1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:22,036 Speaker 1: Pushkin from Pushkin Industries. This is Deep Background, the show 2 00:00:22,076 --> 00:00:25,316 Speaker 1: where we explore the stories behind the stories in the news. 3 00:00:25,796 --> 00:00:28,956 Speaker 1: I'm Noah Feldman. This episode is going to be a 4 00:00:28,956 --> 00:00:31,676 Speaker 1: little different from what we usually do here on Deep 5 00:00:31,676 --> 00:00:35,636 Speaker 1: Background because it's going to involve a switchero. It's going 6 00:00:35,676 --> 00:00:39,676 Speaker 1: to be a conversation between me and Jacob Weisberg. Jacob 7 00:00:39,756 --> 00:00:42,116 Speaker 1: is the head of Pushkin Industries, which is the podcast 8 00:00:42,156 --> 00:00:45,436 Speaker 1: production company that makes this show. He's also the person 9 00:00:45,476 --> 00:00:48,036 Speaker 1: who had the idea for Deep Background in the first 10 00:00:48,036 --> 00:00:50,436 Speaker 1: place and called me and said, hey, Noah, maybe you 11 00:00:50,436 --> 00:00:54,036 Speaker 1: want to try a podcast. And the reason that I 12 00:00:54,156 --> 00:00:56,996 Speaker 1: asked Jacob to come on the show and take my 13 00:00:57,116 --> 00:00:59,796 Speaker 1: job is that the conversation we're going to have is 14 00:00:59,836 --> 00:01:02,676 Speaker 1: about a new book that I've wrote that's being published 15 00:01:02,716 --> 00:01:07,516 Speaker 1: today called The Arab Winter, A Tragedy. For those of 16 00:01:07,556 --> 00:01:09,716 Speaker 1: you who've been writing in to say that it's time 17 00:01:09,756 --> 00:01:13,076 Speaker 1: for us to add some non COVID topics alongside our 18 00:01:13,116 --> 00:01:16,316 Speaker 1: COVID coverage, this one's for you, and I promised that 19 00:01:16,356 --> 00:01:19,556 Speaker 1: we'll return to COVID coverage in our very next episode 20 00:01:19,796 --> 00:01:25,716 Speaker 1: later this week. Jacob, thank you so much for coming 21 00:01:25,756 --> 00:01:29,836 Speaker 1: to Deep Background. Well, Noah, thanks for inviting me to 22 00:01:29,876 --> 00:01:33,396 Speaker 1: play you on your show for an episode. It's a 23 00:01:33,476 --> 00:01:35,876 Speaker 1: tall order. And I also want to thank you for 24 00:01:36,196 --> 00:01:39,956 Speaker 1: prompting me to read your new book, Or Winter, which 25 00:01:40,116 --> 00:01:42,356 Speaker 1: I really enjoyed. I mean, it's a very short book, 26 00:01:42,396 --> 00:01:47,316 Speaker 1: which made it easy, but it's so packed with ideas 27 00:01:47,356 --> 00:01:52,156 Speaker 1: about what happened in the Arab Spring and challenging I 28 00:01:52,196 --> 00:01:55,196 Speaker 1: guess the conventional wisdom that the Arab Spring was a 29 00:01:55,236 --> 00:02:00,156 Speaker 1: complete disaster. Let's go back to the beginning. What was 30 00:02:00,236 --> 00:02:03,036 Speaker 1: the Arab Spring? Where did it happen, Why did it happen? 31 00:02:03,156 --> 00:02:06,356 Speaker 1: What was it? The Arab Spring was a kind of 32 00:02:07,196 --> 00:02:11,516 Speaker 1: single episode that then read into a region wide contagion. 33 00:02:11,996 --> 00:02:14,276 Speaker 1: But the contagion was, at least in the first instance, 34 00:02:14,316 --> 00:02:18,396 Speaker 1: a really good one. It started in Tunisia, which is 35 00:02:18,436 --> 00:02:22,196 Speaker 1: a tiny little country barely ten million people, and which 36 00:02:22,276 --> 00:02:24,316 Speaker 1: is not usually thought of as hugely influential in the 37 00:02:24,356 --> 00:02:26,756 Speaker 1: Middle East. In fact, most of the time, even most 38 00:02:26,756 --> 00:02:29,036 Speaker 1: people in the Arab world never think about Tunisia at all. 39 00:02:29,876 --> 00:02:33,596 Speaker 1: And what set it off initially was that a poor 40 00:02:33,876 --> 00:02:37,716 Speaker 1: frustrated fruit seller who had been subject to abuse from 41 00:02:37,836 --> 00:02:42,316 Speaker 1: government officials and whose money supply was running out killed 42 00:02:42,396 --> 00:02:45,516 Speaker 1: himself in a very dramatic way. He set himself on fires, 43 00:02:45,516 --> 00:02:49,556 Speaker 1: a horrible tragedy, and in response to the sense that 44 00:02:49,636 --> 00:02:54,156 Speaker 1: he had quite literally ignited a sense of protest. Hundreds 45 00:02:54,156 --> 00:02:57,916 Speaker 1: of thousands of Tunisians, ordinary Tunisians, from all different social classes, 46 00:02:57,916 --> 00:03:01,436 Speaker 1: all different backgrounds, started going into the streets and protesting 47 00:03:02,076 --> 00:03:06,236 Speaker 1: their governments, and they developed a couple of key slogans. 48 00:03:07,036 --> 00:03:10,396 Speaker 1: The most famous of one was the people want the 49 00:03:10,556 --> 00:03:14,076 Speaker 1: overthrow of the regime. And they chanted it, and they 50 00:03:14,156 --> 00:03:18,556 Speaker 1: chanted it, and remarkably and incredibly, within a couple of weeks, 51 00:03:19,076 --> 00:03:22,116 Speaker 1: the regime gave way and the guy who had been 52 00:03:22,116 --> 00:03:25,116 Speaker 1: the dictator of the country for almost twenty years left 53 00:03:25,156 --> 00:03:29,996 Speaker 1: the country, and suddenly people were realizing that they had 54 00:03:29,996 --> 00:03:33,596 Speaker 1: the opportunity to remake their political system almost entirely. So 55 00:03:33,636 --> 00:03:36,316 Speaker 1: that's how it started. But then if that be the 56 00:03:36,316 --> 00:03:38,036 Speaker 1: only story would have been an incredible story. It would 57 00:03:38,036 --> 00:03:40,596 Speaker 1: have been a huge success story of one tiny little country. 58 00:03:40,996 --> 00:03:43,796 Speaker 1: But what happened is that it was contagious, and so 59 00:03:43,836 --> 00:03:47,476 Speaker 1: what you got were what started as copycut demonstrations in 60 00:03:47,796 --> 00:03:51,996 Speaker 1: much bigger and more consequential countries, most famously Egypt, and 61 00:03:52,036 --> 00:03:55,516 Speaker 1: then in Egypt, the same story played out again, at 62 00:03:55,556 --> 00:03:58,956 Speaker 1: least initially, and people were chanting the same chance, and 63 00:03:58,996 --> 00:04:01,716 Speaker 1: they were watching each other on Arabic speaking satellite TV, 64 00:04:01,836 --> 00:04:03,236 Speaker 1: so they knew what the other people were saying. In 65 00:04:03,276 --> 00:04:06,196 Speaker 1: the other countries, each of these protests had some local flavor. 66 00:04:06,236 --> 00:04:08,436 Speaker 1: They were substrating the name of their own dictator, but 67 00:04:08,516 --> 00:04:12,276 Speaker 1: basically the script was repeated, and in Egypt it seemed 68 00:04:12,276 --> 00:04:15,476 Speaker 1: to work too. The dictator left there too, and then 69 00:04:15,716 --> 00:04:17,476 Speaker 1: it was tried in other countries as well, and so 70 00:04:17,476 --> 00:04:21,916 Speaker 1: it was a kind of sweeping contagion of attempts at 71 00:04:21,916 --> 00:04:24,796 Speaker 1: political self determination in a bunch of Arabic speaking countries. 72 00:04:25,516 --> 00:04:27,676 Speaker 1: So let's talk about Egypt a little bit as the 73 00:04:27,716 --> 00:04:31,156 Speaker 1: place where the Arab spring seemed to turn dramatically into 74 00:04:31,196 --> 00:04:33,836 Speaker 1: what you call the Arab winter. You know, first you 75 00:04:33,916 --> 00:04:37,116 Speaker 1: had this moment in Tarier Square where protesters were out 76 00:04:37,156 --> 00:04:42,316 Speaker 1: demanding the end of the autocratic regime, democratic replacement, and 77 00:04:42,356 --> 00:04:46,156 Speaker 1: they got it, they got the more Sea government elected. 