1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:10,239 Speaker 2: So if I was to do a panel, let's say 3 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 2: some fancy place like Davos right now, they would say, 4 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 2: mister Keene, who would you like to have in your panel? 5 00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:20,200 Speaker 2: And I would say Ezra Prisade of Cornell and Ian 6 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:24,799 Speaker 2: Bremer of Tulane, and Stanford Bremmer and Prosad would be 7 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:30,639 Speaker 2: lights out. The Doom Loop is Azra Prisad's new book 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 2: with really interesting discussions of stability, and Ian Bremer owns 9 00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 2: the high ground on this with every nation for itself, 10 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 2: the j curve, and of course us versus them. Doctor 11 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,959 Speaker 2: Bremer joins us from Eurasia a group. I look at 12 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 2: the Doom Loop from prisad Ian and the heart of 13 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: the matter is we are in some form of stability 14 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: moving to instability. Is that how you see it? There's 15 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 2: instab out there. Yeah. 16 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:08,040 Speaker 3: I like his book a lot. He's more of an economist. 17 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:13,400 Speaker 3: I'm a political scientist, so I'm focusing on the geopolitics specifically, 18 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 3: and I think it's cyclical. So I see this as 19 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 3: a bust cycle because the balance of power is no 20 00:01:23,319 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 3: longer aligned with the institutions, the architecture, the policies or 21 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 3: the values, and that's particularly playing out with the Americans, 22 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 3: the most powerful country, stepping back from their own historic leadership. 23 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 3: So I mean, the good news is that that's very 24 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 3: unlikely to get you the so called Throughcinity's trap, a 25 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,400 Speaker 3: World War III. Historically, usually when you have a move 26 00:01:49,520 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 3: to instability in geopolitics, it's because the major power is 27 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 3: in decline and trying to hold on to its old system. 28 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 3: The rising power wants to create a new one. That's 29 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 3: not what's happening here. The United States is still the 30 00:02:03,840 --> 00:02:08,560 Speaker 3: most powerful country. It's just unilaterally saying it doesn't want 31 00:02:08,600 --> 00:02:12,520 Speaker 3: to be in charge of collective security or free trade, 32 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,919 Speaker 3: or promotion of democracy or rule of law. So it's 33 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:19,799 Speaker 3: causing a lot of instability, but it's not causing global conflict. 34 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: In your notes, you suggest that these countries historically allies, 35 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,079 Speaker 1: and maybe if it's posed of the United States, they 36 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: are not decoupling from the US, but they're de risking. 37 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:33,399 Speaker 1: How are they doing that. 38 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 3: They're primarily doing it economically, And the reason it's mostly 39 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 3: economic is because the global economy today is increasingly multipolar, 40 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 3: while the global security environment is still dominated by the 41 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,320 Speaker 3: United States. So the reality is that even if you 42 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 3: don't trust or rely on the United States as a 43 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 3: security ally, you don't have many good options, and it 44 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 3: will take you a very long time. Even for the 45 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: Europeans who see this as an existential need. Yes they're 46 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:08,200 Speaker 3: spending a lot of money on Ukraine, but they're buying 47 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 3: American weapons. Yes, they're stepping up their own security, but 48 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 3: they know, as Mark Ruta, the Secretary General of NATO 49 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 3: said in the last few days, how essential the Americans 50 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:19,799 Speaker 3: still are for the foreseeable future. Where when you think 51 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 3: of the global economy, there are options. I mean, even Canada, 52 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 3: which is so incredibly dependent on the United States, has 53 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:32,720 Speaker 3: the ability to diversify more effectively with the Europeans, with 54 00:03:32,800 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 3: the Chinese, with others. And that's particularly true India, for example. 55 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 3: The United States pushes India hard, despite the relationship that 56 00:03:42,800 --> 00:03:45,760 Speaker 3: Trump and Mody have, and Modi takes his time in 57 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 3: doing a deal with the Americans and instead steps up 58 00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 3: his relations with the EU and with the Australians and 59 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 3: stabilizes with China and the rest. 60 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: So that. 61 00:03:55,880 --> 00:04:00,760 Speaker 3: Effort that we are seeing to hedge is most happening 62 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:07,119 Speaker 3: in diversifying away from US. Trade from US capital, and 63 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: you know, those things, once they happen, they do have 64 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,560 Speaker 3: much more long term implications. 