WEBVTT - OpenAI Becomes World’s Largest Startup

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg Tech is a

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<v Speaker 1>live from Coast to Coast with Caroline Hide in New

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<v Speaker 1>York and Eva low in sentrances go.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Tech coming up.

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<v Speaker 3>Open Ai becomes the world's largest startup with a five

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<v Speaker 3>hundred billion dollar valuation following an employee share sale.

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<v Speaker 4>Plus Tesla's vehicle sales jumped to a worldwide record in

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<v Speaker 4>the third quarter, a surprise increase after several quarters of

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<v Speaker 4>sales slumps. How much did the ev tax credit exploration.

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<v Speaker 3>Helped, and how Microsoft aims to cope with a shortage

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<v Speaker 3>of AI data center capacity, striking deals with so called

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<v Speaker 3>neo clouds.

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<v Speaker 4>So first we check in on these publicly traded markets

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<v Speaker 4>that were at record highs clinging to them as we speak.

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<v Speaker 4>The NASAK one hundred is up but five points now. Notably,

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<v Speaker 4>we've got a wall of worry coming towards the markets

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<v Speaker 4>at the moment. But there have been this desire to

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<v Speaker 4>buy into chip stocks, in particular the open ai valuation

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<v Speaker 4>that we'll dig into, the idea of the contracts that

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<v Speaker 4>they're building with sk Heinex, with Samsung, all of that

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<v Speaker 4>had really helped lift the socks. I'm looking at that

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<v Speaker 4>at one point thirty percent, but really there's other stocks

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<v Speaker 4>that are dragging the overall benchmarks a little bit lower.

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<v Speaker 5>Edd.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, the part of the argument is that it's Tesla

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<v Speaker 3>that's doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 3>We had been higher pre market when the delivery numbers broke.

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<v Speaker 3>Four hundred and ninety seven ninety nine evs delivered in

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<v Speaker 3>the third quarter, an astonishing turnaround, a huge beat against consensus.

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<v Speaker 3>But as we've been talking about for a while now,

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<v Speaker 3>they started advertising in the quarter. They started emailing on

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<v Speaker 3>a daily basis, saying, by the way the federal tax

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<v Speaker 3>credit runs out, how big a fact was that that

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<v Speaker 3>it's an isolated quarter of an elevated proportion of sales.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's go to private markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Big piece of reporting from Bloomberg Shering Gafari open AI

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<v Speaker 3>five hundred billion dollar valuation based on employee share sale

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<v Speaker 3>to a really intro seen group of investors. Remember Sharen

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<v Speaker 3>broke this story first on August the sixth, But now

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<v Speaker 3>it's done and there's actually a lot of interesting data

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<v Speaker 3>in the report Caro about who opted to or not

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<v Speaker 3>to participate. If you're an employee that had two years

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<v Speaker 3>of holding the.

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<v Speaker 4>Shares and let's get straight to sharm Gafari extraordinary scoop

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<v Speaker 4>that first came in August. Now we get the real

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<v Speaker 4>details and perhaps those current employees and former employees not

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<v Speaker 4>setting as much as they could have done.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right.

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<v Speaker 6>So you know, again, this is a record valuation for

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<v Speaker 6>Open Eye and for just startups right now, surpassing SpaceX

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<v Speaker 6>as the most highly valued startup. That being said, there

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<v Speaker 6>was more. There could have been more units sold, is

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<v Speaker 6>what we're told. And actually employees shows not to take

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<v Speaker 6>up all of that potential share sale, so you know,

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<v Speaker 6>it could indicate that employees are feeling, you know, the

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<v Speaker 6>optimistic about the future of the company and that the

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<v Speaker 6>valuation could go even higher. But of course this is

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<v Speaker 6>an ongoing story and there are still a lot of

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<v Speaker 6>uncertainties as well in opening Ice future, including its ability

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<v Speaker 6>to go forward with the restructure.

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<v Speaker 3>When there is a tender or a secondary or any

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<v Speaker 3>kind of financial transaction. Sharene there's always a data room,

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<v Speaker 3>just take my word for it. And so I find

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<v Speaker 3>the group of investors here really interesting third parties that

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<v Speaker 3>were able to buy those shares from employees. Just run

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<v Speaker 3>us through the list and any that caught your eye.

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<v Speaker 6>That's right, so many of them were expected. We have Thrive,

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<v Speaker 6>also a former large investor, as well as SoftBank, another

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<v Speaker 6>major partner. We also have Abu, Abu, Dhab, MGX, Dragonear,

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<v Speaker 6>and t Row And you know, MGX is an interesting

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<v Speaker 6>one given we're seeing more money coming in from overseas,

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<v Speaker 6>from the Middle East into AI companies. And you know,

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<v Speaker 6>this is just an ongoing as I find an AI.

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<v Speaker 6>Once one investment closes, it's the beginning of another one.

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<v Speaker 6>So we can expect these sizes to just get bigger

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<v Speaker 6>and bigger in terms of funds going in and sales

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<v Speaker 6>being shares being seld.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, that's what's extraordinary is the fact that they

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<v Speaker 4>raised money fresh money from SoftBank back in March, and

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<v Speaker 4>the valuation is just spiraled even since then, staring even

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<v Speaker 4>as remind us of the data and the fundamentals. The

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<v Speaker 4>company remains unprofitable and at the moment, revenue is tiny

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<v Speaker 4>in comparison to say a Netflix, which is also worth

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<v Speaker 4>about five hundred billion dollars.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right.

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<v Speaker 6>So while we're seeing the revenue increase rapidly, they have

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<v Speaker 6>something like seven hundred million users. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 6>the company is also unprofitable, and that's because of the

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<v Speaker 6>large cost to fuel basically the development of AI. There's

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<v Speaker 6>huge data compute costs. Here are these unprecedented data centers

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<v Speaker 6>that they're building out, there are researchers.

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<v Speaker 5>All of that takes a lot of money.

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<v Speaker 6>So it's still a highly capital intensive, an unprofitable business,

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<v Speaker 6>even though the revenue is growing at a very fast rate.

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<v Speaker 3>Bembo Sharen Gafari, It's Dev Dave Open Ai Monday, and

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<v Speaker 3>I think we're going to be able to pose questions

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<v Speaker 3>that might give us some of the answers to what's

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<v Speaker 3>really going on top and bottom line at open Ai.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's pivot from the private market side to the public

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<v Speaker 3>public side because open AI's story is driving US equities

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<v Speaker 3>to fresh highs. We've seen some pullback since the show started,

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<v Speaker 3>but generally the idea was that the open ai valuation

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<v Speaker 3>signaled a lot of optimism for AI across those public names.

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<v Speaker 3>Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Lafetengla Investments, joins us

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<v Speaker 3>now for more. There's a lot of life in secondary markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Right sharm was running us through tro price participating in

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<v Speaker 3>that round. I know that this might not be your domain.

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<v Speaker 3>But what did you make of the open ai valuation?

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<v Speaker 3>And if someone came to you and said, Hey, Nancy,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm putting together an SPV or something like that, would

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<v Speaker 3>you try and get in on open ai at this

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<v Speaker 3>private level.

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<v Speaker 7>Yes, we would, yes, and we're actually in the process

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<v Speaker 7>of working with a firm to do just that. But

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<v Speaker 7>we're also interested in you know, SpaceX and XAI and

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<v Speaker 7>many of the other names that are still private, and

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<v Speaker 7>I think for retail investors it's an opportunity and then

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<v Speaker 7>of course for the insiders it provides liquidity at least

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<v Speaker 7>through the provider.

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<v Speaker 5>We're working with one.

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<v Speaker 3>One sec Marguerite, bring up the chart there it is okay,

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<v Speaker 3>so open ai five hundred billion dollar valuation, SpaceX number two,

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<v Speaker 3>four hundred billion, and then I don't see XAI in there,

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<v Speaker 3>but I reported that XAI is raising money at a

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<v Speaker 3>two hundred million dollar valuation. Of those three, what's your

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<v Speaker 3>top priority?

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<v Speaker 7>SpaceX is my greatest interest. I think we know the

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<v Speaker 7>AI game and there's a lot of ways to play it.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not a game, but the.

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<v Speaker 7>Opportunity and I really want to get more exposure to space.

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<v Speaker 7>So we just launched a fund a strategy that is

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<v Speaker 7>focused on all of the above quantum space, nuclear robotics,

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<v Speaker 7>and spaces of particular interest to us.

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<v Speaker 4>Fascinating that you're looking at basically these valuations in the

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<v Speaker 4>private side, as well as, of course all the exposure

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<v Speaker 4>that you build and the public side. Nancy, what draws you?

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<v Speaker 4>Is it just too hard to ignore when you're seeing

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<v Speaker 4>companies staying private for so much longer?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, well right, I mean, Caroline, we used to have

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<v Speaker 7>the Wilshire five thousand, and now it's the Wilshair thirty

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<v Speaker 7>five hundred. I think, you know, as an investor, my

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<v Speaker 7>job is to look around and try to figure out

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<v Speaker 7>ways to make money for my clients. When you're going

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<v Speaker 7>through a transformative technological revolution like we are, you get

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<v Speaker 7>these concentrations, you get higher than normal valuations. But that

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<v Speaker 7>is not to say this cannot continue for some time.

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<v Speaker 7>And as you know, I've drawn the analogy to the

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<v Speaker 7>nineteen nineties. I think the technologies we are seeing now

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<v Speaker 7>are much more robust than just eyeballs on a screen,

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<v Speaker 7>which was what we were measuring in the nineties. So

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<v Speaker 7>I'm excited about all the opportunity and really working hard

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<v Speaker 7>to try to figure out ways to gain exposure. Because

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<v Speaker 7>the private markets are open to a very lead group

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<v Speaker 7>of investors, certainly we want to open it up to

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<v Speaker 7>our clients as well.

