1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:04,160
Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

2
00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune

3
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:12,240
Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

4
00:00:12,240 --> 00:00:29,040
Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

5
00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:33,120
Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keene with David Gura. Daily we bring you

6
00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:38,200
Speaker 1: insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations.

7
00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:43,199
Speaker 1: Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and

8
00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:51,760
Speaker 1: of course on the Bloomberg. Well, it is, as we

9
00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:53,920
Speaker 1: were saying just a few moments ago on Bloomberg Television,

10
00:00:53,960 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: a very difficult time to make forecasts about what is

11
00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,840
Speaker 1: going to happen. Francine said, we need to get smarter.

12
00:01:01,440 --> 00:01:03,920
Speaker 1: So um, since she and I can't make forecasts, we're

13
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,120
Speaker 1: gonna stick Luigi's and galis with the with the test

14
00:01:07,200 --> 00:01:10,319
Speaker 1: throw him under the bus. He is, of course, with

15
00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:15,759
Speaker 1: the Chicago Booth School. Luigi. It is it is almost impossible,

16
00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:19,000
Speaker 1: I guess, to uh tell anybody what is going to

17
00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:21,800
Speaker 1: happen in this year, with Donald Trump taking office in

18
00:01:21,840 --> 00:01:25,679
Speaker 1: the United States, four major elections coming up in Europe,

19
00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:31,959
Speaker 1: China with its political and ongoing uh economic situation. What

20
00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 1: do you make of two thousand seventeen to come First

21
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,039
Speaker 1: of all, the good news is that we're talking about

22
00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:43,119
Speaker 1: political shocks. We're not talking mostly about economic shocks. So

23
00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:48,720
Speaker 1: we have sort of in our back the financial crisis

24
00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:52,120
Speaker 1: in the United States. I think even Europe, the financial

25
00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:56,000
Speaker 1: crisis is so the past. We still have some problems

26
00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,920
Speaker 1: in my native Italy, but UM, it's not then either

27
00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,840
Speaker 1: is not so big to disrupt the system unless there

28
00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:05,600
Speaker 1: is a break up of the US. So I think

29
00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:09,520
Speaker 1: that from an economic point of view, we're doing fairly well,

30
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,120
Speaker 1: and the problem is from a political point of view.

31
00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:16,160
Speaker 1: I think all the major surprises might come from the

32
00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:21,040
Speaker 1: way Donald Trump will UH actually implement his promises, whether

33
00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:25,520
Speaker 1: he will follow up on trade barriers or retires or not.

34
00:02:26,560 --> 00:02:29,880
Speaker 1: What we're gonna happen in France with the election, what

35
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,720
Speaker 1: is going to happen in Germany with the election, and

36
00:02:33,000 --> 00:02:37,960
Speaker 1: more importantly, to what extent Europe will stick together and

37
00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:43,079
Speaker 1: UH sort of a coherent policy um. And also in China,

38
00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:48,600
Speaker 1: I think that the major uncertainties are about the political future.

39
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:53,280
Speaker 1: China really rely they heavily on fast growth. Now it

40
00:02:53,320 --> 00:02:58,040
Speaker 1: seems that they are accepting to become a normal country

41
00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,799
Speaker 1: with the equals I normal rate of growth, and how

42
00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:05,600
Speaker 1: this will translate politically is very easy to maintain consensus

43
00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:10,320
Speaker 1: when people double their living standards every ten years. Once

44
00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:15,440
Speaker 1: you start to decrease that, then you start have more problems.

45
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:18,600
Speaker 1: So I think that all the shocks will be from

46
00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 1: the political world, not from the economic world this year.

47
00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:26,120
Speaker 1: All right, you've put that very eloquently and simply, Luigi.

