WEBVTT - Beating the Book: 2022 Week 12 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.480 --> 0:00:12.000 Check it in Man Now down Man Wednesday morning, but 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:16.239 two and is the Beating the Book podcast for week 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:21.040 twelve in the National Football League. Day earlier this week 0:00:21.079 --> 0:00:24.200 because of Thanksgiving. So we want to get it in, 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:25.960 as they say, and do only they say get it 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.120 in for that context. You different context, but you know 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:31.280 what I mean with me Skill Alexander by the way, 0:00:31.320 --> 0:00:33.879 with me, Jeff Pearls in studio, Jeff Parlay, how you 0:00:33.880 --> 0:00:38.120 doing man? It's interesting interesting few days, I would say, 0:00:38.280 --> 0:00:42.280 the holidays. The World Cup is underway. Mike Michael White 0:00:42.400 --> 0:00:44.839 is starting for the New York Jets on Sunday. Now, 0:00:45.040 --> 0:00:48.520 Mike go White. One of the best Chris Andrew stories ever. 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:52.040 But it's a it's good to be here, as always, 0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:54.800 good to have you. Jeff is a hostedt Visa of course, 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:58.280 and Todd Wishnett from his mom's cork addict in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.120 who was actively bet in college basketball while this happens, 0:01:01.320 --> 0:01:03.000 we're betting the World Cup as well. How you don't 0:01:03.120 --> 0:01:07.119 Toddy you good? Hey, Hey, hey, I'm betting the American 0:01:07.120 --> 0:01:13.120 Georgetown Gilly Memorial. The ornament it's uh, it's based on 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:17.360 Gilly ICE's Washington, d C. Boyhood home. So they are 0:01:17.400 --> 0:01:19.319 they bringing him out at halftime, so we might have 0:01:19.400 --> 0:01:21.880 to lose him for bringing me out at halftime. It's 0:01:21.880 --> 0:01:24.560 the battle at Northwest d C. And ladies and gentlemen, 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.960 big treat this week is what has become an annual 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:32.120 appearance on this show. This show, Um, how can I 0:01:32.200 --> 0:01:35.480 how can I say it? Properly? Upon whose shoulders it 0:01:35.520 --> 0:01:38.000 has been built? Ladies and gentlemen. You know him as Ace, 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.800 you know him as VR, you know as Vegas Runner. 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:45.320 It's Ace Vegas Runner. How you do it? Man? Never better? Brother? 0:01:45.400 --> 0:01:48.440 And thank you. It is to thank you for using 0:01:48.480 --> 0:01:53.600 my proper pronouns before we start exciting. That's really excited. Great, 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:56.480 perfect time to have me on with Thanksgiving weekend because 0:01:56.520 --> 0:01:59.040 we have a couple of days. People are all from work. 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.720 They're looking at drop some bombs. We got nothing but 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:05.600 prime time, so perfect timing. Man, I'm excited and I've 0:02:05.640 --> 0:02:08.880 already unloaded, so we got some good, good gold to 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:11.560 share with the I missed that about you. I like 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:16.040 everything on this card. Thank you for using my proper pronouns. 0:02:16.600 --> 0:02:19.400 That's so awesome. By the way, I just we we 0:02:19.600 --> 0:02:22.359 try not to get political on this show. But you know, 0:02:22.440 --> 0:02:25.200 you know how your phone gets pushed articles. I was 0:02:25.240 --> 0:02:28.639 pushed an article about It's about some actress and some actor. 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:30.919 I don't know why I got pushed the article. I 0:02:30.960 --> 0:02:33.080 don't know why I read it, but I started reading it. 0:02:33.200 --> 0:02:36.760 And I consider myself a fairly intelligent human being. Um, 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:39.079 I could be wrong about that, but I started reading 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:42.120 it and I couldn't understand what I was reading, and 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:43.919 so I had to double back and read it again. 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.760 Why Because the guy that they were referring to in 0:02:46.760 --> 0:02:49.120 the article, they didn't refer to him as he and him. 