WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 Q3 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:11.799 Um check it down Man, Now Down Man Saturday Morning. 0:00:11.840 --> 0:00:16.000 These Being the Book podcast Jel Alexander the podcast today, 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:18.720 sponsored by The Football Analytics Show. It's the podcast run 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:21.639 by Ed Fang. Frequent guests on the makeupod. Enter the 0:00:21.640 --> 0:00:25.400 final two weeks of August, he's doing the Previews series, 0:00:25.840 --> 0:00:27.920 a set of ten episodes of ten minutes each that 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:32.080 previews this season. That's ten episodes of ten minutes each. 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:36.520 Love that idea, covering both college and pro football. Find 0:00:36.520 --> 0:00:40.479 The Football Analytics Show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.640 listen to podcast. Check that out today on the show. 0:00:43.760 --> 0:00:47.199 It's our mlb Q three derivative show. Every club in 0:00:47.240 --> 0:00:51.880 Major League Baseball more or less rounding the one game mark, 0:00:52.360 --> 0:00:53.640 so you know how we do this. If you've been 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:56.000 a frequent listener to the show through the years. Public 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:58.640 domain stats available on the show today, as well as 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:02.240 the much more proprietary first five inning and first inning 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:05.000 stats for all your betting needs to the Beating the 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:14.840 Book podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your host Alexander. 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:17.760 Oh yeah, and is the numbers game right here in Bason, Vegas. 0:01:17.760 --> 0:01:20.560 Stats and Information Networks serious except Channel two or four 0:01:20.640 --> 0:01:22.959 Visa dot Com, the Visa appen voices. If you're hearing 0:01:23.040 --> 0:01:25.520 voices in your head while I was talking right there, 0:01:26.000 --> 0:01:28.240 it's not you. It actually happened just there on the air. 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:31.480 It's skill Alexander. What's happening? Party people, Jeff Parl's producing 0:01:31.560 --> 0:01:33.600 number five is here is well. Good morning to Jeffrey 0:01:33.840 --> 0:01:36.160 and ladies and gentlemen joining us for what is a 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:39.560 Q three MLB derivative show. We'll do other things. We'll 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:42.360 talk golf with Brady Cannon, and we'll talk about today's 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:45.760 baseball slate as well. But it is right at the 0:01:45.760 --> 0:01:48.800 one twenty game mark, one twenty one game mark for 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.000 most Major League Baseball teams. So what does our Q 0:01:51.160 --> 0:01:53.160 three MLB derivative show? And joining us for the first 0:01:53.200 --> 0:01:55.640 time for this endeavor, ladies and gentlemen. He's here yesterday, 0:01:55.760 --> 0:01:58.960 he's here today, Star of Jewish follow the Money Here, 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:02.800 it's Lasdell. Let's Todd Wish. Good morning Todd, Good morning Gil. 0:02:02.920 --> 0:02:06.080 Welcome to the Gil and Todd Show, and thanks for coming. 0:02:06.840 --> 0:02:10.280 Thank you for having me. Todd appreciate it. Um you 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:13.720 uh you excited about little derivatives here man, because we're 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:15.520 gonna through all these baseball stats, and again we're gonna 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:18.240 try to determine how much of this is narrative and 0:02:18.280 --> 0:02:20.440 how much of this is predictive moving into the last 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.000 quarter of the season. By the way, I'm if you've 0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:25.120 heard me on this show a couple of times I 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:28.440 talked about how the Yankees can put any blob of 0:02:28.560 --> 0:02:32.080 meat in a Yankee stadium. You've in a Yankee uniform, 0:02:32.120 --> 0:02:33.720 and all of a sudden they hit the ball out 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:35.440 of the ballpark. And I said, oh, well, the Yankees 0:02:35.440 --> 0:02:37.280 are probably stealing the signs like the Cardinals did a 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.959 couple of years ago. So this guy, David Lionetti, sent 0:02:40.040 --> 0:02:42.519 me a thing on Twitter. It's an article from the 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.720 Boston Globe why the Red Sox are looking for counter 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.720 espionage inside their caps. What they're doing now is they're 0:02:49.720 --> 0:02:52.360 putting they keep switching the signs so they don't get 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.760 people stealing their signs. So like, if Christian Vasca is 0:02:55.800 --> 0:02:58.320 the catcher, maybe it's the third sign one time, it's 0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:00.000 the fourth sign of different time, it's the second sign 0:03:00.000 --> 0:03:02.200 a different time. And I didn't read the whole article, 0:03:02.240 --> 0:03:04.839 but they have like a little cheat sheet in their 0:03:04.919 --> 0:03:08.320 cap as to which sign is the correct sign to 0:03:08.560 --> 0:03:11.720 foil counter to foil people who are trying to steal 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:14.320 their signs. So stealing signs is a real thing, folks. 