1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

2
00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

3
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520
Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

4
00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,560
Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

5
00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

6
00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,720
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Let's bring in Noel Abert.

7
00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:24,599
Speaker 1: He covers all things credit, fixed income. He's a co

8
00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,280
Speaker 1: director of research at Bloomberg Intelligence, one of the smarter

9
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 1: dudes out there, um that we talked to. No, let's

10
00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:34,120
Speaker 1: just start here. I mean, you're all over the credit

11
00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:38,280
Speaker 1: space here. What do you expect and from the Federal Reserve?

12
00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,519
Speaker 1: I guess tomorrow and then maybe going forward. Yeah, I

13
00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:43,360
Speaker 1: think well, at the high level, I mean, you're looking

14
00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,560
Speaker 1: for maybe twenty five basis points tomorrow than another twenty

15
00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:48,760
Speaker 1: five basis points. But I think one of the places

16
00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,559
Speaker 1: where myself and uh, you know, my group kind of

17
00:00:52,600 --> 00:00:55,440
Speaker 1: disagrees with broader consensus is that after that, I think

18
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,040
Speaker 1: the the higher for longer sort of FED holding path

19
00:00:58,080 --> 00:00:59,320
Speaker 1: through the end of the year is sort of the

20
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,960
Speaker 1: base case for says if you look at where the

21
00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,480
Speaker 1: rates markets are. Obviously they're looking for a little bit

22
00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:07,440
Speaker 1: of retracement or pivots somewhere around mid year. So why

23
00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:09,640
Speaker 1: do you think the market what what's the market maybe

24
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:12,520
Speaker 1: looking at? And yeah, I mean, you're right, the feder

25
00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:14,720
Speaker 1: reserve is pretty clear in the messaging that we're going

26
00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 1: to stay higher for some period of time, but as

27
00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:20,480
Speaker 1: you mentioned, the markets not necessarily buying that. What do

28
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,840
Speaker 1: you think is going on there? Well, I think it's

29
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,480
Speaker 1: probably a decade's worth of the Fed sort of facilitating

30
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:30,399
Speaker 1: sort of the market enthusiasm combined with sort of a

31
00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:33,360
Speaker 1: very mixed macroeconomic picture, right. I mean, I think it's

32
00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:36,760
Speaker 1: hard to you know, pull out or distinguish sort of

33
00:01:36,800 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 1: the good and the bad. I mean, I think there's

34
00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:40,039
Speaker 1: a lot of softness that seems to be cropping up

35
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:41,840
Speaker 1: in parts of the manufacturing sector and some of the

36
00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:45,160
Speaker 1: consumer sentiments side, uh bott the flip side. We saw

37
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:47,760
Speaker 1: a strong jobs data, so I think from a standpoint

38
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,920
Speaker 1: you could say, hey, listen, strong jobs, but we still

39
00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,440
Speaker 1: got this sort of elevated inflation, and so you can

40
00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:54,560
Speaker 1: kind of ignore sort of the weaker consumer thing that

41
00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,880
Speaker 1: seems to be drawing the attention of the market, Well,

42
00:01:57,920 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 1: it looks like the inflation may turn around even more

43
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,920
Speaker 1: quick Well, certainly on the good side, we're starting to

44
00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,360
Speaker 1: see what feels like deflation in the automotive sector in

45
00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: a lot of non grocery retail. What about the services

46
00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:15,760
Speaker 1: and um, you know, the I guess rent component. Well

47
00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:17,920
Speaker 1: I don't know because I just got my E V Hummer,

48
00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:22,720
Speaker 1: But so, but now I think on the service design,

49
00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:24,200
Speaker 1: it's a little bit of a mixed picture. I think

50
00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,840
Speaker 1: you're seeing some softness there. Um, But you know, on

51
00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:29,519
Speaker 1: the rent side, I think is a you know, I

52
00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:31,960
Speaker 1: think they're changing the methodology a little bit later this year,

53
00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:34,799
Speaker 1: but we're seeing some moderation, but it's still going to

54
00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,080
Speaker 1: kind of we're still running a little bit hot on

55
00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:40,160
Speaker 1: that side, because I mean, remember that rents aren't necessarily

56
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,560
Speaker 1: related to home prices, where we're seeing a little bit

57
00:02:43,560 --> 00:02:46,680
Speaker 1: more rapid deceleration. Hey, no, I know you've had a

58
00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 1: long career on Wall Street looking at this credit business

59
00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,040
Speaker 1: and last year you know, it's just one for the

60
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:56,160
Speaker 1: books in terms of underperformance. But you guys are bouncing

61
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:57,840
Speaker 1: back a little bit here in January. Talk to us

62
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,560
Speaker 1: about the performance we're seeing in January austocratic space. Yeah.

63
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,040
Speaker 1: So I mean in investment grade, you're gonna be looking

64
00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 1: at probably the third best uh year going back forty years.

