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Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene, along

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Speaker 1: with Jonathan Farrell and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day

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Speaker 1: for insight from the best an economics, geopolitics, finance and investment.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and

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Speaker 1: anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 2: Great guest in the studio with us, Jenning and Manuel

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Speaker 2: I've ever court didn't good to see. Good morning mate,

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Speaker 2: good morning. Let's start here this week and video. Then

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Speaker 2: we've got Chairman Powell throwing China into the mix as well.

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Speaker 2: If you're coming back from the beach based and confused

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Speaker 2: and you had to pick one right now, what should

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Speaker 2: you be focused on?

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Speaker 3: Sorry, there is no pick one here. All of them matter,

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Speaker 3: and to us, that is a large part of why

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Speaker 3: we've seen the market drift gently lower, people taking risk off.

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Speaker 3: This is not an end of bull market run. This

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Speaker 3: is just a correction, normal seasonal. Again, I would say

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Speaker 3: what's really important is less what we're gonna hear from Nvidia,

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Speaker 3: less what we're gonna hear from chair Powell less what

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Speaker 3: we hear overnight. We obviously had some moves from China

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Speaker 3: and more the price action in response to all of

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Speaker 3: these things, and frankly, it's an open question as to

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Speaker 3: what we're going to see in terms of the price

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Speaker 3: of What everybody.

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Speaker 1: Wants to know is a dovetail Julian Emmanuel's equity work

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Speaker 1: in with Ed Hyman's economics. Ed has been out front

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Speaker 1: believing in the disinflationary trend. Is he still have that

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Speaker 1: in place? And how do you dovetail that into an

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Speaker 1: equity call?

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Speaker 3: Absolutely? Absolutely. Ed continues to think that inflation is going

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Speaker 3: to come down much more rapidly than people believe, and

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Speaker 3: of course part of that is we're likely to have

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Speaker 3: a very mild downturn early next year. But when you

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Speaker 3: pull back and you think about the implications for investing,

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Speaker 3: there are actually three lessons from the nineties that we

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Speaker 3: need to learn here. Number One, we understand the run

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Speaker 3: up into technology with AI et cetera, et cetera. We

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Speaker 3: think that's real. But the other thing there is that

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Speaker 3: there is a time such as we saw in the nineties,

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Speaker 3: where markets do pull back. But the more important thing

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Speaker 3: is we've been talking about yields already this morning. Is

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Speaker 3: that you were able to make money in stocks in

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Speaker 3: the nineties when yields we're five and six percent, and

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Speaker 3: this same thing is going to happen in the next

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Speaker 3: twenty four months.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, That's what we were talking about with Ediar Denny

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Speaker 4: last week, which is we've seen this movie before and

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Speaker 4: it's fine. We talk about China. Is there any silver

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Speaker 4: lining in the disinflation that we see over there kind

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Speaker 4: of creating more disinflation in the US in Europe? Or

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Speaker 4: do not buy that with some people are putting out there.

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Speaker 3: Well, Chair Powell would love to be a to think that.

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Speaker 3: I don't think he's going to discuss that on Friday.

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Speaker 3: It's very marginal. If you look back at the episodes

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Speaker 3: where China weakened incrementally, they had a volatility inducing effect

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Speaker 3: in the US, very temporary. As we know, the US

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Speaker 3: is very much its own engine.

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Speaker 2: We've seen some divergence. Do you sense that divergence can

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Speaker 2: continue between what's developing here in the United States and

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Speaker 2: what's developing in China.

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Speaker 3: So that there is a point to which it cannot, Okay,

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Speaker 3: which is why again, what's so important is exactly are

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Speaker 3: we going to have a whatever it takes moment in China.

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Speaker 3: Or conversely, if we have what the market perceives to

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Speaker 3: be a whatever it takes moment, is it going to

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Speaker 3: be that famed Greenspan phrase pushing on a string. It's

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Speaker 3: an open question.

