WEBVTT - Why The US Dollar Is Poised to Weaken Vs Euro 0:00:02.640 --> 0:00:05.320 Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 0:00:05.360 --> 0:00:07.680 along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:10.240 we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 0:00:10.280 --> 0:00:12.520 you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 0:00:12.560 --> 0:00:15.480 the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 0:00:15.520 --> 0:00:17.960 podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 0:00:17.960 --> 0:00:22.560 at Bloomberg dot com. Well, the Mexican pay so today 0:00:22.920 --> 0:00:26.439 is close to its weakest since December, as trade tensions 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:30.880 emerge from the US and there are questions, frankly about 0:00:30.920 --> 0:00:33.559 the health of the Mexican economy. Here joining us in 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:36.760 studios at Al Hasseani. He is senior interest rate and 0:00:36.840 --> 0:00:40.720 currency analyst for Columbia thread Needle Investments uh from overseas 0:00:40.800 --> 0:00:44.120 four and fifty nine billion dollars from Minneapolis. Although you 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:47.159 are here in our Bloomberg Atta Active Broker Studios, I 0:00:47.200 --> 0:00:49.600 want to talk about the Mexican pay so. How much 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:53.120 of this has to do with the economy itself. We 0:00:53.200 --> 0:00:56.040 did get last night Moodies and Fitch downgrading the nation 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.120 based on Pemax, it's stayed owned oil company, as well 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:01.880 as other economic headwins and how much is due to 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:07.240 potential ramifications from these US Mexico trade tensions. Yeah, it's 0:01:07.280 --> 0:01:09.640 a At the moment, I put more weight on the 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:13.400 former in terms of the weakening economy, the contingental liabilities 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.720 from from PEMM x um UM, and the fact that 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:19.760 you know, both fiscal and monetary space in in Mexico 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:23.000 is shrinking relatively quickly. Uh. You know that to me 0:01:23.360 --> 0:01:25.560 is kind of the key set of drivers for for 0:01:25.600 --> 0:01:28.800 a weaker pay. So in terms of trade tensions with 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.720 the US, we actually haven't started pricing that into aggressively. 0:01:31.760 --> 0:01:34.319 We haven't seen that in US risk assets. We still 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:37.920 haven't seen it fully priced into Mexican risk assets either. 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.040 So I think from from the perspective of upside downside 0:01:41.040 --> 0:01:43.360 for the Mexico, for the Mexican pay so, I think 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:46.720 there's still more downside to come through. So. UM. Earlier 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:48.800 today we had the married drag from the e C 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:52.000 b Uh, you know, give his commentary. What did you 0:01:52.040 --> 0:01:54.920 take away from it? Yeah? I thought, you know, this 0:01:55.040 --> 0:01:57.640 was for me, one of the more interesting and one 0:01:57.640 --> 0:02:00.840 of the more consequential meetings of the past two years. UM. 0:02:00.880 --> 0:02:03.560 A number of things came out. First, we cemented the 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.080 fact that the path for policy rates really is flat 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:09.920 to lower from here. Um. You know, this is an 0:02:09.960 --> 0:02:12.520 important change for them versus where they've been the course 0:02:12.520 --> 0:02:15.360 of the past, you know, EU plus Uh, there's been 0:02:15.400 --> 0:02:18.960 sort of an implicit upward bias to to the rate story, 0:02:19.000 --> 0:02:22.600 and I think that's now gone. The discussion about deeper 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.959 negative rates and additional queis now firmly on the table, um, 0:02:26.040 --> 0:02:28.000 And I think that's that's a new part of the 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.679 discussion as well. And um, you know, in terms of 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:35.000 the growth and the outlook, the growth on the inflation 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:38.000 mixing the outlook, you know, that continues to to weigh 0:02:38.000 --> 0:02:41.720 to the downsides. In terms of downside risks continue to intensify. 0:02:41.760 --> 0:02:44.080 So the e c B isn't it's in a tough spot. 0:02:44.160 --> 0:02:46.120 It doesn't have a lot of tools. But in terms 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:47.959 of the tools that does have, I think the willingness 0:02:48.000 --> 0:02:50.560 to use those tools to ease policy has increased. The 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.800 interesting thing to me, First of all, the ECB has 0:02:52.840 --> 0:02:54.400 pushed on a string at this point, right, I mean, 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:57.359 if they cut rates further into negative territory, what's it 0:02:57.400 --> 0:03:00.000 going to do, Because it's not exactly fostering loan growth 0:03:00.120 --> 0:03:03.040 to a tremendous degree among consumers and risk your businesses. 