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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? They're all for running a gay so smooth,

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid sisting just glorious. Ex procution, guys, all

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Speaker 1: I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand percent

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Speaker 1: of the time.

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Speaker 2: How shot with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind, buddy, and that's why you see your

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Speaker 3: beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them. Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 1: The one it's left to of the wide eyed drill bibus,

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Speaker 1: How on Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 3: Hello and welcome to Wondergul, the soccer betting podcast from

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Speaker 3: the Action Network. My name is Michael Liba and joining

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Speaker 3: me as always Action colleagues BJ Cunningham and Anthony Debundo,

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Speaker 3: and today the three of us will take you on

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Speaker 3: a handicapping adventure across all of Europe. Will mostly be

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Speaker 3: focused on the Premier League, but don't worry, we will

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Speaker 3: touch on some Bundesliga, some league uh Syria. But we

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Speaker 3: will start in La Liga with the match of the weekend,

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Speaker 3: the Madrid derby Real Madrid plus one ten at home

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Speaker 3: at the Bernabau taking on Atletico Madrid, who are plus

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Speaker 3: two to fifty five on the road. The draw is

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Speaker 3: sitting at plus two to fifty. This is a three

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Speaker 3: pm kickoff on Sunday afternoon, and gentlemen, it has to

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Speaker 3: be set. This Athletico team on the Diego Simeoni. Everybody

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Speaker 3: loves to hate them, but I think we just need

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Speaker 3: to start respecting them as betters. And there are so

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Speaker 3: many teams in European soccer. We can approach most of

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Speaker 3: them the same way, but Atletico is just different. I

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Speaker 3: think we should start to appreciate that as better. This

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Speaker 3: is a team who are masters in shitt housery. We

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Speaker 3: saw what they did in the Champions League to advance.

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Speaker 3: Players were in tears, everyone's head was in their hands

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Speaker 3: all game. People were flopping, other people were fighting. It

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Speaker 3: was truly like an opera of shittousari, and that stuff

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Speaker 3: can work some times if you have the talent to

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Speaker 3: back it up, which Atletico do. Meanwhile, Real Madrid they

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Speaker 3: have a ten point lead on at Letti in La Liga,

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Speaker 3: so if Diego Simioni's crew wants a chance to even

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Speaker 3: be relevant in the title race in LaLiga, they need

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Speaker 3: to win this one. I do think there's value on

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Speaker 3: Atletico here. Two fifty five seems like a good enough

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Speaker 3: number their team that I want to kind of get behind.

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Speaker 3: Now I'm just giving up on the numbers with them,

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Speaker 3: and I'm just backing them for who they are, for

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Speaker 3: who Diego Simeoni is as a manager. So now let

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Speaker 3: me bring in my two friends. But we'll start with you, BJ.

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Speaker 3: Is it Atletico? Is it Real Madrid? Is it maybe

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Speaker 3: the draw over under where you're going for the Madrid derby? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid is becoming almost like an auto fade given

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Speaker 1: how much they're overperforming, and I think this is a

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Speaker 1: great spot for Athletico to pick them off and at

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Speaker 1: least get a draw. You talk about, you know, Athletico,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe we need to a start respecting the more.

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Speaker 1: Their numbers in La League are actually pretty good, only

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Speaker 1: ero point eight to one expected goes allowed per match.

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Speaker 1: They have a plus point sixty three non penalty expected

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Speaker 1: goal differential, which is actually the best mark in Spain

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Speaker 1: right now. They're also first defensively in shots loud per

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Speaker 1: ninety they scoring chances allowed centries loud. So it's still

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Speaker 1: a really really good Diego Simioni defense. Now, you know,

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Speaker 1: in the Champions League, they had to down two center backs.

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Speaker 1: They had to play Versalco and Cumbia you know, alongside

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Speaker 1: each other. So if they have to do it in

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Speaker 1: this match again, that's a little troublesome, giving me some worries.

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Speaker 1: But we don't know the status of Cream Benzema right now.

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Speaker 1: He could be coming back for Real Madrid, but if

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Speaker 1: he's out, that's going to be a big problem for

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Speaker 1: Real Madrid. I really with this type of matchup. I

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Speaker 1: like to look at teams that play similar styles to

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Speaker 1: Athletico Madrid, and bill Bao is almost like a carbon

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Speaker 1: copy of what Athletico tries to do. They played the

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Speaker 1: exact same formation, very defensive, looking to hit people on

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Speaker 1: the counter. And bill Bau just played Real Madrid, you know,

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Speaker 1: about a week and a half ago and put up

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Speaker 1: two point eight expected goals against them. We've talked about

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Speaker 1: the ree A Madrid defense. It's really really bad right now,

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Speaker 1: especially giving up big scoring chances. They've allowed the fifth

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Speaker 1: most in La Liga, while Athletico Madrid has created the

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Speaker 1: third most big scoring chances. So this is a good

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Speaker 1: spot for Athletic go to pick off Real Madrid. I

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Speaker 1: will be monitoring if Kreem Benzema is in there, Athletico

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Speaker 1: is down to center backs. It might be a pass

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Speaker 1: for me, especially if it's a juicy plus half a goal.

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Speaker 1: But at the time of saving this, if cream Benzma's out,

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Speaker 1: I do like Athletico plus half a goal at minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty five.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it just doesn't matter who's in and who's out.

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Speaker 3: For Athletico Madrid, Diego SIMIONI will get them to play

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Speaker 3: a bandit style of soccer and so it just works.

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Speaker 3: It seems to get under the skin of their opposition

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Speaker 3: no matter who's down, what their you know, the stakes

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Speaker 3: are for them or the mountain that they need to climb.

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Speaker 3: They were definitely underdogs to advance out of the group

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Speaker 3: today with Milan playing what was supposed to be depleted

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Speaker 3: Liverpool team and they don't get the job done. Atletico

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Speaker 3: does against Porto in a game that they were it

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Speaker 3: was basically a pick them on the road. So like

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Speaker 3: I'm just tipping my cap here, and like you said,

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Speaker 3: we as a podcast, I think like to go against

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Speaker 3: Real Madrid because they are over performers relative to their

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Speaker 3: underlying metrics, and that's why I'm gonna stick with Simeoni here.

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Speaker 3: Anthony Year, me and BJ I think bet on Athletico

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Speaker 3: Madrid more often than you do. I think it's fair

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Speaker 3: to say you like to call it, you know, Simeoni, luckbox,

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Speaker 3: whatever it is. Where are you going with this one?

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Speaker 3: And why aren't you ever able to get behind the

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Speaker 3: set Letty team?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, stick the knife in for their turnment

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Speaker 2: plus two ninety two advance on Porto from before the

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Speaker 2: group stage up in flames could not even get a

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Speaker 2: draw at home, embarrassing from Leeddrego's. But that being said,

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Speaker 2: you know, when we go back to last year La Liga,

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Speaker 2: Atletico Madrid won the league with a plus point five

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Speaker 2: to two expected goal difference. So far this year they

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Speaker 2: have a plus point six to two per ninety goal difference.

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Speaker 2: So think about that. They're actually playing at a higher

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Speaker 2: level in terms of creating chances and allowing chances. And

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Speaker 2: yet you know they're ten points off Real Madrid. That's

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Speaker 2: how much Real Madrid is vastly overperforming their expected goals.

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Speaker 2: I haven't decided if I want to get in on

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Speaker 2: here on a letti because I hate betting them, because

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Speaker 2: I do not like Diego Simone and I tend to

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Speaker 2: you know, look to bet against them quite a bit

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Speaker 2: when they're overvalued as a favorite in La Liga, and

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure, like Bja mentioned with the status of

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Speaker 2: Karen Benzema, both teams have some attacking regression coming. You know,

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Speaker 2: it's not just Real that's overperforming, but Adleti's score twenty

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Speaker 2: seven goals from twenty one expected as well. Their defense

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Speaker 2: is actually leaking more goals than usual. They haven't been

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Speaker 2: the traditional overperform their expected goals allowed team that they've

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Speaker 2: done for the last five six years. So right now

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Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. Both teams to score. Was

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Speaker 2: another look I had. It's a little bit too steep

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Speaker 2: for me to play at minus one thirty, so I

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Speaker 2: think it's probably end up being a stay away with

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Speaker 2: the lean towards Atletico Madrid that will move on to

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Speaker 2: the Premier League.

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Speaker 3: We have a Friday afternoon kickoff. Great news for all

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Speaker 3: of us here Friday Night Lights three pm Eastern Time,

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Speaker 3: Brentford plus one to fifteen hosting Watford at plus two

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Speaker 3: sixty the draws plus two thirty five. I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 3: the last time Brentford hosted the Friday night Premier League

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Speaker 3: game was Opening Day when they pulled one over on Arsenal,

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Speaker 3: which we all backed, so good memories there. I want

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Speaker 3: to get behind Watford here actually, just because Brentford is

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Speaker 3: dealing with a little bit of an injury crisis again.

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Speaker 3: Ivan Tony Sergei Kanos are both out. It looks like

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Speaker 3: they've not been one hundred percent for quite some time. However,

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Speaker 3: this defense has been real.

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Speaker 1: It's been good.

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Speaker 3: It's trending down a little bit, but it's been good

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Speaker 3: enough and against the team like Watford have been pretty

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Speaker 3: good going forward. I don't think it's going to be

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Speaker 3: too much of a problem. So it's right now it's

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Speaker 3: Watford or nothing. If this number ticks up, I think

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Speaker 3: I would play Watford BJ. What do you have for

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Speaker 3: this one?

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Speaker 1: I actually do like Bradford. I understand that ivan Tony's out,

162
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Speaker 1: but he hasn't really provided much in terms of goal

163
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Speaker 1: scoring this season. Only has four goals in about you know,

164
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Speaker 1: I think about fourteen appearances. His non penalty expected goal

165
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Speaker 1: per nine EMUs scoring rate is only point one four,

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Speaker 1: which is in the bottom five percent of the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: So he's not providing much in terms of goal scoring.

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Speaker 1: What he does provide is he's very good in the air.

169
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Speaker 1: He's really good at assisting his teammates to get sixteen

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Speaker 1: passes that have led to a shot this season, so

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Speaker 1: m Boemu and Weissa will probably be the two man

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Speaker 1: up top. West has been pretty good in limited action

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Speaker 1: for Bradford, so I don't think the goal scoring is

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Speaker 1: going to take a huge dip without Tony in there.

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Speaker 1: I mean it didn't take a dip against Leeds this

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Speaker 1: past weekend when he was out. I understand that Watford

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Speaker 1: has played the most difficult schedule in the Premier League

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Speaker 1: the last two months, but they're still dead last in

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Speaker 1: non penalty expected goals allowed. And the biggest thing in

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Speaker 1: this one is that Watford is horrendous against pressure and

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Speaker 1: Brentford loves to play a heavy metal style football, pressing

182
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Speaker 1: quite a bit their seventh and passes per defensive actions,

183
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Speaker 1: so Watford is going to have some trouble trying to

184
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Speaker 1: move the ball forward. Brentford doesn't allow you get off

185
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Speaker 1: very many shots, only twelve point one shots per ninety low,

186
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Speaker 1: which is the fifth best mark in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: The biggest thing though, is that even though Brentford has

188
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Speaker 1: their injury crisis, Watford is kind of dealing with one themselves.