48
00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:28,280
Speaker 1: But what is the biggest risk. So we know all

49
00:03:28,320 --> 00:03:31,880
Speaker 1: of these if all of them go wrong, is going

50
00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,320
Speaker 1: to be quite painful and ugly. What is the one

51
00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: thing that really cannot go wrong or it will also

52
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:41,119
Speaker 1: be as equally painfully, painful and ugly. I think that

53
00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 1: I might be biased because I my eyes are always

54
00:03:45,200 --> 00:03:48,280
Speaker 1: on my native Italy, But I think that what cannot

55
00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:51,840
Speaker 1: go wrong is the fact that Italy needs to start

56
00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:56,360
Speaker 1: growing at decent rate again, because if that doesn't then

57
00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 1: the YOU is unsustainable, and if the US sustainable and

58
00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 1: it will breakdown, then this would cause major disruption, not

59
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:07,880
Speaker 1: only in the Europe and in the world. So I

60
00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:12,080
Speaker 1: think that I see really Italy as the weakest link

61
00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:17,440
Speaker 1: in all this uh weak link to begin with, we

62
00:04:17,480 --> 00:04:20,840
Speaker 1: tend to like to talk about Europe, and Europe has

63
00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:24,479
Speaker 1: certainly influenced global trading for the last five years, with

64
00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:27,840
Speaker 1: one perfect country or another being in trouble. But a

65
00:04:27,920 --> 00:04:29,600
Speaker 1: lot of people would say China is going to be

66
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 1: a bigger story in two thousand and seventeen because you've

67
00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,520
Speaker 1: got a Party Congress coming up at some time in

68
00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:38,719
Speaker 1: the fault. But that way, you've got the tensions between

69
00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:42,039
Speaker 1: the US Donald Trump and and the Chinese and the

70
00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:47,919
Speaker 1: Chinese economy being so important to the US and the world. Um.

71
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:50,640
Speaker 1: You know, people have predicted the demise of China for

72
00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:53,279
Speaker 1: the last twenty years and that they've always been wrong.

73
00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:57,160
Speaker 1: Eventually there will be right. Eventually China will become a

74
00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:02,320
Speaker 1: normal country with a normal recession, which means not just

75
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,920
Speaker 1: a slowdown in GDP growth but actually negative GDP growth.

76
00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:09,640
Speaker 1: And but I think that the problem will be mostly

77
00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 1: again a political problem. How the Chinese sort of system

78
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,560
Speaker 1: will called political system, will cope with is low growth

79
00:05:18,640 --> 00:05:21,120
Speaker 1: or even a negative growth for a couple of quarters.

80
00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:25,799
Speaker 1: We don't know. This is unprecedented, and to be honest,

81
00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:31,160
Speaker 1: we don't understand collectively very well out China walks, and

82
00:05:31,279 --> 00:05:36,880
Speaker 1: I certainly don't what is the thing that actually, who

83
00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,480
Speaker 1: doesn't understand China? Right? I mean, if you look at China,

84
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,359
Speaker 1: there's tray lama, or there's geopolitics. What is most worrying

85
00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:45,960
Speaker 1: to you? Is it the politics and possible trade wars

86
00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:47,960
Speaker 1: or is it just the fact that it's a huge economy,

87
00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:51,520
Speaker 1: it's a sleeping dragon, and anything could go wrong. I

88
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:55,480
Speaker 1: think that anything can go wrong. But my favorite thing

89
00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,120
Speaker 1: that can go wrong our banks. They have always the

90
00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:02,919
Speaker 1: weakest link. I think that first of all, um, you

91
00:06:02,960 --> 00:06:06,679
Speaker 1: didn't need to be a sophisticated banker to make money

92
00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,760
Speaker 1: in China. When the economy grows at seven percent a year,

93
00:06:10,120 --> 00:06:12,359
Speaker 1: you basically throw money at people and most of the

94
00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,240
Speaker 1: time you make a decent return. So once you see

95
00:06:16,320 --> 00:06:20,880
Speaker 1: us low down, then you're gonna start see who is

96
00:06:20,920 --> 00:06:24,360
Speaker 1: swimming naked. And I fear that some of the banks are.

97
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 1: And we know that we are under a mild capital

98
00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:32,120
Speaker 1: flight from China, a lot of Chinese investors bringing their

99
00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,880
Speaker 1: money about to the extent they can and and this

100
00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,240
Speaker 1: will make sort of the financial system weaker. So I

101
00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:43,440
Speaker 1: think that if the weez a hrisk in China comes

102
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:46,480
Speaker 1: from the banking system, the financial system, and of course

103
00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:49,480
Speaker 1: as we've seen in the United States, that we've seen

104
00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:52,279
Speaker 1: in Europe, this can propagate to the economy at large.