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:08.200 Uh So that's that's a big question, um. But it's 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:10.959 also a question from your perspective, from the currency perspective today, 0:03:10.960 --> 0:03:14.440 the euro strengthening versus the dollar, what gives that's not 0:03:14.520 --> 0:03:19.160 what you would expect? Sure, so, um, two things. Let 0:03:19.240 --> 0:03:20.800 me let me push back a little bit on the 0:03:20.960 --> 0:03:23.880 on the credit growth story. The credit growth story has 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.520 actually been one of the bright spots for for the 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:28.680 Eurozone and the ECB, and it's been one of the 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:32.760 success points in terms of the successive TOELTRA programs. The 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.560 fact that the European banking system, which is relatively weak, 0:03:35.600 --> 0:03:39.680 relatively under capitalized, has actually seen very solid loan growth. 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:43.440 And what the ECB doing right now is essentially risk management. 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:47.360 They're seeing these risks intensified to the downside, which essentially 0:03:47.400 --> 0:03:51.279 means they can add best maintain their current policy stands um. 0:03:51.320 --> 0:03:54.120 But more likely they will increase the amount of easing 0:03:54.440 --> 0:03:58.400 just to keep the current level of credit growth alive. Um. 0:03:58.520 --> 0:04:00.960 And one one interesting I think takeaway I think from 0:04:01.000 --> 0:04:03.600 the last you know, take four or five you know 0:04:03.640 --> 0:04:06.160 ECB discussions on the negative rate, is that they've come 0:04:06.200 --> 0:04:10.400 to the conclusion that inaggregate, the impact of negative interest 0:04:10.520 --> 0:04:14.920 rates on loan growth is negligible. They're definitely certain banks 0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:18.880 where negative rates are eating into profitability, but the fact 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:21.800 that they're providing these teltrual loans is actually cushions the 0:04:21.800 --> 0:04:25.000 banking system, and the banking overall continues to do quite well. 0:04:25.440 --> 0:04:29.160 So it given the rising trade tensions around the world 0:04:29.200 --> 0:04:33.960 relates China, Mexico, g maybe Indian so on, where do 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:40.400 you see value in emerging market currencies? So I one 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:43.360 of the more interesting I think turning points in the 0:04:43.360 --> 0:04:45.680 course of the past you know, month or so has 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:49.400 been the break and the dollar. It's it's very early days, 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.200 but it does look like the buffer we have for 0:04:53.279 --> 0:04:57.480 the dollar versus developed market currencies has shrunk significantly. We 0:04:57.560 --> 0:05:01.120 had essentially US growth that was more solid than European 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.200 and Asian growth, and we had US interest rates that 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:06.080 were significantly higher both in real and nominal terms. That 0:05:06.160 --> 0:05:09.640 buffer has shrunk very aggressively, with the Treasury rally and 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:13.160 with growth expectations for the US being being downgraded, and 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:16.240 we've seen that turn in the dollar versus the euro. 0:05:16.839 --> 0:05:19.320 And Lisa's question earlier, this is one of the reasons 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:22.039 why the euro continues to rally today despite despite the 0:05:22.080 --> 0:05:25.599 fact that these e CBS announced, you know, additional easing 0:05:25.600 --> 0:05:29.599 measures UH U s real rates continue to come down. UM. 0:05:29.680 --> 0:05:31.839 That weakness in the dollar, I think we'll start to 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.280 feed into e m f X. And the question is 0:05:34.400 --> 0:05:37.440 are there idiosocratic stories where you know, real yields are 0:05:37.560 --> 0:05:41.039 high enough UH to provide us with that buffer. A 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:43.520 couple of currencies rise to the top of my list. 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:46.279 I think, you know, Russia is a good spot UM, 0:05:46.480 --> 0:05:50.400 limited external vulnerabilities, very good fiscal picture UH. Indonesia is 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:52.800 another one. Well, there's there's been an improvement in the 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.880 growth story UH. And increasingly we're starting to take a 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.279 look at South Africa in part because the currency is 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.360 weakened quite significantly over the course of the past month. 