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Speaker 1: I look at the equity market. I want to go

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Speaker 1: back to what your Denny Lisa brought up the brilliant

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Speaker 1: interview they did with your Danny last week, and what

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Speaker 1: ed feels and what we all lived in ninety four

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Speaker 1: ninety four had almost a Malays and then boom, ninety

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Speaker 1: five moonshot. Can you call here a second leg of

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Speaker 1: a bull market at some point out there? Given the

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Speaker 1: emotion the Malays we're in right now, we.

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Speaker 3: Think it lies ahead, We think you have to go through.

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Speaker 3: And again this is another lesson of the nineties, right,

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Speaker 3: is that the technological revolution that we think we're undergoing

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Speaker 3: right now with generative AI, it didn't negate the idea

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Speaker 3: of a recession. It postponed it. And I think that's

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Speaker 3: part of the narrative. We are going to have a

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Speaker 3: recession at some point. Business cycles are not canceled from

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Speaker 3: things like this.

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Speaker 4: So where are you looking to really see the ramifications

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Speaker 4: of a new higher rate world. You were talking about

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Speaker 4: how we've seen five percent yields before in stocks keep rallying,

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Speaker 4: but some areas fell out of bed. Are you looking

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Speaker 4: for there to be similar carnage and small pockets that

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Speaker 4: cannot survive at rates that are as high as they

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Speaker 4: are after growing up during an era of zero rates.

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Speaker 3: Well profitless tech that's going to have to refinance over

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Speaker 3: the next several years will certainly be under stress. But

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Speaker 3: think about it in an environment where rates are high,

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Speaker 3: inflation is still high, and economic growth I mean GDP

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Speaker 3: now is pushing six percent this quarter. That's an unfathomable number.

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Speaker 3: That's where value largely forgotten energy and healthcare looks interesting

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Speaker 3: to us. And if you're a hedger, the fact that

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Speaker 3: interest rates are over five percent is very very good

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Speaker 3: math for optional strategy.

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Speaker 1: And Hymen has no clients who are under seventy years old.

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Speaker 1: We all know that. But for the ute of evercore

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Speaker 1: ISI like yourself, how do you and Hymen and arrest,

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Speaker 1: how do you explain to people who have never enjoyed

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Speaker 1: high interest rates a legitimate, a real yield, a legitimate

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Speaker 1: risk free rate. How do you explain to them that

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Speaker 1: we didn't all die and roll over in the nineties.

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Speaker 3: So what's fascinating about it is if you remember, for

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Speaker 3: much of the post financial crisis world, there was an

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Speaker 3: angst every time the market started rallying and there was

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Speaker 3: a feeling like it was going to run away. Why

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Speaker 3: because you couldn't make anything on your cash. Okay, this

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Speaker 3: time people are like, okay, I'm good, I'm still getting

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Speaker 3: five percent on my cash, which, actually, if you think

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Speaker 3: about it, is the thing that feeds the longevity, multi

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Speaker 3: year longevity of a bull market.

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Speaker 2: The demo goes beyond the seventy plus demo, doesn't it.

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Speaker 2: For research over evicre, what's he talking about? What's he

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Speaker 2: talking about?

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Speaker 3: I'll tell you what. Given the work that we've done

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Speaker 3: on Generative AI to have the twenties and the thirties

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Speaker 3: people and interact, we've got it. We've got it all covered.

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Speaker 2: EA ten of Jon.

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Speaker 1: Always watching as Amanda Lina, who was brilliant the last

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Speaker 1: time she was on. She's had a macro credit research.

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Speaker 1: This is withour Q question in our fixed Income Interview

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Speaker 1: of the day. Amanda, thank you so much. I want

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Speaker 1: to go to the Nittegrita of what you do. You

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Speaker 1: have depth that is fixed fixed coupon dynamics floating like

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Speaker 1: John's really familiar with in Europe and England, which is

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Speaker 1: where the yield floats around given the movement, and then

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Speaker 1: you've got CIRI commercial real estate and all the tobacco there.

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Speaker 1: How unstable or potentially unstable. Is a fixed income world

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Speaker 1: right now?