65
00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:10,880
Speaker 1: So uh, you know, in a lot of that's going

66
00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,839
Speaker 1: to be rates driven, right, because an investment grade you're

67
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,000
Speaker 1: sensitive to duration, i e. You know, the more interest

68
00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:20,520
Speaker 1: rates moved, the more pricing moves. So with treasury yields

69
00:03:20,520 --> 00:03:22,840
Speaker 1: coming down, that's driven a lot of you know, our

70
00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:25,480
Speaker 1: performance on the investment grade side, but even high yields

71
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 1: uh seem a pretty healthy starting pretty much anything kinidi

72
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:32,000
Speaker 1: fixed income. Uh, you know, whether you're talking municipals or

73
00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:35,320
Speaker 1: mortgage bats, etcetera. You know, all sort of keying in

74
00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 1: on what are the better starts to the year that

75
00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:40,120
Speaker 1: we've seen, you know, in the last couple of decades

76
00:03:40,160 --> 00:03:43,480
Speaker 1: at the very least. Um not surprising, I mean, given

77
00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:48,320
Speaker 1: the prepentous year that you have for mentioned. But you know, nonetheless,

78
00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:50,040
Speaker 1: I think you know, it takes the edge off for

79
00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,120
Speaker 1: people that are still looking their wounds. What are the

80
00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,320
Speaker 1: biggest headwinds you think? No, I mean, if we uh,

81
00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,560
Speaker 1: if we see a repeat of you know, everyone talks

82
00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,840
Speaker 1: about our their burns, you know, the FED kind of

83
00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,600
Speaker 1: calms down a little bit and then inflation starts, um

84
00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:07,560
Speaker 1: poking up a bit. Is that is that very bad

85
00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,520
Speaker 1: for for the credit world? Well, I think it will

86
00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,600
Speaker 1: learn a little bit tomorrow, right, I mean I think, uh,

87
00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:16,919
Speaker 1: you know, if POWE comes out and sort of tries

88
00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,400
Speaker 1: to really re established that sort of hackish under the

89
00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,080
Speaker 1: spectrum and we start to reprice the curve, I think

90
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:24,520
Speaker 1: that's where I don't know that you'd necessarily get a

91
00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,919
Speaker 1: big sell off, but you'd certainly get a little bit

92
00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 1: of a pause and sort of the enthusiasm that's out there,

93
00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:32,280
Speaker 1: because one of the things that we've seen, you know,

94
00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,040
Speaker 1: early on is it's not only rates that are driving

95
00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,200
Speaker 1: the returns, but people have been very aggressive in the

96
00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,560
Speaker 1: risk bit, i e. Spreads have compressed quite a bit

97
00:04:40,600 --> 00:04:44,599
Speaker 1: as well, despite the macro economic headwinds. So if you

98
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,280
Speaker 1: get a FED that says no, no, no, no, you

99
00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 1: gotta believe us, right, you could start to see some

100
00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:51,880
Speaker 1: reprice them settling in the right side, and then some

101
00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,560
Speaker 1: repricing in the spread side that maybe you know, tempers

102
00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,640
Speaker 1: the excitement out there and maybe you know it leaves

103
00:04:58,680 --> 00:05:00,240
Speaker 1: you a little bit more with the coupon and as

104
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:02,960
Speaker 1: opposed to a bigger you know return picture. Well, because

105
00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,480
Speaker 1: the market doesn't believe the Fed's gonna get to five percent,

106
00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:08,599
Speaker 1: not an effective FED funds rate of five percent? Is

107
00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,479
Speaker 1: there any reason that? I mean, of course he's gonna

108
00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,960
Speaker 1: job ow. He he has to, that's his job. But

109
00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:20,839
Speaker 1: does anybody besides day traders like care? Uh you know, well, well,

110
00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,800
Speaker 1: I mean I think everybody on the rate side cares, right,

111
00:05:23,839 --> 00:05:25,760
Speaker 1: because I just mean, no, you know, if he's he

112
00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:30,200
Speaker 1: can talk, uh the talk, but can he walk the walk?

113
00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,719
Speaker 1: Twenty five basis points is just to me it feels

114
00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,240
Speaker 1: so weak and luke warm. I mean, if you're gonna

115
00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:36,760
Speaker 1: already do that, then I'm not going to listen to

116
00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:38,440
Speaker 1: the rest of the speech unless you come out with

117
00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:42,680
Speaker 1: fifty I don't buy it. No, I'm not. I'm not

118
00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:46,279
Speaker 1: unsympathetic to your view, but I'm also not the rate strategist,

119
00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:48,960
Speaker 1: so it's not really for me to opine. Al Right.

120
00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,080
Speaker 1: I was not here, Yeah, we can step. I was

121
00:05:51,200 --> 00:05:54,280
Speaker 1: like watching a soccer soccer match somewhere, alright, So no,

122
00:05:54,839 --> 00:05:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, if I'm an issuer here, like as a

123
00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,279
Speaker 1: former bang and put my banker had on again there.

124
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,760
Speaker 1: I mean, just a few months ago, I was I

125
00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:05,760
Speaker 1: was issuing paper like close to zero percent. Now rates

126
00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:07,920
Speaker 1: are a lot higher. This isn't as much fun anymore.

127
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,080
Speaker 1: Talk to us about kind of the new issuance market

128
00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:13,240
Speaker 1: year to date and kind of what you expect this year. Yeah,

129
00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,360
Speaker 1: So on the investment grade sign, I mean, I mean

130
00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,080
Speaker 1: both markets have gotten off to a reasonably healthy start.

131
00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,480
Speaker 1: I think last year for investment grade, we saw about

132
00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 1: one point two trillion, which is sort of in keeping

133
00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,719
Speaker 1: if you look at years outside of the media post

134
00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:29,680
Speaker 1: pandemic when things went crazy, that's sort of like an

135
00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:31,800
Speaker 1: average year. I think we're gonna come down a little

136
00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:35,000
Speaker 1: bit from that, maybe closer to one point one trillion,

137
00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:38,160
Speaker 1: which is one owing to the higher rates that you mentioned,

138
00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:41,440
Speaker 1: but also you just have a kind of a weaker

139
00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,640
Speaker 1: maturity calendar this year. High yields a little bit different

140
00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,520
Speaker 1: story because last year was basically shut down. Uh, you know,

141
00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:49,320
Speaker 1: when we got a hundred twenty billion out of there

142
00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:52,680
Speaker 1: versus you know, mid twos to low threes, which is

143
00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,839
Speaker 1: more common. Uh. This year, I still think we're gonna

144
00:06:56,040 --> 00:06:59,320
Speaker 1: not quite make it to two billion, but we're gonna

145
00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,520
Speaker 1: start pulling forward some of that talents because high yield,

146
00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:05,560
Speaker 1: you know, anytime you get a market opening any majority

147
00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:07,479
Speaker 1: that's sort of within that eighteen month window, you got

148
00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,880
Speaker 1: to start looking at uh and so we'll see some

149
00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:11,840
Speaker 1: of that this year. We've actually already seen some of

150
00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,080
Speaker 1: that in January. You know, we're a little over twenty

151
00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:17,640
Speaker 1: billion for January this year, which is down from last January,

152
00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,560
Speaker 1: but still other than last January would be the strongest

153
00:07:20,640 --> 00:07:22,960
Speaker 1: month in the last year and change. Alright, the bankers

154
00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:24,800
Speaker 1: are gonna get paid. That makes that warms my heart.

155
00:07:24,960 --> 00:07:27,040
Speaker 1: All right, No, thanks so much for joining us. Noel Hibert,

156
00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence chiefs Credit Strategists. He's co director of research

157
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 1: for that. All that credit research coming out of Bloomberg Intelligence,

158
00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,800
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Intelligence was one of the few shops on

159
00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:40,440
Speaker 1: Wall Street that still provides credit research, and they do

160
00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,600
Speaker 1: it across the board. More than two thousand companies, hundred

161
00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:49,760
Speaker 1: twenty industries. Lots of earnings this week, lots of eco data,

162
00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,200
Speaker 1: We got the Fed tomorrow, Lots for investors to chew on.

163
00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,040
Speaker 1: You can call for your financial bias and say what

164
00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,240
Speaker 1: am I doing now? After the brutal let's check out

165
00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,440
Speaker 1: with somebody who does this stuff for living Gene Bolvin.

166
00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:04,040
Speaker 1: She's a president of Bovin Wealth Management. Gina, thanks so

167
00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,560
Speaker 1: much for taking the time here. Um, boy, after what

168
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,200
Speaker 1: was just a brutally and the old sixty portfolio, I'd

169
00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,040
Speaker 1: love to know kind of what your initial communication was

170
00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:19,400
Speaker 1: to your clients about what to do in twenty three. Yeah,

171
00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:22,600
Speaker 1: thanks for having me. It's great to see you. Um.

172
00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,200
Speaker 1: You know, we are having a great year so far.

173
00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:27,239
Speaker 1: We have the S and P up about five point

174
00:08:27,280 --> 00:08:31,400
Speaker 1: four percent, the nastacks up about ten two. We've been

175
00:08:31,440 --> 00:08:34,560
Speaker 1: telling our clients to sit tight because if you miss

176
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,199
Speaker 1: those great days in the market, you're really not going

177
00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:42,440
Speaker 1: to participate in the upside. And um, we're expecting more

178
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,640
Speaker 1: of the same for this year. Outlook. Our base case

179
00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:50,840
Speaker 1: is to be up by by the year end, but

180
00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:58,679
Speaker 1: expect by year end, but we think it's going to

181
00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,839
Speaker 1: take all year to get there. Well good, I mean,

182
00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:03,839
Speaker 1: if you're gonna find that high, you don't want to

183
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,080
Speaker 1: do it in a month, right, Um, you want to build. Yeah,

184
00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:09,080
Speaker 1: So we do think that it's going to be another

185
00:09:09,160 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 1: choppy year. Um. This is as you know, as you've

186
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:15,560
Speaker 1: been talking about. It's a pivotal week with the FED meeting.

187
00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,880
Speaker 1: Tomorrow's the first f o MC meeting of this year.