0:06:02.000 --> 0:06:04.120 So from a value perspective, I think that that looks 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:07.600 quite attractive. The Turkish lira, the Turkish lera is is 0:06:07.680 --> 0:06:10.960 interesting because look on on on most valuation metrics, it's 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:15.159 creates exceptionally cheap UM. And the question is is the 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:17.960 current account or it's some of the external vulnerabilities shrinking 0:06:18.000 --> 0:06:21.120 fast enough to warrant the carry Are you gonna ever 0:06:21.160 --> 0:06:25.279 get will you ever get paid that carry? Um? And 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.880 you know increasingly it's not terrible. UM, I would say 0:06:28.920 --> 0:06:31.000 the picture there is becoming a little bit more positive. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:35.200 Real rates remain quite high. Obviously there's policy risk with 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:38.919 respect um to to the central banks next set of actions. 0:06:39.160 --> 0:06:41.159 Given an inflation that's coming down, there will be under 0:06:41.160 --> 0:06:43.919 pressure to cut rates, which will be negative for the currency. 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:46.680 Policy risk, by the way, is the understatement of the 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.960 year when it comes to Ara to Wan's regime. But 0:06:50.000 --> 0:06:52.919 go on, but look, I mean, look, we're we're in 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.520 in in in e M space. This this is what 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.360 you live with, and this is what you're getting paid for. UM. 0:06:59.200 --> 0:07:03.160 Policy risk in Turkey and in Argentina taken another place 0:07:03.680 --> 0:07:06.960 where you have high high high carry this one UM, 0:07:07.000 --> 0:07:10.600 I would say, of course Turkey and Argentina are at 0:07:10.640 --> 0:07:13.520 an extreme place in in in the m f X 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:17.520 spectrum high risk, exceptionally high carry uh. And it's not 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:19.480 very clear that you'll you'll make money over the next 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:21.280 twelve months in those places. So I'm gonna take the 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.520 risk and not clear that I'm going to make money. 0:07:23.560 --> 0:07:24.960 So I think I know where to kind of avoid 0:07:25.000 --> 0:07:27.520 a little bit. That's Hey, there's no there's no big 0:07:27.520 --> 0:07:30.320 return without big risk big So there you go, right, 0:07:30.360 --> 0:07:33.000 I mean yep, ed Alf HUSSAINI thanks so much for 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.160 joining us as a senior interest rate and currency analyst 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.960 for Clumbia thread Needle based in Minneapolish thread Needle is 0:07:40.200 --> 0:07:42.360 but joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactor Broker studio. 0:07:42.400 --> 0:07:45.280 Thank you so much. Just looking at the currencies here, um, 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:48.920 you know the your euro up slightly, the pound up today, 0:07:49.280 --> 0:07:52.280 but you mentioned the ruble. The rubles also up a 0:07:52.320 --> 0:07:57.880 little bit as well. Well. Back at the day when 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:00.640 I wanted to, I guess go to a Broadway show, 0:08:00.640 --> 0:08:02.680 I'd stand in line in Times Square at the t 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.200 K T S kind of thing and wondering why am 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:08.080 I doing this? This is so inconvenient. But I'm guessing 0:08:08.120 --> 0:08:10.240 there's a technology out there that can fix that, and 0:08:10.280 --> 0:08:12.960 in fact there is. We welcome Brian Fenty. Brian is 0:08:12.960 --> 0:08:15.920 a co founder and CEO of Today Ticks, based in 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:18.239 New York City, joining us here in a Bloomberg Interactive 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:21.440 Broker studio. Brian, thanks so much for joining us today Ticks. 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:25.000 Does that solve my problem? We try to solve your problem. Yes, 0:08:25.040 --> 0:08:28.400 we started about six years ago to take the t 0:08:28.480 --> 0:08:31.880 KTS booth and do all the heavy lifting of searching 0:08:31.920 --> 0:08:34.560 for discounts and putting it right in your in your 0:08:34.600 --> 0:08:37.079 hand through a mobile app. And of course now we're 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:39.520 on a website and we're in seventeen cities and doing 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:42.080 a lot more than just that. Um. But that's really 0:08:42.080 --> 0:08:44.800 what it is. It's best prices, best seats, last minute 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:48.720 on demand. How did you create this? Well, my partner 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:52.679 and I were not technologists, um, which is always a challenge. Actually, 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:55.520 you know, everybody always talks about the technical founder. Um. 0:08:55.600 --> 0:08:59.559 We were Broadway producers, we were private equity guys UM 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:01.320 and I worked for the New York Yankees for a 0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:04.120 couple of years, so we had very diverse experience, and 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:06.880 