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:17.480 And if you watch these yeah, and if you watch 0:03:17.520 --> 0:03:21.080 The Yankees with Cameron Maybon, Mike Talchman as you like 0:03:21.160 --> 0:03:25.360 to call him, I'm claiming him Brave val Era and 0:03:25.440 --> 0:03:30.040 of course my favorite guy, pizza aficionado. Now I don't 0:03:30.080 --> 0:03:31.239 know this for sure, but I have a feeling he 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:35.600 likes pizza. Mike Ford down at first base, you're disdained 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:38.360 from Mike Ford. Actually, Mike Ford, I'm sure is a 0:03:38.400 --> 0:03:41.360 great guy. But you know, you know, when you're fat, 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:43.440 sometimes you don't like fat and others. It's like a 0:03:43.480 --> 0:03:46.840 psychological thing, you know, you hate what you see in others. 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.320 So because I'm a fat so I've got you know, 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:50.840 I look at Mike Ford and I go, come on, 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:53.200 you know you're in the major leagues, you should be, uh, 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:55.200 you know, in shape. But as opposed as a Mike 0:03:55.280 --> 0:03:58.640 I apologize to you, you're on the Yankees keep stealing 0:03:58.640 --> 0:04:00.720 the signs as opposed to really relating to him and 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:03.160 finding him lovable. So you what you are suggesting is 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:05.840 that the Eggies because anyone who puts on a uniform 0:04:05.880 --> 0:04:08.960 all of a sudden becomes amazing. They have to be stealing. 0:04:09.120 --> 0:04:11.240 It's tongue in cheek. I'm staying a tongue in cheek. 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:12.880 I'm not saying I would bet on it, but I 0:04:13.000 --> 0:04:16.039 saying it's kind of fishy. I understand by the way 0:04:16.080 --> 0:04:18.640 I am claiming Tauchmann, there had to be an Ellis 0:04:18.640 --> 0:04:22.880 Island incident. I just want to point that out. All right, 0:04:23.000 --> 0:04:25.240 let's do uh, let's do some major League baseball stats. 0:04:25.240 --> 0:04:27.040 Now here it is is the Q three Derivative Show, 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:29.520 and the point of this exercise and and we'll we'll 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:32.080 intersperson throughout the show will also do today's games. But 0:04:32.200 --> 0:04:33.920 we're going to narrow this down. At first, it's gonna 0:04:33.920 --> 0:04:35.760 be very public domain stuff. And then we're gonna narrow 0:04:35.800 --> 0:04:39.040 it down into the proprietary stuff, which is first five innings. Uh, 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.320 that's not quite propriet to. The first inning stuff is 0:04:41.360 --> 0:04:44.440 super proprietary. Um. But let's start with just the general things. 0:04:44.480 --> 0:04:46.680 These are widely available. We get these from covers dot com. 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:48.440 Let's give them a shot on this. These are the 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:51.279 best um in terms of betting stats. Now, we don't 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:53.839 care about real life here for this exercise, but in 0:04:53.920 --> 0:04:57.480 terms of the betting stats, the single most profitable teams 0:04:57.480 --> 0:05:01.200 in all of baseball a bizarro exerci eyes todd as 0:05:01.240 --> 0:05:05.000 if you bet this team every single game on the side, 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:09.440 all year long, laying a unit as a dog, risking 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:12.159 more than a unit to win a unit as a favorite. Uh. 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:14.120 And even when you do all that in the wash, 0:05:14.440 --> 0:05:16.800 here are your most profitable teams in baseball. Here most 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:20.040 profitable clubs, it is the Yankees and the Dodgers, both 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:22.599 at eighty and forty one in real life. See that 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:25.760 the Yankees would have netted you in that Bizarro exercise 0:05:25.920 --> 0:05:28.520 nearly twenty units, and the Dodgers would have netted you 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:31.480 eighteen units. So again, that's you bet them every day 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.200 sight unseen, you don't care the opponent whatever. Again, lay 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:37.320 a unit as a dog, risk more than a unit 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:39.600 to win a unit as a favorite. And even with 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:44.120 the Yankees and Dodgers getting dealt big minus numbers right 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:49.239 more often than not, even doing that, they're so good 0:05:49.320 --> 0:05:51.520 right eight and forty one in real life that they're 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.120 still the most profitable teams in baseball. Well, let's look 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:56.440 at the math. If they were eight and forty. Let's 0:05:56.440 --> 0:06:00.440 just throw out the one. They would be winning two 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:03.040 out of every three games if they were minus two 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:06.760 hundred every game, and I assumed this would be like 0:06:06.800 --> 0:06:09.120 the midpoint line or they're they're just taking whatever their 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.080 line was. So if they were minus two hundred every 0:06:11.080 --> 0:06:13.440 single game this year, they would have broken even if 0:06:13.440 --> 0:06:16.159 you would have bet them every single game. Obviously they there. 