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<v Speaker 4>Nazie, talk about the fundamentals that you like within these companies,

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<v Speaker 4>because yes, you're saying valuations can continue up into the

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<v Speaker 4>right for foreseeable future. You think it's underlying technology that

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<v Speaker 4>gets us there rather than the market being a rational

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<v Speaker 4>lesson in some sort of hype cycle.

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<v Speaker 7>Absolutely, so, just think back as far as Amazon. I mean,

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<v Speaker 7>that was a valuable lesson for me as a as

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<v Speaker 7>a value investor trained as a you know, buy when

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<v Speaker 7>things go down valuation matters. I could never figure out

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<v Speaker 7>how the company couldn't report earnings and continue to drive forward.

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<v Speaker 7>I think that, and so ultimately we became we participated

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<v Speaker 7>in the name and learned a lesson that during certain

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<v Speaker 7>periods of time, that's what you're going to see, and

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<v Speaker 7>you have to depend on management. You have to be

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<v Speaker 7>focused on the underlying fundamentals. And that's that's our job,

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<v Speaker 7>and that's why we have a team of analysts that

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<v Speaker 7>support me and the other portfolio managers at the firm.

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<v Speaker 7>So we're primarily focused on catalyst forout performance in the

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<v Speaker 7>soft site, we look at all the numbers that everybody

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<v Speaker 7>else looks at on the quantitative side, but qualitatively, we're

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<v Speaker 7>looking for catalyst for out performance and strong management teams,

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<v Speaker 7>and you can measure those over time. It's obviously a

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<v Speaker 7>subjective decision, but we spend a lot.

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<v Speaker 5>Of time on it.

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<v Speaker 3>Nancy, We're going to go very, very deep on Tesla

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<v Speaker 3>in the next segment. But actually, as a team, when

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<v Speaker 3>we were talking about today's show yesterday, your name came up, right,

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<v Speaker 3>you join us all the time. Four hundred and ninety

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<v Speaker 3>seven ninety nine vehicles delivered in the third quarter, a record.

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<v Speaker 3>The stock rose and now it's down almost two percent.

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<v Speaker 3>Just your reaction and to what extent you see the

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<v Speaker 3>expiry of the federal tax credit being the principal factor.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, I do think it's a principal factor.

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<v Speaker 7>And I mean I think there was some strength seen

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<v Speaker 7>in China which was good or at least less deterioration.

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<v Speaker 7>So I think that that is a rebound that we're

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<v Speaker 7>going to be watching and continuing to watch closely. But

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<v Speaker 7>for us, and I've said this to you, historically, we're

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<v Speaker 7>interested in the name because of the energy business, which

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<v Speaker 7>we've been talking about for two years, and I think

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<v Speaker 7>now people are sort of, you know, excited about that business.

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<v Speaker 7>We're interested, obviously, as everyone else is in FSD. They

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<v Speaker 7>seem to be seeing really robust improvements. It may not

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<v Speaker 7>be a linear acceleration. It may just be at one

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<v Speaker 7>point we see that FSD is at the levels we need,

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<v Speaker 7>and then they've got seven billion miles traveled and that

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<v Speaker 7>Dwarf's Weimo. I live in Weimo Land. You know, you

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<v Speaker 7>can't stop at a stoplight in Arizona without seeing four

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<v Speaker 7>or five of them. And Tesla's way ahead on that.

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<v Speaker 7>So they just need to catch up on the technology

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<v Speaker 7>and they will because they have the data. So we're

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<v Speaker 7>very excited about the new model Robotaxi, all of the others,

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<v Speaker 7>and then of course Optimists, which I'm counting on as

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<v Speaker 7>my home health care solution.

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<v Speaker 4>My kids asking me yesterday when we're going to be

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<v Speaker 4>getting a robot in the home, Nanci and I can

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<v Speaker 4>see that we're all waiting on tent to hoax. But

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<v Speaker 4>so too is the comp package for your musk. It's

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<v Speaker 4>tied to real delivereralies of Optimus of Robotaxes twenty million

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<v Speaker 4>evs on the roads.

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<v Speaker 2>Are you going to be voting in favor of that?

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<v Speaker 3>Oh?

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<v Speaker 7>Yes, absolutely, and the Ai you know, the XAI fundraise.

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<v Speaker 7>We would love to see the companies melt together and

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<v Speaker 7>get access to SpaceX and XAI. We'll see. I mean

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<v Speaker 7>that's me talking, not Elon, but we will definitely be

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<v Speaker 7>voting in favor. I love when incentives for the management

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<v Speaker 7>team or the visionary CEO are lined up with me

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<v Speaker 7>and my shareholders. So we're very excited about the future

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<v Speaker 7>of Tesla. And remember it doesn't go straight up. It's

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<v Speaker 7>a volatile name. We were buying at two forty in

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<v Speaker 7>the spring during the tariff tantrum. We will we will

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<v Speaker 7>buy again when stock dips down. But it's a six

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:02.760
<v Speaker 7>percent holding in our strategy, which is the macrocycle opportunities,

0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:05.079
<v Speaker 7>and then in our growth strategy it's four and a

0:12:05.120 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 7>half percent holding. So we're committed to the name, and

0:12:08.760 --> 0:12:12.280
<v Speaker 7>you know, we believe, we believe in Elon. Maybe I'll

0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:16.320
<v Speaker 7>get a T shirt made well when the space fun

0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:17.040
<v Speaker 7>goes live.

0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:20.240
<v Speaker 4>When you've got the money coming in for the private

0:12:20.840 --> 0:12:23.200
<v Speaker 4>funds as well, do join us. I mean you're always

0:12:23.240 --> 0:12:24.840
<v Speaker 4>joining us, and we love it and that's a Tangler

0:12:24.920 --> 0:12:28.520
<v Speaker 4>CEO C that's Tangler Investments. Stay well. Meanwhile, coming up,

0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.679
<v Speaker 4>we're diving for into Tesla, into the vehicle sales that

0:12:31.800 --> 0:12:34.040
<v Speaker 4>jump to a worldwide record and third quarter. I'm going

0:12:34.080 --> 0:12:36.239
<v Speaker 4>to be going into what's behind this, whether it's sustainable.

0:12:36.280 --> 0:12:37.960
<v Speaker 4>Stay with us. This is Bloomberg Tech.

0:12:45.720 --> 0:12:49.840
<v Speaker 3>US customers help drive Tesla's third quarter sales to a

0:12:49.920 --> 0:12:53.200
<v Speaker 3>record high as buyers rush to take advantage of federal

0:12:53.240 --> 0:12:55.640
<v Speaker 3>tax credits before they expire. I want to get out

0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.960
<v Speaker 3>to London and Bloomberg's Automotive.

0:12:58.120 --> 0:12:59.439
<v Speaker 2>Zar Craigtrude out.

0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 3>Data is really important here, Okay, third quarter four hundred

0:13:03.400 --> 0:13:08.920
<v Speaker 3>and ninety seven ninety nine vehicles. The expectation was we'd

0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.000
<v Speaker 3>see a drop year on year, even if it was

0:13:11.000 --> 0:13:15.240
<v Speaker 3>a sequential improvement. This this is an anomaly. This is

0:13:15.360 --> 0:13:17.880
<v Speaker 3>like something happened in the quarter. Just explain it.

0:13:19.440 --> 0:13:22.360
<v Speaker 8>Yeah, you know, I think this is a surprise if

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.320
<v Speaker 8>you're looking at the consensus and yet if you sort

0:13:25.320 --> 0:13:29.200
<v Speaker 8>of were watching closely to where an estimates were coming in.

0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:31.320
<v Speaker 8>Towards the very end of the month of September, a

0:13:31.360 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 8>lot of sales side analysts were saying, we think these

0:13:34.800 --> 0:13:36.840
<v Speaker 8>deliveries are going to be much higher than that. I

0:13:36.880 --> 0:13:39.440
<v Speaker 8>think even having said that, you know, this is a

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 8>surprise even for those who are you know, bullish going

0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:45.280
<v Speaker 8>into this print. And you know, you do have to

0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.680
<v Speaker 8>hand it to this company to have delivered more vehicles

0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.959
<v Speaker 8>than they ever have, even if there are some real

0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.920
<v Speaker 8>questions about whether there's some staying power to these numbers.

0:13:54.240 --> 0:13:57.079
<v Speaker 8>Without the seventy five hundred dollars tax credit in the US,

0:13:57.080 --> 0:14:00.439
<v Speaker 8>that's going to be you know, the I guess fourner

0:14:00.480 --> 0:14:04.040
<v Speaker 8>and twenty dollars question on the earnings.

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 4>Call in a few weeks for twenty Craig. I'm interested though,

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:09.680
<v Speaker 4>like you are, sat in the heart of the UK,

0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:15.400
<v Speaker 4>and indeed Europe has been against Tesla's basically we've seen

0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:18.080
<v Speaker 4>sales destruction over there in large part people blaming the

0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:21.280
<v Speaker 4>politics of Elon Musk. Is that still the sentiment that

0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.520
<v Speaker 4>you're seeing. Are you getting any other granular data that

0:14:23.560 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 4>shows that maybe other regions in the world have liked

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 4>the model wise and the upgrades.

0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:31.280
<v Speaker 8>Of late Yeah, I mean, I think in terms of

0:14:31.360 --> 0:14:33.560
<v Speaker 8>the way things have been trending in Europe, it's been

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:37.240
<v Speaker 8>very consistent. There's maybe some you know, kind of marginal

0:14:39.280 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 8>narrowing of the declines over here in Europe, but still

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.880
<v Speaker 8>substantially down in a market that is up substantially, and

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:50.520
<v Speaker 8>in China you've seen, you know, at best, shipments move

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:55.920
<v Speaker 8>sideways flat, you know, down by small percentages in a

0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:00.320
<v Speaker 8>market where you know, BYD and Jawmi and you know,

0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:03.440
<v Speaker 8>domestic players really are making a lot of noise. We did,

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.600
<v Speaker 8>you know, see just recently some loss of momentum on

0:15:06.680 --> 0:15:11.120
<v Speaker 8>BYD's part, but that's from a standpoint of really just

0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:15.200
<v Speaker 8>dominating their local markets. So sort of by process of elimination,

0:15:15.480 --> 0:15:18.480
<v Speaker 8>we really, you know, can can sort of come to

0:15:18.520 --> 0:15:22.680
<v Speaker 8>this conclusion that the US is really what drove.

