WEBVTT - Ian Bremmer Talks 'Post-America Hedge'

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>So if I was to do a panel, let's say

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<v Speaker 2>some fancy place like Davos right now, they would say,

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<v Speaker 2>mister Keene, who would you like to have in your panel?

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<v Speaker 2>And I would say Ezra Prisade of Cornell and Ian

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<v Speaker 2>Bremer of Tulane, and Stanford Bremmer and Prosad would be

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<v Speaker 2>lights out. The Doom Loop is Azra Prisad's new book

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<v Speaker 2>with really interesting discussions of stability, and Ian Bremer owns

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<v Speaker 2>the high ground on this with every nation for itself,

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<v Speaker 2>the j curve, and of course us versus them. Doctor

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<v Speaker 2>Bremer joins us from Eurasia a group. I look at

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<v Speaker 2>the Doom Loop from prisad Ian and the heart of

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<v Speaker 2>the matter is we are in some form of stability

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<v Speaker 2>moving to instability. Is that how you see it? There's

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<v Speaker 2>instab out there. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I like his book a lot. He's more of an economist.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm a political scientist, so I'm focusing on the geopolitics specifically,

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<v Speaker 3>and I think it's cyclical. So I see this as

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<v Speaker 3>a bust cycle because the balance of power is no

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<v Speaker 3>longer aligned with the institutions, the architecture, the policies or

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<v Speaker 3>the values, and that's particularly playing out with the Americans,

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<v Speaker 3>the most powerful country, stepping back from their own historic leadership.

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<v Speaker 3>So I mean, the good news is that that's very

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<v Speaker 3>unlikely to get you the so called Throughcinity's trap, a

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<v Speaker 3>World War III. Historically, usually when you have a move

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<v Speaker 3>to instability in geopolitics, it's because the major power is

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<v Speaker 3>in decline and trying to hold on to its old system.

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<v Speaker 3>The rising power wants to create a new one. That's

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<v Speaker 3>not what's happening here. The United States is still the

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<v Speaker 3>most powerful country. It's just unilaterally saying it doesn't want

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<v Speaker 3>to be in charge of collective security or free trade,

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<v Speaker 3>or promotion of democracy or rule of law. So it's

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<v Speaker 3>causing a lot of instability, but it's not causing global conflict.

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<v Speaker 1>In your notes, you suggest that these countries historically allies,

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<v Speaker 1>and maybe if it's posed of the United States, they

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<v Speaker 1>are not decoupling from the US, but they're de risking.

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<v Speaker 1>How are they doing that.

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<v Speaker 3>They're primarily doing it economically, And the reason it's mostly

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<v Speaker 3>economic is because the global economy today is increasingly multipolar,

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<v Speaker 3>while the global security environment is still dominated by the

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<v Speaker 3>United States. So the reality is that even if you

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<v Speaker 3>don't trust or rely on the United States as a

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<v Speaker 3>security ally, you don't have many good options, and it

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<v Speaker 3>will take you a very long time. Even for the

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<v Speaker 3>Europeans who see this as an existential need. Yes they're

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<v Speaker 3>spending a lot of money on Ukraine, but they're buying

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<v Speaker 3>American weapons. Yes, they're stepping up their own security, but

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<v Speaker 3>they know, as Mark Ruta, the Secretary General of NATO

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<v Speaker 3>said in the last few days, how essential the Americans

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<v Speaker 3>still are for the foreseeable future. Where when you think

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<v Speaker 3>of the global economy, there are options. I mean, even Canada,

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<v Speaker 3>which is so incredibly dependent on the United States, has

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<v Speaker 3>the ability to diversify more effectively with the Europeans, with

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<v Speaker 3>the Chinese, with others. And that's particularly true India, for example.

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<v Speaker 3>The United States pushes India hard, despite the relationship that

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<v Speaker 3>Trump and Mody have, and Modi takes his time in

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<v Speaker 3>doing a deal with the Americans and instead steps up

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<v Speaker 3>his relations with the EU and with the Australians and

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<v Speaker 3>stabilizes with China and the rest.

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<v Speaker 2>So that.