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Speaker 5: Good morning, Thank you all for having me. I think

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Speaker 5: they're all impacted by this higher cost of capital environment

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Speaker 5: that we're expecting, and Lisa, you alluded at the start

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Speaker 5: of the program, is this the new normal? And I

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Speaker 5: think the key difference between what you highlighted, Tom is

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Speaker 5: that for the fixed income fixed rate part of the market,

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Speaker 5: they're getting impacted on a different timeline than the floating

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Speaker 5: rate part of the market. And in that floating rate

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Speaker 5: part of the market, specifically the broadly syndicated leverage loan market,

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Speaker 5: you are seeing an uptick in defaults and this is

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Speaker 5: something that's been happening for the past few months, but

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Speaker 5: the magnitude of the pace of leverage loan defaults outpacing

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Speaker 5: the fixed rate hiled bond space has been notable. It's

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Speaker 5: the widest margin since the Moodies data began in nineteen

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Speaker 5: ninety six. We see scope for that to continue even

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Speaker 5: though it is unusual, and that's because we are expecting

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Speaker 5: this higher for longer cost of capital environment. The other

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Speaker 5: two things I would point to is that the fixed

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Speaker 5: rate investment grade universe is much better positioned to manage

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Speaker 5: through that higher cost of capital environment because they just

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Speaker 5: have more optionality in terms of refinancing. So we don't

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Speaker 5: always rely on ratings as a barometer for performance, but

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Speaker 5: I think in this instance, being investment grade, having the

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Speaker 5: ability to replace maturities at a later date instead of

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Speaker 5: refinance them is going to be helpful. And then on

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Speaker 5: the point on cire Tom, I think really nothing in

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Speaker 5: the news flow over the past few weeks has changed

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Speaker 5: our view that were in the early stages of the

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Speaker 5: distress cycle in CRE, and I think, in fact the

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Speaker 5: newsflow recently has reinforced that view, and it's it's a

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Speaker 5: combination of refinancings.

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Speaker 2: Save us John Hiyold spread is still super tight and

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Speaker 2: for the year, and this is happening even with a

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Speaker 2: high for longer conversation around the Federal Reserve. You know

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Speaker 2: where that maturity wall is, so walk us through it.

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Speaker 2: Why I spreads, this tie when we face the risk

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Speaker 2: of that maturity will kicking in lights next year.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 5: So two things. One, as it relates to the timing

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Speaker 5: of the refinancing, the maturity, while we know begins in

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty five, high old corporates will want to address

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Speaker 5: that twelve months or more beforehand so that the debt

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Speaker 5: doesn't become current. That has implications for the audit. So

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Speaker 5: we still have some time. And as we've noted, high

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Speaker 5: old corporates in particular have the luxury of being patient

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Speaker 5: because they've been so proactive about liquidity raising in twenty

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Speaker 5: twenty and twenty twenty one, and it was not unusual

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Speaker 5: during that kind of period right after COVID the onset

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Speaker 5: of it, where corporates were pre funding three four years

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Speaker 5: in advance. So we've got some time. The second point

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Speaker 5: that I would note on the spreads, and this is

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Speaker 5: a conversation we've been having or with clients, there's this

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Speaker 5: relative value tug of war happening in the credit market

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Speaker 5: where spreads in isolation are quite tight, but for yield

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Speaker 5: based buyers, the elevated risk free rate, which has intensified

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Speaker 5: most recently as you've all been discussing is giving them

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Speaker 5: some cushion to deploy capital at still relatively attractive all

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Speaker 5: in yields from a historical perspective, and so ironically even

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Speaker 5: those spreads are quite snug. The overall value that's provided

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Speaker 5: by corporate credit, because it's boosted by the risk free rate,

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Speaker 5: has insulated that to some degree.

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Speaker 4: How transformed is high yield as an asset class, because

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Speaker 4: in some ways it's the new investment grade and private

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Speaker 4: credit is the new high yield. We're looking at an

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Speaker 4: entire spectrum of lending below the covers that's taking over

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Speaker 4: and buffering some of the financial pain that would otherwise

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Speaker 4: might be seeing in some of the high yield names.