188
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:24,800
Speaker 1: The markets are expecting UM to base point hike and

189
00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:29,360
Speaker 1: another and you know, well, we know that we've reached

190
00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:33,680
Speaker 1: peak inflation, but I think the main question is have

191
00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:39,320
Speaker 1: we have we reached peak hawkishness? Interesting, Well, we'll part

192
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 1: that a little bitmorrow. We'll see a little bit tomorrow,

193
00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,280
Speaker 1: we'll see what kind of tone, uh, this takes. I've

194
00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,040
Speaker 1: certainly been talking tough, So, Gina, it give us a

195
00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,160
Speaker 1: sense of kind of who your average client is and

196
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,880
Speaker 1: maybe what an average portfolio looks for your client these

197
00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:57,720
Speaker 1: days a two year in terms of your talk in return,

198
00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,800
Speaker 1: what a portfolio should look like? Yeah, yeah, just kind

199
00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:02,319
Speaker 1: of you know, when you sit down with somebody for

200
00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 1: the first time, how do you think about, you know,

201
00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,719
Speaker 1: constructing your portfolio, given given the year we just had

202
00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 1: in given that we've got so much you know, across

203
00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:13,800
Speaker 1: winds out there. Well, I think it's really important to

204
00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,800
Speaker 1: take a look at what your income needs are right

205
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,600
Speaker 1: before you build a portfolio. You have to get a

206
00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,840
Speaker 1: sense of somebody's risk tolerance, time horizon, and what income

207
00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,200
Speaker 1: needs that they have. So we would start by doing

208
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,439
Speaker 1: a financial plan and doing an intake of UM, what

209
00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:36,439
Speaker 1: they're looking for, and aggressive or conservative mean different things

210
00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,239
Speaker 1: to different people. I think that's what was so difficult

211
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:42,560
Speaker 1: about last year is it was one of the worst

212
00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:48,160
Speaker 1: bond markets ever in the history, and conservative investors really

213
00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:53,080
Speaker 1: didn't see any diversification that helped their portfolio. But we

214
00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,360
Speaker 1: do think that's going to change this year, and we

215
00:10:55,400 --> 00:10:57,800
Speaker 1: do think it will be a better year for stocks

216
00:10:57,840 --> 00:11:01,560
Speaker 1: and for bonds. So, Gina, you were named one of

217
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:05,640
Speaker 1: the top advisors, top female advisor and Forbes. Um, what

218
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:10,480
Speaker 1: do you think got you those accolades? Great clients, hard work,

219
00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,920
Speaker 1: being honest with my clients, trying to do the best

220
00:11:13,920 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 1: things for them. I've a great research team, and really

221
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 1: not making um the wrong decision at the long time.

222
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:26,240
Speaker 1: You know, not panic buying, but not panic selling. So

223
00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,120
Speaker 1: here's this kind of a it sounds like, if I

224
00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:30,920
Speaker 1: hear correctly, it's kind of a you're kind of a

225
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 1: buy on the weakness here for this market. You think

226
00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,880
Speaker 1: we're gonna move higher this year, but you know, are

227
00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:39,960
Speaker 1: you adding capital to the market today? Are you waiting

228
00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:44,400
Speaker 1: for pullbacks? How are you tactically getting that done? Well? Um,

229
00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 1: so right now, we and in the past year, we've

230
00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:50,440
Speaker 1: had a value kilt. So what that means we've been

231
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:55,040
Speaker 1: investing in like quality blue chip stocks that paid dividends. UM.

232
00:11:55,240 --> 00:12:01,000
Speaker 1: That would be oil stocks. In We like industrials, erro space, defense.

233
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,920
Speaker 1: You know, we see an uptrend in defense spending. Capital

234
00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:11,000
Speaker 1: spending has been resilient. They are strong technicals. We like healthcare, farmer, biotech,

235
00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,480
Speaker 1: medical equipment. Because of COVID, there's been a lot of

236
00:12:14,920 --> 00:12:19,000
Speaker 1: pent up demand for procedures. UM, there's a good demographic

237
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:22,960
Speaker 1: kale wind. We also like UM banks, big banks, and

238
00:12:23,040 --> 00:12:27,760
Speaker 1: pokerage farms. There are some cheap evaluations. UM. We think

239
00:12:27,760 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 1: their recession resistant and UM, you know, think about what

240
00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,680
Speaker 1: happened in two thousand and eight when they had to

241
00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:38,200
Speaker 1: go through Since two thousand and ate a lot of

242
00:12:38,240 --> 00:12:42,280
Speaker 1: stress tests, so they're in really good shape. And UM

243
00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,800
Speaker 1: we think earnings growth for the banks were likely to

244
00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:49,400
Speaker 1: continue this year. And we also like oil oil UM stocks.

245
00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:54,920
Speaker 1: They've volatile, but there's good valuations. UM. However, you know,

246
00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,800
Speaker 1: so those are the more conservative stocks that we have

247
00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:03,520
Speaker 1: been tilted in. However, as we get closer to interest

248
00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:10,040
Speaker 1: rate hike hikes ending, UM, we are going to be

249
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:13,439
Speaker 1: a buy you more on some of the technology stocks.

250
00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:17,360
Speaker 1: You know they've had a fabulous year. We wouldn't chase

251
00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:20,840
Speaker 1: that just yet. They've up about the nastacks up about

252
00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:23,240
Speaker 1: over ten this year, so it's one of the best

253
00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,439
Speaker 1: years since nine. But we might see a little bit

254
00:13:27,440 --> 00:13:31,160
Speaker 1: of weakness as we get closer to the FED easing

255
00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:36,160
Speaker 1: or pausing even that that would be benefit tech stocks,

256
00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:38,640
Speaker 1: but we do expect them to be volatile. Well. They've

257
00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:41,680
Speaker 1: definitely done well in the first month, that is for sure,

258
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 1: up almost ten percent on the last trading day of January.

259
00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:48,400
Speaker 1: S and P s up uh five. Gina, thanks so

260
00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:51,440
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Pleasure having you on the program.

261
00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:53,800
Speaker 1: Gina Bolden there from Bolden Wealth Management talking to us

262
00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 1: about her view on the markets. A fifteen percent gain

263
00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,640
Speaker 1: by year end would be that would be good. I

264
00:14:01,679 --> 00:14:07,680
Speaker 1: think everybody would take that. Think back to October coming

265
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,240
Speaker 1: off of those lows. It's been a nice move up

266
00:14:10,280 --> 00:14:12,520
Speaker 1: in these markets. Here A lot of folks are saying

267
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 1: is that it is this the beginning of another bullmark

268
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,719
Speaker 1: and another leg up in the market. Katrina Simonettie, she's

269
00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,600
Speaker 1: a senior vice president private wealth advisor at Morgan Stanley,

270
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 1: joins us. How do you for you this equity market here.

271
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:27,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, as such a brutal last year,

272
00:14:27,160 --> 00:14:29,040
Speaker 1: but if you kind of, you know, just kind of

273
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,520
Speaker 1: got into the game in October, it's been a good

274
00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:35,200
Speaker 1: market here. What are you telling your clients? Well, it

275
00:14:35,240 --> 00:14:37,840
Speaker 1: has been a good market. And you know, you can't

276
00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,400
Speaker 1: blame the investors for wanting to be optimistic. You know,

277
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,360
Speaker 1: we're just so desperately, you know, kind of just clinging

278
00:14:44,400 --> 00:14:46,760
Speaker 1: for that little bit of a release. And you know,

279
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,600
Speaker 1: the fact of it is is that for the entire

280
00:14:48,640 --> 00:14:52,280
Speaker 1: twenty two we have been focused on the FED on inflation,

281
00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,960
Speaker 1: and we can't really ignore the fact that, you know,

282
00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 1: following inflution shows the effectiveness of the FED quality. In

283
00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:03,520
Speaker 1: our view, though this optimism is highly premature. We think

284
00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:06,680
Speaker 1: that there is a lot more volatility ahead. And in

285
00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 1: our review, the story for twenty three is not the

286
00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 1: story of the fat or installation, or even the fact

287
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,359
Speaker 1: the CPI is getting under control, which is good news.

288
00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:20,479
Speaker 1: This is the story about the earning since, specifically earnings revisions,

289
00:15:20,520 --> 00:15:23,640
Speaker 1: because the earnings has to be properly revised and be

290
00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 1: set at the realistic level in order for us to

291
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:31,320
Speaker 1: pivot into the next is exactly what I was thinking.

292
00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:33,680
Speaker 1: You know, I get in trouble a lot here at work.

293
00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 1: He does with my wife legally, um, but I never

294
00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,840
Speaker 1: feel any better than when I've told everyone what I've done.

295
00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,160
Speaker 1: I've been completely open about it, and I can start

296
00:15:44,240 --> 00:15:46,920
Speaker 1: making amends. Then it's off to the races, right. That's

297
00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 1: kind of why I was hoping for a kitchen Sinc.

298
00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 1: What people call a kitchen Sinc. Quarter this earning season,

299
00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 1: but we haven't really seen that. Nonetheless, with the horrible, terrible,

300
00:15:56,720 --> 00:16:00,080
Speaker 1: no good year we had last year and equities and bonds,

301
00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:04,080
Speaker 1: maybe all the bad news is priced in, you know,

302
00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,280
Speaker 1: and it's it's a really good point, and I think

303
00:16:06,320 --> 00:16:09,280
Speaker 1: that that we have to separate the actual fourth quarter

304
00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 1: earnings from the earnings estimates. You know. It is really

305
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,720
Speaker 1: the forward looking projections that we need to be looking

306
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,600
Speaker 1: at because the fact is that the cost of running

307
00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 1: the businesses are high. And the high inflation on some

308
00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 1: level was really positive for many businesses because it allowed

309
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:31,080
Speaker 1: those broader profit margins. It was easier to be profitable

310
00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:34,240
Speaker 1: in the environment of higher inflation. But what it is

311
00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,680
Speaker 1: going to be going forward, and while the earnings are

312
00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 1: actually coming in mixed and positive in many ways, when

313
00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:43,320
Speaker 1: we're looking at the revisions when we're looking at the

314
00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,600
Speaker 1: new levels and the profit margins that are getting tight,

315
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,000
Speaker 1: you know in labor market is you know, is quite complex.

