1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:03,600 Speaker 1: JJ, good to see you after a week off. How 2 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:04,560 Speaker 1: was the vacation, man? 3 00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 2: It was great, man, It was great to hang out 4 00:00:06,920 --> 00:00:09,480 Speaker 2: with the family. Everything, though, unraveled when. 5 00:00:09,360 --> 00:00:10,039 Speaker 3: I got home. 6 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:14,760 Speaker 2: Our upstairs air conditioner broke, and so we've been without 7 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:17,360 Speaker 2: that for a few days now, and that's where. 8 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 3: My office is at. 9 00:00:18,160 --> 00:00:22,320 Speaker 2: So my upstairs it's been like in the eighties high 10 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 2: eighties at times, and I've tried to record some shows 11 00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 2: and get stuff done and it has not been easy 12 00:00:27,520 --> 00:00:30,600 Speaker 2: at all. But I got to say, experiencing that heat 13 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:34,120 Speaker 2: inside the house still somehow better than when I drafted 14 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: Pukinakua and DeVante Adams and someone drafted naked Matthew Stafford 15 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 2: at the end of the fifth round last week. I'm JJ, 16 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: And over the last couple of years, I've been doing 17 00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 2: everything I can to be a best ball broke, and 18 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 2: last season things finally fell into place. 19 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 3: I got fortieth in the. 20 00:00:49,320 --> 00:00:53,600 Speaker 2: DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars. Maybe I 21 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 2: became a best ballpro, but I'm still looking to learn 22 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 2: more about this game, and I still want others. 23 00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:01,320 Speaker 3: To come on this ride with me. So even if 24 00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: you consider me a best ball bro This could be 25 00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 3: your year. 26 00:01:04,640 --> 00:01:07,759 Speaker 2: This could be the year that you officially become a 27 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:08,680 Speaker 2: best ball bro. 28 00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 3: This episode is sponsored by DraftKings. 29 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 2: We've partnered up with DraftKings again this year for Best 30 00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 2: Ball and we've got to can't miss offer on their 31 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 2: biggest best Ball contest ever, twenty million dollars in total prizes. 32 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,120 Speaker 2: It's Draft one, get one, draft your team once, no 33 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 2: weekly lineup management, and your top scorers start automatically each 34 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: week all season long. Download the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app 35 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 2: and sign up with promo code Late Round. 36 00:01:49,600 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 3: Enter a lineup in. 37 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 2: The twenty million dollars Best Ball Contest for twenty five 38 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 2: dollars and get a bonus ticket for a second entry 39 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 2: two shots at the title. 40 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 3: Draft one get one only on Draft Kings. The crown 41 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 3: is yours. 42 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,800 Speaker 2: Welcome into another episode of becoming a Best ball Bro. 43 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 2: I'm JJ Zachares and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich. 44 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:12,839 Speaker 3: What's going on, Buddy. 45 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 4: Doing great man? The football is behind us, in the 46 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 4: football is ahead of us. I fired up three consecutive 47 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 4: fast drafts last night after my work was finished, so 48 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 4: I am full steam ahead for best ball and football season. 49 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I got some drafts in on vacation, which was great. 50 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:34,520 Speaker 2: When the kids went to bed, I was able to, 51 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 2: you know, just hang out in the living room. 52 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:37,320 Speaker 3: It's one of the best times. 53 00:02:37,360 --> 00:02:40,120 Speaker 2: Like the kids are settled, you had a long fun day, 54 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 2: and you just bust open the laptop and you're sitting 55 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 2: there with your significant other and you know, they're doing 56 00:02:45,639 --> 00:02:49,120 Speaker 2: their thing and I'm doing my thing, and I'm just 57 00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: cranking out some drafts. So I am officially over the 58 00:02:52,520 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 2: eighty mark with my milli drafts so far, I have 59 00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: to say. So, I'm going to talk about some exposures 60 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,480 Speaker 2: here in a second of some of the higher drafted 61 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,359 Speaker 2: players in terms of sorry high eighty p players, I 62 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,359 Speaker 2: should say they're obviously higher drafted if I'm going to 63 00:03:06,440 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 2: talk about the higher exposed players that I've that I've drafted. 64 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 3: The thing is in these drafts, these eighty plus drafts, 65 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 3: now I've done a couple more than eighty. 66 00:03:15,040 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 2: I have gotten the one ten in fourteen of them. 67 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 2: What and it is the most tilting. 68 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 3: I hit eighty. 69 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,280 Speaker 2: And I put all my notes for today's show for 70 00:03:24,440 --> 00:03:26,919 Speaker 2: the eighty drafts that I've done, and then I did 71 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,079 Speaker 2: two more since since I put the show sheet together 72 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 2: and in both of those drafts, I drew. 73 00:03:30,760 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 3: The one ten. 74 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 2: So I have now gotten the one ten and what 75 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 2: seventeen percent if you do the eighty two seventeen percent 76 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:39,520 Speaker 2: of my drafts, I've gotten the one oh one three times. 77 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 2: And it is beyond frustrating, beyond tilting. So if you 78 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:45,600 Speaker 2: guys feel that pain, I feel it too. I'm not 79 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 2: getting nearly enough Jumior Gibbs. And you can't do anything 80 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,240 Speaker 2: about it, right, Like I'm sitting here and I'm like 81 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 2: I message Kitchen and Godoula about it. In Kitchen's like 82 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 2: you gotta log out, log back in, you know, like 83 00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 2: like just just change change something right, right, change things 84 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 2: up a little bit, and maybe that will help. But 85 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 2: what I do want to do really quick. We have 86 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 2: a great guest on today's show. There's a long conversation. 87 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,120 Speaker 2: I bring up the air conditioner thing multiple times in 88 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: that conversation because actually it was. 89 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 3: Even warmer when I recorded that with our guests. 90 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 2: So I by the end of the like fifty some 91 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 2: minutes that we that we were talking, I'm literally sweating 92 00:04:21,279 --> 00:04:23,600 Speaker 2: on the show. So just just be prepared. If you're 93 00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,159 Speaker 2: watching on YouTube, it gets pretty bad. And like my 94 00:04:26,160 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 2: face is red. 95 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,800 Speaker 3: You know, it's just not a good scene at all. 96 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 2: What I wanted to do is, since I am at 97 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:35,280 Speaker 2: that eighty mark, I'm gonna go one by one through 98 00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,120 Speaker 2: about eight players, eight or nine players who I am 99 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,440 Speaker 2: highest exposed to based on early ADP players. So I'm 100 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 2: not talking like, you know, Jonah Coleman is someone that 101 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 2: I'm highest on right now that I have like thirty 102 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 2: percent exposure to. 103 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 3: I actually talk about. 104 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:54,200 Speaker 2: Coleman with our guests at the end of the conversation, 105 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: so you guys can dig into that. We kind of 106 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: just straight away and just went off on a tangent. 107 00:04:58,160 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 2: But I think people, you know, hopefully we'll dig that. 108 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:03,159 Speaker 2: But I'm only talking about like top six or seven 109 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 2: rounds essentially here, top six rounds mostly. So with that 110 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:08,920 Speaker 2: being said, I'm gonna kick things off and first say 111 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 2: that the only player out of these, out of this 112 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:13,720 Speaker 2: group that's been over twenty percent is the one that 113 00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 2: I'm gonna bring up first, and that is mister Luther Burden. 114 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:18,919 Speaker 3: I kind of got. 115 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 2: Burden crazy one point in June and was just drafting 116 00:05:22,240 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 2: them basically every time I was in the mid to 117 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,479 Speaker 2: late fourth round. I've been trying to get you know, 118 00:05:26,520 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 2: even out the exposure a little bit more with Burden, 119 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 2: I still think that there's a chance that Burden is 120 00:05:31,400 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 2: a slight camp riser. Like I still think there's at 121 00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 2: least some chance that we get a lot of hype 122 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: and steam behind him. And because right now you're still 123 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,159 Speaker 2: finding drafts where he will slip into the beginning of 124 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 2: the fifth round over on draftings, and so I think 125 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:47,840 Speaker 2: that there's room for him to grow and just kind 126 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 2: of like jump in front of that giant tier of 127 00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,520 Speaker 2: wide receivers, whether it be Jyalen Wattle, who I also like, 128 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 2: you know, Terry McLaurin, t mac Garrett Wilson, like all 129 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,279 Speaker 2: of those players. I think there's a chance that he 130 00:06:00,360 --> 00:06:03,120 Speaker 2: has that like Zay Flowers effect that we've seen with 131 00:06:03,240 --> 00:06:05,760 Speaker 2: Zay where Zay kind of escaped from that group and 132 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 2: a Mecca Buka has kind of escaped from that group 133 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:10,440 Speaker 2: to some degree as well. I think that there's a 134 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: chance of that with Luthor Burden, because what if Romadunze 135 00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 2: comes out, he doesn't look one hundred percent you know, 136 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:18,400 Speaker 2: there's obviously already been steamed from Ben Johnson saying that 137 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 2: he's buying Luther burdens stock, and so I think that 138 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:23,120 Speaker 2: there's still some chance that his price. 139 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 3: Rises a bit. 140 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 2: I don't think it's going to get that much lower 141 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:29,280 Speaker 2: more than likely, but yeah, I'm in on Burden this year. 142 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 3: You know, I've seen a lot. 143 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 2: Of people say that they're out, that they don't understand 144 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 2: this price point. And you know, if you look at 145 00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 2: rookie season point per game marks, it's very rare for 146 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 2: a player to really break out after such a low 147 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 2: PPR point per game mark as Burden had. But my 148 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 2: counter to that is, well, it's also rare to find 149 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 2: a player who had that low of a point per 150 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 2: game mark and such great per route run efficiency. You know, 151 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,080 Speaker 2: there's a lot more to a profile than just looking 152 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:57,080 Speaker 2: at one singular metric and just crossing that dude off 153 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: your list, because we haven't seen that historically. Now, if 154 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,360 Speaker 2: there are six, seven, eight metrics that you know are 155 00:07:03,400 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 2: relatively predictive and all of them just say hey, don't 156 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 2: draft this guy, you know, that's one of the reasons 157 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:09,680 Speaker 2: why I am a little bit scared of like a 158 00:07:09,720 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 2: DJ Moore. Let's say, even though I understand the fit 159 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 2: in real life, then I think, yeah, you can you 160 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 2: can make that claim, and it's just it's more so 161 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,400 Speaker 2: for me. I don't think the Luther Burden stuff is 162 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 2: simply all hype, you know, like this isn't just like 163 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 2: a fantasy football industry fabrication of what's going on. The 164 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 2: freaking head coach of the team who hand picked him, 165 00:07:27,840 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 2: who drafted him, right, is saying that he's buying Luther 166 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: Burden stock. You can almost copy and paste what Ben 167 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,640 Speaker 2: Johnson was doing in Detroit from a personnel standpoint and 168 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,840 Speaker 2: kind of see what he's trying to do in Chicago 169 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 2: with the playmakers that he has as well, and we 170 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: know that easier kind of lower aid dot but also 171 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 2: inside out role that will scheme guys is the Amana 172 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 2: Saint Brown role, right, and that's the role that Luthor 173 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 2: Burden is more than likely going to play in this offense. 174 00:07:57,480 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 2: So I'm in on Burden this year. I'm at twenty 175 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 2: five percent and a little bit lower because I did 176 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,000 Speaker 2: two more drafts and I did not draft Burden, So 177 00:08:04,080 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 2: let's just say twenty three percent or something. 178 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:07,680 Speaker 3: But I am high on Burden this year. 179 00:08:07,760 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 2: And you know, if you're listening to this, if you 180 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 2: don't want to take that on, fine, if you want 181 00:08:10,520 --> 00:08:12,440 Speaker 2: to be a little bit even, fine, but I would 182 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 2: still recommend being over that eight percent mark and being 183 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,160 Speaker 2: overweight on Burden versus the market. 184 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, if it was just hype, then we wouldn't see 185 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,400 Speaker 4: Colson Loveland and Roma Dunzai going as high as they 186 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 4: were as well. 187 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 1: People want pieces of this offense. 188 00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 3: Yeah. 189 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:29,040 Speaker 2: Something else, something else I want to throw out there too, 190 00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 2: is that I see a lot of like, you know, oh, 191 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,520 Speaker 2: if you're high on Parker Washington, and that means that 192 00:08:33,559 --> 00:08:36,080 Speaker 2: you have to hate Brian Thomas. You know, like if 193 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:38,559 Speaker 2: you like Luther Burden, then you have to hate no, 194 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 2: because in an individual draft, you're making a bet on 195 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 2: that player in that draft. To me, every draft is 196 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 2: like an outcome for a particular season and how that 197 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 2: would go down. You know, there are hundreds and hundreds 198 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 2: of outcomes in ways that things can go in a 199 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 2: given year. Right, But in your draft, in that twelve 200 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 2: team draft that you're when you're picking those twenty players, 201 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: you're saying yourself, this is the way this is going 202 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 2: to go down in this season's iteration. Right, But a 203 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 2: brand new draft means, hey, I'll take Colston Lovelin at 204 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 2: the end of round four if he falls or middle 205 00:09:10,200 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 2: round four and I'm not getting Luther Burden in that case, 206 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 2: which in that case for that particular lineup, Yeah, I 207 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 2: hope the breakout doesn't. 208 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 3: Happen for Luther Burden for that lineup. 