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Speaker 5: That's right, So the high yield universe in particular has

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Speaker 5: had much more overlap in recent years with the investment

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Speaker 5: grade landscape because there's been this fallen angel rising star

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Speaker 5: dynamic that has really intensified. So you've seen names move

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Speaker 5: I think a little more seamlessly than we would have

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Speaker 5: guessed in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen between the two markets,

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Speaker 5: and the highield market has shown its ability to absorb

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Speaker 5: those capital structures. There have also been some really meaningful

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Speaker 5: shifts in sector composition, the high old market serving a

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Speaker 5: larger and larger borrower, you know, changes in maturity and

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Speaker 5: duration and sector skews. Energy is not as problematic in

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Speaker 5: this cycle as it has been in the past. Those

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Speaker 5: are all those are all probably contributing to this tight

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Speaker 5: spread environment and high yield in private credit. We have

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Speaker 5: a very favorable view of it as an asset class,

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Speaker 5: specifically in an environment like this where you can introduce

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Speaker 5: some granularity and some selectivity to deploying. But to your point,

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Speaker 5: the one and a half trillion dollar asset class is

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Speaker 5: a relatively post financial crisis phenomenon, and so it makes

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Speaker 5: things like we've looked data and prior cycles like the

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Speaker 5: Senior Loan Officer Survey perhaps less directionally correlated into the

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Speaker 5: broader state of the market, because you now have this

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Speaker 5: asset class that's allowing corporates to diversify their funding away

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Speaker 5: from the banking channel that wasn't in place to as

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Speaker 5: much of a degree pre financial crisis. And so when

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Speaker 5: you think about bank lending contraction and that automatically leading

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Speaker 5: to a recession, that may not be the case as

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Speaker 5: much directly this time around, because you've got this other

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Speaker 5: source of funding. But as it relates to private credit,

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Speaker 5: I think if you're in an environment where you really

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Speaker 5: need to be granular about company's ability to absorb higher

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Speaker 5: costs manage through a higher cost of capital environment, you

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Speaker 5: want to be more selective and granular. And I think

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Speaker 5: parts of private credit, specifically senior direct lending, allow you

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Speaker 5: to do that in a higher cost of capital environment.

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Speaker 2: The Clinic has always Amanda just wonderfully.

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Speaker 1: Joining us right now on China the definitive conversation of

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Speaker 1: the day. William Lee joins us with all of his

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Speaker 1: work at the International Monetary Fund, chief economist at Milkin Institute.

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Speaker 1: Anybody that watches surveillance knows he is beyond pression. I

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Speaker 1: want you to peel back the curtain, doctor Lee, right now,

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Speaker 1: particularly on the three cities. What's the level of sweat,

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Speaker 1: what's the level of panic in Beijing?

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Speaker 6: It is huge, John and Tom. When you were asking

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Speaker 6: who's the policy maker in China when you talk about

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Speaker 6: state capitalism, there's only one policy maker. That's Shijinping. And

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Speaker 6: when you have once policymaker who is interested in not

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Speaker 6: only preserving the economy, but also preserving his own position

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Speaker 6: and consolidating power. There's only one set of solutions, which

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Speaker 6: is you gotta get the private sector under control, and that,

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Speaker 6: unfortunately is their achilles heel because right now, to restore

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Speaker 6: Chinese economy, to get youth unemployment down, to get growth

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Speaker 6: going again, you need the private sector. But who in

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Speaker 6: the private sector is going to trust the policies of

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Speaker 6: the CCP.

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Speaker 1: What is the importance of the dry up of investment

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Speaker 1: from America, investment from the Western world. Within all the

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Speaker 1: great work I've seen, doctor Lee, the number one thing

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Speaker 1: I'm focused on is we've lost our trust with investment

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Speaker 1: in China. How important is that? Oh?

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Speaker 6: That that is absolutely critical. The discussion at most of

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Speaker 6: the meetings here at Milkin among our sponsors, who are

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Speaker 6: some of the biggest investors in the world, they all

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Speaker 6: asking how do we do due diligence in China when

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Speaker 6: the information is controlled by the policy maker? The policy

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Speaker 6: maker Chijinping private sources of information that they normally relied

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Speaker 6: on to do due diligence, even on the company level,

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Speaker 6: are now restricted. So when you restrict information flow and

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Speaker 6: when we direct common prosperity themes that essentially say to

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Speaker 6: people you can be successful, but not too successful, it's

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Speaker 6: certainly not too powerful. Those are the kind of vulnerabilities

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Speaker 6: and risks that Western investors are now facing, and they're

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Speaker 6: asking the question, do we really need to go to China?