316
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,480
Speaker 1: You know. The issue is that what is the new normal?

317
00:16:52,600 --> 00:16:55,080
Speaker 1: What are the levels that are going to be realistic?

318
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,720
Speaker 1: Because in order for our companies here in the US

319
00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,760
Speaker 1: to be able to meet and exceed the earnings, you know,

320
00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 1: we have to be um, you know, adequately pricing them.

321
00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:06,359
Speaker 1: And therefore we think that they're going to be this

322
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:08,840
Speaker 1: you know, revisions that are going to be mostly to

323
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:11,600
Speaker 1: the negative and it will catch a lot of investors

324
00:17:11,600 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 1: by surprise. And we're expecting for this market to be

325
00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 1: worth before it gets better, you know. And I think

326
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,440
Speaker 1: that if we go into this market with that level

327
00:17:19,440 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 1: of an expectation and stay defensive and stay high quality

328
00:17:23,440 --> 00:17:26,280
Speaker 1: and focus on dividend being stocks, you know, will be

329
00:17:26,320 --> 00:17:29,560
Speaker 1: good to go for the next bull market when it's

330
00:17:29,720 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 1: when it gets here. Katarina, it talked us about fixed

331
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:36,240
Speaker 1: income here. I like income as much as the next person,

332
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:37,879
Speaker 1: and you know, I look at some of these I

333
00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,560
Speaker 1: can actually get a yield now in the fixed income market. Um,

334
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,080
Speaker 1: how do you think about bonds? What are you telling

335
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:47,520
Speaker 1: your clients about bonds. You got the year treasury at four. Well,

336
00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:50,400
Speaker 1: that's actually good news. You know, the environment last year

337
00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,080
Speaker 1: was challenging because for the first time in many years,

338
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:56,200
Speaker 1: both stocks and bonds were down at the same time

339
00:17:56,520 --> 00:17:58,960
Speaker 1: Dad was raising race. That was pressure on bonds. It

340
00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 1: was really difficult to invest in fixed income. It's a

341
00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 1: very different environment right now. Yields are actually high. You know,

342
00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:07,920
Speaker 1: how how many years have it been when we can

343
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,879
Speaker 1: get excited about what even the money markets are paying

344
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:14,440
Speaker 1: right not to mention the treasuries and you know, high

345
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,119
Speaker 1: quality corporates, you know, just well diversed about fixed income

346
00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,760
Speaker 1: portfolio right now is saying field in a significantly higher

347
00:18:21,840 --> 00:18:24,600
Speaker 1: that we had seen for years to investors that are

348
00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,199
Speaker 1: looking for yield, investors that are looking for safety, you know,

349
00:18:28,280 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 1: for this cushion in their portfolio. You know, this is

350
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,439
Speaker 1: the time where they're actually getting the value out of

351
00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,600
Speaker 1: their fixed income portion of their portfolio. You know. But

352
00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,440
Speaker 1: the diversification is the key on the fixed income site

353
00:18:39,480 --> 00:18:41,679
Speaker 1: as much as it is it's on the equities. I mean,

354
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 1: Paul is excited. He's in a genuinely good mood. He's

355
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 1: driving home every day in the BMW he switches serious

356
00:18:48,920 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 1: X time the yacht rock. You know. Uh, he's listening

357
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 1: to as much Michael McDonald as he can because he's

358
00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,119
Speaker 1: got those munis. And now he gets a chance to

359
00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 1: put all of his dry powder into fixed income, dividend

360
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: growing stocks, value stocks. This is a Paul Sweeney market

361
00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:07,240
Speaker 1: right now. Um, is this the do you think this

362
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:10,399
Speaker 1: is a chance to pounce? Like do we do? We

363
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:15,320
Speaker 1: look at this period of higher rates as you know, uh,

364
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,280
Speaker 1: once in a decade opportunity to get in or or

365
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: is this the new normal? Well? Absolutely, you know, investors

366
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,080
Speaker 1: for years we're saying, you know, if only rates where

367
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,720
Speaker 1: where they were years ago, you know, I would love

368
00:19:27,760 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 1: to have you know, like this, this in comportion of

369
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:33,440
Speaker 1: the portfolio, you know, and for in the zero rate

370
00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:37,000
Speaker 1: environment which we were in just recently, you know, that

371
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:39,360
Speaker 1: wasn't even a possibility. You know. So when you think

372
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 1: about the higher rates that we can enjoy in the

373
00:19:41,800 --> 00:19:45,359
Speaker 1: fixed income site, higher quality that we can enjoy, you know,

374
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: and and that risk management that comes with us coupled

375
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 1: with this amazing stock picking environment, So we do believe

376
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,920
Speaker 1: that the volatility is ahead, but it's not necessarily negative

377
00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,879
Speaker 1: because in this time of volatility. This is the time

378
00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 1: to pick great individual positions, defensive place, improve the quality

379
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 1: of the portfolio, stay within the sectors you know that

380
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,240
Speaker 1: will be the in our view, the leading sectors going forward,

381
00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:15,360
Speaker 1: like healthcare, like consumer stables and you know, utilities energy.