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Speaker 1: Ismael asar is going to be out for this one.

190
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Speaker 1: He's pretty much their best attacking player. Then starting goalkeeper

191
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Speaker 1: Ben Foster's out. They're also down to defenders. So whatever

192
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Speaker 1: Tony and the other guys out for Brentford, you know,

193
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Speaker 1: it kind of cancels out if Sar is out for Watford.

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Speaker 1: So I have Brentford projected at minus one fifty there.

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Speaker 1: I expected goal differential is way way better than Watford's

196
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Speaker 1: right now, so I think there is some value on

197
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Speaker 1: them at plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and we mentioned that the last podcast Watford's expected

199
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Speaker 3: goals against numbers under Clardio Ranieri they're hard to even

200
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Speaker 3: look at because, yeah, it's fourteen point one expected goes

201
00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:56,920
Speaker 3: allowed over their last seven games. But when you consider

202
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Speaker 3: the opposition playing consecutively against Chelsea Liverpool, at Manchester City,

203
00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,640
Speaker 3: Leicester City, Everden in Southampton, it's kind of hard to

204
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Speaker 3: know what this defense actually is going to look like

205
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Speaker 3: under Renieri. Against teams like Brentford, which are the teams

206
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Speaker 3: that Watford will be competing with in that bottom third

207
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Speaker 3: of the Premier League. There's a lot to kind of

208
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Speaker 3: dig into here, and the numbers just not good enough

209
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Speaker 3: for me. Which brings Saturday morning Manchester City minus six

210
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Speaker 3: hundred favorites. They're hosting Wolverhampton who are fifteen to one.

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Speaker 3: The draw is seven seven thirty am kickoff. Wolves talk

212
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Speaker 3: about a tough run of opposition. Wolves. They lost to

213
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Speaker 3: Liverpool last weekend on a very late last guest winner

214
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Speaker 3: from the Reds and now they got to play Manchester

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Speaker 3: City on the road. We know that this Wolves team

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Speaker 3: is good, like, there's no denying that they are a

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Speaker 3: top half caliber team. I think maybe a little higher

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Speaker 3: than that if they can get some semblance of form

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Speaker 3: inconsistency over the next couple months. But the City team

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Speaker 3: is a wagon right now. Two point six y five

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Speaker 3: expectacles allowed total over the last five games, all of

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Speaker 3: which are wins. That's zero point five to three on average.

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Speaker 3: Wolves struggle to get anything going against Liverpool, so it's

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Speaker 3: pretty tough to back here. The number is large enough

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Speaker 3: I think to be interesting, but I actually think it's

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Speaker 3: either under maybe a draw play here because City we

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Speaker 3: talk about all the time. City's defense is fantastic. Wolves

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Speaker 3: has a pretty good defense themselves. It should be a

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Speaker 3: pretty low event game, which is a recipe for the draw,

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Speaker 3: But I would think I'm going to go under maybe

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Speaker 3: a sprinkle in the draw, Anthony, what about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they didn't complete a single pass into the penalty

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Speaker 2: area against Liverpool. Pretty concerning. Nor did they complete a

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Speaker 2: pass in the penalty area against Liverpool. That's the second

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Speaker 2: time this year that's happened. We talked about this a

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Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. The Wolves attacking regression has come

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Speaker 2: and they are now have the second fewest goals in

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Speaker 2: the league. They have the fifth worst expected goals for

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Speaker 2: in the league. The Bruneo Lage revolution appears to be

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Speaker 2: fizzling a little bit here. There's just not a ton

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Speaker 2: I like about this Wolve's attack. Now that being said,

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Speaker 2: we play numbers here, not necessarily teams, and the number

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Speaker 2: seems a little cheap to me. When City hosted Norwich

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Speaker 2: at the beginning of the season, I remember because I

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Speaker 2: bet it and lost nor It's both teams to score

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Speaker 2: against Wolves with plus one fifty. That's the same number

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Speaker 2: you're getting here. Wolves team total over is plus one forty.

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Speaker 2: I think if I play anything here, that's where I'm

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Speaker 2: going to be looking to go. It's just a good

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Speaker 2: by low spot on a Wolves attack that I do

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Speaker 2: not expect to be in the bottom five come season end.

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Speaker 2: I understand that City has the best defense in the league.

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Speaker 2: I understand their dominant Hopefully Wolves can find a little

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Speaker 2: bit more, you know, make some changes here and get

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Speaker 2: a chance at a goal here, and I think at

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Speaker 2: plus one forty, I'm willing to potentially take a look

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Speaker 2: at that. But I want to see if if Bruno's

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Speaker 2: going to switch up to the lineup a little bit,

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Speaker 2: maybe rotates some players in flange Chen has really struggled

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Speaker 2: to get anything going. A domitore, whether he's come off

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Speaker 2: the bench or he's started, has not been very effective

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Speaker 2: like we've seen he was early in the season with

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Speaker 2: you know, at one point, I think formatch into the year,

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Speaker 2: he was number one in shot creating actions. So a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a by low spot on the Wolves attack,

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Speaker 2: but the Wolves defense has also been a bit lucky

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Speaker 2: as well, and so you know, City could easily pummel them.

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Speaker 2: Liverpool did create over to expected goal was that game,

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Speaker 2: even though they they didn't quite finish. We saw Jota

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Speaker 2: missed an open net with two defenders blocking it off

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Speaker 2: the line, so there was a lot of weird flooky

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Speaker 2: stuff that happened in that game. Liverpool wasn't quite as sharp.

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Speaker 2: They had some attackum aggression. Coming City doesn't really fit

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Speaker 2: that bill necessarily, and I think they could get pumbled here.

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Speaker 2: But I do think at plus one forty Wolves to

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Speaker 2: score a goal maybe a little undervalued.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the handicap when you're looking at a

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Speaker 3: total here is because Wolves going to score it, right

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Speaker 3: and I think you're going the other way.

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Speaker 1: Huh Yeah, I'm going to go on underd three goals

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Speaker 1: in minus tweter five. This is kind of a numbers

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Speaker 1: play for me. I only have two point four to

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Speaker 1: five goals projected. The biggest thing is what I was

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Speaker 1: interested to see how Wolves would play against Liverpool is

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Speaker 1: how their pressing number is going to be. And only

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Speaker 1: ten percent of their presses came in the final third,

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Speaker 1: so really what they did is they just sat back,

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Speaker 1: played very deep and pressed Liverpool once they crossed halfway line. Now,

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Speaker 1: it didn't really work because, like Anthony said, Liverpool created

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Speaker 1: over two expected goals. They had forty two touches in

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Speaker 1: Wolves penalty area and that's pretty concerning going to play

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Speaker 1: Manchester City. But for a team that is used to

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Speaker 1: playing that type of style that can sit deep and play,

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Speaker 1: you know, basically play that way, and then you know

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Speaker 1: it's not a team like, for example, like west Ham

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Speaker 1: or some team or Arsenal who's used to having the

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Speaker 1: ball and not used to being pinned into their own

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Speaker 1: defensive area for the whole match. Wolves is used to

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Speaker 1: playing like that, so they could slug this match out,

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Speaker 1: drag it out as long as they can. Basically how

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Speaker 1: they did against Liverpool. City's been much more direct than

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Speaker 1: their tax They're not as like, you know, slow, possessive

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Speaker 1: type team like they were last year. But when you

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Speaker 1: play a team that's not going to press you up high,

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Speaker 1: that's going to sit back and just press you in

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Speaker 1: the final third, it can't make the match a little

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Speaker 1: bit sluggish. It can make it kind of slow, especially

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Speaker 1: if they're going to sit that deep in the box.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to back under three goals and minus

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Speaker 1: one oh five. Again, it's a numbers play, and I

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Speaker 1: do think that Wolves can slow this match down enough.

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Speaker 1: And City will, you know, not have as much high

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Speaker 1: quality chances as Liverpool did, but you know, who knows,

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Speaker 1: City could you know, pace them for nothing. But I

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Speaker 1: can easily see the city winning one nothing or two

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Speaker 1: nothing In this one.

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Speaker 3: Arsenal minus one fifty five at home against Southampton plus

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Speaker 3: four twenty five the drop plus three ten ten am

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Speaker 3: kickoff on Saturday morning. The Arsenal roller coaster continues. It's ride.

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Speaker 3: I don't really understand how a team that has been

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Speaker 3: so close to the top four but seemingly like two

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, but it obviously was a little longer. But

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Speaker 3: it really just feels like it was just yesterday that

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Speaker 3: everyone was talking that Michel Arteta, including myself, the revolution

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Speaker 3: had finally started to bear fruit. And then in comes

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Speaker 3: to Maori Gray and out goes Arsenal from Goodison Park

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Speaker 3: with zero points on Monday against a ever the team

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Speaker 3: that had it once in September, and now look at

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Speaker 3: what's going on. I think this number on Southampton is fantastic.

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Speaker 3: Plus four twenty five money line on a good team,

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Speaker 3: A team that much better than I expected. When I

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Speaker 3: say good team, I mean relative to expectations. Obviously, this

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Speaker 3: is a team that could finish anywhere from like eight

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Speaker 3: to fourteenth. I don't think would be surprising. But there's

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Speaker 3: seventh in terms of expectacles for and Arsenal's defense is

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Speaker 3: not that good at preventing scoring chances. So I think

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Speaker 3: there's gonna be an opportunity here for Southampton to come

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Speaker 3: away with three points. It just depends on if they

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Speaker 3: take those chances. When the Saints go marching in, I

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Speaker 3: think we're all going to be marching with the Saints.

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Speaker 3: That's my inkling here, Anthony, Are you going to be

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Speaker 3: marching with me?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Saints here definitely undervalued. It's a good bounce back

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Speaker 2: spot for Arsenal and that's been like the common tam

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Speaker 2: with them after these bad performances they you know, are

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Speaker 2: Teta comes and says, you know, we're going to bounce back.

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Speaker 2: Not buying it here, I don't really like the matchup.

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Speaker 2: First of all, the ability of Southampton's press to give

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Speaker 2: Arsenal problems in possession. Those are the teams who can

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Speaker 2: effectively press and win the ball of Arsenal. They tend

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Speaker 2: to be the top teams in the league. They tend

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Speaker 2: to be the Liverpools, the Cities, the Chelseas, in some

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Speaker 2: cases Brighton. The teams who can establish that have given

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Speaker 2: Arsenal fits this year. Chelsea played them off the park,

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Speaker 2: Brighton played them off the park, couldn't find a goal

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Speaker 2: Liverpool City. We all know what happened in those high

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Speaker 2: profile games, but Southampton can kind of do the similar

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Speaker 2: types of things. One thing, Southampton's very vulnerable against big

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Speaker 2: scoring chances. Arsenal eleventh and big scoring chances. Obama Yang

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Speaker 2: and Lacazette are both out of form, both in decline

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Speaker 2: based on pretty much every number you look at. I

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Speaker 2: don't really trust the Arsenal at ten to get margin,

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Speaker 2: which is what they'd have to do to cover the

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Speaker 2: plus one, so it's a little juicy, but I like

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Speaker 2: Southampton plus one at minus one, twenty five, one thirty.