105
00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:56,880
Speaker 1: Do you have a great fear that the banking system

106
00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,800
Speaker 1: could be a problem in two thousand and seventeen, or

107
00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,919
Speaker 1: have we taken enough steps to uh bring the European

108
00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:10,920
Speaker 1: banks into at least a non systemic risk. Again, I

109
00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:14,920
Speaker 1: will divide between the United States, where I think we've

110
00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,840
Speaker 1: taken enough steps and I don't see sort of a

111
00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:23,040
Speaker 1: crisis looming anytime soon, China, where sort of we don't

112
00:07:23,040 --> 00:07:25,480
Speaker 1: know very much, but I think that the probability is

113
00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:30,120
Speaker 1: the highest, and and Europe, where sort of the we

114
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:36,800
Speaker 1: capitalization of European banks have been fairly slow, and where

115
00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:42,679
Speaker 1: we do have some stress, in particular in my native Italy.

116
00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:47,160
Speaker 1: So I think that I will divide the three major

117
00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:49,440
Speaker 1: areas of the world, and I think that the risk

118
00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,680
Speaker 1: is very different across those areas. I want to point out.

119
00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:54,720
Speaker 1: I started to say this at the end of the

120
00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,800
Speaker 1: last plot that on Tuesday, y'all because I'm not gonna

121
00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:01,480
Speaker 1: be on the show on Tuesday, but uh, but Frenchy

122
00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,600
Speaker 1: and is part of it a special edition of Bloomberg

123
00:08:03,600 --> 00:08:06,840
Speaker 1: saveillance Tom Keene David Girl live from the Eurasia Group's

124
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,240
Speaker 1: headquarters to discuss the top risks for two thousand seventeen.

125
00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:14,440
Speaker 1: Guests include Ian Bremer, Larry Summers, Rogam Regin, many more,

126
00:08:14,640 --> 00:08:17,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance seven Am Wall Street Time of course every

127
00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:20,760
Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg Radio. Now, let me go back to

128
00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,200
Speaker 1: what part of that probo said there. They're going to

129
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,000
Speaker 1: discuss the top risks for two thousand seventeen, which is

130
00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,400
Speaker 1: what we've been doing all morning, and Luigi's and Gauss

131
00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:32,800
Speaker 1: of the Chicago Boos School is here with us, and

132
00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:35,480
Speaker 1: he and I were talking off microphone about how that's

133
00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:38,120
Speaker 1: kind of always what we do with these guesses, like

134
00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:40,760
Speaker 1: what's going to go wrong next year? Let me ask

135
00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:44,160
Speaker 1: you this, what's going to go right in two thousand seventeen.

136
00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,679
Speaker 1: First of all, I'm a pessimist, so I'm better you

137
00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,160
Speaker 1: feel comfortable with that. But I think that actually the

138
00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:54,720
Speaker 1: US economy is doing remarkably well of it all, and

139
00:08:55,440 --> 00:09:00,960
Speaker 1: if Trump follows up with this idea of basically physical stimulus,

140
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:03,079
Speaker 1: it doesn't like to call it that way, but this

141
00:09:03,160 --> 00:09:07,080
Speaker 1: is what amounts to um. I see sort of healthy

142
00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:09,840
Speaker 1: growth rates in the U. S economy. At least for

143
00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,240
Speaker 1: the next year and a half. Add so I think

144
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:17,959
Speaker 1: that the risk are more from overseas rather than from

145
00:09:17,960 --> 00:09:21,439
Speaker 1: the United States. Actually, when you look at the United States, Luigi,

146
00:09:21,559 --> 00:09:25,200
Speaker 1: a three percent GDP growth, is that achievable or would

147
00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,679
Speaker 1: that be overshooting a little bit? I think it's achievable.

148
00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,040
Speaker 1: The big question, and we economists are very terrible and

149
00:09:32,120 --> 00:09:35,760
Speaker 1: answering this, is whether we're going to have more productivity growth?

150
00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:38,080
Speaker 1: And this is the three or three and a half

151
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:41,359
Speaker 1: percent is not achievable if we don't have healthy productivity

152
00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 1: growth because as we know, um sort of unemployment is

153
00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,320
Speaker 1: very low, so it's very hard to bring more people

154
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,440
Speaker 1: in the workforce. So the only way to grow is

155
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,640
Speaker 1: to actually to make those people more productive, which has

156
00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:59,120
Speaker 1: been the weak spot of the US and the global

157
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,760
Speaker 1: ward in the asked a couple of years. And I

158
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,400
Speaker 1: think it would be great if we have a turnaround

159
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,960
Speaker 1: of that in two thousand and seventeen. If if I

160
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,960
Speaker 1: have a wish, is my wish for thousand and seventeen

161
00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:17,280
Speaker 1: is that productivity starts rising again. Is productivity going to

162
00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:21,440
Speaker 1: start rising again? Because that's the key question obviously, unless

163
00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:25,199
Speaker 1: something remarkable, a miracle happens. We're not going to see

164
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:29,000
Speaker 1: the leaver force grow tremendously in the next few years.