0:15:22.440 --> 0:15:25.440
<v Speaker 2>This result for Tesla. We'll see to what extent.

0:15:25.920 --> 0:15:27.760
<v Speaker 8>You know, Elon Musk is willing to sort of get

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.120
<v Speaker 8>into that, but I think we've already heard from him

0:15:30.200 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 8>during the last earnings call that you know, this this

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:34.560
<v Speaker 8>could be a company that's in for a few rough

0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:38.040
<v Speaker 8>quarters as a result of this pullback of support from

0:15:38.080 --> 0:15:38.880
<v Speaker 8>the US government.

0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:42.200
<v Speaker 4>Really most crowdu down. Thank you as always for the

0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 4>thorough analysis. Let's stick with Tesla sales. Bring in Stephanie

0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:47.520
<v Speaker 4>Valdez Street. She is the director of Industry insights of

0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 4>Coxa Automotive and just the larger picture in the US.

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.080
<v Speaker 4>For Stephanie, it was but earlier in the week that

0:15:53.360 --> 0:15:56.000
<v Speaker 4>we saw Jim Farley, CEO of Ford saying the EV

0:15:56.160 --> 0:15:58.520
<v Speaker 4>market in the US is going to slump by half

0:15:58.840 --> 0:16:01.520
<v Speaker 4>because of the policy is currently being enacted here. And

0:16:01.680 --> 0:16:04.760
<v Speaker 4>meanwhile we see Tesla jump but because of that EV

0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:10.000
<v Speaker 4>tax credit expire, potentially, what is the forward looking analysis

0:16:10.040 --> 0:16:12.000
<v Speaker 4>of yours for US EV sales for Tesla?

0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, definitely, we knew Q three was going to be

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.640
<v Speaker 9>a record quarter, right driven by policy. Right, everyone created

0:16:18.640 --> 0:16:22.000
<v Speaker 9>a sense of urgency, whether it was dealers, OEMs, and

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 9>so consumers reacted. So we're probably going to reach about

0:16:25.800 --> 0:16:28.200
<v Speaker 9>four hundred and ten thousand, probably ten percent market share

0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:31.440
<v Speaker 9>in the US market, and Tesla has definitely taken advantage

0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:34.880
<v Speaker 9>of that, but once again, that was policy driven. Moving

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.400
<v Speaker 9>into Q four, we're going to see a slowdown. However,

0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:40.040
<v Speaker 9>I've already seen and you've probably seen some of the

0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:43.080
<v Speaker 9>manufacturers are going to continue a seventy five hundred dollars

0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:47.560
<v Speaker 9>credit going into Q four. On leasing, Hyundai mentioned they're

0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 9>going to reduce their Ionic five by you know, ninety

0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.000
<v Speaker 9>eight hundreds and twenty six model and continue to offer

0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:54.120
<v Speaker 9>the seventy five hundred.

0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 3>So just very specifically, Stephanie, in this quarter that's just

0:16:58.520 --> 0:17:03.080
<v Speaker 3>been reported. In the Tesla's case, specifically, you see evidence

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:05.480
<v Speaker 3>that the consumer knew that the federal tax credit was

0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:08.400
<v Speaker 3>running out and so took advantage of that to make

0:17:08.400 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 3>a decision and either purchase or lease a vehicle.

0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:15.480
<v Speaker 9>Oh definitely, Yeah, Like, I think the consumers became very

0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:18.200
<v Speaker 9>aware of this incentive. If you went to any online

0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:22.600
<v Speaker 9>search website, you saw that, you know, the tax credit

0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 9>was there, it was winding down, And I think definitely

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:29.280
<v Speaker 9>this sense of urgency created consumer reaction, and we're seeing

0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:31.280
<v Speaker 9>that in the data. The numbers are still coming in

0:17:31.320 --> 0:17:33.760
<v Speaker 9>for September in the US, but definitely going to be

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 9>a record quarter and you know, highest market share to date.

0:17:38.400 --> 0:17:40.520
<v Speaker 3>Go There's so many things that I want to poke

0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:44.199
<v Speaker 3>around at. Like what sources inside Tesla told me in

0:17:44.280 --> 0:17:46.439
<v Speaker 3>recent weeks was like, hey, have you been noticing the

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.960
<v Speaker 3>advertising we've been doing on YouTube and Instagram, something that

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 3>Elon Musk historically is completely against. But I'm also like,

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:57.960
<v Speaker 3>almost five hundred thousand vehicles in the quarter. Do you

0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:00.359
<v Speaker 3>see that as just being a one time thing like

0:18:00.720 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 3>would this be replicated because it has to if he's

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.440
<v Speaker 3>going to deliver twenty million vehicles over a ten year period.

0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.200
<v Speaker 3>That's the math five hundred thousand a quarter.

0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:12.640
<v Speaker 9>Yeah, I think it's going to be challenging, right because

0:18:12.680 --> 0:18:15.000
<v Speaker 9>I think just I think a lot of consumers that

0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:19.520
<v Speaker 9>were considering buying a vehicle EV specifically pulled ahead bought

0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:22.000
<v Speaker 9>it in Q three because of the incentives, and so

0:18:22.080 --> 0:18:24.040
<v Speaker 9>I think just we're going to see that slowdown coming

0:18:24.240 --> 0:18:27.000
<v Speaker 9>Q four and we'll start to see the market stabilize.

0:18:27.040 --> 0:18:30.400
<v Speaker 9>What's that natural demand for evs? And I think it's

0:18:30.440 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 9>going to be dependent on for Tesla, right once again

0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.960
<v Speaker 9>having some product, new product that's going to resonate with consumers.

0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.200
<v Speaker 9>And then I think the other challenge for Tesla is

0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:43.359
<v Speaker 9>navigating the changes in the regulatary policy. You know that

0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.919
<v Speaker 9>revenue that've gotten from carbon credit will soon disappear, and

0:18:46.960 --> 0:18:49.919
<v Speaker 9>so how do they navigate that? And once again, I

0:18:49.920 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 9>think they do have some opportunities with energy storage. They

0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:55.960
<v Speaker 9>have their AI ROBOTAXI, so they have stuff in play,

0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:59.600
<v Speaker 9>but it's navigating the short term when demand goes down

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 9>and have I not the product available, new product that

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 9>resonates with customers.

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.040
<v Speaker 4>It's definite go global because we can with you. And

0:19:06.080 --> 0:19:08.680
<v Speaker 4>what's so interesting is while the EV market is getting

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:11.199
<v Speaker 4>smaller here in the US as a policy, China is

0:19:11.240 --> 0:19:14.880
<v Speaker 4>going up into the right. Europe it's expanding. But Tesla's

0:19:14.880 --> 0:19:17.560
<v Speaker 4>foothold has not been Can they turn that around?

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:20.600
<v Speaker 9>I think they can if they continue. I mean the

0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:23.560
<v Speaker 9>model why. I think the sixth three row or the

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:26.000
<v Speaker 9>sixty model why is really doing well in China now.

0:19:26.040 --> 0:19:28.160
<v Speaker 9>I think if they continue to, you know, once again

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:31.639
<v Speaker 9>have new product. But I think the Chinese OEMs, you

0:19:31.720 --> 0:19:35.080
<v Speaker 9>have voids shell me that are really gaining market share,

0:19:35.400 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 9>and I think Tesla has stiff competition. So I think

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.960
<v Speaker 9>it's going to come down to having product and being

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:42.800
<v Speaker 9>able to resonate that with the consumer.

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 2>There definitely.

0:19:43.680 --> 0:19:46.600
<v Speaker 3>Voudez Tred, director of Industry in Sitess Auto Motive, we

0:19:46.640 --> 0:19:47.680
<v Speaker 3>really appreciate having you.

0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:50.040
<v Speaker 2>On the show. CARO like check me on this.

0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.200
<v Speaker 3>When we spoke to Robin Denholms, she was crystal clear

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:55.359
<v Speaker 3>like the twenty million EV sales targets there for a

0:19:55.400 --> 0:19:58.840
<v Speaker 3>reason I went onto the Tesla I our website. All

0:19:58.840 --> 0:20:01.119
<v Speaker 3>of their factories around the world are capable of building

0:20:01.119 --> 0:20:03.359
<v Speaker 3>two million vehicles a year, so he's going to have

0:20:03.400 --> 0:20:05.840
<v Speaker 3>to hit five hundred thousand every quarter.

0:20:06.760 --> 0:20:08.320
<v Speaker 2>Like, am I understanding that? Right?

0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:10.879
<v Speaker 4>Delivery is what I'm interested? Is production pulled back a

0:20:10.920 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 4>bit as well? And tell us is that about the

0:20:14.160 --> 0:20:16.800
<v Speaker 4>change in the way that they're moving to different vehicles

0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 4>and they thinks about increasing improving model wise and model threes.

0:20:20.080 --> 0:20:23.440
<v Speaker 3>The data not in this press release on quarterly deliveries

0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:27.600
<v Speaker 3>is inventory and inventory days and you know, look at that.

