Speaker 1: Check it in Man Now down Man Wednesday morning, but
Speaker 1: two and is the Beating the Book podcast for week
Speaker 1: twelve in the National Football League. Day earlier this week
Speaker 1: because of Thanksgiving. So we want to get it in,
Speaker 1: as they say, and do only they say get it
Speaker 1: in for that context. You different context, but you know
Speaker 1: what I mean with me Skill Alexander by the way,
Speaker 1: with me, Jeff Pearls in studio, Jeff Parlay, how you
Speaker 1: doing man? It's interesting interesting few days, I would say,
Speaker 1: the holidays. The World Cup is underway. Mike Michael White
Speaker 1: is starting for the New York Jets on Sunday. Now,
Speaker 1: Mike go White. One of the best Chris Andrew stories ever.
Speaker 1: But it's a it's good to be here, as always,
Speaker 1: good to have you. Jeff is a hostedt Visa of course,
Speaker 1: and Todd Wishnett from his mom's cork addict in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: who was actively bet in college basketball while this happens,
Speaker 1: we're betting the World Cup as well. How you don't
Speaker 1: Toddy you good? Hey, Hey, hey, I'm betting the American
Speaker 1: Georgetown Gilly Memorial. The ornament it's uh, it's based on
Speaker 1: Gilly ICE's Washington, d C. Boyhood home. So they are
Speaker 1: they bringing him out at halftime, so we might have
Speaker 1: to lose him for bringing me out at halftime. It's
Speaker 1: the battle at Northwest d C. And ladies and gentlemen,
Speaker 1: big treat this week is what has become an annual
Speaker 1: appearance on this show. This show, Um, how can I
Speaker 1: how can I say it? Properly? Upon whose shoulders it
Speaker 1: has been built? Ladies and gentlemen. You know him as Ace,
Speaker 1: you know him as VR, you know as Vegas Runner.
Speaker 1: It's Ace Vegas Runner. How you do it? Man? Never better? Brother?
Speaker 1: And thank you. It is to thank you for using
Speaker 1: my proper pronouns before we start exciting. That's really excited. Great,
Speaker 1: perfect time to have me on with Thanksgiving weekend because
Speaker 1: we have a couple of days. People are all from work.
Speaker 1: They're looking at drop some bombs. We got nothing but
Speaker 1: prime time, so perfect timing. Man, I'm excited and I've
Speaker 1: already unloaded, so we got some good, good gold to
Speaker 1: share with the I missed that about you. I like
Speaker 1: everything on this card. Thank you for using my proper pronouns.
Speaker 1: That's so awesome. By the way, I just we we
Speaker 1: try not to get political on this show. But you know,
Speaker 1: you know how your phone gets pushed articles. I was
Speaker 1: pushed an article about It's about some actress and some actor.
Speaker 1: I don't know why I got pushed the article. I
Speaker 1: don't know why I read it, but I started reading it.
Speaker 1: And I consider myself a fairly intelligent human being. Um,
Speaker 1: I could be wrong about that, but I started reading
Speaker 1: it and I couldn't understand what I was reading, and
Speaker 1: so I had to double back and read it again.
Speaker 1: Why Because the guy that they were referring to in
Speaker 1: the article, they didn't refer to him as he and him.
Speaker 1: They referred to him as they. So it required two
Speaker 1: readings for me to understand what I was reading. No,
Speaker 1: I ask you, are we gonna really do this? These
Speaker 1: are like a major publication, We're really going to do
Speaker 1: that with the pronounced in publication. I think if you're
Speaker 1: over three hundred pounds, you should be allowed to be there,
Speaker 1: because that's you're calling me over three hundred pounds what
Speaker 1: I used to be over three hundred pounds. So I
Speaker 1: feel like I want to continue to have the right
Speaker 1: to call myself they because you were more than one person. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and so the fact that you know a lot of
Speaker 1: times you say, oh, well we have this team in
Speaker 1: the first half, so you know you want to be
Speaker 1: a week as opposed to h an. I not not
Speaker 1: really what I think they were going for in the
Speaker 1: R hole, but I understand what I was just I
Speaker 1: was just joking. But over three hundred. By the way,
Speaker 1: just so you know, in the over three hundred division,
Speaker 1: I was in the top ten worldwide in tennis over
Speaker 1: three hundred, and I've lost that designation now that thin
Speaker 1: as I've told as you've told us before, what is
Speaker 1: your current weight to wish? What is your current right
Speaker 1: around two oh three two o four? All right? Good
Speaker 1: for you, good for him? Is right? All right, let's
Speaker 1: do this Thanksgiving three days, three games on Thanksgiving, of course,
Speaker 1: leading into a full slate of week twelve games. We start, though,
Speaker 1: with a couple of things we are that we sort
Speaker 1: of added to the show since you've been here with us,
Speaker 1: which is and I think I already know the answer
Speaker 1: to this, the dumbbell of the week. Itimous. I'd like
Speaker 1: to believe you you want you want to handle it time,
Speaker 1: because I think this this hacket has got to go.
Speaker 1: I've had enough for from the you can't get to
Speaker 1: play in on time. Okay, your own tea, your own
Speaker 1: fans were counting down the play clock earlier in the season,
Speaker 1: and now, okay, first of all, before we get into
Speaker 1: the one that's just gonna drive me crazy, there was
Speaker 1: a point, and I believe in the first half of
Speaker 1: it was holding. It was either first in twenty or
Speaker 1: second and seventeen. He took first in twenty. That's not
Speaker 1: a good option, folks, I forgot about seventeen is better
Speaker 1: than first in twenty. What are you doing? That is
Speaker 1: not that hard to figure out. You should know that
Speaker 1: by watching any football game that first in twenty is
Speaker 1: not as good as second and seventh. Okay, that's whatever.
Speaker 1: Even the announcer, even the ouncer figured that out at
Speaker 1: the time, which they're usually not present to do so,
Speaker 1: but he did. I'll let that go now. The second
Speaker 1: thing is Melvin Gordon pretty much fumbles every time he
Speaker 1: touches the ball. Is certainly around large men on the
Speaker 1: interior of an offensive or defensive line. Maybe let's not
Speaker 1: give him the ball every time and inside the five
Speaker 1: yard lights so he can give you a heart attack.
Speaker 1: And somehow his own team gets hold on hold on,
Speaker 1: hold on, let's just give context. You are referring to
Speaker 1: the end of the first half, Denver was up ten
Speaker 1: to seven. They actually had its second and goal at
Speaker 1: the excuse me, was second and two at the four
Speaker 1: second and I believe it was second and two at
Speaker 1: the four. No, second and goal at the four something
Speaker 1: like that. Anyway, they were in a very favorable position
Speaker 1: and on the third down play Melvin Gordon fubble, Denver
Speaker 1: was lucky enough to recover it, and then they got
Speaker 1: their field goal blocks. So, yes, that was that unbelievable.
Speaker 1: And by the way, he then he then he then
Speaker 1: was cut, we should finish. He then was cut right after,
Speaker 1: you know, the next day. So that's part of the
Speaker 1: story too. Okay, whatever, It's just another time they were
Speaker 1: inside the five yard line and they don't score, which
Speaker 1: is maybe put you know, that's only happened eight hundred
Speaker 1: times this year. Now. The worst is at the end
Speaker 1: of the game. It's third down with like a minute
Speaker 1: fifty five. We've seen this a thousand times, no time
Speaker 1: outs left for the Raiders. The minutes exactly, run the ball,
Speaker 1: take the sack, do whatever you have to do, and
Speaker 1: the Raiders get the ball. Back with one fifteen no
Speaker 1: time outs, very deep in their own end, and they've
Speaker 1: got to get a field go to tight. Now, I'm
Speaker 1: not saying that they're not going to get a field goal.
Speaker 1: Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but you certainly want
Speaker 1: to make sure you get rid of the forty five seconds,
Speaker 1: and of course they Russell Wilson rolls out throws the
Speaker 1: incomplete passed. Now the Raiders have all kinds of time,
Speaker 1: and of course you know, they go down and they
Speaker 1: almost got the touchdown to win the game right there.
Speaker 1: Of course they end up losing the game. But anyways,
Speaker 1: the point is Mr Nathaniel Hackett must be a very
Speaker 1: nice guy. I don't know. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't.
Speaker 1: The bottom line is he's not ready to be a
Speaker 1: head coach in the national football You forgot one, Todd,
Speaker 1: you forgot another one. So on that on that Raiders
Speaker 1: dry after after Russell Wilson threw the incomplete pass. So
Speaker 1: the Raiders quickly matriculate downfield like three passes, right, they
Speaker 1: end up first in goal at the seven and and
Speaker 1: so so i I'm taking notes right for guessing lines,
Speaker 1: I'm taking notes. So I turned my head away and
Speaker 1: I'm assuming, God forbid, I assume with Hackett. I'm assuming
Speaker 1: that the Raiders spiked the ball to to to set
Speaker 1: up a second in goal. No, the Broncos called the
Speaker 1: fucking time out. Time to remember, the Raiders didn't have
Speaker 1: any time outs, which means there was going to be
Speaker 1: at least another five ten ten second runof Plus they're
Speaker 1: gonna lose it down because they're gonna have to spec
Speaker 1: the ball just like you said. So that's increditable, incredible management.
Speaker 1: He's got to go. You're right, he's got to go.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I'm sure that maybe he's a good coach,
Speaker 1: maybe he's a smart guy. I don't know. But he's
Speaker 1: not ready yet. He's he's so bad though, And this
Speaker 1: will getting to the betting that legitimately, when you're handicapping
Speaker 1: a Broncos game, you have to for a moment consider
Speaker 1: his impact. You really do. You're like, this guy might
Speaker 1: be worth negative two points. You really will When when
Speaker 1: when I took him, I said I don't want to
Speaker 1: take him. I don't want to take him. I don't
Speaker 1: want to take him. Fifty times I said I don't
Speaker 1: want to take and then of course I took him
Speaker 1: to and of course you know I deserved everything I get,
Speaker 1: So there you go. You know, no, not to bet
Speaker 1: on Nathaniel Hackett. It's really not that hard, folks, It's
Speaker 1: really not that hard. He's been swept by Josh McDaniels.
Speaker 1: The Raiders have sixty six PERCENTATOR wins this year against
Speaker 1: the Broncos. It's all you need to know. Don't short
Speaker 1: change it at sixty six points. Excuse me that I
Speaker 1: forgot the obvious points, the the decimal they're we're gonna get.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get sixty six fast off the math people again. Sorry, yes,
Speaker 1: you keep doing that, all right? And then, um, what
Speaker 1: do we do after that? Oh? Yeah, and just take
Speaker 1: it quick. I just have I have a quick end
Speaker 1: game that I want to talk about. We talked about
Speaker 1: this on text a little bit. The the Chiefs Charger game. Uh,
Speaker 1: there was ten thirty four to go in the second quarter.