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.840 They referred to him as they. So it required two 0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:54.040 readings for me to understand what I was reading. No, 0:02:54.240 --> 0:02:57.440 I ask you, are we gonna really do this? These 0:02:57.440 --> 0:02:59.280 are like a major publication, We're really going to do 0:02:59.280 --> 0:03:01.480 that with the pronounced in publication. I think if you're 0:03:01.520 --> 0:03:03.880 over three hundred pounds, you should be allowed to be there, 0:03:03.919 --> 0:03:08.400 because that's you're calling me over three hundred pounds what 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:13.960 I used to be over three hundred pounds. So I 0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:15.919 feel like I want to continue to have the right 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.480 to call myself they because you were more than one person. Yeah, 0:03:19.600 --> 0:03:21.960 and so the fact that you know a lot of 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:24.200 times you say, oh, well we have this team in 0:03:24.240 --> 0:03:26.000 the first half, so you know you want to be 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.320 a week as opposed to h an. I not not 0:03:29.520 --> 0:03:31.200 really what I think they were going for in the 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:33.400 R hole, but I understand what I was just I 0:03:33.480 --> 0:03:36.400 was just joking. But over three hundred. By the way, 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:38.800 just so you know, in the over three hundred division, 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:41.640 I was in the top ten worldwide in tennis over 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:44.560 three hundred, and I've lost that designation now that thin 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:46.400 as I've told as you've told us before, what is 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.960 your current weight to wish? What is your current right 0:03:49.000 --> 0:03:51.880 around two oh three two o four? All right? Good 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:54.280 for you, good for him? Is right? All right, let's 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:57.640 do this Thanksgiving three days, three games on Thanksgiving, of course, 0:03:58.120 --> 0:04:00.760 leading into a full slate of week twelve games. We start, though, 0:04:01.120 --> 0:04:02.560 with a couple of things we are that we sort 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:04.560 of added to the show since you've been here with us, 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:07.040 which is and I think I already know the answer 0:04:07.080 --> 0:04:11.400 to this, the dumbbell of the week. Itimous. I'd like 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:14.360 to believe you you want you want to handle it time, 0:04:14.400 --> 0:04:18.040 because I think this this hacket has got to go. 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.440 I've had enough for from the you can't get to 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:23.480 play in on time. Okay, your own tea, your own 0:04:23.600 --> 0:04:26.960 fans were counting down the play clock earlier in the season, 0:04:27.320 --> 0:04:30.800 and now, okay, first of all, before we get into 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:33.800 the one that's just gonna drive me crazy, there was 0:04:33.839 --> 0:04:35.640 a point, and I believe in the first half of 0:04:35.720 --> 0:04:38.640 it was holding. It was either first in twenty or 0:04:38.720 --> 0:04:42.240 second and seventeen. He took first in twenty. That's not 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:46.520 a good option, folks, I forgot about seventeen is better 0:04:46.600 --> 0:04:49.800 than first in twenty. What are you doing? That is 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:53.120 not that hard to figure out. You should know that 0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.320 by watching any football game that first in twenty is 0:04:56.360 --> 0:04:58.440 not as good as second and seventh. Okay, that's whatever. 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.320 Even the announcer, even the ouncer figured that out at 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:03.520 the time, which they're usually not present to do so, 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.720 but he did. I'll let that go now. The second 0:05:06.720 --> 0:05:10.400 thing is Melvin Gordon pretty much fumbles every time he 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:12.919 touches the ball. Is certainly around large men on the 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:16.599 interior of an offensive or defensive line. Maybe let's not 0:05:16.640 --> 0:05:18.480 give him the ball every time and inside the five 0:05:18.560 --> 0:05:20.160 yard lights so he can give you a heart attack. 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:23.560 And somehow his own team gets hold on hold on, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:25.719 hold on, let's just give context. You are referring to 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:27.840 the end of the first half, Denver was up ten 0:05:27.880 --> 0:05:31.080 to seven. They actually had its second and goal at 0:05:31.080 --> 0:05:33.400 the excuse me, was second and two at the four 0:05:33.560 --> 0:05:35.480 second and I believe it was second and two at 0:05:35.480 --> 0:05:37.960 the four. No, second and goal at the four something 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:39.960 like that. Anyway, they were in a very favorable position 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:42.600 and on the third down play Melvin Gordon fubble, Denver 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:44.000 was lucky enough to recover it, and then they got 0:05:44.040 --> 0:05:47.160 their field goal blocks. So, yes, that was that unbelievable. 