0:20:27.680 --> 0:20:29.680
<v Speaker 3>Actually you can you can kind of work out using

0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:33.080
<v Speaker 3>satellite imagery how many vehicles are really hot on a

0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:36.760
<v Speaker 3>lot exactly. But yeah, and then the sheer reaction is

0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.400
<v Speaker 3>kind of weird, right, you know. I guess people are

0:20:39.720 --> 0:20:41.480
<v Speaker 3>saying this was a one time thing because of the

0:20:41.480 --> 0:20:42.280
<v Speaker 3>tax credit.

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.919
<v Speaker 4>And the shares have done rather well. We maybe have

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:53.640
<v Speaker 4>a little bit of a profit taking moment. It's time

0:20:53.680 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 4>now for talking tech and first up AI language platform

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.880
<v Speaker 4>deep l It is said to be exploring in potential

0:20:59.160 --> 0:21:02.320
<v Speaker 4>us ipo now. According to sources, the Google Translate rival

0:21:02.320 --> 0:21:05.480
<v Speaker 4>based in Europe, has held preliminary discussions with advisors on

0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:08.639
<v Speaker 4>the listing. The possibility of share sales taking place as

0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:12.000
<v Speaker 4>soon as next year. Plus a notorious ransomware group have

0:21:12.119 --> 0:21:15.280
<v Speaker 4>claimed to install in data from a suite of Oracle apps.

0:21:15.400 --> 0:21:15.520
<v Speaker 10>Now.

0:21:15.520 --> 0:21:18.200
<v Speaker 4>The hackers claimed to have reached Oracle's e business suite,

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.640
<v Speaker 4>giving them access to finances, supply chains, and customer relationships.

0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:24.680
<v Speaker 4>In one case, the group has demanded a ransom after

0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.520
<v Speaker 4>fifty million dollars and then Musk and X they have

0:21:28.640 --> 0:21:31.600
<v Speaker 4>settled with three former senior Twitter executives who said that

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:34.199
<v Speaker 4>they were wrongly denied fifty three million dollars worth in

0:21:34.320 --> 0:21:37.560
<v Speaker 4>severance after the takeover. Now the deal comes six weeks

0:21:37.600 --> 0:21:40.520
<v Speaker 4>after Musk and X moved to settle a separate class

0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:43.840
<v Speaker 4>action alleging six thousand laid off workers will own as

0:21:43.880 --> 0:21:47.520
<v Speaker 4>much as five hundred million dollars at least in severance

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:48.960
<v Speaker 4>ed okay.

0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:52.639
<v Speaker 3>Coming up on the program, Microsoft copes with data center

0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:56.600
<v Speaker 3>shortages through a thirty three billion dollar deal with Nebus Group.

0:21:56.640 --> 0:21:58.639
<v Speaker 3>The idea is that if you can't do it with

0:21:58.680 --> 0:22:02.119
<v Speaker 3>your own gear looked. The Neo Cloud stock down one

0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:04.719
<v Speaker 3>point six percent in the market. Nebuus is up higher.

0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:07.760
<v Speaker 3>But there's also a bigger picture story at play in

0:22:07.760 --> 0:22:10.680
<v Speaker 3>the market today about how optimistic or not we are

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:21.600
<v Speaker 3>about AI. This is Bloomberg Tech. Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech.

0:22:21.640 --> 0:22:23.760
<v Speaker 3>I'm going to take another look at Tesla. Look, we're

0:22:23.800 --> 0:22:26.600
<v Speaker 3>down when the numbers hit in pre market. We were

0:22:26.680 --> 0:22:30.679
<v Speaker 3>up significantly almost five hundred thousand vehicles delivered in the

0:22:30.720 --> 0:22:33.520
<v Speaker 3>third quarter. But it's a one time anomaly and it's

0:22:33.600 --> 0:22:37.240
<v Speaker 3>driven by consumers, particularly in the United States, flocking to

0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:40.560
<v Speaker 3>Tesla vehicles because of the expiring of a federal tax credit.

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:43.320
<v Speaker 3>It's also stocked that was up twelve percent year to date,

0:22:43.400 --> 0:22:45.960
<v Speaker 3>had a sort of a rebound from April lows, and

0:22:46.000 --> 0:22:48.160
<v Speaker 3>maybe there's a bit of pulling back here. I don't

0:22:48.200 --> 0:22:50.879
<v Speaker 3>really know, but the consensus seems to be this was

0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 3>a one time deal and what was a record corder

0:22:53.040 --> 0:22:55.320
<v Speaker 3>for deliveries, and the future isn't even about.

0:22:55.040 --> 0:22:57.000
<v Speaker 2>Cars, is it. I'm also looking at Microsoft.

0:22:57.080 --> 0:22:59.960
<v Speaker 3>This is kind of interesting because there's some newsflow about Microsoft.

0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:02.320
<v Speaker 3>We're about to get to it, but the early part

0:23:02.320 --> 0:23:05.800
<v Speaker 3>of trading in the session was actually about open AI's

0:23:05.880 --> 0:23:09.399
<v Speaker 3>valuation five hundred billion dollars per Bloomberg reporting in a

0:23:09.440 --> 0:23:12.679
<v Speaker 3>secondary and the simple logic that it's a signal of

0:23:12.720 --> 0:23:15.560
<v Speaker 3>optimism for AI broadly, and it carries a lot of

0:23:15.600 --> 0:23:18.080
<v Speaker 3>names with it, we're now down one point six percent Carroc.

0:23:18.440 --> 0:23:20.680
<v Speaker 3>There's also the neocloud deals and.

0:23:20.640 --> 0:23:22.720
<v Speaker 4>We've got to dig into that because it's a fascinating

0:23:22.760 --> 0:23:26.200
<v Speaker 4>perspective of just the rampant demand for AI compute right

0:23:26.240 --> 0:23:29.000
<v Speaker 4>now across the world. And to break that the story down,

0:23:29.000 --> 0:23:32.160
<v Speaker 4>it's Bloomberg's Brodie Ford who is articulated and found out

0:23:32.800 --> 0:23:35.800
<v Speaker 4>that basically there's been thirty three billion dollars spent by

0:23:35.960 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 4>Microsoft on neo clouds. You're talking European players like n Scale, Nebeus.

0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:44.160
<v Speaker 4>There's also local player core Weave. Why would the AI

0:23:44.280 --> 0:23:48.960
<v Speaker 4>data center like render outer of that we all know

0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:50.719
<v Speaker 4>for asu're be turning to others.

0:23:51.080 --> 0:23:52.840
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, it's kind of funky, right, It's like if I

0:23:52.880 --> 0:23:54.920
<v Speaker 10>was paying somebody to write stories and I was still

0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:58.760
<v Speaker 10>writing stories. I mean, it's like, essentially, because we have

0:23:58.920 --> 0:24:02.640
<v Speaker 10>huge capacity strains, right, Microsoft needs to get as many

0:24:02.720 --> 0:24:06.440
<v Speaker 10>chips online as it can, both for its customers itself

0:24:06.640 --> 0:24:09.560
<v Speaker 10>and open AI, and it's needing to kind of pull

0:24:09.600 --> 0:24:12.200
<v Speaker 10>every single lever it can, and so it's emerged as

0:24:12.240 --> 0:24:14.800
<v Speaker 10>a major customer for all of these names like the

0:24:14.800 --> 0:24:17.879
<v Speaker 10>core weaves and the nebuuses which have become you know,

0:24:18.080 --> 0:24:19.760
<v Speaker 10>very newsy in recent months.

0:24:20.440 --> 0:24:24.000
<v Speaker 3>It's like managing assets, right, and you know the point

0:24:24.040 --> 0:24:27.600
<v Speaker 3>of a neocloud is it's dedicated to AI, either training

0:24:27.680 --> 0:24:31.040
<v Speaker 3>or influence and you know storage running other software.

0:24:31.160 --> 0:24:32.120
<v Speaker 2>You know, that's a different thing.

0:24:32.359 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 3>Talls me about the figure of thirty three billion dollars though, like,

0:24:34.880 --> 0:24:37.160
<v Speaker 3>is that news? Is it something that we were able

0:24:37.160 --> 0:24:40.280
<v Speaker 3>to work out? Because Microsoft doesn't disclose it in like

0:24:40.359 --> 0:24:41.800
<v Speaker 3>quarterly earnings or something like that.

0:24:41.920 --> 0:24:45.040
<v Speaker 10>So Microsoft has just kind of disclosed it in piecemeal ways,

0:24:45.160 --> 0:24:47.560
<v Speaker 10>and likely it is going to be much higher than

0:24:47.560 --> 0:24:50.560
<v Speaker 10>that thirty three. What we have been able to discover

0:24:50.800 --> 0:24:53.760
<v Speaker 10>is what this capacity is actually being used for. And

0:24:53.840 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 10>in many cases it's for Microsoft to build their own

0:24:56.680 --> 0:25:00.600
<v Speaker 10>AI models. And that's surprising because it's there's a larger

0:25:00.600 --> 0:25:03.640
<v Speaker 10>amount of investment in their own internal AI teams than

0:25:03.680 --> 0:25:07.080
<v Speaker 10>many had realized. And the points to them saying, man,

0:25:07.119 --> 0:25:09.800
<v Speaker 10>we better catch up with the open eyes and anthropics

0:25:09.800 --> 0:25:11.639
<v Speaker 10>and have our own models on hand, and we're going

0:25:11.640 --> 0:25:13.000
<v Speaker 10>to use the neo clouds to do it.

0:25:13.040 --> 0:25:15.800
<v Speaker 4>And Mostphah Sulliman, who came from deep Mind, went to

0:25:15.840 --> 0:25:20.000
<v Speaker 4>Microsoft with an inflection being bought in this rather odd way.

0:25:20.359 --> 0:25:23.480
<v Speaker 4>He's the man behind the consumer AI offering. He's I mean,

0:25:23.520 --> 0:25:26.200
<v Speaker 4>you've found out that basically the first larger language model

0:25:26.240 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 4>they're building internally under him been using care Weave's assets

0:25:29.800 --> 0:25:30.640
<v Speaker 4>over in Oregon.