165
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,600
Speaker 1: But can we get productivity up? I think so in

166
00:10:33,640 --> 00:10:37,600
Speaker 1: the stance, I think that in productivity we go through

167
00:10:37,600 --> 00:10:41,600
Speaker 1: these cycles. I remember, unfortally, I'm old enough to remember

168
00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:43,920
Speaker 1: in the mid eighties people will say, oh, we don't

169
00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,839
Speaker 1: see the benefits of all these computers, and then all

170
00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:49,240
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the midnight is we saw sort of

171
00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:53,680
Speaker 1: a burst of productivity growth, which eventually this technology was

172
00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:59,439
Speaker 1: put to an application. We see now tremendous improvement. I

173
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 1: think about a driverless car, uh and how this can

174
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:09,000
Speaker 1: change things, or the availability of cheap drones to do

175
00:11:09,040 --> 00:11:11,559
Speaker 1: a lot of things for us um. I think that

176
00:11:12,400 --> 00:11:17,040
Speaker 1: the implementing those changes in organizations so that you see

177
00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,520
Speaker 1: the productivity gains is not a piece of cake. There

178
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:24,840
Speaker 1: is the technological aspect. We always underestimate the organizational aspect,

179
00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:29,240
Speaker 1: and and so they're going to organizations take longer to adapt,

180
00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,640
Speaker 1: but eventually they do, especially under a sort of intense competition,

181
00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:35,240
Speaker 1: Eventually they do and then we see the productivity gains.

182
00:11:35,280 --> 00:11:38,400
Speaker 1: So my hope is that all these changes that we've

183
00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 1: seen in technology, and we have not seen in the

184
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:44,280
Speaker 1: productivity numbers will eventually show up, but this has to

185
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,839
Speaker 1: come from the private sector. Is there really anything that

186
00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,800
Speaker 1: the new administration can do to play with productivity to

187
00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:54,200
Speaker 1: make it better? Um, I think that you're absolutely right.

188
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 1: Most of the productivity gains come from the private sector.

189
00:11:57,120 --> 00:11:59,839
Speaker 1: Of course, there are plenty. There's plenty of room to

190
00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:03,400
Speaker 1: improve the productivity all the public sector. I think it

191
00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:06,199
Speaker 1: is still a fairly large chunk of the economy. So

192
00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:11,200
Speaker 1: if we can apply some of uh the organization of

193
00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:14,840
Speaker 1: techniques of the product sector, maybe we have a gain.

194
00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:19,240
Speaker 1: But the best thing for productivity, UM, from the government

195
00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,520
Speaker 1: point of view, is to have a stable environment, no surprises,

196
00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:26,479
Speaker 1: and hopefully we're gonna have that into thousand and seventeen.

197
00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,800
Speaker 1: Well hopefully, you said, Gods Chicago Boot School, thank you

198
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:35,360
Speaker 1: very much for joining us today on surveils. Who you

199
00:12:35,400 --> 00:12:39,240
Speaker 1: put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust

200
00:12:39,360 --> 00:12:42,680
Speaker 1: in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four

201
00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:47,280
Speaker 1: trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve,

202
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,000
Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the

203
00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:55,719
Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately

204
00:12:55,760 --> 00:13:00,160
Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn

205
00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:12,040
Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. The politics

206
00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:16,920
Speaker 1: of the transition between Barack Obama and Donald Trump complicated

207
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:19,720
Speaker 1: this week not just by Russia, but by the US

208
00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,800
Speaker 1: decision to abstain during a vote in the U n

209
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 1: to condemn Israel for its settlement building policies. Dennis Ross

210
00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:30,920
Speaker 1: has been uh well, he is the man on the

211
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 1: Middle East. He's been the Middle East negotiator for US

212
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:37,160
Speaker 1: administrations from the time of George H. W. Bush up

213
00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:40,720
Speaker 1: through Barack Obama. He joins US now from Tel Aviv.

214
00:13:41,000 --> 00:13:45,720
Speaker 1: He is distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute. Now, Dennis

215
00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:52,680
Speaker 1: uh lot of handering, lot of name calling from Israel

216
00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,760
Speaker 1: from the United States politicians on all sides. And I

217
00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:58,640
Speaker 1: say all sides because there are many sides in Israel

218
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:04,199
Speaker 1: of the Aisle. But how significant was this actually in

219
00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,840
Speaker 1: terms of the long term effort to eventually bring peace

220
00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 1: to that region. Well, I think we had two events

221
00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:17,520
Speaker 1: in this past week. One was the Security Council resolution

222
00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:20,560
Speaker 1: in which the United States substained, and then the second

223
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,280
Speaker 1: one was obviously the speech by the Secretary of State.

224
00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:28,000
Speaker 1: If you look at the two, there's actually some dissonance

225
00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 1: between them. What I mean by that is that in

226
00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 1: the Security Council resolution in which we abstained, which allowed

227
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:39,240
Speaker 1: it to go through the territories ineffectively is defined as

228
00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:43,800
Speaker 1: Palestinian from June. From the June four sixty seven lines. Uh.

229
00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 1: The idea that settlements are illegal is actually inconsistent with

230
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,600
Speaker 1: something that the Secretary of State proposed as one of

231
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,640
Speaker 1: the ways, one of the principles on which to determine

232
00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:01,200
Speaker 1: the border in any kind of peace agreement. And by

233
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,040
Speaker 1: that I mean that the you need the settlement blocks.

234
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,160
Speaker 1: Going back to Camp David that I was a part

235
00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:10,840
Speaker 1: of in the year two thousand, we had a formula

236
00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,120
Speaker 1: which was seven and mutually reach swaps. What that meant

237
00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:17,960
Speaker 1: was there would be settlement blocks on about five of

238
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:23,000
Speaker 1: the West Bank that would accommodate the Israeli settlers. In

239
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,600
Speaker 1: return for those that fortified percent of the Israelis within

240
00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,520
Speaker 1: the next in Israel, there would be some kind of

241
00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,400
Speaker 1: territorial exchange or compensation given to the palt Scenes by

242
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:38,000
Speaker 1: the Israelis. Now, when you declare that settlements, all settlements

243
00:15:38,040 --> 00:15:42,040
Speaker 1: beyond the June four sixty seven lines, including what takes

244
00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,560
Speaker 1: place in East Jerusalem are illegal. It makes it difficult,

245
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:50,640
Speaker 1: not impossible, obviously, but difficult to then use settlement blocks

246
00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,960
Speaker 1: and swaps as the basis on which you're going to

247
00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:56,160
Speaker 1: sort out the border and some eventual peace agreement. So

248
00:15:56,640 --> 00:16:01,000
Speaker 1: I do find a kind of distance there that does

249
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:04,400
Speaker 1: complicate things for the future. The larger question you're asking about,

250
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:09,200
Speaker 1: does this tension, the current tension between the outgoing of

251
00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:13,160
Speaker 1: Moom administration and the net and Yahu government. Is it

252
00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:17,360
Speaker 1: going to somehow transform the relationship? Is it unique in

253
00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:21,200
Speaker 1: terms of what we've seen in the relationships between American

254
00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:26,560
Speaker 1: administrations and Israeli administrations. The answers, no, Wellether, there's a

255
00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:30,160
Speaker 1: fundamental the fundamental approach of security hasn't changed. And secondly,

256
00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,440
Speaker 1: it's not unique to have American presence and Israeli prime

257
00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,960
Speaker 1: ministers not necessarily get along, as we know from reading

258
00:16:36,040 --> 00:16:38,560
Speaker 1: your book Doomed to Succeed, which is a history of

259
00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 1: the US Israeli Middle East efforts, and I highly recommend

260
00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 1: that to everyone. UH Secretary of State Carry gave a

261
00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 1: speech this week, and respected analysts like Tom Friedman of

262
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:51,920
Speaker 1: The New York Times also point out that maybe this

263
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 1: is not though about trying to use the settlement blocks

264
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,840
Speaker 1: as negotiating pieces as you try to recreate the map,

265
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:05,120
Speaker 1: but too basically bulldoze that whole idea of a two