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Speaker 2: You find both out there like after one forty. Southampton's

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Speaker 2: defense has also when they're not conceding big scoring chances,

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Speaker 2: they're only conceding the fewest shots in the league for

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Speaker 2: ninety so pretty solid defensive numbers. I think they're able

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Speaker 2: to keep this game close. I think it's a really

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Speaker 2: Arsenal's rightly favored, but I think it's very hard to

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Speaker 2: see how Arsenal gets margin here against Southampton, who is

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Speaker 2: still not finishing their chance as well at all.

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Speaker 3: BJ you are in Arsenal tragic here on this podcast,

375
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Speaker 3: someone who roots for Arsenal with his heart, bets against

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Speaker 3: Arsenal quite often with his wallet. Are you doing it again?

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm done with Arteta this. I just can't take

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Speaker 1: it anymore. I mean, I don't really know what he's

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Speaker 1: trying to do, and especially with our defense because essentially

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Speaker 1: he's putting so much pressure on Gabrielle and Ben White

381
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Speaker 1: to be incredibly illeguish. They've played very well this season,

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Speaker 1: but granted Shock is back, which is horrible for Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: Party has been out of form. You know, Tierney got

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Speaker 1: a good run out and last match, but the problem

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Speaker 1: with Arsenal is that they don't press. And so when

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Speaker 1: you have a team that is very reliant on having

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Speaker 1: a ball, very reliant getting up to Oda guard to

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Speaker 1: Sokka to be able to create chances, and then you know,

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Speaker 1: obviously like Anthony's set up on my Young and Lackazett

390
00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 1: are incredibly out of form playing a team like Southampton

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Speaker 1: that's just gonna press, press, press you with the whole

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Speaker 1: match and try to win the ball. Once they do

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Speaker 1: win the ball, they're gonna put pressure on Gabrielle and

394
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Speaker 1: Ben White and force them to be elite once again

395
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Speaker 1: and obviously that's just not gonna work over the long term.

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Speaker 1: So I'm done with Arteta. I don't really under I

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Speaker 1: don't know, he's not the guy to lead us into

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Speaker 1: the future. But I agree with Anthony everything Anthony said. Arsenal,

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Speaker 1: especially offensively, is not gonna be able to create those

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Speaker 1: big scoring chances. That Southampton is very susceptible to Arsenal

401
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:44,960
Speaker 1: just is overvalued. It's a name, it's a name played

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Speaker 1: overvalue here. I only have Arsenal projected at plus one

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Speaker 1: oh five, So I agree with you guys, we're gonna

404
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:50,919
Speaker 1: make it three or three. I like Southampton plus one

405
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Speaker 1: at mis one thirty.

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Speaker 2: I mean, think about how bad Everton has been, sorry Michael,

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Speaker 2: and how they had not won a match in what

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Speaker 2: two months? They could have had four. I mean there

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Speaker 2: were two actual goals and then they were like a

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Speaker 2: toenail and a shoulder blade from having four and just

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Speaker 2: running Arsenal off the pitch. And so I know that

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Speaker 2: every time Arsenal seems to be on the come up,

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Speaker 2: it's a good time to fade them. I'm not playing

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Speaker 2: the bounce back angle here.

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Speaker 1: They completely lost control of that match. I really just

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Speaker 1: don't understand what they were doing in the second half,

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Speaker 1: and it's you know, they're just not the team that

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Speaker 1: can sit deep and defend like you know a Burnley

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Speaker 1: and play two low blocks and you know basically defend

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Speaker 1: like fend like heal for you know, the final forty

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Speaker 1: five minutes to see a match out. They're just not

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Speaker 1: that stylent team. They have to have the ball, they

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Speaker 1: have to have it moving forward and you know, Everton,

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Speaker 1: you know, was able to control most of that second half,

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Speaker 1: which was kind of shocking to me.

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Speaker 2: But you know, most the most interesting thing, the most

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Speaker 2: interesting thing with Arsenal is that they do come out

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Speaker 2: and like try to press it seems like early in games,

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Speaker 2: and then it either works and they score an early

430
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 2: goal and then stop, or it doesn't work and they

431
00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 2: still stop, and then they just completely fall apart. Because

432
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:58,240
Speaker 2: we said this on the podcast, but the first twenty

433
00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:00,680
Speaker 2: minutes of games they actually haven't been bad. Even against Everton,

434
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,480
Speaker 2: I thought they were solid the first ten, fifteen, twenty

435
00:19:02,520 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 2: minutes and then Everton just had a period where they

436
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,400
Speaker 2: were pretty much in the ascendency. He scored the goal,

437
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 2: got vard off and then against the run of play,

438
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 2: Arsenal against their goal. But really it's very strange why

439
00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 2: Arsenal can't seem to keep a game plan for ninety

440
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,439
Speaker 2: minutes and at least try impress because they I mean,

441
00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 2: they have guys who could win the ball. Guys like

442
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:19,400
Speaker 2: Jaka and Party can win the ball off off other

443
00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 2: teams and you know, cover some ground. I actually thought

444
00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,080
Speaker 2: Jaca played decently well in the last match, but it's

445
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 2: just so up and down with this team and trying

446
00:19:26,080 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 2: to bet them to get margin against a pretty solid

447
00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:30,360
Speaker 2: Southampton team is not a good look.

448
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, I mean this is this is Michael Arteta

449
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,880
Speaker 1: at his core, because he's a Pep GUARDI old disciple,

450
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,919
Speaker 1: and he thinks he can just change his tactics from

451
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,160
Speaker 1: match to match without anyconsistency and you know, basically play

452
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 1: like Manchester City. Well that's just doesn't happen. I mean,

453
00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:44,720
Speaker 1: Arsenal's not good enough to do that. He's a stick

454
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 1: with the same tactics and something that actually works and

455
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:49,359
Speaker 1: do that going forward. But he's not. He thinks he's

456
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 1: smarter than everybody else. And I really hope that at

457
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 1: the end of this year, the Kronkeys, if they're actually

458
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,159
Speaker 1: paying attention to what's going on, really look at him

459
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 1: and really look at Denhog over at Ias and potentially

460
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 1: try to bring him in.

461
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,440
Speaker 3: Another man who thinks he's smarter than everyone else because

462
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:06,840
Speaker 3: he is smarter than everyone else is Marcelo Bielsa. He's

463
00:20:06,920 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 3: leading Leeds. They're nine to one underdogs at Chelsea who

464
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 3: are minus three thirty on the money line at Stanford Bridge.

465
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,919
Speaker 3: The draw sitting at five to one ten am kickoff

466
00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 3: on Saturday. Chelsea two two and one in their last five,

467
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 3: including in the Premier League. They obviously had the draw

468
00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,040
Speaker 3: with zenit today. That means they're also traveling back from

469
00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 3: Saint Petersburg, so something to keep in mind here. I

470
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,160
Speaker 3: think this handicap, similar to the walls one, is coming

471
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 3: down to do you think Leeds can score? If you do,

472
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,200
Speaker 3: you could look to back a Legion Nighted team that

473
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,320
Speaker 3: is good going forward. I guess a Chelsea team that

474
00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 3: we've talked about has had defensive regression coming for them.

475
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,639
Speaker 3: It's it's come at the hands of teams that we

476
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,639
Speaker 3: didn't think it would come at, including Zen at Saint Petersburg.

477
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 3: But it is a whibble here for Chelsea, there's no

478
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 3: denying it. Like I said, two two in one win

479
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 3: draw loss in the last five. I would look at

480
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:53,879
Speaker 3: Leeds here. I don't think I'm going to back them,

481
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 3: but maybe a team total over at minus one twenty

482
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 3: because I do think that they can get on the

483
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,960
Speaker 3: board against a team that should be leg coming back

484
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 3: from Mother Russia. Anthony, what about you?

485
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: You know, a lot of people told me that Edward

486
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: Mendy was the best goalie in the world, and look,

487
00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 2: he was damn good in the first six to seven

488
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: games where he was bailing out what was a pretty

489
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 2: mediocre in Chelsea defense. Then Chelsea went through a period

490
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 2: of complete dominance and it was when Kante was healthy,

491
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 2: Trginio was healthy, Chilwell was playing really well at left back,

492
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:25,440
Speaker 2: wheeched James really blossomed as a two way wing back

493
00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,320
Speaker 2: in that system. And look, Chelsea was playing like the

494
00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,119
Speaker 2: best team in the league for a few weeks. But

495
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,119
Speaker 2: the next wabble has come here for Thomas Tuckle's men.

496
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 2: Edward Mendy now for the season has plus point one

497
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 2: post shot expected goals. That was that was last season.

498
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 2: This year he is now still up there as among

499
00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:45,360
Speaker 2: the best, but we saw now he's down a plus

500
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,280
Speaker 2: two point one at one point he was well over three,

501
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,120
Speaker 2: so the regression has come. I know he didn't start

502
00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:53,159
Speaker 2: against Zenate when they conceded three goals, and that factors

503
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,399
Speaker 2: in here. But Tuckle mentioned this after the game and

504
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 2: it was something they talked about that. You know, it

505
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 2: seems like Mendy's lost his confidence a little bit, and

506
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: I think that was evident in what happened in the

507
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 2: west Ham game last week, the two goals that were conceded.

508
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,600
Speaker 2: I think Mendy would like to have back, and goalkeepers

509
00:22:08,680 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 2: tend to be very streaky. Outside of the very few

510
00:22:11,040 --> 00:22:13,359
Speaker 2: elite goalkeepers, most of them tend to have up and

511
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 2: down periods, and I think if Mendy starts to come

512
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,920
Speaker 2: down and regress towards what is a league average keeper,

513
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:20,879
Speaker 2: I think he's above that, but I don't think he's

514
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 2: going to always be above that. I think it's a

515
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,119
Speaker 2: good time here to bet against a Chelsea attack, or

516
00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,920
Speaker 2: to bet against Chelsea defense, which is starting to show

517
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 2: some issues. Doesn't look like Kante is going to be

518
00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 2: back for a while. The difference between him and Sawool

519
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 2: and the midfield is huge. If you go back and

520
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,080
Speaker 2: look at the last few matches, they have not had

521
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: the same kind of midfield control that Thomas Tuckle craves.

522
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: That being said, the league's defense, they're among the worst

523
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,919
Speaker 2: in the league in big scoring chances allowed, in non

524
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 2: penalty XG. They haven't even played Chelsea in City yet,

525
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,160
Speaker 2: so think about that in the sense that when they've

526
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: played United, when they played Liverpool they got absolutely pasted.

527
00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: And that's been a common problem for Belsa teams going

528
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 2: back to last year when they were in the prem playing.

529
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,199
Speaker 2: You know, when they played tottenhamho couldn't score on anybody.

530
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 2: They got absolutely pasted Liverpool four goals against them, So

531
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 2: they really struggled against the top top teams. Chelsea put

532
00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 2: four past them last year and so I don't really

533
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,680
Speaker 2: trust this leads defense to take a spread in this

534
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: in this spot on the road, but I will take

535
00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:22,119
Speaker 2: both teams to score at even money because I think

536
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 2: this Chelsea defense continues to get more respect than it deserves,

537
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 2: especially without in Goola content.