65 00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 1: Does does this America first agenda of this second Trump administration? 66 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:20,720 Speaker 1: To what degree do you think it will empower China 67 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 1: empower Russia. 68 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,039 Speaker 3: I don't think it's empowering Russia at all. I do 69 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 3: think it is empowering China. Russia's dug its own grave. 70 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:33,640 Speaker 3: In fact, they've dug hundreds of thousands of them over 71 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:37,200 Speaker 3: the last four years of the war in Ukraine. They 72 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 3: are weaker as a consequence. Their economy is weaker, their 73 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:45,359 Speaker 3: security environment is weaker, their diplomacy is weaker. They're basically becoming, 74 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 3: you know, a a second rate state that has to 75 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 3: has to follow the lead of China. And that's not 76 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: where Putin wants to be, clearly where China is actually 77 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:04,000 Speaker 3: in so any ways, taking advantage of the United States 78 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:08,599 Speaker 3: being seen as unreliable. In part that is directly reaching 79 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:13,160 Speaker 3: out to countries to improve their bilateral relations, and in 80 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:17,280 Speaker 3: part it's stepping up China's role in these old institutions 81 00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 3: that the Americans don't value much anymore. So you will 82 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 3: have noticed the Americans pulled out of the World Health Organization. 83 00:05:23,640 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 3: They convinced Argentina to join them. Nobody else did. China 84 00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 3: immediately stepped up how much money they were giving to 85 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 3: the WHO to five hundred million dollars. Why would they 86 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 3: do that because if America's out, they get to be 87 00:05:35,080 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 3: number one in influence. When Trump announced the Board of Peace, 88 00:05:40,040 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: not just in terms of Gaza coordination, but as potentially 89 00:05:45,960 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 3: a replacement to many of the of the operating principles 90 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 3: that the United Nations has, the Chinese immediately said, we 91 00:05:55,600 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 3: don't want to join that. 92 00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 2: In the same thing in the time we got left Ian, 93 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,640 Speaker 2: I think the question, I'm getting this all the time, 94 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 2: and I'm not informed like you as simple as I can. 95 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 2: What do you perceive post Trump? Do we return to 96 00:06:10,360 --> 00:06:12,960 Speaker 2: what Paul and I knew years ago? Do we go 97 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,039 Speaker 2: to some form of a mended new What do you 98 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 2: perceive in say, twenty twenty eight, two thousand and thirty. 99 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:29,880 Speaker 3: Well, if Trump is followed by a much more predictable 100 00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,480 Speaker 3: and reliable leader in the eyes of allies, that I 101 00:06:33,520 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 3: think you will be able to normalize those relations from 102 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 3: a very different base. In other words, permanent damage will 103 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 3: have been done, diversification efforts will be in place. The 104 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:47,719 Speaker 3: Americans won't be leading the world the way they used to, 105 00:06:48,080 --> 00:06:52,159 Speaker 3: but you won't see the continued trajectory towards chaos. If, 106 00:06:52,240 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 3: on the other hand, Trump is replaced by a leader 107 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 3: that is seen as not only more unilateralists, but also 108 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 3: just as un rictable right and just as willing to 109 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 3: use American power against allies and adversaries alike, then of 110 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 3: course that trajectory will continue to deteriorate. 111 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,520 Speaker 2: We don't care. And the only reason you're on today 112 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 2: is pitchers and catchers with Red Sox down at Fort 113 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 2: Myers Jet Blue Park, you were behind home played. I 114 00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: saw for the playoffs last year. What an improvement on 115 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: the Red Sox, Doctor Bremer. Can they do it again 116 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:24,120 Speaker 2: and improve further? 117 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,560 Speaker 3: Well, they can't do worse than the Patriots did this 118 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 3: Sunday one of the worst games I've ever seen. And 119 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,080 Speaker 3: but I you know, you got to be hopeful for 120 00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 3: my Red Sox. I've got to be one of the 121 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 3: only Red Sox out there that's also capable of rooting 122 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 3: for the Yankees when I see them in New York. 123 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 3: It's a weird it's a weird position to be in. 124 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 2: It's a weird's there's a mental health issue the probably 125 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 2: Adam Bremer, thank you so much. Regards to moose as well.