Speaker 1: The Chargers are down third team ten, they're getting the ball.
Speaker 1: They're also getting the ball to start the second half
Speaker 1: as well. At that moment, I got plus four and
Speaker 1: a half on the Chargers. I loved it because of
Speaker 1: the fact I saw the Chargers are moving the ball.
Speaker 1: It's hard in the NFL to beat a team by
Speaker 1: four and a half if the other team can move
Speaker 1: the ball. It certainly looked like the Charges were gonna
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball. Plus I had all
Speaker 1: the favorability of them getting the ball right then also
Speaker 1: getting the ball to start the second half. I just
Speaker 1: thought four and a half was too much. Took the
Speaker 1: four and a half, ended up getting home. But I
Speaker 1: think a bigger issue, and it was something you talked
Speaker 1: about that you had Tennessee on Saturday again, I mean
Speaker 1: had South Carolina against Tennessee. Because remember, folks, the algorithms
Speaker 1: are all based on the pregame number. So in the
Speaker 1: South Carolina Tennessee game, or even in this football game
Speaker 1: that I was just talking about with the Chiefs, it
Speaker 1: was plus twenty two before the game South Carolina. If
Speaker 1: South Carolina can move the ball at will, which they could,
Speaker 1: you're not covering twenty two, you're not covering eleven, you're
Speaker 1: not covering twelve. You may not even win the game.
Speaker 1: They didn't win the game. And and plus ten plus
Speaker 1: eleven plus five plus seven, all those pluses were available,
Speaker 1: and you were you were pounding him. So you know,
Speaker 1: that's one thing you need to know about in game.
Speaker 1: I did a whole rant on that yesterday on the
Speaker 1: Numbers Game, which is exactly what you said. At one
Speaker 1: to seven, I go in there and I'm like, well,
Speaker 1: let me suspend my thought for a second about the
Speaker 1: pre flop number, the twenty two and a half. What
Speaker 1: ought South Carolina be right? What should they be right now?
Speaker 1: And you go in and because as you said, it's formula,
Speaker 1: it's derivative the algorithms derivative of the pre flop. They
Speaker 1: were plus five and a half, and they were still
Speaker 1: plus two thirteen or plus two twenty on the money line.
Speaker 1: I grabbed the money line when they're up twenty one
Speaker 1: to seven. I grabbed it again when Tennessee had a
Speaker 1: had a fourth and goal down seven. Tennessee ended up
Speaker 1: converting that, by the way. But then when South Carolina
Speaker 1: went back up to fourteen, bet him again at north
Speaker 1: of two dollars. Then it was twenty eight to seventeen,
Speaker 1: excuse me, fourteen, Bet them at plus one sixty two.
Speaker 1: Then when it was seventeen, bet him on the on
Speaker 1: the on the spread at plus three and a half.
Speaker 1: Any to your point, those are the opportunities in betting
Speaker 1: because so because of the nature of a podcast, we
Speaker 1: have to talk about everything pre flop. But the reason
Speaker 1: we bring up in game is because when you look
Speaker 1: at your betting pie at the end, what you actually
Speaker 1: win on pre flop is just a portion of that pie.
Speaker 1: You've got to be present for those in game opportunities.
Speaker 1: There was never a better example than that South Carolina
Speaker 1: Tennessee game. And the more you can recognize that and
Speaker 1: the more you can be aggressive and pounds. Now, by
Speaker 1: the way, it might not have worked right got closed dogs.
Speaker 1: Dogs fade sometimes, but sometimes they the more you if
Speaker 1: I could just finish, the more you put yourself in
Speaker 1: those positions, right, the better off you're gonna be. Right.
Speaker 1: That's especially especially if you get to keep some points
Speaker 1: still for them to fade late, you know what I mean,
Speaker 1: because sometimes these dogs do fade. But you could pretty
Speaker 1: much tell in that game this is gonna be a
Speaker 1: close game because South Carolina is not getting stopped the
Speaker 1: whole time. So anyways, it's just something interesting. And I
Speaker 1: thought that the Chargers, uh you know, Chargers Chiefs game
Speaker 1: was a perfect example of that, that the Chiefs weren't
Speaker 1: going to dominate that game if they're not going to
Speaker 1: stop the charges every time. So I started out this
Speaker 1: NFL season on fire. Through nine weeks on this show,
Speaker 1: I was twenty and seven, and I have just screeched
Speaker 1: to a halt. I lost to fourteen point leads two
Speaker 1: weeks ago, and then this past week one, you didn't
Speaker 1: deserve one loss. One loss you in, Jeffrey, I have
Speaker 1: to give you both, and then this is not deserve
Speaker 1: And then and then this week we lost on the
Speaker 1: Jets and the Broncos, or I did on both of
Speaker 1: those teams. So I just feel like the PLCO chip
Speaker 1: has just aggressively gone against me. Another oh and three
Speaker 1: for me? What else for everybody? Gilly moves to twenty
Speaker 1: and thirteen with his oh and three didn't deserve much
Speaker 1: better in the Patriots game. Jeffrey moves to nineteen and fourteen,
Speaker 1: just a game back, and I am eight. I got
Speaker 1: it right, Jeffrey. I wanted two last week at one
Speaker 1: and two, and I am at eighteen and fifteen, just
Speaker 1: two games back. Um, the guests seat had a terrible
Speaker 1: week as well, seventeen and sixteen. Now for the guest
Speaker 1: so en eighteen seventeen, that's where we are now, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: And the teasers, you guys each have four after the
Speaker 1: Vikings decided not to show up in Dallas. Four wins,
Speaker 1: seven losses. I'm to eight and one on the teaser
Speaker 1: and the guest seat is still seven and four and
Speaker 1: the teasers, the guest chair on the teaser has been awesome.
Speaker 1: All right, Ace, We we apologize for the preamble there,
Speaker 1: but that's uh, that's how we start each show. Now,
Speaker 1: so let's get just be in Canada plus one as
Speaker 1: we speak. Wait, wait, say again again. We're just setting
Speaker 1: in Canada in the World Cup at plus one as
Speaker 1: we speak. But it's that time of day where things
Speaker 1: are coming in so early. So no, I'm listening to
Speaker 1: everything you're saying, but also to move a little bit
Speaker 1: as we're getting through. I have the draw in that
Speaker 1: game after this, i got plus one plus one minus
Speaker 1: one oh five. I'm actually on the same thing aces
Speaker 1: even though this podcast will be out of right as
Speaker 1: the game starting, I was gonna say, all right, um, okay,
Speaker 1: so let's usually we say hey, any thoughts on the
Speaker 1: Thursday night game, because we do this Thursday morning. Let's
Speaker 1: just sort of throw in the three Thanksgiving games and
Speaker 1: really one of them. Yeah, so maybe we should just
Speaker 1: get into the best bets and see if any of
Speaker 1: the Thanksgiving games qualify. ACE, we start with you. You
Speaker 1: know the format better than anybody. What's your first place there? Hey, listen.
Speaker 1: I bet all three games on Thursday, I really did,
Speaker 1: and two of them I really liked the sides. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you. First off, I bet the Buffalo bills immediately
Speaker 1: at minus nine. I bet him again at minus nine
Speaker 1: and a half. Um. I know a lot of betters
Speaker 1: are looking to use them in a teaser. I if
Speaker 1: it's not a long teaser, I just don't do it.
Speaker 1: As badly as I want to tease them down. Maybe
Speaker 1: you six and a half points or seven points, I
Speaker 1: just don't do it. Um. I try to keep things
Speaker 1: simple and stick to certain rules that that at least
Speaker 1: I know historically had been profitable. Unless there's some data
Speaker 1: resent with a big enough sample size to change my mind,
Speaker 1: I just don't do it. I I try to keep
Speaker 1: it simple. Um. So for me, I wanted to use
Speaker 1: Buffalo obviously and a teaser. Wanted to use Dallas in
Speaker 1: a teaser, but the smart books that move them up,
Speaker 1: they just don't qualify for me. For other betters that
Speaker 1: are a little more out on the risk curve. I
Speaker 1: think it's a it's an obvious move to use Buffalo. Listen,
Speaker 1: they're a number one power rated team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: I maybe what some of you guys made disagree, but
Speaker 1: I think their favor over anyone over a neutral field.
Speaker 1: I don't think they win the Super Bowl. In fact,
Speaker 1: I bet a future on Kansas City and the future
Speaker 1: on the Dallas Cowboys about a week and a half
Speaker 1: back because in football, again, it's not a subven game
Speaker 1: by game series where a higher probability of the cream
Speaker 1: rising to the cup the top and in one game
Speaker 1: sample size, and there's a lot of randomness in Bob.
Speaker 1: So again, Buffalo maybe the best team power rating wise,
Speaker 1: but I don't think they'll be able to get it done.
Speaker 1: They just have shown that even with all that coality
Speaker 1: on paper, they just lose games they shouldn't. You shouldn't
Speaker 1: have lost against Minnesota, you shouldn't have lost at the Jets,
Speaker 1: you shouldn't have lost that Miami. Like, if you're a
Speaker 1: dominant team, you win those games. You don't lose close
Speaker 1: games to bad teams. And that's why you're still getting
Speaker 1: some value on anotherwise team that would be so um
Speaker 1: out of the value. Like for value betters, you would't
Speaker 1: even consider them um because they're going to be bet
Speaker 1: on weekend and week out. There's the premium attached. Obviously,
Speaker 1: it's something everyone talks about, UM. And that's why I
Speaker 1: do think you get value still on the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 1: And also again the team with the highest point best
Speaker 1: point differential in the NFL also reflects that high power rating. UM.
Speaker 1: I just don't think you fade them here against the
Speaker 1: Detroit team where it's the perfect storm. They've outperformed the
Speaker 1: betting market of late, and why shouldn't they. They went
Speaker 1: over a stretch of five or six weeks where they
Speaker 1: underperformed it so badly. I mean they underperformed by twenty
Speaker 1: four points against New England, eleven points against Dallas, six
Speaker 1: points against Seattle. So in those three weeks they underperformed
Speaker 1: the betting market by forty three points. Of course, it's
Speaker 1: going to come back the other way towards the mean,
Speaker 1: and that's why they covered three straight games. But as
Speaker 1: you can see, two of those were coin flips. It's Thanksgiving.