538
00:23:27,880 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 3: One team that we have said repeatedly on the show

539
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 3: is always overvalued. Liverpool minus four fifty. They're taking on

540
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 3: and hosting Aston Villa. Steved Gerard making his return to Anfield,

541
00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,480
Speaker 3: this time as the coach of Aston Villa. They're eleven

542
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 3: to one on the money line. The draw is six

543
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: to one. And when we say that Liverpool is overvalued,

544
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,840
Speaker 3: we say it as in, yeah, the number is too high,

545
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 3: but they still will win all the time. So it's like,

546
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:53,560
Speaker 3: you know, insanity kind of the definition of insanity kind

547
00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 3: of thing betting against them. I'm going to try my

548
00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 3: best to not bet aston Villa and the Steven Gerrard

549
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,240
Speaker 3: improvement here, but it's gonna take a lot of lot

550
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 3: of moxie to do that. Eleven to one seems interesting

551
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:07,760
Speaker 3: to me. However, I do like to under here. I

552
00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 3: trust aston Villa's defense. It's a small sample, but they

553
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 3: do look genuinely improved under Gerard. Liverpool we've started to

554
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 3: see them slow down a little bit offensively, or we

555
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:20,200
Speaker 3: did against Wolves. Finally didn't score two or more goals

556
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 3: over unders three and a half, and I think it's

557
00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 3: very hard to score four goals in soccer. So I'll

558
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 3: take the shot that's a Bundesliga over under. I'm gonna

559
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 3: take the under here minus one fifteen and maybe a

560
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 3: little sprinkle on aston Villa. Anthony, where are you going

561
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 3: in this one? Yeah?

562
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 2: I lean that way as well. In terms of the

563
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: under the difference between the villa before and then before

564
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: and now has been the personnel changes. I mean, playing

565
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 2: Joey Ramsey who does a lot of defensive work for

566
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,800
Speaker 2: forward instead of Danny Yings who seems like he's out

567
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:50,119
Speaker 2: of favor, which I think is a net positive for

568
00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 2: this team, given that Watkins is a sending and that

569
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 2: playing Watkins Innings together with Watkins on the wing wasn't

570
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: offering enough going forward. They weren't great connecting and with

571
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 2: Watkins isn't doing a lot defensive work to track back,

572
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: so you're losing that quite a bit. There no Leon

573
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:06,399
Speaker 2: Bailey for this game. It looks like he's going to

574
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 2: miss with an injury. And they also put Marvelous in

575
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 2: the Comba in the midfield, playing a three in the

576
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:13,879
Speaker 2: midfield as opposed to two that Dean Smith was running

577
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: with most of the time. He does a lot of

578
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 2: ball winning, he's pretty good defensively and he's really added

579
00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 2: a lot to this defense. And they're fullbacks target maybe

580
00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,720
Speaker 2: back here. He's a solid defensive fullback. Very important the

581
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: fullbacks when you're defying to defend Liverpool with Alexander Arnold

582
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 2: Simmikos Robertson, whichever they choose to play. Those two getting

583
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 2: forward and solid Mane are unbelievable in the wings, so

584
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 2: having winger, suple track back and fullbacks are really important.

585
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 2: So I lean towards the under here three and a half.

586
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,280
Speaker 3: It's a funny conundrum with Liverpool and one that I'll

587
00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 3: probably never be able to beat. And BJ You're often

588
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 3: with me on the side, like you model games, Anthony

589
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 3: models games. I spend a lot of time doing prep

590
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: work for this and handicapping these games, and every week

591
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 3: I just say, oh my god, the Liverpool number is

592
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 3: too high, and I think that's the case again this week,

593
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:00,800
Speaker 3: Am I right?

594
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean I have Liverpool at minus three sixty eight,

595
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,919
Speaker 1: So if this number continues to climb and climb up,

596
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 1: it's gonna be hard for me at some point not

597
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 1: to play a number. But at the same time, you know, Liverpool,

598
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:15,320
Speaker 1: it's you know, we cashed obviously last week with Wolves

599
00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 1: got up, you know, the plus one and a half

600
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,959
Speaker 1: got two minus one thirty five, which made it betible.

601
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:22,199
Speaker 1: But I think, you know, the Stephen Gerrard revolution has

602
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 1: actually been really good, you know, for Aston Villa Anthony.

603
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 1: You know, I agree with Anthony everything Anthony said. You know,

604
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: if we want to run through their expected goals numbers,

605
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,200
Speaker 1: only allowed point four against Brighton, point nine against Crystal Palace,

606
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 1: point nine against Manchester City and one point two against Leicester.

607
00:26:34,840 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 1: That's a massive, massive improvement from where they were at.

608
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:40,159
Speaker 1: So going up against Manchester City and only allowing them

609
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 1: to create you know, around one expected goal, that's that's

610
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: really impressive. And especially going up against Liverpool who has

611
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: a similar type of attacking style and similar talent level

612
00:26:49,240 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 1: of attacking players, It's not crazy that Gerrard's defense can

613
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 1: hold them to you know, one one and a half

614
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,440
Speaker 1: expected goals and you know, hope that Liverpool doesn't overperform.

615
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: So I agree. I'm kind of trying to lean leaning

616
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: towards Aston Villa. If I can at a plus two

617
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: at a decent number, I do think that that is

618
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: worth a play. But other than that, I'm staying away

619
00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: and I'm watching to see how much this Liverpool line

620
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: will climb.

621
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,840
Speaker 3: Now we'll head to East Anglia Norich City the Canaries.

622
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:16,040
Speaker 3: They're hosting Manchester United Norch six to one home underdogs

623
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 3: Manchester United minus two twenty the draws plus three eighty.

624
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:22,400
Speaker 3: This is the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday afternoon.

625
00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 3: Like I was saying with two earlier matches, I think

626
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 3: this handicap. A lot of it comes down to if

627
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:30,360
Speaker 3: you think Norch can score against the Manchester United defense,

628
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 3: which has struggled for most of the year. But Ralph

629
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 3: Ragnick's in town now, you'd expect that they will be

630
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,640
Speaker 3: much more rigid defensively, especially under new manager. You'll try

631
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 3: to set them up more defensively and against the game

632
00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: Like Norwich, though you can take more chances, Let's be honest,

633
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 3: you you can be a little bit more risky with

634
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,880
Speaker 3: the way you play against a team that a won't

635
00:27:50,880 --> 00:27:54,040
Speaker 3: punish you for making a mistake too many mistakes in

636
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 3: the back, and be also will make their own mistakes

637
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,440
Speaker 3: so you can score. I'm looking over or nothing here,

638
00:27:59,640 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 3: but I just don't know if I trust Norch enough

639
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: to score. We've seen quite a bit this season. Even

640
00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 3: when the numbers look good, the situation looks good for them,

641
00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: they're just so hard to trust. Maybe I should have

642
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 3: just catched that five to one and Daniel Farcas goodbye match,

643
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 3: and then the two to eighty or so in Dean

644
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 3: Smith's debut and been like that should be good enough

645
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 3: for betting Norwich City for the season. But I didn't

646
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 3: do that. And now that's why I'm staring at this

647
00:28:23,640 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 3: number and staying away from it. It's over nothing for me, Anthony.

648
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: What do you have?

649
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:31,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, United's ball progression numbers have gotten better in the

650
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,640
Speaker 2: last two weeks since the firing of Ola. The main

651
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 2: reason for that probably playing Jaydon Sancho, who's quite good

652
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: and quite good at putting the ball into good places

653
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 2: where Ronaldo can score and where Rashford can score. I

654
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: show value here on both Norwich plus one and on

655
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,719
Speaker 2: the both teams to score. I just don't know if

656
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 2: I want to play them, because I talked about this

657
00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 2: in the last show. And thank you Ralph Ragnanck for

658
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 2: putting all the kids in. I mean dudes who I

659
00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 2: have never heard of from the United Academy. We're coming

660
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 2: into the game today and I had the under and

661
00:29:02,080 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 2: I was like, please do not score again. It was

662
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: one to one. They did not even come close to

663
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 2: scoring because they were bringing on the kids. They even

664
00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 2: subbed out the goalie in the sixty fifth minute to

665
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 2: bring on Tom Heaton. Cogrets Tom Heaton, I'm making his

666
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: debut in the prem or and his United debut, I

667
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: should say, but I think I'm gonna utimately end up

668
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:19,560
Speaker 2: passing here. We're going to look at the number. If

669
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:20,960
Speaker 2: it gets a little higher, I'm going to end up

670
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 2: taking Norwich begrudgingly. But I just think Ragni's improving the defense,

671
00:29:24,560 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: and that's why the market's starting to catch up up

672
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 2: to that, and that's why I show value even if

673
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 2: maybe my numbers aren't quite picking up the improvement defensively

674
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: from United.

675
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 3: Looping the page the Sunday, We'll start on the South

676
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 3: coast with Brighton. They're plus one oh five at home

677
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 3: against Spurs plus two point eighty five and the draws

678
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:41,800
Speaker 3: plus two forty. This is a really tough one to

679
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: just even talk about, just because Spurs has been going

680
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 3: through a little bit of a COVID outbreak. We don't

681
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: know if this game is going to happen. So let's

682
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 3: just quickly, you know, rifle through the situations here. BJ.

683
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: What are your projections showing and what are you kind

684
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,120
Speaker 3: of assuming going into this one for Sunday morning.

685
00:29:58,360 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, so before the whole COVID outbreak at Tottenham. I

686
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: had Brighton projected at plus one fifteen because obviously their

687
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 1: underlying metrics have been good this year and last year

688
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 1: Tottenham's have been pretty horrendous before Antonio Conte got to town.

689
00:30:11,160 --> 00:30:13,560
Speaker 1: Well now we have I believe we're up to eight

690
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 1: people or maybe eight players who have tested positive for COVID.

691
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 1: The only information before recording this, you know, after it

692
00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 1: might come out, But the only two players I saw

693
00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:24,280
Speaker 1: were Emerson and Brian Gill. So if it's only those

694
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:28,160
Speaker 1: two people by Saturday, and you know there's no star

695
00:30:28,240 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: players and they actually do end up playing this match,

696
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:32,320
Speaker 1: well you know, then it's like, all right, well maybe

697
00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 1: I'll stay away from Brighton. You know, if Harry Kane

698
00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,520
Speaker 1: Son all those guys are playing essentially a pass. Now

699
00:30:37,760 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 1: what's going to be interesting to see is if Spurs

700
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: plays their Europa Conference League match against Renes on Thursday.

701
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: I'll be interested to see what their travel squad looks like.

702
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 1: We don't know if if they're going to play it,

703
00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: but looking at their travel squad they have, if they

704
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: actually want to go for it, they actually have to

705
00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:53,720
Speaker 1: win to get to the knockout stage. So I would

706
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,360
Speaker 1: expect them to send a full squad of players who

707
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: are actually you know, healthy, haven't tested positive. The play

708
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 1: right now now, I believe is to bet Brighton plus

709
00:31:03,040 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: funnel five after seeing that you travel squad on Thursday,

710
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: and if some significant guys are out, bet Brighton plus

711
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 1: one oh five. And if the match is being played

712
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: and you know we get to that time and a

713
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:14,960
Speaker 1: bunch of guys are out due to COVID, well you

714
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 1: have significant value on Brighton if they actually played the match.

715
00:31:17,560 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: So who knows at this point who's going to be out,

716
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: who's going to be in, if they're even going to

717
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: play this match. But I showed value on Brighton even

718
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: before this came all the way down, So I like

719
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: the Seagulls. But then again, who knows.

720
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's pretty much an impossible handicapped you

721
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: don't know who was available for Tottenham. I'm fascinated by

722
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 2: this saga. I don't think many people are following it closely.

723
00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 2: So Europa Conference League Ren is supposed to come to

724
00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 2: London on Thursday. As of right now, Tottenham has said

725
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: we're not playing match called off. It was announced this

726
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 2: afternoon about three three thirty local time on the East

727
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 2: coast of the US, so A thirty in London. Ren

728
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 2: releases the same in saying hold on, we think the

729
00:31:52,240 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 2: game's on. So we have no idea as of recording

730
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,640
Speaker 2: Wednesday morning, and by the time this comes out Thursday,

731
00:31:56,680 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 2: we probably will know if the game is on or off.

732
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 2: Spurs do not want to play it. They have a

733
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,560
Speaker 2: huge outbreak. They want to shut down hotspur Way. They've

734
00:32:02,600 --> 00:32:05,240
Speaker 2: actually kind of been pushing to cancel this game altogether.

735
00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 2: I'm not betting it at the moment. I'm not even

736
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 2: going to start handicapping it because I don't want to say.

737
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: You know, here's why I like Spurs. The current number.

738
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 2: If the current number seems to be bigging in that

739
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,200
Speaker 2: a couple of key players are out, and so that

740
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 2: the current number if everybody's available. I like Totenham big time.

741
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 2: That's a little They're clearly undervalued, but the market seems

742
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 2: to be suggesting that somebody, or at least a few

743
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 2: people pretty significant are not playing. I'm staying away all together.

744
00:32:29,560 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 3: Less dramatic is Burnley plus two seventy hosting west Ham

745
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: even money favorites on the road at Turf More the

746
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 3: draws plus two sixty five nine am kickoff on Sunday

747
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 3: as well. West Ham God love them cash for us again,

748
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 3: this time against Chelsea over the weekend. It was a

749
00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 3: deserved win I think. Yeah, obviously one of the goals

750
00:32:48,800 --> 00:32:51,479
Speaker 3: was quite lucky, but they still went on XTG. They

751
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:56,160
Speaker 3: exploited that struggling Chelsea defense and west Ham just one

752
00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 3: of the things that's so great about this team I

753
00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 3: think that David Moyes has done such a good job

754
00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 3: with is that they don't really get phased by any

755
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 3: game state right, Like, they go down against Chelsea, they

756
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 3: come back. They go down against Chelsea again and they

757
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 3: come back. They just play the same way. It seems

758
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 3: like David Moyes has these players. They're playing a system

759
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 3: and they don't really stop doing it. That being said,

760
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 3: this game is a little tricky. I don't think I'll

761
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: have a play on it. I'm much closer to Burnley

762
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 3: at home in this one than I am on west

763
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 3: Ham in a cell high spot. But for right now,

764
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 3: for me, it's a stay away west Ham and Burnley.

765
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 3: West Ham's biggest strength I think is creating big scoring

766
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 3: chances Burnley's pretty decent and preventing them so it could

767
00:33:35,560 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 3: be a matchup issue here. I'm tempted by Burnley. I'm

768
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 3: staying away. BJ. Do you have anything here?

769
00:33:40,600 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: Yeah? I love over two and a half goals and

770
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 1: minus on twenty Burnley's four four two. It's been really

771
00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 1: bad this season one point five to two expect to

772
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: goals per ninety minutes when playing out of it, so

773
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,400
Speaker 1: it's not surprising that they're dead last and shots loud

774
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: per ninety and box entries allowed. So playing going up

775
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: against west Ham, who's top five in both of those metrics,

776
00:33:55,760 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 1: that's a big problem. The biggest thing with four to

777
00:33:57,520 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 1: four two is essentially a philosophy behind it, with Seawan

778
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 1: Dyke just trying to do is clog up the middle

779
00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,480
Speaker 1: of the pitch, stay organized in your back two lines.

780
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: Forced opponents to go out wide and beat you with

781
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 1: crosses because they have you know, fantastic defenders like Darkowski

782
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 1: and Ben me who are very good in the air

783
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: winning the ball. Well, Burnley's allowing a lot more crosses

784
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: into the box this season. They're fourteenth in that metric

785
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: this season. Well, west Ham is completed the second most

786
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 1: process you know, the penalty are so it's a pretty

787
00:34:22,600 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 1: bad matchup. For Burnley, who's looked pretty shaky defensively. Now

788
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: offensively they haven't been that great. But west Ham is

789
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,080
Speaker 1: really really thin on their back line. Obviously, Agbana is

790
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:35,239
Speaker 1: already out for the season, Kurt Zuma picked up a

791
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: hamstring injury. He's going to be out for this one.

792
00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:40,440
Speaker 1: Ben Johnson is out at right back. Aaron Creswell is questionable.

793
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 1: So when you don't have those guys and you're going

794
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: against a Burnley team that basically creates all their stuff

795
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: off of corners and you don't have your two big

796
00:34:47,160 --> 00:34:49,239
Speaker 1: guys in the center to defend them, that puts a

797
00:34:49,280 --> 00:34:52,880
Speaker 1: lot more tresh around guys like Soyshek and Rice and

798
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 1: Craig Dawson to try to, you know, win the ball

799
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,640
Speaker 1: in the air with those guys. So I have two

800
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:59,439
Speaker 1: point eight three goals projected for this one. With west

801
00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:01,759
Speaker 1: Ham being fit in the back line, I think there's

802
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,160
Speaker 1: some value on the over two and a half goals.

803
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the type of game that we could be

804
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 3: sitting there watching on Sunday and being like you watch

805
00:35:08,200 --> 00:35:09,840
Speaker 3: like gold Rush or something to be like, how the

806
00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:11,879
Speaker 3: hell is west Ham Burnley to too? In the first

807
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 3: half the game is off the rails. That's part of

808
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 3: the reason I think Burnley is interesting to me. It

809
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 3: does seem like a game that has some chaos written

810
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:22,720
Speaker 3: on it. Anthony, you were also leaning towards the Clarets

811
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 3: and Seawan dye. Right.

812
00:35:23,840 --> 00:35:26,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's actually my second time betting against west Ham

813
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 2: all year. They've been I think the official team of

814
00:35:29,920 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 2: the podcast this year in terms of cash and tickets

815
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,520
Speaker 2: for us. It feels like it at least. But this

816
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 2: is a similar spot. They beat Liverpool at home three

817
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 2: to two and you got a little fortunate you always

818
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 2: do when you know you beat Liverpool, but then they

819
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 2: went on the road the next match, came out flat

820
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 2: and attack lost one zero at Wolves. I think there's

821
00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,400
Speaker 2: a similar spot here. You beat Chelsea, huge win. You know,

822
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 2: the most important win of the year they'll have probably

823
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: the whole season unless they get Top four, will be

824
00:35:56,719 --> 00:35:59,719
Speaker 2: that home win against Chelsea, a London rival. Those two

825
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:04,080
Speaker 2: teams often in contention a lot of bad blood between

826
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 2: the fan bases. Now they have to go on the

827
00:36:05,760 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 2: road to Burnley and like Bja mentioned, they're down their

828
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,120
Speaker 2: two starting center backs and potentially they're left back. Nightmare

829
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 2: situation because I think the only way they can go

830
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 2: even deeper into the bench. But what they did last

831
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,400
Speaker 2: year at one point was they put Declan Rice at

832
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 2: center back and they lost a lot of midfield control

833
00:36:21,360 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 2: from that. They don't really have the squad depth that

834
00:36:24,560 --> 00:36:27,560
Speaker 2: the other top six sides do and I think that

835
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 2: was really the ultimate question. You know, if they could

836
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 2: stay healthy and you know, keep playing as well, they're

837
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 2: a legitimate top fourteen. But what happens when the first

838
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 2: injuries start to hit and they've come at the worst

839
00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 2: time for west Ham with all these fixtures coming up,

840
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: ogbonna and zooma now very questionable situation. I like Burnley

841
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 2: to get a point here at home.

842
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,720
Speaker 3: Another Sunday morning kickoff, Another nine am Sunday morning kickoff.

843
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,880
Speaker 3: Leicester City minus one forty five at home hosting Newcastle

844
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: plus three ninety the Druss plus three ten. I make

845
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,880
Speaker 3: no qualms about it that I like to bet against

846
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 3: this Newcastle team. But Leicester also has I think a

847
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,640
Speaker 3: little bit of a COVID issue. So for right now,

848
00:37:03,040 --> 00:37:04,840
Speaker 3: it's a pass for me. BJ Do you want to

849
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:06,279
Speaker 3: touch real quick on this one?

850
00:37:06,520 --> 00:37:08,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. So it was announced this afternoon that Leicester is

851
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 1: seven players that are tested positive for COVID and won't

852
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,960
Speaker 1: be traveling to Napoli for their Europa League match on Thursday.

853
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 1: We have no idea who those seven players are. Uri

854
00:37:18,080 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 1: Tillmans is still out with an injury, so who knows.

855
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: I'm going to watch their travel squad and see if

856
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 1: it's anybody important. It's very hard to get behind this

857
00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:27,759
Speaker 1: Newcastle team right now. You know, with Eddy how they

858
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 1: did play well against Burnley in the last match. You know,

859
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,240
Speaker 1: created a one big chance gended up being the difference.

860
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 1: But it's one of those situations where the market hasn't

861
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 1: really moved that much on Lester after getting announced. I

862
00:37:38,560 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: believe they opened around minus one sixty and they're only

863
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:42,359
Speaker 1: down to minus one forty five. So what that tells

864
00:37:42,440 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 1: me is that maybe it's not anybody significant right now.

865
00:37:44,640 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 1: I have Lesser projected at minus one thirty nine. So

866
00:37:47,320 --> 00:37:49,239
Speaker 1: if we can figure out who's actually going to be

867
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:51,400
Speaker 1: in the squad for this match, then you know, potentially

868
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:53,359
Speaker 1: a play on Lester or maybe a team total over

869
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:55,520
Speaker 1: if they have all their attacking players there, given how

870
00:37:55,560 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 1: bad the new Castle defense has been. But other than that,

871
00:37:57,680 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: it's passed for me and the Premier.

872
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 3: League Slate wraps up with Crystal Palace is plus one

873
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 3: thirty home favorites against the hottest team in all the land,

874
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,239
Speaker 3: that's Everdent plus two to twenty five. Coming off a

875
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:09,719
Speaker 3: riveting win, they are now on a one game winning

876
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,439
Speaker 3: streak taking it to South London. Everdon's plus two twenty

877
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,120
Speaker 3: five on the money line to Truss plus two thirty

878
00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 3: five eleven thirty am kickoff at Selhurst Park Palace, another

879
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:20,879
Speaker 3: beloved team on this podcast. For me, at least three

880
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 3: losses in a row, although they've won on expected goals

881
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 3: in two of them, and they did win expected goals

882
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,359
Speaker 3: in a drug against Burnley right before that three game

883
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:31,040
Speaker 3: losing streak. I think it's to me, it looks like

884
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 3: a palace spot here. I want to wait though. Ralphae

885
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:35,960
Speaker 3: Al Benitez has been reluctant to play three in the

886
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 3: midfield for Everden this season, and then what did he do?