78 00:04:46,476 --> 00:04:50,236 Speaker 1: And then people turned out in Terior Square again and 79 00:04:50,356 --> 00:04:53,796 Speaker 1: demanded if it or the end of democracy? Why did 80 00:04:53,836 --> 00:04:56,556 Speaker 1: that happen? And what do you make of it? These 81 00:04:56,556 --> 00:04:58,956 Speaker 1: two events, which I called for short in the book 82 00:04:58,996 --> 00:05:05,396 Speaker 1: Tarier one in Tarier two were bookends to a very 83 00:05:05,516 --> 00:05:09,996 Speaker 1: very intense year and three quarters in which which a 84 00:05:10,036 --> 00:05:12,636 Speaker 1: lot of things happened, some of which seemed to follow 85 00:05:12,676 --> 00:05:16,396 Speaker 1: the correct way that we in democratic countries imagine things 86 00:05:16,396 --> 00:05:18,756 Speaker 1: should go when a dictator comes down, and some of 87 00:05:18,796 --> 00:05:22,116 Speaker 1: which went wildly the other way. So the first thing 88 00:05:22,276 --> 00:05:25,356 Speaker 1: is that it took some time, but after the army 89 00:05:25,476 --> 00:05:29,276 Speaker 1: had ordered the old dictator hosting Mubarak to leave, there 90 00:05:29,316 --> 00:05:34,116 Speaker 1: eventually were big, pretty free public elections, and they were imaginations. 91 00:05:34,156 --> 00:05:35,956 Speaker 1: Along the way. There was a question of who would 92 00:05:35,956 --> 00:05:37,756 Speaker 1: be allowed to run for office, and could old regime 93 00:05:37,796 --> 00:05:39,996 Speaker 1: people run for office, and what about members of the 94 00:05:40,076 --> 00:05:44,556 Speaker 1: Muslim Brotherhood, which was the largest social slash political organization 95 00:05:44,676 --> 00:05:47,276 Speaker 1: in the country. But ultimately there was an election. It 96 00:05:47,276 --> 00:05:50,436 Speaker 1: was pretty free, and what happened is that the Brotherhood 97 00:05:51,036 --> 00:05:56,556 Speaker 1: candidate won the presidency narrowly. The Brotherhood won a plurality, 98 00:05:56,676 --> 00:06:00,076 Speaker 1: not a majority of but a plurality in parliamentary elections, 99 00:06:00,996 --> 00:06:05,076 Speaker 1: and the Brotherhood won the chance to craft a new constitution. 100 00:06:05,796 --> 00:06:09,916 Speaker 1: And that panicked a lot of people who were of 101 00:06:10,516 --> 00:06:13,156 Speaker 1: what used to be called one person, one vote, one time, 102 00:06:13,796 --> 00:06:16,916 Speaker 1: people who said, look if the Muslim Brotherhood writes the constitution, 103 00:06:17,236 --> 00:06:19,876 Speaker 1: if they become the people who are the dominant political party, 104 00:06:20,476 --> 00:06:23,236 Speaker 1: they're going to abolish democracy. Now, to be sure, that 105 00:06:23,276 --> 00:06:25,276 Speaker 1: wasn't their claim. They said we're going to be democratic, 106 00:06:25,316 --> 00:06:26,596 Speaker 1: We're going to write a constitution. But that was the 107 00:06:26,636 --> 00:06:30,116 Speaker 1: word that a lot of people had, and slowly but surely, 108 00:06:30,716 --> 00:06:34,836 Speaker 1: various things happened that left those folks more and more 109 00:06:34,876 --> 00:06:38,436 Speaker 1: concerned and worried. But it was a very complicated dant. 110 00:06:38,476 --> 00:06:41,476 Speaker 1: So you just give you the most prominent example. The 111 00:06:41,476 --> 00:06:44,396 Speaker 1: Constitutional Court of Egypt, which was made up at the 112 00:06:44,436 --> 00:06:49,636 Speaker 1: time still of people from the old regime, disbanded the legislature. 113 00:06:49,916 --> 00:06:52,516 Speaker 1: It said the elections had been illegitimate, and it disbanded 114 00:06:52,516 --> 00:06:56,676 Speaker 1: the legislature. That left Morsey, who was the newly elected president, 115 00:06:56,716 --> 00:06:58,876 Speaker 1: in a position where he couldn't govern through the legislature. 116 00:06:59,476 --> 00:07:01,796 Speaker 1: And so then his critics started saying, he's an autocrat, 117 00:07:01,836 --> 00:07:03,796 Speaker 1: he's an autocratic, he's governing autocratically. Well, of course he 118 00:07:03,836 --> 00:07:08,276 Speaker 1: was governing autocratically because there was no legislature, and there 119 00:07:08,356 --> 00:07:10,036 Speaker 1: was a deep word they were going to do the 120 00:07:10,076 --> 00:07:12,956 Speaker 1: same thing with a constitutional assembly and disbanded that too, 121 00:07:13,596 --> 00:07:17,436 Speaker 1: and so the Muslim Brotherhood rammed through a constitution very 122 00:07:17,556 --> 00:07:21,876 Speaker 1: very fast, without listening to dissenters, and Morsey himself, afraid 123 00:07:21,916 --> 00:07:25,676 Speaker 1: that the Constitutional Court would block that, issued an edict 124 00:07:25,716 --> 00:07:28,436 Speaker 1: where he said, nobody can put me out of office. 125 00:07:28,436 --> 00:07:31,116 Speaker 1: The Constitutional Court can't put me out of office until 126 00:07:31,556 --> 00:07:33,476 Speaker 1: the constitution is in place. Now, in practice, that was 127 00:07:33,476 --> 00:07:35,236 Speaker 1: only going to be a week or two. But then 128 00:07:35,316 --> 00:07:37,596 Speaker 1: his opponent said, look now he's made himself a dictator. 129 00:07:38,116 --> 00:07:40,716 Speaker 1: And ultimately what that led to is that opponents of 130 00:07:40,756 --> 00:07:43,756 Speaker 1: the Brotherhood and opponents of the regime came back into 131 00:07:43,756 --> 00:07:47,996 Speaker 1: the streets and they replicated what they had done in 132 00:07:48,156 --> 00:07:54,076 Speaker 1: January and February and March of twenty eleven, and they demanded, 133 00:07:54,396 --> 00:07:56,516 Speaker 1: with the same slogans and the same chance, with a 134 00:07:56,676 --> 00:07:59,716 Speaker 1: comparable number of people in the square, that the army 135 00:07:59,876 --> 00:08:04,756 Speaker 1: get rid of the elected democratic president. And after some delay, 136 00:08:04,796 --> 00:08:07,396 Speaker 1: the army did. And so what happened was that the 137 00:08:07,396 --> 00:08:09,356 Speaker 1: first time they were getting rid of a dictator, the 138 00:08:09,356 --> 00:08:11,036 Speaker 1: second time they were getting rid of the guy who 139 00:08:11,036 --> 00:08:14,396 Speaker 1: had been elected president, and that led to the army 140 00:08:14,436 --> 00:08:17,036 Speaker 1: taking over again, and that was the end of democracy 141 00:08:17,036 --> 00:08:19,836 Speaker 1: in Egypt. So that's the real conundrum Noah, and you 142 00:08:20,196 --> 00:08:23,676 Speaker 1: talk about this at the level of democratic theory and 143 00:08:23,716 --> 00:08:27,476 Speaker 1: political philosophy. But can there be a democratic decision to 144 00:08:27,556 --> 00:08:33,756 Speaker 1: eliminate democracy? And if so, why is a democratic decision 145 00:08:33,756 --> 00:08:36,316 Speaker 1: to do that valid? I mean, by making such a decision, 146 00:08:36,356 --> 00:08:40,236 Speaker 1: as it were democratically, you're invalidating the idea of the 147 00:08:40,276 --> 00:08:44,076 Speaker 1: democratic decision should be the ones account. I agree with you. 148 00:08:44,116 --> 00:08:47,036 Speaker 1: It's a super hard problem and I really struggled with it, 149 00:08:47,076 --> 00:08:49,316 Speaker 1: and I try to show that struggle in the book 150 00:08:49,316 --> 00:08:51,636 Speaker 1: and try to lay out both sides of the possible view. 151 00:08:51,676 --> 00:08:53,316 Speaker 1: I mean, you could take the view I don't take this, 152 00:08:53,436 --> 00:08:55,996 Speaker 1: but you could take the view that when the people 153 00:08:56,076 --> 00:09:01,196 Speaker 1: with a capital P get together and demand democracy, that's legitimate. 154 00:09:01,396 --> 00:09:04,516 Speaker 1: That's democratic because they're asking for democracy. But when the 155 00:09:04,596 --> 00:09:07,276 Speaker 1: same people get together and say we don't want democracy anymore, 156 00:09:07,316 --> 00:09:10,076 Speaker 1: we want to get rid of a democratic leader, it's undemocratic. 157 00:09:10,556 --> 00:09:12,756 Speaker 1: And in the end, I don't buy that. And the 158 00:09:12,796 --> 00:09:16,076 Speaker 1: reason I don't buy it is that what makes the 159 00:09:16,196 --> 00:09:19,156 Speaker 1: choice of democracy in their first place legitimate isn't that 160 00:09:19,196 --> 00:09:22,756 Speaker 1: there's some fair process or fair procedure for democracy. I mean, 161 00:09:22,796 --> 00:09:24,516 Speaker 1: what it really amounts to is a lot of people 162 00:09:24,556 --> 00:09:26,916 Speaker 1: going to the public square and saying get rid of 163 00:09:26,916 --> 00:09:29,196 Speaker 1: the dictator. And in Egypt, they didn't even say give 164 00:09:29,236 --> 00:09:31,236 Speaker 1: us democracy. They just said get rid of the dictator. 165 00:09:31,676 --> 00:09:34,796 Speaker 1: And then they held elections. And so what made that 166 00:09:34,916 --> 00:09:38,396 Speaker 1: legitimate was that, in some sense, the Egyptian people as 167 00:09:38,396 --> 00:09:41,756 Speaker 1: a collective were saying what they wanted, and they weren't 168 00:09:41,796 --> 00:09:44,156 Speaker 1: doing a through a procedure, and you couldn't count them 169 00:09:44,196 --> 00:09:45,596 Speaker 1: all up and figure out if they were a majority 170 00:09:45,596 --> 00:09:47,396 Speaker 1: of the public, which of course they weren't. It was 171 00:09:47,476 --> 00:09:50,236 Speaker 1: legitimate because it was an expression of genuine popular sentiment. 172 00:09:50,956 --> 00:09:53,116 Speaker 1: And then when the same number of people or maybe 173 00:09:53,156 --> 00:09:56,476 Speaker 1: even more do the same thing and call for the 174 00:09:56,556 --> 00:09:59,716 Speaker 1: changing of the democratic system, they're not operating within the 175 00:09:59,796 --> 00:10:02,236 Speaker 1: ordinary rules of democracy. But you have to believe. I 176 00:10:02,316 --> 00:10:05,036 Speaker 1: think that what they're doing is just as legitimate as 177 00:10:05,076 --> 00:10:08,956 Speaker 1: when people called to get rid of the dictator. Otherwise 178 00:10:09,196 --> 00:10:11,556 Speaker 1: the first one isn't legitimate. I think whatever rules you 179 00:10:11,596 --> 00:10:13,716 Speaker 1: apply to figure out whether the demand to get rid 180 00:10:13,756 --> 00:10:16,156 Speaker 1: of a dictator is legitimate are going to give you 181 00:10:16,196 --> 00:10:19,316 Speaker 1: the same result when people do the same thing to 182 00:10:19,356 --> 00:10:21,276 Speaker 1: say they want to get rid of a government which 183 00:10:21,356 --> 00:10:24,236 Speaker 1: was democratically elected. So you know, I think The upshot 184 00:10:24,276 --> 00:10:26,516 Speaker 1: of that is that we forget that democracy is something 185 00:10:26,516 --> 00:10:29,356 Speaker 1: that the people choose, and therefore democracy is something that 186 00:10:29,356 --> 00:10:32,196 Speaker 1: people could choose not to choose. It's not inevitable, it's 187 00:10:32,236 --> 00:10:34,836 Speaker 1: not necessary. It's not the only system of government that's 188 00:10:34,876 --> 00:10:39,236 Speaker 1: fair or legitimate. But in advance of a legitimate constitutional 189 00:10:39,276 --> 00:10:42,716 Speaker 1: system which lets people have votes with equal weight, you 190 00:10:42,836 --> 00:10:45,516 Speaker 1: do have this problem of being back to you the 191 00:10:45,596 --> 00:10:49,996 Speaker 1: general will. I mean, that's who constitutes the people and 192 00:10:50,636 --> 00:10:56,316 Speaker 1: what determines which people and whose views predominate. We didn't 193 00:10:56,356 --> 00:10:59,396 Speaker 1: count the people into rear square, and why, for that matter, 194 00:10:59,436 --> 00:11:02,836 Speaker 1: should only people in Cairo and the nation's capital who 195 00:11:02,916 --> 00:11:05,756 Speaker 1: have the ability to turn out in the biggest public 196 00:11:05,836 --> 00:11:09,316 Speaker 1: square have a say in determining what the general will is. 197 00:11:10,436 --> 00:11:13,916 Speaker 1: I totally agree, and you know, I try to use 198 00:11:13,956 --> 00:11:16,836 Speaker 1: a thought experiment to get people to ask themselves what 199 00:11:16,876 --> 00:11:19,676 Speaker 1: their own intuitions are about this. What I say is, 200 00:11:20,156 --> 00:11:21,836 Speaker 1: think of what it felt like to you if you 201 00:11:21,876 --> 00:11:25,916 Speaker 1: were watching when you saw people in dictatorships going out 202 00:11:25,956 --> 00:11:29,116 Speaker 1: into the streets in hundreds of thousands and saying, you know, 203 00:11:29,236 --> 00:11:31,956 Speaker 1: leave or we want the end of the regime, or 204 00:11:32,396 --> 00:11:35,236 Speaker 1: you know, we demand social justice. What happened in Ukraine, 205 00:11:35,316 --> 00:11:37,676 Speaker 1: or what happened in so many countries in Eastern Europe 206 00:11:37,716 --> 00:11:41,636 Speaker 1: when authoritarian governments were brought down by public protests. Exactly 207 00:11:41,716 --> 00:11:43,716 Speaker 1: in all of these places. You can ask yourself, what 208 00:11:43,756 --> 00:11:46,196 Speaker 1: do you feel when you see on TV thousands or 209 00:11:46,276 --> 00:11:48,996 Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of people making this demand. And if 210 00:11:49,036 --> 00:11:51,756 Speaker 1: you feel, and I think most people do, feel wow, 211 00:11:52,276 --> 00:11:56,356 Speaker 1: you know, that's great, that's real. Those people are taking 212 00:11:56,436 --> 00:11:59,196 Speaker 1: charge and the world should listen to them, then you 213 00:11:59,276 --> 00:12:02,156 Speaker 1: share in some way the intuition I think that there 214 00:12:02,276 --> 00:12:05,756 Speaker 1: is such a thing as a people which is capable 215 00:12:05,836 --> 00:12:08,796 Speaker 1: of speaking for itself, even though in none of those 216 00:12:08,836 --> 00:12:12,516 Speaker 1: cases is there a formal vote, is there a census, 217 00:12:12,556 --> 00:12:15,316 Speaker 1: Are there districts with ballots? The whole apparatus that we 218 00:12:15,356 --> 00:12:18,396 Speaker 1: associate with the democracy that's up and running only exists 219 00:12:18,396 --> 00:12:20,556 Speaker 1: when a democracy is up and running. You know, at 220 00:12:20,596 --> 00:12:23,636 Speaker 1: that initial moment of demand, there's something about the core 221 00:12:23,756 --> 00:12:27,476 Speaker 1: collective political action of the people that's motivating people, and 222 00:12:27,476 --> 00:12:29,916 Speaker 1: it's motivating us to think that that is legitimate and 223 00:12:29,916 --> 00:12:32,836 Speaker 1: that is democratic. And that is hard because we're so 224 00:12:32,916 --> 00:12:35,756 Speaker 1: used in thinking of democracy in terms of vote counts 225 00:12:35,756 --> 00:12:38,956 Speaker 1: and districts, but democracy is more than that. It's bigger 226 00:12:38,956 --> 00:12:41,636 Speaker 1: than that, and it's also much more vulnerable than just 227 00:12:41,916 --> 00:12:44,156 Speaker 1: the kind of democracy that plays by the rules. Democracy 228 00:12:44,196 --> 00:12:47,116 Speaker 1: doesn't always play by the rules. We'll be back in 229 00:12:47,156 --> 00:12:58,356 Speaker 1: just a moment. The book seems to be very much 230 00:12:58,396 --> 00:13:02,316 Speaker 1: an attempt to salvage something positive from the Arab Spring, 231 00:13:02,676 --> 00:13:06,316 Speaker 1: and you focus a lot on this idea of these 232 00:13:06,356 --> 00:13:11,356 Speaker 1: Arab countries taking political response ability for themselves the first 233 00:13:11,356 --> 00:13:16,236 Speaker 1: time after centuries of imperialism and then these autocracies that 234 00:13:16,276 --> 00:13:19,276 Speaker 1: gave the people no say You say, basically, you know, 235 00:13:19,356 --> 00:13:23,316 Speaker 1: at least they're taking responsibility for their own destinies. And 236 00:13:23,356 --> 00:13:26,516 Speaker 1: the really hopeful example you talk about is Tunisia, where 237 00:13:26,516 --> 00:13:30,756 Speaker 1: you mentioned the Arab Spring began. You were involved in 238 00:13:30,796 --> 00:13:34,996 Speaker 1: the effort at constitution writing there, giving some advice to 239 00:13:35,116 --> 00:13:38,756 Speaker 1: the Constitutional Commission. Talk a little bit about both your 240 00:13:38,796 --> 00:13:43,156 Speaker 1: experience and why Tunisia remains the one real bright spot 241 00:13:43,276 --> 00:13:45,476 Speaker 1: to come out of the Arab Spring. So, yeah, I 242 00:13:45,516 --> 00:13:48,076 Speaker 1: was very lucky. I was in Tuonesia's six times during 243 00:13:48,116 --> 00:13:52,436 Speaker 1: the process of their constitutional negotiations, and partly because it 244 00:13:52,476 --> 00:13:55,276 Speaker 1: was a small country with a relatively small political elite, 245 00:13:55,596 --> 00:13:58,876 Speaker 1: partly because I kept on coming back. What began as 246 00:13:58,916 --> 00:14:01,556 Speaker 1: an opportunity just to show up and learn turned into 247 00:14:01,556 --> 00:14:04,076 Speaker 1: an opportunity to collaborate a little bit with people who 248 00:14:04,076 --> 00:14:07,716 Speaker 1: are actually drafting the constitution. And you know, I and 249 00:14:07,836 --> 00:14:10,756 Speaker 1: my research associate who went with me made I don't know, 250 00:14:10,796 --> 00:14:13,316 Speaker 1: I think a couple of hundred suggestions, all of them 251 00:14:13,396 --> 00:14:16,596 Speaker 1: at the request of people on the Constituent Assembly, and 252 00:14:16,716 --> 00:14:19,436 Speaker 1: a whole bunch of them got incorporated into the constitution. 253 00:14:19,476 --> 00:14:21,036 Speaker 1: I have no idea if they were incorporated because we 254 00:14:21,076 --> 00:14:23,436 Speaker 1: recommended them or because they were just good ideas that 255 00:14:23,476 --> 00:14:25,676 Speaker 1: everybody would have thought of. Any Way, you can never 256 00:14:25,756 --> 00:14:27,756 Speaker 1: quite measure those things, and that's probably a good thing 257 00:14:27,916 --> 00:14:30,836 Speaker 1: into their constitution. But yeah, I was very fortunate to 258 00:14:30,876 --> 00:14:33,716 Speaker 1: be sitting there in the drafting rooms, in the Delicates 259 00:14:33,716 --> 00:14:36,676 Speaker 1: dining rooms, and I got to observe up close and 260 00:14:36,796 --> 00:14:42,276 Speaker 1: personal why their negotiation process worked when constitution negotiations didn't 261 00:14:42,316 --> 00:14:46,116 Speaker 1: work in other countries. And the reason was that everybody 262 00:14:46,116 --> 00:14:48,476 Speaker 1: in the room knew, no matter whether they liked each 263 00:14:48,516 --> 00:14:50,156 Speaker 1: other or hated each other, and no matter how much 264 00:14:50,156 --> 00:14:52,316 Speaker 1: they distrusted each other, and they did distrust each other, 265 00:14:52,916 --> 00:14:55,316 Speaker 1: that no one was coming to save them, No one 266 00:14:55,356 --> 00:14:57,836 Speaker 1: really cared enough about Tunisia to intervene in a big 267 00:14:57,876 --> 00:15:01,316 Speaker 1: way in their constitutional process. The US wasn't coming to 268 00:15:01,356 --> 00:15:04,116 Speaker 1: save them, you know, the European countries were not coming 269 00:15:04,156 --> 00:15:06,076 Speaker 1: to save them. They were on their own. The other 270 00:15:06,116 --> 00:15:08,396 Speaker 1: Arab countries weren't coming to save them, and so they 271 00:15:08,396 --> 00:15:12,436 Speaker 1: had to compromise, and they compromised like crazy. All sides 272 00:15:12,476 --> 00:15:17,916 Speaker 1: made compromises that their own political core supporters thought were 273 00:15:18,076 --> 00:15:21,796 Speaker 1: terrible compromises, and they made them anyway. And I think 274 00:15:21,876 --> 00:15:25,476 Speaker 1: that is really what got them ultimately through, and it's 275 00:15:25,476 --> 00:15:27,916 Speaker 1: why they developed a consensus that enabled them to draft 276 00:15:28,076 --> 00:15:31,556 Speaker 1: and successfully ratify a constitution. And just to add one 277 00:15:31,556 --> 00:15:35,156 Speaker 1: more point to that, the thing that they realized is 278 00:15:35,156 --> 00:15:39,556 Speaker 1: that a constitutional negotiation is by definition all about giving 279 00:15:39,596 --> 00:15:43,676 Speaker 1: the other side more than it deserves. If you think, well, 280 00:15:43,676 --> 00:15:45,956 Speaker 1: we've won a plurality or a majority, and so we're 281 00:15:45,996 --> 00:15:48,516 Speaker 1: not going to give you what you want, your constitution 282 00:15:48,556 --> 00:15:51,596 Speaker 1: will fail because if enough people are unhappy with a 283 00:15:51,596 --> 00:15:55,916 Speaker 1: constitutional draft, then they'll go into the streets, they'll protest, 284 00:15:56,236 --> 00:15:59,116 Speaker 1: they might even use violence, and then the whole constitutional 285 00:15:59,196 --> 00:16:02,356 Speaker 1: deal will fall through, sort of like what happened ultimately 286 00:16:02,476 --> 00:16:05,756 Speaker 1: in Iraq, where Sunnies were cut out of the constitutional process. 287 00:16:05,796 --> 00:16:08,316 Speaker 1: They partly cut themselves out and then they just used violence, 288 00:16:08,316 --> 00:16:11,796 Speaker 1: and that deeply under caught the constitution. So you have 289 00:16:11,876 --> 00:16:16,916 Speaker 1: this one North African Arab country that has a functioning, effective, 290 00:16:17,276 --> 00:16:23,636 Speaker 1: seemingly sustainable constitutional democratic system. Why aren't its neighbors and 291 00:16:23,716 --> 00:16:26,236 Speaker 1: the other Arab countries looking at it and saying, yeah, 292 00:16:26,356 --> 00:16:29,836 Speaker 1: that's what we wanted, We want what they have. People 293 00:16:29,916 --> 00:16:33,316 Speaker 1: in some of those countries did say that initially, as 294 00:16:33,356 --> 00:16:36,436 Speaker 1: in Egypt, but then Egypt wasn't able to produce the 295 00:16:36,556 --> 00:16:40,956 Speaker 1: kind of compromise and consensus that Tunisia did. So the 296 00:16:40,996 --> 00:16:46,156 Speaker 1: elected government, the Muslim Brotherhood backed government, did not successfully 297 00:16:46,156 --> 00:16:50,236 Speaker 1: compromise with secularists on the other side. They made some 298 00:16:50,276 --> 00:16:53,956 Speaker 1: initial gestures in that direction, but they were paranoid, not 299 00:16:53,996 --> 00:16:56,316 Speaker 1: without good reason, but they were paranoid that if they 300 00:16:56,396 --> 00:16:58,836 Speaker 1: let in too many liberals they would undercut themselves. They 301 00:16:58,876 --> 00:17:00,596 Speaker 1: were paranoid that if they let in too many of 302 00:17:00,636 --> 00:17:03,876 Speaker 1: the old regime they would undercut themselves. So they actually 303 00:17:03,876 --> 00:17:06,876 Speaker 1: tried to do it all without compromise, and that failed. 304 00:17:06,956 --> 00:17:09,796 Speaker 1: They just couldn't get sufficient buy in. And in a 305 00:17:09,876 --> 00:17:13,876 Speaker 1: much more extreme way, in Syria, What happened there is 306 00:17:13,876 --> 00:17:16,156 Speaker 1: that we never even got to the moment of the 307 00:17:16,156 --> 00:17:18,156 Speaker 1: formation of a new government because we never got the 308 00:17:18,196 --> 00:17:22,716 Speaker 1: ultimate collapse of basharl Assad's regime because Asad fought back 309 00:17:22,716 --> 00:17:26,276 Speaker 1: with violence, and instead of the protests which began pretty 310 00:17:26,316 --> 00:17:31,116 Speaker 1: peacefully leading to regime change, they actually created circumstances where 311 00:17:31,156 --> 00:17:34,436 Speaker 1: the government started a civil war. And once that started, 312 00:17:34,756 --> 00:17:37,556 Speaker 1: people in lots of countries around the Arabic speaking world 313 00:17:37,596 --> 00:17:40,276 Speaker 1: started saying, whoa wait a minute, the structure of our 314 00:17:40,276 --> 00:17:43,596 Speaker 1: countries may not be capable of surviving regime change. And 315 00:17:43,716 --> 00:17:46,516 Speaker 1: once people start thinking that and looking at worst case 316 00:17:46,516 --> 00:17:49,716 Speaker 1: scenarios like civil war such as we also have in 317 00:17:49,756 --> 00:17:54,116 Speaker 1: Libya and such as exists now in Yemen, both in 318 00:17:54,156 --> 00:17:57,356 Speaker 1: the aftermath of the Arab Spring, that starts making people 319 00:17:57,716 --> 00:18:00,316 Speaker 1: really think long and hard about whether it's worth it 320 00:18:00,556 --> 00:18:02,716 Speaker 1: to try to stay in the streets and remove the regime. 