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Speaker 6: Are there other places that you go?

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Speaker 4: Which raised us a question. Is Jijiping and his party

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Speaker 4: not stimulating the economy as much as people expected because

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Speaker 4: they don't want to or because they can't well.

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Speaker 6: Lisa, as you know, I've come on so many times

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Speaker 6: talking about the fiscal policy tools they have, the fiscal space,

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Speaker 6: they have, The degree to which they can increase fiscal

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Speaker 6: spending depends on a lot of the health of the

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Speaker 6: local governments, and local governments are now so indebted they

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Speaker 6: can't sell more land to finance more infrastructure spending, which

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Speaker 6: has been their main fiscal tool, and so right now

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Speaker 6: I think they're pretty constrained. And when the rem and

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Speaker 6: bee is dropping like a rock, it's very hard for

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Speaker 6: the central bank to be dropping interest rates. And so

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Speaker 6: we have these five to ten basis point moves that

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Speaker 6: I mean, this is truly a situation where mantre policy

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Speaker 6: is pushing on the stream. When everyone who has lost

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Speaker 6: confidence the private sector can be survivable. We are asking

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Speaker 6: them to go borrow money at even five or ten

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Speaker 6: basis points, that's not going to make any difference at all.

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Speaker 4: When I talk with different investors, some of them say,

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Speaker 4: maybe this is actually a positive fit thing for the

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Speaker 4: rest of the economy globally because this will import disinflation.

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Speaker 2: To the rest of the world.

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Speaker 4: Do you buy this argument.

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Speaker 6: I think it's positive for the rest of the economy

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Speaker 6: because Xi Jinping's plan is to make China into a

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Speaker 6: domestic economy and high value out of production. That means

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Speaker 6: low value out of production is moving out to the

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Speaker 6: rest of Asia and other locations. And that's where I

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Speaker 6: think the capital flows are helping the rest of the world.

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Speaker 6: But in terms of the Chinese economy, it's going to

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Speaker 6: be a real hat trick to be able to revive

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Speaker 6: the private sector, redirect an innovation in the direction of

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Speaker 6: these high tech and high value added industries, and to

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Speaker 6: pull it off successfully right now with such low credibility.

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Speaker 1: So what is the to do list for Beijing? Do

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Speaker 1: they use the formulas that have been proven beyond MAO.

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Speaker 1: Do they as the consensuses, stay with MAO formulas it

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Speaker 1: didn't work. What's their almost their here on on a

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Speaker 1: day to day basis, what do you expect to see,

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Speaker 1: doctor Lee?

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Speaker 6: They didn't. They need to make structural policy into countercyclical policy.

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Speaker 6: For example, if they put in a social safety net,

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Speaker 6: that would immediately cut out the need for privacy built.

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Speaker 1: So I'm going to interrupt you there. We've looked for

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Speaker 1: a social safety net since you and I were in

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Speaker 1: our youth. You were back at the IMF running into

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Speaker 1: me in a hallway. There's no social safety net, there's

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Speaker 1: no dominant consumer. It's the same old, same old for Beijing.

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Speaker 1: Do they stay with that script or can they actually

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Speaker 1: do something.

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Speaker 6: If they don't change the script, then you're going to

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Speaker 6: have these rising inequalities generate social unrest, and that's the

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Speaker 6: last thing they are able to tolerate. So, yes, you

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Speaker 6: and I have talked about social When I was mission

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Speaker 6: chief at Singapore, I suggested social safety net for Singapore

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Speaker 6: and then two years later they actually put one in.

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Speaker 6: So maybe if we talked about it long enough and

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Speaker 6: they'll realize that it's either social safety net and allow

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Speaker 6: people to feel safe and they don't need to save

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Speaker 6: as much for themselves, which means they consume more, or

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Speaker 6: you get social unrests and if those are the trade

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Speaker 6: offs I think will go towards safety nets, and this.