382
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,000
Speaker 1: You know, it might not be the same exact things

383
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:21,080
Speaker 1: that we've experienced in the possible market, you know, So

384
00:20:21,200 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 1: that rotation to quality to dividend ping stuff you know,

385
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: we think will serve the investors for many years to come.

386
00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,399
Speaker 1: What do you in your practice and Morgan Stanley in

387
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 1: the private wealth business, what do you guys do to

388
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:39,640
Speaker 1: attract younger investors? Um to Morgan Stanley, Well, I think

389
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 1: that the question with younger investors is, you know, where

390
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,080
Speaker 1: is why are we investing? You know, where is this

391
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 1: leading to? You know? And the the the young investors

392
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 1: have been dealing with so much risk and so much volatility,

393
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 1: you know, and they've been growing up in this market

394
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 1: being so volatile. You know. So the question here is

395
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:03,159
Speaker 1: to really than the time frame, you know, and developed

396
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 1: this habit of putting together the portfolio of high quality

397
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: place the individual positions that they can own for many

398
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 1: many years to come. You know that come with a

399
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: story that diversify, that that really gives them access to

400
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 1: every sector of the market, you know, but also that

401
00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:25,120
Speaker 1: that represents their personal values. I think that what differentiates

402
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 1: the young investor versus you know, some of the more

403
00:21:27,600 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: seasons investors is e s G in a place a

404
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: significantly higher role for our younger investors than for their

405
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 1: parents in many cases. All right, Katerina, great stuff, as always,

406
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: Katerina Seminetti. She's a senior vice president of the private

407
00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,160
Speaker 1: wealth advisor over at Morgan Stanley. Appreciate getting her perspective here.

408
00:21:47,720 --> 00:21:49,960
Speaker 1: I'm talking a little commodities, maybe talk a little bit coin.

409
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 1: Met you there, I do, all right, I want to

410
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 1: just talk Let's start with gold here. I mean, you know,

411
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 1: it's up almost six percent year today. Let's talk about that.

412
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,359
Speaker 1: So let's talk about commodities, cryptos, all that kind of stuff.

413
00:21:59,400 --> 00:22:01,880
Speaker 1: We can do that with Everett Milman, chief markets analysts

414
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 1: like Gainesville Coin. Give you one guest to where he's from.

415
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: All right, Everett, Let's start with gold here. He's in Gainesville,

416
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:11,760
Speaker 1: right somewhere in Florida. I think Truman says he's calling

417
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 1: in from Pennsylvania. All right, Everett, where are you Oh sorry, no,

418
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:20,160
Speaker 1: he said, Ricket Knights, sorry, Everett, where are you right now?

419
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 1: Just outside of Tampa, Florida? Actually so not Ga proper,

420
00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 1: but that part of the that part of the state alright.

421
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: Talked to us about commodities. What's going on here? What's

422
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 1: your call here? Per this year? Yeah, I think the

423
00:22:33,800 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: recent rally and gold has been spurred by the fact

424
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: that the dollar has softened up a little bit um

425
00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,120
Speaker 1: and we have some positive seasonality with the Chinese lunar

426
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:46,119
Speaker 1: New Year. I would expect some volatility surrounding the f

427
00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 1: MC decision this week, as interest rates are definitely one

428
00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:53,479
Speaker 1: of the big drivers for gold, but the fundamentals, the

429
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,920
Speaker 1: macro fundamentals for gold have not been this strong really

430
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: since the nineteen seventies UM, and far as I can tell,

431
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: it really doesn't matter what scenario we get from the

432
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: Fed UM if there is a pivot towards either pausing

433
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,480
Speaker 1: rate hikes or lowering rates, as seems to be the

434
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 1: market consensus sometime out in the next six twelve months.

435
00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 1: It's so weird every because you know, Paul was just saying, hey,

436
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 1: I can get you know, four and a quarter percent

437
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 1: on the two year yesterday we're talking Ted Oakley, right,

438
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: and he said, I have no problem being heavily in

439
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: cash because I get so much from three three month bills.

440
00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 1: Like you know, UM, when rates are this high, why

441
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 1: on earth would anybody want a pet rock that yields

442
00:23:37,480 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 1: nothing rather than you know, making generating income with with

443
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:47,080
Speaker 1: fixed income. It is a fair question, obviously, UM, that

444
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: is a gold main competitor in terms of what what

445
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: class in misters does it appeal to? What goals are

446
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,720
Speaker 1: you trying to reach in terms of wealth preservation rather

447
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: than UM looking to hit a home run. But I

448
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,800
Speaker 1: will say that even if the Fed remains hawkish and

449
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 1: perhaps keeps monetary policy too restrictive, and we do see

450
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,480
Speaker 1: rates remain higher for longer, that's probably going to cause

451
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: some pain and other you know, parts of the riskier

452
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 1: parts of markets. And that's where gold safe haven characteristics

453
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 1: kick in UM. And we have seen that treasuries have

454
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: experienced quite a bit of volatility UM really since the pandemic.

