593 00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 5: ten to one to be the MVP of the AL. Obviously, 594 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:53,760 Speaker 5: it's a very difficult award to win in the American 595 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,080 Speaker 5: League because you have Aaron Judge, who you know had 596 00:27:56,200 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 5: not still obviously one of the best seasons in Major 597 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,600 Speaker 5: League Baseball history last season show hey with the both 598 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 5: the pitcher and hitter angle, and then obviously Mike Troudo 599 00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:05,320 Speaker 5: is still one of the best hits in baseball. But 600 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 5: Alvarez last season but up just as good, if not 601 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 5: better numbers than everybody besides Aaron Judge. You know, you 602 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 5: had thirty seven home runs ninety five RBIs a six 603 00:28:15,040 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 5: point six war and he actually underperformed, Like if you 604 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,440 Speaker 5: look at his weighted on base average, it was four 605 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,159 Speaker 5: thirty two his expected weighted on base average was for 606 00:28:23,400 --> 00:28:26,399 Speaker 5: sixty two, so that was second best in Major League Baseball, 607 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,480 Speaker 5: behind obviously only Aaron Judge. And he topped major League 608 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,480 Speaker 5: Baseball in every single stat cast metric from max says, 609 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:35,600 Speaker 5: exit velosity average, exs of velossiti, barrel rate. And what 610 00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:37,520 Speaker 5: I love about him too is he hits lefties just 611 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 5: as good as he hits righty. So there's really no 612 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,800 Speaker 5: weakness for him as a hitter. And you know, I 613 00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,040 Speaker 5: went through and ran my projections. I have him projected 614 00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 5: as the second best hitter in Major League Baseball or 615 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:49,000 Speaker 5: in the AL coming into the season, obviously behind Aaron Judge. 616 00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 5: You know, I do base runs projections, which you know 617 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,480 Speaker 5: is essentially as a run estimator for how many runs 618 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 5: a guy produces for his team on a per game average. 619 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 5: I have yord On Alvarez at point seven to eight. 620 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 5: That's second best in the AAL, behind obviously only Aaron Judge. 621 00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 5: So you do that over a full season, assuming he 622 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,560 Speaker 5: plays one hundred and forty games, he's contributing to two 623 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 5: hundred and thirty runs towards his team. So obviously health 624 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:09,600 Speaker 5: is concerned. He had a hand injury. You know, going 625 00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 5: into spring training, he's obviously been playing and looking fine, 626 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:14,680 Speaker 5: but you know, if he stays healthy for an entire season, 627 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 5: he has just as good metrics as anybody in Major 628 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:21,440 Speaker 5: League Baseball, obviously outside of Aaron Judge obviously asking Aaron 629 00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,840 Speaker 5: Judge to do a historic season again, which you know 630 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 5: by projections, he's not probably going. 631 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:27,160 Speaker 2: To do that. 632 00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,520 Speaker 5: So your Don Alvarez, I don't think should be below 633 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 5: ten to one to win this award. 634 00:29:32,400 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: Player Props long Shots coming next week on Payoff Pitch, 635 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 2: so be sure to find us there Action Networks Baseball 636 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 2: Betting podcast. That'll put a rap on our American League 637 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,600 Speaker 2: Best Bets episode. Later in the week, we'll have our 638 00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,080 Speaker 2: National League Best Bets episode, so be on the lookout 639 00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,520 Speaker 2: for that for Colin witch Shirt, Sean Zerillo, BJ Cunningham, 640 00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:55,440 Speaker 2: Brendan Glasheen. Thanks for tuning in again. We'll have our 641 00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,520 Speaker 2: final four player Props episode with Sean Kerner and Nick 642 00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 2: Giffin later this week on the Action Network podcast presented 643 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,560 Speaker 2: by Fandel. Thanks for listening. 644 00:30:13,600 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 645 00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 646 00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,120 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler