1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,959 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin this hour 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 2: with stocks at all time highs following seven straight days 11 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: of games. John Stolfus of Oppenheimer remaining positive on equities 12 00:00:42,720 --> 00:00:45,559 Speaker 2: and saying, quote, the broad rotation which began in the 13 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: rally from last year's s and P five hundred low 14 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:53,040 Speaker 2: on October twenty seven, twenty twenty three, has repeatedly deflective volatility. 15 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: John joined us now for more. John, Good morning, Laury 16 00:00:55,840 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 2: once again yesterday deflecting volatility with that just another day 17 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:00,400 Speaker 2: support for you. 18 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 3: Well, it was another data point, but in a series 19 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,600 Speaker 3: of data points that reflect the change in where we are. 20 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,120 Speaker 3: In essence, what it is is people are beginning to 21 00:01:10,160 --> 00:01:11,960 Speaker 3: realize that this bull. 22 00:01:11,720 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 4: Market has legs. 23 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:16,200 Speaker 3: There is a broadening that is undeniable in terms of 24 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,960 Speaker 3: the way investors have responded to their appetite for equities. 25 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:24,040 Speaker 3: I'd also say, you know, I think from a historical perspective, 26 00:01:24,080 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: a lot of times the market is perceived as a 27 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: place as a hotbed of fear and greed, but it 28 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 3: also represents need. 29 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 4: And the need is extraordinary. 30 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,679 Speaker 3: These days in terms of people's planning, whether it's for 31 00:01:37,720 --> 00:01:40,640 Speaker 3: a kid's education, one's retirement in a world in which 32 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 3: social security may not be any much the part of 33 00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 3: where it has been before. 34 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: These are big themes the next several years, and maybe 35 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: even the next several decades, forever our lifetime. I want 36 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,600 Speaker 2: to deal with the last twenty four aspects and then 37 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: we can get to the bigger themes. Do you not 38 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,720 Speaker 2: think the threat from Donald Trump president like is credible? 39 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 2: Does this market not belyve it's credible? Or is there 40 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,320 Speaker 2: really something to take away from this to sit here 41 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 2: and say, actually, this equity market can handle it. It's 42 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:06,760 Speaker 2: resilient enough. 43 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,200 Speaker 3: A combination of the two in terms of the equity 44 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 3: market being able to handle it. But the important thing 45 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 3: is the market really cares ultimately about revenues and earnings, 46 00:02:19,280 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 3: So areas that will be damaged by an aggressive trade 47 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:25,080 Speaker 3: policy with tariffs that. 48 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 4: Are extreme would be problematic. 49 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:31,399 Speaker 3: That said, I think the market is recognizing that President 50 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 3: Trump is essentially known for a pretty wild negotiation procedures. 51 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 3: I mean, I always like to say when I speak 52 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 3: with investors that I can just imagine if you had 53 00:02:44,200 --> 00:02:46,240 Speaker 3: a property and this would be a small amount of 54 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,640 Speaker 3: money in New York, but you knew was worth about 55 00:02:48,639 --> 00:02:50,680 Speaker 3: one hundred million, and you wanted to sell it to 56 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:53,920 Speaker 3: Donald Trump. My guesstimate is he'd start up with I 57 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:55,360 Speaker 3: think it's worth twenty million. 58 00:02:55,919 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 4: You know, he's a hard negotiator. 59 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 3: And I think the issues here that I think you 60 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 3: mentioned at the beginning, where you're talking about as they 61 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 3: put this the cabinet together, is that this is what 62 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 3: we're dealing with here are genuinely unfair trade situations for 63 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 3: the American worker essentially and for American businesses. And the 64 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,799 Speaker 3: problem is how do you get to right size that 65 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 3: with so many countries really providing support to their businesses 66 00:03:27,400 --> 00:03:31,920 Speaker 3: very different than ours, where we have high regulation, we 67 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: have all. 68 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 4: Kinds of. 69 00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 3: Our labor is much more expensive because we provide better 70 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 3: for our workers. 