266
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:10,880
Speaker 1: state solution, and that people in politicians in Israel are

267
00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:13,800
Speaker 1: at this point trying to build settlements wherever they can

268
00:17:14,200 --> 00:17:18,399
Speaker 1: to make a one state solution the only one possible. Well,

269
00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:22,160
Speaker 1: there's no question that within this current Israeli government there

270
00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,080
Speaker 1: are parties. One party is called the Jewish Home headed

271
00:17:25,080 --> 00:17:30,160
Speaker 1: by enough Tally Bennett and and Secretary of State Kerry

272
00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:35,920
Speaker 1: implicitly referred to him when he talked about Israeli ministers

273
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:40,240
Speaker 1: within this government who announced when Donald Trump was elected

274
00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:45,360
Speaker 1: that that's the end of the two states. Uh possibility. Uh,

275
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 1: There's no question that there are some who in fact

276
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 1: have in mind that Israel shop basically annext a significant

277
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,760
Speaker 1: part of the West Bank, including an area known as

278
00:17:56,760 --> 00:18:00,159
Speaker 1: there Is Sea, which comes of the West Bank, and

279
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 1: that would rule out any Palastinian state. There's no question

280
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:05,800
Speaker 1: that's part of this Israeli government. That's not the declared

281
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,439
Speaker 1: position of the Israeli Prime Minister, who says his position

282
00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 1: as two states for two People's what Tom Friedman was

283
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 1: getting at is that given what is going on on

284
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 1: the ground, that said, the current Israeli behavior, he is

285
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,280
Speaker 1: not consistent with what would be an effort to produce

286
00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,800
Speaker 1: two states, And what the Secretary of State was doing

287
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 1: was an effect calling out that behavior. It's true, but

288
00:18:29,920 --> 00:18:34,200
Speaker 1: there is also again a kind of inconsistency because while

289
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 1: it may be on the Israeli side, we have part

290
00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,439
Speaker 1: of this Israeli government that's behaving in a way that

291
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,959
Speaker 1: is going to produce a drift towards one state. The

292
00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:47,480
Speaker 1: Obama administration has not drawn as distinction between settlements. They

293
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: treat every settlement beyond the June four sixty seven lines

294
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 1: as being equal, which means they don't They draw no

295
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 1: distinction between settlement construction within the settlement blocks, which would

296
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:00,480
Speaker 1: be consistent of two states, and settlement construction that's outside

297
00:19:00,480 --> 00:19:03,320
Speaker 1: the blocks, which would not be consistent. So, in effect,

298
00:19:03,320 --> 00:19:06,879
Speaker 1: you have both sides at this point acting in a

299
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:11,000
Speaker 1: way that doesn't fully reflect what would be your priority

300
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 1: if you're really trying to preserve a two state outcome.

301
00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,240
Speaker 1: In a sense, what I'm suggesting is that I would

302
00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:20,440
Speaker 1: like to see the Israelis change their behavior and build

303
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:22,480
Speaker 1: only the settlement blocks and I would like to see

304
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 1: an American administration except the distinction between building within the

305
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,679
Speaker 1: blocks and building outside the blocks. All right, And do

306
00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:32,240
Speaker 1: you think that Donald Trump will be the person to

307
00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 1: make that distinction. I don't know. Uh at this point.

308
00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 1: You know, there's nothing that he has said that would

309
00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 1: give me confidence that he will do that. I'm hoping

310
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,440
Speaker 1: that he will do that because I think it's it's

311
00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: one way to be able to preserve a two state outcome.

312
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 1: What I am worried about. And I think what was

313
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:58,280
Speaker 1: a very legitimate part of Secretary speech was his his

314
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 1: focus on the drift towards one state. Uh. You know,

315
00:20:03,280 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 1: there's a lot I'm sitting here in Israel and there's

316
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,159
Speaker 1: there was a lot of ankst in response to the

317
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:10,560
Speaker 1: to the Carry speech and obviously in response to the

318
00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 1: Security Council resolution. But the one thing that all that

319
00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 1: ankst wasn't addressing was the issue that Carrie was raising

320
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,199
Speaker 1: that on the current path, the result is going to

321
00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:28,520
Speaker 1: be a binational state. Uh. And there is a need

322
00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 1: for this Israeli government to address what Carry was raising,

323
00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,560
Speaker 1: not simply to focus on the inappropriateness of the speech.

324
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: I I understand having a Secretary of State give a

325
00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:43,199
Speaker 1: seventy five minute speech when the Middle East is basically royaling,

326
00:20:43,280 --> 00:20:46,520
Speaker 1: when you got a conflict in Syria that produced half

327
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 1: a million dead and twelve million refugees, and mosl is

328
00:20:50,359 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 1: still a very hard slog and Isis is still there,

329
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: and there's a proxy war in Yemen and so forth

330
00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,400
Speaker 1: and so on. I understand that it seems a little

331
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: out of place and out of context to be giving

332
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: a seventy five minutes speech on the Israeli Passinian issue

333
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:07,320
Speaker 1: at this point. But even if that's the case, the

334
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,880
Speaker 1: question about the drift of the current Israeli governments policies

335
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,880
Speaker 1: leading towards by national state ought to be addressed by

336
00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 1: the Israeli government. They ought to, you know, the Prime

337
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: Minister of Israel Law to explain why his policies won't

338
00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 1: uh end up in that outcome uh and uh and

339
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,040
Speaker 1: in the Samese address. But Carry was saying, as opposed

340
00:21:27,080 --> 00:21:32,439
Speaker 1: to simply being expressing disappointment about it. The only is

341
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:36,199
Speaker 1: maybe too long a question, but for the minute we

342
00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 1: have left, but so very quickly. One of the things

343
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,480
Speaker 1: that struck me about carry speech was when he outlined

344
00:21:41,520 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: how difficult it would be for a one state solution

345
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:49,760
Speaker 1: to work. It won't work. You have two national movements,

346
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: two national identities. Look at the Middle East. There is

347
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,120
Speaker 1: no state in the Middle East where there's more than

348
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 1: one identity or national identity that is at peace. It's

349
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:01,840
Speaker 1: at war. And so if you want a prescription for

350
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 1: during conflict, try to create one state where you have

351
00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: two separate national identities. It simply won't work. Dennis Ross

352
00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: is with US. He's a C. D Fellow at the

353
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: Washington Institute. He's been a negotiator for the US in

354
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: the Middle East for for many decades now. It is

355
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: also a question about the first quarter coming up that

356
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,399
Speaker 1: we usually face frency and then is do we see

357
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: a weather related first quarters slow down? We've seen it

358
00:22:42,640 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 1: in the last two or three years here and a

359
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: lot of people looking to the United States for for

360
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 1: strength to lead the world. And yet we may see

361
00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:57,360
Speaker 1: for some reason slower growth than people are expecting. Yeah,

362
00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 1: that that is certainly something we need to watch out for.

363
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: I would argue Mike that if you look at all

364
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 1: the uncertainties in seventeen and when it comes to growth,

365
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 1: when it comes to you know, um, the foreign policy,

366
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 1: how trade, wars will play out. You do have to

367
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 1: make sure that we don't forget the common person on

368
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 1: the street. Right if he or she feels a little

369
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,119
Speaker 1: bit better about what's going on around the world. You

370
00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: call it animal spirits, you call it soft power, whatever

371
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: you want to call it, then it will help consumption

372
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,480
Speaker 1: almost you know, defying any currency moves that we watch

373
00:23:27,520 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: out for in the markets. Well, they say they're feeling better.

374
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: That's the interesting thing since, and this is a historical pattern.

375
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: After the U. S election is over, consumer confidence rises.

376
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: So does it really mean a lot? Are we going

377
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:44,240
Speaker 1: to see a boost to consumption? Uh? Don rist Miller

378
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:47,199
Speaker 1: is that chief economist. It's strategiously changes now here in

379
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:52,880
Speaker 1: the studio. Don are we going to Normally economists can't

380
00:23:52,920 --> 00:23:57,239
Speaker 1: make a tight correlation between confidence and consumer spending. Are

381
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: we going to see that change in two thousands seventeen

382
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: because the nature of the political campaign that we went through, Well,

383
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: let's look at some of the recent data. We certainly

384
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: had a surge in headline confidence, there's no question about that.

385
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: But when you dig into some of the details, it's

386
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: not quite as promising as those headlines. For instance, if

387
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:21,679
Speaker 1: we break the confidence measures into present situation expectations components.