0:05:47.160 --> 0:05:49.880 And by the way, he then he then he then 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:53.479 was cut, we should finish. He then was cut right after, 0:05:53.720 --> 0:05:56.320 you know, the next day. So that's part of the 0:05:56.360 --> 0:06:00.000 story too. Okay, whatever, It's just another time they were 0:06:00.040 --> 0:06:02.400 inside the five yard line and they don't score, which 0:06:02.440 --> 0:06:05.080 is maybe put you know, that's only happened eight hundred 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:07.720 times this year. Now. The worst is at the end 0:06:07.760 --> 0:06:11.320 of the game. It's third down with like a minute 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.200 fifty five. We've seen this a thousand times, no time 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:18.800 outs left for the Raiders. The minutes exactly, run the ball, 0:06:18.839 --> 0:06:21.440 take the sack, do whatever you have to do, and 0:06:21.480 --> 0:06:23.880 the Raiders get the ball. Back with one fifteen no 0:06:24.080 --> 0:06:26.719 time outs, very deep in their own end, and they've 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:28.200 got to get a field go to tight. Now, I'm 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:29.800 not saying that they're not going to get a field goal. 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:32.080 Maybe they will, maybe they won't, but you certainly want 0:06:32.080 --> 0:06:33.920 to make sure you get rid of the forty five seconds, 0:06:33.920 --> 0:06:36.320 and of course they Russell Wilson rolls out throws the 0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:39.279 incomplete passed. Now the Raiders have all kinds of time, 0:06:39.720 --> 0:06:41.040 and of course you know, they go down and they 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.000 almost got the touchdown to win the game right there. 0:06:43.320 --> 0:06:46.000 Of course they end up losing the game. But anyways, 0:06:46.040 --> 0:06:49.360 the point is Mr Nathaniel Hackett must be a very 0:06:49.440 --> 0:06:51.680 nice guy. I don't know. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:53.960 The bottom line is he's not ready to be a 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.600 head coach in the national football You forgot one, Todd, 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.640 you forgot another one. So on that on that Raiders 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.960 dry after after Russell Wilson threw the incomplete pass. So 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:06.400 the Raiders quickly matriculate downfield like three passes, right, they 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:10.000 end up first in goal at the seven and and 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:13.440 so so i I'm taking notes right for guessing lines, 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:15.480 I'm taking notes. So I turned my head away and 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:19.360 I'm assuming, God forbid, I assume with Hackett. I'm assuming 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.440 that the Raiders spiked the ball to to to set 0:07:22.520 --> 0:07:25.560 up a second in goal. No, the Broncos called the 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:31.240 fucking time out. Time to remember, the Raiders didn't have 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:32.960 any time outs, which means there was going to be 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:35.560 at least another five ten ten second runof Plus they're 0:07:35.560 --> 0:07:37.080 gonna lose it down because they're gonna have to spec 0:07:37.120 --> 0:07:41.640 the ball just like you said. So that's increditable, incredible management. 0:07:42.920 --> 0:07:44.800 He's got to go. You're right, he's got to go. 0:07:45.320 --> 0:07:48.360 I mean, look, I'm sure that maybe he's a good coach, 0:07:48.400 --> 0:07:50.120 maybe he's a smart guy. I don't know. But he's 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:52.320 not ready yet. He's he's so bad though, And this 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.560 will getting to the betting that legitimately, when you're handicapping 0:07:56.560 --> 0:07:59.840 a Broncos game, you have to for a moment consider 0:08:00.040 --> 0:08:03.120 his impact. You really do. You're like, this guy might 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.880 be worth negative two points. You really will When when 0:08:06.920 --> 0:08:08.480 when I took him, I said I don't want to 0:08:08.520 --> 0:08:10.600 take him. I don't want to take him. I don't 0:08:10.600 --> 0:08:12.480 want to take him. Fifty times I said I don't 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:13.920 want to take and then of course I took him 0:08:14.040 --> 0:08:16.560 to and of course you know I deserved everything I get, 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:20.240 So there you go. You know, no, not to bet 0:08:20.280 --> 0:08:22.720 on Nathaniel Hackett. It's really not that hard, folks, It's 0:08:22.800 --> 0:08:26.320 really not that hard. He's been swept by Josh McDaniels. 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:29.440 The Raiders have sixty six PERCENTATOR wins this year against 0:08:29.440 --> 0:08:32.000 the Broncos. It's all you need to know. Don't short 0:08:32.080 --> 0:08:34.120 change it at sixty six points. Excuse me that I 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:38.040 forgot the obvious points, the the decimal they're we're gonna get. 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:42.760 We're gonna get sixty six fast off the math people again. Sorry, yes, 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.560 you keep doing that, all right? And then, um, what 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:47.440 do we do after that? Oh? Yeah, and just take 0:08:47.440 --> 0:08:48.880 it quick. I just have I have a quick end 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:50.559 game that I want to talk about. We talked about 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:56.079 this on text a little bit. The the Chiefs Charger game. Uh, 0:08:56.120 --> 0:08:58.640 there was ten thirty four to go in the second quarter. 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.360 The Chargers are down third team ten, they're getting the ball. 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:03.720 They're also getting the ball to start the second half 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:07.160 as well. At that moment, I got plus four and 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:09.280 a half on the Chargers. I loved it because of 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:11.280 the fact I saw the Chargers are moving the ball. 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:13.439 It's hard in the NFL to beat a team by 0:09:13.440 --> 0:09:15.120 four and a half if the other team can move 0:09:15.160 --> 0:09:17.720 the ball. It certainly looked like the Charges were gonna 0:09:17.720 --> 0:09:19.240 be able to move the ball. Plus I had all 0:09:19.280 --> 0:09:22.079 the favorability of them getting the ball right then also 0:09:22.080 --> 0:09:24.040 getting the ball to start the second half. I just 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:25.760 thought four and a half was too much. Took the 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:28.080 four and a half, ended up getting home. But I 0:09:28.080 --> 0:09:30.800 think a bigger issue, and it was something you talked 0:09:30.800 --> 0:09:33.959 about that you had Tennessee on Saturday again, I mean 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:39.760 had South Carolina against Tennessee. Because remember, folks, the algorithms 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.960 are all based on the pregame number. So in the 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.880 South Carolina Tennessee game, or even in this football game 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:47.559 that I was just talking about with the Chiefs, it 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.920 was plus twenty two before the game South Carolina. If 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:54.280 South Carolina can move the ball at will, which they could, 0:09:54.720 --> 0:09:57.040 you're not covering twenty two, you're not covering eleven, you're 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.920 not covering twelve. You may not even win the game. 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.960 They didn't win the game. And and plus ten plus 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:05.199 eleven plus five plus seven, all those pluses were available, 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:07.600 and you were you were pounding him. So you know, 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:09.840 that's one thing you need to know about in game. 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:11.480 I did a whole rant on that yesterday on the 0:10:11.559 --> 0:10:15.079 Numbers Game, which is exactly what you said. At one 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.400 to seven, I go in there and I'm like, well, 0:10:17.800 --> 0:10:19.760 let me suspend my thought for a second about the 0:10:19.760 --> 0:10:21.720 pre flop number, the twenty two and a half. What 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.840 ought South Carolina be right? What should they be right now? 0:10:25.120 --> 0:10:27.000 And you go in and because as you said, it's formula, 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.319 it's derivative the algorithms derivative of the pre flop. They 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:31.840 were plus five and a half, and they were still 0:10:31.840 --> 0:10:34.720 plus two thirteen or plus two twenty on the money line. 0:10:34.920 --> 0:10:37.240 I grabbed the money line when they're up twenty one 0:10:37.240 --> 0:10:39.760 to seven. I grabbed it again when Tennessee had a 0:10:39.880 --> 0:10:43.160 had a fourth and goal down seven. Tennessee ended up 0:10:43.160 --> 0:10:45.840 converting that, by the way. But then when South Carolina 0:10:45.880 --> 0:10:48.640 went back up to fourteen, bet him again at north 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.199 of two dollars. Then it was twenty eight to seventeen, 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:55.400 excuse me, fourteen, Bet them at plus one sixty two. 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:57.800 Then when it was seventeen, bet him on the on 0:10:57.840 --> 0:10:59.800 the on the spread at plus three and a half. 0:10:59.840 --> 0:11:03.000 Any to your point, those are the opportunities in betting 0:11:03.559 --> 0:11:05.840 because so because of the nature of a podcast, we 0:11:05.880 --> 0:11:07.880 have to talk about everything pre flop. But the reason 0:11:07.920 --> 0:11:09.520 we bring up in game is because when you look 0:11:09.559 --> 0:11:12.000 at your betting pie at the end, what you actually 0:11:12.040 --> 0:11:15.640 win on pre flop is just a portion of that pie. 0:11:15.960 --> 0:11:18.280 You've got to be present for those in game opportunities. 0:11:18.679 --> 0:11:21.200 There was never a better example than that South Carolina 0:11:21.240 --> 0:11:23.680 Tennessee game. And the more you can recognize that and 0:11:23.679 --> 0:11:25.880 the more you can be aggressive and pounds. Now, by 0:11:25.880 --> 0:11:29.440 the way, it might not have worked right got closed dogs. 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:33.800 Dogs fade sometimes, but sometimes they the more you if 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:35.880 I could just finish, the more you put yourself in 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:38.640 those positions, right, the better off you're gonna be. Right. 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:41.800 That's especially especially if you get to keep some points 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:43.920 still for them to fade late, you know what I mean, 0:11:44.040 --> 0:11:47.120 because sometimes these dogs do fade. But you could pretty 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:49.440 much tell in that game this is gonna be a 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:51.920 close game because South Carolina is not getting stopped the 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.640 whole time. So anyways, it's just something interesting. And I 0:11:55.679 --> 0:11:58.880 thought that the Chargers, uh you know, Chargers Chiefs game 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.040 was a perfect example of that, that the Chiefs weren't 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:02.760 going to dominate that game if they're not going to 0:12:02.800 --> 0:12:05.720 stop the charges every time. So I started out this 0:12:05.920 --> 0:12:08.800 NFL season on fire. Through nine weeks on this show, 0:12:08.800 --> 0:12:12.280 I was twenty and seven, and I have just screeched 0:12:12.280 --> 0:12:14.840 to a halt. I lost to fourteen point leads two 0:12:14.840 --> 0:12:16.920 weeks ago, and then this past week one, you didn't 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:19.560 deserve one loss. One loss you in, Jeffrey, I have 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:21.679 to give you both, and then this is not deserve 0:12:21.800 --> 0:12:24.640 And then and then this week we lost on the 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:27.680 Jets and the Broncos, or I did on both of 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:30.440 those teams. So I just feel like the PLCO chip 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:34.000 has just aggressively gone against me. Another oh and three 0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.080 for me? What else for everybody? Gilly moves to twenty 0:12:37.120 --> 0:12:39.640 and thirteen with his oh and three didn't deserve much 0:12:39.679 --> 0:12:42.840 better in the Patriots game. Jeffrey moves to nineteen and fourteen, 0:12:42.840 --> 0:12:46.000 just a game back, and I am eight. I got 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:49.520 it right, Jeffrey. I wanted two last week at one 0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:52.360 and two, and I am at eighteen and fifteen, just 0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:56.040 two games back. Um, the guests seat had a terrible 0:12:56.080 --> 0:12:58.679 week as well, seventeen and sixteen. Now for the guest 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:02.880 so en eighteen seventeen, that's where we are now, yeah, exactly. 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.560 And the teasers, you guys each have four after the 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:09.360 Vikings decided not to show up in Dallas. Four wins, 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.600 seven losses. I'm to eight and one on the teaser 0:13:11.640 --> 0:13:13.520 and the guest seat is still seven and four and 0:13:13.559 --> 0:13:16.240 the teasers, the guest chair on the teaser has been awesome. 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:20.720 All right, Ace, We we apologize for the preamble there, 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:22.920 but that's uh, that's how we start each show. Now, 0:13:23.000 --> 0:13:27.840 so let's get just be in Canada plus one as 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:31.079 we speak. Wait, wait, say again again. We're just setting 0:13:31.080 --> 0:13:33.480 in Canada in the World Cup at plus one as 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:35.680 we speak. But it's that time of day where things 0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:39.080 are coming in so early. So no, I'm listening to 0:13:39.160 --> 0:13:42.360 everything you're saying, but also to move a little bit 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.079 as we're getting through. I have the draw in that 0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.079 game after this, i got plus one plus one minus 0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.000 one oh five. I'm actually on the same thing aces 0:13:51.080 --> 0:13:53.360 even though this podcast will be out of right as 0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.560 the game starting, I was gonna say, all right, um, okay, 0:13:56.679 --> 0:13:59.160 so let's usually we say hey, any thoughts on the 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.880 Thursday night game, because we do this Thursday morning. Let's 0:14:01.920 --> 0:14:05.800 just sort of throw in the three Thanksgiving games and 0:14:06.080 --> 0:14:08.960 really one of them. Yeah, so maybe we should just 0:14:08.960 --> 0:14:10.400 get into the best bets and see if any of 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:13.920 the Thanksgiving games qualify. ACE, we start with you. You 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:17.800 know the format better than anybody. What's your first place there? Hey, listen. 