71 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: So it's fair to say that what you're basically indicating 72 00:03:41,640 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 1: is that this is a market that isn't taking it seriously, 73 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 1: that Trump is actually going to put through any of this, 74 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 1: and that's not what's getting priced into markets at all. 75 00:03:49,240 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 3: Well, I wouldn't say it's not being priced into markets 76 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,280 Speaker 3: at all. The traders certainly reflected just as you mentioned, 77 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 3: one of the automakers yesterday got slammed. You know, when 78 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: you get to that kind of a thing, without a doubt, 79 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 3: there's volatility inherent in this procedure. But it's likely the 80 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 3: whole thing that the Trump ran on was essentially to 81 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 3: be beneficial for the US, and I think this is 82 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:16,919 Speaker 3: these are four years that he's got and he's not 83 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,080 Speaker 3: got four years after this in terms of running again, 84 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 3: So I think they're going to be very sensitive to it. 85 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 4: It should look there's going to be volatility. There always is. 86 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 3: There's always uncertainty, but if you've got to keep your 87 00:04:29,680 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 3: eye on the ball, and it looks like through innovation, 88 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,599 Speaker 3: the process of where we are today and that the 89 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 3: US is the consumer of choice for every vendor in 90 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,160 Speaker 3: the world, puts us into a fairly good position that 91 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 3: the negotiations may originally start out pretty painful to look at, 92 00:04:48,080 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 3: and then things actually work out remarkably better. 93 00:04:51,520 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: Some people are saying this is the fifth year of 94 00:04:54,120 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 1: his administration. Essentially it's a continuation of policies that had 95 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:00,360 Speaker 1: been in place. There are a number of people who 96 00:05:00,440 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 1: begged to differ with that, saying this is a very 97 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:06,200 Speaker 1: different circumstance economically than it was in twenty sixteen. Inflation 98 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: is more of a real risk, there's more momentum. 99 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 4: Companies are already in a good spot. 100 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: The deficit is a lot steeper, and people are worried 101 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: about bond heields. How much does that temper the ability 102 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: to really implement some of these policies. How much are 103 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 1: you watching the bond space to understand how bullish to 104 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: get in equity land? 105 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 3: Oh, we definitely watch the bond space because everything works 106 00:05:29,040 --> 00:05:31,240 Speaker 3: on credit, right, I mean, you know, it doesn't matter 107 00:05:31,240 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 3: if it's related to the consumer's credit card or what 108 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,640 Speaker 3: businesses are doing in terms of their borrowing needs and 109 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 3: refinancings and m and a what have you. But what 110 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 3: we'd have to say is, I think, realistically, you know, 111 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,120 Speaker 3: it's the end of free money, and it's a good thing, 112 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:49,719 Speaker 3: and that bond issuers once again have to pay for 113 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:53,040 Speaker 3: the privilege of borrowing money. Our projection on the ten 114 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:57,520 Speaker 3: year yield is because of the stickiness that's inherent in inflation. 115 00:05:57,640 --> 00:06:01,279 Speaker 3: When you're coming out of a period like this, you're probably. 116 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,400 Speaker 4: The range being priced to range. 117 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 3: It's yield somewhere between three point four percent to as 118 00:06:08,040 --> 00:06:11,240 Speaker 3: high as five. At five, everybody gets freaked out. Then 119 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 3: you get come down back to about four point two 120 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 3: where we are now. But historically, you know, it's go 121 00:06:18,360 --> 00:06:21,680 Speaker 3: back hundreds of years when it comes to ten year borrowing, 122 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 3: four percent tends to be about it, whether you're you're 123 00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:30,760 Speaker 3: borrowing for frankinsense and murr your you know, pepper corn 124 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 3: or whatever venice with you. 125 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: In the Nativity scene. Thanksgiving First, chant let's get some 126 00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: price targets the next year or so. Morgus Stanley sixty 127 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:43,320 Speaker 2: five hundred, BBC sixty six hundred, BEMOS sixty seven, Deutsche 128 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 2: Banks Binkie chat A seven K. Then know why you 129 00:06:45,440 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 2: think about that? I was talking about you yesterday. The 130 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 2: average forecast on the S and P for this year 131 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:53,000 Speaker 2: was forty eight hundred. You were at the high fifty 132 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:56,119 Speaker 2: two hundred, and he won't bullish enough. What's the lesson 133 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 2: a twenty twenty four men, before we get into twenty 134 00:06:58,000 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 2: twenty five, it's the lesson been for you, A real 135 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 2: good question. 