887
00:38:38,560 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 3: They go down to Arsenal. He brings Andre Gomessen to

888
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 3: play three in the midfield and Everdon looked so much

889
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,919
Speaker 3: better going forward. It allowed for Charleston and Demari Gray

890
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 3: to do what they do best on the wings. So

891
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 3: I'm going to see if I can get a better

892
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,799
Speaker 3: number on Palace as this game approaches as people bet

893
00:38:54,920 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 3: into the Everden ascendency here. But if Rafa does have

894
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 3: three in the midfield, I would be a little bit nervous,

895
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 3: especially because you know, I love Connor Gallagher and all

896
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 3: the work he does in the center of the park

897
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,759
Speaker 3: for Palace, Anthony, do you have anything on this one? Yeah?

898
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 2: You know Everton and Palace two teams has been conceding

899
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:11,800
Speaker 2: way more goals than they should be given the chances

900
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 2: they've allowed. Want to play an under in those situations usually,

901
00:39:14,560 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 2: but at two and a quarter, there's not a ton

902
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:18,320
Speaker 2: in this in terms of not a lot of wiggle

903
00:39:18,400 --> 00:39:21,080
Speaker 2: room to play with, and I don't really like the

904
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,360
Speaker 2: number here, not enough value for me, so I'm passing overall.

905
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 3: That's the other thing to it.

906
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: It does.

907
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 3: This game does have some of the recipes ingredients that

908
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 3: I like for a draw to, especially because Everdence don't

909
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:33,960
Speaker 3: have Dominic Colverard Lewin and are you going to be

910
00:39:34,000 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 3: relying heavily on Gray and Charlie sent to finish chances,

911
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 3: So we could see pretty low event one here. With that,

912
00:39:39,880 --> 00:39:42,719
Speaker 3: we will now move on to Germany and the Bundesliga.

913
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,719
Speaker 3: Let's talk about our favorite bets there. BJ will start

914
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 3: with you, what is your favorite bet this week?

915
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 1: In Toutschland Oacome versus Dortmund over three goals at minus

916
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 1: one twenty Earling Holland is back, which means Dortmund overs

917
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: are back. With Holland in the lineup, Dormant is averaging

918
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,920
Speaker 1: around two point one expected goal per match without them

919
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 1: only one point seven, so they should be able to

920
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 1: create a lot of chances. On the spoken defense, which

921
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: has been one of the worst in the Bundesliga. They're

922
00:40:07,520 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: allowing around two expected goals per match and when they

923
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 1: have to face some of the elite sides in Germany,

924
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: it gets pretty ugly. They allowed four point six expected

925
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 1: goals to Byron, two point five RB Leipzig, two to

926
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: Freiburg and one point eight to Gladbach. I mean they

927
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: just allowed two point nine expected goals to Augsburg, who's

928
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 1: one of the worst offenses in the entire league. So

929
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 1: I don't think Dormann and Holland are going to have

930
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,840
Speaker 1: any trouble creating chances. On the flip side, Bokam hasn't

931
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 1: been that bad offensively, especially for a newly promoted team,

932
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: especially in their last six matches, they've created eight point

933
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:38,399
Speaker 1: seven expected goals and in those six matches they fit

934
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:41,440
Speaker 1: three of them are against Frankfurt, Hoffenheim and Glodbach. So

935
00:40:41,760 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: going against the Doormann defense is going to be without

936
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: one of its best defenders, a Kanji, and has allowed

937
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,279
Speaker 1: the fifth most big scoring chances of this season. There's

938
00:40:48,320 --> 00:40:49,800
Speaker 1: a good chance Bochum can get on the board. I

939
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: have three point sixty seven goals projected for this match,

940
00:40:52,600 --> 00:40:54,479
Speaker 1: so like over three goals in minus one.

941
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 3: Twenty Anthony, A familiar song out of you for this one.

942
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,520
Speaker 2: Right, yeah? I mean you know it's not Growth the

943
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 2: Firth thirteen goals conceded in two matches. It is not

944
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:08,240
Speaker 2: Gladbach ten goals conceded in two halves against Coln and Freiberg.

945
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 2: It is going back to the tried and true Leverkusen

946
00:41:11,800 --> 00:41:15,600
Speaker 2: fade eintrack Frankfurt plus a half at minus one twenty five.

947
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 2: Leverkusen was on the beat down end of that Growth

948
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:25,839
Speaker 2: their Firth lost loss on Saturday. They scored seven goals, which,

949
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,239
Speaker 2: look at its face, is incredibly impressive. You know, they're

950
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:31,799
Speaker 2: one of the best attacks in the Bundesliga.

951
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:32,000
Speaker 1: Right.

952
00:41:32,040 --> 00:41:34,719
Speaker 2: Well, no, they only had two zero point eight expected goals,

953
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: which is still a good output, but at home against

954
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:38,759
Speaker 2: the worst team in the league, you'd expect about two

955
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:41,719
Speaker 2: and a half and so they still conceded a goal

956
00:41:41,800 --> 00:41:44,520
Speaker 2: in that game. They played a little bit better the

957
00:41:44,640 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 2: last few matches in attack, I will give them that,

958
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 2: but so it is Frankfurt. Frankfurt starting to look a

959
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: little bit better and at home here I think it's

960
00:41:52,600 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 2: a really good spot to get Frankfurt, who has not

961
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: been as bad as their numbers against Leverkusen, a team

962
00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,160
Speaker 2: who's been much better than the numbers suggest they should

963
00:42:01,200 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 2: be at this point in the season, and so I

964
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 2: have Frankfurt at minus one sixty to get a point.

965
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: So I like them to get one here at minus

966
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 2: one twenty one twenty five.

967
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: We did have a listener reach out from Germany to

968
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 3: tell us that we have been pronouncing ruther Firth wrong.

969
00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 3: It's ruther Fert like Kurt with a K and groyther Fert.

970
00:42:19,719 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, greyer, we do appreciate.

971
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: I will say that we're three Americans. One of us

972
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:26,319
Speaker 3: is from Iowa, one of us from is just trash

973
00:42:26,360 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 3: from Philadelphia, and the only one's middle long island trash

974
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: and so we will mispronounce names all the time and

975
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 3: we haven't really been hearing too much and when we do,

976
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:37,839
Speaker 3: it's it's always nice. And this was a nice one,

977
00:42:37,920 --> 00:42:40,160
Speaker 3: a nice DM to receive. And on that note, my

978
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,399
Speaker 3: favorite Bunduliga bet is Mines plus one and a half

979
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 3: against Bayern Munich. More pain, Please just give me the

980
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 3: Briyan Munich pain. I actually am going to sprinkle the

981
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:50,440
Speaker 3: money line at twelve to one. It's just this Mine's defense.

982
00:42:50,600 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 3: I should have just bet them. Last week on this

983
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 3: pod I talked about the Wolfsburg Minds draw because it

984
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 3: just ticked every box that I like in betting the draw,

985
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 3: even though it's taking place in bunus Liga. I should

986
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 3: have just backed Minds. I didn't. I'm going to learn

987
00:43:03,560 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 3: from that and back them here to keep it close

988
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:08,239
Speaker 3: against Bayern Munich. This is just an elite defense in

989
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 3: the Bundesliga, and if they can get a couple stops

990
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: and just slowed Byron down, maybe they can nick a

991
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 3: win here on Saturday at nine thirty am. So backing

992
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:18,600
Speaker 3: the plus one and a half in a sprinkle on

993
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,800
Speaker 3: the twelfth to one and now we will move to Italy.

994
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:22,960
Speaker 3: BJ what do you have for us in Syria I

995
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 3: this week?

996
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love so Swallow Drono Bett plus fine oh

997
00:43:26,640 --> 00:43:29,640
Speaker 1: five at home against Lazio another fade of Lazio, which

998
00:43:29,640 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: is an incredibly overrated team. Sorry, this team has a

999
00:43:33,280 --> 00:43:36,080
Speaker 1: minus two expect a gold differential, but they's somehow in

1000
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,879
Speaker 1: seventh place. They've scored thirty two goals off of twenty

1001
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:41,839
Speaker 1: one point six expectacles, so some negative regresh is coming

1002
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:44,239
Speaker 1: in a big way, especially against the Spasola defense that

1003
00:43:44,480 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 1: you know hasn't been that great but has done a

1004
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: great job at limiting high quality chances. They're fifth in

1005
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 1: Syria on big scoring chances allow and that's basically how

1006
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,120
Speaker 1: Lazio is scoring all of their chances. It's basically Syria

1007
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: Mobley scoring you know, all their chances inside the six

1008
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 1: yard box, because Lasio is sixteenth in shots per twelfth

1009
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: in box entries and dead last and crosses completed into

1010
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: the eighteen yard box. So Swallow has been pretty good

1011
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:09,239
Speaker 1: offensively this season. They're creating one point four expected goals

1012
00:44:09,280 --> 00:44:11,840
Speaker 1: per match and has the fourth most big scoring chances

1013
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:15,479
Speaker 1: in Syria. A. Lazio has been okay. Defensively, they're tenth

1014
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 1: and non penalty expected goals allowed, but they're one of

1015
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: the worst pressing teams in Italy, so it's can be

1016
00:44:19,800 --> 00:44:21,239
Speaker 1: very hard for them to win the ball against the

1017
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,360
Speaker 1: swallow as a top six team versus pressure. But Lazio's

1018
00:44:24,440 --> 00:44:27,800
Speaker 1: road form in Syria A has been horrendous. They have

1019
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 1: a only created seven point one expected goals in eight

1020
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 1: matches and have a minus five point three expected goal differential.

1021
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 1: I have to swallow. Projected as a slight favorite in

1022
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: this one. I really don't understand why Lazio is getting

1023
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,080
Speaker 1: the credit that they really don't deserve. So I left

1024
00:44:42,120 --> 00:44:44,640
Speaker 1: Suswallow drawn novet at plus one oh.

1025
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 3: Five Anthony your favorite bet in Syria.

1026
00:44:47,800 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, utes plus a half against Milan at home danes Man.

1027
00:44:53,880 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 2: Two weeks ago we had that midweek podcast. We had

1028
00:44:56,680 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 2: them plus four fifty. They were up two zero against Lotzio.

1029
00:44:59,520 --> 00:44:59,840
Speaker 1: Blew it.

1030
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 2: They were up three to one against Loatzio. Blew it.

1031
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 2: They had three to three. Latio was down to ten men,

1032
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 2: couldn't do it, gave up a goal and then found

1033
00:45:07,160 --> 00:45:09,359
Speaker 2: a late equalizer. Got the plus one in but could

1034
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 2: not catch the money line. Really should have been. Udinessei

1035
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 2: is a consistent underperformer for the better part of a

1036
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 2: year and a half now, so this dates back to

1037
00:45:17,040 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 2: last season. My guy Isaac's success did have an assist.