209 00:09:19,400 --> 00:09:19,560 Speaker 1: You know. 210 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 2: I think it just goes to like the more of 211 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 2: the probabilistic thinking and not handcuffing yourself to a take 212 00:09:25,040 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 2: and just saying like this has to happen in order 213 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 2: for you to like this guy. If that were the case, 214 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:31,560 Speaker 2: then you would never buy into anything ambiguous in it 215 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:33,560 Speaker 2: from a draft board perspective, you know, And it's just 216 00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: a silly thing to do. 217 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, you nail this on the Marcuts Square episode that 218 00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 4: released on Tuesday with regards to the Jags and Bears receivers, 219 00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:42,800 Speaker 4: where if you're just looking at a model's output and 220 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 4: MEETA and outcomes, of course things are muddled and gray, 221 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 4: but the contingent upside for all four of these guys 222 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 4: is is pretty enticing. 223 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's it's really enticing. 224 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,719 Speaker 2: Next guy I'll go to, I did draft him in 225 00:09:54,760 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: one of the two drafts that I just did, Zay Flowers. 226 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: So technically Zay Flowers is probably at the twenty percent 227 00:09:59,200 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: mark at this point. 228 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,240 Speaker 3: I wasn't as in on Za last year. He was 229 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: more of a fade for me. 230 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,280 Speaker 2: He didn't have that great of a year, all things 231 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: considered from a fantasy production standpoint, because the Ravens, you know, 232 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,200 Speaker 2: lose Lamar. Lamar wasn't that even that great when he 233 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 2: came back and they were a run heavy offense, and Zay, 234 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 2: you know, he had that that final game where. 235 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:19,640 Speaker 3: He boosted his end of season numbers quite a bit. 236 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 2: And I think that we're doing ourselves a disservice a 237 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 2: little bit with wide receiver in particular if we cite 238 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,600 Speaker 2: end of season finish with these guys when we know 239 00:10:28,760 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 2: that it's incredibly flat. If you say that Zay Flowers 240 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:34,200 Speaker 2: finishes the wide receiver twelve and he's you know, ten 241 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:38,320 Speaker 2: spots eleven spots from Puka and JSN from last year, 242 00:10:38,679 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 2: and then you look at the wide receiver twenty one 243 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:44,520 Speaker 2: or twenty two, who would be ten spots away from Zay. 244 00:10:44,760 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 3: The wide receiver twenty two to Zay is so so 245 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 3: much smaller, and there's almost no difference in no delta 246 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: compared to that difference between you know, one of the 247 00:10:53,080 --> 00:10:55,560 Speaker 3: elite guys to say, so, like, I think that when 248 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 3: we speak like that, like we're human, so we think 249 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 3: in more of a linear nature, in a linear way, 250 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 3: but it's really not that way at all. Like last year, 251 00:11:02,880 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 3: a wide receiver. 252 00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:05,320 Speaker 2: They were like eight to ten guys that were really 253 00:11:05,320 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 2: good and everyone else was basically the same, you know, 254 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 2: which is what the death of the wide Receiver two 255 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:11,000 Speaker 2: was all about at the beginning of the off season 256 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 2: in the podcast feed. But that being said, I'm bullish 257 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:15,320 Speaker 2: that this offense might be a little bit more pass 258 00:11:15,320 --> 00:11:18,720 Speaker 2: heavy with Lamar being healthier, a new offensive coordinator, and 259 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 2: you know, it's the same logic that I used against 260 00:11:21,480 --> 00:11:23,800 Speaker 2: z to a degree last year, where you know, he's 261 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:25,599 Speaker 2: not used in the red zone very frequently, he's not 262 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,000 Speaker 2: using the end zone very frequently, but you do lose 263 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,600 Speaker 2: Isaiah likely, you know, a piece that that you could 264 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 2: hypothetically say is you know, a threat down there, even 265 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 2: though maybe the numbers aren't as strong and like not 266 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 2: that big. 267 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:40,679 Speaker 3: Of a deal. But he's also he also just put together. 268 00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 2: An incredible season Zay Flowers did, and if you look 269 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:46,200 Speaker 2: at you know, the per route run stuff year over year, 270 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 2: it's something that that that stuff is going to be 271 00:11:49,080 --> 00:11:51,480 Speaker 2: a lot stickier for Zay than it is than it 272 00:11:51,480 --> 00:11:53,240 Speaker 2: has been in other seasons, just because it was so 273 00:11:53,280 --> 00:11:55,080 Speaker 2: good last year. And then you look at his market 274 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 2: score comps and it's really hard to not get really excited, 275 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:00,720 Speaker 2: Like cause his point per game average with the market 276 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 2: score comps, which is the episode that I did on Tuesday, 277 00:12:03,200 --> 00:12:04,920 Speaker 2: but his point per game average is like fifteen and 278 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 2: a half PPR points per game. I mean, he's still 279 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:09,719 Speaker 2: getting comps of like JSN from last year, and it's 280 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 2: a very intriguing and fun profile. I've taken him at 281 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: the beginning towards the beginning of the third round at 282 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,040 Speaker 2: times just to get a little bit of a differentiated lineup, 283 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,400 Speaker 2: but when he falls the late third, I'm basically getting him. 284 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:19,640 Speaker 3: All the time. 285 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 2: And like I said, I've gotten the one ten so 286 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,439 Speaker 2: freaking frequently that I've just gotten. 287 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,040 Speaker 3: A lot of a flowers as a result of that too. 288 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm looking. 289 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:30,400 Speaker 4: I've pulled up my ADP data and he's right there 290 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 4: sitting at the end of the third So it correlates 291 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:36,160 Speaker 4: with with where you're drafting. I pulled up last year 292 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 4: as well as curious where Zey finished in adp last 293 00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:42,440 Speaker 4: year in Best Ball and it was in the sixth round. 294 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 4: So to see him jump up from the sixth round 295 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:46,480 Speaker 4: to the third round, he did it. He is coming 296 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 4: off his best season obviously twelve hundred yards, but like 297 00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,839 Speaker 4: you said, so much of that boosted by yeah game 298 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:53,839 Speaker 4: where he goes spopular. 299 00:12:54,360 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, that final game, that first game he went nuclear 300 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 2: as well, like he really like if you had Zay, 301 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 2: because I still had za I had him as a 302 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:02,679 Speaker 2: fade last year, but I still had him in some 303 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 2: leagues and it wasn't like the most fun experience. 304 00:13:05,760 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: It was not. 305 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 3: It really was right right and so. But but I 306 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 3: do think it'll be smoother this year. 307 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 4: But yeah, at costs this is it's harder to see 308 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 4: him go higher than this. But to your point of this, 309 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:24,360 Speaker 4: Ravens offense any interesting mystery box in and of itself 310 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 4: with the new coaching stuff. 311 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 2: There, So yeah, I should throw out there too. I 312 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:31,240 Speaker 2: have fifteen percent Lamar Jackson, he's my highest. Him and 313 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 2: Jalen Hurts both at fifteen percent. I'll go a little 314 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,600 Speaker 2: bit quicker through this, but they are my highest roster 315 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:40,000 Speaker 2: quarterbacks right now. I just it goes back to everything 316 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 2: we've talked about about quarterback with guests, you know, in 317 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 2: our intros before the guest. 318 00:13:44,440 --> 00:13:45,800 Speaker 3: It's just this idea that. 319 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 2: I have a very hard time knowing that these guys 320 00:13:48,800 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 2: are going in the lake, like Lamar will slip to 321 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 2: the sixth sometimes, and I have a hard time knowing 322 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 2: that those guys will be going in to six, you know, 323 00:13:55,120 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 2: fifth to seventh round, when in the ninth round, you're 324 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:02,080 Speaker 2: going to be reaching for an inferior player, an inferior quarterback, 325 00:14:02,120 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 2: when we know these guys can break Fantasy football. Now 326 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:07,040 Speaker 2: that being said, quarterback, and I talk about this with 327 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 2: our guest today, but quarterback doesn't have the best advanced 328 00:14:09,920 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 2: rates even when they have a nuclear season, So I. 329 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,479 Speaker 3: Think that is important. 330 00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 2: But I just love the flexibility that those like round 331 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 2: five to seven quarterbacks give you in these drafts. You're 332 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: not feeling forced, you can let value drop. You know, 333 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 2: there's just a lot of upside from that perspective in 334 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 2: drafting them. So Lamar and Jalen Hurts are both at 335 00:14:27,280 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 2: fifteen percent. No surprise with Lamar given I've been drafting 336 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: the day flowers. I have Terry McLaurin at nineteen percent. 337 00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 2: You know, I've talked about him on the show before 338 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,480 Speaker 2: as well, and he's in the draft guy as a 339 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 2: player to target this year. He had his best per 340 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:44,080 Speaker 2: route run efficiency last year, despite his age, despite the 341 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 2: quarterback situation. You get a new offensive coordinator that I'm 342 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,200 Speaker 2: bullish on, and you get Jaden and Daniels healthy. So 343 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:53,080 Speaker 2: I think I think Terry McLaurin there's no signal to 344 00:14:53,120 --> 00:14:55,800 Speaker 2: me that he's fallen off at all, you know, from 345 00:14:55,840 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 2: a talent perspective. So given the competition there, even if 346 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: they get a step on Diggs, I think it's gonna 347 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 2: be fine for Terry McLaurin. I also have sixteen percent 348 00:15:03,680 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 2: Ashton Genty That is probably my you know, my my 349 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 2: go to like round one to two running back that 350 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 2: I that I've kind of gravitated towards most. I'm trying 351 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,320 Speaker 2: to get a little bit more like Kenneth Walker. I'ven't 352 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 2: drafted enough of him, and I want to be a 353 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:20,520 Speaker 2: little bit flatter. I probably don't want to finish at 354 00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,800 Speaker 2: sixteen percent with gent, but I'd be okay with the 355 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,440 Speaker 2: twelve to fourteen percent range. 356 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 3: The volume should be there. 357 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 2: I love the fit and Klink Kubiak's offense, but I 358 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,440 Speaker 2: love the potential upgraded quarterback, and the offensive line should 359 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: be a lot better this year than it was last 360 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 2: year with their additions and Cole Miller coming back. 361 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 3: So Ashton genty at sixteen percent. 362 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,640 Speaker 2: I have Jsn at sixteen percent as well, And the 363 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:43,360 Speaker 2: main reason for that is, I know I've been getting 364 00:15:43,400 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 2: the ten spot a lot, but I've been getting the five. 365 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:46,760 Speaker 3: To seven spot a lot too. 366 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 2: And the problem is I'll take him at five, but 367 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 2: then he follows sometimes to six and seven, and so 368 00:15:52,440 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 2: I'll take him at six and seven as well. 369 00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 3: So this is more of a I'm not look. 370 00:15:57,520 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 2: I know that Jaysn is going to regress to a 371 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:02,280 Speaker 2: degree because he was so efficient last year, but I 372 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 2: think Seattle's gonna throw the ball bar this year because 373 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:06,720 Speaker 2: their defense is just not going to be able to 374 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,480 Speaker 2: repeat that performance year over years, something that we see 375 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 2: all the time with defenses in football. And as a 376 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:13,920 Speaker 2: result of that, I think they're going to naturally not 377 00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 2: be in as grade of scripts. And if they're not 378 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:18,120 Speaker 2: in as gread of scripts, not only that they're running 379 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:20,200 Speaker 2: look at the running back situation. The fact that we're 380 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:22,440 Speaker 2: talking about like Jenerarium Price, who was never a bell 381 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 2: cow in college, and they're already talking about George Hallani 382 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 2: and Emmanuel in this like running back by committee. I 383 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: don't know how much they're gonna lean on that run 384 00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 2: game necessarily, So I think there's reasons to be bullish 385 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:36,200 Speaker 2: in the passing attack and that volume can combat the 386 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 2: regression from an efficiency standpoint. 