136 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 4: It's the second second time you've asked me that question. 137 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 4: What's the lesson been in the year? And it's a 138 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:06,480 Speaker 4: great question. 139 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 2: Last ye. 140 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 4: And we'd have we'd have to stay. 141 00:07:11,000 --> 00:07:13,360 Speaker 3: With this is you know, we started last year last 142 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 3: December we had fifty two hundred. By March we raised 143 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,800 Speaker 3: it to fifty five. By July we went to fifty nine, 144 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 3: and most recently we went to sixty two hundred for 145 00:07:23,000 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 3: this year. The thing that concerns me the most at 146 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 3: this point is that that's what was The people that you. 147 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 4: Mentioned were a mix of bears and bulls who have 148 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 4: these high targets. 149 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 3: So everybody's on the same side of the boat, which 150 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:43,000 Speaker 3: makes the market vulnerable to volatility that can come about 151 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 3: from any piece of economic data, corporate guidance, or anything. 152 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 3: The traders will jump on anything and they'll take it, 153 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 3: and they'll throw a perfectly good stock down like a 154 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 3: hot potato. Okay, meantime, it creates an opportunity for those 155 00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,160 Speaker 3: need investors who are investing intermediate to longer term or 156 00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 3: for their goals and objectives to pick up babies that 157 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 3: get thrown out with the bathwater. So you have to 158 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 3: measure that our target won't come out. 159 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 4: Until mid December. 160 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:14,239 Speaker 3: As usual, we wait until people have gotten pretty crazy 161 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 3: and take a look what happens. But we do have 162 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 3: to say it's rather disconcerting when you hear people throwing 163 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 3: around targets, you know, seven thousand. It sounds dramatic, but 164 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 3: when you actually put it to the calculator, the percentage 165 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 3: upside based on the innovation that exists, the ability for 166 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 3: companies to navigate tougher waters as a result of the 167 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:38,400 Speaker 3: experience that. 168 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,079 Speaker 4: Managers have learned from the Great. 169 00:08:42,840 --> 00:08:48,840 Speaker 3: Financial Crisis, the pandemic, the supply chain disruptions, and then 170 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 3: the balance sheets of the consumer. You know, it looks 171 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 3: like stocks could genuinely go quite a bit. 172 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 2: Seventy people think we can get double digitate cents next year. 173 00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,400 Speaker 2: We've talked about this is well. As human beings we 174 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 2: unconditioned to overweight downside risk. We can spend the whole 175 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: morning talking about downside risk. At LEASTA we'll no doubt 176 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 2: want to do that. What could go right in twenty 177 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 2: twenty five? What do you think could go right? 178 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 3: Well, I think among the things that you could go 179 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,000 Speaker 3: right would be continued resilience in revenue and earnings growth 180 00:09:18,040 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: on a broad basis. 181 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:21,839 Speaker 4: I mean, if you look at the EA page. 182 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 3: On a Bloomberg right now, you've got four sectors with 183 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 3: double digit returns. I think it's eight sectors with I'm sorry, 184 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 3: four sectors with double digit earnings growth. You have eight 185 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 3: with positive earnings growth, and you have three with negative 186 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 3: earnings growth. So the dispersion that you see in that 187 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:45,280 Speaker 3: tells you that you know, it's real. There's things that 188 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,240 Speaker 3: are really working, things that are somewhat working, and some 189 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,360 Speaker 3: things that are and in that kind of an environment, 190 00:09:51,880 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 3: based on what we've seen, the big surprises could be 191 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 3: that resilience continues as an operative word in the markets, 192 00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 3: and that perhaps apps that we see that when the 193 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 3: actual negotiations work out, that the countries involved will actually 194 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 3: come to terms more readily because of the importance of 195 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 3: the American consumer and American business. 196 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: You put that together with something that you said that 197 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:18,720 Speaker 1: when there is a bad headline, the company has just 198 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: get dropped like a hot potato. I'm thinking of Target, 199 00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: Best Buy, Dell, at HP yesterday when they came out 200 00:10:23,920 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: with weakers and expected earnings. What's your lens for knowing 201 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:30,520 Speaker 1: when it's a good opportunity when you should actually. 