Speaker 1: Detroit will gets some loved I think it's the wrong side.
Speaker 1: Bet Buffalo. They win this one easily, double digits, turns
Speaker 1: into a blowout in the second half. Alright, Ace goes
Speaker 1: with the Buffalo Billiards. What what are you giving him?
Speaker 1: Nine and a half, nine and a half, nine and
Speaker 1: a Thanksgiving early Thanksgiving warning. The Bills nine and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites on the road against the Lions, who
Speaker 1: have the longest winning streak in the NFC currently at
Speaker 1: three games to Detroit. Jeez, what do you got? I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go under forty five and a half. Is that
Speaker 1: what you have in the Dallas game? Let me check
Speaker 1: how he's back on the Dallas unders again. I got
Speaker 1: forty five and a half for the thought, I got
Speaker 1: forty five and a half. Yeah, okay, give me under
Speaker 1: forty five and a half in the Dallas Giants game.
Speaker 1: You know, as I've said all season, I think the
Speaker 1: most dominant portion of any football team this year is
Speaker 1: the Dallas front four and pass rush. It's been unbelievable.
Speaker 1: I was worried that they were going to get to Cousins,
Speaker 1: which is why I didn't like the Vikings last week
Speaker 1: because of Cousins statuesque ability and you know, that that
Speaker 1: is exactly what happened to Dallas Cowboys. Pass rush might
Speaker 1: wreak havoc on Mr Daniel Jones as well. I don't
Speaker 1: see the Giants being a huge offensive team, and this
Speaker 1: is the kind of team that Dallas just kind of,
Speaker 1: you know, just eats up and spits out. It is
Speaker 1: a divisional game, so I'm hoping on the Giants being
Speaker 1: able to keep the score down. Dallas just had a
Speaker 1: big scoring game, you know, winning whatever what was the
Speaker 1: final thirty seven three, forty three, whatever the final store was,
Speaker 1: So I'm hoping that they can. You know, typically you
Speaker 1: don't see teams, you know, scoring thirty seven forty points
Speaker 1: two weeks in a row. So I'm thinking Dallas might
Speaker 1: slow down a bit here on offense, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be great on defense. I think that's the one,
Speaker 1: the one side of the ball you can really count
Speaker 1: on with the Cowboys. So you know, I think the
Speaker 1: Giant's gonna get more than fourteen points here. I don't
Speaker 1: see it. Thirty four teen still gets you under give
Speaker 1: me under forty five and a half with the Dallas
Speaker 1: cow Girls. Jeffrey Parlay, This card is brutal this week
Speaker 1: you know my things. I'm like a this this of
Speaker 1: all the weeks to have a so on I never
Speaker 1: like a lot guessing lines. I was like, I like, wait,
Speaker 1: so I'm the complete opposite this week because everything with Jeff,
Speaker 1: everything came within a point of what I what I
Speaker 1: would have made it this week for the most part,
Speaker 1: and the biggest differential that I had was and I'm
Speaker 1: I'm sure I won't regret this. I'm taking four and
Speaker 1: a half with the Atlanta Falcons against you. It's four
Speaker 1: I think, by the way, isn't it I see four
Speaker 1: and a half's all over? Yeah? Four and a half? Now, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I got hit this morning. Yeah hit, they got hit
Speaker 1: this morning. I'm I'm looking at my screen. It's fours everywhere.
Speaker 1: By the way, this is the reason that I'm being
Speaker 1: adamant about the spread is because I'm OPO you here.
Speaker 1: What do you what do you I have? I have
Speaker 1: a lot of four, I have five four and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So do you want to how about this? Do you
Speaker 1: want to how about this compromise? Do you want to
Speaker 1: take forward Washington? You give me four and a half
Speaker 1: of Atlanta? Is that allowed? Can we allow that? It's
Speaker 1: really it's really not the rules. But hold on, it's
Speaker 1: pretty evenly space Like I'm seeing just as many fours
Speaker 1: as four and a half on my screen. Article three
Speaker 1: twelve dollar shut the hell up, time States shut off.
Speaker 1: A game cannot have two different lines for two different hosts.
Speaker 1: But if you guys want to do it, I'm okay, Well,
Speaker 1: it's a hollid, it's Thanksgiving. Why the hell? No? All right?
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's legit. I think it's legit
Speaker 1: because it is pretty well split. Look, I know, I
Speaker 1: I know the Commanders have been winning. I know with
Speaker 1: Heideki have been winning games. They have players, Chase Young's
Speaker 1: coming back this week. But this really feels everyone was
Speaker 1: going after the Giants for smoking mirrors earlier in the year,
Speaker 1: and seems like seems like that was correct for going
Speaker 1: after that. It's the smoking mirrors with Washington, They're still
Speaker 1: not really moving the ball. Last week. Davis Mills wasn't
Speaker 1: the preseason Hall of Famer that I called him. He
Speaker 1: was shipped in that game against the kid Commanders and
Speaker 1: that game was over immediately. So look, not that I
Speaker 1: like Atlanta. I think the Falcons have done as well
Speaker 1: as they could with the roster they have. This is
Speaker 1: a field goal game to me. So that's why I'm
Speaker 1: taking the four and a half. With the Falcons on
Speaker 1: the road. I'm sure I will regret it early, but
Speaker 1: what happens, I'm sneaking. We'll start with Washington. I'm I'm
Speaker 1: laying the four with Washington widely available. Atlanta really benefited
Speaker 1: from the court Daryl Patterson kickoff return for a touchdown
Speaker 1: last week against the Bears. They were minus two in
Speaker 1: turnovers in that first half and somehow we're tied, and
Speaker 1: somehow was because largely of that Patterson kick off return
Speaker 1: for a touchdown. They were outgained by the Bears to
Speaker 1: eight eight to two eighty. They were out time of
Speaker 1: possession thirty five ten to twenty four fifty. They were
Speaker 1: only two of nine on third downs. Washington, meanwhile, crush
Speaker 1: the Texans. I don't know how much of that is
Speaker 1: the Texans, how much of that is Washington. I'll concede that,
Speaker 1: but they destroyed him and Taylor Hanekey now as the
Speaker 1: Washington starter, and he is the permanent starter now. Per
Speaker 1: Ron Rivera four and one versus Carson Wentz to and four.
Speaker 1: So I am taking Washington I'm laying the four. I
Speaker 1: actually think this team is headed to the playoffs, and
Speaker 1: I think they're going to surpass the Giants. Their schedule
Speaker 1: lends itself to that. I think Washington is a sneaky
Speaker 1: team to sneak in to the playoffs, which brings me,
Speaker 1: because we're snaking here to my number two pick, which
Speaker 1: is the Dallas Cowboys. Much like Aces laying the wood
Speaker 1: with the Bills, I'm laying the wood with the Cowboys
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving nine and a half, nine and a half everywhere,
Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell. Now we all know that that the Giants
Speaker 1: have been smoking mirrors this year. Bill Barnwell actually quantified
Speaker 1: it in an article that he wrote for ESPN dot com.
Speaker 1: Much of it has to do with and we'll just
Speaker 1: go through a few things. John's are five and one
Speaker 1: in games decided by seven points are fewer. The biggest
Speaker 1: one has come by eight points. They've been outscored. This
Speaker 1: is heading into last week. They were outscored one thirty
Speaker 1: one the first three quarters, but then they were magically
Speaker 1: plus twenty two in the fourth quarter of the game
Speaker 1: of games, which ranks fifth in the league. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: you can't really plan on that their defense actually ranked
Speaker 1: twenty six and ep A per play outside the red zone,
Speaker 1: but somehow in the red zone inside the twenty they've
Speaker 1: allowed teams to you know, they' they've allowed teams to
Speaker 1: make it to the red zone the third highest rate
Speaker 1: on a per game basis, but they're only allowing those
Speaker 1: offenses to convert thirty eight point two percent of the
Speaker 1: time heading into last week of mark, topped only by
Speaker 1: the Broncos. So really, just by the way first and
Speaker 1: second down, they're the league's fourth worst defense by e
Speaker 1: PA por play. Then magically on third and fourth down
Speaker 1: they morph into the third best defense, you know, despite
Speaker 1: the fact that opposing offenses have the fifth fewest yards
Speaker 1: to go to pick up third downs. Against the Giants,
Speaker 1: they've been third best defensive avoiding conversions. So anyway you
Speaker 1: slice it, they've just magically come up big. And that
Speaker 1: is the bottom line of that is is unsustainable. All
Speaker 1: of that's unsustainable. I think about our our old pet
Speaker 1: megapod co host Marco Ace, who always used to say
Speaker 1: a team is not as good as they were last
Speaker 1: week or as bad as they were. The Cowboys certainly qualified, right,
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be every team forty two three. Let
Speaker 1: alone a team the caliber of the Minnesota Vikings. But
Speaker 1: that defense is epic and I think they covered the
Speaker 1: nine and a half on Thanksgiving Day. Those are my
Speaker 1: first two, Jeffrey. Just so you know, American is only
Speaker 1: down four thirty six. Let's American. I don't even have
Speaker 1: a response to that. Spain has just scored their fifth
Speaker 1: goal to make it five nil in the seventy seventy
Speaker 1: fifth minute. Let me just explain why I'm bringing this up.
Speaker 1: Our buddy, Drew Dinsi, who has been a Megapod guest,
Speaker 1: is in a side pool of a Calcutta where Costa Rica.
Speaker 1: Where what he has is it's a side pool of
Speaker 1: you have a team, you pick a team and in
Speaker 1: any one game we're talking about a one game opponent,
Speaker 1: the most goals scored against that team is the object.
Speaker 1: So he has Iran. So Iran had six goals scored
Speaker 1: against them, and so he is sweating this big time
Speaker 1: right now that Espana has five goals. Yeah, that's tough
Speaker 1: for him. He already tweeted team total Spain right now.
Speaker 1: He already tweeted me r I p me. I don't
Speaker 1: blame him. I'm thinking Jacksonville plus two four is my
Speaker 1: second pick against Baltimore. You know, the Ravens are weird
Speaker 1: because they've been up double digits in every single game.
Speaker 1: They have an elite quarterback, and yet every time I
Speaker 1: watch him, I come away saying this is a team
Speaker 1: that's gonna win a division probably going away. Last week
Speaker 1: was another example of that, where Carolina was legitimately dreadful
Speaker 1: on offense. By the way, Sam Donald starting instead of
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield this week the right move for Carolina, and
Speaker 1: like you said, the lie didn't move at all. Granted,
Speaker 1: they're playing Denver. Hackett could do Hackett things, but you
Speaker 1: know what, Denver is a too and a half point
Speaker 1: favorite makes no sense either. Though it totals also thirty six,
Speaker 1: so we're in the Iowa range as well. But if
Speaker 1: with Jacksonville, though, look, the analytics community loves Jacksonville. That
Speaker 1: been in the top ten most of the year. I
Speaker 1: think that's mostly skewed because of what we saw week two,
Speaker 1: where they decimated Indian and followed it up by destroying
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert in the Chargers when Herbert was clearly not
Speaker 1: ready to play yet. But coming off of by Lawrence
Speaker 1: has gotten a little bit better as the year's got along.
Speaker 1: And this is more just the fate of Baltimore. I
Speaker 1: don't I don't know what it is, and it could
Speaker 1: torpedo me yet again, but they just don't look like
Speaker 1: the team that everyone claims they are. And they look
Speaker 1: like a solid football team, but not quite. Hey, this
Speaker 1: team could represent the a f C in the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: I don't see it. So I'll take four with Jacksonville
Speaker 1: at home against Baltio. I hear what you're saying about
Speaker 1: Baltimore too, and it makes you know. What's amazing about
Speaker 1: that is I still have the power ranked is like
Speaker 1: the sixth or seventh best team seven, which tells you
Speaker 1: how bad this league is that they're six or seventh. Um.
Speaker 1: By the way, about Jacksonville. Jacksonville is three and seven
Speaker 1: and they have a plus eleven point differential. Contrast that
Speaker 1: with Minnesota, who is eight and two and they have
Speaker 1: a minus two point differential. God number two, I'm in
Speaker 1: that same football game with the Jags and the Baltimore's.
Speaker 1: I want to go over forty three and a half.
Speaker 1: I believe that's the numbers that the number you guys
Speaker 1: have for it. It's evenly split with forty three and
Speaker 1: a half for me. Okay, so I can take the
Speaker 1: forty three and a half, then officially over forty three
Speaker 1: and a half. You tell me Gilly three and a
Speaker 1: half almost every Yeah, so there you go, you're good. Okay,
Speaker 1: So I have Baltimore over forty three and a half
Speaker 1: with the Jags. Uh. To me, the Jags have been
Speaker 1: an over team all year. Uh. They have three in
Speaker 1: a row unders, one against Denver. Throw that out. Denver
Speaker 1: goes under against everyone. And if you watched that game,
Speaker 1: that was that London game and should have gone way
Speaker 1: over and somehow didn't. The Vegas game twenty and it
Speaker 1: went under forty eight, which is a big number. And
Speaker 1: then the Kansas City game. Those are the last three.
Speaker 1: But you know, prior to that they were playing they
Speaker 1: played the colt to thirty four seventeen game. Uh. They
Speaker 1: played the Eagles one earlier in the year. I just
Speaker 1: feel like Baltimore, after that terrible performance offensively against Carolina,
Speaker 1: is going to figure things out. They usually get up
Speaker 1: in the twenties. They got you know, on the road,
Speaker 1: they got twenty seven in New Orleans, they got twenty
Speaker 1: seven at Tampa Bay uh, So, I don't see why
Speaker 1: they should be able to get, you know, up into
Speaker 1: the twenties against Jacksonville. And I do like Jacksonville at
Speaker 1: home with their offense to you know, to give me
Speaker 1: some points to I just feel like it feels too
Speaker 1: low for a Jags game. Over forty three and a
Speaker 1: half I'll take. Also, I just feel like the Ravens
Speaker 1: have been in you know, they weren't great early in
Speaker 1: the year offensively and I mean defensively. Remember the game
Speaker 1: against Miami where they gave up a million um. They
Speaker 1: blew that Buffalo game when they were ahead by a
Speaker 1: zillion in the second half. I just feel like they're
Speaker 1: They're a team that is not great on defense. And
Speaker 1: just because they held the Saints in Carolina at a
Speaker 1: thirteen and three doesn't mean anything to me. So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go over forty three and a half in Baltimore, Jags.
Speaker 1: All right, Ace, you get your second and third here
Speaker 1: we snake. By the way, why you were in the
Speaker 1: Cowboys had Is there a reason for that? Just a
Speaker 1: little future, a little free future to the viewers out there,
Speaker 1: they may want to jump the Cowboys, little value their
Speaker 1: long term just giving it out there somehow me we're
Speaker 1: just the opposite on the totals. Either I'm gonna have
Speaker 1: a big day or my man's gonna have a big day.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go back to Thanksgiving and for my
Speaker 1: second bed. And I absolutely love the Patriots at two
Speaker 1: and a half. It's a money line play. That's why
Speaker 1: I'm not concerned that it's off that key three, because
Speaker 1: I was simply looking to bet them on the money
Speaker 1: line and also tie them up into teasers. They make
Speaker 1: a beautiful teaser up the plus eight and a half,
Speaker 1: tie them up with some things on Sunday. I think
Speaker 1: it's a great spot because it's a defense that's going
Speaker 1: to keep the game close at the very least. I mean,
Speaker 1: we know the mean absolute error and nfls ten plus points,
Speaker 1: so you don't want to tease a lot um, But
Speaker 1: there are some spots where I do think it does
Speaker 1: make sense. And I think when you have a New
Speaker 1: England defense that's playing like they've been playing, uh, the
Speaker 1: teaser just makes a lot of sense to me. Um.
Speaker 1: Bottom line with with Minnesota, Tony is a three dollar bill.
Speaker 1: I know you've heard me say that before. This is
Speaker 1: that big example of the team that's just phony. Um.
Speaker 1: It's the time of the year where you start to
Speaker 1: look at that Pythagorean wins, um, and you look at
Speaker 1: their point differential. This is not a nine eight excuse me,
Speaker 1: NAT and two football team. They got a minus two
Speaker 1: point differential. And I get it they got blown out
Speaker 1: last week, but prior to last week, going into last week,
Speaker 1: their point differential was awful for an eight and one
Speaker 1: football team. UM. Bottom line, Uh, it doesn't get any
Speaker 1: more simpler than that. It's a fade against Minnesota coupled
Speaker 1: with the perfect storm of New England coming off a
Speaker 1: win like they did against the Jets. I was on
Speaker 1: the wrong side of that. In fact, I had the
Speaker 1: Jets and watched that point return trush my plus three
Speaker 1: and a half them plus four that I had on
Speaker 1: the game. Um. But still you get a win like
Speaker 1: that off of the revision opponent when it matters, not
Speaker 1: like the Jets of yesteryear, and it's great momentum rolling
Speaker 1: into this week, where on the flip side with Minnesota
Speaker 1: it's the opposite. You just got blown out. But I
Speaker 1: think that late game on Sunday, I mean on Thursday,
Speaker 1: is why this line is still on the Minnesota side favorite.
Speaker 1: I mean this should be a pick them. I really
Speaker 1: do think on a neutral field records aside, New England's
Speaker 1: the better football team, especially that defensive side of the football,
Speaker 1: They're gonna be able to shut them down. Uh, And
Speaker 1: I think they easily win this game. You don't need
Speaker 1: the points, but it's always nice to have a cushion,
Speaker 1: and why not take the eight and a half on
Speaker 1: a teaser. But yeah, I'll use the Patriots as my
Speaker 1: second pick. I really like New England. On Thursday, Christian
Speaker 1: darrisaw out again Piers once, so you I was just
Speaker 1: gonna I was just gonna ask him if he's concerned
Speaker 1: about going against a team that lost forty three because
Speaker 1: typically we see in the NFL. Yes, I wanted if
Speaker 1: there wasn't a Minnesota Vikings team that was rolling, like
Speaker 1: if they had outperformed the betting market for a number
Speaker 1: of weeks. So it's not as if like I expect
Speaker 1: them all of a sudden to be looked down on,
Speaker 1: like they're not being faded by the betting public. I
Speaker 1: didn't see that, Like they came out as a three
Speaker 1: point favorite against New England. Um, I don't think there's
Speaker 1: that rush the judgment as far as all this team, like,
Speaker 1: I think they're phony. I thought they were phony going
Speaker 1: into that game. I had Dallas irrelevant. Um. But I'm
Speaker 1: not afraid of that where it's a great point because
Speaker 1: usually I'm a huge mean reversionist I looked for in
Speaker 1: all sports because we all revert back to the mean.
Speaker 1: It's just just fact of life. Every thing does, every market, equities,
Speaker 1: crypto sports. It doesn't matter you go too far one way,
Speaker 1: It's gonna come back the other way. It always does.
Speaker 1: And that's why when you underperformed the betting market by
Speaker 1: five touchdowns, usually you expect the bounce back. But I
Speaker 1: think that it's a perfect situation. You're on Thanksgiving, you're
Speaker 1: that primetime night game, you're at home, you're giving less
Speaker 1: than a field goal, and on top of it, you're
Speaker 1: you know, eight win football team. God. I don't think
Speaker 1: they they got enough of correction off of that loss.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's been felt yet, Jeffrey. The thing
Speaker 1: I'm curious with New England is because I was close
Speaker 1: to taking New England are not gonna make my top
Speaker 1: three today? How much of what we've seen the last
Speaker 1: three games with New England. Is the fact that they've
Speaker 1: went played against Zach Wilson, Sam Ellinger, Zach Wilson. How
Speaker 1: much of that is that this defense which has been
Speaker 1: great in those three games, How much of that is
Speaker 1: that the defense really is that good? And how much
Speaker 1: of it is that those quarterbacks are just dreadful, dreadful, dreadful.
Speaker 1: And look, it's a pretty good case study because you're
Speaker 1: getting Kirk Cousins in a prime pop game right out
Speaker 1: of the shoot. So we're gonna we're gonna learn a
Speaker 1: lot this week about Look, Minnesota is what they are.
Speaker 1: They're gonna win the NFC North because everyone else sucks
Speaker 1: in that division. I I agree with Ace. I think
Speaker 1: they're fraudulent as well. But we're gonna learn a lot
Speaker 1: about the Patriots on on Thanksgiving Night because if they
Speaker 1: are legitimately good, they do go to Minnesota win that
Speaker 1: game real quickly. The a f C East, like we
Speaker 1: give it no respect, but it's the only team every
Speaker 1: single team is positive point differential, Like they may not
Speaker 1: be the most you know, the nine and one football team,
Speaker 1: so the eight that everyone's talking about or putting up
Speaker 1: a bunch of points, but every single one of those
Speaker 1: teams has a winning record and every one of them
Speaker 1: has a positive point differential. It's a competitive division. And
Speaker 1: looking at a team like New England, who's um, you know,
Speaker 1: five and two in conference to and one in that
Speaker 1: division and just sitting there at six and four and
Speaker 1: not getting much attention, I think there's a lot about
Speaker 1: you on a team like New England again, where they've
Speaker 1: lost that historical luster that they've had for decades, you know,
Speaker 1: the last fifteen plus years. For those wondering in the
Speaker 1: NFC East, where everybody has a winning record, the Giants
Speaker 1: are plus one in point differential in Washington is minus
Speaker 1: and nine ACE. I was gonna say this for the
Speaker 1: end of the show, but this is a tweet from A. J.
Speaker 1: Caldera twenty three because I've been promoting on a numbers
Speaker 1: game that you'd be on the megapod this week, and
Speaker 1: he said. Some of the bingo cards elections for VRS
Speaker 1: return include one, I love this board, They're great, to God,
Speaker 1: bless America. What a country? Three? What a country that's three? Fake?
Speaker 1: Is a three dollar bill? Did you say that earlier?
Speaker 1: FACS three? That wouldn't that's a bingo? And four he
Speaker 1: said prose, but not referring to athletes. You refer to
Speaker 1: pros all the time. Y's right, are afraid to athletes
Speaker 1: at all? He beats the Vegas Lifestyle Show. I think
Speaker 1: on that one. All right, your number three sir, All right,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take you into uh you know what, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna stick to prime time. I was gonna give you
Speaker 1: I'll share it anyway because I love to give out.
Speaker 1: I tell you I did. I bet the Buccaneers already
Speaker 1: and I also bet the first half under in that
Speaker 1: game sharing it out there, But instead I'm gonna take
Speaker 1: it a prime time Monday Night? Is that okay? If
Speaker 1: we go to Monday Night? Of course, because I bet
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I love Pittsburgh. And this is as simple
Speaker 1: as this. Let's not get into the deep boundingly. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of guys that are so much smarter than
Speaker 1: me out there that could come on and tell you
Speaker 1: all kind of data and stats and regurgitate all kind
Speaker 1: of stuff that isn't proprietarry, but what have you um? Anyway?
Speaker 1: But it's as simple as this. Who are the Colts
Speaker 1: to be favorite over anybody? It doesn't matter who it is, like,
Speaker 1: what in what world, should the Colts be coming in
Speaker 1: as a favorite. They've done nothing but underperformed. Let's not
Speaker 1: forget coming into the season, this team was expected to
Speaker 1: win ten football games, and that's the only reason there's
Speaker 1: still that. Maybe they're just unlucky, or maybe no, they're
Speaker 1: just terrible. They're a bad football team and they have
Speaker 1: no business being favor That to me is as simple
Speaker 1: as it gets, and I get it. Pittsburgh is who
Speaker 1: we thought they were. I love that go because they are.
Speaker 1: There are three and seven football team. They're one game
Speaker 1: under five hundred against the spread, kind of what you
Speaker 1: expect um, but they're in that underdog role. And I
Speaker 1: love that fact because there's just so much randomness in
Speaker 1: a sixty minute football game. We see it each and
Speaker 1: every week. And when you have a bad football team
Speaker 1: like the Indianapolis Colts in the favorites role, like in
Speaker 1: what world would I ever want to trade my money
Speaker 1: for that bet ticket? Like maybe if they're in an
Speaker 1: underdogar that could make that argument, But other than being home,
Speaker 1: which they're below five hundred at home, Like, what is
Speaker 1: there really to make them a favorite? To me, it's
Speaker 1: just that simple. It's just a fade against a bad
Speaker 1: football team that's favored because someone has to be I guess,
Speaker 1: And it's on Monday night football and they're at home.
Speaker 1: But I think again, the Steelers are in a great spot.
Speaker 1: It's a reason for them to show up. It's a
Speaker 1: prime time game. You're a young, hungry football team. You
Speaker 1: know you're not going to the playoffs. But it is
Speaker 1: a nice, nationalized, televised game that matters for them, and
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get their A game, and their
Speaker 1: A game, which for a three and seven team is
Speaker 1: good enough to beat a four and six team on
Speaker 1: any afternoon Like. It's not as if it's out the
Speaker 1: realm of possibility that a three and seven team beats
Speaker 1: a four and six team. So for me, it's as
Speaker 1: simple as that. Again, not to make it any harder
Speaker 1: than it needs to be. Indianapolis has no business being favored,
Speaker 1: even against the three and seven Pittsburgh Steelers. Give me
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'll take them on the money line. Points
Speaker 1: are puts, it drops down, um, But yeah, I give
Speaker 1: me the Steelers. It's fine time, Monday night on the
Speaker 1: money line, they win this game in Indianapolis. What do
Speaker 1: you think about Well, I'll tell you. It is the
Speaker 1: American Eagles take the lead against the Nathaniel Hacket of
Speaker 1: the college basketball coaching realm. That's Patrick Ewing. It's fifty
Speaker 1: three fifty two in the games memorial. My American Eagles
Speaker 1: are making it up all game plus Spain Spain. Just
Speaker 1: Spain just scored their sixth dying. As far as I will,
Speaker 1: I do want to say one thing about my boy
Speaker 1: Canny pick It. I haven't been real optimistic about Mr
Speaker 1: Pickett up until now. He did show some green shoots
Speaker 1: of optimism last week when he did play pretty well
Speaker 1: in the freezing cold tundra here in Pittsburgh. I did
Speaker 1: have a free parking at the River's. Most people did not,
Speaker 1: you know, game day they charged sixty bucks. Anyway, Uh,
Speaker 1: I will say that I like that. I like ass
Speaker 1: call air. It looks like a tomlinesque kind of ball
Speaker 1: game where he just grinds it done. He grinds it
Speaker 1: done until halftime, and he just keeps grinding and grinding.
Speaker 1: Tel Maddie Ice on third and eight at seventeen sixteen
Speaker 1: from the thirty four plus thirty four takes a sack
Speaker 1: and the Steelers have a chance to win. This guy, oh,
Speaker 1: my god. Did you did you happen to hear the
Speaker 1: ESPN promo for this game? No where it's it's Buck
Speaker 1: on the voiceover where it's Tomlin and the Steelers, big pause,
Speaker 1: like bigger than usual Saturday in the Colts, where it
Speaker 1: sounds like Buck is trying with all his might, even
Speaker 1: in the promo not to laugh at the fact that
Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday is coaching this game. Ryan pick it, catch
Speaker 1: the fever? What's your todd, I don't you know what
Speaker 1: I have. I'm just I keep looking at these games
Speaker 1: and I just don't like anything. But I'm gonna do this.
Speaker 1: And here's what I'm gonna do. If in doubt go
Speaker 1: to the song Miami Dolphins go over Ford to seven
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. They love to score. Two is in a
Speaker 1: Hall of Famer, but he throws the Hall of Famers.
Speaker 1: We're going over forty seven with the Hall of Famer
Speaker 1: Davis melt Okay, do you see what happened after you left?
Speaker 1: You see what happened to this thing? Yeah? You go
Speaker 1: back to over Miami against Houston. Miami is your over
Speaker 1: team extraordinaire in the National Football League. You cannot stop them.
Speaker 1: Those receivers are just absolutely ridiculous. Uh you know, if
Speaker 1: you put almost any quarterback with these guys with this,
Speaker 1: with Hill and then and Waddle, I mean, this is ridiculous.
Speaker 1: The weapons at Miami have. They score into the thirties
Speaker 1: every single game. Houston just had a terrible performance offensively.
Speaker 1: We have seen them show signs of life. Remember the
Speaker 1: game against the Giants two games ago where they were
Speaker 1: inside the tent about a thousand times and only ended
Speaker 1: up with sixteen points against Miami's defense, which is not
Speaker 1: that great. Why can't we get a thirty seven to
Speaker 1: I don't know, fourteen ballgame thirty seven to you know,
Speaker 1: thirty fourteen. That gets me over forty seven, So give
Speaker 1: me over forty seven. There you go. You've got your song,
Speaker 1: your Miami Dolphins song that everyone loves. You, got your
Speaker 1: yen's you're talking at So you got everything you need.
Speaker 1: And up and Spain scores their seventh I said on
Speaker 1: a on a numbers game this morning they might win
Speaker 1: by a touchdown. And then there it is, and there's
Speaker 1: still six there's still five, six minutes of stoppage time.
Speaker 1: I have costa Rica under a half. It was part
Speaker 1: of a parlay. So please keep no goals Costa Rica. Um, well,
Speaker 1: they're not going to score. This is please don't say that.
Speaker 1: Please take that back. I won't. They won't and has
Speaker 1: the lead and the gilly Ice Memorial. By the way, Patrick,
Speaker 1: did I die? Why did I die? Your soul is
Speaker 1: dying every day. Parents. I want to give you a
Speaker 1: little pro tip. You know how they have pro tips
Speaker 1: on visa. I'm not aware of those. Patrick Ewing ever,
Speaker 1: look maybe a very nice man, but it does not
Speaker 1: have the chops for college basketball coaching. This is just
Speaker 1: a sloppy basketball team. They've been sloppy for years. They're
Speaker 1: sloppier than than you've ever seen him. This year, Oh
Speaker 1: my god, Patrick, didn't Patrick, you have one year where
Speaker 1: they went winless in the Big East. Yes, but then
Speaker 1: the following year they won the Big East Tournament. And
Speaker 1: they because they got that lucky, They got that like
Speaker 1: lucky little run. But they're terrible. They really are terrible,
Speaker 1: and they will just drive you crazy with the ridiculous start.
Speaker 1: They should be winning this game by a hundred when
Speaker 1: they were Okay, okay, when people listen to this, the
Speaker 1: game's gonna be over. What do you have, Todd just
Speaker 1: getting out the American Plus twelve. I said it before
Speaker 1: I have American plus twelve. I was down seventeen in
Speaker 1: the first time. I was nervous, but Patrick Ewing brought
Speaker 1: me back. This is on Twitter. This is from Seawn Underscore.
Speaker 1: Gaff said best ace quote was when you were talking
Speaker 1: about a suspended Jamis Winston for his uber incident and
Speaker 1: a saying quote, you can't do that since when That's
Speaker 1: why I take lift hashtag sprinkle. There you go, that's awesome,
Speaker 1: that's so true. The tip, I thought, who's gonna say,
Speaker 1: because I'd always like to share a couple of pro TiO.
Speaker 1: Never pay all the money up front, never more than
Speaker 1: half the service is going to be absolutely terrible. It's
Speaker 1: gonna can't wait to get out the door. If you
Speaker 1: never want to pay off front. What are we referring
Speaker 1: to specifically? Wait again, he's I think he said pro tips.