321 00:18:03,436 --> 00:18:06,836 Speaker 1: At the other end of the spectrum from Tunisia's liberal 322 00:18:06,996 --> 00:18:13,436 Speaker 1: democratic state, you have of Isis's medieval theocratic state, and 323 00:18:13,556 --> 00:18:16,836 Speaker 1: you say that that too was a product of the 324 00:18:16,916 --> 00:18:22,036 Speaker 1: Arab Spring. In a strange way, why was Isis part 325 00:18:22,076 --> 00:18:25,996 Speaker 1: of what came out of the original protests in Tunisia 326 00:18:26,156 --> 00:18:28,956 Speaker 1: in two ways. The Arab Spring first of all, created 327 00:18:28,996 --> 00:18:32,916 Speaker 1: the conditions for the civil war in Syria, which created 328 00:18:32,956 --> 00:18:36,756 Speaker 1: a political vacuum, a power vacuum, which allowed isis to 329 00:18:36,796 --> 00:18:40,036 Speaker 1: emerge and call itself a caliphate. So that was the 330 00:18:40,076 --> 00:18:42,756 Speaker 1: first immediate way that the Arab Springs set the conditions 331 00:18:43,076 --> 00:18:45,796 Speaker 1: for the emergence of the Islamic State. But the more 332 00:18:45,836 --> 00:18:51,636 Speaker 1: profound similarity between the Islamic State and the peaceful uprisings 333 00:18:52,516 --> 00:18:55,476 Speaker 1: is that the people who founded the Islamic State were 334 00:18:55,556 --> 00:19:00,396 Speaker 1: aspiring to create a new form of political order which 335 00:19:00,476 --> 00:19:05,356 Speaker 1: they themselves would control, where they would be sovereign, and 336 00:19:05,596 --> 00:19:08,436 Speaker 1: in which they could effectuate a system of government that 337 00:19:08,516 --> 00:19:13,476 Speaker 1: they believe. Now, what's sad, horrifying, and indeed tragic, and 338 00:19:13,516 --> 00:19:14,996 Speaker 1: this is one of the reasons I call the book 339 00:19:15,276 --> 00:19:18,316 Speaker 1: The Artwinter a tragedy, is that the form of government 340 00:19:18,356 --> 00:19:23,756 Speaker 1: that the Islamic State supporters wanted was not utopian, although 341 00:19:23,756 --> 00:19:25,916 Speaker 1: they thought it was utopian, but it was dystopian. It 342 00:19:25,996 --> 00:19:29,476 Speaker 1: was the opposite. You know. It involved murder on a 343 00:19:29,596 --> 00:19:33,796 Speaker 1: huge scale, It involved rape on a huge scale, forced 344 00:19:33,796 --> 00:19:38,796 Speaker 1: sexual slavery, and for the people who were engaged in 345 00:19:38,836 --> 00:19:44,876 Speaker 1: this movement, those were fulfillments and authentic manifestations they believed 346 00:19:45,476 --> 00:19:50,196 Speaker 1: of Islamic tradition going back to the Middle Ages, which 347 00:19:50,236 --> 00:19:52,556 Speaker 1: did exist on the books. If you read the classical 348 00:19:52,556 --> 00:19:54,876 Speaker 1: Islamic legal sources from the Middle Ages, you do have 349 00:19:55,316 --> 00:19:57,516 Speaker 1: tech saying, you know, you can do these things in wartime, 350 00:19:58,156 --> 00:20:01,076 Speaker 1: but they were not practiced on a comparable scale to this, 351 00:20:01,236 --> 00:20:04,156 Speaker 1: certainly in the Middle Ages. And also nobody's really tried 352 00:20:04,196 --> 00:20:06,396 Speaker 1: in the Muslim world to govern in anything like this 353 00:20:06,436 --> 00:20:10,516 Speaker 1: way in hundreds of years. So they were doing something 354 00:20:10,516 --> 00:20:13,316 Speaker 1: that was a throwback, self conscious throwback, and it was 355 00:20:13,396 --> 00:20:16,476 Speaker 1: worse than it ever had in fact been in history 356 00:20:16,516 --> 00:20:21,316 Speaker 1: almost certainly. So it was horrifying and deeply deserved the 357 00:20:21,356 --> 00:20:24,196 Speaker 1: condemnation that we've all given to it. And the world 358 00:20:24,236 --> 00:20:26,996 Speaker 1: had to take action, slowly but surely to go and 359 00:20:27,036 --> 00:20:29,356 Speaker 1: get rid of the Islamic state, and I'm super glad 360 00:20:29,396 --> 00:20:31,716 Speaker 1: that they did get At the same time, we shouldn't 361 00:20:31,756 --> 00:20:34,876 Speaker 1: forget that the folks who were doing this were engaged 362 00:20:34,876 --> 00:20:37,196 Speaker 1: in the process of trying to self determine. They were 363 00:20:37,196 --> 00:20:38,516 Speaker 1: just doing it in a way that turned out to 364 00:20:38,556 --> 00:20:41,636 Speaker 1: be pretty evil. I mean, I was mystified as a 365 00:20:41,676 --> 00:20:45,356 Speaker 1: lot of people were how this barbaric sort of cult, 366 00:20:45,436 --> 00:20:51,156 Speaker 1: as it seemed, was attracting volunteers from all over the world, 367 00:20:51,756 --> 00:20:56,916 Speaker 1: including from Western countries. In the thousands. You talk about 368 00:20:56,956 --> 00:21:01,476 Speaker 1: it as a utopian revolutionary movement, but why was it 369 00:21:01,716 --> 00:21:05,436 Speaker 1: that young people, including young women in many cases, went 370 00:21:05,676 --> 00:21:08,996 Speaker 1: to join the Islamic State completely of their own volition. 371 00:21:09,876 --> 00:21:12,676 Speaker 1: I really think it was the opportunity that they perceived 372 00:21:12,716 --> 00:21:15,676 Speaker 1: to build something new, to build a new society, to 373 00:21:15,676 --> 00:21:18,476 Speaker 1: build a utopian society on what they saw as a 374 00:21:18,516 --> 00:21:22,676 Speaker 1: classically authentic Islamic model. In that sense, the Islamic State 375 00:21:22,756 --> 00:21:25,876 Speaker 1: was really different from Alkaida. People did come from around 376 00:21:25,916 --> 00:21:29,156 Speaker 1: the world to join Alkaida in much smaller numbers, but 377 00:21:29,236 --> 00:21:31,596 Speaker 1: to join Alkaieda basically meant you were going to fight 378 00:21:31,796 --> 00:21:35,276 Speaker 1: and probably die in the jihad. You weren't building something 379 00:21:35,356 --> 00:21:37,436 Speaker 1: new for the most part, you were just trying to 380 00:21:37,676 --> 00:21:41,076 Speaker 1: break something, namely what is imagined to be the occupation 381 00:21:41,116 --> 00:21:45,556 Speaker 1: of Muslim lands by non Muslim invaders. In contrast, once 382 00:21:45,716 --> 00:21:48,716 Speaker 1: the Islamic State was a caliphate, that it had territory, 383 00:21:48,756 --> 00:21:51,516 Speaker 1: that it was building a society that was a chance 384 00:21:51,516 --> 00:21:53,596 Speaker 1: for people to say much the way that young people 385 00:21:53,596 --> 00:21:55,836 Speaker 1: from around the world wanted to go to Cuba after 386 00:21:55,876 --> 00:21:59,596 Speaker 1: the Cuban Revolution, or some people from around the world 387 00:21:59,716 --> 00:22:03,476 Speaker 1: wanted to go to Russia after the Bolshevik Revolution. You say, well, 388 00:22:03,756 --> 00:22:05,876 Speaker 1: here's a new world being created, and I want to 389 00:22:05,916 --> 00:22:07,636 Speaker 1: be a part of that. And so they didn't come 390 00:22:07,716 --> 00:22:10,756 Speaker 1: for the spectacular violence, but they also were willing to 391 00:22:10,756 --> 00:22:14,396 Speaker 1: tolerate and participate in even that kind of violence, which 392 00:22:14,436 --> 00:22:18,756 