455
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,640
Speaker 1: So I think that that lends gold some added credibility

456
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: as as a non correlated alternative asset UM, even though obviously,

457
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 1: as you say, a fixed income is going to essentially

458
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 1: be doing the same things that investors look for from

459
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 1: goal is that why bitcoin is has rallied as well.

460
00:24:43,240 --> 00:24:46,440
Speaker 1: I mean, we're back up at twenty three dollars and

461
00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: as rates rise. UM. Well, first of all, after the

462
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 1: collapse of f t X and it's pretty embarrassing bankruptcies

463
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:58,760
Speaker 1: across the crypto universe, and then with rising rates. Why

464
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:02,880
Speaker 1: why I don't get it? Uh, you know, it's kind

465
00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:06,679
Speaker 1: of tough to explain really a reasonable explanation for anything

466
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: that goes on in the cryptocurrency market at this point,

467
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: given how speculative they remain. UM. But I think kind

468
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 1: of strangely we've seen that as a flight to safety

469
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: of sorts that Bitcoin and ethereum have really rebounded and

470
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 1: led the way as retail investors have largely shunned much

471
00:25:25,280 --> 00:25:27,680
Speaker 1: of the alts coin market. UM. So you could look

472
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,159
Speaker 1: at that of a flight to safety. UM. Overall, UH

473
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 1: transaction on chain transaction volumes have been relatively stable in crypto.

474
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: So as you say, with all of these bankruptcy and scandals,

475
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:43,919
Speaker 1: that hasn't completely tanked UH confidence in the broader market.

476
00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: But clearly, UH, some type of regulation and oversight isn't

477
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:52,120
Speaker 1: necessary evil here, particularly if crypto exchanges and crypto based

478
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 1: lenders are going to continue to engage in what amounts

479
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,240
Speaker 1: to banking behaviors. UM. They really can't do that unless

480
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 1: they are registered and regular aided, and obviously that is

481
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,360
Speaker 1: something that they have greatly resisted up to this point. Hey,

482
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:07,800
Speaker 1: every what's the relationship between gold and so as? Again,

483
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: golds up about five or six percent this year and

484
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,880
Speaker 1: all silvers down about one So historically, how do investors

485
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: look at those two things together? So the divergence there

486
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:23,200
Speaker 1: is mainly because silver has more industrial properties that kind

487
00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 1: of decouple it from the performance of gold. As you

488
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: pointed out, we've seen silver lagging behind UM. Right now,

489
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: the gold is silver ratio is about eighty to one,

490
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:37,160
Speaker 1: which has remained elevated for several years. That maybe perhaps

491
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: the new normal, but I wouldn't be surprised by some

492
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: mean regression where that ratio of gold gold price and

493
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: silver price comes back closer to its longer run average

494
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 1: of about six one. We do, yes, and we do

495
00:26:50,760 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: see that not only UM is silver demand rising in

496
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 1: the East, particularly UM in Asia with China and India,

497
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: but there are still a major tale wins for just

498
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: general silver demand from an industrial standpoint, um, like continued,

499
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: from my standpoint, it looks like one of the most

500
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 1: undervalued assets on the market. I there's nothing I love

501
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,400
Speaker 1: more than a post apocalyptic movie with like Kevin Costner,

502
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: you know, or Will Smith. There's one right now I

503
00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:21,159
Speaker 1: can't remember the name of on Apple TV, only the

504
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:26,080
Speaker 1: first two episodes in. But all of these uh scenarios

505
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 1: involved using gold or gas or maybe bitcoin. Does any

506
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,480
Speaker 1: of that actually drive investment or is that just a

507
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 1: fun way to look at things? Ever? Because I can't

508
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 1: imagine that, um you know, if uh, if this hugely

509
00:27:40,720 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 1: leveraged giant debt construct collapses, that will be like um,

510
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 1: you know, melting down gold bars and spending it at

511
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 1: the next cave over right, right, And certainly in a

512
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:57,920
Speaker 1: in a scenario where the financial system is in dire streets,

513
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 1: the infrastructure to can duct to normal commerce would would

514
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 1: be impaired in that situation, it seems unreasonable or unlikely

515
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 1: that we would actually hit that scenario. But to the

516
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,800
Speaker 1: first point in your question, Um, in my experience, it's

517
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:18,040
Speaker 1: undeniable that that sentiment or narrative surrounding UM, the perceived

518
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 1: riskiness of the leveraging markets that does drive quite a

519
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:26,199
Speaker 1: bit of interest in gold, precious metals and then alternatives

520
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,800
Speaker 1: like cryptocurrency. But I have to admit that UM in

521
00:28:29,960 --> 00:28:33,199
Speaker 1: terms of utility or use cases, uh, in a in

522
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,240
Speaker 1: a sort of financial collapse scenario, I think you would

523
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 1: be just as well off with canned foods, ammunition, those

524
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 1: types of essentials UM, just like commodity of like gold.

525
00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff. Everett Millman. He's a chief market

526
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: analyst at Gainesville Coins. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

527
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with

528
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller.

529
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,959
Speaker 1: I'm Twitter at Matt Miller seventy three. I'm fall Sweeney.

530
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,640
Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you

531
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio