Speaker 1: Um check it down Man, Now Down Man Saturday Morning.
Speaker 1: These Being the Book podcast Jel Alexander the podcast today,
Speaker 1: sponsored by The Football Analytics Show. It's the podcast run
Speaker 1: by Ed Fang. Frequent guests on the makeupod. Enter the
Speaker 1: final two weeks of August, he's doing the Previews series,
Speaker 1: a set of ten episodes of ten minutes each that
Speaker 1: previews this season. That's ten episodes of ten minutes each.
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Speaker 1: The Football Analytics Show on Apple Podcasts or wherever you
Speaker 1: listen to podcast. Check that out today on the show.
Speaker 1: It's our mlb Q three derivative show. Every club in
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball more or less rounding the one game mark,
Speaker 1: so you know how we do this. If you've been
Speaker 1: a frequent listener to the show through the years. Public
Speaker 1: domain stats available on the show today, as well as
Speaker 1: the much more proprietary first five inning and first inning
Speaker 1: stats for all your betting needs to the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game with your host Alexander.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, and is the numbers game right here in Bason, Vegas.
Speaker 1: Stats and Information Networks serious except Channel two or four
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, the Visa appen voices. If you're hearing
Speaker 1: voices in your head while I was talking right there,
Speaker 1: it's not you. It actually happened just there on the air.
Speaker 1: It's skill Alexander. What's happening? Party people, Jeff Parl's producing
Speaker 1: number five is here is well. Good morning to Jeffrey
Speaker 1: and ladies and gentlemen joining us for what is a
Speaker 1: Q three MLB derivative show. We'll do other things. We'll
Speaker 1: talk golf with Brady Cannon, and we'll talk about today's
Speaker 1: baseball slate as well. But it is right at the
Speaker 1: one twenty game mark, one twenty one game mark for
Speaker 1: most Major League Baseball teams. So what does our Q
Speaker 1: three MLB derivative show? And joining us for the first
Speaker 1: time for this endeavor, ladies and gentlemen. He's here yesterday,
Speaker 1: he's here today, Star of Jewish follow the Money Here,
Speaker 1: it's Lasdell. Let's Todd Wish. Good morning Todd, Good morning Gil.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Gil and Todd Show, and thanks for coming.
Speaker 1: Thank you for having me. Todd appreciate it. Um you
Speaker 1: uh you excited about little derivatives here man, because we're
Speaker 1: gonna through all these baseball stats, and again we're gonna
Speaker 1: try to determine how much of this is narrative and
Speaker 1: how much of this is predictive moving into the last
Speaker 1: quarter of the season. By the way, I'm if you've
Speaker 1: heard me on this show a couple of times I
Speaker 1: talked about how the Yankees can put any blob of
Speaker 1: meat in a Yankee stadium. You've in a Yankee uniform,
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden they hit the ball out
Speaker 1: of the ballpark. And I said, oh, well, the Yankees
Speaker 1: are probably stealing the signs like the Cardinals did a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. So this guy, David Lionetti, sent
Speaker 1: me a thing on Twitter. It's an article from the
Speaker 1: Boston Globe why the Red Sox are looking for counter
Speaker 1: espionage inside their caps. What they're doing now is they're
Speaker 1: putting they keep switching the signs so they don't get
Speaker 1: people stealing their signs. So like, if Christian Vasca is
Speaker 1: the catcher, maybe it's the third sign one time, it's
Speaker 1: the fourth sign of different time, it's the second sign
Speaker 1: a different time. And I didn't read the whole article,
Speaker 1: but they have like a little cheat sheet in their
Speaker 1: cap as to which sign is the correct sign to
Speaker 1: foil counter to foil people who are trying to steal
Speaker 1: their signs. So stealing signs is a real thing, folks.
Speaker 1: And if you watch these yeah, and if you watch
Speaker 1: The Yankees with Cameron Maybon, Mike Talchman as you like
Speaker 1: to call him, I'm claiming him Brave val Era and
Speaker 1: of course my favorite guy, pizza aficionado. Now I don't
Speaker 1: know this for sure, but I have a feeling he
Speaker 1: likes pizza. Mike Ford down at first base, you're disdained
Speaker 1: from Mike Ford. Actually, Mike Ford, I'm sure is a
Speaker 1: great guy. But you know, you know, when you're fat,
Speaker 1: sometimes you don't like fat and others. It's like a
Speaker 1: psychological thing, you know, you hate what you see in others.
Speaker 1: So because I'm a fat so I've got you know,
Speaker 1: I look at Mike Ford and I go, come on,
Speaker 1: you know you're in the major leagues, you should be, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, in shape. But as opposed as a Mike
Speaker 1: I apologize to you, you're on the Yankees keep stealing
Speaker 1: the signs as opposed to really relating to him and
Speaker 1: finding him lovable. So you what you are suggesting is
Speaker 1: that the Eggies because anyone who puts on a uniform
Speaker 1: all of a sudden becomes amazing. They have to be stealing.
Speaker 1: It's tongue in cheek. I'm staying a tongue in cheek.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying I would bet on it, but I
Speaker 1: saying it's kind of fishy. I understand by the way
Speaker 1: I am claiming Tauchmann, there had to be an Ellis
Speaker 1: Island incident. I just want to point that out. All right,
Speaker 1: let's do uh, let's do some major League baseball stats.
Speaker 1: Now here it is is the Q three Derivative Show,
Speaker 1: and the point of this exercise and and we'll we'll
Speaker 1: intersperson throughout the show will also do today's games. But
Speaker 1: we're going to narrow this down. At first, it's gonna
Speaker 1: be very public domain stuff. And then we're gonna narrow
Speaker 1: it down into the proprietary stuff, which is first five innings. Uh,
Speaker 1: that's not quite propriet to. The first inning stuff is
Speaker 1: super proprietary. Um. But let's start with just the general things.
Speaker 1: These are widely available. We get these from covers dot com.
Speaker 1: Let's give them a shot on this. These are the
Speaker 1: best um in terms of betting stats. Now, we don't
Speaker 1: care about real life here for this exercise, but in
Speaker 1: terms of the betting stats, the single most profitable teams
Speaker 1: in all of baseball a bizarro exerci eyes todd as
Speaker 1: if you bet this team every single game on the side,
Speaker 1: all year long, laying a unit as a dog, risking
Speaker 1: more than a unit to win a unit as a favorite. Uh.
Speaker 1: And even when you do all that in the wash,
Speaker 1: here are your most profitable teams in baseball. Here most
Speaker 1: profitable clubs, it is the Yankees and the Dodgers, both
Speaker 1: at eighty and forty one in real life. See that
Speaker 1: the Yankees would have netted you in that Bizarro exercise
Speaker 1: nearly twenty units, and the Dodgers would have netted you
Speaker 1: eighteen units. So again, that's you bet them every day
Speaker 1: sight unseen, you don't care the opponent whatever. Again, lay
Speaker 1: a unit as a dog, risk more than a unit
Speaker 1: to win a unit as a favorite. And even with
Speaker 1: the Yankees and Dodgers getting dealt big minus numbers right
Speaker 1: more often than not, even doing that, they're so good
Speaker 1: right eight and forty one in real life that they're
Speaker 1: still the most profitable teams in baseball. Well, let's look
Speaker 1: at the math. If they were eight and forty. Let's
Speaker 1: just throw out the one. They would be winning two
Speaker 1: out of every three games if they were minus two
Speaker 1: hundred every game, and I assumed this would be like
Speaker 1: the midpoint line or they're they're just taking whatever their
Speaker 1: line was. So if they were minus two hundred every
Speaker 1: single game this year, they would have broken even if
Speaker 1: you would have bet them every single game. Obviously they there.
Speaker 1: You said, they're up about eighteen units in twenty games,
Speaker 1: so they're average prices is less than the average prices
Speaker 1: probably somewhere in the neighborhood. I mean, I'm just doing
Speaker 1: the math off my off the top of my head,
Speaker 1: but probably one sixty maybe doesn't sound about right. Let
Speaker 1: me think about that. One sixty and forty units forty
Speaker 1: times one sixty is what point is is that they're
Speaker 1: exceeding their break even right there. They're doing better than
Speaker 1: they're breaking there. It is forty times one point six
Speaker 1: is uh sixty four losses. So right there, you know
Speaker 1: eight wins sixty four losses. You know you're talking about
Speaker 1: they're averages right around one sixty. Minnesota, San Francisco at
Speaker 1: Oakland close out the three most profitable teams. This is
Speaker 1: just a money line bets. Now we're talking the Twins
Speaker 1: who uh caught most of baseball by surprise early let's say,
Speaker 1: generally speaking set seven in real life, they would have
Speaker 1: netted you over fourteen units this year. How about the Giants,
Speaker 1: the Giants who are back to five hundred again Todd
Speaker 1: Wishne making the daily mistake of not factoring enough Giants
Speaker 1: magic into his model. Giants up thirteen units for betters. Uh,
Speaker 1: they're largely plus money night after night after night. And
Speaker 1: that's why, you know, you don't have to do better
Speaker 1: than five hundred to have netted thirteen units overall. By
Speaker 1: the way, we'll find out in these splits here momentarily
Speaker 1: how at home they're not profitable, and we see that
Speaker 1: on the screen right there, just a sort of portent
Speaker 1: of things to come. But away, man, they're a cash machine.