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:18.960 You said, they're up about eighteen units in twenty games, 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.840 so they're average prices is less than the average prices 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:23.760 probably somewhere in the neighborhood. I mean, I'm just doing 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:25.400 the math off my off the top of my head, 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:29.520 but probably one sixty maybe doesn't sound about right. Let 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:33.000 me think about that. One sixty and forty units forty 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.400 times one sixty is what point is is that they're 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:37.760 exceeding their break even right there. They're doing better than 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:40.040 they're breaking there. It is forty times one point six 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:43.479 is uh sixty four losses. So right there, you know 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:46.479 eight wins sixty four losses. You know you're talking about 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:50.120 they're averages right around one sixty. Minnesota, San Francisco at 0:06:50.120 --> 0:06:52.400 Oakland close out the three most profitable teams. This is 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:54.320 just a money line bets. Now we're talking the Twins 0:06:54.760 --> 0:06:58.880 who uh caught most of baseball by surprise early let's say, 0:06:59.560 --> 0:07:02.120 generally speaking set seven in real life, they would have 0:07:02.240 --> 0:07:05.480 netted you over fourteen units this year. How about the Giants, 0:07:05.520 --> 0:07:08.039 the Giants who are back to five hundred again Todd 0:07:08.080 --> 0:07:10.680 Wishne making the daily mistake of not factoring enough Giants 0:07:10.680 --> 0:07:15.080 magic into his model. Giants up thirteen units for betters. Uh, 0:07:15.160 --> 0:07:18.760 they're largely plus money night after night after night. And 0:07:18.800 --> 0:07:21.600 that's why, you know, you don't have to do better 0:07:21.640 --> 0:07:25.480 than five hundred to have netted thirteen units overall. By 0:07:25.520 --> 0:07:27.640 the way, we'll find out in these splits here momentarily 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.920 how at home they're not profitable, and we see that 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.040 on the screen right there, just a sort of portent 0:07:33.120 --> 0:07:36.640 of things to come. But away, man, they're a cash machine. 0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:38.800 A's by the way, the other Bay Area team who 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.400 the Giants beat last night, they're the fifth most overall 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:45.400 profitable team at all at baseball. So another interesting point 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:48.360 about that. In the old days, um, you know, it 0:07:48.440 --> 0:07:50.920 was you almost could never bet a minus two hundred. 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:54.640 You just couldn't do it and win. And you see 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:58.600 from these numbers here that it's almost like betting has 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:00.680 been turned baseball. Betting has been turned it on its head. 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.400 This is what I listen I said before last season, 0:08:03.480 --> 0:08:05.720 Remember I said, very ear lonestly, we're about to enter 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:07.840 an era of baseball where that chasm between the halves 0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:10.400 and the have knots gets wider and wider. And this year, 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:12.200 I said earlier in the season, if you listen to 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:13.800 the show, I said, you almost have to shut off 0:08:13.840 --> 0:08:16.720 your brain betting baseball, and the Yankees and the Dodgers 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.760 being on top of that list is the manifestation of that. 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:24.760 They're they're huge favorites. Every night, you still would have 0:08:24.800 --> 0:08:26.840 made the most money in baseball betting on them. That 0:08:26.920 --> 0:08:28.800 says it, all right, you know, you know it's not 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.240 shutting off your brain. It's actually using your brain. You 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:32.880 know what I mean. No, I don't know. I know 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:34.720 what you're trying to say. But the point is you 0:08:34.840 --> 0:08:37.280 really have to use your brain even more in a sense. 