202 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 4: Pick that up. Well, you know, when we look at companies. 203 00:10:33,760 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 3: One of the reason why I can't mention individual companies, 204 00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,679 Speaker 3: Oppenheimer doesn't like me to pitch my own stocks, right, 205 00:10:38,920 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 3: But when we look at the companies, what we're always 206 00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 3: looking for it's the traditional It sounds a very easy 207 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 3: out to say this, but essentially is good balance sheets, 208 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 3: management that cares about their shareholders and their customers and 209 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 3: their employees, and good ideas that they're managing through and hopefully. 210 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 4: Some kind of an upgrade cycle. In technology. 211 00:11:01,800 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 3: The thing is, we're all on the upgrade cycle, whether 212 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 3: we like it or not. 213 00:11:05,240 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 4: Ultimately, I will have to upgrade both. 214 00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 3: My fourteen my iPhone fourteen neither a recommendation to buy 215 00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:16,400 Speaker 3: or cell applestock, and I will also have to update 216 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 3: my success which. 217 00:11:18,440 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 2: I still can't. 218 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:21,440 Speaker 4: I know, I know, which is is like an old 219 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 4: model tea. 220 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:23,319 Speaker 5: It's like an advertisement. 221 00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 2: John, We're thankful for your optimism. Thank you, sir, I 222 00:11:26,040 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 2: have a happy Thanksgiving with the family. Appreciate it same. 223 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 2: Do you good to see Thank you John stufforstre of Oppenheim, 224 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 2: a former New York Fed President Bill Dudley, wishing him 225 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:47,400 Speaker 2: luck right in the following. Market's exuberant response to his 226 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,800 Speaker 2: nomination certainly suggests this is what investors expects. Yeah, their 227 00:11:50,800 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 2: optimism contrasts sharply with the difficulties he'll encounter in managing 228 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 2: the treasury market, the country's fiscal trajectory, and the broader economy. 229 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,480 Speaker 2: Bill joined just now for more. But welcome to the program, sir. 230 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 2: Let's get to those three points you make, managing the 231 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 2: treasury market, the fiscal trajectory, and the broader economy. Of 232 00:12:07,640 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 2: those three, Bill, what do you think is the biggest task? 233 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:12,559 Speaker 6: Haally managing the fiscal deficits? 234 00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 7: Since the Treasury Secretary doesn't have responsibility for text the 235 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,080 Speaker 7: spending policy, you can opine on it, but can he 236 00:12:18,080 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 7: actually get it through Congress and get the administration to 237 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:21,760 Speaker 7: support it? 238 00:12:22,120 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 6: So I think you know, we're on a trajectory. 239 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 7: Right now where it's six percent of GDP deficits as 240 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 7: far as the eye can see. And President let Trump 241 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 7: has proposed things that will expand the deficit as opposed 242 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 7: to contract the deficit. 243 00:12:34,440 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 6: So I think that the. 244 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,920 Speaker 7: Fiscal OUTLOK longer term is probably the most challenging thing 245 00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 7: that he faces. 246 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,560 Speaker 2: But he gets some say on the maturity profile of 247 00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 2: US treasuries. What's your take of what's developed under Secretary 248 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:47,719 Speaker 2: Yeller at the Treasury and what changes would you anticipate 249 00:12:47,920 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 2: in the is to come under Beston? 250 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:52,400 Speaker 7: Well, things didn't move a lot under Yell, and I 251 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 7: think the maturity structure shortened a little bit. 252 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 6: To Treasury typically doesn't want to. 253 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 7: Move around the Treasury issuance calendar a lot because it 254 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:03,239 Speaker 7: basically unnerves market participants. 255 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 6: They regular and predictable is sort of the watchword of 256 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 6: the Treasury. 257 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 7: So I would be surprised if Best at todaything that 258 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 7: significantly changed the maturity structure of the Treasury debt. I 259 00:13:13,280 --> 00:13:15,480 Speaker 7: think the biggest problem the problem he faces is to 260 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 7: convince his colleagues in the administration that we need more 261 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 7: tax revenue, we need to control spending, and that requires, 262 00:13:24,360 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 7: you know, make some tip difficult choices. 