Speaker 1: I think he's talking about transactions between those people. I
Speaker 1: believe those tips a literal pro tip. Yes, Jeff, Jeff,
Speaker 1: Jeff's too young to hear this stuff go ahead apparently
Speaker 1: so yeah, so I totally lost my train of thought.
Speaker 1: You know what, he had the money all of well,
Speaker 1: he's about to get married. He's about to he's about
Speaker 1: to stop the ol cart ordering here. That would have
Speaker 1: never happened. I don't only front. It would have been
Speaker 1: the best hour of low meanwhile, so I'll take ace
Speaker 1: plus two points in any transaction to Yeah, I think
Speaker 1: that's three for three on that. All right, So this
Speaker 1: line just moved moved on me while we while Todd
Speaker 1: was talking. But I really don't care. We're gonna it's
Speaker 1: the same game Todd is on. We're gonna lay the
Speaker 1: damn lumber with the Miami Dolphins against those Houston Texans.
Speaker 1: It's thirteen and a half now, and legitimately just got
Speaker 1: bed in the last five minutes, so but I really
Speaker 1: don't care. Um, the Dolphins can't be covered by anyone.
Speaker 1: The only games they've been able to be covered Hill
Speaker 1: and Waddle are the games that Skylar Thompson had to
Speaker 1: play and and Teddi Bridgewater had to play, and where
Speaker 1: the Jets with great corners were able to shut those
Speaker 1: guys down with bad quarterback play and the Vikings gave
Speaker 1: up a zillion yards they just kept him out of
Speaker 1: the end zone. But other than those two games, no
Speaker 1: one can cover these dudes. These dudes are so fast.
Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill is the offensive player of the year. I
Speaker 1: don't care what anyone else says. If you can get
Speaker 1: anything north of plus two fifty, that's a good bet. Still,
Speaker 1: Wattle is awesome, and the Houston Texans have given up,
Speaker 1: completely given up. He's totally worthless, totally worthless. And Miami, look,
Speaker 1: they're in a They're in a big time race in
Speaker 1: the AFC East. As A said earlier, all four of
Speaker 1: those teams, if all four of those teams that competent
Speaker 1: quarterback play, I would say all four of them would
Speaker 1: have a chance to actually make make a big run
Speaker 1: in the playoffs. Two of those teams don't have competent
Speaker 1: quarterback play. That's why New England and the Jets are
Speaker 1: clearly behind Miami and Buffalo in that division right now.
Speaker 1: But if Miami wants to play even three and a
Speaker 1: half quarters here, they're scoring thirty five points in this game.
Speaker 1: And the only reason I'm not following Todd and taking
Speaker 1: me over is Houston. Despite the fact that Miami's defense stinks,
Speaker 1: Houston could very easily put up a ten in this game.
Speaker 1: So I'd rather just lay the lumber. I'll take my Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: but David Smith, this is an outdoor game for Davis Mills, he's,
Speaker 1: as we know, horrible outdoors, now mediocre at home. Jeff
Speaker 1: has to rejigger Davis Mills thing. He's not mediocre at home.
Speaker 1: He's really good Gil when they play in white uniforms
Speaker 1: and um. By the way, the thing about Wattle and
Speaker 1: Uh and Hill, but you think about how people people
Speaker 1: revere Duper and Clayton. That was all Dan Marino, and
Speaker 1: you just think about, like, what are the two best
Speaker 1: what are the best duos in NFL history. It's gotta
Speaker 1: be it's gonna be Rice and Taylor, right, Swan and
Speaker 1: what do you in stalk in a bath? Swan and Stalworth.
Speaker 1: But like I really think like Hill and Wattle have
Speaker 1: the potential to be in that group. By the way,
Speaker 1: best trio of all time, Monk Clark Sanders, best quartet
Speaker 1: of all time, Let's see how good you are? No, No,
Speaker 1: best quartet a white house. I know I was kidding. Gibbons, Hill,
Speaker 1: Jefferies and Curtis Duncan with the oilers better. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: they were. They were very good. Up thirty two three.
Speaker 1: I believe in games being up. I believe that Uh
Speaker 1: yea their own actually won that game. I had the
Speaker 1: Bills minus the two and a half. Frank Reich came
Speaker 1: back beauty. Thank god they didn't have replay because DeAndre
Speaker 1: read Touchdow wouldn't accounted forty one thirty eight. Then the
Speaker 1: greatest comeback of all time. Do you know who else
Speaker 1: played that same day in the playoffs? Um, Washington did not.
Speaker 1: It was a Hall of Famer who died early, who
Speaker 1: Reggie White? And that the Eagles was the game right
Speaker 1: after that ball game. It was a great game. Well,
Speaker 1: first we had Indiana, Kentucky and college back Okay, okay, okay.
Speaker 1: Who did Who did Philadelphia play that day in the playoffs? Uh? Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: I don't remember. I just remember they were really good
Speaker 1: that year. That it was the Eagles of Reggie White
Speaker 1: and you couldn't block them. And uh that was a
Speaker 1: game right after that amazing. It was very simple. I'll
Speaker 1: make a quick here, Gil, so we're not continuing. Philadelphia
Speaker 1: beat New Orleans thirty six. Philly scored twenty six points
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter in that game to come from behind.
Speaker 1: And I don't remember that game at all. I was
Speaker 1: not alive yet, Jeff was not alive. You the greatest
Speaker 1: comeback in National Football League history three in the second half.
Speaker 1: We all remember where we were for that game. It
Speaker 1: was really impressive. Where were you remember? For sure? Not
Speaker 1: watching it. I don't remember Rent, so not definitely not watching.
Speaker 1: But I try to make that a happen. Honestly, that's
Speaker 1: the one thing. And in a lot of the people
Speaker 1: don't believe me, but I really try not to watch
Speaker 1: any of this stuff just because it makes you so biased,
Speaker 1: and after like doing it for as long as I have,
Speaker 1: I've won a game and lost the game every possible way.
Speaker 1: And because I met Vonume like it, thought like one
Speaker 1: game really doesn't matter. So I'd be sitting there like
Speaker 1: a crack addict looking at scores like eight like back
Speaker 1: in the day, picking up the score phone the call
Speaker 1: to hear him over and over again. Seriosely now I
Speaker 1: do kind of like just any other market. It's like
Speaker 1: I I buy suck. I don't cheer it in, like
Speaker 1: I'm not sitting there going yeah, tesla, yeah, go tesla.
Speaker 1: Right it goes, you sell it like I'm not cheering
Speaker 1: in Like, yes, I shorted you know who did like
Speaker 1: short last week? I shorted um JP Morgan, I shorted
Speaker 1: JP Morgan and next on mobile, like because I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna drop. But I'm not sitting there like cheering
Speaker 1: against them, like reading every day looking at the thing.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I just if you do something for
Speaker 1: so long, or you get past the why you're doing it,
Speaker 1: like I now do it for profit, So it's just
Speaker 1: a it's a little bit different, like you get past
Speaker 1: all the nonsense. You remember me and we've been doing
Speaker 1: this now for so long, Gilt. I was just thinking
Speaker 1: real quickly in the time of your podcast, like how
Speaker 1: how things have changed sported. It's like gam sports betting
Speaker 1: was almost was illegal everywhere. No one like no one
Speaker 1: the least wouldn't want to talk about it, and yet
Speaker 1: here we are now it's like they're just every commercial
Speaker 1: is about Parlay's and bet here, bet there, bet here,
Speaker 1: bet there draw. When we were growing up, it was
Speaker 1: like putting warning labels on cd s because it was
Speaker 1: like n w A. Now it's like weeks or on
Speaker 1: every corner like that. Everything just like change so quickly,
Speaker 1: So what I'm getting I just don't take it all
Speaker 1: so seriously. And that's why I try not to dive
Speaker 1: into watching this stuff as well, because I bet it seriously,
Speaker 1: and if you're doing it for entertainment, it's different, Like
Speaker 1: then have at it, have fun that it's different, But
Speaker 1: if you're doing it for profit, it's just not fun
Speaker 1: watching it. I don't know. Maybe I'm just different. I
Speaker 1: watch everything. I feel like you can learn, you can
Speaker 1: learn so much by watching. I'm just not wired that way.
Speaker 1: Dr Bobb used to say all the time he used
Speaker 1: to wear it. He used to wear it like as
Speaker 1: a badge of honor. He goes, gil, I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't watch any of it like I used to say too,
Speaker 1: I don't. I just disagree because what I see is this,
Speaker 1: and I've learned from M M A that, Like we've
Speaker 1: even know from the courts, like the legal system, the
Speaker 1: justice system has told us that the least reliable testimony
Speaker 1: is I witness, Like what we see and what's that
Speaker 1: really happening? It could be two completely different things. Our
Speaker 1: perception plays such a huge role where unlike with data
Speaker 1: and numbers, where it's irrelevant, like how you're feeling that
Speaker 1: second that you're watching it, Like it's a good debate,
Speaker 1: it's a good debate argue that Golosh. I argue for Goolosh,
Speaker 1: you've got to see and you've got to agree with
Speaker 1: agree with it's a Goolosh model because if you're just
Speaker 1: on the stats, you miss little certain things. For example,
Speaker 1: a team can be moving the ball two yards per
Speaker 1: play and then hit an eight one yard play and
Speaker 1: all of a sudden the stats look normal, and vice versa.
Speaker 1: You know, if you don't watch this American Georgetown game,
Speaker 1: you don't realize how that Patrick Ewing is as a coach. Also, no,
Speaker 1: I'm just kidding about that, but but but seriously, I
Speaker 1: do believe that. And also for in game and and
Speaker 1: I take your point that you can be biased, but
Speaker 1: if you've watched enough ball games, if you've watched enough
Speaker 1: ball game, I'm not talking about if you you watch recreationally.
Speaker 1: I'm talking about if you watch hundreds and hundreds and
Speaker 1: hundreds of games, and then you can put the stats
Speaker 1: of a game to the what it looks like in
Speaker 1: in in reality you can really pick stuff out. Is
Speaker 1: because you can see things. But how do you do that? Seriously,
Speaker 1: I think there's a great conversation for the listeners. Like
Speaker 1: what I'm saying is, give you example you want me
Speaker 1: to give you an example. Even if I'm learning vou
Speaker 1: and I'm only going to bet five sides today basketball,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bet five sides. So realistically, I should go
Speaker 1: back and watch the last three or four or five
Speaker 1: games or each five of those teams, right, and they're
Speaker 1: I bet you, I bet you if you had, if
Speaker 1: you had the time to do it, it would be
Speaker 1: very worth who does? But we don't, So then what's
Speaker 1: what's the point of watching any of it? Is? What?
Speaker 1: I will give you an example, give you an example.
Speaker 1: I'll give you an example of where I think it is.
Speaker 1: Here's an example of where I think it is, Gilly,
Speaker 1: if we have like a minute just to do this, Okay,
Speaker 1: For example, college football games, you're gonna see a lot
Speaker 1: of teams averaging upwards of nine yards of play. Okay,
Speaker 1: if you're watching those games and you're seeing the stats,
Speaker 1: and you're at like the twelve minutes left in the
Speaker 1: second quarter, and you see a team's averaging over nine
Speaker 1: yards to play, and you're watching the game, and you
Speaker 1: see why they're averaging nine and a half yards to play,
Speaker 1: you can bet their team total over and win at
Speaker 1: a ridiculously alarming rate. And I'm just giving you that
Speaker 1: as one example. But if you know what it looks
Speaker 1: like when a team is averaging nine yards to play,
Speaker 1: and it's not fictional because you've seen it so many times,
Speaker 1: you can take advantage of that. Gilly, do you would
Speaker 1: you would agree? I would agree with Todd, And I
Speaker 1: think it is I think it is a tried and
Speaker 1: true debate. I think it's a great one to have
Speaker 1: through the years. And what I was saying before Dr Bob,
Speaker 1: who's you know, pioneer and using analytics to predict sports.
Speaker 1: He used to wear it as a badge of honor.
Speaker 1: Probably still does. He said, Oh good, I don't watch.
Speaker 1: You know, I don't watch nearly nearly as much as
Speaker 1: you do. I had the hint, I had the hint
Speaker 1: that he probably watched more than he was letting on.
Speaker 1: But he thought it was like sort of a badge
Speaker 1: of honor. And I always used to say to my go,
Speaker 1: you know what, Bob, I'm not wired that way, and
Speaker 1: I believe the more that I watch it can only
Speaker 1: help me. Um, that's in games, the best market there is.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's it's I mean, where are you
Speaker 1: going to find a game? No? No, No, in games
Speaker 1: a different animal. That's a different that's what, that's why,
Speaker 1: that's why, why. That's like day trading. That's a completely
Speaker 1: different animal. You have betting. You're betting time, like specific
Speaker 1: moments in time, so you have to be in the moment.
Speaker 1: That's completely different. When we're betting a game on Tuesday
Speaker 1: that goes Sunday your swing trading. You're not day trading.
Speaker 1: You don't have to be right there on top of it.
Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. It's completely different. It's you either
Speaker 1: have an edge with your approach or you don't. It's
Speaker 1: kind of like an advantaged blackjack player. I could sit
Speaker 1: there and watch the dealer for eighteen hours. It's not
Speaker 1: gonna make me a winning blackjack player. I either haven't
Speaker 1: approach that beats the game, or I don't like you know,
Speaker 1: I understand your point. I understand your going to help
Speaker 1: me what I'm saying, that's mine. I think there's still
Speaker 1: new ones I'm trying to learn, but I want to
Speaker 1: like I'm a student of betting, and that's why I
Speaker 1: asked these because I respect you all your opinions so much.
Speaker 1: I like to learn and that I just think there's
Speaker 1: nuance even even even if you're not in game betting.
Speaker 1: I still think there are nuances there that if you
Speaker 1: don't watch the game, like especially in the NFL where
Speaker 1: everything is so tight, and you you start to pick
Speaker 1: up why Rabele can win games that you don't think
Speaker 1: he would otherwise win. You start to pick up why
Speaker 1: Tomlin can somehow find a way too with smoking mirrors
Speaker 1: be in the ballgame at the end of the game.
Speaker 1: You start picking up these little subtle clues. And that's
Speaker 1: if you're a wise watch the people are not going
Speaker 1: to get it. I agree with you on that. It's
Speaker 1: also like again like for like for Denver, for the
Speaker 1: Denver game, like packet thing is a perfectly the thing
Speaker 1: is the perfect example of this where if you're not
Speaker 1: watching the game and you look at the box score,
Speaker 1: it's like it was a coin flip game. Five things, Yeah,
Speaker 1: five things had to happen for Denver to lose, and
Speaker 1: six things ended up happening because quickly. So we don't
Speaker 1: keep going on. I'm just saying if you're if you're
Speaker 1: just following one or team five teams, I think it
Speaker 1: makes sense. I think if you're betting multiple markets, multiple
Speaker 1: sports and volume. It's just too big of a task
Speaker 1: to follow twenty different teams in five different betting markets
Speaker 1: and actually study the game while you're watching it, and
Speaker 1: then have the time to also analyze handicap the data
Speaker 1: you gather from that to then find an edge the
Speaker 1: next time they play. Well, I think if you just
Speaker 1: pick one team and religiously follow them, I think it
Speaker 1: makes sense. But again, if you're betting five different sports
Speaker 1: betting markets and betting twenty games, I just think it's
Speaker 1: too typical to grasp actionable information from all of them.
Speaker 1: Let me step in and end this. And this is
Speaker 1: what makes this sports betting such a fascinating canvas which
Speaker 1: to argue about. Um, there's many ways to skin the
Speaker 1: cat and and and one should do what works for them.
Speaker 1: See what you're doing. If you're winning, God bless you,
Speaker 1: you nailed it. That's so true. By the way, I'm
Speaker 1: not even I understand Ace's point. And it was over time,
Speaker 1: all right, we gotta move on. Last pick. Speaking of
Speaker 1: your comment about the Broncos, I'm fading the Raiders. I'm
Speaker 1: taking the Seahawks. I've been on them all year. I
Speaker 1: see no reason to uh go off that right here.
Speaker 1: So the Seahawks are laying three in the hook at
Speaker 1: home against the Raiders. I think Geno Smith and that
Speaker 1: Raider and that Seahawks running game just has its way
Speaker 1: with the Raiders. Um, they're not gonna be able to
Speaker 1: the Raiders, not gonna be able to stop the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: And I do think that they're able to stop the
Speaker 1: Raiders on the other side of the ball. I'll make
Speaker 1: it quick because we gotta go. We have a harder out,
Speaker 1: but Seahawks minus three and a half my number three pick.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the teasers. Teasers have have just absolutely
Speaker 1: sucked for for all of us Ace though we are
Speaker 1: we are required to come up with a two team
Speaker 1: six point teaser of the week. What would be it
Speaker 1: for you? Yeah? The one hasn't been good this year.
Speaker 1: It's just how it goes, man, That's why everybody's been
Speaker 1: getting killed that's been doing it. But I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: ahead and not long to get betters of a little
Speaker 1: more action. Let's go with the Eagles on Sunday night
Speaker 1: against the Green Bay. I know it's square to square
Speaker 1: as they come, but I think you get this Eagle
Speaker 1: team that does bounce back and gets the win at home.
Speaker 1: Bottom line, it's it's again square, but I think it
Speaker 1: makes sense. Uh. And then let's go ahead and tie
Speaker 1: them up with another and also low total. You want
Speaker 1: to look for a low total Carolina at Denver. Yeah,
Speaker 1: low total there thirty six and a half. We take
Speaker 1: Carolina at home all the way up the eight eight
Speaker 1: and a half. So let's go Carolina, let the touchdown
Speaker 1: and take the bird a little prime time action at home,
Speaker 1: just to get it done by the game out. I
Speaker 1: thought you were going to take New England because you
Speaker 1: loved him so much, but I wanted to give a
Speaker 1: little more stuff, all right, I was I was gonna
Speaker 1: say New England. Uh fits that parameter. Also New England
Speaker 1: or Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh. Also, you want to say something, Jeffrey, Okay,
Speaker 1: I thought you were waiting, all right, Dotty, I didn't.
Speaker 1: First of all, I didn't realize we had a hard at,
Speaker 1: and that if you would have told me that had
Speaker 1: a hard at, I went to continue with the conversation,
Speaker 1: but I thought it was an interesting conversation. I liked
Speaker 1: to apologize it was, but we can't go twenty minutes
Speaker 1: on it. No, I know, I'm apologizing. I'm saying I'm
Speaker 1: sorry for for for going too long. Had I known
Speaker 1: it wasn't hard out, I went too long anyways. Eagles
Speaker 1: minus one, I'm with Ace on that. I'm take my
Speaker 1: Enser's plus eight and a half. I think Tomlin's gonna
Speaker 1: do you know, you know what he does? You know
Speaker 1: what he does? You know what he does? Uh say,
Speaker 1: is there a Mike Tomlin stat any of us know? Oh? Yeah,
Speaker 1: they never had a losing record. That's right, Jeffrey, because
Speaker 1: he's as Stiller's up to eight and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: with everyone there, and then against my better judgment, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna push the Titans up the seven and a half.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm doing against the Cincinnati Bank. Why do
Speaker 1: you think that's against your better judge? Because the one
Speaker 1: thing that has happened this year and part of the
Speaker 1: reason that I think long teasers have blown up like
Speaker 1: they have good offenses have blown up teaser uh those
Speaker 1: teaser legs this year. So I'm a little bit concerned.
Speaker 1: It looks like Chase is gonna come back for Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: but Vybel blows up everything the other way because he
Speaker 1: just continues to win games with this mediocre roster he
Speaker 1: has in that I'm doing the Titans because I don't
Speaker 1: think they should have been the dogs. I think they
Speaker 1: should have been the one and a half point favorites instead.
Speaker 1: So I'm definitely taking the Titans up through the three
Speaker 1: and the seven, and I'm gonna take the Panthers just
Speaker 1: because i don't think the Broncos can blow them off
Speaker 1: the field. Sam Donald, right, So I'm going Titans Panthers.
Speaker 1: And by the way, the Broncos stat replaces the Matt
Speaker 1: Rulestat as the best stat of the year. Remember the
Speaker 1: Matt Rulestat when he was the coach of the Panthers
Speaker 1: that if if the other team scored seventeen or more points,
Speaker 1: they were like one in twenty six or one in
Speaker 1: twenty seven, and the Matt rule administration. The Broncos now,
Speaker 1: if they had scored eighteen points in regulation and all
Speaker 1: of their games this year, they would be nine and one.
Speaker 1: Oh man, God, is that bad? Instead they are they
Speaker 1: are they are just also ran team in the National
Speaker 1: Football League. And instead of being, uh, nine and one,
Speaker 1: what are they three and seven? The Broncos, Yeah, three
Speaker 1: and seven instead, God, I just want to throw something
Speaker 1: out here. Real quick. Then this now makes sense why
Speaker 1: the number moved into Miami. Game. Kyle Allen's gonna start
Speaker 1: for Houston this week. Kyle Allen started for Houston. There
Speaker 1: it is the Hall of Famers. The road He's getting
Speaker 1: text like, I'm starting to think Spain is better than
Speaker 1: Costa Rica. Um, let's see if there's any more. Oh man,
Speaker 1: the tweets are coming in all this stuff. Uh that
Speaker 1: Pepsi guy so freaking pump to have Johnny back been
Speaker 1: too damn long, if you ask me, I can't wait.
Speaker 1: And I hope somebody and I hope some of the
Speaker 1: conversations go sideways already has that's for sure. Uh, Let's
Speaker 1: see what else we got here? Do we learned? If
Speaker 1: we learned one thing, we learned about transactional, being transactional
Speaker 1: and never paying up front. That's the that's the you
Speaker 1: don't understand. That's the hall of fame of this show
Speaker 1: is the Vegas lifestyle show. That's how that's how ace
Speaker 1: I know about the history of the Let's see here
Speaker 1: do do do do do? Trying to see if there's
Speaker 1: any more here a whole bunch of people chiming in
Speaker 1: on the old Twitter machine. Oh Christy Anders said, Mike
Speaker 1: go white as the proper pronunciation, no matter how it's spelled.
Speaker 1: For your boy, all right. Final two questions of every
Speaker 1: megapod from the show's inception. Which of the big favorites
Speaker 1: is the most likely to lose? Outright? It's the first
Speaker 1: of the final two, and there are a lot of choices.
Speaker 1: Buffalo nine and a half point favorites on Thanksgiving at Detroit,
Speaker 1: Cowboys nine and a half point favorites at home against
Speaker 1: the Giants. These are massive favorites. Dolphins thirteen point favorites
Speaker 1: at home against the Texans, the Kansas City Omaha Chiefs
Speaker 1: fourteen and a half point favorites at home against the Rams.
Speaker 1: Niners nine and a half point favorites at home against
Speaker 1: the Saints. Should I keep the Eagles in the still
Speaker 1: a touchdown? Say the Eagles seven point favorites at home
Speaker 1: against the Packers. Which ace of those is most likely lose? Outright?
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Sam Francisco, Yeah, Saints hadn't won a road
Speaker 1: game yet here, hear me out. I mean they're born
Speaker 1: one road game excuse me so far this season. But
Speaker 1: they're the type of team that has the ability to
Speaker 1: like come back or even keep it close, like you've
Speaker 1: seen some of those games that they've lost. They put
Speaker 1: up points like you saw against even Cincinnati who put
Speaker 1: up thirty against them, they put up twenty six. Arizona
Speaker 1: put up forty two, they put up thirty four. Like
Speaker 1: they put points up and when the teams they were
Speaker 1: to put up points in a sixty minute game, they
Speaker 1: could beat an opponent, and especially a team like San
Speaker 1: Francisco who is coming off a couple of weeks where
Speaker 1: they've definitely outperformed the betting market at least two of
Speaker 1: the last three where they've covered the spread by more
Speaker 1: than two touchdowns. So you're looking a little overvalued as well.
Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot for a letdown for
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I'd like the Saints to uh, they beat
Speaker 1: the Rams last week, should roll here again. Not not likely,
Speaker 1: but probable, all right, San Francisco team most likely lose
Speaker 1: that right to the Saints. Todd, I am the same
Speaker 1: thing because with Jimmy G, every time he goes back
Speaker 1: to past, you're just terrified. You're just you're just terrified
Speaker 1: with the guy. If you bet on the forty niners
Speaker 1: and Jimmy G goes back. I just want them to
Speaker 1: hand the ball off. When I take the Niners, I
Speaker 1: turn around Jimmy and give it to the guy behind you.
Speaker 1: I don't know, I don't care who it is. Just
Speaker 1: run the football because every time that guy goes back
Speaker 1: to past, I am terrified. When I have the Niners,
Speaker 1: you know, despite their record, Cousins still is more terrifying
Speaker 1: for me because there's some about his ball that he
Speaker 1: throws that I'm like, that is never getting to the
Speaker 1: receiver and somehow it has gotten there. But but Jimmy
Speaker 1: g throws the ball and it bounces around and it
Speaker 1: tips off this guy's hand and it tips off that
Speaker 1: gud like at least telling wise, I think this team
Speaker 1: is the Jets of Jimmy Garoppolo to beat Aden two
Speaker 1: right now. But that's a different argument for a different day. Um,
Speaker 1: I am going to just stay on brand here and
Speaker 1: do like I do every single week with this question,
Speaker 1: and I'll the Bills to Detroit even though I don't
Speaker 1: really buy that. This week, yeah, I'm gonna say Bills
Speaker 1: to Detroit even though I don't really buy it either.
Speaker 1: But since someone asked the question, I mean, you have
Speaker 1: to give an answer. I Dallas was number four this
Speaker 1: week for me guild. I think Dallas is just gonna
Speaker 1: the Giants. I do too. By the way, if I
Speaker 1: had not picked the Bills, I would have taken the Eagles.
Speaker 1: Not because I think Green Bay is any good, but
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't know. The Eagles man look awfully
Speaker 1: shaking at me right now. All right, then the final question.
Speaker 1: We live in a bizarro world. Ace. We have to
Speaker 1: bet every single one of these games on the side,
Speaker 1: but we're allowed one free pass. What is the game
Speaker 1: you want no part of, sir, Bears Jets sticking out
Speaker 1: to me Jets because I got the way they burned
Speaker 1: me last week. So it's a little taste in my mouth. Also,
Speaker 1: um probably again, I try to keep my bias out
Speaker 1: of it, but obviously it's poked its head here. And uh,
Speaker 1: you have a three in a Chicago team on the road.
Speaker 1: Not thing it gets me excited about this game. I
Speaker 1: don't even know if it's uh the totals off. I
Speaker 1: see some places it was all just a game. I'm
Speaker 1: not uh interested in at all Jets Chicago especially do
Speaker 1: we know about justin field yet in this game? Eberfoosh
Speaker 1: claims he's back at practice today. Claims claims the total
Speaker 1: dropped four points, the lines moved, went up then down.
Speaker 1: It's just one of those ugly games. You forgot the
Speaker 1: most important question. What's the score? In the Vegas Memorial volume,
Speaker 1: it's the American Eagles sixty six to Georgetown. How sixty four?
Speaker 1: With just I'm int ask to know. You gotta turn
Speaker 1: it on. Folks. Really can't help yourself that I don't
Speaker 1: want any part of Tampa Bay Buccaneers Cleve Brownie's. I
Speaker 1: have no idea what I'm getting with this Buccaneer team.
Speaker 1: Is it? Is it tom Brady good? Is Tom Brady bad?
Speaker 1: Is Can the Buccaneers move the ball? Can they not?
Speaker 1: Are the Browns good? Sometimes they look amazing, sometimes they
Speaker 1: look terrible? Get out of game. That's my choice too.
Speaker 1: I have no clue about that game. By the way,
Speaker 1: it's also Jacoby should be pointed out, it's also Jacoby
Speaker 1: Brissett's flast game as quarterback. So literally, this could be
Speaker 1: the Jacoby Brissett I don't give a fuck game where
Speaker 1: he just like I'm throwing the ball like down, feel
Speaker 1: like he could do whatever he wants because he knows
Speaker 1: Deshaun is right, is coming in no matter what, so
Speaker 1: like he could just hit Kelly called the Kelly Bidland
Speaker 1: from a Numbers game called the Jacoby Brissett's Yolo Game.
Speaker 1: So I don't know, I don't know what you know
Speaker 1: to do with that. By the way, the Todd wishing
Speaker 1: of updates for an audience of one, my good friend
Speaker 1: Ben Florence, an American university grant will will love the updates, Yes,
Speaker 1: but we'll Ben like them in retroactively, will you like?
Speaker 1: It'll be fun? Tod met my my friend Ben in
Speaker 1: the past uh and introduced him to the popcorn upstairs
Speaker 1: at the Bowling Altum, the old popcorn Hack, the old
Speaker 1: popcorn Hack. But my my pick for this one is
Speaker 1: to charge is in the Cardinals because I don't know what.
Speaker 1: I don't know if what the Chargers still are, I
Speaker 1: think they're good, but why we will Ken all and
Speaker 1: be able to stay on the field. Mike Williams going
Speaker 1: to even make it through the game on against the
Speaker 1: Chiefs and then the Cardinals just enough of Kingsbury already
Speaker 1: but with no Kylie. If Kyler Murray doesn't play, uh,
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be shocked if this is a little bit tighter.
Speaker 1: But I also wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers win
Speaker 1: by a billion, So no nothing for me. Dr Bob
Speaker 1: just said to his teaser of the week, New England
Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh, and wrong with that? All right, gentlemen, we've
Speaker 1: done all we can do. For Todd Wish from his
Speaker 1: mom's cork addict, nice job out of you today, Todd.
Speaker 1: By nice, I mean nice. Jeff Porla, so here on
Speaker 1: the side, I don't hear you're saying anything to Ace.
Speaker 1: I thought Ace was fantastic. Casts persons, excuse me, we're
Speaker 1: crescendoing to Ace. What about like the finishing of a thought?
Speaker 1: Don't you get like, why did you move? Because you
Speaker 1: cast dispersions at me and Ace? Johnny Vegas runner, who
Speaker 1: upon whose shoulders? This show was built for so many years,
Speaker 1: eight years together on this show with Marco Um. Good
Speaker 1: for you, man, congratulations on all your success. Wager Talk UFC?
Speaker 1: What are you doing with UFC these days? I got
Speaker 1: two shows on Fight Pass, I got podcasts and a
Speaker 1: show we're starting our fifth season. But that show actually
Speaker 1: uh Ine and uh signed a deal for a podcast
Speaker 1: last year, so that's now about six seven months in.
Speaker 1: Enjoyed doing that, and the goal for twot twenty three
Speaker 1: is honestly more content. I haven't done enough the last
Speaker 1: year or two and there's just so much nonsense out there.
Speaker 1: Someone has to put a stop to it. I almost
Speaker 1: feel responsibility. There you go and produce a little more content.
Speaker 1: So that's the goal for I love a great seeing
Speaker 1: you man at Greek Underscore Gambler, and happy Thanksgiving into
Speaker 1: you and yours. Happy Thanksgiving to everybody who's listening. We
Speaker 1: appreciate you being so loyal to the pot throughout these years.
Speaker 1: Happy Thanksgiving, good luck with all your bets Thanksgiving, and
Speaker 1: on Sunday and Monday, NFL Week twelve, appreciate you listening.