387 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 3: For JSN, he's also just a stud, like I don't 388 00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 3: I don't know. 389 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 2: I'm trying not to overthink the JSN stuff and be like, oh, 390 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,480 Speaker 2: I'm gonna draft Justin Jefferson over Jasense, Like there's a 391 00:16:46,520 --> 00:16:49,920 Speaker 2: lot of red flags still with Justin Jefferson's profile, We like, 392 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 2: how do we know that Kyler's gonna work out? Like 393 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 2: at least we have some stability going on with Seattle, 394 00:16:54,960 --> 00:16:56,840 Speaker 2: So I'm I'm cool, Like, if you want to take 395 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,440 Speaker 2: Amaras Saint Brown over him, fine, like whatever. But but 396 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 2: I've been in the five spot, the six spot, in 397 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 2: the seven spots so frequently that I've just gotten a 398 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 2: lot of JSN. So he's another one. And then real 399 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:09,960 Speaker 2: quick to close this out, Jalen Wattle fifteen percent. When 400 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,199 Speaker 2: I go through the market trends that I do in 401 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 2: the draft guide for this range of the draft, Jalen 402 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 2: Wattle checks basically every single box. I think Jalen Waddle 403 00:17:19,080 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 2: might end up being my favorite value in season long 404 00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:25,800 Speaker 2: this year, in the earlier early ish rounds, like he 405 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 2: might end up being that guy based on where he's 406 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 2: being drafted on some of these bigger platforms, you know, 407 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,200 Speaker 2: from a season long perspective, and I get him a lot, 408 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 2: like I think that you can get him as early 409 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 2: as the three to four turn on draftings if you 410 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 2: really want to get more exposure, Like I think that's 411 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 2: totally fine given the circumstance there. And then the final 412 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,119 Speaker 2: two or two Bengals, I have fifteen percent Chase Brown 413 00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 2: and I have fifteen percent T Higgins, but that's partially 414 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 2: again based on where I'm drafting so frequently you know 415 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:53,719 Speaker 2: that one to ten you get him at the end 416 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 2: of the third. He's fallen to the fourth frequently for me, 417 00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 2: and there's continued upside. I think T Higgins is just 418 00:17:59,000 --> 00:18:01,719 Speaker 2: kind of undervalued and best ball where we know spiked 419 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:04,440 Speaker 2: weak ability is there for him. But then there's contingent upside. 420 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:05,960 Speaker 2: If Jamar Chase were to go down then all of 421 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 2: a sudden, Like I again, I've said this before. But 422 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 2: I always think through this when I'm drafting my teams, 423 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 2: is what would happen, Like where would T Higgins be 424 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 2: drafted if Jamar Chase were not in the picture? 425 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:15,679 Speaker 1: Right? 426 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 3: Would he not be a Nico Collins if not higher 427 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:20,200 Speaker 3: than him type pick? 428 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:20,640 Speaker 1: Right? 429 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 4: Like, yeah, he would be in that late second yeah, yeah. 430 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:27,199 Speaker 2: Right, And so I think that there's you know, we 431 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 2: know there's at least some upside there. So T Higgins 432 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 2: is the last guy in that fifteen percent range. 433 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 3: Those are the guys where I'm at early. I think 434 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:35,360 Speaker 3: a lot of that's going to change. 435 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 2: Hopefully just based on where I draft, because it's still 436 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 2: only eighty drafts, you know, I'm only a little bit 437 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,080 Speaker 2: more than halfway there. But I feel pretty good about 438 00:18:43,080 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 2: all of those individual players, Like I'm not really upset 439 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,959 Speaker 2: about having because like, like not only that, but all 440 00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:51,639 Speaker 2: of them, maybe Gente aside, maybe jsn aside are in, 441 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 2: and maybe McLaurin aside, but they're all in like pretty 442 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:58,320 Speaker 2: good offenses, like offensive ecosystems that I don't think they're 443 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 2: going to like completely destroy me unless an injury happens 444 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 2: to one of them. 445 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 4: And I think gent is the exact right bet out 446 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 4: of that running back cluster, Like who is going to 447 00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 4: be the running back in that five running back cluster? 448 00:19:10,840 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 4: I mean you could even extend it to include Faith Brown, 449 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,200 Speaker 4: a Han and Henry Like who from that cluster? We're 450 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 4: going to look back and say, Wow, maybe they should 451 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 4: have been competing with the mid to early first round guys. Right, 452 00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,879 Speaker 4: how about a pass catching guy with a team that 453 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 4: invested heavily in its offensive line. Yeah, drafted a quarterback 454 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 4: plays most of its games indoors, like everything's there for him. 455 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. 456 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 2: And you know, I've gotten a lot of feedback from 457 00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 2: people about like, well, you know, you've talked about rookie 458 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 2: quarterbacks being bad for their personnel, you know, their pass 459 00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 2: catchers and their running backs, et cetera. 460 00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:43,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean. 461 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 2: Like that, And I talked about this on the show before, 462 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,280 Speaker 2: on a mailbag episode. That's more of a proxy to 463 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 2: tell you that that rookie quarterbacks tend to just underperform 464 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,080 Speaker 2: in general versus our expectations. But the idea here is 465 00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 2: that the system itself, the offensive line, all of the above, 466 00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 2: lack of weaponry outside of brock Bowers, all of the 467 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 2: abut which, by the way, Brock Bowers for anyone curious. 468 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 2: I'm not like thirteen percent or so right now. But 469 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,920 Speaker 2: aside from Brock Bowers, is like, there's a lot to 470 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 2: like about the volume that Ashton Gent could see in 471 00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:16,200 Speaker 2: that backfield in a good you know, with a guy 472 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,399 Speaker 2: like Clint Kubiak, And I think that naturally no offense 473 00:20:19,440 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 2: to your boy, Gino, but I think that you know, 474 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,200 Speaker 2: when you add in the offensive line and the quarterback 475 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:26,400 Speaker 2: potential upgrade just given the environment. 476 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,200 Speaker 3: I'm not even necessarily going to say that it was 477 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:29,240 Speaker 3: all Gino last year. 478 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,439 Speaker 2: The way that you com bat a bad environment is 479 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 2: through volume in fantasy football, and I think Ashton Gent 480 00:20:34,880 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 2: at the very least is going to see that to 481 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 2: be able to like meet adp. But if the offense 482 00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:41,359 Speaker 2: is just better than we expect and he's gonna he 483 00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 2: could be a top three running back in fantasy. 484 00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,119 Speaker 4: Yeah, he could. To call back to Brandon's episode with you, 485 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 4: he could kind of pepr Merchant himself, but at the 486 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:53,480 Speaker 4: same time be extremely talented and be able to break 487 00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:55,159 Speaker 4: off massive plays at the same time. 488 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm not worried about last year's efficiency. There's 489 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,439 Speaker 2: literally no correlation with year one yards per carry and 490 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,719 Speaker 2: how they volume is what you should be focused on 491 00:21:04,800 --> 00:21:07,719 Speaker 2: more than anything like yards per carry. And not only that, 492 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:09,560 Speaker 2: but he was second worst in the league and yards 493 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,720 Speaker 2: before contact per attempt only Quinnchot Judkins was worse last year. 494 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 2: So you know, obviously the offensive line played a role, 495 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,919 Speaker 2: but they're getting really good players added to that line, 496 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 2: whether through injury return or just through free agency. So 497 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 2: I am I'm into it to ash and gent. Okay, 498 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 2: let's talk about this guest. I brought him up a 499 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 2: couple times he was on the show last year. People 500 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 2: really liked our conversation last year, so I thought, hey, 501 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 2: we should run this back this year. 502 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 3: But it's Todd Burrows, who has played Best Ball for. 503 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 2: A very long time, very active on Twitter at best 504 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:42,359 Speaker 2: Ball NFL. We kind of went in a lot of 505 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 2: different directions with this conversation, and so hopefully people enjoy 506 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,639 Speaker 2: that aspect, because it wasn't, you know, more of like 507 00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 2: a interview answer interviewer answer type type scenario. Like we 508 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 2: went back and forth and we hashed some things out, 509 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 2: and I think that people will hopefully enjoy that. But 510 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 2: we chatted about a really unique way that Todd likes 511 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 2: to stack the problems that we run into with certain 512 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 2: team builds and roster construction. 513 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:08,960 Speaker 3: And then, like I said, we had some conversations too 514 00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 3: that straight away from the show sheets. So it was 515 00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,920 Speaker 3: a really good time. I hope that comes out when 516 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 3: you listen to it. Without further ado, here is my 517 00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:17,040 Speaker 3: interview with Todd Burroughs. 518 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 2: All right, Todd, First off, I have to preface right now, 519 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 2: my ac is broken in the upstairs of my house 520 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,639 Speaker 2: and my office is upstairs, and so but if you're 521 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:44,920 Speaker 2: watching this on YouTube, by the end of this recording, 522 00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 2: not only that I have a cold right now too, 523 00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 2: but by the end of this recording, I will be sweating. 524 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:51,040 Speaker 3: There's no doubt in my mind. 525 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:53,560 Speaker 1: And you know, I will just say that it's because 526 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,439 Speaker 1: of all the hot takes that I give. Right Like, 527 00:22:56,680 --> 00:23:03,240 Speaker 1: I am going to like take completely responsibility for your sweating. Man, 528 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,520 Speaker 1: I had JJ on, JJ had me on, Dude, was sweating? 529 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:08,720 Speaker 1: My takes are so hot? 530 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 2: Yes, yes, exactly. I'm looking forward to this conversation. Though 531 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,919 Speaker 2: we had a really good talk last year. You know, 532 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 2: I thought that you brought some really unique perspective to 533 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 2: Best Ball in this best Ball space. As I've gone 534 00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:24,239 Speaker 2: on this journey of becoming maybe I am now a 535 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:27,400 Speaker 2: best Ball bro. But I love to hear other perspectives 536 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,359 Speaker 2: on this, So let's just start. What's a mistake do 537 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,360 Speaker 2: you think drafters are making this year? In other words, 538 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 2: when we look back on this season, what do you 539 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 2: think that we could point to as being the reason 540 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 2: that people didn't do so well? 541 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: The two biggest overall things I found this year is 542 00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 1: even more than normal. I think the field is overreacting 543 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: to the small sample size that's just an inherent part 544 00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: of best Ball right in DFS football seventeen eighteen twenty 545 00:23:56,720 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: slates a year mini slates, and so best Ball We've 546 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: literally only had five to seven slates so far, and 547 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,919 Speaker 1: this year I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. I 548 00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:16,360 Speaker 1: feel like even the smart people are just overreacting. I mean, 549 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,240 Speaker 1: we hear a lot of talk about small sample size 550 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:23,040 Speaker 1: in the community, but the way the board has laid 551 00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: out this year and people are just seemingly completely overreacting 552 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: to what happened last year, which is what opens up 553 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:39,040 Speaker 1: a big opportunity for this year. Last year, I know, 554 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 1: I brought this up a bit about how my biggest 555 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 1: epiphany was that I went from being too much of 556 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 1: an advanced week bro to too aggressive, right. So my 557 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: goal last year was to dial it back, and I 558 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:56,600 Speaker 1: not only had my best advance rate in three years, 559 00:24:57,000 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 1: but I also got a team into the underdog finals 560 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,000 Speaker 1: and it came in sixty third. So I feel like 561 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: I went for and accomplished a nice balance. But I 562 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:11,919 Speaker 1: feel like the field this year is spending all this 563 00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: time trying to advance. We don't hear much about correlation anymore. 564 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,680 Speaker 1: We don't hear much about week seventeen. We don't hear 565 00:25:22,720 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: about stacking. It's just get your quarterbacks and get your 566 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,439 Speaker 1: running backs. What is the most interesting thing to me 567 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: in best ball is trying to figure out ways to 568 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 1: get through the pods so that you get to week seventeen, 569 00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:41,600 Speaker 1: because that's the hardest thing to figure out. 570 00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 2: Refresh my memory a little bit because you talked about 571 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 2: this a little bit last year, but your strategy about 572 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 2: handling Week fifteen and sixteen, I think you said that 573 00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 2: you sort of try to trick the pods a little bit. 574 00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,000 Speaker 3: How are you refining that. 575 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,560 Speaker 1: In the past. There's a couple ways to do it. 576 00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,360 Speaker 1: They're stacking without a quarterback, you know, like at receiver, 577 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,679 Speaker 1: hoping that you know, one week, one guy goes off 578 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,880 Speaker 1: gets you into the next week. But my favorite way 579 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 1: to do it is by stacking a running back, particularly 580 00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: a cheap backup running back with a stack right. And 581 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: most people don't do that, but we all know that 582 00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,960 Speaker 1: in a good offense, one week it could be the 583 00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:27,159 Speaker 1: running game that gets you there. The next week it 584 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:31,440 Speaker 1: gets you the passing game. And Sharbone and I did 585 00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,000 Speaker 1: trick the pods a little bit. I got to week 586 00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: seventeen with Sharboney, Donald and Jaysn and Sharbone had a 587 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:45,639 Speaker 1: huge Week sixteen, and there was this nut matchup with 588 00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:49,680 Speaker 1: Donald and Jaysn week seventeen that they completely didn't hit. 589 00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,080 Speaker 1: You know, another fifteen points and I'd be a lot 590 00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,960 Speaker 1: wealthier man. You know, the difference between like tenth and 591 00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: sixty third is a lot of money. 592 00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 3: Oh I feel you, yeah, yea. 593 00:27:00,560 --> 00:27:03,399 Speaker 2: So speaking of like how people are handling things this 594 00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,440 Speaker 2: year and how you know you kind of see it 595 00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:06,640 Speaker 2: as being reactionary. 596 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 3: First off, do you. 597 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 2: Buy that drafters are approaching best Ball differently this year, 598 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:16,760 Speaker 2: specifically with running backs? And then for you personally, are 599 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 2: you going with mostly running back heavy builds? 600 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:24,400 Speaker 1: No, So I'm doing the same strategy that I did 601 00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:28,320 Speaker 1: last year. We've seen running back price in my mind 602 00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: this year kind of wily coyote over the cliff a bit, 603 00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: you know, based on two years where running backs mostly 604 00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:40,399 Speaker 1: stayed healthy. So that I feel is exactly what I 605 00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 1: mean when I talked about the short sighted way people 606 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,399 Speaker 1: are thinking about things. And you have even really smart 607 00:27:48,440 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 1: people in the industry who I believe in, think of 608 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 1: incredibly smart guys saying got to get your running backs, 609 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,680 Speaker 1: got to get your running backs. Well, my strategy has 610 00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:02,960 Speaker 1: been modi A. Again, the key thing is balance, right. 611 00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,680 Speaker 1: I don't want to overreact and go to zero running back. 612 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 1: It doesn't fit what I do. I also don't think 613 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: it fits the board as much. But with the quarterbacks 614 00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 1: moving up, with the running backs moving up, the one 615 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:23,199 Speaker 1: group that has really kind of fallen is the backup 616 00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,119 Speaker 1: running backs who for years it was like, you know, 617 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,040 Speaker 1: zero running back, get your backup running backs, you know, 618 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 1: and this year no one seems to be interested in them. 619 00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:36,400 Speaker 1: But they're just as likely to crush when you need 620 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,600 Speaker 1: them as they ever were. So I've been doing a 621 00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,880 Speaker 1: lot of hero running back builds and again I'll have 622 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,200 Speaker 1: a couple, you know, the other big point of emphasis 623 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,560 Speaker 1: for me is to mix up my builds more, not 624 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,280 Speaker 1: get locked into one strategy so much. You know Pat 625 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,400 Speaker 1: Karine when he was a big zero running back guy one. 626 00:28:57,160 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: You know Best ball Mania with a two running back star, right, 627 00:29:01,360 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: you want to mix up your builds, But the majority 628 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:07,719 Speaker 1: of my builds are Nothing makes me happier, especially early 629 00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,480 Speaker 1: when you could get some really good people at the 630 00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:13,880 Speaker 1: two three turn, getting that Beijon and the Gibbs, and 631 00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,600 Speaker 1: then really pushing running back to about the tenth round 632 00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 1: and then taking six or seven of them. I think fundamentally, 633 00:29:22,440 --> 00:29:25,640 Speaker 1: one of the key things that I believe that's different 634 00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 1: than most Best ball people is that early is when 635 00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:32,640 Speaker 1: you want to take a chance on the late guys 636 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:37,400 Speaker 1: because there's a lot of uncertainty. Now everyone seems to 637 00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 1: want to have certainty at the running back position. Well, 638 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 1: in a couple of weeks, some of these late guys 639 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,920 Speaker 1: who are eighteenth you know, sixteenth, seventeenth, eighteenth round guy 640 00:29:48,520 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 1: are going to win a role, or someone's gonna get 641 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:52,440 Speaker 1: hurt and they're gonna you know, like look at what 642 00:29:52,520 --> 00:29:55,400 Speaker 1: happened with Bill last year on the Redskins. He went 643 00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,720 Speaker 1: from an eighteenth round pick to like a tenth round pick, right. 644 00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:02,440 Speaker 1: I want to have those kind of guys in the 645 00:30:02,560 --> 00:30:06,120 Speaker 1: eighteenth round, in the seventeenth round, and then when we 646 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,880 Speaker 1: start getting more certainty, then I will be more likely 647 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: to go to five running backs instead of six or seven. 648 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,080 Speaker 1: But for now I want that. I don't want to 649 00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:19,240 Speaker 1: have to get the whole backfield to get lucky. But 650 00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: if I have that great hero running back, take another 651 00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:27,920 Speaker 1: one in the Jalen Warren kind of Remandree range, occasionally 652 00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:32,479 Speaker 1: a little earlier in that Swift Toton Henderson range, and 653 00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:35,600 Speaker 1: then just really load up on guys in the thirteenth 654 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,080 Speaker 1: through the eighteenth. I know some of them aren't going 655 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:40,960 Speaker 1: to hit right out of the gate, but some of 656 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: them might, and then the premise behind it is still 657 00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,240 Speaker 1: those guys can hit in the playoff weeks when you 658 00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:49,120 Speaker 1: really need them. 659 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:52,160 Speaker 2: So with that being said, are there any early round 660 00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 2: running backs rounds one, two, maybe into three that you 661 00:30:55,840 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: are just not on this year? 662 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I have one other big point of emphasis 663 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:08,840 Speaker 1: for me is I don't want to completely fade and 664 00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:15,080 Speaker 1: act like explosive. Guys are invisible. So you're right, So 665 00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,720 Speaker 1: last year Derrick Henry was invisible to me and boy, 666 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,400 Speaker 1: I was a genius right up until week seventeen when 667 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:23,240 Speaker 1: he was the guy. 668 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:24,240 Speaker 3: You know, it's funny. 669 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 2: It's funny Dereck Henry specifically for me, I think I 670 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:28,840 Speaker 2: was at like four and a half five percent last 671 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:32,800 Speaker 2: year with Henry, I had him on my finals team 672 00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 2: for the Millions and so he was the he was. 673 00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,760 Speaker 1: The you probably got a nice day. 674 00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I was top top forty in the in the Millis. 675 00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 3: But but it was but yes, right, that's right. 676 00:31:46,520 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 2: But to your point, to your point, I found as well. 677 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,920 Speaker 2: I think this is what you're alluding to, this this notion. 678 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:55,080 Speaker 2: I wasn't like super high on Henry last year, Like 679 00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:56,560 Speaker 2: I said, I was like four and a half five percent, 680 00:31:56,600 --> 00:31:59,880 Speaker 2: So I was underweight on Derrick Henry. But those are 681 00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,760 Speaker 2: around guys. It is very very difficult, even like you know, 682 00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 2: if you're not into Devana. I know it's a sexy 683 00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,840 Speaker 2: thing to not be into Devon ah Chan. 684 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:10,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that guy that gets five point seven 685 00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,600 Speaker 1: yard to carry it. I don't want any of him, right. 686 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:15,240 Speaker 2: It's like it's hard for me and I look, I 687 00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:18,000 Speaker 2: there there are definitely some some sites and some platforms 688 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 2: and from a season long perspective and stuff where I 689 00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,760 Speaker 2: think he is more of a fade. But regardless of that, 690 00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,480 Speaker 2: I'm still drafting Devon ah Chan because if you do 691 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:27,680 Speaker 2: enough drafts, you're also gonna end up getting values in 692 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,040 Speaker 2: certain spots as well. Is that basically how you're feeling, though, 693 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 2: is that you want that blanket if you. 694 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:36,080 Speaker 1: Will, trying to be more open to explosive guys that 695 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:40,720 Speaker 1: I don't. I'm more open to guys who we need 696 00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 1: to build portfolios where we're overweight and underweight. But human 697 00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: nature is we don't like to make a lot of decisions. 698 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,560 Speaker 1: That's just part of being human. So if you don't 699 00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,320 Speaker 1: like a guy, I mean you hear it on Twitter 700 00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,520 Speaker 1: every day. These are the six guys I will not 701 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:02,200 Speaker 1: be drafting in any draft. Okay, great, go for that. 702 00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,760 Speaker 1: You know, I hope it wasn't Derek Henry Week seventeen. Right. 703 00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:11,760 Speaker 1: So it's a combination of taking those guys occasionally but 704 00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,920 Speaker 1: also mixing them in on teams where maybe you're real 705 00:33:16,000 --> 00:33:19,240 Speaker 1: happy with your team or they fall a little bit 706 00:33:19,280 --> 00:33:22,840 Speaker 1: more than they normally do, but trying to put them 707 00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:27,200 Speaker 1: in situations That's where correlating Week seventeen. You know, like 708 00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,400 Speaker 1: if I take Derrick Henry, I'm much more likely to 709 00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:32,680 Speaker 1: try and come back with T Higgins the next round, 710 00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,360 Speaker 1: right right, because that could be a really great Week 711 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:39,120 Speaker 1: seventeen game. Again, that was the short sample last year, 712 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,440 Speaker 1: you know, the last two years. Because it's funny, I've 713 00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,720 Speaker 1: heard a lot of smart people say the same thing. 714 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,280 Speaker 1: I want to be more open to the guys that 715 00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:50,720 Speaker 1: I would have faded, And it's because Derek Henry went 716 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:54,320 Speaker 1: nuclear week seventeen. Kyle Pitts was another guy a lot 717 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:56,960 Speaker 1: of people hated, and that's who you needed week fifteen. 718 00:33:57,640 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 1: The key is to do it's smart and not get 719 00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:08,359 Speaker 1: caught up in being one sided with your takes. Yeah, 720 00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:12,920 Speaker 1: and then build and then building smarter, building every team 721 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 1: as if it is going to make Week seventeen. You 722 00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:19,200 Speaker 1: don't know, you don't want to. You know, you don't 723 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,640 Speaker 1: want to hurt your chances of getting to Week seventeen 724 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:27,439 Speaker 1: too much by just focusing on it. But you want 725 00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:31,400 Speaker 1: every team that gets there to have a story. So 726 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 1: like for me, tricking the pods, having that backup running 727 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,920 Speaker 1: back where with a stack where if one of the 728 00:34:39,000 --> 00:34:43,239 Speaker 1: two goes nuclear Week sixteen, now the other one is 729 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:47,160 Speaker 1: low owned Week seventeen and to get the backup running 730 00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 1: back with your stack doesn't cost you anything, right, Like 731 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 1: you know, if you've got Brock, Purdy and Evans, if 732 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,759 Speaker 1: you want to add Jordan James, you can get him 733 00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:02,879 Speaker 1: in the twentieth round on on Grands, right, Josh Allen? Right? 734 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:06,600 Speaker 1: Should I take Josh Allen with Cook? Well? Maybe, but boy, 735 00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,799 Speaker 1: I can get him with Ray Davis whenever I want. 736 00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,279 Speaker 2: Let's talk about exposure really quick, since we're kind of 737 00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:12,439 Speaker 2: on the topic right here. 738 00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:15,120 Speaker 3: The question I get a lot is. 739 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:18,759 Speaker 2: Sort of how much exposure should we have with a 740 00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:22,080 Speaker 2: certain player. I know that you mentioned last year you 741 00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,560 Speaker 2: tend to max out around like that twenty five percent 742 00:35:24,840 --> 00:35:28,040 Speaker 2: mark on certain players. Is your philosophy changed it all 743 00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:31,200 Speaker 2: year over year based on what you're you're speaking on here, 744 00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:33,319 Speaker 2: or is it you know? Are you like, you know, 745 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,760 Speaker 2: I know people talk about that like four percent blanket 746 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,080 Speaker 2: and stuff and making sure that you have some exposure 747 00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 2: to some of those really. 748 00:35:39,280 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: Other people who mock that and exactly and are like, well, 749 00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,719 Speaker 1: I don't need you know, And all I can say 750 00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:50,440 Speaker 1: is I've always had a five to fifteen percent rule 751 00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:55,800 Speaker 1: for first and second round picks because they're all really 752 00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:56,719 Speaker 1: good players. 753 00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:58,520 Speaker 3: They're good players, yeah. 754 00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:04,279 Speaker 1: And every year you see huge win The largest win 755 00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 1: rates are advance rates are almost owis with guys in 756 00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 1: the first and second round. They're the guys who pushed 757 00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,600 Speaker 1: the needle and the guys who get super charged are 758 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:17,160 Speaker 1: the ones who not only have a good season but 759 00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 1: go next to the guys who either get hurt or 760 00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:25,440 Speaker 1: something crazy happened, right, and we can't we don't know 761 00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,319 Speaker 1: who's gonna get hurt. I'll never forget. Famously, I was 762 00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,480 Speaker 1: back in the Saints Stays. I was like, I can't 763 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,840 Speaker 1: take Kamara or Michael Thomas. There's no way both of 764 00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,239 Speaker 1: them pay off their first round grade. Well, one year 765 00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:43,000 Speaker 1: Kamara got hurt, one year Michael Thomas got hurt, and 766 00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:46,799 Speaker 1: I had none of the other guy basically right, So 767 00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,719 Speaker 1: I have a five to fifteen rule. I tend to 768 00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 1: get to about twenty five to thirty on a couple 769 00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,520 Speaker 1: people each year, because you do want to take stands. 