we knew that Broadway was a broken business in terms 0:09:06.880 --> 0:09:09.760 of getting millennials to the table, um, and so we 0:09:09.880 --> 0:09:13.199 sort of penciled out what was Uber doing an open 0:09:13.240 --> 0:09:16.480 table and Airbnb and these great mobile millennial companies what 0:09:16.520 --> 0:09:18.960 were they doing? And the answer was just great, simple 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:22.920 seamless technology, having everything at your fingertips and making sure 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:26.560 that it was a complete solution. So talking about talking 0:09:26.559 --> 0:09:28.280 about the business and Broadway, is it is? It a 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.000 growing business. Is a big business? Is this something that 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:34.319 people need a technical solution for? It's an unbelievable business. 0:09:34.360 --> 0:09:36.640 It's it's often overlooked. So you know, the first piece 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:39.400 of it is Broadway, meaning the the five block radius 0:09:39.400 --> 0:09:43.000 in New York, and that's, you know, a multibillion dollar industry. 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.680 It's grown more this year than it did in any 0:09:45.679 --> 0:09:50.439 other year. It's it's honestly, it's a resilient potter to 0:09:50.840 --> 0:09:53.800 Hamilton's and Deer of Enhanson. It's a great it's the 0:09:53.840 --> 0:09:56.240 golden age of Broadway right now. It's just an amazing, 0:09:56.240 --> 0:09:58.959 amazing time. Um. So, it's a huge industry. But you 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.079 know most people don't know is it's twice the size 0:10:01.080 --> 0:10:03.439 of the film business on a revenue basis in the US. 0:10:03.880 --> 0:10:06.760 Um So it's a big business. Um But it's hard 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:10.280 to access. It feels inaccessible to people, it feels expensive, 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:12.960 it feels hard to engage with. And so we're trying 0:10:13.000 --> 0:10:15.320 to break down those walls. And it's not just Broadway, right, 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:18.000 I mean, it's it's sort of theater. More broadly, are 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:22.040 you thinking of expanding into sports or into music or 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:25.199 other types of live ventures. So we started with theater 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:28.839 traditionally plays musicals. We've gone to performing arts now and 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:31.320 we've sort of expanded our definition as we go to markets. 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:34.040 So when we went to Chicago, comedy is everywhere. So 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:36.559 if you don't have the second city, you're nobody. And 0:10:36.600 --> 0:10:39.040 so we went to Chicago. We got comedy, We have opera, 0:10:39.040 --> 0:10:42.160 we have dance, improv immersive sleep, no more, you know, 0:10:42.240 --> 0:10:45.240 all of these different types of experiences. So really, as 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.800 I say to our team, we don't compete with ticketing companies. 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:51.120 We compete with a picture of Margarita's and Netflix. That is, 0:10:51.160 --> 0:10:56.120 you know, ultimately what we're trying to do. That's stiff competition. So, Brian, 0:10:56.400 --> 0:10:58.920 I guess thinking about Broadway per se that you know 0:10:58.960 --> 0:11:01.640 the five square blocks. You know, as my understanding is 0:11:01.640 --> 0:11:03.280 the kind of the theaters are kind of controlled by 0:11:03.320 --> 0:11:05.480 a handful of companies or a few companies. Did they 0:11:05.520 --> 0:11:07.640 welcome you, did they embrace you today? Where they concerned 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:08.960 about you? How do they how do you kind of 0:11:08.960 --> 0:11:11.480 work with a big theater company? They did not embrace 0:11:11.520 --> 0:11:13.560 this at the beginning. I'll tell you you know, this 0:11:13.640 --> 0:11:16.760 is a true story of disrupting. When we went and 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:18.760 met with the three theater owners, you know. The first 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:22.120 theater owners said, I owned the tickets, you don't have them, goodbye. 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:26.040 Door shut. The second theater owner that we talked to said, millennials, 0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:28.880 who needs them? They'll become adults someday. Shut the door. 