Speaker 1: also happens after other revolutions that partake of this kind 393 00:22:18,756 --> 00:22:23,396 Speaker 1: of millennialist religious, revivalist, reformist idea. And they don't have 394 00:22:23,396 --> 00:22:25,196 Speaker 1: to be religious. That could just be communism, which is 395 00:22:25,236 --> 00:22:28,876 Speaker 1: itself a kind of religion. In a certain respect, people 396 00:22:28,956 --> 00:22:35,076 Speaker 1: will do unbelievably radical things that are horrifying in circumstances 397 00:22:35,076 --> 00:22:38,196 Speaker 1: like those when they feel that they're in a revolutionary moment, 398 00:22:38,276 --> 00:22:41,636 Speaker 1: all bets are off. The end times in some way 399 00:22:41,916 --> 00:22:43,236 Speaker 1: are there. And again it doesn't have to be end 400 00:22:43,236 --> 00:22:44,796 Speaker 1: times in a religious sense. It could be that we're 401 00:22:44,836 --> 00:22:47,836 Speaker 1: just creating a new society. And that's why a lot 402 00:22:47,876 --> 00:22:50,876 Speaker 1: of revolutions end in brutal violence or entail a lot 403 00:22:50,876 --> 00:22:54,476 Speaker 1: of brutal violence in their aftermath. And otherwise normal people 404 00:22:54,516 --> 00:22:57,956 Speaker 1: will do abnormal things under those conditions. So your book 405 00:22:57,956 --> 00:23:02,276 Speaker 1: with written pre pandemic, but obviously now all of these 406 00:23:02,316 --> 00:23:08,596 Speaker 1: countries are having their varying experiences with COVID nineteen pandemic 407 00:23:08,676 --> 00:23:12,196 Speaker 1: can either bond people to their government if a government 408 00:23:12,276 --> 00:23:14,996 Speaker 1: seems to respond to it well, or can alienate people 409 00:23:15,076 --> 00:23:17,836 Speaker 1: from their government if it handles it badly. What are 410 00:23:17,836 --> 00:23:20,796 Speaker 1: we seeing in the countries you write about in the book, 411 00:23:20,796 --> 00:23:24,436 Speaker 1: in Egypt and Syria and Tunisia, is there another Arab 412 00:23:24,516 --> 00:23:29,716 Speaker 1: spring that could come out of the pandemic? So far, 413 00:23:30,316 --> 00:23:34,276 Speaker 1: and knock on wood, COVID hasn't had the kind of 414 00:23:34,276 --> 00:23:39,116 Speaker 1: transformative social impact in the former Arab Spring countries that 415 00:23:39,236 --> 00:23:42,356 Speaker 1: it's had in Europe or in the United States or 416 00:23:42,396 --> 00:23:45,476 Speaker 1: even in some Asian countries. And it's still too soon 417 00:23:45,516 --> 00:23:47,756 Speaker 1: to know whether that's because there aren't that many cases 418 00:23:48,636 --> 00:23:52,116 Speaker 1: or whether because the case it just aren't being recorded 419 00:23:52,236 --> 00:23:57,636 Speaker 1: or acknowledged or recognized. So there's great worry, especially in 420 00:23:57,676 --> 00:24:02,156 Speaker 1: Tunisia about whether the rapid economic decline that's going to 421 00:24:02,236 --> 00:24:05,316 Speaker 1: hit Tunisia very hard. Tunisia is very dependent on tourism 422 00:24:06,316 --> 00:24:10,956 Speaker 1: is going to destabilize the social fabric even further. And 423 00:24:11,156 --> 00:24:14,036 Speaker 1: it remains to be seen whether autocracy is like those 424 00:24:14,076 --> 00:24:19,316 Speaker 1: in Egypt are robust enough to withstand social pressure around that. 425 00:24:19,316 --> 00:24:21,516 Speaker 1: Although I think they probably are. I think Egyptians have 426 00:24:21,556 --> 00:24:23,956 Speaker 1: really learned the lesson that they can't get out and 427 00:24:24,036 --> 00:24:27,516 Speaker 1: do it again. That said, you know, when I was 428 00:24:27,556 --> 00:24:30,516 Speaker 1: just getting the book into press, there were two events 429 00:24:30,756 --> 00:24:33,636 Speaker 1: in the Arabic speaking world that were weirdly like after 430 00:24:33,716 --> 00:24:37,036 Speaker 1: images of the Arab Spring. There was a kind of 431 00:24:37,076 --> 00:24:42,116 Speaker 1: Arab Spring like uprising in Algeria, which is extit Tunisia, 432 00:24:42,196 --> 00:24:45,236 Speaker 1: and then there was a similar one simultaneously in Sudan. 433 00:24:45,956 --> 00:24:48,756 Speaker 1: And in both cases they all knew about the Arab Spring. 434 00:24:48,916 --> 00:24:52,196 Speaker 1: They were using somewhat similar slogans, they knew the script, 435 00:24:52,956 --> 00:24:55,916 Speaker 1: and the dictators also knew the script, and in each 436 00:24:55,956 --> 00:24:59,356 Speaker 1: case it led to some meaningful change in who was 437 00:24:59,396 --> 00:25:02,676 Speaker 1: governing the country, But in neither case as it led 438 00:25:02,676 --> 00:25:06,556 Speaker 1: to a fundamental transformation in the form of government. They're 439 00:25:06,596 --> 00:25:10,156 Speaker 1: moving in both cases more slowly, there's more give and take, 440 00:25:10,596 --> 00:25:14,276 Speaker 1: and although there are transitions in who's governing, there aren't 441 00:25:14,356 --> 00:25:18,356 Speaker 1: fundamental societal transformations like we've seen in Tunisia. And what's 442 00:25:18,356 --> 00:25:20,036 Speaker 1: fascinating about that is, on the one hand, it shows 443 00:25:20,036 --> 00:25:22,156 Speaker 1: you that even though everyone's seeing the Arab Spring movie, 444 00:25:22,556 --> 00:25:25,676 Speaker 1: it still has power. People are still looking to use 445 00:25:25,756 --> 00:25:29,396 Speaker 1: those principles of self determination to change their lives. On 446 00:25:29,436 --> 00:25:31,316 Speaker 1: the other hand, if the bad guys know that too, 447 00:25:31,716 --> 00:25:33,476 Speaker 1: you know, the autocratic regimes, if you think they're the 448 00:25:33,476 --> 00:25:36,036 Speaker 1: bad guys as I tend to, they also understand that 449 00:25:36,076 --> 00:25:38,876 Speaker 1: they can give a little bit and then reconsolidate power. 450 00:25:39,316 --> 00:25:41,116 Speaker 1: And so what that suggested me is, even though I 451 00:25:41,156 --> 00:25:43,236 Speaker 1: think we're in a winter in the Arab world where 452 00:25:43,356 --> 00:25:47,116 Speaker 1: we're not going to see huge or substantial transitions to 453 00:25:47,156 --> 00:25:51,316 Speaker 1: self government in future years, there is always the possibility 454 00:25:51,356 --> 00:25:53,756 Speaker 1: for spring to break out again, and we've seen that 455 00:25:53,796 --> 00:25:55,996 Speaker 1: in a more limited way in those countries. And so 456 00:25:56,036 --> 00:25:59,716 Speaker 1: that's one slightly less pessimistic conclusion. You know, we're in 457 00:25:59,756 --> 00:26:03,796 Speaker 1: a winter, there is an Arab winter, but eventually seasons 458 00:26:03,796 --> 00:26:06,356 Speaker 1: are cyclical and this winter will give rise to a 459 00:26:06,396 --> 00:26:09,556 Speaker 1: new spring. Yeah, so what if you'll indult me as 460 00:26:09,556 --> 00:26:12,556 Speaker 1: the temporary occupant of the Noah Feldman chair. I want 461 00:26:12,556 --> 00:26:15,876 Speaker 1: to ask one to Noah Feldman questions, And the first 462 00:26:15,996 --> 00:26:18,676 Speaker 1: is about the range of stuff you write about. Your 463 00:26:19,156 --> 00:26:23,156 Speaker 1: previous book was a huge intellectual biography of James Madison, 464 00:26:23,236 --> 00:26:26,516 Speaker 1: a wonderful book with seemingly very little to do with 465 00:26:26,596 --> 00:26:29,756 Speaker 1: the Arabic linguistic analysis you do in the Air Winter. 466 00:26:30,076 --> 00:26:33,796 Speaker 1: Your book before that was about US China relations. Now 467 00:26:33,796 --> 00:26:38,116 Speaker 1: in the podcast world, we welcome polymaths like you. It's terrific. 