0:25:30.680 --> 0:25:32.960
<v Speaker 3>I think it is, which is another way of saying

0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:35.160
<v Speaker 3>that're using Nvidia Gear to do it.

0:25:35.280 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, using basically via core Weave. But also what's interesting

0:25:39.680 --> 0:25:42.920
<v Speaker 4>is the numbers that you have to orientate yourself around,

0:25:42.960 --> 0:25:45.800
<v Speaker 4>because basically it allows Amy Hood not to have to

0:25:45.800 --> 0:25:46.920
<v Speaker 4>write this all as KPEX.

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:49.600
<v Speaker 10>That's a really important point, right If you buy a

0:25:49.640 --> 0:25:53.040
<v Speaker 10>bunch of servers, now you have to appreciate them. Now

0:25:53.080 --> 0:25:56.720
<v Speaker 10>it's on your capital expenditures, not you're operating, and investors

0:25:56.760 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 10>want to see a good balance there. And you know,

0:25:58.840 --> 0:26:01.800
<v Speaker 10>Microsoft's then able to one's surrending from neal clouds to

0:26:01.880 --> 0:26:04.840
<v Speaker 10>say if in five years we actually don't really need

0:26:04.880 --> 0:26:07.800
<v Speaker 10>that many GB three hundreds, would rather use more Vera Rubins,

0:26:08.480 --> 0:26:10.359
<v Speaker 10>bye bye, We don't need a deal with all these

0:26:10.400 --> 0:26:13.040
<v Speaker 10>servers or you don't have necessarily a use for That's

0:26:13.080 --> 0:26:14.600
<v Speaker 10>what it allows them to do.

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:19.000
<v Speaker 3>Potentially, Brody thrown around your GB three hundreds if there

0:26:18.840 --> 0:26:21.760
<v Speaker 3>are rubebins appreciate the reforming.

0:26:21.440 --> 0:26:23.600
<v Speaker 4>At has he bench pressed them, though that is a

0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:24.760
<v Speaker 4>question for.

0:26:24.760 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 3>Those uninitiated in video. Once, let me pick up an

0:26:28.160 --> 0:26:30.560
<v Speaker 3>h A DGX, which is an eighty pound We'll get

0:26:30.560 --> 0:26:33.160
<v Speaker 3>to it another time. Let's talk about the investor perspective

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:36.560
<v Speaker 3>of Brian Kirshman, GQG Partner's portfolio manager joins us Now.

0:26:36.680 --> 0:26:41.720
<v Speaker 3>Gkg's portfolios have recently turned significantly underweight Tech on concerns

0:26:42.119 --> 0:26:45.600
<v Speaker 3>of deteriorating fundamentals, and a part of what Brody was discussing, right.

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:48.120
<v Speaker 3>I know that we can talk about Microsoft here because

0:26:48.119 --> 0:26:51.719
<v Speaker 3>there's some exposure in the funds, but the idea that

0:26:51.760 --> 0:26:54.080
<v Speaker 3>you rely on the neo clouds so it doesn't show

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:56.760
<v Speaker 3>up on the balance sheet in the capex. What was

0:26:56.800 --> 0:26:58.520
<v Speaker 3>your sort of reaction to hearing that?

0:27:00.160 --> 0:27:02.440
<v Speaker 11>So, I think what it speaks to from a Microsoft

0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.760
<v Speaker 11>perspective is sort of that Capex sort of notion where

0:27:05.840 --> 0:27:08.280
<v Speaker 11>you don't necessarily want to spend all of your capacs

0:27:08.320 --> 0:27:10.880
<v Speaker 11>on sort of an asset that could depreciator. It may

0:27:11.000 --> 0:27:12.960
<v Speaker 11>not necessarily be as advantageous for you on a go

0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:15.080
<v Speaker 11>forward basis. There's a lot of things that are evolving

0:27:15.560 --> 0:27:18.840
<v Speaker 11>really quickly when it comes down to these things, but

0:27:18.880 --> 0:27:20.520
<v Speaker 11>if I were to take a step back and you

0:27:20.560 --> 0:27:22.680
<v Speaker 11>had mentioned sort of we've become a little bit more

0:27:22.960 --> 0:27:26.640
<v Speaker 11>as cautious, so to speak, on sort of these names

0:27:26.640 --> 0:27:29.000
<v Speaker 11>in general and from an AI perspective, And I think

0:27:29.000 --> 0:27:30.920
<v Speaker 11>one of the reasons for that is there's been a

0:27:31.000 --> 0:27:33.080
<v Speaker 11>whole lot of spending on the capack side of things,

0:27:33.119 --> 0:27:35.600
<v Speaker 11>six hundred billion dollars in spending in CAPEX, and really,

0:27:35.600 --> 0:27:37.960
<v Speaker 11>if you take out the infrastructure spending side of this,

0:27:38.320 --> 0:27:40.639
<v Speaker 11>there's only been about thirty billion dollars in revenue that

0:27:40.640 --> 0:27:43.520
<v Speaker 11>have been generated off of this. So our issue here

0:27:43.640 --> 0:27:45.359
<v Speaker 11>is that there is a lack of headroom sort of

0:27:45.440 --> 0:27:47.640
<v Speaker 11>returns that are coming through on a lot of these

0:27:47.640 --> 0:27:50.119
<v Speaker 11>types of businesses over the course of time. Now, Microsoft,

0:27:50.160 --> 0:27:52.920
<v Speaker 11>to its credit, has a software business. They have sort

0:27:52.920 --> 0:27:54.720
<v Speaker 11>of steady earnings. They have been able to deliver some

0:27:54.880 --> 0:27:57.280
<v Speaker 11>decent results over the course of time, But we are

0:27:57.320 --> 0:27:59.600
<v Speaker 11>becoming more skeptical about sort of a lot of things

0:27:59.640 --> 0:28:02.200
<v Speaker 11>on the A side where these returns coming from you,

0:28:02.359 --> 0:28:03.480
<v Speaker 11>the open AI in particular.

0:28:03.560 --> 0:28:05.600
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I'm sorry, I mean, Brian, we're looking at a

0:28:05.640 --> 0:28:08.359
<v Speaker 4>note that your team put out September the eleventh. You

0:28:08.440 --> 0:28:11.240
<v Speaker 4>rang that alarm bell basically saying, we believe that the

0:28:11.240 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 4>sector has a significant inflection point and everyone's making a

0:28:15.280 --> 0:28:17.680
<v Speaker 4>one way better as you see it on ai Mania,

0:28:18.320 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 4>and they're ignoring the alarming fundamentals. For you, the alarming

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.520
<v Speaker 4>fundamentals are that there is a lack of revenue today,

0:28:24.680 --> 0:28:27.239
<v Speaker 4>is it not? Therefore, can you not just make that

0:28:27.240 --> 0:28:30.760
<v Speaker 4>bet that eventually open ai will make three hundred billion

0:28:30.840 --> 0:28:33.480
<v Speaker 4>dollars worth in revenue by twenty thirty. That vindicates the

0:28:33.480 --> 0:28:35.480
<v Speaker 4>amount that they have to spend on all this compute.

0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:38.160
<v Speaker 11>So I think it becomes hard because if you actually

0:28:38.200 --> 0:28:40.680
<v Speaker 11>look at the data behind the set, look at open ai,

0:28:40.800 --> 0:28:42.920
<v Speaker 11>and they have about a two percent conversion rate in

0:28:43.040 --> 0:28:45.080
<v Speaker 11>terms of people that actually want to pay for the service.

0:28:45.160 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 11>That means ninety eight percent of people that use open

0:28:47.480 --> 0:28:50.200
<v Speaker 11>ai aren't actually paying for it. So now they have

0:28:50.280 --> 0:28:53.680
<v Speaker 11>seven hundred million users globally, about half of those are

0:28:53.680 --> 0:28:56.280
<v Speaker 11>coming from the emerging markets. And what's interesting there if

0:28:56.320 --> 0:28:58.800
<v Speaker 11>you think about the unit economics of sort of cloud

0:28:59.120 --> 0:29:01.280
<v Speaker 11>and I'm sorry, sort of the ai sort of side

0:29:01.320 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 11>of things, is that this isn't like SaaS. So this

0:29:04.960 --> 0:29:07.360
<v Speaker 11>isn't like a CRM business where you add additional users

0:29:07.360 --> 0:29:09.240
<v Speaker 11>and it all sort of that revenue drops to the

0:29:09.240 --> 0:29:11.800
<v Speaker 11>bottom line. There is a high cost to compute that

0:29:11.800 --> 0:29:13.840
<v Speaker 11>comes along with this, So you need to generate some

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:16.520
<v Speaker 11>sort of revenues off of each one of these users. Now,

0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:19.760
<v Speaker 11>with half of that user base coming from the emerging markets,

0:29:19.760 --> 0:29:22.880
<v Speaker 11>a significant chunk coming from India. For example, if I

0:29:22.880 --> 0:29:26.120
<v Speaker 11>can get a five G telephone plan within India for

0:29:26.240 --> 0:29:28.040
<v Speaker 11>less than ten dollars a month, do I really think

0:29:28.080 --> 0:29:30.000
<v Speaker 11>that folks are going to pay twenty dollars a month

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:32.080
<v Speaker 11>for a subscription to chagbt?

0:29:32.240 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 2>Okay, here we go.