388
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 1: The expectations components are driving that rise, and so expectations

389
00:24:27,600 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: can be very finicky. It could be the stock markets

390
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 1: up or something of that sort. The present situation component

391
00:24:34,680 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 1: generally ties much closer to the labor market, and if

392
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,520
Speaker 1: that's not moving as much, then we're not going to

393
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 1: get that direct path through to consumption. The most important

394
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 1: variable for consumer spending is whether you have a job,

395
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: and that is likely to go up right. I know

396
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 1: we're nearing full employment in the in the United States,

397
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 1: but if we believe what people think and the euphori

398
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 1: in the market, it's Donald Trump would create more jobs

399
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 1: in yes, and that's just a question of how many.

400
00:25:03,800 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: And there's little question that employment gains should continue. We

401
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:11,640
Speaker 1: believe that. I think that's consensus at this point. It's

402
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: just are we really going to accelerate. That's what the

403
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: consumer confidence numbers are saying, is we're going to accelerate.

404
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: It's tough to accelerate in the second half of a

405
00:25:19,600 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 1: business cycle. And I think it's worth remembering, as we said,

406
00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:26,679
Speaker 1: that the US economy is close to full employment, and

407
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: so job gains may not be the numbers of two

408
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 1: hundred thousand a month those type of of items that

409
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: we've seen in the past. In fact, anything on the

410
00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,159
Speaker 1: order of a hundred thousand jobs a month is probably

411
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,440
Speaker 1: pretty good at this late stage of the cycle. Could

412
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:45,399
Speaker 1: we see instead of jobs created, demand for workers still

413
00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: remain strong enough that we get a faster increase in wages.

414
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 1: That too, might feed consumer sentiment for for a period. Yes,

415
00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: though I would prefer to see wages going up because

416
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,120
Speaker 1: productivity is going up. In the words, we know that

417
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 1: that real wages and productivity should move together over time.

418
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:06,840
Speaker 1: The best case scenario we could tell, I would think,

419
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,359
Speaker 1: is now we're going to get not just some gains

420
00:26:10,359 --> 00:26:13,679
Speaker 1: and jobs, but also some capital spending, some increase in

421
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 1: productivity that will get us the g d P that

422
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,760
Speaker 1: we that we'd like to see as the cycle matures.

423
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: What's more important is it capital spending or is it

424
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 1: actually productivity gains? The two don't necessarily go ahead and

425
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: hand on now, though, I'd say the fact that we've

426
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: had very restrained capital spending now for really two years,

427
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: though we could make a broader case for even longer

428
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 1: than that, has probably contributed to to quite weak productivity gains.

429
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 1: Some of that can be tied to the energy patch

430
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,280
Speaker 1: in particular, but generally, if we have capital deepening, if

431
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,439
Speaker 1: we have turned over in the labor market, and we

432
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,639
Speaker 1: see some of that in the jolt state of the

433
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: job opening and labor turnover survey, that could better matching.

434
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 1: That could be a good productivity story generally. Well, that's

435
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 1: one of the questions is do we are we able

436
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,679
Speaker 1: to match workers two jobs at this point? Does that

437
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,800
Speaker 1: get any better? In two thousand seventeen, one of the

438
00:27:09,920 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: concerns has been is people can't find qualified workers. There's that.

439
00:27:14,320 --> 00:27:18,040
Speaker 1: I think it's also that some of our good companies,

440
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: some of our successes in the past five years in particular,

441
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: have been institutions that maximize existing resources. So, whether that's

442
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: companies that use technology to say something is not employed,

443
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,199
Speaker 1: let me put it into into use, whether I have

444
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 1: a spare automobile, or or spare space in a hotel

445
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: or spare space in an apartment. We're doing a good

446
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: job maximizing existing resources. What we'd really like to see

447
00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 1: as new industries developed that can employ workers and things

448
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 1: we're not even discussing yet. Um, well, maybe we'll have

449
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 1: automated radio hosts. But for the moment you have me.

450
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,439
Speaker 1: Frants uh something would say Thom is a machine, but

451
00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 1: he didn't take the week off, so we give him

452
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: credit for that. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

453
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever

454
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm out on Twitter at Tom Keene.

455
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: David Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you

456
00:28:27,000 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you

457
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: put your trust in matters. Investors have put their trust

458
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of four

459
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:56,000
Speaker 1: trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your independent advisor

460
00:28:56,080 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 1: dot com