263 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,800 Speaker 1: Bill, if you were still on the Fed, how would 264 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 1: you think about some of the policies and the personnel 265 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: that have been implemented are now so far and factor 266 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: that into. 267 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 5: Your outlook for next year. 268 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 4: You have to come out with a forecast. 269 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,319 Speaker 1: You've got to make a dot next month. 270 00:13:41,640 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 4: How do you even begin to do that? 271 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,280 Speaker 7: Yeah, so far, the FED has been very silent about 272 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,800 Speaker 7: President elect Trump. There is nothing, for example, in the 273 00:13:48,880 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 7: minutes about the election in the new policy mix. I think, 274 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:54,679 Speaker 7: you know, to the extent that things get priced into 275 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:57,040 Speaker 7: financial market is sort of hard for the FED to 276 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,440 Speaker 7: then ignore them, because if you have prices bodying a 277 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:03,120 Speaker 7: certain expectation, how do you not include those prices in 278 00:14:03,160 --> 00:14:08,160 Speaker 7: your forecast. Back in December twenty sixteen, the FED staff 279 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:12,320 Speaker 7: put a big fiscal stimulus in their forecast for twenty seventeen. 280 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,479 Speaker 7: So when Paula says, we don't assume, we don't speculate, 281 00:14:15,679 --> 00:14:19,160 Speaker 7: we don't guess. The reality is if the markets start 282 00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 7: to judge that something is highly likely, then the FED 283 00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 7: has to sort of take that. 284 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 6: On board in terms of their own thinking. 285 00:14:24,960 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 7: I think the biggest issue in the very short term 286 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 7: is what's going to happen to territs, because if tarofts 287 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 7: are raised to any close to the degree that the 288 00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 7: President elect Trump is talking about it's going to be inflationary, 289 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 7: it's going to be bad for growth, it's going to 290 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,200 Speaker 7: be bad for proactivity. And PRESIDENTLEC. Trump's talking about putting 291 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:46,400 Speaker 7: on tarifts on China, Canada, Mexico, you know, on day one, 292 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 7: So that's probably the thing that's going to happen most quickly. 293 00:14:50,080 --> 00:14:52,320 Speaker 7: The fiscal stuff is going to take longer because the 294 00:14:52,360 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 7: tax cuts don't expire to the end of twenty twenty five, 295 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 7: so that's probably more of a twenty twenty sixth story. 296 00:14:57,200 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 1: You know, you said that tariffs are going to be inflationary. 297 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 1: We've heard some disagreement about that around this table. Some 298 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 1: people say that maybe in the very short term there's 299 00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: a one time price increase, but longer term in tariffs 300 00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: have been shown to be disinflationary time and again, why 301 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,200 Speaker 1: do you think that that's not going to be the case. 302 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 7: Well, they're disinflationary to the extent that the people who 303 00:15:17,320 --> 00:15:19,800 Speaker 7: are buying these now more expensive goods don't have as 304 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 7: much real income and so they can't buy as much 305 00:15:22,680 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 7: and that hurts the growth rate of the economy. 306 00:15:25,920 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 6: So there is an effect on growth. 307 00:15:28,520 --> 00:15:30,800 Speaker 7: The key question of terrorists is when prices go up 308 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 7: to they get into wages. You know, the first Trump 309 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:38,280 Speaker 7: term increase in terrorists was well advertised, but the magnitude 310 00:15:38,360 --> 00:15:40,160 Speaker 7: is actually quite small, went from about one a half 311 00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 7: percent of imports to three percent of imports. 312 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:44,120 Speaker 6: The magnitudes he's talking about this. 313 00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:47,400 Speaker 7: Time are much much larger, So the price effect will 314 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,640 Speaker 7: be much greater. And I would expect that's at least 315 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 7: some of that will get into wages, and if it 316 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 7: gets into wages, then it keeps going. 317 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:53,840 Speaker 6: It's not a one time effect. 318 00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 4: Bill. 319 00:15:54,320 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: Do you think that because of the uncertainty around policy 320 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: and the potential for some of these policies to be inflationary, 321 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,400 Speaker 1: do you think on the margins that can push more 322 00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:05,600 Speaker 1: members to really want to go even slower when it 323 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: comes to rate cuts. 324 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 6: Eventually. 325 00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:11,320 Speaker 7: I think right now the Fed still on a you know, 326 00:16:11,440 --> 00:16:15,520 Speaker 7: Madre policies restrictive, the dual mandate objectives of employment inflation 327 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 7: are roughly imbalanced. We need to head towards neutral, and 328 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 7: so I think there's still a trajectory to go towards neutral. 329 00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 7: But I think, you know, as they said more and 330 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:28,200 Speaker 7: more recently carefully, so December is not a done deal. 331 00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 6: I think it's probably more likely than not. At this point. 332 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 7: It basically depends on the economic data, and you know 333 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 7: the FED is basically data depended at this point. 334 00:16:35,920 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 6: This is the one reason why Bessett's. 335 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 7: Idea of putting in a shadow governor that Fed to 336 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 7: basically make pronouncements as Powell's air apparent, makes a little sense, 337 00:16:46,800 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 7: because what the FED. 338 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 6: Does over the next year is really going to be 339 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 6: driven by Defense Bill. 340 00:16:51,480 --> 00:16:53,680 Speaker 2: How messy would that be if we had a shadow 341 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:55,600 Speaker 2: chair in the middle of next year. 342 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 7: I think it's a absolutely terrible idea. I think one, 343 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 7: I don't think it would do much. Number two just 344 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 7: annoy all the other members of the Federal Reserve. So 345 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 7: you have this shadowed person coming in to be chair 346 00:17:08,359 --> 00:17:11,119 Speaker 7: after he's probably annoyed everybody else within the Federal Reserve 347 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 7: system by undercutting the current chairman. 348 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:15,560 Speaker 6: That doesn't sound like a good recipe for success. 349 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 7: When you think about the chairman's power comes from its 350 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 7: ability to move the committee in a chief consensus. So 351 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,920 Speaker 7: I think the share chairman the chaff chairman, if he 352 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:26,439 Speaker 7: did what best at the implies that he would do 353 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,560 Speaker 7: would alienate most of his colleagues on the FED. 354 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,160 Speaker 2: Bill Dudley. Thank you, sir, the former New York Fed 355 00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 2: President of the Federal Reserve through the next year. Thankful 356 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:46,679 Speaker 2: this morning because we get these second chance of speaking 357 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 2: to Situ rich candoundly for us to research to reach it. 358 00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 2: We'll try again. Thanks for being able to understand. You 359 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,359 Speaker 2: heard the question, but you didn't get to answer it. 360 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 2: So we'll start there again. Department stores, it's been a 361 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 2: struggle for a long long time. What aren't they doing right? 362 00:17:58,760 --> 00:18:00,680 Speaker 2: What do they need to fix? Its fixable? 363 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:04,240 Speaker 5: Well, I don't know that it's really fixable. 364 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 8: It's really a sector issue, which is really it's widespread. 365 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 8: It's because consumers just haven't been shopping as much, particularly 366 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 8: in the B and C tier malls where a lot 367 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 8: of these department stores have heavy concentration. We're talking about Mac's, 368 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 8: We're talking about Coals, of. 369 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,359 Speaker 5: Course, JAYC. Penny. 370 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:26,199 Speaker 8: These are the anchor stores that really thrived in like 371 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 8: the nineteen eighties and even before, but essentially since two 372 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:34,280 Speaker 8: thousand they have been on a downturn. A ton of 373 00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:38,800 Speaker 8: competition certainly from e commerce, certainly from higher ends stores 374 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,760 Speaker 8: and brands really that have decided to all go direct 375 00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 8: to consumer. So that's been some of their biggest challenge. 376 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 8: And I don't know that it's necessarily fixable. It's really 377 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 8: a shift in the retail landscape altogether. 378 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: Streida, What does this mean in terms of just how 379 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: much this land could shift going forward? 380 00:18:57,280 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 4: Because if the. 381 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: Whole model of a strip mall is outdated, well there's 382 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: a lot more carnage to come. 383 00:19:03,440 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 4: Well. 384 00:19:03,720 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 8: We've talked about the transformation of these retail venues for 385 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:09,760 Speaker 8: a long time, and a lot of it is about 386 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:13,720 Speaker 8: switching out the real estate with other anchor tenants, or 387 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:18,199 Speaker 8: breaking up the anchor tenants into smaller plots where you 388 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,680 Speaker 8: have perhaps smaller tenants that are in them. We've seen 389 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,160 Speaker 8: these anchor tenants switch to everything from grocery stores which 390 00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 8: are growing, to gyms and fitness facilities. In some cases, 391 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 8: it could just be a mixed use facility where you're 392 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 8: transforming it into some sort of an office space and 393 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 8: really really distressed areas. We've seen some of these anchor 394 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:44,000 Speaker 8: tenants become churches or schools or things completely unrelated to retail. 