770 00:36:56,920 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 1: But I'm spending a lot more time in time boxes 771 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:04,759 Speaker 1: making sure that I'm mixing up who I'm taking players with. 772 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 1: It's easy during a long season to get caught up 773 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 1: in like right now, I'm super into Ray Davis. I 774 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 1: wasn't a couple months ago, but I want to make 775 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:17,080 Speaker 1: sure that. I mean, I took some Ray Davis when 776 00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:20,720 Speaker 1: I didn't like him, and because you have a group 777 00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,960 Speaker 1: of guys you're hot on in any window, I'm trying 778 00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,399 Speaker 1: to be more like an optimizer. And yes, I want 779 00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,160 Speaker 1: to have a lot of Ray Davis right now. I 780 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:32,440 Speaker 1: think he's one of the best late round picks. But 781 00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,719 Speaker 1: I also want to make sure I'm not forgetting some 782 00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,759 Speaker 1: of the other guys that I like, just maybe not 783 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:42,680 Speaker 1: as much, but like Demand Claiborne or a couple of 784 00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:46,560 Speaker 1: the other late running backs, Tank Bigsby. Because we don't 785 00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,759 Speaker 1: know who's going to get the injury, I want to 786 00:37:48,800 --> 00:37:51,560 Speaker 1: mix it up more. But rules are made to be broken, 787 00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:53,959 Speaker 1: and I do have a guy in the second round 788 00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:57,000 Speaker 1: who I want to be about twenty percent on this year, 789 00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:01,960 Speaker 1: So let's save that for one of your other We're 790 00:38:02,000 --> 00:38:04,440 Speaker 1: gonna we're gonna, uh, We're gonna get the heat up 791 00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:05,640 Speaker 1: in the kitchen a little bit. 792 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm not quite not quite sweating yet, but 793 00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,640 Speaker 2: by by the end, by the end, I'm actually shocked. 794 00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,399 Speaker 2: I'm not because Number one, I'm a sweater and Number two. 795 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,759 Speaker 2: I'm not even joking when I say that it's about 796 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:17,319 Speaker 2: ninety degree. 797 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:20,799 Speaker 1: No, I believe you. You have my empathy, and I 798 00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:24,359 Speaker 1: appreciate after the prepare of preparing that I did that. 799 00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:27,719 Speaker 1: You you're you're you're you're playing through pain, right, you are? 800 00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,320 Speaker 1: You are playing through pain, and we appreciate. 801 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,120 Speaker 3: Yes, all right, let's let's suck a tight end. 802 00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:34,080 Speaker 2: I know that you you do like brock Bowers at 803 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,480 Speaker 2: costs and that's the Does that mean yeah? 804 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 3: Does that mean that Okay, that's that's that's the dude. 805 00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I want. I want at least twenty percent 806 00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,080 Speaker 1: of brock Bowers this year. 807 00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:44,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm pretty into brock Bowers too. 808 00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:49,760 Speaker 2: Does that mean that you're not into the other earlier 809 00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,160 Speaker 2: round tight ends? What what's your general tight end approach? 810 00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,359 Speaker 2: Is it like brock Bowers or Busts for you this year? 811 00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,319 Speaker 1: It's not. I mean, you know, twenty percent means I've 812 00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,239 Speaker 1: got eighty percent of other people, I think. I think 813 00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,080 Speaker 1: one of the interesting things about the way the board 814 00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:07,520 Speaker 1: has laid out this year is with quarterback moving up, 815 00:39:07,719 --> 00:39:11,800 Speaker 1: with running back moving up, basically what you're running into 816 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,480 Speaker 1: is I like different tight end. There's a lot of 817 00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:19,120 Speaker 1: tight end ADPs that I like this year. So one 818 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:22,080 Speaker 1: of my other favorite like Fannin based on a couple 819 00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:27,000 Speaker 1: nonsense things, and he doesn't have a quarterback. He's now 820 00:39:27,280 --> 00:39:30,920 Speaker 1: like ninth round, tenth round right, like he's dropped about 821 00:39:30,920 --> 00:39:34,359 Speaker 1: two rounds and I sort of liked him where he was. 822 00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,120 Speaker 1: So a couple months ago, I was really into Tyler Kraft. 823 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,640 Speaker 1: I thought he was a great pick. But now a 824 00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:44,279 Speaker 1: little further back you get not only Fannin, who I like, 825 00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:48,719 Speaker 1: but Laporta, I mean, really talented guy going very late. 826 00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,600 Speaker 1: You know, you don't need it with tight ends. I 827 00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:55,040 Speaker 1: found you don't need the number one tight end. But 828 00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:59,040 Speaker 1: typically there's three guys every year that you want, you know, 829 00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,040 Speaker 1: that just out perform the top three, and they can 830 00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:05,759 Speaker 1: come from anywhere on the board. So I mix up 831 00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:10,080 Speaker 1: my tight end exposures. Historically, tight ends do not have 832 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:14,359 Speaker 1: the advance rate that running backs and wide receivers. They 833 00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:17,440 Speaker 1: don't move the needle in that way. Even Travis Kelcey 834 00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:22,560 Speaker 1: in his best year best years was about forty percent, 835 00:40:22,880 --> 00:40:27,560 Speaker 1: where you can get fifty sixty percent at the right 836 00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:32,319 Speaker 1: running back or wide receiver. So I would say that 837 00:40:32,719 --> 00:40:35,839 Speaker 1: tight end for me is more about being different than 838 00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:40,480 Speaker 1: the field and making sure that I have enough strength 839 00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:47,719 Speaker 1: in that group that it accentuates what I'm doing with 840 00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 1: the rest of that team. 841 00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:53,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, you mentioned it with quarterbacks. Now quarterbacks are going earlier. 842 00:40:54,120 --> 00:40:58,680 Speaker 2: It's been a really interesting conversation piece with guests on 843 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:00,760 Speaker 2: this show talking about the corequarterback position. 844 00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:02,799 Speaker 3: It's just strange how. 845 00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:05,680 Speaker 2: You know, you get these typical qb ones, you know, 846 00:41:05,760 --> 00:41:07,759 Speaker 2: Josh Allen aside, you know, you get the typical qb 847 00:41:07,800 --> 00:41:10,319 Speaker 2: ones going up maybe a little bit earlier than they 848 00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:13,120 Speaker 2: otherwise would be or in a spot where they generally 849 00:41:13,120 --> 00:41:15,279 Speaker 2: would go. But the QB twos are getting pushed up some. 850 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,640 Speaker 1: That's exactly my point. What's happened is because running backs 851 00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:24,640 Speaker 1: have been pushed up, the top, quarterbacks other than Josh 852 00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:26,920 Speaker 1: Allen are actually cheaper than they were last year. 853 00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,759 Speaker 3: Yeah yeah, right, yeah, like they're more, they're more. I'm 854 00:41:29,760 --> 00:41:30,879 Speaker 3: getting more of. 855 00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 2: That tier than I've ever gotten in my best ball history, 856 00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:35,880 Speaker 2: let's say my best ball one. 857 00:41:35,960 --> 00:41:41,520 Speaker 1: But it ties in to your original late round QB theory. Right, 858 00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:47,239 Speaker 1: if you get two, but you get them in the window, right, 859 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,000 Speaker 1: that was your theory, you get too. Yeah, but two, 860 00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,840 Speaker 1: but if you know, it was two top fifteen guys, 861 00:41:54,160 --> 00:41:57,440 Speaker 1: but if you get those two in the window, it 862 00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:02,800 Speaker 1: could win. So to me, what we've seen is because 863 00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,239 Speaker 1: everyone has to have, right, the cool kids are all 864 00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:10,680 Speaker 1: getting three quarterbacks, so everyone needs three quarterbacks. It's pushed 865 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:16,120 Speaker 1: up the weaker quarterbacks, right, But the good, really good 866 00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,879 Speaker 1: guys who could break fantasy are actually cheaper. I've got 867 00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:24,239 Speaker 1: a lot of Jayden Daniels. I've got a ton of 868 00:42:24,560 --> 00:42:27,719 Speaker 1: Justin Herbert. I've got a lot of Trevor Lawrence. I 869 00:42:27,760 --> 00:42:32,760 Speaker 1: love Dart, I love Purdy. There's like six or seven 870 00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,560 Speaker 1: eight guys in that range. And again, I don't want 871 00:42:36,600 --> 00:42:39,800 Speaker 1: to win a quarterback because they're not the big advance 872 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:45,359 Speaker 1: rate position, and you don't know which game is going 873 00:42:45,440 --> 00:42:48,480 Speaker 1: to blow up week fifteen, sixteen seventeen. I want to 874 00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:52,120 Speaker 1: mix all that up. And then there's one the other 875 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:55,640 Speaker 1: guy who's going later than he had the last two years, 876 00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:59,640 Speaker 1: and that's Baker Mayfield, who I really like, who if 877 00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,479 Speaker 1: I meet, he's my number one target. He was hurt 878 00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,520 Speaker 1: play through injury. Most guys would have went on ir 879 00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:11,000 Speaker 1: His offensive line was hurt, his receivers were hurt. But 880 00:43:11,160 --> 00:43:15,240 Speaker 1: everyone just wants to focus in on what happened last 881 00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,160 Speaker 1: year to that deam and of course Mike lev Evans 882 00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,360 Speaker 1: left well. I book is still there, not that I 883 00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:24,600 Speaker 1: like him as much as his ADP, but Godwin is 884 00:43:24,640 --> 00:43:27,800 Speaker 1: there mcmill and I is one of my most known players. 885 00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,160 Speaker 1: So that is really my focus at quarterback. 886 00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,239 Speaker 2: The really interesting part about QB for me is that 887 00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:38,000 Speaker 2: when you finish a draft and you you know you're 888 00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:40,160 Speaker 2: sitting in like round nine or something, and you decide 889 00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:42,800 Speaker 2: to go running back instead of getting a quarterback or something, 890 00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:45,640 Speaker 2: and you finish a draft and you look back because 891 00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,919 Speaker 2: because if you do pass in round nine, round ten, 892 00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:50,160 Speaker 2: which is where a lot of these really good you know, 893 00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:52,959 Speaker 2: lower QB ones, high MQB twos will end up going 894 00:43:54,239 --> 00:43:57,480 Speaker 2: if you pass on one, and you then you then 895 00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,960 Speaker 2: feel the panic a little bit, you know, because other 896 00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,120 Speaker 2: people are drafting three quarterbacks and you know that you 897 00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,480 Speaker 2: need to complete stacks or you want a. 898 00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:06,840 Speaker 3: Three quarterback build yourself. 899 00:44:07,120 --> 00:44:08,640 Speaker 2: And you finish the draft and you look at it 900 00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,600 Speaker 2: and you're like, why didn't I just take Brock Purdy 901 00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:13,880 Speaker 2: in round ten when CJ. 902 00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,080 Speaker 3: Stroud is going around. 903 00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:19,120 Speaker 1: Especially since the running backs there are just okay, right. 904 00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:22,439 Speaker 2: It's the opportunity costs is not significant enough to doing 905 00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:22,879 Speaker 2: it right. 906 00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:26,640 Speaker 1: So exactly, Eric binfor of Spike Week. I'm big into 907 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,960 Speaker 1: the Spike Week discord. He load of those guys in there. 908 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,040 Speaker 1: I mean, it's the best discord for best ball. It 909 00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:37,320 Speaker 1: is high level, intelligent stuff that we can just bounce 910 00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,280 Speaker 1: off each other every day. But Eric did a pod 911 00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:42,480 Speaker 1: earlier in the year where he says, I'm just getting 912 00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:48,520 Speaker 1: my two quarterbacks. I'm just not playing that game right right. Occasionally, 913 00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:51,920 Speaker 1: you know, I want some Jordan Love, I like Baker Mayfield. 914 00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:55,920 Speaker 1: I want some Malik Willis. But I'm acting for the 915 00:44:55,960 --> 00:44:59,840 Speaker 1: most part like the guys after Malik Willis aren't there 916 00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:03,560 Speaker 1: in eighteen rounds and a lot of times in twenty rounds. 917 00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,960 Speaker 1: I just don't think those guys have the kind of 918 00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:11,440 Speaker 1: upside that some of the late quarterbacks who went in 919 00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:16,480 Speaker 1: the sixteenth and eighteenth round in previous years have, right, right, right, 920 00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:19,279 Speaker 1: So if that's what beats me this year, I'll just 921 00:45:19,480 --> 00:45:22,720 Speaker 1: tip my hat. But I just don't want to chase 922 00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:25,160 Speaker 1: quarterback in most of my drafts. 923 00:45:25,239 --> 00:45:29,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, the the only reason I don't do 924 00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,840 Speaker 2: it in every draft is because of the exposure discussion 925 00:45:31,880 --> 00:45:34,400 Speaker 2: we just had. You know, like I still want some 926 00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,120 Speaker 2: exposure to some of the guys where that cost is 927 00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:39,920 Speaker 2: being incurred, but at the same but at the same time, 928 00:45:40,600 --> 00:45:42,440 Speaker 2: you know, over on draftings, for instance, you're gonna go 929 00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:45,160 Speaker 2: in the late seventh into the mid eighth round, and 930 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,480 Speaker 2: that's where Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, those guys are gonna 931 00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,279 Speaker 2: get drafted. And the wide receivers that you're drafting them 932 00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:55,399 Speaker 2: over are like Courtland Sutton, you know, like, which it's fine, 933 00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,279 Speaker 2: Like Courtland you might love Courtland Sutton, that's fine, or. 934 00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:02,399 Speaker 1: Like Dave and such, yeah you might, or you might 935 00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,480 Speaker 1: love Pat Bryant in the twentieth. 936 00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,239 Speaker 2: Rounds exactly exactly, but like you know, someone like like 937 00:46:08,600 --> 00:46:10,480 Speaker 2: they're they're players that really aren't. 938 00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,239 Speaker 3: Gonna gonna move you. You know, they're not. 939 00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:15,719 Speaker 2: Gonna get you so excited a wide receiver, even the 940 00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,680 Speaker 2: running backs where you're you're in your in ambiguous backfield territory. 941 00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,520 Speaker 2: So you do want to throw some darts, you know, 942 00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,600 Speaker 2: eventually and get some exposure. But again you can go 943 00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:28,479 Speaker 2: a round or two later and on DK Jonathan Brooks 944 00:46:28,560 --> 00:46:30,920 Speaker 2: is still going that late like he's still just as 945 00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:33,200 Speaker 2: much of an upside swing as some of the other 946 00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:35,840 Speaker 2: running backs you'd beginning two rounds earlier. So like, again, 947 00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:39,120 Speaker 2: i just feel like the way that the typical draft 948 00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,240 Speaker 2: goes for me is that I'm staring at these quarterbacks. 949 00:46:41,280 --> 00:46:44,000 Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts goes in round seven consistently, you know, and 950 00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:45,440 Speaker 3: I'm staring at. 951 00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:47,839 Speaker 2: These guys, and I'm like, there's not a big enough 952 00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,040 Speaker 2: difference between the running backs and wide receivers that I'd 953 00:46:50,080 --> 00:46:53,120 Speaker 2: be drafting here versus what I'd be getting two rounds later. 954 00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,520 Speaker 3: Whereas if quarterbacks. 955 00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,279 Speaker 2: Starts going and the run starts, you can't just say 956 00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:02,319 Speaker 2: I'm gonna ignore this run because quarterback are supply does 957 00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,759 Speaker 2: run out. You know, it does get to a point 958 00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:07,600 Speaker 2: where you're like, oh crap, Bryce Young is the top 959 00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:11,360 Speaker 2: available quarterback, and Bryce Young, for from from my perspective, 960 00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:13,439 Speaker 2: I just don't look at a guy like Bryce Young 961 00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:16,040 Speaker 2: and think this guy's gonna win me anything in fantasy football. 962 00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:18,759 Speaker 3: You know, like it's just it's just not something that. 963 00:47:19,680 --> 00:47:23,240 Speaker 1: Pretty much the same thing. Yeah, it could happen, anything 964 00:47:23,440 --> 00:47:24,240 Speaker 1: could happen. 965 00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,920 Speaker 2: Yeah, I would argue, even with Ward at least like 966 00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:28,960 Speaker 2: we haven't seen you know, with Bryce Young, we have 967 00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:33,400 Speaker 2: like multiple seasons of data of him in this offense, 968 00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:35,160 Speaker 2: and all you know, there's there's at least some like 969 00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,480 Speaker 2: of this like mystique, you know, with with a guy 970 00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:40,960 Speaker 2: like Ward, whereas like Bryce Young, I'm like, we know 971 00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:44,600 Speaker 2: what we're getting at this point, you know, generally too inconsistent. 972 00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:49,399 Speaker 1: It's not that he can't have good weeks, but he's 973 00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,600 Speaker 1: he's not going to really help your advance rate most likely. 974 00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:55,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't doesn't help that he has a week 975 00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,960 Speaker 2: seventeen matchup against against the seahawksy. 976 00:47:58,080 --> 00:48:02,399 Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, well, and again we can overrate that, 977 00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:05,640 Speaker 1: you know, of the bad matchups a little bit, totally 978 00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:11,319 Speaker 1: but totally. Again, there's two advantages and you've hit on them, 979 00:48:11,920 --> 00:48:16,680 Speaker 1: but I'll summarize one is they're just the best picks 980 00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,480 Speaker 1: where they go right. They're cheaper than where you know, 981 00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:22,480 Speaker 1: Drake May going in the fifth, sixth round. I mean, 982 00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,520 Speaker 1: Drake May. Could you know? I thought of something interesting 983 00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:30,080 Speaker 1: because everyone talks about how they had such a bad 984 00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,719 Speaker 1: schedule last year and they're not going to be able 985 00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,400 Speaker 1: to do it again this year because they have a 986 00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:37,680 Speaker 1: better schedule. And then I saw someone post on Twitter 987 00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:40,920 Speaker 1: just basically they shut Drake May down in the second 988 00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:45,560 Speaker 1: half last year, right, So it's actually a good thing 989 00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:47,839 Speaker 1: that they're playing a tougher schedule. If you're a Drake 990 00:48:47,880 --> 00:48:51,239 Speaker 1: May guy. If I have the stack, it's easy. If 991 00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:55,480 Speaker 1: I have lad mcconki, I'm taking Justin Higraphy's there. If 992 00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:58,879 Speaker 1: I have one of the Dallas wide receivers, I'm taking Dak. 993 00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:03,120 Speaker 1: There's enough really good ones in that range. You know, 994 00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,400 Speaker 1: it's not like you're going to get too much of 995 00:49:05,440 --> 00:49:08,719 Speaker 1: them because there's like twelve of them, right, you know, 996 00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:12,920 Speaker 1: you know from Lamar down to for me it's dart 997 00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:17,439 Speaker 1: or Mahomes. Yeah, you know, it's like twelve guys, right, Yeah, 998 00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:17,799 Speaker 1: you can. 999 00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:21,240 Speaker 2: Even go I mean you could even argue to Kyler 1000 00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:22,000 Speaker 2: bo Nix. 1001 00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,759 Speaker 1: I like Kyler a lot. Yeah. I think Kyler is 1002 00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:30,480 Speaker 1: has always been pretty good for fantasy football exactly, and 1003 00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,080 Speaker 1: people don't like him because he can't do this and 1004 00:49:33,120 --> 00:49:36,480 Speaker 1: he can't do that. I'm definitely overweight on Kyler. He's 1005 00:49:36,520 --> 00:49:40,279 Speaker 1: another one of my that's like, if I have Justin 1006 00:49:40,360 --> 00:49:43,480 Speaker 1: Jefferson or I take Addison and I miss on that 1007 00:49:43,560 --> 00:49:47,319 Speaker 1: second quarterback, you know, like, so what I'm doing. And 1008 00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:50,160 Speaker 1: then there's a couple like Drake May Justin Herbert who 1009 00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:54,160 Speaker 1: you can backstack in that range, Jackson Dart you can backstack, 1010 00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:57,640 Speaker 1: you get Isaiah Likely, you take Mooney. It's not the 1011 00:49:57,680 --> 00:50:02,200 Speaker 1: best thing, but it's it's perfectly reasonable, right, And those 1012 00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,480 Speaker 1: guys can score points and get you there without a 1013 00:50:05,560 --> 00:50:09,400 Speaker 1: true number one, right like Latman Conky's going is the 1014 00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:14,080 Speaker 1: true number one? Is he gonna be? Maybe? Probably, but 1015 00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,640 Speaker 1: maybe not maybe one of my favorite players of Ronde 1016 00:50:17,760 --> 00:50:21,600 Speaker 1: Gadsden is the guy you need. Right. So I think 1017 00:50:21,640 --> 00:50:26,200 Speaker 1: that you're accomplishing two things. You're getting a really great 1018 00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,839 Speaker 1: value overall to build your team, which to me is 1019 00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:33,920 Speaker 1: always my most important thing. I want as much talent 1020 00:50:34,080 --> 00:50:36,480 Speaker 1: on my team as I can, and then I want 1021 00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,560 Speaker 1: to take all these other strategies to fit it together 1022 00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:42,600 Speaker 1: and make a coherent story. But the second thing is 1023 00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:44,880 Speaker 1: if you get those two quarterbacks, you don't have to 1024 00:50:44,920 --> 00:50:48,440 Speaker 1: think about quarterback anymore. It's out of you know, Like 1025 00:50:48,520 --> 00:50:50,920 Speaker 1: if I take brock Bauers in the second and I 1026 00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,680 Speaker 1: get two quarterbacks and the one in the fifth one 1027 00:50:53,719 --> 00:50:57,320 Speaker 1: in the eighth, I've stacked. Boy. It makes the rest 1028 00:50:57,360 --> 00:51:00,880 Speaker 1: of the draft really easy. I can just cherry value 1029 00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,960 Speaker 1: right guys that I really like that fell in that draft. 1030 00:51:06,920 --> 00:51:08,920 Speaker 3: That's one thing that goes unnoticed. 1031 00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,040 Speaker 2: I think a lot in these discussions just about like 1032 00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:15,160 Speaker 2: roster optimization and strategy and such, is the flexibility in 1033 00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,320 Speaker 2: the late rounds and obtaining some of the falling value. 1034 00:51:18,440 --> 00:51:19,600 Speaker 3: Like you're saying, you. 1035 00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:21,719 Speaker 2: Know, if you're stuck and you're like, oh, crap, I 1036 00:51:21,800 --> 00:51:24,200 Speaker 2: only have three running backs and it's round fifteen or 1037 00:51:24,200 --> 00:51:25,799 Speaker 2: something like that, and you're like, I gotta just pound 1038 00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,160 Speaker 2: running back from here on out, then then you're going 1039 00:51:28,200 --> 00:51:30,120 Speaker 2: to be missing out on all of the other values 1040 00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:34,000 Speaker 2: that potentially exists at why And it's so tilting as 1041 00:51:34,000 --> 00:51:35,680 Speaker 2: you're doing that, and you're sitting there and you're seeing 1042 00:51:35,719 --> 00:51:39,000 Speaker 2: this guy who's sitting two rounds later than he typically sits, 1043 00:51:39,040 --> 00:51:41,440 Speaker 2: and you can't go after him just because of the 1044 00:51:41,719 --> 00:51:43,400 Speaker 2: way your particular build is sitting. 1045 00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:43,640 Speaker 1: Right. 1046 00:51:43,719 --> 00:51:46,200 Speaker 2: So I do think that the flexibility aspect of things 1047 00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:47,800 Speaker 2: is something that really does go unnoticed. 1048 00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:53,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think that's an advanced best ball thought, 1049 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:57,800 Speaker 1: you know, and it's not one that'll get your clicks, sure, 1050 00:51:57,840 --> 00:52:02,640 Speaker 1: but it is really really important to be a really 1051 00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:07,440 Speaker 1: good basketball player in my mind right, and also knowing 1052 00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:12,560 Speaker 1: where in each draft the values are right, like like 1053 00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,920 Speaker 1: I like Jonah Coleman a lot. Right, I like Emma 1054 00:52:16,040 --> 00:52:19,800 Speaker 1: Johnson a lot, I like Claiborne, I like Tank Bigsby. 1055 00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,759 Speaker 1: So I know those guys will be there. So I 1056 00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:25,840 Speaker 1: just need to have enough strength in my running position 1057 00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:29,799 Speaker 1: back position early that I can mix and match them 1058 00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,040 Speaker 1: while you know, like lately I've been very hot on 1059 00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:37,480 Speaker 1: Denzel Boston, I'm very high on jay Len McMillan. You 1060 00:52:37,520 --> 00:52:40,239 Speaker 1: know where, I don't have to take a running back 1061 00:52:40,239 --> 00:52:43,520 Speaker 1: there if I don't want to. So one of my 1062 00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:48,319 Speaker 1: key things that I've always focused on is sometimes there's 1063 00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,799 Speaker 1: someone when you pick in the fourth, fifth, sixth round 1064 00:52:50,800 --> 00:52:53,200 Speaker 1: that you're just so excited about that he's there. You're 1065 00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:56,040 Speaker 1: taking them right, doesn't matter about your bill, You've got 1066 00:52:56,040 --> 00:53:00,920 Speaker 1: plenty of time to fill it out. But as a fallback, 1067 00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:04,520 Speaker 1: if there's a bunch of guys and I'm like, eh, right, 1068 00:53:05,520 --> 00:53:08,640 Speaker 1: I want to keep my build as even as I can, 1069 00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:13,839 Speaker 1: because then it gives me the flexibility to not have 1070 00:53:14,000 --> 00:53:15,760 Speaker 1: happened what you just mentioned later. 1071 00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:17,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's underrated. It's underrated. 1072 00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,839 Speaker 2: And this is this, honestly to me, through doing this 1073 00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,600 Speaker 2: is one of the disadvantages to doing a zero A 1074 00:53:23,600 --> 00:53:27,520 Speaker 2: true zero RB draft is that you you do lack 1075 00:53:27,640 --> 00:53:30,319 Speaker 2: flexibility once you get out of like round six, is 1076 00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:33,200 Speaker 2: that you if you get a falling wide receiver value, 1077 00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:35,640 Speaker 2: it's not nearly as easy to snag that value up 1078 00:53:35,840 --> 00:53:39,960 Speaker 2: and snatch it because you are already overweight at that 1079 00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,600 Speaker 2: position and you're gonna you're gonna be struggling in other positions. 1080 00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,120 Speaker 2: I'm not saying that you can't go zero RB. I'm 1081 00:53:45,160 --> 00:53:47,799 Speaker 2: just saying that it's a thing that you should be 1082 00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:50,640 Speaker 2: thinking about as you deploy these strategies, as your drafts 1083 00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:51,200 Speaker 2: are going on. 1084 00:53:51,280 --> 00:53:53,520 Speaker 3: You know, it's something that that should be top of mind. 1085 00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:56,280 Speaker 1: For a couple of years, zero RB became a cult 1086 00:53:56,840 --> 00:53:59,480 Speaker 1: and if you didn't do it, you know, you're the 1087 00:53:59,520 --> 00:54:02,360 Speaker 1: cult was like, oh no, you know, And now the 1088 00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:05,280 Speaker 1: cults telling you you have to have three running Which 1089 00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,680 Speaker 1: is so funny that the same guys who would shame 1090 00:54:07,760 --> 00:54:11,160 Speaker 1: you for not going zero running back are now shaming 1091 00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:13,640 Speaker 1: you because you're not drafting three running backs in the 1092 00:54:13,680 --> 00:54:14,800 Speaker 1: first four rounds. 1093 00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:16,400 Speaker 3: Well, the first year I did that. 1094 00:54:16,480 --> 00:54:18,759 Speaker 2: So this is the year three of the show, and 1095 00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,600 Speaker 2: the first year I did it, I didn't have great 1096 00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:22,640 Speaker 2: success with my It was the first year that I 1097 00:54:22,640 --> 00:54:24,640 Speaker 2: was really max entering and play, you know, doing like 1098 00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,880 Speaker 2: a thousand time to get it and and yeah, and 1099 00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,239 Speaker 2: like I had always played, you know, like but not 1100 00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:33,960 Speaker 2: to that volume and such, and I went, I went 1101 00:54:34,080 --> 00:54:37,600 Speaker 2: so heavy with the same structure over and over again, 1102 00:54:37,760 --> 00:54:40,600 Speaker 2: largely zero RB, and I had a bad year, you know, 1103 00:54:40,719 --> 00:54:43,360 Speaker 2: just not a good season. Changed it up last year. 1104 00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:45,360 Speaker 2: You know, I'm doing it again this year where I 1105 00:54:45,719 --> 00:54:47,839 Speaker 2: still have some zero RB teams. Then't get me wrong, 1106 00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:49,320 Speaker 2: Like every once in a while, I'll draft. 1107 00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:52,360 Speaker 1: Every year I will have again, like if I'm in 1108 00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:57,759 Speaker 1: round four and I've got two wide receivers and back 1109 00:54:57,880 --> 00:55:01,960 Speaker 1: bowers and Neighbors is sitting there at the end of 1110 00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:05,400 Speaker 1: the fourth round, somehow I'm taking Neighbors and I'm going 1111 00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:06,879 Speaker 1: to figure out running back in. 1112 00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:09,480 Speaker 2: That draft, right right, You can still like, yeah, you 1113 00:55:09,520 --> 00:55:12,040 Speaker 2: still do those things based on the falling values and such. 1114 00:55:12,080 --> 00:55:15,800 Speaker 2: But I do think that you know, being so stuck 1115 00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,719 Speaker 2: on that one approach, like I said, and like you 1116 00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:22,120 Speaker 2: were saying, it's so important to recognize how handcuffed it 1117 00:55:22,160 --> 00:55:24,600 Speaker 2: makes you as you go through the draft. If you're 1118 00:55:24,640 --> 00:55:27,319 Speaker 2: not you know, balancing things out, if you don't just 1119 00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:29,120 Speaker 2: know that if you're not having a balue, you don't 1120 00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,120 Speaker 2: have to have the balance approach. I'm saying, though, if 1121 00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:35,279 Speaker 2: you don't have that balanced approach, understand that that means 1122 00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:36,960 Speaker 2: you're not going to have as easy of a time 1123 00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:38,560 Speaker 2: finding those falling values late. 1124 00:55:38,800 --> 00:55:42,879 Speaker 1: I tend to be too risk averse, right, I think 1125 00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:46,240 Speaker 1: every human is either leans a little too risk averse 1126 00:55:46,800 --> 00:55:49,319 Speaker 1: or a little too safety averse. You need to know 1127 00:55:49,440 --> 00:55:53,040 Speaker 1: yourself and you need to push yourself out of whatever 1128 00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:57,759 Speaker 1: your comfort zone is. Because everyone's a hero and boasting 1129 00:55:57,840 --> 00:56:01,280 Speaker 1: that they you know that I don't care about safety. 1130 00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:03,360 Speaker 1: You know I'm here to win a million dollars And 1131 00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:05,879 Speaker 1: then I can't tell you how many guys like that 1132 00:56:06,000 --> 00:56:10,359 Speaker 1: eventually took on my strategy for exposure because I got 1133 00:56:10,400 --> 00:56:13,560 Speaker 1: that strategy because one year I went real heavy and 1134 00:56:13,640 --> 00:56:18,120 Speaker 1: I got crushed. Right, smart people learn from their mistakes. 1135 00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,440 Speaker 2: I want to talk about Week seventeen because we kind 1136 00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:22,800 Speaker 2: of touched on it earlier. I saw a really interesting 1137 00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:25,960 Speaker 2: theory might have come from Pete Overzet, but he was 1138 00:56:25,960 --> 00:56:30,200 Speaker 2: talking about how people aren't talking about Week seventeen correlation, 1139 00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:33,520 Speaker 2: which you alluded to earlier as much this year, partially 1140 00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:37,279 Speaker 2: because there are so many streamers that are streaming with 1141 00:56:37,800 --> 00:56:42,600 Speaker 2: overlays and tools and such and optimizers for while they're drafting, 1142 00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:47,000 Speaker 2: and so they're not having to speak aloud about those correlations. 1143 00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:48,600 Speaker 2: Do you buy into that at all or do you 1144 00:56:48,600 --> 00:56:50,319 Speaker 2: think that it's just one of those things where it's 1145 00:56:50,320 --> 00:56:52,439 Speaker 2: just not a hot enough topic for people to really 1146 00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:52,839 Speaker 2: get into. 1147 00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:56,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. I lean towards it being that it was the 1148 00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:59,960 Speaker 1: hot topic for two years and now it's not. Yeah. 1149 00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:05,960 Speaker 1: I went to the spike we tools and I looked 1150 00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:12,080 Speaker 1: at every early correlation. So like Derrick Henry, how many 1151 00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:16,280 Speaker 1: times he was with Jamar Chase Chase right down Higgins 1152 00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,520 Speaker 1: for every week seventeen game? And I've done that in 1153 00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,280 Speaker 1: past years and you would see a ten, fifteen, sometimes 1154 00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:28,040 Speaker 1: twenty percent increase if there was a guy who was correlated. 1155 00:57:28,600 --> 00:57:32,000 Speaker 1: I don't think people are correlating early intentionally, and I 1156 00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:35,200 Speaker 1: think that's the big advantage. You know, a lot of 1157 00:57:35,240 --> 00:57:37,880 Speaker 1: people also think and there's nothing wrong with doing this. 1158 00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:41,160 Speaker 1: Like if I have Drake May and Pat Bryant, who 1159 00:57:41,200 --> 00:57:44,760 Speaker 1: I like anyway, is in the seventeenth you know, seventeenth boy, 1160 00:57:44,800 --> 00:57:47,480 Speaker 1: that makes it easy, right, I get a week seventeen 1161 00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:51,360 Speaker 1: correlation but so many times when we just drop an 1162 00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:55,880 Speaker 1: a late guy in to either a stack or a correlation, 1163 00:57:56,840 --> 00:58:00,640 Speaker 1: it doesn't have the effect of doing it with really 1164 00:58:00,720 --> 00:58:05,120 Speaker 1: talented guys early. And you add that to something again 1165 00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,960 Speaker 1: that we talk about a lot in Spike Week. You know, 1166 00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:13,440 Speaker 1: ADP is so static early, and really the chance of 1167 00:58:13,640 --> 00:58:16,840 Speaker 1: these guys be you know, like, what's the chance that's 1168 00:58:16,920 --> 00:58:19,479 Speaker 1: you know, Saquon Barkley is going to be that much 1169 00:58:19,520 --> 00:58:23,920 Speaker 1: better than Chase Brown right right, or Breese. 1170 00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:25,920 Speaker 3: All that whole tier is. Yeah, a lot of those 1171 00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:27,160 Speaker 3: guys are just so giant. 1172 00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:30,919 Speaker 1: So mix it up. And part of that not all 1173 00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:36,440 Speaker 1: the time you mix it up, but having unique early pairings, 1174 00:58:37,760 --> 00:58:41,360 Speaker 1: even in tournament best ball, it's really important. I think 1175 00:58:41,480 --> 00:58:44,840 Speaker 1: in which I don't play like on Drafters because I 1176 00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:50,160 Speaker 1: can't in Pennsylvania, but I think that moving guys up, 1177 00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:54,280 Speaker 1: it just doesn't happen. Moxie, who's one of the guys 1178 00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:58,320 Speaker 1: that he did studies on that people just don't move up. 1179 00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:02,440 Speaker 1: So you know, sometimes I'll move up a Zay Flowers 1180 00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:05,720 Speaker 1: so that I can get him with t Higgins. Later 1181 00:59:05,800 --> 00:59:09,600 Speaker 1: they go right near each other, and now Zay's moved 1182 00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,000 Speaker 1: up a little bit, so occasionally you can get it, 1183 00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:16,600 Speaker 1: but getting those correlations early, even if you don't end 1184 00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:19,040 Speaker 1: up getting one of the two quarterbacks in the game. 1185 00:59:19,760 --> 00:59:22,760 Speaker 1: You know those guys could you know a few years 1186 00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,720 Speaker 1: ago it was they were late. But I'm on Ross, 1187 00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:29,160 Speaker 1: Saint Brown and Penny both went off in a week 1188 00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:33,480 Speaker 1: seventeen game and if you didn't have that correlation, you 1189 00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:38,680 Speaker 1: didn't win money. Right, So there's definitely advantages to it, 1190 00:59:38,720 --> 00:59:41,959 Speaker 1: and there's more advantages because people aren't doing it as much. 1191 00:59:42,720 --> 00:59:45,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, I've had this conversation with some people where I 1192 00:59:46,000 --> 00:59:49,680 Speaker 2: think ADP in general is just so forced by stacking. 1193 00:59:50,000 --> 00:59:52,360 Speaker 3: Of course, right, you know, quarterbacks will go. 1194 00:59:52,560 --> 00:59:56,640 Speaker 1: Joe Burrow goes way earlier than he probably should because 1195 00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,720 Speaker 1: if the Chase guy doesn't get him, the Higgins guy's gonna. 1196 00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:00,720 Speaker 3: Take exactly exactly. 1197 01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:02,560 Speaker 2: And you can always tell, you know, you know, the 1198 01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:05,600 Speaker 2: unstacked quarter the guys, the quarterbacks like Jackson Dart who 1199 01:00:05,600 --> 01:00:08,120 Speaker 2: don't have you know, I mean obviously of the league neighbors, 1200 01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:10,040 Speaker 2: but people are are. If you're a neighbors and there's 1201 01:00:10,040 --> 01:00:12,840 Speaker 2: only one player for Jackson Dart to really stack early. 1202 01:00:13,240 --> 01:00:15,120 Speaker 2: When that's the case, then those guys can fall a 1203 01:00:15,120 --> 01:00:17,520 Speaker 2: little bit from from a pure value perspective, but then 1204 01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,600 Speaker 2: the other the other piece of that though from from 1205 01:00:19,600 --> 01:00:22,919 Speaker 2: an ADP standpoint, is is the the the stacking stuff, 1206 01:00:22,960 --> 01:00:24,760 Speaker 2: you know, the week seventeen stuff that you're talking about 1207 01:00:24,800 --> 01:00:27,040 Speaker 2: a little bit, and the it's very easy to get 1208 01:00:27,040 --> 01:00:29,600 Speaker 2: in this like robotic mode where you're like, oh, I 1209 01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:32,040 Speaker 2: don't really want to take Kenneth Walker at two oh 1210 01:00:32,080 --> 01:00:34,760 Speaker 2: two if sometimes he's gonna fall to two oh six, 1211 01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:37,160 Speaker 2: because I can just wait and get the value when 1212 01:00:37,160 --> 01:00:38,120 Speaker 2: that draft happens. 1213 01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:40,080 Speaker 3: I'm in the two oh six spot, I suppose. 1214 01:00:40,280 --> 01:00:42,560 Speaker 2: But in the end, it's like, there's you got to 1215 01:00:42,600 --> 01:00:45,040 Speaker 2: you gotta think about the probability and the realistic outcomes 1216 01:00:45,080 --> 01:00:47,360 Speaker 2: of all of these players and how tight you know, 1217 01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:48,640 Speaker 2: there's a reason that they're tiered toget. 1218 01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:55,080 Speaker 1: There's gonna be six hundred thousand or so, you know teams, right, 1219 01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:59,360 Speaker 1: and if Walker goes off two six or two five 1220 01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:04,120 Speaker 1: and five hundred thousand of them, what you know if 1221 01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:07,680 Speaker 1: you take him at one eight and then come back 1222 01:01:07,720 --> 01:01:12,080 Speaker 1: with someone else in that same tier, yeah, it might 1223 01:01:12,160 --> 01:01:16,320 Speaker 1: not be the most optimal thing. Walker might not deserve 1224 01:01:16,400 --> 01:01:18,640 Speaker 1: to go one eight because and if he did, he 1225 01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:24,280 Speaker 1: probably would but that doesn't mean in one season he 1226 01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:26,680 Speaker 1: couldn't be the guy that you know, like I push 1227 01:01:26,760 --> 01:01:30,800 Speaker 1: up Ashton Genty, I'm not that high on CMC or 1228 01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:36,440 Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor. At ADP. I'll push up Ashton Genty because 1229 01:01:36,480 --> 01:01:39,280 Speaker 1: most people who pass on CMC and Taylor are going 1230 01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:42,960 Speaker 1: to take either aman Ra Jefferson or c d. Lamb. 1231 01:01:43,480 --> 01:01:46,040 Speaker 1: So I'll move up Genty or sometimes Barkley. 1232 01:01:46,600 --> 01:01:50,320 Speaker 2: All right, give me three players, good or bad, that 1233 01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:52,560 Speaker 2: you think are just wildly miss priced right now? 1234 01:01:53,800 --> 01:01:57,760 Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of them. ADP's gotten 1235 01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:00,600 Speaker 1: very efficient. A lot of the players I thought were 1236 01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:04,360 Speaker 1: badly misspriced. The field has adjusted on. I pretty much 1237 01:02:04,400 --> 01:02:06,840 Speaker 1: covered a lot of the guys already. I talked about 1238 01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:11,320 Speaker 1: Ray Davis. Not only does he have contingent value. If 1239 01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:16,120 Speaker 1: Cook gets hurt, they're talking about giving Davis Cook more 1240 01:02:16,240 --> 01:02:21,160 Speaker 1: passing game work, and to me that means less Ty 1241 01:02:21,280 --> 01:02:24,320 Speaker 1: Johnson and more Ray Davis. He might have a bit 1242 01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:27,640 Speaker 1: of a floor. There's a couple guys I'm not on 1243 01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:32,800 Speaker 1: a make a Buka at cost. He had that fast start, 1244 01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:35,440 Speaker 1: he faded, Yes, he was hurt a little bit, but 1245 01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:38,320 Speaker 1: I think there's a much better chance that Godwin or 1246 01:02:39,160 --> 01:02:42,720 Speaker 1: Jalen McMillan ended up being you know, I think those 1247 01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:45,280 Speaker 1: three guys might all end up being pretty good together, 1248 01:02:46,080 --> 01:02:50,800 Speaker 1: and Ibuka goes really high. One I'm fading is DeVante Adams. 1249 01:02:52,160 --> 01:02:56,640 Speaker 1: I just think his ADP it's fallen, but he's really 1250 01:02:56,680 --> 01:02:59,600 Speaker 1: getting up there in age and he was propped up 1251 01:02:59,600 --> 01:03:02,560 Speaker 1: by eighteen touchdowns. 1252 01:03:01,960 --> 01:03:03,840 Speaker 3: Something like that crazy crazy touchdown. 1253 01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,640 Speaker 1: Not that he can't do it again, right, but again 1254 01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:12,480 Speaker 1: that you know, he's just not That's one guy that 1255 01:03:12,680 --> 01:03:15,680 Speaker 1: I still would have liked to have seen fall more. 1256 01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:18,760 Speaker 1: How about you, Do you have a couple guys, because 1257 01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:23,520 Speaker 1: I really am struggling to answer that question right now, 1258 01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:26,440 Speaker 1: there's guys I like a little, you know, there's just 1259 01:03:26,520 --> 01:03:30,000 Speaker 1: nobody I want to like plant a flag on. 1260 01:03:30,280 --> 01:03:33,200 Speaker 2: The hardest part of my draft guide this year was probably, 1261 01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:35,000 Speaker 2: I mean the research was a lot, but like just 1262 01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:37,120 Speaker 2: the players who avoid section was tough. 1263 01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:40,120 Speaker 3: I mean, it's the market seems pretty efficient right now. 1264 01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:43,200 Speaker 2: I went with the approach more so with my avoid 1265 01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:46,200 Speaker 2: section for the guide of like looking at specific platforms 1266 01:03:46,200 --> 01:03:48,200 Speaker 2: and saying this guy is just because it's a lot 1267 01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,040 Speaker 2: easier instead of looking at more consensus but strictly from 1268 01:03:51,080 --> 01:03:53,800 Speaker 2: like a best ball perspective. You know, quarterback is always 1269 01:03:53,840 --> 01:03:55,920 Speaker 2: a position where you can't really have a strong take 1270 01:03:55,960 --> 01:03:58,200 Speaker 2: because you're just simply stacking for the most part, right 1271 01:03:58,360 --> 01:04:00,800 Speaker 2: Like you know, in a manage le, I'm gonna probably 1272 01:04:00,840 --> 01:04:03,360 Speaker 2: not be as into a Joe Burrow, But if I 1273 01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:04,280 Speaker 2: have Jamar, Chaser T. 1274 01:04:04,440 --> 01:04:06,320 Speaker 3: Higgins and best ball, I'll still take Joe Burrow. 1275 01:04:06,440 --> 01:04:08,840 Speaker 2: You know, I'm a little bit afraid as you are, 1276 01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:13,120 Speaker 2: of Jonathan Taylor at his cost, just because of especially 1277 01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:15,840 Speaker 2: d K where you know you get it's it's full pprs. 1278 01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:17,720 Speaker 2: It's a little bit of a of a difference for 1279 01:04:17,760 --> 01:04:20,400 Speaker 2: a guy like JT, who's maxed out in the eleven percent 1280 01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:20,960 Speaker 2: target share. 1281 01:04:21,160 --> 01:04:25,120 Speaker 3: I've got a thought, Yeah, what's what's that with JT? 1282 01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:28,400 Speaker 1: You know, like in dfs in the old days Fan 1283 01:04:28,480 --> 01:04:32,440 Speaker 1: Duel and DraftKings, you know, some Sundays you play a 1284 01:04:32,440 --> 01:04:35,280 Speaker 1: lot of one guy on one site because he was 1285 01:04:35,320 --> 01:04:39,360 Speaker 1: priced differently than another. I'm having a hard time drafting 1286 01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,760 Speaker 1: some of the past catching backs, not that there's as 1287 01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:46,200 Speaker 1: many as there used to be on Dog, but they 1288 01:04:46,320 --> 01:04:50,040 Speaker 1: go basically in the same range on DraftKings, guys like 1289 01:04:50,120 --> 01:04:54,880 Speaker 1: Woody Marks, Dylan Sampson. I think is a tremendous country 1290 01:04:54,960 --> 01:04:55,520 Speaker 1: Draft Kings. 1291 01:04:55,600 --> 01:04:57,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got so. 1292 01:04:57,280 --> 01:05:01,720 Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that is one area where I think 1293 01:05:02,200 --> 01:05:04,840 Speaker 1: I'm seeing a lot of value is in those past 1294 01:05:04,920 --> 01:05:06,560 Speaker 1: catching backs on DraftKings. 1295 01:05:06,840 --> 01:05:07,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I agreed. 1296 01:05:08,040 --> 01:05:10,800 Speaker 2: I'll say what one player that I am very underweight on, 1297 01:05:10,880 --> 01:05:13,040 Speaker 2: and it's kind of contrarian because there's a lot of 1298 01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:15,160 Speaker 2: big names in the space that are very high on 1299 01:05:15,280 --> 01:05:18,600 Speaker 2: him as a sort of a middle round running back 1300 01:05:18,680 --> 01:05:21,400 Speaker 2: pick for for just getting some points is Tony Pollard. 1301 01:05:21,600 --> 01:05:24,400 Speaker 1: I should have mentioned him. I have. I think I 1302 01:05:24,440 --> 01:05:27,760 Speaker 1: have one percent Tony Pollard and last year I had 1303 01:05:27,760 --> 01:05:28,840 Speaker 1: twenty three percent. 1304 01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:31,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really really a hard bet for me when 1305 01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:34,760 Speaker 2: you look at how he performed last year specifically as 1306 01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:36,640 Speaker 2: a receiver. You know, as you archs, parole run was 1307 01:05:36,640 --> 01:05:38,720 Speaker 2: really poor. It's been poor now for multiple seasons. 1308 01:05:38,840 --> 01:05:40,920 Speaker 1: He's not a young man anymore either. 1309 01:05:40,760 --> 01:05:41,560 Speaker 3: Not a young man. 1310 01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,320 Speaker 2: He he he had pretty bad splits with Taj Spears 1311 01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,800 Speaker 2: last year, even if you're just looking at you know, 1312 01:05:46,960 --> 01:05:50,040 Speaker 2: usage right and as his route share when Taj Spears 1313 01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:50,480 Speaker 2: was healthy. 1314 01:05:50,840 --> 01:05:52,680 Speaker 3: And I don't think Nick Singleton. 1315 01:05:52,320 --> 01:05:54,960 Speaker 2: Is necessarily a zero all season long. You know, there's 1316 01:05:54,960 --> 01:05:57,680 Speaker 2: a chance that we see some singleton down the stretch. 1317 01:05:58,120 --> 01:06:00,919 Speaker 2: And again one of the past that you're talking about, 1318 01:06:00,960 --> 01:06:03,760 Speaker 2: you know, Dylan Samson laid on dk TA Jay Spears 1319 01:06:03,840 --> 01:06:06,400 Speaker 2: in the same boat where he could easily just be 1320 01:06:06,680 --> 01:06:10,080 Speaker 2: a pass catching you know, play from behind kind of back, 1321 01:06:10,160 --> 01:06:11,480 Speaker 2: which is how he's been deployed. 1322 01:06:11,480 --> 01:06:13,840 Speaker 3: And it's a new coaching staff and such, but not that. 1323 01:06:13,880 --> 01:06:17,080 Speaker 2: But Tennessee's offense could suck, realistic, you know, like that's 1324 01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:20,160 Speaker 2: also where things go south. So I found myself in 1325 01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:25,400 Speaker 2: that Pollard range going more with like Jalen Warren, Ramandre Stevenson, 1326 01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:26,280 Speaker 2: players that I have. 1327 01:06:26,400 --> 01:06:29,440 Speaker 1: The same, you know, just like and I really like 1328 01:06:29,560 --> 01:06:32,560 Speaker 1: Warren because he could be the guy that they're dropping 1329 01:06:32,600 --> 01:06:37,000 Speaker 1: off fifty sixty Rogers could be dropping off fifty sixty passes. 1330 01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:40,080 Speaker 1: And ultimately I think he's a better running back than 1331 01:06:40,520 --> 01:06:41,520 Speaker 1: Rico Dowdle too. 1332 01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:43,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree Jalen Warren. 