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:20.640 I bet all three games on Thursday, I really did, 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:23.200 and two of them I really liked the sides. I'll 0:14:23.200 --> 0:14:25.960 tell you. First off, I bet the Buffalo bills immediately 0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:28.720 at minus nine. I bet him again at minus nine 0:14:28.760 --> 0:14:31.280 and a half. Um. I know a lot of betters 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:34.520 are looking to use them in a teaser. I if 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:37.480 it's not a long teaser, I just don't do it. 0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:40.560 As badly as I want to tease them down. Maybe 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.200 you six and a half points or seven points, I 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:45.920 just don't do it. Um. I try to keep things 0:14:45.960 --> 0:14:49.640 simple and stick to certain rules that that at least 0:14:49.680 --> 0:14:54.560 I know historically had been profitable. Unless there's some data 0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:58.480 resent with a big enough sample size to change my mind, 0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.360 I just don't do it. I I try to keep 0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.200 it simple. Um. So for me, I wanted to use 0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.920 Buffalo obviously and a teaser. Wanted to use Dallas in 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.840 a teaser, but the smart books that move them up, 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:13.600 they just don't qualify for me. For other betters that 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:17.080 are a little more out on the risk curve. I 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:20.200 think it's a it's an obvious move to use Buffalo. Listen, 0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.480 they're a number one power rated team in the NFL. 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:27.080 I maybe what some of you guys made disagree, but 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.160 I think their favor over anyone over a neutral field. 0:15:30.320 --> 0:15:32.200 I don't think they win the Super Bowl. In fact, 0:15:32.200 --> 0:15:34.640 I bet a future on Kansas City and the future 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.160 on the Dallas Cowboys about a week and a half 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:40.320 back because in football, again, it's not a subven game 0:15:40.360 --> 0:15:43.680 by game series where a higher probability of the cream 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:46.400 rising to the cup the top and in one game 0:15:46.440 --> 0:15:49.280 sample size, and there's a lot of randomness in Bob. 0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:52.880 So again, Buffalo maybe the best team power rating wise, 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:56.080 but I don't think they'll be able to get it done. 0:15:56.080 --> 0:16:00.320 They just have shown that even with all that coality 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:03.840 on paper, they just lose games they shouldn't. You shouldn't 0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.040 have lost against Minnesota, you shouldn't have lost at the Jets, 0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:09.440 you shouldn't have lost that Miami. Like, if you're a 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:13.280 dominant team, you win those games. You don't lose close 0:16:13.360 --> 0:16:17.280 games to bad teams. And that's why you're still getting 0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:21.840 some value on anotherwise team that would be so um 0:16:22.520 --> 0:16:26.520 out of the value. Like for value betters, you would't 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.480 even consider them um because they're going to be bet 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.640 on weekend and week out. There's the premium attached. Obviously, 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:37.440 it's something everyone talks about, UM. And that's why I 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:41.000 do think you get value still on the Buffalo Bills. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:44.200 And also again the team with the highest point best 0:16:44.320 --> 0:16:49.760 point differential in the NFL also reflects that high power rating. UM. 0:16:50.480 --> 0:16:52.880 I just don't think you fade them here against the 0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:56.800 Detroit team where it's the perfect storm. They've outperformed the 0:16:56.840 --> 0:17:00.200 betting market of late, and why shouldn't they. They went 0:17:00.320 --> 0:17:02.960 over a stretch of five or six weeks where they 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:07.919 underperformed it so badly. I mean they underperformed by twenty 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:11.800 four points against New England, eleven points against Dallas, six 0:17:11.840 --> 0:17:14.679 points against Seattle. So in those three weeks they underperformed 0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.640 the betting market by forty three points. Of course, it's 0:17:18.680 --> 0:17:21.360 going to come back the other way towards the mean, 0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:25.120 and that's why they covered three straight games. But as 0:17:25.160 --> 0:17:29.400 you can see, two of those were coin flips. It's Thanksgiving. 0:17:29.840 --> 0:17:33.199 Detroit will gets some loved I think it's the wrong side. 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:37.520 Bet Buffalo. They win this one easily, double digits, turns 0:17:37.560 --> 0:17:40.520 into a blowout in the second half. Alright, Ace goes 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.160 with the Buffalo Billiards. What what are you giving him? 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.919 Nine and a half, nine and a half, nine and 0:17:46.960 --> 0:17:53.159 a Thanksgiving early Thanksgiving warning. The Bills nine and a 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:55.560 half point favorites on the road against the Lions, who 0:17:55.560 --> 0:17:58.399 have the longest winning streak in the NFC currently at 0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:05.760 three games to Detroit. Jeez, what do you got? I'm 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.119 gonna go under forty five and a half. Is that 0:18:08.200 --> 0:18:10.880 what you have in the Dallas game? Let me check 0:18:11.040 --> 0:18:13.800 how he's back on the Dallas unders again. I got 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:15.520 forty five and a half for the thought, I got 0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:18.359 forty five and a half. Yeah, okay, give me under 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.760 forty five and a half in the Dallas Giants game. 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:24.040 You know, as I've said all season, I think the 0:18:24.080 --> 0:18:28.119 most dominant portion of any football team this year is 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:32.480 the Dallas front four and pass rush. It's been unbelievable. 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:35.679 I was worried that they were going to get to Cousins, 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:37.960 which is why I didn't like the Vikings last week 0:18:38.000 --> 0:18:42.840 because of Cousins statuesque ability and you know, that that 0:18:43.000 --> 0:18:46.880 is exactly what happened to Dallas Cowboys. Pass rush might 0:18:47.119 --> 0:18:50.320 wreak havoc on Mr Daniel Jones as well. I don't 0:18:50.359 --> 0:18:54.240 see the Giants being a huge offensive team, and this 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:56.480 is the kind of team that Dallas just kind of, 0:18:56.560 --> 0:18:59.359 you know, just eats up and spits out. It is 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:02.120 a divisional game, so I'm hoping on the Giants being 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.359 able to keep the score down. Dallas just had a 0:19:04.359 --> 0:19:07.000 big scoring game, you know, winning whatever what was the 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:09.760 final thirty seven three, forty three, whatever the final store was, 0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:13.320 So I'm hoping that they can. You know, typically you 0:19:13.320 --> 0:19:16.119 don't see teams, you know, scoring thirty seven forty points 0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:18.680 two weeks in a row. So I'm thinking Dallas might 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:21.120 slow down a bit here on offense, and I think 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:23.360 they're gonna be great on defense. I think that's the one, 0:19:23.800 --> 0:19:25.760 the one side of the ball you can really count 0:19:25.800 --> 0:19:30.320 on with the Cowboys. So you know, I think the 0:19:30.320 --> 0:19:33.320 Giant's gonna get more than fourteen points here. I don't 0:19:33.400 --> 0:19:36.400 see it. Thirty four teen still gets you under give 0:19:36.440 --> 0:19:38.640 me under forty five and a half with the Dallas 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:46.680 cow Girls. Jeffrey Parlay, This card is brutal this week 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:48.840 you know my things. I'm like a this this of 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:50.920 all the weeks to have a so on I never 0:19:51.040 --> 0:19:53.680 like a lot guessing lines. I was like, I like, wait, 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.000 so I'm the complete opposite this week because everything with Jeff, 0:19:57.320 --> 0:19:59.399 everything came within a point of what I what I 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:01.240 would have made it this week for the most part, 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:05.360 and the biggest differential that I had was and I'm 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.760