0:08:37.440 --> 0:08:40.280 Value is value. Originally you're gonna think, oh wait, those 0:08:40.320 --> 0:08:43.719 favorites can't make your money. But if you can recognize 0:08:43.720 --> 0:08:46.880 that some of these favorites versus the relative strength of 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.480 the record of the league are not as good as 0:08:49.520 --> 0:08:53.200 it used to be. You know that that's in an effect, 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:54.960 it's the opposite. You have to use your I understand 0:08:55.000 --> 0:08:56.960 exactly what you mean by that, right, you know, just 0:08:56.960 --> 0:08:59.680 take the favorites. But I'm saying you really fact that 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:03.320 you have to recalibrate value. Right, you have to recalibrate 0:09:03.360 --> 0:09:06.520 with saying it recalibrate. Thank you, don thank you. That's 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.480 why I'm here, That's why you're here, Rather to be 0:09:08.520 --> 0:09:12.559 my hype man, flavor, my flavor flavor. You know, you're 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.040 going out there and you're being cerebral, and that's what 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.680 we want. We don't want physical we want some cerebral 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:24.120 Dodd on football, I loved I was lost yesterday. So 0:09:24.200 --> 0:09:27.520 here the least, the least profitable, the teams that have 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.920 hemorrhaged you the most money. Now, this is a bizarro exercise, right. 0:09:30.960 --> 0:09:32.680 If you're going out and you're betting the Tigers every 0:09:32.760 --> 0:09:35.080 night's light unseen, I would suggest to you you're probably 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:38.520 doing this wrong. Um, but the Tigers. If you bet 0:09:38.559 --> 0:09:40.840 the Tigers every single day of the baseball season, again, 0:09:40.840 --> 0:09:42.640 this is the flip of the Ygges and the Dodgers, right, 0:09:42.679 --> 0:09:44.800 their plus money and big plus money by and large 0:09:44.800 --> 0:09:48.080 when Matthew Boyd's not pitching. Exception to the rule, the 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:49.880 Tigers are thirty and eighty one. If you bet them 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.200 every night, you're down thirty three units. See. Now here's 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:55.400 something that I would love to see when they do 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.640 these these you know charts. What about if you bet 0:09:58.679 --> 0:10:02.079 against the Tigers every night, so you wouldn't be up. 0:10:03.720 --> 0:10:07.200 You would be up like thirty seven minus the viig 0:10:07.640 --> 0:10:09.920 correct the other way, but I think you'd still be up. 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:12.079 But that would be an interesting point as well. It's 0:10:12.080 --> 0:10:14.520 a good point. So it's just if no one's gonna 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:16.360 bet the Tigers every night, unless you're like some kind 0:10:16.360 --> 0:10:19.000 of crazy, die hard Tiger fan. But what would be 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.000 interesting is how I guess we could figure out because that, yeah, 0:10:22.000 --> 0:10:24.480 that would represent the bookies take right, that's the strattle. 0:10:24.600 --> 0:10:26.560 So we went back the other way, twenty cents the 0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:30.679 other way exactly on every would it be every loss 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:32.560 or everyone. I'm just trying to think about that now 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:34.679 because there's a radio audience. Now you're just here getting 0:10:34.679 --> 0:10:36.559 too much, so we're getting too mathematical. No, but I 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:39.000 understand your your point is a good one, right by 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.400 the way. So, the second most hemorrhaging team for betters 0:10:42.400 --> 0:10:45.320 in baseball this year is the defending World Series champion 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:47.800 Red Sox. And this is a team that obviously off 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:50.240 a championship, comes in with high expectations, so there's gonna 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:52.839 be a lot of minus money on them, particularly early 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:57.200 in the season, and that cost betters a pretty penny. 0:10:57.240 --> 0:11:00.240 You'd be down twenty six units betting the World's Are's 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:02.360 Chance blindly all year long as a favorite as a 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:05.200 dog every single game. Royals, Mariners, Pod Rays, no Surprise, 0:11:05.240 --> 0:11:07.719 three four five. But the Red Sox are kind of 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:09.480 the you know, one thing is not like the other. 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.080 They're They're the team that stands out. And by the way, 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:15.360 most years you have one or two or three teams 0:11:15.600 --> 0:11:17.800 that are at the bottom because the expectations or that, 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.719 you know, the money the lines getting dealt on them 0:11:20.720 --> 0:11:23.560 on a daily basis is just not commensurate with their performance. 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:25.280 It's the Red Sox to get the Booby Prize on 0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.160 that this year. By the way, I just did the 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:29.840 math in my head. Now I might be doing it wrong, 0:11:29.880 --> 0:11:31.440 but I think you'd still be up if you bet 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:35.120 against the Tigers every game. Somewhere in the neighbor. Yeah, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.040 I think it's something somewhere could be wrong. No, no, 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:40.080 but that's the point right there. You'd be down thirty 0:11:40.080 --> 0:11:41.360 three if you bet on them, but if you had 0:11:41.360 --> 0:11:44.120 bet against them, you wouldn't be up thirty three about 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:48.000 still very nicely in thirty And as far as the 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:51.200 Red Sox, well, that's an obvious you know, this reminds 0:11:51.240 --> 0:11:52.520 me of the Cubs a couple of years ago after 0:11:52.559 --> 0:11:54.319 they won the World Series. That came out and we're 0:11:54.360 --> 0:11:56.280 played five hundred the first half of the year, and 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:58.040 had you just bet against the Cubs every game, you'd 0:11:58.080 --> 0:12:01.240 have been a bazillion dollars. So this is your Red Sox, 0:12:01.440 --> 0:12:05.000 uh World Series hangover their sixty three and fifty nine. 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.640 But yet, especially at home, look at those home numbers. 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:11.800 I'm sure tons of that represents all those sale losses 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.720 at minus that's minus three. He's probably a huge portion 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.839 of it. On the road they're only down three, so 0:12:18.320 --> 0:12:20.640 a huge amount of Let's do we have the split 0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:22.400 numbers before we get the splitt in the splits right there, 0:12:22.440 --> 0:12:23.599 I know, But do we have a separate chart of 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:27.160 the splitter? We don't like the home the top home 0:12:27.160 --> 0:12:29.200 and top yeah, yeah, we have Okay, well before we 0:12:29.200 --> 0:12:30.360 get to that, just one last thing on they have 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:32.480 the Padres. Look at the Padres away. You would have 0:12:32.520 --> 0:12:35.880 made one United States dollar playing the Padres on road 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:40.320 based on these numbers. Anyway, with all of this, the 0:12:40.480 --> 0:12:43.840 point of this exercises Okay, that's what's happened the first 0:12:43.880 --> 0:12:47.840 three quarters of the season. Now the endeavor here is 0:12:47.880 --> 0:12:50.320 to now figure out going into the final court of 0:12:50.320 --> 0:12:52.480 the season. Is this just a fun thing to talk 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.600 about in a narrative or is there any predictive value 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:57.560 to this? And I would suggest on some of these 0:12:57.600 --> 0:13:00.160 things there will be predictive value. On other things, we're 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:01.679 just kind of talking about it because it's fun to 0:13:01.720 --> 0:13:05.240 talk about, right, But there is some intuitive sense to 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:06.880 some of the things that moving forward we'll find out 0:13:06.920 --> 0:13:08.520 more that blok to the home road splits just is 0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:12.000 uh really one other point? Yes, the Mariners, if I 0:13:12.040 --> 0:13:14.200 remember correctly, might have been twelve and three to start 0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:18.679 the year and two much so if you take those out, 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.080 they're tiger like. They are tiger like, no question, they're 0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.120 tiger like. All right, So now this is again just 0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:26.600 we'll do the home teams. The subset of what We 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:29.680 just found out the Dodgers, who were second overall. They're 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:32.160 the number one home team for Baseball bettors this year, 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:36.520 forty eight and sixteen at home, twenty units uh in 0:13:36.679 --> 0:13:38.559 people's pockets at home, so which means, by the way, 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:40.360 that they're slightly negative on the road. If I'm not 0:13:40.400 --> 0:13:44.600 mistaken the Dodgers Rangers. I wouldn't have expected the Rangers, 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.480 but they're they're Rangers, very profitable at home. Second most 0:13:47.480 --> 0:13:49.679 profitable team at home because they're thirty five and twenty 0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:53.319 two at home. Astro's Yankees, Cubs and Boyd. The Cubs 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.040 have a stark home road split that we keep saying 0:13:56.160 --> 0:14:01.200 night after night. Cubs get fourteen k's from Kintana last 0:14:01.280 --> 0:14:04.560 night and managed to lose again. They're two and three 0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:06.680 on their current road trip, which has five more games 0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.280 left in and and uh. The St. Louis Cardinals are 0:14:09.360 --> 0:14:12.120 not gonna have the dough in the NL Central one back. 