0:29:33.200 --> 0:29:35.440
<v Speaker 3>I like this because we're I think we're looking at

0:29:35.440 --> 0:29:38.320
<v Speaker 3>the same data sets. So the top story today is

0:29:38.400 --> 0:29:41.120
<v Speaker 3>open ai being valued at five hundred billion dollars on

0:29:41.400 --> 0:29:45.480
<v Speaker 3>the latest secondary round. But the big question here is

0:29:45.480 --> 0:29:48.800
<v Speaker 3>is where the future for open ai lays on subscriptions

0:29:48.880 --> 0:29:51.280
<v Speaker 3>or on enterprise. The data point that I look at

0:29:51.360 --> 0:29:52.880
<v Speaker 3>is that it has a user base. You know, it's

0:29:52.920 --> 0:29:55.520
<v Speaker 3>like seven hundred million a monthly, right, Caro, how much

0:29:55.560 --> 0:29:59.640
<v Speaker 3>of that user base is free and then converted to

0:29:59.680 --> 0:30:02.200
<v Speaker 3>being a paying subscribe Because that kind of answers all

0:30:02.200 --> 0:30:02.920
<v Speaker 3>your questions.

0:30:03.960 --> 0:30:06.320
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, So that's exactly the stat that I was referring

0:30:06.360 --> 0:30:08.680
<v Speaker 11>to from what we've seen, only about two percent of

0:30:08.720 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 11>those folks actually convert over to being paying users, which

0:30:12.560 --> 0:30:15.560
<v Speaker 11>means two percent yes, And so that means that ninety

0:30:15.600 --> 0:30:17.560
<v Speaker 11>eight percent of folks that are using this actually don't

0:30:17.600 --> 0:30:21.280
<v Speaker 11>find enough value to actually sort of spend money on this. Now,

0:30:21.320 --> 0:30:23.040
<v Speaker 11>going back to that India data point that I was

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:25.760
<v Speaker 11>referencing earlier, if you think about those folks and you

0:30:25.840 --> 0:30:27.840
<v Speaker 11>need to sort of charge call it twenty dollars a

0:30:27.840 --> 0:30:30.320
<v Speaker 11>month for some sort of subscription to make this break

0:30:30.360 --> 0:30:34.200
<v Speaker 11>even profitability or even come close to that. In India,

0:30:34.440 --> 0:30:36.440
<v Speaker 11>you have you know, Barthi Airtel that has a deal

0:30:36.440 --> 0:30:39.600
<v Speaker 11>with Perplexity that offers this service for free across parties.

0:30:40.000 --> 0:30:42.600
<v Speaker 11>So it becomes really hard to see where the monetization

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:45.120
<v Speaker 11>path comes on a lot of these things over the

0:30:45.120 --> 0:30:47.320
<v Speaker 11>course of time. Now, the other side of this is

0:30:47.360 --> 0:30:50.040
<v Speaker 11>on the enterprise side. So a lot of people say, okay, well,

0:30:50.040 --> 0:30:52.200
<v Speaker 11>maybe it's more of a B to B sales. And

0:30:52.240 --> 0:30:54.240
<v Speaker 11>there's a lot of things that people are investigating or

0:30:54.280 --> 0:30:56.280
<v Speaker 11>looking at from the enterprise side in terms of I

0:30:56.280 --> 0:31:00.600
<v Speaker 11>can use AI to get efficiencies and things like that study.

0:31:00.680 --> 0:31:02.880
<v Speaker 11>I think we all know that by now being quoted

0:31:02.920 --> 0:31:04.840
<v Speaker 11>in terms of the lack of sort of effectiveness, and

0:31:04.880 --> 0:31:07.720
<v Speaker 11>a lot of those We've talked to other tech consultants recently.

0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.200
<v Speaker 11>In fact, one one of the big three consultant firms,

0:31:10.480 --> 0:31:12.680
<v Speaker 11>so that eighty five percent of the projects that they're

0:31:12.720 --> 0:31:15.120
<v Speaker 11>working on, so the four hundred projects they've been done

0:31:15.160 --> 0:31:16.840
<v Speaker 11>on a year to day basis, eighty five percent of

0:31:16.880 --> 0:31:18.800
<v Speaker 11>those projects were absolutely useless.

0:31:18.800 --> 0:31:21.160
<v Speaker 5>I said, fifteen percent generates some sort of benefit.

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:25.600
<v Speaker 4>You're literally sort of echoing exactly the conversation that we

0:31:25.760 --> 0:31:30.640
<v Speaker 4>had with Synthesia's CEO founder yesterday, saying basically, only about

0:31:30.640 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 4>fifteen percent or even vainly working, and only five percent

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:36.840
<v Speaker 4>actually working well. But Brian, can you not think that

0:31:37.000 --> 0:31:40.520
<v Speaker 4>eventually they will work? And that's actually more to implementation

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:44.400
<v Speaker 4>issues rather than actually the fact that they're not adding value.

0:31:45.440 --> 0:31:47.440
<v Speaker 11>So I think you have to show me sort of

0:31:47.480 --> 0:31:50.240
<v Speaker 11>the math and the monetization and then the pathway for

0:31:50.280 --> 0:31:53.040
<v Speaker 11>that working. There's a lot of data organization that needs

0:31:53.040 --> 0:31:54.680
<v Speaker 11>to happen. There's a lot of things that need to

0:31:54.680 --> 0:31:57.040
<v Speaker 11>happen to get to that point. And what we're seeing

0:31:57.040 --> 0:31:59.120
<v Speaker 11>in terms of large language models is we're kind of

0:31:59.120 --> 0:32:01.360
<v Speaker 11>peeking out in terms of what the capabilities are, and

0:32:01.480 --> 0:32:04.160
<v Speaker 11>you saw that sort of transitioning from GPT four to

0:32:04.240 --> 0:32:08.280
<v Speaker 11>GPT five. It's not simply you throw more compute at

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:10.920
<v Speaker 11>the problem and you solve bigger and more complex large

0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:13.720
<v Speaker 11>language models. There's more post training types of things that

0:32:13.760 --> 0:32:15.640
<v Speaker 11>are coming through, and you're seeing that the models are

0:32:15.680 --> 0:32:18.400
<v Speaker 11>actually peeking out in terms of their effectiveness. And at

0:32:18.440 --> 0:32:22.000
<v Speaker 11>the end of the day, these are extrapolators, so you're

0:32:22.080 --> 0:32:23.960
<v Speaker 11>guessing what the next letter is, what the next word

0:32:24.040 --> 0:32:26.240
<v Speaker 11>is based on a large training set. I can't think

0:32:26.320 --> 0:32:28.440
<v Speaker 11>for you, and it can't sort of, you know, make

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:30.680
<v Speaker 11>those decisions for you. And I think you're starting to

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:33.000
<v Speaker 11>see that within the enterprise side of things. Now to

0:32:33.040 --> 0:32:36.320
<v Speaker 11>pivot to an even bigger question here is where has

0:32:36.400 --> 0:32:39.440
<v Speaker 11>this spending actually come through and where are we actually

0:32:39.440 --> 0:32:41.800
<v Speaker 11>seeing the money spent. And that is actually more on

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:44.680
<v Speaker 11>the hyperscaler side of things, so actually providing the cloud

0:32:44.760 --> 0:32:47.880
<v Speaker 11>services where the data is coming through and where you're

0:32:47.880 --> 0:32:50.000
<v Speaker 11>paying for it on the cloud side of things, and

0:32:50.040 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 11>this is also fairly concerned.

0:32:51.840 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 3>I'm sorry to jump in because we'll run out of time.

0:32:54.440 --> 0:32:57.280
<v Speaker 3>That linked to that, including the top line growth discussion,

0:32:57.520 --> 0:33:00.960
<v Speaker 3>what we've asked private Market and public MARKETATIST Week is

0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:03.840
<v Speaker 3>their assessment of the role debt is playing in all

0:33:03.880 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 3>of these infrastructure projects and how worried or not one

0:33:06.960 --> 0:33:07.920
<v Speaker 3>should be about that.

0:33:09.360 --> 0:33:10.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so debt or nodebt.

0:33:11.480 --> 0:33:13.120
<v Speaker 11>One of the points that I was trying to make

0:33:13.160 --> 0:33:15.840
<v Speaker 11>earlier was that if you look at the pricing dynamics

0:33:15.840 --> 0:33:18.600
<v Speaker 11>within cloud, they're coming under a lot of pressure and

0:33:18.640 --> 0:33:21.120
<v Speaker 11>there's a lot of increased competition that's coming through, and

0:33:21.120 --> 0:33:23.040
<v Speaker 11>I think that's where we're really struggling on a lot

0:33:23.040 --> 0:33:25.440
<v Speaker 11>of these things. Or you have Oracle coming in and

0:33:25.600 --> 0:33:28.840
<v Speaker 11>undercutting price by forty to seventy percent on a lot

0:33:28.880 --> 0:33:31.680
<v Speaker 11>of these enterprise deals, and you're seeing that dragging down

0:33:31.680 --> 0:33:33.440
<v Speaker 11>in terms of the pricing a lot of across a

0:33:33.440 --> 0:33:35.760
<v Speaker 11>lot of the cloud players, including like an AWS and

0:33:35.800 --> 0:33:38.640
<v Speaker 11>things like that. So it becomes a less profitable venture.

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:41.760
<v Speaker 11>The switching costs are becoming a little bit lower, and

0:33:41.960 --> 0:33:44.440
<v Speaker 11>the economics aren't quite as good. It's becoming more commoditized,

0:33:44.480 --> 0:33:46.400
<v Speaker 11>and that's where we really struggle because there's a whole

0:33:46.440 --> 0:33:49.000
<v Speaker 11>host of investments that's happening in this area and it's

0:33:49.040 --> 0:33:52.160
<v Speaker 11>becoming increasingly commoditized. Similar to the fiber build out, so

0:33:52.200 --> 0:33:55.120
<v Speaker 11>to speak back in the dot com boom and bus cycle.

0:33:55.000 --> 0:33:59.440
<v Speaker 4>The commoditized element of concern, What about the circularity argument

0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:02.040
<v Speaker 4>that we can and that feeds into the debt question

0:34:02.120 --> 0:34:02.560
<v Speaker 4>in many.

0:34:02.440 --> 0:34:04.440
<v Speaker 5>Ways absolutely so.