1038
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:22,240
Speaker 2: At the weekend they went up one nail against Emplie.

1039
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: They blew it lost three to one. Udiness overall, though

1040
00:45:26,160 --> 00:45:30,320
Speaker 2: offensively fifth best in non penalty expected goals going forward,

1041
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,960
Speaker 2: defensively only twelve, so they're a little bit below average

1042
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: defensively but an above average attack. They're basically an average

1043
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 2: Syria team. This is more of a play against Milan

1044
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 2: who against the Liverpool backups at home in the midweek

1045
00:45:45,520 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 2: and Divak Origi. They could not keep Liverpool up twice,

1046
00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 2: scored twice, dealing with a ton of injury issues. Very overrated.

1047
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 2: I know they're sitting in top Siria. I do not

1048
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:57,320
Speaker 2: believe they will stay there whatsoever. They have attacking regression

1049
00:45:57,360 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: coming big time, and I don't think their defense is

1050
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,319
Speaker 2: quite as good as as maybe the numbers suggest they

1051
00:46:01,320 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 2: are either. So I think o Nesci gets at least

1052
00:46:03,560 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 2: a point here, and I know I'm going to be

1053
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,839
Speaker 2: playing the money line. I think somebody else will too.

1054
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 2: Once we get to that segment.

1055
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:12,080
Speaker 3: Now we head to Spain La Liga. Anthony and I

1056
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 3: are both on the same game here, different bets, a

1057
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:17,279
Speaker 3: little bit of a disagreement. I like the draw in

1058
00:46:17,600 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 3: bill Bao and Savilla. It's plus two twenty. Both of

1059
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 3: these teams have allowed eleven goals on the season. That's

1060
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 3: twenty two total in thirty one games played combined, and

1061
00:46:26,360 --> 00:46:28,520
Speaker 3: the both teams to score is under forty five percent

1062
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 3: for both teams. When you look at all their matches,

1063
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,360
Speaker 3: we know that both of these are really really good defenses.

1064
00:46:34,520 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 3: I know that bill Bao especially deserves some offensive positive regression,

1065
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:40,280
Speaker 3: but I just don't think it's going to come against

1066
00:46:40,320 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 3: a team like Sevilla, who let us down in the

1067
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 3: Champions League today. Bill Bao draws are just one of

1068
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 3: the most beautiful bets in all of sports, honestly, So

1069
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 3: join me on the team for the best country against Sevilla.

1070
00:46:53,040 --> 00:46:54,759
Speaker 3: But Anthony is going to try to take you somewhere else.

1071
00:46:55,080 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 2: Yeah. You know, when teams like Sevilla and Athletic Club

1072
00:46:59,320 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 2: bill Bao play, you tend to get a situation where

1073
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 2: the total is pretty low. Two and a quarter is

1074
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:07,080
Speaker 2: tends to be the number. Here, we've got two with

1075
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,040
Speaker 2: the over pretty much minus one ten. It's very hard

1076
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: for me to pass up on that, given that these

1077
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,280
Speaker 2: attacks are two of the six best in the league,

1078
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 2: and I understand their defenses are both quite good, but

1079
00:47:18,760 --> 00:47:21,839
Speaker 2: in terms of expected goals, Sevia fourth Athletic go about

1080
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 2: sixth I mean, they're pretty solid attacks. And so you know,

1081
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:26,479
Speaker 2: whether you play the both teams to score at plus

1082
00:47:26,560 --> 00:47:28,719
Speaker 2: one thirty, hopefully it ends one one in that case,

1083
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 2: I just think at some point there's going to be

1084
00:47:30,840 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 2: some goals in these games, given how both teams have

1085
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 2: attacking regression coming. Sevilla has some defensive regression coming. So

1086
00:47:37,800 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to play the over here at two goals,

1087
00:47:40,360 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 2: probably gonna split a unit, going to go half a

1088
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 2: unit on over two goals, half a unit. Both teams

1089
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,719
Speaker 2: to score if it ends one to one, still get

1090
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,520
Speaker 2: some profit there, which I think is very possible in

1091
00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: this game. But I also just think it's generally going

1092
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,480
Speaker 2: to be a little more open and a little bit

1093
00:47:53,560 --> 00:47:57,240
Speaker 2: more you know, chances than you'd expect these two teams

1094
00:47:57,280 --> 00:47:57,799
Speaker 2: when they play.

1095
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 3: And now on to league. I've got nothing in this one,

1096
00:48:01,320 --> 00:48:03,560
Speaker 3: but I know you two do. But BJ, this is

1097
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 3: your favorite league in all the world.

1098
00:48:05,719 --> 00:48:08,879
Speaker 1: So let you start. I love Lil drown o Bett

1099
00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 1: minus won twenty five against Layon. These two teams are

1100
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:12,440
Speaker 1: sitting right next to each other on the table, but

1101
00:48:12,520 --> 00:48:15,000
Speaker 1: Lil is far and away better than Layone right now

1102
00:48:15,040 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: and Lil they've been on fire the last eight matches.

1103
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:19,839
Speaker 1: They've been unbeaten. Their last loss came in that two

1104
00:48:19,840 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: to one, you know, heartbreaking loss to PSG back in

1105
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 1: late October. They've really put the clamps down defensively. In

1106
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:29,000
Speaker 1: the last eight matches. They've only allowed over one expected

1107
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:32,920
Speaker 1: goal once and they've played Savia, Monaco, Renes and Wolfsburg

1108
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:36,560
Speaker 1: in that timeframe. They're number one in league un seventeen

1109
00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: point five expected goals allowed in seventeen matches and the

1110
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: number one team in big scoring chances allowed. Leon has

1111
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 1: been very good offensively. They've pretty much replaced Memphis to

1112
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 1: PI with a whole host of a couple other guys.

1113
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:49,759
Speaker 1: They're averaging one point seven to eight expected goals per

1114
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 1: match and have a ton of talent upfront. The biggest

1115
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 1: thing though, is they are horrendous defensively. They are allowing

1116
00:48:57,520 --> 00:49:00,680
Speaker 1: one point seventy four expected goals per match, bottom five

1117
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 1: in shots per ninety, big scoring chance loud, and box

1118
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 1: sets loud. In fact, this past weekend they gave up

1119
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,960
Speaker 1: five big scoring chances to Bordeaux, who's a very very

1120
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,839
Speaker 1: average league on team. They're also going to be without

1121
00:49:12,880 --> 00:49:16,680
Speaker 1: their best defender, Jason Denier until February, so this defense

1122
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:19,400
Speaker 1: is going to get any better anytime soon. So I

1123
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:22,239
Speaker 1: have Liell projected at minus one sixteen, so I love

1124
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,760
Speaker 1: their John o'bettline. At minus one twenty five.

1125
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,399
Speaker 2: Sounds like BJ does not think Denier will be there

1126
00:49:27,440 --> 00:49:30,840
Speaker 2: to deny some leal goals. But I'm going back to

1127
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:33,640
Speaker 2: my favorite team in leg On. Maybe not my favorite team,

1128
00:49:33,680 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 2: but Paris Center Mount and Monico the game of the

1129
00:49:35,760 --> 00:49:40,080
Speaker 2: weekend in France, even though technically not happening in France,

1130
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 2: Monico will be hosting the about to be French champions

1131
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,400
Speaker 2: and they have the best defense in lig On, so

1132
00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:49,200
Speaker 2: I'm playing an under three point twenty five. I think

1133
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 2: PSG sets up to have a lot of possession here.

1134
00:49:51,719 --> 00:49:54,960
Speaker 2: I think Monico is attacked seventeenth in shots, ninth in

1135
00:49:55,280 --> 00:49:59,160
Speaker 2: chances created. Not particularly good a team that's going to

1136
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 2: expose pa Geze weaknesses on the counter, given that they're

1137
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 2: pretty bad in terms of crossing overall, not creating a

1138
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 2: lot of big chances, whereas their defense is number one

1139
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: in every category you look at, from shots allowed to

1140
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 2: XG allowed pass per defensive action. They pressed effectively. They've

1141
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:16,719
Speaker 2: allowed the fewest box interests in the league. So I

1142
00:50:16,760 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 2: don't think PSG is going to have easy entry into

1143
00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 2: the Monico penalty area. I think this sets up to

1144
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 2: be a two to one, one one type game. So

1145
00:50:23,200 --> 00:50:25,879
Speaker 2: with that extra quarter goal three and a quarter, I'm

1146
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 2: going to take the under here Monico and PSG, and

1147
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:29,759
Speaker 2: now we will move on to.

1148
00:50:29,840 --> 00:50:32,760
Speaker 3: Our favorite part of the program, our favorite underdogs across

1149
00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:35,479
Speaker 3: all of Europe this weekend. I always say to tread

1150
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 3: lightly when betting these they are underdogs for a reason.

1151
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 3: Although I will note that Bjy, who was an accountant

1152
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 3: in his past life, went back and audited the show

1153
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 3: to see how we do here in this portion of

1154
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 3: the program where eight fifteen and one. That's eight wins,

1155
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,799
Speaker 3: fifteen losses, one push. But we have returned seven point

1156
00:50:52,840 --> 00:50:55,440
Speaker 3: eighty five units, so it's been good. We've only been

1157
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 3: shut out once and we've had some pretty bad luck,

1158
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:01,920
Speaker 3: some painful beats, so you know it's it's been paying off,

1159
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:03,840
Speaker 3: and I'm going to start with an underdog that I

1160
00:51:03,920 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 3: really really like this week. They're over four to one,

1161
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:08,719
Speaker 3: they're plus four to twenty five right now. That's Southampton.

1162
00:51:08,880 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 3: We've talked about at their attack, they create chances, they

1163
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 3: just can't finish them. Arsenal's defense is there for the taking.

1164
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 3: I think that, as Anthony noted earlier, a lot of

1165
00:51:18,000 --> 00:51:20,759
Speaker 3: people will just back Arsenal, thinking bounce back spot for

1166
00:51:20,840 --> 00:51:22,640
Speaker 3: this club that we've seen them do it this season

1167
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 3: a couple of times. I'm gonna go the other way Southampton.

1168
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 3: The number is just way too good to pass on

1169
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 3: a decent team against another team that's not much better

1170
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:33,040
Speaker 3: than them right now. So plus four twenty five on

1171
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 3: Ralph Hassen, Hudel Saints BJ. Where are you going?

1172
00:51:36,520 --> 00:51:39,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, the last two weeks we've, at least me and

1173
00:51:39,400 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 1: Anthey I have experienced two of the most horrific losses

1174
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:45,920
Speaker 1: that I've seen so far this season. We had obviously

1175
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,800
Speaker 1: you mentioned d Essad was up to Holst two different

1176
00:51:48,880 --> 00:51:52,000
Speaker 1: times against Lancio and got a red card. Lasi got

1177
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: a red card near the end, and Udnesse needed a

1178
00:51:54,080 --> 00:51:56,759
Speaker 1: lake Gold to draw them four four, and then last

1179
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,080
Speaker 1: week Benisi was up three to nothing at the half

1180
00:51:59,120 --> 00:52:04,040
Speaker 1: against Verona and completely imploded. So I love Gruther now

1181
00:52:04,040 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding. I love Udinessea. This weekend, I'm gonna

1182
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:08,439
Speaker 1: go back to him. I'm ready for another horrific loss.