468 00:26:38,156 --> 00:26:41,716 Speaker 1: You can talk to anybody about anything. But in academia, 469 00:26:41,796 --> 00:26:45,756 Speaker 1: don't they hate people like you? Well, I think hate 470 00:26:45,796 --> 00:26:48,756 Speaker 1: might be strong. I think the way that academics usually 471 00:26:48,756 --> 00:26:51,036 Speaker 1: express their disdain as they just don't read your book, 472 00:26:51,076 --> 00:26:55,396 Speaker 1: And that's fair enough. I don't know that it's polymathic though. 473 00:26:55,436 --> 00:26:57,996 Speaker 1: I mean for me, there is a central theme that 474 00:26:58,076 --> 00:27:00,116 Speaker 1: runs through all of the books that I've written and 475 00:27:00,716 --> 00:27:04,916 Speaker 1: a lot of my other work, and that is constitutions, 476 00:27:05,876 --> 00:27:08,996 Speaker 1: the deep question being how to human beings get together 477 00:27:09,596 --> 00:27:12,356 Speaker 1: to govern themselves when they pick the structures of how 478 00:27:12,396 --> 00:27:14,516 Speaker 1: they're going to govern themselves, not just the day to 479 00:27:14,596 --> 00:27:16,476 Speaker 1: day who's up who's down in partisan politics, but how 480 00:27:16,516 --> 00:27:19,876 Speaker 1: are they going to organize power? And you know, my 481 00:27:19,916 --> 00:27:23,556 Speaker 1: book about Madison was about the single greatest genius in 482 00:27:23,596 --> 00:27:26,676 Speaker 1: the last five hundred years in the world on that question. 483 00:27:27,276 --> 00:27:29,876 Speaker 1: So that was the central theme for me there and 484 00:27:29,956 --> 00:27:33,196 Speaker 1: even when I was writing about the US and China. 485 00:27:33,316 --> 00:27:37,996 Speaker 1: I wrote extensively about whether China was developing a set 486 00:27:38,036 --> 00:27:42,076 Speaker 1: of constitutional norms with a new method for transitioning for 487 00:27:42,196 --> 00:27:44,916 Speaker 1: government in and out, they would enable it to compete 488 00:27:44,956 --> 00:27:48,996 Speaker 1: globally as a governing model with the United States. So 489 00:27:49,236 --> 00:27:50,916 Speaker 1: that's the theme that's in all of the stuff that 490 00:27:50,956 --> 00:27:53,876 Speaker 1: I write, and I try to hope that my colleagues 491 00:27:53,916 --> 00:27:56,716 Speaker 1: will recognize that I do have that theme going, so 492 00:27:56,716 --> 00:27:58,476 Speaker 1: they won't think that I'm too all over the place. 493 00:27:58,876 --> 00:28:01,716 Speaker 1: And well, I guess. And my last question is sort 494 00:28:01,756 --> 00:28:05,036 Speaker 1: of about your involvement and constitution making. In a way, 495 00:28:05,916 --> 00:28:10,636 Speaker 1: here's this guy, Noah Feldman in Tunisia giving advice about 496 00:28:10,676 --> 00:28:14,596 Speaker 1: how much Shariah should influence the writing of the constitution. 497 00:28:15,316 --> 00:28:19,116 Speaker 1: And I do wonder about someone of Jewish heritage in 498 00:28:19,156 --> 00:28:23,236 Speaker 1: this Islamic country and dealing with this topic generally, what's 499 00:28:23,236 --> 00:28:24,916 Speaker 1: it like for you and what's it like for them? 500 00:28:24,996 --> 00:28:28,116 Speaker 1: I know Tunisia is one of many North African countries 501 00:28:28,156 --> 00:28:31,076 Speaker 1: that used to have a big Jewish population, doesn't anymore. 502 00:28:31,116 --> 00:28:34,436 Speaker 1: Did they welcome you? My experience is it ninety nine 503 00:28:34,476 --> 00:28:38,116 Speaker 1: percent of the time, nobody cares if you're Jewish. For 504 00:28:38,156 --> 00:28:42,476 Speaker 1: the most part. On an ordinary basis, people don't think 505 00:28:42,516 --> 00:28:46,796 Speaker 1: that religious background matters all that much. Your primary identity 506 00:28:46,836 --> 00:28:49,396 Speaker 1: if you're there from abroad, is as an American. But 507 00:28:49,476 --> 00:28:52,836 Speaker 1: that one percent can make a difference, and where it 508 00:28:52,836 --> 00:28:56,236 Speaker 1: makes a difference is when things go south. So Saudi 509 00:28:56,316 --> 00:29:02,076 Speaker 1: Arabian newspaper published a completely invented fictional article that basically 510 00:29:02,116 --> 00:29:04,756 Speaker 1: made me into an international man of mystery, you know, 511 00:29:04,796 --> 00:29:08,396 Speaker 1: a spy for Dick Cheney and a spy for the 512 00:29:08,676 --> 00:29:12,116 Speaker 1: you know, Israeli intelligence, and attributed to me all kinds 513 00:29:12,116 --> 00:29:14,916 Speaker 1: of travels and constitutional accomplishments all over the Arabic's being 514 00:29:14,956 --> 00:29:17,676 Speaker 1: world Clinton hunters I'd never been to. And actually I 515 00:29:17,716 --> 00:29:19,676 Speaker 1: got the Saudi paper with the help of a Saudi 516 00:29:19,756 --> 00:29:22,436 Speaker 1: lawyer friend of mine, to actually retract the story, although 517 00:29:22,596 --> 00:29:24,836 Speaker 1: I don't think it really made much difference. And then 518 00:29:24,876 --> 00:29:27,116 Speaker 1: I didn't think about it much until my very last 519 00:29:27,116 --> 00:29:30,516 Speaker 1: trip to Tunisia. And so I had this crazy experience 520 00:29:30,796 --> 00:29:34,596 Speaker 1: of being in the Constituent Assembly watching the debates and 521 00:29:34,716 --> 00:29:38,716 Speaker 1: ratification of the constitution and then hearing my name and 522 00:29:38,756 --> 00:29:42,356 Speaker 1: there was a delegate from a very minor party who 523 00:29:42,396 --> 00:29:45,116 Speaker 1: was just trying to make trouble for the various majority parties, 524 00:29:45,876 --> 00:29:49,356 Speaker 1: and he brought up my name on the floor in 525 00:29:49,436 --> 00:29:52,916 Speaker 1: order to criticize the parties I was working with, and 526 00:29:53,156 --> 00:29:57,516 Speaker 1: basically repeated some version of this old idea that I 527 00:29:57,556 --> 00:30:01,116 Speaker 1: was a spy of some kind. And I very quietly 528 00:30:01,156 --> 00:30:04,356 Speaker 1: got up and walked out of the observation deck and 529 00:30:04,596 --> 00:30:07,756 Speaker 1: headed for my car with my briefcase. But unfortunately, by 530 00:30:07,756 --> 00:30:09,436 Speaker 1: the time I got out the door, you know, the 531 00:30:09,436 --> 00:30:11,276 Speaker 1: press was out there. There was a gaggle and they 532 00:30:11,276 --> 00:30:13,276 Speaker 1: were calling out to me and asking me if I 533 00:30:13,316 --> 00:30:15,156 Speaker 1: was a spy. And I stopped and told them that 534 00:30:15,196 --> 00:30:18,556 Speaker 1: I wasn't a spy, and you know, I headed for 535 00:30:18,676 --> 00:30:20,476 Speaker 1: my car, and I went to my hotel and I 536 00:30:20,516 --> 00:30:23,876 Speaker 1: packed my bag, and I, moving as slowly and calmly 537 00:30:23,916 --> 00:30:26,636 Speaker 1: as I could, went to the airport and literally bought 538 00:30:26,636 --> 00:30:29,796 Speaker 1: a ticket on the very first flight out of the country. 539 00:30:29,916 --> 00:30:32,236 Speaker 1: It felt that threatening. It felt like it was not 540 00:30:32,396 --> 00:30:37,236 Speaker 1: a good moment to be on national television being denounced 541 00:30:37,276 --> 00:30:41,836 Speaker 1: as a Jewish slash Israeli. Obviously, I'm not Asraeli slash 542 00:30:41,836 --> 00:30:44,676 Speaker 1: American spy, and I'm on a spy. And when I 543 00:30:44,716 --> 00:30:46,636 Speaker 1: came home, I showed the video, which was then showed 544 00:30:46,636 --> 00:30:49,996 Speaker 1: on national television to my kids, and I said, so, 545 00:30:50,116 --> 00:30:52,516 Speaker 1: does it look like a plausible denial? And my son 546 00:30:52,636 --> 00:30:54,476 Speaker 1: said to me, are you crazy? Like you look like 547 00:30:54,476 --> 00:30:57,396 Speaker 1: a complete spy. You know, I realized there isn't any 548 00:30:57,436 --> 00:30:59,916 Speaker 1: good way to deny being a spy. And then the 549 00:31:00,236 --> 00:31:03,716 Speaker 1: last coda to it was on the evening news that 550 00:31:03,796 --> 00:31:05,796 Speaker 1: night there was a debate about you know, was I 551 00:31:05,796 --> 00:31:08,276 Speaker 1: a spy? Was I a perfectly normal guy who had 552 00:31:08,276 --> 00:31:10,276 Speaker 1: been there six times helping out with a constitution. And 553 00:31:10,316 --> 00:31:12,756 Speaker 1: it was an intense debate, and I was being defended 554 00:31:13,116 --> 00:31:15,676 Speaker 1: by a really impressive woman who was a member of 555 00:31:15,716 --> 00:31:18,236 Speaker 1: the Constituent Assembly, a young woman who belonged to the 556 00:31:18,316 --> 00:31:20,876 Speaker 1: Islamist political party, you know, wearing it a job. And 557 00:31:20,916 --> 00:31:23,036 Speaker 1: it got a little heated, and I sent the clip 558 00:31:23,076 --> 00:31:26,916 Speaker 1: to my mother, who doesn't speak Arabic, and she said, 559 00:31:26,916 --> 00:31:28,836 Speaker 1: oh my gosh, you know, like, is that person coming 560 00:31:28,836 --> 00:31:30,556 Speaker 1: after you? And I said, no, you got it backwards. 