Speaker 1: A's by the way, the other Bay Area team who
Speaker 1: the Giants beat last night, they're the fifth most overall
Speaker 1: profitable team at all at baseball. So another interesting point
Speaker 1: about that. In the old days, um, you know, it
Speaker 1: was you almost could never bet a minus two hundred.
Speaker 1: You just couldn't do it and win. And you see
Speaker 1: from these numbers here that it's almost like betting has
Speaker 1: been turned baseball. Betting has been turned it on its head.
Speaker 1: This is what I listen I said before last season,
Speaker 1: Remember I said, very ear lonestly, we're about to enter
Speaker 1: an era of baseball where that chasm between the halves
Speaker 1: and the have knots gets wider and wider. And this year,
Speaker 1: I said earlier in the season, if you listen to
Speaker 1: the show, I said, you almost have to shut off
Speaker 1: your brain betting baseball, and the Yankees and the Dodgers
Speaker 1: being on top of that list is the manifestation of that.
Speaker 1: They're they're huge favorites. Every night, you still would have
Speaker 1: made the most money in baseball betting on them. That
Speaker 1: says it, all right, you know, you know it's not
Speaker 1: shutting off your brain. It's actually using your brain. You
Speaker 1: know what I mean. No, I don't know. I know
Speaker 1: what you're trying to say. But the point is you
Speaker 1: really have to use your brain even more in a sense.
Speaker 1: Value is value. Originally you're gonna think, oh wait, those
Speaker 1: favorites can't make your money. But if you can recognize
Speaker 1: that some of these favorites versus the relative strength of
Speaker 1: the record of the league are not as good as
Speaker 1: it used to be. You know that that's in an effect,
Speaker 1: it's the opposite. You have to use your I understand
Speaker 1: exactly what you mean by that, right, you know, just
Speaker 1: take the favorites. But I'm saying you really fact that
Speaker 1: you have to recalibrate value. Right, you have to recalibrate
Speaker 1: with saying it recalibrate. Thank you, don thank you. That's
Speaker 1: why I'm here, That's why you're here, Rather to be
Speaker 1: my hype man, flavor, my flavor flavor. You know, you're
Speaker 1: going out there and you're being cerebral, and that's what
Speaker 1: we want. We don't want physical we want some cerebral
Speaker 1: Dodd on football, I loved I was lost yesterday. So
Speaker 1: here the least, the least profitable, the teams that have
Speaker 1: hemorrhaged you the most money. Now, this is a bizarro exercise, right.
Speaker 1: If you're going out and you're betting the Tigers every
Speaker 1: night's light unseen, I would suggest to you you're probably
Speaker 1: doing this wrong. Um, but the Tigers. If you bet
Speaker 1: the Tigers every single day of the baseball season, again,
Speaker 1: this is the flip of the Ygges and the Dodgers, right,
Speaker 1: their plus money and big plus money by and large
Speaker 1: when Matthew Boyd's not pitching. Exception to the rule, the
Speaker 1: Tigers are thirty and eighty one. If you bet them
Speaker 1: every night, you're down thirty three units. See. Now here's
Speaker 1: something that I would love to see when they do
Speaker 1: these these you know charts. What about if you bet
Speaker 1: against the Tigers every night, so you wouldn't be up.
Speaker 1: You would be up like thirty seven minus the viig
Speaker 1: correct the other way, but I think you'd still be up.
Speaker 1: But that would be an interesting point as well. It's
Speaker 1: a good point. So it's just if no one's gonna
Speaker 1: bet the Tigers every night, unless you're like some kind
Speaker 1: of crazy, die hard Tiger fan. But what would be
Speaker 1: interesting is how I guess we could figure out because that, yeah,
Speaker 1: that would represent the bookies take right, that's the strattle.
Speaker 1: So we went back the other way, twenty cents the
Speaker 1: other way exactly on every would it be every loss
Speaker 1: or everyone. I'm just trying to think about that now
Speaker 1: because there's a radio audience. Now you're just here getting
Speaker 1: too much, so we're getting too mathematical. No, but I
Speaker 1: understand your your point is a good one, right by
Speaker 1: the way. So, the second most hemorrhaging team for betters
Speaker 1: in baseball this year is the defending World Series champion
Speaker 1: Red Sox. And this is a team that obviously off
Speaker 1: a championship, comes in with high expectations, so there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a lot of minus money on them, particularly early
Speaker 1: in the season, and that cost betters a pretty penny.
Speaker 1: You'd be down twenty six units betting the World's Are's
Speaker 1: Chance blindly all year long as a favorite as a
Speaker 1: dog every single game. Royals, Mariners, Pod Rays, no Surprise,
Speaker 1: three four five. But the Red Sox are kind of
Speaker 1: the you know, one thing is not like the other.
Speaker 1: They're They're the team that stands out. And by the way,
Speaker 1: most years you have one or two or three teams
Speaker 1: that are at the bottom because the expectations or that,
Speaker 1: you know, the money the lines getting dealt on them
Speaker 1: on a daily basis is just not commensurate with their performance.
Speaker 1: It's the Red Sox to get the Booby Prize on
Speaker 1: that this year. By the way, I just did the
Speaker 1: math in my head. Now I might be doing it wrong,
Speaker 1: but I think you'd still be up if you bet
Speaker 1: against the Tigers every game. Somewhere in the neighbor. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think it's something somewhere could be wrong. No, no,
Speaker 1: but that's the point right there. You'd be down thirty
Speaker 1: three if you bet on them, but if you had
Speaker 1: bet against them, you wouldn't be up thirty three about
Speaker 1: still very nicely in thirty And as far as the
Speaker 1: Red Sox, well, that's an obvious you know, this reminds
Speaker 1: me of the Cubs a couple of years ago after
Speaker 1: they won the World Series. That came out and we're
Speaker 1: played five hundred the first half of the year, and
Speaker 1: had you just bet against the Cubs every game, you'd
Speaker 1: have been a bazillion dollars. So this is your Red Sox,
Speaker 1: uh World Series hangover their sixty three and fifty nine.
Speaker 1: But yet, especially at home, look at those home numbers.
Speaker 1: I'm sure tons of that represents all those sale losses
Speaker 1: at minus that's minus three. He's probably a huge portion
Speaker 1: of it. On the road they're only down three, so
Speaker 1: a huge amount of Let's do we have the split
Speaker 1: numbers before we get the splitt in the splits right there,
Speaker 1: I know, But do we have a separate chart of
Speaker 1: the splitter? We don't like the home the top home
Speaker 1: and top yeah, yeah, we have Okay, well before we
Speaker 1: get to that, just one last thing on they have
Speaker 1: the Padres. Look at the Padres away. You would have
Speaker 1: made one United States dollar playing the Padres on road
Speaker 1: based on these numbers. Anyway, with all of this, the
Speaker 1: point of this exercises Okay, that's what's happened the first
Speaker 1: three quarters of the season. Now the endeavor here is
Speaker 1: to now figure out going into the final court of
Speaker 1: the season. Is this just a fun thing to talk
Speaker 1: about in a narrative or is there any predictive value
Speaker 1: to this? And I would suggest on some of these
Speaker 1: things there will be predictive value. On other things, we're
Speaker 1: just kind of talking about it because it's fun to
Speaker 1: talk about, right, But there is some intuitive sense to
Speaker 1: some of the things that moving forward we'll find out
Speaker 1: more that blok to the home road splits just is
Speaker 1: uh really one other point? Yes, the Mariners, if I
Speaker 1: remember correctly, might have been twelve and three to start
Speaker 1: the year and two much so if you take those out,
Speaker 1: they're tiger like. They are tiger like, no question, they're
Speaker 1: tiger like. All right, So now this is again just
Speaker 1: we'll do the home teams. The subset of what We
Speaker 1: just found out the Dodgers, who were second overall. They're
Speaker 1: the number one home team for Baseball bettors this year,
Speaker 1: forty eight and sixteen at home, twenty units uh in
Speaker 1: people's pockets at home, so which means, by the way,
Speaker 1: that they're slightly negative on the road. If I'm not
Speaker 1: mistaken the Dodgers Rangers. I wouldn't have expected the Rangers,
Speaker 1: but they're they're Rangers, very profitable at home. Second most
Speaker 1: profitable team at home because they're thirty five and twenty
Speaker 1: two at home. Astro's Yankees, Cubs and Boyd. The Cubs
Speaker 1: have a stark home road split that we keep saying
Speaker 1: night after night. Cubs get fourteen k's from Kintana last
Speaker 1: night and managed to lose again. They're two and three
Speaker 1: on their current road trip, which has five more games
Speaker 1: left in and and uh. The St. Louis Cardinals are
Speaker 1: not gonna have the dough in the NL Central one back.