0:34:04.480 --> 0:34:06.560
<v Speaker 11>Then the other question to ask is, if this is

0:34:06.600 --> 0:34:09.239
<v Speaker 11>such a fantastic investment on a go forward basis, why

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.840
<v Speaker 11>do you have participants in the ecosystem that are actually

0:34:13.040 --> 0:34:15.440
<v Speaker 11>funding their customers and then those cash flows are then

0:34:15.440 --> 0:34:18.359
<v Speaker 11>coming back to them. So in a lot of the

0:34:18.440 --> 0:34:20.640
<v Speaker 11>sort of obscure sort of arrangements and deals as well

0:34:20.680 --> 0:34:24.239
<v Speaker 11>in terms of special purpose vehicles JV structures, where are

0:34:24.280 --> 0:34:26.880
<v Speaker 11>you putting some of these assets into other sort of

0:34:26.880 --> 0:34:29.759
<v Speaker 11>places where you can depreciate the debt or you can

0:34:29.800 --> 0:34:32.880
<v Speaker 11>depreciate the assets within those other vehicles and it's not

0:34:32.920 --> 0:34:36.560
<v Speaker 11>sitting directly on your balance sheet. So this tends to

0:34:36.600 --> 0:34:38.600
<v Speaker 11>happen later in a cycle where you start to see

0:34:38.640 --> 0:34:41.440
<v Speaker 11>a little bit more aggressive accounting coming through, and you

0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:43.319
<v Speaker 11>start to see some of these things that are starting

0:34:43.320 --> 0:34:45.120
<v Speaker 11>to become a little bit more obscure. That has us

0:34:45.200 --> 0:34:48.080
<v Speaker 11>concern that we can't see a true sort of trajectory

0:34:48.200 --> 0:34:50.000
<v Speaker 11>where the economics are coming through.

0:34:50.920 --> 0:34:52.680
<v Speaker 5>That's what has this concern right now and.

0:34:52.640 --> 0:34:55.000
<v Speaker 4>Why you've gone under way. Brian Kirshman. Great to have

0:34:55.080 --> 0:34:57.759
<v Speaker 4>you come back soon. GQG Partners, We thank you for

0:34:57.800 --> 0:35:00.359
<v Speaker 4>coming up. Apple hits pauls on read I think it's

0:35:00.400 --> 0:35:03.560
<v Speaker 4>Vision Pro headsets. We discussed the rivalry with Meta as

0:35:03.560 --> 0:35:04.520
<v Speaker 4>a Bloomberg.

0:35:04.120 --> 0:35:08.880
<v Speaker 3>Tech Apple is said to be ditching plans to revap

0:35:08.960 --> 0:35:11.799
<v Speaker 3>its Vision pro headsets. Instead, the iPhone maker is said

0:35:11.800 --> 0:35:14.880
<v Speaker 3>to be looking to fast track and develop smart glasses

0:35:15.160 --> 0:35:16.600
<v Speaker 3>to rival metas ray bands.

0:35:16.640 --> 0:35:17.560
<v Speaker 2>That's the reporting.

0:35:17.800 --> 0:35:20.400
<v Speaker 3>Let's get to the analysis of Apple's entry into the

0:35:20.440 --> 0:35:24.720
<v Speaker 3>smart glass glasses category of anaag Rana Bloomberg Intelligence senior

0:35:24.760 --> 0:35:26.799
<v Speaker 3>tech analysts. They have a lot on their plate right

0:35:26.800 --> 0:35:29.879
<v Speaker 3>now to shift a new generation of handset of smartphone.

0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:32.960
<v Speaker 3>But have you modeled for the idea that they enter

0:35:33.000 --> 0:35:36.560
<v Speaker 3>a new category, the smart glass, away from augmented in VR.

0:35:37.840 --> 0:35:40.040
<v Speaker 12>No, not yet, Danil. We have to see what it is.

0:35:40.239 --> 0:35:42.359
<v Speaker 12>We have to see what kind of potential reception it's

0:35:42.400 --> 0:35:45.000
<v Speaker 12>going to be. I think Meta has a massive lead here,

0:35:45.280 --> 0:35:47.359
<v Speaker 12>so you know, you just can't sign off just because

0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:49.399
<v Speaker 12>it's an Apple product that it's going to do well.

0:35:50.040 --> 0:35:52.080
<v Speaker 12>I think it's going to have to see the details

0:35:52.120 --> 0:35:54.560
<v Speaker 12>and before we start to model any you know, kind

0:35:54.560 --> 0:35:55.040
<v Speaker 12>of shipment.

0:35:55.440 --> 0:35:56.760
<v Speaker 2>Should they be fast tracking?

0:35:58.520 --> 0:36:00.399
<v Speaker 12>I mean it is, but at the end of the day,

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:03.000
<v Speaker 12>a lot depends on the models that go into it.

0:36:03.040 --> 0:36:05.480
<v Speaker 12>So AI is a very big on device. AI is

0:36:05.480 --> 0:36:08.520
<v Speaker 12>a very big part of any of these edge products,

0:36:08.560 --> 0:36:10.879
<v Speaker 12>and I think, as we know, Apple has to get

0:36:10.960 --> 0:36:13.799
<v Speaker 12>that thing first right before they can move on to

0:36:13.920 --> 0:36:14.880
<v Speaker 12>some of those features.

0:36:14.960 --> 0:36:18.719
<v Speaker 3>Anarag, I've been reading your latest research wait times, inventory

0:36:18.880 --> 0:36:20.960
<v Speaker 3>handsets of the IFN seventeen generation.

0:36:21.360 --> 0:36:23.439
<v Speaker 2>Your conclusion, yeah, I see.

0:36:23.440 --> 0:36:25.960
<v Speaker 12>I think that's a good part is the base model's

0:36:26.000 --> 0:36:28.319
<v Speaker 12>doing very well, the pro is doing very well, but

0:36:28.400 --> 0:36:30.720
<v Speaker 12>iPhone Air is not at all doing well. And frankly,

0:36:30.760 --> 0:36:33.960
<v Speaker 12>that was the one model we thought could get some traction.

0:36:34.160 --> 0:36:36.600
<v Speaker 12>But it seems like the battery life is an issue there.

0:36:36.760 --> 0:36:38.920
<v Speaker 12>And the second piece could be it's not available in

0:36:39.040 --> 0:36:41.520
<v Speaker 12>China right now and that could be another driving factor.

0:36:42.040 --> 0:36:45.799
<v Speaker 4>Must read always Bloomberg Intelligence. Anna Ragrana, thanks so much

0:36:45.800 --> 0:36:49.040
<v Speaker 4>for spending time with us. Meanwhile, Peloton shares, let's talk

0:36:49.080 --> 0:36:52.600
<v Speaker 4>about half they've performed after yesterday. They continued to be

0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:55.920
<v Speaker 4>on the downside after unveiling revamped hardware software along with

0:36:56.000 --> 0:36:59.120
<v Speaker 4>new higher prices for its equipment and subscriptions. We spoke

0:36:59.160 --> 0:37:02.440
<v Speaker 4>with Peter Stern to CEO yesterday about the new features.

0:37:03.160 --> 0:37:06.600
<v Speaker 13>We are focused both on existing members as well as

0:37:06.960 --> 0:37:10.280
<v Speaker 13>non members. For existing members, they're getting so much today.

0:37:10.560 --> 0:37:13.719
<v Speaker 13>We are introducing for everyone, regardless of when you bought

0:37:13.719 --> 0:37:16.000
<v Speaker 13>your equipment, the benefits of peloton Iq, and that's just

0:37:16.080 --> 0:37:21.239
<v Speaker 13>included in your membership. We are now including a new

0:37:21.280 --> 0:37:23.920
<v Speaker 13>acquisition that we did a company called breath Work, because

0:37:23.920 --> 0:37:26.279
<v Speaker 13>we know the power of breathing and how it can

0:37:26.320 --> 0:37:29.280
<v Speaker 13>help people with stress and anxiety and depression and improve

0:37:29.280 --> 0:37:33.520
<v Speaker 13>heart rate variability and improve blood pressure. So everyone's getting that.

0:37:34.680 --> 0:37:37.200
<v Speaker 13>Major partnerships, for example, one with the Hospital for Special

0:37:37.239 --> 0:37:40.840
<v Speaker 13>Surgery to focus on injury prevention and rehabilitation. All of

0:37:40.880 --> 0:37:43.640
<v Speaker 13>these things happen for existing members, but if you're not

0:37:43.680 --> 0:37:46.600
<v Speaker 13>an existing member, there has never been a better time

0:37:46.640 --> 0:37:49.600
<v Speaker 13>to become one. With the launch of this all new

0:37:49.600 --> 0:37:53.200
<v Speaker 13>equipment lineup the Cross Training Series. Now we're delivering the

0:37:53.200 --> 0:37:57.480
<v Speaker 13>benefits of both cardio and strength because we know that

0:37:57.520 --> 0:38:00.560
<v Speaker 13>adults should be doing a couple of hours at a

0:38:00.600 --> 0:38:04.040
<v Speaker 13>week of cardio and two days of strength training every week.

0:38:04.200 --> 0:38:06.000
<v Speaker 13>You can do that now, all with one piece of

0:38:06.040 --> 0:38:07.640
<v Speaker 13>equipment that makes it super easy.

0:38:08.239 --> 0:38:11.880
<v Speaker 4>It's almost in many ways like cross training is the

0:38:11.880 --> 0:38:14.120
<v Speaker 4>way that which you're sort of identifying it. But if

0:38:14.160 --> 0:38:15.920
<v Speaker 4>I look at the analyst notes and maybe the reaction

0:38:15.960 --> 0:38:17.080
<v Speaker 4>from the stock is because a lot.

0:38:17.040 --> 0:38:17.880
<v Speaker 2>Of this have been maked in.