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:31.360 The third theater owners said mobile, who needs that? No 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.840 one's going to spend money on it. And so we said, okay, guys, fine, 0:11:35.240 --> 0:11:38.040 if we go try to build this, will you support us? 0:11:38.320 --> 0:11:40.760 And they said, you know what, go try to build, Go, 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.240 try to build the technology. And so for the last 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.120 six years that's what we've been doing. And now five 0:11:45.160 --> 0:11:47.800 and a half million users later, Um, I think we've 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:49.920 proven that there really is a space for this. And 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:53.000 you did just raise seventy three million dollars from Great 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:56.680 Health Partners that which is a private equity company. What 0:11:56.720 --> 0:11:59.240 are you gonna do with the money? So I'd say 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:02.920 three may vehicles. One is talent talent. Talent talent, make 0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:05.760 sure that we have the smartest people, the best subject 0:12:05.760 --> 0:12:09.440 matter experts terms of tech are in terms of tech, 0:12:09.520 --> 0:12:13.720 product growth, marketing. So it's amazing is we have theaters 0:12:13.720 --> 0:12:15.520 that work with us across the country and not a 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:18.640 single salesperson on our team. And so that hopefully speaks 0:12:18.679 --> 0:12:22.040 to the brand that we've built among the venues, UM 0:12:22.080 --> 0:12:25.439 and our audiences. So talent is number one. UM. Number 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:27.680 two is content, making sure that we have the best 0:12:27.720 --> 0:12:30.640 content out there. UM. Millennials do hold you to a 0:12:30.760 --> 0:12:34.400 very high standard in terms of the types of content, programming, 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:37.199 exclusivity that you have. And then the third piece is 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.040 just data. Data, data, So making sure that we use 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:43.719 data to make the experience seamless for everyone, so that 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:45.840 if you open the app, it's different from when I 0:12:45.920 --> 0:12:47.600 open the app, and we can see the shows that 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.720 we want to see. So when I think of the 0:12:49.760 --> 0:12:53.040 ticketing experience, certainly in this country, really even globally, I 0:12:53.040 --> 0:12:55.880 think ticket master. So how do you guys compete against 0:12:55.880 --> 0:12:58.960 the ticket masters of the world. So what we learned 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:02.400 is that primary ticketers, because they have to do so 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:06.240 many different things, they're selling for sports, concerts, large venues, 0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.760 small venues, their technology isn't great. And and how do 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:12.680 we validate that it takes seven to nine minutes to 0:13:12.720 --> 0:13:15.720 buy a ticket on a major primary ticketing platform on 0:13:15.760 --> 0:13:18.920 today takes it's thirty seconds or less. UM. So really 0:13:18.920 --> 0:13:21.559 what we do is we kill you with convenience UM 0:13:21.600 --> 0:13:23.480 and we try to bring you through that funnel in 0:13:23.480 --> 0:13:25.679 a big way, and I think that's why we have 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.760 such high ratings. Are our net promoter scores about four 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:32.880 times the next highest primary ticketer. How do you make money? 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.880 Consumer fees? Um and And what I'll tell you is, 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:38.360 though we make it slow and steady, so we have 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.360 fixed fees for our consumers. We have the lowest fees 0:13:41.360 --> 0:13:44.040 in the industry. And our view is to build a 0:13:44.080 --> 0:13:47.960 community of as many theater goers, arts goers and quite frankly, 0:13:48.000 --> 0:13:50.400 anyone who wants to do something in a night, we're 0:13:50.480 --> 0:13:53.040 your customer, were your place to go, and uh we 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.160 grow from there. I know the Tony's are Sunday night, 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.960 I believe on CBS when Broadway comes together to celebrate 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.280 all the great work of the year, does that drive business? 0:14:03.280 --> 0:14:05.679 If a play wins Best Musical or Best Picture? How 0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.440 important is that? There's a few awards. So obviously it's 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:11.719 the moment of the year for for theater and it's 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:14.320 an amazing evening and this year James Cordon's hosting, so 0:14:14.360 --> 0:14:16.760 it'll be a blast um. But what I'll say is 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:19.120 there's one or two awards that really move the needle. 