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Speaker 2: Is one that youth unemployment number is just so important

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Speaker 2: at the moment. Bill, Thank you, sir, Bill. Leader of

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Speaker 2: the Milk and Institute, Wendy sh of Brown University joined

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Speaker 2: us right now. Wendy, wonderful to start a political converage

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Speaker 2: this week with you going get into that debate on Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: What is the argument for the former president showing up

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Speaker 2: with posts like this one?

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Speaker 7: Well, I mean, you know, it's a rose garden strategy

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Speaker 7: as an incumbent quote unquote in the Republican Party, so

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Speaker 7: it's hard to argue he should show up with such

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Speaker 7: a big lead. But you don't want to, you know,

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Speaker 7: not be there to volley off your criticisms and presuming

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Speaker 7: Chris Christy is going to show up ready to fight

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Speaker 7: and sort of make the argument that Trump is not

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Speaker 7: the guy, then you know, that's just criticisms that can stick.

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Speaker 7: The other question is, well, any of the other candidates

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Speaker 7: actually criticized Donald Trump on that stage. It's like criticizing

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Speaker 7: a ghost. Remember, you know Eastwood sort of stunt in

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Speaker 7: twenty twelve for the Republicans at the convention with an

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Speaker 7: empty chair that didn't work very well. So I think

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Speaker 7: Trump knows that he knows television, he knows how things resonate,

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Speaker 7: and he figures much harder to attack him if he's

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Speaker 7: not physically there.

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Speaker 1: Wendy a pregnant question if I may ender this debate

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Speaker 1: in the start of the political season, William Jennings Bryan.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of parallels here, and it was Gold

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Speaker 1: and Silver eighteen ninety six and all that. But the

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Speaker 1: answer is, after William Jennings Brian, the Republican Party retook

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Speaker 1: the high ground the East Coast business oriented agricultural Party,

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Speaker 1: if you will, what happens after Trump? I mean, with

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Speaker 1: this dominance that he has, what's the next.

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Speaker 7: Well, I mean I think that there are people waiting

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Speaker 7: in the wings. I think Tim Scott, for example, from

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Speaker 7: South Carolina, is trying to correct a message that builds

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Speaker 7: on this evangelical base, that builds on the sort of

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Speaker 7: conservative voters, particularly in the South, that seem to really

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Speaker 7: love Donald Trump. So I think there are people who

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Speaker 7: can then take the mantle of all So got Chris

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Speaker 7: Nunu of New Hampshire. We've got Brian Camp of Georgia

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Speaker 7: that I'm keeping an eye on for twenty twenty eight.

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Speaker 7: If Trump doesn't, you know, we can't run again, presumably

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Speaker 7: if the constitution holds so if he wins. But twenty

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Speaker 7: twenty eight, You've got some Republicans now that are in line,

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Speaker 7: that are lining up, and they seem frankly more compelling

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Speaker 7: in a lot of ways than the current lineup of

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Speaker 7: challenges Donald.

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Speaker 4: Trump, which raises a question of who really is the

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Speaker 4: number two? If Ron DeSantis is increasingly getting pushed out

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Speaker 4: over the weekend, he made this oblique reference to Trump

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Speaker 4: followers as listless vessels, and it's sort of getting compared

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Speaker 4: to the whole concept of deplorables. Is it looking more

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Speaker 4: and more likely that he is not really the number two?

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Speaker 4: He is not one of the main contenders when we

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Speaker 4: actually had to get closer to the actual presidential election.

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Speaker 7: I think Ron Desantas has the most to gain and

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Speaker 7: the most to lose from Wednesday's debate. You know, Kenny,

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Speaker 7: get out there and you know, project a coherent message

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Speaker 7: for the Republican Party saying I'm the future. You know,

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Speaker 7: Trump's the past on the future. I can win. I

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Speaker 7: know what I'm doing. I'm quite popular in Florida. Can

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Speaker 7: he actually make that argument. If he does it well,

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Speaker 7: then I think he you know, keeps his post as

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Speaker 7: the second in line. But if he doesn't, and someone

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Speaker 7: like Tim Scott emerges an attractive candidate, you might even

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Speaker 7: see Donald Trump offer Tim Scott the vice presidency in

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Speaker 7: the month. I mean, you know, Donald Trump doesn't play

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Speaker 7: by the traditional nominated rules, right So, and that's a

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Speaker 7: tough ticket.