0:38:18.040 --> 0:38:20.399
<v Speaker 4>You've already given us full year forecasts that in many

0:38:20.440 --> 0:38:23.760
<v Speaker 4>way talk about what churn you're expecting, but what subscriber growth,

0:38:23.960 --> 0:38:26.080
<v Speaker 4>what do you think this will spur in terms of support.

0:38:26.520 --> 0:38:29.719
<v Speaker 13>So we knew, of course as we went into this

0:38:29.800 --> 0:38:31.279
<v Speaker 13>year what we were going to be launching, and we

0:38:31.280 --> 0:38:33.319
<v Speaker 13>were able, as you point out, Caroline, to bake all

0:38:33.320 --> 0:38:36.520
<v Speaker 13>of that into our guidance for the year. But we

0:38:36.600 --> 0:38:40.080
<v Speaker 13>also included in our guidance that as the year progresses,

0:38:40.400 --> 0:38:43.320
<v Speaker 13>we will be inflecting back toward growth. And that's a big,

0:38:43.560 --> 0:38:47.440
<v Speaker 13>big step for us as a company. We had a

0:38:47.520 --> 0:38:49.520
<v Speaker 13>couple of years where we've been down as we have

0:38:50.880 --> 0:38:53.800
<v Speaker 13>regrouped after the pandemic, and we are now in such

0:38:53.800 --> 0:38:57.200
<v Speaker 13>a good place where you see us having reignited our

0:38:57.280 --> 0:39:01.440
<v Speaker 13>innovation engine. Of course, our customer love has never left us.

0:39:01.760 --> 0:39:06.600
<v Speaker 13>Customers really just appreciate what Peloton does for them and

0:39:06.640 --> 0:39:09.520
<v Speaker 13>in particular have their deep connection with our instructors. So

0:39:09.560 --> 0:39:12.120
<v Speaker 13>we're building on that foundation and now feel even more

0:39:12.120 --> 0:39:13.880
<v Speaker 13>confident about our future than ever before.

0:39:14.800 --> 0:39:17.799
<v Speaker 3>That was Peloton's CEO Peter Stern speaking to Caro in

0:39:17.800 --> 0:39:18.759
<v Speaker 3>a big conversation.

0:39:25.000 --> 0:39:27.760
<v Speaker 4>Who will be the next CEO of Disney? The searches

0:39:27.760 --> 0:39:29.520
<v Speaker 4>on and right now the board has focused on four

0:39:29.560 --> 0:39:34.759
<v Speaker 4>internal candidates, including Josh Damarrow, Banna Walden, Alan Bergman, and

0:39:34.840 --> 0:39:37.440
<v Speaker 4>Jimmy and Pataro. Now this is the company is getting

0:39:37.480 --> 0:39:39.680
<v Speaker 4>ready to name a new CEO early next year, but

0:39:40.239 --> 0:39:43.239
<v Speaker 4>it sounds though conversations are starting to steer towards one

0:39:43.280 --> 0:39:48.200
<v Speaker 4>particular name. Lucas Shaw has the details. Why after Bob Chapek,

0:39:48.320 --> 0:39:50.920
<v Speaker 4>would it be deemed that the person in charge of

0:39:51.000 --> 0:39:52.879
<v Speaker 4>experiences and parks is the right pick?

0:39:52.960 --> 0:39:57.320
<v Speaker 14>Lucas well, Look, it's both about personality and the future

0:39:57.360 --> 0:39:59.239
<v Speaker 14>of Disney. You look at where Disney's putting all of

0:39:59.280 --> 0:40:02.040
<v Speaker 14>its money going forward, it's into that parts and experience.

0:40:02.040 --> 0:40:02.560
<v Speaker 5>This division.

0:40:02.640 --> 0:40:04.000
<v Speaker 2>Most of the capex over the.

0:40:03.960 --> 0:40:07.800
<v Speaker 14>Next decade is going there, whether expanding existing parks or

0:40:07.880 --> 0:40:11.200
<v Speaker 14>building new parks. And Josh is also a very different

0:40:11.239 --> 0:40:15.000
<v Speaker 14>personality than Bob Shapek, right, he seems to have more

0:40:15.040 --> 0:40:17.720
<v Speaker 14>facility with other parts of the business. He frankly looks

0:40:17.760 --> 0:40:19.799
<v Speaker 14>like a Disney CEO, as weird as that may be

0:40:19.960 --> 0:40:23.480
<v Speaker 14>to sound, or as weird as that may sound, And

0:40:23.680 --> 0:40:28.080
<v Speaker 14>he is just seen as very well qualified relative to

0:40:28.200 --> 0:40:30.720
<v Speaker 14>the other candidates in the business and a Disney lifer,

0:40:31.520 --> 0:40:34.520
<v Speaker 14>which matters at a company that has a very distinct culture.

0:40:35.239 --> 0:40:37.680
<v Speaker 3>He was around and hanging out in some valley in

0:40:37.760 --> 0:40:41.400
<v Speaker 3>July saw him. The screen Time team gave a detailed

0:40:41.400 --> 0:40:44.399
<v Speaker 3>report about a breakfast that took place Lucas, I think

0:40:44.400 --> 0:40:48.600
<v Speaker 3>it's worth you explaining to the audience what happened, why

0:40:48.640 --> 0:40:49.440
<v Speaker 3>it's significant.

0:40:50.239 --> 0:40:53.759
<v Speaker 14>Well, Bob Iger, the current CEO of Disney, who's been

0:40:53.800 --> 0:40:56.399
<v Speaker 14>at the company for more than two decades, was having

0:40:56.440 --> 0:41:01.040
<v Speaker 14>breakfast with someone who said what many in Hollywood are

0:41:01.120 --> 0:41:03.640
<v Speaker 14>already thinking and saying, which is Josh is going to

0:41:03.640 --> 0:41:06.920
<v Speaker 14>have the job, and said something positive about how he

0:41:06.920 --> 0:41:10.880
<v Speaker 14>would do in it, and Bob reacted very negatively, insisting

0:41:10.960 --> 0:41:14.040
<v Speaker 14>that the board has not made a decision. And there's

0:41:14.040 --> 0:41:17.359
<v Speaker 14>two important things to know about this. One is that

0:41:17.719 --> 0:41:20.360
<v Speaker 14>Disney is a company. Even though everyone in Hollywood believes

0:41:20.600 --> 0:41:23.320
<v Speaker 14>that Josh is now the clear front runner, the company

0:41:23.360 --> 0:41:25.440
<v Speaker 14>is insisting and has made no decisions, and it's not

0:41:25.480 --> 0:41:27.879
<v Speaker 14>going to make any news about this until early next year.

0:41:28.640 --> 0:41:31.440
<v Speaker 14>The other is that Bob Iger, who has been pretty

0:41:31.480 --> 0:41:34.200
<v Speaker 14>involved in succession the last few times, which have not

0:41:34.520 --> 0:41:37.759
<v Speaker 14>processes that have not gone well, is said to be

0:41:37.880 --> 0:41:40.400
<v Speaker 14>more marginalized this time because the board knows they need

0:41:40.480 --> 0:41:41.880
<v Speaker 14>to get it right, and one way to get it

0:41:41.960 --> 0:41:44.760
<v Speaker 14>right is to not have the current CEO as involved

0:41:44.760 --> 0:41:46.560
<v Speaker 14>as he has been. And so I think this is

0:41:46.600 --> 0:41:48.840
<v Speaker 14>just a source of great frustration for Bob, who doesn't

0:41:48.840 --> 0:41:50.479
<v Speaker 14>want to be seen as a lame duck, but also

0:41:50.560 --> 0:41:52.640
<v Speaker 14>doesn't have as much control over this as he has.

0:41:53.760 --> 0:41:56.240
<v Speaker 4>Briefly, Lucas, I just want to switch Gears to Netflix.

0:41:56.239 --> 0:41:58.880
<v Speaker 4>It's down for four straight days now. There is growing

0:41:58.920 --> 0:42:01.799
<v Speaker 4>anxiety about what happening over an X Andino Musk.

0:42:04.480 --> 0:42:07.440
<v Speaker 14>I mean maybe growing anxiety among a few investors. I

0:42:07.480 --> 0:42:10.920
<v Speaker 14>am not detecting that with my sources at the company,

0:42:12.280 --> 0:42:14.040
<v Speaker 14>most of whom would point out that it's a little

0:42:14.080 --> 0:42:16.920
<v Speaker 14>bit ironic for someone who's been a free speech warrior

0:42:17.040 --> 0:42:19.640
<v Speaker 14>to browbeat them for a television show that was released

0:42:19.880 --> 0:42:21.239
<v Speaker 14>like three to five years ago.

0:42:22.080 --> 0:42:24.880
<v Speaker 3>Bloombergs Lucashaw, who leads the screen time team, Thank you

0:42:24.960 --> 0:42:27.959
<v Speaker 3>so much. That does it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech.

0:42:28.280 --> 0:42:32.440
<v Speaker 3>But screen Time returns next week live from Los Angeles.

0:42:32.760 --> 0:42:35.279
<v Speaker 3>You got a tune in conversations with the best of

0:42:35.320 --> 0:42:40.000
<v Speaker 3>the entertainment industry, including Jimmy Kimmel, Caroline Yeah.

0:42:40.400 --> 0:42:42.600
<v Speaker 4>I cannot wait to go. Cannot wait to hear the

0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:45.279
<v Speaker 4>conversations Lucas is going to conduct to many others do not.

0:42:45.360 --> 0:42:48.279
<v Speaker 4>In the meantime, forget to check out our podcast. Find

0:42:48.320 --> 0:42:51.040
<v Speaker 4>it on the terminal as well as online on Apple, Spotify,

0:42:51.280 --> 0:42:54.439
<v Speaker 4>and iHeart. This is Bloomberg Tech from New York.