395 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,760 Speaker 1: All I can say is I provide some research at home, 396 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:52,000 Speaker 1: some research regarding retail with some of the family members, 397 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 1: and I hear a lot about drops of different types 398 00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 1: of products and different influencers that are doing said drops. 399 00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,600 Speaker 1: Is the entire mo model of retail fundamentally changing in 400 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,520 Speaker 1: a way that some retailers like Gap are really aware of, 401 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:08,760 Speaker 1: others are kind of struggling to really get on board with. 402 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 8: Well, there is no question that the Internet has absolutely 403 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 8: changed it. And you were talking a lot about Amazon earlier. 404 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 8: That's certainly the biggest player, but definitely the social media is. 405 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 8: The social media players are also impacting how people discover goods, 406 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,919 Speaker 8: where they actually shop for goods, and what we're seeing 407 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 8: even within e commerce is a lot of fragmentation, particularly 408 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 8: with smaller, lesser known players that are able to gain 409 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 8: some traction because they are able to get some influencer 410 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 8: credibility for a short period of time. Now, if they're lucky, 411 00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 8: some of them will end up getting purchased by larger players. 412 00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 8: At some of the beauty companies have been purchased by 413 00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,359 Speaker 8: Laureal or State Lauder, but that's usually the dream exit 414 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 8: strategy for a lot of these companies. In many cases 415 00:20:58,040 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 8: they simply may go away and other influencers come and take. 416 00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,000 Speaker 2: So to read the two key dates now January fifteenth, 417 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,119 Speaker 2: Poor discussions. Twentieth President Donald Trump comes in with a 418 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 2: big promise to hi c up tariffs. What do these 419 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,960 Speaker 2: companies do now with inventory? How much do they need 420 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,360 Speaker 2: to stalk ahead of time? And what did they learn? 421 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,000 Speaker 2: Are they conditioned by the mistake the target made? 422 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:27,159 Speaker 8: Well, the truth is that it is probably if you 423 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,439 Speaker 8: are if you're looking for what is going to happen 424 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 8: in January, it may be a little too late already. 425 00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 5: These are issues that. 426 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 8: The retail industry has been grappling with since the first 427 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 8: Trump administration, and what we started to see was diversification 428 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,520 Speaker 8: away from some of these tariff markets like China over time, 429 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 8: and I expect that that will continue to happen there will. 430 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 5: The good thing. 431 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,920 Speaker 8: Is is that Q one tends to be a soft 432 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 8: quorterer in retail anyway, so it doesn't seem like it 433 00:21:56,600 --> 00:21:59,080 Speaker 8: makes a ton of sense to be stalking up inventory 434 00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:01,240 Speaker 8: for them, especially becaus you don't know what the demand 435 00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 8: is going to be like in twenty twenty five without 436 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 8: better signals, because it is such an uncertain economy at 437 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 8: this moment in time. So I think that what we 438 00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:14,120 Speaker 8: will continue to see is diversification, will continue to see 439 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 8: changes to supply chain. There will be questions around whether 440 00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:22,640 Speaker 8: or not Latin America and Mexico are in fact good 441 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 8: places to be near shoring, versus if they too will 442 00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,679 Speaker 8: have tariffs, particularly on some of those soft goods. 443 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 5: So a lot I think is still TBD, and. 444 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 2: If you get it wrong, you get targeted quite literally 445 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,719 Speaker 2: suchar Into Kadali. As far as the research. This is 446 00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sevenants podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, antiopolitics. 447 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday 448 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to 449 00:22:50,160 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 450 00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg 451 00:22:56,280 --> 00:22:56,880 Speaker 2: Business app