1333 01:06:44,200 --> 01:06:47,080 Speaker 2: I think Jalen Warren and this is maybe a slightly 1334 01:06:47,080 --> 01:06:48,960 Speaker 2: hot take, but like, I think he's one of the 1335 01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:52,360 Speaker 2: most underrated like real life running backs in the NFL period, 1336 01:06:52,640 --> 01:06:54,560 Speaker 2: Like he's really good at all offense. 1337 01:06:54,640 --> 01:06:56,600 Speaker 1: It's a new staff, it's a new game. 1338 01:06:56,840 --> 01:06:58,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I know that people are attached to the 1339 01:06:58,600 --> 01:07:01,760 Speaker 2: McCarthy dawdle thing, and I get it, but I've leaned 1340 01:07:01,840 --> 01:07:03,800 Speaker 2: more Warren than Yeah. 1341 01:07:03,600 --> 01:07:08,720 Speaker 1: Everyone's attached to somebody until the other guy's better. Yeah, right, Like, ultimately, 1342 01:07:08,840 --> 01:07:13,320 Speaker 1: people underestimate how much coaches want to win and how 1343 01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:16,320 Speaker 1: much Aaron Rodgers is going to be, Like, get this 1344 01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:18,520 Speaker 1: guy off the field and give me Jalen Warren. 1345 01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:21,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, great pass protector, great pass catcher. I mean, there's 1346 01:07:21,640 --> 01:07:22,520 Speaker 2: a lot to like those. 1347 01:07:23,240 --> 01:07:24,000 Speaker 3: Yeah. 1348 01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:30,760 Speaker 1: I do think that is definitely a really, really good one. 1349 01:07:30,840 --> 01:07:33,480 Speaker 1: I like that, and Warren has become one of my 1350 01:07:33,560 --> 01:07:38,800 Speaker 1: favorite players, and I just think that in general. One 1351 01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:43,760 Speaker 1: of the underestimated things that I beat myself up for 1352 01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:46,400 Speaker 1: for not doing in the past that I've gotten better 1353 01:07:46,480 --> 01:07:50,040 Speaker 1: at is if I don't like powered and there's really 1354 01:07:50,080 --> 01:07:53,560 Speaker 1: only two guys. Singleton could do it, but he's coming 1355 01:07:53,600 --> 01:07:56,920 Speaker 1: off the foot. I'm up to about eighteen percent on 1356 01:07:57,000 --> 01:08:00,440 Speaker 1: Tajy Spears. I've always had a lot of Spears. I 1357 01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:02,880 Speaker 1: loved him coming out. I thought he had some really 1358 01:08:02,960 --> 01:08:09,000 Speaker 1: unique skills, and I think but from just a strategic standpoint, 1359 01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:12,440 Speaker 1: if you're really down on one guy, make sure you 1360 01:08:12,480 --> 01:08:17,200 Speaker 1: take the backup because then you're getting double pay if. 1361 01:08:17,080 --> 01:08:19,320 Speaker 3: You helped me. Yeah, that helped me so much last 1362 01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:20,479 Speaker 3: year with Cuba and Rico. 1363 01:08:20,600 --> 01:08:22,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, I was I was fading Tuba last year and 1364 01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:24,920 Speaker 2: and naturally just gravitated towards Rico. 1365 01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:28,240 Speaker 3: And that's awesome. It's true. Yeah, it's very true. 1366 01:08:28,360 --> 01:08:30,720 Speaker 2: All right, Before I let you go, I am borderline 1367 01:08:30,720 --> 01:08:32,599 Speaker 2: sweating and kind of see it if you're watching on. 1368 01:08:32,560 --> 01:08:35,400 Speaker 1: You my takes weren't hot enough. I'm sorry, Well that's no. 1369 01:08:35,439 --> 01:08:38,200 Speaker 2: I'm saying, you got to give me one fire bold 1370 01:08:38,320 --> 01:08:40,439 Speaker 2: take before I let you go, as I do with 1371 01:08:40,479 --> 01:08:42,519 Speaker 2: every guest, so so so throw it out there. 1372 01:08:42,680 --> 01:08:46,040 Speaker 1: I got two. One is that Brock Bauers leads the 1373 01:08:46,160 --> 01:08:47,440 Speaker 1: NFL in receptions. 1374 01:08:47,640 --> 01:08:48,519 Speaker 3: Okay, I like that. 1375 01:08:48,800 --> 01:08:51,559 Speaker 1: And the other one is that one of Jonah Coleman 1376 01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:57,040 Speaker 1: or Demon Clayborn workout roles to start the season. Yeah, 1377 01:08:57,120 --> 01:09:00,160 Speaker 1: and and and and and that one of them end 1378 01:09:00,320 --> 01:09:02,639 Speaker 1: up being the lead back going down the stretch. 1379 01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:04,880 Speaker 3: Can I can I tell people a little bit of 1380 01:09:04,880 --> 01:09:05,479 Speaker 3: a secret here. 1381 01:09:05,880 --> 01:09:09,320 Speaker 2: First off, I've loved this conversation because it literally just 1382 01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:11,080 Speaker 2: devolved into a conversation. 1383 01:09:11,280 --> 01:09:12,120 Speaker 3: You know, it wasn't you know? 1384 01:09:12,120 --> 01:09:14,600 Speaker 2: And this is what I think becoming bestball bro is 1385 01:09:14,680 --> 01:09:17,120 Speaker 2: all about and what I think people like to hear. 1386 01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:19,000 Speaker 3: But I'll share a little secret. 1387 01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:22,720 Speaker 2: Joonah Coleman right now is by far my highest exposed 1388 01:09:22,720 --> 01:09:23,519 Speaker 2: player on draft. 1389 01:09:23,640 --> 01:09:24,800 Speaker 1: What do you like about him? 1390 01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:28,960 Speaker 2: So I my stance on Coleman from a prospecting standpoint, 1391 01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:31,280 Speaker 2: and like with my model and going through all of that, 1392 01:09:31,960 --> 01:09:36,040 Speaker 2: was Denver looked at JK. Dobbins and said, hey, we 1393 01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:38,479 Speaker 2: like you, but we know that you're not durable. Right 1394 01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:41,280 Speaker 2: And and not only that, they use JK. Dobbins in 1395 01:09:41,280 --> 01:09:43,400 Speaker 2: a very one dimensional way last year. He was not 1396 01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:44,120 Speaker 2: a pass catcher, and. 1397 01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:46,000 Speaker 1: They use Harvey pretty much the same. 1398 01:09:46,280 --> 01:09:49,479 Speaker 2: Yeah, and Harvey Harvey was their pass catcher, and They're 1399 01:09:49,520 --> 01:09:52,320 Speaker 2: like the I have a stance that I think Dobbins 1400 01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:54,599 Speaker 2: is actually the player that I'm gonna that I'm least 1401 01:09:54,640 --> 01:09:56,720 Speaker 2: high on of the three by far, just because I 1402 01:09:56,760 --> 01:09:59,479 Speaker 2: don't see the ceiling outcome for him enough, just just 1403 01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:01,320 Speaker 2: giving the pas mass catching role that he has. 1404 01:10:01,560 --> 01:10:04,280 Speaker 3: But with with R. J. Harvey, you know, they certainly 1405 01:10:04,280 --> 01:10:05,360 Speaker 3: see saw player. 1406 01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:06,960 Speaker 2: You know, I thought as a prospect he was a 1407 01:10:06,960 --> 01:10:09,320 Speaker 2: little bit overvalued by the market. I didn't mind him 1408 01:10:09,600 --> 01:10:12,240 Speaker 2: at redraft last year. But from a dynasty standpoint, I 1409 01:10:12,280 --> 01:10:14,200 Speaker 2: wasn't like jumping for joy about. 1410 01:10:13,960 --> 01:10:14,599 Speaker 3: Harvey as I did. 1411 01:10:15,880 --> 01:10:18,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, with that being said, I think he did have 1412 01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:20,240 Speaker 2: some explosion. I do think that he showed off some 1413 01:10:20,360 --> 01:10:23,400 Speaker 2: pass catching chops last year, right, and so so in 1414 01:10:23,439 --> 01:10:26,559 Speaker 2: that environment, you know that he's getting some high Like 1415 01:10:26,560 --> 01:10:28,679 Speaker 2: if you look at his weighted opportunity last year, even 1416 01:10:28,680 --> 01:10:30,800 Speaker 2: with Dobbins, it wasn't as because I think a lot 1417 01:10:30,800 --> 01:10:33,920 Speaker 2: of times people understate the value of a target, especially 1418 01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:37,760 Speaker 2: in a full PPR platform. And anyways, they're looking at 1419 01:10:37,840 --> 01:10:40,599 Speaker 2: Jonah Coleman and they're saying, hey, we tried to rely 1420 01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:41,599 Speaker 2: on you down the stretch. 1421 01:10:42,080 --> 01:10:43,840 Speaker 3: What you weren't reliable enough. 1422 01:10:43,880 --> 01:10:45,760 Speaker 2: You know, one of the worst players in rushing yards 1423 01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:48,599 Speaker 2: over expected per attempt last year could play a pass 1424 01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:50,200 Speaker 2: catching role. I think they still are going to use 1425 01:10:50,240 --> 01:10:51,680 Speaker 2: him in the red zone and in that sort of 1426 01:10:51,720 --> 01:10:54,559 Speaker 2: like gadgety way that they did last year. But Dobbins, 1427 01:10:54,600 --> 01:10:58,080 Speaker 2: they said, hey, I don't know if you could really 1428 01:10:58,200 --> 01:11:00,880 Speaker 2: carry this workload for us for the entire season. So 1429 01:11:01,000 --> 01:11:04,360 Speaker 2: let's get one of the most boring all around backs 1430 01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:06,840 Speaker 2: in last in this year's draft, and Janah Coleman, who 1431 01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:08,040 Speaker 2: is not explosive. 1432 01:11:08,080 --> 01:11:10,080 Speaker 3: That's what R. J. Harvey brings to the table. But 1433 01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:11,519 Speaker 3: he can pass pro I. 1434 01:11:11,439 --> 01:11:14,639 Speaker 1: Think I think he's more explosive than people give him credit. 1435 01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:17,640 Speaker 2: There's there's a possibility, there's a definite possibility of that, 1436 01:11:17,840 --> 01:11:19,680 Speaker 2: but at the very but but I do think that 1437 01:11:19,760 --> 01:11:21,480 Speaker 2: Harvey is more explosive. 1438 01:11:21,560 --> 01:11:22,479 Speaker 1: There's no doubt. 1439 01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:24,759 Speaker 3: From a trade perspective, completely agree. 1440 01:11:24,760 --> 01:11:28,120 Speaker 1: I'm not a Harvey guy, but that's he is, right. 1441 01:11:28,640 --> 01:11:31,559 Speaker 2: So so my stance with Coleman is that he backs 1442 01:11:31,640 --> 01:11:35,160 Speaker 2: up both positions. He can play a pass catching role 1443 01:11:35,240 --> 01:11:37,439 Speaker 2: for them because he's he proved that in college and 1444 01:11:37,479 --> 01:11:40,120 Speaker 2: he was good at doing that in college as a 1445 01:11:40,120 --> 01:11:42,519 Speaker 2: three down guy. But he can be a bruiser too, 1446 01:11:42,520 --> 01:11:44,360 Speaker 2: and he might even get some goal line work as 1447 01:11:44,439 --> 01:11:47,040 Speaker 2: as the season goes on, especially if they're worried about 1448 01:11:47,200 --> 01:11:51,080 Speaker 2: Dobbins and injury, et cetera and seeing that short yardage stuff. 1449 01:11:51,120 --> 01:11:55,800 Speaker 2: So to me, Coleman is someone who should get some 1450 01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:58,240 Speaker 2: work in a three headed backfield. Like I think he's 1451 01:11:58,240 --> 01:12:02,639 Speaker 2: going to get something in that backfield. And you're buying fifteen, 1452 01:12:02,760 --> 01:12:05,840 Speaker 2: sixteenth round in DraftKings, you're buying points late. That's all 1453 01:12:05,840 --> 01:12:08,719 Speaker 2: it is to me. But He has also multiple outs 1454 01:12:08,760 --> 01:12:11,400 Speaker 2: for contingent upside right where where if one of those 1455 01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:13,400 Speaker 2: two get hurt, he's all of a sudden going to 1456 01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:16,280 Speaker 2: be a ten plus touch per game type player. 1457 01:12:16,840 --> 01:12:20,679 Speaker 1: This ties into one of my hot takes and back 1458 01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:25,000 Speaker 1: to your first question. Everyone is convinced this running back 1459 01:12:25,040 --> 01:12:30,040 Speaker 1: class is crap. Right, you've heard it, and overall it. 1460 01:12:29,960 --> 01:12:31,720 Speaker 3: Is Yeah, you're right, you heard it from me, it 1461 01:12:31,760 --> 01:12:32,040 Speaker 3: to us. 1462 01:12:32,280 --> 01:12:35,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, but that doesn't mean there aren't going to be 1463 01:12:35,120 --> 01:12:36,240 Speaker 1: two or three guys. 1464 01:12:36,600 --> 01:12:37,040 Speaker 3: I agree. 1465 01:12:37,080 --> 01:12:40,599 Speaker 1: Who you know? The NFL needs running backs every year, 1466 01:12:40,800 --> 01:12:44,799 Speaker 1: Guys get hurt, Guys age out. So to me, Jonah 1467 01:12:44,800 --> 01:12:48,360 Speaker 1: Coleman does a couple things. One, he is very good 1468 01:12:48,360 --> 01:12:51,360 Speaker 1: at cutbacks and when you have a big offensive line, 1469 01:12:51,400 --> 01:12:54,799 Speaker 1: that guy who can make that one cut get up field. 1470 01:12:55,240 --> 01:12:57,759 Speaker 1: I think Sean Payton's going to love that. Sean Payton's 1471 01:12:57,840 --> 01:13:01,320 Speaker 1: also going to love the fact that he can be 1472 01:13:01,439 --> 01:13:03,760 Speaker 1: on the field and you don't know whether it's going 1473 01:13:03,840 --> 01:13:08,040 Speaker 1: to be run or pass where the Dobbins, Yes, sometimes 1474 01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:10,479 Speaker 1: it's going to be a pass, but most of the 1475 01:13:11,120 --> 01:13:14,719 Speaker 1: But my point is Jonah Coleman can play both sides. 1476 01:13:14,800 --> 01:13:19,160 Speaker 1: He can pass, block, and the weird thing is he 1477 01:13:19,280 --> 01:13:22,599 Speaker 1: had more college receptions in each of his last two 1478 01:13:22,680 --> 01:13:26,920 Speaker 1: years than R. J. Harvey did. Yes, Okay, now that 1479 01:13:26,960 --> 01:13:29,320 Speaker 1: doesn't mean a heck of a lot. You know, college 1480 01:13:29,920 --> 01:13:34,759 Speaker 1: reception totals are completely unsticky. But when I first looked 1481 01:13:34,760 --> 01:13:37,320 Speaker 1: that up and saw it, I was like, there's something 1482 01:13:37,400 --> 01:13:38,120 Speaker 1: no one thinks. 1483 01:13:38,720 --> 01:13:41,320 Speaker 2: I mean, even when I look at my adjusted receiving 1484 01:13:41,520 --> 01:13:44,639 Speaker 2: numbers in the Zapp model, Jonah Coleman still looks better 1485 01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:46,559 Speaker 2: than what RJ. Harvey did from a receiving side. 1486 01:13:46,840 --> 01:13:49,920 Speaker 1: I'm glad to hear that because it's what I saw 1487 01:13:50,000 --> 01:13:56,439 Speaker 1: on tape. And I'm no expert, but I really Jonah 1488 01:13:56,439 --> 01:14:01,600 Speaker 1: Coleman and Emma Johnson have been my two highest stone guys. 1489 01:14:01,920 --> 01:14:06,599 Speaker 1: I just think Coleman has a clearer path to being 1490 01:14:06,600 --> 01:14:07,439 Speaker 1: the number one. 1491 01:14:07,680 --> 01:14:10,639 Speaker 3: It's just weird, Like I just didn't like JK. Dobbins. 1492 01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:12,360 Speaker 2: I I loved him last year. I drapted a ton 1493 01:14:12,400 --> 01:14:14,040 Speaker 2: of Dobbins. I had him as a as a target. 1494 01:14:14,080 --> 01:14:15,800 Speaker 2: I love that we're just ending this show on on 1495 01:14:15,840 --> 01:14:21,559 Speaker 2: some random Broncos backfield. The best ball Bros did Dobbins, 1496 01:14:21,560 --> 01:14:25,639 Speaker 2: though Dobbins did not have the ceiling and the the season. 1497 01:14:25,840 --> 01:14:27,880 Speaker 2: Even when you just look at his output that I 1498 01:14:27,920 --> 01:14:30,040 Speaker 2: think people believe he did. It's just that they got 1499 01:14:30,080 --> 01:14:31,840 Speaker 2: him at a good price and he was a value 1500 01:14:31,840 --> 01:14:32,640 Speaker 2: piece for them and. 1501 01:14:32,680 --> 01:14:35,160 Speaker 1: The other thing. They brought him back, but it wasn't 1502 01:14:35,200 --> 01:14:37,920 Speaker 1: like he was a priority bring back. He was out 1503 01:14:38,000 --> 01:14:40,639 Speaker 1: there for a couple of weeks before they brought him back. Yeah. 1504 01:14:40,840 --> 01:14:42,479 Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's coming off an injury that no one 1505 01:14:42,560 --> 01:14:44,120 Speaker 3: talks about. That's the anothers to it. 1506 01:14:44,439 --> 01:14:47,519 Speaker 2: Yeah, right right, So yeah, I mean I could easily, 1507 01:14:47,600 --> 01:14:51,080 Speaker 2: you know, we could look back at this and January. 1508 01:14:51,840 --> 01:14:54,800 Speaker 2: I didn't mind Claiborne. You know, he's undersize. That's that's 1509 01:14:54,840 --> 01:14:59,120 Speaker 2: the biggest issue. I think I've oddly this season turned 1510 01:14:59,200 --> 01:15:02,519 Speaker 2: into never been a Jordan Mason guy. I'm drafting Jordan 1511 01:15:02,520 --> 01:15:05,240 Speaker 2: Mason for the first time. I've been a fantasy career. 1512 01:15:05,439 --> 01:15:07,400 Speaker 1: Spike Week guys got me taking. 1513 01:15:07,360 --> 01:15:08,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I've been. 1514 01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,639 Speaker 2: I've been for the first time drafting Jordan Mason when 1515 01:15:11,640 --> 01:15:14,400 Speaker 2: I've you know, railed against him historically. 1516 01:15:14,040 --> 01:15:17,120 Speaker 1: I kind of dug him. But you know, I don't know, 1517 01:15:17,720 --> 01:15:20,479 Speaker 1: my memory must have been bad. I didn't think he 1518 01:15:20,600 --> 01:15:23,360 Speaker 1: was that good last year. But the numbers that Eric 1519 01:15:23,400 --> 01:15:28,120 Speaker 1: explosive Eric shared, Yeah, so I think you know, I 1520 01:15:28,160 --> 01:15:32,800 Speaker 1: think the Vikings offense, I think the Bucks offense are 1521 01:15:32,880 --> 01:15:39,120 Speaker 1: two really less expensive offenses that could be top five 1522 01:15:39,160 --> 01:15:40,160 Speaker 1: to seven offenses. 1523 01:15:40,360 --> 01:15:42,120 Speaker 3: Right, that could be good this year. Yeah, agreed? 1524 01:15:42,120 --> 01:15:43,760 Speaker 2: All right, Todd, let everyone know where they can find 1525 01:15:43,800 --> 01:15:46,640 Speaker 2: you take all that good stuff. This was a great conversation. 1526 01:15:46,240 --> 01:15:50,519 Speaker 1: I I have. I'm retired right now, I'm nowhere. I'm 1527 01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:54,760 Speaker 1: not podcasting on my own. I had a really good concept. 1528 01:15:54,760 --> 01:15:58,000 Speaker 1: No one wanted to hear about it, and I, you know, 1529 01:15:58,160 --> 01:16:01,479 Speaker 1: so I am just trying to prove everyone wrong by 1530 01:16:01,560 --> 01:16:04,320 Speaker 1: kicking everyone's ass and I love it. 1531 01:16:04,439 --> 01:16:06,519 Speaker 3: I love it. Good stuff. But you're on. 1532 01:16:06,680 --> 01:16:11,679 Speaker 1: Twitter though, at Best Ball NFL and pretty easy to remember. 1533 01:16:11,760 --> 01:16:14,479 Speaker 1: And I really enjoyed this, and I hope we fight 1534 01:16:14,560 --> 01:16:18,519 Speaker 1: each other out for the top prize on DraftKings this year. 1535 01:16:18,960 --> 01:16:19,360 Speaker 3: Agreed. 1536 01:16:19,439 --> 01:16:21,960 Speaker 2: Agreed, Yeah, you were on last year, had some really 1537 01:16:21,960 --> 01:16:24,400 Speaker 2: great feedback from people. They loved it, so I had 1538 01:16:24,400 --> 01:16:26,400 Speaker 2: to bring you back again this year. And I really 1539 01:16:26,520 --> 01:16:29,680 Speaker 2: enjoyed you know, your insight. I think you bring, you know, 1540 01:16:29,760 --> 01:16:32,559 Speaker 2: some uniqueness to the table from an analysis standpoint. So 1541 01:16:32,600 --> 01:16:35,240 Speaker 2: thank you for your time. Everyone else listening, thank you 1542 01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:37,400 Speaker 2: for your time as well. Hopefully you liked, you know, 1543 01:16:37,439 --> 01:16:39,360 Speaker 2: the little rambling that that Todd and I had at 1544 01:16:39,360 --> 01:16:39,639 Speaker 2: the end. 1545 01:16:39,680 --> 01:16:44,080 Speaker 1: Now I'm always very succinct. 1546 01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,160 Speaker 3: Yeah right right, But make sure you check out lateround 1547 01:16:47,240 --> 01:16:47,839 Speaker 3: dot com. 1548 01:16:48,320 --> 01:16:51,080 Speaker 2: The Draft Guide is out that's being updated weekly. Check 1549 01:16:51,120 --> 01:16:51,519 Speaker 2: that out. 1550 01:16:51,680 --> 01:16:52,439 Speaker 3: It is for sale. 1551 01:16:52,560 --> 01:16:56,080 Speaker 2: Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel and the podcast, 1552 01:16:56,120 --> 01:17:08,559 Speaker 2: but otherwise everyone, thanks for tuning in.