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:15.280 But the Cubs fifth most profitable home team. Least profitable 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.480 home teams, Oh what he notes the Tigers and the 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.480 Red Sox at the bottom. There what is perhaps the 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:22.560 usual suspects. If I could say that, let's just go 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:24.880 real quick to ther way teams here this is just overall. 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:27.120 These are widely available. Again, these are courtesy of covers. 0:14:27.400 --> 0:14:32.760 Most profitable road teams, the San Francisco Giants, Los Gantees 0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:36.280 will be up for almost fourteen units for betters who 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:40.320 closely followed by the Twinkies and the Rays Braves are up. 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:42.200 Those are the four teams that would have netted you 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:45.160 double digit units just betting them on the road blindly. 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:51.000 Least profitable road teams the aforementioned Chicago Cubs, worst road 0:14:51.120 --> 0:14:53.760 team money wise in Baseball. The Marlins are the only 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.200 team worst record wise in the National League in real life, 0:14:57.280 --> 0:14:59.400 but because the Marlins are always getting plus money and 0:14:59.440 --> 0:15:03.080 the Cubbies are often times in minus even on the road, 0:15:03.480 --> 0:15:06.120 Cubs would have hemorrhaged you fifteen units if you just 0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:08.640 let bet them blindly on the road. They're twenty three 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:11.320 and thirty six on the road, and they lead a 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:16.640 division in baseball. Royals, Mets, Tigers, Astros, Tigers on all 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:21.440 is the one that really shocks me. Then, but yet 0:15:21.520 --> 0:15:24.720 down eight seventy, which tells you they're always big money. 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.680 You know they're still on the road. They're still huge money. 0:15:27.720 --> 0:15:31.560 By the way, last night. Very strange circumstance with game 0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:33.200 two of that double header, and we talked a little 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.400 bit about this off air. Garrett Cole was expected to 0:15:36.400 --> 0:15:38.440 be the Game two starter, and he was what like 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:41.800 minus three sixty something like that. Some some people are 0:15:41.760 --> 0:15:44.360 saying three, maybe three, It depends where you were shopping. 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:49.000 But really there was a pitching change really late, like 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.840 really late. It wasn't like people had had a chance 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:55.680 to really adjust to it. Yeah, so the line didn't 0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.400 really have a didn't move that much off it. Usually 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:03.480 they they move it automatically. Thought it was very strange 0:16:03.600 --> 0:16:06.320 because who was Davinski Nsky was went off three sixty 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:08.360 and I was like, that can't be right. I don't 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:11.000 remember a circumstances like that that was so close to 0:16:11.080 --> 0:16:13.240 game time. And then I didn't even I didn't even 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.600 realize that that was the line going into a Devinsky 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.000 until someone like someone mentioned it later. I was like, oh, 0:16:18.040 --> 0:16:19.880 I didn't notice it either until it was like in 0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:21.720 the third inning and I looked up. I said Devinsky 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:24.760 minus three sixty. Usually they air move it when there's 0:16:24.800 --> 0:16:26.920 when there's a pitching It's not like anybody moves it 0:16:26.960 --> 0:16:29.200 with the with the money very They just quickly air 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:30.720 move it, and I would think they would at least 0:16:30.760 --> 0:16:36.360 move it down like to exactly paying attention at that moment. 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:38.240 Of course, they lose the game, and of course they 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.160 lose the second game. Right it's right four to one 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.480 to the White Sox. Um they had a lot of 0:16:42.480 --> 0:16:45.120 their their hitters out in the second game. We'll come back. 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:47.360 We'll do the best and worst run line teams for 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:49.840 better than all of baseball. Then we'll talk first five intings. 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.240 We'll talk up well and we'll get the first five. Eventually, 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.960 we'll talk umpires, will talk starting pitchers. We'll do it 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.640 all the Q three MLB derivative show. Todd Wishnev is 0:16:57.680 --> 0:17:00.200 here as well as Jeff Parlay, Gill Alexander right on 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:08.080 a numbers game at Vicent. Welcome back to a numbers 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.600 game with Jill Alexander, produce the number five. Jeff Parls 0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:13.399 tells me that we got Charles Barkley back in the 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:16.000 intro of the show. Is that true? I stepped on him. 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.680 We we all stepped on him. We didn't realize where 0:17:18.720 --> 0:17:21.680 Barkley was in the intro, so I gotta let him breathe. 0:17:23.080 --> 0:17:27.680 It's been a big Twitter discussion the last It's amazing 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:30.439 how how much the folks love Chuck. Do we have 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.159 Barkley on the fade out or something? All Right, I 0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:33.800 gotta lit a breathe. Well here, next time we get 0:17:33.800 --> 0:17:37.120 tweets beating the book, I love you all for tweeting us. 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:40.760 Um Okay, more Baseball best worst run line teams in 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.320 all baseball gain bizarrow exercise when you're betting these teams 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:45.480 on the run line each and every single game of 0:17:45.480 --> 0:17:47.119 the season, which no one is actually doing, but it 0:17:47.160 --> 0:17:49.840 gives a sense of which teams have been profitable, at 0:17:49.880 --> 0:17:52.880 least profitable for betters. Remember run line. When your favorite, 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:54.920 you're giving a run and a half. When you're a dog, 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:58.240 you are getting a run and a half. So a 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:00.840 lot of one run out comes will affect these numbers. 0:18:00.840 --> 0:18:03.439 I like to call it todd a de facto power ranking, 0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:05.640 because when you win, you win big. When you lose, 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.320 sometimes you keep it closer. Oftentimes, if you're on the 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:10.920 on the most profitable list most profitable run line teams 0:18:10.920 --> 0:18:15.080 in baseball, excuse me, the New York Yankees. No surprise there, 0:18:15.080 --> 0:18:17.119 they'd have you up thirty one units plus. Again, these 0:18:17.119 --> 0:18:22.199 courtesy of covers dot Com. The Rangers and A's Diamondbacks 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:25.600 and Indians wrap up the top five run line teams 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.200 in baseball for betters. Now, it's a big drop from 0:18:28.240 --> 0:18:30.639 the Yankees to the Rangers, right, it's eighteen units. Like 0:18:30.640 --> 0:18:33.800 the Yankees are far in a way the best run 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:35.880 line team in baseball this year because when they win, 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:40.040 they crush you. Probably I'm sorry, no, no, but that was. 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:43.440 But the Rangers, as diamond Backs and Indians probably surprise 0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:47.879 a lot of people. Diamond Backs certainly. I think the 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:50.760 Yankees kind of makes sense because of course they and 0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:52.960 then they have the decent relief so they don't let 0:18:52.960 --> 0:18:55.359 you back for a one run win when they should 0:18:55.359 --> 0:18:57.800 have won by two or three. And then, um, the 0:18:57.880 --> 0:19:00.919 Texas Rangers kind of makes sense to me because you 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:03.800 don't really ever see the Rangers win a close game, 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:06.400 you know, because they have a terrible bullpen. They either 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:09.760 just we're killing the ball and winning or just losing, 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:11.960 you know, and now they don't even hit. But I'm 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:14.399 saying earlier in the year, but if the Rangers are 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.639 sixty eight and fifty one and run line games, doesn't 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:18.720 that suggest that they're losing a lot of one run games. 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.359