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<v Speaker 3>Effort that we are seeing to hedge is most happening

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<v Speaker 3>in diversifying away from US. Trade from US capital, and

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<v Speaker 3>you know, those things, once they happen, they do have

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<v Speaker 3>much more long term implications.

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<v Speaker 1>Does does this America first agenda of this second Trump administration?

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<v Speaker 1>To what degree do you think it will empower China

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<v Speaker 1>empower Russia.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it's empowering Russia at all. I do

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<v Speaker 3>think it is empowering China. Russia's dug its own grave.

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<v Speaker 3>In fact, they've dug hundreds of thousands of them over

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<v Speaker 3>the last four years of the war in Ukraine. They

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<v Speaker 3>are weaker as a consequence. Their economy is weaker, their

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<v Speaker 3>security environment is weaker, their diplomacy is weaker. They're basically becoming,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, a a second rate state that has to

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<v Speaker 3>has to follow the lead of China. And that's not

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<v Speaker 3>where Putin wants to be, clearly where China is actually

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<v Speaker 3>in so any ways, taking advantage of the United States

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<v Speaker 3>being seen as unreliable. In part that is directly reaching

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<v Speaker 3>out to countries to improve their bilateral relations, and in

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<v Speaker 3>part it's stepping up China's role in these old institutions

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<v Speaker 3>that the Americans don't value much anymore. So you will

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<v Speaker 3>have noticed the Americans pulled out of the World Health Organization.

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<v Speaker 3>They convinced Argentina to join them. Nobody else did. China

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<v Speaker 3>immediately stepped up how much money they were giving to

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<v Speaker 3>the WHO to five hundred million dollars. Why would they

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<v Speaker 3>do that because if America's out, they get to be

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<v Speaker 3>number one in influence. When Trump announced the Board of Peace,

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<v Speaker 3>not just in terms of Gaza coordination, but as potentially

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<v Speaker 3>a replacement to many of the of the operating principles

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<v Speaker 3>that the United Nations has, the Chinese immediately said, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't want to join that.

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<v Speaker 2>In the same thing in the time we got left Ian,

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<v Speaker 2>I think the question, I'm getting this all the time,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm not informed like you as simple as I can.

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<v Speaker 2>What do you perceive post Trump? Do we return to

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<v Speaker 2>what Paul and I knew years ago? Do we go

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<v Speaker 2>to some form of a mended new What do you

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<v Speaker 2>perceive in say, twenty twenty eight, two thousand and thirty.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, if Trump is followed by a much more predictable

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<v Speaker 3>and reliable leader in the eyes of allies, that I

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<v Speaker 3>think you will be able to normalize those relations from

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<v Speaker 3>a very different base. In other words, permanent damage will

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<v Speaker 3>have been done, diversification efforts will be in place. The

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<v Speaker 3>Americans won't be leading the world the way they used to,

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<v Speaker 3>but you won't see the continued trajectory towards chaos. If,

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<v Speaker 3>on the other hand, Trump is replaced by a leader

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<v Speaker 3>that is seen as not only more unilateralists, but also

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<v Speaker 3>just as un rictable right and just as willing to

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<v Speaker 3>use American power against allies and adversaries alike, then of

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<v Speaker 3>course that trajectory will continue to deteriorate.

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<v Speaker 2>We don't care. And the only reason you're on today

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<v Speaker 2>is pitchers and catchers with Red Sox down at Fort

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<v Speaker 2>Myers Jet Blue Park, you were behind home played. I

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<v Speaker 2>saw for the playoffs last year. What an improvement on

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<v Speaker 2>the Red Sox, Doctor Bremer. Can they do it again

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<v Speaker 2>and improve further?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they can't do worse than the Patriots did this

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<v Speaker 3>Sunday one of the worst games I've ever seen. And

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<v Speaker 3>but I you know, you got to be hopeful for

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<v Speaker 3>my Red Sox. I've got to be one of the

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<v Speaker 3>only Red Sox out there that's also capable of rooting

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<v Speaker 3>for the Yankees when I see them in New York.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a weird it's a weird position to be in.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a weird's there's a mental health issue the probably

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<v Speaker 2>Adam Bremer, thank you so much. Regards to moose as well.