1183
00:52:08,760 --> 00:52:11,879
Speaker 1: Plus three twenty. Anthony already mentioned it, so I agree

1184
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:13,600
Speaker 1: with pretty much everything he said. The one thing I

1185
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 1: will note ac Milan, including all of their injuries, only

1186
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 1: a plus one point six a non penalty expected build

1187
00:52:19,160 --> 00:52:22,680
Speaker 1: afferential on the road versus An eight point four at home,

1188
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 1: So much worse on the road than they are at home.

1189
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 1: Last season when these two played, Udinesse played Bland pretty well.

1190
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 1: They lost to one at home and drew them one

1191
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 1: to one on the road, but the expected goals combined

1192
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 1: was Milan only was up two point four to one

1193
00:52:35,920 --> 00:52:39,320
Speaker 1: point seven. This is a good Essa team that is

1194
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,120
Speaker 1: due for a lot of positive regression. I think it's

1195
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 1: a good spot for them to pick off Milan and

1196
00:52:43,239 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 1: get at least a point, or not to get at

1197
00:52:44,920 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 1: least a point to win it outright and give us

1198
00:52:46,960 --> 00:52:50,239
Speaker 1: all three points. Uden essay plus three twenty and.

1199
00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:52,319
Speaker 3: Anthony your favorite underdog this week?

1200
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, BJ was mentally hedging there because he knows Udiness

1201
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:56,880
Speaker 2: is going to be up a goal late and concede

1202
00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:59,400
Speaker 2: in stoppage time. I'm going with anstrek Frankfort. I already

1203
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,839
Speaker 2: mentioned why I like plus a half. Naturally, I find

1204
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: their money line to be quite undervalued as well. Going

1205
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,640
Speaker 2: against Leverkusen, who's been much better at home this year

1206
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:08,399
Speaker 2: and they've been on the road, they're expecting goals numbers

1207
00:53:08,440 --> 00:53:12,399
Speaker 2: on the road dead even pretty much, so not quite

1208
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:14,759
Speaker 2: buying into this Leverkusen improvement that we've seen in their

1209
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:18,120
Speaker 2: attack the last few weeks. Leverkusin started last season hot faded.

1210
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,640
Speaker 2: They're going to start this season hot again, probably end

1211
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 2: up in top four because nobody seems to want to

1212
00:53:22,440 --> 00:53:25,040
Speaker 2: be in the Bundesligga at top four. But Frankfurt is

1213
00:53:25,200 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 2: improving marginally and slowly, and so I think eventually we're

1214
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:30,920
Speaker 2: going to start to see that, and you're starting to

1215
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 2: get there where the attack is ticking up a little

1216
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:35,399
Speaker 2: bit and they're not conceding quite as many dumb goals

1217
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:37,720
Speaker 2: they were early in the season. So I'm trak Frankfurt

1218
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:39,960
Speaker 2: the plus two forty and you didn't even mention BJ

1219
00:53:40,120 --> 00:53:42,800
Speaker 2: but last week, Michael and I both won with Everton

1220
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:45,080
Speaker 2: and Adelanta, so that we would have hit the parlay

1221
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:46,520
Speaker 2: and I put pennies on it every week and we

1222
00:53:46,600 --> 00:53:49,759
Speaker 2: were this close. So we're going to get one at

1223
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 2: some point this season.

1224
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 3: I hope we better. If you put these three teams together,

1225
00:53:54,239 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 3: that's Southampton, Unen, Essay and Frankfort into a parlay, it's

1226
00:53:57,200 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: seventy four to one. Anthony said it betting pennies, and

1227
00:53:59,560 --> 00:54:02,120
Speaker 3: if you ruther Fert in there at four to one,

1228
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:04,600
Speaker 3: you're talking three hundred and seventy four to one.

1229
00:54:05,239 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 2: If I bet at ruther Firth money Liner spreads the

1230
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:09,200
Speaker 2: next month, unfollow me in the app.

1231
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,600
Speaker 1: Don't know I'm going to, and don't unfollow me because

1232
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,759
Speaker 1: I love this team. I'm sorry, I know, I know

1233
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:16,719
Speaker 1: they're gonna break my mind.

1234
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 2: I might bet a team total, but I am not

1235
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 2: betting a spread or anything involving their defense for at

1236
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:21,919
Speaker 2: least a couple of weeks.

1237
00:54:22,080 --> 00:54:22,279
Speaker 1: I know.

1238
00:54:22,760 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 3: So I know that in European soccer it's the sports

1239
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:29,440
Speaker 3: betting landscape. They're trying to get the sponsorships out of

1240
00:54:29,520 --> 00:54:32,120
Speaker 3: the game. But ruther Firth, if you're out there listening

1241
00:54:32,160 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 3: and you want to sponsor this part of the program.

1242
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,759
Speaker 3: It's basically all about you. All right, let's wrap this

1243
00:54:37,840 --> 00:54:40,040
Speaker 3: show up with our favorite bets from the Premier League

1244
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 3: this weekend. I'm going to go first. It's the pain

1245
00:54:42,680 --> 00:54:45,880
Speaker 3: Train a Liverpool under Liverpool Acid Villa under three and

1246
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 3: a half minus one fifteen. The Sasin Villa team has

1247
00:54:48,920 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 3: been much better defensively under Steven Gerrard, the Liverpool legend

1248
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:56,239
Speaker 3: coming to anfield to manage against his former team, so

1249
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:58,040
Speaker 3: it could be a little bit of a motivational thing here.

1250
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:00,080
Speaker 3: That's why I don't really hate a little sprinkle on

1251
00:55:00,120 --> 00:55:01,680
Speaker 3: the bill of money line. But the under to me,

1252
00:55:02,200 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 3: we talk about it all the time with Liverpool, like

1253
00:55:04,520 --> 00:55:07,520
Speaker 3: they're across the board. Everything's inflated with them. That includes

1254
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 3: their offensive numbers. So I'm thinking an under three and

1255
00:55:11,239 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 3: a half. It's very hard to score for in a

1256
00:55:12,960 --> 00:55:15,400
Speaker 3: game and you're getting decent odds minus one fifteen on

1257
00:55:15,520 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 3: it to go against, and I trust this Villa defense

1258
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 3: to get that job done against the Liverpool team, by

1259
00:55:19,880 --> 00:55:22,400
Speaker 3: the way, that didn't rest its attackers in a meaningless

1260
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:24,880
Speaker 3: game in the Champions League over the midweek, so this

1261
00:55:24,920 --> 00:55:26,400
Speaker 3: team will be playing a lot of soccer. They've been

1262
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,879
Speaker 3: playing a lot of meaningful matches. I'm taking it under

1263
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 3: and hoping that asa Villa can hang on here under

1264
00:55:32,120 --> 00:55:34,360
Speaker 3: three and a half when it's one fifteen BJ. What

1265
00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:34,759
Speaker 3: about you?

1266
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:38,440
Speaker 1: Southampton plus one minus one thirty at Arsenal. I really

1267
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:41,640
Speaker 1: don't understand this price on Arsenal. They look completely lost

1268
00:55:41,680 --> 00:55:43,680
Speaker 1: after going up a goal against Everton on Monday night.

1269
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:46,000
Speaker 1: Think we're facing a for Southampton that's going to press, press,

1270
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 1: press them a ton and Arsenal is a team that

1271
00:55:48,440 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 1: to be effective they have to have the ball. They're

1272
00:55:50,600 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 1: not very good at sitting back and playing defensively because

1273
00:55:53,320 --> 00:55:56,560
Speaker 1: they hardly ever press. So going against the Southampton offense

1274
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:58,719
Speaker 1: that is top seven and a lot of metrics that

1275
00:55:58,800 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 1: we look at and defense, the one thing they really

1276
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 1: struggle with is giving up big scoring chances. Arsenal only

1277
00:56:04,680 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 1: eleventh in big scoring chances created this season. Blackazette a

1278
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,560
Speaker 1: bomb Yang Our form is way down. I think this

1279
00:56:10,680 --> 00:56:12,960
Speaker 1: is a great spot for Southampton, who has played a

1280
00:56:13,080 --> 00:56:15,560
Speaker 1: lot better than we thought this season. So give me

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00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 1: them plus one at minus one thirty and Anthony bring

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00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:18,759
Speaker 1: this show home.

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00:56:19,120 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, this price seems a little short to me. Chelsea

1284
00:56:21,560 --> 00:56:24,560
Speaker 2: and leads both teams to score yes minus one hundred

1285
00:56:24,960 --> 00:56:28,480
Speaker 2: one ten like it up to one twenty. Chelsea's attack

1286
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:31,360
Speaker 2: Remlucaku's back team of Verner two goals and an assist

1287
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,840
Speaker 2: against Zenet. Seems like the attack is okay, But the

1288
00:56:34,920 --> 00:56:38,320
Speaker 2: midfield engine room that has powered this team and allowed

1289
00:56:38,360 --> 00:56:40,959
Speaker 2: them to completely dominate and really been the main reason

1290
00:56:41,000 --> 00:56:43,000
Speaker 2: that this defense has been so impenetrable for the last

1291
00:56:43,120 --> 00:56:46,720
Speaker 2: year since Toocle took over not quite looking the same. Recently.

1292
00:56:46,880 --> 00:56:48,920
Speaker 2: Edward Mendi seems to be having a bit of a

1293
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:51,640
Speaker 2: dip in his form in terms of shot stopping. Ben

1294
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:54,879
Speaker 2: Chilwell is out and Golocante is out, and we've seen

1295
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:56,839
Speaker 2: that the goals are starting to rack up against the Blues.

1296
00:56:56,920 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 2: The regression that we've talked about so much on this

1297
00:56:58,680 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 2: podcast starting to show itself. I think Leads will get

1298
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,320
Speaker 2: on the board here, but do not trust them in

1299
00:57:04,440 --> 00:57:06,600
Speaker 2: terms of a spread here, because their attack is or

1300
00:57:06,640 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 2: their defense is already sixteenth and non penalty expected goals allowed,

1301
00:57:10,120 --> 00:57:13,040
Speaker 2: and that's without playing Chelsea or Manchester City the first

1302
00:57:13,040 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 2: time around the schedule, so I think they might be

1303
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:18,320
Speaker 2: even worse than that. So Nope, trust them in terms

1304
00:57:18,320 --> 00:57:20,840
Speaker 2: of spread or margin or total. But do think both

1305
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 2: teams will score here, So I like both teams to.

1306
00:57:22,960 --> 00:57:26,120
Speaker 3: Score and that should wrap it up another episode of

1307
00:57:26,160 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 3: Wonder Goal in the books. We will see you all

1308
00:57:28,520 --> 00:57:32,280
Speaker 3: again on Monday morning for another midweek preview as we

1309
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 3: start trudging towards the festive fixtures in a really busy

1310
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 3: part of the soccer schedule. So for Anthony and for Bja,

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Speaker 3: I'm Michael and we will see you then.