Speaker 1: But the Cubs fifth most profitable home team. Least profitable
Speaker 1: home teams, Oh what he notes the Tigers and the
Speaker 1: Red Sox at the bottom. There what is perhaps the
Speaker 1: usual suspects. If I could say that, let's just go
Speaker 1: real quick to ther way teams here this is just overall.
Speaker 1: These are widely available. Again, these are courtesy of covers.
Speaker 1: Most profitable road teams, the San Francisco Giants, Los Gantees
Speaker 1: will be up for almost fourteen units for betters who
Speaker 1: closely followed by the Twinkies and the Rays Braves are up.
Speaker 1: Those are the four teams that would have netted you
Speaker 1: double digit units just betting them on the road blindly.
Speaker 1: Least profitable road teams the aforementioned Chicago Cubs, worst road
Speaker 1: team money wise in Baseball. The Marlins are the only
Speaker 1: team worst record wise in the National League in real life,
Speaker 1: but because the Marlins are always getting plus money and
Speaker 1: the Cubbies are often times in minus even on the road,
Speaker 1: Cubs would have hemorrhaged you fifteen units if you just
Speaker 1: let bet them blindly on the road. They're twenty three
Speaker 1: and thirty six on the road, and they lead a
Speaker 1: division in baseball. Royals, Mets, Tigers, Astros, Tigers on all
Speaker 1: is the one that really shocks me. Then, but yet
Speaker 1: down eight seventy, which tells you they're always big money.
Speaker 1: You know they're still on the road. They're still huge money.
Speaker 1: By the way, last night. Very strange circumstance with game
Speaker 1: two of that double header, and we talked a little
Speaker 1: bit about this off air. Garrett Cole was expected to
Speaker 1: be the Game two starter, and he was what like
Speaker 1: minus three sixty something like that. Some some people are
Speaker 1: saying three, maybe three, It depends where you were shopping.
Speaker 1: But really there was a pitching change really late, like
Speaker 1: really late. It wasn't like people had had a chance
Speaker 1: to really adjust to it. Yeah, so the line didn't
Speaker 1: really have a didn't move that much off it. Usually
Speaker 1: they they move it automatically. Thought it was very strange
Speaker 1: because who was Davinski Nsky was went off three sixty
Speaker 1: and I was like, that can't be right. I don't
Speaker 1: remember a circumstances like that that was so close to
Speaker 1: game time. And then I didn't even I didn't even
Speaker 1: realize that that was the line going into a Devinsky
Speaker 1: until someone like someone mentioned it later. I was like, oh,
Speaker 1: I didn't notice it either until it was like in
Speaker 1: the third inning and I looked up. I said Devinsky
Speaker 1: minus three sixty. Usually they air move it when there's
Speaker 1: when there's a pitching It's not like anybody moves it
Speaker 1: with the with the money very They just quickly air
Speaker 1: move it, and I would think they would at least
Speaker 1: move it down like to exactly paying attention at that moment.
Speaker 1: Of course, they lose the game, and of course they
Speaker 1: lose the second game. Right it's right four to one
Speaker 1: to the White Sox. Um they had a lot of
Speaker 1: their their hitters out in the second game. We'll come back.
Speaker 1: We'll do the best and worst run line teams for
Speaker 1: better than all of baseball. Then we'll talk first five intings.
Speaker 1: We'll talk up well and we'll get the first five. Eventually,
Speaker 1: we'll talk umpires, will talk starting pitchers. We'll do it
Speaker 1: all the Q three MLB derivative show. Todd Wishnev is
Speaker 1: here as well as Jeff Parlay, Gill Alexander right on
Speaker 1: a numbers game at Vicent. Welcome back to a numbers
Speaker 1: game with Jill Alexander, produce the number five. Jeff Parls
Speaker 1: tells me that we got Charles Barkley back in the
Speaker 1: intro of the show. Is that true? I stepped on him.
Speaker 1: We we all stepped on him. We didn't realize where
Speaker 1: Barkley was in the intro, so I gotta let him breathe.
Speaker 1: It's been a big Twitter discussion the last It's amazing
Speaker 1: how how much the folks love Chuck. Do we have
Speaker 1: Barkley on the fade out or something? All Right, I
Speaker 1: gotta lit a breathe. Well here, next time we get
Speaker 1: tweets beating the book, I love you all for tweeting us.
Speaker 1: Um Okay, more Baseball best worst run line teams in
Speaker 1: all baseball gain bizarrow exercise when you're betting these teams
Speaker 1: on the run line each and every single game of
Speaker 1: the season, which no one is actually doing, but it
Speaker 1: gives a sense of which teams have been profitable, at
Speaker 1: least profitable for betters. Remember run line. When your favorite,
Speaker 1: you're giving a run and a half. When you're a dog,
Speaker 1: you are getting a run and a half. So a
Speaker 1: lot of one run out comes will affect these numbers.
Speaker 1: I like to call it todd a de facto power ranking,
Speaker 1: because when you win, you win big. When you lose,
Speaker 1: sometimes you keep it closer. Oftentimes, if you're on the
Speaker 1: on the most profitable list most profitable run line teams
Speaker 1: in baseball, excuse me, the New York Yankees. No surprise there,
Speaker 1: they'd have you up thirty one units plus. Again, these
Speaker 1: courtesy of covers dot Com. The Rangers and A's Diamondbacks
Speaker 1: and Indians wrap up the top five run line teams
Speaker 1: in baseball for betters. Now, it's a big drop from
Speaker 1: the Yankees to the Rangers, right, it's eighteen units. Like
Speaker 1: the Yankees are far in a way the best run
Speaker 1: line team in baseball this year because when they win,
Speaker 1: they crush you. Probably I'm sorry, no, no, but that was.
Speaker 1: But the Rangers, as diamond Backs and Indians probably surprise
Speaker 1: a lot of people. Diamond Backs certainly. I think the
Speaker 1: Yankees kind of makes sense because of course they and
Speaker 1: then they have the decent relief so they don't let
Speaker 1: you back for a one run win when they should
Speaker 1: have won by two or three. And then, um, the
Speaker 1: Texas Rangers kind of makes sense to me because you
Speaker 1: don't really ever see the Rangers win a close game,
Speaker 1: you know, because they have a terrible bullpen. They either
Speaker 1: just we're killing the ball and winning or just losing,
Speaker 1: you know, and now they don't even hit. But I'm
Speaker 1: saying earlier in the year, but if the Rangers are
Speaker 1: sixty eight and fifty one and run line games, doesn't
Speaker 1: that suggest that they're losing a lot of one run games.
Speaker 1: Probably well, they would imagine, and he goes to Todd's point,
Speaker 1: you could see them have leads in the bullpen. Blue
Speaker 1: it a lot earlier in the year for Texas, they
Speaker 1: lost a bunch of one run games when they were
Speaker 1: getting the run and a half. I am, I am
Speaker 1: efforting as we speak the Rangers one run record just
Speaker 1: to see if it, uh, if it makes sense, and
Speaker 1: they know they're nineteen and nineteen in one run game,
Speaker 1: so that is a very curious record. Now on the
Speaker 1: on the least profitable, this is saying if on the
Speaker 1: run line, if you're minus one and a half or
Speaker 1: both both is kind of confusing. A little bit is
Speaker 1: a little bit, yes, because you don't know how should
Speaker 1: be two sets of stets minus one and half in
Speaker 1: plus one and a half minus one. I've always said that.
Speaker 1: I think you're right about that. But for the purposes
Speaker 1: of day, Tigers once again the least of the least, right,
Speaker 1: twenty seven units down on the run line, it doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: They're just bad. Red Sox once again second worst on
Speaker 1: the run line. Rocky Zose and Pirates wrapping up that list,
Speaker 1: and Rockies make sense right because they play at corps
Speaker 1: and so you are more likely to lose games by
Speaker 1: more than a run. And the other thing is the
Speaker 1: Detroit Tigers are probably plus a run and a half
Speaker 1: out of those a hundred and sixteen games. I bet
Speaker 1: you the run and a half a hundred times. So
Speaker 1: you don't like you don't like that one. I agree
Speaker 1: with you. I understand what you're saying. By the way,
Speaker 1: Jeff Parley, you had a point about the Astros to
Speaker 1: Todd who was saying before well, and also I would
Speaker 1: imagine it impacted that list too, because the Astros were
Speaker 1: minus to seventy or whatever the heck they were on
Speaker 1: Sunday when they lost on the run line. Also, but
Speaker 1: they lost yesterday minus three sixty. They lost almost minus
Speaker 1: five dollars on Sunday. So there's basically there's a little
Speaker 1: over eight units right there. So the road road money
Speaker 1: record is what it is. Yeah, the road money line.
Speaker 1: They lost eight units two in the last three games, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's incredible. Um, but surprize of you don't even have
Speaker 1: the r J special. We caught the r J special
Speaker 1: out in the sports book. RJ likes to lay the
Speaker 1: j Alman's guy. He lays the two and a half,
Speaker 1: sometimes in the ridiculous lines, and so we call it
Speaker 1: the r J Special? Did you don't have the two?
Speaker 1: Did you want to share with people with? R J
Speaker 1: says about some of the employees. This is one of
Speaker 1: the one particular employer at this I know you don't
Speaker 1: want to share that. I think that should be left unset.
Speaker 1: He really is a fan. He's a fan of Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's a good, great guy. He is a great guy. Um, okay,
Speaker 1: let's go to now. This is for let is to
Speaker 1: the pictures real quick starting pitchers, most least profitable starting pitchers.
Speaker 1: So this is I don't know how you feel about
Speaker 1: this again, Todd, but this is when this particular picture
Speaker 1: or pictures takes the hill. This is how his team
Speaker 1: ultimately performs with a win loss record and then the
Speaker 1: associated profit or loss. This is interesting. Well, it's interesting
Speaker 1: because sometimes it doesn't have anything to do with the starter, right,
Speaker 1: They can have a marginal performance, but the team just
Speaker 1: happens to come through for them, or or the opo
Speaker 1: of that. Do we have these at all, Jeff? And
Speaker 1: all with the starting pitchers, I'll read them off here. Okay,
Speaker 1: give me the most profitable starting pitcher. So I'll read
Speaker 1: them off here. Domingo Herman is number one. You're getting
Speaker 1: your plus a little over to a little over twelve
Speaker 1: units on Herman Andrew kash near her. Let's let's clarify
Speaker 1: why Herman. The Yankees are seventeen and three in games
Speaker 1: that her mom takes the hill. Yeah. Wow, he just
Speaker 1: shows up and they win baseball games because Talman crew
Speaker 1: go crazy. You know. I think there's something to that, actually,
Speaker 1: because I've seen, you know, I noticed this on uh,
Speaker 1: really good teams when they lose. Sometimes it's when they're
Speaker 1: big starters in or something, and then I don't know,
Speaker 1: I don't have any data to back this up. Yeah,
Speaker 1: Josh Towers would say it's a random okay, but but
Speaker 1: but to your but to your point, it feels like
Speaker 1: that that certain teams, like the good teams know when
Speaker 1: they have a guy on the mound that they have
Speaker 1: to pull around, pull across for them, and they hit better.
Speaker 1: I don't know if that's true again, and probably is
Speaker 1: just totally random. One of those random Orioles Cy Young
Speaker 1: winners in the eighties. I don't know if it's Gotti
Speaker 1: McGregor or Steve Stone, someone would have to check on this, Jim.
Speaker 1: But like, but like the Orioles would never lose when
Speaker 1: they were on the hill, like they were flann again.
Speaker 1: One of these guys would just have a ridiculous and
Speaker 1: it was you know, in those days we were into
Speaker 1: analytics as much. Right, so it's like, oh, okay, he
Speaker 1: never loses this when lost, record is unbelievable. But like
Speaker 1: they would just show up for him every time, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: some some alb al bumbery with the gloves sticking out
Speaker 1: the bash. Oh Gary Reddicky we interrupted, Jeff Parls. So
Speaker 1: it's Domingo Herman. Here they are on the screen, Jeff,
Speaker 1: did you catch that? Andrew Kashner had his first career
Speaker 1: saved last night. Andrew Kashner the new Red Sox closer.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying right now. By the way, Jeff,
Speaker 1: Jeff and I were watching at the same time. We
Speaker 1: were on the phone, and he looked fun. He looked great. Yeah, uh,
Speaker 1: Kashner's number two. So these are again the most profitable
Speaker 1: starters in all baseball this year if you bet that
Speaker 1: team blindly when they started a game. So the Red
Speaker 1: Sox are eleven and six when oh yeah, the Orioles
Speaker 1: and the Red Sox. Remember he had with the Orioles,
Speaker 1: he was in plus money so much time that the
Speaker 1: that the r o I was huge. But the teams
Speaker 1: that he has pitched for, Orioles and Red Sox eleven
Speaker 1: and six, when he's taken the hill, Brandon Woodruff sixteen
Speaker 1: in four, well he makes that makes a lot of
Speaker 1: sense because if you think about it, the guys that
Speaker 1: don't come in with big uh you know that come
Speaker 1: into the season with big reputations, aren't going to have
Speaker 1: big numbers. So if they have big, big years, they're
Speaker 1: gonna have giant r o I. Because because of that
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense. Brandon Woodruff of the same
Speaker 1: thing with Ryu Riyu. Wasn't exactly considered the best starter
Speaker 1: in baseball? Was he? He wasn't considered the best starter
Speaker 1: or the second best on his own team. Point taken
Speaker 1: Wade Miley, my favorite guy. Wait for those listening on
Speaker 1: on radio, Todd, let's explain what's going on here. This
Speaker 1: is not a television broadcasting. Sup I thought they could
Speaker 1: see the Brandon wood Ruff again. Brewer sixteen and four.
Speaker 1: When he takes the hill, they're up almost eleven units,
Speaker 1: betting them blindly. Hungen Ryu fourth place, seventeen and five,
Speaker 1: Dodgers seventeen and five in games that new she started
Speaker 1: up almost ten units. Wade Miley is, as TADJS pointed out,
Speaker 1: seventeen and seven, the Astros seventeen and seven with Miley
Speaker 1: on the hill. So and look at that. It's interesting
Speaker 1: because he's there nine six and they're ten games over five,
Speaker 1: So he probably hasn't been that big a favorite. Wade Miley.
Speaker 1: That's right. And then the least uh in r o I.
Speaker 1: In terms of the pitchers, the ones that have hemorred
Speaker 1: you the most money, no surprise looked. This list is
Speaker 1: always riddled with big names because big names have big juice,
Speaker 1: and when they have a season that is not stellar,
Speaker 1: this is what happens very quickly. Chris Sale your least profitable,
Speaker 1: your biggest hemorrhager of money um in all of baseball.
Speaker 1: As a starter, because the socks are nine and fifteen
Speaker 1: in games in which he started that it costs you
Speaker 1: twenty units. So if all you did was bet, Chris
Speaker 1: Sale starts your twenty units down, and then a lot
Speaker 1: of them were at home where he was even bigger
Speaker 1: juice that's all right, Jacob deGrom. The Mets are nine
Speaker 1: in fifteen when he takes the hill. Just they haven't
Speaker 1: been as big favorites overall as Sale has been with
Speaker 1: the Red Sox, so he would have cost you a
Speaker 1: fifth team plus units, not twenty plus like Sale. Max
Speaker 1: Scherzer third in terms of the hemorrhage list over ten
Speaker 1: units for betters this year, because the Nats are nine
Speaker 1: and the eleven, and then you've got Tyler Molly and
Speaker 1: uh Aaron Sanchez, Aaron Sanche Well, Aaron Sanchez one of
Speaker 1: the most underachieving pictures by advanced stats thus far this year.
Speaker 1: We'll come back, we'll do umpires, and then we'll get
Speaker 1: into the proprietary stuff first five and specifically proprietary on
Speaker 1: the first inning stuff. Right here on the Q three
Speaker 1: MLB Derivative Show will do today's slate Todd Wish Nev
Speaker 1: alongside here on a numbers game at Visa. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with you. Alexander Basins Pro Football
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Speaker 1: are are on a we all, let me say that again.
Speaker 1: We all are on a chart there with all of
Speaker 1: our pro football picks. Even I managed to show up
Speaker 1: on this one with a late. Wait. Wait's the ass
Speaker 1: Lombardi on the air, Wait what was the deadline? He's like,
Speaker 1: it was today, Gil, So I just put it in today,
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna get it there late, I'm told. But
Speaker 1: we all have our picks division by division, in the
Speaker 1: NFL Conferences, super Bowl, and then individual awards as well.
Speaker 1: But fifty two issues of Point Spread Weekly if you
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Speaker 1: com slash bet football. This is some umpires real quick.
Speaker 1: Uh this year umpires the most reliable over umpires, the
Speaker 1: most reliable under umpires. This for pre early, for totals better,
Speaker 1: but also for side betters. And again you can get
Speaker 1: umpire assignments at sites like stat Fox, that kind of
Speaker 1: thing that you know as early as anywhere, you guess
Speaker 1: Alan Porter is a very big over before. How did
Speaker 1: you guess Todd WISHNEP number four? Look, I didn't even
Speaker 1: look at that. The reason I knew is because Antoine,
Speaker 1: this guy who sits in the fist pound. That's a
Speaker 1: nice one, right there. Can we reach out there with
Speaker 1: us in my living room here at the South point
Speaker 1: Um Sports Book, we always talk about Alan Porter being
Speaker 1: a super over and that's how I knew that name.
Speaker 1: So Alan Porter, what you're saying is Alan Porter's strike
Speaker 1: zone is is the size of a thimble. Yeah, he's
Speaker 1: not giving you any edge strikes, so you better Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, you better have some major movement on your pitches,
Speaker 1: all right. But if these names come up now, we
Speaker 1: don't have borchered on the show to sort of compare
Speaker 1: with historical analysis. He was unable to make it this morning.
Speaker 1: But your best over umpires this year anywhere? Anyway? Tom
Speaker 1: Woodring six out of seven games that he's been behind
Speaker 1: right there place. Why does that guy only have seven
Speaker 1: behind the home But it's just how assignments when the
Speaker 1: other guys have like nineteen, that's just how they're used
Speaker 1: and their their assignments. Nobody explain that to me if
Speaker 1: they're I don't know the umpires, how they work their schedule,
Speaker 1: A very simple todd Some guys shift between Triple A
Speaker 1: and the major leagues, just like players. Yes, so top
Speaker 1: wood Ring is a guy who didn't know there was
Speaker 1: of vampires. Yeah, there are guys who will get more
Speaker 1: assignments and then some people get more home plate assign exactly,
Speaker 1: But did you know they pull up umpires from Triple
Speaker 1: actually did? Well? Look at you guys, Okay, I learned
Speaker 1: something today. Anyway, Continuing, Top would Ring six of seven
Speaker 1: behind home plate. I've gone over Jeff Kellogg ten of
Speaker 1: thirteen when he's been calling balls and strikes have gone
Speaker 1: over John Bacon. He's the very non posher strikes on yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't know if we include John Bacon that was
Speaker 1: that was a mats of ball, hit it out of
Speaker 1: the park. Uh, three or four games. There's only four
Speaker 1: games sample size, and we're not gonna read it to
Speaker 1: John Bacon. But there's your Alan Porter fourteen and nineteen
Speaker 1: have gone over when he's gonna calling balls and strikes.
Speaker 1: And Alfonso Marquez sixteen of twenty two have gone over
Speaker 1: when he has been behind hope late. Now these you know, again,
Speaker 1: narrative or predictive. Here's the thing when we have board
Speaker 1: and we're able to really determine a lot of these
Speaker 1: guys consistent with their careers, uh, in terms of of
Speaker 1: going over under. Here the most reliable under guys Nick
Speaker 1: Marley six of eight behind home plate unders, Kirwin Danley
Speaker 1: twelve of sixteen under, Joe West sixteen twenty three under,
Speaker 1: Andy Fletcher thirteen of nineteen under, and Jansen Visconti fifteen
Speaker 1: of twenty two have gone under when he has called balls.
Speaker 1: These are guys that just want to get back to
Speaker 1: the buffet. If you, if you, if you watch baseball
Speaker 1: like I do, yeah, a lot, you will notice that
Speaker 1: there are guys that call strikes six to seven inches
Speaker 1: off the plate, and you know they're just thinking, let's
Speaker 1: get back to the buffet and back to the hotel.
Speaker 1: So let me give you a case in point of that.
Speaker 1: You see the ninth inning of the Cubs game last night.
Speaker 1: Anybody who's watching this is nodding right now and going,
Speaker 1: oh my god. Um. I want to say it was
Speaker 1: one man on and nobody out, but don't hold any
Speaker 1: of that. The Cubs were down two to the Reds.
Speaker 1: They ended up losing by two to the Reds right
Speaker 1: up the Phillies. I'm sorry. Yeah, they play the Reds
Speaker 1: before them, So they ended up losing by two, four
Speaker 1: to two. They were down four to two in the
Speaker 1: ninth and was it Tony Kemp that was up? And
Speaker 1: it was a three to pitch which was not only high,
Speaker 1: but was super outside Kemp, Like Kemp would have had
Speaker 1: to look like a little leaguer if to make contact
Speaker 1: with it, Like we just had to like wildly swing
Speaker 1: at it. Strike three. Called talk about wanting to just
Speaker 1: get out of there. It's unbelievable. I mean, I'm I'm joking,
Speaker 1: but I'm not really joking. We talked about with the Dodgers,
Speaker 1: Padres game a couple of weeks ago, and I was
Speaker 1: on the dodge, like I could have completely changed the game.
Speaker 1: Um just like it called strikes that were just way
Speaker 1: out of the strikes and you're like, come on, we
Speaker 1: need some sort of robotics here for this. It's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: And then the other one is where there they stand
Speaker 1: like all the way to one side of the catcher,
Speaker 1: and then the catcher puts his glove over on that
Speaker 1: side and then he reaches across while it's still fully
Speaker 1: in the strike zone and it's you could see it's
Speaker 1: in the box because a lot of these games have
Speaker 1: the box and will bisect the box. It's so down,
Speaker 1: it's not down the middle, but it's on it's in clearly,
Speaker 1: it's not even on the edge, and they miss it.
Speaker 1: And because it's so far on the other side, and
Speaker 1: not only do you miss it, do you wonder if
Speaker 1: they're like, well, I'm not going to give him credit
Speaker 1: for that because the target wasn't there too. Oh, there's
Speaker 1: so many of those things in baseball, and this this
Speaker 1: reminds when I was reading an article yesterday UM online
Speaker 1: on Twitter. They had some article where they rated the
Speaker 1: home broadcasting guys from each team, and you know, like,
Speaker 1: and I hear a lot of them because I'm the
Speaker 1: retard out there or I'm the mentally challenged person out there,
Speaker 1: whose second whose second best to Kype? And uh, they
Speaker 1: were way up there there, they were way up And
Speaker 1: I get the box. So I listened to all the
Speaker 1: different games that I want to hear, And of course
Speaker 1: I thought the Mets would be way up there because
Speaker 1: I of Keith her nandez Ron Darling and Gary Cohne.
Speaker 1: Of course they were like in the top three or something.
Speaker 1: But I knew right off off the bat if this
Speaker 1: was gonna be a good ratings, the Pirates would be
Speaker 1: way down because I can't even listen to the Pirates
Speaker 1: it's so bored interesting. Nine they were twenty nine. The
Speaker 1: Tigers guys gotten a scuffle last year. Two they fought
Speaker 1: each other, I mean the new one with with with
Speaker 1: with Kirk Gibson sounding like he's high on pot um
Speaker 1: is not you have you ever heard Kirk Gibson, by
Speaker 1: the way, a game, it's us of Todd Wishing's not
Speaker 1: representative of numbers game. He's like, and uh, it's like
Speaker 1: real real, Are you sure that it's just disinteresting product.
Speaker 1: I'm sure that's a that's a good point as Michigan
Speaker 1: do they have recreational weed yet? Well, well we'll google that. Yes, yes,
Speaker 1: we'll google that. We'll come back, we'll resume with the
Speaker 1: first five and the first dating is on the Derivative Show,
Speaker 1: and we'll get to today's slate. We'll do it all
Speaker 1: on a numbers game right here at Visa. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to Numbers Game with Jill Alexander. We left that a
Speaker 1: conversation hanging about the that list of the best local
Speaker 1: announced baseball this radio or television television, Yeah TV, And
Speaker 1: I guessed correctly that San Francisco gizs Dwayne Kuiper and
Speaker 1: Mike Cruco, who are just an institution? There are top five?
Speaker 1: You said, Um, who were some of the others in
Speaker 1: the top five? San Diego interesting? The Mets. Um, the
Speaker 1: Yankees were not? Huh, Yankees were not? It was San Diego,
Speaker 1: the Mets, Oakland A's oh what Glenn Kuiper and Ray
Speaker 1: Fasse and um, Dallas Braden right, is any part of it?
Speaker 1: He's also he might be part of But I and
Speaker 1: I also guest off air, I guessed dead last, and
Speaker 1: I feel bad that I guessed it because I don't
Speaker 1: think they should be dead last, but I I knew
Speaker 1: that they would be somewhere, and that's the Nationals with
Speaker 1: f p F S GIL. I have the actual list
Speaker 1: in front of me. Todd was slightly off on the
Speaker 1: actual list a little bit, but not terribly. Nats were last.
Speaker 1: That's got a got a hardy one point five is
Speaker 1: to make the point of I knew the Pirates were
Speaker 1: going to be terrible and they came into Well, the
Speaker 1: Pirates do this weird thing where they rotate five guys
Speaker 1: between radio and television, so there's never consistency, so they
Speaker 1: don't announced the game. It's just like they're dead air.
Speaker 1: If the can I just say, Pearls knows his announcing team.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Parls, we're talking off air. Parls can
Speaker 1: give you like inside like the third string and answer
Speaker 1: on this. It's amazing. Shout out five of six sports
Speaker 1: Gary Thorne and uh in Baltimore? Is he in top five?
Speaker 1: I'm pulling it up. Number one. I was surprised at
Speaker 1: the and their and their good crew or still in
Speaker 1: company in San Diego were number one, which I was
Speaker 1: surprised that they're very good. By the way. Apparently Jim
Speaker 1: Cott is doing twins games now, which I did not
Speaker 1: realize the Yankee games for a while. Number one is
Speaker 1: uh number one San Diego, number two, San Francisco, number three,
Speaker 1: the Mets, number four, Erry Thorne and Company in Baltimore.
Speaker 1: Number five was the Dodgers. The Dodgers were number The
Speaker 1: Dodgers were five, the Angels are six. I was surprised
Speaker 1: I wasn't mentioned because here at the South Point, you
Speaker 1: were not mentioned. Yeah, I'll tell you why you do
Speaker 1: games here. I do when I have a team and
Speaker 1: one of my guys is about to go yard, you know,
Speaker 1: I'm like, it's way back picks everybody Tennis picks in
Speaker 1: people you get to I want to tell you what
Speaker 1: one of the guys, this guy digs out there, he goes,
Speaker 1: you know, Todd, I couldn't watch a single baseball game,
Speaker 1: you know, if I was just by myself, he goes,
Speaker 1: I come here and I watched him with you. You
Speaker 1: make it exciting, really people. Sure there's also people annoyed
Speaker 1: as well, So people who want the wish and have
Speaker 1: play by play. You come to the South Point, you
Speaker 1: get I'm sure there's half people annoyed half people enjoying
Speaker 1: you might want to probably enjoying one's maybe not. Uh,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm sure something coming back more derivatives. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with kill Alexander, We get sex,
Speaker 1: we get tweets. Chris Felika, friend of show, friend of network,
Speaker 1: was piling on when we're going through all those old
Speaker 1: Orioles in the eighties, he goes, Dim Stoddard, Yes, that's
Speaker 1: another great one. Uh. And then my buddy E who
Speaker 1: knows of such things, he points out, I think there's
Speaker 1: a great point about the baseball announcers and that the
Speaker 1: San Diego Padres broadcast team ended up number one on
Speaker 1: the favorites list. Uh. He points out Mark Grant and
Speaker 1: Don Rcillo, he said, are awesome, and they gotta be
Speaker 1: because the team sucks so bad. Same with the Baltimore Orials.
Speaker 1: I mean, think about all the space you've got to
Speaker 1: fill when your team, especially when your team is awful.
Speaker 1: So it's also the case for years when the Mets
Speaker 1: weren't good. That's why that crew also is highly rated,
Speaker 1: able to fill space. Well, they're so good, Keith Hernandez
Speaker 1: and Ron Darling, and they're just so good. And Gary Cohen.
Speaker 1: They're really really I actually like listening to them, you know,
Speaker 1: just regular here at MLB teams will will resume the
Speaker 1: Q three derivatives here. So now we're talking first five innings.
Speaker 1: So again, what if this is just narrative? What if
Speaker 1: this is predictive? What can we actually use here to
Speaker 1: help ourselves make bets moving forward? First five innings? Major
Speaker 1: League Baseball? Now, from team rankings, are friends over there,
Speaker 1: Tom Federico and company. Over their team rankings, they called
Speaker 1: together the first five innings runs per game. So, just
Speaker 1: from just a raw data standpoint, what's the team that
Speaker 1: plates the most runs in the first five innings? Pictures
Speaker 1: that they face, aside, lineups, aside, what's the club? What
Speaker 1: are the clubs that played the most runs in the
Speaker 1: first five innings? Minnesota Twins three point five one runs
Speaker 1: per first five innings. They are the most prolific offensive
Speaker 1: team just on that average runs plated in the first
Speaker 1: five No surprise the Yankees or second, No surprises, Red
Speaker 1: Sox Astros, Maybe the Diamondbacks are a little bit of
Speaker 1: a surprise, but those are your top five largely, no
Speaker 1: surprises there, Twinkies, obviously, with all those home runs this year,
Speaker 1: trying to get the three d home runs for God's sakes,
Speaker 1: not a surprise. Now the lowest is interesting to me
Speaker 1: because I always say this, this is so representative of
Speaker 1: folks who you know, you make a first five inning
Speaker 1: bet on these teams, and it's the experience. It's not
Speaker 1: only that you've got your money tied up, it's the
Speaker 1: experience of having to live through these teams in the
Speaker 1: first five. They are so anemic offensively that you know,
Speaker 1: like it's just torture watching these teams. And the Miami
Speaker 1: Marlins this, I mean, this is a great, uh sort
Speaker 1: of poop poo platter of the worst teams. And these
Speaker 1: are these largely why these teams are just not among
Speaker 1: baseball's elite. To be kind, Miami Marlins, they played less
Speaker 1: than two runs, fewer than two runs per first five
Speaker 1: one point nine three. You're betting on the Marlins, You're
Speaker 1: living through that. That's not fun. Giants not much better,
Speaker 1: Tigers not much better two point one one, two point one.
Speaker 1: That is the the five hundred magical team of the decade.
Speaker 1: San Francisco Giants three World Series titles. By the way,
Speaker 1: is it an even here? But are these stats from
Speaker 1: this year or from this is this year, this is
Speaker 1: just this year. That's the first five runs per game.
Speaker 1: Follow along. I was making a joke because you're sorry, Giant,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, it's right, I get it. Sorry. Chicago White
Speaker 1: Ox fourth worst. Now the Cardinals. You've made this point before.
Speaker 1: The Cardinals, who right now are ensconced as the number
Speaker 1: two wild card team in the National League. And they
Speaker 1: and they only score two point Todd's expert analysis right there?
Speaker 1: Could you read that they can't hit the ball two
Speaker 1: point and here it is corroborated by the numbers by
Speaker 1: the day to two point three one runs per first
Speaker 1: five and yet they're in the playoffs if it starts today,
Speaker 1: you know. And by the way, and by the way,
Speaker 1: there one game behind the Cubs in the NL Central
Speaker 1: one because it's a stinker division. It is a stinker division.
Speaker 1: By the way, Cubs are no good, um pretty good, Todd.
Speaker 1: Since they stink. That seems to be a prerequisite for
Speaker 1: the Cardinals winning a World Series, is that in the
Speaker 1: middle of August the team stinks. Look at oh six
Speaker 1: and two thousand eleven. I don't think this team is
Speaker 1: winning the World Series. I have an off the grid.
Speaker 1: Mattawa Mono bet with my buddy, who's the greatest sports
Speaker 1: better of all my friends and everybody anybody I know,
Speaker 1: And we get in these sports arguments and we always
Speaker 1: settle it by just making a bet. And we ever
Speaker 1: talked about like that that that ends the art, you know,
Speaker 1: So it's like, okay, well, if you feel so strongly
Speaker 1: about it, smart man, let's make a bet. So we
Speaker 1: have a bet Cubs to make the playoffs, Cubs to
Speaker 1: not make the playoffs, and you're on the not make
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I got him at plus two hundred, to
Speaker 1: which he responded, well, I got a great line because
Speaker 1: the draft Kings number is the Cubs to make the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and like minus five seventy six. I'm like, well, if
Speaker 1: you think that line is any good, you're ridiculous, right.
Speaker 1: So we have that going the rest of the year.
Speaker 1: So we're very involved in how the Cubs do on
Speaker 1: a night tonight basis. By the way, what was interesting
Speaker 1: about that. I don't mean to us the story, but
Speaker 1: when you were talking about the first five I'm sure
Speaker 1: there's some math people out there who can tell us
Speaker 1: are runs evenly distributed in all innings? Now I don't
Speaker 1: have never done the data this, but I can just
Speaker 1: tell you from watching all the games, the fifth inning
Speaker 1: seems to have a lot of runs. There's no way
Speaker 1: there's equal distribution. I would love if somebody could like
Speaker 1: twitter out what the what the distribution of runs per
Speaker 1: inning is in a regular ball game. I'm going to
Speaker 1: guess at the fifth inning is a big runs inning.
Speaker 1: You can twitter it out or you can tweet it out,
Speaker 1: whichever you want to do. I call it twittering because
Speaker 1: tweeting what is what is what does Jimmy Vicar call it?
Speaker 1: What does he call it twexting or something? He has
Speaker 1: some he made up word by the way, yet to
Speaker 1: see Jimmy says he's been back. Well, you just have
Speaker 1: you're you're just not here at the right time. That's
Speaker 1: all it is. I know. So Now, opponents, if you're curious, opponents,
Speaker 1: what do team's opponents played per first five runs? Because
Speaker 1: you want to see the defensive side as well. The
Speaker 1: Dodgers are the best at muting runs in the first
Speaker 1: five innings. They're they're the best at run prevention first
Speaker 1: five inninges Dodgers. Basically, they're starting pitching staff turns every
Speaker 1: opponent into the Miami Marlins first five. That's really good.
Speaker 1: They only give up one point nine runs per first five.
Speaker 1: The Rays, Reds, Gnats, and Astros. And there's no surprises there, right,
Speaker 1: because well, the Rays might be to some people because
Speaker 1: the Rays use an opener a lot. So the Rays
Speaker 1: give them credit, right, give them credit for how they
Speaker 1: manipulate their starting staff. The opener strategy works for them.
Speaker 1: And there's the nu miracle representation of that with the Dodgers, Reds, Nationals,
Speaker 1: and Astros. Very intuitive because you're like, oh, yeah, those
Speaker 1: are the embarrassment of riches starting staffs. All those teams,
Speaker 1: including the Reds who have now recently acquired Trevor Bauer,
Speaker 1: but they've got Luis Castillo Sonny Gray as well. But
Speaker 1: the Gnats with Strasburg and Scherzer and Corbin, the Astros
Speaker 1: with good Lord everybody right, Verlander, cole on down the
Speaker 1: line cranky now. And then there's the Dodgers, who, again
Speaker 1: we said Hanenru might be the best picture on their
Speaker 1: team this year. But would you take them even, you know,
Speaker 1: second in a playoff rotation? I don't know that you
Speaker 1: would with that team with Walker Bueler and Clayton kershel
Speaker 1: on the same staff, by the way, most allowed first five,
Speaker 1: the Orioles on the Orioles Small network three point six too.
Speaker 1: That's who they That's how much they give up first five. Mariners, Rockies,
Speaker 1: Rockies play at core, so that's always on a curve.
Speaker 1: Pirates and Rangers all of them give up more than
Speaker 1: three runs per first five, with the Orioles given up
Speaker 1: three point six to leading the way. Leading in quotes.
Speaker 1: Just think how bad the Rockies aren't hitting when they're
Speaker 1: not in the first on the other chart, like they
Speaker 1: should be in the top five just because they get
Speaker 1: to play in that stupid stadium, but they're not. That
Speaker 1: just shows you how bad they are on the road.
Speaker 1: And you know what I mean, that's kind of interesting.
Speaker 1: Joe Osborne puts together the first five records for these teams,
Speaker 1: so we've sort of buried the headline in the first
Speaker 1: five because those are just the raw numbers in terms
Speaker 1: of output and and input if you will, I can
Speaker 1: use that um but Joe Osbourne puts together first five.
Speaker 1: I usually rely on side sports, my boys over there
Speaker 1: on side Sports for these but they're far too busy
Speaker 1: this year to be calling these stats together. So Joe
Speaker 1: Osmoorne with the best first five records and the best
Speaker 1: first five and the worst first five money, So we'll
Speaker 1: do money first Oakland and as the most profitable first
Speaker 1: five teams. So basically what we did for the full
Speaker 1: game at the top of the show. This is the
Speaker 1: best first five. So if you bet the A's first five,
Speaker 1: blindly favorite underdog and remember their ties involved in first five,
Speaker 1: but when you put it all in the mix, the
Speaker 1: A's are the best first five team in baseball for betters. Yankees, Twins, Raised, Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: A lot of those teams showed up on the most
Speaker 1: runs produced or or the least runs UH allowed in
Speaker 1: the first five in the raw data we just talked about,
Speaker 1: so as Yankees that you remember when we were talking
Speaker 1: about the most profitable teams, they were up like eighteen
Speaker 1: hundred and nine, et cetera. But you know when you
Speaker 1: go in the first five, you're only up nine. Is
Speaker 1: that because ties? Well there's there's ties involved, right, But
Speaker 1: what's another reason, Mr Man, the straddle is wider? Oh
Speaker 1: very good, look at you looks at the big Thanks
Speaker 1: for inviting me on your show. Least at least profitable
Speaker 1: teams in the first five. The Orioles knows no, excuse
Speaker 1: me the other way around. The Toronto blue Jays, who,
Speaker 1: by the way, are on fire. And I keep saying
Speaker 1: this every day. If you had the Blue Jays under you,
Speaker 1: already counting your money not so fast. The worst team
Speaker 1: the first five, but they're the worst money team when
Speaker 1: it comes to first five. The Tigers who are always
Speaker 1: on these right, the Giants who we talked about moments ago,
Speaker 1: the Rockies again they play, of course, and the Orioles.
Speaker 1: But the Blue Jays are worst first five. And that
Speaker 1: is intuitive, right because name their name, their ace, right,
Speaker 1: name their second best picture, name their pictures right. If
Speaker 1: you would, if you took anybody in this casino right
Speaker 1: now that's out here in the south morning behind us,
Speaker 1: and you're like, can you name a Toronto Blue Jays
Speaker 1: starting picture? How what do you think the the hit
Speaker 1: percentage on that would be? Uh of people in the
Speaker 1: casino don't be way less than sports book, And the
Speaker 1: sports book wouldn't even, I promise you wouldn't be. Do
Speaker 1: we have the raw records of those teams? By the way, Jeff,
Speaker 1: I I can, I will, I will read those out
Speaker 1: right now. The Dodgers have the best record in the
Speaker 1: first five, followed by the Atlanta Braves who show up
Speaker 1: at number two, the Yankees at three, the twin Is
Speaker 1: at four, and Tampa at number five. The money was
Speaker 1: what was interesting, and the money the money was more surprising.
Speaker 1: This is just the bad teams. Detroit or excuse me,
Speaker 1: the Orioles have the worst one, then Detroit, then Toronto,
Speaker 1: then the San Francisco Giants actually come up at number four,
Speaker 1: and then it is the Rockies. Yeah again, the Rockies
Speaker 1: always relictive purposes. Really, what what this whole exercise tells
Speaker 1: us is I was just about to get to this. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: so Nona, I was gonna say that if you can
Speaker 1: pick out some teams, like every year in Major League Baseball,
Speaker 1: there's a couple of teams, maybe one or two teams
Speaker 1: that late in the season starts playing really much better
Speaker 1: than they've played the whole year. Some people say, maybe
Speaker 1: it'll be Toronto because they started playing well. But if
Speaker 1: you remember last year, Tampa Bay Rays were not a
Speaker 1: good team up until about August. Then they won every
Speaker 1: single game for the rest of the year, practically except
Speaker 1: one when they were up like eight to two in
Speaker 1: the ninth the blue the league. So what qualifies here
Speaker 1: that what's your take away from this season's exercise on this?
Speaker 1: I would say you have to be looking at teams
Speaker 1: maybe like the Marlins. They kind of hang around and
Speaker 1: they try every game. I'm not sure if it's the Marlins,
Speaker 1: but I'm saying in the next week or two, you
Speaker 1: might get a sense that there's teams that are playing
Speaker 1: way above what they've played the rest of the year.
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna tell you what I've taken away
Speaker 1: from this, and we'll get to the first dating is
Speaker 1: that's the last thing we have to go, and then
Speaker 1: we'll talk about today's late. But what I've taken away
Speaker 1: from this year's exercise is exactly what I predicted before
Speaker 1: last season and what I said this season the whole
Speaker 1: way about betting baseball. The fact that the Dodgers and
Speaker 1: the Yankees are the most profitable teams we already talked about,
Speaker 1: like with all that minus money just says everything about baseball.
Speaker 1: It's like, Wow, even when you have to lay those numbers,
Speaker 1: they're still value on them. And even think that they
Speaker 1: will continue and I think they will continue to be
Speaker 1: because they're starting to jerk them up to like ridiculous.
Speaker 1: Well yeah there, listen there exactly. So now you have
Speaker 1: to ask, okay, well will this continue in the in
Speaker 1: the last four games? Well, I think they will in
Speaker 1: the short term, like because they're not gonna sit anybody
Speaker 1: short term yet. But think about this, if they were
Speaker 1: average one fifty six or according to Mike Palm one
Speaker 1: fifty whatever, you guys should say, you guys should fight one.
Speaker 1: Let's say they were average one. Okay, going forward, I
Speaker 1: think if you take the next forty games, they're not
Speaker 1: going to gonna be much higher, and therefore they could
Speaker 1: be not they might not be profitable. As what you're saying,
Speaker 1: we might have missed the boat. We might have missed
Speaker 1: the boat. There's no question we might have missed the boat.
Speaker 1: Which is why I keep saying, you know, you have
Speaker 1: to determine what's predictable what's not. I guess what I'm
Speaker 1: saying is what what does all of that tell us
Speaker 1: thus far? I don't think there's a lot of gems
Speaker 1: this year because of that dynamic. Though to actually cull
Speaker 1: like usually with some of the years, we're like, oh
Speaker 1: my god, Tampa Bay like I never would have thought
Speaker 1: that that great first five, like last year that was
Speaker 1: the big thing. They kept coming up as the best
Speaker 1: first five team Q one, Q two, Q three, and
Speaker 1: it was like, oh, this is very interesting about the Rays.
Speaker 1: This opener thing and by the way, I know it
Speaker 1: was last year they before this opener thing is very
Speaker 1: interesting and we could take like legit it predictive information
Speaker 1: like this is sustainable because of what they're doing specifically.
Speaker 1: But this year, I think you're right about what you're
Speaker 1: saying about those teams with the big numbers. Maybe we've
Speaker 1: missed the boat, but up until this point, that's been
Speaker 1: the story. Like baseball has been so haves and have
Speaker 1: nots that there really isn't a gem in there, you
Speaker 1: know that we can take out of there. We're like, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm just randomly select a team. Oh that's interesting.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't have expected them to be that good or
Speaker 1: that bad to this point. To this point, but that's
Speaker 1: the exercide, right, we gotta figure out from this data
Speaker 1: is or anything, and and I don't think there's a
Speaker 1: lot And how how often do you see teams that
Speaker 1: run away to eight and forty one? Records continue to
Speaker 1: play that well into September very often. I remember, do
Speaker 1: you remember the Dodger team a couple of years ago
Speaker 1: that had a run of like sixty and five or
Speaker 1: some some ridiculous number. Last year, the Dodgers had an
Speaker 1: unbelievable winnings. Yeah, massive winning stretch, and then they actually
Speaker 1: it flipped for like two three weeks after that, they
Speaker 1: were they were terrible at right and I and I
Speaker 1: remember very often the team that's way way out in
Speaker 1: front in September stops really trying and they start playing
Speaker 1: a bunch of guys and then all of a sudden.
Speaker 1: So I don't think it's gonna be predictive going for it.
Speaker 1: It would be very interesting to see what the numbers
Speaker 1: are for the last forty game. I mean, that's why
Speaker 1: I think it's a it's a fun exercise to go
Speaker 1: through because it is uh. It does stimulate the brain,
Speaker 1: and it does require us to sort of look at
Speaker 1: baseball through a different prison and say, Okay, well that's great.
Speaker 1: Is there anything we can cull from it? I would
Speaker 1: argue this year probably less than most years, and there's
Speaker 1: no sense in thinking that any of that will manifest
Speaker 1: because of the dynamics of what you're saying, Like, there's
Speaker 1: some teams like the Yankees and the Dodgers are so
Speaker 1: far out in front, will they start to rest players
Speaker 1: sooner than normal? Uh? They can kind of coast into
Speaker 1: a hundred win seasons at this point, though even if
Speaker 1: they go five hundred, they're a hundred win teams. And
Speaker 1: here's actionable information. People are going to forget in September
Speaker 1: that there is a baseball season still going, no question,
Speaker 1: because they're gonna all be on the football all day long.
Speaker 1: It's going to be football wall to wall. And who
Speaker 1: doesn't love football? I love football. We love football. They're
Speaker 1: gonna forget and and the lines in baseball are gonna
Speaker 1: get a little softer. I noticed this every year in September.
Speaker 1: People are not on the tip top sharp razor point
Speaker 1: of their game because everyone moves over the football. And
Speaker 1: by the way for again, for the home run race,
Speaker 1: a lot of people like, oh, Cody Bellinger is gonna
Speaker 1: sit because therefore he's not gonna sit by the way
Speaker 1: middle relief. What did I say yesterday? Home run against
Speaker 1: middle relief? Yesterday? Bengo bengot nine three way tie thirty nine.
Speaker 1: Right now, it's a sprint trout. Bellinger yell at all
Speaker 1: at thirty nine, Alonso at thirty eight, and so Lair
Speaker 1: and a Kunya Jr. The sneaky freaking brothers sneaking in
Speaker 1: from the rear. They're like making some noise now too.
Speaker 1: Everybody's gotten just tons of Homer is a juice ball.
Speaker 1: I don't know if you know that juice ball. We'll
Speaker 1: come back. We'll do the first inning numbers on Q
Speaker 1: three on a on a numbers game right here at Visa.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to First Game with Jill Alexander. Visa's Pro
Speaker 1: Football Betting Guide ready for download on Friday. Just a
Speaker 1: friendly reminder, purchase sixty page digital magazine before Friday. You
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Speaker 1: that information Visa dot com slash bet Football. That for
Speaker 1: any plan that works for you, including a free trial
Speaker 1: that's Visa dot Com slash bet Football. I mentioned we
Speaker 1: get tweets and text on the show. I just want
Speaker 1: to point out again for those who listen to the show.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm always referencing three way text between me,
Speaker 1: Chris Fleakin, our buddy E and Uh. They comment on
Speaker 1: on everything that goes on, and I love him for
Speaker 1: it and us sometimes it's phenomenal, my buddy e. Uh
Speaker 1: he says this, Todd, he's piling on me, saying, of
Speaker 1: course we're on distribution is and even he says, of
Speaker 1: course we're distribution is an even third inning should be
Speaker 1: the least bottom of order. That's a good point. That
Speaker 1: was my point. I didn't I said I know what
Speaker 1: it was. I said fifth might be the most. I
Speaker 1: wasn't sure. I didn't say I know which one. I
Speaker 1: knew it wasn't gonna be even. Don't get defensive. All right,
Speaker 1: let's wrap up with the first innings here. First innings.
Speaker 1: These are proprietary status. You won't hear these anywhere else. Um,
Speaker 1: I actually track what pictures are doing in the first
Speaker 1: innings of games. Don't read into that, don't. I'm not
Speaker 1: suggesting that's how I make my first inning bets, which
Speaker 1: we've become famous for on this show. But just to
Speaker 1: let you know, UH, this year in Major League Baseball,
Speaker 1: minimum forty five plate appearances faced. Do it through the
Speaker 1: prism of on base average allowed. The worst starting pitcher
Speaker 1: in baseball this year is actually Jeremy Helickson, who you
Speaker 1: will not see listed anytime soon. Dylan, Uh, Dylan, what
Speaker 1: are we talking about now here? These are Let let
Speaker 1: me actually up this from forty five to fifty because
Speaker 1: I'm getting some names of guys that aren't even like
Speaker 1: you know, in major league lineups right now are major
Speaker 1: league rosters. They're all like downs for the year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: the first first inning first, just for sure, those are
Speaker 1: bet first innings and are interested in this kind of thing.
Speaker 1: So minimum fifty plate appearances face this is better. The
Speaker 1: worst in terms of opponents on base average Michael Waka
Speaker 1: four oh nine opposing on base percentage first innings. Kyle
Speaker 1: Freeland second worst four oh seven allowed, Drew Palmerant's third
Speaker 1: four oh four allowed, Jose Rainya, Aaron Brooks raw stripling,
Speaker 1: Jordan Zimmerman, Trevor Williams ross strippling is a surprise on
Speaker 1: that list. You're the best in the first inning. These
Speaker 1: are the guys that they show up. Yanni Cheering knows
Speaker 1: the best first inning pitcher in all of baseball as
Speaker 1: far this year one seventy five on base. Think about
Speaker 1: in the first inning, you're going against the best hitters
Speaker 1: of the other team, yes, you all. So this kind
Speaker 1: of means something A little bit it does, and it's
Speaker 1: just sort of, you know, a shout to again the
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Rays for the whole opener thing. There's Janni
Speaker 1: cheering os. So everything the Rays are doing, they are
Speaker 1: they are smart, they're doing it for a reason. It's
Speaker 1: working out. Walker Bueller next best first innings. By the way,
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw has always been on this list for years now.
Speaker 1: The Dodgers replace him with Walker Bueller for first inning
Speaker 1: performance only a two oh eight on bass average, A
Speaker 1: loud Chris Paddock to eleven on its loud first innings
Speaker 1: Frankie Mantaz, Domingo Herman, John means your boy, John means
Speaker 1: of the oriole age. He's regressing fast. Kyle Gibbson, Griffin Canning,
Speaker 1: Jack Flaherty, Michael Pineda, Jacob Degram. Right, by the way,
Speaker 1: that's kind of a surprising list because you don't see
Speaker 1: all the huge names on there. Yeah, no, that's true
Speaker 1: some of them, but you know some of them are
Speaker 1: like I actually cut it off right at de Gram,
Speaker 1: who is eleven, but then it's right after him where
Speaker 1: you see some of the big names de Gram, Velasquez,
Speaker 1: let's forget him for a second, ru Verlander, Strassburg. So
Speaker 1: they're they're they're just not top ten. Flaherty doesn't surprise
Speaker 1: me because I think he's been having a real under
Speaker 1: the radar great Him and Sonny Gray are my two
Speaker 1: under the radar great. I mean people follow it, no,
Speaker 1: but if you if you ask people out there who's
Speaker 1: been really outstanding in shape but don't know about Jack
Speaker 1: Flaherty would not come up in there on their list, right,
Speaker 1: Jack Flatty has been really good. He's been really good. Alright.
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed Q three and one Dababa Ba
Speaker 1: dabag Book one Dababada Papa