0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:21.960 And as you say it's best musical. Um, it's best 0:14:21.960 --> 0:14:24.400 revival of a musical, it's best play. Those are the 0:14:24.440 --> 0:14:27.880 three awards that can actually make what we call boffo, 0:14:28.080 --> 0:14:32.160 but you know, make the box office really hit. Thank 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:33.800 you so much for being with us. I have to 0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:37.480 say Today Ticks is something that I've just recently come 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:42.840 to learn about and I'm excited. Still there, no mobile, 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:46.720 no website, Still waiting in line Brian Fenti, co founder 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:49.960 and CEO of Today Ticks, joining us here in our 0:14:50.000 --> 0:14:54.600 Bloombergetter Active Brokers Studios disrupting the theater industry. Right now, 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:57.720 we're looking at a market still searching for direction, taking 0:14:57.720 --> 0:15:01.400 a breather after a series of risk off moves and 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:05.000 then fluctuating around coming up though, the focus really is 0:15:05.000 --> 0:15:07.960 going to be always on Washington, d C. Which is 0:15:07.960 --> 0:15:11.160 also the focus of markets right now at Bloomberg Politics, policy, 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.320 power and law. Amy Morris, what do you have on? 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:18.520 So she's gonna be talking about US and Mexico extending 0:15:18.560 --> 0:15:21.880 their talks, which, of course markets are expecting that there 0:15:21.880 --> 0:15:23.840 will be some kind of deal. Also, we got some 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.360 numbers with respect to the trade deficits showing as stalling 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:31.720 out of imports and exports. We're gonna be looking ahead 0:15:31.960 --> 0:15:35.800 to the jobs data as well. Meanwhile, we are looking 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:39.080 at a day finishing up. I mean, honestly, today, I'm 0:15:39.120 --> 0:15:41.920 I find it fascinating to me that we're taking a 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:45.800 breather and yet there still is complacency there. Iss. Deals 0:15:45.840 --> 0:15:48.000 are gonna get done. Deals are gonna get done. And 0:15:48.080 --> 0:15:51.240 Lisa brom WIT's along with Paul Sweeney, this is Bloomberg Markets. 0:15:54.960 --> 0:15:58.920 Tensions are rising between the US and Mexico. This certainly 0:15:59.040 --> 0:16:03.600 has hit particularly the automaker shares pretty hard, considering how 0:16:03.720 --> 0:16:07.520 much supply chain or sort of intra company activity goes 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.160 cross border. Joining us to talk about what the effect 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.360 is on small businesses is Hector Baretto. He's chairman of 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:18.760 the Latino Coalition, former US Small Business Administrator under George W. 0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:23.720 Bush through two thousand and six, joining us from Irvine, California. Hector, 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:26.160 I'm so glad that you're here with us. What are 0:16:26.200 --> 0:16:29.120 you hearing from the people who you represent small business 0:16:29.120 --> 0:16:33.480 owners about the potential impact of these additional tariffs on 0:16:33.600 --> 0:16:38.280 goods from Mexico. Well, they're very concerned, and as you know, uh, 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.720 probably of all businesses in the United states that do 0:16:41.880 --> 0:16:46.960 international trade are small businesses. They've seen their businesses grow 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.280 over the last six months or so and they don't 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:51.600 want to see that stop. So they really feel we're 0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:54.400 kind of at a tipping point right now. So hector, 0:16:54.400 --> 0:16:56.400 how about on the other side of the border, what 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.760 are you hearing from your contacts there about how the 0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:03.960 business community in Mexico views kind of these rising trade tensions. Well, 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:06.119 I was just down there last week. We we opened 0:17:06.160 --> 0:17:08.880 up an office for our organization, and two months ago 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:12.720 I met with the President of Mexico. They were cautiously optimistic. 0:17:12.800 --> 0:17:15.399 You know, they've kind of gotten used to some of 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:18.679 the rhetoric, but they're much more paying attention to the actions. 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:21.159 They know that, you know, they can't respond to every tweet, 0:17:21.200 --> 0:17:25.040 every press release, every news uh, you know, but they've 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:28.119 re sien some positive signs and obviously a lot of 0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.520 those leaders, business leaders and government leaders are in Washington 0:17:31.640 --> 0:17:34.399 today to talk to their counterparts and see if we 0:17:34.440 --> 0:17:36.480 can get to some kind of a compromise or solution 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:39.440 on this issue. So it's very interesting because we hear 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.800 about positive signs from people, and certainly the market doesn't 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:46.240 think that there's going to be some sort of increase 0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:49.280 in tariffs in Mexico that substantial at least, that's what 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:51.520 a lot of analysts and fund