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Speaker 2: That is a very tough ticket, Wendy, this field is

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Speaker 2: already deep, and yet already we're asking who's next, who's

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Speaker 2: going to join him. There was a report over the

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Speaker 2: weekend that maybe mister Murdock had a conversation with a

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Speaker 2: certain Glenn young Kid when he was the prospect of

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Speaker 2: that governor again into this race.

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Speaker 7: I just, you know, Glenn Youngkin is a perfectly reasonable

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Speaker 7: politician who won against you know, a person who had

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Speaker 7: been governor already, who wasn't super popular in Virginia. Kind

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Speaker 7: of a little bit of a fluke. And he's also

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Speaker 7: made parental rights one of his big messaging. And you

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Speaker 7: can see it's starting to back by a little bit

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Speaker 7: on DeSantis because people are focused on the economy. So

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Speaker 7: what is Youngkin done to the economy in Virginia. I

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Speaker 7: just don't see on a charismal level that he can

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Speaker 7: go anywhere close Toto Trump well.

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Speaker 1: To the other side. What should be the to do

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Speaker 1: list for the president and the people surrounding the president.

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Speaker 1: Basically what I see is silence. What should they be doing?

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Speaker 7: I do think that president byen emphasizing the economy and

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Speaker 7: understanding that the election is what fourteen months away, that's

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Speaker 7: a long time. We can all go back to George

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Speaker 7: Herbert Walker. Bush was pretty popular in nineteen ninety one

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Speaker 7: and lost in ninety two for all sorts of reasons.

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Speaker 7: So I think that's one thing the long view, But

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Speaker 7: the second he's got to engage. He's got to engage Trump.

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Speaker 7: He's got to remind people what life is like under

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Speaker 7: Trump and the chaos that ensued. And he's got to

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Speaker 7: appeal to independent voters today now going forward, not just

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Speaker 7: the party base, but independent voters as well, and just

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Speaker 7: hammer home and engage and not ignore. I don't think

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Speaker 7: you win when somebody's out there getting a lot of press,

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Speaker 7: very well known person who has a loyal base, You've

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00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 7: got to go after him, just like the people in

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Speaker 7: the Republican Party have to go after him.

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Speaker 4: Do you think that Kamala Harris has solidified herself enough

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Speaker 4: it's to really gain the traction, perhaps a younger way

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00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 4: that many people said was necessary to give Biden's campaign

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Speaker 4: a little bit more attraction.

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Speaker 7: It's a very complicated situation with Kalmala Harris. African American

447
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,879
Speaker 7: voters are loyal and a huge supermajority of African American

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00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 7: voters vote for the Democrat Party. They also are key

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00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,440
Speaker 7: in places like Georgia and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Michigan

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00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 7: to winning the presidency of the Democrat Party. So I

451
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:28,080
Speaker 7: can't see by making a change per se, unless it

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00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 7: was to another African American politician, like let's say Rafael Warnock.

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00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 7: You know, do you trade the Senate for perhaps you know,

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Speaker 7: a guaranteed victory in Georgia and then find something else

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Speaker 7: for Kamala Harris to do. That's a tough proposition. And

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00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:42,919
Speaker 7: remember the House has to approve another vice president. You know,

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00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,920
Speaker 7: she can't step down because Kevin McCarthy won't approve another

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00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,399
Speaker 7: vice president. He's third in line to the presidency. So

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Speaker 7: it gets very complicated in an age where the typical norms,

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Speaker 7: you know.

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Speaker 2: Doula bla by Wendy. Thank you, good stance at the

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Speaker 2: week our political conference. Continuing going get into that first

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Speaker 2: debate on Wednesday, Wendy Shila there unsty.

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