561 00:31:30,716 --> 00:31:33,276 Speaker 1: You know, the Islamist woman is the one saying, Felma 562 00:31:33,436 --> 00:31:35,316 Speaker 1: is just a constitutional law professor who's been here a 563 00:31:35,316 --> 00:31:36,956 Speaker 1: bunch of times to help out, and you know, this 564 00:31:36,996 --> 00:31:39,956 Speaker 1: is completely paranoid and crazy. It was the secularists who 565 00:31:39,956 --> 00:31:42,996 Speaker 1: were trying to embarrass the Islamists. So to me, the 566 00:31:43,036 --> 00:31:46,476 Speaker 1: takeaway was there, in a democratic country, which Tunisia had 567 00:31:46,476 --> 00:31:49,316 Speaker 1: become by then, you could actually have a public debate 568 00:31:49,356 --> 00:31:52,516 Speaker 1: where someone from a major party with a political future 569 00:31:53,116 --> 00:31:56,996 Speaker 1: would go on television and defend the Jewish American constitutional 570 00:31:57,076 --> 00:31:59,516 Speaker 1: law professor and tell the people who were being paranoid 571 00:31:59,516 --> 00:32:02,876 Speaker 1: and crazy, you're being paranoid and crazy. That could not 572 00:32:02,996 --> 00:32:06,876 Speaker 1: have happened in any other Arabic speaking country in the 573 00:32:06,916 --> 00:32:09,596 Speaker 1: modern period. So I walked away from mid feeling positive. 574 00:32:09,636 --> 00:32:11,716 Speaker 1: And although I haven't been back to Tunisia since, I 575 00:32:11,716 --> 00:32:13,876 Speaker 1: would happily go back now. I mean, Tunisia is a 576 00:32:13,876 --> 00:32:17,236 Speaker 1: functioning democracy. It's not a paradise, but it is really 577 00:32:17,276 --> 00:32:21,036 Speaker 1: a functioning democracy in the Middle East with good basic rights. 578 00:32:21,436 --> 00:32:24,516 Speaker 1: And that's not nothing. That's an incredible accomplishment. You know, 579 00:32:24,556 --> 00:32:26,596 Speaker 1: we're used to hearing people saying, oh, Israel is the 580 00:32:26,596 --> 00:32:28,516 Speaker 1: only democracy in the Middle East. That's just not true. 581 00:32:28,716 --> 00:32:30,556 Speaker 1: You know, Tunisia is a functioning democracy and it has 582 00:32:30,556 --> 00:32:33,036 Speaker 1: been for some years now. And if the dominoes were 583 00:32:33,036 --> 00:32:35,756 Speaker 1: to start falling back the other way, what would be next? 584 00:32:35,796 --> 00:32:38,396 Speaker 1: I mean, what's the next country where you could imagine 585 00:32:38,516 --> 00:32:41,276 Speaker 1: giving some behind the scenes advice about how to have 586 00:32:41,316 --> 00:32:44,116 Speaker 1: a good constitution. I wish I could say, oh, I 587 00:32:44,156 --> 00:32:46,276 Speaker 1: know where it'll be. You know, it'll be in Beirut, 588 00:32:46,396 --> 00:32:48,716 Speaker 1: you know, or it'll be an Amman. I don't think 589 00:32:48,716 --> 00:32:51,116 Speaker 1: it's as simple as that. There's a good reason for that, 590 00:32:51,156 --> 00:32:53,396 Speaker 1: which is that, in the end, this is the central 591 00:32:53,396 --> 00:32:55,996 Speaker 1: theme of the book, it's actually up to the people 592 00:32:56,156 --> 00:32:59,236 Speaker 1: in these Arabic speaking countries to decide for themselves that 593 00:32:59,236 --> 00:33:02,436 Speaker 1: they're ready to self govern. It's not something which an 594 00:33:02,436 --> 00:33:06,196 Speaker 1: external actor can make happen. You know, the United States 595 00:33:06,276 --> 00:33:09,956 Speaker 1: invaded Iraq, we help them draft a constitution, participated in that. 596 00:33:10,436 --> 00:33:13,116 Speaker 1: It wasn't enough. In fact, we left Iroq worse off 597 00:33:13,476 --> 00:33:15,836 Speaker 1: than we found it, which is a terrible moral responsibility 598 00:33:15,836 --> 00:33:18,156 Speaker 1: that we have and that I feel my own proportionate 599 00:33:18,196 --> 00:33:21,636 Speaker 1: share in because it wasn't chosen by them. They need 600 00:33:21,676 --> 00:33:24,396 Speaker 1: to make that determination for themselves, and to me, that's 601 00:33:24,436 --> 00:33:27,316 Speaker 1: the ultimate takeaway here. People will try. They may not 602 00:33:27,436 --> 00:33:29,796 Speaker 1: succeed all the time, but that's also part of what 603 00:33:29,876 --> 00:33:32,156 Speaker 1: makes the effort noble. You know, if you know you 604 00:33:32,196 --> 00:33:34,876 Speaker 1: can succeed in doing something, it's nice that you're doing it. 605 00:33:34,916 --> 00:33:37,636 Speaker 1: But it's not that noble to try. Nobility is where 606 00:33:37,676 --> 00:33:40,236 Speaker 1: you take a major risk in life and you try 607 00:33:40,276 --> 00:33:43,516 Speaker 1: to make something work and it can fail. And so 608 00:33:43,596 --> 00:33:45,596 Speaker 1: to me, the fact that the Arab Spring failed to 609 00:33:45,636 --> 00:33:48,996 Speaker 1: achieve its goals in a lot of places is not 610 00:33:49,076 --> 00:33:52,196 Speaker 1: a reason to discount the nobility of the effort. It 611 00:33:52,276 --> 00:33:55,316 Speaker 1: was still noble, and although the results were tragic in 612 00:33:55,356 --> 00:33:58,556 Speaker 1: a lot of places, there's still Tunisia to remind you 613 00:33:58,596 --> 00:34:01,236 Speaker 1: that they didn't have to end in tragedy. Well, no, 614 00:34:01,396 --> 00:34:04,196 Speaker 1: I just want to end by recommending the book again. 615 00:34:04,356 --> 00:34:07,476 Speaker 1: It is absolutely as interesting as you are talking about it. 616 00:34:07,916 --> 00:34:10,676 Speaker 1: And I guess since the point where I get to 617 00:34:10,716 --> 00:34:13,716 Speaker 1: say thank you for joining me on your show, thank 618 00:34:13,756 --> 00:34:15,716 Speaker 1: you for joining me on my show, to be me 619 00:34:15,836 --> 00:34:18,716 Speaker 1: on my show, I really appreciate it, Jacob, Thanks babe. 620 00:34:19,996 --> 00:34:22,996 Speaker 1: Deep Background is brought to you by Pushkin Industries. Our 621 00:34:23,036 --> 00:34:26,956 Speaker 1: producer is Lydia Gencott, with research help from zooe Wynn. 622 00:34:27,436 --> 00:34:31,116 Speaker 1: Mastering is by Jason Gambrel and Martin Gonzalez. Our showrunner 623 00:34:31,156 --> 00:34:34,076 Speaker 1: is Sophie mckibbon. Our theme music is composed by Luis 624 00:34:34,156 --> 00:34:38,596 Speaker 1: GERA special thanks to the Pushkin Brass Malcolm Gladwell, Jacob Weisberg, 625 00:34:38,636 --> 00:34:41,796 Speaker 1: and Mia Loebell. I'm Noah Feldman. I also write a 626 00:34:41,876 --> 00:34:44,516 Speaker 1: regular column for Bloomberg Opinion, which you can find at 627 00:34:44,516 --> 00:34:49,636 Speaker 1: bloomberg dot com slash Feldman. Discover Bloomberg's original slate of podcasts, 628 00:34:49,876 --> 00:34:53,636 Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash Podcasts. You can follow 629 00:34:53,676 --> 00:34:57,116 Speaker 1: me on Twitter at Noah har Feldman. This is deep 630 00:34:57,196 --> 00:34:57,756 Speaker 1: background