managers seemed to be 0:17:51.520 --> 0:17:54.680 saying this morning. And yet President Trump seems to be 0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:56.879 the one driving the bus here, and it's sort of 0:17:56.960 --> 0:17:59.800 unclear he's not backed away from his dance on tariff's right. Well, 0:18:00.160 --> 0:18:03.880 you know, uh, ironically, uh, in the last quarter Mexico, 0:18:04.000 --> 0:18:07.600 with our largest trading partner, we overtook China. So you know, 0:18:07.880 --> 0:18:10.720 they're starting to see some positive signs and again they 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:12.600 don't want to see that derailed. And at the end 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:14.880 of the day, you're right, President is going to decide, 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:17.320 but there's gonna be other voices are gonna be part 0:18:17.320 --> 0:18:20.000 of this equation. You're starting to see members of Congress, 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:22.080 both sides of the ail, that are very concerned about this. 0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:26.000 They're tracking this issue very very closely. And the last 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:27.919 thing we need to do is put a break on 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:30.440 this economy. The economy has been pretty good over the 0:18:30.520 --> 0:18:33.920 last you know, year, better than we've seen it over 0:18:34.040 --> 0:18:37.560 the preceding six seven years, and so uh, you know, 0:18:37.600 --> 0:18:40.880 this is the wrong time to actually, you know, derail 0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:44.720 the economy. And we're both affected. You know, days when 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.119 we could say, oh, they're gonna be hurt more than 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:48.959 we are. I don't see it that way. I think 0:18:49.000 --> 0:18:52.440 we're very interdependent and if one side gets hurt, the 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:53.960 other side is gonna get hurt. And at the end 0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.120 of the day, you know that those costs are gonna 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:58.760 be passed on to consumers. So you know, there's some 0:18:58.800 --> 0:19:02.320 big stakes at hand right now. So the hector, the 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:04.719 businesses that you represent, what are they how are they 0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:08.760 thinking about the Trump administration's you know, use of tariffs 0:19:08.760 --> 0:19:12.800 to kind of curb immigration. Well it can. Well, they 0:19:12.800 --> 0:19:15.760 don't like the fact that these two issues are being conjoined. 0:19:15.880 --> 0:19:18.159 I was in the White House yesterday. I'm actually in 0:19:18.240 --> 0:19:21.800 d C. And they're doing everything they could to say, look, 0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:24.119 there are two separate issues. We're going to continue on 0:19:24.160 --> 0:19:26.600 the trade track. We want U s m C A pass, 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:29.720 but we've got to deal with this immigration crisis. And 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.080 it is a crisis. You can understand why there's so 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:35.240 much frustration in the administration. They have not been able 0:19:35.280 --> 0:19:38.280 to turn this thing around. For months. People were saying, 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:39.879 is Oh, it's not a big deal, it's going to 0:19:40.000 --> 0:19:42.360 go away. It's just seasonal. We haven't seen that. We've 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:45.000 seen spikes at the border that we've never seen before. 0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:48.399 So there is a mutual responsibility on both sides of 0:19:48.400 --> 0:19:51.360 the border. Mexico can do a better job of enforcing 0:19:51.400 --> 0:19:54.240 their southern border. We need to work with Mexico as 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.040 our number one trading partner and work on things like 0:19:57.440 --> 0:19:59.400 you know, we used to have something called the Medida 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:01.920 initiative where we would work with Mexico, and we've done 0:20:01.920 --> 0:20:03.639 that with other countries. We need to go back to 0:20:03.720 --> 0:20:07.439 those kinds of cooperative efforts. I guess that. You know, 0:20:07.480 --> 0:20:11.000 it's interesting because if you are in Washington, what is 0:20:11.040 --> 0:20:15.040 sort of the consensus among the people you're speaking with 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.919 who are within the administration as to the path of 0:20:18.960 --> 0:20:20.960 these negotiations, Because it seems like this kind of came 0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:22.520 I don't want to say out of the blue, but 0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.600 kind of out of the blue. Well, the the administration 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:27.479 would say, for the people to say it's coming out 0:20:27.480 --> 0:20:29.439 of the blue, they haven't been listening, because you know, 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:32.760 it hasn't been that long ago. The president was very upset. 0:20:32.840 --> 0:20:34.960